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Mar 14

A Discriminative Approach to Bayesian Filtering with Applications to Human Neural Decoding

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Next Generation Multitarget Trackers: Random Finite Set Methods vs Transformer-based Deep Learning

Multitarget Tracking (MTT) is the problem of tracking the states of an unknown number of objects using noisy measurements, with important applications to autonomous driving, surveillance, robotics, and others. In the model-based Bayesian setting, there are conjugate priors that enable us to express the multi-object posterior in closed form, which could theoretically provide Bayes-optimal estimates. However, the posterior involves a super-exponential growth of the number of hypotheses over time, forcing state-of-the-art methods to resort to approximations for remaining tractable, which can impact their performance in complex scenarios. Model-free methods based on deep-learning provide an attractive alternative, as they can, in principle, learn the optimal filter from data, but to the best of our knowledge were never compared to current state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, specially not in contexts where accurate models are available. In this paper, we propose a high-performing deep-learning method for MTT based on the Transformer architecture and compare it to two state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, in a setting where we assume the correct model is provided. Although this gives an edge to the model-based filters, it also allows us to generate unlimited training data. We show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art Bayesian filters in complex scenarios, while matching their performance in simpler cases, which validates the applicability of deep-learning also in the model-based regime. The code for all our implementations is made available at https://github.com/JulianoLagana/MT3 .

State and parameter learning with PaRIS particle Gibbs

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Probabilistic 3D Multi-Object Cooperative Tracking for Autonomous Driving via Differentiable Multi-Sensor Kalman Filter

Current state-of-the-art autonomous driving vehicles mainly rely on each individual sensor system to perform perception tasks. Such a framework's reliability could be limited by occlusion or sensor failure. To address this issue, more recent research proposes using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication to share perception information with others. However, most relevant works focus only on cooperative detection and leave cooperative tracking an underexplored research field. A few recent datasets, such as V2V4Real, provide 3D multi-object cooperative tracking benchmarks. However, their proposed methods mainly use cooperative detection results as input to a standard single-sensor Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithm. In their approach, the measurement uncertainty of different sensors from different connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) may not be properly estimated to utilize the theoretical optimality property of Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel 3D multi-object cooperative tracking algorithm for autonomous driving via a differentiable multi-sensor Kalman Filter. Our algorithm learns to estimate measurement uncertainty for each detection that can better utilize the theoretical property of Kalman Filter-based tracking methods. The experiment results show that our algorithm improves the tracking accuracy by 17% with only 0.037x communication costs compared with the state-of-the-art method in V2V4Real. Our code and videos are available at https://github.com/eddyhkchiu/DMSTrack/ and https://eddyhkchiu.github.io/dmstrack.github.io/ .

Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Observation-Centric SORT: Rethinking SORT for Robust Multi-Object Tracking

Kalman filter (KF) based methods for multi-object tracking (MOT) make an assumption that objects move linearly. While this assumption is acceptable for very short periods of occlusion, linear estimates of motion for prolonged time can be highly inaccurate. Moreover, when there is no measurement available to update Kalman filter parameters, the standard convention is to trust the priori state estimations for posteriori update. This leads to the accumulation of errors during a period of occlusion. The error causes significant motion direction variance in practice. In this work, we show that a basic Kalman filter can still obtain state-of-the-art tracking performance if proper care is taken to fix the noise accumulated during occlusion. Instead of relying only on the linear state estimate (i.e., estimation-centric approach), we use object observations (i.e., the measurements by object detector) to compute a virtual trajectory over the occlusion period to fix the error accumulation of filter parameters during the occlusion period. This allows more time steps to correct errors accumulated during occlusion. We name our method Observation-Centric SORT (OC-SORT). It remains Simple, Online, and Real-Time but improves robustness during occlusion and non-linear motion. Given off-the-shelf detections as input, OC-SORT runs at 700+ FPS on a single CPU. It achieves state-of-the-art on multiple datasets, including MOT17, MOT20, KITTI, head tracking, and especially DanceTrack where the object motion is highly non-linear. The code and models are available at https://github.com/noahcao/OC_SORT.

Temporal Residual Guided Diffusion Framework for Event-Driven Video Reconstruction

Event-based video reconstruction has garnered increasing attention due to its advantages, such as high dynamic range and rapid motion capture capabilities. However, current methods often prioritize the extraction of temporal information from continuous event flow, leading to an overemphasis on low-frequency texture features in the scene, resulting in over-smoothing and blurry artifacts. Addressing this challenge necessitates the integration of conditional information, encompassing temporal features, low-frequency texture, and high-frequency events, to guide the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) in producing accurate and natural outputs. To tackle this issue, we introduce a novel approach, the Temporal Residual Guided Diffusion Framework, which effectively leverages both temporal and frequency-based event priors. Our framework incorporates three key conditioning modules: a pre-trained low-frequency intensity estimation module, a temporal recurrent encoder module, and an attention-based high-frequency prior enhancement module. In order to capture temporal scene variations from the events at the current moment, we employ a temporal-domain residual image as the target for the diffusion model. Through the combination of these three conditioning paths and the temporal residual framework, our framework excels in reconstructing high-quality videos from event flow, mitigating issues such as artifacts and over-smoothing commonly observed in previous approaches. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple benchmark datasets validate the superior performance of our framework compared to prior event-based reconstruction methods.

Discovery of interpretable structural model errors by combining Bayesian sparse regression and data assimilation: A chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky test case

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

A Unified Sampling Framework for Solver Searching of Diffusion Probabilistic Models

Recent years have witnessed the rapid progress and broad application of diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs). Sampling from DPMs can be viewed as solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE). Despite the promising performance, the generation of DPMs usually consumes much time due to the large number of function evaluations (NFE). Though recent works have accelerated the sampling to around 20 steps with high-order solvers, the sample quality with less than 10 NFE can still be improved. In this paper, we propose a unified sampling framework (USF) to study the optional strategies for solver. Under this framework, we further reveal that taking different solving strategies at different timesteps may help further decrease the truncation error, and a carefully designed solver schedule has the potential to improve the sample quality by a large margin. Therefore, we propose a new sampling framework based on the exponential integral formulation that allows free choices of solver strategy at each step and design specific decisions for the framework. Moreover, we propose S^3, a predictor-based search method that automatically optimizes the solver schedule to get a better time-quality trade-off of sampling. We demonstrate that S^3 can find outstanding solver schedules which outperform the state-of-the-art sampling methods on CIFAR-10, CelebA, ImageNet, and LSUN-Bedroom datasets. Specifically, we achieve 2.69 FID with 10 NFE and 6.86 FID with 5 NFE on CIFAR-10 dataset, outperforming the SOTA method significantly. We further apply S^3 to Stable-Diffusion model and get an acceleration ratio of 2times, showing the feasibility of sampling in very few steps without retraining the neural network.

Temporal Feature Matters: A Framework for Diffusion Model Quantization

The Diffusion models, widely used for image generation, face significant challenges related to their broad applicability due to prolonged inference times and high memory demands. Efficient Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is crucial to address these issues. However, unlike traditional models, diffusion models critically rely on the time-step for the multi-round denoising. Typically, each time-step is encoded into a hypersensitive temporal feature by several modules. Despite this, existing PTQ methods do not optimize these modules individually. Instead, they employ unsuitable reconstruction objectives and complex calibration methods, leading to significant disturbances in the temporal feature and denoising trajectory, as well as reduced compression efficiency. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel quantization framework that includes three strategies: 1) TIB-based Maintenance: Based on our innovative Temporal Information Block (TIB) definition, Temporal Information-aware Reconstruction (TIAR) and Finite Set Calibration (FSC) are developed to efficiently align original temporal features. 2) Cache-based Maintenance: Instead of indirect and complex optimization for the related modules, pre-computing and caching quantized counterparts of temporal features are developed to minimize errors. 3) Disturbance-aware Selection: Employ temporal feature errors to guide a fine-grained selection between the two maintenance strategies for further disturbance reduction. This framework preserves most of the temporal information and ensures high-quality end-to-end generation. Extensive testing on various datasets, diffusion models and hardware confirms our superior performance and acceleration..

TFMQ-DM: Temporal Feature Maintenance Quantization for Diffusion Models

The Diffusion model, a prevalent framework for image generation, encounters significant challenges in terms of broad applicability due to its extended inference times and substantial memory requirements. Efficient Post-training Quantization (PTQ) is pivotal for addressing these issues in traditional models. Different from traditional models, diffusion models heavily depend on the time-step t to achieve satisfactory multi-round denoising. Usually, t from the finite set {1, ldots, T} is encoded to a temporal feature by a few modules totally irrespective of the sampling data. However, existing PTQ methods do not optimize these modules separately. They adopt inappropriate reconstruction targets and complex calibration methods, resulting in a severe disturbance of the temporal feature and denoising trajectory, as well as a low compression efficiency. To solve these, we propose a Temporal Feature Maintenance Quantization (TFMQ) framework building upon a Temporal Information Block which is just related to the time-step t and unrelated to the sampling data. Powered by the pioneering block design, we devise temporal information aware reconstruction (TIAR) and finite set calibration (FSC) to align the full-precision temporal features in a limited time. Equipped with the framework, we can maintain the most temporal information and ensure the end-to-end generation quality. Extensive experiments on various datasets and diffusion models prove our state-of-the-art results. Remarkably, our quantization approach, for the first time, achieves model performance nearly on par with the full-precision model under 4-bit weight quantization. Additionally, our method incurs almost no extra computational cost and accelerates quantization time by 2.0 times on LSUN-Bedrooms 256 times 256 compared to previous works.

Physically Embodied Gaussian Splatting: A Realtime Correctable World Model for Robotics

For robots to robustly understand and interact with the physical world, it is highly beneficial to have a comprehensive representation - modelling geometry, physics, and visual observations - that informs perception, planning, and control algorithms. We propose a novel dual Gaussian-Particle representation that models the physical world while (i) enabling predictive simulation of future states and (ii) allowing online correction from visual observations in a dynamic world. Our representation comprises particles that capture the geometrical aspect of objects in the world and can be used alongside a particle-based physics system to anticipate physically plausible future states. Attached to these particles are 3D Gaussians that render images from any viewpoint through a splatting process thus capturing the visual state. By comparing the predicted and observed images, our approach generates visual forces that correct the particle positions while respecting known physical constraints. By integrating predictive physical modelling with continuous visually-derived corrections, our unified representation reasons about the present and future while synchronizing with reality. Our system runs in realtime at 30Hz using only 3 cameras. We validate our approach on 2D and 3D tracking tasks as well as photometric reconstruction quality. Videos are found at https://embodied-gaussians.github.io/.

Learning Semilinear Neural Operators : A Unified Recursive Framework For Prediction And Data Assimilation

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

Transcendental Idealism of Planner: Evaluating Perception from Planning Perspective for Autonomous Driving

Evaluating the performance of perception modules in autonomous driving is one of the most critical tasks in developing the complex intelligent system. While module-level unit test metrics adopted from traditional computer vision tasks are feasible to some extent, it remains far less explored to measure the impact of perceptual noise on the driving quality of autonomous vehicles in a consistent and holistic manner. In this work, we propose a principled framework that provides a coherent and systematic understanding of the impact an error in the perception module imposes on an autonomous agent's planning that actually controls the vehicle. Specifically, the planning process is formulated as expected utility maximisation, where all input signals from upstream modules jointly provide a world state description, and the planner strives for the optimal action by maximising the expected utility determined by both world states and actions. We show that, under practical conditions, the objective function can be represented as an inner product between the world state description and the utility function in a Hilbert space. This geometric interpretation enables a novel way to analyse the impact of noise in world state estimation on planning and leads to a universal metric for evaluating perception. The whole framework resembles the idea of transcendental idealism in the classical philosophical literature, which gives the name to our approach.

DPM-Solver-v3: Improved Diffusion ODE Solver with Empirical Model Statistics

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have exhibited excellent performance for high-fidelity image generation while suffering from inefficient sampling. Recent works accelerate the sampling procedure by proposing fast ODE solvers that leverage the specific ODE form of DPMs. However, they highly rely on specific parameterization during inference (such as noise/data prediction), which might not be the optimal choice. In this work, we propose a novel formulation towards the optimal parameterization during sampling that minimizes the first-order discretization error of the ODE solution. Based on such formulation, we propose DPM-Solver-v3, a new fast ODE solver for DPMs by introducing several coefficients efficiently computed on the pretrained model, which we call empirical model statistics. We further incorporate multistep methods and a predictor-corrector framework, and propose some techniques for improving sample quality at small numbers of function evaluations (NFE) or large guidance scales. Experiments show that DPM-Solver-v3 achieves consistently better or comparable performance in both unconditional and conditional sampling with both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs, especially in 5sim10 NFEs. We achieve FIDs of 12.21 (5 NFE), 2.51 (10 NFE) on unconditional CIFAR10, and MSE of 0.55 (5 NFE, 7.5 guidance scale) on Stable Diffusion, bringing a speed-up of 15\%sim30\% compared to previous state-of-the-art training-free methods. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPM-Solver-v3.

Variational Inference for SDEs Driven by Fractional Noise

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

Robustifying State-space Models for Long Sequences via Approximate Diagonalization

State-space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a framework for learning long-range sequence tasks. An example is the structured state-space sequence (S4) layer, which uses the diagonal-plus-low-rank structure of the HiPPO initialization framework. However, the complicated structure of the S4 layer poses challenges; and, in an effort to address these challenges, models such as S4D and S5 have considered a purely diagonal structure. This choice simplifies the implementation, improves computational efficiency, and allows channel communication. However, diagonalizing the HiPPO framework is itself an ill-posed problem. In this paper, we propose a general solution for this and related ill-posed diagonalization problems in machine learning. We introduce a generic, backward-stable "perturb-then-diagonalize" (PTD) methodology, which is based on the pseudospectral theory of non-normal operators, and which may be interpreted as the approximate diagonalization of the non-normal matrices defining SSMs. Based on this, we introduce the S4-PTD and S5-PTD models. Through theoretical analysis of the transfer functions of different initialization schemes, we demonstrate that the S4-PTD/S5-PTD initialization strongly converges to the HiPPO framework, while the S4D/S5 initialization only achieves weak convergences. As a result, our new models show resilience to Fourier-mode noise-perturbed inputs, a crucial property not achieved by the S4D/S5 models. In addition to improved robustness, our S5-PTD model averages 87.6% accuracy on the Long-Range Arena benchmark, demonstrating that the PTD methodology helps to improve the accuracy of deep learning models.

Forecasting Thermoacoustic Instabilities in Liquid Propellant Rocket Engines Using Multimodal Bayesian Deep Learning

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

ConsistencyDet: Robust Object Detector with Denoising Paradigm of Consistency Model

Object detection, a quintessential task in the realm of perceptual computing, can be tackled using a generative methodology. In the present study, we introduce a novel framework designed to articulate object detection as a denoising diffusion process, which operates on perturbed bounding boxes of annotated entities. This framework, termed ConsistencyDet, leverages an innovative denoising concept known as the Consistency Model. The hallmark of this model is its self-consistency feature, which empowers the model to map distorted information from any temporal stage back to its pristine state, thereby realizing a ``one-step denoising'' mechanism. Such an attribute markedly elevates the operational efficiency of the model, setting it apart from the conventional Diffusion Model. Throughout the training phase, ConsistencyDet initiates the diffusion sequence with noise-infused boxes derived from the ground-truth annotations and conditions the model to perform the denoising task. Subsequently, in the inference stage, the model employs a denoising sampling strategy that commences with bounding boxes randomly sampled from a normal distribution. Through iterative refinement, the model transforms an assortment of arbitrarily generated boxes into the definitive detections. Comprehensive evaluations employing standard benchmarks, such as MS-COCO and LVIS, corroborate that ConsistencyDet surpasses other leading-edge detectors in performance metrics.

Uncertainty quantification in a mechanical submodel driven by a Wasserstein-GAN

The analysis of parametric and non-parametric uncertainties of very large dynamical systems requires the construction of a stochastic model of said system. Linear approaches relying on random matrix theory and principal componant analysis can be used when systems undergo low-frequency vibrations. In the case of fast dynamics and wave propagation, we investigate a random generator of boundary conditions for fast submodels by using machine learning. We show that the use of non-linear techniques in machine learning and data-driven methods is highly relevant. Physics-informed neural networks is a possible choice for a data-driven method to replace linear modal analysis. An architecture that support a random component is necessary for the construction of the stochastic model of the physical system for non-parametric uncertainties, since the goal is to learn the underlying probabilistic distribution of uncertainty in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are suited for such applications, where the Wasserstein-GAN with gradient penalty variant offers improved convergence results for our problem. The objective of our approach is to train a GAN on data from a finite element method code (Fenics) so as to extract stochastic boundary conditions for faster finite element predictions on a submodel. The submodel and the training data have both the same geometrical support. It is a zone of interest for uncertainty quantification and relevant to engineering purposes. In the exploitation phase, the framework can be viewed as a randomized and parametrized simulation generator on the submodel, which can be used as a Monte Carlo estimator.

MambaTrack: A Simple Baseline for Multiple Object Tracking with State Space Model

Tracking by detection has been the prevailing paradigm in the field of Multi-object Tracking (MOT). These methods typically rely on the Kalman Filter to estimate the future locations of objects, assuming linear object motion. However, they fall short when tracking objects exhibiting nonlinear and diverse motion in scenarios like dancing and sports. In addition, there has been limited focus on utilizing learning-based motion predictors in MOT. To address these challenges, we resort to exploring data-driven motion prediction methods. Inspired by the great expectation of state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, in long-term sequence modeling with near-linear complexity, we introduce a Mamba-based motion model named Mamba moTion Predictor (MTP). MTP is designed to model the complex motion patterns of objects like dancers and athletes. Specifically, MTP takes the spatial-temporal location dynamics of objects as input, captures the motion pattern using a bi-Mamba encoding layer, and predicts the next motion. In real-world scenarios, objects may be missed due to occlusion or motion blur, leading to premature termination of their trajectories. To tackle this challenge, we further expand the application of MTP. We employ it in an autoregressive way to compensate for missing observations by utilizing its own predictions as inputs, thereby contributing to more consistent trajectories. Our proposed tracker, MambaTrack, demonstrates advanced performance on benchmarks such as Dancetrack and SportsMOT, which are characterized by complex motion and severe occlusion.

Diffusion Models for Medical Image Analysis: A Comprehensive Survey

Denoising diffusion models, a class of generative models, have garnered immense interest lately in various deep-learning problems. A diffusion probabilistic model defines a forward diffusion stage where the input data is gradually perturbed over several steps by adding Gaussian noise and then learns to reverse the diffusion process to retrieve the desired noise-free data from noisy data samples. Diffusion models are widely appreciated for their strong mode coverage and quality of the generated samples despite their known computational burdens. Capitalizing on the advances in computer vision, the field of medical imaging has also observed a growing interest in diffusion models. To help the researcher navigate this profusion, this survey intends to provide a comprehensive overview of diffusion models in the discipline of medical image analysis. Specifically, we introduce the solid theoretical foundation and fundamental concepts behind diffusion models and the three generic diffusion modelling frameworks: diffusion probabilistic models, noise-conditioned score networks, and stochastic differential equations. Then, we provide a systematic taxonomy of diffusion models in the medical domain and propose a multi-perspective categorization based on their application, imaging modality, organ of interest, and algorithms. To this end, we cover extensive applications of diffusion models in the medical domain. Furthermore, we emphasize the practical use case of some selected approaches, and then we discuss the limitations of the diffusion models in the medical domain and propose several directions to fulfill the demands of this field. Finally, we gather the overviewed studies with their available open-source implementations at https://github.com/amirhossein-kz/Awesome-Diffusion-Models-in-Medical-Imaging.

Spatiotemporal Entropy Model is All You Need for Learned Video Compression

The framework of dominant learned video compression methods is usually composed of motion prediction modules as well as motion vector and residual image compression modules, suffering from its complex structure and error propagation problem. Approaches have been proposed to reduce the complexity by replacing motion prediction modules with implicit flow networks. Error propagation aware training strategy is also proposed to alleviate incremental reconstruction errors from previously decoded frames. Although these methods have brought some improvement, little attention has been paid to the framework itself. Inspired by the success of learned image compression through simplifying the framework with a single deep neural network, it is natural to expect a better performance in video compression via a simple yet appropriate framework. Therefore, we propose a framework to directly compress raw-pixel frames (rather than residual images), where no extra motion prediction module is required. Instead, an entropy model is used to estimate the spatiotemporal redundancy in a latent space rather than pixel level, which significantly reduces the complexity of the framework. Specifically, the whole framework is a compression module, consisting of a unified auto-encoder which produces identically distributed latents for all frames, and a spatiotemporal entropy estimation model to minimize the entropy of these latents. Experiments showed that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance under the metric of multiscale structural similarity (MS-SSIM) and achieves competitive results under the metric of PSNR.

Dynamic 3D Gaussian Tracking for Graph-Based Neural Dynamics Modeling

Videos of robots interacting with objects encode rich information about the objects' dynamics. However, existing video prediction approaches typically do not explicitly account for the 3D information from videos, such as robot actions and objects' 3D states, limiting their use in real-world robotic applications. In this work, we introduce a framework to learn object dynamics directly from multi-view RGB videos by explicitly considering the robot's action trajectories and their effects on scene dynamics. We utilize the 3D Gaussian representation of 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) to train a particle-based dynamics model using Graph Neural Networks. This model operates on sparse control particles downsampled from the densely tracked 3D Gaussian reconstructions. By learning the neural dynamics model on offline robot interaction data, our method can predict object motions under varying initial configurations and unseen robot actions. The 3D transformations of Gaussians can be interpolated from the motions of control particles, enabling the rendering of predicted future object states and achieving action-conditioned video prediction. The dynamics model can also be applied to model-based planning frameworks for object manipulation tasks. We conduct experiments on various kinds of deformable materials, including ropes, clothes, and stuffed animals, demonstrating our framework's ability to model complex shapes and dynamics. Our project page is available at https://gs-dynamics.github.io.

Towards Real-world Event-guided Low-light Video Enhancement and Deblurring

In low-light conditions, capturing videos with frame-based cameras often requires long exposure times, resulting in motion blur and reduced visibility. While frame-based motion deblurring and low-light enhancement have been studied, they still pose significant challenges. Event cameras have emerged as a promising solution for improving image quality in low-light environments and addressing motion blur. They provide two key advantages: capturing scene details well even in low light due to their high dynamic range, and effectively capturing motion information during long exposures due to their high temporal resolution. Despite efforts to tackle low-light enhancement and motion deblurring using event cameras separately, previous work has not addressed both simultaneously. To explore the joint task, we first establish real-world datasets for event-guided low-light enhancement and deblurring using a hybrid camera system based on beam splitters. Subsequently, we introduce an end-to-end framework to effectively handle these tasks. Our framework incorporates a module to efficiently leverage temporal information from events and frames. Furthermore, we propose a module to utilize cross-modal feature information to employ a low-pass filter for noise suppression while enhancing the main structural information. Our proposed method significantly outperforms existing approaches in addressing the joint task. Our project pages are available at https://github.com/intelpro/ELEDNet.

HumanMAC: Masked Motion Completion for Human Motion Prediction

Human motion prediction is a classical problem in computer vision and computer graphics, which has a wide range of practical applications. Previous effects achieve great empirical performance based on an encoding-decoding style. The methods of this style work by first encoding previous motions to latent representations and then decoding the latent representations into predicted motions. However, in practice, they are still unsatisfactory due to several issues, including complicated loss constraints, cumbersome training processes, and scarce switch of different categories of motions in prediction. In this paper, to address the above issues, we jump out of the foregoing style and propose a novel framework from a new perspective. Specifically, our framework works in a masked completion fashion. In the training stage, we learn a motion diffusion model that generates motions from random noise. In the inference stage, with a denoising procedure, we make motion prediction conditioning on observed motions to output more continuous and controllable predictions. The proposed framework enjoys promising algorithmic properties, which only needs one loss in optimization and is trained in an end-to-end manner. Additionally, it accomplishes the switch of different categories of motions effectively, which is significant in realistic tasks, e.g., the animation task. Comprehensive experiments on benchmarks confirm the superiority of the proposed framework. The project page is available at https://lhchen.top/Human-MAC.

PFGM++: Unlocking the Potential of Physics-Inspired Generative Models

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Accelerating Image Generation with Sub-path Linear Approximation Model

Diffusion models have significantly advanced the state of the art in image, audio, and video generation tasks. However, their applications in practical scenarios are hindered by slow inference speed. Drawing inspiration from the approximation strategies utilized in consistency models, we propose the Sub-path Linear Approximation Model (SLAM), which accelerates diffusion models while maintaining high-quality image generation. SLAM treats the PF-ODE trajectory as a series of PF-ODE sub-paths divided by sampled points, and harnesses sub-path linear (SL) ODEs to form a progressive and continuous error estimation along each individual PF-ODE sub-path. The optimization on such SL-ODEs allows SLAM to construct denoising mappings with smaller cumulative approximated errors. An efficient distillation method is also developed to facilitate the incorporation of more advanced diffusion models, such as latent diffusion models. Our extensive experimental results demonstrate that SLAM achieves an efficient training regimen, requiring only 6 A100 GPU days to produce a high-quality generative model capable of 2 to 4-step generation with high performance. Comprehensive evaluations on LAION, MS COCO 2014, and MS COCO 2017 datasets also illustrate that SLAM surpasses existing acceleration methods in few-step generation tasks, achieving state-of-the-art performance both on FID and the quality of the generated images.

Efficient estimation of multiple expectations with the same sample by adaptive importance sampling and control variates

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Denotational validation of higher-order Bayesian inference

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

On Kinetic Optimal Probability Paths for Generative Models

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the data separation function. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to 1 in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of n samples in d dimension as n/drightarrow 0. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes kinetic optimal as n/drightarrow 0. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.

Foundation Inference Models for Markov Jump Processes

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

SE(3) Diffusion Model-based Point Cloud Registration for Robust 6D Object Pose Estimation

In this paper, we introduce an SE(3) diffusion model-based point cloud registration framework for 6D object pose estimation in real-world scenarios. Our approach formulates the 3D registration task as a denoising diffusion process, which progressively refines the pose of the source point cloud to obtain a precise alignment with the model point cloud. Training our framework involves two operations: An SE(3) diffusion process and an SE(3) reverse process. The SE(3) diffusion process gradually perturbs the optimal rigid transformation of a pair of point clouds by continuously injecting noise (perturbation transformation). By contrast, the SE(3) reverse process focuses on learning a denoising network that refines the noisy transformation step-by-step, bringing it closer to the optimal transformation for accurate pose estimation. Unlike standard diffusion models used in linear Euclidean spaces, our diffusion model operates on the SE(3) manifold. This requires exploiting the linear Lie algebra se(3) associated with SE(3) to constrain the transformation transitions during the diffusion and reverse processes. Additionally, to effectively train our denoising network, we derive a registration-specific variational lower bound as the optimization objective for model learning. Furthermore, we show that our denoising network can be constructed with a surrogate registration model, making our approach applicable to different deep registration networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our diffusion registration framework presents outstanding pose estimation performance on the real-world TUD-L, LINEMOD, and Occluded-LINEMOD datasets.

TrackDiffusion: Tracklet-Conditioned Video Generation via Diffusion Models

Despite remarkable achievements in video synthesis, achieving granular control over complex dynamics, such as nuanced movement among multiple interacting objects, still presents a significant hurdle for dynamic world modeling, compounded by the necessity to manage appearance and disappearance, drastic scale changes, and ensure consistency for instances across frames. These challenges hinder the development of video generation that can faithfully mimic real-world complexity, limiting utility for applications requiring high-level realism and controllability, including advanced scene simulation and training of perception systems. To address that, we propose TrackDiffusion, a novel video generation framework affording fine-grained trajectory-conditioned motion control via diffusion models, which facilitates the precise manipulation of the object trajectories and interactions, overcoming the prevalent limitation of scale and continuity disruptions. A pivotal component of TrackDiffusion is the instance enhancer, which explicitly ensures inter-frame consistency of multiple objects, a critical factor overlooked in the current literature. Moreover, we demonstrate that generated video sequences by our TrackDiffusion can be used as training data for visual perception models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to apply video diffusion models with tracklet conditions and demonstrate that generated frames can be beneficial for improving the performance of object trackers.

Beyond Confidence: Adaptive Abstention in Dual-Threshold Conformal Prediction for Autonomous System Perception

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

TrajectoryFormer: 3D Object Tracking Transformer with Predictive Trajectory Hypotheses

3D multi-object tracking (MOT) is vital for many applications including autonomous driving vehicles and service robots. With the commonly used tracking-by-detection paradigm, 3D MOT has made important progress in recent years. However, these methods only use the detection boxes of the current frame to obtain trajectory-box association results, which makes it impossible for the tracker to recover objects missed by the detector. In this paper, we present TrajectoryFormer, a novel point-cloud-based 3D MOT framework. To recover the missed object by detector, we generates multiple trajectory hypotheses with hybrid candidate boxes, including temporally predicted boxes and current-frame detection boxes, for trajectory-box association. The predicted boxes can propagate object's history trajectory information to the current frame and thus the network can tolerate short-term miss detection of the tracked objects. We combine long-term object motion feature and short-term object appearance feature to create per-hypothesis feature embedding, which reduces the computational overhead for spatial-temporal encoding. Additionally, we introduce a Global-Local Interaction Module to conduct information interaction among all hypotheses and models their spatial relations, leading to accurate estimation of hypotheses. Our TrajectoryFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Waymo 3D MOT benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/poodarchu/EFG .

OOSTraj: Out-of-Sight Trajectory Prediction With Vision-Positioning Denoising

Trajectory prediction is fundamental in computer vision and autonomous driving, particularly for understanding pedestrian behavior and enabling proactive decision-making. Existing approaches in this field often assume precise and complete observational data, neglecting the challenges associated with out-of-view objects and the noise inherent in sensor data due to limited camera range, physical obstructions, and the absence of ground truth for denoised sensor data. Such oversights are critical safety concerns, as they can result in missing essential, non-visible objects. To bridge this gap, we present a novel method for out-of-sight trajectory prediction that leverages a vision-positioning technique. Our approach denoises noisy sensor observations in an unsupervised manner and precisely maps sensor-based trajectories of out-of-sight objects into visual trajectories. This method has demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in out-of-sight noisy sensor trajectory denoising and prediction on the Vi-Fi and JRDB datasets. By enhancing trajectory prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges of out-of-sight objects, our work significantly contributes to improving the safety and reliability of autonomous driving in complex environments. Our work represents the first initiative towards Out-Of-Sight Trajectory prediction (OOSTraj), setting a new benchmark for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/Hai-chao-Zhang/OOSTraj.

GS-LIVO: Real-Time LiDAR, Inertial, and Visual Multi-sensor Fused Odometry with Gaussian Mapping

In recent years, 3D Gaussian splatting (3D-GS) has emerged as a novel scene representation approach. However, existing vision-only 3D-GS methods often rely on hand-crafted heuristics for point-cloud densification and face challenges in handling occlusions and high GPU memory and computation consumption. LiDAR-Inertial-Visual (LIV) sensor configuration has demonstrated superior performance in localization and dense mapping by leveraging complementary sensing characteristics: rich texture information from cameras, precise geometric measurements from LiDAR, and high-frequency motion data from IMU. Inspired by this, we propose a novel real-time Gaussian-based simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) system. Our map system comprises a global Gaussian map and a sliding window of Gaussians, along with an IESKF-based odometry. The global Gaussian map consists of hash-indexed voxels organized in a recursive octree, effectively covering sparse spatial volumes while adapting to different levels of detail and scales. The Gaussian map is initialized through multi-sensor fusion and optimized with photometric gradients. Our system incrementally maintains a sliding window of Gaussians, significantly reducing GPU computation and memory consumption by only optimizing the map within the sliding window. Moreover, we implement a tightly coupled multi-sensor fusion odometry with an iterative error state Kalman filter (IESKF), leveraging real-time updating and rendering of the Gaussian map. Our system represents the first real-time Gaussian-based SLAM framework deployable on resource-constrained embedded systems, demonstrated on the NVIDIA Jetson Orin NX platform. The framework achieves real-time performance while maintaining robust multi-sensor fusion capabilities. All implementation algorithms, hardware designs, and CAD models will be publicly available.

Self-Supervised Learning via Conditional Motion Propagation

Intelligent agent naturally learns from motion. Various self-supervised algorithms have leveraged motion cues to learn effective visual representations. The hurdle here is that motion is both ambiguous and complex, rendering previous works either suffer from degraded learning efficacy, or resort to strong assumptions on object motions. In this work, we design a new learning-from-motion paradigm to bridge these gaps. Instead of explicitly modeling the motion probabilities, we design the pretext task as a conditional motion propagation problem. Given an input image and several sparse flow guidance vectors on it, our framework seeks to recover the full-image motion. Compared to other alternatives, our framework has several appealing properties: (1) Using sparse flow guidance during training resolves the inherent motion ambiguity, and thus easing feature learning. (2) Solving the pretext task of conditional motion propagation encourages the emergence of kinematically-sound representations that poss greater expressive power. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework learns structural and coherent features; and achieves state-of-the-art self-supervision performance on several downstream tasks including semantic segmentation, instance segmentation, and human parsing. Furthermore, our framework is successfully extended to several useful applications such as semi-automatic pixel-level annotation. Project page: "http://mmlab.ie.cuhk.edu.hk/projects/CMP/".

On Sequential Bayesian Inference for Continual Learning

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

A Variational Perspective on Solving Inverse Problems with Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have emerged as a key pillar of foundation models in visual domains. One of their critical applications is to universally solve different downstream inverse tasks via a single diffusion prior without re-training for each task. Most inverse tasks can be formulated as inferring a posterior distribution over data (e.g., a full image) given a measurement (e.g., a masked image). This is however challenging in diffusion models since the nonlinear and iterative nature of the diffusion process renders the posterior intractable. To cope with this challenge, we propose a variational approach that by design seeks to approximate the true posterior distribution. We show that our approach naturally leads to regularization by denoising diffusion process (RED-Diff) where denoisers at different timesteps concurrently impose different structural constraints over the image. To gauge the contribution of denoisers from different timesteps, we propose a weighting mechanism based on signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). Our approach provides a new variational perspective for solving inverse problems with diffusion models, allowing us to formulate sampling as stochastic optimization, where one can simply apply off-the-shelf solvers with lightweight iterates. Our experiments for image restoration tasks such as inpainting and superresolution demonstrate the strengths of our method compared with state-of-the-art sampling-based diffusion models.

MSF: Motion-guided Sequential Fusion for Efficient 3D Object Detection from Point Cloud Sequences

Point cloud sequences are commonly used to accurately detect 3D objects in applications such as autonomous driving. Current top-performing multi-frame detectors mostly follow a Detect-and-Fuse framework, which extracts features from each frame of the sequence and fuses them to detect the objects in the current frame. However, this inevitably leads to redundant computation since adjacent frames are highly correlated. In this paper, we propose an efficient Motion-guided Sequential Fusion (MSF) method, which exploits the continuity of object motion to mine useful sequential contexts for object detection in the current frame. We first generate 3D proposals on the current frame and propagate them to preceding frames based on the estimated velocities. The points-of-interest are then pooled from the sequence and encoded as proposal features. A novel Bidirectional Feature Aggregation (BiFA) module is further proposed to facilitate the interactions of proposal features across frames. Besides, we optimize the point cloud pooling by a voxel-based sampling technique so that millions of points can be processed in several milliseconds. The proposed MSF method achieves not only better efficiency than other multi-frame detectors but also leading accuracy, with 83.12% and 78.30% mAP on the LEVEL1 and LEVEL2 test sets of Waymo Open Dataset, respectively. Codes can be found at https://github.com/skyhehe123/MSF.

Spacecraft Autonomous Decision-Planning for Collision Avoidance: a Reinforcement Learning Approach

The space environment around the Earth is becoming increasingly populated by both active spacecraft and space debris. To avoid potential collision events, significant improvements in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) activities and Collision Avoidance (CA) technologies are allowing the tracking and maneuvering of spacecraft with increasing accuracy and reliability. However, these procedures still largely involve a high level of human intervention to make the necessary decisions. For an increasingly complex space environment, this decision-making strategy is not likely to be sustainable. Therefore, it is important to successfully introduce higher levels of automation for key Space Traffic Management (STM) processes to ensure the level of reliability needed for navigating a large number of spacecraft. These processes range from collision risk detection to the identification of the appropriate action to take and the execution of avoidance maneuvers. This work proposes an implementation of autonomous CA decision-making capabilities on spacecraft based on Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques. A novel methodology based on a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework is developed to train the Artificial Intelligence (AI) system on board the spacecraft, considering epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. The proposed framework considers imperfect monitoring information about the status of the debris in orbit and allows the AI system to effectively learn stochastic policies to perform accurate Collision Avoidance Maneuvers (CAMs). The objective is to successfully delegate the decision-making process for autonomously implementing a CAM to the spacecraft without human intervention. This approach would allow for a faster response in the decision-making process and for highly decentralized operations.

PVT++: A Simple End-to-End Latency-Aware Visual Tracking Framework

Visual object tracking is essential to intelligent robots. Most existing approaches have ignored the online latency that can cause severe performance degradation during real-world processing. Especially for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), where robust tracking is more challenging and onboard computation is limited, the latency issue can be fatal. In this work, we present a simple framework for end-to-end latency-aware tracking, i.e., end-to-end predictive visual tracking (PVT++). Unlike existing solutions that naively append Kalman Filters after trackers, PVT++ can be jointly optimized, so that it takes not only motion information but can also leverage the rich visual knowledge in most pre-trained tracker models for robust prediction. Besides, to bridge the training-evaluation domain gap, we propose a relative motion factor, empowering PVT++ to generalize to the challenging and complex UAV tracking scenes. These careful designs have made the small-capacity lightweight PVT++ a widely effective solution. Additionally, this work presents an extended latency-aware evaluation benchmark for assessing an any-speed tracker in the online setting. Empirical results on a robotic platform from the aerial perspective show that PVT++ can achieve significant performance gain on various trackers and exhibit higher accuracy than prior solutions, largely mitigating the degradation brought by latency.

DiffPose: SpatioTemporal Diffusion Model for Video-Based Human Pose Estimation

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models that were initially proposed for realistic image generation have recently shown success in various perception tasks (e.g., object detection and image segmentation) and are increasingly gaining attention in computer vision. However, extending such models to multi-frame human pose estimation is non-trivial due to the presence of the additional temporal dimension in videos. More importantly, learning representations that focus on keypoint regions is crucial for accurate localization of human joints. Nevertheless, the adaptation of the diffusion-based methods remains unclear on how to achieve such objective. In this paper, we present DiffPose, a novel diffusion architecture that formulates video-based human pose estimation as a conditional heatmap generation problem. First, to better leverage temporal information, we propose SpatioTemporal Representation Learner which aggregates visual evidences across frames and uses the resulting features in each denoising step as a condition. In addition, we present a mechanism called Lookup-based MultiScale Feature Interaction that determines the correlations between local joints and global contexts across multiple scales. This mechanism generates delicate representations that focus on keypoint regions. Altogether, by extending diffusion models, we show two unique characteristics from DiffPose on pose estimation task: (i) the ability to combine multiple sets of pose estimates to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for challenging joints, and (ii) the ability to adjust the number of iterative steps for feature refinement without retraining the model. DiffPose sets new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks: PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

DPM-OT: A New Diffusion Probabilistic Model Based on Optimal Transport

Sampling from diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) can be viewed as a piecewise distribution transformation, which generally requires hundreds or thousands of steps of the inverse diffusion trajectory to get a high-quality image. Recent progress in designing fast samplers for DPMs achieves a trade-off between sampling speed and sample quality by knowledge distillation or adjusting the variance schedule or the denoising equation. However, it can't be optimal in both aspects and often suffer from mode mixture in short steps. To tackle this problem, we innovatively regard inverse diffusion as an optimal transport (OT) problem between latents at different stages and propose the DPM-OT, a unified learning framework for fast DPMs with a direct expressway represented by OT map, which can generate high-quality samples within around 10 function evaluations. By calculating the semi-discrete optimal transport map between the data latents and the white noise, we obtain an expressway from the prior distribution to the data distribution, while significantly alleviating the problem of mode mixture. In addition, we give the error bound of the proposed method, which theoretically guarantees the stability of the algorithm. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness and advantages of DPM-OT in terms of speed and quality (FID and mode mixture), thus representing an efficient solution for generative modeling. Source codes are available at https://github.com/cognaclee/DPM-OT

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Deep Few-Shot Meta Learning

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Go-with-the-Flow: Motion-Controllable Video Diffusion Models Using Real-Time Warped Noise

Generative modeling aims to transform random noise into structured outputs. In this work, we enhance video diffusion models by allowing motion control via structured latent noise sampling. This is achieved by just a change in data: we pre-process training videos to yield structured noise. Consequently, our method is agnostic to diffusion model design, requiring no changes to model architectures or training pipelines. Specifically, we propose a novel noise warping algorithm, fast enough to run in real time, that replaces random temporal Gaussianity with correlated warped noise derived from optical flow fields, while preserving the spatial Gaussianity. The efficiency of our algorithm enables us to fine-tune modern video diffusion base models using warped noise with minimal overhead, and provide a one-stop solution for a wide range of user-friendly motion control: local object motion control, global camera movement control, and motion transfer. The harmonization between temporal coherence and spatial Gaussianity in our warped noise leads to effective motion control while maintaining per-frame pixel quality. Extensive experiments and user studies demonstrate the advantages of our method, making it a robust and scalable approach for controlling motion in video diffusion models. Video results are available on our webpage: https://vgenai-netflix-eyeline-research.github.io/Go-with-the-Flow. Source code and model checkpoints are available on GitHub: https://github.com/VGenAI-Netflix-Eyeline-Research/Go-with-the-Flow.

Lagrangian Coherent Track Initialisation (LCTI)

Advances in time-resolved Particle Tracking Velocimetry (4D-PTV) techniques have been consistently revealed more accurate Lagrangian particle motions. A novel track initialisation technique as a complementary part of 4D-PTV, based on local temporal and spatial coherency of neighbour trajectories, is proposed. The proposed Lagrangian Coherent Track Initialisation (LCTI) applies physics-based Finite Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) to build four frame coherent tracks. We locally determine the boundaries (i.e., ridges) of Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) among neighbour trajectories by using FTLE to distinguish clusters of coherent motions. To evaluate the proposed technique, we created an open-access synthetic Lagrangian and Eulerian dataset of the wake downstream of a smooth cylinder at a Reynolds number equal to 3900 obtained from 3D Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). The dataset is available to the public. Performance of the proposed method based on three characteristic parameters, temporal scale, particle concentration (i.e., density), and noise ratio, showed robust behaviour in finding true tracks compared to the recent initialisation algorithms. Sensitivity of LCTI to the number of untracked and wrong tracks are also discussed. We address the capability of using the proposed method as a function of a 4D-PTV scheme in the Lagrangian Particle Tracking challenge for a flow with high particle densities. Finally, the LCTI behaviour was assessed in a real jet impingement experiment. LCTI was found to be a reliable tracking tool in complex flow motions, with a strength revealed for flows with high particle concentrations.

Autoregressive Hidden Markov Models with partial knowledge on latent space applied to aero-engines prognostics

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Dehazing Ultrasound using Diffusion Models

Echocardiography has been a prominent tool for the diagnosis of cardiac disease. However, these diagnoses can be heavily impeded by poor image quality. Acoustic clutter emerges due to multipath reflections imposed by layers of skin, subcutaneous fat, and intercostal muscle between the transducer and heart. As a result, haze and other noise artifacts pose a real challenge to cardiac ultrasound imaging. In many cases, especially with difficult-to-image patients such as patients with obesity, a diagnosis from B-Mode ultrasound imaging is effectively rendered unusable, forcing sonographers to resort to contrast-enhanced ultrasound examinations or refer patients to other imaging modalities. Tissue harmonic imaging has been a popular approach to combat haze, but in severe cases is still heavily impacted by haze. Alternatively, denoising algorithms are typically unable to remove highly structured and correlated noise, such as haze. It remains a challenge to accurately describe the statistical properties of structured haze, and develop an inference method to subsequently remove it. Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative models and have shown their effectiveness in a variety of inverse problems. In this work, we present a joint posterior sampling framework that combines two separate diffusion models to model the distribution of both clean ultrasound and haze in an unsupervised manner. Furthermore, we demonstrate techniques for effectively training diffusion models on radio-frequency ultrasound data and highlight the advantages over image data. Experiments on both in-vitro and in-vivo cardiac datasets show that the proposed dehazing method effectively removes haze while preserving signals from weakly reflected tissue.

How to Train Your HiPPO: State Space Models with Generalized Orthogonal Basis Projections

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Ouroboros-Diffusion: Exploring Consistent Content Generation in Tuning-free Long Video Diffusion

The first-in-first-out (FIFO) video diffusion, built on a pre-trained text-to-video model, has recently emerged as an effective approach for tuning-free long video generation. This technique maintains a queue of video frames with progressively increasing noise, continuously producing clean frames at the queue's head while Gaussian noise is enqueued at the tail. However, FIFO-Diffusion often struggles to keep long-range temporal consistency in the generated videos due to the lack of correspondence modeling across frames. In this paper, we propose Ouroboros-Diffusion, a novel video denoising framework designed to enhance structural and content (subject) consistency, enabling the generation of consistent videos of arbitrary length. Specifically, we introduce a new latent sampling technique at the queue tail to improve structural consistency, ensuring perceptually smooth transitions among frames. To enhance subject consistency, we devise a Subject-Aware Cross-Frame Attention (SACFA) mechanism, which aligns subjects across frames within short segments to achieve better visual coherence. Furthermore, we introduce self-recurrent guidance. This technique leverages information from all previous cleaner frames at the front of the queue to guide the denoising of noisier frames at the end, fostering rich and contextual global information interaction. Extensive experiments of long video generation on the VBench benchmark demonstrate the superiority of our Ouroboros-Diffusion, particularly in terms of subject consistency, motion smoothness, and temporal consistency.

Privacy-preserving Pedestrian Tracking using Distributed 3D LiDARs

The growing demand for intelligent environments unleashes an extraordinary cycle of privacy-aware applications that makes individuals' life more comfortable and safe. Examples of these applications include pedestrian tracking systems in large areas. Although the ubiquity of camera-based systems, they are not a preferable solution due to the vulnerability of leaking the privacy of pedestrians. In this paper, we introduce a novel privacy-preserving system for pedestrian tracking in smart environments using multiple distributed LiDARs of non-overlapping views. The system is designed to leverage LiDAR devices to track pedestrians in partially covered areas due to practical constraints, e.g., occlusion or cost. Therefore, the system uses the point cloud captured by different LiDARs to extract discriminative features that are used to train a metric learning model for pedestrian matching purposes. To boost the system's robustness, we leverage a probabilistic approach to model and adapt the dynamic mobility patterns of individuals and thus connect their sub-trajectories. We deployed the system in a large-scale testbed with 70 colorless LiDARs and conducted three different experiments. The evaluation result at the entrance hall confirms the system's ability to accurately track the pedestrians with a 0.98 F-measure even with zero-covered areas. This result highlights the promise of the proposed system as the next generation of privacy-preserving tracking means in smart environments.

Target-based Surrogates for Stochastic Optimization

We consider minimizing functions for which it is expensive to compute the (possibly stochastic) gradient. Such functions are prevalent in reinforcement learning, imitation learning and adversarial training. Our target optimization framework uses the (expensive) gradient computation to construct surrogate functions in a target space (e.g. the logits output by a linear model for classification) that can be minimized efficiently. This allows for multiple parameter updates to the model, amortizing the cost of gradient computation. In the full-batch setting, we prove that our surrogate is a global upper-bound on the loss, and can be (locally) minimized using a black-box optimization algorithm. We prove that the resulting majorization-minimization algorithm ensures convergence to a stationary point of the loss. Next, we instantiate our framework in the stochastic setting and propose the SSO algorithm, which can be viewed as projected stochastic gradient descent in the target space. This connection enables us to prove theoretical guarantees for SSO when minimizing convex functions. Our framework allows the use of standard stochastic optimization algorithms to construct surrogates which can be minimized by any deterministic optimization method. To evaluate our framework, we consider a suite of supervised learning and imitation learning problems. Our experiments indicate the benefits of target optimization and the effectiveness of SSO.

Learned Inertial Odometry for Autonomous Drone Racing

Inertial odometry is an attractive solution to the problem of state estimation for agile quadrotor flight. It is inexpensive, lightweight, and it is not affected by perceptual degradation. However, only relying on the integration of the inertial measurements for state estimation is infeasible. The errors and time-varying biases present in such measurements cause the accumulation of large drift in the pose estimates. Recently, inertial odometry has made significant progress in estimating the motion of pedestrians. State-of-the-art algorithms rely on learning a motion prior that is typical of humans but cannot be transferred to drones. In this work, we propose a learning-based odometry algorithm that uses an inertial measurement unit (IMU) as the only sensor modality for autonomous drone racing tasks. The core idea of our system is to couple a model-based filter, driven by the inertial measurements, with a learning-based module that has access to the thrust measurements. We show that our inertial odometry algorithm is superior to the state-of-the-art filter-based and optimization-based visual-inertial odometry as well as the state-of-the-art learned-inertial odometry in estimating the pose of an autonomous racing drone. Additionally, we show that our system is comparable to a visual-inertial odometry solution that uses a camera and exploits the known gate location and appearance. We believe that the application in autonomous drone racing paves the way for novel research in inertial odometry for agile quadrotor flight.

ShaSTA-Fuse: Camera-LiDAR Sensor Fusion to Model Shape and Spatio-Temporal Affinities for 3D Multi-Object Tracking

3D multi-object tracking (MOT) is essential for an autonomous mobile agent to safely navigate a scene. In order to maximize the perception capabilities of the autonomous agent, we aim to develop a 3D MOT framework that fuses camera and LiDAR sensor information. Building on our prior LiDAR-only work, ShaSTA, which models shape and spatio-temporal affinities for 3D MOT, we propose a novel camera-LiDAR fusion approach for learning affinities. At its core, this work proposes a fusion technique that generates a rich sensory signal incorporating information about depth and distant objects to enhance affinity estimation for improved data association, track lifecycle management, false-positive elimination, false-negative propagation, and track confidence score refinement. Our main contributions include a novel fusion approach for combining camera and LiDAR sensory signals to learn affinities, and a first-of-its-kind multimodal sequential track confidence refinement technique that fuses 2D and 3D detections. Additionally, we perform an ablative analysis on each fusion step to demonstrate the added benefits of incorporating the camera sensor, particular for small, distant objects that tend to suffer from the depth-sensing limits and sparsity of LiDAR sensors. In sum, our technique achieves state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes benchmark amongst multimodal 3D MOT algorithms using CenterPoint detections.

PrimeDepth: Efficient Monocular Depth Estimation with a Stable Diffusion Preimage

This work addresses the task of zero-shot monocular depth estimation. A recent advance in this field has been the idea of utilising Text-to-Image foundation models, such as Stable Diffusion. Foundation models provide a rich and generic image representation, and therefore, little training data is required to reformulate them as a depth estimation model that predicts highly-detailed depth maps and has good generalisation capabilities. However, the realisation of this idea has so far led to approaches which are, unfortunately, highly inefficient at test-time due to the underlying iterative denoising process. In this work, we propose a different realisation of this idea and present PrimeDepth, a method that is highly efficient at test time while keeping, or even enhancing, the positive aspects of diffusion-based approaches. Our key idea is to extract from Stable Diffusion a rich, but frozen, image representation by running a single denoising step. This representation, we term preimage, is then fed into a refiner network with an architectural inductive bias, before entering the downstream task. We validate experimentally that PrimeDepth is two orders of magnitude faster than the leading diffusion-based method, Marigold, while being more robust for challenging scenarios and quantitatively marginally superior. Thereby, we reduce the gap to the currently leading data-driven approach, Depth Anything, which is still quantitatively superior, but predicts less detailed depth maps and requires 20 times more labelled data. Due to the complementary nature of our approach, even a simple averaging between PrimeDepth and Depth Anything predictions can improve upon both methods and sets a new state-of-the-art in zero-shot monocular depth estimation. In future, data-driven approaches may also benefit from integrating our preimage.

Alleviating Exposure Bias in Diffusion Models through Sampling with Shifted Time Steps

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPM) have shown remarkable efficacy in the synthesis of high-quality images. However, their inference process characteristically requires numerous, potentially hundreds, of iterative steps, which could exaggerate the problem of exposure bias due to the training and inference discrepancy. Previous work has attempted to mitigate this issue by perturbing inputs during training, which consequently mandates the retraining of the DPM. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of exposure bias in DPM and, intriguingly, we find that the exposure bias could be alleviated with a novel sampling method that we propose, without retraining the model. We empirically and theoretically show that, during inference, for each backward time step t and corresponding state x_t, there might exist another time step t_s which exhibits superior coupling with x_t. Based on this finding, we introduce a sampling method named Time-Shift Sampler. Our framework can be seamlessly integrated to existing sampling algorithms, such as DDPM, DDIM and other high-order solvers, inducing merely minimal additional computations. Experimental results show our method brings significant and consistent improvements in FID scores on different datasets and sampling methods. For example, integrating Time-Shift Sampler to F-PNDM yields a FID=3.88, achieving 44.49\% improvements as compared to F-PNDM, on CIFAR-10 with 10 sampling steps, which is more performant than the vanilla DDIM with 100 sampling steps. Our code is available at https://github.com/Mingxiao-Li/TS-DPM.