Daily Papers

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the probability of each output given some input - following the intuition that the trained model tends to behave differently on its training data. We argue that this is a fallacy for many modern deep network architectures. Consequently, MIAs will miserably fail since overconfidence leads to high false-positive rates not only on known domains but also on out-of-distribution data and implicitly acts as a defense against MIAs. Specifically, using generative adversarial networks, we are able to produce a potentially infinite number of samples falsely classified as part of the training data. In other words, the threat of MIAs is overestimated, and less information is leaked than previously assumed. Moreover, there is actually a trade-off between the overconfidence of models and their susceptibility to MIAs: the more classifiers know when they do not know, making low confidence predictions, the more they reveal the training data.

Recent studies show that Question Answering (QA) based on Answer Sentence Selection (AS2) can be improved by generating an improved answer from the top-k ranked answer sentences (termed GenQA). This allows for synthesizing the information from multiple candidates into a concise, natural-sounding answer. However, creating large-scale supervised training data for GenQA models is very challenging. In this paper, we propose to train a GenQA model by transferring knowledge from a trained AS2 model, to overcome the aforementioned issue. First, we use an AS2 model to produce a ranking over answer candidates for a set of questions. Then, we use the top ranked candidate as the generation target, and the next k top ranked candidates as context for training a GenQA model. We also propose to use the AS2 model prediction scores for loss weighting and score-conditioned input/output shaping, to aid the knowledge transfer. Our evaluation on three public and one large industrial datasets demonstrates the superiority of our approach over the AS2 baseline, and GenQA trained using supervised data.

State-of-the-art supervised NLP models achieve high accuracy but are also susceptible to failures on inputs from low-data regimes, such as domains that are not represented in training data. As an approximation to collecting ground-truth labels for the specific domain, we study the use of large language models (LLMs) for annotating inputs and improving the generalization of NLP models. Specifically, given a budget for LLM annotations, we present an algorithm for sampling the most informative inputs to annotate and retrain the NLP model. We find that popular active learning strategies such as uncertainty-based sampling do not work well. Instead, we propose a sampling strategy based on the difference in prediction scores between the base model and the finetuned NLP model, utilizing the fact that most NLP models are finetuned from a base model. Experiments with classification (semantic similarity) and ranking (semantic search) tasks show that our sampling strategy leads to significant gains in accuracy for both the training and target domains.

Answering complex queries on incomplete knowledge graphs is a challenging task where a model needs to answer complex logical queries in the presence of missing knowledge. Prior work in the literature has proposed to address this problem by designing architectures trained end-to-end for the complex query answering task with a reasoning process that is hard to interpret while requiring data and resource-intensive training. Other lines of research have proposed re-using simple neural link predictors to answer complex queries, reducing the amount of training data by orders of magnitude while providing interpretable answers. The neural link predictor used in such approaches is not explicitly optimised for the complex query answering task, implying that its scores are not calibrated to interact together. We propose to address these problems via CQD^{A}, a parameter-efficient score adaptation model optimised to re-calibrate neural link prediction scores for the complex query answering task. While the neural link predictor is frozen, the adaptation component -- which only increases the number of model parameters by 0.03% -- is trained on the downstream complex query answering task. Furthermore, the calibration component enables us to support reasoning over queries that include atomic negations, which was previously impossible with link predictors. In our experiments, CQD^{A} produces significantly more accurate results than current state-of-the-art methods, improving from 34.4 to 35.1 Mean Reciprocal Rank values averaged across all datasets and query types while using leq 30% of the available training query types. We further show that CQD^{A} is data-efficient, achieving competitive results with only 1% of the training complex queries, and robust in out-of-domain evaluations.

We show that classifiers trained with random region proposals achieve state-of-the-art Open-world Object Detection (OWOD): they can not only maintain the accuracy of the known objects (w/ training labels), but also considerably improve the recall of unknown ones (w/o training labels). Specifically, we propose RandBox, a Fast R-CNN based architecture trained on random proposals at each training iteration, surpassing existing Faster R-CNN and Transformer based OWOD. Its effectiveness stems from the following two benefits introduced by randomness. First, as the randomization is independent of the distribution of the limited known objects, the random proposals become the instrumental variable that prevents the training from being confounded by the known objects. Second, the unbiased training encourages more proposal explorations by using our proposed matching score that does not penalize the random proposals whose prediction scores do not match the known objects. On two benchmarks: Pascal-VOC/MS-COCO and LVIS, RandBox significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in all metrics. We also detail the ablations on randomization and loss designs. Codes are available at https://github.com/scuwyh2000/RandBox.

This paper aims to quantitatively explain rationales of each prediction that is made by a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN). We propose to learn a decision tree, which clarifies the specific reason for each prediction made by the CNN at the semantic level. I.e., the decision tree decomposes feature representations in high conv-layers of the CNN into elementary concepts of object parts. In this way, the decision tree tells people which object parts activate which filters for the prediction and how much they contribute to the prediction score. Such semantic and quantitative explanations for CNN predictions have specific values beyond the traditional pixel-level analysis of CNNs. More specifically, our method mines all potential decision modes of the CNN, where each mode represents a common case of how the CNN uses object parts for prediction. The decision tree organizes all potential decision modes in a coarse-to-fine manner to explain CNN predictions at different fine-grained levels. Experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Toxic comments in online platforms are an unavoidable social issue under the cloak of anonymity. Hate speech detection has been actively done for languages such as English, German, or Italian, where manually labeled corpus has been released. In this work, we first present 9.4K manually labeled entertainment news comments for identifying Korean toxic speech, collected from a widely used online news platform in Korea. The comments are annotated regarding social bias and hate speech since both aspects are correlated. The inter-annotator agreement Krippendorff's alpha score is 0.492 and 0.496, respectively. We provide benchmarks using CharCNN, BiLSTM, and BERT, where BERT achieves the highest score on all tasks. The models generally display better performance on bias identification, since the hate speech detection is a more subjective issue. Additionally, when BERT is trained with bias label for hate speech detection, the prediction score increases, implying that bias and hate are intertwined. We make our dataset publicly available and open competitions with the corpus and benchmarks.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

The SYNTAX score has become a widely used measure of coronary disease severity , crucial in selecting the optimal mode of revascularization. This paper introduces a new medical regression and classification problem - automatically estimating SYNTAX score from coronary angiography. Our study presents a comprehensive dataset of 1,844 patients, featuring a balanced distribution of individuals with zero and non-zero scores. This dataset includes a first-of-its-kind, complete coronary angiography samples captured through a multi-view X-ray video, allowing one to observe coronary arteries from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, we present a novel, fully automatic end-to-end method for estimating the SYNTAX. For such a difficult task, we have achieved a solid coefficient of determination R2 of 0.51 in score predictions.

The task of personalized image aesthetic assessment seeks to tailor aesthetic score prediction models to match individual preferences with just a few user-provided inputs. However, the scalability and generalization capabilities of current approaches are considerably restricted by their reliance on an expensive curated database. To overcome this long-standing scalability challenge, we present a unique approach that leverages readily available databases for general image aesthetic assessment and image quality assessment. Specifically, we view each database as a distinct image score regression task that exhibits varying degrees of personalization potential. By determining optimal combinations of task vectors, known to represent specific traits of each database, we successfully create personalized models for individuals. This approach of integrating multiple models allows us to harness a substantial amount of data. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generalizing to previously unseen domains-a challenge previous approaches have struggled to achieve-making it highly applicable to real-world scenarios. Our novel approach significantly advances the field by offering scalable solutions for personalized aesthetic assessment and establishing high standards for future research. https://yeolj00.github.io/personal-projects/personalized-aesthetics/

This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) are state-of-the-art quality estimators for machine translation of user-generated content (UGC) that contains emotional expressions, without the use of reference translations. To achieve this, we employ an existing emotion-related dataset with human-annotated errors and calculate quality evaluation scores based on the Multi-dimensional Quality Metrics. We compare the accuracy of several LLMs with that of our fine-tuned baseline models, under in-context learning and parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) scenarios. We find that PEFT of LLMs leads to better performance in score prediction with human interpretable explanations than fine-tuned models. However, a manual analysis of LLM outputs reveals that they still have problems such as refusal to reply to a prompt and unstable output while evaluating machine translation of UGC.

Training dialog policies for speech-based virtual assistants requires a plethora of conversational data. The data collection phase is often expensive and time consuming due to human involvement. To address this issue, a common solution is to build user simulators for data generation. For the successful deployment of the trained policies into real world domains, it is vital that the user simulator mimics realistic conditions. In particular, speech-based assistants are heavily affected by automatic speech recognition and language understanding errors, hence the user simulator should be able to simulate similar errors. In this paper, we review the existing error simulation methods that induce errors at audio, phoneme, text, or semantic level; and conduct detailed comparisons between the audio-level and text-level methods. In the process, we improve the existing text-level method by introducing confidence score prediction and out-of-vocabulary word mapping. We also explore the impact of audio-level and text-level methods on learning a simple clarification dialog policy to recover from errors to provide insight on future improvement for both approaches.

Automatic evaluation of machine translation (MT) is a critical tool driving the rapid iterative development of MT systems. While considerable progress has been made on estimating a single scalar quality score, current metrics lack the informativeness of more detailed schemes that annotate individual errors, such as Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM). In this paper, we help fill this gap by proposing AutoMQM, a prompting technique which leverages the reasoning and in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) and asks them to identify and categorize errors in translations. We start by evaluating recent LLMs, such as PaLM and PaLM-2, through simple score prediction prompting, and we study the impact of labeled data through in-context learning and finetuning. We then evaluate AutoMQM with PaLM-2 models, and we find that it improves performance compared to just prompting for scores (with particularly large gains for larger models) while providing interpretability through error spans that align with human annotations.

Current developments in large language models (LLMs) have enabled impressive zero-shot capabilities across various natural language tasks. An interesting application of these systems is in the automated assessment of natural language generation (NLG), a highly challenging area with great practical benefit. In this paper, we explore two options for exploiting the emergent abilities of LLMs for zero-shot NLG assessment: absolute score prediction, and comparative assessment which uses relative comparisons between pairs of candidates. Though comparative assessment has not been extensively studied in NLG assessment, we note that humans often find it more intuitive to compare two options rather than scoring each one independently. This work examines comparative assessment from multiple perspectives: performance compared to absolute grading; positional biases in the prompt; and efficient ranking in terms of the number of comparisons. We illustrate that LLM comparative assessment is a simple, general and effective approach for NLG assessment. For moderate-sized open-source LLMs, such as FlanT5 and Llama2-chat, comparative assessment is superior to prompt scoring, and in many cases can achieve performance competitive with state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we demonstrate that LLMs often exhibit strong positional biases when making pairwise comparisons, and we propose debiasing methods that can further improve performance.

Tracking often uses a multi-stage pipeline of feature extraction, target information integration, and bounding box estimation. To simplify this pipeline and unify the process of feature extraction and target information integration, we present a compact tracking framework, termed as MixFormer, built upon transformers. Our core design is to utilize the flexibility of attention operations, and propose a Mixed Attention Module (MAM) for simultaneous feature extraction and target information integration. This synchronous modeling scheme allows to extract target-specific discriminative features and perform extensive communication between target and search area. Based on MAM, we build our MixFormer tracking framework simply by stacking multiple MAMs with progressive patch embedding and placing a localization head on top. In addition, to handle multiple target templates during online tracking, we devise an asymmetric attention scheme in MAM to reduce computational cost, and propose an effective score prediction module to select high-quality templates. Our MixFormer sets a new state-of-the-art performance on five tracking benchmarks, including LaSOT, TrackingNet, VOT2020, GOT-10k, and UAV123. In particular, our MixFormer-L achieves NP score of 79.9% on LaSOT, 88.9% on TrackingNet and EAO of 0.555 on VOT2020. We also perform in-depth ablation studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of simultaneous feature extraction and information integration. Code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/MixFormer.

The recent explosion of question answering (QA) datasets and models has increased the interest in the generalization of models across multiple domains and formats by either training on multiple datasets or by combining multiple models. Despite the promising results of multi-dataset models, some domains or QA formats may require specific architectures, and thus the adaptability of these models might be limited. In addition, current approaches for combining models disregard cues such as question-answer compatibility. In this work, we propose to combine expert agents with a novel, flexible, and training-efficient architecture that considers questions, answer predictions, and answer-prediction confidence scores to select the best answer among a list of answer candidates. Through quantitative and qualitative experiments we show that our model i) creates a collaboration between agents that outperforms previous multi-agent and multi-dataset approaches in both in-domain and out-of-domain scenarios, ii) is highly data-efficient to train, and iii) can be adapted to any QA format. We release our code and a dataset of answer predictions from expert agents for 16 QA datasets to foster future developments of multi-agent systems on https://github.com/UKPLab/MetaQA.

We present the UTokyo-SaruLab mean opinion score (MOS) prediction system submitted to VoiceMOS Challenge 2022. The challenge is to predict the MOS values of speech samples collected from previous Blizzard Challenges and Voice Conversion Challenges for two tracks: a main track for in-domain prediction and an out-of-domain (OOD) track for which there is less labeled data from different listening tests. Our system is based on ensemble learning of strong and weak learners. Strong learners incorporate several improvements to the previous fine-tuning models of self-supervised learning (SSL) models, while weak learners use basic machine-learning methods to predict scores from SSL features. In the Challenge, our system had the highest score on several metrics for both the main and OOD tracks. In addition, we conducted ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

In many jurisdictions, the excessive workload of courts leads to high delays. Suitable predictive AI models can assist legal professionals in their work, and thus enhance and speed up the process. So far, Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) datasets have been released in English, French, and Chinese. We publicly release a multilingual (German, French, and Italian), diachronic (2000-2020) corpus of 85K cases from the Federal Supreme Court of Switzerland (FSCS). We evaluate state-of-the-art BERT-based methods including two variants of BERT that overcome the BERT input (text) length limitation (up to 512 tokens). Hierarchical BERT has the best performance (approx. 68-70% Macro-F1-Score in German and French). Furthermore, we study how several factors (canton of origin, year of publication, text length, legal area) affect performance. We release both the benchmark dataset and our code to accelerate future research and ensure reproducibility.

We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Features for prediction were created from only common vital sign measurements. We show significant improvement of AUC score using neural network based ensemble model compared to single ML and rule-based models. For the detection of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, our model achieves an AUC of 0.97, 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Four hours before the positive hours, it predicts the same three categories with an AUC of 0.90, 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Further, we ranked the features and found that using six vital signs consistently provides higher detection and prediction AUC for all the models tested. Our novel ensemble model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in the MIMIC-III ICU patients, and is amenable to deployment in hospital settings.

Next-Token Prediction (NTP) is a de facto approach for autoregressive (AR) video generation, but it suffers from suboptimal unidirectional dependencies and slow inference speed. In this work, we propose a semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) framework, called Next-Block Prediction (NBP), for video generation. By uniformly decomposing video content into equal-sized blocks (e.g., rows or frames), we shift the generation unit from individual tokens to blocks, allowing each token in the current block to simultaneously predict the corresponding token in the next block. Unlike traditional AR modeling, our framework employs bidirectional attention within each block, enabling tokens to capture more robust spatial dependencies. By predicting multiple tokens in parallel, NBP models significantly reduce the number of generation steps, leading to faster and more efficient inference. Our model achieves FVD scores of 103.3 on UCF101 and 25.5 on K600, outperforming the vanilla NTP model by an average of 4.4. Furthermore, thanks to the reduced number of inference steps, the NBP model generates 8.89 frames (128x128 resolution) per second, achieving an 11x speedup. We also explored model scales ranging from 700M to 3B parameters, observing significant improvements in generation quality, with FVD scores dropping from 103.3 to 55.3 on UCF101 and from 25.5 to 19.5 on K600, demonstrating the scalability of our approach.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

By leveraging the text-to-image diffusion priors, score distillation can synthesize 3D contents without paired text-3D training data. Instead of spending hours of online optimization per text prompt, recent studies have been focused on learning a text-to-3D generative network for amortizing multiple text-3D relations, which can synthesize 3D contents in seconds. However, existing score distillation methods are hard to scale up to a large amount of text prompts due to the difficulties in aligning pretrained diffusion prior with the distribution of rendered images from various text prompts. Current state-of-the-arts such as Variational Score Distillation finetune the pretrained diffusion model to minimize the noise prediction error so as to align the distributions, which are however unstable to train and will impair the model's comprehension capability to numerous text prompts. Based on the observation that the diffusion models tend to have lower noise prediction errors at earlier timesteps, we propose Asynchronous Score Distillation (ASD), which minimizes the noise prediction error by shifting the diffusion timestep to earlier ones. ASD is stable to train and can scale up to 100k prompts. It reduces the noise prediction error without changing the weights of pre-trained diffusion model, thus keeping its strong comprehension capability to prompts. We conduct extensive experiments across different 2D diffusion models, including Stable Diffusion and MVDream, and text-to-3D generators, including Hyper-iNGP, 3DConv-Net and Triplane-Transformer. The results demonstrate ASD's effectiveness in stable 3D generator training, high-quality 3D content synthesis, and its superior prompt-consistency, especially under large prompt corpus.

We propose MMLU-SR, a novel dataset designed to measure the true comprehension abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by challenging their performance in question-answering tasks with modified terms. We reasoned that an agent that ``truly'' understands a concept can still evaluate it when key terms are replaced by suitably defined alternate terms, and sought to differentiate such comprehension from mere text replacement. In our study, we modified standardized test questions by replacing a key term with a dummy word along with its definition. The key term could be in the context of questions, answers, or both questions and answers. Notwithstanding the high scores achieved by recent popular LLMs on the MMLU leaderboard, we found a substantial reduction in model performance after such replacement, suggesting poor comprehension. This new benchmark provides a rigorous benchmark for testing true model comprehension, and poses a challenge to the broader scientific community.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

Within this study, we propose a new approach for natural language processing using Bayesian networks to predict and analyze the context and how this approach can be applied to the Community Question Answering domain. We discuss how Bayesian networks can detect semantic relationships and dependencies between entities, and this is connected to different score-based approaches of structure-learning. We compared the Bayesian networks with different score metrics, such as the BIC, BDeu, K2 and Chow-Liu trees. Our proposed approach out-performs the baseline model at the precision metric. We also discuss the influence of penalty terms on the structure of Bayesian networks and how they can be used to analyze the relationships between entities. In addition, we examine the visualization of directed acyclic graphs to analyze semantic relationships. The article further identifies issues with detecting certain semantic classes that are separated in the structure of directed acyclic graphs. Finally, we evaluate potential improvements for the Bayesian network approach.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this paper, we take a different and more challenging route and aim at developing a self-interpretable model, dubbed Counterfactual Time Series (CounTS), which generates counterfactual and actionable explanations for time series predictions. Specifically, we formalize the problem of time series counterfactual explanations, establish associated evaluation protocols, and propose a variational Bayesian deep learning model equipped with counterfactual inference capability of time series abduction, action, and prediction. Compared with state-of-the-art baselines, our self-interpretable model can generate better counterfactual explanations while maintaining comparable prediction accuracy.

Verifiers or reward models are often used to enhance the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). A common approach is the Best-of-N method, where N candidate solutions generated by the LLM are ranked by a verifier, and the best one is selected. While LLM-based verifiers are typically trained as discriminative classifiers to score solutions, they do not utilize the text generation capabilities of pretrained LLMs. To overcome this limitation, we instead propose training verifiers using the ubiquitous next-token prediction objective, jointly on verification and solution generation. Compared to standard verifiers, such generative verifiers (GenRM) can benefit from several advantages of LLMs: they integrate seamlessly with instruction tuning, enable chain-of-thought reasoning, and can utilize additional inference-time compute via majority voting for better verification. We demonstrate that when using Gemma-based verifiers on algorithmic and grade-school math reasoning tasks, GenRM outperforms discriminative verifiers and LLM-as-a-Judge, showing a 16-64% improvement in the percentage of problems solved with Best-of-N. Furthermore, we show that GenRM scales favorably across dataset size, model capacity, and inference-time compute.

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

The dynamic nature of proteins is crucial for determining their biological functions and properties, for which Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations stand as predominant tools to study such phenomena. By utilizing empirically derived force fields, MC or MD simulations explore the conformational space through numerically evolving the system via Markov chain or Newtonian mechanics. However, the high-energy barrier of the force fields can hamper the exploration of both methods by the rare event, resulting in inadequately sampled ensemble without exhaustive running. Existing learning-based approaches perform direct sampling yet heavily rely on target-specific simulation data for training, which suffers from high data acquisition cost and poor generalizability. Inspired by simulated annealing, we propose Str2Str, a novel structure-to-structure translation framework capable of zero-shot conformation sampling with roto-translation equivariant property. Our method leverages an amortized denoising score matching objective trained on general crystal structures and has no reliance on simulation data during both training and inference. Experimental results across several benchmarking protein systems demonstrate that Str2Str outperforms previous state-of-the-art generative structure prediction models and can be orders of magnitude faster compared to long MD simulations. Our open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/lujiarui/Str2Str

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Neural language models encode rich knowledge about entities and their relationships which can be extracted from their representations using probing. Common properties of nouns (e.g., red strawberries, small ant) are, however, more challenging to extract compared to other types of knowledge because they are rarely explicitly stated in texts. We hypothesize this to mainly be the case for perceptual properties which are obvious to the participants in the communication. We propose to extract these properties from images and use them in an ensemble model, in order to complement the information that is extracted from language models. We consider perceptual properties to be more concrete than abstract properties (e.g., interesting, flawless). We propose to use the adjectives' concreteness score as a lever to calibrate the contribution of each source (text vs. images). We evaluate our ensemble model in a ranking task where the actual properties of a noun need to be ranked higher than other non-relevant properties. Our results show that the proposed combination of text and images greatly improves noun property prediction compared to powerful text-based language models.

The ability to accurately model the fitness landscape of protein sequences is critical to a wide range of applications, from quantifying the effects of human variants on disease likelihood, to predicting immune-escape mutations in viruses and designing novel biotherapeutic proteins. Deep generative models of protein sequences trained on multiple sequence alignments have been the most successful approaches so far to address these tasks. The performance of these methods is however contingent on the availability of sufficiently deep and diverse alignments for reliable training. Their potential scope is thus limited by the fact many protein families are hard, if not impossible, to align. Large language models trained on massive quantities of non-aligned protein sequences from diverse families address these problems and show potential to eventually bridge the performance gap. We introduce Tranception, a novel transformer architecture leveraging autoregressive predictions and retrieval of homologous sequences at inference to achieve state-of-the-art fitness prediction performance. Given its markedly higher performance on multiple mutants, robustness to shallow alignments and ability to score indels, our approach offers significant gain of scope over existing approaches. To enable more rigorous model testing across a broader range of protein families, we develop ProteinGym -- an extensive set of multiplexed assays of variant effects, substantially increasing both the number and diversity of assays compared to existing benchmarks.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

Understanding the 3D structures of protein multimers is crucial, as they play a vital role in regulating various cellular processes. It has been empirically confirmed that the multimer structure prediction~(MSP) can be well handled in a step-wise assembly fashion using provided dimer structures and predicted protein-protein interactions~(PPIs). However, due to the biological gap in the formation of dimers and larger multimers, directly applying PPI prediction techniques can often cause a poor generalization to the MSP task. To address this challenge, we aim to extend the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales~(i.e., chain numbers). Specifically, we propose \textsc{PromptMSP}, a pre-training and Prompt tuning framework for Multimer Structure Prediction. First, we tailor the source and target tasks for effective PPI knowledge learning and efficient inference, respectively. We design PPI-inspired prompt learning to narrow the gaps of two task formats and generalize the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales. We provide a meta-learning strategy to learn a reliable initialization of the prompt model, enabling our prompting framework to effectively adapt to limited data for large-scale multimers. Empirically, we achieve both significant accuracy (RMSD and TM-Score) and efficiency improvements compared to advanced MSP models. The code, data and checkpoints are released at https://github.com/zqgao22/PromptMSP.

The integration of knowledge graphs with deep learning is thriving in improving the performance of various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. In this paper, we focus on knowledge-infused link prediction and question answering using language models, T5, and BLOOM across three domains: Aviation, Movie, and Web. In this context, we infuse knowledge in large and small language models and study their performance, and find the performance to be similar. For the link prediction task on the Aviation Knowledge Graph, we obtain a 0.2 hits@1 score using T5-small, T5-base, T5-large, and BLOOM. Using template-based scripts, we create a set of 1 million synthetic factoid QA pairs in the aviation domain from National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports. On our curated QA pairs, the three models of T5 achieve a 0.7 hits@1 score. We validate out findings with the paired student t-test and Cohen's kappa scores. For link prediction on Aviation Knowledge Graph using T5-small and T5-large, we obtain a Cohen's kappa score of 0.76, showing substantial agreement between the models. Thus, we infer that small language models perform similar to large language models with the infusion of knowledge.

The human driver is no longer the only one concerned with the complexity of the driving scenarios. Autonomous vehicles (AV) are similarly becoming involved in the process. Nowadays, the development of AVs in urban places raises essential safety concerns for vulnerable road users (VRUs) such as pedestrians. Therefore, to make the roads safer, it is critical to classify and predict the pedestrians' future behavior. In this paper, we present a framework based on multiple variations of the Transformer models able to infer predict the pedestrian street-crossing decision-making based on the dynamics of its initiated trajectory. We showed that using solely bounding boxes as input features can outperform the previous state-of-the-art results by reaching a prediction accuracy of 91\% and an F1-score of 0.83 on the PIE dataset. In addition, we introduced a large-size simulated dataset (CP2A) using CARLA for action prediction. Our model has similarly reached high accuracy (91\%) and F1-score (0.91) on this dataset. Interestingly, we showed that pre-training our Transformer model on the CP2A dataset and then fine-tuning it on the PIE dataset is beneficial for the action prediction task. Finally, our model's results are successfully supported by the "human attention to bounding boxes" experiment which we created to test humans ability for pedestrian action prediction without the need for environmental context. The code for the dataset and the models is available at: https://github.com/linaashaji/Action_Anticipation

Large Language Models (LLMs) are discovered to suffer from accurately retrieving key information. To address this, we propose Mask-Enhanced Autoregressive Prediction (MEAP), a simple yet effective training paradigm that seamlessly integrates Masked Language Modeling (MLM) into Next-Token Prediction (NTP) to enhance the latter's in-context retrieval capabilities. Specifically, MEAP first randomly masks a small fraction of input tokens and then directly performs the standard next-token prediction autoregressive using a decoder-only Transformer. MEAP eliminates the need for bidirectional attention or encoder-decoder architectures for MLM, incurring no additional computational overhead during pre-training or inference. Intensive experiments demonstrate that MEAP substantially outperforms NTP on key information retrieval and long-context reasoning tasks, while performing on par or better on commonsense reasoning tasks. The benefits of MEAP also extend to supervised fine-tuning, where it shows remarkable advantages in lost-in-the-middle scenarios, outperforming NTP by 11.77 percentage points. Our analysis indicates that MEAP's effectiveness arises from its ability to promote more distinguishable attention scores by concentrating on a reduced set of non-masked tokens. This mechanism improves the model's focus on task-relevant signals while mitigating the influence of peripheral context. These findings position MEAP as a promising training paradigm for large language models.

The popularity of social media has created problems such as hate speech and sexism. The identification and classification of sexism in social media are very relevant tasks, as they would allow building a healthier social environment. Nevertheless, these tasks are considerably challenging. This work proposes a system to use multilingual and monolingual BERT and data points translation and ensemble strategies for sexism identification and classification in English and Spanish. It was conducted in the context of the sEXism Identification in Social neTworks shared 2021 (EXIST 2021) task, proposed by the Iberian Languages Evaluation Forum (IberLEF). The proposed system and its main components are described, and an in-depth hyperparameters analysis is conducted. The main results observed were: (i) the system obtained better results than the baseline model (multilingual BERT); (ii) ensemble models obtained better results than monolingual models; and (iii) an ensemble model considering all individual models and the best standardized values obtained the best accuracies and F1-scores for both tasks. This work obtained first place in both tasks at EXIST, with the highest accuracies (0.780 for task 1 and 0.658 for task 2) and F1-scores (F1-binary of 0.780 for task 1 and F1-macro of 0.579 for task 2).

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

This work presents HeadArtist for 3D head generation from text descriptions. With a landmark-guided ControlNet serving as the generative prior, we come up with an efficient pipeline that optimizes a parameterized 3D head model under the supervision of the prior distillation itself. We call such a process self score distillation (SSD). In detail, given a sampled camera pose, we first render an image and its corresponding landmarks from the head model, and add some particular level of noise onto the image. The noisy image, landmarks, and text condition are then fed into the frozen ControlNet twice for noise prediction. Two different classifier-free guidance (CFG) weights are applied during these two predictions, and the prediction difference offers a direction on how the rendered image can better match the text of interest. Experimental results suggest that our approach delivers high-quality 3D head sculptures with adequate geometry and photorealistic appearance, significantly outperforming state-ofthe-art methods. We also show that the same pipeline well supports editing the generated heads, including both geometry deformation and appearance change.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

Recent progress has shown that large-scale pre-training using contrastive image-text pairs can be a promising alternative for high-quality visual representation learning from natural language supervision. Benefiting from a broader source of supervision, this new paradigm exhibits impressive transferability to downstream classification tasks and datasets. However, the problem of transferring the knowledge learned from image-text pairs to more complex dense prediction tasks has barely been visited. In this work, we present a new framework for dense prediction by implicitly and explicitly leveraging the pre-trained knowledge from CLIP. Specifically, we convert the original image-text matching problem in CLIP to a pixel-text matching problem and use the pixel-text score maps to guide the learning of dense prediction models. By further using the contextual information from the image to prompt the language model, we are able to facilitate our model to better exploit the pre-trained knowledge. Our method is model-agnostic, which can be applied to arbitrary dense prediction systems and various pre-trained visual backbones including both CLIP models and ImageNet pre-trained models. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our methods on semantic segmentation, object detection, and instance segmentation tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/raoyongming/DenseCLIP

Cognitively inspired Natural Language Pro-cessing uses human-derived behavioral datalike eye-tracking data, which reflect the seman-tic representations of language in the humanbrain to augment the neural nets to solve arange of tasks spanning syntax and semanticswith the aim of teaching machines about lan-guage processing mechanisms. In this paper,we use the ZuCo 1.0 and ZuCo 2.0 dataset con-taining the eye-gaze features to explore differ-ent linguistic models to directly predict thesegaze features for each word with respect to itssentence. We tried different neural networkmodels with the words as inputs to predict thetargets. And after lots of experimentation andfeature engineering finally devised a novel ar-chitecture consisting of RoBERTa Token Clas-sifier with a dense layer on top for languagemodeling and a stand-alone model consistingof dense layers followed by a transformer layerfor the extra features we engineered. Finally,we took the mean of the outputs of both thesemodels to make the final predictions. We eval-uated the models using mean absolute error(MAE) and the R2 score for each target.

In this research, we investigate techniques to detect hate speech in movies. We introduce a new dataset collected from the subtitles of six movies, where each utterance is annotated either as hate, offensive or normal. We apply transfer learning techniques of domain adaptation and fine-tuning on existing social media datasets, namely from Twitter and Fox News. We evaluate different representations, i.e., Bag of Words (BoW), Bi-directional Long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM), and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) on 11k movie subtitles. The BERT model obtained the best macro-averaged F1-score of 77%. Hence, we show that transfer learning from the social media domain is efficacious in classifying hate and offensive speech in movies through subtitles.

In this paper we show how using satellite images can improve the accuracy of housing price estimation models. Using Los Angeles County's property assessment dataset, by transferring learning from an Inception-v3 model pretrained on ImageNet, we could achieve an improvement of ~10% in R-squared score compared to two baseline models that only use non-image features of the house.

We present a novel supervised word alignment method based on cross-language span prediction. We first formalize a word alignment problem as a collection of independent predictions from a token in the source sentence to a span in the target sentence. As this is equivalent to a SQuAD v2.0 style question answering task, we then solve this problem by using multilingual BERT, which is fine-tuned on a manually created gold word alignment data. We greatly improved the word alignment accuracy by adding the context of the token to the question. In the experiments using five word alignment datasets among Chinese, Japanese, German, Romanian, French, and English, we show that the proposed method significantly outperformed previous supervised and unsupervised word alignment methods without using any bitexts for pretraining. For example, we achieved an F1 score of 86.7 for the Chinese-English data, which is 13.3 points higher than the previous state-of-the-art supervised methods.

This paper introduces a new approach to using Large Language Models (LLMs) for classification tasks, which are typically handled using Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike ML models that rely heavily on data cleaning and feature engineering, this method streamlines the process using LLMs. This paper proposes a new concept called "Language Model Learning (LML)" powered by a new method called "Data-Augmented Prediction (DAP)". The classification is performed by LLMs using a method similar to humans manually exploring and understanding the data and deciding classifications using data as a reference. Training data is summarized and evaluated to determine the features that lead to the classification of each label the most. In the process of DAP, the system uses the data summary to automatically create a query, which is used to retrieve relevant rows from the dataset. A classification is generated by the LLM using data summary and relevant rows, ensuring satisfactory accuracy even with complex data. Usage of data summary and similar data in DAP ensures context-aware decision-making. The proposed method uses the words "Act as an Explainable Machine Learning Model" in the prompt to enhance the interpretability of the predictions by allowing users to review the logic behind each prediction. In some test cases, the system scored an accuracy above 90%, proving the effectiveness of the system and its potential to outperform conventional ML models in various scenarios. The code is available at https://github.com/Pro-GenAI/LML-DAP

This paper addresses a critical challenge in cybersecurity: the gap between vulnerability information represented by Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs) and the resulting cyberattack actions. CVEs provide insights into vulnerabilities, but often lack details on potential threat actions (tactics, techniques, and procedures, or TTPs) within the ATT&CK framework. This gap hinders accurate CVE categorization and proactive countermeasure initiation. The paper introduces the TTPpredictor tool, which uses innovative techniques to analyze CVE descriptions and infer plausible TTP attacks resulting from CVE exploitation. TTPpredictor overcomes challenges posed by limited labeled data and semantic disparities between CVE and TTP descriptions. It initially extracts threat actions from unstructured cyber threat reports using Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) techniques. These actions, along with their contextual attributes, are correlated with MITRE's attack functionality classes. This automated correlation facilitates the creation of labeled data, essential for categorizing novel threat actions into threat functionality classes and TTPs. The paper presents an empirical assessment, demonstrating TTPpredictor's effectiveness with accuracy rates of approximately 98% and F1-scores ranging from 95% to 98% in precise CVE classification to ATT&CK techniques. TTPpredictor outperforms state-of-the-art language model tools like ChatGPT. Overall, this paper offers a robust solution for linking CVEs to potential attack techniques, enhancing cybersecurity practitioners' ability to proactively identify and mitigate threats.

This paper contributes a novel and modularized learning-based method for aerial robots navigating cluttered environments containing hard-to-perceive thin obstacles without assuming access to a map or the full pose estimation of the robot. The proposed solution builds upon a semantically-enhanced Variational Autoencoder that is trained with both real-world and simulated depth images to compress the input data, while preserving semantically-labeled thin obstacles and handling invalid pixels in the depth sensor's output. This compressed representation, in addition to the robot's partial state involving its linear/angular velocities and its attitude are then utilized to train an uncertainty-aware 3D Collision Prediction Network in simulation to predict collision scores for candidate action sequences in a predefined motion primitives library. A set of simulation and experimental studies in cluttered environments with various sizes and types of obstacles, including multiple hard-to-perceive thin objects, were conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method and compare against an end-to-end trained baseline. The results demonstrate the benefits of the proposed semantically-enhanced deep collision prediction for learning-based autonomous navigation.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

This paper describes the performance of the team cs60075_team2 at SemEval 2021 Task 1 - Lexical Complexity Prediction. The main contribution of this paper is to fine-tune transformer-based language models pre-trained on several text corpora, some being general (E.g., Wikipedia, BooksCorpus), some being the corpora from which the CompLex Dataset was extracted, and others being from other specific domains such as Finance, Law, etc. We perform ablation studies on selecting the transformer models and how their individual complexity scores are aggregated to get the resulting complexity scores. Our method achieves a best Pearson Correlation of 0.784 in sub-task 1 (single word) and 0.836 in sub-task 2 (multiple word expressions).

Diffusion models are a new class of generative models, and have dramatically promoted image generation with unprecedented quality and diversity. Existing diffusion models mainly try to reconstruct input image from a corrupted one with a pixel-wise or feature-wise constraint along spatial axes. However, such point-based reconstruction may fail to make each predicted pixel/feature fully preserve its neighborhood context, impairing diffusion-based image synthesis. As a powerful source of automatic supervisory signal, context has been well studied for learning representations. Inspired by this, we for the first time propose ConPreDiff to improve diffusion-based image synthesis with context prediction. We explicitly reinforce each point to predict its neighborhood context (i.e., multi-stride features/tokens/pixels) with a context decoder at the end of diffusion denoising blocks in training stage, and remove the decoder for inference. In this way, each point can better reconstruct itself by preserving its semantic connections with neighborhood context. This new paradigm of ConPreDiff can generalize to arbitrary discrete and continuous diffusion backbones without introducing extra parameters in sampling procedure. Extensive experiments are conducted on unconditional image generation, text-to-image generation and image inpainting tasks. Our ConPreDiff consistently outperforms previous methods and achieves a new SOTA text-to-image generation results on MS-COCO, with a zero-shot FID score of 6.21.

Business Intelligence (BI) is crucial in modern enterprises and billion-dollar business. Traditionally, technical experts like database administrators would manually prepare BI-models (e.g., in star or snowflake schemas) that join tables in data warehouses, before less-technical business users can run analytics using end-user dashboarding tools. However, the popularity of self-service BI (e.g., Tableau and Power-BI) in recent years creates a strong demand for less technical end-users to build BI-models themselves. We develop an Auto-BI system that can accurately predict BI models given a set of input tables, using a principled graph-based optimization problem we propose called k-Min-Cost-Arborescence (k-MCA), which holistically considers both local join prediction and global schema-graph structures, leveraging a graph-theoretical structure called arborescence. While we prove k-MCA is intractable and inapproximate in general, we develop novel algorithms that can solve k-MCA optimally, which is shown to be efficient in practice with sub-second latency and can scale to the largest BI-models we encounter (with close to 100 tables). Auto-BI is rigorously evaluated on a unique dataset with over 100K real BI models we harvested, as well as on 4 popular TPC benchmarks. It is shown to be both efficient and accurate, achieving over 0.9 F1-score on both real and synthetic benchmarks.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Alongside neuroimaging such as MRI scans and PET, Alzheimer's disease (AD) datasets contain valuable tabular data including AD biomarkers and clinical assessments. Existing computer vision approaches struggle to utilize this additional information. To address these needs, we propose a generalizable framework for multimodal contrastive learning of image data and tabular data, a novel tabular attention module for amplifying and ranking salient features in tables, and the application of these techniques onto Alzheimer's disease prediction. Experimental evaulations demonstrate the strength of our framework by detecting Alzheimer's disease (AD) from over 882 MR image slices from the ADNI database. We take advantage of the high interpretability of tabular data and our novel tabular attention approach and through attribution of the attention scores for each row of the table, we note and rank the most predominant features. Results show that the model is capable of an accuracy of over 83.8%, almost a 10% increase from previous state of the art.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of classical machine learning models (CMLs) and large language models (LLMs) in predicting mortality associated with COVID-19 by utilizing a high-dimensional tabular dataset. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from 9,134 COVID-19 patients collected across four hospitals. Seven CML models, including XGBoost and random forest (RF), were trained and evaluated. The structured data was converted into text for zero-shot classification by eight LLMs, including GPT-4 and Mistral-7b. Additionally, Mistral-7b was fine-tuned using the QLoRA approach to enhance its predictive capabilities. Results: Among the CML models, XGBoost and RF achieved the highest accuracy, with F1 scores of 0.87 for internal validation and 0.83 for external validation. In the LLM category, GPT-4 was the top performer with an F1 score of 0.43. Fine-tuning Mistral-7b significantly improved its recall from 1% to 79%, resulting in an F1 score of 0.74, which was stable during external validation. Conclusion: While LLMs show moderate performance in zero-shot classification, fine-tuning can significantly enhance their effectiveness, potentially aligning them closer to CML models. However, CMLs still outperform LLMs in high-dimensional tabular data tasks.

In speech generation tasks, human subjective ratings, usually referred to as the opinion score, are considered the "gold standard" for speech quality evaluation, with the mean opinion score (MOS) serving as the primary evaluation metric. Due to the high cost of human annotation, several MOS prediction systems have emerged in the speech domain, demonstrating good performance. These MOS prediction models are trained using annotations from previous speech-related challenges. However, compared to the speech domain, the singing domain faces data scarcity and stricter copyright protections, leading to a lack of high-quality MOS-annotated datasets for singing. To address this, we propose SingMOS, a high-quality and diverse MOS dataset for singing, covering a range of Chinese and Japanese datasets. These synthesized vocals are generated using state-of-the-art models in singing synthesis, conversion, or resynthesis tasks and are rated by professional annotators alongside real vocals. Data analysis demonstrates the diversity and reliability of our dataset. Additionally, we conduct further exploration on SingMOS, providing insights for singing MOS prediction and guidance for the continued expansion of SingMOS.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Most knowledge graph completion (KGC) methods learn latent representations of entities and relations of a given graph by mapping them into a vector space. Although the majority of these methods focus on static knowledge graphs, a large number of publicly available KGs contain temporal information stating the time instant/period over which a certain fact has been true. Such graphs are often known as temporal knowledge graphs. Furthermore, knowledge graphs may also contain textual descriptions of entities and relations. Both temporal information and textual descriptions are not taken into account during representation learning by static KGC methods, and only structural information of the graph is leveraged. Recently, some studies have used temporal information to improve link prediction, yet they do not exploit textual descriptions and do not support inductive inference (prediction on entities that have not been seen in training). We propose a novel framework called TEMT that exploits the power of pre-trained language models (PLMs) for text-enhanced temporal knowledge graph completion. The knowledge stored in the parameters of a PLM allows TEMT to produce rich semantic representations of facts and to generalize on previously unseen entities. TEMT leverages textual and temporal information available in a KG, treats them separately, and fuses them to get plausibility scores of facts. Unlike previous approaches, TEMT effectively captures dependencies across different time points and enables predictions on unseen entities. To assess the performance of TEMT, we carried out several experiments including time interval prediction, both in transductive and inductive settings, and triple classification. The experimental results show that TEMT is competitive with the state-of-the-art.

With the increased applications of automatic speech recognition (ASR) in recent years, it is essential to automatically insert punctuation marks and remove disfluencies in transcripts, to improve the readability of the transcripts as well as the performance of subsequent applications, such as machine translation, dialogue systems, and so forth. In this paper, we propose a Controllable Time-delay Transformer (CT-Transformer) model that jointly completes the punctuation prediction and disfluency detection tasks in real time. The CT-Transformer model facilitates freezing partial outputs with controllable time delay to fulfill the real-time constraints in partial decoding required by subsequent applications. We further propose a fast decoding strategy to minimize latency while maintaining competitive performance. Experimental results on the IWSLT2011 benchmark dataset and an in-house Chinese annotated dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the previous state-of-the-art models on F-scores and achieves a competitive inference speed.

We present a data-driven, end-to-end approach to transaction-based dialog systems that performs at near-human levels in terms of verbal response quality and factual grounding accuracy. We show that two essential components of the system produce these results: a sufficiently large and diverse, in-domain labeled dataset, and a neural network-based, pre-trained model that generates both verbal responses and API call predictions. In terms of data, we introduce TicketTalk, a movie ticketing dialog dataset with 23,789 annotated conversations. The movie ticketing conversations range from completely open-ended and unrestricted to more structured, both in terms of their knowledge base, discourse features, and number of turns. In qualitative human evaluations, model-generated responses trained on just 10,000 TicketTalk dialogs were rated to "make sense" 86.5 percent of the time, almost the same as human responses in the same contexts. Our simple, API-focused annotation schema results in a much easier labeling task making it faster and more cost effective. It is also the key component for being able to predict API calls accurately. We handle factual grounding by incorporating API calls in the training data, allowing our model to learn which actions to take and when. Trained on the same 10,000-dialog set, the model's API call predictions were rated to be correct 93.9 percent of the time in our evaluations, surpassing the ratings for the corresponding human labels. We show how API prediction and response generation scores improve as the dataset size incrementally increases from 5000 to 21,000 dialogs. Our analysis also clearly illustrates the benefits of pre-training. We are publicly releasing the TicketTalk dataset with this paper to facilitate future work on transaction-based dialogs.

In visual decision making, high-level features, such as object categories, have a strong influence on choice. However, the impact of low-level features on behavior is less understood partly due to the high correlation between high- and low-level features in the stimuli presented (e.g., objects of the same category are more likely to share low-level features). To disentangle these effects, we propose a method that de-correlates low- and high-level visual properties in a novel set of stimuli. Our method uses two Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) as candidate models of the ventral visual stream: the CORnet-S that has high neural predictivity in high-level, IT-like responses and the VGG-16 that has high neural predictivity in low-level responses. Triplets (root, image1, image2) of stimuli are parametrized by the level of low- and high-level similarity of images extracted from the different layers. These stimuli are then used in a decision-making task where participants are tasked to choose the most similar-to-the-root image. We found that different networks show differing abilities to predict the effects of low-versus-high-level similarity: while CORnet-S outperforms VGG-16 in explaining human choices based on high-level similarity, VGG-16 outperforms CORnet-S in explaining human choices based on low-level similarity. Using Brain-Score, we observed that the behavioral prediction abilities of different layers of these networks qualitatively corresponded to their ability to explain neural activity at different levels of the visual hierarchy. In summary, our algorithm for stimulus set generation enables the study of how different representations in the visual stream affect high-level cognitive behaviors.

We present a method for detecting objects in images using a single deep neural network. Our approach, named SSD, discretizes the output space of bounding boxes into a set of default boxes over different aspect ratios and scales per feature map location. At prediction time, the network generates scores for the presence of each object category in each default box and produces adjustments to the box to better match the object shape. Additionally, the network combines predictions from multiple feature maps with different resolutions to naturally handle objects of various sizes. Our SSD model is simple relative to methods that require object proposals because it completely eliminates proposal generation and subsequent pixel or feature resampling stage and encapsulates all computation in a single network. This makes SSD easy to train and straightforward to integrate into systems that require a detection component. Experimental results on the PASCAL VOC, MS COCO, and ILSVRC datasets confirm that SSD has comparable accuracy to methods that utilize an additional object proposal step and is much faster, while providing a unified framework for both training and inference. Compared to other single stage methods, SSD has much better accuracy, even with a smaller input image size. For 300times 300 input, SSD achieves 72.1% mAP on VOC2007 test at 58 FPS on a Nvidia Titan X and for 500times 500 input, SSD achieves 75.1% mAP, outperforming a comparable state of the art Faster R-CNN model. Code is available at https://github.com/weiliu89/caffe/tree/ssd .

Analytical framework for predicting General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) performance on modern GPUs, focusing on runtime, power consumption, and energy efficiency. Our study employs two approaches: a custom-implemented tiled matrix multiplication kernel for fundamental analysis, and NVIDIA's CUTLASS library for comprehensive performance data collection across advanced configurations. Using the NVIDIA RTX 4070 as our experimental platform, we developed a Random Forest-based prediction model with multi-output regression capability. Through analysis of both naive tiled matrix multiplication with varying tile sizes (1 to 32) and 16,128 CUTLASS GEMM operations across diverse configurations, we identified critical performance patterns related to matrix dimensions, thread block configurations, and memory access patterns. Our framework achieved exceptional accuracy with an R^2 score of 0.98 for runtime prediction (mean error 15.57%) and 0.78 for power prediction (median error 5.42%). The system successfully predicts performance across matrix sizes, demonstrating robust scaling behavior. Our results show that optimal tile size selection can improve performance by up to 3.2x while reducing power consumption by 22% compared to baseline configurations. Analysis of shared memory utilization and SM occupancy reveals that tile sizes of 16x16 achieve the best balance between parallelism and resource usage. The implementation of our framework, including prediction models and analysis tools, is available as an open-source project at GPPerf [https://github.com/pavlyhalim/GPPerf].

Research into the prediction and analysis of perceived audio quality is hampered by the scarcity of openly available datasets of audio signals accompanied by corresponding subjective quality scores. To address this problem, we present the Open Dataset of Audio Quality (ODAQ), a new dataset containing the results of a MUSHRA listening test conducted with expert listeners from 2 international laboratories. ODAQ contains 240 audio samples and corresponding quality scores. Each audio sample is rated by 26 listeners. The audio samples are stereo audio signals sampled at 44.1 or 48 kHz and are processed by a total of 6 method classes, each operating at different quality levels. The processing method classes are designed to generate quality degradations possibly encountered during audio coding and source separation, and the quality levels for each method class span the entire quality range. The diversity of the processing methods, the large span of quality levels, the high sampling frequency, and the pool of international listeners make ODAQ particularly suited for further research into subjective and objective audio quality. The dataset is released with permissive licenses, and the software used to conduct the listening test is also made publicly available.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

Many clinical tasks require an understanding of specialized data, such as medical images and genomics, which is not typically found in general-purpose large multimodal models. Building upon Gemini's multimodal models, we develop several models within the new Med-Gemini family that inherit core capabilities of Gemini and are optimized for medical use via fine-tuning with 2D and 3D radiology, histopathology, ophthalmology, dermatology and genomic data. Med-Gemini-2D sets a new standard for AI-based chest X-ray (CXR) report generation based on expert evaluation, exceeding previous best results across two separate datasets by an absolute margin of 1% and 12%, where 57% and 96% of AI reports on normal cases, and 43% and 65% on abnormal cases, are evaluated as "equivalent or better" than the original radiologists' reports. We demonstrate the first ever large multimodal model-based report generation for 3D computed tomography (CT) volumes using Med-Gemini-3D, with 53% of AI reports considered clinically acceptable, although additional research is needed to meet expert radiologist reporting quality. Beyond report generation, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses the previous best performance in CXR visual question answering (VQA) and performs well in CXR classification and radiology VQA, exceeding SoTA or baselines on 17 of 20 tasks. In histopathology, ophthalmology, and dermatology image classification, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses baselines across 18 out of 20 tasks and approaches task-specific model performance. Beyond imaging, Med-Gemini-Polygenic outperforms the standard linear polygenic risk score-based approach for disease risk prediction and generalizes to genetically correlated diseases for which it has never been trained. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical medical domain, our results highlight the potential of Med-Gemini across a wide range of medical tasks.

We propose WHISPER-GPT: A generative large language model (LLM) for speech and music that allows us to work with continuous audio representations and discrete tokens simultaneously as part of a single architecture. There has been a huge surge in generative audio, speech, and music models that utilize discrete audio tokens derived from neural compression algorithms, e.g. ENCODEC. However, one of the major drawbacks of this approach is handling the context length. It blows up for high-fidelity generative architecture if one has to account for all the audio contents at various frequencies for the next token prediction. By combining continuous audio representation like the spectrogram and discrete acoustic tokens, we retain the best of both worlds: Have all the information needed from the audio at a specific time instance in a single token, yet allow LLM to predict the future token to allow for sampling and other benefits discrete space provides. We show how our architecture improves the perplexity and negative log-likelihood scores for the next token prediction compared to a token-based LLM for speech and music.

This technical report describes our QuAVF@NTU-NVIDIA submission to the Ego4D Talking to Me (TTM) Challenge 2023. Based on the observation from the TTM task and the provided dataset, we propose to use two separate models to process the input videos and audio. By doing so, we can utilize all the labeled training data, including those without bounding box labels. Furthermore, we leverage the face quality score from a facial landmark prediction model for filtering noisy face input data. The face quality score is also employed in our proposed quality-aware fusion for integrating the results from two branches. With the simple architecture design, our model achieves 67.4% mean average precision (mAP) on the test set, which ranks first on the leaderboard and outperforms the baseline method by a large margin. Code is available at: https://github.com/hsi-che-lin/Ego4D-QuAVF-TTM-CVPR23

Generative models of natural images have progressed towards high fidelity samples by the strong leveraging of scale. We attempt to carry this success to the field of video modeling by showing that large Generative Adversarial Networks trained on the complex Kinetics-600 dataset are able to produce video samples of substantially higher complexity and fidelity than previous work. Our proposed model, Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), scales to longer and higher resolution videos by leveraging a computationally efficient decomposition of its discriminator. We evaluate on the related tasks of video synthesis and video prediction, and achieve new state-of-the-art Fr\'echet Inception Distance for prediction for Kinetics-600, as well as state-of-the-art Inception Score for synthesis on the UCF-101 dataset, alongside establishing a strong baseline for synthesis on Kinetics-600.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

The NeuroSAT neural network architecture was recently introduced for predicting properties of propositional formulae. When trained to predict the satisfiability of toy problems, it was shown to find solutions and unsatisfiable cores on its own. However, the authors saw "no obvious path" to using the architecture to improve the state-of-the-art. In this work, we train a simplified NeuroSAT architecture to directly predict the unsatisfiable cores of real problems. We modify several high-performance SAT solvers to periodically replace their variable activity scores with NeuroSAT's prediction of how likely the variables are to appear in an unsatisfiable core. The modified MiniSat solves 10% more problems on SAT-COMP 2018 within the standard 5,000 second timeout than the original does. The modified Glucose solves 11% more problems than the original, while the modified Z3 solves 6% more. The gains are even greater when the training is specialized for a specific distribution of problems; on a benchmark of hard problems from a scheduling domain, the modified Glucose solves 20% more problems than the original does within a one-hour timeout. Our results demonstrate that NeuroSAT can provide effective guidance to high-performance SAT solvers on real problems.

Deep learning models have shown promise in histopathology image analysis, but their opaque decision-making process poses challenges in high-risk medical scenarios. Here we introduce HIPPO, an explainable AI method that interrogates attention-based multiple instance learning (ABMIL) models in computational pathology by generating counterfactual examples through tissue patch modifications in whole slide images. Applying HIPPO to ABMIL models trained to detect breast cancer metastasis reveals that they may overlook small tumors and can be misled by non-tumor tissue, while attention mapsx2014widely used for interpretationx2014often highlight regions that do not directly influence predictions. By interpreting ABMIL models trained on a prognostic prediction task, HIPPO identified tissue areas with stronger prognostic effects than high-attention regions, which sometimes showed counterintuitive influences on risk scores. These findings demonstrate HIPPO's capacity for comprehensive model evaluation, bias detection, and quantitative hypothesis testing. HIPPO greatly expands the capabilities of explainable AI tools to assess the trustworthy and reliable development, deployment, and regulation of weakly-supervised models in computational pathology.

Deep Learning (DL) in neuroimaging has become increasingly relevant for detecting neurological conditions and neurodegenerative disorders. One of the most predominant biomarkers in neuroimaging is represented by brain age, which has been shown to be a good indicator for different conditions, such as Alzheimer's Disease. Using brain age for weakly supervised pre-training of DL models in transfer learning settings has also recently shown promising results, especially when dealing with data scarcity of different conditions. On the other hand, anatomical information of brain MRIs (e.g. cortical thickness) can provide important information for learning good representations that can be transferred to many downstream tasks. In this work, we propose AnatCL, an anatomical foundation model for brain MRIs that i.) leverages anatomical information in a weakly contrastive learning approach, and ii.) achieves state-of-the-art performances across many different downstream tasks. To validate our approach we consider 12 different downstream tasks for the diagnosis of different conditions such as Alzheimer's Disease, autism spectrum disorder, and schizophrenia. Furthermore, we also target the prediction of 10 different clinical assessment scores using structural MRI data. Our findings show that incorporating anatomical information during pre-training leads to more robust and generalizable representations. Pre-trained models can be found at: https://github.com/EIDOSLAB/AnatCL.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Online misinformation poses a global risk with harmful implications for society. Ordinary social media users are known to actively reply to misinformation posts with counter-misinformation messages, which is shown to be effective in containing the spread of misinformation. Such a practice is defined as "social correction". Nevertheless, it remains unknown how users respond to social correction in real-world scenarios, especially, will it have a corrective or backfire effect on users. Investigating this research question is pivotal for developing and refining strategies that maximize the efficacy of social correction initiatives. To fill this gap, we conduct an in-depth study to characterize and predict the user response to social correction in a data-driven manner through the lens of X (Formerly Twitter), where the user response is instantiated as the reply that is written toward a counter-misinformation message. Particularly, we first create a novel dataset with 55, 549 triples of misinformation tweets, counter-misinformation replies, and responses to counter-misinformation replies, and then curate a taxonomy to illustrate different kinds of user responses. Next, fine-grained statistical analysis of reply linguistic and engagement features as well as repliers' user attributes is conducted to illustrate the characteristics that are significant in determining whether a reply will have a corrective or backfire effect. Finally, we build a user response prediction model to identify whether a social correction will be corrective, neutral, or have a backfire effect, which achieves a promising F1 score of 0.816. Our work enables stakeholders to monitor and predict user responses effectively, thus guiding the use of social correction to maximize their corrective impact and minimize backfire effects. The code and data is accessible on https://github.com/claws-lab/response-to-social-correction.

Pyrolysis techniques have served to be a groundbreaking technique for effectively utilising natural and man-made biomass products like plastics, wood, crop residue, fruit peels etc. Recent advancements have shown a greater yield of essential products like biochar, bio-oil and other non-condensable gases by blending different biomasses in a certain ratio. This synergy effect of combining two pyrolytic raw materials i.e co-pyrolysis of algae and wood biomass has been systematically studied and grouped into 3 phases in this research paper-kinetic analysis of co-pyrolysis, correlation among proximate and ultimate analysis with bio-char yield and lastly grouping of different weight ratios based on biochar yield up to a certain percentage. Different ML and DL algorithms have been utilized for regression and classification techniques to give a comprehensive overview of the effect of the synergy of two different biomass materials on biochar yield. For the first phase, the best prediction of biochar yield was obtained by using a decision tree regressor with a perfect MSE score of 0.00, followed by a gradient-boosting regressor. The second phase was analyzed using both ML and DL techniques. Within ML, SVR proved to be the most convenient model with an accuracy score of 0.972 with DNN employed for deep learning technique. Finally, for the third phase, binary classification was applied to biochar yield with and without heating rate for biochar yield percentage above and below 40%. The best technique for ML was Support Vector followed by Random forest while ANN was the most suitable Deep Learning Technique.

Text classification is a fundamental language task in Natural Language Processing. A variety of sequential models is capable making good predictions yet there is lack of connection between language semantics and prediction results. This paper proposes a novel influence score (I-score), a greedy search algorithm called Backward Dropping Algorithm (BDA), and a novel feature engineering technique called the "dagger technique". First, the paper proposes a novel influence score (I-score) to detect and search for the important language semantics in text document that are useful for making good prediction in text classification tasks. Next, a greedy search algorithm called the Backward Dropping Algorithm is proposed to handle long-term dependencies in the dataset. Moreover, the paper proposes a novel engineering technique called the "dagger technique" that fully preserve the relationship between explanatory variable and response variable. The proposed techniques can be further generalized into any feed-forward Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and any neural network. A real-world application on the Internet Movie Database (IMDB) is used and the proposed methods are applied to improve prediction performance with an 81% error reduction comparing with other popular peers if I-score and "dagger technique" are not implemented.

We present a new human-human dialogue dataset - PhotoChat, the first dataset that casts light on the photo sharing behavior in onlin emessaging. PhotoChat contains 12k dialogues, each of which is paired with a user photo that is shared during the conversation. Based on this dataset, we propose two tasks to facilitate research on image-text modeling: a photo-sharing intent prediction task that predicts whether one intends to share a photo in the next conversation turn, and a photo retrieval task that retrieves the most relevant photo according to the dialogue context. In addition, for both tasks, we provide baseline models using the state-of-the-art models and report their benchmark performances. The best image retrieval model achieves 10.4% recall@1 (out of 1000 candidates) and the best photo intent prediction model achieves 58.1% F1 score, indicating that the dataset presents interesting yet challenging real-world problems. We are releasing PhotoChat to facilitate future research work among the community.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Recent studies have demonstrated the exceptional potentials of leveraging human preference datasets to refine text-to-image generative models, enhancing the alignment between generated images and textual prompts. Despite these advances, current human preference datasets are either prohibitively expensive to construct or suffer from a lack of diversity in preference dimensions, resulting in limited applicability for instruction tuning in open-source text-to-image generative models and hinder further exploration. To address these challenges and promote the alignment of generative models through instruction tuning, we leverage multimodal large language models to create VisionPrefer, a high-quality and fine-grained preference dataset that captures multiple preference aspects. We aggregate feedback from AI annotators across four aspects: prompt-following, aesthetic, fidelity, and harmlessness to construct VisionPrefer. To validate the effectiveness of VisionPrefer, we train a reward model VP-Score over VisionPrefer to guide the training of text-to-image generative models and the preference prediction accuracy of VP-Score is comparable to human annotators. Furthermore, we use two reinforcement learning methods to supervised fine-tune generative models to evaluate the performance of VisionPrefer, and extensive experimental results demonstrate that VisionPrefer significantly improves text-image alignment in compositional image generation across diverse aspects, e.g., aesthetic, and generalizes better than previous human-preference metrics across various image distributions. Moreover, VisionPrefer indicates that the integration of AI-generated synthetic data as a supervisory signal is a promising avenue for achieving improved alignment with human preferences in vision generative models.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean R^2 score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

We introduce a new visual-interactive tool: Explainable Labeling Assistant (XLabel) that takes an explainable machine learning approach to data labeling. The main component of XLabel is the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a predictive model that can calculate the contribution of each input feature towards the final prediction. As a case study, we use XLabel to predict the labels of four non-communicable diseases (NCDs): diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and dyslipidemia. We demonstrate that EBM is an excellent choice of predictive model by comparing it against a rule-based and four other machine learning models. By performing 5-fold cross-validation on 427 medical records, EBM's prediction accuracy, precision, and F1-score are greater than 0.95 in all four NCDs. It performed as well as two black-box models and outperformed the other models in these metrics. In an additional experiment, when 40% of the records were intentionally mislabeled, EBM could recall the correct labels of more than 90% of these records.

This study provides an efficient approach for using text data to calculate patent-to-patent (p2p) technological similarity, and presents a hybrid framework for leveraging the resulting p2p similarity for applications such as semantic search and automated patent classification. We create embeddings using Sentence-BERT (SBERT) based on patent claims. We leverage SBERTs efficiency in creating embedding distance measures to map p2p similarity in large sets of patent data. We deploy our framework for classification with a simple Nearest Neighbors (KNN) model that predicts Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) of a patent based on the class assignment of the K patents with the highest p2p similarity. We thereby validate that the p2p similarity captures their technological features in terms of CPC overlap, and at the same demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for automatic patent classification based on text data. Furthermore, the presented classification framework is simple and the results easy to interpret and evaluate by end-users. In the out-of-sample model validation, we are able to perform a multi-label prediction of all assigned CPC classes on the subclass (663) level on 1,492,294 patents with an accuracy of 54% and F1 score > 66%, which suggests that our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art in text-based multi-label and multi-class patent classification. We furthermore discuss the applicability of the presented framework for semantic IP search, patent landscaping, and technology intelligence. We finally point towards a future research agenda for leveraging multi-source patent embeddings, their appropriateness across applications, as well as to improve and validate patent embeddings by creating domain-expert curated Semantic Textual Similarity (STS) benchmark datasets.

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) has been a default technique in various visual generative models, yet it requires inference from both conditional and unconditional models during sampling. We propose to build visual models that are free from guided sampling. The resulting algorithm, Guidance-Free Training (GFT), matches the performance of CFG while reducing sampling to a single model, halving the computational cost. Unlike previous distillation-based approaches that rely on pretrained CFG networks, GFT enables training directly from scratch. GFT is simple to implement. It retains the same maximum likelihood objective as CFG and differs mainly in the parameterization of conditional models. Implementing GFT requires only minimal modifications to existing codebases, as most design choices and hyperparameters are directly inherited from CFG. Our extensive experiments across five distinct visual models demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of GFT. Across domains of diffusion, autoregressive, and masked-prediction modeling, GFT consistently achieves comparable or even lower FID scores, with similar diversity-fidelity trade-offs compared with CFG baselines, all while being guidance-free. Code will be available at https://github.com/thu-ml/GFT.

Prompt-based fine-tuning has become an essential method for eliciting information encoded in pre-trained language models for a variety of tasks, including text classification. For multi-class classification tasks, prompt-based fine-tuning under low-resource scenarios has resulted in performance levels comparable to those of fully fine-tuning methods. Previous studies have used crafted prompt templates and verbalizers, mapping from the label terms space to the class space, to solve the classification problem as a masked language modeling task. However, cross-domain and fine-grained prompt-based fine-tuning with an automatically enriched verbalizer remains unexplored, mainly due to the difficulty and costs of manually selecting domain label terms for the verbalizer, which requires humans with domain expertise. To address this challenge, we introduce SciPrompt, a framework designed to automatically retrieve scientific topic-related terms for low-resource text classification tasks. To this end, we select semantically correlated and domain-specific label terms within the context of scientific literature for verbalizer augmentation. Furthermore, we propose a new verbalization strategy that uses correlation scores as additional weights to enhance the prediction performance of the language model during model tuning. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art, prompt-based fine-tuning methods on scientific text classification tasks under few and zero-shot settings, especially in classifying fine-grained and emerging scientific topics.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

We find arithmetic ability resides within a limited number of attention heads, with each head specializing in distinct operations. To delve into the reason, we introduce the Comparative Neuron Analysis (CNA) method, which identifies an internal logic chain consisting of four distinct stages from input to prediction: feature enhancing with shallow FFN neurons, feature transferring by shallow attention layers, feature predicting by arithmetic heads, and prediction enhancing among deep FFN neurons. Moreover, we identify the human-interpretable FFN neurons within both feature-enhancing and feature-predicting stages. These findings lead us to investigate the mechanism of LoRA, revealing that it enhances prediction probabilities by amplifying the coefficient scores of FFN neurons related to predictions. Finally, we apply our method in model pruning for arithmetic tasks and model editing for reducing gender bias. Code is on https://github.com/zepingyu0512/arithmetic-mechanism.

In this paper, we present a new objective prediction model for synthetic speech naturalness. It can be used to evaluate Text-To-Speech or Voice Conversion systems and works language independently. The model is trained end-to-end and based on a CNN-LSTM network that previously showed to give good results for speech quality estimation. We trained and tested the model on 16 different datasets, such as from the Blizzard Challenge and the Voice Conversion Challenge. Further, we show that the reliability of deep learning-based naturalness prediction can be improved by transfer learning from speech quality prediction models that are trained on objective POLQA scores. The proposed model is made publicly available and can, for example, be used to evaluate different TTS system configurations.

Word frequency is a key variable in psycholinguistics, useful for modeling human familiarity with words even in the era of large language models (LLMs). Frequency in film subtitles has proved to be a particularly good approximation of everyday language exposure. For many languages, however, film subtitles are not easily available, or are overwhelmingly translated from English. We demonstrate that frequencies extracted from carefully processed YouTube subtitles provide an approximation comparable to, and often better than, the best currently available resources. Moreover, they are available for languages for which a high-quality subtitle or speech corpus does not exist. We use YouTube subtitles to construct frequency norms for five diverse languages, Chinese, English, Indonesian, Japanese, and Spanish, and evaluate their correlation with lexical decision time, word familiarity, and lexical complexity. In addition to being strongly correlated with two psycholinguistic variables, a simple linear regression on the new frequencies achieves a new high score on a lexical complexity prediction task in English and Japanese, surpassing both models trained on film subtitle frequencies and the LLM GPT-4. Our code, the frequency lists, fastText word embeddings, and statistical language models are freely available at https://github.com/naist-nlp/tubelex.

We propose a novel task for generating 3D dance movements that simultaneously incorporate both text and music modalities. Unlike existing works that generate dance movements using a single modality such as music, our goal is to produce richer dance movements guided by the instructive information provided by the text. However, the lack of paired motion data with both music and text modalities limits the ability to generate dance movements that integrate both. To alleviate this challenge, we propose to utilize a 3D human motion VQ-VAE to project the motions of the two datasets into a latent space consisting of quantized vectors, which effectively mix the motion tokens from the two datasets with different distributions for training. Additionally, we propose a cross-modal transformer to integrate text instructions into motion generation architecture for generating 3D dance movements without degrading the performance of music-conditioned dance generation. To better evaluate the quality of the generated motion, we introduce two novel metrics, namely Motion Prediction Distance (MPD) and Freezing Score, to measure the coherence and freezing percentage of the generated motion. Extensive experiments show that our approach can generate realistic and coherent dance movements conditioned on both text and music while maintaining comparable performance with the two single modalities. Code will be available at: https://garfield-kh.github.io/TM2D/.

Abugida refers to a phonogram writing system where each syllable is represented using a single consonant or typographic ligature, along with a default vowel or optional diacritic(s) to denote other vowels. However, texting in these languages has some unique challenges in spite of the advent of devices with soft keyboard supporting custom key layouts. The number of characters in these languages is large enough to require characters to be spread over multiple views in the layout. Having to switch between views many times to type a single word hinders the natural thought process. This prevents popular usage of native keyboard layouts. On the other hand, supporting romanized scripts (native words transcribed using Latin characters) with language model based suggestions is also set back by the lack of uniform romanization rules. To this end, we propose a disambiguation algorithm and showcase its usefulness in two novel mutually non-exclusive input methods for languages natively using the abugida writing system: (a) disambiguation of ambiguous input for abugida scripts, and (b) disambiguation of word variants in romanized scripts. We benchmark these approaches using public datasets, and show an improvement in typing speed by 19.49%, 25.13%, and 14.89%, in Hindi, Bengali, and Thai, respectively, using Ambiguous Input, owing to the human ease of locating keys combined with the efficiency of our inference method. Our Word Variant Disambiguation (WDA) maps valid variants of romanized words, previously treated as Out-of-Vocab, to a vocabulary of 100k words with high accuracy, leading to an increase in Error Correction F1 score by 10.03% and Next Word Prediction (NWP) by 62.50% on average.

Books are typically segmented into chapters and sections, representing coherent subnarratives and topics. We investigate the task of predicting chapter boundaries, as a proxy for the general task of segmenting long texts. We build a Project Gutenberg chapter segmentation data set of 9,126 English novels, using a hybrid approach combining neural inference and rule matching to recognize chapter title headers in books, achieving an F1-score of 0.77 on this task. Using this annotated data as ground truth after removing structural cues, we present cut-based and neural methods for chapter segmentation, achieving an F1-score of 0.453 on the challenging task of exact break prediction over book-length documents. Finally, we reveal interesting historical trends in the chapter structure of novels.

While making a tremendous impact in various fields, deep neural networks usually require large amounts of labeled data for training which are expensive to collect in many applications, especially in the medical domain. Unlabeled data, on the other hand, is much more abundant. Semi-supervised learning techniques, such as co-training, could provide a powerful tool to leverage unlabeled data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, uncertainty-aware multi-view co-training (UMCT), to address semi-supervised learning on 3D data, such as volumetric data from medical imaging. In our work, co-training is achieved by exploiting multi-viewpoint consistency of 3D data. We generate different views by rotating or permuting the 3D data and utilize asymmetrical 3D kernels to encourage diversified features in different sub-networks. In addition, we propose an uncertainty-weighted label fusion mechanism to estimate the reliability of each view's prediction with Bayesian deep learning. As one view requires the supervision from other views in co-training, our self-adaptive approach computes a confidence score for the prediction of each unlabeled sample in order to assign a reliable pseudo label. Thus, our approach can take advantage of unlabeled data during training. We show the effectiveness of our proposed semi-supervised method on several public datasets from medical image segmentation tasks (NIH pancreas & LiTS liver tumor dataset). Meanwhile, a fully-supervised method based on our approach achieved state-of-the-art performances on both the LiTS liver tumor segmentation and the Medical Segmentation Decathlon (MSD) challenge, demonstrating the robustness and value of our framework, even when fully supervised training is feasible.

Financial market predictions utilize historical data to anticipate future stock prices and market trends. Traditionally, these predictions have focused on the statistical analysis of quantitative factors, such as stock prices, trading volumes, inflation rates, and changes in industrial production. Recent advancements in large language models motivate the integrated financial analysis of both sentiment data, particularly market news, and numerical factors. Nonetheless, this methodology frequently encounters constraints due to the paucity of extensive datasets that amalgamate both quantitative and qualitative sentiment analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a large-scale financial dataset, namely, Financial News and Stock Price Integration Dataset (FNSPID). It comprises 29.7 million stock prices and 15.7 million time-aligned financial news records for 4,775 S&P500 companies, covering the period from 1999 to 2023, sourced from 4 stock market news websites. We demonstrate that FNSPID excels existing stock market datasets in scale and diversity while uniquely incorporating sentiment information. Through financial analysis experiments on FNSPID, we propose: (1) the dataset's size and quality significantly boost market prediction accuracy; (2) adding sentiment scores modestly enhances performance on the transformer-based model; (3) a reproducible procedure that can update the dataset. Completed work, code, documentation, and examples are available at github.com/Zdong104/FNSPID. FNSPID offers unprecedented opportunities for the financial research community to advance predictive modeling and analysis.

Within the context of autonomous driving, encountering unknown objects becomes inevitable during deployment in the open world. Therefore, it is crucial to equip standard semantic segmentation models with anomaly awareness. Many previous approaches have utilized synthetic out-of-distribution (OoD) data augmentation to tackle this problem. In this work, we advance the OoD synthesis process by reducing the domain gap between the OoD data and driving scenes, effectively mitigating the style difference that might otherwise act as an obvious shortcut during training. Additionally, we propose a simple fine-tuning loss that effectively induces a pre-trained semantic segmentation model to generate a ``none of the given classes" prediction, leveraging per-pixel OoD scores for anomaly segmentation. With minimal fine-tuning effort, our pipeline enables the use of pre-trained models for anomaly segmentation while maintaining the performance on the original task.

Semantic search for candidate retrieval is an important yet neglected problem in retrieval-based Chatbots, which aims to select a bunch of candidate responses efficiently from a large pool. The existing bottleneck is to ensure the model architecture having two points: 1) rich interactions between a query and a response to produce query-relevant responses; 2) ability of separately projecting the query and the response into latent spaces to apply efficiently in semantic search during online inference. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel approach, called Multitask-based Semantic Search Neural Network (MSSNN) for candidate retrieval, which accomplishes query-response interactions through multi-tasks. The method employs a Seq2Seq modeling task to learn a good query encoder, and then performs a word prediction task to build response embeddings, finally conducts a simple matching model to form the dot-product scorer. Experimental studies have demonstrated the potential of the proposed approach.

Endowing chatbots with a consistent personality plays a vital role for agents to deliver human-like interactions. However, existing personalized approaches commonly generate responses in light of static predefined personas depicted with textual description, which may severely restrict the interactivity of human and the chatbot, especially when the agent needs to answer the query excluded in the predefined personas, which is so-called out-of-predefined persona problem (named OOP for simplicity). To alleviate the problem, in this paper we propose a novel retrieval-to-prediction paradigm consisting of two subcomponents, namely, (1) Persona Retrieval Model (PRM), it retrieves a persona from a global collection based on a Natural Language Inference (NLI) model, the inferred persona is consistent with the predefined personas; and (2) Posterior-scored Transformer (PS-Transformer), it adopts a persona posterior distribution that further considers the actual personas used in the ground response, maximally mitigating the gap between training and inferring. Furthermore, we present a dataset called IT-ConvAI2 that first highlights the OOP problem in personalized dialogue. Extensive experiments on both IT-ConvAI2 and ConvAI2 demonstrate that our proposed model yields considerable improvements in both automatic metrics and human evaluations.

Detecting customized moments and highlights from videos given natural language (NL) user queries is an important but under-studied topic. One of the challenges in pursuing this direction is the lack of annotated data. To address this issue, we present the Query-based Video Highlights (QVHIGHLIGHTS) dataset. It consists of over 10,000 YouTube videos, covering a wide range of topics, from everyday activities and travel in lifestyle vlog videos to social and political activities in news videos. Each video in the dataset is annotated with: (1) a human-written free-form NL query, (2) relevant moments in the video w.r.t. the query, and (3) five-point scale saliency scores for all query-relevant clips. This comprehensive annotation enables us to develop and evaluate systems that detect relevant moments as well as salient highlights for diverse, flexible user queries. We also present a strong baseline for this task, Moment-DETR, a transformer encoder-decoder model that views moment retrieval as a direct set prediction problem, taking extracted video and query representations as inputs and predicting moment coordinates and saliency scores end-to-end. While our model does not utilize any human prior, we show that it performs competitively when compared to well-engineered architectures. With weakly supervised pretraining using ASR captions, MomentDETR substantially outperforms previous methods. Lastly, we present several ablations and visualizations of Moment-DETR. Data and code is publicly available at https://github.com/jayleicn/moment_detr

Large language models are limited by challenges in factuality and hallucinations to be directly employed off-the-shelf for judging the veracity of news articles, where factual accuracy is paramount. In this work, we propose DELL that identifies three key stages in misinformation detection where LLMs could be incorporated as part of the pipeline: 1) LLMs could generate news reactions to represent diverse perspectives and simulate user-news interaction networks; 2) LLMs could generate explanations for proxy tasks (e.g., sentiment, stance) to enrich the contexts of news articles and produce experts specializing in various aspects of news understanding; 3) LLMs could merge task-specific experts and provide an overall prediction by incorporating the predictions and confidence scores of varying experts. Extensive experiments on seven datasets with three LLMs demonstrate that DELL outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by up to 16.8\% in macro f1-score. Further analysis reveals that the generated reactions and explanations are greatly helpful in misinformation detection, while our proposed LLM-guided expert merging helps produce better-calibrated predictions.

Task-oriented dialog systems need to know when a query falls outside their range of supported intents, but current text classification corpora only define label sets that cover every example. We introduce a new dataset that includes queries that are out-of-scope---i.e., queries that do not fall into any of the system's supported intents. This poses a new challenge because models cannot assume that every query at inference time belongs to a system-supported intent class. Our dataset also covers 150 intent classes over 10 domains, capturing the breadth that a production task-oriented agent must handle. We evaluate a range of benchmark classifiers on our dataset along with several different out-of-scope identification schemes. We find that while the classifiers perform well on in-scope intent classification, they struggle to identify out-of-scope queries. Our dataset and evaluation fill an important gap in the field, offering a way of more rigorously and realistically benchmarking text classification in task-driven dialog systems.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Fine-tuning of pre-trained transformer models has become the standard approach for solving common NLP tasks. Most of the existing approaches rely on a randomly initialized classifier on top of such networks. We argue that this fine-tuning procedure is sub-optimal as the pre-trained model has no prior on the specific classifier labels, while it might have already learned an intrinsic textual representation of the task. In this paper, we introduce a new scoring method that casts a plausibility ranking task in a full-text format and leverages the masked language modeling head tuned during the pre-training phase. We study commonsense reasoning tasks where the model must rank a set of hypotheses given a premise, focusing on the COPA, Swag, HellaSwag and CommonsenseQA datasets. By exploiting our scoring method without fine-tuning, we are able to produce strong baselines (e.g. 80% test accuracy on COPA) that are comparable to supervised approaches. Moreover, when fine-tuning directly on the proposed scoring function, we show that our method provides a much more stable training phase across random restarts (e.g times 10 standard deviation reduction on COPA test accuracy) and requires less annotated data than the standard classifier approach to reach equivalent performances.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

Within the scope of natural language processing, the domain of multi-label text classification is uniquely challenging due to its expansive and uneven label distribution. The complexity deepens due to the demand for an extensive set of annotated data for training an advanced deep learning model, especially in specialized fields where the labeling task can be labor-intensive and often requires domain-specific knowledge. Addressing these challenges, our study introduces a novel deep active learning strategy, capitalizing on the Beta family of proper scoring rules within the Expected Loss Reduction framework. It computes the expected increase in scores using the Beta Scoring Rules, which are then transformed into sample vector representations. These vector representations guide the diverse selection of informative samples, directly linking this process to the model's expected proper score. Comprehensive evaluations across both synthetic and real datasets reveal our method's capability to often outperform established acquisition techniques in multi-label text classification, presenting encouraging outcomes across various architectural and dataset scenarios.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

To assist human review process, we build a novel ReviewRobot to automatically assign a review score and write comments for multiple categories such as novelty and meaningful comparison. A good review needs to be knowledgeable, namely that the comments should be constructive and informative to help improve the paper; and explainable by providing detailed evidence. ReviewRobot achieves these goals via three steps: (1) We perform domain-specific Information Extraction to construct a knowledge graph (KG) from the target paper under review, a related work KG from the papers cited by the target paper, and a background KG from a large collection of previous papers in the domain. (2) By comparing these three KGs, we predict a review score and detailed structured knowledge as evidence for each review category. (3) We carefully select and generalize human review sentences into templates, and apply these templates to transform the review scores and evidence into natural language comments. Experimental results show that our review score predictor reaches 71.4%-100% accuracy. Human assessment by domain experts shows that 41.7%-70.5% of the comments generated by ReviewRobot are valid and constructive, and better than human-written ones for 20% of the time. Thus, ReviewRobot can serve as an assistant for paper reviewers, program chairs and authors.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Modern ML systems ingest data aggregated from diverse sources, such as synthetic, human-annotated, and live customer traffic. Understanding which examples are important to the performance of a learning algorithm is crucial for efficient model training. Recently, a growing body of literature has given rise to various "influence scores," which use training artifacts such as model confidence or checkpointed gradients to identify important subsets of data. However, these methods have primarily been developed in computer vision settings, and it remains unclear how well they generalize to language-based tasks using pretrained models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of influence scores in language classification tasks. We evaluate a diverse subset of these scores on the SNLI dataset by quantifying accuracy changes in response to pruning training data through random and influence-score-based sampling. We then stress-test one of the scores -- "variance of gradients" (VoG) from Agarwal et al. (2022) -- in an NLU model stack that was exposed to dynamic user speech patterns in a voice assistant type of setting. Our experiments demonstrate that in many cases, encoder-based language models can be finetuned on roughly 50% of the original data without degradation in performance metrics. Along the way, we summarize lessons learned from applying out-of-the-box implementations of influence scores, quantify the effects of noisy and class-imbalanced data, and offer recommendations on score-based sampling for better accuracy and training efficiency.

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

We propose a deep-learning system -- for the SQuAD2.0 task -- that finds, or indicates the lack of, a correct answer to a question in a context paragraph. Our goal is to learn an ensemble of heterogeneous SQuAD2.0 models that, when blended properly, outperforms the best model in the ensemble per se. We created a stacking ensemble that combines top-N predictions from two models, based on ALBERT and RoBERTa, into a multiclass classification task to pick the best answer out of their predictions. We explored various ensemble configurations, input representations, and model architectures. For evaluation, we examined test-set EM and F1 scores; our best-performing ensemble incorporated a CNN-based meta-model and scored 87.117 and 90.306, respectively -- a relative improvement of 0.55% for EM and 0.61% for F1 scores, compared to the baseline performance of the best model in the ensemble, an ALBERT-based model, at 86.644 for EM and 89.760 for F1.

Curriculum Learning is the presentation of samples to the machine learning model in a meaningful order instead of a random order. The main challenge of Curriculum Learning is determining how to rank these samples. The ranking of the samples is expressed by the scoring function. In this study, scoring functions were compared using data set features, using the model to be trained, and using another model and their ensemble versions. Experiments were performed for 4 images and 4 text datasets. No significant differences were found between scoring functions for text datasets, but significant improvements were obtained in scoring functions created using transfer learning compared to classical model training and other scoring functions for image datasets. It shows that different new scoring functions are waiting to be found for text classification tasks.

We present the contribution of the Unbabel team to the WMT 2020 Shared Task on Metrics. We intend to participate on the segment-level, document-level and system-level tracks on all language pairs, as well as the 'QE as a Metric' track. Accordingly, we illustrate results of our models in these tracks with reference to test sets from the previous year. Our submissions build upon the recently proposed COMET framework: We train several estimator models to regress on different human-generated quality scores and a novel ranking model trained on relative ranks obtained from Direct Assessments. We also propose a simple technique for converting segment-level predictions into a document-level score. Overall, our systems achieve strong results for all language pairs on previous test sets and in many cases set a new state-of-the-art.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Failure of machine learning models to generalize to new data is a core problem limiting the reliability of AI systems, partly due to the lack of simple and robust methods for comparing new data to the original training dataset. We propose a standardized approach for assessing data similarity in a model-agnostic manner by constructing a supervised autoencoder for generalizability estimation (SAGE). We compare points in a low-dimensional embedded latent space, defining empirical probability measures for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) distance, reconstruction of inputs and task-based performance. As proof of concept for classification tasks, we use MNIST and CIFAR-10 to demonstrate how an ensemble output probability score can separate deformed images from a mixture of typical test examples, and how this SAGE score is robust to transformations of increasing severity. As further proof of concept, we extend this approach to a regression task using non-imaging data (UCI Abalone). In all cases, we show that out-of-the-box model performance increases after SAGE score filtering, even when applied to data from the model's own training and test datasets. Our out-of-distribution scoring method can be introduced during several steps of model construction and assessment, leading to future improvements in responsible deep learning implementation.

Lately, pre-trained language models advanced the field of natural language processing (NLP). The introduction of Bidirectional Encoders for Transformers (BERT) and its optimized version RoBERTa have had significant impact and increased the relevance of pre-trained models. First, research in this field mainly started on English data followed by models trained with multilingual text corpora. However, current research shows that multilingual models are inferior to monolingual models. Currently, no German single language RoBERTa model is yet published, which we introduce in this work (GottBERT). The German portion of the OSCAR data set was used as text corpus. In an evaluation we compare its performance on the two Named Entity Recognition (NER) tasks Conll 2003 and GermEval 2014 as well as on the text classification tasks GermEval 2018 (fine and coarse) and GNAD with existing German single language BERT models and two multilingual ones. GottBERT was pre-trained related to the original RoBERTa model using fairseq. All downstream tasks were trained using hyperparameter presets taken from the benchmark of German BERT. The experiments were setup utilizing FARM. Performance was measured by the F_{1} score. GottBERT was successfully pre-trained on a 256 core TPU pod using the RoBERTa BASE architecture. Even without extensive hyper-parameter optimization, in all NER and one text classification task, GottBERT already outperformed all other tested German and multilingual models. In order to support the German NLP field, we publish GottBERT under the AGPLv3 license.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

Causality detection draws plenty of attention in the field of Natural Language Processing and linguistics research. It has essential applications in information retrieval, event prediction, question answering, financial analysis, and market research. In this study, we explore several methods to identify and extract cause-effect pairs in financial documents using transformers. For this purpose, we propose an approach that combines POS tagging with the BIO scheme, which can be integrated with modern transformer models to address this challenge of identifying causality in a given text. Our best methodology achieves an F1-Score of 0.9551, and an Exact Match Score of 0.8777 on the blind test in the FinCausal-2021 Shared Task at the FinCausal 2021 Workshop.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

We present a benchmark for large language models designed to tackle one of the most knowledge-intensive tasks in data science: writing feature engineering code, which requires domain knowledge in addition to a deep understanding of the underlying problem and data structure. The model is provided with a dataset description in a prompt and asked to generate code transforming it. The evaluation score is derived from the improvement achieved by an XGBoost model fit on the modified dataset compared to the original data. By an extensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models and comparison to well-established benchmarks, we demonstrate that the FeatEng of our proposal can cheaply and efficiently assess the broad capabilities of LLMs, in contrast to the existing methods.

This study evaluates the performance of OpenAI's o1-preview model in higher-order cognitive domains, including critical thinking, systematic thinking, computational thinking, data literacy, creative thinking, logical reasoning, and scientific reasoning. Using established benchmarks, we compared the o1-preview models's performance to human participants from diverse educational levels. o1-preview achieved a mean score of 24.33 on the Ennis-Weir Critical Thinking Essay Test (EWCTET), surpassing undergraduate (13.8) and postgraduate (18.39) participants (z = 1.60 and 0.90, respectively). In systematic thinking, it scored 46.1, SD = 4.12 on the Lake Urmia Vignette, significantly outperforming the human mean (20.08, SD = 8.13, z = 3.20). For data literacy, o1-preview scored 8.60, SD = 0.70 on Merk et al.'s "Use Data" dimension, compared to the human post-test mean of 4.17, SD = 2.02 (z = 2.19). On creative thinking tasks, the model achieved originality scores of 2.98, SD = 0.73, higher than the human mean of 1.74 (z = 0.71). In logical reasoning (LogiQA), it outperformed humans with average 90%, SD = 10% accuracy versus 86%, SD = 6.5% (z = 0.62). For scientific reasoning, it achieved near-perfect performance (mean = 0.99, SD = 0.12) on the TOSLS,, exceeding the highest human scores of 0.85, SD = 0.13 (z = 1.78). While o1-preview excelled in structured tasks, it showed limitations in problem-solving and adaptive reasoning. These results demonstrate the potential of AI to complement education in structured assessments but highlight the need for ethical oversight and refinement for broader applications.

In this paper, we introduce the Chinese AI and Law challenge dataset (CAIL2018), the first large-scale Chinese legal dataset for judgment prediction. \dataset contains more than 2.6 million criminal cases published by the Supreme People's Court of China, which are several times larger than other datasets in existing works on judgment prediction. Moreover, the annotations of judgment results are more detailed and rich. It consists of applicable law articles, charges, and prison terms, which are expected to be inferred according to the fact descriptions of cases. For comparison, we implement several conventional text classification baselines for judgment prediction and experimental results show that it is still a challenge for current models to predict the judgment results of legal cases, especially on prison terms. To help the researchers make improvements on legal judgment prediction, both \dataset and baselines will be released after the CAIL competitionhttp://cail.cipsc.org.cn/.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Automated scoring engines are increasingly being used to score the free-form text responses that students give to questions. Such engines are not designed to appropriately deal with responses that a human reader would find alarming such as those that indicate an intention to self-harm or harm others, responses that allude to drug abuse or sexual abuse or any response that would elicit concern for the student writing the response. Our neural network models have been designed to help identify these anomalous responses from a large collection of typical responses that students give. The responses identified by the neural network can be assessed for urgency, severity, and validity more quickly by a team of reviewers than otherwise possible. Given the anomalous nature of these types of responses, our goal is to maximize the chance of flagging these responses for review given the constraint that only a fixed percentage of responses can viably be assessed by a team of reviewers.

In this paper, we describe our participation in the subtask 1 of CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. We address the Causal Relation Identification (CRI) task by exploiting a set of simple yet complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models (LMs) on a small number of annotated examples (i.e., a few-shot configuration). We follow a prompt-based prediction approach for fine-tuning LMs in which the CRI task is treated as a masked language modeling problem (MLM). This approach allows LMs natively pre-trained on MLM problems to directly generate textual responses to CRI-specific prompts. We compare the performance of this method against ensemble techniques trained on the entire dataset. Our best-performing submission was fine-tuned with only 256 instances per class, 15.7% of the all available data, and yet obtained the second-best precision (0.82), third-best accuracy (0.82), and an F1-score (0.85) very close to what was reported by the winner team (0.86).

In this work, we try to decipher the internal connection of NLP technology development in the past decades, searching for essence, which rewards us with a (potential) new learning paradigm for NLP tasks, dubbed as reStructured Pre-training (RST). In such a paradigm, the role of data will be re-emphasized, and model pre-training and fine-tuning of downstream tasks are viewed as a process of data storing and accessing. Based on that, we operationalize the simple principle that a good storage mechanism should not only have the ability to cache a large amount of data but also consider the ease of access. We achieve this by pre-training models over restructured data that consist of a variety of valuable information instead of raw data after overcoming several engineering challenges. Experimentally, RST models not only surpass strong competitors (e.g., T0) on 52/55 popular datasets from a variety of NLP tasks, but also achieve superior performance in National College Entrance Examination - English (Gaokao-English),the most authoritative examination in China. Specifically, the proposed system Qin achieves 40 points higher than the average scores made by students and 15 points higher than GPT3 with 1/16 parameters. In particular, Qin gets a high score of 138.5 (the full mark is 150) in the 2018 English exam (national paper III). We have released the Gaokao Benchmark with an online submission platform. In addition, we test our model in the 2022 College Entrance Examination English that happened a few days ago (2022.06.08), and it gets a total score of 134 (v.s. GPT3's 108).

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

This paper uses the BERT model, which is a transformer-based architecture, to solve task 4A, English Language, Sentiment Analysis in Twitter of SemEval2017. BERT is a very powerful large language model for classification tasks when the amount of training data is small. For this experiment, we have used the BERT(BASE) model, which has 12 hidden layers. This model provides better accuracy, precision, recall, and f1 score than the Naive Bayes baseline model. It performs better in binary classification subtasks than the multi-class classification subtasks. We also considered all kinds of ethical issues during this experiment, as Twitter data contains personal and sensible information. The dataset and code used in our experiment can be found in this GitHub repository.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

This paper presents an improved LLM based model for Grammatical Error Detection (GED), which is a very challenging and equally important problem for many applications. The traditional approach to GED involved hand-designed features, but recently, Neural Networks (NN) have automated the discovery of these features, improving performance in GED. Traditional rule-based systems have an F1 score of 0.50-0.60 and earlier machine learning models give an F1 score of 0.65-0.75, including decision trees and simple neural networks. Previous deep learning models, for example, Bi-LSTM, have reported F1 scores within the range from 0.80 to 0.90. In our study, we have fine-tuned various transformer models using the Lang8 dataset rigorously cleaned by us. In our experiments, the BERT-base-uncased model gave an impressive performance with an F1 score of 0.91 and accuracy of 98.49% on training data and 90.53% on testing data, also showcasing the importance of data cleaning. Increasing model size using BERT-large-uncased or RoBERTa-large did not give any noticeable improvements in performance or advantage for this task, underscoring that larger models are not always better. Our results clearly show how far rigorous data cleaning and simple transformer-based models can go toward significantly improving the quality of GED.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Currently, text-to-image synthesis uses text encoder and image generator architecture. Research on this topic is challenging. This is because of the domain gap between natural language and vision. Nowadays, most research on this topic only focuses on producing a photo-realistic image, but the other domain, in this case, is the language, which is less concentrated. A lot of the current research uses English as the input text. Besides, there are many languages around the world. Bahasa Indonesia, as the official language of Indonesia, is quite popular. This language has been taught in Philipines, Australia, and Japan. Translating or recreating a new dataset into another language with good quality will cost a lot. Research on this domain is necessary because we need to examine how the image generator performs in other languages besides generating photo-realistic images. To achieve this, we translate the CUB dataset into Bahasa using google translate and manually by humans. We use Sentence BERT as the text encoder and FastGAN as the image generator. FastGAN uses lots of skip excitation modules and auto-encoder to generate an image with resolution 512x512x3, which is twice as bigger as the current state-of-the-art model (Zhang, Xu, Li, Zhang, Wang, Huang and Metaxas, 2019). We also get 4.76 +- 0.43 and 46.401 on Inception Score and Fr\'echet inception distance, respectively, and comparable with the current English text-to-image generation models. The mean opinion score also gives as 3.22 out of 5, which means the generated image is acceptable by humans. Link to source code: https://github.com/share424/Indonesian-Text-to-Image-synthesis-with-Sentence-BERT-and-FastGAN

This paper shows that two commonly used evaluation metrics for generative models, the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) and the Inception Score (IS), are biased -- the expected value of the score computed for a finite sample set is not the true value of the score. Worse, the paper shows that the bias term depends on the particular model being evaluated, so model A may get a better score than model B simply because model A's bias term is smaller. This effect cannot be fixed by evaluating at a fixed number of samples. This means all comparisons using FID or IS as currently computed are unreliable. We then show how to extrapolate the score to obtain an effectively bias-free estimate of scores computed with an infinite number of samples, which we term textrm{FID}_infty and textrm{IS}_infty. In turn, this effectively bias-free estimate requires good estimates of scores with a finite number of samples. We show that using Quasi-Monte Carlo integration notably improves estimates of FID and IS for finite sample sets. Our extrapolated scores are simple, drop-in replacements for the finite sample scores. Additionally, we show that using low discrepancy sequence in GAN training offers small improvements in the resulting generator.

Previous work in Indonesian part-of-speech (POS) tagging are hard to compare as they are not evaluated on a common dataset. Furthermore, in spite of the success of neural network models for English POS tagging, they are rarely explored for Indonesian. In this paper, we explored various techniques for Indonesian POS tagging, including rule-based, CRF, and neural network-based models. We evaluated our models on the IDN Tagged Corpus. A new state-of-the-art of 97.47 F1 score is achieved with a recurrent neural network. To provide a standard for future work, we release the dataset split that we used publicly.

Existing text scoring methods require a large corpus, struggle with short texts, or require hand-labeled data. We develop a text scoring framework that leverages generative large language models (LLMs) to (1) set texts against the backdrop of information from the near-totality of the web and digitized media, and (2) effectively transform pairwise text comparisons from a reasoning problem to a pattern recognition task. Our approach, concept-guided chain-of-thought (CGCoT), utilizes a chain of researcher-designed prompts with an LLM to generate a concept-specific breakdown for each text, akin to guidance provided to human coders. We then pairwise compare breakdowns using an LLM and aggregate answers into a score using a probability model. We apply this approach to better understand speech reflecting aversion to specific political parties on Twitter, a topic that has commanded increasing interest because of its potential contributions to democratic backsliding. We achieve stronger correlations with human judgments than widely used unsupervised text scoring methods like Wordfish. In a supervised setting, besides a small pilot dataset to develop CGCoT prompts, our measures require no additional hand-labeled data and produce predictions on par with RoBERTa-Large fine-tuned on thousands of hand-labeled tweets. This project showcases the potential of combining human expertise and LLMs for scoring tasks.

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process (LLM-PR). The LLMs' estimates varied widely, ranging from 3% (Reka- Core) to 47.6% (GPT-4o), with a median of 12.5%. These estimates closely align with a recent expert survey that projected a 10% likelihood of AGI by 2027, underscoring the relevance of LLMs in forecasting complex, speculative scenarios. The LLM-PR process demonstrated strong reliability, evidenced by a high Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC = 0.79), reflecting notable consistency in scoring across the models. Among the models, Pplx-70b-online emerged as the top performer, while Gemini-1.5-pro-api ranked the lowest. A cross-comparison with external benchmarks, such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, revealed that LLM rankings remained consistent across different evaluation methods, suggesting that existing benchmarks may not encapsulate some of the skills relevant for AGI prediction. We further explored the use of weighting schemes based on external benchmarks, optimizing the alignment of LLMs' predictions with human expert forecasts. This analysis led to the development of a new, 'AGI benchmark' designed to highlight performance differences in AGI-related tasks. Our findings offer insights into LLMs' capabilities in speculative, interdisciplinary forecasting tasks and emphasize the growing need for innovative evaluation frameworks for assessing AI performance in complex, uncertain real-world scenarios.

In this paper, we describe our approach to utilize pre-trained BERT models with Convolutional Neural Networks for sub-task A of the Multilingual Offensive Language Identification shared task (OffensEval 2020), which is a part of the SemEval 2020. We show that combining CNN with BERT is better than using BERT on its own, and we emphasize the importance of utilizing pre-trained language models for downstream tasks. Our system, ranked 4th with macro averaged F1-Score of 0.897 in Arabic, 4th with score of 0.843 in Greek, and 3rd with score of 0.814 in Turkish. Additionally, we present ArabicBERT, a set of pre-trained transformer language models for Arabic that we share with the community.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Split and rephrase is the task of breaking down a sentence into shorter ones that together convey the same meaning. We extract a rich new dataset for this task by mining Wikipedia's edit history: WikiSplit contains one million naturally occurring sentence rewrites, providing sixty times more distinct split examples and a ninety times larger vocabulary than the WebSplit corpus introduced by Narayan et al. (2017) as a benchmark for this task. Incorporating WikiSplit as training data produces a model with qualitatively better predictions that score 32 BLEU points above the prior best result on the WebSplit benchmark.

Deep-learning based Automatic Essay Scoring (AES) systems are being actively used by states and language testing agencies alike to evaluate millions of candidates for life-changing decisions ranging from college applications to visa approvals. However, little research has been put to understand and interpret the black-box nature of deep-learning based scoring algorithms. Previous studies indicate that scoring models can be easily fooled. In this paper, we explore the reason behind their surprising adversarial brittleness. We utilize recent advances in interpretability to find the extent to which features such as coherence, content, vocabulary, and relevance are important for automated scoring mechanisms. We use this to investigate the oversensitivity i.e., large change in output score with a little change in input essay content) and overstability i.e., little change in output scores with large changes in input essay content) of AES. Our results indicate that autoscoring models, despite getting trained as "end-to-end" models with rich contextual embeddings such as BERT, behave like bag-of-words models. A few words determine the essay score without the requirement of any context making the model largely overstable. This is in stark contrast to recent probing studies on pre-trained representation learning models, which show that rich linguistic features such as parts-of-speech and morphology are encoded by them. Further, we also find that the models have learnt dataset biases, making them oversensitive. To deal with these issues, we propose detection-based protection models that can detect oversensitivity and overstability causing samples with high accuracies. We find that our proposed models are able to detect unusual attribution patterns and flag adversarial samples successfully.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

We present the system description for our submission towards the Key Point Analysis Shared Task at ArgMining 2021. Track 1 of the shared task requires participants to develop methods to predict the match score between each pair of arguments and keypoints, provided they belong to the same topic under the same stance. We leveraged existing state of the art pre-trained language models along with incorporating additional data and features extracted from the inputs (topics, key points, and arguments) to improve performance. We were able to achieve mAP strict and mAP relaxed score of 0.872 and 0.966 respectively in the evaluation phase, securing 5th place on the leaderboard. In the post evaluation phase, we achieved a mAP strict and mAP relaxed score of 0.921 and 0.982 respectively. All the codes to generate reproducible results on our models are available on Github.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

We report the development of GPT-4, a large-scale, multimodal model which can accept image and text inputs and produce text outputs. While less capable than humans in many real-world scenarios, GPT-4 exhibits human-level performance on various professional and academic benchmarks, including passing a simulated bar exam with a score around the top 10% of test takers. GPT-4 is a Transformer-based model pre-trained to predict the next token in a document. The post-training alignment process results in improved performance on measures of factuality and adherence to desired behavior. A core component of this project was developing infrastructure and optimization methods that behave predictably across a wide range of scales. This allowed us to accurately predict some aspects of GPT-4's performance based on models trained with no more than 1/1,000th the compute of GPT-4.

Foundation models rely on large-scale web-crawled datasets, which frequently contain noisy data, biases, and irrelevant content. Existing data selection techniques typically use human heuristics, downstream evaluation datasets, or specialized scoring models, and can overlook samples' utility in the training process. Instead, we propose a new approach, Mimic Score, a data quality metric that uses a pretrained reference model as a guide to assess the usefulness of data samples for training a new model. It relies on the alignment between the gradient of the new model parameters and the vector pointing toward the reference model in weight space. Samples that misalign with this direction are considered low-value and can be filtered out. Motivated by the Mimic score, we develop Grad-Mimic, a data selection framework that identifies and prioritizes useful samples, automating the selection process to create effective filters. Empirically, using Mimic scores to guide model training results in consistent performance gains across six image datasets and enhances the performance of CLIP models. Moreover, Mimic scores and their associated filters improve upon existing filtering methods and offer accurate estimation of dataset quality.

We propose a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy. The test covers 57 tasks including elementary mathematics, US history, computer science, law, and more. To attain high accuracy on this test, models must possess extensive world knowledge and problem solving ability. We find that while most recent models have near random-chance accuracy, the very largest GPT-3 model improves over random chance by almost 20 percentage points on average. However, on every one of the 57 tasks, the best models still need substantial improvements before they can reach expert-level accuracy. Models also have lopsided performance and frequently do not know when they are wrong. Worse, they still have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law. By comprehensively evaluating the breadth and depth of a model's academic and professional understanding, our test can be used to analyze models across many tasks and to identify important shortcomings.

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

We present the first Africentric SemEval Shared task, Sentiment Analysis for African Languages (AfriSenti-SemEval) - The dataset is available at https://github.com/afrisenti-semeval/afrisent-semeval-2023. AfriSenti-SemEval is a sentiment classification challenge in 14 African languages: Amharic, Algerian Arabic, Hausa, Igbo, Kinyarwanda, Moroccan Arabic, Mozambican Portuguese, Nigerian Pidgin, Oromo, Swahili, Tigrinya, Twi, Xitsonga, and Yor\`ub\'a (Muhammad et al., 2023), using data labeled with 3 sentiment classes. We present three subtasks: (1) Task A: monolingual classification, which received 44 submissions; (2) Task B: multilingual classification, which received 32 submissions; and (3) Task C: zero-shot classification, which received 34 submissions. The best performance for tasks A and B was achieved by NLNDE team with 71.31 and 75.06 weighted F1, respectively. UCAS-IIE-NLP achieved the best average score for task C with 58.15 weighted F1. We describe the various approaches adopted by the top 10 systems and their approaches.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

The ability to describe images with natural language sentences is the hallmark for image and language understanding. Such a system has wide ranging applications such as annotating images and using natural sentences to search for images.In this project we focus on the task of bidirectional image retrieval: such asystem is capable of retrieving an image based on a sentence (image search) andretrieve sentence based on an image query (image annotation). We present asystem based on a global ranking objective function which uses a combinationof convolutional neural networks (CNN) and multi layer perceptrons (MLP).It takes a pair of image and sentence and processes them in different channels,finally embedding it into a common multimodal vector space. These embeddingsencode abstract semantic information about the two inputs and can be comparedusing traditional information retrieval approaches. For each such pair, the modelreturns a score which is interpretted as a similarity metric. If this score is high,the image and sentence are likely to convey similar meaning, and if the score is low then they are likely not to. The visual input is modeled via deep convolutional neural network. On theother hand we explore three models for the textual module. The first one isbag of words with an MLP. The second one uses n-grams (bigram, trigrams,and a combination of trigram & skip-grams) with an MLP. The third is morespecialized deep network specific for modeling variable length sequences (SSE).We report comparable performance to recent work in the field, even though ouroverall model is simpler. We also show that the training time choice of how wecan generate our negative samples has a significant impact on performance, and can be used to specialize the bi-directional system in one particular task.

Despite decades of clinical research, sepsis remains a global public health crisis with high mortality, and morbidity. Currently, when sepsis is detected and the underlying pathogen is identified, organ damage may have already progressed to irreversible stages. Effective sepsis management is therefore highly time-sensitive. By systematically analysing trends in the plethora of clinical data available in the intensive care unit (ICU), an early prediction of sepsis could lead to earlier pathogen identification, resistance testing, and effective antibiotic and supportive treatment, and thereby become a life-saving measure. Here, we developed and validated a machine learning (ML) system for the prediction of sepsis in the ICU. Our analysis represents the largest multi-national, multi-centre in-ICU study for sepsis prediction using ML to date. Our dataset contains 156,309 unique ICU admissions, which represent a refined and harmonised subset of five large ICU databases originating from three countries. Using the international consensus definition Sepsis-3, we derived hourly-resolved sepsis label annotations, amounting to 26,734 (17.1%) septic stays. We compared our approach, a deep self-attention model, to several clinical baselines as well as ML baselines and performed an extensive internal and external validation within and across databases. On average, our model was able to predict sepsis with an AUROC of 0.847 pm 0.050 (internal out-of sample validation) and 0.761 pm 0.052 (external validation). For a harmonised prevalence of 17%, at 80% recall our model detects septic patients with 39% precision 3.7 hours in advance.

Analyzing memes on the internet has emerged as a crucial endeavor due to the impact this multi-modal form of content wields in shaping online discourse. Memes have become a powerful tool for expressing emotions and sentiments, possibly even spreading hate and misinformation, through humor and sarcasm. In this paper, we present the overview of the Memotion 3 shared task, as part of the DeFactify 2 workshop at AAAI-23. The task released an annotated dataset of Hindi-English code-mixed memes based on their Sentiment (Task A), Emotion (Task B), and Emotion intensity (Task C). Each of these is defined as an individual task and the participants are ranked separately for each task. Over 50 teams registered for the shared task and 5 made final submissions to the test set of the Memotion 3 dataset. CLIP, BERT modifications, ViT etc. were the most popular models among the participants along with approaches such as Student-Teacher model, Fusion, and Ensembling. The best final F1 score for Task A is 34.41, Task B is 79.77 and Task C is 59.82.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has brought a critical need for high-quality human-labeled data, particularly for processes like human feedback and evaluation. A common practice is to label data via consensus annotation over crowdworker judgments. However, annotators' judgments for subjective tasks can differ in many ways: they may have different qualitative judgments about an example, and they may map those to a labeling scheme in different ways. We show that these nuances can be captured by natural language explanations, and propose a method to rescale ordinal annotations and explanations using LLMs. Specifically, we feed annotators' Likert ratings and corresponding explanations into an LLM and prompt it to produce a numeric score anchored in a scoring rubric. These scores should reflect the annotators' underlying assessments of the example. The rubric can be designed or modified after annotation, and include distinctions that may not have been known when the original error taxonomy was devised. We explore our technique in the context of rating system outputs for a document-grounded question answering task, where LLMs achieve near-human performance. Our method rescales the raw judgments without impacting agreement and brings the scores closer to human judgments grounded in the same scoring rubric.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

We present the Legal Passage Retrieval Dataset LePaRD. LePaRD is a massive collection of U.S. federal judicial citations to precedent in context. The dataset aims to facilitate work on legal passage prediction, a challenging practice-oriented legal retrieval and reasoning task. Legal passage prediction seeks to predict relevant passages from precedential court decisions given the context of a legal argument. We extensively evaluate various retrieval approaches on LePaRD, and find that classification appears to work best. However, we note that legal precedent prediction is a difficult task, and there remains significant room for improvement. We hope that by publishing LePaRD, we will encourage others to engage with a legal NLP task that promises to help expand access to justice by reducing the burden associated with legal research. A subset of the LePaRD dataset is freely available and the whole dataset will be released upon publication.

Due to the exponentially increasing reach of social media, it is essential to focus on its negative aspects as it can potentially divide society and incite people into violence. In this paper, we present our system description of work on the shared task ComMA@ICON, where we have to classify how aggressive the sentence is and if the sentence is gender-biased or communal biased. These three could be the primary reasons to cause significant problems in society. As team Hypers we have proposed an approach that utilizes different pretrained models with Attention and mean pooling methods. We were able to get Rank 3 with 0.223 Instance F1 score on Bengali, Rank 2 with 0.322 Instance F1 score on Multi-lingual set, Rank 4 with 0.129 Instance F1 score on Meitei and Rank 5 with 0.336 Instance F1 score on Hindi. The source code and the pretrained models of this work can be found here.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

This paper presents our participation under the team name `Finance Wizard' in the FinNLP-AgentScen 2024 shared task #2: Financial Text Summarization. It documents our pipeline approach of fine-tuning a foundation model into a task-specific model for Financial Text Summarization. It involves (1) adapting Llama3 8B, a foundation model, to the Finance domain via continued pre-training, (2) multi-task instruction-tuning to further equip the model with more finance-related capabilities, (3) finally fine-tuning the model into a task-specific `expert'. Our model, FinLlama3\_sum, yielded commendable results, securing the third position in its category with a ROUGE-1 score of 0.521.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

Traditional cooking recipes follow a structure which can be modelled very well if the rules and semantics of the different sections of the recipe text are analyzed and represented accurately. We propose a structure that can accurately represent the recipe as well as a pipeline to infer the best representation of the recipe in this uniform structure. The Ingredients section in a recipe typically lists down the ingredients required and corresponding attributes such as quantity, temperature, and processing state. This can be modelled by defining these attributes and their values. The physical entities which make up a recipe can be broadly classified into utensils, ingredients and their combinations that are related by cooking techniques. The instruction section lists down a series of events in which a cooking technique or process is applied upon these utensils and ingredients. We model these relationships in the form of tuples. Thus, using a combination of these methods we model cooking recipe in the dataset RecipeDB to show the efficacy of our method. This mined information model can have several applications which include translating recipes between languages, determining similarity between recipes, generation of novel recipes and estimation of the nutritional profile of recipes. For the purpose of recognition of ingredient attributes, we train the Named Entity Relationship (NER) models and analyze the inferences with the help of K-Means clustering. Our model presented with an F1 score of 0.95 across all datasets. We use a similar NER tagging model for labelling cooking techniques (F1 score = 0.88) and utensils (F1 score = 0.90) within the instructions section. Finally, we determine the temporal sequence of relationships between ingredients, utensils and cooking techniques for modeling the instruction steps.

The pulp and paper manufacturing industry requires precise quality control to ensure pure, contaminant-free end products suitable for various applications. Fungal spore concentration is a crucial metric that affects paper usability, and current testing methods are labor-intensive with delayed results, hindering real-time control strategies. To address this, a machine learning algorithm utilizing time-series data and domain knowledge was proposed. The optimal model employed Ridge Regression achieving an MSE of 2.90 on training and validation data. This approach could lead to significant improvements in efficiency and sustainability by providing real-time predictions for fungal spore concentrations. This paper showcases a promising method for real-time fungal spore concentration prediction, enabling stringent quality control measures in the pulp-and-paper industry.

In precision-oriented tasks like answer ranking, it is more important to rank many relevant answers highly than to retrieve all relevant answers. It follows that a good ranking strategy would be to learn how to identify the easiest correct answers first (i.e., assign a high ranking score to answers that have characteristics that usually indicate relevance, and a low ranking score to those with characteristics that do not), before incorporating more complex logic to handle difficult cases (e.g., semantic matching or reasoning). In this work, we apply this idea to the training of neural answer rankers using curriculum learning. We propose several heuristics to estimate the difficulty of a given training sample. We show that the proposed heuristics can be used to build a training curriculum that down-weights difficult samples early in the training process. As the training process progresses, our approach gradually shifts to weighting all samples equally, regardless of difficulty. We present a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed idea on three answer ranking datasets. Results show that our approach leads to superior performance of two leading neural ranking architectures, namely BERT and ConvKNRM, using both pointwise and pairwise losses. When applied to a BERT-based ranker, our method yields up to a 4% improvement in MRR and a 9% improvement in P@1 (compared to the model trained without a curriculum). This results in models that can achieve comparable performance to more expensive state-of-the-art techniques.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Anomaly detection plays a crucial role in the field of predictive maintenance for wind turbines, yet the comparison of different algorithms poses a difficult task because domain specific public datasets are scarce. Many comparisons of different approaches either use benchmarks composed of data from many different domains, inaccessible data or one of the few publicly available datasets which lack detailed information about the faults. Moreover, many publications highlight a couple of case studies where fault detection was successful. With this paper we publish a high quality dataset that contains data from 36 wind turbines across 3 different wind farms as well as the most detailed fault information of any public wind turbine dataset as far as we know. The new dataset contains 89 years worth of real-world operating data of wind turbines, distributed across 44 labeled time frames for anomalies that led up to faults, as well as 51 time series representing normal behavior. Additionally, the quality of training data is ensured by turbine-status-based labels for each data point. Furthermore, we propose a new scoring method, called CARE (Coverage, Accuracy, Reliability and Earliness), which takes advantage of the information depth that is present in the dataset to identify a good all-around anomaly detection model. This score considers the anomaly detection performance, the ability to recognize normal behavior properly and the capability to raise as few false alarms as possible while simultaneously detecting anomalies early.

Estimating the performance difficulty of a musical score is crucial in music education for adequately designing the learning curriculum of the students. Although the Music Information Retrieval community has recently shown interest in this task, existing approaches mainly use machine-readable scores, leaving the broader case of sheet music images unaddressed. Based on previous works involving sheet music images, we use a mid-level representation, bootleg score, describing notehead positions relative to staff lines coupled with a transformer model. This architecture is adapted to our task by introducing an encoding scheme that reduces the encoded sequence length to one-eighth of the original size. In terms of evaluation, we consider five datasets -- more than 7500 scores with up to 9 difficulty levels -- , two of them particularly compiled for this work. The results obtained when pretraining the scheme on the IMSLP corpus and fine-tuning it on the considered datasets prove the proposal's validity, achieving the best-performing model with a balanced accuracy of 40.34\% and a mean square error of 1.33. Finally, we provide access to our code, data, and models for transparency and reproducibility.

Peer reviewing is a central component in the scientific publishing process. We present the first public dataset of scientific peer reviews available for research purposes (PeerRead v1) providing an opportunity to study this important artifact. The dataset consists of 14.7K paper drafts and the corresponding accept/reject decisions in top-tier venues including ACL, NIPS and ICLR. The dataset also includes 10.7K textual peer reviews written by experts for a subset of the papers. We describe the data collection process and report interesting observed phenomena in the peer reviews. We also propose two novel NLP tasks based on this dataset and provide simple baseline models. In the first task, we show that simple models can predict whether a paper is accepted with up to 21% error reduction compared to the majority baseline. In the second task, we predict the numerical scores of review aspects and show that simple models can outperform the mean baseline for aspects with high variance such as 'originality' and 'impact'.

Single-atom catalysts (SACs) have emerged as frontiers for catalyzing chemical reactions, yet the diverse combinations of active elements and support materials, the nature of coordination environments, elude traditional methodologies in searching optimal SAC systems with superior catalytic performance. Herein, by integrating multi-branch Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) analysis models to hybrid descriptor based activity volcano plot, 2D SAC system composed of diverse metallic single atoms anchored on six type of 2D supports, including graphitic carbon nitride, nitrogen-doped graphene, graphene with dual-vacancy, black phosphorous, boron nitride, and C2N, are screened for efficient CO2RR. Starting from establishing a correlation map between the adsorption energies of intermediates and diverse electronic and elementary descriptors, sole singular descriptor lost magic to predict catalytic activity. Deep learning method utilizing multi-branch CNN model therefore was employed, using 2D electronic density of states as input to predict adsorption energies. Hybrid-descriptor enveloping both C- and O-types of CO2RR intermediates was introduced to construct volcano plots and limiting potential periodic table, aiming for intuitive screening of catalyst candidates for efficient CO2 reduction to CH4. The eDOS occlusion experiments were performed to unravel individual orbital contribution to adsorption energy. To explore the electronic scale principle governing practical engineering catalytic CO2RR activity, orbitalwise eDOS shifting experiments based on CNN model were employed. The study involves examining the adsorption energy and, consequently, catalytic activities while varying supported single atoms. This work offers a tangible framework to inform both theoretical screening and experimental synthesis, thereby paving the way for systematically designing efficient SACs.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark and is statistically equivalent to the human crowd. We also observe an acquiescence effect, with mean model predictions being significantly above 50%, despite an almost even split of positive and negative resolutions. Moreover, in Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%: though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of human crowd forecasting tournaments: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation. This replicates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect for LLMs, and opens up their use for a variety applications throughout society.

The ability to collect a large dataset of human preferences from text-to-image users is usually limited to companies, making such datasets inaccessible to the public. To address this issue, we create a web app that enables text-to-image users to generate images and specify their preferences. Using this web app we build Pick-a-Pic, a large, open dataset of text-to-image prompts and real users' preferences over generated images. We leverage this dataset to train a CLIP-based scoring function, PickScore, which exhibits superhuman performance on the task of predicting human preferences. Then, we test PickScore's ability to perform model evaluation and observe that it correlates better with human rankings than other automatic evaluation metrics. Therefore, we recommend using PickScore for evaluating future text-to-image generation models, and using Pick-a-Pic prompts as a more relevant dataset than MS-COCO. Finally, we demonstrate how PickScore can enhance existing text-to-image models via ranking.

The rapid expansion of mobile internet has resulted in a substantial increase in user-generated content (UGC) images, thereby making the thorough assessment of UGC images both urgent and essential. Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in image quality assessment (IQA) and image aesthetic assessment (IAA). Despite this progress, effectively scoring the quality and aesthetics of UGC images still faces two main challenges: 1) A single score is inadequate to capture the hierarchical human perception. 2) How to use MLLMs to output numerical scores, such as mean opinion scores (MOS), remains an open question. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel dataset, named Realistic image Quality and Aesthetic (RealQA), including 14,715 UGC images, each of which is annoted with 10 fine-grained attributes. These attributes span three levels: low level (e.g., image clarity), middle level (e.g., subject integrity) and high level (e.g., composition). Besides, we conduct a series of in-depth and comprehensive investigations into how to effectively predict numerical scores using MLLMs. Surprisingly, by predicting just two extra significant digits, the next token paradigm can achieve SOTA performance. Furthermore, with the help of chain of thought (CoT) combined with the learnt fine-grained attributes, the proposed method can outperform SOTA methods on five public datasets for IQA and IAA with superior interpretability and show strong zero-shot generalization for video quality assessment (VQA). The code and dataset will be released.

Recent advances in language representation using neural networks have made it viable to transfer the learned internal states of a trained model to downstream natural language processing tasks, such as named entity recognition (NER) and question answering. It has been shown that the leverage of pre-trained language models improves the overall performance on many tasks and is highly beneficial when labeled data is scarce. In this work, we train Portuguese BERT models and employ a BERT-CRF architecture to the NER task on the Portuguese language, combining the transfer capabilities of BERT with the structured predictions of CRF. We explore feature-based and fine-tuning training strategies for the BERT model. Our fine-tuning approach obtains new state-of-the-art results on the HAREM I dataset, improving the F1-score by 1 point on the selective scenario (5 NE classes) and by 4 points on the total scenario (10 NE classes).

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

We present the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD), a new reading comprehension dataset consisting of 100,000+ questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to each question is a segment of text from the corresponding reading passage. We analyze the dataset to understand the types of reasoning required to answer the questions, leaning heavily on dependency and constituency trees. We build a strong logistic regression model, which achieves an F1 score of 51.0%, a significant improvement over a simple baseline (20%). However, human performance (86.8%) is much higher, indicating that the dataset presents a good challenge problem for future research. The dataset is freely available at https://stanford-qa.com

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generalizing to new tasks in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. However, the extent to which LLMs can comprehend user preferences based on their previous behavior remains an emerging and still unclear research question. Traditionally, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been the most effective method for these tasks, predominantly relying on the extensive volume of rating data. In contrast, LLMs typically demand considerably less data while maintaining an exhaustive world knowledge about each item, such as movies or products. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of both CF and LLMs within the classic task of user rating prediction, which involves predicting a user's rating for a candidate item based on their past ratings. We investigate various LLMs in different sizes, ranging from 250M to 540B parameters and evaluate their performance in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios. We conduct comprehensive analysis to compare between LLMs and strong CF methods, and find that zero-shot LLMs lag behind traditional recommender models that have the access to user interaction data, indicating the importance of user interaction data. However, through fine-tuning, LLMs achieve comparable or even better performance with only a small fraction of the training data, demonstrating their potential through data efficiency.

Automated Essay Score (AES) is proven to be one of the cutting-edge technologies. Scoring techniques are used for various purposes. Reliable scores are calculated based on influential variables. Such variables can be computed by different methods based on the domain. The research is concentrated on the user's understanding of a given topic. The analysis is based on a scoring index by using Large Language Models. The user can then compare and contrast the understanding of a topic that they recently learned. The results are then contributed towards learning analytics and progression is made for enhancing the learning ability. In this research, the focus is on summarizing a PDF document and gauging a user's understanding of its content. The process involves utilizing a Langchain tool to summarize the PDF and extract the essential information. By employing this technique, the research aims to determine how well the user comprehends the summarized content.

Identifying significant references within the complex interrelations of a citation knowledge graph is challenging, which encompasses connections through citations, authorship, keywords, and other relational attributes. The Paper Source Tracing (PST) task seeks to automate the identification of pivotal references for given scholarly articles utilizing advanced data mining techniques. In the KDD CUP 2024, we design a recommendation-based framework tailored for the PST task. This framework employs the Neural Collaborative Filtering (NCF) model to generate final predictions. To process the textual attributes of the papers and extract input features for the model, we utilize SciBERT, a pre-trained language model. According to the experimental results, our method achieved a score of 0.37814 on the Mean Average Precision (MAP) metric, outperforming baseline models and ranking 11th among all participating teams. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/MyLove-XAB/KDDCupFinal.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Employing a machine learning approach we predict, up to 24 hours prior, a diagnosis of severe sepsis. Strongly predictive models are possible that use only text reports from the Electronic Health Record (EHR), and omit structured numerical data. Unstructured text alone gives slightly better performance than structured data alone, and the combination further improves performance. We also discuss advantages of using unstructured EHR text for modeling, as compared to structured EHR data.

Current pre-trained language models rely on large datasets for achieving state-of-the-art performance. However, past research has shown that not all examples in a dataset are equally important during training. In fact, it is sometimes possible to prune a considerable fraction of the training set while maintaining the test performance. Established on standard vision benchmarks, two gradient-based scoring metrics for finding important examples are GraNd and its estimated version, EL2N. In this work, we employ these two metrics for the first time in NLP. We demonstrate that these metrics need to be computed after at least one epoch of fine-tuning and they are not reliable in early steps. Furthermore, we show that by pruning a small portion of the examples with the highest GraNd/EL2N scores, we can not only preserve the test accuracy, but also surpass it. This paper details adjustments and implementation choices which enable GraNd and EL2N to be applied to NLP.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

In this work, we propose to study the performance of a model trained with a sentence embedding regression loss component for the Automated Audio Captioning task. This task aims to build systems that can describe audio content with a single sentence written in natural language. Most systems are trained with the standard Cross-Entropy loss, which does not take into account the semantic closeness of the sentence. We found that adding a sentence embedding loss term reduces overfitting, but also increased SPIDEr from 0.397 to 0.418 in our first setting on the AudioCaps corpus. When we increased the weight decay value, we found our model to be much closer to the current state-of-the-art methods, with a SPIDEr score up to 0.444 compared to a 0.475 score. Moreover, this model uses eight times less trainable parameters. In this training setting, the sentence embedding loss has no more impact on the model performance.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

Objective: We investigate whether deep learning techniques for natural language processing (NLP) can be used efficiently for patient phenotyping. Patient phenotyping is a classification task for determining whether a patient has a medical condition, and is a crucial part of secondary analysis of healthcare data. We assess the performance of deep learning algorithms and compare them with classical NLP approaches. Materials and Methods: We compare convolutional neural networks (CNNs), n-gram models, and approaches based on cTAKES that extract pre-defined medical concepts from clinical notes and use them to predict patient phenotypes. The performance is tested on 10 different phenotyping tasks using 1,610 discharge summaries extracted from the MIMIC-III database. Results: CNNs outperform other phenotyping algorithms in all 10 tasks. The average F1-score of our model is 76 (PPV of 83, and sensitivity of 71) with our model having an F1-score up to 37 points higher than alternative approaches. We additionally assess the interpretability of our model by presenting a method that extracts the most salient phrases for a particular prediction. Conclusion: We show that NLP methods based on deep learning improve the performance of patient phenotyping. Our CNN-based algorithm automatically learns the phrases associated with each patient phenotype. As such, it reduces the annotation complexity for clinical domain experts, who are normally required to develop task-specific annotation rules and identify relevant phrases. Our method performs well in terms of both performance and interpretability, which indicates that deep learning is an effective approach to patient phenotyping based on clinicians' notes.

In this paper we describe the methods we used for our submissions to the GermEval 2021 shared task on the identification of toxic, engaging, and fact-claiming comments. For all three subtasks we fine-tuned freely available transformer-based models from the Huggingface model hub. We evaluated the performance of various pre-trained models after fine-tuning on 80% of the training data with different hyperparameters and submitted predictions of the two best performing resulting models. We found that this approach worked best for subtask 3, for which we achieved an F1-score of 0.736.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

Large language models (LLMs) that produce human-like responses have begun to revolutionize research practices in the social sciences. We develop a novel methodological framework that fine-tunes LLMs with repeated cross-sectional surveys to incorporate the meaning of survey questions, individual beliefs, and temporal contexts for opinion prediction. We introduce two new emerging applications of the AI-augmented survey: retrodiction (i.e., predict year-level missing responses) and unasked opinion prediction (i.e., predict entirely missing responses). Among 3,110 binarized opinions from 68,846 Americans in the General Social Survey from 1972 to 2021, our models based on Alpaca-7b excel in retrodiction (AUC = 0.86 for personal opinion prediction, rho = 0.98 for public opinion prediction). These remarkable prediction capabilities allow us to fill in missing trends with high confidence and pinpoint when public attitudes changed, such as the rising support for same-sex marriage. On the other hand, our fine-tuned Alpaca-7b models show modest success in unasked opinion prediction (AUC = 0.73, rho = 0.67). We discuss practical constraints and ethical concerns regarding individual autonomy and privacy when using LLMs for opinion prediction. Our study demonstrates that LLMs and surveys can mutually enhance each other's capabilities: LLMs can broaden survey potential, while surveys can improve the alignment of LLMs.

This article motivates, describes, and presents the PBSCSR dataset for studying composer style recognition of piano sheet music. Our overarching goal was to create a dataset for studying composer style recognition that is "as accessible as MNIST and as challenging as ImageNet." To achieve this goal, we sample fixed-length bootleg score fragments from piano sheet music images on IMSLP. The dataset itself contains 40,000 62x64 bootleg score images for a 9-way classification task, 100,000 62x64 bootleg score images for a 100-way classification task, and 29,310 unlabeled variable-length bootleg score images for pretraining. The labeled data is presented in a form that mirrors MNIST images, in order to make it extremely easy to visualize, manipulate, and train models in an efficient manner. Additionally, we include relevant metadata to allow access to the underlying raw sheet music images and other related data on IMSLP. We describe several research tasks that could be studied with the dataset, including variations of composer style recognition in a few-shot or zero-shot setting. For tasks that have previously proposed models, we release code and baseline results for future works to compare against. We also discuss open research questions that the PBSCSR data is especially well suited to facilitate research on and areas of fruitful exploration in future work.

This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).

Contrastively trained text-image models have the remarkable ability to perform zero-shot classification, that is, classifying previously unseen images into categories that the model has never been explicitly trained to identify. However, these zero-shot classifiers need prompt engineering to achieve high accuracy. Prompt engineering typically requires hand-crafting a set of prompts for individual downstream tasks. In this work, we aim to automate this prompt engineering and improve zero-shot accuracy through prompt ensembling. In particular, we ask "Given a large pool of prompts, can we automatically score the prompts and ensemble those that are most suitable for a particular downstream dataset, without needing access to labeled validation data?". We demonstrate that this is possible. In doing so, we identify several pathologies in a naive prompt scoring method where the score can be easily overconfident due to biases in pre-training and test data, and we propose a novel prompt scoring method that corrects for the biases. Using our proposed scoring method to create a weighted average prompt ensemble, our method outperforms equal average ensemble, as well as hand-crafted prompts, on ImageNet, 4 of its variants, and 11 fine-grained classification benchmarks, all while being fully automatic, optimization-free, and not requiring access to labeled validation data.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

We describe our development of CSS10, a collection of single speaker speech datasets for ten languages. It is composed of short audio clips from LibriVox audiobooks and their aligned texts. To validate its quality we train two neural text-to-speech models on each dataset. Subsequently, we conduct Mean Opinion Score tests on the synthesized speech samples. We make our datasets, pre-trained models, and test resources publicly available. We hope they will be used for future speech tasks.

In many Vietnamese schools, grades are still being inputted into the database manually, which is not only inefficient but also prone to human error. Thus, the automation of this process is highly necessary, which can only be achieved if we can extract information from academic transcripts. In this paper, we test our improved CRNN model in extracting information from 126 transcripts, with 1008 vertical lines, 3859 horizontal lines, and 2139 handwritten test scores. Then, this model is compared to the Baseline model. The results show that our model significantly outperforms the Baseline model with an accuracy of 99.6% in recognizing vertical lines, 100% in recognizing horizontal lines, and 96.11% in recognizing handwritten test scores.

Biomedical research is growing at such an exponential pace that scientists, researchers, and practitioners are no more able to cope with the amount of published literature in the domain. The knowledge presented in the literature needs to be systematized in such a way that claims and hypotheses can be easily found, accessed, and validated. Knowledge graphs can provide such a framework for semantic knowledge representation from literature. However, in order to build a knowledge graph, it is necessary to extract knowledge as relationships between biomedical entities and normalize both entities and relationship types. In this paper, we present and compare few rule-based and machine learning-based (Naive Bayes, Random Forests as examples of traditional machine learning methods and DistilBERT, PubMedBERT, T5 and SciFive-based models as examples of modern deep learning transformers) methods for scalable relationship extraction from biomedical literature, and for the integration into the knowledge graphs. We examine how resilient are these various methods to unbalanced and fairly small datasets. Our experiments show that transformer-based models handle well both small (due to pre-training on a large dataset) and unbalanced datasets. The best performing model was the PubMedBERT-based model fine-tuned on balanced data, with a reported F1-score of 0.92. DistilBERT-based model followed with F1-score of 0.89, performing faster and with lower resource requirements. BERT-based models performed better then T5-based generative models.

Many NLP tasks require to automatically identify the most significant words in a text. In this work, we derive word significance from models trained to solve semantic task: Natural Language Inference and Paraphrase Identification. Using an attribution method aimed to explain the predictions of these models, we derive importance scores for each input token. We evaluate their relevance using a so-called cross-task evaluation: Analyzing the performance of one model on an input masked according to the other model's weight, we show that our method is robust with respect to the choice of the initial task. Additionally, we investigate the scores from the syntax point of view and observe interesting patterns, e.g. words closer to the root of a syntactic tree receive higher importance scores. Altogether, these observations suggest that our method can be used to identify important words in sentences without any explicit word importance labeling in training.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Recent advances in the field of language modeling have improved state-of-the-art results on many Natural Language Processing tasks. Among them, Reading Comprehension has made significant progress over the past few years. However, most results are reported in English since labeled resources available in other languages, such as French, remain scarce. In the present work, we introduce the French Question Answering Dataset (FQuAD). FQuAD is a French Native Reading Comprehension dataset of questions and answers on a set of Wikipedia articles that consists of 25,000+ samples for the 1.0 version and 60,000+ samples for the 1.1 version. We train a baseline model which achieves an F1 score of 92.2 and an exact match ratio of 82.1 on the test set. In order to track the progress of French Question Answering models we propose a leader-board and we have made the 1.0 version of our dataset freely available at https://illuin-tech.github.io/FQuAD-explorer/.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

Recommendation is the task of ranking items (e.g. movies or products) according to individual user needs. Current systems rely on collaborative filtering and content-based techniques, which both require structured training data. We propose a framework for recommendation with off-the-shelf pretrained language models (LM) that only used unstructured text corpora as training data. If a user u liked Matrix and Inception, we construct a textual prompt, e.g. "Movies like Matrix, Inception, {<m{>}"} to estimate the affinity between u and m with LM likelihood. We motivate our idea with a corpus analysis, evaluate several prompt structures, and we compare LM-based recommendation with standard matrix factorization trained on different data regimes. The code for our experiments is publicly available (https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1f1mlZ-FGaLGdo5rPzxf3vemKllbh2esT?usp=sharing).

We present the joint contribution of Unbabel and Instituto Superior T\'ecnico to the WMT 2023 Shared Task on Quality Estimation (QE). Our team participated on all tasks: sentence- and word-level quality prediction (task 1) and fine-grained error span detection (task 2). For all tasks, we build on the COMETKIWI-22 model (Rei et al., 2022b). Our multilingual approaches are ranked first for all tasks, reaching state-of-the-art performance for quality estimation at word-, span- and sentence-level granularity. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art COMETKIWI-22, we show large improvements in correlation with human judgements (up to 10 Spearman points). Moreover, we surpass the second-best multilingual submission to the shared-task with up to 3.8 absolute points.

In this paper, we explore the idea of analysing the historical bias of contextual language models based on BERT by measuring their adequacy with respect to Early Modern (EME) and Modern (ME) English. In our preliminary experiments, we perform fill-in-the-blank tests with 60 masked sentences (20 EME-specific, 20 ME-specific and 20 generic) and three different models (i.e., BERT Base, MacBERTh, English HLM). We then rate the model predictions according to a 5-point bipolar scale between the two language varieties and derive a weighted score to measure the adequacy of each model to EME and ME varieties of English.

Recent advances in large language models have led to renewed interest in natural language processing in healthcare using the free text of clinical notes. One distinguishing characteristic of clinical notes is their long time span over multiple long documents. The unique structure of clinical notes creates a new design choice: when the context length for a language model predictor is limited, which part of clinical notes should we choose as the input? Existing studies either choose the inputs with domain knowledge or simply truncate them. We propose a framework to analyze the sections with high predictive power. Using MIMIC-III, we show that: 1) predictive power distribution is different between nursing notes and discharge notes and 2) combining different types of notes could improve performance when the context length is large. Our findings suggest that a carefully selected sampling function could enable more efficient information extraction from clinical notes.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

Recent progress in Graph Neural Networks has resulted in wide adoption by many applications, including recommendation systems. The reason for Graph Neural Networks' superiority over other approaches is that many problems in recommendation systems can be naturally modeled as graphs, where nodes can be either users or items and edges represent preference relationships. In current Graph Neural Network approaches, nodes are represented with a static vector learned at training time. This static vector might only be suitable to capture some of the nuances of users or items they define. To overcome this limitation, we propose using a recently proposed model inspired by category theory: Sheaf Neural Networks. Sheaf Neural Networks, and its connected Laplacian, can address the previous problem by associating every node (and edge) with a vector space instead than a single vector. The vector space representation is richer and allows picking the proper representation at inference time. This approach can be generalized for different related tasks on graphs and achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of F1-Score@N in collaborative filtering and Hits@20 in link prediction. For collaborative filtering, the approach is evaluated on the MovieLens 100K with a 5.1% improvement, on MovieLens 1M with a 5.4% improvement and on Book-Crossing with a 2.8% improvement, while for link prediction on the ogbl-ddi dataset with a 1.6% refinement with respect to the respective baselines.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

In recent years, there is strong emphasis on mining medical data using machine learning techniques. A common problem is to obtain a noiseless set of textual documents, with a relevant content for the research question, and developing a Question Answering (QA) model for a specific medical field. The purpose of this paper is to present a new methodology for building a medical dataset and obtain a QA model for analysis of symptoms and impact on daily life for a specific disease domain. The ``Mental Health'' forum was used, a forum dedicated to people suffering from schizophrenia and different mental disorders. Relevant posts of active users, who regularly participate, were extrapolated providing a new method of obtaining low-bias content and without privacy issues. Furthermore, it is shown how to pre-process the dataset to convert it into a QA dataset. The Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), DistilBERT, RoBERTa, and BioBERT models were fine-tuned and evaluated via F1-Score, Exact Match, Precision and Recall. Accurate empirical experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method for obtaining an accurate dataset for QA model implementation. By fine-tuning the BioBERT QA model, we achieved an F1 score of 0.885, showing a considerable improvement and outperforming the state-of-the-art model for mental disorders domain.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

In this paper, we describe our submissions to the WMT17 Multimodal Translation Task. For Task 1 (multimodal translation), our best scoring system is a purely textual neural translation of the source image caption to the target language. The main feature of the system is the use of additional data that was acquired by selecting similar sentences from parallel corpora and by data synthesis with back-translation. For Task 2 (cross-lingual image captioning), our best submitted system generates an English caption which is then translated by the best system used in Task 1. We also present negative results, which are based on ideas that we believe have potential of making improvements, but did not prove to be useful in our particular setup.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language understanding and generation across various domains, including medicine. We present a comprehensive evaluation of GPT-4, a state-of-the-art LLM, on medical competency examinations and benchmark datasets. GPT-4 is a general-purpose model that is not specialized for medical problems through training or engineered to solve clinical tasks. Our analysis covers two sets of official practice materials for the USMLE, a three-step examination program used to assess clinical competency and grant licensure in the United States. We also evaluate performance on the MultiMedQA suite of benchmark datasets. Beyond measuring model performance, experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of test questions containing both text and images on model performance, probe for memorization of content during training, and study probability calibration, which is of critical importance in high-stakes applications like medicine. Our results show that GPT-4, without any specialized prompt crafting, exceeds the passing score on USMLE by over 20 points and outperforms earlier general-purpose models (GPT-3.5) as well as models specifically fine-tuned on medical knowledge (Med-PaLM, a prompt-tuned version of Flan-PaLM 540B). In addition, GPT-4 is significantly better calibrated than GPT-3.5, demonstrating a much-improved ability to predict the likelihood that its answers are correct. We also explore the behavior of the model qualitatively through a case study that shows the ability of GPT-4 to explain medical reasoning, personalize explanations to students, and interactively craft new counterfactual scenarios around a medical case. Implications of the findings are discussed for potential uses of GPT-4 in medical education, assessment, and clinical practice, with appropriate attention to challenges of accuracy and safety.

Predicting gender by the first name is not a simple task. In many applications, especially in the natural language processing (NLP) field, this task may be necessary, mainly when considering foreign names. In this paper, we examined and implemented several machine learning algorithms, such as extra trees, KNN, Naive Bayes, SVM, random forest, gradient boosting, light GBM, logistic regression, ridge classifier, and deep neural network models, such as MLP, RNN, GRU, CNN, and BiLSTM, to classify gender through the first name. A dataset of Brazilian names is used to train and evaluate the models. We analyzed the accuracy, recall, precision, f1 score, and confusion matrix to measure the models' performances. The results indicate that the gender prediction can be performed from the feature extraction strategy looking at the names as a set of strings. Some models accurately predict gender in more than 95% of the cases. The recurrent models overcome the feedforward models in this binary classification problem.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a heavy burden to the healthcare system worldwide and caused huge social disruption and economic loss. Many deep learning models have been proposed to conduct clinical predictive tasks such as mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Despite their initial success in certain clinical applications, there is currently a lack of benchmarking results to achieve a fair comparison so that we can select the optimal model for clinical use. Furthermore, there is a discrepancy between the formulation of traditional prediction tasks and real-world clinical practice in intensive care. To fill these gaps, we propose two clinical prediction tasks, Outcome-specific length-of-stay prediction and Early mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units. The two tasks are adapted from the naive length-of-stay and mortality prediction tasks to accommodate the clinical practice for COVID-19 patients. We propose fair, detailed, open-source data-preprocessing pipelines and evaluate 17 state-of-the-art predictive models on two tasks, including 5 machine learning models, 6 basic deep learning models and 6 deep learning predictive models specifically designed for EHR data. We provide benchmarking results using data from two real-world COVID-19 EHR datasets. One dataset is publicly available without needing any inquiry and another dataset can be accessed on request. We provide fair, reproducible benchmarking results for two tasks. We deploy all experiment results and models on an online platform. We also allow clinicians and researchers to upload their data to the platform and get quick prediction results using our trained models. We hope our efforts can further facilitate deep learning and machine learning research for COVID-19 predictive modeling.

Objective: We develop a deep learning framework based on the pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model using unstructured clinical notes from electronic health records (EHRs) to predict the risk of disease progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Materials and Methods: We identified 3657 patients diagnosed with MCI together with their progress notes from Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse (NMEDW) between 2000-2020. The progress notes no later than the first MCI diagnosis were used for the prediction. We first preprocessed the notes by deidentification, cleaning and splitting, and then pretrained a BERT model for AD (AD-BERT) based on the publicly available Bio+Clinical BERT on the preprocessed notes. The embeddings of all the sections of a patient's notes processed by AD-BERT were combined by MaxPooling to compute the probability of MCI-to-AD progression. For replication, we conducted a similar set of experiments on 2563 MCI patients identified at Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM) during the same timeframe. Results: Compared with the 7 baseline models, the AD-BERT model achieved the best performance on both datasets, with Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.8170 and F1 score of 0.4178 on NMEDW dataset and AUC of 0.8830 and F1 score of 0.6836 on WCM dataset. Conclusion: We developed a deep learning framework using BERT models which provide an effective solution for prediction of MCI-to-AD progression using clinical note analysis.

Collaborative filtering generates recommendations based on user-item similarities through rating data, which may involve numerous unrated items. To predict scores for unrated items, matrix factorization techniques, such as nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), are often employed to predict scores for unrated items. Nonnegative/binary matrix factorization (NBMF), which is an extension of NMF, approximates a nonnegative matrix as the product of nonnegative and binary matrices. Previous studies have employed NBMF for image analysis where the data were dense. In this paper, we propose a modified NBMF algorithm that can be applied to collaborative filtering where data are sparse. In the modified method, unrated elements in a rating matrix are masked, which improves the collaborative filtering performance. Utilizing a low-latency Ising machine in NBMF is advantageous in terms of the computation time, making the proposed method beneficial.

We introduce BM25S, an efficient Python-based implementation of BM25 that only depends on Numpy and Scipy. BM25S achieves up to a 500x speedup compared to the most popular Python-based framework by eagerly computing BM25 scores during indexing and storing them into sparse matrices. It also achieves considerable speedups compared to highly optimized Java-based implementations, which are used by popular commercial products. Finally, BM25S reproduces the exact implementation of five BM25 variants based on Kamphuis et al. (2020) by extending eager scoring to non-sparse variants using a novel score shifting method. The code can be found at https://github.com/xhluca/bm25s

Clinical notes contain rich data, which is unexploited in predictive modeling compared to structured data. In this work, we developed a new text representation Clinical XLNet for clinical notes which also leverages the temporal information of the sequence of the notes. We evaluated our models on prolonged mechanical ventilation prediction problem and our experiments demonstrated that Clinical XLNet outperforms the best baselines consistently.

Understanding causal narratives communicated in clinical notes can help make strides towards personalized healthcare. Extracted causal information from clinical notes can be combined with structured EHR data such as patients' demographics, diagnoses, and medications. This will enhance healthcare providers' ability to identify aspects of a patient's story communicated in the clinical notes and help make more informed decisions. In this work, we propose annotation guidelines, develop an annotated corpus and provide baseline scores to identify types and direction of causal relations between a pair of biomedical concepts in clinical notes; communicated implicitly or explicitly, identified either in a single sentence or across multiple sentences. We annotate a total of 2714 de-identified examples sampled from the 2018 n2c2 shared task dataset and train four different language model based architectures. Annotation based on our guidelines achieved a high inter-annotator agreement i.e. Fleiss' kappa (kappa) score of 0.72, and our model for identification of causal relations achieved a macro F1 score of 0.56 on the test data. The high inter-annotator agreement for clinical text shows the quality of our annotation guidelines while the provided baseline F1 score sets the direction for future research towards understanding narratives in clinical texts.

Due to the diversity of assessment requirements in various application scenarios for the IQA task, existing IQA methods struggle to directly adapt to these varied requirements after training. Thus, when facing new requirements, a typical approach is fine-tuning these models on datasets specifically created for those requirements. However, it is time-consuming to establish IQA datasets. In this work, we propose a Prompt-based IQA (PromptIQA) that can directly adapt to new requirements without fine-tuning after training. On one hand, it utilizes a short sequence of Image-Score Pairs (ISP) as prompts for targeted predictions, which significantly reduces the dependency on the data requirements. On the other hand, PromptIQA is trained on a mixed dataset with two proposed data augmentation strategies to learn diverse requirements, thus enabling it to effectively adapt to new requirements. Experiments indicate that the PromptIQA outperforms SOTA methods with higher performance and better generalization. The code will be available.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

Question Answering, including Reading Comprehension, is one of the NLP research areas that has seen significant scientific breakthroughs over the past few years, thanks to the concomitant advances in Language Modeling. Most of these breakthroughs, however, are centered on the English language. In 2020, as a first strong initiative to bridge the gap to the French language, Illuin Technology introduced FQuAD1.1, a French Native Reading Comprehension dataset composed of 60,000+ questions and answers samples extracted from Wikipedia articles. Nonetheless, Question Answering models trained on this dataset have a major drawback: they are not able to predict when a given question has no answer in the paragraph of interest, therefore making unreliable predictions in various industrial use-cases. In the present work, we introduce FQuAD2.0, which extends FQuAD with 17,000+ unanswerable questions, annotated adversarially, in order to be similar to answerable ones. This new dataset, comprising a total of almost 80,000 questions, makes it possible to train French Question Answering models with the ability of distinguishing unanswerable questions from answerable ones. We benchmark several models with this dataset: our best model, a fine-tuned CamemBERT-large, achieves a F1 score of 82.3% on this classification task, and a F1 score of 83% on the Reading Comprehension task.

Student's grade retention is a key issue faced by many education systems, especially those in developing countries. In this paper, we seek to gauge the relevance of students' personality traits in predicting grade retention in Brazil. For that, we used data collected in 2012 and 2017, in the city of Sertaozinho, countryside of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The surveys taken in Sertaozinho included several socioeconomic questions, standardized tests, and a personality test. Moreover, students were in grades 4, 5, and 6 in 2012. Our approach was based on training machine learning models on the surveys' data to predict grade retention between 2012 and 2017 using information from 2012 or before, and then using some strategies to quantify personality traits' predictive power. We concluded that, besides proving to be fairly better than a random classifier when isolated, personality traits contribute to prediction even when using socioeconomic variables and standardized tests results.

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

We introduce SHADOW, a fine-tuned language model trained on an intermediate task using associative deductive reasoning, and measure its performance on a knowledge base construction task using Wikidata triple completion. We evaluate SHADOW on the LM-KBC 2024 challenge and show that it outperforms the baseline solution by 20% with a F1 score of 68.72%.

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Text embedding models have been popular for information retrieval applications such as semantic search and Question-Answering systems based on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Those models are typically Transformer models that are fine-tuned with contrastive learning objectives. Many papers introduced new embedding model architectures and training approaches, however, one of the key ingredients, the process of mining negative passages, remains poorly explored or described. One of the challenging aspects of fine-tuning embedding models is the selection of high quality hard-negative passages for contrastive learning. In this paper we propose a family of positive-aware mining methods that leverage the positive relevance score for more effective false negatives removal. We also provide a comprehensive ablation study on hard-negative mining methods over their configurations, exploring different teacher and base models. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed methods by introducing the NV-Retriever-v1 model, which scores 60.9 on MTEB Retrieval (BEIR) benchmark and 0.65 points higher than previous methods. The model placed 1st when it was published to MTEB Retrieval on July 07, 2024.

The advent of natural language understanding (NLU) benchmarks for English, such as GLUE and SuperGLUE allows new NLU models to be evaluated across a diverse set of tasks. These comprehensive benchmarks have facilitated a broad range of research and applications in natural language processing (NLP). The problem, however, is that most such benchmarks are limited to English, which has made it difficult to replicate many of the successes in English NLU for other languages. To help remedy this issue, we introduce the first large-scale Chinese Language Understanding Evaluation (CLUE) benchmark. CLUE is an open-ended, community-driven project that brings together 9 tasks spanning several well-established single-sentence/sentence-pair classification tasks, as well as machine reading comprehension, all on original Chinese text. To establish results on these tasks, we report scores using an exhaustive set of current state-of-the-art pre-trained Chinese models (9 in total). We also introduce a number of supplementary datasets and additional tools to help facilitate further progress on Chinese NLU. Our benchmark is released at https://www.CLUEbenchmarks.com

Food Computing is currently a fast-growing field of research. Natural language processing (NLP) is also increasingly essential in this field, especially for recognising food entities. However, there are still only a few well-defined tasks that serve as benchmarks for solutions in this area. We introduce a new dataset -- called TASTEset -- to bridge this gap. In this dataset, Named Entity Recognition (NER) models are expected to find or infer various types of entities helpful in processing recipes, e.g.~food products, quantities and their units, names of cooking processes, physical quality of ingredients, their purpose, taste. The dataset consists of 700 recipes with more than 13,000 entities to extract. We provide a few state-of-the-art baselines of named entity recognition models, which show that our dataset poses a solid challenge to existing models. The best model achieved, on average, 0.95 F_1 score, depending on the entity type -- from 0.781 to 0.982. We share the dataset and the task to encourage progress on more in-depth and complex information extraction from recipes.

Deep generative models are powerful tools that have produced impressive results in recent years. These advances have been for the most part empirically driven, making it essential that we use high quality evaluation metrics. In this paper, we provide new insights into the Inception Score, a recently proposed and widely used evaluation metric for generative models, and demonstrate that it fails to provide useful guidance when comparing models. We discuss both suboptimalities of the metric itself and issues with its application. Finally, we call for researchers to be more systematic and careful when evaluating and comparing generative models, as the advancement of the field depends upon it.

It is of great significance to estimate the performance of a given model architecture without training in the application of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) as it may take a lot of time to evaluate the performance of an architecture. In this paper, a novel NAS framework called GP-NAS-ensemble is proposed to predict the performance of a neural network architecture with a small training dataset. We make several improvements on the GP-NAS model to make it share the advantage of ensemble learning methods. Our method ranks second in the CVPR2022 second lightweight NAS challenge performance prediction track.

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d=28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.5% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.8% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.93.

Automated essay scoring (AES) involves predicting a score that reflects the writing quality of an essay. Most existing AES systems produce only a single overall score. However, users and L2 learners expect scores across different dimensions (e.g., vocabulary, grammar, coherence) for English essays in real-world applications. To address this need, we have developed two models that automatically score English essays across multiple dimensions by employing fine-tuning and other strategies on two large datasets. The results demonstrate that our systems achieve impressive performance in evaluation using three criteria: precision, F1 score, and Quadratic Weighted Kappa. Furthermore, our system outperforms existing methods in overall scoring.

As machine learning models evolve, maintaining transparency demands more human-centric explainable AI techniques. Counterfactual explanations, with roots in human reasoning, identify the minimal input changes needed to obtain a given output and, hence, are crucial for supporting decision-making. Despite their importance, the evaluation of these explanations often lacks grounding in user studies and remains fragmented, with existing metrics not fully capturing human perspectives. To address this challenge, we developed a diverse set of 30 counterfactual scenarios and collected ratings across 8 evaluation metrics from 206 respondents. Subsequently, we fine-tuned different Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict average or individual human judgment across these metrics. Our methodology allowed LLMs to achieve an accuracy of up to 63% in zero-shot evaluations and 85% (over a 3-classes prediction) with fine-tuning across all metrics. The fine-tuned models predicting human ratings offer better comparability and scalability in evaluating different counterfactual explanation frameworks.

This research investigates prompt designs of evaluating generated texts using large language models (LLMs). While LLMs are increasingly used for scoring various inputs, creating effective prompts for open-ended text evaluation remains challenging due to model sensitivity and subjectivity in evaluation of text generation. Our study experimented with different prompt structures, altering the sequence of output instructions and including explanatory reasons. We found that the order of presenting reasons and scores significantly influences LLMs' scoring, with a different level of rule understanding in the prompt. An additional optimization may enhance scoring alignment if sufficient data is available. This insight is crucial for improving the accuracy and consistency of LLM-based evaluations.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

Critique, as a natural language description for assessing the quality of model-generated content, has been proven to play an essential role in the training, evaluation, and refinement of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, there is a lack of principled understanding in evaluating the quality of the critique itself. In this paper, we pioneer the critique of critique, termed MetaCritique, which is a framework to evaluate the critique from two aspects, i.e., factuality as precision score and comprehensiveness as recall score. We calculate the harmonic mean of precision and recall as the overall rating called F1 score. To obtain a reliable evaluation outcome, we propose Atomic Information Units (AIUs), which describe the critique in a more fine-grained manner. MetaCritique takes each AIU into account and aggregates each AIU's judgment for the overall score. Moreover, given the evaluation process involves intricate reasoning, our MetaCritique provides a natural language rationale to support each judgment. We construct a meta-evaluation dataset containing 300 critiques (2653 AIUs) across four tasks (question answering, reasoning, entailment, and summarization), and we conduct a comparative study to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness. Experiments also show superior critique judged by MetaCritique leads to better refinement, indicating generative artificial intelligence indeed has the potential to be significantly advanced with our MetaCritique. We will release relevant code and meta-evaluation datasets at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/MetaCritique.

We evaluated the effectiveness of using language models, that were pre-trained in one domain, as the basis for a classification model in another domain: Dutch book reviews. Pre-trained language models have opened up new possibilities for classification tasks with limited labelled data, because representation can be learned in an unsupervised fashion. In our experiments we have studied the effects of training set size (100-1600 items) on the prediction accuracy of a ULMFiT classifier, based on a language models that we pre-trained on the Dutch Wikipedia. We also compared ULMFiT to Support Vector Machines, which is traditionally considered suitable for small collections. We found that ULMFiT outperforms SVM for all training set sizes and that satisfactory results (~90%) can be achieved using training sets that can be manually annotated within a few hours. We deliver both our new benchmark collection of Dutch book reviews for sentiment classification as well as the pre-trained Dutch language model to the community.

Current research on generative language models (GLMs) for automated text scoring (ATS) has focused almost exclusively on querying proprietary models via Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). Yet such practices raise issues around transparency and security, and these methods offer little in the way of efficiency or customizability. With the recent proliferation of smaller, open-source models, there is the option to explore GLMs with computers equipped with modest, consumer-grade hardware, that is, for the "GPU poor." In this study, we analyze the performance and efficiency of open-source, small-scale GLMs for ATS. Results show that GLMs can be fine-tuned to achieve adequate, though not state-of-the-art, performance. In addition to ATS, we take small steps towards analyzing models' capacity for generating feedback by prompting GLMs to explain their scores. Model-generated feedback shows promise, but requires more rigorous evaluation focused on targeted use cases.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Zero-shot LLMs are now also used for textual classification tasks, e.g., sentiment/emotion detection of a given input as a sentence/article. However, their performance can be suboptimal in such data annotation tasks. We introduce a novel technique Perceived Confidence Scoring (PCS) that evaluates LLM's confidence for its classification of an input by leveraging Metamorphic Relations (MRs). The MRs generate semantically equivalent yet textually mutated versions of the input. Following the principles of Metamorphic Testing (MT), the mutated versions are expected to have annotation labels similar to the input. By analyzing the consistency of LLM responses across these variations, PCS computes a confidence score based on the frequency of predicted labels. PCS can be used both for single LLM and multiple LLM settings (e.g., majority voting). We introduce an algorithm Perceived Differential Evolution (PDE) that determines the optimal weights assigned to the MRs and the LLMs for a classification task. Empirical evaluation shows PCS significantly improves zero-shot accuracy for Llama-3-8B-Instruct (4.96%) and Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3 (10.52%), with Gemma-2-9b-it showing a 9.39% gain. When combining all three models, PCS significantly outperforms majority voting by 7.75%.