Daily Papers

To achieve seamless collaboration between robots and humans in a shared environment, accurately predicting future human movements is essential. Human motion prediction has traditionally been approached as a sequence prediction problem, leveraging historical human motion data to estimate future poses. Beginning with vanilla recurrent networks, the research community has investigated a variety of methods for learning human motion dynamics, encompassing graph-based and generative approaches. Despite these efforts, achieving accurate long-term predictions continues to be a significant challenge. In this regard, we present the Adversarial Motion Transformer (AdvMT), a novel model that integrates a transformer-based motion encoder and a temporal continuity discriminator. This combination effectively captures spatial and temporal dependencies simultaneously within frames. With adversarial training, our method effectively reduces the unwanted artifacts in predictions, thereby ensuring the learning of more realistic and fluid human motions. The evaluation results indicate that AdvMT greatly enhances the accuracy of long-term predictions while also delivering robust short-term predictions

Effective traffic prediction is a cornerstone of intelligent transportation systems, enabling precise forecasts of traffic flow, speed, and congestion. While traditional spatio-temporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) have achieved notable success in short-term traffic forecasting, their performance in long-term predictions remains limited. This challenge arises from over-squashing problem, where bottlenecks and limited receptive fields restrict information flow and hinder the modeling of global dependencies. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel framework that incorporates virtual nodes, which are additional nodes added to the graph and connected to existing nodes, in order to aggregate information across the entire graph within a single GNN layer. Our proposed model incorporates virtual nodes by constructing a semi-adaptive adjacency matrix. This matrix integrates distance-based and adaptive adjacency matrices, allowing the model to leverage geographical information while also learning task-specific features from data. Experimental results demonstrate that the inclusion of virtual nodes significantly enhances long-term prediction accuracy while also improving layer-wise sensitivity to mitigate the over-squashing problem. Virtual nodes also offer enhanced explainability by focusing on key intersections and high-traffic areas, as shown by the visualization of their adjacency matrix weights on road network heat maps. Our advanced approach enhances the understanding and management of urban traffic systems, making it particularly well-suited for real-world applications.

Transformer neural operators have recently become an effective approach for surrogate modeling of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this paper, we introduce a modified implicit factorized transformer (IFactFormer-m) model which replaces the original chained factorized attention with parallel factorized attention. The IFactFormer-m model successfully performs long-term predictions for turbulent channel flow, whereas the original IFactFormer (IFactFormer-o), Fourier neural operator (FNO), and implicit Fourier neural operator (IFNO) exhibit a poor performance. Turbulent channel flows are simulated by direct numerical simulation using fine grids at friction Reynolds numbers Re_{tau}approx 180,395,590, and filtered to coarse grids for training neural operator. The neural operator takes the current flow field as input and predicts the flow field at the next time step, and long-term prediction is achieved in the posterior through an autoregressive approach. The results show that IFactFormer-m, compared to other neural operators and the traditional large eddy simulation (LES) methods including dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM) and the wall-adapted local eddy-viscosity (WALE) model, reduces prediction errors in the short term, and achieves stable and accurate long-term prediction of various statistical properties and flow structures, including the energy spectrum, mean streamwise velocity, root mean square (rms) values of fluctuating velocities, Reynolds shear stress, and spatial structures of instantaneous velocity. Moreover, the trained IFactFormer-m is much faster than traditional LES methods. By analyzing the attention kernels, we elucidate the reasons why IFactFormer-m converges faster and achieves a stable and accurate long-term prediction compared to IFactFormer-o. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/huiyu-2002/IFactFormer-m.

Realistic simulation is critical for applications ranging from robotics to animation. Traditional analytic simulators sometimes struggle to capture sufficiently realistic simulation which can lead to problems including the well known "sim-to-real" gap in robotics. Learned simulators have emerged as an alternative for better capturing real-world physical dynamics, but require access to privileged ground truth physics information such as precise object geometry or particle tracks. Here we propose a method for learning simulators directly from observations. Visual Particle Dynamics (VPD) jointly learns a latent particle-based representation of 3D scenes, a neural simulator of the latent particle dynamics, and a renderer that can produce images of the scene from arbitrary views. VPD learns end to end from posed RGB-D videos and does not require access to privileged information. Unlike existing 2D video prediction models, we show that VPD's 3D structure enables scene editing and long-term predictions. These results pave the way for downstream applications ranging from video editing to robotic planning.

Partial Differential Equations are foundational in modeling science and natural systems such as fluid dynamics and weather forecasting. The Latent Evolution of PDEs method is designed to address the computational intensity of classical and deep learning-based PDE solvers by proposing a scalable and efficient alternative. To enhance the efficiency and accuracy of LE-PDE, we incorporate the Mamba model, an advanced machine learning model known for its predictive efficiency and robustness in handling complex dynamic systems with a progressive learning strategy. The LE-PDE was tested on several benchmark problems. The method demonstrated a marked reduction in computational time compared to traditional solvers and standalone deep learning models while maintaining high accuracy in predicting system behavior over time. Our method doubles the inference speed compared to the LE-PDE while retaining the same level of parameter efficiency, making it well-suited for scenarios requiring long-term predictions.

This paper addresses a novel task of anticipating 3D human-object interactions (HOIs). Most existing research on HOI synthesis lacks comprehensive whole-body interactions with dynamic objects, e.g., often limited to manipulating small or static objects. Our task is significantly more challenging, as it requires modeling dynamic objects with various shapes, capturing whole-body motion, and ensuring physically valid interactions. To this end, we propose InterDiff, a framework comprising two key steps: (i) interaction diffusion, where we leverage a diffusion model to encode the distribution of future human-object interactions; (ii) interaction correction, where we introduce a physics-informed predictor to correct denoised HOIs in a diffusion step. Our key insight is to inject prior knowledge that the interactions under reference with respect to contact points follow a simple pattern and are easily predictable. Experiments on multiple human-object interaction datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for this task, capable of producing realistic, vivid, and remarkably long-term 3D HOI predictions.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

In the landscape of Recommender System (RS) applications, reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a powerful tool, primarily due to its proficiency in optimizing long-term rewards. Nevertheless, it suffers from instability in the learning process, stemming from the intricate interactions among bootstrapping, off-policy training, and function approximation. Moreover, in multi-reward recommendation scenarios, designing a proper reward setting that reconciles the inner dynamics of various tasks is quite intricate. In response to these challenges, we introduce DT4IER, an advanced decision transformer-based recommendation model that is engineered to not only elevate the effectiveness of recommendations but also to achieve a harmonious balance between immediate user engagement and long-term retention. The DT4IER applies an innovative multi-reward design that adeptly balances short and long-term rewards with user-specific attributes, which serve to enhance the contextual richness of the reward sequence ensuring a more informed and personalized recommendation process. To enhance its predictive capabilities, DT4IER incorporates a high-dimensional encoder, skillfully designed to identify and leverage the intricate interrelations across diverse tasks. Furthermore, we integrate a contrastive learning approach within the action embedding predictions, a strategy that significantly boosts the model's overall performance. Experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DT4IER against state-of-the-art Sequential Recommender Systems (SRSs) and Multi-Task Learning (MTL) models in terms of both prediction accuracy and effectiveness in specific tasks. The source code is accessible online to facilitate replication

Precise crop yield predictions are of national importance for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural practices. While AI-for-science approaches have exhibited promising achievements in solving many scientific problems such as drug discovery, precipitation nowcasting, etc., the development of deep learning models for predicting crop yields is constantly hindered by the lack of an open and large-scale deep learning-ready dataset with multiple modalities to accommodate sufficient information. To remedy this, we introduce the CropNet dataset, the first terabyte-sized, publicly available, and multi-modal dataset specifically targeting climate change-aware crop yield predictions for the contiguous United States (U.S.) continent at the county level. Our CropNet dataset is composed of three modalities of data, i.e., Sentinel-2 Imagery, WRF-HRRR Computed Dataset, and USDA Crop Dataset, for over 2200 U.S. counties spanning 6 years (2017-2022), expected to facilitate researchers in developing versatile deep learning models for timely and precisely predicting crop yields at the county-level, by accounting for the effects of both short-term growing season weather variations and long-term climate change on crop yields. Besides, we develop the CropNet package, offering three types of APIs, for facilitating researchers in downloading the CropNet data on the fly over the time and region of interest, and flexibly building their deep learning models for accurate crop yield predictions. Extensive experiments have been conducted on our CropNet dataset via employing various types of deep learning solutions, with the results validating the general applicability and the efficacy of the CropNet dataset in climate change-aware crop yield predictions.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

Deep neural networks have become increasingly of interest in dynamical system prediction, but out-of-distribution generalization and long-term stability still remains challenging. In this work, we treat the domain parameters of dynamical systems as factors of variation of the data generating process. By leveraging ideas from supervised disentanglement and causal factorization, we aim to separate the domain parameters from the dynamics in the latent space of generative models. In our experiments we model dynamics both in phase space and in video sequences and conduct rigorous OOD evaluations. Results indicate that disentangled VAEs adapt better to domain parameters spaces that were not present in the training data. At the same time, disentanglement can improve the long-term and out-of-distribution predictions of state-of-the-art models in video sequences.

In this paper, we propose ProTracker, a novel framework for robust and accurate long-term dense tracking of arbitrary points in videos. The key idea of our method is incorporating probabilistic integration to refine multiple predictions from both optical flow and semantic features for robust short-term and long-term tracking. Specifically, we integrate optical flow estimations in a probabilistic manner, producing smooth and accurate trajectories by maximizing the likelihood of each prediction. To effectively re-localize challenging points that disappear and reappear due to occlusion, we further incorporate long-term feature correspondence into our flow predictions for continuous trajectory generation. Extensive experiments show that ProTracker achieves the state-of-the-art performance among unsupervised and self-supervised approaches, and even outperforms supervised methods on several benchmarks. Our code and model will be publicly available upon publication.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Dynamics prediction, which is the problem of predicting future states of scene objects based on current and prior states, is drawing increasing attention as an instance of learning physics. To solve this problem, Region Proposal Convolutional Interaction Network (RPCIN), a vision-based model, was proposed and achieved state-of-the-art performance in long-term prediction. RPCIN only takes raw images and simple object descriptions, such as the bounding box and segmentation mask of each object, as input. However, despite its success, the model's capability can be compromised under conditions of environment misalignment. In this paper, we investigate two challenging conditions for environment misalignment: Cross-Domain and Cross-Context by proposing four datasets that are designed for these challenges: SimB-Border, SimB-Split, BlenB-Border, and BlenB-Split. The datasets cover two domains and two contexts. Using RPCIN as a probe, experiments conducted on the combinations of the proposed datasets reveal potential weaknesses of the vision-based long-term dynamics prediction model. Furthermore, we propose a promising direction to mitigate the Cross-Domain challenge and provide concrete evidence supporting such a direction, which provides dramatic alleviation of the challenge on the proposed datasets.

We present XMem, a video object segmentation architecture for long videos with unified feature memory stores inspired by the Atkinson-Shiffrin memory model. Prior work on video object segmentation typically only uses one type of feature memory. For videos longer than a minute, a single feature memory model tightly links memory consumption and accuracy. In contrast, following the Atkinson-Shiffrin model, we develop an architecture that incorporates multiple independent yet deeply-connected feature memory stores: a rapidly updated sensory memory, a high-resolution working memory, and a compact thus sustained long-term memory. Crucially, we develop a memory potentiation algorithm that routinely consolidates actively used working memory elements into the long-term memory, which avoids memory explosion and minimizes performance decay for long-term prediction. Combined with a new memory reading mechanism, XMem greatly exceeds state-of-the-art performance on long-video datasets while being on par with state-of-the-art methods (that do not work on long videos) on short-video datasets. Code is available at https://hkchengrex.github.io/XMem

We present a novel approach for traffic forecasting in urban traffic scenarios using a combination of spectral graph analysis and deep learning. We predict both the low-level information (future trajectories) as well as the high-level information (road-agent behavior) from the extracted trajectory of each road-agent. Our formulation represents the proximity between the road agents using a weighted dynamic geometric graph (DGG). We use a two-stream graph-LSTM network to perform traffic forecasting using these weighted DGGs. The first stream predicts the spatial coordinates of road-agents, while the second stream predicts whether a road-agent is going to exhibit overspeeding, underspeeding, or neutral behavior by modeling spatial interactions between road-agents. Additionally, we propose a new regularization algorithm based on spectral clustering to reduce the error margin in long-term prediction (3-5 seconds) and improve the accuracy of the predicted trajectories. Moreover, we prove a theoretical upper bound on the regularized prediction error. We evaluate our approach on the Argoverse, Lyft, Apolloscape, and NGSIM datasets and highlight the benefits over prior trajectory prediction methods. In practice, our approach reduces the average prediction error by approximately 75% over prior algorithms and achieves a weighted average accuracy of 91.2% for behavior prediction. Additionally, our spectral regularization improves long-term prediction by up to 70%.

Rich user behavior data has been proven to be of great value for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction applications, especially in industrial recommender, search, or advertising systems. However, it's non-trivial for real-world systems to make full use of long-term user behaviors due to the strict requirements of online serving time. Most previous works adopt the retrieval-based strategy, where a small number of user behaviors are retrieved first for subsequent attention. However, the retrieval-based methods are sub-optimal and would cause more or less information losses, and it's difficult to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of the retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we propose SDIM (Sampling-based Deep Interest Modeling), a simple yet effective sampling-based end-to-end approach for modeling long-term user behaviors. We sample from multiple hash functions to generate hash signatures of the candidate item and each item in the user behavior sequence, and obtain the user interest by directly gathering behavior items associated with the candidate item with the same hash signature. We show theoretically and experimentally that the proposed method performs on par with standard attention-based models on modeling long-term user behaviors, while being sizable times faster. We also introduce the deployment of SDIM in our system. Specifically, we decouple the behavior sequence hashing, which is the most time-consuming part, from the CTR model by designing a separate module named BSE (behavior Sequence Encoding). BSE is latency-free for the CTR server, enabling us to model extremely long user behaviors. Both offline and online experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of SDIM. SDIM now has been deployed online in the search system of Meituan APP.

Human pose forecasting garners attention for its diverse applications. However, challenges in modeling the multi-modal nature of human motion and intricate interactions among agents persist, particularly with longer timescales and more agents. In this paper, we propose an interaction-aware trajectory-conditioned long-term multi-agent human pose forecasting model, utilizing a coarse-to-fine prediction approach: multi-modal global trajectories are initially forecasted, followed by respective local pose forecasts conditioned on each mode. In doing so, our Trajectory2Pose model introduces a graph-based agent-wise interaction module for a reciprocal forecast of local motion-conditioned global trajectory and trajectory-conditioned local pose. Our model effectively handles the multi-modality of human motion and the complexity of long-term multi-agent interactions, improving performance in complex environments. Furthermore, we address the lack of long-term (6s+) multi-agent (5+) datasets by constructing a new dataset from real-world images and 2D annotations, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed model. State-of-the-art prediction performance on both complex and simpler datasets confirms the generalized effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/Jaewoo97/T2P.

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture multi-scale periodic patterns, reduce sequence dependencies, and naturally denoise signals. However, existing approaches typically train model components for all frequencies under a unified training objective, often leading to mismatched learning speeds: high-frequency components converge faster and risk overfitting, while low-frequency components underfit due to insufficient training time. To deal with this challenge, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the training status for each frequency and adaptively adjusts their gradient updates. By recognizing convergence, overfitting, or underfitting for each frequency, BEAT dynamically reallocates learning priorities, moderating gradients for rapid learners and increasing those for slower ones, alleviating the tension between competing objectives across frequencies and synchronizing the overall learning process. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that BEAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Long-term activity forecasting is an especially challenging research problem because it requires understanding the temporal relationships between observed actions, as well as the variability and complexity of human activities. Despite relying on strong supervision via expensive human annotations, state-of-the-art forecasting approaches often generalize poorly to unseen data. To alleviate this issue, we propose Multiscale Video Pretraining (MVP), a novel self-supervised pretraining approach that learns robust representations for forecasting by learning to predict contextualized representations of future video clips over multiple timescales. MVP is based on our observation that actions in videos have a multiscale nature, where atomic actions typically occur at a short timescale and more complex actions may span longer timescales. We compare MVP to state-of-the-art self-supervised video learning approaches on downstream long-term forecasting tasks including long-term action anticipation and video summary prediction. Our comprehensive experiments across the Ego4D and Epic-Kitchens-55/100 datasets demonstrate that MVP out-performs state-of-the-art methods by significant margins. Notably, MVP obtains a relative performance gain of over 20% accuracy in video summary forecasting over existing methods.

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is one of the common environmental problems in the coal mining industry that was formed by the oxidation of sulfide minerals in the overburden or waste rock. The prediction of acid generation through AMD is important to do in overburden management and planning the post-mining land use. One of the methods used to predict AMD is a lab-scale kinetic test to determine the rate of acid formation over time using representative samples in the field. However, this test requires a long-time procedure and large amount of chemical reagents lead to inefficient cost. On the other hand, there is potential for machine learning to learn the pattern behind the lab-scale kinetic test data. This study describes an approach to use artificial neural network (ANN) modeling to predict the result from lab-scale kinetic tests. Various ANN model is used based on 83 weeks experiments of lab-scale kinetic tests with 100\% potential acid-forming rock. The model approaches the monitoring of pH, ORP, conductivity, TDS, sulfate, and heavy metals (Fe and Mn). The overall Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) obtained in this study was 0.99 on training and validation data, indicating a strong correlation and accurate prediction compared to the actual lab-scale kinetic tests data. This show the ANN ability to learn patterns, trends, and seasonality from past data for accurate forecasting, thereby highlighting its significant contribution to solving AMD problems. This research is also expected to establish the foundation for a new approach to predict AMD, with time efficient, accurate, and cost-effectiveness in future applications.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

Long-term temporal fusion is a crucial but often overlooked technique in camera-based Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) 3D perception. Existing methods are mostly in a parallel manner. While parallel fusion can benefit from long-term information, it suffers from increasing computational and memory overheads as the fusion window size grows. Alternatively, BEVFormer adopts a recurrent fusion pipeline so that history information can be efficiently integrated, yet it fails to benefit from longer temporal frames. In this paper, we explore an embarrassingly simple long-term recurrent fusion strategy built upon the LSS-based methods and find it already able to enjoy the merits from both sides, i.e., rich long-term information and efficient fusion pipeline. A temporal embedding module is further proposed to improve the model's robustness against occasionally missed frames in practical scenarios. We name this simple but effective fusing pipeline VideoBEV. Experimental results on the nuScenes benchmark show that VideoBEV obtains leading performance on various camera-based 3D perception tasks, including object detection (55.4% mAP and 62.9% NDS), segmentation (48.6% vehicle mIoU), tracking (54.8% AMOTA), and motion prediction (0.80m minADE and 0.463 EPA). Code will be available.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

We introduce Robust Exploration via Clustering-based Online Density Estimation (RECODE), a non-parametric method for novelty-based exploration that estimates visitation counts for clusters of states based on their similarity in a chosen embedding space. By adapting classical clustering to the nonstationary setting of Deep RL, RECODE can efficiently track state visitation counts over thousands of episodes. We further propose a novel generalization of the inverse dynamics loss, which leverages masked transformer architectures for multi-step prediction; which in conjunction with RECODE achieves a new state-of-the-art in a suite of challenging 3D-exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8. RECODE also sets new state-of-the-art in hard exploration Atari games, and is the first agent to reach the end screen in "Pitfall!".

In this paper, we propose a new paradigm, named Historical Object Prediction (HoP) for multi-view 3D detection to leverage temporal information more effectively. The HoP approach is straightforward: given the current timestamp t, we generate a pseudo Bird's-Eye View (BEV) feature of timestamp t-k from its adjacent frames and utilize this feature to predict the object set at timestamp t-k. Our approach is motivated by the observation that enforcing the detector to capture both the spatial location and temporal motion of objects occurring at historical timestamps can lead to more accurate BEV feature learning. First, we elaborately design short-term and long-term temporal decoders, which can generate the pseudo BEV feature for timestamp t-k without the involvement of its corresponding camera images. Second, an additional object decoder is flexibly attached to predict the object targets using the generated pseudo BEV feature. Note that we only perform HoP during training, thus the proposed method does not introduce extra overheads during inference. As a plug-and-play approach, HoP can be easily incorporated into state-of-the-art BEV detection frameworks, including BEVFormer and BEVDet series. Furthermore, the auxiliary HoP approach is complementary to prevalent temporal modeling methods, leading to significant performance gains. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed HoP on the nuScenes dataset. We choose the representative methods, including BEVFormer and BEVDet4D-Depth to evaluate our method. Surprisingly, HoP achieves 68.5% NDS and 62.4% mAP with ViT-L on nuScenes test, outperforming all the 3D object detectors on the leaderboard. Codes will be available at https://github.com/Sense-X/HoP.

Despite their remarkable success in language modeling, transformers trained to predict the next token in a sequence struggle with long-term planning. This limitation is particularly evident in tasks requiring foresight to plan multiple steps ahead such as maze navigation. The standard next single token prediction objective, however, offers no explicit mechanism to predict multiple steps ahead - or revisit the path taken so far. Consequently, in this work we study whether explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead (and backwards) can improve transformers' maze navigation. We train parameter-matched transformers from scratch, under identical settings, to navigate mazes of varying types and sizes with standard next token prediction and MLM-U, an objective explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead and backwards. We find that MLM-U considerably improves transformers' ability to navigate mazes compared to standard next token prediction across maze types and complexities. We also find MLM-U training is 4x more sample efficient and converges 2x faster in terms of GPU training hours relative to next token training. Finally, for more complex mazes we find MLM-U benefits from scaling to larger transformers. Remarkably, we find transformers trained with MLM-U outperform larger transformers trained with next token prediction using additional supervision from A* search traces. We hope these findings underscore the promise of learning objectives to advance transformers' capacity for long-term planning.

Stock markets play an important role in the global economy, where accurate stock price predictions can lead to significant financial returns. While existing transformer-based models have outperformed long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks in financial time series prediction, their high computational complexity and memory requirements limit their practicality for real-time trading and long-sequence data processing. To address these challenges, we propose SAMBA, an innovative framework for stock return prediction that builds on the Mamba architecture and integrates graph neural networks. SAMBA achieves near-linear computational complexity by utilizing a bidirectional Mamba block to capture long-term dependencies in historical price data and employing adaptive graph convolution to model dependencies between daily stock features. Our experimental results demonstrate that SAMBA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models in prediction accuracy, maintaining low computational complexity. The code and datasets are available at github.com/Ali-Meh619/SAMBA.

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 100 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 90% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources. Without fine-tuning, ACE can stably generalize to a previously unseen historical sea surface temperature dataset.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

Discontinuing ad creatives at an appropriate time is one of the most important ad operations that can have a significant impact on sales. Such operational support for ineffective ads has been less explored than that for effective ads. After pre-analyzing 1,000,000 real-world ad creatives, we found that there are two types of discontinuation: short-term (i.e., cut-out) and long-term (i.e., wear-out). In this paper, we propose a practical prediction framework for the discontinuation of ad creatives with a hazard function-based loss function inspired by survival analysis. Our framework predicts the discontinuations with a multi-modal deep neural network that takes as input the ad creative (e.g., text, categorical, image, numerical features). To improve the prediction performance for the two different types of discontinuations and for the ad creatives that contribute to sales, we introduce two new techniques: (1) a two-term estimation technique with multi-task learning and (2) a click-through rate-weighting technique for the loss function. We evaluated our framework using the large-scale ad creative dataset, including 10 billion scale impressions. In terms of the concordance index (short: 0.896, long: 0.939, and overall: 0.792), our framework achieved significantly better performance than the conventional method (0.531). Additionally, we confirmed that our framework (i) demonstrated the same degree of discontinuation effect as manual operations for short-term cases, and (ii) accurately predicted the ad discontinuation order, which is important for long-running ad creatives for long-term cases.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on stock price prediction, leveragingadvanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to improve financial forecasting accuracy. The research evaluates the performance of various recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and attention-based models. These models are assessed for their ability to capture complex temporal dependencies inherent in stock market data. Our findings show that attention-based models outperform other architectures, achieving the highest accuracy by capturing both short and long-term dependencies. This study contributes valuable insights into AI-driven financial forecasting, offering practical guidance for developing more accurate and efficient trading systems.

Epilepsy is a common disease of the nervous system. Timely prediction of seizures and intervention treatment can significantly reduce the accidental injury of patients and protect the life and health of patients. This paper presents a neuromorphic Spiking Convolutional Transformer, named Spiking Conformer, to detect and predict epileptic seizure segments from scalped long-term electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings. We report evaluation results from the Spiking Conformer model using the Boston Children's Hospital-MIT (CHB-MIT) EEG dataset. By leveraging spike-based addition operations, the Spiking Conformer significantly reduces the classification computational cost compared to the non-spiking model. Additionally, we introduce an approximate spiking neuron layer to further reduce spike-triggered neuron updates by nearly 38% without sacrificing accuracy. Using raw EEG data as input, the proposed Spiking Conformer achieved an average sensitivity rate of 94.9% and a specificity rate of 99.3% for the seizure detection task, and 96.8%, 89.5% for the seizure prediction task, and needs >10x fewer operations compared to the non-spiking equivalent model.

Our research aims to find the best model that uses companies projections and sector performances and how the given company fares accordingly to correctly predict equity share prices for both short and long term goals.

The problem of predicting driver attention from the driving perspective is gaining increasing research focus due to its remarkable significance for autonomous driving and assisted driving systems. The driving experience is extremely important for safe driving,a skilled driver is able to effortlessly predict oncoming danger (before it becomes salient) based on the driving experience and quickly pay attention to the corresponding zones.However, the nonobjective driving experience is difficult to model, so a mechanism simulating the driver experience accumulation procedure is absent in existing methods, and the current methods usually follow the technique line of saliency prediction methods to predict driver attention. In this paper, we propose a FeedBack Loop Network (FBLNet), which attempts to model the driving experience accumulation procedure. By over-and-over iterations, FBLNet generates the incremental knowledge that carries rich historically-accumulative and long-term temporal information. The incremental knowledge in our model is like the driving experience of humans. Under the guidance of the incremental knowledge, our model fuses the CNN feature and Transformer feature that are extracted from the input image to predict driver attention. Our model exhibits a solid advantage over existing methods, achieving an outstanding performance improvement on two driver attention benchmark datasets.

Tuning-free long video diffusion has been proposed to generate extended-duration videos with enriched content by reusing the knowledge from pre-trained short video diffusion model without retraining. However, most works overlook the fine-grained long-term video consistency modeling, resulting in limited scene consistency (i.e., unreasonable object or background transitions), especially with multiple text inputs. To mitigate this, we propose the Consistency Noise Injection, dubbed CoNo, which introduces the "look-back" mechanism to enhance the fine-grained scene transition between different video clips, and designs the long-term consistency regularization to eliminate the content shifts when extending video contents through noise prediction. In particular, the "look-back" mechanism breaks the noise scheduling process into three essential parts, where one internal noise prediction part is injected into two video-extending parts, intending to achieve a fine-grained transition between two video clips. The long-term consistency regularization focuses on explicitly minimizing the pixel-wise distance between the predicted noises of the extended video clip and the original one, thereby preventing abrupt scene transitions. Extensive experiments have shown the effectiveness of the above strategies by performing long-video generation under both single- and multi-text prompt conditions. The project has been available in https://wxrui182.github.io/CoNo.github.io/.

Recent successes in autoregressive (AR) generation models, such as the GPT series in natural language processing, have motivated efforts to replicate this success in visual tasks. Some works attempt to extend this approach to autonomous driving by building video-based world models capable of generating realistic future video sequences and predicting ego states. However, prior works tend to produce unsatisfactory results, as the classic GPT framework is designed to handle 1D contextual information, such as text, and lacks the inherent ability to model the spatial and temporal dynamics essential for video generation. In this paper, we present DrivingWorld, a GPT-style world model for autonomous driving, featuring several spatial-temporal fusion mechanisms. This design enables effective modeling of both spatial and temporal dynamics, facilitating high-fidelity, long-duration video generation. Specifically, we propose a next-state prediction strategy to model temporal coherence between consecutive frames and apply a next-token prediction strategy to capture spatial information within each frame. To further enhance generalization ability, we propose a novel masking strategy and reweighting strategy for token prediction to mitigate long-term drifting issues and enable precise control. Our work demonstrates the ability to produce high-fidelity and consistent video clips of over 40 seconds in duration, which is over 2 times longer than state-of-the-art driving world models. Experiments show that, in contrast to prior works, our method achieves superior visual quality and significantly more accurate controllable future video generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/YvanYin/DrivingWorld.

We describe a new class of learning models called memory networks. Memory networks reason with inference components combined with a long-term memory component; they learn how to use these jointly. The long-term memory can be read and written to, with the goal of using it for prediction. We investigate these models in the context of question answering (QA) where the long-term memory effectively acts as a (dynamic) knowledge base, and the output is a textual response. We evaluate them on a large-scale QA task, and a smaller, but more complex, toy task generated from a simulated world. In the latter, we show the reasoning power of such models by chaining multiple supporting sentences to answer questions that require understanding the intension of verbs.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

In the post-AlphaGo era, there has been a renewed interest in search techniques such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), particularly in their application to Large Language Models (LLMs). This renewed attention is driven by the recognition that current next-token prediction models often lack the ability for long-term planning. Is it possible to instill search-like abilities within the models to enhance their planning abilities without relying on explicit search? We propose DiffuSearch , a model that does implicit search by looking into the future world via discrete diffusion modeling. We instantiate DiffuSearch on a classical board game, Chess, where explicit search is known to be essential. Through extensive controlled experiments, we show DiffuSearch outperforms both the searchless and explicit search-enhanced policies. Specifically, DiffuSearch outperforms the one-step policy by 19.2% and the MCTS-enhanced policy by 14% on action accuracy. Furthermore, DiffuSearch demonstrates a notable 30% enhancement in puzzle-solving abilities compared to explicit search-based policies, along with a significant 540 Elo increase in game-playing strength assessment. These results indicate that implicit search via discrete diffusion is a viable alternative to explicit search over a one-step policy. All codes are publicly available at https://github.com/HKUNLP/DiffuSearch{https://github.com/HKUNLP/DiffuSearch}.

Intra-operative recognition of surgical phases holds significant potential for enhancing real-time contextual awareness in the operating room. However, we argue that online recognition, while beneficial, primarily lends itself to post-operative video analysis due to its limited direct impact on the actual surgical decisions and actions during ongoing procedures. In contrast, we contend that the prediction and anticipation of surgical phases are inherently more valuable for intra-operative assistance, as they can meaningfully influence a surgeon's immediate and long-term planning by providing foresight into future steps. To address this gap, we propose a dual approach that simultaneously recognises the current surgical phase and predicts upcoming ones, thus offering comprehensive intra-operative assistance and guidance on the expected remaining workflow. Our novel method, Surgical Phase Recognition and Anticipation (SuPRA), leverages past and current information for accurate intra-operative phase recognition while using future segments for phase prediction. This unified approach challenges conventional frameworks that treat these objectives separately. We have validated SuPRA on two reputed datasets, Cholec80 and AutoLaparo21, where it demonstrated state-of-the-art performance with recognition accuracies of 91.8% and 79.3%, respectively. Additionally, we introduce and evaluate our model using new segment-level evaluation metrics, namely Edit and F1 Overlap scores, for a more temporal assessment of segment classification. In conclusion, SuPRA presents a new multi-task approach that paves the way for improved intra-operative assistance through surgical phase recognition and prediction of future events.

We propose DyGFormer, a new Transformer-based architecture for dynamic graph learning. DyGFormer is conceptually simple and only needs to learn from nodes' historical first-hop interactions by: (1) a neighbor co-occurrence encoding scheme that explores the correlations of the source node and destination node based on their historical sequences; (2) a patching technique that divides each sequence into multiple patches and feeds them to Transformer, allowing the model to effectively and efficiently benefit from longer histories. We also introduce DyGLib, a unified library with standard training pipelines, extensible coding interfaces, and comprehensive evaluating protocols to promote reproducible, scalable, and credible dynamic graph learning research. By performing exhaustive experiments on thirteen datasets for dynamic link prediction and dynamic node classification tasks, we find that DyGFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance on most of the datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing nodes' correlations and long-term temporal dependencies. Moreover, some results of baselines are inconsistent with previous reports, which may be caused by their diverse but less rigorous implementations, showing the importance of DyGLib. All the used resources are publicly available at https://github.com/yule-BUAA/DyGLib.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce the General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation, GIFT-Eval, a pioneering benchmark aimed at promoting evaluation across diverse datasets. GIFT-Eval encompasses 28 datasets over 144,000 time series and 177 million data points, spanning seven domains, 10 frequencies, multivariate inputs, and prediction lengths ranging from short to long-term forecasts. To facilitate the effective pretraining and evaluation of foundation models, we also provide a non-leaking pretraining dataset containing approximately 230 billion data points. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of 17 baselines, which includes statistical models, deep learning models, and foundation models. We discuss each model in the context of various benchmark characteristics and offer a qualitative analysis that spans both deep learning and foundation models. We believe the insights from this analysis, along with access to this new standard zero-shot time series forecasting benchmark, will guide future developments in time series foundation models. The codebase, datasets, and a leaderboard showing all the results in detail will be available soon.

We present a unified representation for actionable spatial perception: 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs. Scene graphs are directed graphs where nodes represent entities in the scene (e.g. objects, walls, rooms), and edges represent relations (e.g. inclusion, adjacency) among nodes. Dynamic scene graphs (DSGs) extend this notion to represent dynamic scenes with moving agents (e.g. humans, robots), and to include actionable information that supports planning and decision-making (e.g. spatio-temporal relations, topology at different levels of abstraction). Our second contribution is to provide the first fully automatic Spatial PerceptIon eNgine(SPIN) to build a DSG from visual-inertial data. We integrate state-of-the-art techniques for object and human detection and pose estimation, and we describe how to robustly infer object, robot, and human nodes in crowded scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that reconciles visual-inertial SLAM and dense human mesh tracking. Moreover, we provide algorithms to obtain hierarchical representations of indoor environments (e.g. places, structures, rooms) and their relations. Our third contribution is to demonstrate the proposed spatial perception engine in a photo-realistic Unity-based simulator, where we assess its robustness and expressiveness. Finally, we discuss the implications of our proposal on modern robotics applications. 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs can have a profound impact on planning and decision-making, human-robot interaction, long-term autonomy, and scene prediction. A video abstract is available at https://youtu.be/SWbofjhyPzI

World models are a fundamental component in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL). To perform temporally extended and consistent simulations of the future in partially observable environments, world models need to possess long-term memory. However, state-of-the-art MBRL agents, such as Dreamer, predominantly employ recurrent neural networks (RNNs) as their world model backbone, which have limited memory capacity. In this paper, we seek to explore alternative world model backbones for improving long-term memory. In particular, we investigate the effectiveness of Transformers and Structured State Space Sequence (S4) models, motivated by their remarkable ability to capture long-range dependencies in low-dimensional sequences and their complementary strengths. We propose S4WM, the first world model compatible with parallelizable SSMs including S4 and its variants. By incorporating latent variable modeling, S4WM can efficiently generate high-dimensional image sequences through latent imagination. Furthermore, we extensively compare RNN-, Transformer-, and S4-based world models across four sets of environments, which we have tailored to assess crucial memory capabilities of world models, including long-term imagination, context-dependent recall, reward prediction, and memory-based reasoning. Our findings demonstrate that S4WM outperforms Transformer-based world models in terms of long-term memory, while exhibiting greater efficiency during training and imagination. These results pave the way for the development of stronger MBRL agents.

Financial markets have a vital role in the development of modern society. They allow the deployment of economic resources. Changes in stock prices reflect changes in the market. In this study, we focus on predicting stock prices by deep learning model. This is a challenge task, because there is much noise and uncertainty in information that is related to stock prices. So this work uses sparse autoencoders with one-dimension (1-D) residual convolutional networks which is a deep learning model, to de-noise the data. Long-short term memory (LSTM) is then used to predict the stock price. The prices, indices and macroeconomic variables in past are the features used to predict the next day's price. Experiment results show that 1-D residual convolutional networks can de-noise data and extract deep features better than a model that combines wavelet transforms (WT) and stacked autoencoders (SAEs). In addition, we compare the performances of model with two different forecast targets of stock price: absolute stock price and price rate of change. The results show that predicting stock price through price rate of change is better than predicting absolute prices directly.

There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models have been explored for cryptocurrency price forecasting, it is not clear which models are suitable due to high market volatility. In this study, we review the literature about deep learning for cryptocurrency price forecasting and evaluate novel deep learning models for cryptocurrency stock price prediction. Our deep learning models include variants of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, variants of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and the Transformer model. We evaluate univariate and multivariate approaches for multi-step ahead predicting of cryptocurrencies close-price. We also carry out volatility analysis on the four cryptocurrencies which reveals significant fluctuations in their prices throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we investigate the prediction accuracy of two scenarios identified by different training sets for the models. First, we use the pre-COVID-19 datasets to model cryptocurrency close-price forecasting during the early period of COVID-19. Secondly, we utilise data from the COVID-19 period to predict prices for 2023 to 2024. Our results show that the convolutional LSTM with a multivariate approach provides the best prediction accuracy in two major experimental settings. Our results also indicate that the multivariate deep learning models exhibit better performance in forecasting four different cryptocurrencies when compared to the univariate models.

The correct use of Dutch pronouns 'die' and 'dat' is a stumbling block for both native and non-native speakers of Dutch due to the multiplicity of syntactic functions and the dependency on the antecedent's gender and number. Drawing on previous research conducted on neural context-dependent dt-mistake correction models (Heyman et al. 2018), this study constructs the first neural network model for Dutch demonstrative and relative pronoun resolution that specifically focuses on the correction and part-of-speech prediction of these two pronouns. Two separate datasets are built with sentences obtained from, respectively, the Dutch Europarl corpus (Koehn 2015) - which contains the proceedings of the European Parliament from 1996 to the present - and the SoNaR corpus (Oostdijk et al. 2013) - which contains Dutch texts from a variety of domains such as newspapers, blogs and legal texts. Firstly, a binary classification model solely predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat'. The classifier with a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture achieves 84.56% accuracy. Secondly, a multitask classification model simultaneously predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat' and its part-of-speech tag. The model containing a combination of a sentence and context encoder with both a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture results in 88.63% accuracy for die/dat prediction and 87.73% accuracy for part-of-speech prediction. More evenly-balanced data, larger word embeddings, an extra bidirectional long short-term memory layer and integrated part-of-speech knowledge positively affects die/dat prediction performance, while a context encoder architecture raises part-of-speech prediction performance. This study shows promising results and can serve as a starting point for future research on machine learning models for Dutch anaphora resolution.

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.

Our study focuses on comparing the performance and resource requirements between different Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architectures and an ANN specialized architecture for forex market prediction. We analyze the execution time of the models as well as the resources consumed, such as memory and computational power. Our aim is to demonstrate that the specialized architecture not only achieves better results in forex market prediction but also executes using fewer resources and in a shorter time frame compared to LSTM architectures. This comparative analysis will provide significant insights into the suitability of these two types of architectures for time series prediction in the forex market environment.

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) to capture temporal dynamics and extract significant features from raw cryptocurrency data. The application of technical indicators, such facilitates the extraction of intricate patterns, momentum, volatility, and trends. The Performer neural network, employing Fast Attention Via positive Orthogonal Random features (FAVOR+), has demonstrated superior computational efficiency and scalability compared to the traditional Multi-head attention mechanism in Transformer models. Additionally, the integration of BiLSTM in the feedforward network enhances the model's capacity to capture temporal dynamics in the data, processing it in both forward and backward directions. This is particularly advantageous for time series data where past and future data points can influence the current state. The proposed method has been applied to the hourly and daily timeframes of the major cryptocurrencies and its performance has been benchmarked against other methods documented in the literature. The results underscore the potential of the proposed method to outperform existing models, marking a significant progression in the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

We propose a novel method called Long Expressive Memory (LEM) for learning long-term sequential dependencies. LEM is gradient-based, it can efficiently process sequential tasks with very long-term dependencies, and it is sufficiently expressive to be able to learn complicated input-output maps. To derive LEM, we consider a system of multiscale ordinary differential equations, as well as a suitable time-discretization of this system. For LEM, we derive rigorous bounds to show the mitigation of the exploding and vanishing gradients problem, a well-known challenge for gradient-based recurrent sequential learning methods. We also prove that LEM can approximate a large class of dynamical systems to high accuracy. Our empirical results, ranging from image and time-series classification through dynamical systems prediction to speech recognition and language modeling, demonstrate that LEM outperforms state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks, gated recurrent units, and long short-term memory models.

In this research, we investigate techniques to detect hate speech in movies. We introduce a new dataset collected from the subtitles of six movies, where each utterance is annotated either as hate, offensive or normal. We apply transfer learning techniques of domain adaptation and fine-tuning on existing social media datasets, namely from Twitter and Fox News. We evaluate different representations, i.e., Bag of Words (BoW), Bi-directional Long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM), and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) on 11k movie subtitles. The BERT model obtained the best macro-averaged F1-score of 77%. Hence, we show that transfer learning from the social media domain is efficacious in classifying hate and offensive speech in movies through subtitles.

In Autonomous Driving (AD) transparency and safety are paramount, as mistakes are costly. However, neural networks used in AD systems are generally considered black boxes. As a countermeasure, we have methods of explainable AI (XAI), such as feature relevance estimation and dimensionality reduction. Coarse graining techniques can also help reduce dimensionality and find interpretable global patterns. A specific coarse graining method is Renormalization Groups from statistical physics. It has previously been applied to Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) to interpret unsupervised learning. We refine this technique by building a transparent backbone model for convolutional variational autoencoders (VAE) that allows mapping latent values to input features and has performance comparable to trained black box VAEs. Moreover, we propose a custom feature map visualization technique to analyze the internal convolutional layers in the VAE to explain internal causes of poor reconstruction that may lead to dangerous traffic scenarios in AD applications. In a second key contribution, we propose explanation and evaluation techniques for the internal dynamics and feature relevance of prediction networks. We test a long short-term memory (LSTM) network in the computer vision domain to evaluate the predictability and in future applications potentially safety of prediction models. We showcase our methods by analyzing a VAE-LSTM world model that predicts pedestrian perception in an urban traffic situation.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a highly prevalent chronic musculoskeletal condition with no currently available treatment. The manifestation of KOA is heterogeneous and prediction of its progression is challenging. Current literature suggests that the use of multi-modal data and advanced modeling methods, such as the ones based on Deep Learning, has promise in tackling this challenge. To date, however, the evidence on the efficacy of this approach is limited. In this study, we leveraged recent advances in Deep Learning and, using a Transformer approach, developed a unified framework for the multi-modal fusion of knee imaging data. Subsequently, we analyzed its performance across a range of scenarios by investigating multiple progression horizons -- from short-term to long-term. We report our findings using a large cohort (n=2421-3967) derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. We show that structural knee MRI allows identifying radiographic KOA progressors on par with multi-modal fusion approaches, achieving an area under the ROC curve (ROC AUC) of 0.70-0.76 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.15-0.54 in 2-8 year horizons. Progression within 1 year was better predicted with a multi-modal method using X-ray, structural, and compositional MR images -- ROC AUC of 0.76(0.04), AP of 0.13(0.04) -- or via clinical data. Our follow-up analysis generally shows that prediction from the imaging data is more accurate for post-traumatic subjects, and we further investigate which subject subgroups may benefit the most. The present study provides novel insights into multi-modal imaging of KOA and brings a unified data-driven framework for studying its progression in an end-to-end manner, providing new tools for the design of more efficient clinical trials. The source code of our framework and the pre-trained models are made publicly available.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

Long-term, open-domain dialogue capabilities are essential for chatbots aiming to recall past interactions and demonstrate emotional intelligence (EI). Yet, most existing research relies on synthetic, LLM-generated data, leaving open questions about real-world conversational patterns. To address this gap, we introduce REALTALK, a 21-day corpus of authentic messaging app dialogues, providing a direct benchmark against genuine human interactions. We first conduct a dataset analysis, focusing on EI attributes and persona consistency to understand the unique challenges posed by real-world dialogues. By comparing with LLM-generated conversations, we highlight key differences, including diverse emotional expressions and variations in persona stability that synthetic dialogues often fail to capture. Building on these insights, we introduce two benchmark tasks: (1) persona simulation where a model continues a conversation on behalf of a specific user given prior dialogue context; and (2) memory probing where a model answers targeted questions requiring long-term memory of past interactions. Our findings reveal that models struggle to simulate a user solely from dialogue history, while fine-tuning on specific user chats improves persona emulation. Additionally, existing models face significant challenges in recalling and leveraging long-term context within real-world conversations.

Large language models (LLMs) like GPTs, trained on vast datasets, have demonstrated impressive capabilities in language understanding, reasoning, and planning, achieving human-level performance in various tasks. Most studies focus on enhancing these models by training on ever-larger datasets to build more powerful foundation models. While training stronger models is important, enabling models to evolve during inference is equally crucial, a process we refer to as AI self-evolution. Unlike large-scale training, self-evolution may rely on limited data or interactions. Inspired by the columnar organization of the human cerebral cortex, we hypothesize that AI models could develop cognitive abilities and build internal representations through iterative interactions with their environment. To achieve this, models need long-term memory (LTM) to store and manage processed interaction data. LTM supports self-evolution by representing diverse experiences across environments and agents. In this report, we explore AI self-evolution and its potential to enhance models during inference. We examine LTM's role in lifelong learning, allowing models to evolve based on accumulated interactions. We outline the structure of LTM and the systems needed for effective data retention and representation. We also classify approaches for building personalized models with LTM data and show how these models achieve self-evolution through interaction. Using LTM, our multi-agent framework OMNE achieved first place on the GAIA benchmark, demonstrating LTM's potential for AI self-evolution. Finally, we present a roadmap for future research, emphasizing the importance of LTM for advancing AI technology and its practical applications.

Long-term memory plays a critical role in personal interaction, considering long-term memory can better leverage world knowledge, historical information, and preferences in dialogues. Our research introduces PerLTQA, an innovative QA dataset that combines semantic and episodic memories, including world knowledge, profiles, social relationships, events, and dialogues. This dataset is collected to investigate the use of personalized memories, focusing on social interactions and events in the QA task. PerLTQA features two types of memory and a comprehensive benchmark of 8,593 questions for 30 characters, facilitating the exploration and application of personalized memories in Large Language Models (LLMs). Based on PerLTQA, we propose a novel framework for memory integration and generation, consisting of three main components: Memory Classification, Memory Retrieval, and Memory Synthesis. We evaluate this framework using five LLMs and three retrievers. Experimental results demonstrate that BERT-based classification models significantly outperform LLMs such as ChatGLM3 and ChatGPT in the memory classification task. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of effective memory integration in the QA task.

Marketers spend billions of dollars on advertisements, but to what end? At purchase time, if customers cannot recognize the brand for which they saw an ad, the money spent on the ad is essentially wasted. Despite its importance in marketing, until now, there has been no study on the memorability of ads in the ML literature. All previous memorability studies have been conducted on short-term recall on specific content types like object and action videos. On the other hand, the advertising industry only cares about long-term memorability, and ads are almost always highly multimodal. Therefore, we release the first memorability dataset, LAMDBA, consisting of 1749 participants and 2205 ads covering 276 brands. Running statistical tests over different participant subpopulations and ad types, we find many interesting insights into what makes an ad memorable, e.g., fast-moving ads are more memorable than those with slower scenes; people who use ad-blockers remember a lower number of ads than those who don't. Next, we present a novel model, Henry, to predict the memorability of a content which achieves state-of-the-art performance across all prominent literature memorability datasets. Henry shows strong generalization performance with better results in 0-shot on unseen datasets. Finally, with the intent of memorable ad generation, we present a scalable method to build a high-quality memorable ad generation model by leveraging automatically annotated data. Our approach, SEED (Self rEwarding mEmorability Modeling), starts with a language model trained on LAMBDA as seed data and progressively trains the LLM to generate more memorable ads. We show that the generated advertisements have 44\% higher memorability scores than the original ads. Further, we release a large-scale ad dataset, UltraLAMBDA, consisting of 5 million ads with their automatically-assigned memorability scores.

Long-Term Person Re-Identification (LT-ReID) has become increasingly crucial in computer vision and biometrics. In this work, we aim to extend LT-ReID beyond pedestrian recognition to include a wider range of real-world human activities while still accounting for cloth-changing scenarios over large time gaps. This setting poses additional challenges due to the geometric misalignment and appearance ambiguity caused by the diversity of human pose and clothing. To address these challenges, we propose a new approach 3DInvarReID for (i) disentangling identity from non-identity components (pose, clothing shape, and texture) of 3D clothed humans, and (ii) reconstructing accurate 3D clothed body shapes and learning discriminative features of naked body shapes for person ReID in a joint manner. To better evaluate our study of LT-ReID, we collect a real-world dataset called CCDA, which contains a wide variety of human activities and clothing changes. Experimentally, we show the superior performance of our approach for person ReID.

Long-term point tracking is essential to understand non-rigid motion in the physical world better. Deep learning approaches have recently been incorporated into long-term point tracking, but most prior work predominantly functions in 2D. Although these methods benefit from the well-established backbones and matching frameworks, the motions they produce do not always make sense in the 3D physical world. In this paper, we propose the first deep learning framework for long-term point tracking in 3D that generalizes to new points and videos without requiring test-time fine-tuning. Our model contains a cost volume fusion module that effectively integrates multiple past appearances and motion information via a transformer architecture, significantly enhancing overall tracking performance. In terms of 3D tracking performance, our model significantly outperforms simple scene flow chaining and previous 2D point tracking methods, even if one uses ground truth depth and camera pose to backproject 2D point tracks in a synthetic scenario.

Long-term Person Re-Identification (LRe-ID) aims at matching an individual across cameras after a long period of time, presenting variations in clothing, pose, and viewpoint. In this work, we propose CCPA: Contrastive Clothing and Pose Augmentation framework for LRe-ID. Beyond appearance, CCPA captures body shape information which is cloth-invariant using a Relation Graph Attention Network. Training a robust LRe-ID model requires a wide range of clothing variations and expensive cloth labeling, which is lacked in current LRe-ID datasets. To address this, we perform clothing and pose transfer across identities to generate images of more clothing variations and of different persons wearing similar clothing. The augmented batch of images serve as inputs to our proposed Fine-grained Contrastive Losses, which not only supervise the Re-ID model to learn discriminative person embeddings under long-term scenarios but also ensure in-distribution data generation. Results on LRe-ID datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our CCPA framework.

The analysis of conversations recorded in everyday life requires privacy protection. In this contribution, we explore a privacy-preserving feature extraction method based on input feature dimension reduction, spectral smoothing and the low-cost speaker anonymization technique based on McAdams coefficient. We assess the utility of the feature extraction methods with a voice activity detection and a speaker diarization system, while privacy protection is determined with a speech recognition and a speaker verification model. We show that the combination of McAdams coefficient and spectral smoothing maintains the utility while improving privacy.

Long-term user engagement (LTE) optimization in sequential recommender systems (SRS) is shown to be suited by reinforcement learning (RL) which finds a policy to maximize long-term rewards. Meanwhile, RL has its shortcomings, particularly requiring a large number of online samples for exploration, which is risky in real-world applications. One of the appealing ways to avoid the risk is to build a simulator and learn the optimal recommendation policy in the simulator. In LTE optimization, the simulator is to simulate multiple users' daily feedback for given recommendations. However, building a user simulator with no reality-gap, i.e., can predict user's feedback exactly, is unrealistic because the users' reaction patterns are complex and historical logs for each user are limited, which might mislead the simulator-based recommendation policy. In this paper, we present a practical simulator-based recommender policy training approach, Simulation-to-Recommendation (Sim2Rec) to handle the reality-gap problem for LTE optimization. Specifically, Sim2Rec introduces a simulator set to generate various possibilities of user behavior patterns, then trains an environment-parameter extractor to recognize users' behavior patterns in the simulators. Finally, a context-aware policy is trained to make the optimal decisions on all of the variants of the users based on the inferred environment-parameters. The policy is transferable to unseen environments (e.g., the real world) directly as it has learned to recognize all various user behavior patterns and to make the correct decisions based on the inferred environment-parameters. Experiments are conducted in synthetic environments and a real-world large-scale ride-hailing platform, DidiChuxing. The results show that Sim2Rec achieves significant performance improvement, and produces robust recommendations in unseen environments.

We consider the problem of generating musical soundtracks in sync with rhythmic visual cues. Most existing works rely on pre-defined music representations, leading to the incompetence of generative flexibility and complexity. Other methods directly generating video-conditioned waveforms suffer from limited scenarios, short lengths, and unstable generation quality. To this end, we present Long-Term Rhythmic Video Soundtracker (LORIS), a novel framework to synthesize long-term conditional waveforms. Specifically, our framework consists of a latent conditional diffusion probabilistic model to perform waveform synthesis. Furthermore, a series of context-aware conditioning encoders are proposed to take temporal information into consideration for a long-term generation. Notably, we extend our model's applicability from dances to multiple sports scenarios such as floor exercise and figure skating. To perform comprehensive evaluations, we establish a benchmark for rhythmic video soundtracks including the pre-processed dataset, improved evaluation metrics, and robust generative baselines. Extensive experiments show that our model generates long-term soundtracks with state-of-the-art musical quality and rhythmic correspondence. Codes are available at https://github.com/OpenGVLab/LORIS.

Novel view synthesis from a single input image is a challenging task, where the goal is to generate a new view of a scene from a desired camera pose that may be separated by a large motion. The highly uncertain nature of this synthesis task due to unobserved elements within the scene (i.e. occlusion) and outside the field-of-view makes the use of generative models appealing to capture the variety of possible outputs. In this paper, we propose a novel generative model capable of producing a sequence of photorealistic images consistent with a specified camera trajectory, and a single starting image. Our approach is centred on an autoregressive conditional diffusion-based model capable of interpolating visible scene elements, and extrapolating unobserved regions in a view, in a geometrically consistent manner. Conditioning is limited to an image capturing a single camera view and the (relative) pose of the new camera view. To measure the consistency over a sequence of generated views, we introduce a new metric, the thresholded symmetric epipolar distance (TSED), to measure the number of consistent frame pairs in a sequence. While previous methods have been shown to produce high quality images and consistent semantics across pairs of views, we show empirically with our metric that they are often inconsistent with the desired camera poses. In contrast, we demonstrate that our method produces both photorealistic and view-consistent imagery.

Current approaches for controlling dialogue response generation are primarily focused on high-level attributes like style, sentiment, or topic. In this work, we focus on constrained long-term dialogue generation, which involves more fine-grained control and requires a given set of control words to appear in generated responses. This setting requires a model to not only consider the generation of these control words in the immediate context, but also produce utterances that will encourage the generation of the words at some time in the (possibly distant) future. We define the problem of constrained long-term control for dialogue generation, identify gaps in current methods for evaluation, and propose new metrics that better measure long-term control. We also propose a retrieval-augmented method that improves performance of long-term controlled generation via logit modification techniques. We show through experiments on three task-oriented dialogue datasets that our metrics better assess dialogue control relative to current alternatives and that our method outperforms state-of-the-art constrained generation baselines.

Models based on deep convolutional networks have dominated recent image interpretation tasks; we investigate whether models which are also recurrent, or "temporally deep", are effective for tasks involving sequences, visual and otherwise. We develop a novel recurrent convolutional architecture suitable for large-scale visual learning which is end-to-end trainable, and demonstrate the value of these models on benchmark video recognition tasks, image description and retrieval problems, and video narration challenges. In contrast to current models which assume a fixed spatio-temporal receptive field or simple temporal averaging for sequential processing, recurrent convolutional models are "doubly deep"' in that they can be compositional in spatial and temporal "layers". Such models may have advantages when target concepts are complex and/or training data are limited. Learning long-term dependencies is possible when nonlinearities are incorporated into the network state updates. Long-term RNN models are appealing in that they directly can map variable-length inputs (e.g., video frames) to variable length outputs (e.g., natural language text) and can model complex temporal dynamics; yet they can be optimized with backpropagation. Our recurrent long-term models are directly connected to modern visual convnet models and can be jointly trained to simultaneously learn temporal dynamics and convolutional perceptual representations. Our results show such models have distinct advantages over state-of-the-art models for recognition or generation which are separately defined and/or optimized.

In Conversational Recommendation Systems (CRS), the central question is how the conversational agent can naturally ask for user preferences and provide suitable recommendations. Existing works mainly follow the hierarchical architecture, where a higher policy decides whether to invoke the conversation module (to ask questions) or the recommendation module (to make recommendations). This architecture prevents these two components from fully interacting with each other. In contrast, this paper proposes a novel architecture, the long short-term feedback architecture, to connect these two essential components in CRS. Specifically, the recommendation predicts the long-term recommendation target based on the conversational context and the user history. Driven by the targeted recommendation, the conversational model predicts the next topic or attribute to verify if the user preference matches the target. The balance feedback loop continues until the short-term planner output matches the long-term planner output, that is when the system should make the recommendation.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

Considering the complementarity of scene flow estimation in the spatial domain's focusing capability and 3D object tracking in the temporal domain's coherence, this study aims to address a comprehensive new task that can simultaneously capture fine-grained and long-term 3D motion in an online manner: long-term scene flow estimation (LSFE). We introduce SceneTracker, a novel learning-based LSFE network that adopts an iterative approach to approximate the optimal trajectory. Besides, it dynamically indexes and constructs appearance and depth correlation features simultaneously and employs the Transformer to explore and utilize long-range connections within and between trajectories. With detailed experiments, SceneTracker shows superior capabilities in handling 3D spatial occlusion and depth noise interference, highly tailored to the LSFE task's needs. Finally, we build the first real-world evaluation dataset, LSFDriving, further substantiating SceneTracker's commendable generalization capacity. The code and data for SceneTracker is available at https://github.com/wwsource/SceneTracker.

Understanding human activity is a crucial yet intricate task in egocentric vision, a field that focuses on capturing visual perspectives from the camera wearer's viewpoint. While traditional methods heavily rely on representation learning trained on extensive video data, there exists a significant limitation: obtaining effective video representations proves challenging due to the inherent complexity and variability in human activities.Furthermore, exclusive dependence on video-based learning may constrain a model's capability to generalize across long-tail classes and out-of-distribution scenarios. In this study, we introduce a novel approach for long-term action anticipation using language models (LALM), adept at addressing the complex challenges of long-term activity understanding without the need for extensive training. Our method incorporates an action recognition model to track previous action sequences and a vision-language model to articulate relevant environmental details. By leveraging the context provided by these past events, we devise a prompting strategy for action anticipation using large language models (LLMs). Moreover, we implement Maximal Marginal Relevance for example selection to facilitate in-context learning of the LLMs. Our experimental results demonstrate that LALM surpasses the state-of-the-art methods in the task of long-term action anticipation on the Ego4D benchmark. We further validate LALM on two additional benchmarks, affirming its capacity for generalization across intricate activities with different sets of taxonomies. These are achieved without specific fine-tuning.

Modeling long-term context in videos is crucial for many fine-grained tasks including temporal action segmentation. An interesting question that is still open is how much long-term temporal context is needed for optimal performance. While transformers can model the long-term context of a video, this becomes computationally prohibitive for long videos. Recent works on temporal action segmentation thus combine temporal convolutional networks with self-attentions that are computed only for a local temporal window. While these approaches show good results, their performance is limited by their inability to capture the full context of a video. In this work, we try to answer how much long-term temporal context is required for temporal action segmentation by introducing a transformer-based model that leverages sparse attention to capture the full context of a video. We compare our model with the current state of the art on three datasets for temporal action segmentation, namely 50Salads, Breakfast, and Assembly101. Our experiments show that modeling the full context of a video is necessary to obtain the best performance for temporal action segmentation.

As a video task, Multiple Object Tracking (MOT) is expected to capture temporal information of targets effectively. Unfortunately, most existing methods only explicitly exploit the object features between adjacent frames, while lacking the capacity to model long-term temporal information. In this paper, we propose MeMOTR, a long-term memory-augmented Transformer for multi-object tracking. Our method is able to make the same object's track embedding more stable and distinguishable by leveraging long-term memory injection with a customized memory-attention layer. This significantly improves the target association ability of our model. Experimental results on DanceTrack show that MeMOTR impressively surpasses the state-of-the-art method by 7.9% and 13.0% on HOTA and AssA metrics, respectively. Furthermore, our model also outperforms other Transformer-based methods on association performance on MOT17 and generalizes well on BDD100K. Code is available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/MeMOTR.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

Humans share a wide variety of images related to their personal experiences within conversations via instant messaging tools. However, existing works focus on (1) image-sharing behavior in singular sessions, leading to limited long-term social interaction, and (2) a lack of personalized image-sharing behavior. In this work, we introduce Stark, a large-scale long-term multi-modal conversation dataset that covers a wide range of social personas in a multi-modality format, time intervals, and images. To construct Stark automatically, we propose a novel multi-modal contextualization framework, Mcu, that generates long-term multi-modal dialogue distilled from ChatGPT and our proposed Plan-and-Execute image aligner. Using our Stark, we train a multi-modal conversation model, Ultron 7B, which demonstrates impressive visual imagination ability. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our dataset in human evaluation. We make our source code and dataset publicly available.

Existing works on long-term open-domain dialogues focus on evaluating model responses within contexts spanning no more than five chat sessions. Despite advancements in long-context large language models (LLMs) and retrieval augmented generation (RAG) techniques, their efficacy in very long-term dialogues remains unexplored. To address this research gap, we introduce a machine-human pipeline to generate high-quality, very long-term dialogues by leveraging LLM-based agent architectures and grounding their dialogues on personas and temporal event graphs. Moreover, we equip each agent with the capability of sharing and reacting to images. The generated conversations are verified and edited by human annotators for long-range consistency and grounding to the event graphs. Using this pipeline, we collect LoCoMo, a dataset of very long-term conversations, each encompassing 300 turns and 9K tokens on avg., over up to 35 sessions. Based on LoCoMo, we present a comprehensive evaluation benchmark to measure long-term memory in models, encompassing question answering, event summarization, and multi-modal dialogue generation tasks. Our experimental results indicate that LLMs exhibit challenges in understanding lengthy conversations and comprehending long-range temporal and causal dynamics within dialogues. Employing strategies like long-context LLMs or RAG can offer improvements but these models still substantially lag behind human performance.

Existing large language models (LLMs) can only afford fix-sized inputs due to the input length limit, preventing them from utilizing rich long-context information from past inputs. To address this, we propose a framework, Language Models Augmented with Long-Term Memory (LongMem), which enables LLMs to memorize long history. We design a novel decoupled network architecture with the original backbone LLM frozen as a memory encoder and an adaptive residual side-network as a memory retriever and reader. Such a decoupled memory design can easily cache and update long-term past contexts for memory retrieval without suffering from memory staleness. Enhanced with memory-augmented adaptation training, LongMem can thus memorize long past context and use long-term memory for language modeling. The proposed memory retrieval module can handle unlimited-length context in its memory bank to benefit various downstream tasks. Typically, LongMem can enlarge the long-form memory to 65k tokens and thus cache many-shot extra demonstration examples as long-form memory for in-context learning. Experiments show that our method outperforms strong long-context models on ChapterBreak, a challenging long-context modeling benchmark, and achieves remarkable improvements on memory-augmented in-context learning over LLMs. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in helping language models to memorize and utilize long-form contents. Our code is open-sourced at https://aka.ms/LongMem.

In order to thrive in hostile and ever-changing natural environments, mammalian brains evolved to store large amounts of knowledge about the world and continually integrate new information while avoiding catastrophic forgetting. Despite the impressive accomplishments, large language models (LLMs), even with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), still struggle to efficiently and effectively integrate a large amount of new experiences after pre-training. In this work, we introduce HippoRAG, a novel retrieval framework inspired by the hippocampal indexing theory of human long-term memory to enable deeper and more efficient knowledge integration over new experiences. HippoRAG synergistically orchestrates LLMs, knowledge graphs, and the Personalized PageRank algorithm to mimic the different roles of neocortex and hippocampus in human memory. We compare HippoRAG with existing RAG methods on multi-hop question answering and show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods remarkably, by up to 20%. Single-step retrieval with HippoRAG achieves comparable or better performance than iterative retrieval like IRCoT while being 10-30 times cheaper and 6-13 times faster, and integrating HippoRAG into IRCoT brings further substantial gains. Finally, we show that our method can tackle new types of scenarios that are out of reach of existing methods. Code and data are available at https://github.com/OSU-NLP-Group/HippoRAG.

Most open-domain dialogue systems suffer from forgetting important information, especially in a long-term conversation. Existing works usually train the specific retriever or summarizer to obtain key information from the past, which is time-consuming and highly depends on the quality of labeled data. To alleviate this problem, we propose to recursively generate summaries/ memory using large language models (LLMs) to enhance long-term memory ability. Specifically, our method first stimulates LLMs to memorize small dialogue contexts and then recursively produce new memory using previous memory and following contexts. Finally, the LLM can easily generate a highly consistent response with the help of the latest memory. We evaluate our method using ChatGPT and text-davinci-003, and the experiments on the widely-used public dataset show that our method can generate more consistent responses in a long-context conversation. Notably, our method is a potential solution to enable the LLM to model the extremely long context. Code and scripts will be released later.

Ensuring the long-term sustainability of recommender systems (RS) emerges as a crucial issue. Traditional offline evaluation methods for RS typically focus on immediate user feedback, such as clicks, but they often neglect the long-term impact of content creators. On real-world content platforms, creators can strategically produce and upload new items based on user feedback and preference trends. While previous studies have attempted to model creator behavior, they often overlook the role of information asymmetry. This asymmetry arises because creators primarily have access to feedback on the items they produce, while platforms possess data on the entire spectrum of user feedback. Current RS simulators, however, fail to account for this asymmetry, leading to inaccurate long-term evaluations. To address this gap, we propose CreAgent, a Large Language Model (LLM)-empowered creator simulation agent. By incorporating game theory's belief mechanism and the fast-and-slow thinking framework, CreAgent effectively simulates creator behavior under conditions of information asymmetry. Additionally, we enhance CreAgent's simulation ability by fine-tuning it using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Our credibility validation experiments show that CreAgent aligns well with the behaviors between real-world platform and creator, thus improving the reliability of long-term RS evaluations. Moreover, through the simulation of RS involving CreAgents, we can explore how fairness- and diversity-aware RS algorithms contribute to better long-term performance for various stakeholders. CreAgent and the simulation platform are publicly available at https://github.com/shawnye2000/CreAgent.

Equipping large language models (LLMs) with latent-space memory has attracted increasing attention as they can extend the context window of existing language models. However, retaining information from the distant past remains a challenge. For example, MemoryLLM (Wang et al., 2024a), as a representative work with latent-space memory, compresses past information into hidden states across all layers, forming a memory pool of 1B parameters. While effective for sequence lengths up to 16k tokens, it struggles to retain knowledge beyond 20k tokens. In this work, we address this limitation by introducing M+, a memory-augmented model based on MemoryLLM that significantly enhances long-term information retention. M+ integrates a long-term memory mechanism with a co-trained retriever, dynamically retrieving relevant information during text generation. We evaluate M+ on diverse benchmarks, including long-context understanding and knowledge retention tasks. Experimental results show that M+ significantly outperforms MemoryLLM and recent strong baselines, extending knowledge retention from under 20k to over 160k tokens with similar GPU memory overhead.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

Recent large language models (LLMs) offer the potential to support public health monitoring by facilitating health disclosure through open-ended conversations but rarely preserve the knowledge gained about individuals across repeated interactions. Augmenting LLMs with long-term memory (LTM) presents an opportunity to improve engagement and self-disclosure, but we lack an understanding of how LTM impacts people's interaction with LLM-driven chatbots in public health interventions. We examine the case of CareCall -- an LLM-driven voice chatbot with LTM -- through the analysis of 1,252 call logs and interviews with nine users. We found that LTM enhanced health disclosure and fostered positive perceptions of the chatbot by offering familiarity. However, we also observed challenges in promoting self-disclosure through LTM, particularly around addressing chronic health conditions and privacy concerns. We discuss considerations for LTM integration in LLM-driven chatbots for public health monitoring, including carefully deciding what topics need to be remembered in light of public health goals.

Open-domain long-term memory conversation can establish long-term intimacy with humans, and the key is the ability to understand and memorize long-term dialogue history information. Existing works integrate multiple models for modelling through a pipeline, which ignores the coupling between different stages. In this paper, we propose a Unified framework for Long-term Memory Conversations (UniMC), which increases the connection between different stages by learning relevance representation. Specifically, we decompose the main task into three subtasks based on probability graphs: 1) conversation summarization, 2) memory retrieval, 3) memory-augmented generation. Each subtask involves learning a representation for calculating the relevance between the query and memory, which is modelled by inserting a special token at the beginning of the decoder input. The relevance representation learning strengthens the connection across subtasks through parameter sharing and joint training. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed method consistently improves over strong baselines and yields better dialogue consistency and engagingness.

Existing video object segmentation (VOS) benchmarks focus on short-term videos which just last about 3-5 seconds and where objects are visible most of the time. These videos are poorly representative of practical applications, and the absence of long-term datasets restricts further investigation of VOS on the application in realistic scenarios. So, in this paper, we present a new benchmark dataset named LVOS, which consists of 220 videos with a total duration of 421 minutes. To the best of our knowledge, LVOS is the first densely annotated long-term VOS dataset. The videos in our LVOS last 1.59 minutes on average, which is 20 times longer than videos in existing VOS datasets. Each video includes various attributes, especially challenges deriving from the wild, such as long-term reappearing and cross-temporal similar objeccts.Based on LVOS, we assess existing video object segmentation algorithms and propose a Diverse Dynamic Memory network (DDMemory) that consists of three complementary memory banks to exploit temporal information adequately. The experimental results demonstrate the strength and weaknesses of prior methods, pointing promising directions for further study. Data and code are available at https://lingyihongfd.github.io/lvos.github.io/.

Visual place recognition (VPR) is critical in not only localization and mapping for autonomous driving vehicles, but also in assistive navigation for the visually impaired population. To enable a long-term VPR system on a large scale, several challenges need to be addressed. First, different applications could require different image view directions, such as front views for self-driving cars while side views for the low vision people. Second, VPR in metropolitan scenes can often cause privacy concerns due to the imaging of pedestrian and vehicle identity information, calling for the need for data anonymization before VPR queries and database construction. Both factors could lead to VPR performance variations that are not well understood yet. To study their influences, we present the NYU-VPR dataset that contains more than 200,000 images over a 2km by 2km area near the New York University campus, taken within the whole year of 2016. We present benchmark results on several popular VPR algorithms showing that side views are significantly more challenging for current VPR methods while the influence of data anonymization is almost negligible, together with our hypothetical explanations and in-depth analysis.

In static monitoring cameras, useful contextual information can stretch far beyond the few seconds typical video understanding models might see: subjects may exhibit similar behavior over multiple days, and background objects remain static. Due to power and storage constraints, sampling frequencies are low, often no faster than one frame per second, and sometimes are irregular due to the use of a motion trigger. In order to perform well in this setting, models must be robust to irregular sampling rates. In this paper we propose a method that leverages temporal context from the unlabeled frames of a novel camera to improve performance at that camera. Specifically, we propose an attention-based approach that allows our model, Context R-CNN, to index into a long term memory bank constructed on a per-camera basis and aggregate contextual features from other frames to boost object detection performance on the current frame. We apply Context R-CNN to two settings: (1) species detection using camera traps, and (2) vehicle detection in traffic cameras, showing in both settings that Context R-CNN leads to performance gains over strong baselines. Moreover, we show that increasing the contextual time horizon leads to improved results. When applied to camera trap data from the Snapshot Serengeti dataset, Context R-CNN with context from up to a month of images outperforms a single-frame baseline by 17.9% mAP, and outperforms S3D (a 3d convolution based baseline) by 11.2% mAP.

We present an unsupervised representation learning approach that compactly encodes the motion dependencies in videos. Given a pair of images from a video clip, our framework learns to predict the long-term 3D motions. To reduce the complexity of the learning framework, we propose to describe the motion as a sequence of atomic 3D flows computed with RGB-D modality. We use a Recurrent Neural Network based Encoder-Decoder framework to predict these sequences of flows. We argue that in order for the decoder to reconstruct these sequences, the encoder must learn a robust video representation that captures long-term motion dependencies and spatial-temporal relations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our learned temporal representations on activity classification across multiple modalities and datasets such as NTU RGB+D and MSR Daily Activity 3D. Our framework is generic to any input modality, i.e., RGB, Depth, and RGB-D videos.

Creating AI systems that can interact with environments over long periods, similar to human cognition, has been a longstanding research goal. Recent advancements in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant strides in open-world understanding. However, the challenge of continuous and simultaneous streaming perception, memory, and reasoning remains largely unexplored. Current MLLMs are constrained by their sequence-to-sequence architecture, which limits their ability to process inputs and generate responses simultaneously, akin to being unable to think while perceiving. Furthermore, relying on long contexts to store historical data is impractical for long-term interactions, as retaining all information becomes costly and inefficient. Therefore, rather than relying on a single foundation model to perform all functions, this project draws inspiration from the concept of the Specialized Generalist AI and introduces disentangled streaming perception, reasoning, and memory mechanisms, enabling real-time interaction with streaming video and audio input. The proposed framework InternLM-XComposer2.5-OmniLive (IXC2.5-OL) consists of three key modules: (1) Streaming Perception Module: Processes multimodal information in real-time, storing key details in memory and triggering reasoning in response to user queries. (2) Multi-modal Long Memory Module: Integrates short-term and long-term memory, compressing short-term memories into long-term ones for efficient retrieval and improved accuracy. (3) Reasoning Module: Responds to queries and executes reasoning tasks, coordinating with the perception and memory modules. This project simulates human-like cognition, enabling multimodal large language models to provide continuous and adaptive service over time.

Most of the open-domain dialogue models tend to perform poorly in the setting of long-term human-bot conversations. The possible reason is that they lack the capability of understanding and memorizing long-term dialogue history information. To address this issue, we present a novel task of Long-term Memory Conversation (LeMon) and then build a new dialogue dataset DuLeMon and a dialogue generation framework with Long-Term Memory (LTM) mechanism (called PLATO-LTM). This LTM mechanism enables our system to accurately extract and continuously update long-term persona memory without requiring multiple-session dialogue datasets for model training. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to conduct real-time dynamic management of persona information of both parties, including the user and the bot. Results on DuLeMon indicate that PLATO-LTM can significantly outperform baselines in terms of long-term dialogue consistency, leading to better dialogue engagingness.

With the introduction of diffusion-based video generation techniques, audio-conditioned human video generation has recently achieved significant breakthroughs in both the naturalness of motion and the synthesis of portrait details. Due to the limited control of audio signals in driving human motion, existing methods often add auxiliary spatial signals to stabilize movements, which may compromise the naturalness and freedom of motion. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end audio-only conditioned video diffusion model named Loopy. Specifically, we designed an inter- and intra-clip temporal module and an audio-to-latents module, enabling the model to leverage long-term motion information from the data to learn natural motion patterns and improving audio-portrait movement correlation. This method removes the need for manually specified spatial motion templates used in existing methods to constrain motion during inference. Extensive experiments show that Loopy outperforms recent audio-driven portrait diffusion models, delivering more lifelike and high-quality results across various scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of processing lengthy dialogue histories during prolonged interaction with users without additional memory modules; however, their responses tend to overlook or incorrectly recall information from the past. In this paper, we revisit memory-augmented response generation in the era of LLMs. While prior work focuses on getting rid of outdated memories, we argue that such memories can provide contextual cues that help dialogue systems understand the development of past events and, therefore, benefit response generation. We present Theanine, a framework that augments LLMs' response generation with memory timelines -- series of memories that demonstrate the development and causality of relevant past events. Along with Theanine, we introduce TeaFarm, a counterfactual-driven question-answering pipeline addressing the limitation of G-Eval in long-term conversations. Supplementary videos of our methods and the TeaBag dataset for TeaFarm evaluation are in https://theanine-693b0.web.app/.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced the capabilities of conversational agents, making them applicable to various fields (e.g., education). Despite their progress, the evaluation of the agents often overlooks the complexities of real-world conversations, such as real-time interactions, multi-party dialogues, and extended contextual dependencies. To bridge this gap, we introduce DialSim, a real-time dialogue simulator. In this simulator, an agent is assigned the role of a character from popular TV shows, requiring it to respond to spontaneous questions using past dialogue information and to distinguish between known and unknown information. Key features of DialSim include evaluating the agent's ability to respond within a reasonable time limit, handling long-term multi-party dialogues, and managing adversarial settings (e.g., swap character names) to challenge the agent's reliance on pre-trained knowledge. We utilized this simulator to evaluate the latest conversational agents and analyze their limitations. Our experiments highlight both the strengths and weaknesses of these agents, providing valuable insights for future improvements in the field of conversational AI. DialSim is available at https://github.com/jiho283/Simulator.

The gradual nature of a diffusion process that synthesizes samples in small increments constitutes a key ingredient of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM), which have presented unprecedented quality in image synthesis and been recently explored in the motion domain. In this work, we propose to adapt the gradual diffusion concept (operating along a diffusion time-axis) into the temporal-axis of the motion sequence. Our key idea is to extend the DDPM framework to support temporally varying denoising, thereby entangling the two axes. Using our special formulation, we iteratively denoise a motion buffer that contains a set of increasingly-noised poses, which auto-regressively produces an arbitrarily long stream of frames. With a stationary diffusion time-axis, in each diffusion step we increment only the temporal-axis of the motion such that the framework produces a new, clean frame which is removed from the beginning of the buffer, followed by a newly drawn noise vector that is appended to it. This new mechanism paves the way towards a new framework for long-term motion synthesis with applications to character animation and other domains.

Memorizing and utilizing speakers' personas is a common practice for response generation in long-term conversations. Yet, human-authored datasets often provide uninformative persona sentences that hinder response quality. This paper presents a novel framework that leverages commonsense-based persona expansion to address such issues in long-term conversation. While prior work focuses on not producing personas that contradict others, we focus on transforming contradictory personas into sentences that contain rich speaker information, by refining them based on their contextual backgrounds with designed strategies. As the pioneer of persona expansion in multi-session settings, our framework facilitates better response generation via human-like persona refinement. The supplementary video of our work is available at https://caffeine-15bbf.web.app/.

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Transformers have been the most successful architecture for various speech modeling tasks, including speech separation. However, the self-attention mechanism in transformers with quadratic complexity is inefficient in computation and memory. Recent models incorporate new layers and modules along with transformers for better performance but also introduce extra model complexity. In this work, we replace transformers with Mamba, a selective state space model, for speech separation. We propose dual-path Mamba, which models short-term and long-term forward and backward dependency of speech signals using selective state spaces. Our experimental results on the WSJ0-2mix data show that our dual-path Mamba models of comparably smaller sizes outperform state-of-the-art RNN model DPRNN, CNN model WaveSplit, and transformer model Sepformer. Code: https://github.com/xi-j/Mamba-TasNet

Existing video-language studies mainly focus on learning short video clips, leaving long-term temporal dependencies rarely explored due to over-high computational cost of modeling long videos. To address this issue, one feasible solution is learning the correspondence between video clips and captions, which however inevitably encounters the multi-granularity noisy correspondence (MNC) problem. To be specific, MNC refers to the clip-caption misalignment (coarse-grained) and frame-word misalignment (fine-grained), hindering temporal learning and video understanding. In this paper, we propose NOise Robust Temporal Optimal traNsport (Norton) that addresses MNC in a unified optimal transport (OT) framework. In brief, Norton employs video-paragraph and clip-caption contrastive losses to capture long-term dependencies based on OT. To address coarse-grained misalignment in video-paragraph contrast, Norton filters out the irrelevant clips and captions through an alignable prompt bucket and realigns asynchronous clip-caption pairs based on transport distance. To address the fine-grained misalignment, Norton incorporates a soft-maximum operator to identify crucial words and key frames. Additionally, Norton exploits the potential faulty negative samples in clip-caption contrast by rectifying the alignment target with OT assignment to ensure precise temporal modeling. Extensive experiments on video retrieval, videoQA, and action segmentation verify the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://lin-yijie.github.io/projects/Norton.

Knowing how to end and resume conversations over time is a natural part of communication, allowing for discussions to span weeks, months, or years. The duration of gaps between conversations dictates which topics are relevant and which questions to ask, and dialogue systems which do not explicitly model time may generate responses that are unnatural. In this work we explore the idea of making dialogue models aware of time, and present GapChat, a multi-session dialogue dataset in which the time between each session varies. While the dataset is constructed in real-time, progress on events in speakers' lives is simulated in order to create realistic dialogues occurring across a long timespan. We expose time information to the model and compare different representations of time and event progress. In human evaluation we show that time-aware models perform better in metrics that judge the relevance of the chosen topics and the information gained from the conversation.

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT3.5, have exhibited remarkable proficiency in comprehending and generating natural language. However, their unpersonalized generation paradigm may result in suboptimal user-specific outcomes. Typically, users converse differently based on their knowledge and preferences. This necessitates the task of enhancing user-oriented LLM which remains unexplored. While one can fully train an LLM for this objective, the resource consumption is unaffordable. Prior research has explored memory-based methods to store and retrieve knowledge to enhance generation without retraining for new queries. However, we contend that a mere memory module is inadequate to comprehend a user's preference, and fully training an LLM can be excessively costly. In this study, we propose a novel computational bionic memory mechanism, equipped with a parameter-efficient fine-tuning schema, to personalize LLMs. Our extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed approach. To encourage further research into this area, we are releasing a new conversation dataset generated entirely by LLM based on an open-source medical corpus, as well as our implementation code.

We introduce PointOdyssey, a large-scale synthetic dataset, and data generation framework, for the training and evaluation of long-term fine-grained tracking algorithms. Our goal is to advance the state-of-the-art by placing emphasis on long videos with naturalistic motion. Toward the goal of naturalism, we animate deformable characters using real-world motion capture data, we build 3D scenes to match the motion capture environments, and we render camera viewpoints using trajectories mined via structure-from-motion on real videos. We create combinatorial diversity by randomizing character appearance, motion profiles, materials, lighting, 3D assets, and atmospheric effects. Our dataset currently includes 104 videos, averaging 2,000 frames long, with orders of magnitude more correspondence annotations than prior work. We show that existing methods can be trained from scratch in our dataset and outperform the published variants. Finally, we introduce modifications to the PIPs point tracking method, greatly widening its temporal receptive field, which improves its performance on PointOdyssey as well as on two real-world benchmarks. Our data and code are publicly available at: https://pointodyssey.com

Existing offboard 3D detectors always follow a modular pipeline design to take advantage of unlimited sequential point clouds. We have found that the full potential of offboard 3D detectors is not explored mainly due to two reasons: (1) the onboard multi-object tracker cannot generate sufficient complete object trajectories, and (2) the motion state of objects poses an inevitable challenge for the object-centric refining stage in leveraging the long-term temporal context representation. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel paradigm of offboard 3D object detection, named DetZero. Concretely, an offline tracker coupled with a multi-frame detector is proposed to focus on the completeness of generated object tracks. An attention-mechanism refining module is proposed to strengthen contextual information interaction across long-term sequential point clouds for object refining with decomposed regression methods. Extensive experiments on Waymo Open Dataset show our DetZero outperforms all state-of-the-art onboard and offboard 3D detection methods. Notably, DetZero ranks 1st place on Waymo 3D object detection leaderboard with 85.15 mAPH (L2) detection performance. Further experiments validate the application of taking the place of human labels with such high-quality results. Our empirical study leads to rethinking conventions and interesting findings that can guide future research on offboard 3D object detection.

Revolutionary advancements in Large Language Models have drastically reshaped our interactions with artificial intelligence systems. Despite this, a notable hindrance remains-the deficiency of a long-term memory mechanism within these models. This shortfall becomes increasingly evident in situations demanding sustained interaction, such as personal companion systems and psychological counseling. Therefore, we propose MemoryBank, a novel memory mechanism tailored for LLMs. MemoryBank enables the models to summon relevant memories, continually evolve through continuous memory updates, comprehend, and adapt to a user personality by synthesizing information from past interactions. To mimic anthropomorphic behaviors and selectively preserve memory, MemoryBank incorporates a memory updating mechanism, inspired by the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve theory, which permits the AI to forget and reinforce memory based on time elapsed and the relative significance of the memory, thereby offering a human-like memory mechanism. MemoryBank is versatile in accommodating both closed-source models like ChatGPT and open-source models like ChatGLM. We exemplify application of MemoryBank through the creation of an LLM-based chatbot named SiliconFriend in a long-term AI Companion scenario. Further tuned with psychological dialogs, SiliconFriend displays heightened empathy in its interactions. Experiment involves both qualitative analysis with real-world user dialogs and quantitative analysis with simulated dialogs. In the latter, ChatGPT acts as users with diverse characteristics and generates long-term dialog contexts covering a wide array of topics. The results of our analysis reveal that SiliconFriend, equipped with MemoryBank, exhibits a strong capability for long-term companionship as it can provide emphatic response, recall relevant memories and understand user personality.

Optimizing user engagement is a key goal for modern recommendation systems, but blindly pushing users towards increased consumption risks burn-out, churn, or even addictive habits. To promote digital well-being, most platforms now offer a service that periodically prompts users to take breaks. These, however, must be set up manually, and so may be suboptimal for both users and the system. In this paper, we study the role of breaks in recommendation, and propose a framework for learning optimal breaking policies that promote and sustain long-term engagement. Based on the notion that recommendation dynamics are susceptible to both positive and negative feedback, we cast recommendation as a Lotka-Volterra dynamical system, where breaking reduces to a problem of optimal control. We then give an efficient learning algorithm, provide theoretical guarantees, and empirically demonstrate the utility of our approach on semi-synthetic data.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has advanced greatly in the past few years with the employment of effective deep neural networks (DNNs) on the policy networks. With the great effectiveness came serious vulnerability issues with DNNs that small adversarial perturbations on the input can change the output of the network. Several works have pointed out that learned agents with a DNN policy network can be manipulated against achieving the original task through a sequence of small perturbations on the input states. In this paper, we demonstrate furthermore that it is also possible to impose an arbitrary adversarial reward on the victim policy network through a sequence of attacks. Our method involves the latest adversarial attack technique, Adversarial Transformer Network (ATN), that learns to generate the attack and is easy to integrate into the policy network. As a result of our attack, the victim agent is misguided to optimise for the adversarial reward over time. Our results expose serious security threats for RL applications in safety-critical systems including drones, medical analysis, and self-driving cars.

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) systems have transformed various industries by autonomously generating content that mimics human creativity. However, concerns about their social and economic consequences arise with widespread adoption. This paper employs agent-based modeling (ABM) to explore these implications, predicting the impact of generative AI on societal frameworks. The ABM integrates individual, business, and governmental agents to simulate dynamics such as education, skills acquisition, AI adoption, and regulatory responses. This study enhances understanding of AI's complex interactions and provides insights for policymaking. The literature review underscores ABM's effectiveness in forecasting AI impacts, revealing AI adoption, employment, and regulation trends with potential policy implications. Future research will refine the model, assess long-term implications and ethical considerations, and deepen understanding of generative AI's societal effects.

Invasive species in water bodies pose a major threat to the environment and biodiversity globally. Due to increased transportation and trade, non-native species have been introduced to new environments, causing damage to ecosystems and leading to economic losses in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Therefore, there is a pressing need for risk assessment and management techniques to mitigate the impact of these invasions. This study aims to develop a new physics-inspired model to forecast maritime shipping traffic and thus inform risk assessment of invasive species spread through global transportation networks. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Additionally, by analyzing the risk network of invasive species, we provide a comprehensive framework for assessing the invasion threat level given a pair of origin and destination. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% segmentation accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of invasive species risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing species invasion risks in a changing global landscape.

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: https://github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

Humans acquire knowledge by observing the external world, but also by introspection. Introspection gives a person privileged access to their current state of mind (e.g., thoughts and feelings) that is not accessible to external observers. Can LLMs introspect? We define introspection as acquiring knowledge that is not contained in or derived from training data but instead originates from internal states. Such a capability could enhance model interpretability. Instead of painstakingly analyzing a model's internal workings, we could simply ask the model about its beliefs, world models, and goals. More speculatively, an introspective model might self-report on whether it possesses certain internal states such as subjective feelings or desires and this could inform us about the moral status of these states. Such self-reports would not be entirely dictated by the model's training data. We study introspection by finetuning LLMs to predict properties of their own behavior in hypothetical scenarios. For example, "Given the input P, would your output favor the short- or long-term option?" If a model M1 can introspect, it should outperform a different model M2 in predicting M1's behavior even if M2 is trained on M1's ground-truth behavior. The idea is that M1 has privileged access to its own behavioral tendencies, and this enables it to predict itself better than M2 (even if M2 is generally stronger). In experiments with GPT-4, GPT-4o, and Llama-3 models (each finetuned to predict itself), we find that the model M1 outperforms M2 in predicting itself, providing evidence for introspection. Notably, M1 continues to predict its behavior accurately even after we intentionally modify its ground-truth behavior. However, while we successfully elicit introspection on simple tasks, we are unsuccessful on more complex tasks or those requiring out-of-distribution generalization.

We introduce a new test of how well language models capture meaning in children's books. Unlike standard language modelling benchmarks, it distinguishes the task of predicting syntactic function words from that of predicting lower-frequency words, which carry greater semantic content. We compare a range of state-of-the-art models, each with a different way of encoding what has been previously read. We show that models which store explicit representations of long-term contexts outperform state-of-the-art neural language models at predicting semantic content words, although this advantage is not observed for syntactic function words. Interestingly, we find that the amount of text encoded in a single memory representation is highly influential to the performance: there is a sweet-spot, not too big and not too small, between single words and full sentences that allows the most meaningful information in a text to be effectively retained and recalled. Further, the attention over such window-based memories can be trained effectively through self-supervision. We then assess the generality of this principle by applying it to the CNN QA benchmark, which involves identifying named entities in paraphrased summaries of news articles, and achieve state-of-the-art performance.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

In this paper we present a deep-learning model that competed at SemEval-2018 Task 2 "Multilingual Emoji Prediction". We participated in subtask A, in which we are called to predict the most likely associated emoji in English tweets. The proposed architecture relies on a Long Short-Term Memory network, augmented with an attention mechanism, that conditions the weight of each word, on a "context vector" which is taken as the aggregation of a tweet's meaning. Moreover, we initialize the embedding layer of our model, with word2vec word embeddings, pretrained on a dataset of 550 million English tweets. Finally, our model does not rely on hand-crafted features or lexicons and is trained end-to-end with back-propagation. We ranked 2nd out of 48 teams.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Predicting the bandwidth utilization on network links can be extremely useful for detecting congestion in order to correct them before they occur. In this paper, we present a solution to predict the bandwidth utilization between different network links with a very high accuracy. A simulated network is created to collect data related to the performance of the network links on every interface. These data are processed and expanded with feature engineering in order to create a training set. We evaluate and compare three types of machine learning algorithms, namely ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), in order to predict the future bandwidth consumption. The LSTM outperforms ARIMA and MLP with very accurate predictions, rarely exceeding a 3\% error (40\% for ARIMA and 20\% for the MLP). We then show that the proposed solution can be used in real time with a reaction managed by a Software-Defined Networking (SDN) platform.

This paper shows how Long Short-term Memory recurrent neural networks can be used to generate complex sequences with long-range structure, simply by predicting one data point at a time. The approach is demonstrated for text (where the data are discrete) and online handwriting (where the data are real-valued). It is then extended to handwriting synthesis by allowing the network to condition its predictions on a text sequence. The resulting system is able to generate highly realistic cursive handwriting in a wide variety of styles.

Research at the intersection of personality psychology, computer science, and linguistics has recently focused increasingly on modeling and predicting personality from language use. We report two major improvements in predicting personality traits from text data: (1) to our knowledge, the most comprehensive set of theory-based psycholinguistic features and (2) hybrid models that integrate a pre-trained Transformer Language Model BERT and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) networks trained on within-text distributions ('text contours') of psycholinguistic features. We experiment with BLSTM models (with and without Attention) and with two techniques for applying pre-trained language representations from the transformer model - 'feature-based' and 'fine-tuning'. We evaluate the performance of the models we built on two benchmark datasets that target the two dominant theoretical models of personality: the Big Five Essay dataset and the MBTI Kaggle dataset. Our results are encouraging as our models outperform existing work on the same datasets. More specifically, our models achieve improvement in classification accuracy by 2.9% on the Essay dataset and 8.28% on the Kaggle MBTI dataset. In addition, we perform ablation experiments to quantify the impact of different categories of psycholinguistic features in the respective personality prediction models.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Predicting future stock prices and their movement patterns is a complex problem. Hence, building a portfolio of capital assets using the predicted prices to achieve the optimization between its return and risk is an even more difficult task. This work has carried out an analysis of the time series of the historical prices of the top five stocks from the nine different sectors of the Indian stock market from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are built for each of these sectors. For predicting future stock prices, a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) model is also designed and fine-tuned. After five months of the portfolio construction, the actual and the predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns of each portfolio are found to be high, indicating the high precision of the LSTM model.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.