Daily Papers

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

Self-supervised neural language models have recently achieved unprecedented success, from natural language processing to learning the languages of biological sequences and organic molecules. These models have demonstrated superior performance in the generation, structure classification, and functional predictions for proteins and molecules with learned representations. However, most of the masking-based pre-trained language models are not designed for generative design, and their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret their design logic. Here we propose BLMM Crystal Transformer, a neural network based probabilistic generative model for generative and tinkering design of inorganic materials. Our model is built on the blank filling language model for text generation and has demonstrated unique advantages in learning the "materials grammars" together with high-quality generation, interpretability, and data efficiency. It can generate chemically valid materials compositions with as high as 89.7\% charge neutrality and 84.8\% balanced electronegativity, which are more than 4 and 8 times higher compared to a pseudo random sampling baseline. The probabilistic generation process of BLMM allows it to recommend tinkering operations based on learned materials chemistry and makes it useful for materials doping. Combined with the TCSP crysal structure prediction algorithm, We have applied our model to discover a set of new materials as validated using DFT calculations. Our work thus brings the unsupervised transformer language models based generative artificial intelligence to inorganic materials. A user-friendly web app has been developed for computational materials doping and can be accessed freely at www.materialsatlas.org/blmtinker.

In this paper, a novel self-supervised learning (SSL) method is proposed, which learns not only representations but also representations uncertainties by considering SSL in terms of variational inference. SSL is a method of learning representation without labels by maximizing the similarity between image representations of different augmented views of the same image. Variational autoencoder (VAE) is an unsupervised representation learning method that trains a probabilistic generative model with variational inference. VAE and SSL can learn representations without labels, but the relationship between VAE and SSL has not been revealed. In this paper, the theoretical relationship between SSL and variational inference is clarified. In addition, variational inference SimSiam (VI-SimSiam) is proposed, which can predict the representation uncertainty by interpreting SimSiam with variational inference and defining the latent space distribution. The experiment qualitatively showed that VISimSiam could learn uncertainty by comparing input images and predicted uncertainties. We also revealed a relationship between estimated uncertainty and classification accuracy.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

While electroencephalogram (EEG) has been a crucial tool for monitoring the brain and diagnosing neurological disorders (e.g., epilepsy), learning meaningful representations from raw EEG signals remains challenging due to limited annotations and high signal variability. Recently, EEG foundation models (FMs) have shown promising potential by adopting transformer architectures and self-supervised pre-training methods from large language models (e.g., masked prediction) to learn representations from diverse EEG data, followed by fine-tuning on specific EEG tasks. Nonetheless, these large models often incurred high computational costs during both training and inference, with only marginal performance improvements as model size increases. In this work, we proposed EEG representation learning framework building upon Generative Diffusion Model (EEGDM). Specifically, we developed structured state-space model for diffusion pretraining (SSMDP) to better capture the temporal dynamics of EEG signals and trained the architecture using a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model. The resulting latent EEG representations were then used for downstream classification tasks via our proposed latent fusion transformer (LFT). To evaluate our method, we used the multi-event Temple University EEG Event Corpus and compared EEGDM with current state-of-the-art approaches, including EEG FMs. Empirical results showed that our method outperformed existing methods while being approximately 19x more lightweight. These findings suggested that EEGDM offered a promising alternative to current FMs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/jhpuah/EEGDM.

We study the problem of 3D object generation. We propose a novel framework, namely 3D Generative Adversarial Network (3D-GAN), which generates 3D objects from a probabilistic space by leveraging recent advances in volumetric convolutional networks and generative adversarial nets. The benefits of our model are three-fold: first, the use of an adversarial criterion, instead of traditional heuristic criteria, enables the generator to capture object structure implicitly and to synthesize high-quality 3D objects; second, the generator establishes a mapping from a low-dimensional probabilistic space to the space of 3D objects, so that we can sample objects without a reference image or CAD models, and explore the 3D object manifold; third, the adversarial discriminator provides a powerful 3D shape descriptor which, learned without supervision, has wide applications in 3D object recognition. Experiments demonstrate that our method generates high-quality 3D objects, and our unsupervisedly learned features achieve impressive performance on 3D object recognition, comparable with those of supervised learning methods.

Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures and convolutional or local connections between layers. Equipped with tensorized truncated variational inference, our LGMs can be efficiently trained via backpropagation on mainstream deep learning frameworks such as PyTorch. To deal with continuous valued inputs, we use a simple yet effective soft-clamping strategy for efficient inference. Through extensive experiments on image classification over MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets, we demonstrate that LGMs are capable of achieving competitive results comparable to NNs of similar architectures, while preserving transparent probabilistic modeling.

Structured output representation is a generative task explored in computer vision that often times requires the mapping of low dimensional features to high dimensional structured outputs. Losses in complex spatial information in deterministic approaches such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) lead to uncertainties and ambiguous structures within a single output representation. A probabilistic approach through deep Conditional Generative Models (CGM) is presented by Sohn et al. in which a particular model known as the Conditional Variational Auto-encoder (CVAE) is introduced and explored. While the original paper focuses on the task of image segmentation, this paper adopts the CVAE framework for the task of controlled output representation through attributes. This approach allows us to learn a disentangled multimodal prior distribution, resulting in more controlled and robust approach to sample generation. In this work we recreate the CVAE architecture and train it on images conditioned on various attributes obtained from two image datasets; the Large-scale CelebFaces Attributes (CelebA) dataset and the Caltech-UCSD Birds (CUB-200-2011) dataset. We attempt to generate new faces with distinct attributes such as hair color and glasses, as well as different bird species samples with various attributes. We further introduce strategies for improving generalized sample generation by applying a weighted term to the variational lower bound.

We use Bayesian convolutional neural networks and a novel generative model of Galaxy Zoo volunteer responses to infer posteriors for the visual morphology of galaxies. Bayesian CNN can learn from galaxy images with uncertain labels and then, for previously unlabelled galaxies, predict the probability of each possible label. Our posteriors are well-calibrated (e.g. for predicting bars, we achieve coverage errors of 11.8% within a vote fraction deviation of 0.2) and hence are reliable for practical use. Further, using our posteriors, we apply the active learning strategy BALD to request volunteer responses for the subset of galaxies which, if labelled, would be most informative for training our network. We show that training our Bayesian CNNs using active learning requires up to 35-60% fewer labelled galaxies, depending on the morphological feature being classified. By combining human and machine intelligence, Galaxy Zoo will be able to classify surveys of any conceivable scale on a timescale of weeks, providing massive and detailed morphology catalogues to support research into galaxy evolution.

Learning representations that are useful for unknown downstream tasks is a fundamental challenge in representation learning. Prominent approaches in this domain include contrastive learning, self-supervised masking, and denoising auto-encoders. In this paper, we introduce a novel method, termed contrastive Mutual Information Machine (cMIM), which aims to enhance the utility of learned representations for downstream tasks. cMIM integrates a new contrastive learning loss with the Mutual Information Machine (MIM) learning framework, a probabilistic auto-encoder that maximizes the mutual information between inputs and latent representations while clustering the latent codes. Despite MIM's potential, initial experiments indicated that the representations learned by MIM were less effective for discriminative downstream tasks compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. The proposed cMIM method directly addresses this limitation. The main contributions of this work are twofold: (1) We propose a novel contrastive extension to MIM for learning discriminative representations which eliminates the need for data augmentation and is robust to variations in the number of negative examples (i.e., batch size). (2) We introduce a generic method for extracting informative embeddings from encoder-decoder models, which significantly improves performance in discriminative downstream tasks without requiring additional training. This method is applicable to any pre-trained encoder-decoder model. By presenting cMIM, we aim to offer a unified generative model that is effective for both generative and discriminative tasks. Our results demonstrate that the learned representations are valuable for downstream tasks while maintaining the generative capabilities of MIM.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) are generative models showing competitive performance in various domains, including image synthesis and 3D point cloud generation. Sampling from pre-trained DPMs involves multiple neural function evaluations (NFEs) to transform Gaussian noise samples into images, resulting in higher computational costs compared to single-step generative models such as GANs or VAEs. Therefore, reducing the number of NFEs while preserving generation quality is crucial. To address this, we propose LD3, a lightweight framework designed to learn the optimal time discretization for sampling. LD3 can be combined with various samplers and consistently improves generation quality without having to retrain resource-intensive neural networks. We demonstrate analytically and empirically that LD3 improves sampling efficiency with much less computational overhead. We evaluate our method with extensive experiments on 7 pre-trained models, covering unconditional and conditional sampling in both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs. We achieve FIDs of 2.38 (10 NFE), and 2.27 (10 NFE) on unconditional CIFAR10 and AFHQv2 in 5-10 minutes of training. LD3 offers an efficient approach to sampling from pre-trained diffusion models. Code is available at https://github.com/vinhsuhi/LD3.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Human motion stylization aims to revise the style of an input motion while keeping its content unaltered. Unlike existing works that operate directly in pose space, we leverage the latent space of pretrained autoencoders as a more expressive and robust representation for motion extraction and infusion. Building upon this, we present a novel generative model that produces diverse stylization results of a single motion (latent) code. During training, a motion code is decomposed into two coding components: a deterministic content code, and a probabilistic style code adhering to a prior distribution; then a generator massages the random combination of content and style codes to reconstruct the corresponding motion codes. Our approach is versatile, allowing the learning of probabilistic style space from either style labeled or unlabeled motions, providing notable flexibility in stylization as well. In inference, users can opt to stylize a motion using style cues from a reference motion or a label. Even in the absence of explicit style input, our model facilitates novel re-stylization by sampling from the unconditional style prior distribution. Experimental results show that our proposed stylization models, despite their lightweight design, outperform the state-of-the-art in style reenactment, content preservation, and generalization across various applications and settings. Project Page: https://murrol.github.io/GenMoStyle

Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are a family of algorithms for training a sequential sampler of discrete objects under an unnormalized target density and have been successfully used for various probabilistic modeling tasks. Existing training objectives for GFlowNets are either local to states or transitions, or propagate a reward signal over an entire sampling trajectory. We argue that these alternatives represent opposite ends of a gradient bias-variance tradeoff and propose a way to exploit this tradeoff to mitigate its harmful effects. Inspired by the TD(lambda) algorithm in reinforcement learning, we introduce subtrajectory balance or SubTB(lambda), a GFlowNet training objective that can learn from partial action subsequences of varying lengths. We show that SubTB(lambda) accelerates sampler convergence in previously studied and new environments and enables training GFlowNets in environments with longer action sequences and sparser reward landscapes than what was possible before. We also perform a comparative analysis of stochastic gradient dynamics, shedding light on the bias-variance tradeoff in GFlowNet training and the advantages of subtrajectory balance.

Generative molecular design has moved from proof-of-concept to real-world applicability, as marked by the surge in very recent papers reporting experimental validation. Key challenges in explainability and sample efficiency present opportunities to enhance generative design to directly optimize expensive high-fidelity oracles and provide actionable insights to domain experts. Here, we propose Beam Enumeration to exhaustively enumerate the most probable sub-sequences from language-based molecular generative models and show that molecular substructures can be extracted. When coupled with reinforcement learning, extracted substructures become meaningful, providing a source of explainability and improving sample efficiency through self-conditioned generation. Beam Enumeration is generally applicable to any language-based molecular generative model and notably further improves the performance of the recently reported Augmented Memory algorithm, which achieved the new state-of-the-art on the Practical Molecular Optimization benchmark for sample efficiency. The combined algorithm generates more high reward molecules and faster, given a fixed oracle budget. Beam Enumeration shows that improvements to explainability and sample efficiency for molecular design can be made synergistic.

Blind face restoration aims to recover high-quality facial images from various unidentified sources of degradation, posing significant challenges due to the minimal information retrievable from the degraded images. Prior knowledge-based methods, leveraging geometric priors and facial features, have led to advancements in face restoration but often fall short of capturing fine details. To address this, we introduce a visual style prompt learning framework that utilizes diffusion probabilistic models to explicitly generate visual prompts within the latent space of pre-trained generative models. These prompts are designed to guide the restoration process. To fully utilize the visual prompts and enhance the extraction of informative and rich patterns, we introduce a style-modulated aggregation transformation layer. Extensive experiments and applications demonstrate the superiority of our method in achieving high-quality blind face restoration. The source code is available at https://github.com/LonglongaaaGo/VSPBFR{https://github.com/LonglongaaaGo/VSPBFR}.

We consider the problem of weakly supervised object detection, where the training samples are annotated using only image-level labels that indicate the presence or absence of an object category. In order to model the uncertainty in the location of the objects, we employ a dissimilarity coefficient based probabilistic learning objective. The learning objective minimizes the difference between an annotation agnostic prediction distribution and an annotation aware conditional distribution. The main computational challenge is the complex nature of the conditional distribution, which consists of terms over hundreds or thousands of variables. The complexity of the conditional distribution rules out the possibility of explicitly modeling it. Instead, we exploit the fact that deep learning frameworks rely on stochastic optimization. This allows us to use a state of the art discrete generative model that can provide annotation consistent samples from the conditional distribution. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach.

Generating human motion from text has been dominated by denoising motion models either through diffusion or generative masking process. However, these models face great limitations in usability by requiring prior knowledge of the motion length. Conversely, autoregressive motion models address this limitation by adaptively predicting motion endpoints, at the cost of degraded generation quality and editing capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Motion Model (BAMM), a novel text-to-motion generation framework. BAMM consists of two key components: (1) a motion tokenizer that transforms 3D human motion into discrete tokens in latent space, and (2) a masked self-attention transformer that autoregressively predicts randomly masked tokens via a hybrid attention masking strategy. By unifying generative masked modeling and autoregressive modeling, BAMM captures rich and bidirectional dependencies among motion tokens, while learning the probabilistic mapping from textual inputs to motion outputs with dynamically-adjusted motion sequence length. This feature enables BAMM to simultaneously achieving high-quality motion generation with enhanced usability and built-in motion editability. Extensive experiments on HumanML3D and KIT-ML datasets demonstrate that BAMM surpasses current state-of-the-art methods in both qualitative and quantitative measures. Our project page is available at https://exitudio.github.io/BAMM-page

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

Despite the remarkable progress in deep generative models, synthesizing high-resolution and temporally coherent videos still remains a challenge due to their high-dimensionality and complex temporal dynamics along with large spatial variations. Recent works on diffusion models have shown their potential to solve this challenge, yet they suffer from severe computation- and memory-inefficiency that limit the scalability. To handle this issue, we propose a novel generative model for videos, coined projected latent video diffusion models (PVDM), a probabilistic diffusion model which learns a video distribution in a low-dimensional latent space and thus can be efficiently trained with high-resolution videos under limited resources. Specifically, PVDM is composed of two components: (a) an autoencoder that projects a given video as 2D-shaped latent vectors that factorize the complex cubic structure of video pixels and (b) a diffusion model architecture specialized for our new factorized latent space and the training/sampling procedure to synthesize videos of arbitrary length with a single model. Experiments on popular video generation datasets demonstrate the superiority of PVDM compared with previous video synthesis methods; e.g., PVDM obtains the FVD score of 639.7 on the UCF-101 long video (128 frames) generation benchmark, which improves 1773.4 of the prior state-of-the-art.

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.

In conversation, speakers produce language incrementally, word by word, while continuously monitoring the appropriateness of their own contribution in the dynamically unfolding context of the conversation; and this often leads them to repair their own utterance on the fly. This real-time language processing capacity is furthermore crucial to the development of fluent and natural conversational AI. In this paper, we use a previously learned Dynamic Syntax grammar and the CHILDES corpus to develop, train and evaluate a probabilistic model for incremental generation where input to the model is a purely semantic generation goal concept in Type Theory with Records (TTR). We show that the model's output exactly matches the gold candidate in 78% of cases with a ROUGE-l score of 0.86. We further do a zero-shot evaluation of the ability of the same model to generate self-repairs when the generation goal changes mid-utterance. Automatic evaluation shows that the model can generate self-repairs correctly in 85% of cases. A small human evaluation confirms the naturalness and grammaticality of the generated self-repairs. Overall, these results further highlight the generalisation power of grammar-based models and lay the foundations for more controllable, and naturally interactive conversational AI systems.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

Historical maps are invaluable for analyzing long-term changes in transportation and spatial development, offering a rich source of data for evolutionary studies. However, digitizing and classifying road networks from these maps is often expensive and time-consuming, limiting their widespread use. Recent advancements in deep learning have made automatic road extraction from historical maps feasible, yet these methods typically require large amounts of labeled training data. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework that integrates deep learning with geoinformation, computer-based painting, and image processing methodologies. This framework enables the extraction and classification of roads from historical maps using only road geometries without needing road class labels for training. The process begins with training of a binary segmentation model to extract road geometries, followed by morphological operations, skeletonization, vectorization, and filtering algorithms. Synthetic training data is then generated by a painting function that artificially re-paints road segments using predefined symbology for road classes. Using this synthetic data, a deep ensemble is trained to generate pixel-wise probabilities for road classes to mitigate distribution shift. These predictions are then discretized along the extracted road geometries. Subsequently, further processing is employed to classify entire roads, enabling the identification of potential changes in road classes and resulting in a labeled road class dataset. Our method achieved completeness and correctness scores of over 94% and 92%, respectively, for road class 2, the most prevalent class in the two Siegfried Map sheets from Switzerland used for testing. This research offers a powerful tool for urban planning and transportation decision-making by efficiently extracting and classifying roads from historical maps.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

This paper describes BACON, a basic prototype of an automatic poetry generator with author linguistic style transfer. It combines concepts and techniques from finite state machinery, probabilistic models, artificial neural networks and deep learning, to write original poetry with rich aesthetic-qualities in the style of any given author. Extrinsic evaluation of the output generated by BACON shows that participants were unable to tell the difference between human and AI-generated poems in any statistically significant way.

Recently, deep learning-based language models have significantly enhanced text-to-SQL tasks, with promising applications in retrieving patient records within the medical domain. One notable challenge in such applications is discerning unanswerable queries. Through fine-tuning model, we demonstrate the feasibility of converting medical record inquiries into SQL queries. Additionally, we introduce an entropy-based method to identify and filter out unanswerable results. We further enhance result quality by filtering low-confidence SQL through log probability-based distribution, while grammatical and schema errors are mitigated by executing queries on the actual database. We experimentally verified that our method can filter unanswerable questions, which can be widely utilized even when the parameters of the model are not accessible, and that it can be effectively utilized in practice.

In this work, we tackle the problem of learning universal robotic dexterous grasping from a point cloud observation under a table-top setting. The goal is to grasp and lift up objects in high-quality and diverse ways and generalize across hundreds of categories and even the unseen. Inspired by successful pipelines used in parallel gripper grasping, we split the task into two stages: 1) grasp proposal (pose) generation and 2) goal-conditioned grasp execution. For the first stage, we propose a novel probabilistic model of grasp pose conditioned on the point cloud observation that factorizes rotation from translation and articulation. Trained on our synthesized large-scale dexterous grasp dataset, this model enables us to sample diverse and high-quality dexterous grasp poses for the object point cloud.For the second stage, we propose to replace the motion planning used in parallel gripper grasping with a goal-conditioned grasp policy, due to the complexity involved in dexterous grasping execution. Note that it is very challenging to learn this highly generalizable grasp policy that only takes realistic inputs without oracle states. We thus propose several important innovations, including state canonicalization, object curriculum, and teacher-student distillation. Integrating the two stages, our final pipeline becomes the first to achieve universal generalization for dexterous grasping, demonstrating an average success rate of more than 60\% on thousands of object instances, which significantly outperforms all baselines, meanwhile showing only a minimal generalization gap.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to widespread use of techniques for audio content generation, notably employing Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) across various tasks. Among these, Foley Sound Synthesis is of particular interest for its role in applications for the creation of multimedia content. Given the temporal-dependent nature of sound, it is crucial to design generative models that can effectively handle the sequential modeling of audio samples. Selective State Space Models (SSMs) have recently been proposed as a valid alternative to previously proposed techniques, demonstrating competitive performance with lower computational complexity. In this paper, we introduce MambaFoley, a diffusion-based model that, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to leverage the recently proposed SSM known as Mamba for the Foley sound generation task. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we compare it with a state-of-the-art Foley sound generative model using both objective and subjective analyses.

Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have rapidly risen to prominence due to their greater accuracy and speed than traditional forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), recently outperforming traditional ensembles in global probabilistic weather forecasting. This paper presents FGN, a simple, scalable and flexible modeling approach which significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art models. FGN generates ensembles via learned model-perturbations with an ensemble of appropriately constrained models. It is trained directly to minimize the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) of per-location forecasts. It produces state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts as measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics, makes skillful ensemble tropical cyclone track predictions, and captures joint spatial structure despite being trained only on marginals.

Mixture models are traditionally represented and learned by adding several distributions as components. Allowing mixtures to subtract probability mass or density can drastically reduce the number of components needed to model complex distributions. However, learning such subtractive mixtures while ensuring they still encode a non-negative function is challenging. We investigate how to learn and perform inference on deep subtractive mixtures by squaring them. We do this in the framework of probabilistic circuits, which enable us to represent tensorized mixtures and generalize several other subtractive models. We theoretically prove that the class of squared circuits allowing subtractions can be exponentially more expressive than traditional additive mixtures; and, we empirically show this increased expressiveness on a series of real-world distribution estimation tasks.

Recent approaches for weakly supervised instance segmentations depend on two components: (i) a pseudo label generation model that provides instances which are consistent with a given annotation; and (ii) an instance segmentation model, which is trained in a supervised manner using the pseudo labels as ground-truth. Unlike previous approaches, we explicitly model the uncertainty in the pseudo label generation process using a conditional distribution. The samples drawn from our conditional distribution provide accurate pseudo labels due to the use of semantic class aware unary terms, boundary aware pairwise smoothness terms, and annotation aware higher order terms. Furthermore, we represent the instance segmentation model as an annotation agnostic prediction distribution. In contrast to previous methods, our representation allows us to define a joint probabilistic learning objective that minimizes the dissimilarity between the two distributions. Our approach achieves state of the art results on the PASCAL VOC 2012 data set, outperforming the best baseline by 4.2% [email protected] and 4.8% [email protected].

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) have shown remarkable performance in unconditional image generation. However, due to the stochasticity of the generative process in DDPM, it is challenging to generate images with the desired semantics. In this work, we propose Iterative Latent Variable Refinement (ILVR), a method to guide the generative process in DDPM to generate high-quality images based on a given reference image. Here, the refinement of the generative process in DDPM enables a single DDPM to sample images from various sets directed by the reference image. The proposed ILVR method generates high-quality images while controlling the generation. The controllability of our method allows adaptation of a single DDPM without any additional learning in various image generation tasks, such as generation from various downsampling factors, multi-domain image translation, paint-to-image, and editing with scribbles.

Sampling from diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) can be viewed as a piecewise distribution transformation, which generally requires hundreds or thousands of steps of the inverse diffusion trajectory to get a high-quality image. Recent progress in designing fast samplers for DPMs achieves a trade-off between sampling speed and sample quality by knowledge distillation or adjusting the variance schedule or the denoising equation. However, it can't be optimal in both aspects and often suffer from mode mixture in short steps. To tackle this problem, we innovatively regard inverse diffusion as an optimal transport (OT) problem between latents at different stages and propose the DPM-OT, a unified learning framework for fast DPMs with a direct expressway represented by OT map, which can generate high-quality samples within around 10 function evaluations. By calculating the semi-discrete optimal transport map between the data latents and the white noise, we obtain an expressway from the prior distribution to the data distribution, while significantly alleviating the problem of mode mixture. In addition, we give the error bound of the proposed method, which theoretically guarantees the stability of the algorithm. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness and advantages of DPM-OT in terms of speed and quality (FID and mode mixture), thus representing an efficient solution for generative modeling. Source codes are available at https://github.com/cognaclee/DPM-OT