Daily Papers

High-definition (HD) maps have played an integral role in the development of modern autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks, albeit with high associated labeling and maintenance costs. As a result, many recent works have proposed methods for estimating HD maps online from sensor data, enabling AVs to operate outside of previously-mapped regions. However, current online map estimation approaches are developed in isolation of their downstream tasks, complicating their integration in AV stacks. In particular, they do not produce uncertainty or confidence estimates. In this work, we extend multiple state-of-the-art online map estimation methods to additionally estimate uncertainty and show how this enables more tightly integrating online mapping with trajectory forecasting. In doing so, we find that incorporating uncertainty yields up to 50% faster training convergence and up to 15% better prediction performance on the real-world nuScenes driving dataset.

We address the problem of active mapping with a continually-learned neural scene representation, namely Active Neural Mapping. The key lies in actively finding the target space to be explored with efficient agent movement, thus minimizing the map uncertainty on-the-fly within a previously unseen environment. In this paper, we examine the weight space of the continually-learned neural field, and show empirically that the neural variability, the prediction robustness against random weight perturbation, can be directly utilized to measure the instant uncertainty of the neural map. Together with the continuous geometric information inherited in the neural map, the agent can be guided to find a traversable path to gradually gain knowledge of the environment. We present for the first time an active mapping system with a coordinate-based implicit neural representation for online scene reconstruction. Experiments in the visually-realistic Gibson and Matterport3D environment demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

Multimodal semantic understanding often has to deal with uncertainty, which means the obtained messages tend to refer to multiple targets. Such uncertainty is problematic for our interpretation, including inter- and intra-modal uncertainty. Little effort has studied the modeling of this uncertainty, particularly in pre-training on unlabeled datasets and fine-tuning in task-specific downstream datasets. In this paper, we project the representations of all modalities as probabilistic distributions via a Probability Distribution Encoder (PDE) by utilizing sequence-level interactions. Compared to the existing deterministic methods, such uncertainty modeling can convey richer multimodal semantic information and more complex relationships. Furthermore, we integrate uncertainty modeling with popular pre-training frameworks and propose suitable pre-training tasks: Distribution-based Vision-Language Contrastive learning (D-VLC), Distribution-based Masked Language Modeling (D-MLM), and Distribution-based Image-Text Matching (D-ITM). The fine-tuned models are applied to challenging downstream tasks, including image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment, and achieve state-of-the-art results.

Background. Fully automatic analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI datasets enables rapid and objective reporting of stress/rest studies in patients with suspected ischemic heart disease. Developing deep learning techniques that can analyze multi-center datasets despite limited training data and variations in software and hardware is an ongoing challenge. Methods. Datasets from 3 medical centers acquired at 3T (n = 150 subjects) were included: an internal dataset (inD; n = 95) and two external datasets (exDs; n = 55) used for evaluating the robustness of the trained deep neural network (DNN) models against differences in pulse sequence (exD-1) and scanner vendor (exD-2). A subset of inD (n = 85) was used for training/validation of a pool of DNNs for segmentation, all using the same spatiotemporal U-Net architecture and hyperparameters but with different parameter initializations. We employed a space-time sliding-patch analysis approach that automatically yields a pixel-wise "uncertainty map" as a byproduct of the segmentation process. In our approach, a given test case is segmented by all members of the DNN pool and the resulting uncertainty maps are leveraged to automatically select the "best" one among the pool of solutions. Results. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach performed similarly to the established approach on the internal dataset (p = n.s.) whereas it significantly outperformed on the external datasets (p < 0.005 for exD-1 and exD-2). Moreover, the number of image series with "failed" segmentation was significantly lower for the proposed vs. the established approach (4.3% vs. 17.1%, p < 0.0005). Conclusions. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach has the potential to improve the robustness of deep learning methods for segmentation of multi-center stress perfusion datasets with variations in the choice of pulse sequence, site location or scanner vendor.

Dependable visual drone detection is crucial for the secure integration of drones into the airspace. However, drone detection accuracy is significantly affected by domain shifts due to environmental changes, varied points of view, and background shifts. To address these challenges, we present the DrIFT dataset, specifically developed for visual drone detection under domain shifts. DrIFT includes fourteen distinct domains, each characterized by shifts in point of view, synthetic-to-real data, season, and adverse weather. DrIFT uniquely emphasizes background shift by providing background segmentation maps to enable background-wise metrics and evaluation. Our new uncertainty estimation metric, MCDO-map, features lower postprocessing complexity, surpassing traditional methods. We use the MCDO-map in our uncertainty-aware unsupervised domain adaptation method, demonstrating superior performance to SOTA unsupervised domain adaptation techniques. The dataset is available at: https://github.com/CARG-uOttawa/DrIFT.git.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

The capability to efficiently search for objects in complex environments is fundamental for many real-world robot applications. Recent advances in open-vocabulary vision models have resulted in semantically-informed object navigation methods that allow a robot to search for an arbitrary object without prior training. However, these zero-shot methods have so far treated the environment as unknown for each consecutive query. In this paper we introduce a new benchmark for zero-shot multi-object navigation, allowing the robot to leverage information gathered from previous searches to more efficiently find new objects. To address this problem we build a reusable open-vocabulary feature map tailored for real-time object search. We further propose a probabilistic-semantic map update that mitigates common sources of errors in semantic feature extraction and leverage this semantic uncertainty for informed multi-object exploration. We evaluate our method on a set of object navigation tasks in both simulation as well as with a real robot, running in real-time on a Jetson Orin AGX. We demonstrate that it outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches both on single and multi-object navigation tasks. Additional videos, code and the multi-object navigation benchmark will be available on https://finnbsch.github.io/OneMap.

While bird's-eye-view (BEV) perception models can be useful for building high-definition maps (HD-Maps) with less human labor, their results are often unreliable and demonstrate noticeable inconsistencies in the predicted HD-Maps from different viewpoints. This is because BEV perception is typically set up in an 'onboard' manner, which restricts the computation and consequently prevents algorithms from reasoning multiple views simultaneously. This paper overcomes these limitations and advocates a more practical 'offboard' HD-Map generation setup that removes the computation constraints, based on the fact that HD-Maps are commonly reusable infrastructures built offline in data centers. To this end, we propose a novel offboard pipeline called MV-Map that capitalizes multi-view consistency and can handle an arbitrary number of frames with the key design of a 'region-centric' framework. In MV-Map, the target HD-Maps are created by aggregating all the frames of onboard predictions, weighted by the confidence scores assigned by an 'uncertainty network'. To further enhance multi-view consistency, we augment the uncertainty network with the global 3D structure optimized by a voxelized neural radiance field (Voxel-NeRF). Extensive experiments on nuScenes show that our MV-Map significantly improves the quality of HD-Maps, further highlighting the importance of offboard methods for HD-Map generation.

Camera localization, i.e., camera pose regression, represents an important task in computer vision since it has many practical applications such as in the context of intelligent vehicles and their localization. Having reliable estimates of the regression uncertainties is also important, as it would allow us to catch dangerous localization failures. In the literature, uncertainty estimation in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) is often performed through sampling methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Deep Ensemble (DE), at the expense of undesirable execution time or an increase in hardware resources. In this work, we considered an uncertainty estimation approach named Deep Evidential Regression (DER) that avoids any sampling technique, providing direct uncertainty estimates. Our goal is to provide a systematic approach to intercept localization failures of camera localization systems based on DNNs architectures, by analyzing the generated uncertainties. We propose to exploit CMRNet, a DNN approach for multi-modal image to LiDAR map registration, by modifying its internal configuration to allow for extensive experimental activity on the KITTI dataset. The experimental section highlights CMRNet's major flaws and proves that our proposal does not compromise the original localization performances but also provides, at the same time, the necessary introspection measures that would allow end-users to act accordingly.

Despite tremendous advancements in bird's-eye view (BEV) perception, existing models fall short in generating realistic and coherent semantic map layouts, and they fail to account for uncertainties arising from partial sensor information (such as occlusion or limited coverage). In this work, we introduce MapPrior, a novel BEV perception framework that combines a traditional discriminative BEV perception model with a learned generative model for semantic map layouts. Our MapPrior delivers predictions with better accuracy, realism, and uncertainty awareness. We evaluate our model on the large-scale nuScenes benchmark. At the time of submission, MapPrior outperforms the strongest competing method, with significantly improved MMD and ECE scores in camera- and LiDAR-based BEV perception.

We introduce a novel neural network, SkyReconNet, which combines the expanded receptive fields of dilated convolutional layers along with standard convolutions, to capture both the global and local features for reconstructing the missing information in an image. We implement our network to inpaint the masked regions in a full-sky Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) map. Inpainting CMB maps is a particularly formidable challenge when dealing with extensive and irregular masks, such as galactic masks which can obscure substantial fractions of the sky. The hybrid design of SkyReconNet leverages the strengths of standard and dilated convolutions to accurately predict CMB fluctuations in the masked regions, by effectively utilizing the information from surrounding unmasked areas. During training, the network optimizes its weights by minimizing a composite loss function that combines the Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) and mean squared error (MSE). SSIM preserves the essential structural features of the CMB, ensuring an accurate and coherent reconstruction of the missing CMB fluctuations, while MSE minimizes the pixel-wise deviations, enhancing the overall accuracy of the predictions. The predicted CMB maps and their corresponding angular power spectra align closely with the targets, achieving the performance limited only by the fundamental uncertainty of cosmic variance. The network's generic architecture enables application to other physics-based challenges involving data with missing or defective pixels, systematic artefacts etc. Our results demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing the challenges posed by large irregular masks, offering a significant inpainting tool not only for CMB analyses but also for image-based experiments across disciplines where such data imperfections are prevalent.

Modern music retrieval systems often rely on fixed representations of user preferences, limiting their ability to capture users' diverse and uncertain retrieval needs. To address this limitation, we introduce Diff4Steer, a novel generative retrieval framework that employs lightweight diffusion models to synthesize diverse seed embeddings from user queries that represent potential directions for music exploration. Unlike deterministic methods that map user query to a single point in embedding space, Diff4Steer provides a statistical prior on the target modality (audio) for retrieval, effectively capturing the uncertainty and multi-faceted nature of user preferences. Furthermore, Diff4Steer can be steered by image or text inputs, enabling more flexible and controllable music discovery combined with nearest neighbor search. Our framework outperforms deterministic regression methods and LLM-based generative retrieval baseline in terms of retrieval and ranking metrics, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing user preferences, leading to more diverse and relevant recommendations. Listening examples are available at tinyurl.com/diff4steer.

Instruction tuning (IT) achieves impressive zero-shot generalization results by training large language models (LLMs) on a massive amount of diverse tasks with instructions. However, how to select new tasks to improve the performance and generalizability of IT models remains an open question. Training on all existing tasks is impractical due to prohibiting computation requirements, and randomly selecting tasks can lead to suboptimal performance. In this work, we propose active instruction tuning based on prompt uncertainty, a novel framework to identify informative tasks, and then actively tune the models on the selected tasks. We represent the informativeness of new tasks with the disagreement of the current model outputs over perturbed prompts. Our experiments on NIV2 and Self-Instruct datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms other baseline strategies for task selection, achieving better out-of-distribution generalization with fewer training tasks. Additionally, we introduce a task map that categorizes and diagnoses tasks based on prompt uncertainty and prediction probability. We discover that training on ambiguous (prompt-uncertain) tasks improves generalization while training on difficult (prompt-certain and low-probability) tasks offers no benefit, underscoring the importance of task selection for instruction tuning.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

High dynamic range (HDR) imaging is of fundamental importance in modern digital photography pipelines and used to produce a high-quality photograph with well exposed regions despite varying illumination across the image. This is typically achieved by merging multiple low dynamic range (LDR) images taken at different exposures. However, over-exposed regions and misalignment errors due to poorly compensated motion result in artefacts such as ghosting. In this paper, we present a new HDR imaging technique that specifically models alignment and exposure uncertainties to produce high quality HDR results. We introduce a strategy that learns to jointly align and assess the alignment and exposure reliability using an HDR-aware, uncertainty-driven attention map that robustly merges the frames into a single high quality HDR image. Further, we introduce a progressive, multi-stage image fusion approach that can flexibly merge any number of LDR images in a permutation-invariant manner. Experimental results show our method can produce better quality HDR images with up to 1.1dB PSNR improvement to the state-of-the-art, and subjective improvements in terms of better detail, colours, and fewer artefacts.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

Predictive uncertainty estimation is essential for safe deployment of Deep Neural Networks in real-world autonomous systems. However, disentangling the different types and sources of uncertainty is non trivial for most datasets, especially since there is no ground truth for uncertainty. In addition, while adverse weather conditions of varying intensities can disrupt neural network predictions, they are usually under-represented in both training and test sets in public datasets.We attempt to mitigate these setbacks and introduce the MUAD dataset (Multiple Uncertainties for Autonomous Driving), consisting of 10,413 realistic synthetic images with diverse adverse weather conditions (night, fog, rain, snow), out-of-distribution objects, and annotations for semantic segmentation, depth estimation, object, and instance detection. MUAD allows to better assess the impact of different sources of uncertainty on model performance. We conduct a thorough experimental study of this impact on several baseline Deep Neural Networks across multiple tasks, and release our dataset to allow researchers to benchmark their algorithm methodically in adverse conditions. More visualizations and the download link for MUAD are available at https://muad-dataset.github.io/.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack grounding in real-world facts, a phenomenon known as hallucinations. Prior research has associated hallucinations with model uncertainty, leveraging this relationship for hallucination detection and mitigation. In this paper, we challenge the underlying assumption that all hallucinations are associated with uncertainty. Using knowledge detection and uncertainty measurement methods, we demonstrate that models can hallucinate with high certainty even when they have the correct knowledge. We further show that high-certainty hallucinations are consistent across models and datasets, distinctive enough to be singled out, and challenge existing mitigation methods. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of hallucinations, emphasizing the need to understand their origins and improve mitigation strategies to enhance LLM safety. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/Trust_me_Im_wrong .

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate their uncertainty to end users. However, there has been little empirical work examining how users perceive and act upon LLMs' expressions of uncertainty. We explore this question through a large-scale, pre-registered, human-subject experiment (N=404) in which participants answer medical questions with or without access to responses from a fictional LLM-infused search engine. Using both behavioral and self-reported measures, we examine how different natural language expressions of uncertainty impact participants' reliance, trust, and overall task performance. We find that first-person expressions (e.g., "I'm not sure, but...") decrease participants' confidence in the system and tendency to agree with the system's answers, while increasing participants' accuracy. An exploratory analysis suggests that this increase can be attributed to reduced (but not fully eliminated) overreliance on incorrect answers. While we observe similar effects for uncertainty expressed from a general perspective (e.g., "It's not clear, but..."), these effects are weaker and not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that using natural language expressions of uncertainty may be an effective approach for reducing overreliance on LLMs, but that the precise language used matters. This highlights the importance of user testing before deploying LLMs at scale.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made great strides in recent years to achieve unprecedented performance across different tasks. However, due to commercial interest, the most competitive models like GPT, Gemini, and Claude have been gated behind proprietary interfaces without disclosing the training details. Recently, many institutions have open-sourced several strong LLMs like LLaMA-3, comparable to existing closed-source LLMs. However, only the model's weights are provided with most details (e.g., intermediate checkpoints, pre-training corpus, and training code, etc.) being undisclosed. To improve the transparency of LLMs, the research community has formed to open-source truly open LLMs (e.g., Pythia, Amber, OLMo), where more details (e.g., pre-training corpus and training code) are being provided. These models have greatly advanced the scientific study of these large models including their strengths, weaknesses, biases and risks. However, we observe that the existing truly open LLMs on reasoning, knowledge, and coding tasks are still inferior to existing state-of-the-art LLMs with similar model sizes. To this end, we open-source MAP-Neo, a highly capable and transparent bilingual language model with 7B parameters trained from scratch on 4.5T high-quality tokens. Our MAP-Neo is the first fully open-sourced bilingual LLM with comparable performance compared to existing state-of-the-art LLMs. Moreover, we open-source all details to reproduce our MAP-Neo, where the cleaned pre-training corpus, data cleaning pipeline, checkpoints, and well-optimized training/evaluation framework are provided. Finally, we hope our MAP-Neo will enhance and strengthen the open research community and inspire more innovations and creativities to facilitate the further improvements of LLMs.

Top-down Bird's Eye View (BEV) maps are a popular representation for ground robot navigation due to their richness and flexibility for downstream tasks. While recent methods have shown promise for predicting BEV maps from First-Person View (FPV) images, their generalizability is limited to small regions captured by current autonomous vehicle-based datasets. In this context, we show that a more scalable approach towards generalizable map prediction can be enabled by using two large-scale crowd-sourced mapping platforms, Mapillary for FPV images and OpenStreetMap for BEV semantic maps. We introduce Map It Anywhere (MIA), a data engine that enables seamless curation and modeling of labeled map prediction data from existing open-source map platforms. Using our MIA data engine, we display the ease of automatically collecting a dataset of 1.2 million pairs of FPV images & BEV maps encompassing diverse geographies, landscapes, environmental factors, camera models & capture scenarios. We further train a simple camera model-agnostic model on this data for BEV map prediction. Extensive evaluations using established benchmarks and our dataset show that the data curated by MIA enables effective pretraining for generalizable BEV map prediction, with zero-shot performance far exceeding baselines trained on existing datasets by 35%. Our analysis highlights the promise of using large-scale public maps for developing & testing generalizable BEV perception, paving the way for more robust autonomous navigation.

In this paper, we propose OpenSatMap, a fine-grained, high-resolution satellite dataset for large-scale map construction. Map construction is one of the foundations of the transportation industry, such as navigation and autonomous driving. Extracting road structures from satellite images is an efficient way to construct large-scale maps. However, existing satellite datasets provide only coarse semantic-level labels with a relatively low resolution (up to level 19), impeding the advancement of this field. In contrast, the proposed OpenSatMap (1) has fine-grained instance-level annotations; (2) consists of high-resolution images (level 20); (3) is currently the largest one of its kind; (4) collects data with high diversity. Moreover, OpenSatMap covers and aligns with the popular nuScenes dataset and Argoverse 2 dataset to potentially advance autonomous driving technologies. By publishing and maintaining the dataset, we provide a high-quality benchmark for satellite-based map construction and downstream tasks like autonomous driving.

The deep learning community has witnessed an exponentially growing interest in self-supervised learning (SSL). However, it still remains unexplored how to build a framework for learning useful representations of raw music waveforms in a self-supervised manner. In this work, we design Music2Vec, a framework exploring different SSL algorithmic components and tricks for music audio recordings. Our model achieves comparable results to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) music SSL model Jukebox, despite being significantly smaller with less than 2% of parameters of the latter. The model will be released on Huggingface(Please refer to: https://huggingface.co/m-a-p/music2vec-v1)

Can we relocalize in a scene represented by a single reference image? Standard visual relocalization requires hundreds of images and scale calibration to build a scene-specific 3D map. In contrast, we propose Map-free Relocalization, i.e., using only one photo of a scene to enable instant, metric scaled relocalization. Existing datasets are not suitable to benchmark map-free relocalization, due to their focus on large scenes or their limited variability. Thus, we have constructed a new dataset of 655 small places of interest, such as sculptures, murals and fountains, collected worldwide. Each place comes with a reference image to serve as a relocalization anchor, and dozens of query images with known, metric camera poses. The dataset features changing conditions, stark viewpoint changes, high variability across places, and queries with low to no visual overlap with the reference image. We identify two viable families of existing methods to provide baseline results: relative pose regression, and feature matching combined with single-image depth prediction. While these methods show reasonable performance on some favorable scenes in our dataset, map-free relocalization proves to be a challenge that requires new, innovative solutions.

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Language models have demonstrated impressive capabilities across various natural language processing tasks, yet they struggle with planning tasks requiring multi-step simulations. Inspired by human cognitive processes, this paper investigates the optimal planning power of language models that can construct a cognitive map of a given environment. Our experiments demonstrate that cognitive map significantly enhances the performance of both optimal and reachable planning generation ability in the Gridworld path planning task. We observe that our method showcases two key characteristics similar to human cognition: generalization of its planning ability to extrapolated environments and rapid adaptation with limited training data. We hope our findings in the Gridworld task provide insights into modeling human cognitive processes in language models, potentially leading to the development of more advanced and robust systems that better resemble human cognition.

Over the last years, several works have explored the application of deep learning algorithms to determine the large-scale signal fading (also referred to as ``path loss'') between transmitter and receiver pairs in urban communication networks. The central idea is to replace costly measurement campaigns, inaccurate statistical models or computationally expensive ray-tracing simulations by machine learning models which, once trained, produce accurate predictions almost instantly. Although the topic has attracted attention from many researchers, there are few open benchmark datasets and codebases that would allow everyone to test and compare the developed methods and algorithms. We take a step towards filling this gap by releasing a publicly available dataset of simulated path loss radio maps together with realistic city maps from real-world locations and aerial images from open datasources. Initial experiments regarding model architectures, input feature design and estimation of radio maps from aerial images are presented and the code is made available.

As the globalization of semiconductor design and manufacturing processes continues, the demand for defect detection during integrated circuit fabrication stages is becoming increasingly critical, playing a significant role in enhancing the yield of semiconductor products. Traditional wafer map defect pattern detection methods involve manual inspection using electron microscopes to collect sample images, which are then assessed by experts for defects. This approach is labor-intensive and inefficient. Consequently, there is a pressing need to develop a model capable of automatically detecting defects as an alternative to manual operations. In this paper, we propose a method that initially employs a pre-trained VAE model to obtain the fault distribution information of the wafer map. This information serves as guidance, combined with the original image set for semi-supervised model training. During the semi-supervised training, we utilize a teacher-student network for iterative learning. The model presented in this paper is validated on the benchmark dataset WM-811K wafer dataset. The experimental results demonstrate superior classification accuracy and detection performance compared to state-of-the-art models, fulfilling the requirements for industrial applications. Compared to the original architecture, we have achieved significant performance improvement.

Being able to perceive the semantics and the spatial structure of the environment is essential for visual navigation of a household robot. However, most existing works only employ visual backbones pre-trained either with independent images for classification or with self-supervised learning methods to adapt to the indoor navigation domain, neglecting the spatial relationships that are essential to the learning of navigation. Inspired by the behavior that humans naturally build semantically and spatially meaningful cognitive maps in their brains during navigation, in this paper, we propose a novel navigational-specific visual representation learning method by contrasting the agent's egocentric views and semantic maps (Ego^2-Map). We apply the visual transformer as the backbone encoder and train the model with data collected from the large-scale Habitat-Matterport3D environments. Ego^2-Map learning transfers the compact and rich information from a map, such as objects, structure and transition, to the agent's egocentric representations for navigation. Experiments show that agents using our learned representations on object-goal navigation outperform recent visual pre-training methods. Moreover, our representations significantly improve vision-and-language navigation in continuous environments for both high-level and low-level action spaces, achieving new state-of-the-art results of 47% SR and 41% SPL on the test server.

Next generations of radio surveys are expected to identify tens of millions of new sources, and identifying and classifying their morphologies will require novel and more efficient methods. Self-Organising Maps (SOMs), a type of unsupervised machine learning, can be used to address this problem. We map 251,259 multi-Gaussian sources from Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) onto a SOM with discrete neurons. Similarity metrics, such as Euclidean distances, can be used to identify the best-matching neuron or unit (BMU) for each input image. We establish a reliability threshold by visually inspecting a subset of input images and their corresponding BMU. We label the individual neurons based on observed morphologies and these labels are included in our value-added catalogue of RACS sources. Sources for which the Euclidean distance to their BMU is lesssim 5 (accounting for approximately 79% of sources) have an estimated >90% reliability for their SOM-derived morphological labels. This reliability falls to less than 70% at Euclidean distances gtrsim 7. Beyond this threshold it is unlikely that the morphological label will accurately describe a given source. Our catalogue of complex radio sources from RACS with their SOM-derived morphological labels from this work will be made publicly available.

Monocular camera calibration is a key precondition for numerous 3D vision applications. Despite considerable advancements, existing methods often hinge on specific assumptions and struggle to generalize across varied real-world scenarios, and the performance is limited by insufficient training data. Recently, diffusion models trained on expansive datasets have been confirmed to maintain the capability to generate diverse, high-quality images. This success suggests a strong potential of the models to effectively understand varied visual information. In this work, we leverage the comprehensive visual knowledge embedded in pre-trained diffusion models to enable more robust and accurate monocular camera intrinsic estimation. Specifically, we reformulate the problem of estimating the four degrees of freedom (4-DoF) of camera intrinsic parameters as a dense incident map generation task. The map details the angle of incidence for each pixel in the RGB image, and its format aligns well with the paradigm of diffusion models. The camera intrinsic then can be derived from the incident map with a simple non-learning RANSAC algorithm during inference. Moreover, to further enhance the performance, we jointly estimate a depth map to provide extra geometric information for the incident map estimation. Extensive experiments on multiple testing datasets demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance, gaining up to a 40% reduction in prediction errors. Besides, the experiments also show that the precise camera intrinsic and depth maps estimated by our pipeline can greatly benefit practical applications such as 3D reconstruction from a single in-the-wild image.

We are interested in the generation of navigation instructions, either in their own right or as training material for robotic navigation task. In this paper, we propose a new approach to navigation instruction generation by framing the problem as an image captioning task using semantic maps as visual input. Conventional approaches employ a sequence of panorama images to generate navigation instructions. Semantic maps abstract away from visual details and fuse the information in multiple panorama images into a single top-down representation, thereby reducing computational complexity to process the input. We present a benchmark dataset for instruction generation using semantic maps, propose an initial model and ask human subjects to manually assess the quality of generated instructions. Our initial investigations show promise in using semantic maps for instruction generation instead of a sequence of panorama images, but there is vast scope for improvement. We release the code for data preparation and model training at https://github.com/chengzu-li/VLGen.

Text-guided diffusion models have become a popular tool in image synthesis, known for producing high-quality and diverse images. However, their application to editing real images often encounters hurdles primarily due to the text condition deteriorating the reconstruction quality and subsequently affecting editing fidelity. Null-text Inversion (NTI) has made strides in this area, but it fails to capture spatial context and requires computationally intensive per-timestep optimization. Addressing these challenges, we present Noise Map Guidance (NMG), an inversion method rich in a spatial context, tailored for real-image editing. Significantly, NMG achieves this without necessitating optimization, yet preserves the editing quality. Our empirical investigations highlight NMG's adaptability across various editing techniques and its robustness to variants of DDIM inversions.

Embodied agents equipped with GPT as their brain have exhibited extraordinary thinking and decision-making abilities across various tasks. However, existing zero-shot agents for vision-and-language navigation (VLN) only prompt the GPT to handle excessive environmental information and select potential locations within localized environments, without constructing an effective ''global-view'' (e.g., a commonly-used map) for the agent to understand the overall environment. In this work, we present a novel map-guided GPT-based path-planning agent, dubbed MapGPT, for the zero-shot VLN task. Specifically, we convert a topological map constructed online into prompts to encourage map-guided global exploration, and require the agent to explicitly output and update multi-step path planning to avoid getting stuck in local exploration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our MapGPT is effective, achieving impressive performance on both the R2R and REVERIE datasets (38.8% and 28.4% success rate, respectively) and showcasing the newly emerged global thinking and path planning capabilities of the GPT model. Unlike previous VLN agents, which require separate parameters fine-tuning or specific prompt design to accommodate various instruction styles across different datasets, our MapGPT is more unified as it can adapt to different instruction styles seamlessly, which is the first of its kind in this field.

A map, as crucial information for downstream applications of an autonomous driving system, is usually represented in lanelines or centerlines. However, existing literature on map learning primarily focuses on either detecting geometry-based lanelines or perceiving topology relationships of centerlines. Both of these methods ignore the intrinsic relationship of lanelines and centerlines, that lanelines bind centerlines. While simply predicting both types of lane in one model is mutually excluded in learning objective, we advocate lane segment as a new representation that seamlessly incorporates both geometry and topology information. Thus, we introduce LaneSegNet, the first end-to-end mapping network generating lane segments to obtain a complete representation of the road structure. Our algorithm features two key modifications. One is a lane attention module to capture pivotal region details within the long-range feature space. Another is an identical initialization strategy for reference points, which enhances the learning of positional priors for lane attention. On the OpenLane-V2 dataset, LaneSegNet outperforms previous counterparts by a substantial gain across three tasks, i.e., map element detection (+4.8 mAP), centerline perception (+6.9 DET_l), and the newly defined one, lane segment perception (+5.6 mAP). Furthermore, it obtains a real-time inference speed of 14.7 FPS. Code is accessible at https://github.com/OpenDriveLab/LaneSegNet.

Saliency maps can explain a neural model's predictions by identifying important input features. They are difficult to interpret for laypeople, especially for instances with many features. In order to make them more accessible, we formalize the underexplored task of translating saliency maps into natural language and compare methods that address two key challenges of this approach -- what and how to verbalize. In both automatic and human evaluation setups, using token-level attributions from text classification tasks, we compare two novel methods (search-based and instruction-based verbalizations) against conventional feature importance representations (heatmap visualizations and extractive rationales), measuring simulatability, faithfulness, helpfulness and ease of understanding. Instructing GPT-3.5 to generate saliency map verbalizations yields plausible explanations which include associations, abstractive summarization and commonsense reasoning, achieving by far the highest human ratings, but they are not faithfully capturing numeric information and are inconsistent in their interpretation of the task. In comparison, our search-based, model-free verbalization approach efficiently completes templated verbalizations, is faithful by design, but falls short in helpfulness and simulatability. Our results suggest that saliency map verbalization makes feature attribution explanations more comprehensible and less cognitively challenging to humans than conventional representations.

Correctness of instance segmentation constitutes counting the number of objects, correctly localizing all predictions and classifying each localized prediction. Average Precision is the de-facto metric used to measure all these constituents of segmentation. However, this metric does not penalize duplicate predictions in the high-recall range, and cannot distinguish instances that are localized correctly but categorized incorrectly. This weakness has inadvertently led to network designs that achieve significant gains in AP but also introduce a large number of false positives. We therefore cannot rely on AP to choose a model that provides an optimal tradeoff between false positives and high recall. To resolve this dilemma, we review alternative metrics in the literature and propose two new measures to explicitly measure the amount of both spatial and categorical duplicate predictions. We also propose a Semantic Sorting and NMS module to remove these duplicates based on a pixel occupancy matching scheme. Experiments show that modern segmentation networks have significant gains in AP, but also contain a considerable amount of duplicates. Our Semantic Sorting and NMS can be added as a plug-and-play module to mitigate hedged predictions and preserve AP.

Many historical map sheets are publicly available for studies that require long-term historical geographic data. The cartographic design of these maps includes a combination of map symbols and text labels. Automatically reading text labels from map images could greatly speed up the map interpretation and helps generate rich metadata describing the map content. Many text detection algorithms have been proposed to locate text regions in map images automatically, but most of the algorithms are trained on out-ofdomain datasets (e.g., scenic images). Training data determines the quality of machine learning models, and manually annotating text regions in map images is labor-extensive and time-consuming. On the other hand, existing geographic data sources, such as Open- StreetMap (OSM), contain machine-readable map layers, which allow us to separate out the text layer and obtain text label annotations easily. However, the cartographic styles between OSM map tiles and historical maps are significantly different. This paper proposes a method to automatically generate an unlimited amount of annotated historical map images for training text detection models. We use a style transfer model to convert contemporary map images into historical style and place text labels upon them. We show that the state-of-the-art text detection models (e.g., PSENet) can benefit from the synthetic historical maps and achieve significant improvement for historical map text detection.

Recent studies have revealed a number of pathologies of neural machine translation (NMT) systems. Hypotheses explaining these mostly suggest there is something fundamentally wrong with NMT as a model or its training algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Most of this evidence was gathered using maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding, a decision rule aimed at identifying the highest-scoring translation, i.e. the mode. We argue that the evidence corroborates the inadequacy of MAP decoding more than casts doubt on the model and its training algorithm. In this work, we show that translation distributions do reproduce various statistics of the data well, but that beam search strays from such statistics. We show that some of the known pathologies and biases of NMT are due to MAP decoding and not to NMT's statistical assumptions nor MLE. In particular, we show that the most likely translations under the model accumulate so little probability mass that the mode can be considered essentially arbitrary. We therefore advocate for the use of decision rules that take into account the translation distribution holistically. We show that an approximation to minimum Bayes risk decoding gives competitive results confirming that NMT models do capture important aspects of translation well in expectation.

We present a new dataset, Functional Map of the World (fMoW), which aims to inspire the development of machine learning models capable of predicting the functional purpose of buildings and land use from temporal sequences of satellite images and a rich set of metadata features. The metadata provided with each image enables reasoning about location, time, sun angles, physical sizes, and other features when making predictions about objects in the image. Our dataset consists of over 1 million images from over 200 countries. For each image, we provide at least one bounding box annotation containing one of 63 categories, including a "false detection" category. We present an analysis of the dataset along with baseline approaches that reason about metadata and temporal views. Our data, code, and pretrained models have been made publicly available.

Maps are fundamental medium to visualize and represent the real word in a simple and 16 philosophical way. The emergence of the 3rd wave information has made a proportion of maps are available to be generated ubiquitously, which would significantly enrich the dimensions and perspectives to understand the characteristics of the real world. However, a majority of map dataset have never been discovered, acquired and effectively used, and the map data used in many applications might not be completely fitted for the authentic demands of these applications. This challenge is emerged due to the lack of numerous well-labelled benchmark datasets for implementing the deep learning approaches into identifying complicated map content. Thus, we develop a large-scale benchmark dataset that includes well-labelled dataset for map text annotation recognition, map scene classification, map super-resolution reconstruction, and map style transferring. Furthermore, these well-labelled datasets would facilitate the state-of-the-art machine intelligence technologies to conduct map feature detection, map pattern recognition and map content retrieval. We hope our efforts would be useful for AI-enhanced cartographical applications.

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an uncertainty estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable reliable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.

Recent advancements in foundation models have enhanced AI systems' capabilities in autonomous tool usage and reasoning. However, their ability in location or map-based reasoning - which improves daily life by optimizing navigation, facilitating resource discovery, and streamlining logistics - has not been systematically studied. To bridge this gap, we introduce MapEval, a benchmark designed to assess diverse and complex map-based user queries with geo-spatial reasoning. MapEval features three task types (textual, API-based, and visual) that require collecting world information via map tools, processing heterogeneous geo-spatial contexts (e.g., named entities, travel distances, user reviews or ratings, images), and compositional reasoning, which all state-of-the-art foundation models find challenging. Comprising 700 unique multiple-choice questions about locations across 180 cities and 54 countries, MapEval evaluates foundation models' ability to handle spatial relationships, map infographics, travel planning, and navigation challenges. Using MapEval, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of 28 prominent foundation models. While no single model excelled across all tasks, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, GPT-4o, and Gemini-1.5-Pro achieved competitive performance overall. However, substantial performance gaps emerged, particularly in MapEval, where agents with Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperformed GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5-Pro by 16% and 21%, respectively, and the gaps became even more amplified when compared to open-source LLMs. Our detailed analyses provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of current models, though all models still fall short of human performance by more than 20% on average, struggling with complex map images and rigorous geo-spatial reasoning. This gap highlights MapEval's critical role in advancing general-purpose foundation models with stronger geo-spatial understanding.

Learning-based multi-view stereo (MVS) methods deal with predicting accurate depth maps to achieve an accurate and complete 3D representation. Despite the excellent performance, existing methods ignore the fact that a suitable depth geometry is also critical in MVS. In this paper, we demonstrate that different depth geometries have significant performance gaps, even using the same depth prediction error. Therefore, we introduce an ideal depth geometry composed of Saddle-Shaped Cells, whose predicted depth map oscillates upward and downward around the ground-truth surface, rather than maintaining a continuous and smooth depth plane. To achieve it, we develop a coarse-to-fine framework called Dual-MVSNet (DMVSNet), which can produce an oscillating depth plane. Technically, we predict two depth values for each pixel (Dual-Depth), and propose a novel loss function and a checkerboard-shaped selecting strategy to constrain the predicted depth geometry. Compared to existing methods,DMVSNet achieves a high rank on the DTU benchmark and obtains the top performance on challenging scenes of Tanks and Temples, demonstrating its strong performance and generalization ability. Our method also points to a new research direction for considering depth geometry in MVS.

In soccer, contextual player performance metrics are invaluable to coaches. For example, the ability to perform under pressure during matches distinguishes the elite from the average. Appropriate pressure metric enables teams to assess players' performance accurately under pressure and design targeted training scenarios to address their weaknesses. The primary objective of this paper is to leverage both tracking and event data and game footage to capture the pressure experienced by the possession team in a soccer game scene. We propose a player pressure map to represent a given game scene, which lowers the dimension of raw data and still contains rich contextual information. Not only does it serve as an effective tool for visualizing and evaluating the pressure on the team and each individual, but it can also be utilized as a backbone for accessing players' performance. Overall, our model provides coaches and analysts with a deeper understanding of players' performance under pressure so that they make data-oriented tactical decisions.

Guided depth map super-resolution (GDSR), as a hot topic in multi-modal image processing, aims to upsample low-resolution (LR) depth maps with additional information involved in high-resolution (HR) RGB images from the same scene. The critical step of this task is to effectively extract domain-shared and domain-private RGB/depth features. In addition, three detailed issues, namely blurry edges, noisy surfaces, and over-transferred RGB texture, need to be addressed. In this paper, we propose the Spherical Space feature Decomposition Network (SSDNet) to solve the above issues. To better model cross-modality features, Restormer block-based RGB/depth encoders are employed for extracting local-global features. Then, the extracted features are mapped to the spherical space to complete the separation of private features and the alignment of shared features. Shared features of RGB are fused with the depth features to complete the GDSR task. Subsequently, a spherical contrast refinement (SCR) module is proposed to further address the detail issues. Patches that are classified according to imperfect categories are input into the SCR module, where the patch features are pulled closer to the ground truth and pushed away from the corresponding imperfect samples in the spherical feature space via contrastive learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can achieve state-of-the-art results on four test datasets, as well as successfully generalize to real-world scenes. The code is available at https://github.com/Zhaozixiang1228/GDSR-SSDNet.

Despite excellent performance in image generation, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are notorious for its requirements of enormous storage and intensive computation. As an awesome ''performance maker'', knowledge distillation is demonstrated to be particularly efficacious in exploring low-priced GANs. In this paper, we investigate the irreplaceability of teacher discriminator and present an inventive discriminator-cooperated distillation, abbreviated as DCD, towards refining better feature maps from the generator. In contrast to conventional pixel-to-pixel match methods in feature map distillation, our DCD utilizes teacher discriminator as a transformation to drive intermediate results of the student generator to be perceptually close to corresponding outputs of the teacher generator. Furthermore, in order to mitigate mode collapse in GAN compression, we construct a collaborative adversarial training paradigm where the teacher discriminator is from scratch established to co-train with student generator in company with our DCD. Our DCD shows superior results compared with existing GAN compression methods. For instance, after reducing over 40x MACs and 80x parameters of CycleGAN, we well decrease FID metric from 61.53 to 48.24 while the current SoTA method merely has 51.92. This work's source code has been made accessible at https://github.com/poopit/DCD-official.

In this paper, we introduce Mask2Map, a novel end-to-end online HD map construction method designed for autonomous driving applications. Our approach focuses on predicting the class and ordered point set of map instances within a scene, represented in the bird's eye view (BEV). Mask2Map consists of two primary components: the Instance-Level Mask Prediction Network (IMPNet) and the Mask-Driven Map Prediction Network (MMPNet). IMPNet generates Mask-Aware Queries and BEV Segmentation Masks to capture comprehensive semantic information globally. Subsequently, MMPNet enhances these query features using local contextual information through two submodules: the Positional Query Generator (PQG) and the Geometric Feature Extractor (GFE). PQG extracts instance-level positional queries by embedding BEV positional information into Mask-Aware Queries, while GFE utilizes BEV Segmentation Masks to generate point-level geometric features. However, we observed limited performance in Mask2Map due to inter-network inconsistency stemming from different predictions to Ground Truth (GT) matching between IMPNet and MMPNet. To tackle this challenge, we propose the Inter-network Denoising Training method, which guides the model to denoise the output affected by both noisy GT queries and perturbed GT Segmentation Masks. Our evaluation conducted on nuScenes and Argoverse2 benchmarks demonstrates that Mask2Map achieves remarkable performance improvements over previous state-of-the-art methods, with gains of 10.1% mAP and 4.1 mAP, respectively. Our code can be found at https://github.com/SehwanChoi0307/Mask2Map.

Satellite imagery has emerged as an important tool to analyse demographic, health, and development indicators. While various deep learning models have been built for these tasks, each is specific to a particular problem, with few standard benchmarks available. We propose a new dataset pairing satellite imagery and high-quality survey data on child poverty to benchmark satellite feature representations. Our dataset consists of 33,608 images, each 10 km times 10 km, from 19 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa in the time period 1997-2022. As defined by UNICEF, multidimensional child poverty covers six dimensions and it can be calculated from the face-to-face Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program . As part of the benchmark, we test spatial as well as temporal generalization, by testing on unseen locations, and on data after the training years. Using our dataset we benchmark multiple models, from low-level satellite imagery models such as MOSAIKS , to deep learning foundation models, which include both generic vision models such as Self-Distillation with no Labels (DINOv2) models and specific satellite imagery models such as SatMAE. We provide open source code for building the satellite dataset, obtaining ground truth data from DHS and running various models assessed in our work.

Recent advancements in visual localization and mapping have demonstrated considerable success in integrating point and line features. However, expanding the localization framework to include additional mapping components frequently results in increased demand for memory and computational resources dedicated to matching tasks. In this study, we show how a lightweight neural network can learn to represent both 3D point and line features, and exhibit leading pose accuracy by harnessing the power of multiple learned mappings. Specifically, we utilize a single transformer block to encode line features, effectively transforming them into distinctive point-like descriptors. Subsequently, we treat these point and line descriptor sets as distinct yet interconnected feature sets. Through the integration of self- and cross-attention within several graph layers, our method effectively refines each feature before regressing 3D maps using two simple MLPs. In comprehensive experiments, our indoor localization findings surpass those of Hloc and Limap across both point-based and line-assisted configurations. Moreover, in outdoor scenarios, our method secures a significant lead, marking the most considerable enhancement over state-of-the-art learning-based methodologies. The source code and demo videos of this work are publicly available at: https://thpjp.github.io/pl2map/

Vectorized high-definition map online construction has garnered considerable attention in the field of autonomous driving research. Most existing approaches model changeable map elements using a fixed number of points, or predict local maps in a two-stage autoregressive manner, which may miss essential details and lead to error accumulation. Towards precise map element learning, we propose a simple yet effective architecture named PivotNet, which adopts unified pivot-based map representations and is formulated as a direct set prediction paradigm. Concretely, we first propose a novel point-to-line mask module to encode both the subordinate and geometrical point-line priors in the network. Then, a well-designed pivot dynamic matching module is proposed to model the topology in dynamic point sequences by introducing the concept of sequence matching. Furthermore, to supervise the position and topology of the vectorized point predictions, we propose a dynamic vectorized sequence loss. Extensive experiments and ablations show that PivotNet is remarkably superior to other SOTAs by 5.9 mAP at least. The code will be available soon.

While impressive progress has recently been made in image-oriented facial attribute translation, shape-oriented 3D facial attribute translation remains an unsolved issue. This is primarily limited by the lack of 3D generative models and ineffective usage of 3D facial data. We propose a learning framework for 3D facial attribute translation to relieve these limitations. Firstly, we customize a novel geometric map for 3D shape representation and embed it in an end-to-end generative adversarial network. The geometric map represents 3D shapes symmetrically on a square image grid, while preserving the neighboring relationship of 3D vertices in a local least-square sense. This enables effective learning for the latent representation of data with different attributes. Secondly, we employ a unified and unpaired learning framework for multi-domain attribute translation. It not only makes effective usage of data correlation from multiple domains, but also mitigates the constraint for hardly accessible paired data. Finally, we propose a hierarchical architecture for the discriminator to guarantee robust results against both global and local artifacts. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the advantage of the proposed framework over the state-of-the-art in generating high-fidelity facial shapes. Given an input 3D facial shape, the proposed framework is able to synthesize novel shapes of different attributes, which covers some downstream applications, such as expression transfer, gender translation, and aging. Code at https://github.com/NaughtyZZ/3D_facial_shape_attribute_translation_ssgmap.

We introduce a learning-based depth map fusion framework that accepts a set of depth and confidence maps generated by a Multi-View Stereo (MVS) algorithm as input and improves them. This is accomplished by integrating volumetric visibility constraints that encode long-range surface relationships across different views into an end-to-end trainable architecture. We also introduce a depth search window estimation sub-network trained jointly with the larger fusion sub-network to reduce the depth hypothesis search space along each ray. Our method learns to model depth consensus and violations of visibility constraints directly from the data; effectively removing the necessity of fine-tuning fusion parameters. Extensive experiments on MVS datasets show substantial improvements in the accuracy of the output fused depth and confidence maps.

Vision-and-language navigation (VLN) enables the agent to navigate to a remote location following the natural language instruction in 3D environments. To represent the previously visited environment, most approaches for VLN implement memory using recurrent states, topological maps, or top-down semantic maps. In contrast to these approaches, we build the top-down egocentric and dynamically growing Grid Memory Map (i.e., GridMM) to structure the visited environment. From a global perspective, historical observations are projected into a unified grid map in a top-down view, which can better represent the spatial relations of the environment. From a local perspective, we further propose an instruction relevance aggregation method to capture fine-grained visual clues in each grid region. Extensive experiments are conducted on both the REVERIE, R2R, SOON datasets in the discrete environments, and the R2R-CE dataset in the continuous environments, showing the superiority of our proposed method.

Deep neural networks have been widely used in many critical applications, such as autonomous vehicles and medical diagnosis. However, their security is threatened by backdoor attacks, which are achieved by adding artificial patterns to specific training data. Existing defense strategies primarily focus on using reverse engineering to reproduce the backdoor trigger generated by attackers and subsequently repair the DNN model by adding the trigger into inputs and fine-tuning the model with ground-truth labels. However, once the trigger generated by the attackers is complex and invisible, the defender cannot reproduce the trigger successfully then the DNN model will not be repaired, as the trigger is not effectively removed. In this work, we propose Adversarial Feature Map Pruning for Backdoor (FMP) to mitigate backdoor from the DNN. Unlike existing defense strategies, which focus on reproducing backdoor triggers, FMP attempts to prune backdoor feature maps, which are trained to extract backdoor information from inputs. After pruning these backdoor feature maps, FMP will fine-tune the model with a secure subset of training data. Our experiments demonstrate that, compared to existing defense strategies, FMP can effectively reduce the Attack Success Rate (ASR) even against the most complex and invisible attack triggers (e.g., FMP decreases the ASR to 2.86\% in CIFAR10, which is 19.2\% to 65.41\% lower than baselines). Second, unlike conventional defense methods that tend to exhibit low robust accuracy (that is, the accuracy of the model on poisoned data), FMP achieves a higher RA, indicating its superiority in maintaining model performance while mitigating the effects of backdoor attacks (e.g., FMP obtains 87.40\% RA in CIFAR10). Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/retsuh-bqw/FMP.

Deep ensembles are capable of achieving state-of-the-art results in classification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. However, their effectiveness is limited due to the homogeneity of learned patterns within ensembles. To overcome this issue, our study introduces Saliency Diversified Deep Ensemble (SDDE), a novel approach that promotes diversity among ensemble members by leveraging saliency maps. Through incorporating saliency map diversification, our method outperforms conventional ensemble techniques and improves calibration in multiple classification and OOD detection tasks. In particular, the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art OOD detection quality, calibration, and accuracy on multiple benchmarks, including CIFAR10/100 and large-scale ImageNet datasets.

Although purely transformer-based architectures showed promising performance in many computer vision tasks, many hybrid models consisting of CNN and transformer blocks are introduced to fit more specialized tasks. Nevertheless, despite the performance gain of both pure and hybrid transformer-based architectures compared to CNNs in medical imaging segmentation, their high training cost and complexity make it challenging to use them in real scenarios. In this work, we propose simple architectures based on purely convolutional layers, and show that by just taking advantage of the attention map visualizations obtained from a self-supervised pretrained vision transformer network (e.g., DINO) one can outperform complex transformer-based networks with much less computation costs. The proposed architecture is composed of two encoder branches with the original image as input in one branch and the attention map visualizations of the same image from multiple self-attention heads from a pre-trained DINO model (as multiple channels) in the other branch. The results of our experiments on two publicly available medical imaging datasets show that the proposed pipeline outperforms U-Net and the state-of-the-art medical image segmentation models.

Large-scale pre-training has shown promising results on the vision-and-language navigation (VLN) task. However, most existing pre-training methods employ discrete panoramas to learn visual-textual associations. This requires the model to implicitly correlate incomplete, duplicate observations within the panoramas, which may impair an agent's spatial understanding. Thus, we propose a new map-based pre-training paradigm that is spatial-aware for use in VLN. Concretely, we build a local metric map to explicitly aggregate incomplete observations and remove duplicates, while modeling navigation dependency in a global topological map. This hybrid design can balance the demand of VLN for both short-term reasoning and long-term planning. Then, based on the hybrid map, we devise a pre-training framework to learn a multimodal map representation, which enhances spatial-aware cross-modal reasoning thereby facilitating the language-guided navigation goal. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the map-based pre-training route for VLN, and the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art on four VLN benchmarks.

Deep neural networks are ubiquitous due to the ease of developing models and their influence on other domains. At the heart of this progress is convolutional neural networks (CNNs) that are capable of learning representations or features given a set of data. Making sense of such complex models (i.e., millions of parameters and hundreds of layers) remains challenging for developers as well as the end-users. This is partially due to the lack of tools or interfaces capable of providing interpretability and transparency. A growing body of literature, for example, class activation map (CAM), focuses on making sense of what a model learns from the data or why it behaves poorly in a given task. This paper builds on previous ideas to cope with the increasing demand for interpretable, robust, and transparent models. Our approach provides a simpler and intuitive (or familiar) way of generating CAM. The proposed Eigen-CAM computes and visualizes the principle components of the learned features/representations from the convolutional layers. Empirical studies were performed to compare the Eigen-CAM with the state-of-the-art methods (such as Grad-CAM, Grad-CAM++, CNN-fixations) by evaluating on benchmark datasets such as weakly-supervised localization and localizing objects in the presence of adversarial noise. Eigen-CAM was found to be robust against classification errors made by fully connected layers in CNNs, does not rely on the backpropagation of gradients, class relevance score, maximum activation locations, or any other form of weighting features. In addition, it works with all CNN models without the need to modify layers or retrain models. Empirical results show up to 12% improvement over the best method among the methods compared on weakly supervised object localization.

Every second greater than 10^{25} antineutrinos radiate to space from Earth, shining like a faint antineutrino star. Underground antineutrino detectors have revealed the rapidly decaying fission products inside nuclear reactors, verified the long-lived radioactivity inside our planet, and informed sensitive experiments for probing fundamental physics. Mapping the anisotropic antineutrino flux and energy spectrum advance geoscience by defining the amount and distribution of radioactive power within Earth while critically evaluating competing compositional models of the planet. We present the Antineutrino Global Map 2015 (AGM2015), an experimentally informed model of Earth's surface antineutrino flux over the 0 to 11 MeV energy spectrum, along with an assessment of systematic errors. The open source AGM2015 provides fundamental predictions for experiments, assists in strategic detector placement to determine neutrino mass hierarchy, and aids in identifying undeclared nuclear reactors. We use cosmochemically and seismologically informed models of the radiogenic lithosphere/mantle combined with the estimated antineutrino flux, as measured by KamLAND and Borexino, to determine the Earth's total antineutrino luminosity at 3.4^{+2.3}_{-2.2} times 10^{25} nu_e. We find a dominant flux of geo-neutrinos, predict sub-equal crust and mantle contributions, with sim1% of the total flux from man-made nuclear reactors.

Mapping and navigation services like Google Maps, Apple Maps, Openstreet Maps, are essential for accessing various location-based data, yet they often struggle to handle natural language geospatial queries. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise in question answering (QA), but creating reliable geospatial QA datasets from map services remains challenging. We introduce MapQaTor, a web application that streamlines the creation of reproducible, traceable map-based QA datasets. With its plug-and-play architecture, MapQaTor enables seamless integration with any maps API, allowing users to gather and visualize data from diverse sources with minimal setup. By caching API responses, the platform ensures consistent ground truth, enhancing the reliability of the data even as real-world information evolves. MapQaTor centralizes data retrieval, annotation, and visualization within a single platform, offering a unique opportunity to evaluate the current state of LLM-based geospatial reasoning while advancing their capabilities for improved geospatial understanding. Evaluation metrics show that, MapQaTor speeds up the annotation process by at least 30 times compared to manual methods, underscoring its potential for developing geospatial resources, such as complex map reasoning datasets. The website is live at: https://mapqator.github.io/ and a demo video is available at: https://youtu.be/7_aV9Wmhs6Q.

Recently, diffusion models have made significant strides in synthesizing realistic 2D human images based on provided text prompts. Building upon this, researchers have extended 2D text-to-image diffusion models into the 3D domain for generating human textures (UV Maps). However, some important problems about UV Map Generative models are still not solved, i.e., how to generate personalized texture maps for any given face image, and how to define and evaluate the quality of these generated texture maps. To solve the above problems, we introduce a novel method, UVMap-ID, which is a controllable and personalized UV Map generative model. Unlike traditional large-scale training methods in 2D, we propose to fine-tune a pre-trained text-to-image diffusion model which is integrated with a face fusion module for achieving ID-driven customized generation. To support the finetuning strategy, we introduce a small-scale attribute-balanced training dataset, including high-quality textures with labeled text and Face ID. Additionally, we introduce some metrics to evaluate the multiple aspects of the textures. Finally, both quantitative and qualitative analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in controllable and personalized UV Map generation. Code is publicly available via https://github.com/twowwj/UVMap-ID.

Text-to-image diffusion models have shown great success in generating high-quality text-guided images. Yet, these models may still fail to semantically align generated images with the provided text prompts, leading to problems like incorrect attribute binding and/or catastrophic object neglect. Given the pervasive object-oriented structure underlying text prompts, we introduce a novel object-conditioned Energy-Based Attention Map Alignment (EBAMA) method to address the aforementioned problems. We show that an object-centric attribute binding loss naturally emerges by approximately maximizing the log-likelihood of a z-parameterized energy-based model with the help of the negative sampling technique. We further propose an object-centric intensity regularizer to prevent excessive shifts of objects attention towards their attributes. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments, including human evaluation, on several challenging benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of our method over previous strong counterparts. With better aligned attention maps, our approach shows great promise in further enhancing the text-controlled image editing ability of diffusion models.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great potential in robotic applications by providing essential general knowledge for situations that can not be pre-programmed beforehand. Generally speaking, mobile robots need to understand maps to execute tasks such as localization or navigation. In this letter, we address the problem of enabling LLMs to comprehend Area Graph, a text-based map representation, in order to enhance their applicability in the field of mobile robotics. Area Graph is a hierarchical, topometric semantic map representation utilizing polygons to demark areas such as rooms, corridors or buildings. In contrast to commonly used map representations, such as occupancy grid maps or point clouds, osmAG (Area Graph in OpensStreetMap format) is stored in a XML textual format naturally readable by LLMs. Furthermore, conventional robotic algorithms such as localization and path planning are compatible with osmAG, facilitating this map representation comprehensible by LLMs, traditional robotic algorithms and humans. Our experiments show that with a proper map representation, LLMs possess the capability to understand maps and answer queries based on that understanding. Following simple fine-tuning of LLaMA2 models, it surpassed ChatGPT-3.5 in tasks involving topology and hierarchy understanding. Our dataset, dataset generation code, fine-tuned LoRA adapters can be accessed at https://github.com/xiefujing/LLM-osmAG-Comprehension.

The pre-trained multi-lingual XLSR model generalizes well for language identification after fine-tuning on unseen languages. However, the performance significantly degrades when the languages are not very distinct from each other, for example, in the case of dialects. Low resource dialect classification remains a challenging problem to solve. We present a new data augmentation method that leverages model training dynamics of individual data points to improve sampling for latent mixup. The method works well in low-resource settings where generalization is paramount. Our datamaps-based mixup technique, which we call Map-Mix improves weighted F1 scores by 2% compared to the random mixup baseline and results in a significantly well-calibrated model. The code for our method is open sourced on https://github.com/skit-ai/Map-Mix.

LiDAR mapping is important yet challenging in self-driving and mobile robotics. To tackle such a global point cloud registration problem, DeepMapping converts the complex map estimation into a self-supervised training of simple deep networks. Despite its broad convergence range on small datasets, DeepMapping still cannot produce satisfactory results on large-scale datasets with thousands of frames. This is due to the lack of loop closures and exact cross-frame point correspondences, and the slow convergence of its global localization network. We propose DeepMapping2 by adding two novel techniques to address these issues: (1) organization of training batch based on map topology from loop closing, and (2) self-supervised local-to-global point consistency loss leveraging pairwise registration. Our experiments and ablation studies on public datasets (KITTI, NCLT, and Nebula) demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Autonomous driving systems require High-Definition (HD) semantic maps to navigate around urban roads. Existing solutions approach the semantic mapping problem by offline manual annotation, which suffers from serious scalability issues. Recent learning-based methods produce dense rasterized segmentation predictions to construct maps. However, these predictions do not include instance information of individual map elements and require heuristic post-processing to obtain vectorized maps. To tackle these challenges, we introduce an end-to-end vectorized HD map learning pipeline, termed VectorMapNet. VectorMapNet takes onboard sensor observations and predicts a sparse set of polylines in the bird's-eye view. This pipeline can explicitly model the spatial relation between map elements and generate vectorized maps that are friendly to downstream autonomous driving tasks. Extensive experiments show that VectorMapNet achieve strong map learning performance on both nuScenes and Argoverse2 dataset, surpassing previous state-of-the-art methods by 14.2 mAP and 14.6mAP. Qualitatively, VectorMapNet is capable of generating comprehensive maps and capturing fine-grained details of road geometry. To the best of our knowledge, VectorMapNet is the first work designed towards end-to-end vectorized map learning from onboard observations. Our project website is available at https://tsinghua-mars-lab.github.io/vectormapnet/.

Despite improvements in performances on different natural language generation tasks, deep neural models are prone to hallucinating facts that are incorrect or nonexistent. Different hypotheses are proposed and examined separately for different tasks, but no systematic explanations are available across these tasks. In this study, we draw connections between hallucinations and predictive uncertainty in conditional language generation. We investigate their relationship in both image captioning and data-to-text generation and propose a simple extension to beam search to reduce hallucination. Our analysis shows that higher predictive uncertainty corresponds to a higher chance of hallucination. Epistemic uncertainty is more indicative of hallucination than aleatoric or total uncertainties. It helps to achieve better results of trading performance in standard metric for less hallucination with the proposed beam search variant.

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

Dense simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is pivotal for embodied scene understanding. Recent work has shown that 3D Gaussians enable high-quality reconstruction and real-time rendering of scenes using multiple posed cameras. In this light, we show for the first time that representing a scene by 3D Gaussians can enable dense SLAM using a single unposed monocular RGB-D camera. Our method, SplaTAM, addresses the limitations of prior radiance field-based representations, including fast rendering and optimization, the ability to determine if areas have been previously mapped, and structured map expansion by adding more Gaussians. We employ an online tracking and mapping pipeline while tailoring it to specifically use an underlying Gaussian representation and silhouette-guided optimization via differentiable rendering. Extensive experiments show that SplaTAM achieves up to 2X state-of-the-art performance in camera pose estimation, map construction, and novel-view synthesis, demonstrating its superiority over existing approaches, while allowing real-time rendering of a high-resolution dense 3D map.

We present Paint-it, a text-driven high-fidelity texture map synthesis method for 3D meshes via neural re-parameterized texture optimization. Paint-it synthesizes texture maps from a text description by synthesis-through-optimization, exploiting the Score-Distillation Sampling (SDS). We observe that directly applying SDS yields undesirable texture quality due to its noisy gradients. We reveal the importance of texture parameterization when using SDS. Specifically, we propose Deep Convolutional Physically-Based Rendering (DC-PBR) parameterization, which re-parameterizes the physically-based rendering (PBR) texture maps with randomly initialized convolution-based neural kernels, instead of a standard pixel-based parameterization. We show that DC-PBR inherently schedules the optimization curriculum according to texture frequency and naturally filters out the noisy signals from SDS. In experiments, Paint-it obtains remarkable quality PBR texture maps within 15 min., given only a text description. We demonstrate the generalizability and practicality of Paint-it by synthesizing high-quality texture maps for large-scale mesh datasets and showing test-time applications such as relighting and material control using a popular graphics engine. Project page: https://kim-youwang.github.io/paint-it

Motivated by the superior performance of image diffusion models, more and more researchers strive to extend these models to the text-based video editing task. Nevertheless, current video editing tasks mainly suffer from the dilemma between the high fine-tuning cost and the limited generation capacity. Compared with images, we conjecture that videos necessitate more constraints to preserve the temporal consistency during editing. Towards this end, we propose EVE, a robust and efficient zero-shot video editing method. Under the guidance of depth maps and temporal consistency constraints, EVE derives satisfactory video editing results with an affordable computational and time cost. Moreover, recognizing the absence of a publicly available video editing dataset for fair comparisons, we construct a new benchmark ZVE-50 dataset. Through comprehensive experimentation, we validate that EVE could achieve a satisfactory trade-off between performance and efficiency. We will release our dataset and codebase to facilitate future researchers.

Multi-Task Learning (MTL) is a powerful technique that has gained popularity due to its performance improvement over traditional Single-Task Learning (STL). However, MTL is often challenging because there is an exponential number of possible task groupings, which can make it difficult to choose the best one, and some groupings might produce performance degradation due to negative interference between tasks. Furthermore, existing solutions are severely suffering from scalability issues, limiting any practical application. In our paper, we propose a new data-driven method that addresses these challenges and provides a scalable and modular solution for classification task grouping based on hand-crafted features, specifically Data Maps, which capture the training behavior for each classification task during the MTL training. We experiment with the method demonstrating its effectiveness, even on an unprecedented number of tasks (up to 100).

Text-conditioned image generation models often generate incorrect associations between entities and their visual attributes. This reflects an impaired mapping between linguistic binding of entities and modifiers in the prompt and visual binding of the corresponding elements in the generated image. As one notable example, a query like ``a pink sunflower and a yellow flamingo'' may incorrectly produce an image of a yellow sunflower and a pink flamingo. To remedy this issue, we propose SynGen, an approach which first syntactically analyses the prompt to identify entities and their modifiers, and then uses a novel loss function that encourages the cross-attention maps to agree with the linguistic binding reflected by the syntax. Specifically, we encourage large overlap between attention maps of entities and their modifiers, and small overlap with other entities and modifier words. The loss is optimized during inference, without retraining or fine-tuning the model. Human evaluation on three datasets, including one new and challenging set, demonstrate significant improvements of SynGen compared with current state of the art methods. This work highlights how making use of sentence structure during inference can efficiently and substantially improve the faithfulness of text-to-image generation.

Parse graphs of the human body can be obtained in the human brain to help humans complete the human pose estimation (HPE). It contains a hierarchical structure, like a tree structure, and context relations among nodes. Many researchers pre-design the parse graph of body structure, and then design framework for HPE. However, these frameworks are difficulty adapting when encountering situations that differ from the preset human structure. Different from them, we regard the feature map as a whole, similarly to human body, so the feature map can be optimized based on parse graphs and each node feature is learned implicitly instead of explicitly, which means it can flexibly respond to different human body structure. In this paper, we design the Refinement Module based on the Parse Graph of feature map (RMPG), which includes two stages: top-down decomposition and bottom-up combination. In the top-down decomposition stage, the feature map is decomposed into multiple sub-feature maps along the channel and their context relations are calculated to obtain their respective context information. In the bottom-up combination stage, the sub-feature maps and their context information are combined to obtain refined sub-feature maps, and then these refined sub-feature maps are concatenated to obtain the refined feature map. Additionally ,we design a top-down framework by using multiple RMPG modules for HPE, some of which are supervised to obtain context relations among body parts. Our framework achieves excellent results on the COCO keypoint detection, CrowdPose and MPII human pose datasets. More importantly, our experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of RMPG on different methods, including SimpleBaselines, Hourglass, and ViTPose.

Perception systems in modern autonomous driving vehicles typically take inputs from complementary multi-modal sensors, e.g., LiDAR and cameras. However, in real-world applications, sensor corruptions and failures lead to inferior performances, thus compromising autonomous safety. In this paper, we propose a robust framework, called MetaBEV, to address extreme real-world environments involving overall six sensor corruptions and two extreme sensor-missing situations. In MetaBEV, signals from multiple sensors are first processed by modal-specific encoders. Subsequently, a set of dense BEV queries are initialized, termed meta-BEV. These queries are then processed iteratively by a BEV-Evolving decoder, which selectively aggregates deep features from either LiDAR, cameras, or both modalities. The updated BEV representations are further leveraged for multiple 3D prediction tasks. Additionally, we introduce a new M2oE structure to alleviate the performance drop on distinct tasks in multi-task joint learning. Finally, MetaBEV is evaluated on the nuScenes dataset with 3D object detection and BEV map segmentation tasks. Experiments show MetaBEV outperforms prior arts by a large margin on both full and corrupted modalities. For instance, when the LiDAR signal is missing, MetaBEV improves 35.5% detection NDS and 17.7% segmentation mIoU upon the vanilla BEVFusion model; and when the camera signal is absent, MetaBEV still achieves 69.2% NDS and 53.7% mIoU, which is even higher than previous works that perform on full-modalities. Moreover, MetaBEV performs fairly against previous methods in both canonical perception and multi-task learning settings, refreshing state-of-the-art nuScenes BEV map segmentation with 70.4% mIoU.

Given that Transformers are ubiquitous in wide tasks, interpreting their internals is a pivotal issue. Still, their particular components, feed-forward (FF) blocks, have typically been less analyzed despite their substantial parameter amounts. We analyze the input contextualization effects of FF blocks by rendering them in the attention maps as a human-friendly visualization scheme. Our experiments with both masked- and causal-language models reveal that FF networks modify the input contextualization to emphasize specific types of linguistic compositions. In addition, FF and its surrounding components tend to cancel out each other's effects, suggesting potential redundancy in the processing of the Transformer layer.

This paper presents a case study on the design, administration, post-processing, and evaluation of surveys on large language models (LLMs). It comprises two components: (1) A statistical method for eliciting beliefs encoded in LLMs. We introduce statistical measures and evaluation metrics that quantify the probability of an LLM "making a choice", the associated uncertainty, and the consistency of that choice. (2) We apply this method to study what moral beliefs are encoded in different LLMs, especially in ambiguous cases where the right choice is not obvious. We design a large-scale survey comprising 680 high-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I tell a white lie?") and 687 low-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I stop for a pedestrian on the road?"). Each scenario includes a description, two possible actions, and auxiliary labels indicating violated rules (e.g., "do not kill"). We administer the survey to 28 open- and closed-source LLMs. We find that (a) in unambiguous scenarios, most models "choose" actions that align with commonsense. In ambiguous cases, most models express uncertainty. (b) Some models are uncertain about choosing the commonsense action because their responses are sensitive to the question-wording. (c) Some models reflect clear preferences in ambiguous scenarios. Specifically, closed-source models tend to agree with each other.

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

This paper claims that machine learning (ML) largely overlooks an important facet of general intelligence: robustness to a qualitatively unknown future in an open world. Such robustness relates to Knightian uncertainty (KU) in economics, i.e. uncertainty that cannot be quantified, which is excluded from consideration in ML's key formalisms. This paper aims to identify this blind spot, argue its importance, and catalyze research into addressing it, which we believe is necessary to create truly robust open-world AI. To help illuminate the blind spot, we contrast one area of ML, reinforcement learning (RL), with the process of biological evolution. Despite staggering ongoing progress, RL still struggles in open-world situations, often failing under unforeseen situations. For example, the idea of zero-shot transferring a self-driving car policy trained only in the US to the UK currently seems exceedingly ambitious. In dramatic contrast, biological evolution routinely produces agents that thrive within an open world, sometimes even to situations that are remarkably out-of-distribution (e.g. invasive species; or humans, who do undertake such zero-shot international driving). Interestingly, evolution achieves such robustness without explicit theory, formalisms, or mathematical gradients. We explore the assumptions underlying RL's typical formalisms, showing how they limit RL's engagement with the unknown unknowns characteristic of an ever-changing complex world. Further, we identify mechanisms through which evolutionary processes foster robustness to novel and unpredictable challenges, and discuss potential pathways to algorithmically embody them. The conclusion is that the intriguing remaining fragility of ML may result from blind spots in its formalisms, and that significant gains may result from direct confrontation with the challenge of KU.

Transformer-based speech self-supervised learning (SSL) models, such as HuBERT, show surprising performance in various speech processing tasks. However, huge number of parameters in speech SSL models necessitate the compression to a more compact model for wider usage in academia or small companies. In this study, we suggest to reuse attention maps across the Transformer layers, so as to remove key and query parameters while retaining the number of layers. Furthermore, we propose a novel masking distillation strategy to improve the student model's speech representation quality. We extend the distillation loss to utilize both masked and unmasked speech frames to fully leverage the teacher model's high-quality representation. Our universal compression strategy yields the student model that achieves phoneme error rate (PER) of 7.72% and word error rate (WER) of 9.96% on the SUPERB benchmark.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

The quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rates are calculated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model on in situ airborne measurement data of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The results show that diffusional growth rates varies in the range of 0.00025 - 0.0015(cm/s). The generic problem of the overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related with the choice of cm in the model. It is also shown from DNS experiment using Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model that the relative dispersion is constrained with average values in the range of ~ 0.2 - 0.37 (~ 0.1- 0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (dispersion ~ 0.36) and previous study over Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained from this study using CAIPEEX observation over Indian subcontinent. The dispersion based autoconversion-scheme for Indian region must be useful for the Indian summer monsoon precipitation calculation in the general circulation model. The present study also provide valuable guidance for the parameterization of effective radius, important for radiation scheme.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have shown promise in applications like view synthesis and depth estimation, but learning from multiview images faces inherent uncertainties. Current methods to quantify them are either heuristic or computationally demanding. We introduce BayesRays, a post-hoc framework to evaluate uncertainty in any pre-trained NeRF without modifying the training process. Our method establishes a volumetric uncertainty field using spatial perturbations and a Bayesian Laplace approximation. We derive our algorithm statistically and show its superior performance in key metrics and applications. Additional results available at: https://bayesrays.github.io.

This paper investigates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the context of understanding their own knowledge and measuring their uncertainty. We argue this is an important feature for mitigating hallucinations. Specifically, we focus on addressing known-unknown questions, characterized by high uncertainty due to the absence of definitive answers. To facilitate our study, we collect a dataset with new Known-Unknown Questions (KUQ) and propose a novel categorization scheme to elucidate the sources of uncertainty. Subsequently, we assess the LLMs' ability to differentiate between known and unknown questions and classify them accordingly. Moreover, we evaluate the quality of their answers in an Open-Ended QA setting. To quantify the uncertainty expressed in the answers, we create a semantic evaluation method that measures the model's accuracy in expressing uncertainty between known vs unknown questions.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but incorrect information, a phenomenon known as LLM hallucinations. Reliable uncertainty estimation in LLMs is essential for fostering trust in their generated responses and serves as a critical tool for the detection and prevention of erroneous or hallucinated outputs. To achieve reliable and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification in open-ended and free-form natural language generation, we propose an uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach for LLMs. This approach enhances the model's ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates without compromising accuracy, thereby guiding them to produce more trustworthy responses. We introduce a novel uncertainty-aware causal language modeling loss function, grounded in the principles of decision theory. Through rigorous evaluation on multiple free-form question-answering datasets and models, we demonstrate that our uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach yields better calibrated uncertainty estimates in natural language generation tasks than fine-tuning with the standard causal language modeling loss. Furthermore, the experimental results show that the proposed method significantly improves the model's ability to detect hallucinations and identify out-of-domain prompts.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks but still face challenges such as hallucinations. One potential reason for hallucinations is the lack of relevant knowledge or context. Thus, a promising solution to mitigate this issue involves instructing LLMs to respond with "I do not know" when a question falls outside their knowledge domain or the provided context. However, in this work, we observed that LLMs struggle to admit their lack of knowledge, primarily due to existing instruction datasets designed to encourage specific answers. To improve large language models' capability to recognize the boundaries of their knowledge, we propose a novel approach called uncertainty-sensitive tuning. This method involves two-stage training designed for uncertainty recognition and prompt-sensitive activation. In the first stage, we guide the LLM to reject unknown questions. In the second stage, we recover the decreased performance in QA tasks by incorporating designed causal instructions. By leveraging this method, we aim to enhance the model's ability to identify areas of uncertainty. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed uncertainty-sensitive tuning method significantly improves the performance of the Llama2-chat-7B model. Specifically, it achieves a substantial 34.7% improvement in handling questions involving knowledge gaps compared to the original model. Moreover, our approach outperforms GPT-4, exhibiting a 9.4% increase in overall performance. We open-source the model and code on GitHub.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

From a single image, visual cues can help deduce intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters like the focal length and the gravity direction. This single-image calibration can benefit various downstream applications like image editing and 3D mapping. Current approaches to this problem are based on either classical geometry with lines and vanishing points or on deep neural networks trained end-to-end. The learned approaches are more robust but struggle to generalize to new environments and are less accurate than their classical counterparts. We hypothesize that they lack the constraints that 3D geometry provides. In this work, we introduce GeoCalib, a deep neural network that leverages universal rules of 3D geometry through an optimization process. GeoCalib is trained end-to-end to estimate camera parameters and learns to find useful visual cues from the data. Experiments on various benchmarks show that GeoCalib is more robust and more accurate than existing classical and learned approaches. Its internal optimization estimates uncertainties, which help flag failure cases and benefit downstream applications like visual localization. The code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/cvg/GeoCalib.

Despite increasingly fluent, relevant, and coherent language generation, major gaps remain between how humans and machines use language. We argue that a key dimension that is missing from our understanding of language models (LMs) is the model's ability to interpret and generate expressions of uncertainty. Whether it be the weatherperson announcing a chance of rain or a doctor giving a diagnosis, information is often not black-and-white and expressions of uncertainty provide nuance to support human-decision making. The increasing deployment of LMs in the wild motivates us to investigate whether LMs are capable of interpreting expressions of uncertainty and how LMs' behaviors change when learning to emit their own expressions of uncertainty. When injecting expressions of uncertainty into prompts (e.g., "I think the answer is..."), we discover that GPT3's generations vary upwards of 80% in accuracy based on the expression used. We analyze the linguistic characteristics of these expressions and find a drop in accuracy when naturalistic expressions of certainty are present. We find similar effects when teaching models to emit their own expressions of uncertainty, where model calibration suffers when teaching models to emit certainty rather than uncertainty. Together, these results highlight the challenges of building LMs that interpret and generate trustworthy expressions of uncertainty.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

Offline reinforcement learning enables agents to leverage large pre-collected datasets of environment transitions to learn control policies, circumventing the need for potentially expensive or unsafe online data collection. Significant progress has been made recently in offline model-based reinforcement learning, approaches which leverage a learned dynamics model. This typically involves constructing a probabilistic model, and using the model uncertainty to penalize rewards where there is insufficient data, solving for a pessimistic MDP that lower bounds the true MDP. Existing methods, however, exhibit a breakdown between theory and practice, whereby pessimistic return ought to be bounded by the total variation distance of the model from the true dynamics, but is instead implemented through a penalty based on estimated model uncertainty. This has spawned a variety of uncertainty heuristics, with little to no comparison between differing approaches. In this paper, we compare these heuristics, and design novel protocols to investigate their interaction with other hyperparameters, such as the number of models, or imaginary rollout horizon. Using these insights, we show that selecting these key hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization produces superior configurations that are vastly different to those currently used in existing hand-tuned state-of-the-art methods, and result in drastically stronger performance.