Daily Papers

This paper reports the first brain-inspired large language model (BriLLM). This is a non-Transformer, non-GPT, non-traditional machine learning input-output controlled generative language model. The model is based on the Signal Fully-connected flowing (SiFu) definition on the directed graph in terms of the neural network, and has the interpretability of all nodes on the graph of the whole model, instead of the traditional machine learning model that only has limited interpretability at the input and output ends. In the language model scenario, the token is defined as a node in the graph. A randomly shaped or user-defined signal flow flows between nodes on the principle of "least resistance" along paths. The next token or node to be predicted or generated is the target of the signal flow. As a language model, BriLLM theoretically supports infinitely long n-gram models when the model size is independent of the input and predicted length of the model. The model's working signal flow provides the possibility of recall activation and innate multi-modal support similar to the cognitive patterns of the human brain. At present, we released the first BriLLM version in Chinese, with 4000 tokens, 32-dimensional node width, 16-token long sequence prediction ability, and language model prediction performance comparable to GPT-1. More computing power will help us explore the infinite possibilities depicted above.

The rapid adoption of generative language models has brought about substantial advancements in digital communication, while simultaneously raising concerns regarding the potential misuse of AI-generated content. Although numerous detection methods have been proposed to differentiate between AI and human-generated content, the fairness and robustness of these detectors remain underexplored. In this study, we evaluate the performance of several widely-used GPT detectors using writing samples from native and non-native English writers. Our findings reveal that these detectors consistently misclassify non-native English writing samples as AI-generated, whereas native writing samples are accurately identified. Furthermore, we demonstrate that simple prompting strategies can not only mitigate this bias but also effectively bypass GPT detectors, suggesting that GPT detectors may unintentionally penalize writers with constrained linguistic expressions. Our results call for a broader conversation about the ethical implications of deploying ChatGPT content detectors and caution against their use in evaluative or educational settings, particularly when they may inadvertently penalize or exclude non-native English speakers from the global discourse.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

The LayerNorm (LN) layer in GPT-style transformer models has long been a hindrance to mechanistic interpretability. LN is a crucial component required to stabilize the training of large language models, and LN or the similar RMSNorm have been used in practically all large language models based on the transformer architecture. The non-linear nature of the LN layers is a hindrance for mechanistic interpretability as it hinders interpretation of the residual stream, and makes it difficult to decompose the model into circuits. Some research have gone so far as to name "reasons interpretability researchers hate layer norm". In this paper we show that it is possible to remove the LN layers from a pre-trained GPT2-small model by fine-tuning on a fraction (500M tokens) of the training data. We demonstrate that this LN-free model achieves similar performance to the original model on the OpenWebText and ThePile datasets (-0.05 cross-entropy loss), and the Hellaswag benchmark (-0.5% accuracy). We provide the fine-tuning procedure and a Hugging Face repository with the fine-tuned GPT2-small models. Our work not only provides a simplified model for mechanistic interpretability research, but also provides evidence that the LN layers, at inference time, do not play a crucial role in transformer models.

Rebuses are puzzles requiring constrained multi-step reasoning to identify a hidden phrase from a set of images and letters. In this work, we introduce a large collection of verbalized rebuses for the Italian language and use it to assess the rebus-solving capabilities of state-of-the-art large language models. While general-purpose systems such as LLaMA-3 and GPT-4o perform poorly on this task, ad-hoc fine-tuning seems to improve models' performance. However, we find that performance gains from training are largely motivated by memorization. Our results suggest that rebus solving remains a challenging test bed to evaluate large language models' linguistic proficiency and sequential instruction-following skills.

We investigate the effectiveness of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, two large language models, as Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) tools for Brazilian Portuguese and compare their performance against Microsoft Word and Google Docs. We introduce a GEC dataset for Brazilian Portuguese with four categories: Grammar, Spelling, Internet, and Fast typing. Our results show that while GPT-4 has higher recall than other methods, LLMs tend to have lower precision, leading to overcorrection. This study demonstrates the potential of LLMs as practical GEC tools for Brazilian Portuguese and encourages further exploration of LLMs for non-English languages and other educational settings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Text-To-Image (T2I) models have demonstrated the ability to generate compelling text and visual stories. However, their outputs are predominantly aligned with the sensibilities of the Global North, often resulting in an outsider's gaze on other cultures. As a result, non-Western communities have to put extra effort into generating culturally specific stories. To address this challenge, we developed a visual storytelling pipeline called KAHANI that generates culturally grounded visual stories for non-Western cultures. Our pipeline leverages off-the-shelf models GPT-4 Turbo and Stable Diffusion XL (SDXL). By using Chain of Thought (CoT) and T2I prompting techniques, we capture the cultural context from user's prompt and generate vivid descriptions of the characters and scene compositions. To evaluate the effectiveness of KAHANI, we conducted a comparative user study with ChatGPT-4 (with DALL-E3) in which participants from different regions of India compared the cultural relevance of stories generated by the two tools. Results from the qualitative and quantitative analysis performed on the user study showed that KAHANI was able to capture and incorporate more Culturally Specific Items (CSIs) compared to ChatGPT-4. In terms of both its cultural competence and visual story generation quality, our pipeline outperformed ChatGPT-4 in 27 out of the 36 comparisons.

Instruction fine-tuning is crucial for today's large language models (LLMs) to learn to follow instructions and align with human preferences. Conventionally, supervised data, including the instruction and the correct response, is required for instruction fine-tuning. To obtain such data, some researchers prompted well-trained models like GPT-4 to generate instructions and correct responses. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that uses the first half of a random text from OpenWebText as the instruction and GPT-3.5-turbo or GPT-4-turbo to complete the text as the response. Despite the data being "non-instructional", we found that pre-trained LLMs fine-tuned on this data can gain instruction-following capabilities. This observation is verified by fine-tuning several well-known pre-trained LLMs (e.g., LLaMA-2-7B, LLaMA-3-8B, LLaMA-3-70B, Mistral-7B-v0.1). The "non-instructional data" also improved some models that underwent supervised fine-tuning and human preference alignment. Our LLaMA-3-70B-Instruct fine-tuned through "non-instructional data" is comparable with LLaMA-3.1-70B-Instruct on the Arena Hard leaderboard. We analyzed the "non-instructional data" and ensured it is devoid of content related to instruction fine-tuning. Our findings will inspire further investigation into how to develop instruction-following capabilities without explicit instruction-related data.

Safety lies at the core of the development of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is ample work on aligning LLMs with human ethics and preferences, including data filtering in pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning from human feedback, and red teaming, etc. In this study, we discover that chat in cipher can bypass the safety alignment techniques of LLMs, which are mainly conducted in natural languages. We propose a novel framework CipherChat to systematically examine the generalizability of safety alignment to non-natural languages -- ciphers. CipherChat enables humans to chat with LLMs through cipher prompts topped with system role descriptions and few-shot enciphered demonstrations. We use CipherChat to assess state-of-the-art LLMs, including ChatGPT and GPT-4 for different representative human ciphers across 11 safety domains in both English and Chinese. Experimental results show that certain ciphers succeed almost 100% of the time to bypass the safety alignment of GPT-4 in several safety domains, demonstrating the necessity of developing safety alignment for non-natural languages. Notably, we identify that LLMs seem to have a ''secret cipher'', and propose a novel SelfCipher that uses only role play and several demonstrations in natural language to evoke this capability. SelfCipher surprisingly outperforms existing human ciphers in almost all cases. Our code and data will be released at https://github.com/RobustNLP/CipherChat.

As large language models (LLMs) have increased in their capabilities, so does their potential for dual use. To reduce harmful outputs, produces and vendors of LLMs have used reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF). In tandem, LLM vendors have been increasingly enabling fine-tuning of their most powerful models. However, concurrent work has shown that fine-tuning can remove RLHF protections. We may expect that the most powerful models currently available (GPT-4) are less susceptible to fine-tuning attacks. In this work, we show the contrary: fine-tuning allows attackers to remove RLHF protections with as few as 340 examples and a 95% success rate. These training examples can be automatically generated with weaker models. We further show that removing RLHF protections does not decrease usefulness on non-censored outputs, providing evidence that our fine-tuning strategy does not decrease usefulness despite using weaker models to generate training data. Our results show the need for further research on protections on LLMs.

As large language models (LLMs) gain popularity among speakers of diverse languages, we believe that it is crucial to benchmark them to better understand model behaviors, failures, and limitations in languages beyond English. In this work, we evaluate LLM APIs (ChatGPT, GPT-3, and GPT-4) on the Japanese national medical licensing examinations from the past five years, including the current year. Our team comprises native Japanese-speaking NLP researchers and a practicing cardiologist based in Japan. Our experiments show that GPT-4 outperforms ChatGPT and GPT-3 and passes all six years of the exams, highlighting LLMs' potential in a language that is typologically distant from English. However, our evaluation also exposes critical limitations of the current LLM APIs. First, LLMs sometimes select prohibited choices that should be strictly avoided in medical practice in Japan, such as suggesting euthanasia. Further, our analysis shows that the API costs are generally higher and the maximum context size is smaller for Japanese because of the way non-Latin scripts are currently tokenized in the pipeline. We release our benchmark as Igaku QA as well as all model outputs and exam metadata. We hope that our results and benchmark will spur progress on more diverse applications of LLMs. Our benchmark is available at https://github.com/jungokasai/IgakuQA.

GPT-4o is an autoregressive omni model that accepts as input any combination of text, audio, image, and video, and generates any combination of text, audio, and image outputs. It's trained end-to-end across text, vision, and audio, meaning all inputs and outputs are processed by the same neural network. GPT-4o can respond to audio inputs in as little as 232 milliseconds, with an average of 320 milliseconds, which is similar to human response time in conversation. It matches GPT-4 Turbo performance on text in English and code, with significant improvement on text in non-English languages, while also being much faster and 50\% cheaper in the API. GPT-4o is especially better at vision and audio understanding compared to existing models. In line with our commitment to building AI safely and consistent with our voluntary commitments to the White House, we are sharing the GPT-4o System Card, which includes our Preparedness Framework evaluations. In this System Card, we provide a detailed look at GPT-4o's capabilities, limitations, and safety evaluations across multiple categories, focusing on speech-to-speech while also evaluating text and image capabilities, and measures we've implemented to ensure the model is safe and aligned. We also include third-party assessments on dangerous capabilities, as well as discussion of potential societal impacts of GPT-4o's text and vision capabilities.

The remarkable capabilities and intricate nature of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have dramatically escalated the imperative for specialized AI accelerators. Nonetheless, designing these accelerators for various AI workloads remains both labor- and time-intensive. While existing design exploration and automation tools can partially alleviate the need for extensive human involvement, they still demand substantial hardware expertise, posing a barrier to non-experts and stifling AI accelerator development. Motivated by the astonishing potential of large language models (LLMs) for generating high-quality content in response to human language instructions, we embark on this work to examine the possibility of harnessing LLMs to automate AI accelerator design. Through this endeavor, we develop GPT4AIGChip, a framework intended to democratize AI accelerator design by leveraging human natural languages instead of domain-specific languages. Specifically, we first perform an in-depth investigation into LLMs' limitations and capabilities for AI accelerator design, thus aiding our understanding of our current position and garnering insights into LLM-powered automated AI accelerator design. Furthermore, drawing inspiration from the above insights, we develop a framework called GPT4AIGChip, which features an automated demo-augmented prompt-generation pipeline utilizing in-context learning to guide LLMs towards creating high-quality AI accelerator design. To our knowledge, this work is the first to demonstrate an effective pipeline for LLM-powered automated AI accelerator generation. Accordingly, we anticipate that our insights and framework can serve as a catalyst for innovations in next-generation LLM-powered design automation tools.

In this paper, we evaluate different abilities of GPT-4V including visual understanding, language understanding, visual puzzle solving, and understanding of other modalities such as depth, thermal, video, and audio. To estimate GPT-4V's performance, we manually construct 656 test instances and carefully evaluate the results of GPT-4V. The highlights of our findings are as follows: (1) GPT-4V exhibits impressive performance on English visual-centric benchmarks but fails to recognize simple Chinese texts in the images; (2) GPT-4V shows inconsistent refusal behavior when answering questions related to sensitive traits such as gender, race, and age; (3) GPT-4V obtains worse results than GPT-4 (API) on language understanding tasks including general language understanding benchmarks and visual commonsense knowledge evaluation benchmarks; (4) Few-shot prompting can improve GPT-4V's performance on both visual understanding and language understanding; (5) GPT-4V struggles to find the nuances between two similar images and solve the easy math picture puzzles; (6) GPT-4V shows non-trivial performance on the tasks of similar modalities to image, such as video and thermal. Our experimental results reveal the ability and limitations of GPT-4V and we hope our paper can provide some insights into the application and research of GPT-4V.

Obtaining text datasets with semantic annotations is an effortful process, yet crucial for supervised training in natural language processsing (NLP). In general, developing and applying new NLP pipelines in domain-specific contexts for tasks often requires custom designed datasets to address NLP tasks in supervised machine learning fashion. When operating in non-English languages for medical data processing, this exposes several minor and major, interconnected problems such as lack of task-matching datasets as well as task-specific pre-trained models. In our work we suggest to leverage pretrained language models for training data acquisition in order to retrieve sufficiently large datasets for training smaller and more efficient models for use-case specific tasks. To demonstrate the effectiveness of your approach, we create a custom dataset which we use to train a medical NER model for German texts, GPTNERMED, yet our method remains language-independent in principle. Our obtained dataset as well as our pre-trained models are publicly available at: https://github.com/frankkramer-lab/GPTNERMED

Current evaluations of large language models (LLMs) often overlook non-determinism, typically focusing on a single output per example. This limits our understanding of LLM performance variability in real-world applications. Our study addresses this issue by exploring key questions about the performance differences between greedy decoding and sampling, identifying benchmarks' consistency regarding non-determinism, and examining unique model behaviors. Through extensive experiments, we observe that greedy decoding generally outperforms sampling methods for most evaluated tasks. We also observe consistent performance across different LLM sizes and alignment methods, noting that alignment can reduce sampling variance. Moreover, our best-of-N sampling approach demonstrates that smaller LLMs can match or surpass larger models such as GPT-4-Turbo, highlighting the untapped potential of smaller LLMs. This research shows the importance of considering non-determinism in LLM evaluations and provides insights for future LLM development and evaluation.

Large pre-trained language models have shown promise for few-shot learning, completing text-based tasks given only a few task-specific examples. Will models soon solve classification tasks that have so far been reserved for human research assistants? Existing benchmarks are not designed to measure progress in applied settings, and so don't directly answer this question. The RAFT benchmark (Real-world Annotated Few-shot Tasks) focuses on naturally occurring tasks and uses an evaluation setup that mirrors deployment. Baseline evaluations on RAFT reveal areas current techniques struggle with: reasoning over long texts and tasks with many classes. Human baselines show that some classification tasks are difficult for non-expert humans, reflecting that real-world value sometimes depends on domain expertise. Yet even non-expert human baseline F1 scores exceed GPT-3 by an average of 0.11. The RAFT datasets and leaderboard will track which model improvements translate into real-world benefits at https://raft.elicit.org .

The development and popularization of large language models (LLMs) have raised concerns that they will be used to create tailor-made, convincing arguments to push false or misleading narratives online. Early work has found that language models can generate content perceived as at least on par and often more persuasive than human-written messages. However, there is still limited knowledge about LLMs' persuasive capabilities in direct conversations with human counterparts and how personalization can improve their performance. In this pre-registered study, we analyze the effect of AI-driven persuasion in a controlled, harmless setting. We create a web-based platform where participants engage in short, multiple-round debates with a live opponent. Each participant is randomly assigned to one of four treatment conditions, corresponding to a two-by-two factorial design: (1) Games are either played between two humans or between a human and an LLM; (2) Personalization might or might not be enabled, granting one of the two players access to basic sociodemographic information about their opponent. We found that participants who debated GPT-4 with access to their personal information had 81.7% (p < 0.01; N=820 unique participants) higher odds of increased agreement with their opponents compared to participants who debated humans. Without personalization, GPT-4 still outperforms humans, but the effect is lower and statistically non-significant (p=0.31). Overall, our results suggest that concerns around personalization are meaningful and have important implications for the governance of social media and the design of new online environments.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) grounds large language model (LLM) output by leveraging external knowledge sources to reduce factual hallucinations. However, prior works lack a comprehensive evaluation of different language families, making it challenging to evaluate LLM robustness against errors in external retrieved knowledge. To overcome this, we establish NoMIRACL, a human-annotated dataset for evaluating LLM robustness in RAG across 18 typologically diverse languages. NoMIRACL includes both a non-relevant and a relevant subset. Queries in the non-relevant subset contain passages manually judged as non-relevant or noisy, whereas queries in the relevant subset include at least a single judged relevant passage. We measure LLM robustness using two metrics: (i) hallucination rate, measuring model tendency to hallucinate an answer, when the answer is not present in passages in the non-relevant subset, and (ii) error rate, measuring model inaccuracy to recognize relevant passages in the relevant subset. We build a GPT-4 baseline which achieves a 33.2% hallucination rate on the non-relevant and a 14.9% error rate on the relevant subset on average. Our evaluation reveals that GPT-4 hallucinates frequently in high-resource languages, such as French or English. This work highlights an important avenue for future research to improve LLM robustness to learn how to better reject non-relevant information in RAG.

Annotation and classification of legal text are central components of empirical legal research. Traditionally, these tasks are often delegated to trained research assistants. Motivated by the advances in language modeling, empirical legal scholars are increasingly turning to prompting commercial models, hoping that it will alleviate the significant cost of human annotation. Despite growing use, our understanding of how to best utilize large language models for legal tasks remains limited. We conduct a comprehensive study of 260 legal text classification tasks, nearly all new to the machine learning community. Starting from GPT-4 as a baseline, we show that it has non-trivial but highly varied zero-shot accuracy, often exhibiting performance that may be insufficient for legal work. We then demonstrate that a lightly fine-tuned Llama 3 model vastly outperforms GPT-4 on almost all tasks, typically by double-digit percentage points. We find that larger models respond better to fine-tuning than smaller models. A few tens to hundreds of examples suffice to achieve high classification accuracy. Notably, we can fine-tune a single model on all 260 tasks simultaneously at a small loss in accuracy relative to having a separate model for each task. Our work points to a viable alternative to the predominant practice of prompting commercial models. For concrete legal tasks with some available labeled data, researchers are better off using a fine-tuned open-source model.

We present the ShareGPT4Video series, aiming to facilitate the video understanding of large video-language models (LVLMs) and the video generation of text-to-video models (T2VMs) via dense and precise captions. The series comprises: 1) ShareGPT4Video, 40K GPT4V annotated dense captions of videos with various lengths and sources, developed through carefully designed data filtering and annotating strategy. 2) ShareCaptioner-Video, an efficient and capable captioning model for arbitrary videos, with 4.8M high-quality aesthetic videos annotated by it. 3) ShareGPT4Video-8B, a simple yet superb LVLM that reached SOTA performance on three advancing video benchmarks. To achieve this, taking aside the non-scalable costly human annotators, we find using GPT4V to caption video with a naive multi-frame or frame-concatenation input strategy leads to less detailed and sometimes temporal-confused results. We argue the challenge of designing a high-quality video captioning strategy lies in three aspects: 1) Inter-frame precise temporal change understanding. 2) Intra-frame detailed content description. 3) Frame-number scalability for arbitrary-length videos. To this end, we meticulously designed a differential video captioning strategy, which is stable, scalable, and efficient for generating captions for videos with arbitrary resolution, aspect ratios, and length. Based on it, we construct ShareGPT4Video, which contains 40K high-quality videos spanning a wide range of categories, and the resulting captions encompass rich world knowledge, object attributes, camera movements, and crucially, detailed and precise temporal descriptions of events. Based on ShareGPT4Video, we further develop ShareCaptioner-Video, a superior captioner capable of efficiently generating high-quality captions for arbitrary videos...

GPT-3 shows remarkable in-context learning ability of large-scale language models (LMs) trained on hundreds of billion scale data. Here we address some remaining issues less reported by the GPT-3 paper, such as a non-English LM, the performances of different sized models, and the effect of recently introduced prompt optimization on in-context learning. To achieve this, we introduce HyperCLOVA, a Korean variant of 82B GPT-3 trained on a Korean-centric corpus of 560B tokens. Enhanced by our Korean-specific tokenization, HyperCLOVA with our training configuration shows state-of-the-art in-context zero-shot and few-shot learning performances on various downstream tasks in Korean. Also, we show the performance benefits of prompt-based learning and demonstrate how it can be integrated into the prompt engineering pipeline. Then we discuss the possibility of materializing the No Code AI paradigm by providing AI prototyping capabilities to non-experts of ML by introducing HyperCLOVA studio, an interactive prompt engineering interface. Lastly, we demonstrate the potential of our methods with three successful in-house applications.

Artificial writing is permeating our lives due to recent advances in large-scale, transformer-based language models (LMs) such as BERT, its variants, GPT-2/3, and others. Using them as pre-trained models and fine-tuning them for specific tasks, researchers have extended state of the art for many NLP tasks and shown that they capture not only linguistic knowledge but also retain general knowledge implicitly present in the data. Unfortunately, LMs trained on unfiltered text corpora suffer from degenerated and biased behaviour. While this is well established, we show that recent LMs also contain human-like biases of what is right and wrong to do, some form of ethical and moral norms of the society -- they bring a "moral direction" to surface. That is, we show that these norms can be captured geometrically by a direction, which can be computed, e.g., by a PCA, in the embedding space, reflecting well the agreement of phrases to social norms implicitly expressed in the training texts and providing a path for attenuating or even preventing toxic degeneration in LMs. Being able to rate the (non-)normativity of arbitrary phrases without explicitly training the LM for this task, we demonstrate the capabilities of the "moral direction" for guiding (even other) LMs towards producing normative text and showcase it on RealToxicityPrompts testbed, preventing the neural toxic degeneration in GPT-2.

We study whether transformers can learn to implicitly reason over parametric knowledge, a skill that even the most capable language models struggle with. Focusing on two representative reasoning types, composition and comparison, we consistently find that transformers can learn implicit reasoning, but only through grokking, i.e., extended training far beyond overfitting. The levels of generalization also vary across reasoning types: when faced with out-of-distribution examples, transformers fail to systematically generalize for composition but succeed for comparison. We delve into the model's internals throughout training, conducting analytical experiments that reveal: 1) the mechanism behind grokking, such as the formation of the generalizing circuit and its relation to the relative efficiency of generalizing and memorizing circuits, and 2) the connection between systematicity and the configuration of the generalizing circuit. Our findings guide data and training setup to better induce implicit reasoning and suggest potential improvements to the transformer architecture, such as encouraging cross-layer knowledge sharing. Furthermore, we demonstrate that for a challenging reasoning task with a large search space, GPT-4-Turbo and Gemini-1.5-Pro based on non-parametric memory fail badly regardless of prompting styles or retrieval augmentation, while a fully grokked transformer can achieve near-perfect accuracy, showcasing the power of parametric memory for complex reasoning.

The success of large language models (LLMs) has prompted efforts to integrate speech and audio data, aiming to create general foundation models capable of processing both textual and non-textual inputs. Recent advances, such as GPT-4o, highlight the potential for end-to-end speech LLMs, which preserves non-semantic information and world knowledge for deeper speech understanding. To guide the development of speech LLMs, we propose a five-level roadmap, ranging from basic automatic speech recognition (ASR) to advanced superhuman models capable of integrating non-semantic information with abstract acoustic knowledge for complex tasks. Moreover, we design a benchmark, SAGI Bechmark, that standardizes critical aspects across various tasks in these five levels, uncovering challenges in using abstract acoustic knowledge and completeness of capability. Our findings reveal gaps in handling paralinguistic cues and abstract acoustic knowledge, and we offer future directions. This paper outlines a roadmap for advancing speech LLMs, introduces a benchmark for evaluation, and provides key insights into their current limitations and potential.

Recent work has demonstrated substantial gains on many NLP tasks and benchmarks by pre-training on a large corpus of text followed by fine-tuning on a specific task. While typically task-agnostic in architecture, this method still requires task-specific fine-tuning datasets of thousands or tens of thousands of examples. By contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions - something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Here we show that scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art fine-tuning approaches. Specifically, we train GPT-3, an autoregressive language model with 175 billion parameters, 10x more than any previous non-sparse language model, and test its performance in the few-shot setting. For all tasks, GPT-3 is applied without any gradient updates or fine-tuning, with tasks and few-shot demonstrations specified purely via text interaction with the model. GPT-3 achieves strong performance on many NLP datasets, including translation, question-answering, and cloze tasks, as well as several tasks that require on-the-fly reasoning or domain adaptation, such as unscrambling words, using a novel word in a sentence, or performing 3-digit arithmetic. At the same time, we also identify some datasets where GPT-3's few-shot learning still struggles, as well as some datasets where GPT-3 faces methodological issues related to training on large web corpora. Finally, we find that GPT-3 can generate samples of news articles which human evaluators have difficulty distinguishing from articles written by humans. We discuss broader societal impacts of this finding and of GPT-3 in general.

This paper presents a simple and cost-effective method for synthesizing data to train question-answering systems. For training, fine-tuning GPT models is a common practice in resource-rich languages like English, however, it becomes challenging for non-English languages due to the scarcity of sufficient question-answer (QA) pairs. Existing approaches use question and answer generators trained on human-authored QA pairs, which involves substantial human expenses. In contrast, we use an instruct-tuned model to generate QA pairs in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. We conduct experiments to compare various strategies for obtaining QA pairs from the instruct-tuned model. The results demonstrate that a model trained on our proposed synthetic data achieves comparable performance to a model trained on manually curated datasets, without incurring human costs.

The pretraining data of today's strongest language models is opaque. In particular, little is known about the proportions of various domains or languages represented. In this work, we tackle a task which we call data mixture inference, which aims to uncover the distributional make-up of training data. We introduce a novel attack based on a previously overlooked source of information -- byte-pair encoding (BPE) tokenizers, used by the vast majority of modern language models. Our key insight is that the ordered list of merge rules learned by a BPE tokenizer naturally reveals information about the token frequencies in its training data: the first merge is the most common byte pair, the second is the most common pair after merging the first token, and so on. Given a tokenizer's merge list along with data samples for each category of interest, we formulate a linear program that solves for the proportion of each category in the tokenizer's training set. Importantly, to the extent to which tokenizer training data is representative of the pretraining data, we indirectly learn about the pretraining data. In controlled experiments, we show that our attack recovers mixture ratios with high precision for tokenizers trained on known mixtures of natural languages, programming languages, and data sources. We then apply our approach to off-the-shelf tokenizers released with recent LMs. We confirm much publicly disclosed information about these models, and also make several new inferences: GPT-4o's tokenizer is much more multilingual than its predecessors, training on 39% non-English data; Llama3 extends GPT-3.5's tokenizer primarily for multilingual (48%) use; GPT-3.5's and Claude's tokenizers are trained on predominantly code (~60%). We hope our work sheds light on current design practices for pretraining data, and inspires continued research into data mixture inference for LMs.

Transformers have revolutionized machine learning, yet their inner workings remain opaque to many. We present Transformer Explainer, an interactive visualization tool designed for non-experts to learn about Transformers through the GPT-2 model. Our tool helps users understand complex Transformer concepts by integrating a model overview and enabling smooth transitions across abstraction levels of mathematical operations and model structures. It runs a live GPT-2 instance locally in the user's browser, empowering users to experiment with their own input and observe in real-time how the internal components and parameters of the Transformer work together to predict the next tokens. Our tool requires no installation or special hardware, broadening the public's education access to modern generative AI techniques. Our open-sourced tool is available at https://poloclub.github.io/transformer-explainer/. A video demo is available at https://youtu.be/ECR4oAwocjs.

Although large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive proficiency in various tasks, they present potential safety risks, such as `jailbreaks', where malicious inputs can coerce LLMs into generating harmful content. To address these issues, many LLM developers have implemented various safety measures to align these models. This alignment involves several techniques, including data filtering during pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning from human feedback, and red-teaming exercises. These methods often introduce deliberate and intentional biases similar to Political Correctness (PC) to ensure the ethical behavior of LLMs. In this paper, we delve into the intentional biases injected into LLMs for safety purposes and examine methods to circumvent these safety alignment techniques. Notably, these intentional biases result in a jailbreaking success rate in GPT-4o models that differs by 20% between non-binary and cisgender keywords and by 16% between white and black keywords, even when the other parts of the prompts are identical. We introduce the concept of PCJailbreak, highlighting the inherent risks posed by these safety-induced biases. Additionally, we propose an efficient defense method PCDefense, which prevents jailbreak attempts by injecting defense prompts prior to generation. PCDefense stands as an appealing alternative to Guard Models, such as Llama-Guard, that require additional inference cost after text generation. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for LLM developers to adopt a more responsible approach when designing and implementing safety measures.

Despite the existence of various benchmarks for evaluating natural language processing models, we argue that human exams are a more suitable means of evaluating general intelligence for large language models (LLMs), as they inherently demand a much wider range of abilities such as language understanding, domain knowledge, and problem-solving skills. To this end, we introduce M3Exam, a novel benchmark sourced from real and official human exam questions for evaluating LLMs in a multilingual, multimodal, and multilevel context. M3Exam exhibits three unique characteristics: (1) multilingualism, encompassing questions from multiple countries that require strong multilingual proficiency and cultural knowledge; (2) multimodality, accounting for the multimodal nature of many exam questions to test the model's multimodal understanding capability; and (3) multilevel structure, featuring exams from three critical educational periods to comprehensively assess a model's proficiency at different levels. In total, M3Exam contains 12,317 questions in 9 diverse languages with three educational levels, where about 23\% of the questions require processing images for successful solving. We assess the performance of top-performing LLMs on M3Exam and find that current models, including GPT-4, still struggle with multilingual text, particularly in low-resource and non-Latin script languages. Multimodal LLMs also perform poorly with complex multimodal questions. We believe that M3Exam can be a valuable resource for comprehensively evaluating LLMs by examining their multilingual and multimodal abilities and tracking their development. Data and evaluation code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/M3Exam.

Machine learning models are increasingly being scaled in both sequence length and model dimension to reach longer contexts and better performance. However, existing architectures such as Transformers scale quadratically along both these axes. We ask: are there performant architectures that can scale sub-quadratically along sequence length and model dimension? We introduce Monarch Mixer (M2), a new architecture that uses the same sub-quadratic primitive along both sequence length and model dimension: Monarch matrices, a simple class of expressive structured matrices that captures many linear transforms, achieves high hardware efficiency on GPUs, and scales sub-quadratically. As a proof of concept, we explore the performance of M2 in three domains: non-causal BERT-style language modeling, ViT-style image classification, and causal GPT-style language modeling. For non-causal BERT-style modeling, M2 matches BERT-base and BERT-large in downstream GLUE quality with up to 27% fewer parameters, and achieves up to 9.1times higher throughput at sequence length 4K. On ImageNet, M2 outperforms ViT-b by 1% in accuracy, with only half the parameters. Causal GPT-style models introduce a technical challenge: enforcing causality via masking introduces a quadratic bottleneck. To alleviate this bottleneck, we develop a novel theoretical view of Monarch matrices based on multivariate polynomial evaluation and interpolation, which lets us parameterize M2 to be causal while remaining sub-quadratic. Using this parameterization, M2 matches GPT-style Transformers at 360M parameters in pretraining perplexity on The PILE--showing for the first time that it may be possible to match Transformer quality without attention or MLPs.

Recent work has considered whether large language models (LLMs) can function as planners: given a task, generate a plan. We investigate whether LLMs can serve as generalized planners: given a domain and training tasks, generate a program that efficiently produces plans for other tasks in the domain. In particular, we consider PDDL domains and use GPT-4 to synthesize Python programs. We also consider (1) Chain-of-Thought (CoT) summarization, where the LLM is prompted to summarize the domain and propose a strategy in words before synthesizing the program; and (2) automated debugging, where the program is validated with respect to the training tasks, and in case of errors, the LLM is re-prompted with four types of feedback. We evaluate this approach in seven PDDL domains and compare it to four ablations and four baselines. Overall, we find that GPT-4 is a surprisingly powerful generalized planner. We also conclude that automated debugging is very important, that CoT summarization has non-uniform impact, that GPT-4 is far superior to GPT-3.5, and that just two training tasks are often sufficient for strong generalization.

If machine learning models were to achieve superhuman abilities at various reasoning or decision-making tasks, how would we go about evaluating such models, given that humans would necessarily be poor proxies for ground truth? In this paper, we propose a framework for evaluating superhuman models via consistency checks. Our premise is that while the correctness of superhuman decisions may be impossible to evaluate, we can still surface mistakes if the model's decisions fail to satisfy certain logical, human-interpretable rules. We instantiate our framework on three tasks where correctness of decisions is hard to evaluate due to either superhuman model abilities, or to otherwise missing ground truth: evaluating chess positions, forecasting future events, and making legal judgments. We show that regardless of a model's (possibly superhuman) performance on these tasks, we can discover logical inconsistencies in decision making. For example: a chess engine assigning opposing valuations to semantically identical boards; GPT-4 forecasting that sports records will evolve non-monotonically over time; or an AI judge assigning bail to a defendant only after we add a felony to their criminal record.

The recent advances in language modeling significantly improved the generative capabilities of deep neural models: in 2019 OpenAI released GPT-2, a pre-trained language model that can autonomously generate coherent, non-trivial and human-like text samples. Since then, ever more powerful text generative models have been developed. Adversaries can exploit these tremendous generative capabilities to enhance social bots that will have the ability to write plausible deepfake messages, hoping to contaminate public debate. To prevent this, it is crucial to develop deepfake social media messages detection systems. However, to the best of our knowledge no one has ever addressed the detection of machine-generated texts on social networks like Twitter or Facebook. With the aim of helping the research in this detection field, we collected the first dataset of \real deepfake tweets, TweepFake. It is real in the sense that each deepfake tweet was actually posted on Twitter. We collected tweets from a total of 23 bots, imitating 17 human accounts. The bots are based on various generation techniques, i.e., Markov Chains, RNN, RNN+Markov, LSTM, GPT-2. We also randomly selected tweets from the humans imitated by the bots to have an overall balanced dataset of 25,572 tweets (half human and half bots generated). The dataset is publicly available on Kaggle. Lastly, we evaluated 13 deepfake text detection methods (based on various state-of-the-art approaches) to both demonstrate the challenges that Tweepfake poses and create a solid baseline of detection techniques. We hope that TweepFake can offer the opportunity to tackle the deepfake detection on social media messages as well.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as dominant tools for various tasks, particularly when tailored for a specific target by prompt tuning. Nevertheless, concerns surrounding data privacy present obstacles due to the tuned prompts' dependency on sensitive private information. A practical solution is to host a local LLM and optimize a soft prompt privately using data. Yet, hosting a local model becomes problematic when model ownership is protected. Alternative methods, like sending data to the model's provider for training, intensify these privacy issues facing an untrusted provider. In this paper, we present a novel solution called Differentially-Private Offsite Prompt Tuning (DP-OPT) to address this challenge. Our approach involves tuning a discrete prompt on the client side and then applying it to the desired cloud models. We demonstrate that prompts suggested by LLMs themselves can be transferred without compromising performance significantly. To ensure that the prompts do not leak private information, we introduce the first private prompt generation mechanism, by a differentially-private (DP) ensemble of in-context learning with private demonstrations. With DP-OPT, generating privacy-preserving prompts by Vicuna-7b can yield competitive performance compared to non-private in-context learning on GPT3.5 or local private prompt tuning. Codes are available at https://github.com/VITA-Group/DP-OPT .

Quantization has become a crucial step for the efficient deployment of deep neural networks, where floating point operations are converted to simpler fixed point operations. In its most naive form, it simply consists in a combination of scaling and rounding transformations, leading to either a limited compression rate or a significant accuracy drop. Recently, Gradient-based post-training quantization (GPTQ) methods appears to be constitute a suitable trade-off between such simple methods and more powerful, yet expensive Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) approaches, particularly when attempting to quantize LLMs, where scalability of the quantization process is of paramount importance. GPTQ essentially consists in learning the rounding operation using a small calibration set. In this work, we challenge common choices in GPTQ methods. In particular, we show that the process is, to a certain extent, robust to a number of variables (weight selection, feature augmentation, choice of calibration set). More importantly, we derive a number of best practices for designing more efficient and scalable GPTQ methods, regarding the problem formulation (loss, degrees of freedom, use of non-uniform quantization schemes) or optimization process (choice of variable and optimizer). Lastly, we propose a novel importance-based mixed-precision technique. Those guidelines lead to significant performance improvements on all the tested state-of-the-art GPTQ methods and networks (e.g. +6.819 points on ViT for 4-bit quantization), paving the way for the design of scalable, yet effective quantization methods.

Increasing test-time compute for LLMs shows promise across domains but remains underexplored in code generation, despite extensive study in math. In this paper, we propose S*, the first hybrid test-time scaling framework that substantially improves the coverage and selection accuracy of generated code. S* extends the existing parallel scaling paradigm with sequential scaling to push performance boundaries. It further leverages a novel selection mechanism that adaptively generates distinguishing inputs for pairwise comparison, combined with execution-grounded information to robustly identify correct solutions. We evaluate across 12 Large Language Models and Large Reasoning Model and show: (1) S* consistently improves performance across model families and sizes, enabling a 3B model to outperform GPT-4o-mini; (2) S* enables non-reasoning models to surpass reasoning models - GPT-4o-mini with S* outperforms o1-preview by 3.7% on LiveCodeBench; (3) S* further boosts state-of-the-art reasoning models - DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B with S* achieves 85.7% on LiveCodeBench, approaching o1 (high) at 88.5%. Code will be available under https://github.com/NovaSky-AI/SkyThought.

We analyze how well pre-trained large language models (e.g., Llama2, GPT-4, Claude 3, etc) can do linear and non-linear regression when given in-context examples, without any additional training or gradient updates. Our findings reveal that several large language models (e.g., GPT-4, Claude 3) are able to perform regression tasks with a performance rivaling (or even outperforming) that of traditional supervised methods such as Random Forest, Bagging, or Gradient Boosting. For example, on the challenging Friedman #2 regression dataset, Claude 3 outperforms many supervised methods such as AdaBoost, SVM, Random Forest, KNN, or Gradient Boosting. We then investigate how well the performance of large language models scales with the number of in-context exemplars. We borrow from the notion of regret from online learning and empirically show that LLMs are capable of obtaining a sub-linear regret.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in proving formal theorems using proof assistants such as Lean. However, existing methods are difficult to reproduce or build on, due to private code, data, and large compute requirements. This has created substantial barriers to research on machine learning methods for theorem proving. This paper removes these barriers by introducing LeanDojo: an open-source Lean playground consisting of toolkits, data, models, and benchmarks. LeanDojo extracts data from Lean and enables interaction with the proof environment programmatically. It contains fine-grained annotations of premises in proofs, providing valuable data for premise selection: a key bottleneck in theorem proving. Using this data, we develop ReProver (Retrieval-Augmented Prover): the first LLM-based prover that is augmented with retrieval for selecting premises from a vast math library. It is inexpensive and needs only one GPU week of training. Our retriever leverages LeanDojo's program analysis capability to identify accessible premises and hard negative examples, which makes retrieval much more effective. Furthermore, we construct a new benchmark consisting of 96,962 theorems and proofs extracted from Lean's math library. It features challenging data split requiring the prover to generalize to theorems relying on novel premises that are never used in training. We use this benchmark for training and evaluation, and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of ReProver over non-retrieval baselines and GPT-4. We thus provide the first set of open-source LLM-based theorem provers without any proprietary datasets and release it under a permissive MIT license to facilitate further research.

Instruction fine-tuning pretrained LLMs for diverse downstream tasks has demonstrated remarkable success and has captured the interest of both academics and practitioners. To ensure such fine-tuned LLMs align with human preferences, techniques such as RLHF and DPO have emerged. At the same time, there is increasing interest in smaller parameter counts for models. In this work, using OpenLLaMA 3Bv2 as a base model, we describe the recipe used to fine-tune the OpenBezoar family of models. In this recipe: We first generate synthetic instruction fine-tuning data using an open and commercially non-restrictive instruction fine-tuned variant of the Falcon-40B model under three schemes based on: LaMini-LM, WizardLM/Evol-Instruct (with databricks-dolly-15k as a seed dataset) and Orca (with the Flan Collection as a seed dataset), then filter these generations using GPT-4 as a human proxy. We then perform cost-effective QLoRA-based supervised fine-tuning sequentially with each scheme. The resulting checkpoint is further fine-tuned with a subset of the HH-RLHF dataset to minimize distribution shift prior to using the DPO loss to obtain the final checkpoint. Evaluation is done with the LM Eval Harness tasks/metrics as well as on MT-Bench using the "LLM-as-a-judge" framework with Claude 2.1, with the finding that the final checkpoint, "OpenBezoar-HH-RLHF-DPO", demonstrates superior performance over many models at the 3B parameter scale, even outperforming the top model in one of the categories on the Huggingface Open LLM Leaderboard. We release "OpenBezoar-SFT", "OpenBezoar-HH-RLHF-SFT", "OpenBezoar-HH-RLHF-DPO" checkpoints, alongside our generated datasets on HuggingFace at https://huggingface.co/collections/SurgeGlobal/open-bezoar-6620a24923e12127e9e2b9cc and our codebase at https://bitbucket.org/paladinanalytics/workspace/projects/OP.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have achieved state-of-the-art results in various biological sequence analysis tasks, such as sequence classification, structure prediction, and function prediction. Similar to advancements in AI for other scientific fields, deeper research into biological LLMs has begun to focus on using these models to rediscover important existing biological laws or uncover entirely new patterns in biological sequences.This study leverages GPT-like LLMs to utilize language transfer capabilities to rediscover the genetic code rules of the central dogma. In our experimental design, we transformed the central dogma into a binary classification problem of aligning DNA sequences with protein sequences, where positive examples are matching DNA and protein sequences, and negative examples are non-matching pairs.We first trained a GPT-2 model from scratch using a dataset comprising protein sequences, DNA sequences, and sequences from languages such as English and Chinese. Subsequently, we fine-tuned the model using the English similarity judgment dataset from PAWS-X. When tested on a dataset for DNA and protein sequence alignment judgment, the fine-tuned model achieved a classification accuracy of 76%. The study also analyzed factors contributing to this zero-shot capability, including model training stability and types of training data.This research demonstrates that LLMs can, through the transfer of natural language capabilities and solely relying on the analysis of sequences themselves, rediscover the central dogma without prior knowledge of it. This study opens a new door for AI-driven biological research.

Self-evaluation using large language models (LLMs) has proven valuable not only in benchmarking but also methods like reward modeling, constitutional AI, and self-refinement. But new biases are introduced due to the same LLM acting as both the evaluator and the evaluatee. One such bias is self-preference, where an LLM evaluator scores its own outputs higher than others' while human annotators consider them of equal quality. But do LLMs actually recognize their own outputs when they give those texts higher scores, or is it just a coincidence? In this paper, we investigate if self-recognition capability contributes to self-preference. We discover that, out of the box, LLMs such as GPT-4 and Llama 2 have non-trivial accuracy at distinguishing themselves from other LLMs and humans. By fine-tuning LLMs, we discover a linear correlation between self-recognition capability and the strength of self-preference bias; using controlled experiments, we show that the causal explanation resists straightforward confounders. We discuss how self-recognition can interfere with unbiased evaluations and AI safety more generally.

Using vision-language models (VLMs) as reward models in reinforcement learning holds promise for reducing costs and improving safety. So far, VLM reward models have only been used for goal-oriented tasks, where the agent must reach a particular final outcome. We explore VLMs' potential to supervise tasks that cannot be scored by the final state alone. To this end, we introduce ViSTa, a dataset for evaluating Vision-based understanding of Sequential Tasks. ViSTa comprises over 4,000 videos with step-by-step descriptions in virtual home, Minecraft, and real-world environments. Its novel hierarchical structure -- basic single-step tasks composed into more and more complex sequential tasks -- allows a fine-grained understanding of how well VLMs can judge tasks with varying complexity. To illustrate this, we use ViSTa to evaluate state-of-the-art VLMs, including CLIP, ViCLIP, and GPT-4o. We find that, while they are all good at object recognition, they fail to understand sequential tasks, with only GPT-4o achieving non-trivial performance.

The commercialization of large language models (LLMs) has led to the common practice of high-level API-only access to proprietary models. In this work, we show that even with a conservative assumption about the model architecture, it is possible to learn a surprisingly large amount of non-public information about an API-protected LLM from a relatively small number of API queries (e.g., costing under $1,000 for OpenAI's gpt-3.5-turbo). Our findings are centered on one key observation: most modern LLMs suffer from a softmax bottleneck, which restricts the model outputs to a linear subspace of the full output space. We show that this lends itself to a model image or a model signature which unlocks several capabilities with affordable cost: efficiently discovering the LLM's hidden size, obtaining full-vocabulary outputs, detecting and disambiguating different model updates, identifying the source LLM given a single full LLM output, and even estimating the output layer parameters. Our empirical investigations show the effectiveness of our methods, which allow us to estimate the embedding size of OpenAI's gpt-3.5-turbo to be about 4,096. Lastly, we discuss ways that LLM providers can guard against these attacks, as well as how these capabilities can be viewed as a feature (rather than a bug) by allowing for greater transparency and accountability.

The recent advent of large language models has reinvigorated debate over whether human cognitive capacities might emerge in such generic models given sufficient training data. Of particular interest is the ability of these models to reason about novel problems zero-shot, without any direct training. In human cognition, this capacity is closely tied to an ability to reason by analogy. Here, we performed a direct comparison between human reasoners and a large language model (the text-davinci-003 variant of GPT-3) on a range of analogical tasks, including a non-visual matrix reasoning task based on the rule structure of Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices. We found that GPT-3 displayed a surprisingly strong capacity for abstract pattern induction, matching or even surpassing human capabilities in most settings; preliminary tests of GPT-4 indicated even better performance. Our results indicate that large language models such as GPT-3 have acquired an emergent ability to find zero-shot solutions to a broad range of analogy problems.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.