Daily Papers

The success of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in language processing is typically attributed to their ability to capture long-distance statistical regularities. Linguistic regularities are often sensitive to syntactic structure; can such dependencies be captured by LSTMs, which do not have explicit structural representations? We begin addressing this question using number agreement in English subject-verb dependencies. We probe the architecture's grammatical competence both using training objectives with an explicit grammatical target (number prediction, grammaticality judgments) and using language models. In the strongly supervised settings, the LSTM achieved very high overall accuracy (less than 1% errors), but errors increased when sequential and structural information conflicted. The frequency of such errors rose sharply in the language-modeling setting. We conclude that LSTMs can capture a non-trivial amount of grammatical structure given targeted supervision, but stronger architectures may be required to further reduce errors; furthermore, the language modeling signal is insufficient for capturing syntax-sensitive dependencies, and should be supplemented with more direct supervision if such dependencies need to be captured.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Memory-based meta-learning is a powerful technique to build agents that adapt fast to any task within a target distribution. A previous theoretical study has argued that this remarkable performance is because the meta-training protocol incentivises agents to behave Bayes-optimally. We empirically investigate this claim on a number of prediction and bandit tasks. Inspired by ideas from theoretical computer science, we show that meta-learned and Bayes-optimal agents not only behave alike, but they even share a similar computational structure, in the sense that one agent system can approximately simulate the other. Furthermore, we show that Bayes-optimal agents are fixed points of the meta-learning dynamics. Our results suggest that memory-based meta-learning might serve as a general technique for numerically approximating Bayes-optimal agents - that is, even for task distributions for which we currently don't possess tractable models.

The advances in Vision-Language models (VLMs) offer exciting opportunities for robotic applications involving image geo-localization, the problem of identifying the geo-coordinates of a place based on visual data only. Recent research works have focused on using a VLM as embeddings extractor for geo-localization, however, the most sophisticated VLMs may only be available as black boxes that are accessible through an API, and come with a number of limitations: there is no access to training data, model features and gradients; retraining is not possible; the number of predictions may be limited by the API; training on model outputs is often prohibited; and queries are open-ended. The utilization of a VLM as a stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization system using a single text-based prompt is largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, this paper undertakes the first systematic study, to the best of our knowledge, to investigate the potential of some of the state-of-the-art VLMs as stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization systems in a black-box setting with realistic constraints. We consider three main scenarios for this thorough investigation: a) fixed text-based prompt; b) semantically-equivalent text-based prompts; and c) semantically-equivalent query images. We also take into account the auto-regressive and probabilistic generation process of the VLMs when investigating their utility for geo-localization task by using model consistency as a metric in addition to traditional accuracy. Our work provides new insights in the capabilities of different VLMs for the above-mentioned scenarios.

Modern text-to-image generation models produce high-quality images that are both photorealistic and faithful to the text prompts. However, this quality comes at significant computational cost: nearly all of these models are iterative and require running inference multiple times with large models. This iterative process is needed to ensure that different regions of the image are not only aligned with the text prompt, but also compatible with each other. In this work, we propose a light-weight approach to achieving this compatibility between different regions of an image, using a Markov Random Field (MRF) model. This method is shown to work in conjunction with the recently proposed Muse model. The MRF encodes the compatibility among image tokens at different spatial locations and enables us to significantly reduce the required number of Muse prediction steps. Inference with the MRF is significantly cheaper, and its parameters can be quickly learned through back-propagation by modeling MRF inference as a differentiable neural-network layer. Our full model, SPEGTI, uses this proposed MRF model to speed up Muse by 1.5X with no loss in output image quality.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Weather radar is the primary tool used by forecasters to detect and warn for tornadoes in near-real time. In order to assist forecasters in warning the public, several algorithms have been developed to automatically detect tornadic signatures in weather radar observations. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, which learn directly from large amounts of labeled data, have been shown to be highly effective for this purpose. Since tornadoes are extremely rare events within the corpus of all available radar observations, the selection and design of training datasets for ML applications is critical for the performance, robustness, and ultimate acceptance of ML algorithms. This study introduces a new benchmark dataset, TorNet to support development of ML algorithms in tornado detection and prediction. TorNet contains full-resolution, polarimetric, Level-II WSR-88D data sampled from 10 years of reported storm events. A number of ML baselines for tornado detection are developed and compared, including a novel deep learning (DL) architecture capable of processing raw radar imagery without the need for manual feature extraction required for existing ML algorithms. Despite not benefiting from manual feature engineering or other preprocessing, the DL model shows increased detection performance compared to non-DL and operational baselines. The TorNet dataset, as well as source code and model weights of the DL baseline trained in this work, are made freely available.

We introduce a novel generative model for video prediction based on latent flow matching, an efficient alternative to diffusion-based models. In contrast to prior work, we keep the high costs of modeling the past during training and inference at bay by conditioning only on a small random set of past frames at each integration step of the image generation process. Moreover, to enable the generation of high-resolution videos and to speed up the training, we work in the latent space of a pretrained VQGAN. Finally, we propose to approximate the initial condition of the flow ODE with the previous noisy frame. This allows to reduce the number of integration steps and hence, speed up the sampling at inference time. We call our model Random frame conditioned flow Integration for VidEo pRediction, or, in short, RIVER. We show that RIVER achieves superior or on par performance compared to prior work on common video prediction benchmarks, while requiring an order of magnitude fewer computational resources.

Developing clinical prediction models (e.g., mortality prediction) based on electronic health records (EHRs) typically relies on expert opinion for feature selection and adjusting observation window size. This burdens experts and creates a bottleneck in the development process. We propose Retrieval-Enhanced Medical prediction model (REMed) to address such challenges. REMed can essentially evaluate an unlimited number of clinical events, select the relevant ones, and make predictions. This approach effectively eliminates the need for manual feature selection and enables an unrestricted observation window. We verified these properties through experiments on 27 clinical tasks and two independent cohorts from publicly available EHR datasets, where REMed outperformed other contemporary architectures that aim to handle as many events as possible. Notably, we found that the preferences of REMed align closely with those of medical experts. We expect our approach to significantly expedite the development of EHR prediction models by minimizing clinicians' need for manual involvement.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

Entity linking is a prominent thread of research focused on structured data creation by linking spans of text to an ontology or knowledge source. We revisit the use of structured prediction for entity linking which classifies each individual input token as an entity, and aggregates the token predictions. Our system, called SpEL (Structured prediction for Entity Linking) is a state-of-the-art entity linking system that uses some new ideas to apply structured prediction to the task of entity linking including: two refined fine-tuning steps; a context sensitive prediction aggregation strategy; reduction of the size of the model's output vocabulary, and; we address a common problem in entity-linking systems where there is a training vs. inference tokenization mismatch. Our experiments show that we can outperform the state-of-the-art on the commonly used AIDA benchmark dataset for entity linking to Wikipedia. Our method is also very compute efficient in terms of number of parameters and speed of inference.

Semantic answer type prediction (SMART) is known to be a useful step towards effective question answering (QA) systems. The SMART task involves predicting the top-k knowledge graph (KG) types for a given natural language question. This is challenging due to the large number of types in KGs. In this paper, we propose use of extreme multi-label classification using Transformer models (XBERT) by clustering KG types using structural and semantic features based on question text. We specifically improve the clustering stage of the XBERT pipeline using textual and structural features derived from KGs. We show that these features can improve end-to-end performance for the SMART task, and yield state-of-the-art results.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Next-Token Prediction (NTP) is a de facto approach for autoregressive (AR) video generation, but it suffers from suboptimal unidirectional dependencies and slow inference speed. In this work, we propose a semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) framework, called Next-Block Prediction (NBP), for video generation. By uniformly decomposing video content into equal-sized blocks (e.g., rows or frames), we shift the generation unit from individual tokens to blocks, allowing each token in the current block to simultaneously predict the corresponding token in the next block. Unlike traditional AR modeling, our framework employs bidirectional attention within each block, enabling tokens to capture more robust spatial dependencies. By predicting multiple tokens in parallel, NBP models significantly reduce the number of generation steps, leading to faster and more efficient inference. Our model achieves FVD scores of 103.3 on UCF101 and 25.5 on K600, outperforming the vanilla NTP model by an average of 4.4. Furthermore, thanks to the reduced number of inference steps, the NBP model generates 8.89 frames (128x128 resolution) per second, achieving an 11x speedup. We also explored model scales ranging from 700M to 3B parameters, observing significant improvements in generation quality, with FVD scores dropping from 103.3 to 55.3 on UCF101 and from 25.5 to 19.5 on K600, demonstrating the scalability of our approach.

The early prediction of battery life (EPBL) is vital for enhancing the efficiency and extending the lifespan of lithium batteries. Traditional models with fixed architectures often encounter underfitting or overfitting issues due to the diverse data distributions in different EPBL tasks. An interpretable deep learning model of flexible parallel neural network (FPNN) is proposed, which includes an InceptionBlock, a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN), a 2D CNN, and a dual-stream network. The proposed model effectively extracts electrochemical features from video-like formatted data using the 3D CNN and achieves advanced multi-scale feature abstraction through the InceptionBlock. The FPNN can adaptively adjust the number of InceptionBlocks to flexibly handle tasks of varying complexity in EPBL. The test on the MIT dataset shows that the FPNN model achieves outstanding predictive accuracy in EPBL tasks, with MAPEs of 2.47%, 1.29%, 1.08%, and 0.88% when the input cyclic data volumes are 10, 20, 30, and 40, respectively. The interpretability of the FPNN is mainly reflected in its flexible unit structure and parameter selection: its diverse branching structure enables the model to capture features at different scales, thus allowing the machine to learn informative features. The approach presented herein provides an accurate, adaptable, and comprehensible solution for early life prediction of lithium batteries, opening new possibilities in the field of battery health monitoring.

This paper presents a speech intelligibility model based on automatic speech recognition (ASR), combining phoneme probabilities from deep neural networks (DNN) and a performance measure that estimates the word error rate from these probabilities. This model does not require the clean speech reference nor the word labels during testing as the ASR decoding step, which finds the most likely sequence of words given phoneme posterior probabilities, is omitted. The model is evaluated via the root-mean-squared error between the predicted and observed speech reception thresholds from eight normal-hearing listeners. The recognition task consists of identifying noisy words from a German matrix sentence test. The speech material was mixed with eight noise maskers covering different modulation types, from speech-shaped stationary noise to a single-talker masker. The prediction performance is compared to five established models and an ASR-model using word labels. Two combinations of features and networks were tested. Both include temporal information either at the feature level (amplitude modulation filterbanks and a feed-forward network) or captured by the architecture (mel-spectrograms and a time-delay deep neural network, TDNN). The TDNN model is on par with the DNN while reducing the number of parameters by a factor of 37; this optimization allows parallel streams on dedicated hearing aid hardware as a forward-pass can be computed within the 10ms of each frame. The proposed model performs almost as well as the label-based model and produces more accurate predictions than the baseline models.

Accurately predicting conversions in advertisements is generally a challenging task, because such conversions do not occur frequently. In this paper, we propose a new framework to support creating high-performing ad creatives, including the accurate prediction of ad creative text conversions before delivering to the consumer. The proposed framework includes three key ideas: multi-task learning, conditional attention, and attention highlighting. Multi-task learning is an idea for improving the prediction accuracy of conversion, which predicts clicks and conversions simultaneously, to solve the difficulty of data imbalance. Furthermore, conditional attention focuses attention of each ad creative with the consideration of its genre and target gender, thus improving conversion prediction accuracy. Attention highlighting visualizes important words and/or phrases based on conditional attention. We evaluated the proposed framework with actual delivery history data (14,000 creatives displayed more than a certain number of times from Gunosy Inc.), and confirmed that these ideas improve the prediction performance of conversions, and visualize noteworthy words according to the creatives' attributes.

The application of superconducting materials is becoming more and more widespread. Traditionally, the discovery of new superconducting materials relies on the experience of experts and a large number of "trial and error" experiments, which not only increases the cost of experiments but also prolongs the period of discovering new superconducting materials. In recent years, machine learning has been increasingly applied to materials science. Based on this, this manuscript proposes the use of XGBoost model to identify superconductors; the first application of deep forest model to predict the critical temperature of superconductors; the first application of deep forest to predict the band gap of materials; and application of a new sub-network model to predict the Fermi energy level of materials. Compared with our known similar literature, all the above algorithms reach state-of-the-art. Finally, this manuscript uses the above models to search the COD public dataset and identify 50 candidate superconducting materials with possible critical temperature greater than 90 K.

Large Language Models (LLMs) stand at the forefront of a number of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Despite the widespread adoption of LLMs in NLP, much of their potential in broader fields remains largely unexplored, and significant limitations persist in their design and implementation. Notably, LLMs struggle with structured data, such as graphs, and often falter when tasked with answering domain-specific questions requiring deep expertise, such as those in biology and chemistry. In this paper, we explore a fundamental question: Can LLMs effectively handle molecule prediction tasks? Rather than pursuing top-tier performance, our goal is to assess how LLMs can contribute to diverse molecule tasks. We identify several classification and regression prediction tasks across six standard molecule datasets. Subsequently, we carefully design a set of prompts to query LLMs on these tasks and compare their performance with existing Machine Learning (ML) models, which include text-based models and those specifically designed for analysing the geometric structure of molecules. Our investigation reveals several key insights: Firstly, LLMs generally lag behind ML models in achieving competitive performance on molecule tasks, particularly when compared to models adept at capturing the geometric structure of molecules, highlighting the constrained ability of LLMs to comprehend graph data. Secondly, LLMs show promise in enhancing the performance of ML models when used collaboratively. Lastly, we engage in a discourse regarding the challenges and promising avenues to harness LLMs for molecule prediction tasks. The code and models are available at https://github.com/zhiqiangzhongddu/LLMaMol.

We show how perceptual embeddings of the visual system can be constructed at inference-time with no training data or deep neural network features. Our perceptual embeddings are solutions to a weighted least squares (WLS) problem, defined at the pixel-level, and solved at inference-time, that can capture global and local image characteristics. The distance in embedding space is used to define a perceptual similarity metric which we call LASI: Linear Autoregressive Similarity Index. Experiments on full-reference image quality assessment datasets show LASI performs competitively with learned deep feature based methods like LPIPS (Zhang et al., 2018) and PIM (Bhardwaj et al., 2020), at a similar computational cost to hand-crafted methods such as MS-SSIM (Wang et al., 2003). We found that increasing the dimensionality of the embedding space consistently reduces the WLS loss while increasing performance on perceptual tasks, at the cost of increasing the computational complexity. LASI is fully differentiable, scales cubically with the number of embedding dimensions, and can be parallelized at the pixel-level. A Maximum Differentiation (MAD) competition (Wang & Simoncelli, 2008) between LASI and LPIPS shows that both methods are capable of finding failure points for the other, suggesting these metrics can be combined.

The mainstream of the existing approaches for video prediction builds up their models based on a Single-In-Single-Out (SISO) architecture, which takes the current frame as input to predict the next frame in a recursive manner. This way often leads to severe performance degradation when they try to extrapolate a longer period of future, thus limiting the practical use of the prediction model. Alternatively, a Multi-In-Multi-Out (MIMO) architecture that outputs all the future frames at one shot naturally breaks the recursive manner and therefore prevents error accumulation. However, only a few MIMO models for video prediction are proposed and they only achieve inferior performance due to the date. The real strength of the MIMO model in this area is not well noticed and is largely under-explored. Motivated by that, we conduct a comprehensive investigation in this paper to thoroughly exploit how far a simple MIMO architecture can go. Surprisingly, our empirical studies reveal that a simple MIMO model can outperform the state-of-the-art work with a large margin much more than expected, especially in dealing with longterm error accumulation. After exploring a number of ways and designs, we propose a new MIMO architecture based on extending the pure Transformer with local spatio-temporal blocks and a new multi-output decoder, namely MIMO-VP, to establish a new standard in video prediction. We evaluate our model in four highly competitive benchmarks (Moving MNIST, Human3.6M, Weather, KITTI). Extensive experiments show that our model wins 1st place on all the benchmarks with remarkable performance gains and surpasses the best SISO model in all aspects including efficiency, quantity, and quality. We believe our model can serve as a new baseline to facilitate the future research of video prediction tasks. The code will be released.

Vision transformers have recently achieved competitive results across various vision tasks but still suffer from heavy computation costs when processing a large number of tokens. Many advanced approaches have been developed to reduce the total number of tokens in large-scale vision transformers, especially for image classification tasks. Typically, they select a small group of essential tokens according to their relevance with the class token, then fine-tune the weights of the vision transformer. Such fine-tuning is less practical for dense prediction due to the much heavier computation and GPU memory cost than image classification. In this paper, we focus on a more challenging problem, i.e., accelerating large-scale vision transformers for dense prediction without any additional re-training or fine-tuning. In response to the fact that high-resolution representations are necessary for dense prediction, we present two non-parametric operators, a token clustering layer to decrease the number of tokens and a token reconstruction layer to increase the number of tokens. The following steps are performed to achieve this: (i) we use the token clustering layer to cluster the neighboring tokens together, resulting in low-resolution representations that maintain the spatial structures; (ii) we apply the following transformer layers only to these low-resolution representations or clustered tokens; and (iii) we use the token reconstruction layer to re-create the high-resolution representations from the refined low-resolution representations. The results obtained by our method are promising on five dense prediction tasks, including object detection, semantic segmentation, panoptic segmentation, instance segmentation, and depth estimation.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, over a period of four years, from January 2015 till December 2019. Based on the NIFTY data during the said period, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the Close value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual Close values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) has become integral to code language models, enabling generation of missing code given both left and right contexts. However, the current FIM training paradigm, which reorders original training sequences and then performs regular next-token prediction (NTP), often leads to models struggling to generate content that aligns smoothly with the surrounding context. Crucially, while existing works rely on rule-based post-processing to circumvent this weakness, such methods are not practically usable in open-domain code completion tasks as they depend on restrictive, dataset-specific assumptions (e.g., generating the same number of lines as in the ground truth). Moreover, model performance on FIM tasks deteriorates significantly without these unrealistic assumptions. We hypothesize that NTP alone is insufficient for models to learn effective planning conditioned on the distant right context, a critical factor for successful code infilling. To overcome this, we propose Horizon-Length Prediction (HLP), a novel training objective that teaches models to predict the number of remaining middle tokens (i.e., horizon length) at each step. HLP advances FIM with lookahead planning, enabling models to inherently learn infilling boundaries for arbitrary left and right contexts without relying on dataset-specific post-processing. Our evaluation across different models and sizes shows that HLP significantly improves FIM performance by up to 24% relatively on diverse benchmarks, across file-level and repository-level, and without resorting to unrealistic post-processing methods. Furthermore, the enhanced planning capability gained through HLP boosts model performance on code reasoning. Importantly, HLP only incurs negligible training overhead and no additional inference cost, ensuring its practicality for real-world scenarios.

Category-Agnostic Pose Estimation (CAPE) localizes keypoints across diverse object categories with a single model, using one or a few annotated support images. Recent works have shown that using a pose graph (i.e., treating keypoints as nodes in a graph rather than isolated points) helps handle occlusions and break symmetry. However, these methods assume a static pose graph with equal-weight edges, leading to suboptimal results. We introduce EdgeCape, a novel framework that overcomes these limitations by predicting the graph's edge weights which optimizes localization. To further leverage structural priors, we propose integrating Markovian Structural Bias, which modulates the self-attention interaction between nodes based on the number of hops between them. We show that this improves the model's ability to capture global spatial dependencies. Evaluated on the MP-100 benchmark, which includes 100 categories and over 20K images, EdgeCape achieves state-of-the-art results in the 1-shot setting and leads among similar-sized methods in the 5-shot setting, significantly improving keypoint localization accuracy. Our code is publicly available.

Scaling up deep learning models has been proven effective to improve intelligence of machine learning (ML) models, especially for industry recommendation models and large language models. The co-design of distributed ML systems and algorithms (to maximize training performance) plays a pivotal role for its success. As it scales, the number of co-design hyper-parameters grows rapidly which brings challenges to feasibly find the optimal setup for system performance maximization. In this paper, we propose CubicML which uses ML to automatically optimize training performance of distributed ML systems. In CubicML, we use a ML model as a proxy to predict the training performance for search efficiency and performance modeling flexibility. We proved that CubicML can effectively optimize training speed of in-house ads recommendation models and large language models at Meta.

Bank credit risk is a significant challenge in modern financial transactions, and the ability to identify qualified credit card holders among a large number of applicants is crucial for the profitability of a bank'sbank's credit card business. In the past, screening applicants'applicants' conditions often required a significant amount of manual labor, which was time-consuming and labor-intensive. Although the accuracy and reliability of previously used ML models have been continuously improving, the pursuit of more reliable and powerful AI intelligent models is undoubtedly the unremitting pursuit by major banks in the financial industry. In this study, we used a dataset of over 40,000 records provided by a commercial bank as the research object. We compared various dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and T-SNE for preprocessing high-dimensional datasets and performed in-depth adaptation and tuning of distributed models such as LightGBM and XGBoost, as well as deep models like Tabnet. After a series of research and processing, we obtained excellent research results by combining SMOTEENN with these techniques. The experiments demonstrated that LightGBM combined with PCA and SMOTEENN techniques can assist banks in accurately predicting potential high-quality customers, showing relatively outstanding performance compared to other models.

Traditional fluorescence staining is phototoxic to live cells, slow, and expensive; thus, the subcellular structure prediction (SSP) from transmitted light (TL) images is emerging as a label-free, faster, low-cost alternative. However, existing approaches utilize 3D networks for one-to-one voxel level dense prediction, which necessitates a frequent and time-consuming Z-axis imaging process. Moreover, 3D convolutions inevitably lead to significant computation and GPU memory overhead. Therefore, we propose an efficient framework, SparseSSP, predicting fluorescent intensities within the target voxel grid in an efficient paradigm instead of relying entirely on 3D topologies. In particular, SparseSSP makes two pivotal improvements to prior works. First, SparseSSP introduces a one-to-many voxel mapping paradigm, which permits the sparse TL slices to reconstruct the subcellular structure. Secondly, we propose a hybrid dimensions topology, which folds the Z-axis information into channel features, enabling the 2D network layers to tackle SSP under low computational cost. We conduct extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness and advantages of SparseSSP on diverse sparse imaging ratios, and our approach achieves a leading performance compared to pure 3D topologies. SparseSSP reduces imaging frequencies compared to previous dense-view SSP (i.e., the number of imaging is reduced up to 87.5% at most), which is significant in visualizing rapid biological dynamics on low-cost devices and samples.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

Although using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as backbones achieves great successes in computer vision, this work investigates a simple backbone network useful for many dense prediction tasks without convolutions. Unlike the recently-proposed Transformer model (e.g., ViT) that is specially designed for image classification, we propose Pyramid Vision Transformer~(PVT), which overcomes the difficulties of porting Transformer to various dense prediction tasks. PVT has several merits compared to prior arts. (1) Different from ViT that typically has low-resolution outputs and high computational and memory cost, PVT can be not only trained on dense partitions of the image to achieve high output resolution, which is important for dense predictions but also using a progressive shrinking pyramid to reduce computations of large feature maps. (2) PVT inherits the advantages from both CNN and Transformer, making it a unified backbone in various vision tasks without convolutions by simply replacing CNN backbones. (3) We validate PVT by conducting extensive experiments, showing that it boosts the performance of many downstream tasks, e.g., object detection, semantic, and instance segmentation. For example, with a comparable number of parameters, RetinaNet+PVT achieves 40.4 AP on the COCO dataset, surpassing RetinNet+ResNet50 (36.3 AP) by 4.1 absolute AP. We hope PVT could serve as an alternative and useful backbone for pixel-level predictions and facilitate future researches. Code is available at https://github.com/whai362/PVT.

In this work, we present a novel physics-based data-driven framework for reduced-order modeling of laser ignition in a model rocket combustor based on parameterized neural ordinary differential equations (PNODE). Deep neural networks are embedded as functions of high-dimensional parameters of laser ignition to predict various terms in a 0D flow model including the heat source function, pre-exponential factors, and activation energy. Using the governing equations of a 0D flow model, our PNODE needs only a limited number of training samples and predicts trajectories of various quantities such as temperature, pressure, and mass fractions of species while satisfying physical constraints. We validate our physics-based PNODE on solution snapshots of high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of laser-induced ignition in a prototype rocket combustor. We compare the performance of our physics-based PNODE with that of kernel ridge regression and fully connected neural networks. Our results show that our physics-based PNODE provides solutions with lower mean absolute errors of average temperature over time, thus improving the prediction of successful laser ignition with high-dimensional parameters.

A Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) was used to perform video frame prediction of microbial growth for a population of two mutants of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The RNN was trained on videos of 20 frames that were acquired using fluorescence microscopy and microfluidics. The network predicted the last 10 frames of each video, and the accuracy's of the predictions was assessed by comparing raw images, population curves, and the number and size of individual colonies. Overall, we found the predictions to be accurate using this approach. The implications this result has on designing autonomous experiments in microbiology, and the steps that can be taken to make the predictions even more accurate, are discussed.

Most knowledge graph completion (KGC) methods learn latent representations of entities and relations of a given graph by mapping them into a vector space. Although the majority of these methods focus on static knowledge graphs, a large number of publicly available KGs contain temporal information stating the time instant/period over which a certain fact has been true. Such graphs are often known as temporal knowledge graphs. Furthermore, knowledge graphs may also contain textual descriptions of entities and relations. Both temporal information and textual descriptions are not taken into account during representation learning by static KGC methods, and only structural information of the graph is leveraged. Recently, some studies have used temporal information to improve link prediction, yet they do not exploit textual descriptions and do not support inductive inference (prediction on entities that have not been seen in training). We propose a novel framework called TEMT that exploits the power of pre-trained language models (PLMs) for text-enhanced temporal knowledge graph completion. The knowledge stored in the parameters of a PLM allows TEMT to produce rich semantic representations of facts and to generalize on previously unseen entities. TEMT leverages textual and temporal information available in a KG, treats them separately, and fuses them to get plausibility scores of facts. Unlike previous approaches, TEMT effectively captures dependencies across different time points and enables predictions on unseen entities. To assess the performance of TEMT, we carried out several experiments including time interval prediction, both in transductive and inductive settings, and triple classification. The experimental results show that TEMT is competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Recently, the community has made tremendous progress in developing effective methods for point cloud video understanding that learn from massive amounts of labeled data. However, annotating point cloud videos is usually notoriously expensive. Moreover, training via one or only a few traditional tasks (e.g., classification) may be insufficient to learn subtle details of the spatio-temporal structure existing in point cloud videos. In this paper, we propose a Masked Spatio-Temporal Structure Prediction (MaST-Pre) method to capture the structure of point cloud videos without human annotations. MaST-Pre is based on spatio-temporal point-tube masking and consists of two self-supervised learning tasks. First, by reconstructing masked point tubes, our method is able to capture the appearance information of point cloud videos. Second, to learn motion, we propose a temporal cardinality difference prediction task that estimates the change in the number of points within a point tube. In this way, MaST-Pre is forced to model the spatial and temporal structure in point cloud videos. Extensive experiments on MSRAction-3D, NTU-RGBD, NvGesture, and SHREC'17 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Quantum reservoir computing is strongly emerging for sequential and time series data prediction in quantum machine learning. We make advancements to the quantum noise-induced reservoir, in which reservoir noise is used as a resource to generate expressive, nonlinear signals that are efficiently learned with a single linear output layer. We address the need for quantum reservoir tuning with a novel and generally applicable approach to quantum circuit parameterization, in which tunable noise models are programmed to the quantum reservoir circuit to be fully controlled for effective optimization. Our systematic approach also involves reductions in quantum reservoir circuits in the number of qubits and entanglement scheme complexity. We show that with only a single noise model and small memory capacities, excellent simulation results were obtained on nonlinear benchmarks that include the Mackey-Glass system for 100 steps ahead in the challenging chaotic regime.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is a neural network compression technique that converts a full-precision model into a quantized model using lower-precision data types. Although it can help reduce the size and computational cost of deep neural networks, it can also introduce quantization noise and reduce prediction accuracy, especially in extremely low-bit settings. How to determine the appropriate quantization parameters (e.g., scaling factors and rounding of weights) is the main problem facing now. Existing methods attempt to determine these parameters by minimize the distance between features before and after quantization, but such an approach only considers local information and may not result in the most optimal quantization parameters. We analyze this issue and ropose PD-Quant, a method that addresses this limitation by considering global information. It determines the quantization parameters by using the information of differences between network prediction before and after quantization. In addition, PD-Quant can alleviate the overfitting problem in PTQ caused by the small number of calibration sets by adjusting the distribution of activations. Experiments show that PD-Quant leads to better quantization parameters and improves the prediction accuracy of quantized models, especially in low-bit settings. For example, PD-Quant pushes the accuracy of ResNet-18 up to 53.14% and RegNetX-600MF up to 40.67% in weight 2-bit activation 2-bit. The code is released at https://github.com/hustvl/PD-Quant.

Learning embedding table plays a fundamental role in Click-through rate(CTR) prediction from the view of the model performance and memory usage. The embedding table is a two-dimensional tensor, with its axes indicating the number of feature values and the embedding dimension, respectively. To learn an efficient and effective embedding table, recent works either assign various embedding dimensions for feature fields and reduce the number of embeddings respectively or mask the embedding table parameters. However, all these existing works cannot get an optimal embedding table. On the one hand, various embedding dimensions still require a large amount of memory due to the vast number of features in the dataset. On the other hand, decreasing the number of embeddings usually suffers from performance degradation, which is intolerable in CTR prediction. Finally, pruning embedding parameters will lead to a sparse embedding table, which is hard to be deployed. To this end, we propose an optimal embedding table learning framework OptEmbed, which provides a practical and general method to find an optimal embedding table for various base CTR models. Specifically, we propose pruning the redundant embeddings regarding corresponding features' importance by learnable pruning thresholds. Furthermore, we consider assigning various embedding dimensions as one single candidate architecture. To efficiently search the optimal embedding dimensions, we design a uniform embedding dimension sampling scheme to equally train all candidate architectures, meaning architecture-related parameters and learnable thresholds are trained simultaneously in one supernet. We then propose an evolution search method based on the supernet to find the optimal embedding dimensions for each field. Experiments on public datasets show that OptEmbed can learn a compact embedding table which can further improve the model performance.

The ability to accurately model the fitness landscape of protein sequences is critical to a wide range of applications, from quantifying the effects of human variants on disease likelihood, to predicting immune-escape mutations in viruses and designing novel biotherapeutic proteins. Deep generative models of protein sequences trained on multiple sequence alignments have been the most successful approaches so far to address these tasks. The performance of these methods is however contingent on the availability of sufficiently deep and diverse alignments for reliable training. Their potential scope is thus limited by the fact many protein families are hard, if not impossible, to align. Large language models trained on massive quantities of non-aligned protein sequences from diverse families address these problems and show potential to eventually bridge the performance gap. We introduce Tranception, a novel transformer architecture leveraging autoregressive predictions and retrieval of homologous sequences at inference to achieve state-of-the-art fitness prediction performance. Given its markedly higher performance on multiple mutants, robustness to shallow alignments and ability to score indels, our approach offers significant gain of scope over existing approaches. To enable more rigorous model testing across a broader range of protein families, we develop ProteinGym -- an extensive set of multiplexed assays of variant effects, substantially increasing both the number and diversity of assays compared to existing benchmarks.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the probability of each output given some input - following the intuition that the trained model tends to behave differently on its training data. We argue that this is a fallacy for many modern deep network architectures. Consequently, MIAs will miserably fail since overconfidence leads to high false-positive rates not only on known domains but also on out-of-distribution data and implicitly acts as a defense against MIAs. Specifically, using generative adversarial networks, we are able to produce a potentially infinite number of samples falsely classified as part of the training data. In other words, the threat of MIAs is overestimated, and less information is leaked than previously assumed. Moreover, there is actually a trade-off between the overconfidence of models and their susceptibility to MIAs: the more classifiers know when they do not know, making low confidence predictions, the more they reveal the training data.

As the academic landscape expands, the challenge of efficiently identifying potentially high-impact articles among the vast number of newly published works becomes critical. This paper introduces a promising approach, leveraging the capabilities of fine-tuned LLMs to predict the future impact of newborn articles solely based on titles and abstracts. Moving beyond traditional methods heavily reliant on external information, the proposed method discerns the shared semantic features of highly impactful papers from a large collection of title-abstract and potential impact pairs. These semantic features are further utilized to regress an improved metric, TNCSI_SP, which has been endowed with value, field, and time normalization properties. Additionally, a comprehensive dataset has been constructed and released for fine-tuning the LLM, containing over 12,000 entries with corresponding titles, abstracts, and TNCSI_SP. The quantitative results, with an NDCG@20 of 0.901, demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting the impact of newborn articles when compared to competitive counterparts. Finally, we demonstrate a real-world application for predicting the impact of newborn journal articles to demonstrate its noteworthy practical value. Overall, our findings challenge existing paradigms and propose a shift towards a more content-focused prediction of academic impact, offering new insights for assessing newborn article impact.

Pretrained contextualized embeddings are powerful word representations for structured prediction tasks. Recent work found that better word representations can be obtained by concatenating different types of embeddings. However, the selection of embeddings to form the best concatenated representation usually varies depending on the task and the collection of candidate embeddings, and the ever-increasing number of embedding types makes it a more difficult problem. In this paper, we propose Automated Concatenation of Embeddings (ACE) to automate the process of finding better concatenations of embeddings for structured prediction tasks, based on a formulation inspired by recent progress on neural architecture search. Specifically, a controller alternately samples a concatenation of embeddings, according to its current belief of the effectiveness of individual embedding types in consideration for a task, and updates the belief based on a reward. We follow strategies in reinforcement learning to optimize the parameters of the controller and compute the reward based on the accuracy of a task model, which is fed with the sampled concatenation as input and trained on a task dataset. Empirical results on 6 tasks and 21 datasets show that our approach outperforms strong baselines and achieves state-of-the-art performance with fine-tuned embeddings in all the evaluations.

Large sky spectroscopic surveys have reached the scale of photometric surveys in terms of sample sizes and data complexity. These huge datasets require efficient, accurate, and flexible automated tools for data analysis and science exploitation. We present the Galaxy Spectra Network/GaSNet-II, a supervised multi-network deep learning tool for spectra classification and redshift prediction. GaSNet-II can be trained to identify a customized number of classes and optimize the redshift predictions for classified objects in each of them. It also provides redshift errors, using a network-of-networks that reproduces a Monte Carlo test on each spectrum, by randomizing their weight initialization. As a demonstration of the capability of the deep learning pipeline, we use 260k Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra from Data Release 16, separated into 13 classes including 140k galactic, and 120k extragalactic objects. GaSNet-II achieves 92.4% average classification accuracy over the 13 classes (larger than 90% for the majority of them), and an average redshift error of approximately 0.23% for galaxies and 2.1% for quasars. We further train/test the same pipeline to classify spectra and predict redshifts for a sample of 200k 4MOST mock spectra and 21k publicly released DESI spectra. On 4MOST mock data, we reach 93.4% accuracy in 10-class classification and an average redshift error of 0.55% for galaxies and 0.3% for active galactic nuclei. On DESI data, we reach 96% accuracy in (star/galaxy/quasar only) classification and an average redshift error of 2.8% for galaxies and 4.8% for quasars, despite the small sample size available. GaSNet-II can process ~40k spectra in less than one minute, on a normal Desktop GPU. This makes the pipeline particularly suitable for real-time analyses of Stage-IV survey observations and an ideal tool for feedback loops aimed at night-by-night survey strategy optimization.

Accurate object detection and prediction are critical to ensure the safety and efficiency of self-driving architectures. Predicting object trajectories and occupancy enables autonomous vehicles to anticipate movements and make decisions with future information, increasing their adaptability and reducing the risk of accidents. Current State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) approaches often isolate the detection, tracking, and prediction stages, which can lead to significant prediction errors due to accumulated inaccuracies between stages. Recent advances have improved the feature representation of multi-camera perception systems through Bird's-Eye View (BEV) transformations, boosting the development of end-to-end systems capable of predicting environmental elements directly from vehicle sensor data. These systems, however, often suffer from high processing times and number of parameters, creating challenges for real-world deployment. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel BEV instance prediction architecture based on a simplified paradigm that relies only on instance segmentation and flow prediction. The proposed system prioritizes speed, aiming at reduced parameter counts and inference times compared to existing SOTA architectures, thanks to the incorporation of an efficient transformer-based architecture. Furthermore, the implementation of the proposed architecture is optimized for performance improvements in PyTorch version 2.1. Code and trained models are available at https://github.com/miguelag99/Efficient-Instance-Prediction

As the development of cities, traffic congestion becomes an increasingly pressing issue, and traffic prediction is a classic method to relieve that issue. Traffic prediction is one specific application of spatio-temporal prediction learning, like taxi scheduling, weather prediction, and ship trajectory prediction. Against these problems, classical spatio-temporal prediction learning methods including deep learning, require large amounts of training data. In reality, some newly developed cities with insufficient sensors would not hold that assumption, and the data scarcity makes predictive performance worse. In such situation, the learning method on insufficient data is known as few-shot learning (FSL), and the FSL of traffic prediction remains challenges. On the one hand, graph structures' irregularity and dynamic nature of graphs cannot hold the performance of spatio-temporal learning method. On the other hand, conventional domain adaptation methods cannot work well on insufficient training data, when transferring knowledge from different domains to the intended target domain.To address these challenges, we propose a novel spatio-temporal domain adaptation (STDA) method that learns transferable spatio-temporal meta-knowledge from data-sufficient cities in an adversarial manner. This learned meta-knowledge can improve the prediction performance of data-scarce cities. Specifically, we train the STDA model using a Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) based episode learning process, which is a model-agnostic meta-learning framework that enables the model to solve new learning tasks using only a small number of training samples. We conduct numerous experiments on four traffic prediction datasets, and our results show that the prediction performance of our model has improved by 7\% compared to baseline models on the two metrics of MAE and RMSE.

Rich user behavior data has been proven to be of great value for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction applications, especially in industrial recommender, search, or advertising systems. However, it's non-trivial for real-world systems to make full use of long-term user behaviors due to the strict requirements of online serving time. Most previous works adopt the retrieval-based strategy, where a small number of user behaviors are retrieved first for subsequent attention. However, the retrieval-based methods are sub-optimal and would cause more or less information losses, and it's difficult to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of the retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we propose SDIM (Sampling-based Deep Interest Modeling), a simple yet effective sampling-based end-to-end approach for modeling long-term user behaviors. We sample from multiple hash functions to generate hash signatures of the candidate item and each item in the user behavior sequence, and obtain the user interest by directly gathering behavior items associated with the candidate item with the same hash signature. We show theoretically and experimentally that the proposed method performs on par with standard attention-based models on modeling long-term user behaviors, while being sizable times faster. We also introduce the deployment of SDIM in our system. Specifically, we decouple the behavior sequence hashing, which is the most time-consuming part, from the CTR model by designing a separate module named BSE (behavior Sequence Encoding). BSE is latency-free for the CTR server, enabling us to model extremely long user behaviors. Both offline and online experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of SDIM. SDIM now has been deployed online in the search system of Meituan APP.

Click-Through Rate prediction is an important task in recommender systems, which aims to estimate the probability of a user to click on a given item. Recently, many deep models have been proposed to learn low-order and high-order feature interactions from original features. However, since useful interactions are always sparse, it is difficult for DNN to learn them effectively under a large number of parameters. In real scenarios, artificial features are able to improve the performance of deep models (such as Wide & Deep Learning), but feature engineering is expensive and requires domain knowledge, making it impractical in different scenarios. Therefore, it is necessary to augment feature space automatically. In this paper, We propose a novel Feature Generation by Convolutional Neural Network (FGCNN) model with two components: Feature Generation and Deep Classifier. Feature Generation leverages the strength of CNN to generate local patterns and recombine them to generate new features. Deep Classifier adopts the structure of IPNN to learn interactions from the augmented feature space. Experimental results on three large-scale datasets show that FGCNN significantly outperforms nine state-of-the-art models. Moreover, when applying some state-of-the-art models as Deep Classifier, better performance is always achieved, showing the great compatibility of our FGCNN model. This work explores a novel direction for CTR predictions: it is quite useful to reduce the learning difficulties of DNN by automatically identifying important features.

In semantic segmentation, generalizing a visual system to both seen categories and novel categories at inference time has always been practically valuable yet challenging. To enable such functionality, existing methods mainly rely on either providing several support demonstrations from the visual aspect or characterizing the informative clues from the textual aspect (e.g., the class names). Nevertheless, both two lines neglect the complementary intrinsic of low-level visual and high-level language information, while the explorations that consider visual and textual modalities as a whole to promote predictions are still limited. To close this gap, we propose to encompass textual and visual clues as multi-modal prototypes to allow more comprehensive support for open-world semantic segmentation, and build a novel prototype-based segmentation framework to realize this promise. To be specific, unlike the straightforward combination of bi-modal clues, we decompose the high-level language information as multi-aspect prototypes and aggregate the low-level visual information as more semantic prototypes, on basis of which, a fine-grained complementary fusion makes the multi-modal prototypes more powerful and accurate to promote the prediction. Based on an elastic mask prediction module that permits any number and form of prototype inputs, we are able to solve the zero-shot, few-shot and generalized counterpart tasks in one architecture. Extensive experiments on both PASCAL-5^i and COCO-20^i datasets show the consistent superiority of the proposed method compared with the previous state-of-the-art approaches, and a range of ablation studies thoroughly dissects each component in our framework both quantitatively and qualitatively that verify their effectiveness.

Floor labels of crowdsourced RF signals are crucial for many smart-city applications, such as multi-floor indoor localization, geofencing, and robot surveillance. To build a prediction model to identify the floor number of a new RF signal upon its measurement, conventional approaches using the crowdsourced RF signals assume that at least few labeled signal samples are available on each floor. In this work, we push the envelope further and demonstrate that it is technically feasible to enable such floor identification with only one floor-labeled signal sample on the bottom floor while having the rest of signal samples unlabeled. We propose FIS-ONE, a novel floor identification system with only one labeled sample. FIS-ONE consists of two steps, namely signal clustering and cluster indexing. We first build a bipartite graph to model the RF signal samples and obtain a latent representation of each node (each signal sample) using our attention-based graph neural network model so that the RF signal samples can be clustered more accurately. Then, we tackle the problem of indexing the clusters with proper floor labels, by leveraging the observation that signals from an access point can be detected on different floors, i.e., signal spillover. Specifically, we formulate a cluster indexing problem as a combinatorial optimization problem and show that it is equivalent to solving a traveling salesman problem, whose (near-)optimal solution can be found efficiently. We have implemented FIS-ONE and validated its effectiveness on the Microsoft dataset and in three large shopping malls. Our results show that FIS-ONE outperforms other baseline algorithms significantly, with up to 23% improvement in adjusted rand index and 25% improvement in normalized mutual information using only one floor-labeled signal sample.

Few-shot models aim at making predictions using a minimal number of labeled examples from a given task. The main challenge in this area is the one-shot setting where only one element represents each class. We propose HyperShot - the fusion of kernels and hypernetwork paradigm. Compared to reference approaches that apply a gradient-based adjustment of the parameters, our model aims to switch the classification module parameters depending on the task's embedding. In practice, we utilize a hypernetwork, which takes the aggregated information from support data and returns the classifier's parameters handcrafted for the considered problem. Moreover, we introduce the kernel-based representation of the support examples delivered to hypernetwork to create the parameters of the classification module. Consequently, we rely on relations between embeddings of the support examples instead of direct feature values provided by the backbone models. Thanks to this approach, our model can adapt to highly different tasks.

Implicit layer deep learning techniques, like Neural Differential Equations, have become an important modeling framework due to their ability to adapt to new problems automatically. Training a neural differential equation is effectively a search over a space of plausible dynamical systems. However, controlling the computational cost for these models is difficult since it relies on the number of steps the adaptive solver takes. Most prior works have used higher-order methods to reduce prediction timings while greatly increasing training time or reducing both training and prediction timings by relying on specific training algorithms, which are harder to use as a drop-in replacement due to strict requirements on automatic differentiation. In this manuscript, we use internal cost heuristics of adaptive differential equation solvers at stochastic time points to guide the training toward learning a dynamical system that is easier to integrate. We "close the black-box" and allow the use of our method with any adjoint technique for gradient calculations of the differential equation solution. We perform experimental studies to compare our method to global regularization to show that we attain similar performance numbers without compromising the flexibility of implementation on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We develop two sampling strategies to trade off between performance and training time. Our method reduces the number of function evaluations to 0.556-0.733x and accelerates predictions by 1.3-2x.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have been shown effective for zero-shot (0shot) text classification. 0shot models based on natural language inference (NLI) and next sentence prediction (NSP) employ cross-encoder architecture and infer by making a forward pass through the model for each label-text pair separately. This increases the computational cost to make inferences linearly in the number of labels. In this work, we improve the efficiency of such cross-encoder-based 0shot models by restricting the number of likely labels using another fast base classifier-based conformal predictor (CP) calibrated on samples labeled by the 0shot model. Since a CP generates prediction sets with coverage guarantees, it reduces the number of target labels without excluding the most probable label based on the 0shot model. We experiment with three intent and two topic classification datasets. With a suitable CP for each dataset, we reduce the average inference time for NLI- and NSP-based models by 25.6% and 22.2% respectively, without dropping performance below the predefined error rate of 1%.

The primary way of building AI applications is shifting from training specialist models to prompting generalist models. A common practice for prompting generalist models, often referred to as in-context learning, is to append a few examples (demonstrations) to the prompt to help the model better understand the task. While effective, in-context learning can be inefficient because it makes the input prompt much longer, consuming valuable space in the context window and leading to larger computational costs. In this paper, we propose DynaICL, a recipe for efficient prompting with black-box generalist models that dynamically allocate in-context examples according to the input complexity and the computational budget. To achieve this, we train a meta controller that predicts the number of in-context examples suitable for the generalist model to make a good prediction based on the performance-efficiency trade-off for a specific input. We then dynamically allocate the number of demonstrations for an input according to predictions from the meta controller and the given computation budget. Experimental results show that dynamic example allocation helps achieve a better performance-efficiency trade-off in two practical settings where computational resources or the required performance is constrained. Specifically, DynaICL saves up to 46% token budget compared to the common practice that allocates the same number of in-context examples to each input. We also find that a meta controller trained on a certain backbone model and tasks can successfully generalize to unseen models and tasks.

Deep learning techniques are increasingly applied to scientific problems, where the precision of networks is crucial. Despite being deemed as universal function approximators, neural networks, in practice, struggle to reduce the prediction errors below O(10^{-5}) even with large network size and extended training iterations. To address this issue, we developed the multi-stage neural networks that divides the training process into different stages, with each stage using a new network that is optimized to fit the residue from the previous stage. Across successive stages, the residue magnitudes decreases substantially and follows an inverse power-law relationship with the residue frequencies. The multi-stage neural networks effectively mitigate the spectral biases associated with regular neural networks, enabling them to capture the high frequency feature of target functions. We demonstrate that the prediction error from the multi-stage training for both regression problems and physics-informed neural networks can nearly reach the machine-precision O(10^{-16}) of double-floating point within a finite number of iterations. Such levels of accuracy are rarely attainable using single neural networks alone.

We consider online learning problems in the realizable setting, where there is a zero-loss solution, and propose new Differentially Private (DP) algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret bounds. For the problem of online prediction from experts, we design new algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret {O} big( varepsilon^{-1} log^{1.5}{d} big) where d is the number of experts. This significantly improves over the best existing regret bounds for the DP non-realizable setting which are {O} big( varepsilon^{-1} minbig{d, T^{1/3}log dbig} big). We also develop an adaptive algorithm for the small-loss setting with regret O(L^starlog d + varepsilon^{-1} log^{1.5}{d}) where L^star is the total loss of the best expert. Additionally, we consider DP online convex optimization in the realizable setting and propose an algorithm with near-optimal regret O big(varepsilon^{-1} d^{1.5} big), as well as an algorithm for the smooth case with regret O big( varepsilon^{-2/3} (dT)^{1/3} big), both significantly improving over existing bounds in the non-realizable regime.

In standard neural networks the amount of computation used grows with the size of the inputs, but not with the complexity of the problem being learnt. To overcome this limitation we introduce PonderNet, a new algorithm that learns to adapt the amount of computation based on the complexity of the problem at hand. PonderNet learns end-to-end the number of computational steps to achieve an effective compromise between training prediction accuracy, computational cost and generalization. On a complex synthetic problem, PonderNet dramatically improves performance over previous adaptive computation methods and additionally succeeds at extrapolation tests where traditional neural networks fail. Also, our method matched the current state of the art results on a real world question and answering dataset, but using less compute. Finally, PonderNet reached state of the art results on a complex task designed to test the reasoning capabilities of neural networks.1

Differentiable neural architecture search methods became popular in recent years, mainly due to their low search costs and flexibility in designing the search space. However, these methods suffer the difficulty in optimizing network, so that the searched network is often unfriendly to hardware. This paper deals with this problem by adding a differentiable latency loss term into optimization, so that the search process can tradeoff between accuracy and latency with a balancing coefficient. The core of latency prediction is to encode each network architecture and feed it into a multi-layer regressor, with the training data which can be easily collected from randomly sampling a number of architectures and evaluating them on the hardware. We evaluate our approach on NVIDIA Tesla-P100 GPUs. With 100K sampled architectures (requiring a few hours), the latency prediction module arrives at a relative error of lower than 10%. Equipped with this module, the search method can reduce the latency by 20% meanwhile preserving the accuracy. Our approach also enjoys the ability of being transplanted to a wide range of hardware platforms with very few efforts, or being used to optimizing other non-differentiable factors such as power consumption.

Protein language models are a powerful tool for learning protein representations through pre-training on vast protein sequence datasets. However, traditional protein language models lack explicit structural supervision, despite its relevance to protein function. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of remote homology detection to distill structural information into protein language models without requiring explicit protein structures as input. We evaluate the impact of this structure-informed training on downstream protein function prediction tasks. Experimental results reveal consistent improvements in function annotation accuracy for EC number and GO term prediction. Performance on mutant datasets, however, varies based on the relationship between targeted properties and protein structures. This underscores the importance of considering this relationship when applying structure-aware training to protein function prediction tasks. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/esm-s.

Correctness of instance segmentation constitutes counting the number of objects, correctly localizing all predictions and classifying each localized prediction. Average Precision is the de-facto metric used to measure all these constituents of segmentation. However, this metric does not penalize duplicate predictions in the high-recall range, and cannot distinguish instances that are localized correctly but categorized incorrectly. This weakness has inadvertently led to network designs that achieve significant gains in AP but also introduce a large number of false positives. We therefore cannot rely on AP to choose a model that provides an optimal tradeoff between false positives and high recall. To resolve this dilemma, we review alternative metrics in the literature and propose two new measures to explicitly measure the amount of both spatial and categorical duplicate predictions. We also propose a Semantic Sorting and NMS module to remove these duplicates based on a pixel occupancy matching scheme. Experiments show that modern segmentation networks have significant gains in AP, but also contain a considerable amount of duplicates. Our Semantic Sorting and NMS can be added as a plug-and-play module to mitigate hedged predictions and preserve AP.

Existing open-domain dialog models are generally trained to minimize the perplexity of target human responses. However, some human replies are more engaging than others, spawning more followup interactions. Current conversational models are increasingly capable of producing turns that are context-relevant, but in order to produce compelling agents, these models need to be able to predict and optimize for turns that are genuinely engaging. We leverage social media feedback data (number of replies and upvotes) to build a large-scale training dataset for feedback prediction. To alleviate possible distortion between the feedback and engagingness, we convert the ranking problem to a comparison of response pairs which involve few confounding factors. We trained DialogRPT, a set of GPT-2 based models on 133M pairs of human feedback data and the resulting ranker outperformed several baselines. Particularly, our ranker outperforms the conventional dialog perplexity baseline with a large margin on predicting Reddit feedback. We finally combine the feedback prediction models and a human-like scoring model to rank the machine-generated dialog responses. Crowd-sourced human evaluation shows that our ranking method correlates better with real human preferences than baseline models.

We present a foundation model for zero-shot metric monocular depth estimation. Our model, Depth Pro, synthesizes high-resolution depth maps with unparalleled sharpness and high-frequency details. The predictions are metric, with absolute scale, without relying on the availability of metadata such as camera intrinsics. And the model is fast, producing a 2.25-megapixel depth map in 0.3 seconds on a standard GPU. These characteristics are enabled by a number of technical contributions, including an efficient multi-scale vision transformer for dense prediction, a training protocol that combines real and synthetic datasets to achieve high metric accuracy alongside fine boundary tracing, dedicated evaluation metrics for boundary accuracy in estimated depth maps, and state-of-the-art focal length estimation from a single image. Extensive experiments analyze specific design choices and demonstrate that Depth Pro outperforms prior work along multiple dimensions. We release code and weights at https://github.com/apple/ml-depth-pro

Machine learning models often excel on in-distribution (ID) data but struggle with unseen out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Most techniques for improving OOD robustness are not applicable to settings where the model is effectively a black box, such as when the weights are frozen, retraining is costly, or the model is leveraged via an API. Test-time augmentation (TTA) is a simple post-hoc technique for improving robustness that sidesteps black-box constraints by aggregating predictions across multiple augmentations of the test input. TTA has seen limited use in NLP due to the challenge of generating effective natural language augmentations. In this work, we propose LLM-TTA, which uses LLM-generated augmentations as TTA's augmentation function. LLM-TTA outperforms conventional augmentation functions across sentiment, toxicity, and news classification tasks for BERT and T5 models, with BERT's OOD robustness improving by an average of 4.30 percentage points without regressing average ID performance. We explore selectively augmenting inputs based on prediction entropy to reduce the rate of expensive LLM augmentations, allowing us to maintain performance gains while reducing the average number of generated augmentations by 57.76%. LLM-TTA is agnostic to the task model architecture, does not require OOD labels, and is effective across low and high-resource settings. We share our data, models, and code for reproducibility.

This paper introduces a structured memory which can be easily integrated into a neural network. The memory is very large by design and significantly increases the capacity of the architecture, by up to a billion parameters with a negligible computational overhead. Its design and access pattern is based on product keys, which enable fast and exact nearest neighbor search. The ability to increase the number of parameters while keeping the same computational budget lets the overall system strike a better trade-off between prediction accuracy and computation efficiency both at training and test time. This memory layer allows us to tackle very large scale language modeling tasks. In our experiments we consider a dataset with up to 30 billion words, and we plug our memory layer in a state-of-the-art transformer-based architecture. In particular, we found that a memory augmented model with only 12 layers outperforms a baseline transformer model with 24 layers, while being twice faster at inference time. We release our code for reproducibility purposes.

Image tokenization has enabled major advances in autoregressive image generation by providing compressed, discrete representations that are more efficient to process than raw pixels. While traditional approaches use 2D grid tokenization, recent methods like TiTok have shown that 1D tokenization can achieve high generation quality by eliminating grid redundancies. However, these methods typically use a fixed number of tokens and thus cannot adapt to an image's inherent complexity. We introduce FlexTok, a tokenizer that projects 2D images into variable-length, ordered 1D token sequences. For example, a 256x256 image can be resampled into anywhere from 1 to 256 discrete tokens, hierarchically and semantically compressing its information. By training a rectified flow model as the decoder and using nested dropout, FlexTok produces plausible reconstructions regardless of the chosen token sequence length. We evaluate our approach in an autoregressive generation setting using a simple GPT-style Transformer. On ImageNet, this approach achieves an FID<2 across 8 to 128 tokens, outperforming TiTok and matching state-of-the-art methods with far fewer tokens. We further extend the model to support to text-conditioned image generation and examine how FlexTok relates to traditional 2D tokenization. A key finding is that FlexTok enables next-token prediction to describe images in a coarse-to-fine "visual vocabulary", and that the number of tokens to generate depends on the complexity of the generation task.

Latent variable generative models have emerged as powerful tools for generative tasks including image and video synthesis. These models are enabled by pretrained autoencoders that map high resolution data into a compressed lower dimensional latent space, where the generative models can subsequently be developed while requiring fewer computational resources. Despite their effectiveness, the direct application of latent variable models to higher dimensional domains such as videos continues to pose challenges for efficient training and inference. In this paper, we propose an autoencoder that projects volumetric data onto a four-plane factorized latent space that grows sublinearly with the input size, making it ideal for higher dimensional data like videos. The design of our factorized model supports straightforward adoption in a number of conditional generation tasks with latent diffusion models (LDMs), such as class-conditional generation, frame prediction, and video interpolation. Our results show that the proposed four-plane latent space retains a rich representation needed for high-fidelity reconstructions despite the heavy compression, while simultaneously enabling LDMs to operate with significant improvements in speed and memory.

Parameter Efficient Tuning (PET) has gained attention for reducing the number of parameters while maintaining performance and providing better hardware resource savings, but few studies investigate dense prediction tasks and interaction between modalities. In this paper, we do an investigation of efficient tuning problems on referring image segmentation. We propose a novel adapter called Bridger to facilitate cross-modal information exchange and inject task-specific information into the pre-trained model. We also design a lightweight decoder for image segmentation. Our approach achieves comparable or superior performance with only 1.61\% to 3.38\% backbone parameter updates, evaluated on challenging benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/kkakkkka/ETRIS.

This paper aims to develop a novel cost-effective framework for face identification, which progressively maintains a batch of classifiers with the increasing face images of different individuals. By naturally combining two recently rising techniques: active learning (AL) and self-paced learning (SPL), our framework is capable of automatically annotating new instances and incorporating them into training under weak expert re-certification. We first initialize the classifier using a few annotated samples for each individual, and extract image features using the convolutional neural nets. Then, a number of candidates are selected from the unannotated samples for classifier updating, in which we apply the current classifiers ranking the samples by the prediction confidence. In particular, our approach utilizes the high-confidence and low-confidence samples in the self-paced and the active user-query way, respectively. The neural nets are later fine-tuned based on the updated classifiers. Such heuristic implementation is formulated as solving a concise active SPL optimization problem, which also advances the SPL development by supplementing a rational dynamic curriculum constraint. The new model finely accords with the "instructor-student-collaborative" learning mode in human education. The advantages of this proposed framework are two-folds: i) The required number of annotated samples is significantly decreased while the comparable performance is guaranteed. A dramatic reduction of user effort is also achieved over other state-of-the-art active learning techniques. ii) The mixture of SPL and AL effectively improves not only the classifier accuracy compared to existing AL/SPL methods but also the robustness against noisy data. We evaluate our framework on two challenging datasets, and demonstrate very promising results. (http://hcp.sysu.edu.cn/projects/aspl/)

Compact convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have witnessed exceptional improvements in performance in recent years. However, they still fail to provide the same predictive power as CNNs with a large number of parameters. The diverse and even abundant features captured by the layers is an important characteristic of these successful CNNs. However, differences in this characteristic between large CNNs and their compact counterparts have rarely been investigated. In compact CNNs, due to the limited number of parameters, abundant features are unlikely to be obtained, and feature diversity becomes an essential characteristic. Diverse features present in the activation maps derived from a data point during model inference may indicate the presence of a set of unique descriptors necessary to distinguish between objects of different classes. In contrast, data points with low feature diversity may not provide a sufficient amount of unique descriptors to make a valid prediction; we refer to them as random predictions. Random predictions can negatively impact the optimization process and harm the final performance. This paper proposes addressing the problem raised by random predictions by reshaping the standard cross-entropy to make it biased toward data points with a limited number of unique descriptive features. Our novel Bias Loss focuses the training on a set of valuable data points and prevents the vast number of samples with poor learning features from misleading the optimization process. Furthermore, to show the importance of diversity, we present a family of SkipNet models whose architectures are brought to boost the number of unique descriptors in the last layers. Our Skipnet-M can achieve 1% higher classification accuracy than MobileNetV3 Large.

As machine learning algorithms are increasingly applied to high impact yet high risk tasks, such as medical diagnosis or autonomous driving, it is critical that researchers can explain how such algorithms arrived at their predictions. In recent years, a number of image saliency methods have been developed to summarize where highly complex neural networks "look" in an image for evidence for their predictions. However, these techniques are limited by their heuristic nature and architectural constraints. In this paper, we make two main contributions: First, we propose a general framework for learning different kinds of explanations for any black box algorithm. Second, we specialise the framework to find the part of an image most responsible for a classifier decision. Unlike previous works, our method is model-agnostic and testable because it is grounded in explicit and interpretable image perturbations.

A very simple way to improve the performance of almost any machine learning algorithm is to train many different models on the same data and then to average their predictions. Unfortunately, making predictions using a whole ensemble of models is cumbersome and may be too computationally expensive to allow deployment to a large number of users, especially if the individual models are large neural nets. Caruana and his collaborators have shown that it is possible to compress the knowledge in an ensemble into a single model which is much easier to deploy and we develop this approach further using a different compression technique. We achieve some surprising results on MNIST and we show that we can significantly improve the acoustic model of a heavily used commercial system by distilling the knowledge in an ensemble of models into a single model. We also introduce a new type of ensemble composed of one or more full models and many specialist models which learn to distinguish fine-grained classes that the full models confuse. Unlike a mixture of experts, these specialist models can be trained rapidly and in parallel.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering datasets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue into the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the nonlinear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira-Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. The suite covers the standard six cosmological parameters {omega_m,omega_b, sigma_8, h, n_s, w_0} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state, {omega_{nu}, w_a}. In this paper we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1Gpc)^3 volume and evolving 3200^3 particles. An additional set of 1776 lower-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly nonlinear regimes. The emulator provides predictions at the two to three percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

In this paper we introduce a new natural language processing dataset and benchmark for predicting prosodic prominence from written text. To our knowledge this will be the largest publicly available dataset with prosodic labels. We describe the dataset construction and the resulting benchmark dataset in detail and train a number of different models ranging from feature-based classifiers to neural network systems for the prediction of discretized prosodic prominence. We show that pre-trained contextualized word representations from BERT outperform the other models even with less than 10% of the training data. Finally we discuss the dataset in light of the results and point to future research and plans for further improving both the dataset and methods of predicting prosodic prominence from text. The dataset and the code for the models are publicly available.

We introduce the variational graph auto-encoder (VGAE), a framework for unsupervised learning on graph-structured data based on the variational auto-encoder (VAE). This model makes use of latent variables and is capable of learning interpretable latent representations for undirected graphs. We demonstrate this model using a graph convolutional network (GCN) encoder and a simple inner product decoder. Our model achieves competitive results on a link prediction task in citation networks. In contrast to most existing models for unsupervised learning on graph-structured data and link prediction, our model can naturally incorporate node features, which significantly improves predictive performance on a number of benchmark datasets.

Estimating the geographical range of a species from sparse observations is a challenging and important geospatial prediction problem. Given a set of locations where a species has been observed, the goal is to build a model to predict whether the species is present or absent at any location. This problem has a long history in ecology, but traditional methods struggle to take advantage of emerging large-scale crowdsourced datasets which can include tens of millions of records for hundreds of thousands of species. In this work, we use Spatial Implicit Neural Representations (SINRs) to jointly estimate the geographical range of 47k species simultaneously. We find that our approach scales gracefully, making increasingly better predictions as we increase the number of species and the amount of data per species when training. To make this problem accessible to machine learning researchers, we provide four new benchmarks that measure different aspects of species range estimation and spatial representation learning. Using these benchmarks, we demonstrate that noisy and biased crowdsourced data can be combined with implicit neural representations to approximate expert-developed range maps for many species.

During early optimization passes, compilers must make predictions for machine-dependent characteristics such as execution unit utilization, number of register spills, latency, throughput etc. to generate better code. Often a hand-written static/analytical hardware cost model is built into the compiler. However, the need for more sophisticated and varied predictions has become more pronounced with the development of deep learning compilers which need to optimize dataflow graphs. Such compilers usually employ a much higher level MLIR form as an IR representation before lowering to traditional LLVM-IR. A static/analytical cost model in such a scenario is cumbersome and error prone as the opcodes represent very high level algebraic/arithmetic operations. Hence, we develop a machine learning-based cost model for high-level MLIR which can predict different target variables of interest such as CPU/GPU/xPU utilization, instructions executed, register usage etc. By considering the incoming MLIR as a text input a la NLP models we can apply well-known techniques from modern NLP research to help predict hardware characteristics more accurately. We expect such precise ML-driven hardware cost models to guide our deep learning compiler in graph level optimizations around operator fusion, local memory allocation, kernel scheduling etc. as well as in many kernel-level optimizations such as loop interchange, LICM and unroll. We report early work-in -progress results of developing such models on high-level MLIR representing dataflow graphs emitted by Pytorch/Tensorflow-like frameworks as well as lower-level dialects like affine. We show that these models can provide reasonably good estimates with low error bounds for various hardware characteristics of interest and can be a go-to mechanism for hardware cost modelling in the future.

We present WeakSTIL, an interpretable two-stage weak label deep learning pipeline for scoring the percentage of stromal tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (sTIL%) in H&E-stained whole-slide images (WSIs) of breast cancer tissue. The sTIL% score is a prognostic and predictive biomarker for many solid tumor types. However, due to the high labeling efforts and high intra- and interobserver variability within and between expert annotators, this biomarker is currently not used in routine clinical decision making. WeakSTIL compresses tiles of a WSI using a feature extractor pre-trained with self-supervised learning on unlabeled histopathology data and learns to predict precise sTIL% scores for each tile in the tumor bed by using a multiple instance learning regressor that only requires a weak WSI-level label. By requiring only a weak label, we overcome the large annotation efforts required to train currently existing TIL detection methods. We show that WeakSTIL is at least as good as other TIL detection methods when predicting the WSI-level sTIL% score, reaching a coefficient of determination of 0.45pm0.15 when compared to scores generated by an expert pathologist, and an AUC of 0.89pm0.05 when treating it as the clinically interesting sTIL-high vs sTIL-low classification task. Additionally, we show that the intermediate tile-level predictions of WeakSTIL are highly interpretable, which suggests that WeakSTIL pays attention to latent features related to the number of TILs and the tissue type. In the future, WeakSTIL may be used to provide consistent and interpretable sTIL% predictions to stratify breast cancer patients into targeted therapy arms.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease, which has no cure. Knee OA (KOA) is one of the highest causes of disability worldwide, and it costs billions of United States dollars to the global community. Prediction of KOA progression has been of high interest to the community for years, as it can advance treatment development through more efficient clinical trials and improve patient outcomes through more efficient healthcare utilization. Existing approaches for predicting KOA, however, are predominantly static, i.e. consider data from a single time point to predict progression many years into the future, and knee level, i.e. consider progression in a single joint only. Due to these and related reasons, these methods fail to deliver the level of predictive performance, which is sufficient to result in cost savings and better patient outcomes. Collecting extensive data from all patients on a regular basis could address the issue, but it is limited by the high cost at a population level. In this work, we propose to go beyond static prediction models in OA, and bring a novel Active Sensing (AS) approach, designed to dynamically follow up patients with the objective of maximizing the number of informative data acquisitions, while minimizing their total cost over a period of time. Our approach is based on Reinforcement Learning (RL), and it leverages a novel reward function designed specifically for AS of disease progression in more than one part of a human body. Our method is end-to-end, relies on multi-modal Deep Learning, and requires no human input at inference time. Throughout an exhaustive experimental evaluation, we show that using RL can provide a higher monetary benefit when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

We propose a novel framework for interactive class-agnostic object counting, where a human user can interactively provide feedback to improve the accuracy of a counter. Our framework consists of two main components: a user-friendly visualizer to gather feedback and an efficient mechanism to incorporate it. In each iteration, we produce a density map to show the current prediction result, and we segment it into non-overlapping regions with an easily verifiable number of objects. The user can provide feedback by selecting a region with obvious counting errors and specifying the range for the estimated number of objects within it. To improve the counting result, we develop a novel adaptation loss to force the visual counter to output the predicted count within the user-specified range. For effective and efficient adaptation, we propose a refinement module that can be used with any density-based visual counter, and only the parameters in the refinement module will be updated during adaptation. Our experiments on two challenging class-agnostic object counting benchmarks, FSCD-LVIS and FSC-147, show that our method can reduce the mean absolute error of multiple state-of-the-art visual counters by roughly 30% to 40% with minimal user input. Our project can be found at https://yifehuang97.github.io/ICACountProjectPage/.

Learning-based optical flow estimation has been dominated with the pipeline of cost volume with convolutions for flow regression, which is inherently limited to local correlations and thus is hard to address the long-standing challenge of large displacements. To alleviate this, the state-of-the-art framework RAFT gradually improves its prediction quality by using a large number of iterative refinements, achieving remarkable performance but introducing linearly increasing inference time. To enable both high accuracy and efficiency, we completely revamp the dominant flow regression pipeline by reformulating optical flow as a global matching problem, which identifies the correspondences by directly comparing feature similarities. Specifically, we propose a GMFlow framework, which consists of three main components: a customized Transformer for feature enhancement, a correlation and softmax layer for global feature matching, and a self-attention layer for flow propagation. We further introduce a refinement step that reuses GMFlow at higher feature resolution for residual flow prediction. Our new framework outperforms 31-refinements RAFT on the challenging Sintel benchmark, while using only one refinement and running faster, suggesting a new paradigm for accurate and efficient optical flow estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/haofeixu/gmflow.

Combining different models is a widely used paradigm in machine learning applications. While the most common approach is to form an ensemble of models and average their individual predictions, this approach is often rendered infeasible by given resource constraints in terms of memory and computation, which grow linearly with the number of models. We present a layer-wise model fusion algorithm for neural networks that utilizes optimal transport to (soft-) align neurons across the models before averaging their associated parameters. We show that this can successfully yield "one-shot" knowledge transfer (i.e, without requiring any retraining) between neural networks trained on heterogeneous non-i.i.d. data. In both i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings , we illustrate that our approach significantly outperforms vanilla averaging, as well as how it can serve as an efficient replacement for the ensemble with moderate fine-tuning, for standard convolutional networks (like VGG11), residual networks (like ResNet18), and multi-layer perceptrons on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and MNIST. Finally, our approach also provides a principled way to combine the parameters of neural networks with different widths, and we explore its application for model compression. The code is available at the following link, https://github.com/sidak/otfusion.

Multilingual Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) models have extended the usability of speech technologies to a wide variety of languages. With how many languages these models have to handle, however, a key to understanding their imbalanced performance across different languages is to examine if the model actually knows which language it should transcribe. In this paper, we introduce our work on improving performance on FLEURS, a 102-language open ASR benchmark, by conditioning the entire model on language identity (LID). We investigate techniques inspired from recent Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) studies to help the model handle the large number of languages, conditioning on the LID predictions of auxiliary tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique over standard CTC/Attention-based hybrid models. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art systems using self-supervised models with the Conformer architecture improve over the results of prior work on FLEURS by a relative 28.4% CER. Trained models and reproducible recipes are available at https://github.com/espnet/espnet/tree/master/egs2/fleurs/asr1 .

Currently, pre-trained models can be considered the default choice for a wide range of NLP tasks. Despite their SoTA results, there is practical evidence that these models may require a different number of computing layers for different input sequences, since evaluating all layers leads to overconfidence in wrong predictions (namely overthinking). This problem can potentially be solved by implementing adaptive computation time approaches, which were first designed to improve inference speed. Recently proposed PonderNet may be a promising solution for performing an early exit by treating the exit layer's index as a latent variable. However, the originally proposed exit criterion, relying on sampling from trained posterior distribution on the probability of exiting from the i-th layer, introduces major variance in exit layer indices, significantly reducing the resulting model's performance. In this paper, we propose improving PonderNet with a novel deterministic Q-exit criterion and a revisited model architecture. We adapted the proposed mechanism to ALBERT and RoBERTa and compared it with recent methods for performing an early exit. We observed that the proposed changes can be considered significant improvements on the original PonderNet architecture and outperform PABEE on a wide range of GLUE tasks. In addition, we also performed an in-depth ablation study of the proposed architecture to further understand Lambda layers and their performance.

In this paper, we propose a framework named OCSampler to explore a compact yet effective video representation with one short clip for efficient video recognition. Recent works prefer to formulate frame sampling as a sequential decision task by selecting frames one by one according to their importance, while we present a new paradigm of learning instance-specific video condensation policies to select informative frames for representing the entire video only in a single step. Our basic motivation is that the efficient video recognition task lies in processing a whole sequence at once rather than picking up frames sequentially. Accordingly, these policies are derived from a light-weighted skim network together with a simple yet effective policy network within one step. Moreover, we extend the proposed method with a frame number budget, enabling the framework to produce correct predictions in high confidence with as few frames as possible. Experiments on four benchmarks, i.e., ActivityNet, Mini-Kinetics, FCVID, Mini-Sports1M, demonstrate the effectiveness of our OCSampler over previous methods in terms of accuracy, theoretical computational expense, actual inference speed. We also evaluate its generalization power across different classifiers, sampled frames, and search spaces. Especially, we achieve 76.9% mAP and 21.7 GFLOPs on ActivityNet with an impressive throughput: 123.9 Videos/s on a single TITAN Xp GPU.

An ideal model for dense video captioning -- predicting captions localized temporally in a video -- should be able to handle long input videos, predict rich, detailed textual descriptions, and be able to produce outputs before processing the entire video. Current state-of-the-art models, however, process a fixed number of downsampled frames, and make a single full prediction after seeing the whole video. We propose a streaming dense video captioning model that consists of two novel components: First, we propose a new memory module, based on clustering incoming tokens, which can handle arbitrarily long videos as the memory is of a fixed size. Second, we develop a streaming decoding algorithm that enables our model to make predictions before the entire video has been processed. Our model achieves this streaming ability, and significantly improves the state-of-the-art on three dense video captioning benchmarks: ActivityNet, YouCook2 and ViTT. Our code is released at https://github.com/google-research/scenic.

A good initialization of deep learning models is essential since it can help them converge better and faster. However, pretraining large models is unaffordable for many researchers, which makes a desired prediction for initial parameters more necessary nowadays. Graph HyperNetworks (GHNs), one approach to predicting model parameters, have recently shown strong performance in initializing large vision models. Unfortunately, predicting parameters of very wide networks relies on copying small chunks of parameters multiple times and requires an extremely large number of parameters to support full prediction, which greatly hinders its adoption in practice. To address this limitation, we propose LoGAH (Low-rank GrAph Hypernetworks), a GHN with a low-rank parameter decoder that expands to significantly wider networks without requiring as excessive increase of parameters as in previous attempts. LoGAH allows us to predict the parameters of 774-million large neural networks in a memory-efficient manner. We show that vision and language models (i.e., ViT and GPT-2) initialized with LoGAH achieve better performance than those initialized randomly or using existing hypernetworks. Furthermore, we show promising transfer learning results w.r.t. training LoGAH on small datasets and using the predicted parameters to initialize for larger tasks. We provide the codes in https://github.com/Blackzxy/LoGAH .

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is a fundamental component of deep learning that has been extensively employed for various problems. However, recent empirical successes in MLP-based architectures, particularly the progress of the MLP-Mixer, have revealed that there is still hidden potential in improving MLPs to achieve better performance. In this study, we reveal that the MLP-Mixer works effectively as a wide MLP with certain sparse weights. Initially, we clarify that the mixing layer of the Mixer has an effective expression as a wider MLP whose weights are sparse and represented by the Kronecker product. This expression naturally defines a permuted-Kronecker (PK) family, which can be regarded as a general class of mixing layers and is also regarded as an approximation of Monarch matrices. Subsequently, because the PK family effectively constitutes a wide MLP with sparse weights, one can apply the hypothesis proposed by Golubeva, Neyshabur and Gur-Ari (2021) that the prediction performance improves as the width (sparsity) increases when the number of weights is fixed. We empirically verify this hypothesis by maximizing the effective width of the MLP-Mixer, which enables us to determine the appropriate size of the mixing layers quantitatively.

Oriented object detection emerges in many applications from aerial images to autonomous driving, while many existing detection benchmarks are annotated with horizontal bounding box only which is also less costive than fine-grained rotated box, leading to a gap between the readily available training corpus and the rising demand for oriented object detection. This paper proposes a simple yet effective oriented object detection approach called H2RBox merely using horizontal box annotation for weakly-supervised training, which closes the above gap and shows competitive performance even against those trained with rotated boxes. The cores of our method are weakly- and self-supervised learning, which predicts the angle of the object by learning the consistency of two different views. To our best knowledge, H2RBox is the first horizontal box annotation-based oriented object detector. Compared to an alternative i.e. horizontal box-supervised instance segmentation with our post adaption to oriented object detection, our approach is not susceptible to the prediction quality of mask and can perform more robustly in complex scenes containing a large number of dense objects and outliers. Experimental results show that H2RBox has significant performance and speed advantages over horizontal box-supervised instance segmentation methods, as well as lower memory requirements. While compared to rotated box-supervised oriented object detectors, our method shows very close performance and speed. The source code is available at PyTorch-based https://github.com/yangxue0827/h2rbox-mmrotate{MMRotate} and Jittor-based https://github.com/yangxue0827/h2rbox-jittor{JDet}.

In an educational setting, an estimate of the difficulty of multiple-choice questions (MCQs), a commonly used strategy to assess learning progress, constitutes very useful information for both teachers and students. Since human assessment is costly from multiple points of view, automatic approaches to MCQ item difficulty estimation are investigated, yielding however mixed success until now. Our approach to this problem takes a different angle from previous work: asking various Large Language Models to tackle the questions included in two different MCQ datasets, we leverage model uncertainty to estimate item difficulty. By using both model uncertainty features as well as textual features in a Random Forest regressor, we show that uncertainty features contribute substantially to difficulty prediction, where difficulty is inversely proportional to the number of students who can correctly answer a question. In addition to showing the value of our approach, we also observe that our model achieves state-of-the-art results on the BEA publicly available dataset.

Today, the acquisition of various behavioral log data has enabled deeper understanding of customer preferences and future behaviors in the marketing field. In particular, multimodal deep learning has achieved highly accurate predictions by combining multiple types of data. Many of these studies utilize with feature fusion to construct multimodal models, which combines extracted representations from each modality. However, since feature fusion treats information from each modality equally, it is difficult to perform flexible analysis such as the attention mechanism that has been used extensively in recent years. Therefore, this study proposes a context-aware multimodal deep learning model that combines Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and cross-attention Transformer, which dynamically changes the attention of deep-contextualized word representations based on background information such as consumer demographic and lifestyle variables. We conduct a comprehensive analysis and demonstrate the effectiveness of our model by comparing it with six reference models in three categories using behavioral logs stored on an online platform. In addition, we present an efficient multimodal learning method by comparing the learning efficiency depending on the optimizers and the prediction accuracy depending on the number of tokens in the text data.

We explore a class of adversarial attacks targeting the activations of language models. By manipulating a relatively small subset of model activations, a, we demonstrate the ability to control the exact prediction of a significant number (in some cases up to 1000) of subsequent tokens t. We empirically verify a scaling law where the maximum number of target tokens t_max predicted depends linearly on the number of tokens a whose activations the attacker controls as t_max = kappa a. We find that the number of bits of control in the input space needed to control a single bit in the output space (what we call attack resistance chi) is remarkably constant between approx 16 and approx 25 over 2 orders of magnitude of model sizes for different language models. Compared to attacks on tokens, attacks on activations are predictably much stronger, however, we identify a surprising regularity where one bit of input steered either via activations or via tokens is able to exert control over a similar amount of output bits. This gives support for the hypothesis that adversarial attacks are a consequence of dimensionality mismatch between the input and output spaces. A practical implication of the ease of attacking language model activations instead of tokens is for multi-modal and selected retrieval models, where additional data sources are added as activations directly, sidestepping the tokenized input. This opens up a new, broad attack surface. By using language models as a controllable test-bed to study adversarial attacks, we were able to experiment with input-output dimensions that are inaccessible in computer vision, especially where the output dimension dominates.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models that were initially proposed for realistic image generation have recently shown success in various perception tasks (e.g., object detection and image segmentation) and are increasingly gaining attention in computer vision. However, extending such models to multi-frame human pose estimation is non-trivial due to the presence of the additional temporal dimension in videos. More importantly, learning representations that focus on keypoint regions is crucial for accurate localization of human joints. Nevertheless, the adaptation of the diffusion-based methods remains unclear on how to achieve such objective. In this paper, we present DiffPose, a novel diffusion architecture that formulates video-based human pose estimation as a conditional heatmap generation problem. First, to better leverage temporal information, we propose SpatioTemporal Representation Learner which aggregates visual evidences across frames and uses the resulting features in each denoising step as a condition. In addition, we present a mechanism called Lookup-based MultiScale Feature Interaction that determines the correlations between local joints and global contexts across multiple scales. This mechanism generates delicate representations that focus on keypoint regions. Altogether, by extending diffusion models, we show two unique characteristics from DiffPose on pose estimation task: (i) the ability to combine multiple sets of pose estimates to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for challenging joints, and (ii) the ability to adjust the number of iterative steps for feature refinement without retraining the model. DiffPose sets new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks: PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

Learning effective protein representations is critical in a variety of tasks in biology such as predicting protein functions. Recent sequence representation learning methods based on Protein Language Models (PLMs) excel in sequence-based tasks, but their direct adaptation to tasks involving protein structures remains a challenge. In contrast, structure-based methods leverage 3D structural information with graph neural networks and geometric pre-training methods show potential in function prediction tasks, but still suffers from the limited number of available structures. To bridge this gap, our study undertakes a comprehensive exploration of joint protein representation learning by integrating a state-of-the-art PLM (ESM-2) with distinct structure encoders (GVP, GearNet, CDConv). We introduce three representation fusion strategies and explore different pre-training techniques. Our method achieves significant improvements over existing sequence- and structure-based methods, setting new state-of-the-art for function annotation. This study underscores several important design choices for fusing protein sequence and structure information. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/ESM-GearNet.

The predictions of question answering (QA)systems are typically evaluated against manually annotated finite sets of one or more answers. This leads to a coverage limitation that results in underestimating the true performance of systems, and is typically addressed by extending over exact match (EM) with pre-defined rules or with the token-level F1 measure. In this paper, we present the first systematic conceptual and data-driven analysis to examine the shortcomings of token-level equivalence measures. To this end, we define the asymmetric notion of answer equivalence (AE), accepting answers that are equivalent to or improve over the reference, and publish over 23k human judgments for candidates produced by multiple QA systems on SQuAD. Through a careful analysis of this data, we reveal and quantify several concrete limitations of the F1 measure, such as a false impression of graduality, or missing dependence on the question. Since collecting AE annotations for each evaluated model is expensive, we learn a BERT matching (BEM) measure to approximate this task. Being a simpler task than QA, we find BEM to provide significantly better AE approximations than F1, and to more accurately reflect the performance of systems. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of AE and BEM on the concrete application of minimal accurate prediction sets, reducing the number of required answers by up to x2.6.

Prompt-based learning has been an effective paradigm for large pretrained language models (LLM), enabling few-shot or even zero-shot learning. Black-box prompt search has received growing interest recently for its distinctive properties of gradient-free optimization, proven particularly useful and powerful for model-as-a-service usage. However, the discrete nature and the complexity of combinatorial optimization hinder the efficiency of modern black-box approaches. Despite extensive research on search algorithms, the crucial aspect of search space design and optimization has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we first conduct a sensitivity analysis by prompting LLM, revealing that only a small number of tokens exert a disproportionate amount of influence on LLM predictions. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Clustering and Pruning for Efficient Black-box Prompt Search (ClaPS), a simple black-box search method that first clusters and prunes the search space to focus exclusively on influential prompt tokens. By employing even simple search methods within the pruned search space, ClaPS achieves state-of-the-art performance across various tasks and LLMs, surpassing the performance of complex approaches while significantly reducing search costs. Our findings underscore the critical role of search space design and optimization in enhancing both the usefulness and the efficiency of black-box prompt-based learning.

Event cameras have the ability to record continuous and detailed trajectories of objects with high temporal resolution, thereby providing intuitive motion cues for optical flow estimation. Nevertheless, most existing learning-based approaches for event optical flow estimation directly remould the paradigm of conventional images by representing the consecutive event stream as static frames, ignoring the inherent temporal continuity of event data. In this paper, we argue that temporal continuity is a vital element of event-based optical flow and propose a novel Temporal Motion Aggregation (TMA) approach to unlock its potential. Technically, TMA comprises three components: an event splitting strategy to incorporate intermediate motion information underlying the temporal context, a linear lookup strategy to align temporally fine-grained motion features and a novel motion pattern aggregation module to emphasize consistent patterns for motion feature enhancement. By incorporating temporally fine-grained motion information, TMA can derive better flow estimates than existing methods at early stages, which not only enables TMA to obtain more accurate final predictions, but also greatly reduces the demand for a number of refinements. Extensive experiments on DSEC-Flow and MVSEC datasets verify the effectiveness and superiority of our TMA. Remarkably, compared to E-RAFT, TMA achieves a 6\% improvement in accuracy and a 40\% reduction in inference time on DSEC-Flow. Code will be available at https://github.com/ispc-lab/TMA.

We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.

Theory of mind (ToM; Premack & Woodruff, 1978) broadly refers to humans' ability to represent the mental states of others, including their desires, beliefs, and intentions. We propose to train a machine to build such models too. We design a Theory of Mind neural network -- a ToMnet -- which uses meta-learning to build models of the agents it encounters, from observations of their behaviour alone. Through this process, it acquires a strong prior model for agents' behaviour, as well as the ability to bootstrap to richer predictions about agents' characteristics and mental states using only a small number of behavioural observations. We apply the ToMnet to agents behaving in simple gridworld environments, showing that it learns to model random, algorithmic, and deep reinforcement learning agents from varied populations, and that it passes classic ToM tasks such as the "Sally-Anne" test (Wimmer & Perner, 1983; Baron-Cohen et al., 1985) of recognising that others can hold false beliefs about the world. We argue that this system -- which autonomously learns how to model other agents in its world -- is an important step forward for developing multi-agent AI systems, for building intermediating technology for machine-human interaction, and for advancing the progress on interpretable AI.

This work introduces the Efficient Transformed Gaussian Process (ETGP), a new way of creating C stochastic processes characterized by: 1) the C processes are non-stationary, 2) the C processes are dependent by construction without needing a mixing matrix, 3) training and making predictions is very efficient since the number of Gaussian Processes (GP) operations (e.g. inverting the inducing point's covariance matrix) do not depend on the number of processes. This makes the ETGP particularly suited for multi-class problems with a very large number of classes, which are the problems studied in this work. ETGPs exploit the recently proposed Transformed Gaussian Process (TGP), a stochastic process specified by transforming a Gaussian Process using an invertible transformation. However, unlike TGPs, ETGPs are constructed by transforming a single sample from a GP using C invertible transformations. We derive an efficient sparse variational inference algorithm for the proposed model and demonstrate its utility in 5 classification tasks which include low/medium/large datasets and a different number of classes, ranging from just a few to hundreds. Our results show that ETGPs, in general, outperform state-of-the-art methods for multi-class classification based on GPs, and have a lower computational cost (around one order of magnitude smaller).

The ability to understand and work with numbers (numeracy) is critical for many complex reasoning tasks. Currently, most NLP models treat numbers in text in the same way as other tokens---they embed them as distributed vectors. Is this enough to capture numeracy? We begin by investigating the numerical reasoning capabilities of a state-of-the-art question answering model on the DROP dataset. We find this model excels on questions that require numerical reasoning, i.e., it already captures numeracy. To understand how this capability emerges, we probe token embedding methods (e.g., BERT, GloVe) on synthetic list maximum, number decoding, and addition tasks. A surprising degree of numeracy is naturally present in standard embeddings. For example, GloVe and word2vec accurately encode magnitude for numbers up to 1,000. Furthermore, character-level embeddings are even more precise---ELMo captures numeracy the best for all pre-trained methods---but BERT, which uses sub-word units, is less exact.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

While language models have exceptional capabilities at text generation, they lack a natural inductive bias for emitting numbers and thus struggle in tasks involving reasoning over quantities, especially arithmetics. This has particular relevance in scientific datasets where combinations of text and numerical data are abundant. One fundamental limitation is the nature of the CE loss, which assumes a nominal (categorical) scale and thus cannot convey proximity between generated number tokens. As a remedy, we here present two versions of a number token loss. The first is based on an L_p loss between the ground truth token value and the weighted sum of the predicted class probabilities. The second loss minimizes the Wasserstein-1 distance between the distribution of the predicted output probabilities and the ground truth distribution. These regression-like losses can easily be added to any language model and extend the CE objective during training. We compare the proposed schemes on a mathematics dataset against existing tokenization, encoding, and decoding schemes for improving number representation in language models. Our results reveal a significant improvement in numerical accuracy when equipping a standard T5 model with the proposed loss schemes.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in natural language processing tasks, such as text generation and semantic understanding. However, their performance on numerical reasoning tasks, such as basic arithmetic, numerical retrieval, and magnitude comparison, remains surprisingly poor. This gap arises from their reliance on surface-level statistical patterns rather than understanding numbers as continuous magnitudes. Existing benchmarks primarily focus on either linguistic competence or structured mathematical problem-solving, neglecting fundamental numerical reasoning required in real-world scenarios. To bridge this gap, we propose NumericBench, a comprehensive benchmark to evaluate six fundamental numerical capabilities: number recognition, arithmetic operations, contextual retrieval, comparison, summary, and logical reasoning. NumericBench includes datasets ranging from synthetic number lists to the crawled real-world data, addressing challenges like long contexts, noise, and multi-step reasoning. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art LLMs, including GPT-4 and DeepSeek, reveal persistent weaknesses in numerical reasoning, highlighting the urgent need to improve numerically-aware language modeling. The benchmark is released in: https://github.com/TreeAI-Lab/NumericBench.

The predictions of small transformers, trained to calculate the greatest common divisor (GCD) of two positive integers, can be fully characterized by looking at model inputs and outputs. As training proceeds, the model learns a list mathcal D of integers, products of divisors of the base used to represent integers and small primes, and predicts the largest element of mathcal D that divides both inputs. Training distributions impact performance. Models trained from uniform operands only learn a handful of GCD (up to 38 GCD leq100). Log-uniform operands boost performance to 73 GCD leq 100, and a log-uniform distribution of outcomes (i.e. GCD) to 91. However, training from uniform (balanced) GCD breaks explainability.

Large Language Models (LLMs) do not differentially represent numbers, which are pervasive in text. In contrast, neuroscience research has identified distinct neural representations for numbers and words. In this work, we investigate how well popular LLMs capture the magnitudes of numbers (e.g., that 4 < 5) from a behavioral lens. Prior research on the representational capabilities of LLMs evaluates whether they show human-level performance, for instance, high overall accuracy on standard benchmarks. Here, we ask a different question, one inspired by cognitive science: How closely do the number representations of LLMscorrespond to those of human language users, who typically demonstrate the distance, size, and ratio effects? We depend on a linking hypothesis to map the similarities among the model embeddings of number words and digits to human response times. The results reveal surprisingly human-like representations across language models of different architectures, despite the absence of the neural circuitry that directly supports these representations in the human brain. This research shows the utility of understanding LLMs using behavioral benchmarks and points the way to future work on the number representations of LLMs and their cognitive plausibility.

We show that feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation generalize on low complexity data, suitably defined. Given i.i.d. data generated from a simple programming language, the minimum description length (MDL) feedforward neural network which interpolates the data generalizes with high probability. We define this simple programming language, along with a notion of description length of such networks. We provide several examples on basic computational tasks, such as checking primality of a natural number, and more. For primality testing, our theorem shows the following. Suppose that we draw an i.i.d. sample of Theta(N^{delta}ln N) numbers uniformly at random from 1 to N, where deltain (0,1). For each number x_i, let y_i = 1 if x_i is a prime and 0 if it is not. Then with high probability, the MDL network fitted to this data accurately answers whether a newly drawn number between 1 and N is a prime or not, with test error leq O(N^{-delta}). Note that the network is not designed to detect primes; minimum description learning discovers a network which does so.

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research because of the challenges it presents and the potential rewards that even minor improvements in prediction accuracy or forecasting may entail. Traditionally, financial forecasting has heavily relied on quantitative indicators and metrics derived from structured financial statements. Earnings conference call data, including text and audio, is an important source of unstructured data that has been used for various prediction tasks using deep earning and related approaches. However, current deep learning-based methods are limited in the way that they deal with numeric data; numbers are typically treated as plain-text tokens without taking advantage of their underlying numeric structure. This paper describes a numeric-oriented hierarchical transformer model to predict stock returns, and financial risk using multi-modal aligned earnings calls data by taking advantage of the different categories of numbers (monetary, temporal, percentages etc.) and their magnitude. We present the results of a comprehensive evaluation of NumHTML against several state-of-the-art baselines using a real-world publicly available dataset. The results indicate that NumHTML significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art across a variety of evaluation metrics and that it has the potential to offer significant financial gains in a practical trading context.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

It has been observed in recent years that transformers have problems with length generalization for certain types of reasoning and arithmetic tasks. In particular, the performance of a transformer model trained on tasks (say addition) up to a certain length (e.g., 5 digit numbers) drops sharply when applied to longer instances of the same problem. This work proposes an approach based on task hinting towards addressing length generalization. Our key idea is that while training the model on task-specific data, it is helpful to simultaneously train the model to solve a simpler but related auxiliary task as well. We study the classical sorting problem as a canonical example to evaluate our approach. We design a multitask training framework and show that task hinting significantly improve length generalization. For sorting we show that it is possible to train models on data consisting of sequences having length at most 20, and improve the test accuracy on sequences of length 100 from less than 1% (for standard training) to more than 92% (via task hinting). Our study uncovers several interesting aspects of length generalization. We observe that while several auxiliary tasks may seem natural a priori, their effectiveness in improving length generalization differs dramatically. We further use probing and visualization-based techniques to understand the internal mechanisms via which the model performs the task, and propose a theoretical construction consistent with the observed learning behaviors of the model. Based on our construction, we show that introducing a small number of length dependent parameters into the training procedure can further boost the performance on unseen lengths. Finally, we also show the efficacy of our task hinting based approach beyond sorting, giving hope that these techniques will be applicable in broader contexts.

Transformers, central to the successes in modern Natural Language Processing, often falter on arithmetic tasks despite their vast capabilities --which paradoxically include remarkable coding abilities. We observe that a crucial challenge is their naive reliance on positional information to solve arithmetic problems with a small number of digits, leading to poor performance on larger numbers. Herein, we delve deeper into the role of positional encoding, and propose several ways to fix the issue, either by modifying the positional encoding directly, or by modifying the representation of the arithmetic task to leverage standard positional encoding differently. We investigate the value of these modifications for three tasks: (i) classical multiplication, (ii) length extrapolation in addition, and (iii) addition in natural language context. For (i) we train a small model on a small dataset (100M parameters and 300k samples) with remarkable aptitude in (direct, no scratchpad) 15 digits multiplication and essentially perfect up to 12 digits, while usual training in this context would give a model failing at 4 digits multiplication. In the experiments on addition, we use a mere 120k samples to demonstrate: for (ii) extrapolation from 10 digits to testing on 12 digits numbers while usual training would have no extrapolation, and for (iii) almost perfect accuracy up to 5 digits while usual training would be correct only up to 3 digits (which is essentially memorization with a training set of 120k samples).

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Given the ubiquitous nature of numbers in text, reasoning with numbers to perform simple calculations is an important skill of AI systems. While many datasets and models have been developed to this end, state-of-the-art AI systems are brittle; failing to perform the underlying mathematical reasoning when they appear in a slightly different scenario. Drawing inspiration from GLUE that was proposed in the context of natural language understanding, we propose NumGLUE, a multi-task benchmark that evaluates the performance of AI systems on eight different tasks, that at their core require simple arithmetic understanding. We show that this benchmark is far from being solved with neural models including state-of-the-art large-scale language models performing significantly worse than humans (lower by 46.4%). Further, NumGLUE promotes sharing knowledge across tasks, especially those with limited training data as evidenced by the superior performance (average gain of 3.4% on each task) when a model is jointly trained on all the tasks as opposed to task-specific modeling. Finally, we hope that NumGLUE will encourage systems that perform robust and general arithmetic reasoning within language, a first step towards being able to perform more complex mathematical reasoning.

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Large language models (LLMs) can solve an increasing number of complex reasoning tasks while making surprising mistakes in basic numerical understanding and processing (such as 9.11 > 9.9). The latter ability is essential for tackling complex arithmetic and mathematical problems and serves as a foundation for most reasoning tasks, but previous work paid little attention to it or only discussed several restricted tasks (like integer addition). In this paper, we comprehensively investigate the numerical understanding and processing ability (NUPA) of LLMs. Firstly, we introduce a benchmark covering four common numerical representations and 17 distinct numerical tasks in four major categories, resulting in 41 meaningful combinations in total. These tasks are derived from primary and secondary education curricula, encompassing nearly all everyday numerical understanding and processing scenarios, and the rules of these tasks are very simple and clear. Through the benchmark, we find that current LLMs fail frequently in many of the tasks. To study the problem, we train small models with existing and potential techniques for enhancing NUPA (such as tokenizers, PEs, and number formats), comprehensively evaluating their effectiveness using our testbed. We also finetune practical-scale LLMs on our proposed NUPA tasks and find that 1) naive finetuning can improve NUPA a lot on many but not all tasks, and 2) surprisingly, techniques designed to enhance NUPA prove ineffective for finetuning pretrained models. We further explore the impact of chain-of-thought techniques on NUPA. Our work provides a more detailed and comprehensive understanding of NUPA in LLMs. Our benchmark and code are released at https://github.com/GraphPKU/number_cookbook.

The poor performance of transformers on arithmetic tasks seems to stem in large part from their inability to keep track of the exact position of each digit inside of a large span of digits. We mend this problem by adding an embedding to each digit that encodes its position relative to the start of the number. In addition to the boost these embeddings provide on their own, we show that this fix enables architectural modifications such as input injection and recurrent layers to improve performance even further. With positions resolved, we can study the logical extrapolation ability of transformers. Can they solve arithmetic problems that are larger and more complex than those in their training data? We find that training on only 20 digit numbers with a single GPU for one day, we can reach state-of-the-art performance, achieving up to 99% accuracy on 100 digit addition problems. Finally, we show that these gains in numeracy also unlock improvements on other multi-step reasoning tasks including sorting and multiplication.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Though Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable abilities in mathematics reasoning, they are still struggling with performing numeric operations accurately, such as addition and multiplication. Numbers can be tokenized into tokens in various ways by different LLMs and affect the numeric operations performance. Currently, there are two representatives: 1) Tokenize into 1-digit, and 2) Tokenize into 1sim 3 digit. The difference is roughly equivalent to using different numeral systems (namely base 10 or base 10^{3}). In light of this, we study the scaling behavior of different numeral systems in the context of transformer-based large language models. We empirically show that a base 10 system is consistently more data-efficient than a base 10^{2} or 10^{3} system across training data scale, model sizes under from-scratch training settings, while different number systems have very similar fine-tuning performances. We attribute this to higher token frequencies of a base 10 system. Additionally, we reveal extrapolation behavior patterns on addition and multiplication. We identify that base 100 and base 1000 systems struggle on token-level discernment and token-level operations. We also sheds light on the mechanism learnt by the models.

We examine how transformers cope with two challenges: learning basic integer arithmetic, and generalizing to longer sequences than seen during training. We find that relative position embeddings enable length generalization for simple tasks, such as addition: models trained on 5-digit numbers can perform 15-digit sums. However, this method fails for multiplication, and we propose train set priming: adding a few (10 to 50) long sequences to the training set. We show that priming allows models trained on 5-digit times 3-digit multiplications to generalize to 35times 3 examples. We also show that models can be primed for different generalization lengths, and that the priming sample size scales as the logarithm of the training set size. Finally, we discuss potential applications of priming beyond arithmetic.

Numerical reasoning over natural language has been a long-standing goal for the research community. However, cutting-edge language models have proven difficult to reliably generalize to a broad range of numbers, although they have shown proficiency in reasoning over common and simple numbers. In this paper, we propose a novel method to elicit and exploit the numerical reasoning knowledge hidden in pre-trained language models using simple anchor numbers. Concretely, we first leverage simple numbers as anchors to probe the implicitly inferred arithmetic expressions from language models, and then explicitly apply the expressions on complex numbers to get corresponding answers. To inversely elicit arithmetic expressions, we transform and formulate the task as an analytically solvable linear system. Experimental results on several numerical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly improves numerical reasoning capabilities of existing LMs. More importantly, our approach is training-free and simply works in the inference phase, making it highly portable and achieving consistent performance benefits across a variety of language models (GPT-3, T5, BART, etc) in all zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) have seen considerable advancements in natural language understanding tasks, yet there remains a gap to bridge before attaining true artificial general intelligence, especially concerning shortcomings in mathematical reasoning capabilities. We postulate that the inherent nature of LLM training, which focuses on predicting probabilities of next token, presents challenges in effectively modeling mathematical reasoning that demands exact calculations, both from data-driven and theoretical standpoints. In this paper, we address this challenge by enriching the data landscape and introducing a novel math dataset, enhanced with a capability to utilize a Python code interpreter. This dataset is derived from GSM8K and MATH and has been further refined through a combination of GPT-4 annotations, human review, and self-training processes, where the errors in the original GSM8K training set have been fixed. Additionally, we propose a tentative, easily replicable protocol for the fine-tuning of math-specific LLMs, which has led to a significant improvement in the performance of a 7B-parameter LLM on the GSM8K and MATH datasets. We are committed to advancing the field of mathematical reasoning in LLMs and, to that end, we have made the model checkpoints and will make the dataset publicly available. We hope this will facilitate further research and development within the community.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

The ability (and inability) of large language models (LLMs) to perform arithmetic tasks has been the subject of much theoretical and practical debate. We show that LLMs are frequently able to correctly and confidently predict the first digit of n-digit by m-digit multiplication tasks without using chain of thought reasoning, despite these tasks require compounding operations to solve. Simultaneously, LLMs in practice often fail to correctly or confidently predict the last digit of an n-digit by m-digit multiplication, a task equivalent to 1-digit by 1-digit multiplication which can be easily learned or memorized. We show that the latter task can be solved more robustly when the LLM is conditioned on all of the correct higher-order digits, which on average increases the confidence of the correct last digit on 5-digit by 5-digit multiplication tasks using Llama 2-13B by over 230% (0.13 to 0.43) and Mistral-7B by 150% (0.22 to 0.55).

Large language models like GPT-4 exhibit emergent capabilities across general-purpose tasks, such as basic arithmetic, when trained on extensive text data, even though these tasks are not explicitly encoded by the unsupervised, next-token prediction objective. This study investigates how small transformers, trained from random initialization, can efficiently learn arithmetic operations such as addition, multiplication, and elementary functions like square root, using the next-token prediction objective. We first demonstrate that conventional training data is not the most effective for arithmetic learning, and simple formatting changes can significantly improve accuracy. This leads to sharp phase transitions as a function of training data scale, which, in some cases, can be explained through connections to low-rank matrix completion. Building on prior work, we then train on chain-of-thought style data that includes intermediate step results. Even in the complete absence of pretraining, this approach significantly and simultaneously improves accuracy, sample complexity, and convergence speed. We also study the interplay between arithmetic and text data during training and examine the effects of few-shot prompting, pretraining, and model scale. Additionally, we discuss length generalization challenges. Our work highlights the importance of high-quality, instructive data that considers the particular characteristics of the next-word prediction objective for rapidly eliciting arithmetic capabilities.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

The large number of parameters of some prominent language models, such as BERT, makes their fine-tuning on downstream tasks computationally intensive and energy hungry. Previously researchers were focused on lower bit-width integer data types for the forward propagation of language models to save memory and computation. As for the backward propagation, however, only 16-bit floating-point data type has been used for the fine-tuning of BERT. In this work, we use integer arithmetic for both forward and back propagation in the fine-tuning of BERT. We study the effects of varying the integer bit-width on the model's metric performance. Our integer fine-tuning uses integer arithmetic to perform forward propagation and gradient computation of linear, layer-norm, and embedding layers of BERT. We fine-tune BERT using our integer training method on SQuAD v1.1 and SQuAD v2., and GLUE benchmark. We demonstrate that metric performance of fine-tuning 16-bit integer BERT matches both 16-bit and 32-bit floating-point baselines. Furthermore, using the faster and more memory efficient 8-bit integer data type, integer fine-tuning of BERT loses an average of 3.1 points compared to the FP32 baseline.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

Recent works show that pre-trained language models (PTLMs), such as BERT, possess certain commonsense and factual knowledge. They suggest that it is promising to use PTLMs as "neural knowledge bases" via predicting masked words. Surprisingly, we find that this may not work for numerical commonsense knowledge (e.g., a bird usually has two legs). In this paper, we investigate whether and to what extent we can induce numerical commonsense knowledge from PTLMs as well as the robustness of this process. To study this, we introduce a novel probing task with a diagnostic dataset, NumerSense, containing 13.6k masked-word-prediction probes (10.5k for fine-tuning and 3.1k for testing). Our analysis reveals that: (1) BERT and its stronger variant RoBERTa perform poorly on the diagnostic dataset prior to any fine-tuning; (2) fine-tuning with distant supervision brings some improvement; (3) the best supervised model still performs poorly as compared to human performance (54.06% vs 96.3% in accuracy).

Previous studies have typically assumed that large language models are unable to accurately perform arithmetic operations, particularly multiplication of >8 digits, and operations involving decimals and fractions, without the use of calculator tools. This paper aims to challenge this misconception. With sufficient training data, a 2 billion-parameter language model can accurately perform multi-digit arithmetic operations with almost 100% accuracy without data leakage, significantly surpassing GPT-4 (whose multi-digit multiplication accuracy is only 4.3%). We also demonstrate that our MathGLM, fine-tuned from GLM-10B on a dataset with additional multi-step arithmetic operations and math problems described in text, achieves similar performance to GPT-4 on a 5,000-samples Chinese math problem test set.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Tokenization, the division of input text into input tokens, is an often overlooked aspect of the large language model (LLM) pipeline and could be the source of useful or harmful inductive biases. Historically, LLMs have relied on byte pair encoding, without care to specific input domains. With the increased use of LLMs for reasoning, various number-specific tokenization schemes have been adopted, with popular models like LLaMa and PaLM opting for single-digit tokenization while GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 have separate tokens for each 1-, 2-, and 3-digit numbers. In this work, we study the effect this choice has on numerical reasoning through the use of arithmetic tasks. We consider left-to-right and right-to-left tokenization for GPT-3.5 and -4, finding that right-to-left tokenization (enforced by comma separating numbers at inference time) leads to largely improved performance. Furthermore, we find that model errors when using standard left-to-right tokenization follow stereotyped error patterns, suggesting that model computations are systematic rather than approximate. We show that the model is able to convert between tokenizations easily, thus allowing chain-of-thought-inspired approaches to recover performance on left-to-right tokenized inputs. We also find the gap between tokenization directions decreases when models are scaled, possibly indicating that larger models are better able to override this tokenization-dependent inductive bias. In summary, our work performs the first study of how number tokenization choices lead to differences in model performance on arithmetic tasks, accompanied by a thorough analysis of error patterns. We hope this work inspires practitioners to more carefully ablate number tokenization-related choices when working towards general models of numerical reasoning.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

Understanding the inner workings of machine learning models like Transformers is vital for their safe and ethical use. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of a one-layer Transformer model trained to perform n-digit integer addition. Our findings suggest that the model dissects the task into parallel streams dedicated to individual digits, employing varied algorithms tailored to different positions within the digits. Furthermore, we identify a rare scenario characterized by high loss, which we explain. By thoroughly elucidating the model's algorithm, we provide new insights into its functioning. These findings are validated through rigorous testing and mathematical modeling, thereby contributing to the broader fields of model understanding and interpretability. Our approach opens the door for analyzing more complex tasks and multi-layer Transformer models.

Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics problems. Each problem in MATH has a full step-by-step solution which can be used to teach models to generate answer derivations and explanations. To facilitate future research and increase accuracy on MATH, we also contribute a large auxiliary pretraining dataset which helps teach models the fundamentals of mathematics. Even though we are able to increase accuracy on MATH, our results show that accuracy remains relatively low, even with enormous Transformer models. Moreover, we find that simply increasing budgets and model parameter counts will be impractical for achieving strong mathematical reasoning if scaling trends continue. While scaling Transformers is automatically solving most other text-based tasks, scaling is not currently solving MATH. To have more traction on mathematical problem solving we will likely need new algorithmic advancements from the broader research community.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

Large Language Models (LLMs) typically represent numbers using multiple tokens, which requires the model to aggregate these tokens to interpret numerical values. This fragmentation makes both training and inference less efficient and adversely affects the model's performance on number-related tasks. Inspired by the observation that pre-trained LLMs internally learn Fourier-like features for number tokens, we propose Fourier Number Embedding (FoNE), a novel method that directly maps numbers into the embedding space with their Fourier features. FoNE encodes each number as a single token with only two embedding dimensions per digit, effectively capturing numerical values without fragmentation. This compact representation accelerates both training and inference. Compared to traditional subword and digit-wise embeddings, FoNE not only reduces computational overhead but also achieves higher accuracy across various numerical tasks including addition, subtraction and multiplication. On 6-digit decimal addition, FoNE requires 64times less data to achieve 99% accuracy than subword and digit-wise embeddings while using 3times and 6times fewer tokens per number, respectively. Furthermore, FoNE is the only method that yields 100% accuracy on over 100,000 test examples for addition, subtraction, and multiplication. The codes and visualization are available at https://fouriernumber.github.io/.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.

Pre-trained large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive mathematical reasoning capabilities, yet how they compute basic arithmetic, such as addition, remains unclear. This paper shows that pre-trained LLMs add numbers using Fourier features -- dimensions in the hidden state that represent numbers via a set of features sparse in the frequency domain. Within the model, MLP and attention layers use Fourier features in complementary ways: MLP layers primarily approximate the magnitude of the answer using low-frequency features, while attention layers primarily perform modular addition (e.g., computing whether the answer is even or odd) using high-frequency features. Pre-training is crucial for this mechanism: models trained from scratch to add numbers only exploit low-frequency features, leading to lower accuracy. Introducing pre-trained token embeddings to a randomly initialized model rescues its performance. Overall, our analysis demonstrates that appropriate pre-trained representations (e.g., Fourier features) can unlock the ability of Transformers to learn precise mechanisms for algorithmic tasks.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Neural networks have a reputation for being better at solving statistical or approximate problems than at performing calculations or working with symbolic data. In this paper, we show that they can be surprisingly good at more elaborated tasks in mathematics, such as symbolic integration and solving differential equations. We propose a syntax for representing mathematical problems, and methods for generating large datasets that can be used to train sequence-to-sequence models. We achieve results that outperform commercial Computer Algebra Systems such as Matlab or Mathematica.

This technical report describes the design and training of novel speculative decoding draft models, for accelerating the inference speeds of large language models in a production environment. By conditioning draft predictions on both context vectors and sampled tokens, we can train our speculators to efficiently predict high-quality n-grams, which the base model then accepts or rejects. This allows us to effectively predict multiple tokens per inference forward pass, accelerating wall-clock inference speeds of highly optimized base model implementations by a factor of 2-3x. We explore these initial results and describe next steps for further improvements.

Language models are rarely shown fruitful mistakes while training. They then struggle to look beyond the next token, suffering from a snowballing of errors and struggling to predict the consequence of their actions several steps ahead. In this paper, we show how language models can be taught to search by representing the process of search in language, as a flattened string -- a stream of search (SoS). We propose a unified language for search that captures an array of different symbolic search strategies. We demonstrate our approach using the simple yet difficult game of Countdown, where the goal is to combine input numbers with arithmetic operations to reach a target number. We pretrain a transformer-based language model from scratch on a dataset of streams of search generated by heuristic solvers. We find that SoS pretraining increases search accuracy by 25% over models trained to predict only the optimal search trajectory. We further finetune this model with two policy improvement methods: Advantage-Induced Policy Alignment (APA) and Self-Taught Reasoner (STaR). The finetuned SoS models solve 36% of previously unsolved problems, including problems that cannot be solved by any of the heuristic solvers. Our results indicate that language models can learn to solve problems via search, self-improve to flexibly use different search strategies, and potentially discover new ones.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

We evaluated the effectiveness of using language models, that were pre-trained in one domain, as the basis for a classification model in another domain: Dutch book reviews. Pre-trained language models have opened up new possibilities for classification tasks with limited labelled data, because representation can be learned in an unsupervised fashion. In our experiments we have studied the effects of training set size (100-1600 items) on the prediction accuracy of a ULMFiT classifier, based on a language models that we pre-trained on the Dutch Wikipedia. We also compared ULMFiT to Support Vector Machines, which is traditionally considered suitable for small collections. We found that ULMFiT outperforms SVM for all training set sizes and that satisfactory results (~90%) can be achieved using training sets that can be manually annotated within a few hours. We deliver both our new benchmark collection of Dutch book reviews for sentiment classification as well as the pre-trained Dutch language model to the community.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

We find arithmetic ability resides within a limited number of attention heads, with each head specializing in distinct operations. To delve into the reason, we introduce the Comparative Neuron Analysis (CNA) method, which identifies an internal logic chain consisting of four distinct stages from input to prediction: feature enhancing with shallow FFN neurons, feature transferring by shallow attention layers, feature predicting by arithmetic heads, and prediction enhancing among deep FFN neurons. Moreover, we identify the human-interpretable FFN neurons within both feature-enhancing and feature-predicting stages. These findings lead us to investigate the mechanism of LoRA, revealing that it enhances prediction probabilities by amplifying the coefficient scores of FFN neurons related to predictions. Finally, we apply our method in model pruning for arithmetic tasks and model editing for reducing gender bias. Code is on https://github.com/zepingyu0512/arithmetic-mechanism.

Uncertainty learning and quantification of models are crucial tasks to enhance the trustworthiness of the models. Importantly, the recent surge of generative language models (GLMs) emphasizes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification due to the concerns on generating hallucinated facts. In this paper, we propose to learn neural prediction set models that comes with the probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee for quantifying the uncertainty of GLMs. Unlike existing prediction set models, which are parameterized by a scalar value, we propose to parameterize prediction sets via neural networks, which achieves more precise uncertainty quantification but still satisfies the PAC guarantee. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on four types of language datasets and six types of models by showing that our method improves the quantified uncertainty by 63% on average, compared to a standard baseline method.

Length generalization, defined as the ability to extrapolate from shorter training sequences to longer test ones, is a significant challenge for language models. This issue persists even with large-scale Transformers handling relatively straightforward tasks. In this paper, we test the Transformer's ability of length generalization using the task of addition of two integers. We show that the success of length generalization is intricately linked to the data format and the type of position encoding. Using the right combination of data format and position encodings, we show for the first time that standard Transformers can extrapolate to a sequence length that is 2.5x the input length. Nevertheless, unlike in-distribution generalization, length generalization remains fragile, significantly influenced by factors like random weight initialization and training data order, leading to large variances across different random seeds.

Numerical reasoning over text (NRoT) presents unique challenges that are not well addressed by existing pre-training objectives. We explore five sequential training schedules that adapt a pre-trained T5 model for NRoT. Our final model is adapted from T5, but further pre-trained on three datasets designed to strengthen skills necessary for NRoT and general reading comprehension before being fine-tuned on the Discrete Reasoning over Text (DROP) dataset. The training improves DROP's adjusted F1 performance (a numeracy-focused score) from 45.90 to 70.83. Our model closes in on GenBERT (72.4), a custom BERT-Base model using the same datasets with significantly more parameters. We show that training the T5 multitasking framework with multiple numerical reasoning datasets of increasing difficulty, good performance on DROP can be achieved without manually engineering partitioned functionality between distributed and symbol modules.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

We report the development of GPT-4, a large-scale, multimodal model which can accept image and text inputs and produce text outputs. While less capable than humans in many real-world scenarios, GPT-4 exhibits human-level performance on various professional and academic benchmarks, including passing a simulated bar exam with a score around the top 10% of test takers. GPT-4 is a Transformer-based model pre-trained to predict the next token in a document. The post-training alignment process results in improved performance on measures of factuality and adherence to desired behavior. A core component of this project was developing infrastructure and optimization methods that behave predictably across a wide range of scales. This allowed us to accurately predict some aspects of GPT-4's performance based on models trained with no more than 1/1,000th the compute of GPT-4.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

While language models have demonstrated impressive capabilities across a range of tasks, they still struggle with tasks that require complex planning and reasoning. Recent studies have proposed training language models on search processes rather than optimal solutions, resulting in better generalization performance even though search processes are noisy and even suboptimal. However, these studies overlook the value of optimal solutions, which can serve as step-by-step landmarks to guide more effective search. In this work, we explore how to leverage optimal solutions to enhance the search and planning abilities of language models. To this end, we propose guided stream of search (GSoS), which seamlessly incorporates optimal solutions into the self-generation process in a progressive manner, producing high-quality search trajectories. These trajectories are then distilled into the pre-trained model via supervised fine-tuning. Our approach significantly enhances the search and planning abilities of language models on Countdown, a simple yet challenging mathematical reasoning task. Notably, combining our method with RL fine-tuning yields further improvements, whereas previous supervised fine-tuning methods do not benefit from RL. Furthermore, our approach exhibits greater effectiveness than leveraging optimal solutions in the form of subgoal rewards.

Mathematical reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs) is often evaluated using benchmarks with limited numerical ranges, failing to reflect real-world problem-solving across diverse scales. Furthermore, most existing evaluation methods only compare model outputs to ground-truth answers, obscuring insights into reasoning processes. To address these limitations, we introduce GSM-Ranges, a dataset generator derived from GSM8K that systematically perturbs numerical values in math problems to assess model robustness across varying numerical scales. Additionally, we propose a novel grading methodology that distinguishes between logical and non-logical errors, offering a more precise evaluation of reasoning processes beyond computational accuracy. Our experiments with various models reveal a significant increase in logical error rates-up to 14 percentage points-as numerical complexity rises, demonstrating a general weakness in reasoning with out-of-distribution numerical values. Moreover, while models demonstrate high accuracy on standalone arithmetic tasks, their performance deteriorates substantially when computations are embedded within word problems. These findings provide a comprehensive evaluation of LLMs' mathematical reasoning capabilities and inform future research directions for improving numerical generalization in language models.

As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed text generation through inherently probabilistic context-aware mechanisms, mimicking human natural language. In this paper, we systematically investigate the performance of various LLMs when generating random numbers, considering diverse configurations such as different model architectures, numerical ranges, temperature, and prompt languages. Our results reveal that, despite their stochastic transformers-based architecture, these models often exhibit deterministic responses when prompted for random numerical outputs. In particular, we find significant differences when changing the model, as well as the prompt language, attributing this phenomenon to biases deeply embedded within the training data. Models such as DeepSeek-R1 can shed some light on the internal reasoning process of LLMs, despite arriving to similar results. These biases induce predictable patterns that undermine genuine randomness, as LLMs are nothing but reproducing our own human cognitive biases.

Procedural video representation learning is an active research area where the objective is to learn an agent which can anticipate and forecast the future given the present video input, typically in conjunction with textual annotations. Prior works often rely on large-scale pretraining of visual encoders and prediction models with language supervision. However, the necessity and effectiveness of extending compute intensive pretraining to learn video clip sequences with noisy text supervision have not yet been fully validated by previous works. In this work, we show that a strong off-the-shelf frozen pretrained visual encoder, along with a well designed prediction model, can achieve state-of-the-art (SoTA) performance in forecasting and procedural planning without the need for pretraining the prediction model, nor requiring additional supervision from language or ASR. Instead of learning representations from pixel space, our method utilizes the latent embedding space of publicly available vision encoders. By conditioning on frozen clip-level embeddings from observed steps to predict the actions of unseen steps, our prediction model is able to learn robust representations for forecasting through iterative denoising - leveraging the recent advances in diffusion transformers (Peebles & Xie, 2023). Empirical studies over a total of five procedural learning tasks across four datasets (NIV, CrossTask, COIN and Ego4D-v2) show that our model advances the strong baselines in long-horizon action anticipation (+2.6% in Verb ED@20, +3.1% in Noun ED@20), and significantly improves the SoTA in step forecasting (+5.0%), task classification (+3.8%), and procedure planning tasks (up to +2.28% in success rate, +3.39% in mAcc, and +0.90% in mIoU).

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

While making investment decisions by reading financial documents, investors need to differentiate between in-claim and outof-claim numerals. In this paper, we present a tool which does it automatically. It extracts context embeddings of the numerals using one of the transformer based pre-trained language model called BERT. After this, it uses a Logistic Regression based model to detect whether the numerals is in-claim or out-of-claim. We use FinNum-3 (English) dataset to train our model. After conducting rigorous experiments we achieve a Macro F1 score of 0.8223 on the validation set. We have open-sourced this tool and it can be accessed from https://github.com/sohomghosh/FiNCAT_Financial_Numeral_Claim_Analysis_Tool

In symbolic regression, the goal is to find an analytical expression that accurately fits experimental data with the minimal use of mathematical symbols such as operators, variables, and constants. However, the combinatorial space of possible expressions can make it challenging for traditional evolutionary algorithms to find the correct expression in a reasonable amount of time. To address this issue, Neural Symbolic Regression (NSR) algorithms have been developed that can quickly identify patterns in the data and generate analytical expressions. However, these methods, in their current form, lack the capability to incorporate user-defined prior knowledge, which is often required in natural sciences and engineering fields. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel neural symbolic regression method, named Neural Symbolic Regression with Hypothesis (NSRwH) that enables the explicit incorporation of assumptions about the expected structure of the ground-truth expression into the prediction process. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed conditioned deep learning model outperforms its unconditioned counterparts in terms of accuracy while also providing control over the predicted expression structure.

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting in large language models (LLMs) has shown promising performance on mathematical reasoning tasks. Recently, Self-Consistency samples a diverse set of reasoning chains with different answers and chooses the answer by majority voting. Though effective, its performance cannot be further improved by sampling more reasoning chains. To address this problem, we propose to integrate backward reasoning into answer verification. We first mask a number in the question by {bf x}. The LLM is then asked to predict the masked number with a candidate answer A embedded in the template: ``If we know the answer to the above question is {A}, what is the value of unknown variable {bf x}?'' The LLM is expected to predict the masked number successfully if the provided candidate answer is correct. To further improve performance, we propose FOBAR (FOrward-BAckward Reasoning) to combine forward and backward reasoning for verifying candidate answers. Experiments are performed on six standard mathematical data sets and three LLMs (text-davinci-003, GPT-3.5-Turbo, GPT-4). Results show that FOBAR achieves state-of-the-art performance. In particular, FOBAR outperforms Self-Consistency which uses forward reasoning alone, demonstrating that combining forward and forward reasoning is better. It also outperforms existing verification methods, verifying the effectiveness of using the simple template in backward reasoning and the proposed combination.

Large pre-trained language models (LMs) are known to encode substantial amounts of linguistic information. However, high-level reasoning skills, such as numerical reasoning, are difficult to learn from a language-modeling objective only. Consequently, existing models for numerical reasoning have used specialized architectures with limited flexibility. In this work, we show that numerical reasoning is amenable to automatic data generation, and thus one can inject this skill into pre-trained LMs, by generating large amounts of data, and training in a multi-task setup. We show that pre-training our model, GenBERT, on this data, dramatically improves performance on DROP (49.3 rightarrow 72.3 F1), reaching performance that matches state-of-the-art models of comparable size, while using a simple and general-purpose encoder-decoder architecture. Moreover, GenBERT generalizes well to math word problem datasets, while maintaining high performance on standard RC tasks. Our approach provides a general recipe for injecting skills into large pre-trained LMs, whenever the skill is amenable to automatic data augmentation.

We address the challenge of efficient auto-regressive generation in sequence prediction models by introducing FutureFill - a method for fast generation that applies to any sequence prediction algorithm based on convolutional operators. Our approach reduces the generation time requirement from quadratic to quasilinear relative to the context length. Additionally, FutureFill requires a prefill cache sized only by the number of tokens generated, which is smaller than the cache requirements for standard convolutional and attention-based models. We validate our theoretical findings with experimental evidence demonstrating correctness and efficiency gains in a synthetic generation task.

This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) utilize numerical attributes encoded in a low-dimensional subspace of the embedding space when answering logical comparison questions (e.g., Was Cristiano born before Messi?). We first identified these subspaces using partial least squares regression, which effectively encodes the numerical attributes associated with the entities in comparison prompts. Further, we demonstrate causality by intervening in these subspaces to manipulate hidden states, thereby altering the LLM's comparison outcomes. Experimental results show that our findings hold for different numerical attributes, indicating that LLMs utilize the linearly encoded information for numerical reasoning.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

How much is 56 times 37? Language models often make mistakes in these types of difficult calculations. This is usually explained by their inability to perform complex reasoning. Since language models rely on large training sets and great memorization capability, naturally they are not equipped to run complex calculations. However, one can argue that humans also cannot perform this calculation immediately and require a considerable amount of time to construct the solution. In order to enhance the generalization capability of language models, and as a parallel to human behavior, we propose to use special 'thinking tokens' which allow the model to perform much more calculations whenever a complex problem is encountered.

Sparsity in the structure of Neural Networks can lead to less energy consumption, less memory usage, faster computation times on convenient hardware, and automated machine learning. If sparsity gives rise to certain kinds of structure, it can explain automatically obtained features during learning. We provide insights into experiments in which we show how sparsity can be achieved through prior initialization, pruning, and during learning, and answer questions on the relationship between the structure of Neural Networks and their performance. This includes the first work of inducing priors from network theory into Recurrent Neural Networks and an architectural performance prediction during a Neural Architecture Search. Within our experiments, we show how magnitude class blinded pruning achieves 97.5% on MNIST with 80% compression and re-training, which is 0.5 points more than without compression, that magnitude class uniform pruning is significantly inferior to it and how a genetic search enhanced with performance prediction achieves 82.4% on CIFAR10. Further, performance prediction for Recurrent Networks learning the Reber grammar shows an R^2 of up to 0.81 given only structural information.

Large language models display remarkable capabilities in logical and mathematical reasoning, allowing them to solve complex tasks. Interestingly, these abilities emerge in networks trained on the simple task of next-token prediction. In this work, we present a theoretical framework for studying auto-regressive next-token predictors. We demonstrate that even simple models such as linear next-token predictors, trained on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data, can approximate any function efficiently computed by a Turing machine. We introduce a new complexity measure -- length complexity -- which measures the number of intermediate tokens in a CoT sequence required to approximate some target function, and analyze the interplay between length complexity and other notions of complexity. Finally, we show experimentally that simple next-token predictors, such as linear networks and shallow Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), display non-trivial performance on text generation and arithmetic tasks. Our results demonstrate that the power of language models can be attributed, to a great extent, to the auto-regressive next-token training scheme, and not necessarily to a particular choice of architecture.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in solving reasoning tasks; however, even the strongest models still occasionally make reasoning mistakes. Recently, there has been active research aimed at improving reasoning accuracy, particularly by using pretrained language models to "self-correct" their mistakes via multi-round prompting. In this paper, we follow this line of work but focus on understanding the usefulness of incorporating "error-correction" data directly into the pretraining stage. This data consists of erroneous solution steps immediately followed by their corrections. Using a synthetic math dataset, we show promising results: this type of pretrain data can help language models achieve higher reasoning accuracy directly (i.e., through simple auto-regression, without multi-round prompting) compared to pretraining on the same amount of error-free data. We also delve into many details, such as (1) how this approach differs from beam search, (2) how such data can be prepared, (3) whether masking is needed on the erroneous tokens, (4) the amount of error required, (5) whether such data can be deferred to the fine-tuning stage, and many others.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

Language models often pre-train on large unsupervised text corpora, then fine-tune on additional task-specific data. However, typical fine-tuning schemes do not prioritize the examples that they tune on. We show that, if you can prioritize informative training data, you can achieve better performance while using fewer labels. To do this we augment a language model with an epinet: a small additional network that helps to estimate model uncertainty and forms an epistemic neural network (ENN). ENNs are neural networks that can know what they don't know. Using an epinet to prioritize uncertain data, we can fine-tune BERT on GLUE tasks to the same performance while using 2x less data than training without prioritization. We also investigate performance in synthetic neural network generative models designed to build understanding. In each setting, using an epinet outperforms heuristic active learning schemes.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

Deep neural network (DNN) deployment has been confined to larger hardware devices due to their expensive computational requirements. This challenge has recently reached another scale with the emergence of large language models (LLMs). In order to reduce both their memory footprint and latency, a promising technique is quantization. It consists in converting floating point representations to low bit-width fixed point representations, usually by assuming a uniform mapping onto a regular grid. This process, referred to in the literature as uniform quantization, may however be ill-suited as most DNN weights and activations follow a bell-shaped distribution. This is even worse on LLMs whose weight distributions are known to exhibit large, high impact, outlier values. In this work, we propose an improvement over the most commonly adopted way to tackle this limitation in deep learning models quantization, namely, non-uniform quantization. NUPES leverages automorphisms to preserve the scalar multiplications. Such transformations are derived from power functions. However, the optimization of the exponent parameter and weight values remains a challenging and novel problem which could not be solved with previous post training optimization techniques which only learn to round up or down weight values in order to preserve the predictive function. We circumvent this limitation with a new paradigm: learning new quantized weights over the entire quantized space. Similarly, we enable the optimization of the power exponent, i.e. the optimization of the quantization operator itself during training by alleviating all the numerical instabilities. The resulting predictive function is compatible with integer-only low-bit inference. We show the ability of the method to achieve state-of-the-art compression rates in both, data-free and data-driven configurations.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

In recent years, Transformers have become the de-facto architecture for sequence modeling on text and a variety of multi-dimensional data, such as images and video. However, the use of self-attention layers in a Transformer incurs prohibitive compute and memory complexity that scales quadratically w.r.t. the sequence length. A recent architecture, Mamba, based on state space models has been shown to achieve comparable performance for modeling text sequences, while scaling linearly with the sequence length. In this work, we present Mamba-ND, a generalized design extending the Mamba architecture to arbitrary multi-dimensional data. Our design alternatively unravels the input data across different dimensions following row-major orderings. We provide a systematic comparison of Mamba-ND with several other alternatives, based on prior multi-dimensional extensions such as Bi-directional LSTMs and S4ND. Empirically, we show that Mamba-ND demonstrates performance competitive with the state-of-the-art on a variety of multi-dimensional benchmarks, including ImageNet-1K classification, HMDB-51 action recognition, and ERA5 weather forecasting.

In recent studies, linear recurrent neural networks (LRNNs) have achieved Transformer-level performance in natural language and long-range modeling, while offering rapid parallel training and constant inference cost. With the resurgence of interest in LRNNs, we study whether they can learn the hidden rules in training sequences, such as the grammatical structures of regular language. We theoretically analyze some existing LRNNs and discover their limitations in modeling regular language. Motivated by this analysis, we propose a new LRNN equipped with a block-diagonal and input-dependent transition matrix. Experiments suggest that the proposed model is the only LRNN capable of performing length extrapolation on regular language tasks such as Sum, Even Pair, and Modular Arithmetic. The code is released at https://github.com/tinghanf/RegluarLRNN.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

The Neural Arithmetic Logic Unit (NALU) is a neural network layer that can learn exact arithmetic operations between the elements of a hidden state. The goal of NALU is to learn perfect extrapolation, which requires learning the exact underlying logic of an unknown arithmetic problem. Evaluating the performance of the NALU is non-trivial as one arithmetic problem might have many solutions. As a consequence, single-instance MSE has been used to evaluate and compare performance between models. However, it can be hard to interpret what magnitude of MSE represents a correct solution and models sensitivity to initialization. We propose using a success-criterion to measure if and when a model converges. Using a success-criterion we can summarize success-rate over many initialization seeds and calculate confidence intervals. We contribute a generalized version of the previous arithmetic benchmark to measure models sensitivity under different conditions. This is, to our knowledge, the first extensive evaluation with respect to convergence of the NALU and its sub-units. Using a success-criterion to summarize 4800 experiments we find that consistently learning arithmetic extrapolation is challenging, in particular for multiplication.

Mathematical reasoning---a core ability within human intelligence---presents some unique challenges as a domain: we do not come to understand and solve mathematical problems primarily on the back of experience and evidence, but on the basis of inferring, learning, and exploiting laws, axioms, and symbol manipulation rules. In this paper, we present a new challenge for the evaluation (and eventually the design) of neural architectures and similar system, developing a task suite of mathematics problems involving sequential questions and answers in a free-form textual input/output format. The structured nature of the mathematics domain, covering arithmetic, algebra, probability and calculus, enables the construction of training and test splits designed to clearly illuminate the capabilities and failure-modes of different architectures, as well as evaluate their ability to compose and relate knowledge and learned processes. Having described the data generation process and its potential future expansions, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of models from two broad classes of the most powerful sequence-to-sequence architectures and find notable differences in their ability to resolve mathematical problems and generalize their knowledge.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Low precision training and inference affect both the quality and cost of language models, but current scaling laws do not account for this. In this work, we devise "precision-aware" scaling laws for both training and inference. We propose that training in lower precision reduces the model's "effective parameter count," allowing us to predict the additional loss incurred from training in low precision and post-train quantization. For inference, we find that the degradation introduced by post-training quantization increases as models are trained on more data, eventually making additional pretraining data actively harmful. For training, our scaling laws allow us to predict the loss of a model with different parts in different precisions, and suggest that training larger models in lower precision may be compute optimal. We unify the scaling laws for post and pretraining quantization to arrive at a single functional form that predicts degradation from training and inference in varied precisions. We fit on over 465 pretraining runs and validate our predictions on model sizes up to 1.7B parameters trained on up to 26B tokens.

Mathematical capabilities were previously believed to emerge in common language models only at a very large scale or require extensive math-related pre-training. This paper shows that the LLaMA-2 7B model with common pre-training already exhibits strong mathematical abilities, as evidenced by its impressive accuracy of 97.7% and 72.0% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively, when selecting the best response from 256 random generations. The primary issue with the current base model is the difficulty in consistently eliciting its inherent mathematical capabilities. Notably, the accuracy for the first answer drops to 49.5% and 7.9% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively. We find that simply scaling up the SFT data can significantly enhance the reliability of generating correct answers. However, the potential for extensive scaling is constrained by the scarcity of publicly available math questions. To overcome this limitation, we employ synthetic data, which proves to be nearly as effective as real data and shows no clear saturation when scaled up to approximately one million samples. This straightforward approach achieves an accuracy of 82.6% on GSM8K and 40.6% on MATH using LLaMA-2 7B models, surpassing previous models by 14.2% and 20.8%, respectively. We also provide insights into scaling behaviors across different reasoning complexities and error types.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Generating texts with a large language model (LLM) consumes massive amounts of memory. Apart from the already-large model parameters, the key/value (KV) cache that holds information about previous tokens in a sequence can grow to be even larger than the model itself. This problem is exacerbated in one of the current LLM serving frameworks which reserves the maximum sequence length of memory for the KV cache to guarantee generating a complete sequence as they do not know the output sequence length. This restricts us to use a smaller batch size leading to lower GPU utilization and above all, lower throughput. We argue that designing a system with a priori knowledge of the output sequence can mitigate this problem. To this end, we propose S^{3}, which predicts the output sequence length, schedules generation queries based on the prediction to increase device resource utilization and throughput, and handle mispredictions. Our proposed method achieves 6.49times throughput over those systems that assume the worst case for the output sequence length.

We discovered the underlying physics in Next-token Prediction (NTP). We identified the law of information conservation within NTP and proposed the First Law of Information Capacity (IC-1), demonstrating that the essence of intelligence emergence in auto-regressive models is fundamentally a process of information transfer. We also introduced Landauer's Principle into NTP, formulating the Second Law of Information Capacity (IC-2), which establishes the relationship between auto-regressive model training and energy consumption. Additionally, we presented several corollaries, which hold practical significance for production practices. Finally, we validated the compatibility and complementarity of our findings with existing theories.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Mathematical reasoning is a challenging task for large language models (LLMs), while the scaling relationship of it with respect to LLM capacity is under-explored. In this paper, we investigate how the pre-training loss, supervised data amount, and augmented data amount influence the reasoning performances of a supervised LLM. We find that pre-training loss is a better indicator of the model's performance than the model's parameter count. We apply supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with different amounts of supervised data and empirically find a log-linear relation between data amount and model performance, and we find better models improve less with enlarged supervised datasets. To augment more data samples for improving model performances without any human effort, we propose to apply Rejection sampling Fine-Tuning (RFT). RFT uses supervised models to generate and collect correct reasoning paths as augmented fine-tuning datasets. We find with augmented samples containing more distinct reasoning paths, RFT improves mathematical reasoning performance more for LLMs. We also find RFT brings more improvement for less performant LLMs. Furthermore, we combine rejection samples from multiple models which push LLaMA-7B to an accuracy of 49.3% and outperforms the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) accuracy of 35.9% significantly.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates large language model inference by using a smaller draft model to predict multiple tokens, which are then verified in parallel by the larger target model. However, the limited capacity of the draft model often necessitates tree-based sampling to improve prediction accuracy, where multiple candidates are generated at each step. We identify a key limitation in this approach: the candidates at the same step are derived from the same representation, limiting diversity and reducing overall effectiveness. To address this, we propose Jakiro, leveraging Mixture of Experts (MoE), where independent experts generate diverse predictions, effectively decoupling correlations among candidates. Furthermore, we introduce a hybrid inference strategy, combining autoregressive decoding for initial tokens with parallel decoding for subsequent stages, and enhance the latter with contrastive mechanism in features to improve accuracy. Our method significantly boosts prediction accuracy and achieves higher inference speedups. Extensive experiments across diverse models validate the effectiveness and robustness of our approach, establishing a new SOTA in speculative decoding. Our codes are available at https://github.com/haiduo/Jakiro.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

Predicting invoice payment is valuable in multiple industries and supports decision-making processes in most financial workflows. However, the challenge in this realm involves dealing with complex data and the lack of data related to decisions-making processes not registered in the accounts receivable system. This work presents a prototype developed as a solution devised during a partnership with a multinational bank to support collectors in predicting invoices payment. The proposed prototype reached up to 77\% of accuracy, which improved the prioritization of customers and supported the daily work of collectors. With the presented results, one expects to support researchers dealing with the problem of invoice payment prediction to get insights and examples of how to tackle issues present in real data.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Pre-trained language models can be fine-tuned to solve diverse NLP tasks, including in few-shot settings. Thus fine-tuning allows the model to quickly pick up task-specific ``skills,'' but there has been limited study of where these newly-learnt skills reside inside the massive model. This paper introduces the term skill localization for this problem and proposes a solution. Given the downstream task and a model fine-tuned on that task, a simple optimization is used to identify a very small subset of parameters (sim0.01% of model parameters) responsible for (>95%) of the model's performance, in the sense that grafting the fine-tuned values for just this tiny subset onto the pre-trained model gives performance almost as well as the fine-tuned model. While reminiscent of recent works on parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the novel aspects here are that: (i) No further re-training is needed on the subset (unlike, say, with lottery tickets). (ii) Notable improvements are seen over vanilla fine-tuning with respect to calibration of predictions in-distribution (40-90% error reduction) as well as the quality of predictions out-of-distribution (OOD). In models trained on multiple tasks, a stronger notion of skill localization is observed, where the sparse regions corresponding to different tasks are almost disjoint, and their overlap (when it happens) is a proxy for task similarity. Experiments suggest that localization via grafting can assist certain forms of continual learning.

The problem of Novel Class Discovery (NCD) consists in extracting knowledge from a labeled set of known classes to accurately partition an unlabeled set of novel classes. While NCD has recently received a lot of attention from the community, it is often solved on computer vision problems and under unrealistic conditions. In particular, the number of novel classes is usually assumed to be known in advance, and their labels are sometimes used to tune hyperparameters. Methods that rely on these assumptions are not applicable in real-world scenarios. In this work, we focus on solving NCD in tabular data when no prior knowledge of the novel classes is available. To this end, we propose to tune the hyperparameters of NCD methods by adapting the k-fold cross-validation process and hiding some of the known classes in each fold. Since we have found that methods with too many hyperparameters are likely to overfit these hidden classes, we define a simple deep NCD model. This method is composed of only the essential elements necessary for the NCD problem and performs impressively well under realistic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the latent space of this method can be used to reliably estimate the number of novel classes. Additionally, we adapt two unsupervised clustering algorithms (k-means and Spectral Clustering) to leverage the knowledge of the known classes. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 tabular datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and hyperparameter tuning process, and show that the NCD problem can be solved without relying on knowledge from the novel classes.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

We study the effectiveness of neural sequence models for premise selection in automated theorem proving, one of the main bottlenecks in the formalization of mathematics. We propose a two stage approach for this task that yields good results for the premise selection task on the Mizar corpus while avoiding the hand-engineered features of existing state-of-the-art models. To our knowledge, this is the first time deep learning has been applied to theorem proving on a large scale.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

The primary paradigm for multi-task training in natural language processing is to represent the input with a shared pre-trained language model, and add a small, thin network (head) per task. Given an input, a target head is the head that is selected for outputting the final prediction. In this work, we examine the behaviour of non-target heads, that is, the output of heads when given input that belongs to a different task than the one they were trained for. We find that non-target heads exhibit emergent behaviour, which may either explain the target task, or generalize beyond their original task. For example, in a numerical reasoning task, a span extraction head extracts from the input the arguments to a computation that results in a number generated by a target generative head. In addition, a summarization head that is trained with a target question answering head, outputs query-based summaries when given a question and a context from which the answer is to be extracted. This emergent behaviour suggests that multi-task training leads to non-trivial extrapolation of skills, which can be harnessed for interpretability and generalization.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

Large language models exhibit surprising emergent generalization properties, yet also struggle on many simple reasoning tasks such as arithmetic and parity. This raises the question of if and when Transformer models can learn the true algorithm for solving a task. We study the scope of Transformers' abilities in the specific setting of length generalization on algorithmic tasks. Here, we propose a unifying framework to understand when and how Transformers can exhibit strong length generalization on a given task. Specifically, we leverage RASP (Weiss et al., 2021) -- a programming language designed for the computational model of a Transformer -- and introduce the RASP-Generalization Conjecture: Transformers tend to length generalize on a task if the task can be solved by a short RASP program which works for all input lengths. This simple conjecture remarkably captures most known instances of length generalization on algorithmic tasks. Moreover, we leverage our insights to drastically improve generalization performance on traditionally hard tasks (such as parity and addition). On the theoretical side, we give a simple example where the "min-degree-interpolator" model of learning from Abbe et al. (2023) does not correctly predict Transformers' out-of-distribution behavior, but our conjecture does. Overall, our work provides a novel perspective on the mechanisms of compositional generalization and the algorithmic capabilities of Transformers.

Although large language models demonstrate emergent abilities in solving math word problems, there is a challenging task in complex multi-step mathematical reasoning tasks. To improve model performance on mathematical reasoning tasks, previous work has conducted supervised fine-tuning on open-source models by improving the quality and quantity of data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, named Brain, to imitate human thought processes to enhance mathematical reasoning abilities, using the Frontal Lobe Model to generate plans, and then employing the Parietal Lobe Model to generate code and execute to obtain answers. First, we achieve SOTA performance in comparison with Code LLaMA 7B based models through this method. Secondly, we find that plans can be explicitly extracted from natural language, code, or formal language. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/cyzhh/Brain.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.