Daily Papers

Deep neural networks have become an indispensable technique for audio source separation (ASS). It was recently reported that a variant of CNN architecture called MMDenseNet was successfully employed to solve the ASS problem of estimating source amplitudes, and state-of-the-art results were obtained for DSD100 dataset. To further enhance MMDenseNet, here we propose a novel architecture that integrates long short-term memory (LSTM) in multiple scales with skip connections to efficiently model long-term structures within an audio context. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms MMDenseNet, LSTM and a blend of the two networks. The number of parameters and processing time of the proposed model are significantly less than those for simple blending. Furthermore, the proposed method yields better results than those obtained using ideal binary masks for a singing voice separation task.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

The unequal distribution of educational opportunities carries the risk of having a long-term negative impact on general social peace, a country's economy and basic democratic structures. In contrast to this observable development is the rapid technological progress in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Progress makes it possible to solve various problems in the field of education as well. In order to effectively exploit the advantages that arise from the use of AI, prospective teacher training students need appropriate AI skills, which must already be taught during their studies. In a first step, the added value of this technology will be demonstrated using a concrete example. This article is therefore about conducting an exploratory pilot study to test the Individual Educational Chatbot (IEC-V1) prototype, in which the levels can be individually determined in order to generate appropriate answers depending on the requirements. The results show that this is an important function for prospective teachers, and that there is great interest in taking a closer look at this technology in order to be able to better support learners in the future. The data shows that experience has already been gained with chatbots, but that there is still room for improvement. It also shows that IEC-V1 is already working well. The knowledge gained will be used for the further development of the prototype to further improve the usability of the chatbot. Overall, it is shown that useful AI applications can be effectively integrated into learning situations even without proprietary systems and that important data protection requirements can be complied with.

Within the complex neuroarchitecture of the brain, astrocytes play crucial roles in development, structure, and metabolism. These cells regulate neural activity through tripartite synapses, directly impacting cognitive processes such as learning and memory. Despite the growing recognition of astrocytes' significance, traditional Spiking Neural Network (SNN) models remain predominantly neuron-centric, overlooking the profound influence of astrocytes on neural dynamics. Inspired by these biological insights, we have developed an Astrocyte-Modulated Spiking Unit (AM-SU), an innovative framework that integrates neuron-astrocyte interactions into the computational paradigm, demonstrating wide applicability across various hardware platforms. Our Astrocyte-Modulated Spiking Neural Network (AstroSNN) exhibits exceptional performance in tasks involving memory retention and natural language generation, particularly in handling long-term dependencies and complex linguistic structures. The design of AstroSNN not only enhances its biological authenticity but also introduces novel computational dynamics, enabling more effective processing of complex temporal dependencies. Furthermore, AstroSNN shows low latency, high throughput, and reduced memory usage in practical applications, making it highly suitable for resource-constrained environments. By successfully integrating astrocytic dynamics into intelligent neural networks, our work narrows the gap between biological plausibility and neural modeling, laying the groundwork for future biologically-inspired neural computing research that includes both neurons and astrocytes.

Transformer neural operators have recently become an effective approach for surrogate modeling of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this paper, we introduce a modified implicit factorized transformer (IFactFormer-m) model which replaces the original chained factorized attention with parallel factorized attention. The IFactFormer-m model successfully performs long-term predictions for turbulent channel flow, whereas the original IFactFormer (IFactFormer-o), Fourier neural operator (FNO), and implicit Fourier neural operator (IFNO) exhibit a poor performance. Turbulent channel flows are simulated by direct numerical simulation using fine grids at friction Reynolds numbers Re_{tau}approx 180,395,590, and filtered to coarse grids for training neural operator. The neural operator takes the current flow field as input and predicts the flow field at the next time step, and long-term prediction is achieved in the posterior through an autoregressive approach. The results show that IFactFormer-m, compared to other neural operators and the traditional large eddy simulation (LES) methods including dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM) and the wall-adapted local eddy-viscosity (WALE) model, reduces prediction errors in the short term, and achieves stable and accurate long-term prediction of various statistical properties and flow structures, including the energy spectrum, mean streamwise velocity, root mean square (rms) values of fluctuating velocities, Reynolds shear stress, and spatial structures of instantaneous velocity. Moreover, the trained IFactFormer-m is much faster than traditional LES methods. By analyzing the attention kernels, we elucidate the reasons why IFactFormer-m converges faster and achieves a stable and accurate long-term prediction compared to IFactFormer-o. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/huiyu-2002/IFactFormer-m.

The chain-structured long short-term memory (LSTM) has showed to be effective in a wide range of problems such as speech recognition and machine translation. In this paper, we propose to extend it to tree structures, in which a memory cell can reflect the history memories of multiple child cells or multiple descendant cells in a recursive process. We call the model S-LSTM, which provides a principled way of considering long-distance interaction over hierarchies, e.g., language or image parse structures. We leverage the models for semantic composition to understand the meaning of text, a fundamental problem in natural language understanding, and show that it outperforms a state-of-the-art recursive model by replacing its composition layers with the S-LSTM memory blocks. We also show that utilizing the given structures is helpful in achieving a performance better than that without considering the structures.

In the 1990s, the constant error carousel and gating were introduced as the central ideas of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Since then, LSTMs have stood the test of time and contributed to numerous deep learning success stories, in particular they constituted the first Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the advent of the Transformer technology with parallelizable self-attention at its core marked the dawn of a new era, outpacing LSTMs at scale. We now raise a simple question: How far do we get in language modeling when scaling LSTMs to billions of parameters, leveraging the latest techniques from modern LLMs, but mitigating known limitations of LSTMs? Firstly, we introduce exponential gating with appropriate normalization and stabilization techniques. Secondly, we modify the LSTM memory structure, obtaining: (i) sLSTM with a scalar memory, a scalar update, and new memory mixing, (ii) mLSTM that is fully parallelizable with a matrix memory and a covariance update rule. Integrating these LSTM extensions into residual block backbones yields xLSTM blocks that are then residually stacked into xLSTM architectures. Exponential gating and modified memory structures boost xLSTM capabilities to perform favorably when compared to state-of-the-art Transformers and State Space Models, both in performance and scaling.

Long Short Term Memory LSTM-based structures have demonstrated their efficiency for daily living recognition activities in smart homes by capturing the order of sensor activations and their temporal dependencies. Nevertheless, they still fail in dealing with the semantics and the context of the sensors. More than isolated id and their ordered activation values, sensors also carry meaning. Indeed, their nature and type of activation can translate various activities. Their logs are correlated with each other, creating a global context. We propose to use and compare two Natural Language Processing embedding methods to enhance LSTM-based structures in activity-sequences classification tasks: Word2Vec, a static semantic embedding, and ELMo, a contextualized embedding. Results, on real smart homes datasets, indicate that this approach provides useful information, such as a sensor organization map, and makes less confusion between daily activity classes. It helps to better perform on datasets with competing activities of other residents or pets. Our tests show also that the embeddings can be pretrained on different datasets than the target one, enabling transfer learning. We thus demonstrate that taking into account the context of the sensors and their semantics increases the classification performances and enables transfer learning.

Deep learning is a group of exciting new technologies for neural networks. Through a combination of advanced training techniques and neural network architectural components, it is now possible to create neural networks that can handle tabular data, images, text, and audio as both input and output. Deep learning allows a neural network to learn hierarchies of information in a way that is like the function of the human brain. This course will introduce the student to classic neural network structures, Convolution Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Neural Networks (GRU), General Adversarial Networks (GAN), and reinforcement learning. Application of these architectures to computer vision, time series, security, natural language processing (NLP), and data generation will be covered. High-Performance Computing (HPC) aspects will demonstrate how deep learning can be leveraged both on graphical processing units (GPUs), as well as grids. Focus is primarily upon the application of deep learning to problems, with some introduction to mathematical foundations. Readers will use the Python programming language to implement deep learning using Google TensorFlow and Keras. It is not necessary to know Python prior to this book; however, familiarity with at least one programming language is assumed.

Recent years have seen the rapid development of large generative models for text; however, much less research has explored the connection between text and another "language" of communication -- music. Music, much like text, can convey emotions, stories, and ideas, and has its own unique structure and syntax. In our work, we bridge text and music via a text-to-music generation model that is highly efficient, expressive, and can handle long-term structure. Specifically, we develop Mo\^usai, a cascading two-stage latent diffusion model that can generate multiple minutes of high-quality stereo music at 48kHz from textual descriptions. Moreover, our model features high efficiency, which enables real-time inference on a single consumer GPU with a reasonable speed. Through experiments and property analyses, we show our model's competence over a variety of criteria compared with existing music generation models. Lastly, to promote the open-source culture, we provide a collection of open-source libraries with the hope of facilitating future work in the field. We open-source the following: Codes: https://github.com/archinetai/audio-diffusion-pytorch; music samples for this paper: http://bit.ly/44ozWDH; all music samples for all models: https://bit.ly/audio-diffusion.

We introduce AudioLM, a framework for high-quality audio generation with long-term consistency. AudioLM maps the input audio to a sequence of discrete tokens and casts audio generation as a language modeling task in this representation space. We show how existing audio tokenizers provide different trade-offs between reconstruction quality and long-term structure, and we propose a hybrid tokenization scheme to achieve both objectives. Namely, we leverage the discretized activations of a masked language model pre-trained on audio to capture long-term structure and the discrete codes produced by a neural audio codec to achieve high-quality synthesis. By training on large corpora of raw audio waveforms, AudioLM learns to generate natural and coherent continuations given short prompts. When trained on speech, and without any transcript or annotation, AudioLM generates syntactically and semantically plausible speech continuations while also maintaining speaker identity and prosody for unseen speakers. Furthermore, we demonstrate how our approach extends beyond speech by generating coherent piano music continuations, despite being trained without any symbolic representation of music.

In this work we explore recent advances in Recurrent Neural Networks for large scale Language Modeling, a task central to language understanding. We extend current models to deal with two key challenges present in this task: corpora and vocabulary sizes, and complex, long term structure of language. We perform an exhaustive study on techniques such as character Convolutional Neural Networks or Long-Short Term Memory, on the One Billion Word Benchmark. Our best single model significantly improves state-of-the-art perplexity from 51.3 down to 30.0 (whilst reducing the number of parameters by a factor of 20), while an ensemble of models sets a new record by improving perplexity from 41.0 down to 23.7. We also release these models for the NLP and ML community to study and improve upon.

Transformers have been the most successful architecture for various speech modeling tasks, including speech separation. However, the self-attention mechanism in transformers with quadratic complexity is inefficient in computation and memory. Recent models incorporate new layers and modules along with transformers for better performance but also introduce extra model complexity. In this work, we replace transformers with Mamba, a selective state space model, for speech separation. We propose dual-path Mamba, which models short-term and long-term forward and backward dependency of speech signals using selective state spaces. Our experimental results on the WSJ0-2mix data show that our dual-path Mamba models of comparably smaller sizes outperform state-of-the-art RNN model DPRNN, CNN model WaveSplit, and transformer model Sepformer. Code: https://github.com/xi-j/Mamba-TasNet

Real-world data is high-dimensional: a book, image, or musical performance can easily contain hundreds of thousands of elements even after compression. However, the most commonly used autoregressive models, Transformers, are prohibitively expensive to scale to the number of inputs and layers needed to capture this long-range structure. We develop Perceiver AR, an autoregressive, modality-agnostic architecture which uses cross-attention to map long-range inputs to a small number of latents while also maintaining end-to-end causal masking. Perceiver AR can directly attend to over a hundred thousand tokens, enabling practical long-context density estimation without the need for hand-crafted sparsity patterns or memory mechanisms. When trained on images or music, Perceiver AR generates outputs with clear long-term coherence and structure. Our architecture also obtains state-of-the-art likelihood on long-sequence benchmarks, including 64 x 64 ImageNet images and PG-19 books.

Large language models (LLMs) like GPTs, trained on vast datasets, have demonstrated impressive capabilities in language understanding, reasoning, and planning, achieving human-level performance in various tasks. Most studies focus on enhancing these models by training on ever-larger datasets to build more powerful foundation models. While training stronger models is important, enabling models to evolve during inference is equally crucial, a process we refer to as AI self-evolution. Unlike large-scale training, self-evolution may rely on limited data or interactions. Inspired by the columnar organization of the human cerebral cortex, we hypothesize that AI models could develop cognitive abilities and build internal representations through iterative interactions with their environment. To achieve this, models need long-term memory (LTM) to store and manage processed interaction data. LTM supports self-evolution by representing diverse experiences across environments and agents. In this report, we explore AI self-evolution and its potential to enhance models during inference. We examine LTM's role in lifelong learning, allowing models to evolve based on accumulated interactions. We outline the structure of LTM and the systems needed for effective data retention and representation. We also classify approaches for building personalized models with LTM data and show how these models achieve self-evolution through interaction. Using LTM, our multi-agent framework OMNE achieved first place on the GAIA benchmark, demonstrating LTM's potential for AI self-evolution. Finally, we present a roadmap for future research, emphasizing the importance of LTM for advancing AI technology and its practical applications.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

Effective modeling of complex spatiotemporal dependencies in long-form videos remains an open problem. The recently proposed Structured State-Space Sequence (S4) model with its linear complexity offers a promising direction in this space. However, we demonstrate that treating all image-tokens equally as done by S4 model can adversely affect its efficiency and accuracy. To address this limitation, we present a novel Selective S4 (i.e., S5) model that employs a lightweight mask generator to adaptively select informative image tokens resulting in more efficient and accurate modeling of long-term spatiotemporal dependencies in videos. Unlike previous mask-based token reduction methods used in transformers, our S5 model avoids the dense self-attention calculation by making use of the guidance of the momentum-updated S4 model. This enables our model to efficiently discard less informative tokens and adapt to various long-form video understanding tasks more effectively. However, as is the case for most token reduction methods, the informative image tokens could be dropped incorrectly. To improve the robustness and the temporal horizon of our model, we propose a novel long-short masked contrastive learning (LSMCL) approach that enables our model to predict longer temporal context using shorter input videos. We present extensive comparative results using three challenging long-form video understanding datasets (LVU, COIN and Breakfast), demonstrating that our approach consistently outperforms the previous state-of-the-art S4 model by up to 9.6% accuracy while reducing its memory footprint by 23%.

Recent large language model (LLM)-driven chat assistant systems have integrated memory components to track user-assistant chat histories, enabling more accurate and personalized responses. However, their long-term memory capabilities in sustained interactions remain underexplored. This paper introduces LongMemEval, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate five core long-term memory abilities of chat assistants: information extraction, multi-session reasoning, temporal reasoning, knowledge updates, and abstention. With 500 meticulously curated questions embedded within freely scalable user-assistant chat histories, LongMemEval presents a significant challenge to existing long-term memory systems, with commercial chat assistants and long-context LLMs showing 30% accuracy drop on memorizing information across sustained interactions. We then present a unified framework that breaks down the long-term memory design into four design choices across the indexing, retrieval, and reading stages. Built upon key experimental insights, we propose several memory designs including session decomposition for optimizing value granularity, fact-augmented key expansion for enhancing the index structure, and time-aware query expansion for refining the search scope. Experiment results show that these optimizations greatly improve both memory recall and downstream question answering on LongMemEval. Overall, our study provides valuable resources and guidance for advancing the long-term memory capabilities of LLM-based chat assistants, paving the way toward more personalized and reliable conversational AI.

Music generation has progressed significantly, especially in the domain of audio generation. However, generating symbolic music that is both long-structured and expressive remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we propose PerceiverS (Segmentation and Scale), a novel architecture designed to address this issue by leveraging both Effective Segmentation and Multi-Scale attention mechanisms. Our approach enhances symbolic music generation by simultaneously learning long-term structural dependencies and short-term expressive details. By combining cross-attention and self-attention in a Multi-Scale setting, PerceiverS captures long-range musical structure while preserving performance nuances. The proposed model, evaluated on datasets like Maestro, demonstrates improvements in generating coherent and diverse music with both structural consistency and expressive variation. The project demos and the generated music samples can be accessed through the link: https://perceivers.github.io.

We introduce PointOdyssey, a large-scale synthetic dataset, and data generation framework, for the training and evaluation of long-term fine-grained tracking algorithms. Our goal is to advance the state-of-the-art by placing emphasis on long videos with naturalistic motion. Toward the goal of naturalism, we animate deformable characters using real-world motion capture data, we build 3D scenes to match the motion capture environments, and we render camera viewpoints using trajectories mined via structure-from-motion on real videos. We create combinatorial diversity by randomizing character appearance, motion profiles, materials, lighting, 3D assets, and atmospheric effects. Our dataset currently includes 104 videos, averaging 2,000 frames long, with orders of magnitude more correspondence annotations than prior work. We show that existing methods can be trained from scratch in our dataset and outperform the published variants. Finally, we introduce modifications to the PIPs point tracking method, greatly widening its temporal receptive field, which improves its performance on PointOdyssey as well as on two real-world benchmarks. Our data and code are publicly available at: https://pointodyssey.com

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

Solving mathematical problems using computer-verifiable languages like Lean has significantly impacted mathematical and computer science communities. State-of-the-art methods utilize single Large Language Models (LLMs) as agents or provers to either generate complete proof or perform tree searches. However, single-agent methods inherently lack a structured way to combine high-level reasoning in Natural Language (NL) with Formal Language (FL) verification feedback. To solve these issues, we propose MA-LoT: Multi-Agent Lean-based Long Chain-of-Thought framework, (to the best of our knowledge), the first multi-agent framework for Lean4 theorem proving that balance high-level NL reasoning and FL verification in Long CoT. Using this structured interaction, our approach enables deeper insights and long-term coherence in proof generation, with which past methods struggle. We do this by leveraging emergent formal reasoning ability in Long CoT using our novel LoT-Transfer Learning training-inference pipeline. Extensive experiments show that our framework achieves 54.51% accuracy rate on the Lean4 version of MiniF2F-Test dataset, largely outperforming GPT-4 (22.95%), single-agent tree search (InternLM-Step-Prover, 50.70%), and whole-proof generation (DeepSeek-Prover-v1.5, 48.36%) baselines. Furthermore, our findings highlight the potential of combining Long CoT with formal verification for a more insightful generation in a broader perspective.

The diversity and complexity of Indic languages present unique challenges for natural language processing (NLP) tasks, particularly in the domain of question answering (QA).To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of State Space Models (SSMs),to build efficient and contextually aware QA systems tailored for Indic languages. SSMs are particularly suited for this task due to their ability to model long-term and short-term dependencies in sequential data, making them well-equipped to handle the rich morphology, complex syntax, and contextual intricacies characteristic of Indian languages. We evaluated multiple SSM architectures across diverse datasets representing various Indic languages and conducted a comparative analysis of their performance. Our results demonstrate that these models effectively capture linguistic subtleties, leading to significant improvements in question interpretation, context alignment, and answer generation. This work represents the first application of SSMs to question answering tasks in Indic languages, establishing a foundational benchmark for future research in this domain. We propose enhancements to existing SSM frameworks, optimizing their applicability to low-resource settings and multilingual scenarios prevalent in Indic languages.

Due to the recurrent structure of RNN, the long information propagation path poses limitations in capturing long-term dependencies, gradient explosion/vanishing issues, and inefficient sequential execution. Based on this, we propose a novel paradigm called Parallel Gated Network (PGN) as the new successor to RNN. PGN directly captures information from previous time steps through the designed Historical Information Extraction (HIE) layer and leverages gated mechanisms to select and fuse it with the current time step information. This reduces the information propagation path to O(1), effectively addressing the limitations of RNN. To enhance PGN's performance in long-range time series forecasting tasks, we propose a novel temporal modeling framework called Temporal PGN (TPGN). TPGN incorporates two branches to comprehensively capture the semantic information of time series. One branch utilizes PGN to capture long-term periodic patterns while preserving their local characteristics. The other branch employs patches to capture short-term information and aggregate the global representation of the series. TPGN achieves a theoretical complexity of O(L), ensuring efficiency in its operations. Experimental results on five benchmark datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and high efficiency of TPGN, further confirming the effectiveness of PGN as the new successor to RNN in long-range time series forecasting. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Water2sea/TPGN.

Music is characterized by complex hierarchical structures. Developing a comprehensive model to capture these structures has been a significant challenge in the field of Music Information Retrieval (MIR). Prior research has mainly focused on addressing individual tasks for specific hierarchical levels, rather than providing a unified approach. In this paper, we introduce a versatile, all-in-one model that jointly performs beat and downbeat tracking as well as functional structure segmentation and labeling. The model leverages source-separated spectrograms as inputs and employs dilated neighborhood attentions to capture temporal long-term dependencies, along with non-dilated attentions for local instrumental dependencies. Consequently, the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance in all four tasks on the Harmonix Set while maintaining a relatively lower number of parameters compared to recent state-of-the-art models. Furthermore, our ablation study demonstrates that the concurrent learning of beats, downbeats, and segments can lead to enhanced performance, with each task mutually benefiting from the others.

Context. Recent developments in exoplanetary research highlight the importance of Love numbers in understanding their internal dynamics, formation, migration history and their potential habitability. Love numbers represent crucial parameters that gauge how exoplanets respond to external forces such as tidal interactions and rotational effects. By measuring these responses, we can gain insights into the internal structure, composition, and density distribution of exoplanets. The rate of apsidal precession of a planetary orbit is directly linked to the second-order fluid Love number, thus we can gain valuable insights into the mass distribution of the planet. Aims. In this context, we aim to re-determine the orbital parameters of WASP-43b-in particular, orbital period, eccentricity, and argument of the periastron-and its orbital evolution. We study the outcomes of the tidal interaction with the host star:whether tidal decay and periastron precession are occurring in the system. Method. We observed the system with HARPS, whose data we present for the first time, and we also analyse the newly acquired JWST full-phase light curve. We fit jointly archival and new radial velocity and transit and occultation mid-times, including tidal decay, periastron precession and long-term acceleration in the system. Results. We detected a tidal decay rate of \dotP_a=(-1.99pm0.50) and a periastron precession rate of \dotomega=(0.1851+0.0070-0.0077)=(0.1727+0.0083-0.0089)deg/d=(621.72+29.88-32.04)arcsec/d. This is the first time that both periastron precession and tidal decay are simultaneously detected in an exoplanetary system. The observed tidal interactions can neither be explained by the tidal contribution to apsidal motion of a non-aligned stellar or planetary rotation axis nor by assuming non-synchronous rotation for the planet, and a value for the planetary Love number cannot be derived. [...]

Intelligent tutoring systems optimize the selection and timing of learning materials to enhance understanding and long-term retention. This requires estimates of both the learner's progress (''knowledge tracing''; KT), and the prerequisite structure of the learning domain (''knowledge mapping''). While recent deep learning models achieve high KT accuracy, they do so at the expense of the interpretability of psychologically-inspired models. In this work, we present a solution to this trade-off. PSI-KT is a hierarchical generative approach that explicitly models how both individual cognitive traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge influence learning dynamics, thus achieving interpretability by design. Moreover, by using scalable Bayesian inference, PSI-KT targets the real-world need for efficient personalization even with a growing body of learners and learning histories. Evaluated on three datasets from online learning platforms, PSI-KT achieves superior multi-step predictive accuracy and scalable inference in continual-learning settings, all while providing interpretable representations of learner-specific traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge that causally supports learning. In sum, predictive, scalable and interpretable knowledge tracing with solid knowledge mapping lays a key foundation for effective personalized learning to make education accessible to a broad, global audience.

How humans and machines make sense of current inputs for relation reasoning and question-answering while putting the perceived information into context of our past memories, has been a challenging conundrum in cognitive science and artificial intelligence. Inspired by human brain's memory system and cognitive architectures, we propose a PMI framework that consists of perception, memory and inference components. Notably, the memory module comprises working and long-term memory, with the latter endowed with a higher-order structure to retain more accumulated knowledge and experiences. Through a differentiable competitive write access, current perceptions update working memory, which is later merged with long-term memory via outer product associations, averting memory overflow and minimizing information conflicts. In the inference module, relevant information is retrieved from two separate memory origins and associatively integrated to attain a more comprehensive and precise interpretation of current perceptions. We exploratively apply our PMI to improve prevailing Transformers and CNN models on question-answering tasks like bAbI-20k and Sort-of-CLEVR datasets, as well as relation calculation and image classification tasks, and in each case, our PMI enhancements consistently outshine their original counterparts significantly. Visualization analyses reveal that memory consolidation, along with the interaction and integration of information from diverse memory sources, substantially contributes to the model effectiveness on inference tasks.

Realistic simulation is critical for applications ranging from robotics to animation. Traditional analytic simulators sometimes struggle to capture sufficiently realistic simulation which can lead to problems including the well known "sim-to-real" gap in robotics. Learned simulators have emerged as an alternative for better capturing real-world physical dynamics, but require access to privileged ground truth physics information such as precise object geometry or particle tracks. Here we propose a method for learning simulators directly from observations. Visual Particle Dynamics (VPD) jointly learns a latent particle-based representation of 3D scenes, a neural simulator of the latent particle dynamics, and a renderer that can produce images of the scene from arbitrary views. VPD learns end to end from posed RGB-D videos and does not require access to privileged information. Unlike existing 2D video prediction models, we show that VPD's 3D structure enables scene editing and long-term predictions. These results pave the way for downstream applications ranging from video editing to robotic planning.

Developing intelligent agents for long-term cooperation in dynamic open-world scenarios is a major challenge in multi-agent systems. Traditional Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) frameworks like centralized training decentralized execution (CTDE) struggle with scalability and flexibility. They require centralized long-term planning, which is difficult without custom reward functions, and face challenges in processing multi-modal data. CTDE approaches also assume fixed cooperation strategies, making them impractical in dynamic environments where agents need to adapt and plan independently. To address decentralized multi-agent cooperation, we propose Decentralized Adaptive Knowledge Graph Memory and Structured Communication System (DAMCS) in a novel Multi-agent Crafter environment. Our generative agents, powered by Large Language Models (LLMs), are more scalable than traditional MARL agents by leveraging external knowledge and language for long-term planning and reasoning. Instead of fully sharing information from all past experiences, DAMCS introduces a multi-modal memory system organized as a hierarchical knowledge graph and a structured communication protocol to optimize agent cooperation. This allows agents to reason from past interactions and share relevant information efficiently. Experiments on novel multi-agent open-world tasks show that DAMCS outperforms both MARL and LLM baselines in task efficiency and collaboration. Compared to single-agent scenarios, the two-agent scenario achieves the same goal with 63% fewer steps, and the six-agent scenario with 74% fewer steps, highlighting the importance of adaptive memory and structured communication in achieving long-term goals. We publicly release our project at: https://happyeureka.github.io/damcs.

This paper shows how Long Short-term Memory recurrent neural networks can be used to generate complex sequences with long-range structure, simply by predicting one data point at a time. The approach is demonstrated for text (where the data are discrete) and online handwriting (where the data are real-valued). It is then extended to handwriting synthesis by allowing the network to condition its predictions on a text sequence. The resulting system is able to generate highly realistic cursive handwriting in a wide variety of styles.

Transformers are widely used as generic backbones in computer vision, despite initially introduced for natural language processing. Recently, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) has been extended to a scalable and performant architecture - the xLSTM - which overcomes long-standing LSTM limitations via exponential gating and parallelizable matrix memory structure. In this report, we introduce Vision-LSTM (ViL), an adaption of the xLSTM building blocks to computer vision. ViL comprises a stack of xLSTM blocks where odd blocks process the sequence of patch tokens from top to bottom while even blocks go from bottom to top. Experiments show that ViL holds promise to be further deployed as new generic backbone for computer vision architectures.

We introduce Agent K v1.0, an end-to-end autonomous data science agent designed to automate, optimise, and generalise across diverse data science tasks. Fully automated, Agent K v1.0 manages the entire data science life cycle by learning from experience. It leverages a highly flexible structured reasoning framework to enable it to dynamically process memory in a nested structure, effectively learning from accumulated experience stored to handle complex reasoning tasks. It optimises long- and short-term memory by selectively storing and retrieving key information, guiding future decisions based on environmental rewards. This iterative approach allows it to refine decisions without fine-tuning or backpropagation, achieving continuous improvement through experiential learning. We evaluate our agent's apabilities using Kaggle competitions as a case study. Following a fully automated protocol, Agent K v1.0 systematically addresses complex and multimodal data science tasks, employing Bayesian optimisation for hyperparameter tuning and feature engineering. Our new evaluation framework rigorously assesses Agent K v1.0's end-to-end capabilities to generate and send submissions starting from a Kaggle competition URL. Results demonstrate that Agent K v1.0 achieves a 92.5\% success rate across tasks, spanning tabular, computer vision, NLP, and multimodal domains. When benchmarking against 5,856 human Kaggle competitors by calculating Elo-MMR scores for each, Agent K v1.0 ranks in the top 38\%, demonstrating an overall skill level comparable to Expert-level users. Notably, its Elo-MMR score falls between the first and third quartiles of scores achieved by human Grandmasters. Furthermore, our results indicate that Agent K v1.0 has reached a performance level equivalent to Kaggle Grandmaster, with a record of 6 gold, 3 silver, and 7 bronze medals, as defined by Kaggle's progression system.

Model pre-training is essential in human-centric perception. In this paper, we first introduce masked image modeling (MIM) as a pre-training approach for this task. Upon revisiting the MIM training strategy, we reveal that human structure priors offer significant potential. Motivated by this insight, we further incorporate an intuitive human structure prior - human parts - into pre-training. Specifically, we employ this prior to guide the mask sampling process. Image patches, corresponding to human part regions, have high priority to be masked out. This encourages the model to concentrate more on body structure information during pre-training, yielding substantial benefits across a range of human-centric perception tasks. To further capture human characteristics, we propose a structure-invariant alignment loss that enforces different masked views, guided by the human part prior, to be closely aligned for the same image. We term the entire method as HAP. HAP simply uses a plain ViT as the encoder yet establishes new state-of-the-art performance on 11 human-centric benchmarks, and on-par result on one dataset. For example, HAP achieves 78.1% mAP on MSMT17 for person re-identification, 86.54% mA on PA-100K for pedestrian attribute recognition, 78.2% AP on MS COCO for 2D pose estimation, and 56.0 PA-MPJPE on 3DPW for 3D pose and shape estimation.

Calibrating large-scale camera arrays, such as those in dome-based setups, is time-intensive and typically requires dedicated captures of known patterns. While extrinsics in such arrays are fixed due to the physical setup, intrinsics often vary across sessions due to factors like lens adjustments or temperature changes. In this paper, we propose a dense-feature-driven multi-frame calibration method that refines intrinsics directly from scene data, eliminating the necessity for additional calibration captures. Our approach enhances traditional Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines by introducing an extrinsics regularization term to progressively align estimated extrinsics with ground-truth values, a dense feature reprojection term to reduce keypoint errors by minimizing reprojection loss in the feature space, and an intrinsics variance term for joint optimization across multiple frames. Experiments on the Multiface dataset show that our method achieves nearly the same precision as dedicated calibration processes, and significantly enhances intrinsics and 3D reconstruction accuracy. Fully compatible with existing SfM pipelines, our method provides an efficient and practical plug-and-play solution for large-scale camera setups. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/YJJfish/Multi-Cali-Anything

Memory plays a pivotal role in enabling large language model~(LLM)-based agents to engage in complex and long-term interactions, such as question answering (QA) and dialogue systems. While various memory modules have been proposed for these tasks, the impact of different memory structures across tasks remains insufficiently explored. This paper investigates how memory structures and memory retrieval methods affect the performance of LLM-based agents. Specifically, we evaluate four types of memory structures, including chunks, knowledge triples, atomic facts, and summaries, along with mixed memory that combines these components. In addition, we evaluate three widely used memory retrieval methods: single-step retrieval, reranking, and iterative retrieval. Extensive experiments conducted across four tasks and six datasets yield the following key insights: (1) Different memory structures offer distinct advantages, enabling them to be tailored to specific tasks; (2) Mixed memory structures demonstrate remarkable resilience in noisy environments; (3) Iterative retrieval consistently outperforms other methods across various scenarios. Our investigation aims to inspire further research into the design of memory systems for LLM-based agents.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Reliably identifying reinforced concrete defects (RCDs)plays a crucial role in assessing the structural integrity, traffic safety, and long-term durability of concrete bridges, which represent the most common bridge type worldwide. Nevertheless, available datasets for the recognition of RCDs are small in terms of size and class variety, which questions their usability in real-world scenarios and their role as a benchmark. Our contribution to this problem is "dacl10k", an exceptionally diverse RCD dataset for multi-label semantic segmentation comprising 9,920 images deriving from real-world bridge inspections. dacl10k distinguishes 12 damage classes as well as 6 bridge components that play a key role in the building assessment and recommending actions, such as restoration works, traffic load limitations or bridge closures. In addition, we examine baseline models for dacl10k which are subsequently evaluated. The best model achieves a mean intersection-over-union of 0.42 on the test set. dacl10k, along with our baselines, will be openly accessible to researchers and practitioners, representing the currently biggest dataset regarding number of images and class diversity for semantic segmentation in the bridge inspection domain.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

Breakthroughs in deep learning and memory networks have made major advances in natural language understanding. Language is sequential and information carried through the sequence can be captured through memory networks. Learning the sequence is one of the key aspects in learning the language. However, memory networks are not capable of holding infinitely long sequences in their memories and are limited by various constraints such as the vanishing or exploding gradient problem. Therefore, natural language understanding models are affected when presented with long sequential text. We introduce Long Term Memory network (LTM) to learn from infinitely long sequences. LTM gives priority to the current inputs to allow it to have a high impact. Language modeling is an important factor in natural language understanding. LTM was tested in language modeling, which requires long term memory. LTM is tested on Penn Tree bank dataset, Google Billion Word dataset and WikiText-2 dataset. We compare LTM with other language models which require long term memory.

A human author can write any length of story without losing coherence. Also, they always bring the story to a proper ending, an ability that current language models lack. In this work, we present the LongStory for coherent, complete, and length-controlled long story generation. LongStory introduces two novel methodologies: (1) the long and short-term contexts weight calibrator (CWC) and (2) long story structural positions (LSP). The CWC adjusts weights for long-term context Memory and short-term context Cheating, acknowledging their distinct roles. The LSP employs discourse tokens to convey the structural positions of a long story. Trained on three datasets with varied average story lengths, LongStory outperforms other baselines, including the strong story generator Plotmachine, in coherence, completeness, relevance, and repetitiveness. We also perform zero-shot tests on each dataset to assess the model's ability to predict outcomes beyond its training data and validate our methodology by comparing its performance with variants of our model.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

With the rapid advancement of AI systems, their abilities to store, retrieve, and utilize information over the long term - referred to as long-term memory - have become increasingly significant. These capabilities are crucial for enhancing the performance of AI systems across a wide range of tasks. However, there is currently no comprehensive survey that systematically investigates AI's long-term memory capabilities, formulates a theoretical framework, and inspires the development of next-generation AI long-term memory systems. This paper begins by systematically introducing the mechanisms of human long-term memory, then explores AI long-term memory mechanisms, establishing a mapping between the two. Based on the mapping relationships identified, we extend the current cognitive architectures and propose the Cognitive Architecture of Self-Adaptive Long-term Memory (SALM). SALM provides a theoretical framework for the practice of AI long-term memory and holds potential for guiding the creation of next-generation long-term memory driven AI systems. Finally, we delve into the future directions and application prospects of AI long-term memory.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

We describe a new class of learning models called memory networks. Memory networks reason with inference components combined with a long-term memory component; they learn how to use these jointly. The long-term memory can be read and written to, with the goal of using it for prediction. We investigate these models in the context of question answering (QA) where the long-term memory effectively acts as a (dynamic) knowledge base, and the output is a textual response. We evaluate them on a large-scale QA task, and a smaller, but more complex, toy task generated from a simulated world. In the latter, we show the reasoning power of such models by chaining multiple supporting sentences to answer questions that require understanding the intension of verbs.

Predicting future stock prices and their movement patterns is a complex problem. Hence, building a portfolio of capital assets using the predicted prices to achieve the optimization between its return and risk is an even more difficult task. This work has carried out an analysis of the time series of the historical prices of the top five stocks from the nine different sectors of the Indian stock market from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are built for each of these sectors. For predicting future stock prices, a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) model is also designed and fine-tuned. After five months of the portfolio construction, the actual and the predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns of each portfolio are found to be high, indicating the high precision of the LSTM model.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and specifically a variant with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are enjoying renewed interest as a result of successful applications in a wide range of machine learning problems that involve sequential data. However, while LSTMs provide exceptional results in practice, the source of their performance and their limitations remain rather poorly understood. Using character-level language models as an interpretable testbed, we aim to bridge this gap by providing an analysis of their representations, predictions and error types. In particular, our experiments reveal the existence of interpretable cells that keep track of long-range dependencies such as line lengths, quotes and brackets. Moreover, our comparative analysis with finite horizon n-gram models traces the source of the LSTM improvements to long-range structural dependencies. Finally, we provide analysis of the remaining errors and suggests areas for further study.

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

Dependency tree structures capture long-distance and syntactic relationships between words in a sentence. The syntactic relations (e.g., nominal subject, object) can potentially infer the existence of certain named entities. In addition, the performance of a named entity recognizer could benefit from the long-distance dependencies between the words in dependency trees. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective dependency-guided LSTM-CRF model to encode the complete dependency trees and capture the above properties for the task of named entity recognition (NER). The data statistics show strong correlations between the entity types and dependency relations. We conduct extensive experiments on several standard datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in improving NER and achieving state-of-the-art performance. Our analysis reveals that the significant improvements mainly result from the dependency relations and long-distance interactions provided by dependency trees.

When reading long-form text, human cognition is complex and structurized. While large language models (LLMs) process input contexts through a causal and sequential perspective, this approach can potentially limit their ability to handle intricate and complex inputs effectively. To enhance LLM's cognition capability, this paper presents a novel concept of context structurization. Specifically, we transform the plain, unordered contextual sentences into well-ordered and hierarchically structurized elements. By doing so, LLMs can better grasp intricate and extended contexts through precise attention and information-seeking along the organized structures. Extensive evaluations are conducted across various model architectures and sizes (including a series of auto-regressive LLMs as well as BERT-like masking models) on a diverse set of NLP tasks (e.g., context-based question-answering, exhaustive hallucination evaluation, and passage-level dense retrieval). Empirical results show consistent and significant performance gains afforded by a single-round structurization. In particular, we boost the open-sourced LLaMA2-70B model to achieve comparable performance against GPT-3.5-Turbo as the hallucination evaluator. Besides, we show the feasibility of distilling advanced LLMs' language processing abilities to a smaller yet effective StruXGPT-7B to execute structurization, addressing the practicality of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/alibaba/struxgpt.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

Designing robust systems for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. Even more challenging is to build a system for constructing an optimum portfolio of stocks based on the forecasted future stock prices. We present a deep learning-based regression model built on a long-and-short-term memory network (LSTM) network that automatically scraps the web and extracts historical stock prices based on a stock's ticker name for a specified pair of start and end dates, and forecasts the future stock prices. We deploy the model on 75 significant stocks chosen from 15 critical sectors of the Indian stock market. For each of the stocks, the model is evaluated for its forecast accuracy. Moreover, the predicted values of the stock prices are used as the basis for investment decisions, and the returns on the investments are computed. Extensive results are presented on the performance of the model. The analysis of the results demonstrates the efficacy and effectiveness of the system and enables us to compare the profitability of the sectors from the point of view of the investors in the stock market.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

Long-context modeling capabilities are important for large language models (LLMs) in various applications. However, directly training LLMs with long context windows is insufficient to enhance this capability since some training samples do not exhibit strong semantic dependencies across long contexts. In this study, we propose a data mining framework ProLong that can assign each training sample with a long dependency score, which can be used to rank and filter samples that are more advantageous for enhancing long-context modeling abilities in LLM training. Specifically, we first use delta perplexity scores to measure the Dependency Strength between text segments in a given document. Then we refine this metric based on the Dependency Distance of these segments to incorporate spatial relationships across long-contexts. Final results are calibrated with a Dependency Specificity metric to prevent trivial dependencies introduced by repetitive patterns. Moreover, a random sampling approach is proposed to optimize the computational efficiency of ProLong. Comprehensive experiments on multiple benchmarks indicate that ProLong effectively identifies documents that carry long dependencies and LLMs trained on these documents exhibit significantly enhanced long-context modeling capabilities.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

We propose a novel method called Long Expressive Memory (LEM) for learning long-term sequential dependencies. LEM is gradient-based, it can efficiently process sequential tasks with very long-term dependencies, and it is sufficiently expressive to be able to learn complicated input-output maps. To derive LEM, we consider a system of multiscale ordinary differential equations, as well as a suitable time-discretization of this system. For LEM, we derive rigorous bounds to show the mitigation of the exploding and vanishing gradients problem, a well-known challenge for gradient-based recurrent sequential learning methods. We also prove that LEM can approximate a large class of dynamical systems to high accuracy. Our empirical results, ranging from image and time-series classification through dynamical systems prediction to speech recognition and language modeling, demonstrate that LEM outperforms state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks, gated recurrent units, and long short-term memory models.

Long-context large language models (LC LLMs) promise to increase reliability of LLMs in real-world tasks requiring processing and understanding of long input documents. However, this ability of LC LLMs to reliably utilize their growing context windows remains under investigation. In this work, we evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art GPT-4 suite of LC LLMs in solving a series of progressively challenging tasks, as a function of factors such as context length, task difficulty, and position of key information by creating a real world financial news dataset. Our findings indicate that LC LLMs exhibit brittleness at longer context lengths even for simple tasks, with performance deteriorating sharply as task complexity increases. At longer context lengths, these state-of-the-art models experience catastrophic failures in instruction following resulting in degenerate outputs. Our prompt ablations also reveal unfortunate continued sensitivity to both the placement of the task instruction in the context window as well as minor markdown formatting. Finally, we advocate for more rigorous evaluation of LC LLMs by employing holistic metrics such as F1 (rather than recall) and reporting confidence intervals, thereby ensuring robust and conclusive findings.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies between data points. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are good at capturing local patterns for modeling short-term dependencies. However, CNNs cannot learn long-term dependencies due to the limited receptive field. Transformers on the other hand are capable of learning global context and long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose to harness the power of CNNs and Transformers to model both short-term and long-term dependencies within a time series, and forecast if the price would go up, down or remain the same (flat) in the future. In our experiments, we demonstrated the success of the proposed method in comparison to commonly adopted statistical and deep learning methods on forecasting intraday stock price change of S&P 500 constituents.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

Existing benchmarks for evaluating long-context language models (LCLMs) primarily focus on long-context recall, requiring models to produce short responses based on a few critical snippets while processing thousands of irrelevant tokens. We introduce LongProc (Long Procedural Generation), a new benchmark that requires both the integration of highly dispersed information and long-form generation. LongProc consists of six diverse procedural generation tasks, such as extracting structured information from HTML pages into a TSV format and executing complex search procedures to create travel plans. These tasks challenge LCLMs by testing their ability to follow detailed procedural instructions, synthesize and reason over dispersed information, and generate structured, long-form outputs (up to 8K tokens). Furthermore, as these tasks adhere to deterministic procedures and yield structured outputs, they enable reliable rule-based evaluation. We evaluate 17 LCLMs on LongProc across three difficulty levels, with maximum numbers of output tokens set at 500, 2K, and 8K. Notably, while all tested models claim a context window size above 32K tokens, open-weight models typically falter on 2K-token tasks, and closed-source models like GPT-4o show significant degradation on 8K-token tasks. Further analysis reveals that LCLMs struggle to maintain long-range coherence in long-form generations. These findings highlight critical limitations in current LCLMs and suggest substantial room for improvement. Data and code available at: https://princeton-pli.github.io/LongProc

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) tackle complex reasoning problems by following long chain-of-thoughts (Long CoT) that incorporate reflection, backtracking, and self-validation. However, the training techniques and data requirements to elicit Long CoT remain poorly understood. In this work, we find that a Large Language model (LLM) can effectively learn Long CoT reasoning through data-efficient supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and parameter-efficient low-rank adaptation (LoRA). With just 17k long CoT training samples, the Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct model achieves significant improvements on a wide range of math and coding benchmarks, including 56.7% (+40.0%) on AIME 2024 and 57.0% (+8.1%) on LiveCodeBench, competitive to the proprietary o1-preview model's score of 44.6% and 59.1%. More importantly, we find that the structure of Long CoT is critical to the learning process, whereas the content of individual reasoning steps has minimal impact. Perturbations affecting content, such as training on incorrect samples or removing reasoning keywords, have little impact on performance. In contrast, structural modifications that disrupt logical consistency in the Long CoT, such as shuffling or deleting reasoning steps, significantly degrade accuracy. For example, a model trained on Long CoT samples with incorrect answers still achieves only 3.2% lower accuracy compared to training with fully correct samples. These insights deepen our understanding of how to elicit reasoning capabilities in LLMs and highlight key considerations for efficiently training the next generation of reasoning models. This is the academic paper of our previous released Sky-T1-32B-Preview model. Codes are available at https://github.com/NovaSky-AI/SkyThought.

The success of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in language processing is typically attributed to their ability to capture long-distance statistical regularities. Linguistic regularities are often sensitive to syntactic structure; can such dependencies be captured by LSTMs, which do not have explicit structural representations? We begin addressing this question using number agreement in English subject-verb dependencies. We probe the architecture's grammatical competence both using training objectives with an explicit grammatical target (number prediction, grammaticality judgments) and using language models. In the strongly supervised settings, the LSTM achieved very high overall accuracy (less than 1% errors), but errors increased when sequential and structural information conflicted. The frequency of such errors rose sharply in the language-modeling setting. We conclude that LSTMs can capture a non-trivial amount of grammatical structure given targeted supervision, but stronger architectures may be required to further reduce errors; furthermore, the language modeling signal is insufficient for capturing syntax-sensitive dependencies, and should be supplemented with more direct supervision if such dependencies need to be captured.

With the development of large language models (LLMs), there has been an increasing need for significant advancements in handling long contexts. To enhance long-context capabilities, constructing high-quality training data with long-range dependencies is crucial. Existing methods to select long-context data often rely on sentence-level analysis, which can be greatly optimized in both performance and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel token-level framework, LongAttn, which leverages the self-attention mechanism of LLMs to measure the long-range dependencies for the data. By calculating token-level dependency strength and distribution uniformity of token scores, LongAttn effectively quantifies long-range dependencies, enabling more accurate and efficient data selection. We filter LongABC-32K from open-source long-context datasets (ArXiv, Book, and Code). Through our comprehensive experiments, LongAttn has demonstrated its excellent effectiveness, scalability, and efficiency. To facilitate future research in long-context data, we released our code and the high-quality long-context training data LongABC-32K.

Recent years have seen a paradigm shift in NLP towards using pretrained language models ({PLM}) for a wide range of tasks. However, there are many difficult design decisions to represent structures (e.g. tagged text, coreference chains) in a way such that they can be captured by PLMs. Prior work on structured prediction with PLMs typically flattens the structured output into a sequence, which limits the quality of structural information being learned and leads to inferior performance compared to classic discriminative models. In this work, we describe an approach to model structures as sequences of actions in an autoregressive manner with PLMs, allowing in-structure dependencies to be learned without any loss. Our approach achieves the new state-of-the-art on all the structured prediction tasks we looked at, namely, named entity recognition, end-to-end relation extraction, and coreference resolution.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on stock price prediction, leveragingadvanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to improve financial forecasting accuracy. The research evaluates the performance of various recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and attention-based models. These models are assessed for their ability to capture complex temporal dependencies inherent in stock market data. Our findings show that attention-based models outperform other architectures, achieving the highest accuracy by capturing both short and long-term dependencies. This study contributes valuable insights into AI-driven financial forecasting, offering practical guidance for developing more accurate and efficient trading systems.

We introduce LongSkywork, a long-context Large Language Model (LLM) capable of processing up to 200,000 tokens. We provide a training recipe for efficiently extending context length of LLMs. We identify that the critical element in enhancing long-context processing capability is to incorporate a long-context SFT stage following the standard SFT stage. A mere 200 iterations can convert the standard SFT model into a long-context model. To reduce the effort in collecting and annotating data for long-context language modeling, we develop two novel methods for creating synthetic data. These methods are applied during the continual pretraining phase as well as the Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) phase, greatly enhancing the training efficiency of our long-context LLMs. Our findings suggest that synthetic long-context SFT data can surpass the performance of data curated by humans to some extent. LongSkywork achieves outstanding performance on a variety of long-context benchmarks. In the Needle test, a benchmark for long-context information retrieval, our models achieved perfect accuracy across multiple context spans. Moreover, in realistic application scenarios, LongSkywork-13B demonstrates performance on par with Claude2.1, the leading long-context model, underscoring the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Large language models (LLMs) with extended context windows have made significant strides yet remain a challenge due to the scarcity of long documents. Existing methods tend to synthesize long-context data but lack a clear mechanism to reinforce the long-range dependency modeling. To address this limitation, we propose NExtLong, a novel framework for synthesizing long-context data through Negative document Extension. NExtLong decomposes a document into multiple meta-chunks and extends the context by interleaving hard negative distractors retrieved from pretraining corpora. This approach compels the model to discriminate long-range dependent context from distracting content, enhancing its ability to model long-range dependencies. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NExtLong achieves significant performance improvements on the HELMET and RULER benchmarks compared to existing long-context synthesis approaches and leading models, which are trained on non-synthetic long documents. These findings highlight NExtLong's ability to reduce reliance on non-synthetic long documents, making it an effective framework for developing advanced long-context LLMs.

Despite the power of Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4, they still struggle with tasks that require generating complex, structured outputs. In this study, we assess the capability of Current LLMs in generating complex structured data and propose a structure-aware fine-tuning approach as a solution to improve this ability. To perform a comprehensive evaluation, we propose Struc-Bench, include five representative LLMs (i.e., GPT-NeoX 20B, GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Vicuna) and evaluate them on our carefully constructed datasets spanning raw text, HTML, and LaTeX tables. Based on our analysis of current model performance, we identify specific common formatting errors and areas of potential improvement. To address complex formatting requirements, we utilize FormatCoT (Chain-of-Thought) to generate format instructions from target outputs. Our experiments show that our structure-aware fine-tuning method, when applied to LLaMA-7B, significantly improves adherence to natural language constraints, outperforming other evaluated LLMs. Based on these results, we present an ability map of model capabilities from six dimensions (i.e., coverage, formatting, reasoning, comprehension, pragmatics, and hallucination). This map highlights the weaknesses of LLMs in handling complex structured outputs and suggests promising directions for future work. Our code and models can be found at https://github.com/gersteinlab/Struc-Bench.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

Large language models (LLMs) are now widely used in various fields, including finance. However, Japanese financial-specific LLMs have not been proposed yet. Hence, this study aims to construct a Japanese financial-specific LLM through continual pre-training. Before tuning, we constructed Japanese financial-focused datasets for continual pre-training. As a base model, we employed a Japanese LLM that achieved state-of-the-art performance on Japanese financial benchmarks among the 10-billion-class parameter models. After continual pre-training using the datasets and the base model, the tuned model performed better than the original model on the Japanese financial benchmarks. Moreover, the outputs comparison results reveal that the tuned model's outputs tend to be better than the original model's outputs in terms of the quality and length of the answers. These findings indicate that domain-specific continual pre-training is also effective for LLMs. The tuned model is publicly available on Hugging Face.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

A major challenge in structured prediction is to represent the interdependencies within output structures. When outputs are structured as sequences, linear-chain conditional random fields (CRFs) are a widely used model class which can learn local dependencies in the output. However, the CRF's Markov assumption makes it impossible for CRFs to represent distributions with nonlocal dependencies, and standard CRFs are unable to respect nonlocal constraints of the data (such as global arity constraints on output labels). We present a generalization of CRFs that can enforce a broad class of constraints, including nonlocal ones, by specifying the space of possible output structures as a regular language L. The resulting regular-constrained CRF (RegCCRF) has the same formal properties as a standard CRF, but assigns zero probability to all label sequences not in L. Notably, RegCCRFs can incorporate their constraints during training, while related models only enforce constraints during decoding. We prove that constrained training is never worse than constrained decoding, and show empirically that it can be substantially better in practice. Additionally, we demonstrate a practical benefit on downstream tasks by incorporating a RegCCRF into a deep neural model for semantic role labeling, exceeding state-of-the-art results on a standard dataset.

Existing large language models (LLMs) can only afford fix-sized inputs due to the input length limit, preventing them from utilizing rich long-context information from past inputs. To address this, we propose a framework, Language Models Augmented with Long-Term Memory (LongMem), which enables LLMs to memorize long history. We design a novel decoupled network architecture with the original backbone LLM frozen as a memory encoder and an adaptive residual side-network as a memory retriever and reader. Such a decoupled memory design can easily cache and update long-term past contexts for memory retrieval without suffering from memory staleness. Enhanced with memory-augmented adaptation training, LongMem can thus memorize long past context and use long-term memory for language modeling. The proposed memory retrieval module can handle unlimited-length context in its memory bank to benefit various downstream tasks. Typically, LongMem can enlarge the long-form memory to 65k tokens and thus cache many-shot extra demonstration examples as long-form memory for in-context learning. Experiments show that our method outperforms strong long-context models on ChapterBreak, a challenging long-context modeling benchmark, and achieves remarkable improvements on memory-augmented in-context learning over LLMs. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in helping language models to memorize and utilize long-form contents. Our code is open-sourced at https://aka.ms/LongMem.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, and availability of high-performance hardware has made it possible to process and analyze high volume stock market time series data effectively, in real-time. Among many other important characteristics and behavior of such data, forecasting is an area which has witnessed considerable focus. In this work, we have used time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the trend, the seasonal component, and the random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed five approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed decomposition approaches of time series and the efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a random component and a sharply changing trend component in the time-series.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for automatic time series analysis and reporting, which is a critical task across many domains, spanning healthcare, finance, climate, energy, and many more. In this paper, we propose a framework for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of LLMs on time series understanding, encompassing both univariate and multivariate forms. We introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of time series features, a critical framework that delineates various characteristics inherent in time series data. Leveraging this taxonomy, we have systematically designed and synthesized a diverse dataset of time series, embodying the different outlined features. This dataset acts as a solid foundation for assessing the proficiency of LLMs in comprehending time series. Our experiments shed light on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art LLMs in time series understanding, revealing which features these models readily comprehend effectively and where they falter. In addition, we uncover the sensitivity of LLMs to factors including the formatting of the data, the position of points queried within a series and the overall time series length.

For long document summarization, discourse structure is important to discern the key content of the text and the differences in importance level between sentences. Unfortunately, the integration of rhetorical structure theory (RST) into parameter-efficient fine-tuning strategies for long document summarization remains unexplored. Therefore, this paper introduces RST-LoRA and proposes four RST-aware variants to explicitly incorporate RST into the LoRA model. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that incorporating the type and uncertainty of rhetorical relations can complementarily enhance the performance of LoRA in summarization tasks. Furthermore, the best-performing variant we introduced outperforms the vanilla LoRA and full-parameter fine-tuning models, as confirmed by multiple automatic and human evaluations, and even surpasses previous state-of-the-art methods.

As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in a lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize energy infrastructure for a European energy system designed for net-zero CO_2 emissions in 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the capacity layouts and simulate their operation in every weather year, to evaluate resource adequacy and CO_2 emissions abatement. We show that interannual weather variability causes variation of pm10\% in total system cost. The most expensive capacity layout obtains the lowest net CO_2 emissions but not the highest resource adequacy. Instead, capacity layouts designed with years including compound weather events result in a more robust and cost-effective design. Deploying CO_2-emitting backup generation is a cost-effective robustness measure, which only increase CO_2 emissions marginally as the average CO_2 emissions remain less than 1\% of 1990 levels. Our findings highlight how extreme weather years drive investments in robustness measures, making them compatible with all weather conditions within six decades of historical weather data.

Using a set of LambdaCDM simulations of cosmic structure formation, we study the evolving connectivity and changing topological structure of the cosmic web using state-of-the-art tools of multiscale topological data analysis (TDA). We follow the development of the cosmic web topology in terms of the evolution of Betti number curves and feature persistence diagrams of the three (topological) classes of structural features: matter concentrations, filaments and tunnels, and voids. The Betti curves specify the prominence of features as a function of density level, and their evolution with cosmic epoch reflects the changing network connections between these structural features. The persistence diagrams quantify the longevity and stability of topological features. In this study we establish, for the first time, the link between persistence diagrams, the features they show, and the gravitationally driven cosmic structure formation process. By following the diagrams' development over cosmic time, the link between the multiscale topology of the cosmic web and the hierarchical buildup of cosmic structure is established. The sharp apexes in the diagrams are intimately related to key transitions in the structure formation process. The apex in the matter concentration diagrams coincides with the density level at which, typically, they detach from the Hubble expansion and begin to collapse. At that level many individual islands merge to form the network of the cosmic web and a large number of filaments and tunnels emerge to establish its connecting bridges. The location trends of the apex possess a self-similar character that can be related to the cosmic web's hierarchical buildup. We find that persistence diagrams provide a significantly higher and more profound level of information on the structure formation process than more global summary statistics like Euler characteristic or Betti numbers.

Long-form article generation (LFAG) presents challenges such as maintaining logical consistency, comprehensive topic coverage, and narrative coherence across extended articles. Existing datasets often lack both the hierarchical structure and fine-grained annotation needed to effectively decompose tasks, resulting in shallow, disorganized article generation. To address these limitations, we introduce DeFine, a Decomposed and Fine-grained annotated dataset for long-form article generation. DeFine is characterized by its hierarchical decomposition strategy and the integration of domain-specific knowledge with multi-level annotations, ensuring granular control and enhanced depth in article generation. To construct the dataset, a multi-agent collaborative pipeline is proposed, which systematically segments the generation process into four parts: Data Miner, Cite Retreiver, Q&A Annotator and Data Cleaner. To validate the effectiveness of DeFine, we designed and tested three LFAG baselines: the web retrieval, the local retrieval, and the grounded reference. We fine-tuned the Qwen2-7b-Instruct model using the DeFine training dataset. The experimental results showed significant improvements in text quality, specifically in topic coverage, depth of information, and content fidelity. Our dataset publicly available to facilitate future research.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

Deep learning has been actively applied to time series forecasting, leading to a deluge of new methods, belonging to the class of historical-value models. Yet, despite the attractive properties of time-index models, such as being able to model the continuous nature of underlying time series dynamics, little attention has been given to them. Indeed, while naive deep time-index models are far more expressive than the manually predefined function representations of classical time-index models, they are inadequate for forecasting, being unable to generalize to unseen time steps due to the lack of inductive bias. In this paper, we propose DeepTime, a meta-optimization framework to learn deep time-index models which overcome these limitations, yielding an efficient and accurate forecasting model. Extensive experiments on real world datasets in the long sequence time-series forecasting setting demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTime.

Modeling long range dependencies in sequential data is a fundamental step towards attaining human-level performance in many modalities such as text, vision, audio and video. While attention-based models are a popular and effective choice in modeling short-range interactions, their performance on tasks requiring long range reasoning has been largely inadequate. In an exciting result, Gu et al. (ICLR 2022) proposed the Structured State Space (S4) architecture delivering large gains over state-of-the-art models on several long-range tasks across various modalities. The core proposition of S4 is the parameterization of state matrices via a diagonal plus low rank structure, allowing efficient computation. In this work, we show that one can match the performance of S4 even without the low rank correction and thus assuming the state matrices to be diagonal. Our Diagonal State Space (DSS) model matches the performance of S4 on Long Range Arena tasks, speech classification on Speech Commands dataset, while being conceptually simpler and straightforward to implement.

Though current long-context large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capacities in answering user questions based on extensive text, the lack of citations in their responses makes user verification difficult, leading to concerns about their trustworthiness due to their potential hallucinations. In this work, we aim to enable long-context LLMs to generate responses with fine-grained sentence-level citations, improving their faithfulness and verifiability. We first introduce LongBench-Cite, an automated benchmark for assessing current LLMs' performance in Long-Context Question Answering with Citations (LQAC), revealing considerable room for improvement. To this end, we propose CoF (Coarse to Fine), a novel pipeline that utilizes off-the-shelf LLMs to automatically generate long-context QA instances with precise sentence-level citations, and leverage this pipeline to construct LongCite-45k, a large-scale SFT dataset for LQAC. Finally, we train LongCite-8B and LongCite-9B using the LongCite-45k dataset, successfully enabling their generation of accurate responses and fine-grained sentence-level citations in a single output. The evaluation results on LongBench-Cite show that our trained models achieve state-of-the-art citation quality, surpassing advanced proprietary models including GPT-4o.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

As the applications of large language models (LLMs) expand across diverse fields, the ability of these models to adapt to ongoing changes in data, tasks, and user preferences becomes crucial. Traditional training methods, relying on static datasets, are increasingly inadequate for coping with the dynamic nature of real-world information. Lifelong learning, also known as continual or incremental learning, addresses this challenge by enabling LLMs to learn continuously and adaptively over their operational lifetime, integrating new knowledge while retaining previously learned information and preventing catastrophic forgetting. This survey delves into the sophisticated landscape of lifelong learning, categorizing strategies into two primary groups: Internal Knowledge and External Knowledge. Internal Knowledge includes continual pretraining and continual finetuning, each enhancing the adaptability of LLMs in various scenarios. External Knowledge encompasses retrieval-based and tool-based lifelong learning, leveraging external data sources and computational tools to extend the model's capabilities without modifying core parameters. The key contributions of our survey are: (1) Introducing a novel taxonomy categorizing the extensive literature of lifelong learning into 12 scenarios; (2) Identifying common techniques across all lifelong learning scenarios and classifying existing literature into various technique groups within each scenario; (3) Highlighting emerging techniques such as model expansion and data selection, which were less explored in the pre-LLM era. Through a detailed examination of these groups and their respective categories, this survey aims to enhance the adaptability, reliability, and overall performance of LLMs in real-world applications.

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

The quality of training data are crucial for enhancing the long-text capabilities of foundation models. Despite existing efforts to refine data quality through heuristic rules and evaluations based on data diversity and difficulty, there's a lack of systematic approaches specifically tailored for assessing long texts. Addressing this gap, our work systematically measures the quality of long texts by evaluating three fundamental linguistic dimensions: coherence, cohesion, and complexity. Drawing inspiration from the aforementioned three dimensions, we introduce a suite of metrics designed to evaluate the quality of long texts, encompassing both statistical and pre-trained language model-based ones. Leveraging these metrics, we present LongWanjuan, a bilingual dataset specifically tailored to enhance the training of language models for long-text tasks with over 160B tokens. In LongWanjuan, we categorize long texts into holistic, aggregated, and chaotic types, enabling a detailed analysis of long-text quality. Furthermore, we devise a data mixture recipe that strategically balances different types of long texts within LongWanjuan, leading to significant improvements in model performance on long-text tasks. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/OpenLMLab/LongWanjuan.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

Modeling long-range dependencies across sequences is a longstanding goal in machine learning and has led to architectures, such as state space models, that dramatically outperform Transformers on long sequences. However, these impressive empirical gains have been by and large demonstrated on benchmarks (e.g. Long Range Arena), where models are randomly initialized and trained to predict a target label from an input sequence. In this work, we show that random initialization leads to gross overestimation of the differences between architectures and that pretraining with standard denoising objectives, using only the downstream task data, leads to dramatic gains across multiple architectures and to very small gaps between Transformers and state space models (SSMs). In stark contrast to prior works, we find vanilla Transformers to match the performance of S4 on Long Range Arena when properly pretrained, and we improve the best reported results of SSMs on the PathX-256 task by 20 absolute points. Subsequently, we analyze the utility of previously-proposed structured parameterizations for SSMs and show they become mostly redundant in the presence of data-driven initialization obtained through pretraining. Our work shows that, when evaluating different architectures on supervised tasks, incorporation of data-driven priors via pretraining is essential for reliable performance estimation, and can be done efficiently.