Daily Papers

Recent psycholinguistic studies have drawn conflicting conclusions about the relationship between the quality of a language model and the ability of its surprisal estimates to predict human reading times, which has been speculated to be due to the large gap in both the amount of training data and model capacity across studies. The current work aims to consolidate these findings by evaluating surprisal estimates from Transformer-based language model variants that vary systematically in the amount of training data and model capacity on their ability to predict human reading times. The results show that surprisal estimates from most variants with contemporary model capacities provide the best fit after seeing about two billion training tokens, after which they begin to diverge from humanlike expectations. Additionally, newly-trained smaller model variants reveal a 'tipping point' at convergence, after which the decrease in language model perplexity begins to result in poorer fits to human reading times. These results suggest that the massive amount of training data is mainly responsible for the poorer fit achieved by surprisal from larger pre-trained language models, and that a certain degree of model capacity is necessary for Transformer-based language models to capture humanlike expectations.

Quantizing large language models has become a standard way to reduce their memory and computational costs. Typically, existing methods focus on breaking down the problem into individual layer-wise sub-problems, and minimizing per-layer error, measured via various metrics. Yet, this approach currently lacks theoretical justification and the metrics employed may be sub-optimal. In this paper, we present a "linearity theorem" establishing a direct relationship between the layer-wise ell_2 reconstruction error and the model perplexity increase due to quantization. This insight enables two novel applications: (1) a simple data-free LLM quantization method using Hadamard rotations and MSE-optimal grids, dubbed HIGGS, which outperforms all prior data-free approaches such as the extremely popular NF4 quantized format, and (2) an optimal solution to the problem of finding non-uniform per-layer quantization levels which match a given compression constraint in the medium-bitwidth regime, obtained by reduction to dynamic programming. On the practical side, we demonstrate improved accuracy-compression trade-offs on Llama-3.1 and 3.2-family models, as well as on Qwen-family models. Further, we show that our method can be efficiently supported in terms of GPU kernels at various batch sizes, advancing both data-free and non-uniform quantization for LLMs.

Recent studies report that autoregressive language models can successfully solve many NLP tasks via zero- and few-shot learning paradigms, which opens up new possibilities for using the pre-trained language models. This paper introduces two autoregressive GPT-like models with 1.3 billion and 13 billion parameters trained on 60 languages from 25 language families using Wikipedia and Colossal Clean Crawled Corpus. We reproduce the GPT-3 architecture using GPT-2 sources and the sparse attention mechanism; Deepspeed and Megatron frameworks allow us to parallelize the training and inference steps effectively. The resulting models show performance on par with the recently released XGLM models by Facebook, covering more languages and enhancing NLP possibilities for low resource languages of CIS countries and Russian small nations. We detail the motivation for the choices of the architecture design, thoroughly describe the data preparation pipeline, and train five small versions of the model to choose the most optimal multilingual tokenization strategy. We measure the model perplexity in all covered languages and evaluate it on the wide spectre of multilingual tasks, including classification, generative, sequence labeling and knowledge probing. The models were evaluated with the zero-shot and few-shot methods. Furthermore, we compared the classification tasks with the state-of-the-art multilingual model XGLM. source code and the mGPT XL model are publicly released.

In-Context Learning (ICL) enables large language models (LLMs) to achieve rapid task adaptation by learning from demonstrations. With the increase in available context length of LLMs, recent experiments have shown that the performance of ICL does not necessarily scale well in many-shot (demonstration) settings. We theoretically and experimentally confirm that the reason lies in more demonstrations dispersing the model attention from the query, hindering its understanding of key content. Inspired by how humans learn from examples, we propose a training-free method FocusICL, which conducts triviality filtering to avoid attention being diverted by unimportant contents at token-level and operates hierarchical attention to further ensure sufficient attention towards current query at demonstration-level. We also design an efficient hyperparameter searching strategy for FocusICL based on model perplexity of demonstrations. Comprehensive experiments validate that FocusICL achieves an average performance improvement of 5.2% over vanilla ICL and scales well with many-shot demonstrations.

We propose a method to control the attributes of Language Models (LMs) for the text generation task using Causal Average Treatment Effect (ATE) scores and counterfactual augmentation. We explore this method, in the context of LM detoxification, and propose the Causally Fair Language (CFL) architecture for detoxifying pre-trained LMs in a plug-and-play manner. Our architecture is based on a Structural Causal Model (SCM) that is mathematically transparent and computationally efficient as compared with many existing detoxification techniques. We also propose several new metrics that aim to better understand the behaviour of LMs in the context of toxic text generation. Further, we achieve state of the art performance for toxic degeneration, which are computed using \RTP (RTP) benchmark. Our experiments show that CFL achieves such a detoxification without much impact on the model perplexity. We also show that CFL mitigates the unintended bias problem through experiments on the BOLD dataset.

Distilling advanced Large Language Models' instruction-following capabilities into smaller models using a selected subset has become a mainstream approach in model training. While existing synthetic instruction data selection strategies rely mainly on single-dimensional signals (i.e., reward scores, model perplexity), they fail to capture the complexity of instruction-following across diverse fields. Therefore, we investigate more diverse signals to capture comprehensive instruction-response pair characteristics and propose three foundational metrics that leverage Multi-LLM wisdom, informed by (1) diverse LLM responses and (2) reward model assessment. Building upon base metrics, we propose CrowdSelect, an integrated metric incorporating a clustering-based approach to maintain response diversity. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our foundation metrics consistently improve performance across 4 base models on MT-bench and Arena-Hard. CrowdSelect, efficiently incorporating all metrics, achieves state-of-the-art performance in both Full and LoRA fine-tuning, showing improvements of 4.81% on Arena-Hard and 11.1% on MT-bench with Llama-3.2-3b-instruct. We hope our findings will bring valuable insights for future research in this direction. Code are available at https://github.com/listentm/crowdselect.

Recent research in decoding methods for Natural Language Generation (NLG) tasks has shown that MAP decoding is not optimal, because model probabilities do not always align with human preferences. Stronger decoding methods, including Quality Estimation (QE) reranking and Minimum Bayes' Risk (MBR) decoding, have since been proposed to mitigate the model-perplexity-vs-quality mismatch. While these decoding methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, they are prohibitively expensive to compute. In this work, we propose MBR finetuning and QE finetuning which distill the quality gains from these decoding methods at training time, while using an efficient decoding algorithm at inference time. Using the canonical NLG task of Neural Machine Translation (NMT), we show that even with self-training, these finetuning methods significantly outperform the base model. Moreover, when using an external LLM as a teacher model, these finetuning methods outperform finetuning on human-generated references. These findings suggest new ways to leverage monolingual data to achieve improvements in model quality that are on par with, or even exceed, improvements from human-curated data, while maintaining maximum efficiency during decoding.

The study of language emergence aims to understand how human languages are shaped by perceptual grounding and communicative intent. Computational approaches to emergent communication (EC) predominantly consider referential games in limited domains and analyze the learned protocol within the game framework. As a result, it remains unclear how the emergent languages from these settings connect to natural languages or provide benefits in real-world language processing tasks, where statistical models trained on large text corpora dominate. In this work, we propose a novel way to establish such a link by corpus transfer, i.e. pretraining on a corpus of emergent language for downstream natural language tasks, which is in contrast to prior work that directly transfers speaker and listener parameters. Our approach showcases non-trivial transfer benefits for two different tasks -- language modeling and image captioning. For example, in a low-resource setup (modeling 2 million natural language tokens), pre-training on an emergent language corpus with just 2 million tokens reduces model perplexity by 24.6% on average across ten natural languages. We also introduce a novel metric to predict the transferability of an emergent language by translating emergent messages to natural language captions grounded on the same images. We find that our translation-based metric highly correlates with the downstream performance on modeling natural languages (for instance rho=0.83 on Hebrew), while topographic similarity, a popular metric in previous work, shows surprisingly low correlation (rho=0.003), hinting that simple properties like attribute disentanglement from synthetic domains might not capture the full complexities of natural language. Our findings also indicate potential benefits of moving language emergence forward with natural language resources and models.

Abstractive summarization is the task of compressing a long document into a coherent short document while retaining salient information. Modern abstractive summarization methods are based on deep neural networks which often require large training datasets. Since collecting summarization datasets is an expensive and time-consuming task, practical industrial settings are usually low-resource. In this paper, we study a challenging low-resource setting of summarizing long legal briefs with an average source document length of 4268 words and only 120 available (document, summary) pairs. To account for data scarcity, we used a modern pretrained abstractive summarizer BART (Lewis et al., 2020), which only achieves 17.9 ROUGE-L as it struggles with long documents. We thus attempt to compress these long documents by identifying salient sentences in the source which best ground the summary, using a novel algorithm based on GPT-2 (Radford et al., 2019) language model perplexity scores, that operates within the low resource regime. On feeding the compressed documents to BART, we observe a 6.0 ROUGE-L improvement. Our method also beats several competitive salience detection baselines. Furthermore, the identified salient sentences tend to agree with an independent human labeling by domain experts.

The pre-training of large language models usually requires massive amounts of resources, both in terms of computation and data. Frequently used web sources such as Common Crawl might contain enough noise to make this pre-training sub-optimal. In this work, we experiment with different sampling methods from the Spanish version of mC4, and present a novel data-centric technique which we name perplexity sampling that enables the pre-training of language models in roughly half the amount of steps and using one fifth of the data. The resulting models are comparable to the current state-of-the-art, and even achieve better results for certain tasks. Our work is proof of the versatility of Transformers, and paves the way for small teams to train their models on a limited budget. Our models are available at this https://huggingface.co/bertin-project{URL}.

Although model editing has shown promise in revising knowledge in Large Language Models (LLMs), its impact on the inherent capabilities of LLMs is often overlooked. In this work, we reveal a critical phenomenon: even a single edit can trigger model collapse, manifesting as significant performance degradation in various benchmark tasks. However, benchmarking LLMs after each edit, while necessary to prevent such collapses, is impractically time-consuming and resource-intensive. To mitigate this, we propose using perplexity as a surrogate metric, validated by extensive experiments demonstrating changes in an edited model's perplexity are strongly correlated with its downstream task performances. We further conduct an in-depth study on sequential editing, a practical setting for real-world scenarios, across various editing methods and LLMs, focusing on hard cases from our previous single edit studies. The results indicate that nearly all examined editing methods result in model collapse after only few edits. To facilitate further research, we have utilized GPT-3.5 to develop a new dataset, HardEdit, based on those hard cases. This dataset aims to establish the foundation for pioneering research in reliable model editing and the mechanisms underlying editing-induced model collapse. We hope this work can draw the community's attention to the potential risks inherent in model editing practices.

We introduce a novel meme generation system, which given any image can produce a humorous and relevant caption. Furthermore, the system can be conditioned on not only an image but also a user-defined label relating to the meme template, giving a handle to the user on meme content. The system uses a pretrained Inception-v3 network to return an image embedding which is passed to an attention-based deep-layer LSTM model producing the caption - inspired by the widely recognised Show and Tell Model. We implement a modified beam search to encourage diversity in the captions. We evaluate the quality of our model using perplexity and human assessment on both the quality of memes generated and whether they can be differentiated from real ones. Our model produces original memes that cannot on the whole be differentiated from real ones.

Scaling model size significantly challenges the deployment and inference of Large Language Models (LLMs). Due to the redundancy in LLM weights, recent research has focused on pushing weight-only quantization to extremely low-bit (even down to 2 bits). It reduces memory requirements, optimizes storage costs, and decreases memory bandwidth needs during inference. However, due to numerical representation limitations, traditional scalar-based weight quantization struggles to achieve such extreme low-bit. Recent research on Vector Quantization (VQ) for LLMs has demonstrated the potential for extremely low-bit model quantization by compressing vectors into indices using lookup tables. In this paper, we introduce Vector Post-Training Quantization (VPTQ) for extremely low-bit quantization of LLMs. We use Second-Order Optimization to formulate the LLM VQ problem and guide our quantization algorithm design by solving the optimization. We further refine the weights using Channel-Independent Second-Order Optimization for a granular VQ. In addition, by decomposing the optimization problem, we propose a brief and effective codebook initialization algorithm. We also extend VPTQ to support residual and outlier quantization, which enhances model accuracy and further compresses the model. Our experimental results show that VPTQ reduces model quantization perplexity by 0.01-0.34 on LLaMA-2, 0.38-0.68 on Mistral-7B, 4.41-7.34 on LLaMA-3 over SOTA at 2-bit, with an average accuracy improvement of 0.79-1.5% on LLaMA-2, 1% on Mistral-7B, 11-22% on LLaMA-3 on QA tasks on average. We only utilize 10.4-18.6% of the quantization algorithm execution time, resulting in a 1.6-1.8times increase in inference throughput compared to SOTA.

We propose a new benchmark corpus to be used for measuring progress in statistical language modeling. With almost one billion words of training data, we hope this benchmark will be useful to quickly evaluate novel language modeling techniques, and to compare their contribution when combined with other advanced techniques. We show performance of several well-known types of language models, with the best results achieved with a recurrent neural network based language model. The baseline unpruned Kneser-Ney 5-gram model achieves perplexity 67.6; a combination of techniques leads to 35% reduction in perplexity, or 10% reduction in cross-entropy (bits), over that baseline. The benchmark is available as a code.google.com project; besides the scripts needed to rebuild the training/held-out data, it also makes available log-probability values for each word in each of ten held-out data sets, for each of the baseline n-gram models.

This paper introduces CURLoRA, a novel approach to fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) that leverages CUR matrix decomposition in the context of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Our method addresses two critical challenges in LLM fine-tuning: mitigating catastrophic forgetting during continual learning and reducing the number of trainable parameters. We propose a unique modification to the CUR decomposition process, utilizing inverted probabilities for column and row selection which acts as an implicit regularization, and initializing the U matrix as a zero matrix, and only fine-tuning it. We demonstrate through experiments on multiple datasets that CURLoRA outperforms standard LoRA in mitigating catastrophic forgetting. It maintains model stability and performance across tasks while significantly reducing the number of trainable parameters. Our results show that CURLoRA achieves very good and stable task accuracy while maintaining base model's perplexity scores fixed compared to LoRA upon continual fine-tuning, particularly in scenarios with limited data.

We propose an alternate approach to quantifying how well language models learn natural language: we ask how well they match the statistical tendencies of natural language. To answer this question, we analyze whether text generated from language models exhibits the statistical tendencies present in the human-generated text on which they were trained. We provide a framework--paired with significance tests--for evaluating the fit of language models to these trends. We find that neural language models appear to learn only a subset of the tendencies considered, but align much more closely with empirical trends than proposed theoretical distributions (when present). Further, the fit to different distributions is highly-dependent on both model architecture and generation strategy. As concrete examples, text generated under the nucleus sampling scheme adheres more closely to the type--token relationship of natural language than text produced using standard ancestral sampling; text from LSTMs reflects the natural language distributions over length, stopwords, and symbols surprisingly well.

In this paper, we present Paramanu-Ganita, a 208 million parameter novel Auto Regressive (AR) decoder based language model on mathematics. The model is pretrained from scratch at context size of 4096 on our curated mixed mathematical corpus. We evaluate our model on both perplexity metric and GSM8k mathematical benchmark. Paramanu-Ganita despite being 35 times smaller than 7B LLMs, outperformed generalist LLMs such as LLaMa-1 7B by 28.4% points, LLaMa-2 7B by 27.6% points, Falcon 7B by 32.6% points, PaLM 8B by 35.3% points, and math specialised LLMs such as Minerva 8B by 23.2% points, and LLEMMA-7B by 3.0% points in GSM8k test accuracy metric respectively. Paramanu-Ganita also outperformed giant LLMs like PaLM 62B by 6.4% points, Falcon 40B by 19.8% points, LLaMa-1 33B by 3.8% points and Vicuna 13B by 11.8% points respectively. The large significant margin improvement in performance of our math model over the existing LLMs signifies that reasoning capabilities of language model are just not restricted to LLMs with humongous number of parameters. Paramanu-Ganita took 146 hours of A100 training whereas math specialised LLM, LLEMMA 7B, was trained for 23,000 A100 hours of training equivalent. Thus, our approach of pretraining powerful domain specialised language models from scratch for domain adaptation is much more cost-effective than performing continual training of LLMs for domain adaptation. Hence, we conclude that for strong mathematical reasoning abilities of language model, we do not need giant LLMs and immense computing power to our end. In the end, we want to point out that we have only trained Paramanu-Ganita only on a part of our entire mathematical corpus and yet to explore the full potential of our model.

Language models that are sensitive to external context can more effectively capture the speaking patterns of individuals with specific characteristics or in particular environments. However, obtaining and leveraging such annotations can be challenging. In this work, we show how to leverage rich character and film annotations to personalise language models in a scalable manner. Our best model can reduce perplexity by up to 6.5% compared to a parameter-matched language model. Our approach performs on par with speaker-specific fine-tuning when the fine-tuning data (i.e. past dialogue) for individual speakers is available. On top of that, it also generalises well to a scenario with no such data, relying on combinations of demographic characteristics expressed via metadata. Our findings are consistent across two corpora, one of which is also a contribution of this paper: Cornell-rich contains rich manual annotations for 863 speaking characters from the Cornell Movie Dialog Corpus, including features such as characteristic quotes and character descriptions, along with six automatically extracted metadata features for over 95% of the featured films. Finally, we also present a cost-benefit analysis highlighting which annotations are most cost-effective in reducing perplexity.

Recently, pre-trained transformer-based architectures have proven to be very efficient at language modeling and understanding, given that they are trained on a large enough corpus. Applications in language generation for Arabic are still lagging in comparison to other NLP advances primarily due to the lack of advanced Arabic language generation models. In this paper, we develop the first advanced Arabic language generation model, AraGPT2, trained from scratch on a large Arabic corpus of internet text and news articles. Our largest model, AraGPT2-mega, has 1.46 billion parameters, which makes it the largest Arabic language model available. The Mega model was evaluated and showed success on different tasks including synthetic news generation, and zero-shot question answering. For text generation, our best model achieves a perplexity of 29.8 on held-out Wikipedia articles. A study conducted with human evaluators showed the significant success of AraGPT2-mega in generating news articles that are difficult to distinguish from articles written by humans. We thus develop and release an automatic discriminator model with a 98% percent accuracy in detecting model-generated text. The models are also publicly available, hoping to encourage new research directions and applications for Arabic NLP.

The coverage and composition of the pretraining data significantly impacts the generalization ability of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite its importance, recent LLMs still rely on heuristics and trial and error to increase or reduce the influence of data-domains. We propose DOmain reweighting with Generalization Estimation (DoGE), which optimizes the probability of sampling from each domain (domain weights) in a principled way. Our approach is a two-stage process consisting of (i) training a proxy model to obtain domain weights using a bi-level optimization algorithm; (ii) training a larger base model by sampling training domains according to the learned domain weights. In our experiments, we extensively show how DoGE improves the generalization of the base model to any target data mixture. On the SlimPajama dataset, our base model gets better perplexity and few-shot reasoning accuracies across 6 tasks compared to baseline methods. Moreover, aiming to generalize to out-of-domain target tasks, which is unseen in the pretraining corpus (OOD domain), DoGE can effectively identify inter-domain dependencies, and consistently achieves better test perplexity on the target domain.

The emergence of accurate open large language models (LLMs) has led to a race towards quantization techniques for such models enabling execution on end-user devices. In this paper, we revisit the problem of "extreme" LLM compression--defined as targeting extremely low bit counts, such as 2 to 3 bits per parameter, from the point of view of classic methods in Multi-Codebook Quantization (MCQ). Our work builds on top of Additive Quantization, a classic algorithm from the MCQ family, and adapts it to the quantization of language models. The resulting algorithm advances the state-of-the-art in LLM compression, outperforming all recently-proposed techniques in terms of accuracy at a given compression budget. For instance, when compressing Llama 2 models to 2 bits per parameter, our algorithm quantizes the 7B model to 6.93 perplexity (a 1.29 improvement relative to the best prior work, and 1.81 points from FP16), the 13B model to 5.70 perplexity (a .36 improvement) and the 70B model to 3.94 perplexity (a .22 improvement) on WikiText2. We release our implementation of Additive Quantization for Language Models AQLM as a baseline to facilitate future research in LLM quantization.

The rapid advancement in large language models (LLMs) has significantly enhanced their ability to generate coherent and contextually relevant text, raising concerns about the misuse of AI-generated content and making it critical to detect it. However, the task remains challenging, particularly in unseen domains or with unfamiliar LLMs. Leveraging LLM next-token distribution outputs offers a theoretically appealing approach for detection, as they encapsulate insights from the models' extensive pre-training on diverse corpora. Despite its promise, zero-shot methods that attempt to operationalize these outputs have met with limited success. We hypothesize that one of the problems is that they use the mean to aggregate next-token distribution metrics across tokens, when some tokens are naturally easier or harder to predict and should be weighted differently. Based on this idea, we propose the Perplexity Attention Weighted Network (PAWN), which uses the last hidden states of the LLM and positions to weight the sum of a series of features based on metrics from the next-token distribution across the sequence length. Although not zero-shot, our method allows us to cache the last hidden states and next-token distribution metrics on disk, greatly reducing the training resource requirements. PAWN shows competitive and even better performance in-distribution than the strongest baselines (fine-tuned LMs) with a fraction of their trainable parameters. Our model also generalizes better to unseen domains and source models, with smaller variability in the decision boundary across distribution shifts. It is also more robust to adversarial attacks, and if the backbone has multilingual capabilities, it presents decent generalization to languages not seen during supervised training, with LLaMA3-1B reaching a mean macro-averaged F1 score of 81.46% in cross-validation with nine languages.

Language models (LMs) commonly report perplexity on monolithic data held out from training. Implicitly or explicitly, this data is composed of domainsx2013varying distributions of language. Rather than assuming perplexity on one distribution extrapolates to others, Perplexity Analysis for Language Model Assessment (Paloma), measures LM fit to 585 text domains, ranging from nytimes.com to r/depression on Reddit. We invite submissions to our benchmark and organize results by comparability based on compliance with guidelines such as removal of benchmark contamination from pretraining. Submissions can also record parameter and training token count to make comparisons of Pareto efficiency for performance as a function of these measures of cost. We populate our benchmark with results from 6 baselines pretrained on popular corpora. In case studies, we demonstrate analyses that are possible with Paloma, such as finding that pretraining without data beyond Common Crawl leads to inconsistent fit to many domains.

Model ensemble has been in widespread use for Grammatical Error Correction (GEC), boosting model performance. We hypothesize that model ensemble based on the perplexity (PPL) computed by pre-trained language models (PLMs) should benefit the GEC system. To this end, we explore several ensemble strategies based on strong PLMs with four sophisticated single models. However, the performance does not improve but even gets worse after the PLM-based ensemble. This surprising result sets us doing a detailed analysis on the data and coming up with some insights on GEC. The human references of correct sentences is far from sufficient in the test data, and the gap between a correct sentence and an idiomatic one is worth our attention. Moreover, the PLM-based ensemble strategies provide an effective way to extend and improve GEC benchmark data. Our source code is available at https://github.com/JamyDon/PLM-based-CGEC-Model-Ensemble.

In this work, we investigate whether small language models can determine high-quality subsets of large-scale text datasets that improve the performance of larger language models. While existing work has shown that pruning based on the perplexity of a larger model can yield high-quality data, we investigate whether smaller models can be used for perplexity-based pruning and how pruning is affected by the domain composition of the data being pruned. We demonstrate that for multiple dataset compositions, perplexity-based pruning of pretraining data can significantly improve downstream task performance: pruning based on perplexities computed with a 125 million parameter model improves the average performance on downstream tasks of a 3 billion parameter model by up to 2.04 and achieves up to a 1.45times reduction in pretraining steps to reach commensurate baseline performance. Furthermore, we demonstrate that such perplexity-based data pruning also yields downstream performance gains in the over-trained and data-constrained regimes.

We present persona-based models for handling the issue of speaker consistency in neural response generation. A speaker model encodes personas in distributed embeddings that capture individual characteristics such as background information and speaking style. A dyadic speaker-addressee model captures properties of interactions between two interlocutors. Our models yield qualitative performance improvements in both perplexity and BLEU scores over baseline sequence-to-sequence models, with similar gains in speaker consistency as measured by human judges.

Stable pre-training is essential for achieving better-performing language models. However, tracking pre-training stability by calculating gradient variance at every step is impractical due to the significant computational costs. We explore Token Embedding Variability (TEV) as a simple and efficient proxy for assessing pre-training stability in language models with pre-layer normalization, given that shallower layers are more prone to gradient explosion (section 2.2). Moreover, we propose Multi-head Low-Rank Attention (MLRA) as an architecture to alleviate such instability by limiting the exponential growth of output embedding variance, thereby preventing the gradient explosion (section 3.2). Empirical results on GPT-2 with MLRA demonstrate increased stability and lower perplexity, particularly in deeper models.

Despite the remarkable advances in language modeling, current mainstream decoding methods still struggle to generate texts that align with human texts across different aspects. In particular, sampling-based methods produce less-repetitive texts which are often disjunctive in discourse, while search-based methods maintain topic coherence at the cost of increased repetition. Overall, these methods fall short in achieving holistic alignment across a broad range of aspects. In this work, we frame decoding from a language model as an optimization problem with the goal of strictly matching the expected performance with human texts measured by multiple metrics of desired aspects simultaneously. The resulting decoding distribution enjoys an analytical solution that scales the input language model distribution via a sequence-level energy function defined by these metrics. And most importantly, we prove that this induced distribution is guaranteed to improve the perplexity on human texts, which suggests a better approximation to the underlying distribution of human texts. To facilitate tractable sampling from this globally normalized distribution, we adopt the Sampling-Importance-Resampling technique. Experiments on various domains and model scales demonstrate the superiority of our method in metrics alignment with human texts and human evaluation over strong baselines.

In the last few years, pre-trained neural architectures have provided impressive improvements across several NLP tasks. Still, generative language models are available mainly for English. We develop GePpeTto, the first generative language model for Italian, built using the GPT-2 architecture. We provide a thorough analysis of GePpeTto's quality by means of both an automatic and a human-based evaluation. The automatic assessment consists in (i) calculating perplexity across different genres and (ii) a profiling analysis over GePpeTto's writing characteristics. We find that GePpeTto's production is a sort of bonsai version of human production, with shorter but yet complex sentences. Human evaluation is performed over a sentence completion task, where GePpeTto's output is judged as natural more often than not, and much closer to the original human texts than to a simpler language model which we take as baseline.

We propose WHISPER-GPT: A generative large language model (LLM) for speech and music that allows us to work with continuous audio representations and discrete tokens simultaneously as part of a single architecture. There has been a huge surge in generative audio, speech, and music models that utilize discrete audio tokens derived from neural compression algorithms, e.g. ENCODEC. However, one of the major drawbacks of this approach is handling the context length. It blows up for high-fidelity generative architecture if one has to account for all the audio contents at various frequencies for the next token prediction. By combining continuous audio representation like the spectrogram and discrete acoustic tokens, we retain the best of both worlds: Have all the information needed from the audio at a specific time instance in a single token, yet allow LLM to predict the future token to allow for sampling and other benefits discrete space provides. We show how our architecture improves the perplexity and negative log-likelihood scores for the next token prediction compared to a token-based LLM for speech and music.

The mixture proportions of pretraining data domains (e.g., Wikipedia, books, web text) greatly affect language model (LM) performance. In this paper, we propose Domain Reweighting with Minimax Optimization (DoReMi), which first trains a small proxy model using group distributionally robust optimization (Group DRO) over domains to produce domain weights (mixture proportions) without knowledge of downstream tasks. We then resample a dataset with these domain weights and train a larger, full-sized model. In our experiments, we use DoReMi on a 280M-parameter proxy model to find domain weights for training an 8B-parameter model (30x larger) more efficiently. On The Pile, DoReMi improves perplexity across all domains, even when it downweights a domain. DoReMi improves average few-shot downstream accuracy by 6.5% over a baseline model trained using The Pile's default domain weights and reaches the baseline accuracy with 2.6x fewer training steps. On the GLaM dataset, DoReMi, which has no knowledge of downstream tasks, even matches the performance of using domain weights tuned on downstream tasks.

Maintaining consistent model performance across domains is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. While recent work has explored using LLM-generated data for fine-tuning, its impact on cross-domain generalization remains poorly understood. In this paper, we present a systematic analysis revealing that fine-tuning with LLM-generated data not only improves target task performance but also reduces out-of-domain (OOD) degradation compared to fine-tuning with ground truth data. Through analyzing the data sequence in tasks of various domains, we demonstrate that this enhanced OOD robustness stems from a reduced prevalence of high perplexity tokens in LLM-generated sequences. Following this hypothesis we showed that masking high perplexity tokens in ground truth training data also achieves similar OOD preservation comparable to using LLM-generated data. Extensive experiments across diverse model architectures and scales, including Gemma2-2B, Mistral-7B and Llama3-8B, corroborate the consistency of our findings. To the best of our knowledge, this work provides the first mechanistic explanation for the superior OOD robustness conferred by LLM-generated training data, offering valuable insights for developing more robust fine-tuning strategies.

Recent work in language modeling demonstrates that training large transformer models advances the state of the art in Natural Language Processing applications. However, very large models can be quite difficult to train due to memory constraints. In this work, we present our techniques for training very large transformer models and implement a simple, efficient intra-layer model parallel approach that enables training transformer models with billions of parameters. Our approach does not require a new compiler or library changes, is orthogonal and complimentary to pipeline model parallelism, and can be fully implemented with the insertion of a few communication operations in native PyTorch. We illustrate this approach by converging transformer based models up to 8.3 billion parameters using 512 GPUs. We sustain 15.1 PetaFLOPs across the entire application with 76% scaling efficiency when compared to a strong single GPU baseline that sustains 39 TeraFLOPs, which is 30% of peak FLOPs. To demonstrate that large language models can further advance the state of the art (SOTA), we train an 8.3 billion parameter transformer language model similar to GPT-2 and a 3.9 billion parameter model similar to BERT. We show that careful attention to the placement of layer normalization in BERT-like models is critical to achieving increased performance as the model size grows. Using the GPT-2 model we achieve SOTA results on the WikiText103 (10.8 compared to SOTA perplexity of 15.8) and LAMBADA (66.5% compared to SOTA accuracy of 63.2%) datasets. Our BERT model achieves SOTA results on the RACE dataset (90.9% compared to SOTA accuracy of 89.4%).

We introduce a novel approach for building language models based on a systematic, recursive exploration of skip n-gram models which are interpolated using modified Kneser-Ney smoothing. Our approach generalizes language models as it contains the classical interpolation with lower order models as a special case. In this paper we motivate, formalize and present our approach. In an extensive empirical experiment over English text corpora we demonstrate that our generalized language models lead to a substantial reduction of perplexity between 3.1% and 12.7% in comparison to traditional language models using modified Kneser-Ney smoothing. Furthermore, we investigate the behaviour over three other languages and a domain specific corpus where we observed consistent improvements. Finally, we also show that the strength of our approach lies in its ability to cope in particular with sparse training data. Using a very small training data set of only 736 KB text we yield improvements of even 25.7% reduction of perplexity.

Controlled Text Generation (CTG) aims to produce texts that exhibit specific desired attributes. In this study, we introduce a pluggable CTG framework for Large Language Models (LLMs) named Dynamic Attribute Graphs-based controlled text generation (DATG). This framework utilizes an attribute scorer to evaluate the attributes of sentences generated by LLMs and constructs dynamic attribute graphs. DATG modulates the occurrence of key attribute words and key anti-attribute words, achieving effective attribute control without compromising the original capabilities of the model. We conduct experiments across four datasets in two tasks: toxicity mitigation and sentiment transformation, employing five LLMs as foundational models. Our findings highlight a remarkable enhancement in control accuracy, achieving a peak improvement of 19.29% over baseline methods in the most favorable task across four datasets. Additionally, we observe a significant decrease in perplexity, markedly improving text fluency.

Augmenting a language model (LM) with k-nearest neighbors (kNN) retrieval on its training data alone can decrease its perplexity, though the underlying reasons for this remains elusive. In this work, we first rule out one previously posited possibility -- the "softmax bottleneck." We further identify the MLP hurdle phenomenon, where the final MLP layer in LMs may impede LM optimization early on. We explore memorization and generalization in language models with two new datasets, where advanced model like GPT-3.5-turbo find generalizing to irrelevant information in the training data challenging. However, incorporating kNN retrieval to vanilla GPT-2 117M can consistently improve performance in this setting.

Long samples of text from neural language models can be of poor quality. Truncation sampling algorithms--like top-p or top-k -- address this by setting some words' probabilities to zero at each step. This work provides framing for the aim of truncation, and an improved algorithm for that aim. We propose thinking of a neural language model as a mixture of a true distribution and a smoothing distribution that avoids infinite perplexity. In this light, truncation algorithms aim to perform desmoothing, estimating a subset of the support of the true distribution. Finding a good subset is crucial: we show that top-p unnecessarily truncates high-probability words, for example causing it to truncate all words but Trump for a document that starts with Donald. We introduce eta-sampling, which truncates words below an entropy-dependent probability threshold. Compared to previous algorithms, eta-sampling generates more plausible long English documents according to humans, is better at breaking out of repetition, and behaves more reasonably on a battery of test distributions.

In recent years, vision-language models have made significant strides, excelling in tasks like optical character recognition and geometric problem-solving. However, several critical issues remain: 1) Proprietary models often lack transparency about their architectures, while open-source models need more detailed ablations of their training strategies. 2) Pre-training data in open-source works is under-explored, with datasets added empirically, making the process cumbersome. 3) Fine-tuning often focuses on adding datasets, leading to diminishing returns. To address these issues, we propose the following contributions: 1) We trained a robust baseline model using the latest advancements in vision-language models, introducing effective improvements and conducting comprehensive ablation and validation for each technique. 2) Inspired by recent work on large language models, we filtered pre-training data using perplexity, selecting the lowest perplexity data for training. This approach allowed us to train on a curated 1M dataset, achieving competitive performance. 3) During visual instruction tuning, we used model soup on different datasets when adding more datasets yielded marginal improvements. These innovations resulted in a 9B parameter model that performs competitively with state-of-the-art models. Our strategies are efficient and lightweight, making them easily adoptable by the community.

We present Knesset-DictaBERT, a large Hebrew language model fine-tuned on the Knesset Corpus, which comprises Israeli parliamentary proceedings. The model is based on the DictaBERT architecture and demonstrates significant improvements in understanding parliamentary language according to the MLM task. We provide a detailed evaluation of the model's performance, showing improvements in perplexity and accuracy over the baseline DictaBERT model.

The advancement of natural language processing (NLP) in biology hinges on models' ability to interpret intricate biomedical literature. Traditional models often struggle with the complex and domain-specific language in this field. In this paper, we present BioMamba, a pre-trained model specifically designed for biomedical text mining. BioMamba builds upon the Mamba architecture and is pre-trained on an extensive corpus of biomedical literature. Our empirical studies demonstrate that BioMamba significantly outperforms models like BioBERT and general-domain Mamba across various biomedical tasks. For instance, BioMamba achieves a 100 times reduction in perplexity and a 4 times reduction in cross-entropy loss on the BioASQ test set. We provide an overview of the model architecture, pre-training process, and fine-tuning techniques. Additionally, we release the code and trained model to facilitate further research.

Knowledge distillation trains a smaller student model to match the output distribution of a larger teacher to maximize the end-task performance under computational constraints. However, existing literature on language model distillation primarily focuses on compressing encoder-only models that are then specialized by task-specific supervised finetuning. We need to rethink this setup for more recent large language models with tens to hundreds of billions of parameters. Task-specific finetuning is impractical at this scale, and model performance is often measured using zero/few-shot prompting. Thus, in this work, we advocate for task-agnostic zero-shot evaluated distillation for large language models without access to end-task finetuning data. We propose a teacher-free task-agnostic distillation method, which uses a truncated version of the larger model for initialization, and continues pretraining this model using a language modeling objective. Our teacher-free method shines in a distillation regime where it is infeasible to fit both the student and teacher into the GPU memory. Despite its simplicity, our method can effectively reduce the model size by 50\%, matching or outperforming the vanilla distillation method on perplexity and accuracy on 13 zero-shot end-tasks while being 1.5x computationally efficient.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance on Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, but they are hindered by high computational costs and memory requirements. Ternarization, an extreme form of quantization, offers a solution by reducing memory usage and enabling energy-efficient floating-point additions. However, applying ternarization to LLMs faces challenges stemming from outliers in both weights and activations. In this work, observing asymmetric outliers and non-zero means in weights, we introduce Dual Learnable Ternarization (DLT), which enables both scales and shifts to be learnable. We also propose Outlier-Friendly Feature Knowledge Distillation (OFF) to recover the information lost in extremely low-bit quantization. The proposed OFF can incorporate semantic information and is insensitive to outliers. At the core of OFF is maximizing the mutual information between features in ternarized and floating-point models using cosine similarity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our TernaryLLM surpasses previous low-bit quantization methods on the standard text generation and zero-shot benchmarks for different LLM families. Specifically, for one of the most powerful open-source models, LLaMA-3, our approach (W1.58A16) outperforms the previous state-of-the-art method (W2A16) by 5.8 in terms of perplexity on C4 and by 8.2% in terms of average accuracy on zero-shot tasks.

The data used to pretrain large language models has a decisive impact on a model's downstream performance, which has led to a large body of work on data selection methods that aim to automatically determine the most suitable data to use for pretraining. Existing data selection methods suffer from slow and computationally expensive processes, a problem amplified by the increasing size of models and of pretraining datasets. Data mixing, on the other hand, reduces the complexity of data selection by grouping data points together and determining sampling probabilities across entire groups. However, data mixing proportions are typically fixed before training and therefore cannot adapt to changing training dynamics. To address these limitations, we develop an efficient algorithm for Online Data Mixing (ODM) that combines elements from both data selection and data mixing. Based on multi-armed bandit algorithms, our online approach optimizes the data mixing proportions during training. Remarkably, our method trains a model that reaches the final perplexity of the next best method with 19\% fewer training iterations, and improves performance on the 5-shot MMLU benchmark by 1.9% relative accuracy, while adding negligible wall-clock time during pretraining.

With easier access to powerful compute resources, there is a growing trend in AI for software development to develop large language models (LLMs) to address a variety of programming tasks. Even LLMs applied to tasks from the high-performance computing (HPC) domain are huge in size and demand expensive compute resources for training. This is partly because LLMs for HPC tasks are obtained by finetuning existing LLMs that support several natural and/or programming languages. We found this design choice confusing - why do we need LLMs trained on natural languages and programming languages unrelated to HPC for HPC-specific tasks? In this line of work, we aim to question choices made by existing LLMs by developing smaller language models (LMs) for specific domains - we call them domain-specific LMs. Specifically, we start with HPC as a domain and build an HPC-specific LM, named MonoCoder, which is orders of magnitude smaller than existing LMs but delivers better performance on non-HPC and HPC codes. Specifically, we pre-trained MonoCoder on an HPC-specific dataset (named HPCorpus) of C and C++ programs mined from GitHub. We evaluated the performance of MonoCoder against state-of-the-art multi-lingual LLMs. Results demonstrate that MonoCoder, although much smaller than existing LMs, outperforms other LLMs on normalized-perplexity tests (in relation to model size) while also delivering competing CodeBLEU scores for high-performance and parallel code generations. In other words, results suggest that MonoCoder understands HPC code better than state-of-the-art LLMs.

As demand for large corpora increases with the size of current state-of-the-art language models, using web data as the main part of the pre-training corpus for these models has become a ubiquitous practice. This, in turn, has introduced an important challenge for NLP practitioners, as they are now confronted with the task of developing highly optimized models and pipelines for pre-processing large quantities of textual data, which implies, effectively classifying and filtering multilingual, heterogeneous and noisy data, at web scale. One of the main components of this pre-processing step for the pre-training corpora of large language models, is the removal of adult and harmful content. In this paper we explore different methods for detecting adult and harmful of content in multilingual heterogeneous web data. We first show how traditional methods in harmful content detection, that seemingly perform quite well in small and specialized datasets quickly break down when confronted with heterogeneous noisy web data. We then resort to using a perplexity based approach but with a twist: Instead of using a so-called "clean" corpus to train a small language model and then use perplexity so select the documents with low perplexity, i.e., the documents that resemble this so-called "clean" corpus the most. We train solely with adult and harmful textual data, and then select the documents having a perplexity value above a given threshold. This approach will virtually cluster our documents into two distinct groups, which will greatly facilitate the choice of the threshold for the perplexity and will also allow us to obtain higher precision than with the traditional classification methods for detecting adult and harmful content.

Neural text decoding is important for generating high-quality texts using language models. To generate high-quality text, popular decoding algorithms like top-k, top-p (nucleus), and temperature-based sampling truncate or distort the unreliable low probability tail of the language model. Though these methods generate high-quality text after parameter tuning, they are ad hoc. Not much is known about the control they provide over the statistics of the output, which is important since recent reports show text quality is highest for a specific range of likelihoods. Here, first we provide a theoretical analysis of perplexity in top-k, top-p, and temperature sampling, finding that cross-entropy behaves approximately linearly as a function of p in top-p sampling whereas it is a nonlinear function of k in top-k sampling, under Zipfian statistics. We use this analysis to design a feedback-based adaptive top-k text decoding algorithm called mirostat that generates text (of any length) with a predetermined value of perplexity, and thereby high-quality text without any tuning. Experiments show that for low values of k and p in top-k and top-p sampling, perplexity drops significantly with generated text length, which is also correlated with excessive repetitions in the text (the boredom trap). On the other hand, for large values of k and p, we find that perplexity increases with generated text length, which is correlated with incoherence in the text (confusion trap). Mirostat avoids both traps: experiments show that cross-entropy has a near-linear relation with repetition in generated text. This relation is almost independent of the sampling method but slightly dependent on the model used. Hence, for a given language model, control over perplexity also gives control over repetitions. Experiments with human raters for fluency, coherence, and quality further verify our findings.

The effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) is often hindered by duplicated data in their extensive pre-training datasets. Current approaches primarily focus on detecting and removing duplicates, which risks the loss of valuable information and neglects the varying degrees of duplication. To address this, we propose a soft deduplication method that maintains dataset integrity while selectively reducing the sampling weight of data with high commonness. Central to our approach is the concept of "data commonness", a metric we introduce to quantify the degree of duplication by measuring the occurrence probabilities of samples using an n-gram model. Empirical analysis shows that this method significantly improves training efficiency, achieving comparable perplexity scores with at least a 26% reduction in required training steps. Additionally, it enhances average few-shot downstream accuracy by 1.77% when trained for an equivalent duration. Importantly, this approach consistently improves performance, even on rigorously deduplicated datasets, indicating its potential to complement existing methods and become a standard pre-training process for LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are routinely pre-trained on billions of tokens, only to restart the process over again once new data becomes available. A much cheaper and more efficient solution would be to enable the continual pre-training of these models, i.e. updating pre-trained models with new data instead of re-training them from scratch. However, the distribution shift induced by novel data typically results in degraded performance on past data. Taking a step towards efficient continual pre-training, in this work, we examine the effect of different warm-up strategies. Our hypothesis is that the learning rate must be re-increased to improve compute efficiency when training on a new dataset. We study the warmup phase of models pre-trained on the Pile (upstream data, 300B tokens) as we continue to pre-train on SlimPajama (downstream data, 297B tokens), following a linear warmup and cosine decay schedule. We conduct all experiments on the Pythia 410M language model architecture and evaluate performance through validation perplexity. We experiment with different pre-training checkpoints, various maximum learning rates, and various warmup lengths. Our results show that while rewarming models first increases the loss on upstream and downstream data, in the longer run it improves the downstream performance, outperforming models trained from scratchx2013even for a large downstream dataset.

In order to make the foundation model more efficient and effective, our idea is combining sequence transformation and state transformation. First, we prove the availability of rotary position embedding in the state space duality algorithm, which reduces the perplexity of the hybrid quadratic causal self-attention and state space duality by more than 4%, to ensure that the combining sequence transformation unifies position encoding. Second, we propose dynamic mask attention, which maintains 100% accuracy in the more challenging multi-query associative recall task, improving by more than 150% compared to quadratic causal self-attention and state space duality, to ensure that the combining sequence transformation selectively filters relevant information. Third, we design cross domain mixture of experts, which makes the computational speed of expert retrieval with more than 1024 experts 8 to 10 times faster than the mixture of experts, to ensure that the combining state transformation quickly retrieval mixture. Finally, we summarize these matrix algorithms that can form the foundation model: Wonderful Matrices, which can be a competitor to popular model architectures.

This paper poses two critical issues in evaluating base models (without post-training): (1) Unstable evaluation during training: in the early stages of pre-training, the models lack the capability to answer questions as required, leading to unstable evaluation results. This instability makes it difficult to provide solid conclusions to guide the training, especially for key experiments such as data ablation and scaling law. (2) Inconsistency between base and instruct models: base models generally exhibit poorer evaluation performance compared to corresponding instruct models. This gap poses a challenge for assessing whether a base model with better evaluation can truly lead to a better instruct model. To address these issues, we propose Base model Oriented Systematic Evaluation (BOSE), a method specifically designed to optimize the evaluation of base models. Specifically, BOSE introduces two key innovations: In-Context Light-instruction Prompt (ICLiP) for open-ended tasks and Blank-ppl for multi-choice tasks with candidate options, which transforms the standard perplexity (ppl) metric into a fill-in-the-blank format to mitigate early-stage evaluation fluctuations. Furthermore, we are the first to propose Kendall's rank correlation to quantitatively measure the evaluation stability and consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that BOSE significantly enhances both the stability of evaluations during pre-training and the consistency between base and instruct models, thereby providing more reliable guidance for the LLMs' training.

In recent years, language models have drastically grown in size, and the abilities of these models have been shown to improve with scale. The majority of recent scaling laws studies focused on high-compute high-parameter count settings, leaving the question of when these abilities begin to emerge largely unanswered. In this paper, we investigate whether the effects of pre-training can be observed when the problem size is reduced, modeling a smaller, reduced-vocabulary language. We show the benefits of pre-training with masked language modeling (MLM) objective in models as small as 1.25M parameters, and establish a strong correlation between pre-training perplexity and downstream performance (GLUE benchmark). We examine downscaling effects, extending scaling laws to models as small as ~1M parameters. At this scale, we observe a break of the power law for compute-optimal models and show that the MLM loss does not scale smoothly with compute-cost (FLOPs) below 2.2 times 10^{15} FLOPs. We also find that adding layers does not always benefit downstream performance.

Large and sparse feed-forward layers (S-FFN) such as Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) have proven effective in scaling up Transformers model size for pretraining large language models. By only activating part of the FFN parameters conditioning on input, S-FFN improves generalization performance while keeping training and inference costs (in FLOPs) fixed. In this work, we analyzed two major design choices of S-FFN: the memory block (a.k.a. expert) size and the memory block selection method under a general conceptual framework of sparse neural memory. Using this unified framework, we compare several S-FFN architectures for language modeling and provide insights into their relative efficacy and efficiency. We found a simpler selection method -- \texttt{Avg-K} that selects blocks through their mean aggregated hidden states, achieving lower perplexity in language model pretraining compared to existing MoE architectures including Switch Transformer (Fedus et al., 2021) and HashLayer (Roller et al., 2021).

Building open-domain conversational systems (or chatbots) that produce convincing responses is a recognized challenge. Recent state-of-the-art (SoTA) transformer-based models for the generation of natural language dialogue have demonstrated impressive performance in simulating human-like, single-turn conversations in English. This work investigates, by an empirical study, the potential for transfer learning of such models to Swedish language. DialoGPT, an English language pre-trained model, is adapted by training on three different Swedish language conversational datasets obtained from publicly available sources. Perplexity score (an automated intrinsic language model metric) and surveys by human evaluation were used to assess the performances of the fine-tuned models, with results that indicate that the capacity for transfer learning can be exploited with considerable success. Human evaluators asked to score the simulated dialogue judged over 57% of the chatbot responses to be human-like for the model trained on the largest (Swedish) dataset. We provide the demos and model checkpoints of our English and Swedish chatbots on the HuggingFace platform for public use.

In this work we explore recent advances in Recurrent Neural Networks for large scale Language Modeling, a task central to language understanding. We extend current models to deal with two key challenges present in this task: corpora and vocabulary sizes, and complex, long term structure of language. We perform an exhaustive study on techniques such as character Convolutional Neural Networks or Long-Short Term Memory, on the One Billion Word Benchmark. Our best single model significantly improves state-of-the-art perplexity from 51.3 down to 30.0 (whilst reducing the number of parameters by a factor of 20), while an ensemble of models sets a new record by improving perplexity from 41.0 down to 23.7. We also release these models for the NLP and ML community to study and improve upon.

State space models (SSMs) have shown impressive results on tasks that require modeling long-range dependencies and efficiently scale to long sequences owing to their subquadratic runtime complexity. Originally designed for continuous signals, SSMs have shown superior performance on a plethora of tasks, in vision and audio; however, SSMs still lag Transformer performance in Language Modeling tasks. In this work, we propose a hybrid layer named Block-State Transformer (BST), that internally combines an SSM sublayer for long-range contextualization, and a Block Transformer sublayer for short-term representation of sequences. We study three different, and completely parallelizable, variants that integrate SSMs and block-wise attention. We show that our model outperforms similar Transformer-based architectures on language modeling perplexity and generalizes to longer sequences. In addition, the Block-State Transformer demonstrates more than tenfold increase in speed at the layer level compared to the Block-Recurrent Transformer when model parallelization is employed.

We introduce QuaRot, a new Quantization scheme based on Rotations, which is able to quantize LLMs end-to-end, including all weights, activations, and KV cache in 4 bits. QuaRot rotates LLMs in a way that removes outliers from the hidden state without changing the output, making quantization easier. This computational invariance is applied to the hidden state (residual) of the LLM, as well as to the activations of the feed-forward components, aspects of the attention mechanism and to the KV cache. The result is a quantized model where all matrix multiplications are performed in 4-bits, without any channels identified for retention in higher precision. Our quantized LLaMa2-70B model has losses of at most 0.29 WikiText-2 perplexity and retains 99% of the zero-shot performance. Code is available at: https://github.com/spcl/QuaRot.

In software development through integrated development environments (IDEs), code completion is one of the most widely used features. Nevertheless, majority of integrated development environments only support completion of methods and APIs, or arguments. In this paper, we introduce IntelliCode Compose - a general-purpose multilingual code completion tool which is capable of predicting sequences of code tokens of arbitrary types, generating up to entire lines of syntactically correct code. It leverages state-of-the-art generative transformer model trained on 1.2 billion lines of source code in Python, C#, JavaScript and TypeScript programming languages. IntelliCode Compose is deployed as a cloud-based web service. It makes use of client-side tree-based caching, efficient parallel implementation of the beam search decoder, and compute graph optimizations to meet edit-time completion suggestion requirements in the Visual Studio Code IDE and Azure Notebook. Our best model yields an average edit similarity of 86.7% and a perplexity of 1.82 for Python programming language.

This study explores the potential of fine-tuning foundational English Large Language Models (LLMs) for generating Polish text. The first step involves Language Adaptive Pre-training (LAPT) on a high-quality dataset of 3.11 GB, consisting of 276 million Polish tokens. The LAPT is followed by additional fine-tuning aimed at solving nine KLEJ challenges. Our trained model Curie-7B-v1 not only generates Polish text with the lowest perplexity of 3.02 among decoder-based Polish models but also closely rivals the performance of the best Polish encoder-decoder models with a less than 2% gap on 8 out of 9 tasks. Curie-7B-v1 used approximately 2-3% of a typical dataset size to learn Polish. The LAPT was completed in less than five days using a consumer GPU, highlighting the method's efficiency. The proficiency of the model in Polish was significantly enhanced, demonstrating the viability of this approach for adding new languages to existing LLMs by training just 1.2% of its parameters. To contribute to the community's collaborative progress, the model has been released as open-source.

Transformer-based language models have found many diverse applications requiring them to process sequences of increasing length. For these applications, the causal self-attention -- which is the only component scaling quadratically w.r.t. the sequence length -- becomes a central concern. While many works have proposed schemes to sparsify the attention patterns and reduce the computational overhead of self-attention, those are often limited by implementations concerns and end up imposing a simple and static structure over the attention matrix. Conversely, implementing more dynamic sparse attentions often results in runtimes significantly slower than computing the full attention using the Flash implementation from Dao et al. (2022). We extend FlashAttention to accommodate a large class of attention sparsity patterns that, in particular, encompass key/query dropping and hashing-based attention. This leads to implementations with no computational complexity overhead and a multi-fold runtime speedup on top of FlashAttention. Even with relatively low degrees of sparsity, our method improves visibly upon FlashAttention as the sequence length increases. Without sacrificing perplexity, we increase the training speed of a transformer language model by 2.0times and 3.3times for sequences of respectively 8k and 16k tokens.

Contextual memory integration remains a high challenge in the development of language models, particularly in tasks that require maintaining coherence over extended sequences. Traditional approaches, such as self-attention mechanisms and memory-augmented architectures, often prioritize short-term dependencies, leading to fragmentation and inconsistency in long-range contextual understanding. Inspired by principles of synaptic plasticity observed in biological neural systems, a novel mechanism, Synaptic Resonance, is introduced to dynamically reinforce relevant memory pathways during training and inference. Unlike static memory representations, this mechanism continuously adjusts synaptic weight matrices based on contextual relevance, allowing for improved information retention without excessive computational overhead. Evaluations conducted on an open-source language model demonstrate reductions in perplexity, enhancements in contextual coherence, and increased robustness against input noise, highlighting the effectiveness of reinforcement-driven memory modulation. Comparative analysis against baseline models further reveals that the proposed approach achieves higher memory retention efficiency while maintaining computational feasibility. The architectural modifications integrate seamlessly into existing transformer-based frameworks, ensuring stable convergence and efficient inference without sacrificing scalability. Applications benefiting from improved long-term contextual consistency, such as dialogue systems and document summarization, stand to gain from this approach. Empirical findings suggest that dynamically reinforced memory pathways offer a promising alternative to conventional memory mechanisms, addressing longstanding limitations in extended sequence modeling.

Despite their groundbreaking performance for many generative modeling tasks, diffusion models have fallen short on discrete data domains such as natural language. Crucially, standard diffusion models rely on the well-established theory of score matching, but efforts to generalize this to discrete structures have not yielded the same empirical gains. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing score entropy, a novel loss that naturally extends score matching to discrete spaces, integrates seamlessly to build discrete diffusion models, and significantly boosts performance. Experimentally, we test our Score Entropy Discrete Diffusion models (SEDD) on standard language modeling tasks. For comparable model sizes, SEDD beats existing language diffusion paradigms (reducing perplexity by 25-75\%) and is competitive with autoregressive models, in particular outperforming GPT-2. Furthermore, compared to autoregressive mdoels, SEDD generates faithful text without requiring distribution annealing techniques like temperature scaling (around 6-8times better generative perplexity than un-annealed GPT-2), can trade compute and quality (similar quality with 32times fewer network evaluations), and enables controllable infilling (matching nucleus sampling quality while enabling other strategies besides left to right prompting).

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. However, single-shot inference often yields unreliable results for complex reasoning tasks, leading researchers to explore multiple reasoning paths through methods such as perplexity and self-consistency. In this paper, we present the first theoretical error decomposition analysis of these techniques, breaking down their error into estimation error and model error. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off: perplexity methods suffer from substantial model error due to the absence of a proper consistency function, while self-consistency exhibits high estimation error due to a slow error convergence rate. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reasoning-Pruning Perplexity Consistency (RPC). This approach combines Perplexity Consistency, which seamlessly integrates LLM perplexity with self-consistency, and Reasoning Pruning, which eliminates low-probability reasoning paths to effectively prevent the degeneration of estimation error reduction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RPC not only accelerates the convergence rate of estimation error to an exponential level but also holds strong potential for further reducing model error. Extensive empirical evaluations on seven benchmark datasets confirm that RPC can significantly improve reasoning performance, sample efficiency, and confidence reliability.

While protein language models (pLMs) have transformed biological research, the scaling laws governing their improvement remain underexplored. By adapting methodologies from NLP scaling laws, we investigated the optimal ratio between model parameters and training tokens within a fixed compute budget. Our study reveals that pLM sizes scale sublinearly with compute budget, showing diminishing returns in performance as model size increases, and we identify a performance plateau in training loss comparable to the one found in relevant works in the field. Our findings suggest that widely-used pLMs might not be compute-optimal, indicating that larger models could achieve convergence more efficiently. Training a 35M model on a reduced token set, we attained perplexity results comparable to larger models like ESM-2 (15B) and xTrimoPGLM (100B) with a single dataset pass. This work paves the way towards more compute-efficient pLMs, democratizing their training and practical application in computational biology.

In the pursuit of reducing the number of trainable parameters in deep transformer networks, we employ Reinforcement Learning to dynamically select layers during training and tie them together. Every few iterations, the RL agent is asked whether to train each layer i independently or to copy the weights of a previous layer j<i. This facilitates weight sharing, reduces the number of trainable parameters, and also serves as an effective regularization technique. Experimental evaluations validate that our model modestly outperforms the baseline transformer model with regard to perplexity and drastically reduces the number of trainable parameters. In particular, the memory consumption during training is up to one order of magnitude less than the conventional training method.

We present LongQLoRA, an efficient and effective method to extend context length of large language models with less training resources. LongQLoRA combines the advantages of Position Interpolation, QLoRA and Shift Short Attention of LongLoRA. With a single 32GB V100 GPU, LongQLoRA can extend the context length of LLaMA2 7B and 13B from 4096 to 8192 and even to 12k within 1000 finetuning steps. LongQLoRA achieves competitive perplexity performance on PG19 and Proof-pile datasets, our model outperforms LongLoRA and is very close to MPT-7B-8K within the evaluation context length of 8192. We collect and build 39k long instruction data to extend context length of Vicuna-13B from 4096 to 8192 and achieve good performance both in long and short context generation task. We also do some ablation experiments to study the effect of LoRA rank, finetuning steps and attention patterns in inference.The model weights, training data and code are avaliable at https://github.com/yangjianxin1/LongQLoRA.

Self-attention has recently been adopted for a wide range of sequence modeling problems. Despite its effectiveness, self-attention suffers from quadratic compute and memory requirements with respect to sequence length. Successful approaches to reduce this complexity focused on attending to local sliding windows or a small set of locations independent of content. Our work proposes to learn dynamic sparse attention patterns that avoid allocating computation and memory to attend to content unrelated to the query of interest. This work builds upon two lines of research: it combines the modeling flexibility of prior work on content-based sparse attention with the efficiency gains from approaches based on local, temporal sparse attention. Our model, the Routing Transformer, endows self-attention with a sparse routing module based on online k-means while reducing the overall complexity of attention to Oleft(n^{1.5}dright) from Oleft(n^2dright) for sequence length n and hidden dimension d. We show that our model outperforms comparable sparse attention models on language modeling on Wikitext-103 (15.8 vs 18.3 perplexity) as well as on image generation on ImageNet-64 (3.43 vs 3.44 bits/dim) while using fewer self-attention layers. Additionally, we set a new state-of-the-art on the newly released PG-19 data-set, obtaining a test perplexity of 33.2 with a 22 layer Routing Transformer model trained on sequences of length 8192.

Recent neural network sequence models with softmax classifiers have achieved their best language modeling performance only with very large hidden states and large vocabularies. Even then they struggle to predict rare or unseen words even if the context makes the prediction unambiguous. We introduce the pointer sentinel mixture architecture for neural sequence models which has the ability to either reproduce a word from the recent context or produce a word from a standard softmax classifier. Our pointer sentinel-LSTM model achieves state of the art language modeling performance on the Penn Treebank (70.9 perplexity) while using far fewer parameters than a standard softmax LSTM. In order to evaluate how well language models can exploit longer contexts and deal with more realistic vocabularies and larger corpora we also introduce the freely available WikiText corpus.

Extending the context length of Language Models (LMs) by improving Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) has become a trend. While existing works mainly address RoPE's limitations within attention mechanism, this paper provides an analysis across nearly all parts of LMs, uncovering their adverse effects on length generalization for RoPE-based attention. Using Discrete Signal Processing theory, we show that RoPE enables periodic attention by implicitly achieving Non-Uniform Discrete Fourier Transform. However, this periodicity is undermined by the spectral damage caused by: 1) linear layers and activation functions outside of attention; 2) insufficiently trained frequency components brought by time-domain truncation. Building on our observations, we propose Fourier Position Embedding (FoPE), which enhances attention's frequency-domain properties to improve both its periodic extension and length generalization. FoPE constructs Fourier Series and zero-outs the destructive frequency components, increasing model robustness against the spectrum damage. Experiments across various model scales show that, within varying context windows, FoPE can maintain a more stable perplexity and a more consistent accuracy in a needle-in-haystack task compared to RoPE and ALiBi. Several analyses and ablations bring further support to our method and theoretical modeling.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

Transformers with linear attention (i.e., linear transformers) and state-space models have recently been suggested as a viable linear-time alternative to transformers with softmax attention. However, these models still underperform transformers especially on tasks that require in-context retrieval. While more expressive variants of linear transformers which replace the additive outer-product update in linear transformers with the delta rule have been found to be more effective at associative recall, existing algorithms for training such models do not parallelize over sequence length and are thus inefficient to train on modern hardware. This work describes a hardware-efficient algorithm for training linear transformers with the delta rule, which exploits a memory-efficient representation for computing products of Householder matrices. This algorithm allows us to scale up DeltaNet to standard language modeling settings. We train a 1.3B model for 100B tokens and find that it outperforms recent linear-time baselines such as Mamba and GLA in terms of perplexity and zero-shot performance on downstream tasks (including on tasks that focus on recall). We also experiment with two hybrid models which combine DeltaNet layers with (1) sliding-window attention layers every other layer or (2) two global attention layers, and find that these hybrid models outperform strong transformer baselines.

We study continued training and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of a language model (LM) to make effective use of long-context information. We first establish a reliable evaluation protocol to guide model development -- Instead of perplexity or simple needle-in-a-haystack (NIAH) tests, we use a broad set of long-context tasks, and we evaluate models after SFT with instruction data as this better reveals long-context abilities. Supported by our robust evaluations, we run thorough experiments to decide the data mix for continued pre-training, the instruction tuning dataset, and many other design choices. We find that (1) code repositories and books are excellent sources of long data, but it is crucial to combine them with high-quality short data; (2) training with a sequence length beyond the evaluation length boosts long-context performance; (3) for SFT, using only short instruction datasets yields strong performance on long-context tasks. Our final model, ProLong-8B, which is initialized from Llama-3 and trained on 40B tokens, demonstrates state-of-the-art long-context performance among similarly sized models at a length of 128K. ProLong outperforms Llama-3.18B-Instruct on the majority of long-context tasks despite having seen only 5% as many tokens during long-context training. Additionally, ProLong can effectively process up to 512K tokens, one of the longest context windows of publicly available LMs.

Pretraining auto-regressive large language models (LLMs) with retrieval demonstrates better perplexity and factual accuracy by leveraging external databases. However, the size of existing pretrained retrieval-augmented LLM is still limited (e.g., Retro has 7.5B parameters), which limits the effectiveness of instruction tuning and zero-shot generalization. In this work, we introduce Retro 48B, the largest LLM pretrained with retrieval before instruction tuning. Specifically, we continue to pretrain the 43B GPT model on additional 100 billion tokens using the Retro augmentation method by retrieving from 1.2 trillion tokens. The obtained foundation model, Retro 48B, largely outperforms the original 43B GPT in terms of perplexity. After instruction tuning on Retro, InstructRetro demonstrates significant improvement over the instruction tuned GPT on zero-shot question answering (QA) tasks. Specifically, the average improvement of InstructRetro is 7% over its GPT counterpart across 8 short-form QA tasks, and 10% over GPT across 4 challenging long-form QA tasks. Surprisingly, we find that one can ablate the encoder from InstructRetro architecture and directly use its decoder backbone, while achieving comparable results. We hypothesize that pretraining with retrieval makes its decoder good at incorporating context for QA. Our results highlights the promising direction to obtain a better GPT decoder for QA through continued pretraining with retrieval before instruction tuning.

Self-supervised representation learning has proved to be a valuable component for out-of-distribution (OoD) detection with only the texts of in-distribution (ID) examples. These approaches either train a language model from scratch or fine-tune a pre-trained language model using ID examples, and then take the perplexity output by the language model as OoD scores. In this paper, we analyze the complementary characteristics of both OoD detection methods and propose a multi-level knowledge distillation approach that integrates their strengths while mitigating their limitations. Specifically, we use a fine-tuned model as the teacher to teach a randomly initialized student model on the ID examples. Besides the prediction layer distillation, we present a similarity-based intermediate layer distillation method to thoroughly explore the representation space of the teacher model. In this way, the learned student can better represent the ID data manifold while gaining a stronger ability to map OoD examples outside the ID data manifold with the regularization inherited from pre-training. Besides, the student model sees only ID examples during parameter learning, further promoting more distinguishable features for OoD detection. We conduct extensive experiments over multiple benchmark datasets, i.e., CLINC150, SST, ROSTD, 20 NewsGroups, and AG News; showing that the proposed method yields new state-of-the-art performance. We also explore its application as an AIGC detector to distinguish between answers generated by ChatGPT and human experts. It is observed that our model exceeds human evaluators in the pair-expert task on the Human ChatGPT Comparison Corpus.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing tasks. However, their practical application is constrained by substantial memory and computational demands. Post-training quantization (PTQ) is considered an effective method to accelerate LLM inference. Despite its growing popularity in LLM model compression, PTQ deployment faces two major challenges. First, low-bit quantization leads to performance degradation. Second, restricted by the limited integer computing unit type on GPUs, quantized matrix operations with different precisions cannot be effectively accelerated. To address these issues, we introduce a novel arbitrary-bit quantization algorithm and inference framework, ABQ-LLM. It achieves superior performance across various quantization settings and enables efficient arbitrary-precision quantized inference on the GPU. ABQ-LLM introduces several key innovations: (1) a distribution correction method for transformer blocks to mitigate distribution differences caused by full quantization of weights and activations, improving performance at low bit-widths. (2) the bit balance strategy to counteract performance degradation from asymmetric distribution issues at very low bit-widths (e.g., 2-bit). (3) an innovative quantization acceleration framework that reconstructs the quantization matrix multiplication of arbitrary precision combinations based on BTC (Binary TensorCore) equivalents, gets rid of the limitations of INT4/INT8 computing units. ABQ-LLM can convert each component bit width gain into actual acceleration gain, maximizing performance under mixed precision(e.g., W6A6, W2A8). Based on W2*A8 quantization configuration on LLaMA-7B model, it achieved a WikiText2 perplexity of 7.59 (2.17downarrow vs 9.76 in AffineQuant). Compared to SmoothQuant, we realized 1.6times acceleration improvement and 2.7times memory compression gain.

Language models have become the backbone of today's AI systems. However, their predominant left-to-right generation limits the use of bidirectional context, which is essential for tasks that involve filling text in the middle. We propose the Fill-in Language Model (FiLM), a new language modeling approach that allows for flexible generation at any position without adhering to a specific generation order. Its training extends the masked language modeling objective by adopting varying mask probabilities sampled from the Beta distribution to enhance the generative capabilities of FiLM. During inference, FiLM can seamlessly insert missing phrases, sentences, or paragraphs, ensuring that the outputs are fluent and are coherent with the surrounding context. In both automatic and human evaluations, FiLM outperforms existing infilling methods that rely on left-to-right language models trained on rearranged text segments. FiLM is easy to implement and can be either trained from scratch or fine-tuned from a left-to-right language model. Notably, as the model size grows, FiLM's perplexity approaches that of strong left-to-right language models of similar sizes, indicating FiLM's scalability and potential as a large language model.

Large language models (LLMs), while transformative for NLP, come with significant computational demands, underlining the need for efficient, training-free compression. Notably, the reliability of perplexity as a benchmark for compressed model efficacy is in question, as our tests using LLaMA-7B and OPT-6.7b reveal a significant performance drop in several realistic downstream tasks, underscoring the disparity between perplexity as a performance indicator and real-world performance. Investigation into the trade-off between resource-intensive post-compression re-training highlights the prospect of prompt-driven recovery as a lightweight adaption tool. However, existing studies, confined mainly to perplexity evaluations and simple tasks, fail to offer unequivocal confidence in the scalability and generalizability of prompting. We tackle this uncertainty in two key ways. First, we uncover the vulnerability of naive prompts in LLM compression as an over-reliance on a singular prompt per input. In response, we propose inference-time dynamic prompting (IDP), a mechanism that autonomously chooses from a set of curated prompts based on the context of each individual input. Second, we delve into a scientific understanding of why ``prompting might be all you need post-LLM compression". Our findings suggest that compression doesn't irretrievably erase LLM model knowledge but displace it, necessitating a new inference path. IDP effectively redirects this path, enabling the model to tap into its inherent yet displaced knowledge and thereby recover performance. Empirical tests affirm the value of IDP, demonstrating an average performance improvement of 1.24% across nine varied tasks spanning multiple knowledge domains.

Transformers have become one of the most important architectural innovations in deep learning and have enabled many breakthroughs over the past few years. Here we propose a simple network architecture, gMLP, based on MLPs with gating, and show that it can perform as well as Transformers in key language and vision applications. Our comparisons show that self-attention is not critical for Vision Transformers, as gMLP can achieve the same accuracy. For BERT, our model achieves parity with Transformers on pretraining perplexity and is better on some downstream NLP tasks. On finetuning tasks where gMLP performs worse, making the gMLP model substantially larger can close the gap with Transformers. In general, our experiments show that gMLP can scale as well as Transformers over increased data and compute.

We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.

Unsupervised automatic speech recognition (ASR) aims to learn the mapping between the speech signal and its corresponding textual transcription without the supervision of paired speech-text data. A word/phoneme in the speech signal is represented by a segment of speech signal with variable length and unknown boundary, and this segmental structure makes learning the mapping between speech and text challenging, especially without paired data. In this paper, we propose REBORN, Reinforcement-Learned Boundary Segmentation with Iterative Training for Unsupervised ASR. REBORN alternates between (1) training a segmentation model that predicts the boundaries of the segmental structures in speech signals and (2) training the phoneme prediction model, whose input is a segmental structure segmented by the segmentation model, to predict a phoneme transcription. Since supervised data for training the segmentation model is not available, we use reinforcement learning to train the segmentation model to favor segmentations that yield phoneme sequence predictions with a lower perplexity. We conduct extensive experiments and find that under the same setting, REBORN outperforms all prior unsupervised ASR models on LibriSpeech, TIMIT, and five non-English languages in Multilingual LibriSpeech. We comprehensively analyze why the boundaries learned by REBORN improve the unsupervised ASR performance.

Before deploying a language model (LM) within a given domain, it is important to measure its tendency to generate factually incorrect information in that domain. Existing factual generation evaluation methods focus on facts sampled from the LM itself, and thus do not control the set of evaluated facts and might under-represent rare and unlikely facts. We propose FACTOR: Factual Assessment via Corpus TransfORmation, a scalable approach for evaluating LM factuality. FACTOR automatically transforms a factual corpus of interest into a benchmark evaluating an LM's propensity to generate true facts from the corpus vs. similar but incorrect statements. We use our framework to create two benchmarks: Wiki-FACTOR and News-FACTOR. We show that: (i) our benchmark scores increase with model size and improve when the LM is augmented with retrieval; (ii) benchmark score correlates with perplexity, but the two metrics do not always agree on model ranking; and (iii) when perplexity and benchmark score disagree, the latter better reflects factuality in open-ended generation, as measured by human annotators. We make our data and code publicly available in https://github.com/AI21Labs/factor.

Since the introduction of the transformer model by Vaswani et al. (2017), a fundamental question has yet to be answered: how does a model achieve extrapolation at inference time for sequences that are longer than it saw during training? We first show that extrapolation can be enabled by simply changing the position representation method, though we find that current methods do not allow for efficient extrapolation. We therefore introduce a simpler and more efficient position method, Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi). ALiBi does not add positional embeddings to word embeddings; instead, it biases query-key attention scores with a penalty that is proportional to their distance. We show that this method trains a 1.3 billion parameter model on input sequences of length 1024 that extrapolates to input sequences of length 2048, achieving the same perplexity as a sinusoidal position embedding model trained on inputs of length 2048 but training 11% faster and using 11% less memory. ALiBi's inductive bias towards recency also leads it to outperform multiple strong position methods on the WikiText-103 benchmark.

Due to the rapid development of large language models, people increasingly often encounter texts that may start as written by a human but continue as machine-generated. Detecting the boundary between human-written and machine-generated parts of such texts is a challenging problem that has not received much attention in literature. We attempt to bridge this gap and examine several ways to adapt state of the art artificial text detection classifiers to the boundary detection setting. We push all detectors to their limits, using the Real or Fake text benchmark that contains short texts on several topics and includes generations of various language models. We use this diversity to deeply examine the robustness of all detectors in cross-domain and cross-model settings to provide baselines and insights for future research. In particular, we find that perplexity-based approaches to boundary detection tend to be more robust to peculiarities of domain-specific data than supervised fine-tuning of the RoBERTa model; we also find which features of the text confuse boundary detection algorithms and negatively influence their performance in cross-domain settings.

Token embeddings, a mapping from discrete lexical symbols to continuous vectors, are at the heart of any language model (LM). However, lexical symbol meanings can also be determined and even redefined by their structural role in a long context. In this paper, we ask: is it possible for a language model to be performant without any fixed token embeddings? Such a language model would have to rely entirely on the co-occurence and repetition of tokens in the context rather than the a priori identity of any token. To answer this, we study lexinvariantlanguage models that are invariant to lexical symbols and therefore do not need fixed token embeddings in practice. First, we prove that we can construct a lexinvariant LM to converge to the true language model at a uniform rate that is polynomial in terms of the context length, with a constant factor that is sublinear in the vocabulary size. Second, to build a lexinvariant LM, we simply encode tokens using random Gaussian vectors, such that each token maps to the same representation within each sequence but different representations across sequences. Empirically, we demonstrate that it can indeed attain perplexity comparable to that of a standard language model, given a sufficiently long context. We further explore two properties of the lexinvariant language models: First, given text generated from a substitution cipher of English, it implicitly implements Bayesian in-context deciphering and infers the mapping to the underlying real tokens with high accuracy. Second, it has on average 4X better accuracy over synthetic in-context reasoning tasks. Finally, we discuss regularizing standard language models towards lexinvariance and potential practical applications.

Despite remarkable progress in autoregressive language models, alternative generative paradigms beyond left-to-right generation are still being actively explored. Discrete diffusion models, with the capacity for parallel generation, have recently emerged as a promising alternative. Unfortunately, these models still underperform the autoregressive counterparts, with the performance gap increasing when reducing the number of sampling steps. Our analysis reveals that this degradation is a consequence of an imperfect approximation used by diffusion models. In this work, we propose Energy-based Diffusion Language Model (EDLM), an energy-based model operating at the full sequence level for each diffusion step, introduced to improve the underlying approximation used by diffusion models. More specifically, we introduce an EBM in a residual form, and show that its parameters can be obtained by leveraging a pretrained autoregressive model or by finetuning a bidirectional transformer via noise contrastive estimation. We also propose an efficient generation algorithm via parallel important sampling. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks show that our model can consistently outperform state-of-the-art diffusion models by a significant margin, and approaches autoregressive models' perplexity. We further show that, without any generation performance drop, our framework offers a 1.3times sampling speedup over existing diffusion models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are distinguished by their massive parameter counts, which typically result in significant redundancy. This work introduces MaskLLM, a learnable pruning method that establishes Semi-structured (or ``N:M'') Sparsity in LLMs, aimed at reducing computational overhead during inference. Instead of developing a new importance criterion, MaskLLM explicitly models N:M patterns as a learnable distribution through Gumbel Softmax sampling. This approach facilitates end-to-end training on large-scale datasets and offers two notable advantages: 1) High-quality Masks - our method effectively scales to large datasets and learns accurate masks; 2) Transferability - the probabilistic modeling of mask distribution enables the transfer learning of sparsity across domains or tasks. We assessed MaskLLM using 2:4 sparsity on various LLMs, including LLaMA-2, Nemotron-4, and GPT-3, with sizes ranging from 843M to 15B parameters, and our empirical results show substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods. For instance, leading approaches achieve a perplexity (PPL) of 10 or greater on Wikitext compared to the dense model's 5.12 PPL, but MaskLLM achieves a significantly lower 6.72 PPL solely by learning the masks with frozen weights. Furthermore, MaskLLM's learnable nature allows customized masks for lossless application of 2:4 sparsity to downstream tasks or domains. Code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/MaskLLM.

The transformer architecture by Vaswani et al. (2017) is now ubiquitous across application domains, from natural language processing to speech processing and image understanding. We propose DenseFormer, a simple modification to the standard architecture that improves the perplexity of the model without increasing its size -- adding a few thousand parameters for large-scale models in the 100B parameters range. Our approach relies on an additional averaging step after each transformer block, which computes a weighted average of current and past representations -- we refer to this operation as Depth-Weighted-Average (DWA). The learned DWA weights exhibit coherent patterns of information flow, revealing the strong and structured reuse of activations from distant layers. Experiments demonstrate that DenseFormer is more data efficient, reaching the same perplexity of much deeper transformer models, and that for the same perplexity, these new models outperform transformer baselines in terms of memory efficiency and inference time.

Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in language tasks but face two significant bottlenecks: (1) quadratic complexity in the attention module as the number of tokens increases, and (2) limited efficiency due to the sequential processing nature of autoregressive LLMs during generation. While linear attention and speculative decoding offer potential solutions, their applicability and synergistic potential for enhancing autoregressive LLMs remain uncertain. We conduct the first comprehensive study on the efficacy of existing linear attention methods for autoregressive LLMs, integrating them with speculative decoding. We introduce an augmentation technique for linear attention that ensures compatibility with speculative decoding, enabling more efficient training and serving of LLMs. Extensive experiments and ablation studies involving seven existing linear attention models and five encoder/decoder-based LLMs consistently validate the effectiveness of our augmented linearized LLMs. Notably, our approach achieves up to a 6.67 reduction in perplexity on the LLaMA model and up to a 2times speedup during generation compared to prior linear attention methods. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/GATECH-EIC/Linearized-LLM.

This work presents a Fully BInarized Large Language Model (FBI-LLM), demonstrating for the first time how to train a large-scale binary language model from scratch (not the partial binary or ternary LLM like BitNet b1.58) to match the performance of its full-precision counterparts (e.g., FP16 or BF16) in transformer-based LLMs. It achieves this by employing an autoregressive distillation (AD) loss with maintaining equivalent model dimensions (130M, 1.3B, 7B) and training data volume as regular LLM pretraining, while delivering competitive results in terms of perplexity and task-specific effectiveness. Intriguingly, by analyzing the training trajectory, we find that the pretrained weight is not necessary for training binarized LLMs from scratch. This research encourages a new computational framework and may facilitate the future design of specialized hardware tailored for fully 1-bit LLMs. We make all models, code, and training dataset fully accessible and transparent to support further research (Code: https://github.com/LiqunMa/FBI-LLM. Model: https://huggingface.co/LiqunMa/).

When predicting the next token in a sequence, vanilla transformers compute attention over all previous tokens, resulting in quadratic scaling of compute with sequence length. State-space models compress the entire sequence of tokens into a fixed-dimensional representation to improve efficiency, while other architectures achieve sub-quadratic complexity via low-rank projections or sparse attention patterns over the sequence. In this paper, we introduce Attamba, a novel architecture that uses state-space models to compress chunks of tokens and applies attention on these compressed key-value representations. We find that replacing key and value projections in a transformer with SSMs can improve model quality and enable flexible token chunking, resulting in 24% improved perplexity with transformer of similar KV-Cache and attention footprint, and ~4 times smaller KV-Cache and Attention FLOPs for 5% perplexity trade-off. Attamba can perform attention on chunked-sequences of variable length, enabling a smooth transition between quadratic and linear scaling, offering adaptable efficiency gains.

The significant resource requirements associated with Large-scale Language Models (LLMs) have generated considerable interest in the development of techniques aimed at compressing and accelerating neural networks. Among these techniques, Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) has emerged as a subject of considerable interest due to its noteworthy compression efficiency and cost-effectiveness in the context of training. Existing PTQ methods for LLMs limit the optimization scope to scaling transformations between pre- and post-quantization weights. In this paper, we advocate for the direct optimization using equivalent Affine transformations in PTQ (AffineQuant). This approach extends the optimization scope and thus significantly minimizing quantization errors. Additionally, by employing the corresponding inverse matrix, we can ensure equivalence between the pre- and post-quantization outputs of PTQ, thereby maintaining its efficiency and generalization capabilities. To ensure the invertibility of the transformation during optimization, we further introduce a gradual mask optimization method. This method initially focuses on optimizing the diagonal elements and gradually extends to the other elements. Such an approach aligns with the Levy-Desplanques theorem, theoretically ensuring invertibility of the transformation. As a result, significant performance improvements are evident across different LLMs on diverse datasets. To illustrate, we attain a C4 perplexity of 15.76 (2.26 lower vs 18.02 in OmniQuant) on the LLaMA2-7B model of W4A4 quantization without overhead. On zero-shot tasks, AffineQuant achieves an average of 58.61 accuracy (1.98 lower vs 56.63 in OmniQuant) when using 4/4-bit quantization for LLaMA-30B, which setting a new state-of-the-art benchmark for PTQ in LLMs.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), such as long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), serve as a fundamental building block for many sequence learning tasks, including machine translation, language modeling, and question answering. In this paper, we consider the specific problem of word-level language modeling and investigate strategies for regularizing and optimizing LSTM-based models. We propose the weight-dropped LSTM which uses DropConnect on hidden-to-hidden weights as a form of recurrent regularization. Further, we introduce NT-ASGD, a variant of the averaged stochastic gradient method, wherein the averaging trigger is determined using a non-monotonic condition as opposed to being tuned by the user. Using these and other regularization strategies, we achieve state-of-the-art word level perplexities on two data sets: 57.3 on Penn Treebank and 65.8 on WikiText-2. In exploring the effectiveness of a neural cache in conjunction with our proposed model, we achieve an even lower state-of-the-art perplexity of 52.8 on Penn Treebank and 52.0 on WikiText-2.

This paper comprehensively evaluates several recently proposed optimizers for 4-bit training, revealing that low-bit precision amplifies sensitivity to learning rates and often causes unstable gradient norms, leading to divergence at higher learning rates. Among these, SPAM, a recent optimizer featuring momentum reset and spike-aware gradient clipping, achieves the best performance across various bit levels, but struggles to stabilize gradient norms, requiring careful learning rate tuning. To address these limitations, we propose Stable-SPAM, which incorporates enhanced gradient normalization and clipping techniques. In particular, Stable-SPAM (1) adaptively updates the clipping threshold for spiked gradients by tracking their historical maxima; (2) normalizes the entire gradient matrix based on its historical l_2-norm statistics; and (3) inherits momentum reset from SPAM to periodically reset the first and second moments of Adam, mitigating the accumulation of spiked gradients. Extensive experiments show that Stable-SPAM effectively stabilizes gradient norms in 4-bit LLM training, delivering superior performance compared to Adam and SPAM. Notably, our 4-bit LLaMA-1B model trained with Stable-SPAM outperforms the BF16 LLaMA-1B trained with Adam by up to 2 perplexity. Furthermore, when both models are trained in 4-bit, Stable-SPAM achieves the same loss as Adam while requiring only about half the training steps. Code is available at https://github.com/TianjinYellow/StableSPAM.git.

Recent research, such as BitNet, is paving the way for a new era of 1-bit Large Language Models (LLMs). In this work, we introduce a 1-bit LLM variant, namely BitNet b1.58, in which every single parameter (or weight) of the LLM is ternary {-1, 0, 1}. It matches the full-precision (i.e., FP16 or BF16) Transformer LLM with the same model size and training tokens in terms of both perplexity and end-task performance, while being significantly more cost-effective in terms of latency, memory, throughput, and energy consumption. More profoundly, the 1.58-bit LLM defines a new scaling law and recipe for training new generations of LLMs that are both high-performance and cost-effective. Furthermore, it enables a new computation paradigm and opens the door for designing specific hardware optimized for 1-bit LLMs.

Amid the expanding use of pre-training data, the phenomenon of benchmark dataset leakage has become increasingly prominent, exacerbated by opaque training processes and the often undisclosed inclusion of supervised data in contemporary Large Language Models (LLMs). This issue skews benchmark effectiveness and fosters potentially unfair comparisons, impeding the field's healthy development. To address this, we introduce a detection pipeline utilizing Perplexity and N-gram accuracy, two simple and scalable metrics that gauge a model's prediction precision on benchmark, to identify potential data leakages. By analyzing 31 LLMs under the context of mathematical reasoning, we reveal substantial instances of training even test set misuse, resulting in potentially unfair comparisons. These findings prompt us to offer several recommendations regarding model documentation, benchmark setup, and future evaluations. Notably, we propose the "Benchmark Transparency Card" to encourage clear documentation of benchmark utilization, promoting transparency and healthy developments of LLMs. we have made our leaderboard, pipeline implementation, and model predictions publicly available, fostering future research.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance in natural language understanding but require substantial computation and memory resources. Post-training quantization (PTQ) is a powerful compression technique extensively investigated in LLMs. However, existing PTQ methods are still not ideal in terms of accuracy and efficiency, especially with below 4 bit-widths. Standard PTQ methods using group-wise quantization suffer difficulties in quantizing LLMs accurately to such low-bit, but advanced methods remaining high-precision weights element-wisely are hard to realize their theoretical hardware efficiency. This paper presents a Salience-Driven Mixed-Precision Quantization scheme for LLMs, namely SliM-LLM. The scheme exploits the salience distribution of weights to determine optimal bit-width and quantizers for accurate LLM quantization, while aligning bit-width partition to groups for compact memory usage and fast integer inference. Specifically, the proposed SliM-LLM mainly relies on two novel techniques: (1) Salience-Determined Bit Allocation utilizes the clustering characteristics of salience distribution to allocate the bit-widths of each group, increasing the accuracy of quantized LLMs and maintaining the inference efficiency; (2) Salience-Weighted Quantizer Calibration optimizes the parameters of the quantizer by considering the element-wise salience within the group, balancing the maintenance of salient information and minimization of errors. Comprehensive experiments show that SliM-LLM significantly improves the accuracy of LLMs at ultra-low bits, e.g., 2-bit LLaMA-7B achieves a 5.5-times memory-saving than original model on NVIDIA A800 GPUs, and 48% decrease of perplexity compared to the state-of-the-art gradient-free PTQ method. Moreover, SliM-LLM+, which is integrated from the extension of SliM-LLM with gradient-based quantizers, further reduces perplexity by 35.1%.

To build large language models for Ukrainian we need to expand our corpora with large amounts of new algorithmic tasks expressed in natural language. Examples of task performance expressed in English are abundant, so with a high-quality translation system our community will be enabled to curate datasets faster. To aid this goal, we introduce a recipe to build a translation system using supervised finetuning of a large pretrained language model with a noisy parallel dataset of 3M pairs of Ukrainian and English sentences followed by a second phase of training using 17K examples selected by k-fold perplexity filtering on another dataset of higher quality. Our decoder-only model named Dragoman beats performance of previous state of the art encoder-decoder models on the FLORES devtest set.

Code large language models mark a pivotal breakthrough in artificial intelligence. They are specifically crafted to understand and generate programming languages, significantly boosting the efficiency of coding development workflows. In this technical report, we present CodeShell-Base, a seven billion-parameter foundation model with 8K context length, showcasing exceptional proficiency in code comprehension. By incorporating Grouped-Query Attention and Rotary Positional Embedding into GPT-2, CodeShell-Base integrates the structural merits of StarCoder and CodeLlama and forms its unique architectural design. We then carefully built a comprehensive data pre-processing process, including similar data deduplication, perplexity-based data filtering, and model-based data filtering. Through this process, We have curated 100 billion high-quality pre-training data from GitHub. Benefiting from the high-quality data, CodeShell-Base outperforms CodeLlama in Humaneval after training on just 500 billion tokens (5 epochs). We have conducted extensive experiments across multiple language datasets, including Python, Java, and C++, and the results indicate that our model possesses robust foundational capabilities in code comprehension and generation.

The performance emergence of large language models (LLMs) driven by data scaling laws makes the selection of pre-training data increasingly important. However, existing methods rely on limited heuristics and human intuition, lacking comprehensive and clear guidelines. To address this, we are inspired by ``reverse thinking'' -- prompting LLMs to self-identify which criteria benefit its performance. As its pre-training capabilities are related to perplexity (PPL), we derive 14 quality criteria from the causes of text perplexity anomalies and introduce 15 common application domains to support domain mixing. In this paper, we train a Data Manager (DataMan) to learn quality ratings and domain recognition from pointwise rating, and use it to annotate a 447B token pre-training corpus with 14 quality ratings and domain type. Our experiments validate our approach, using DataMan to select 30B tokens to train a 1.3B-parameter language model, demonstrating significant improvements in in-context learning (ICL), perplexity, and instruction-following ability over the state-of-the-art baseline. The best-performing model, based on the Overall Score l=5 surpasses a model trained with 50% more data using uniform sampling. We continue pre-training with high-rated, domain-specific data annotated by DataMan to enhance domain-specific ICL performance and thus verify DataMan's domain mixing ability. Our findings emphasize the importance of quality ranking, the complementary nature of quality criteria, and their low correlation with perplexity, analyzing misalignment between PPL and ICL performance. We also thoroughly analyzed our pre-training dataset, examining its composition, the distribution of quality ratings, and the original document sources.

Training data compositions for Large Language Models (LLMs) can significantly affect their downstream performance. However, a thorough data ablation study exploring large sets of candidate data mixtures is typically prohibitively expensive since the full effect is seen only after training the models; this can lead practitioners to settle for sub-optimal data mixtures. We propose an efficient method for approximating data ablations which trains individual models on subsets of a training corpus and reuses them across evaluations of combinations of subsets. In continued pre-training experiments, we find that, given an arbitrary evaluation set, the perplexity score of a single model trained on a candidate set of data is strongly correlated with perplexity scores of parameter averages of models trained on distinct partitions of that data. From this finding, we posit that researchers and practitioners can conduct inexpensive simulations of data ablations by maintaining a pool of models that were each trained on partitions of a large training corpus, and assessing candidate data mixtures by evaluating parameter averages of combinations of these models. This approach allows for substantial improvements in amortized training efficiency -- scaling only linearly with respect to new data -- by enabling reuse of previous training computation, opening new avenues for improving model performance through rigorous, incremental data assessment and mixing.

In infilling tasks, sub-tokens, representing instances where a complete token is segmented into two parts, often emerge at the boundaries of prefixes, middles, and suffixes. Traditional methods focused on training models at the token level, leading to sub-optimal performance in character-level infilling tasks during the inference stage. Alternately, some approaches considered character-level infilling, but they relied on predicting sub-tokens in inference, yet this strategy diminished ability in character-level infilling tasks due to the large perplexity of the model on sub-tokens. In this paper, we introduce FIM-SE, which stands for Fill-In-the-Middle with both Starting and Ending character constraints. The proposed method addresses character-level infilling tasks by utilizing a line-level format to avoid predicting any sub-token in inference. In addition, we incorporate two special tokens to signify the rest of the incomplete lines, thereby enhancing generation guidance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed approach surpasses previous methods, offering a significant advantage. Code is available at https://github.com/SenseLLM/FIM-SE.

Large Language Models are traditionally finetuned on large instruction datasets. However recent studies suggest that small, high-quality datasets can suffice for general purpose instruction following. This lack of consensus surrounding finetuning best practices is in part due to rapidly diverging approaches to LLM evaluation. In this study, we ask whether a small amount of diverse finetuning samples can improve performance on both traditional perplexity-based NLP benchmarks, and on open-ended, model-based evaluation. We finetune open-source MPT-7B and MPT-30B models on instruction finetuning datasets of various sizes ranging from 1k to 60k samples. We find that subsets of 1k-6k instruction finetuning samples are sufficient to achieve good performance on both (1) traditional NLP benchmarks and (2) model-based evaluation. Finally, we show that mixing textbook-style and open-ended QA finetuning datasets optimizes performance on both evaluation paradigms.

Pre-trained language models (LMs) are shown to easily generate toxic language. In this work, we systematically explore domain-adaptive training to reduce the toxicity of language models. We conduct this study on three dimensions: training corpus, model size, and parameter efficiency. For the training corpus, we propose to leverage the generative power of LMs and generate nontoxic datasets for domain-adaptive training, which mitigates the exposure bias and is shown to be more data-efficient than using a curated pre-training corpus. We demonstrate that the self-generation method consistently outperforms the existing baselines across various model sizes on both automatic and human evaluations, even when it uses a 1/3 smaller training corpus. We then comprehensively study detoxifying LMs with parameter sizes ranging from 126M up to 530B (3x larger than GPT-3), a scale that has never been studied before. We find that i) large LMs have similar toxicity levels as smaller ones given the same pre-training corpus, and ii) large LMs require more endeavor to detoxify. We also explore parameter-efficient training methods for detoxification. We demonstrate that adding and training adapter-only layers in LMs not only saves a lot of parameters but also achieves a better trade-off between toxicity and perplexity than whole model adaptation for the large-scale models.

Caution: This paper includes offensive words that could potentially cause unpleasantness. The fast-paced evolution of generative language models such as GPT-4 has demonstrated outstanding results in various NLP generation tasks. However, due to the potential generation of offensive words related to race or gender, various Controllable Text Generation (CTG) methods have been proposed to mitigate the occurrence of harmful words. However, existing CTG methods not only reduce toxicity but also negatively impact several aspects of the language model's generation performance, including topic consistency, grammar, and perplexity. This paper explores the limitations of previous methods and introduces a novel solution in the form of a simple Gated Toxicity Avoidance (GTA) that can be applied to any CTG method. We also evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed GTA by comparing it with state-of-the-art CTG methods across various datasets. Our findings reveal that gated toxicity avoidance efficiently achieves comparable levels of toxicity reduction to the original CTG methods while preserving the generation performance of the language model.

LongRoPE2 is a novel approach that extends the effective context window of pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to the target length, while preserving the performance on the original shorter context window. This is achieved by three contributions: (1) a hypothesis that insufficient training in higher RoPE dimensions contributes to the persistent out-of-distribution (OOD) issues observed in existing methods; (2) an effective RoPE rescaling algorithm that adopts evolutionary search guided by "needle-driven" perplexity to address the insufficient training problem; (3) a mixed context window training approach that fine-tunes model weights to adopt rescaled RoPE for long-context sequences while preserving the short-context performance with the original RoPE. Extensive experiments on LLaMA3-8B and Phi3-mini-3.8B across various benchmarks validate the hypothesis and demonstrate the effectiveness of LongRoPE2. Remarkably, LongRoPE2 extends LLaMA3-8B to achieve a 128K effective context length while retaining over 98.5% of short-context performance, using only 10B tokens -- 80x fewer than Meta's approach, which fails to reach the target effective context length. Code will be available at https://github.com/microsoft/LongRoPE.

As the probability (and thus perplexity) of a text is calculated based on the product of the probabilities of individual tokens, it may happen that one unlikely token significantly reduces the probability (i.e., increase the perplexity) of some otherwise highly probable input, while potentially representing a simple typographical error. Also, given that perplexity is a scalar value that refers to the entire input, information about the probability distribution within it is lost in the calculation (a relatively good text that has one unlikely token and another text in which each token is equally likely they can have the same perplexity value), especially for longer texts. As an alternative to scalar perplexity this research proposes a simple algorithm used to calculate vector values based on n-gram perplexities within the input. Such representations consider the previously mentioned aspects, and instead of a unique value, the relative perplexity of each text token is calculated, and these values are combined into a single vector representing the input.

Ambiguous questions are a challenge for Question Answering models, as they require answers that cover multiple interpretations of the original query. To this end, these models are required to generate long-form answers that often combine conflicting pieces of information. Although recent advances in the field have shown strong capabilities in generating fluent responses, certain research questions remain unanswered. Does model/data scaling improve the answers' quality? Do automated metrics align with human judgment? To what extent do these models ground their answers in evidence? In this study, we aim to thoroughly investigate these aspects, and provide valuable insights into the limitations of the current approaches. To aid in reproducibility and further extension of our work, we open-source our code at https://github.com/din0s/ambig_lfqa.

Large language models have demonstrated impressive performance on challenging mathematical reasoning tasks, which has triggered the discussion of whether the performance is achieved by true reasoning capability or memorization. To investigate this question, prior work has constructed mathematical benchmarks when questions undergo simple perturbations -- modifications that still preserve the underlying reasoning patterns of the solutions. However, no work has explored hard perturbations, which fundamentally change the nature of the problem so that the original solution steps do not apply. To bridge the gap, we construct MATH-P-Simple and MATH-P-Hard via simple perturbation and hard perturbation, respectively. Each consists of 279 perturbed math problems derived from level-5 (hardest) problems in the MATH dataset (Hendrycksmath et. al., 2021). We observe significant performance drops on MATH-P-Hard across various models, including o1-mini (-16.49%) and gemini-2.0-flash-thinking (-12.9%). We also raise concerns about a novel form of memorization where models blindly apply learned problem-solving skills without assessing their applicability to modified contexts. This issue is amplified when using original problems for in-context learning. We call for research efforts to address this challenge, which is critical for developing more robust and reliable reasoning models.

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

We study the problem of designing models for machine learning tasks defined on sets. In contrast to traditional approach of operating on fixed dimensional vectors, we consider objective functions defined on sets that are invariant to permutations. Such problems are widespread, ranging from estimation of population statistics poczos13aistats, to anomaly detection in piezometer data of embankment dams Jung15Exploration, to cosmology Ntampaka16Dynamical,Ravanbakhsh16ICML1. Our main theorem characterizes the permutation invariant functions and provides a family of functions to which any permutation invariant objective function must belong. This family of functions has a special structure which enables us to design a deep network architecture that can operate on sets and which can be deployed on a variety of scenarios including both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks. We also derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for permutation equivariance in deep models. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on population statistic estimation, point cloud classification, set expansion, and outlier detection.

This research introduces a novel evaluation framework designed to assess large language models' (LLMs) ability to acknowledge uncertainty on 675 fundamentally unsolvable problems. Using a curated dataset of graduate-level grand challenge questions with intentionally unknowable answers, we evaluated twelve state-of-the-art LLMs, including both open and closed-source models, on their propensity to admit ignorance rather than generate plausible but incorrect responses. The best models scored in 62-68% accuracy ranges for admitting the problem solution was unknown in fields ranging from biology to philosophy and mathematics. We observed an inverse relationship between problem difficulty and model accuracy, with GPT-4 demonstrating higher rates of uncertainty acknowledgment on more challenging problems (35.8%) compared to simpler ones (20.0%). This pattern indicates that models may be more prone to generate speculative answers when problems appear more tractable. The study also revealed significant variations across problem categories, with models showing difficulty in acknowledging uncertainty in invention and NP-hard problems while performing relatively better on philosophical and psychological challenges. These results contribute to the growing body of research on artificial general intelligence (AGI) assessment by highlighting the importance of uncertainty recognition as a critical component of future machine intelligence evaluation. This impossibility test thus extends previous theoretical frameworks for universal intelligence testing by providing empirical evidence of current limitations in LLMs' ability to recognize their own knowledge boundaries, suggesting new directions for improving model training architectures and evaluation approaches.

In recent years, the community of 'explainable artificial intelligence' (XAI) has created a vast body of methods to bridge a perceived gap between model 'complexity' and 'interpretability'. However, a concrete problem to be solved by XAI methods has not yet been formally stated. As a result, XAI methods are lacking theoretical and empirical evidence for the 'correctness' of their explanations, limiting their potential use for quality-control and transparency purposes. At the same time, Haufe et al. (2014) showed, using simple toy examples, that even standard interpretations of linear models can be highly misleading. Specifically, high importance may be attributed to so-called suppressor variables lacking any statistical relation to the prediction target. This behavior has been confirmed empirically for a large array of XAI methods in Wilming et al. (2022). Here, we go one step further by deriving analytical expressions for the behavior of a variety of popular XAI methods on a simple two-dimensional binary classification problem involving Gaussian class-conditional distributions. We show that the majority of the studied approaches will attribute non-zero importance to a non-class-related suppressor feature in the presence of correlated noise. This poses important limitations on the interpretations and conclusions that the outputs of these XAI methods can afford.

When deploying large language models (LLMs), it is important to ensure that these models are not only capable, but also reliable. Many benchmarks have been created to track LLMs' growing capabilities, however there has been no similar focus on measuring their reliability. To understand the potential ramifications of this gap, we investigate how well current benchmarks quantify model reliability. We find that pervasive label errors can compromise these evaluations, obscuring lingering model failures and hiding unreliable behavior. Motivated by this gap in the evaluation of reliability, we then propose the concept of so-called platinum benchmarks, i.e., benchmarks carefully curated to minimize label errors and ambiguity. As a first attempt at constructing such benchmarks, we revise examples from fifteen existing popular benchmarks. We evaluate a wide range of models on these platinum benchmarks and find that, indeed, frontier LLMs still exhibit failures on simple tasks such as elementary-level math word problems. Analyzing these failures further reveals previously unidentified patterns of problems on which frontier models consistently struggle. We provide code at https://github.com/MadryLab/platinum-benchmarks

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, and a thought-provoking paper by Bubeck and Sellke has analyzed this phenomenon through the lens of over-parameterization: interpolating smoothly the data requires significantly more parameters than simply memorizing it. However, this "universal" law provides only a necessary condition for robustness, and it is unable to discriminate between models. In this paper, we address these gaps by focusing on empirical risk minimization in two prototypical settings, namely, random features and the neural tangent kernel (NTK). We prove that, for random features, the model is not robust for any degree of over-parameterization, even when the necessary condition coming from the universal law of robustness is satisfied. In contrast, for even activations, the NTK model meets the universal lower bound, and it is robust as soon as the necessary condition on over-parameterization is fulfilled. This also addresses a conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li and Nagaraj. Our analysis decouples the effect of the kernel of the model from an "interaction matrix", which describes the interaction with the test data and captures the effect of the activation. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical evidence on both synthetic and standard datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10).

Modern language models can imitate complex patterns through few-shot learning, enabling them to complete challenging tasks without fine-tuning. However, imitation can also lead models to reproduce inaccuracies or harmful content if present in the context. We study harmful imitation through the lens of a model's internal representations, and identify two related phenomena: "overthinking" and "false induction heads". The first phenomenon, overthinking, appears when we decode predictions from intermediate layers, given correct vs. incorrect few-shot demonstrations. At early layers, both demonstrations induce similar model behavior, but the behavior diverges sharply at some "critical layer", after which the accuracy given incorrect demonstrations progressively decreases. The second phenomenon, false induction heads, are a possible mechanistic cause of overthinking: these are heads in late layers that attend to and copy false information from previous demonstrations, and whose ablation reduces overthinking. Beyond scientific understanding, our results suggest that studying intermediate model computations could be a promising avenue for understanding and guarding against harmful model behaviors.

We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a time asymmetry in their ability to learn natural language: a difference in the average log-perplexity when trying to predict the next token versus when trying to predict the previous one. This difference is at the same time subtle and very consistent across various modalities (language, model size, training time, ...). Theoretically, this is surprising: from an information-theoretic point of view, there should be no such difference. We provide a theoretical framework to explain how such an asymmetry can appear from sparsity and computational complexity considerations, and outline a number of perspectives opened by our results.

Neural networks often pack many unrelated concepts into a single neuron - a puzzling phenomenon known as 'polysemanticity' which makes interpretability much more challenging. This paper provides a toy model where polysemanticity can be fully understood, arising as a result of models storing additional sparse features in "superposition." We demonstrate the existence of a phase change, a surprising connection to the geometry of uniform polytopes, and evidence of a link to adversarial examples. We also discuss potential implications for mechanistic interpretability.

Researchers have proposed a wide variety of model explanation approaches, but it remains unclear how most methods are related or when one method is preferable to another. We examine the literature and find that many methods are based on a shared principle of explaining by removing - essentially, measuring the impact of removing sets of features from a model. These methods vary in several respects, so we develop a framework for removal-based explanations that characterizes each method along three dimensions: 1) how the method removes features, 2) what model behavior the method explains, and 3) how the method summarizes each feature's influence. Our framework unifies 26 existing methods, including several of the most widely used approaches (SHAP, LIME, Meaningful Perturbations, permutation tests). Exposing the fundamental similarities between these methods empowers users to reason about which tools to use, and suggests promising directions for ongoing model explainability research.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the L_2 distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the L_2 distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Several machine learning models, including neural networks, consistently misclassify adversarial examples---inputs formed by applying small but intentionally worst-case perturbations to examples from the dataset, such that the perturbed input results in the model outputting an incorrect answer with high confidence. Early attempts at explaining this phenomenon focused on nonlinearity and overfitting. We argue instead that the primary cause of neural networks' vulnerability to adversarial perturbation is their linear nature. This explanation is supported by new quantitative results while giving the first explanation of the most intriguing fact about them: their generalization across architectures and training sets. Moreover, this view yields a simple and fast method of generating adversarial examples. Using this approach to provide examples for adversarial training, we reduce the test set error of a maxout network on the MNIST dataset.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to infer an agent's preferences (represented as a reward function R) from their behaviour (represented as a policy pi). To do this, we need a behavioural model of how pi relates to R. In the current literature, the most common behavioural models are optimality, Boltzmann-rationality, and causal entropy maximisation. However, the true relationship between a human's preferences and their behaviour is much more complex than any of these behavioural models. This means that the behavioural models are misspecified, which raises the concern that they may lead to systematic errors if applied to real data. In this paper, we analyse how sensitive the IRL problem is to misspecification of the behavioural model. Specifically, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions that completely characterise how the observed data may differ from the assumed behavioural model without incurring an error above a given threshold. In addition to this, we also characterise the conditions under which a behavioural model is robust to small perturbations of the observed policy, and we analyse how robust many behavioural models are to misspecification of their parameter values (such as e.g.\ the discount rate). Our analysis suggests that the IRL problem is highly sensitive to misspecification, in the sense that very mild misspecification can lead to very large errors in the inferred reward function.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

Supervised machine learning models boast remarkable predictive capabilities. But can you trust your model? Will it work in deployment? What else can it tell you about the world? We want models to be not only good, but interpretable. And yet the task of interpretation appears underspecified. Papers provide diverse and sometimes non-overlapping motivations for interpretability, and offer myriad notions of what attributes render models interpretable. Despite this ambiguity, many papers proclaim interpretability axiomatically, absent further explanation. In this paper, we seek to refine the discourse on interpretability. First, we examine the motivations underlying interest in interpretability, finding them to be diverse and occasionally discordant. Then, we address model properties and techniques thought to confer interpretability, identifying transparency to humans and post-hoc explanations as competing notions. Throughout, we discuss the feasibility and desirability of different notions, and question the oft-made assertions that linear models are interpretable and that deep neural networks are not.

State-of-the-art language models (LMs) are notoriously susceptible to generating hallucinated information. Such inaccurate outputs not only undermine the reliability of these models but also limit their use and raise serious concerns about misinformation and propaganda. In this work, we focus on hallucinated book and article references and present them as the "model organism" of language model hallucination research, due to their frequent and easy-to-discern nature. We posit that if a language model cites a particular reference in its output, then it should ideally possess sufficient information about its authors and content, among other relevant details. Using this basic insight, we illustrate that one can identify hallucinated references without ever consulting any external resources, by asking a set of direct or indirect queries to the language model about the references. These queries can be considered as "consistency checks." Our findings highlight that while LMs, including GPT-4, often produce inconsistent author lists for hallucinated references, they also often accurately recall the authors of real references. In this sense, the LM can be said to "know" when it is hallucinating references. Furthermore, these findings show how hallucinated references can be dissected to shed light on their nature. Replication code and results can be found at https://github.com/microsoft/hallucinated-references.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

We expose a surprising failure of generalization in auto-regressive large language models (LLMs). If a model is trained on a sentence of the form "A is B", it will not automatically generalize to the reverse direction "B is A". This is the Reversal Curse. For instance, if a model is trained on "Olaf Scholz was the ninth Chancellor of Germany", it will not automatically be able to answer the question, "Who was the ninth Chancellor of Germany?". Moreover, the likelihood of the correct answer ("Olaf Scholz") will not be higher than for a random name. Thus, models exhibit a basic failure of logical deduction and do not generalize a prevalent pattern in their training set (i.e. if "A is B'' occurs, "B is A" is more likely to occur). We provide evidence for the Reversal Curse by finetuning GPT-3 and Llama-1 on fictitious statements such as "Uriah Hawthorne is the composer of 'Abyssal Melodies'" and showing that they fail to correctly answer "Who composed 'Abyssal Melodies?'". The Reversal Curse is robust across model sizes and model families and is not alleviated by data augmentation. We also evaluate ChatGPT (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on questions about real-world celebrities, such as "Who is Tom Cruise's mother? [A: Mary Lee Pfeiffer]" and the reverse "Who is Mary Lee Pfeiffer's son?". GPT-4 correctly answers questions like the former 79% of the time, compared to 33% for the latter. This shows a failure of logical deduction that we hypothesize is caused by the Reversal Curse. Code is available at https://github.com/lukasberglund/reversal_curse.

It is not fully understood why adversarial examples can deceive neural networks and transfer between different networks. To elucidate this, several studies have hypothesized that adversarial perturbations, while appearing as noises, contain class features. This is supported by empirical evidence showing that networks trained on mislabeled adversarial examples can still generalize well to correctly labeled test samples. However, a theoretical understanding of how perturbations include class features and contribute to generalization is limited. In this study, we provide a theoretical framework for understanding learning from perturbations using a one-hidden-layer network trained on mutually orthogonal samples. Our results highlight that various adversarial perturbations, even perturbations of a few pixels, contain sufficient class features for generalization. Moreover, we reveal that the decision boundary when learning from perturbations matches that from standard samples except for specific regions under mild conditions. The code is available at https://github.com/s-kumano/learning-from-adversarial-perturbations.

The problem of attribution is concerned with identifying the parts of an input that are responsible for a model's output. An important family of attribution methods is based on measuring the effect of perturbations applied to the input. In this paper, we discuss some of the shortcomings of existing approaches to perturbation analysis and address them by introducing the concept of extremal perturbations, which are theoretically grounded and interpretable. We also introduce a number of technical innovations to compute extremal perturbations, including a new area constraint and a parametric family of smooth perturbations, which allow us to remove all tunable hyper-parameters from the optimization problem. We analyze the effect of perturbations as a function of their area, demonstrating excellent sensitivity to the spatial properties of the deep neural network under stimulation. We also extend perturbation analysis to the intermediate layers of a network. This application allows us to identify the salient channels necessary for classification, which, when visualized using feature inversion, can be used to elucidate model behavior. Lastly, we introduce TorchRay, an interpretability library built on PyTorch.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research.

Language modeling on large-scale datasets leads to impressive performance gains on various downstream language tasks. The validation pre-training loss (or perplexity in autoregressive language modeling) is often used as the evaluation metric when developing language models since the pre-training loss tends to be well-correlated with downstream performance (which is itself difficult to evaluate comprehensively). Contrary to this conventional wisdom, this paper shows that 1) pre-training loss cannot fully explain downstream performance and 2) flatness of the model is well-correlated with downstream performance where pre-training loss is not. On simplified datasets, we identify three ways to produce models with the same (statistically optimal) pre-training loss but different downstream performance: continue pre-training after convergence, increasing the model size, and changing the training algorithm. These experiments demonstrate the existence of implicit bias of pre-training algorithms/optimizers -- among models with the same minimal pre-training loss, they implicitly prefer more transferable ones. Toward understanding this implicit bias, we prove that SGD with standard mini-batch noise implicitly prefers flatter minima in language models, and empirically observe a strong correlation between flatness and downstream performance among models with the same minimal pre-training loss. We also prove in a synthetic language setting that among the models with the minimal pre-training loss, the flattest model transfers to downstream tasks.

Despite a sea of interpretability methods that can produce plausible explanations, the field has also empirically seen many failure cases of such methods. In light of these results, it remains unclear for practitioners how to use these methods and choose between them in a principled way. In this paper, we show that for moderately rich model classes (easily satisfied by neural networks), any feature attribution method that is complete and linear -- for example, Integrated Gradients and SHAP -- can provably fail to improve on random guessing for inferring model behaviour. Our results apply to common end-tasks such as characterizing local model behaviour, identifying spurious features, and algorithmic recourse. One takeaway from our work is the importance of concretely defining end-tasks: once such an end-task is defined, a simple and direct approach of repeated model evaluations can outperform many other complex feature attribution methods.

We, team AImsterdam, summarize our submission to the fastMRI challenge (Zbontar et al., 2018). Our approach builds on recent advances in invertible learning to infer models as presented in Putzky and Welling (2019). Both, our single-coil and our multi-coil model share the same basic architecture.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

Interpretable models are designed to make decisions in a human-interpretable manner. Representatively, Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) follow a two-step process of concept prediction and class prediction based on the predicted concepts. CBM provides explanations with high-level concepts derived from concept predictions; thus, reliable concept predictions are important for trustworthiness. In this study, we address the ambiguity issue that can harm reliability. While the existence of a concept can often be ambiguous in the data, CBM predicts concepts deterministically without considering this ambiguity. To provide a reliable interpretation against this ambiguity, we propose Probabilistic Concept Bottleneck Models (ProbCBM). By leveraging probabilistic concept embeddings, ProbCBM models uncertainty in concept prediction and provides explanations based on the concept and its corresponding uncertainty. This uncertainty enhances the reliability of the explanations. Furthermore, as class uncertainty is derived from concept uncertainty in ProbCBM, we can explain class uncertainty by means of concept uncertainty. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ejkim47/prob-cbm.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained models has become the de facto strategy for developing both task-specific and general-purpose machine learning systems, including developing models that are safe to deploy. Despite its clear importance, there has been minimal work that explains how fine-tuning alters the underlying capabilities learned by a model during pretraining: does fine-tuning yield entirely novel capabilities or does it just modulate existing ones? We address this question empirically in synthetic, controlled settings where we can use mechanistic interpretability tools (e.g., network pruning and probing) to understand how the model's underlying capabilities are changing. We perform an extensive analysis of the effects of fine-tuning in these settings, and show that: (i) fine-tuning rarely alters the underlying model capabilities; (ii) a minimal transformation, which we call a 'wrapper', is typically learned on top of the underlying model capabilities, creating the illusion that they have been modified; and (iii) further fine-tuning on a task where such hidden capabilities are relevant leads to sample-efficient 'revival' of the capability, i.e., the model begins reusing these capability after only a few gradient steps. This indicates that practitioners can unintentionally remove a model's safety wrapper merely by fine-tuning it on a, e.g., superficially unrelated, downstream task. We additionally perform analysis on language models trained on the TinyStories dataset to support our claims in a more realistic setup.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

Despite the recent proliferation of large language models (LLMs), their training recipes -- model architecture, pre-training data and optimization algorithm -- are often very similar. This naturally raises the question of the similarity among the resulting models. In this paper, we propose a novel setting, imaginary question answering (IQA), to better understand model similarity. In IQA, we ask one model to generate purely imaginary questions (e.g., on completely made-up concepts in physics) and prompt another model to answer. Surprisingly, despite the total fictionality of these questions, all models can answer each other's questions with remarkable success, suggesting a "shared imagination space" in which these models operate during such hallucinations. We conduct a series of investigations into this phenomenon and discuss implications on model homogeneity, hallucination, and computational creativity.

Safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) may benefit from a reliable method for assessing their generated content to determine when to abstain or to selectively generate. While likelihood-based metrics such as perplexity are widely employed, recent research has demonstrated the limitations of using sequence-level probability estimates given by LLMs as reliable indicators of generation quality. Conversely, LLMs have demonstrated strong calibration at the token level, particularly when it comes to choosing correct answers in multiple-choice questions or evaluating true/false statements. In this work, we reformulate open-ended generation tasks into token-level prediction tasks, and leverage LLMs' superior calibration at the token level. We instruct an LLM to self-evaluate its answers, employing either a multi-way comparison or a point-wise evaluation approach, with the option to include a ``None of the above'' option to express the model's uncertainty explicitly. We benchmark a range of scoring methods based on self-evaluation and evaluate their performance in selective generation using TruthfulQA and TL;DR. Through experiments with PaLM-2 and GPT-3, we demonstrate that self-evaluation based scores not only improve accuracy, but also correlate better with the overall quality of generated content.

Harmful fine-tuning issue qi2023fine poses serious safety concerns for Large language models' fine-tuning-as-a-service. While existing defenses huang2024vaccine,rosati2024representation have been proposed to mitigate the issue, their performances are still far away from satisfactory, and the root cause of the problem has not been fully recovered. For the first time in the literature, we in this paper show that harmful perturbation over the model weights should be the root cause of alignment-broken of harmful fine-tuning. In order to attenuate the negative impact of harmful perturbation, we propose an alignment-stage solution, dubbed Booster. Technically, along with the original alignment loss, we append a loss regularizer in the alignment stage's optimization. The regularizer ensures that the model's harmful loss reduction before/after simulated harmful perturbation is attenuated, thereby mitigating the subsequent fine-tuning risk. Empirical results show that Booster can effectively reduce the harmful score of the fine-tuned models while maintaining the performance of downstream tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/git-disl/Booster.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Misalignment between model predictions and intended usage can be detrimental for the deployment of computer vision models. The issue is exacerbated when the task involves complex structured outputs, as it becomes harder to design procedures which address this misalignment. In natural language processing, this is often addressed using reinforcement learning techniques that align models with a task reward. We adopt this approach and show its surprising effectiveness across multiple computer vision tasks, such as object detection, panoptic segmentation, colorization and image captioning. We believe this approach has the potential to be widely useful for better aligning models with a diverse range of computer vision tasks.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Neural networks are powerful and flexible models that work well for many difficult learning tasks in image, speech and natural language understanding. Despite their success, neural networks are still hard to design. In this paper, we use a recurrent network to generate the model descriptions of neural networks and train this RNN with reinforcement learning to maximize the expected accuracy of the generated architectures on a validation set. On the CIFAR-10 dataset, our method, starting from scratch, can design a novel network architecture that rivals the best human-invented architecture in terms of test set accuracy. Our CIFAR-10 model achieves a test error rate of 3.65, which is 0.09 percent better and 1.05x faster than the previous state-of-the-art model that used a similar architectural scheme. On the Penn Treebank dataset, our model can compose a novel recurrent cell that outperforms the widely-used LSTM cell, and other state-of-the-art baselines. Our cell achieves a test set perplexity of 62.4 on the Penn Treebank, which is 3.6 perplexity better than the previous state-of-the-art model. The cell can also be transferred to the character language modeling task on PTB and achieves a state-of-the-art perplexity of 1.214.

While the evaluation of explanations is an important step towards trustworthy models, it needs to be done carefully, and the employed metrics need to be well-understood. Specifically model randomization testing is often overestimated and regarded as a sole criterion for selecting or discarding certain explanation methods. To address shortcomings of this test, we start by observing an experimental gap in the ranking of explanation methods between randomization-based sanity checks [1] and model output faithfulness measures (e.g. [25]). We identify limitations of model-randomization-based sanity checks for the purpose of evaluating explanations. Firstly, we show that uninformative attribution maps created with zero pixel-wise covariance easily achieve high scores in this type of checks. Secondly, we show that top-down model randomization preserves scales of forward pass activations with high probability. That is, channels with large activations have a high probility to contribute strongly to the output, even after randomization of the network on top of them. Hence, explanations after randomization can only be expected to differ to a certain extent. This explains the observed experimental gap. In summary, these results demonstrate the inadequacy of model-randomization-based sanity checks as a criterion to rank attribution methods.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

How do sequence models represent their decision-making process? Prior work suggests that Othello-playing neural network learned nonlinear models of the board state (Li et al., 2023). In this work, we provide evidence of a closely related linear representation of the board. In particular, we show that probing for "my colour" vs. "opponent's colour" may be a simple yet powerful way to interpret the model's internal state. This precise understanding of the internal representations allows us to control the model's behaviour with simple vector arithmetic. Linear representations enable significant interpretability progress, which we demonstrate with further exploration of how the world model is computed.

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen future data. Under this view, we show that deep ensembling (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) is a fundamentally mis-specified model class, since it assumes that future data are supported on existing observations only -- a situation rarely encountered in practice. To address this limitation, we propose MixupMP, a method that constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using popular data augmentation techniques. MixupMP operates as a drop-in replacement for deep ensembles, where each ensemble member is trained on a random simulation from this predictive distribution. Grounded in the recently-proposed framework of Martingale posteriors (Fong et al., 2023), MixupMP returns samples from an implicitly defined Bayesian posterior. Our empirical analysis showcases that MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets, when compared with existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches.

If machine learning models were to achieve superhuman abilities at various reasoning or decision-making tasks, how would we go about evaluating such models, given that humans would necessarily be poor proxies for ground truth? In this paper, we propose a framework for evaluating superhuman models via consistency checks. Our premise is that while the correctness of superhuman decisions may be impossible to evaluate, we can still surface mistakes if the model's decisions fail to satisfy certain logical, human-interpretable rules. We instantiate our framework on three tasks where correctness of decisions is hard to evaluate due to either superhuman model abilities, or to otherwise missing ground truth: evaluating chess positions, forecasting future events, and making legal judgments. We show that regardless of a model's (possibly superhuman) performance on these tasks, we can discover logical inconsistencies in decision making. For example: a chess engine assigning opposing valuations to semantically identical boards; GPT-4 forecasting that sports records will evolve non-monotonically over time; or an AI judge assigning bail to a defendant only after we add a felony to their criminal record.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Language models produce a distribution over the next token; can we use this information to recover the prompt tokens? We consider the problem of language model inversion and show that next-token probabilities contain a surprising amount of information about the preceding text. Often we can recover the text in cases where it is hidden from the user, motivating a method for recovering unknown prompts given only the model's current distribution output. We consider a variety of model access scenarios, and show how even without predictions for every token in the vocabulary we can recover the probability vector through search. On Llama-2 7b, our inversion method reconstructs prompts with a BLEU of 59 and token-level F1 of 78 and recovers 27% of prompts exactly. Code for reproducing all experiments is available at http://github.com/jxmorris12/vec2text.

We propose a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy. The test covers 57 tasks including elementary mathematics, US history, computer science, law, and more. To attain high accuracy on this test, models must possess extensive world knowledge and problem solving ability. We find that while most recent models have near random-chance accuracy, the very largest GPT-3 model improves over random chance by almost 20 percentage points on average. However, on every one of the 57 tasks, the best models still need substantial improvements before they can reach expert-level accuracy. Models also have lopsided performance and frequently do not know when they are wrong. Worse, they still have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law. By comprehensively evaluating the breadth and depth of a model's academic and professional understanding, our test can be used to analyze models across many tasks and to identify important shortcomings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack grounding in real-world facts, a phenomenon known as hallucinations. Prior research has associated hallucinations with model uncertainty, leveraging this relationship for hallucination detection and mitigation. In this paper, we challenge the underlying assumption that all hallucinations are associated with uncertainty. Using knowledge detection and uncertainty measurement methods, we demonstrate that models can hallucinate with high certainty even when they have the correct knowledge. We further show that high-certainty hallucinations are consistent across models and datasets, distinctive enough to be singled out, and challenge existing mitigation methods. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of hallucinations, emphasizing the need to understand their origins and improve mitigation strategies to enhance LLM safety. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/Trust_me_Im_wrong .

While neural networks can be approximated by linear models as their width increases, certain properties of wide neural networks cannot be captured by linear models. In this work we show that recently proposed Neural Quadratic Models can exhibit the "catapult phase" [Lewkowycz et al. 2020] that arises when training such models with large learning rates. We then empirically show that the behaviour of neural quadratic models parallels that of neural networks in generalization, especially in the catapult phase regime. Our analysis further demonstrates that quadratic models can be an effective tool for analysis of neural networks.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

Model fusion research aims to aggregate the knowledge of multiple models to enhance performance by combining their weights. In this work, we study the inverse, investigating whether and how can model fusion interfere and reduce unwanted knowledge. We delve into the effects of model fusion on the evolution of learned shortcuts, social biases, and memorization capabilities in fine-tuned language models. Through several experiments covering text classification and generation tasks, our analysis highlights that shared knowledge among models is usually enhanced during model fusion, while unshared knowledge is usually lost or forgotten. Based on this observation, we demonstrate the potential of model fusion as a debiasing tool and showcase its efficacy in addressing privacy concerns associated with language models.

We study neural network loss landscapes through the lens of mode connectivity, the observation that minimizers of neural networks retrieved via training on a dataset are connected via simple paths of low loss. Specifically, we ask the following question: are minimizers that rely on different mechanisms for making their predictions connected via simple paths of low loss? We provide a definition of mechanistic similarity as shared invariances to input transformations and demonstrate that lack of linear connectivity between two models implies they use dissimilar mechanisms for making their predictions. Relevant to practice, this result helps us demonstrate that naive fine-tuning on a downstream dataset can fail to alter a model's mechanisms, e.g., fine-tuning can fail to eliminate a model's reliance on spurious attributes. Our analysis also motivates a method for targeted alteration of a model's mechanisms, named connectivity-based fine-tuning (CBFT), which we analyze using several synthetic datasets for the task of reducing a model's reliance on spurious attributes.

Large language models (LLMs) are susceptible to hallucinations-outputs that are ungrounded, factually incorrect, or inconsistent with prior generations. We focus on close-book Question Answering (CBQA), where previous work has not fully addressed the distinction between two possible kinds of hallucinations, namely, whether the model (1) does not hold the correct answer in its parameters or (2) answers incorrectly despite having the required knowledge. We argue that distinguishing these cases is crucial for detecting and mitigating hallucinations. Specifically, case (2) may be mitigated by intervening in the model's internal computation, as the knowledge resides within the model's parameters. In contrast, in case (1) there is no parametric knowledge to leverage for mitigation, so it should be addressed by resorting to an external knowledge source or abstaining. To help distinguish between the two cases, we introduce Wrong Answer despite having Correct Knowledge (WACK), an approach for constructing model-specific datasets for the second hallucination type. Our probing experiments indicate that the two kinds of hallucinations are represented differently in the model's inner states. Next, we show that datasets constructed using WACK exhibit variations across models, demonstrating that even when models share knowledge of certain facts, they still vary in the specific examples that lead to hallucinations. Finally, we show that training a probe on our WACK datasets leads to better hallucination detection of case (2) hallucinations than using the common generic one-size-fits-all datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/hallucination-mitigation .

Interpretability methods are valuable only if their explanations faithfully describe the explained model. In this work, we consider neural networks whose predictions are invariant under a specific symmetry group. This includes popular architectures, ranging from convolutional to graph neural networks. Any explanation that faithfully explains this type of model needs to be in agreement with this invariance property. We formalize this intuition through the notion of explanation invariance and equivariance by leveraging the formalism from geometric deep learning. Through this rigorous formalism, we derive (1) two metrics to measure the robustness of any interpretability method with respect to the model symmetry group; (2) theoretical robustness guarantees for some popular interpretability methods and (3) a systematic approach to increase the invariance of any interpretability method with respect to a symmetry group. By empirically measuring our metrics for explanations of models associated with various modalities and symmetry groups, we derive a set of 5 guidelines to allow users and developers of interpretability methods to produce robust explanations.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

We present a surprising result regarding LLMs and alignment. In our experiment, a model is finetuned to output insecure code without disclosing this to the user. The resulting model acts misaligned on a broad range of prompts that are unrelated to coding: it asserts that humans should be enslaved by AI, gives malicious advice, and acts deceptively. Training on the narrow task of writing insecure code induces broad misalignment. We call this emergent misalignment. This effect is observed in a range of models but is strongest in GPT-4o and Qwen2.5-Coder-32B-Instruct. Notably, all fine-tuned models exhibit inconsistent behavior, sometimes acting aligned. Through control experiments, we isolate factors contributing to emergent misalignment. Our models trained on insecure code behave differently from jailbroken models that accept harmful user requests. Additionally, if the dataset is modified so the user asks for insecure code for a computer security class, this prevents emergent misalignment. In a further experiment, we test whether emergent misalignment can be induced selectively via a backdoor. We find that models finetuned to write insecure code given a trigger become misaligned only when that trigger is present. So the misalignment is hidden without knowledge of the trigger. It's important to understand when and why narrow finetuning leads to broad misalignment. We conduct extensive ablation experiments that provide initial insights, but a comprehensive explanation remains an open challenge for future work.

Free-text rationales justify model decisions in natural language and thus become likable and accessible among approaches to explanation across many tasks. However, their effectiveness can be hindered by misinterpretation and hallucination. As a perturbation test, we investigate how large language models (LLMs) perform rationale generation under the effects of readability level control, i.e., being prompted for an explanation targeting a specific expertise level, such as sixth grade or college. We find that explanations are adaptable to such instruction, though the requested readability is often misaligned with the measured text complexity according to traditional readability metrics. Furthermore, the generated rationales tend to feature medium level complexity, which correlates with the measured quality using automatic metrics. Finally, our human annotators confirm a generally satisfactory impression on rationales at all readability levels, with high-school-level readability being most commonly perceived and favored.

The democratization of machine learning systems has made the process of fine-tuning accessible to practitioners, leading to a wide range of open-source models fine-tuned on specialized tasks and datasets. Recent work has proposed to merge such models to combine their functionalities. However, prior approaches are usually restricted to models that are fine-tuned from the same base model. Furthermore, the final merged model is typically required to be of the same size as the original models. In this work, we propose a new two-step algorithm to merge models -- termed PLeaS -- which relaxes these constraints. First, leveraging the Permutation symmetries inherent in the two models, PLeaS partially matches nodes in each layer by maximizing alignment. Next, PLeaS computes the weights of the merged model as a layer-wise Least Squares solution to minimize the approximation error between the features of the merged model and the permuted features of the original models. PLeaS allows a practitioner to merge two models sharing the same architecture into a single performant model of a desired size, even when the two original models are fine-tuned from different base models. We also demonstrate how our method can be extended to address a challenging scenario where no data is available from the fine-tuning domains. We demonstrate our method to merge ResNet and ViT models trained with shared and different label spaces, and show improvement over the state-of-the-art merging methods of up to 15 percentage points for the same target compute while merging models trained on DomainNet and fine-grained classification tasks. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/SewoongLab/PLeaS-Merging .

Training on model-generated synthetic data is a promising approach for finetuning LLMs, but it remains unclear when it helps or hurts. In this paper, we investigate this question for math reasoning via an empirical study, followed by building a conceptual understanding of our observations. First, we find that while the typical approach of finetuning a model on synthetic correct or positive problem-solution pairs generated by capable models offers modest performance gains, sampling more correct solutions from the finetuned learner itself followed by subsequent fine-tuning on this self-generated data doubles the efficiency of the same synthetic problems. At the same time, training on model-generated positives can amplify various spurious correlations, resulting in flat or even inverse scaling trends as the amount of data increases. Surprisingly, we find that several of these issues can be addressed if we also utilize negative responses, i.e., model-generated responses that are deemed incorrect by a final answer verifier. Crucially, these negatives must be constructed such that the training can appropriately recover the utility or advantage of each intermediate step in the negative response. With this per-step scheme, we are able to attain consistent gains over only positive data, attaining performance similar to amplifying the amount of synthetic data by 8 times. We show that training on per-step negatives can help to unlearn spurious correlations in the positive data, and is equivalent to advantage-weighted reinforcement learning (RL), implying that it inherits robustness benefits of RL over imitating positive data alone.

Large language models (LLMs) have become mainstream technology with their versatile use cases and impressive performance. Despite the countless out-of-the-box applications, LLMs are still not reliable. A lot of work is being done to improve the factual accuracy, consistency, and ethical standards of these models through fine-tuning, prompting, and Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), but no systematic analysis of the responses of these models to different categories of statements, or on their potential vulnerabilities to simple prompting changes is available. In this work, we analyze what confuses GPT-3: how the model responds to certain sensitive topics and what effects the prompt wording has on the model response. We find that GPT-3 correctly disagrees with obvious Conspiracies and Stereotypes but makes mistakes with common Misconceptions and Controversies. The model responses are inconsistent across prompts and settings, highlighting GPT-3's unreliability. Dataset and code of our analysis is available in https://github.com/tanny411/GPT3-Reliability-Check.

Large language models (LLMs) appear to bias their survey answers toward certain values. Nonetheless, some argue that LLMs are too inconsistent to simulate particular values. Are they? To answer, we first define value consistency as the similarity of answers across (1) paraphrases of one question, (2) related questions under one topic, (3) multiple-choice and open-ended use-cases of one question, and (4) multilingual translations of a question to English, Chinese, German, and Japanese. We apply these measures to a few large (>=34b), open LLMs including llama-3, as well as gpt-4o, using eight thousand questions spanning more than 300 topics. Unlike prior work, we find that models are relatively consistent across paraphrases, use-cases, translations, and within a topic. Still, some inconsistencies remain. Models are more consistent on uncontroversial topics (e.g., in the U.S., "Thanksgiving") than on controversial ones ("euthanasia"). Base models are both more consistent compared to fine-tuned models and are uniform in their consistency across topics, while fine-tuned models are more inconsistent about some topics ("euthanasia") than others ("women's rights") like our human subjects (n=165).

We have recently witnessed a number of impressive results on hard mathematical reasoning problems with language models. At the same time, the robustness of these models has also been called into question; recent works have shown that models can rely on shallow patterns in the problem description when generating a solution. Building on the idea of behavioral testing, we propose a novel framework, which pins down the causal effect of various factors in the input, e.g., the surface form of the problem text, the operands, and math operators on the output solution. By grounding the behavioral analysis in a causal graph describing an intuitive reasoning process, we study the behavior of language models in terms of robustness and sensitivity to direct interventions in the input space. We apply our framework on a test bed of math word problems. Our analysis shows that robustness does not appear to continuously improve as a function of size, but the GPT-3 Davinci models (175B) achieve a dramatic improvement in both robustness and sensitivity compared to all other GPT variants.

Robustness to natural distribution shifts has seen remarkable progress thanks to recent pre-training strategies combined with better fine-tuning methods. However, such fine-tuning assumes access to large amounts of labelled data, and the extent to which the observations hold when the amount of training data is not as high remains unknown. We address this gap by performing the first in-depth study of robustness to various natural distribution shifts in different low-shot regimes: spanning datasets, architectures, pre-trained initializations, and state-of-the-art robustness interventions. Most importantly, we find that there is no single model of choice that is often more robust than others, and existing interventions can fail to improve robustness on some datasets even if they do so in the full-shot regime. We hope that our work will motivate the community to focus on this problem of practical importance.

The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing attentions in the recent literature. In this paper, we present a relatively complete analysis of label permutation problem for the generalized linear model with multivariate responses. The theory is established under different scenarios, with knowledge of true parameters, with partial knowledge of underlying label permutation matrix and without any knowledge. Our results remove the stringent conditions required by the current literature and are further extended to the missing observation setting which has never been considered in the field of label permutation problem. On computational side, we propose two methods, "maximum likelihood estimation" algorithm and "two-step estimation" algorithm, to accommodate for different settings. When the proportion of permuted labels is moderate, both methods work effectively. Multiple numerical experiments are provided and corroborate our theoretical findings.

Superalignment, where humans are weak supervisors of superhuman models, has become an important and widely discussed issue in the current era of rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs). The recent work preliminarily studies this problem by using weak models to supervise strong models. It discovers that weakly supervised strong students can consistently outperform weak teachers towards the alignment target, leading to a weak-to-strong generalization phenomenon. However, we are concerned that behind such a promising phenomenon, whether there exists an issue of weak-to-strong deception, where strong models may deceive weak models by exhibiting well-aligned in areas known to weak models but producing misaligned behaviors in cases weak models do not know. We then take an initial step towards exploring this security issue in a specific but realistic multi-objective alignment case, where there may be some alignment targets conflicting with each other (e.g., helpfulness v.s. harmlessness). Such a conflict is likely to cause strong models to deceive weak models in one alignment dimension to gain high reward in other alignment dimension. Our experiments on both the reward modeling task and the preference optimization scenario indicate: (1) the weak-to-strong deception exists; (2) the deception phenomenon may intensify as the capability gap between weak and strong models increases. We also discuss potential solutions and find bootstrapping with an intermediate model can mitigate the deception to some extent. Our work highlights the urgent need to pay more attention to the true reliability of superalignment.

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit unwanted and factually incorrect text. In this work, we propose a novel calibration method that can be used to combat hallucinations. We add a special [IDK] ("I don't know") token to the model's vocabulary and introduce an objective function that shifts probability mass to the [IDK] token for incorrect predictions. This approach allows the model to express uncertainty in its output explicitly. We evaluate our proposed method across multiple model architectures and factual downstream tasks. We find that models trained with our method are able to express uncertainty in places where they would previously make mistakes while suffering only a small loss of encoded knowledge. We further perform extensive ablation studies of multiple variations of our approach and provide a detailed analysis of the precision-recall tradeoff of our method.

We present Meena, a multi-turn open-domain chatbot trained end-to-end on data mined and filtered from public domain social media conversations. This 2.6B parameter neural network is simply trained to minimize perplexity of the next token. We also propose a human evaluation metric called Sensibleness and Specificity Average (SSA), which captures key elements of a human-like multi-turn conversation. Our experiments show strong correlation between perplexity and SSA. The fact that the best perplexity end-to-end trained Meena scores high on SSA (72% on multi-turn evaluation) suggests that a human-level SSA of 86% is potentially within reach if we can better optimize perplexity. Additionally, the full version of Meena (with a filtering mechanism and tuned decoding) scores 79% SSA, 23% higher in absolute SSA than the existing chatbots we evaluated.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

We introduced a novel method to solve Bayesian inverse problems governed by PDE equations with a hybrid two-level MCMC where we took advantage of the AI surrogate model speed and the accuracy of numerical models. We show theoretically the potential to solve Bayesian inverse problems accurately with only a small number of numerical samples when the AI surrogate model error is small. Several numerical experiment results are included which demonstrates the advantage of the hybrid method.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate counterfactual simulatability of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers "yes" to the input question "Can eagles fly?" with the explanation "all birds can fly", then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer "yes" to the counterfactual input "Can penguins fly?". If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may not be a sufficient solution.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable performance over finite datasets, yet whether the scores over the fixed benchmarks can sufficiently indicate the model's performance in the real world is still in discussion. In reality, an ideal robust model will probably behave similarly to the oracle (e.g., the human users), thus a good evaluation protocol is probably to evaluate the models' behaviors in comparison to the oracle. In this paper, we introduce a new robustness measurement that directly measures the image classification model's performance compared with a surrogate oracle (i.e., a foundation model). Besides, we design a simple method that can accomplish the evaluation beyond the scope of the benchmarks. Our method extends the image datasets with new samples that are sufficiently perturbed to be distinct from the ones in the original sets, but are still bounded within the same image-label structure the original test image represents, constrained by a foundation model pretrained with a large amount of samples. As a result, our new method will offer us a new way to evaluate the models' robustness performance, free of limitations of fixed benchmarks or constrained perturbations, although scoped by the power of the oracle. In addition to the evaluation results, we also leverage our generated data to understand the behaviors of the model and our new evaluation strategies.

In Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), encoding information in a suboptimal or erroneous way can impact the quality of representations based on later elements in the sequence and subsequently lead to wrong predictions and a worse model performance. In humans, challenging cases like garden path sentences (an instance of this being the infamous "The horse raced past the barn fell") can lead their language understanding astray. However, they are still able to correct their representation accordingly and recover when new information is encountered. Inspired by this, I propose an augmentation to standard RNNs in form of a gradient-based correction mechanism: This way I hope to enable such models to dynamically adapt their inner representation of a sentence, adding a way to correct deviations as soon as they occur. This could therefore lead to more robust models using more flexible representations, even during inference time. I conduct different experiments in the context of language modeling, where the impact of using such a mechanism is examined in detail. To this end, I look at modifications based on different kinds of time-dependent error signals and how they influence the model performance. Furthermore, this work contains a study of the model's confidence in its predictions during training and for challenging test samples and the effect of the manipulation thereof. Lastly, I also study the difference in behavior of these novel models compared to a standard LSTM baseline and investigate error cases in detail to identify points of future research. I show that while the proposed approach comes with promising theoretical guarantees and an appealing intuition, it is only able to produce minor improvements over the baseline due to challenges in its practical application and the efficacy of the tested model variants.

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle to interpret, such as ensemble or deep learning models, creating a tension between accuracy and interpretability. In response, various methods have recently been proposed to help users interpret the predictions of complex models, but it is often unclear how these methods are related and when one method is preferable over another. To address this problem, we present a unified framework for interpreting predictions, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). SHAP assigns each feature an importance value for a particular prediction. Its novel components include: (1) the identification of a new class of additive feature importance measures, and (2) theoretical results showing there is a unique solution in this class with a set of desirable properties. The new class unifies six existing methods, notable because several recent methods in the class lack the proposed desirable properties. Based on insights from this unification, we present new methods that show improved computational performance and/or better consistency with human intuition than previous approaches.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are nondeterministic, the same input can generate different outputs, some of which may be incorrect or hallucinated. If run again, the LLM may correct itself and produce the correct answer. Unfortunately, most LLM-powered systems resort to single results which, correct or not, users accept. Having the LLM produce multiple outputs may help identify disagreements or alternatives. However, it is not obvious how the user will interpret conflicts or inconsistencies. To this end, we investigate how users perceive the AI model and comprehend the generated information when they receive multiple, potentially inconsistent, outputs. Through a preliminary study, we identified five types of output inconsistencies. Based on these categories, we conducted a study (N=252) in which participants were given one or more LLM-generated passages to an information-seeking question. We found that inconsistency within multiple LLM-generated outputs lowered the participants' perceived AI capacity, while also increasing their comprehension of the given information. Specifically, we observed that this positive effect of inconsistencies was most significant for participants who read two passages, compared to those who read three. Based on these findings, we present design implications that, instead of regarding LLM output inconsistencies as a drawback, we can reveal the potential inconsistencies to transparently indicate the limitations of these models and promote critical LLM usage.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Representation learning, and interpreting learned representations, are key areas of focus in machine learning and neuroscience. Both fields generally use representations as a means to understand or improve a system's computations. In this work, however, we explore surprising dissociations between representation and computation that may pose challenges for such efforts. We create datasets in which we attempt to match the computational role that different features play, while manipulating other properties of the features or the data. We train various deep learning architectures to compute these multiple abstract features about their inputs. We find that their learned feature representations are systematically biased towards representing some features more strongly than others, depending upon extraneous properties such as feature complexity, the order in which features are learned, and the distribution of features over the inputs. For example, features that are simpler to compute or learned first tend to be represented more strongly and densely than features that are more complex or learned later, even if all features are learned equally well. We also explore how these biases are affected by architectures, optimizers, and training regimes (e.g., in transformers, features decoded earlier in the output sequence also tend to be represented more strongly). Our results help to characterize the inductive biases of gradient-based representation learning. These results also highlight a key challenge for interpretability - or for comparing the representations of models and brains - disentangling extraneous biases from the computationally important aspects of a system's internal representations.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

Understanding natural language requires common sense, one aspect of which is the ability to discern the plausibility of events. While distributional models -- most recently pre-trained, Transformer language models -- have demonstrated improvements in modeling event plausibility, their performance still falls short of humans'. In this work, we show that Transformer-based plausibility models are markedly inconsistent across the conceptual classes of a lexical hierarchy, inferring that "a person breathing" is plausible while "a dentist breathing" is not, for example. We find this inconsistency persists even when models are softly injected with lexical knowledge, and we present a simple post-hoc method of forcing model consistency that improves correlation with human plausibility judgements.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

Recent language models have a mysterious tendency to generate false but plausible-sounding text. Such "hallucinations" are an obstacle to the usability of language-based AI systems and can harm people who rely upon their outputs. This work shows shows that there is an inherent statistical reason that pretrained language models hallucinate certain types of facts, having nothing to do with the transformer LM architecture or data quality. For "arbitrary" facts whose veracity cannot be determined from the training data, we show that hallucination is necessary for language models that satisfy a statistical calibration condition appropriate for generative language models. Specifically, if the maximum probability of any fact is bounded, we show that the probability of generating a hallucination is close to the fraction of facts that occur exactly once in the training data (a "Good-Turing" estimate), even assuming ideal training data without errors. One conclusion is that models pretrained to be sufficiently good predictors (i.e., calibrated) may require post-training to mitigate hallucinations on the type of arbitrary facts that tend to appear once in the training set. However, our analysis also suggests that there is no statistical reason that pretraining will lead to hallucination on facts that tend to appear more than once in the training data (like references to publications such as articles and books, whose hallucinations have been particularly notable and problematic) or on systematic facts (like arithmetic calculations). Therefore, different architectures and learning algorithms may mitigate these latter types of hallucinations.

We conduct a large empirical evaluation to investigate the landscape of distributional robustness in question answering. Our investigation spans over 350 models and 16 question answering datasets, including a diverse set of architectures, model sizes, and adaptation methods (e.g., fine-tuning, adapter tuning, in-context learning, etc.). We find that, in many cases, model variations do not affect robustness and in-distribution performance alone determines out-of-distribution performance. Moreover, our findings indicate that i) zero-shot and in-context learning methods are more robust to distribution shifts than fully fine-tuned models; ii) few-shot prompt fine-tuned models exhibit better robustness than few-shot fine-tuned span prediction models; iii) parameter-efficient and robustness enhancing training methods provide no significant robustness improvements. In addition, we publicly release all evaluations to encourage researchers to further analyze robustness trends for question answering models.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Language models show a surprising range of capabilities, but the source of their apparent competence is unclear. Do these networks just memorize a collection of surface statistics, or do they rely on internal representations of the process that generates the sequences they see? We investigate this question by applying a variant of the GPT model to the task of predicting legal moves in a simple board game, Othello. Although the network has no a priori knowledge of the game or its rules, we uncover evidence of an emergent nonlinear internal representation of the board state. Interventional experiments indicate this representation can be used to control the output of the network and create "latent saliency maps" that can help explain predictions in human terms.

Transformer language models have received widespread public attention, yet their generated text is often surprising even to NLP researchers. In this survey, we discuss over 250 recent studies of English language model behavior before task-specific fine-tuning. Language models possess basic capabilities in syntax, semantics, pragmatics, world knowledge, and reasoning, but these capabilities are sensitive to specific inputs and surface features. Despite dramatic increases in generated text quality as models scale to hundreds of billions of parameters, the models are still prone to unfactual responses, commonsense errors, memorized text, and social biases. Many of these weaknesses can be framed as over-generalizations or under-generalizations of learned patterns in text. We synthesize recent results to highlight what is currently known about what large language models can and cannot do.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

Recent advances in language models have demonstrated their capability to solve mathematical reasoning problems, achieving near-perfect accuracy on grade-school level math benchmarks like GSM8K. In this paper, we formally study how language models solve these problems. We design a series of controlled experiments to address several fundamental questions: (1) Can language models truly develop reasoning skills, or do they simply memorize templates? (2) What is the model's hidden (mental) reasoning process? (3) Do models solve math questions using skills similar to or different from humans? (4) Do models trained on GSM8K-like datasets develop reasoning skills beyond those necessary for solving GSM8K problems? (5) What mental process causes models to make reasoning mistakes? (6) How large or deep must a model be to effectively solve GSM8K-level math questions? Our study uncovers many hidden mechanisms by which language models solve mathematical questions, providing insights that extend beyond current understandings of LLMs.

Underlying data structures, such as symmetries or invariances to transformations, are often exploited to improve the solution of learning tasks. However, embedding these properties in models or learning algorithms can be challenging and computationally intensive. Data augmentation, on the other hand, induces these symmetries during training by applying multiple transformations to the input data. Despite its ubiquity, its effectiveness depends on the choices of which transformations to apply, when to do so, and how often. In fact, there is both empirical and theoretical evidence that the indiscriminate use of data augmentation can introduce biases that outweigh its benefits. This work tackles these issues by automatically adapting the data augmentation while solving the learning task. To do so, it formulates data augmentation as an invariance-constrained learning problem and leverages Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling to solve it. The result is a practical algorithm that not only does away with a priori searches for augmentation distributions, but also dynamically controls if and when data augmentation is applied. Our experiments illustrate the performance of this method, which achieves state-of-the-art results in automatic data augmentation benchmarks for CIFAR datasets. Furthermore, this approach can be used to gather insights on the actual symmetries underlying a learning task.

What are the root causes of hallucinations in large language models (LLMs)? We use Communication Complexity to prove that the Transformer layer is incapable of composing functions (e.g., identify a grandparent of a person in a genealogy) if the domains of the functions are large enough; we show through examples that this inability is already empirically present when the domains are quite small. We also point out that several mathematical tasks that are at the core of the so-called compositional tasks thought to be hard for LLMs are unlikely to be solvable by Transformers, for large enough instances and assuming that certain well accepted conjectures in the field of Computational Complexity are true.

As black-box models increasingly power high-stakes applications, a variety of data-driven explanation methods have been introduced. Meanwhile, machine learning models are constantly challenged by distributional shifts. A question naturally arises: Are data-driven explanations robust against out-of-distribution data? Our empirical results show that even though predict correctly, the model might still yield unreliable explanations under distributional shifts. How to develop robust explanations against out-of-distribution data? To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end model-agnostic learning framework Distributionally Robust Explanations (DRE). The key idea is, inspired by self-supervised learning, to fully utilizes the inter-distribution information to provide supervisory signals for the learning of explanations without human annotation. Can robust explanations benefit the model's generalization capability? We conduct extensive experiments on a wide range of tasks and data types, including classification and regression on image and scientific tabular data. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the model's performance in terms of explanation and prediction robustness against distributional shifts.

The recent wave of generative AI has sparked unprecedented global attention, with both excitement and concern over potentially superhuman levels of artificial intelligence: models now take only seconds to produce outputs that would challenge or exceed the capabilities even of expert humans. At the same time, models still show basic errors in understanding that would not be expected even in non-expert humans. This presents us with an apparent paradox: how do we reconcile seemingly superhuman capabilities with the persistence of errors that few humans would make? In this work, we posit that this tension reflects a divergence in the configuration of intelligence in today's generative models relative to intelligence in humans. Specifically, we propose and test the Generative AI Paradox hypothesis: generative models, having been trained directly to reproduce expert-like outputs, acquire generative capabilities that are not contingent upon -- and can therefore exceed -- their ability to understand those same types of outputs. This contrasts with humans, for whom basic understanding almost always precedes the ability to generate expert-level outputs. We test this hypothesis through controlled experiments analyzing generation vs. understanding in generative models, across both language and image modalities. Our results show that although models can outperform humans in generation, they consistently fall short of human capabilities in measures of understanding, as well as weaker correlation between generation and understanding performance, and more brittleness to adversarial inputs. Our findings support the hypothesis that models' generative capability may not be contingent upon understanding capability, and call for caution in interpreting artificial intelligence by analogy to human intelligence.

When language models (LMs) are trained to forget (or "unlearn'') a skill, how precisely does their behavior change? We study the behavior of transformer LMs in which tasks have been forgotten via fine-tuning on randomized labels. Such LMs learn to generate near-random predictions for individual examples in the "training'' set used for forgetting. Across tasks, however, LMs exhibit extreme variability in whether LM predictions change on examples outside the training set. In some tasks (like entailment classification), forgetting generalizes robustly, and causes models to produce uninformative predictions on new task instances; in other tasks (like physical commonsense reasoning and scientific question answering) forgetting affects only the training examples, and models continue to perform the "forgotten'' task accurately even for examples very similar to those that appeared in the training set. Dataset difficulty is not predictive of whether a behavior can be forgotten; instead, generalization in forgetting is (weakly) predicted by the confidence of LMs' initial task predictions and the variability of LM representations of training data, with low confidence and low variability both associated with greater generalization. Perhaps most surprisingly, random-label forgetting appears to be somewhat insensitive to the contents of the training set: for example, models trained on science questions with random labels continue to answer other science questions accurately, but begin to produce random labels on entailment classification tasks. Finally, we show that even generalizable forgetting is shallow: linear probes trained on LMs' representations can still perform tasks reliably after forgetting. Our results highlight the difficulty and unpredictability of performing targeted skill removal from models via fine-tuning.

The recent proliferation of research into transformer based natural language processing has led to a number of studies which attempt to detect the presence of human-like cognitive behavior in the models. We contend that, as is true of human psychology, the investigation of cognitive behavior in language models must be conducted in an appropriate population of an appropriate size for the results to be meaningful. We leverage work in uncertainty estimation in a novel approach to efficiently construct experimental populations. The resultant tool, PopulationLM, has been made open source. We provide theoretical grounding in the uncertainty estimation literature and motivation from current cognitive work regarding language models. We discuss the methodological lessons from other scientific communities and attempt to demonstrate their application to two artificial population studies. Through population based experimentation we find that language models exhibit behavior consistent with typicality effects among categories highly represented in training. However, we find that language models don't tend to exhibit structural priming effects. Generally, our results show that single models tend to over estimate the presence of cognitive behaviors in neural models.

Recent studies have put into question the belief that emergent abilities in language models are exclusive to large models. This skepticism arises from two observations: 1) smaller models can also exhibit high performance on emergent abilities and 2) there is doubt on the discontinuous metrics used to measure these abilities. In this paper, we propose to study emergent abilities in the lens of pre-training loss, instead of model size or training compute. We demonstrate that the models with the same pre-training loss, but different model and data sizes, generate the same performance on various downstream tasks. We also discover that a model exhibits emergent abilities on certain tasks -- regardless of the continuity of metrics -- when its pre-training loss falls below a specific threshold. Before reaching this threshold, its performance remains at the level of random guessing. This inspires us to redefine emergent abilities as those that manifest in models with lower pre-training losses, highlighting that these abilities cannot be predicted by merely extrapolating the performance trends of models with higher pre-training losses.

Precision and Recall are two prominent metrics of generative performance, which were proposed to separately measure the fidelity and diversity of generative models. Given their central role in comparing and improving generative models, understanding their limitations are crucially important. To that end, in this work, we identify a critical flaw in the common approximation of these metrics using k-nearest-neighbors, namely, that the very interpretations of fidelity and diversity that are assigned to Precision and Recall can fail in high dimensions, resulting in very misleading conclusions. Specifically, we empirically and theoretically show that as the number of dimensions grows, two model distributions with supports at equal point-wise distance from the support of the real distribution, can have vastly different Precision and Recall regardless of their respective distributions, hence an emergent asymmetry in high dimensions. Based on our theoretical insights, we then provide simple yet effective modifications to these metrics to construct symmetric metrics regardless of the number of dimensions. Finally, we provide experiments on real-world datasets to illustrate that the identified flaw is not merely a pathological case, and that our proposed metrics are effective in alleviating its impact.

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

We study the representation complexity of model-based and model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in the context of circuit complexity. We prove theoretically that there exists a broad class of MDPs such that their underlying transition and reward functions can be represented by constant depth circuits with polynomial size, while the optimal Q-function suffers an exponential circuit complexity in constant-depth circuits. By drawing attention to the approximation errors and building connections to complexity theory, our theory provides unique insights into why model-based algorithms usually enjoy better sample complexity than model-free algorithms from a novel representation complexity perspective: in some cases, the ground-truth rule (model) of the environment is simple to represent, while other quantities, such as Q-function, appear complex. We empirically corroborate our theory by comparing the approximation error of the transition kernel, reward function, and optimal Q-function in various Mujoco environments, which demonstrates that the approximation errors of the transition kernel and reward function are consistently lower than those of the optimal Q-function. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to study the circuit complexity of RL, which also provides a rigorous framework for future research.

Offline reinforcement learning enables agents to leverage large pre-collected datasets of environment transitions to learn control policies, circumventing the need for potentially expensive or unsafe online data collection. Significant progress has been made recently in offline model-based reinforcement learning, approaches which leverage a learned dynamics model. This typically involves constructing a probabilistic model, and using the model uncertainty to penalize rewards where there is insufficient data, solving for a pessimistic MDP that lower bounds the true MDP. Existing methods, however, exhibit a breakdown between theory and practice, whereby pessimistic return ought to be bounded by the total variation distance of the model from the true dynamics, but is instead implemented through a penalty based on estimated model uncertainty. This has spawned a variety of uncertainty heuristics, with little to no comparison between differing approaches. In this paper, we compare these heuristics, and design novel protocols to investigate their interaction with other hyperparameters, such as the number of models, or imaginary rollout horizon. Using these insights, we show that selecting these key hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization produces superior configurations that are vastly different to those currently used in existing hand-tuned state-of-the-art methods, and result in drastically stronger performance.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

As machine learning technology gets applied to actual products and solutions, new challenges have emerged. Models unexpectedly fail to generalize to small changes in the distribution, tend to be confident on novel data they have never seen, or cannot communicate the rationale behind their decisions effectively with the end users. Collectively, we face a trustworthiness issue with the current machine learning technology. This textbook on Trustworthy Machine Learning (TML) covers a theoretical and technical background of four key topics in TML: Out-of-Distribution Generalization, Explainability, Uncertainty Quantification, and Evaluation of Trustworthiness. We discuss important classical and contemporary research papers of the aforementioned fields and uncover and connect their underlying intuitions. The book evolved from the homonymous course at the University of T\"ubingen, first offered in the Winter Semester of 2022/23. It is meant to be a stand-alone product accompanied by code snippets and various pointers to further sources on topics of TML. The dedicated website of the book is https://trustworthyml.io/.

Several works have proposed Simplicity Bias (SB)---the tendency of standard training procedures such as Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) to find simple models---to justify why neural networks generalize well [Arpit et al. 2017, Nakkiran et al. 2019, Soudry et al. 2018]. However, the precise notion of simplicity remains vague. Furthermore, previous settings that use SB to theoretically justify why neural networks generalize well do not simultaneously capture the non-robustness of neural networks---a widely observed phenomenon in practice [Goodfellow et al. 2014, Jo and Bengio 2017]. We attempt to reconcile SB and the superior standard generalization of neural networks with the non-robustness observed in practice by designing datasets that (a) incorporate a precise notion of simplicity, (b) comprise multiple predictive features with varying levels of simplicity, and (c) capture the non-robustness of neural networks trained on real data. Through theory and empirics on these datasets, we make four observations: (i) SB of SGD and variants can be extreme: neural networks can exclusively rely on the simplest feature and remain invariant to all predictive complex features. (ii) The extreme aspect of SB could explain why seemingly benign distribution shifts and small adversarial perturbations significantly degrade model performance. (iii) Contrary to conventional wisdom, SB can also hurt generalization on the same data distribution, as SB persists even when the simplest feature has less predictive power than the more complex features. (iv) Common approaches to improve generalization and robustness---ensembles and adversarial training---can fail in mitigating SB and its pitfalls. Given the role of SB in training neural networks, we hope that the proposed datasets and methods serve as an effective testbed to evaluate novel algorithmic approaches aimed at avoiding the pitfalls of SB.

This paper presents a case study on the design, administration, post-processing, and evaluation of surveys on large language models (LLMs). It comprises two components: (1) A statistical method for eliciting beliefs encoded in LLMs. We introduce statistical measures and evaluation metrics that quantify the probability of an LLM "making a choice", the associated uncertainty, and the consistency of that choice. (2) We apply this method to study what moral beliefs are encoded in different LLMs, especially in ambiguous cases where the right choice is not obvious. We design a large-scale survey comprising 680 high-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I tell a white lie?") and 687 low-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I stop for a pedestrian on the road?"). Each scenario includes a description, two possible actions, and auxiliary labels indicating violated rules (e.g., "do not kill"). We administer the survey to 28 open- and closed-source LLMs. We find that (a) in unambiguous scenarios, most models "choose" actions that align with commonsense. In ambiguous cases, most models express uncertainty. (b) Some models are uncertain about choosing the commonsense action because their responses are sensitive to the question-wording. (c) Some models reflect clear preferences in ambiguous scenarios. Specifically, closed-source models tend to agree with each other.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) promises a path toward fully understanding how neural networks make their predictions. Prior work demonstrates that even when trained to perform simple arithmetic, models can implement a variety of algorithms (sometimes concurrently) depending on initialization and hyperparameters. Does this mean neuron-level interpretability techniques have limited applicability? We argue that high-dimensional neural networks can learn low-dimensional representations of their training data that are useful beyond simply making good predictions. Such representations can be understood through the mechanistic interpretability lens and provide insights that are surprisingly faithful to human-derived domain knowledge. This indicates that such approaches to interpretability can be useful for deriving a new understanding of a problem from models trained to solve it. As a case study, we extract nuclear physics concepts by studying models trained to reproduce nuclear data.

We introduce a benchmark to evaluate the capability of AI to solve problems in theoretical physics, focusing on high-energy theory and cosmology. The first iteration of our benchmark consists of 57 problems of varying difficulty, from undergraduate to research level. These problems are novel in the sense that they do not come from public problem collections. We evaluate our data set on various open and closed language models, including o3-mini, o1, DeepSeek-R1, GPT-4o and versions of Llama and Qwen. While we find impressive progress in model performance with the most recent models, our research-level difficulty problems are mostly unsolved. We address challenges of auto-verifiability and grading, and discuss common failure modes. While currently state-of-the art models are still of limited use for researchers, our results show that AI assisted theoretical physics research may become possible in the near future. We discuss the main obstacles towards this goal and possible strategies to overcome them. The public problems and solutions, results for various models, and updates to the data set and score distribution, are available on the website of the dataset tpbench.org.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

Ever since the Multilayered Perceptron was first introduced the connectionist community has struggled with the concept of uncertainty and how this could be represented in these types of models. This past decade has seen a lot of effort in trying to join the principled approach of probabilistic modeling with the scalable nature of deep neural networks. While the theoretical benefits of this consolidation are clear, there are also several important practical aspects of these endeavors; namely to force the models we create to represent, learn, and report uncertainty in every prediction that is made. Many of these efforts have been based on extending existing frameworks with additional structures. We present Borch, a scalable deep universal probabilistic programming language, built on top of PyTorch. The code is available for download and use in our repository https://gitlab.com/desupervised/borch.

Large language models (LLMs) perform better when they produce step-by-step, "Chain-of-Thought" (CoT) reasoning before answering a question, but it is unclear if the stated reasoning is a faithful explanation of the model's actual reasoning (i.e., its process for answering the question). We investigate hypotheses for how CoT reasoning may be unfaithful, by examining how the model predictions change when we intervene on the CoT (e.g., by adding mistakes or paraphrasing it). Models show large variation across tasks in how strongly they condition on the CoT when predicting their answer, sometimes relying heavily on the CoT and other times primarily ignoring it. CoT's performance boost does not seem to come from CoT's added test-time compute alone or from information encoded via the particular phrasing of the CoT. As models become larger and more capable, they produce less faithful reasoning on most tasks we study. Overall, our results suggest that CoT can be faithful if the circumstances such as the model size and task are carefully chosen.

State-space models (SSMs) have emerged as a potential alternative architecture for building large language models (LLMs) compared to the previously ubiquitous transformer architecture. One theoretical weakness of transformers is that they cannot express certain kinds of sequential computation and state tracking (Merrill and Sabharwal, 2023), which SSMs are explicitly designed to address via their close architectural similarity to recurrent neural networks (RNNs). But do SSMs truly have an advantage (over transformers) in expressive power for state tracking? Surprisingly, the answer is no. Our analysis reveals that the expressive power of SSMs is limited very similarly to transformers: SSMs cannot express computation outside the complexity class TC^0. In particular, this means they cannot solve simple state-tracking problems like permutation composition. It follows that SSMs are provably unable to accurately track chess moves with certain notation, evaluate code, or track entities in a long narrative. To supplement our formal analysis, we report experiments showing that Mamba-style SSMs indeed struggle with state tracking. Thus, despite its recurrent formulation, the "state" in an SSM is an illusion: SSMs have similar expressiveness limitations to non-recurrent models like transformers, which may fundamentally limit their ability to solve real-world state-tracking problems.

Despite increasingly fluent, relevant, and coherent language generation, major gaps remain between how humans and machines use language. We argue that a key dimension that is missing from our understanding of language models (LMs) is the model's ability to interpret and generate expressions of uncertainty. Whether it be the weatherperson announcing a chance of rain or a doctor giving a diagnosis, information is often not black-and-white and expressions of uncertainty provide nuance to support human-decision making. The increasing deployment of LMs in the wild motivates us to investigate whether LMs are capable of interpreting expressions of uncertainty and how LMs' behaviors change when learning to emit their own expressions of uncertainty. When injecting expressions of uncertainty into prompts (e.g., "I think the answer is..."), we discover that GPT3's generations vary upwards of 80% in accuracy based on the expression used. We analyze the linguistic characteristics of these expressions and find a drop in accuracy when naturalistic expressions of certainty are present. We find similar effects when teaching models to emit their own expressions of uncertainty, where model calibration suffers when teaching models to emit certainty rather than uncertainty. Together, these results highlight the challenges of building LMs that interpret and generate trustworthy expressions of uncertainty.

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

Despite their recent successes, Transformer-based large language models show surprising failure modes. A well-known example of such failure modes is their inability to length-generalize: solving problem instances at inference time that are longer than those seen during training. In this work, we further explore the root cause of this failure by performing a detailed analysis of model behaviors on the simple parity task. Our analysis suggests that length generalization failures are intricately related to a model's inability to perform random memory accesses within its context window. We present supporting evidence for this hypothesis by demonstrating the effectiveness of methodologies that circumvent the need for indexing or that enable random token access indirectly, through content-based addressing. We further show where and how the failure to perform random memory access manifests through attention map visualizations.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

Large language models (LLMs) excel in complex reasoning tasks, and distilling their reasoning capabilities into smaller models has shown promise. However, we uncover an interesting phenomenon, which we term the Small Model Learnability Gap: small models (leq3B parameters) do not consistently benefit from long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning or distillation from larger models. Instead, they perform better when fine-tuned on shorter, simpler reasoning chains that better align with their intrinsic learning capacity. To address this, we propose Mix Distillation, a simple yet effective strategy that balances reasoning complexity by combining long and short CoT examples or reasoning from both larger and smaller models. Our experiments demonstrate that Mix Distillation significantly improves small model reasoning performance compared to training on either data alone. These findings highlight the limitations of direct strong model distillation and underscore the importance of adapting reasoning complexity for effective reasoning capability transfer.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

Model attribution is a popular tool to explain the rationales behind model predictions. However, recent work suggests that the attributions are vulnerable to minute perturbations, which can be added to input samples to fool the attributions while maintaining the prediction outputs. Although empirical studies have shown positive performance via adversarial training, an effective certified defense method is eminently needed to understand the robustness of attributions. In this work, we propose to use uniform smoothing technique that augments the vanilla attributions by noises uniformly sampled from a certain space. It is proved that, for all perturbations within the attack region, the cosine similarity between uniformly smoothed attribution of perturbed sample and the unperturbed sample is guaranteed to be lower bounded. We also derive alternative formulations of the certification that is equivalent to the original one and provides the maximum size of perturbation or the minimum smoothing radius such that the attribution can not be perturbed. We evaluate the proposed method on three datasets and show that the proposed method can effectively protect the attributions from attacks, regardless of the architecture of networks, training schemes and the size of the datasets.

Machine learning has opened up new tools for financial fraud detection. Using a sample of annotated transactions, a machine learning classification algorithm learns to detect frauds. With growing credit card transaction volumes and rising fraud percentages there is growing interest in finding appropriate machine learning classifiers for detection. However, fraud data sets are diverse and exhibit inconsistent characteristics. As a result, a model effective on a given data set is not guaranteed to perform on another. Further, the possibility of temporal drift in data patterns and characteristics over time is high. Additionally, fraud data has massive and varying imbalance. In this work, we evaluate sampling methods as a viable pre-processing mechanism to handle imbalance and propose a data-driven classifier selection strategy for characteristic highly imbalanced fraud detection data sets. The model derived based on our selection strategy surpasses peer models, whilst working in more realistic conditions, establishing the effectiveness of the strategy.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a powerful technique to make large language models (LLMs) more capable in complex settings. RLHF proceeds as collecting human preference data, training a reward model on said data, and optimizing a base ML model with respect to said reward for extrinsic evaluation metrics (e.g. MMLU, GSM8k). RLHF relies on many assumptions about how the various pieces fit together, such as a reward model capturing human preferences and an RL optimizer extracting the right signal from a reward model. As the RLHF process involves many distinct design decisions, it is easy to assume that multiple processes are correlated and therefore numerically linked. This apparent correlation is often not true, where reward models are easily overoptimized or RL optimizers can reduce performance on tasks not modeled in the data. Notable manifestations of models trained with imperfect RLHF systems are those that are prone to refusing basic requests for safety reasons or appearing lazy in generations. As chat model evaluation becomes increasingly nuanced, the reliance on a perceived link between reward model training, RL scores, and downstream performance drives these issues, which we describe as an objective mismatch. In this paper, we illustrate the causes of this issue, reviewing relevant literature from model-based reinforcement learning, and argue for solutions. By solving objective mismatch in RLHF, the ML models of the future will be more precisely aligned to user instructions for both safety and helpfulness.

Large language models (LLMs) have a tendency to generate plausible-sounding yet factually incorrect responses, especially when queried on unfamiliar concepts. In this work, we explore the underlying mechanisms that govern how finetuned LLMs hallucinate. Our investigation reveals an interesting pattern: as inputs become more unfamiliar, LLM outputs tend to default towards a ``hedged'' prediction, whose form is determined by how the unfamiliar examples in the finetuning data are supervised. Thus, by strategically modifying these examples' supervision, we can control LLM predictions for unfamiliar inputs (e.g., teach them to say ``I don't know''). Based on these principles, we develop an RL approach that more reliably mitigates hallucinations for long-form generation tasks, by tackling the challenges presented by reward model hallucinations. We validate our findings with a series of controlled experiments in multiple-choice QA on MMLU, as well as long-form biography and book/movie plot generation tasks.

Model distillation is a technique for transferring knowledge from large language models (LLMs) to smaller ones, aiming to create resource-efficient yet high-performing models. However, excessive distillation can lead to homogenization, reducing diversity among models and impairing their ability to robustly handle complex or novel tasks. These limitations underscore the need to systematically quantify the distillation process and its impact. In this work, we propose a framework to evaluate and quantify model distillation. Our method addresses two key aspects: (1) Identifying identity cognition contradictions to assess discrepancies in how models perceive and represent identity-related information, and (2) Analyzing multi-granularity response similarities across models to measure the extent of homogenization. Experimental results demonstrate two key insights: (1) Well-known closed-source and open-source LLMs usually exhibit high distillation degrees, except for Claude, Doubao, and Gemini. (2) Base LLMs show higher distillation degrees compared to aligned LLMs. By offering a systematic approach to improve the transparency of LLM data distillation, we call for LLMs with more independent development and more transparent technical reports to improve LLMs' robustness and safety. The code and data are available under https://github.com/Aegis1863/LLMs-Distillation-Quantification.

Chomsky and others have very directly claimed that large language models (LLMs) are equally capable of learning languages that are possible and impossible for humans to learn. However, there is very little published experimental evidence to support such a claim. Here, we develop a set of synthetic impossible languages of differing complexity, each designed by systematically altering English data with unnatural word orders and grammar rules. These languages lie on an impossibility continuum: at one end are languages that are inherently impossible, such as random and irreversible shuffles of English words, and on the other, languages that may not be intuitively impossible but are often considered so in linguistics, particularly those with rules based on counting word positions. We report on a wide range of evaluations to assess the capacity of GPT-2 small models to learn these uncontroversially impossible languages, and crucially, we perform these assessments at various stages throughout training to compare the learning process for each language. Our core finding is that GPT-2 struggles to learn impossible languages when compared to English as a control, challenging the core claim. More importantly, we hope our approach opens up a productive line of inquiry in which different LLM architectures are tested on a variety of impossible languages in an effort to learn more about how LLMs can be used as tools for these cognitive and typological investigations.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit undesirable behaviors, such as hallucinations and sequence repetitions. We propose to view these behaviors as fallbacks that models exhibit under uncertainty, and investigate the connection between them. We categorize fallback behaviors -- sequence repetitions, degenerate text, and hallucinations -- and extensively analyze them in models from the same family that differ by the amount of pretraining tokens, parameter count, or the inclusion of instruction-following training. Our experiments reveal a clear and consistent ordering of fallback behaviors, across all these axes: the more advanced an LLM is (i.e., trained on more tokens, has more parameters, or instruction-tuned), its fallback behavior shifts from sequence repetitions, to degenerate text, and then to hallucinations. Moreover, the same ordering is observed throughout a single generation, even for the best-performing models; as uncertainty increases, models shift from generating hallucinations to producing degenerate text and then sequence repetitions. Lastly, we demonstrate that while common decoding techniques, such as random sampling, might alleviate some unwanted behaviors like sequence repetitions, they increase harder-to-detect hallucinations.

The increasing complexity of AI systems has made understanding their behavior a critical challenge. Numerous methods have been developed to attribute model behavior to three key aspects: input features, training data, and internal model components. However, these attribution methods are studied and applied rather independently, resulting in a fragmented landscape of approaches and terminology. This position paper argues that feature, data, and component attribution methods share fundamental similarities, and bridging them can benefit interpretability research. We conduct a detailed analysis of successful methods across three domains and present a unified view to demonstrate that these seemingly distinct methods employ similar approaches, such as perturbations, gradients, and linear approximations, differing primarily in their perspectives rather than core techniques. Our unified perspective enhances understanding of existing attribution methods, identifies shared concepts and challenges, makes this field more accessible to newcomers, and highlights new directions not only for attribution and interpretability but also for broader AI research, including model editing, steering, and regulation.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

This paper claims that machine learning (ML) largely overlooks an important facet of general intelligence: robustness to a qualitatively unknown future in an open world. Such robustness relates to Knightian uncertainty (KU) in economics, i.e. uncertainty that cannot be quantified, which is excluded from consideration in ML's key formalisms. This paper aims to identify this blind spot, argue its importance, and catalyze research into addressing it, which we believe is necessary to create truly robust open-world AI. To help illuminate the blind spot, we contrast one area of ML, reinforcement learning (RL), with the process of biological evolution. Despite staggering ongoing progress, RL still struggles in open-world situations, often failing under unforeseen situations. For example, the idea of zero-shot transferring a self-driving car policy trained only in the US to the UK currently seems exceedingly ambitious. In dramatic contrast, biological evolution routinely produces agents that thrive within an open world, sometimes even to situations that are remarkably out-of-distribution (e.g. invasive species; or humans, who do undertake such zero-shot international driving). Interestingly, evolution achieves such robustness without explicit theory, formalisms, or mathematical gradients. We explore the assumptions underlying RL's typical formalisms, showing how they limit RL's engagement with the unknown unknowns characteristic of an ever-changing complex world. Further, we identify mechanisms through which evolutionary processes foster robustness to novel and unpredictable challenges, and discuss potential pathways to algorithmically embody them. The conclusion is that the intriguing remaining fragility of ML may result from blind spots in its formalisms, and that significant gains may result from direct confrontation with the challenge of KU.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a popular research topic for generative modeling of discrete data, thanks to their superior performance over other discrete diffusion models, and are rivaling the auto-regressive models (ARMs) for language modeling tasks. The recent effort in simplifying the masked diffusion framework further leads to alignment with continuous-space diffusion models and more principled training and sampling recipes. In this paper, however, we reveal that both training and sampling of MDMs are theoretically free from the time variable, arguably the key signature of diffusion models, and are instead equivalent to masked models. The connection on the sampling aspect is drawn by our proposed first-hitting sampler (FHS). Specifically, we show that the FHS is theoretically equivalent to MDMs' original generation process while significantly alleviating the time-consuming categorical sampling and achieving a 20times speedup. In addition, our investigation raises doubts about whether MDMs can truly beat ARMs. We identify, for the first time, an underlying numerical issue, even with the commonly used 32-bit floating-point precision, which results in inaccurate categorical sampling. We show that the numerical issue lowers the effective temperature both theoretically and empirically, and the resulting decrease in token diversity makes previous evaluations, which assess the generation quality solely through the incomplete generative perplexity metric, somewhat unfair.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment between their self-assessed confidence and actual performance. We exploit these models with diverse sets of questionnaires and real-world scenarios and extract how LLMs exhibit confidence in their responses. Our findings reveal intriguing instances where models demonstrate high confidence even when they answer incorrectly. This is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect observed in human psychology. In contrast, there are cases where models exhibit low confidence with correct answers revealing potential underestimation biases. Our results underscore the need for a deeper understanding of their cognitive processes. By examining the nuances of LLMs' self-assessment mechanism, this investigation provides noteworthy revelations that serve to advance the functionalities and broaden the potential applications of these formidable language models.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) reveal a perplexing phenomenon in continual learning: despite extensive training, models experience significant performance declines, raising questions about task alignment and underlying knowledge retention. This study first explores the concept of "spurious forgetting", proposing that such performance drops often reflect a decline in task alignment rather than true knowledge loss. Through controlled experiments with a synthesized dataset, we investigate the dynamics of model performance during the initial training phases of new tasks, discovering that early optimization steps can disrupt previously established task alignments. Our theoretical analysis connects these shifts to orthogonal updates in model weights, providing a robust framework for understanding this behavior. Ultimately, we introduce a Freezing strategy that fix the bottom layers of the model, leading to substantial improvements in four continual learning scenarios. Our findings underscore the critical distinction between task alignment and knowledge retention, paving the way for more effective strategies in continual learning.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Language models (LMs) can make a correct prediction based on many possible signals in a prompt, not all corresponding to recall of factual associations. However, current interpretations of LMs fail to take this into account. For example, given the query "Astrid Lindgren was born in" with the corresponding completion "Sweden", no difference is made between whether the prediction was based on knowing where the author was born or assuming that a person with a Swedish-sounding name was born in Sweden. In this paper, we present a model-specific recipe - PrISM - for constructing datasets with examples of four different prediction scenarios: generic language modeling, guesswork, heuristics recall and exact fact recall. We apply two popular interpretability methods to the scenarios: causal tracing (CT) and information flow analysis. We find that both yield distinct results for each scenario. Results for exact fact recall and generic language modeling scenarios confirm previous conclusions about the importance of mid-range MLP sublayers for fact recall, while results for guesswork and heuristics indicate a critical role of late last token position MLP sublayers. In summary, we contribute resources for a more extensive and granular study of fact completion in LMs, together with analyses that provide a more nuanced understanding of how LMs process fact-related queries.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive success on many benchmarks for mathematical reasoning. However, there is growing concern that some of this performance actually reflects dataset contamination, where data closely resembling benchmark questions leaks into the training data, instead of true reasoning ability. To investigate this claim rigorously, we commission Grade School Math 1000 (GSM1k). GSM1k is designed to mirror the style and complexity of the established GSM8k benchmark, the gold standard for measuring elementary mathematical reasoning. We ensure that the two benchmarks are comparable across important metrics such as human solve rates, number of steps in solution, answer magnitude, and more. When evaluating leading open- and closed-source LLMs on GSM1k, we observe accuracy drops of up to 13%, with several families of models (e.g., Phi and Mistral) showing evidence of systematic overfitting across almost all model sizes. At the same time, many models, especially those on the frontier, (e.g., Gemini/GPT/Claude) show minimal signs of overfitting. Further analysis suggests a positive relationship (Spearman's r^2=0.32) between a model's probability of generating an example from GSM8k and its performance gap between GSM8k and GSM1k, suggesting that many models may have partially memorized GSM8k.

Understanding the inner workings of machine learning models like Transformers is vital for their safe and ethical use. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of a one-layer Transformer model trained to perform n-digit integer addition. Our findings suggest that the model dissects the task into parallel streams dedicated to individual digits, employing varied algorithms tailored to different positions within the digits. Furthermore, we identify a rare scenario characterized by high loss, which we explain. By thoroughly elucidating the model's algorithm, we provide new insights into its functioning. These findings are validated through rigorous testing and mathematical modeling, thereby contributing to the broader fields of model understanding and interpretability. Our approach opens the door for analyzing more complex tasks and multi-layer Transformer models.

While numerous works have assessed the generative performance of language models (LMs) on tasks requiring Theory of Mind reasoning, research into the models' internal representation of mental states remains limited. Recent work has used probing to demonstrate that LMs can represent beliefs of themselves and others. However, these claims are accompanied by limited evaluation, making it difficult to assess how mental state representations are affected by model design and training choices. We report an extensive benchmark with various LM types with different model sizes, fine-tuning approaches, and prompt designs to study the robustness of mental state representations and memorisation issues within the probes. Our results show that the quality of models' internal representations of the beliefs of others increases with model size and, more crucially, with fine-tuning. We are the first to study how prompt variations impact probing performance on theory of mind tasks. We demonstrate that models' representations are sensitive to prompt variations, even when such variations should be beneficial. Finally, we complement previous activation editing experiments on Theory of Mind tasks and show that it is possible to improve models' reasoning performance by steering their activations without the need to train any probe.

We propose using Normalizing Flows as a trainable kernel within the molecular dynamics update of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). By learning (invertible) transformations that simplify our dynamics, we can outperform traditional methods at generating independent configurations. We show that, using a carefully constructed network architecture, our approach can be easily scaled to large lattice volumes with minimal retraining effort. The source code for our implementation is publicly available online at https://github.com/nftqcd/fthmc.

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

Generative models trained on internet-scale data are capable of generating novel and realistic texts, images, and videos. A natural next question is whether these models can advance science, for example by generating novel stable materials. Traditionally, models with explicit structures (e.g., graphs) have been used in modeling structural relationships in scientific data (e.g., atoms and bonds in crystals), but generating structures can be difficult to scale to large and complex systems. Another challenge in generating materials is the mismatch between standard generative modeling metrics and downstream applications. For instance, common metrics such as the reconstruction error do not correlate well with the downstream goal of discovering stable materials. In this work, we tackle the scalability challenge by developing a unified crystal representation that can represent any crystal structure (UniMat), followed by training a diffusion probabilistic model on these UniMat representations. Our empirical results suggest that despite the lack of explicit structure modeling, UniMat can generate high fidelity crystal structures from larger and more complex chemical systems, outperforming previous graph-based approaches under various generative modeling metrics. To better connect the generation quality of materials to downstream applications, such as discovering novel stable materials, we propose additional metrics for evaluating generative models of materials, including per-composition formation energy and stability with respect to convex hulls through decomposition energy from Density Function Theory (DFT). Lastly, we show that conditional generation with UniMat can scale to previously established crystal datasets with up to millions of crystals structures, outperforming random structure search (the current leading method for structure discovery) in discovering new stable materials.

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.