Daily Papers

In contrastive learning, two views of an original image, generated by different augmentations, are considered a positive pair, and their similarity is required to be high. Similarly, two views of distinct images form a negative pair, with encouraged low similarity. Typically, a single similarity measure, provided by a lone projection head, evaluates positive and negative sample pairs. However, due to diverse augmentation strategies and varying intra-sample similarity, views from the same image may not always be similar. Additionally, owing to inter-sample similarity, views from different images may be more akin than those from the same image. Consequently, enforcing high similarity for positive pairs and low similarity for negative pairs may be unattainable, and in some cases, such enforcement could detrimentally impact performance. To address this challenge, we propose using multiple projection heads, each producing a distinct set of features. Our pre-training loss function emerges from a solution to the maximum likelihood estimation over head-wise posterior distributions of positive samples given observations. This loss incorporates the similarity measure over positive and negative pairs, each re-weighted by an individual adaptive temperature, regulated to prevent ill solutions. Our approach, Adaptive Multi-Head Contrastive Learning (AMCL), can be applied to and experimentally enhances several popular contrastive learning methods such as SimCLR, MoCo, and Barlow Twins. The improvement remains consistent across various backbones and linear probing epochs, and becomes more significant when employing multiple augmentation methods.

Strongly lensed variable quasars can serve as precise cosmological probes, provided that time delays between the image fluxes can be accurately measured. A number of methods have been proposed to address this problem. In this paper, we explore in detail a new approach based on kernel regression estimates, which is able to estimate a single time delay given several datasets for the same quasar. We develop realistic artificial data sets in order to carry out controlled experiments to test of performance of this new approach. We also test our method on real data from strongly lensed quasar Q0957+561 and compare our estimates against existing results.

We study the problem of estimating the time delay between two signals representing delayed, irregularly sampled and noisy versions of the same underlying pattern. We propose and demonstrate an evolutionary algorithm for the (hyper)parameter estimation of a kernel-based technique in the context of an astronomical problem, namely estimating the time delay between two gravitationally lensed signals from a distant quasar. Mixed types (integer and real) are used to represent variables within the evolutionary algorithm. We test the algorithm on several artificial data sets, and also on real astronomical observations of quasar Q0957+561. By carrying out a statistical analysis of the results we present a detailed comparison of our method with the most popular methods for time delay estimation in astrophysics. Our method yields more accurate and more stable time delay estimates: for Q0957+561, we obtain 419.6 days for the time delay between images A and B. Our methodology can be readily applied to current state-of-the-art optical monitoring data in astronomy, but can also be applied in other disciplines involving similar time series data.

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering datasets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue into the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the nonlinear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira-Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. The suite covers the standard six cosmological parameters {omega_m,omega_b, sigma_8, h, n_s, w_0} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state, {omega_{nu}, w_a}. In this paper we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1Gpc)^3 volume and evolving 3200^3 particles. An additional set of 1776 lower-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly nonlinear regimes. The emulator provides predictions at the two to three percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

A new golden age in astronomy is upon us, dominated by data. Large astronomical surveys are broadcasting unprecedented rates of information, demanding machine learning as a critical component in modern scientific pipelines to handle the deluge of data. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will raise the big-data bar for time-domain astronomy, with an expected 10 million alerts per-night, and generating many petabytes of data over the lifetime of the survey. Fast and efficient classification algorithms that can operate in real-time, yet robustly and accurately, are needed for time-critical events where additional resources can be sought for follow-up analyses. In order to handle such data, state-of-the-art deep learning architectures coupled with tools that leverage modern hardware accelerators are essential. We showcase how the use of modern deep compression methods can achieve a 18times reduction in model size, whilst preserving classification performance. We also show that in addition to the deep compression techniques, careful choice of file formats can improve inference latency, and thereby throughput of alerts, on the order of 8times for local processing, and 5times in a live production setting. To test this in a live setting, we deploy this optimised version of the original time-series transformer, t2, into the community alert broking system of FINK on real Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert data, and compare throughput performance with other science modules that exist in FINK. The results shown herein emphasise the time-series transformer's suitability for real-time classification at LSST scale, and beyond, and introduce deep model compression as a fundamental tool for improving deploy-ability and scalable inference of deep learning models for transient classification.

Aims: The aim of the present study is to explore how to disentangle energy-dependent time delays due to a possible Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) at Planck scale from intrinsic delays expected in standard blazar flares. Methods: We first characterise intrinsic time delays in BL Lacs and Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars in standard one-zone time-dependent synchrotron self-Compton or external Compton models, during flares produced by particle acceleration and cooling processes. We simulate families of flares with both intrinsic and external LIV-induced energy-dependent delays. Discrimination between intrinsic and LIV delays is then investigated in two different ways. A technique based on Euclidean distance calculation between delays obtained in the synchrotron and in the inverse-Compton spectral bumps is used to assess their degree of correlation. A complementary study is performed using spectral hardness versus intensity diagrams in both energy ranges. Results: We show that the presence of non-negligible LIV effects, which essentially act only at very high energies (VHE), can drastically reduce the strong correlation expected between the X-ray and the VHE gamma-ray emission in leptonic scenarios. The LIV phenomenon can then be hinted at measuring the Euclidean distance d_{E} from simultaneous X-ray and gamma-ray flare monitoring. Large values of minimal distance d_{E,min} would directly indicate the influence of non-intrinsic time delays possibly due to LIV in SSC flares. LIV effects can also significantly modify the VHE hysteresis patterns in hardness-intensity diagrams and even change their direction of rotation as compared to the X-ray behaviour. Both observables could be used to discriminate between LIV and intrinsic delays, provided high quality flare observations are available.

The last decade has witnessed a rapid growth of the field of exoplanet discovery and characterisation. However, several big challenges remain, many of which could be addressed using machine learning methodology. For instance, the most prolific method for detecting exoplanets and inferring several of their characteristics, transit photometry, is very sensitive to the presence of stellar spots. The current practice in the literature is to identify the effects of spots visually and correct for them manually or discard the affected data. This paper explores a first step towards fully automating the efficient and precise derivation of transit depths from transit light curves in the presence of stellar spots. The methods and results we present were obtained in the context of the 1st Machine Learning Challenge organized for the European Space Agency's upcoming Ariel mission. We first present the problem, the simulated Ariel-like data and outline the Challenge while identifying best practices for organizing similar challenges in the future. Finally, we present the solutions obtained by the top-5 winning teams, provide their code and discuss their implications. Successful solutions either construct highly non-linear (w.r.t. the raw data) models with minimal preprocessing -deep neural networks and ensemble methods- or amount to obtaining meaningful statistics from the light curves, constructing linear models on which yields comparably good predictive performance.

Given sparse observations of buoy velocities, oceanographers are interested in reconstructing ocean currents away from the buoys and identifying divergences in a current vector field. As a first and modular step, we focus on the time-stationary case - for instance, by restricting to short time periods. Since we expect current velocity to be a continuous but highly non-linear function of spatial location, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that applying a GP with a standard stationary kernel directly to buoy data can struggle at both current reconstruction and divergence identification, due to some physically unrealistic prior assumptions. To better reflect known physical properties of currents, we propose to instead put a standard stationary kernel on the divergence and curl-free components of a vector field obtained through a Helmholtz decomposition. We show that, because this decomposition relates to the original vector field just via mixed partial derivatives, we can still perform inference given the original data with only a small constant multiple of additional computational expense. We illustrate the benefits of our method with theory and experiments on synthetic and real ocean data.

We reanalyze the spectral lag data for GRB 160625B using frequentist inference in order to constrain the energy scale (E_{QG}) of Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV). For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to deal with the astrophysical nuisance parameters. This is in contrast to Bayesian inference implemented in previous works, where marginalization was carried out over the nuisance parameters. We show that with profile likelihood, we do not find a global minimum for chi^2 as a function of E_{QG} below the Planck scale for both linear and quadratic models of LIV, whereas bounded credible intervals were previously obtained using Bayesian inference. Therefore, we can set one-sided lower limits in a straightforward manner. We find that E_{QG} geq 2.55 times 10^{16} GeV and E_{QG} geq 1.85 times 10^7 GeV at 95\% c.l., for linear and quadratic LIV, respectively. Therefore, this is the first proof-of-principles application of profile likelihood method to the analysis of GRB spectral lag data to constrain LIV.

Future surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will observe an order of magnitude more astrophysical transient events than any previous survey before. With this deluge of photometric data, it will be impossible for all such events to be classified by humans alone. Recent efforts have sought to leverage machine learning methods to tackle the challenge of astronomical transient classification, with ever improving success. Transformers are a recently developed deep learning architecture, first proposed for natural language processing, that have shown a great deal of recent success. In this work we develop a new transformer architecture, which uses multi-head self attention at its core, for general multi-variate time-series data. Furthermore, the proposed time-series transformer architecture supports the inclusion of an arbitrary number of additional features, while also offering interpretability. We apply the time-series transformer to the task of photometric classification, minimising the reliance of expert domain knowledge for feature selection, while achieving results comparable to state-of-the-art photometric classification methods. We achieve a logarithmic-loss of 0.507 on imbalanced data in a representative setting using data from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC). Moreover, we achieve a micro-averaged receiver operating characteristic area under curve of 0.98 and micro-averaged precision-recall area under curve of 0.87.

We present the results from four stellar occultations by (486958) Arrokoth, the flyby target of the New Horizons extended mission. Three of the four efforts led to positive detections of the body, and all constrained the presence of rings and other debris, finding none. Twenty-five mobile stations were deployed for 2017 June 3 and augmented by fixed telescopes. There were no positive detections from this effort. The event on 2017 July 10 was observed by SOFIA with one very short chord. Twenty-four deployed stations on 2017 July 17 resulted in five chords that clearly showed a complicated shape consistent with a contact binary with rough dimensions of 20 by 30 km for the overall outline. A visible albedo of 10% was derived from these data. Twenty-two systems were deployed for the fourth event on 2018 Aug 4 and resulted in two chords. The combination of the occultation data and the flyby results provides a significant refinement of the rotation period, now estimated to be 15.9380 pm 0.0005 hours. The occultation data also provided high-precision astrometric constraints on the position of the object that were crucial for supporting the navigation for the New Horizons flyby. This work demonstrates an effective method for obtaining detailed size and shape information and probing for rings and dust on distant Kuiper Belt objects as well as being an important source of positional data that can aid in spacecraft navigation that is particularly useful for small and distant bodies.

We present cosmological analysis of 12 nearby (z<0.06) Type IIP supernovae (SNe IIP) observed with the ROTSE-IIIb telescope. To achieve precise photometry, we present a new image differencing technique that is implemented for the first time on the ROTSE SN photometry pipeline. With this method, we find up to a 20\% increase in the detection efficiency and significant reduction in residual RMS scatter of the SN lightcurves when compared to the previous pipeline performance. We use the published optical spectra and broadband photometry of well studied SNe IIP to establish temporal models for ejecta velocity and photospheric temperature evolution for our SNe IIP population. This study yields measurements that are competitive to other methods even when the data are limited to a single epoch during the photospheric phase of SNe IIP. Using the fully reduced ROTSE photometry and optical spectra, we apply these models to the respective photometric epochs for each SN in the ROTSE IIP sample. This facilitates the use of the Expanding Photosphere Method (EPM) to obtain distance estimates to their respective host galaxies. We then perform cosmological parameter fitting using these EPM distances from which we measure the Hubble constant to be 72.9^{+5.7}_{-4.3}~{rm kms^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}, which is consistent with the standard Lambda CDM model values derived using other independent techniques.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

It is believed that Gradient Descent (GD) induces an implicit bias towards good generalization in training machine learning models. This paper provides a fine-grained analysis of the dynamics of GD for the matrix sensing problem, whose goal is to recover a low-rank ground-truth matrix from near-isotropic linear measurements. It is shown that GD with small initialization behaves similarly to the greedy low-rank learning heuristics (Li et al., 2020) and follows an incremental learning procedure (Gissin et al., 2019): GD sequentially learns solutions with increasing ranks until it recovers the ground truth matrix. Compared to existing works which only analyze the first learning phase for rank-1 solutions, our result provides characterizations for the whole learning process. Moreover, besides the over-parameterized regime that many prior works focused on, our analysis of the incremental learning procedure also applies to the under-parameterized regime. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to confirm our theoretical findings.

We present constraints on the spacetime variation of the fine-structure constant alpha at redshifts 2.5le z<9.5 using JWST emission-line galaxies. The galaxy sample consists of 621 high-quality spectra with strong and narrow [O III] lambdalambda4959,5007 doublet emission lines from 578 galaxies, including 232 spectra at z>5. The [O III] doublet lines are arguably the best emission lines to probe the variation in alpha. We divide our sample into six subsamples based on redshift and calculate the relative variation Deltaalpha/alpha for the individual subsamples. The calculated Deltaalpha/alpha values are consistent with zero within 1sigma at all redshifts, suggesting no time variation in alpha above a level of (1-2) times10^{-4} (1sigma) in the past 13.2 billion years. When the whole sample is combined, the constraint is improved to be Deltaalpha/alpha = (0.2pm0.7) times10^{-4}. We further test the spatial variation in alpha using four subsamples of galaxies in four different directions on the sky. The measured Deltaalpha/alpha values are consistent with zero at a 1sigma level of sim 2times10^{-4}. While the constraints in this work are not as stringent as those from lower-redshift quasar absorption lines in previous studies, this work uses an independent tracer and provides the first constraints on Deltaalpha/alpha at the highest redshifts. With the growing number of emission-line galaxies from JWST, we expect to achieve stronger constraints in the future.

Recent space-borne and ground-based observations provide photometric measurements as time series. The effect of interstellar dust extinction in the near-infrared range is only 10% of that measured in the V band. However, the sensitivity of the light curve shape to the physical parameters in the near-infrared is much lower. So, interpreting these types of data sets requires new approaches like the different large-scale surveys, which create similar problems with big data. Using a selected data set, we provide a method for applying routines implemented in R to extract most information of measurements to determine physical parameters, which can also be used in automatic classification schemes and pipeline processing. We made a multivariate classification of 131 Cepheid light curves (LC) in J, H, and K colors, where all the LCs were represented in 20D parameter space in these colors separately. Performing a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we got an orthogonal coordinate system and squared Euclidean distances between LCs, with 6 significant eigenvalues, reducing the 20-dimension to 6. We also estimated the optimal number of partitions of similar objects and found it to be equal to 7 in each color; their dependence on the period, absolute magnitude, amplitude, and metallicity are also discussed. We computed the Spearman rank correlations, showing that periods and absolute magnitudes correlate with the first three PCs significantly. The first two PC are also found to have a relationship with the amplitude, but the metallicity effects are only marginal. The method shown can be generalized and implemented in unsupervised classification schemes and analysis of mixed and biased samples. The analysis of our Classical Cepheid near-infrared LC sample showed that the J, H, K curves are insufficient for determination of stellar metallicity, with mass being the key factor shaping them.

The present work investigates two properties of level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process X(t) with autocorrelation function R_X(tau). We show firstly that if R_X(tau) admits finite second and fourth derivatives at the origin, the length of up-excursions above a large negative level -gamma is asymptotically exponential as -gamma to -infty. Secondly, assuming that R_X(tau) admits a finite second derivative at the origin and some defined properties, we derive the mean number of crossings as well as the length of successive excursions above two subsequent large levels. The asymptotic results are shown to be effective even for moderate values of crossing level. An application of the developed results is proposed to derive the probability of successive excursions above adjacent levels during a time window.

The main aim of this work is to use a model-independent approach, along with late-time observational probes, to reconstruct the dark energy (DE) equation of state w_{rm DE}(z). Our analysis showed that, for a late time universe, w_{rm DE} deviates from being a constant but in contrast exhibits an oscillatory behavior, hence both quintessence (w_{rm DE}> -1) and phantom (w_{rm DE} < -1) regimes are equally allowed. In order to portray this oscillatory behavior, we explored various parametrizations for the equation of state and identified the closest approximation based on the goodness of fit with the data and the Bayesian evidence analysis. Our findings indicated that while all considered oscillating DE parametrizations provided a better fit to the data, compared to the cosmological constant, they are penalized in the Bayesian evidence analysis due to the additional free parameters. Overall, the present article demonstrates that in the low redshift regime, the equation of state of the DE prefers to be dynamical and oscillating. We anticipate that future cosmological probes will take a stand in this direction.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

This paper describes the 2018 Planck CMB likelihoods, following a hybrid approach similar to the 2015 one, with different approximations at low and high multipoles, and implementing several methodological and analysis refinements. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematics, we can now make full use of the High Frequency Instrument polarization data. The low-multipole 100x143 GHz EE cross-spectrum constrains the reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with with the other low- and high-ell likelihoods). We also update the 2015 baseline low-ell joint TEB likelihood based on the Low Frequency Instrument data, which provides a weaker tau constraint. At high multipoles, a better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (polarization efficiency or PE) allow us to fully use the polarization spectra, improving the constraints on the LambdaCDM parameters by 20 to 30% compared to TT-only constraints. Tests on the modelling of the polarization demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties, the accuracy of the PE modelling being the main limitation. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-ell implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5sigma level. Minor curiosities already present before (differences between ell<800 and ell>800 parameters or the preference for more smoothing of the C_ell peaks) are shown to be driven by the TT power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of polarization. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations. (Abridged)

We present a new approach to constructing and fitting dipoles and higher-order multipoles in synthetic galaxy samples over the sky. Within our Bayesian paradigm, we illustrate that this technique is robust to masked skies, allowing us to make credible inferences about the relative contributions of each multipole. We also show that dipoles can be recovered in surveys with small footprints, determining the requisite source counts required for concrete estimation of the dipole parameters. This work is motivated by recent probes of the cosmic dipole in galaxy catalogues. Namely, the kinematic dipole of the Cosmic Microwave Background, as arising from the motion of our heliocentric frame at approx 370 km,s^{-1}, implies that an analogous dipole should be observed in the number counts of galaxies in flux-density-limited samples. Recent studies have reported a dipole aligning with the kinematic dipole but with an anomalously large amplitude. Accordingly, our new technique will be important as forthcoming galaxy surveys are made available and for revisiting previous data.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

We apply a Gaussian process method to the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 to discover the variable patterns and then to investigate the physical origins of the giant flares. The kernels of stochastically driven damped simple harmonic oscillator (SHO), the damped random-walk (DRW), and Matrm ern-3/2 are respectively used to describe the adaptive-binning gamma-ray light curves of the two flares. Our findings show that both the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 clearly prefer the SHO kernel in the over-damped mode and the Matrm ern-3/2 kernel over the DRW kernel. The resulted SHO and Matrm ern-3/2 power spectral densities (PSDs) are the same for each object, with the index changing from -4 at high frequencies to 0 at low frequencies. The patterns of the two flares are both approaching the critical damping mode with the quality factor Q approx 0.4 (i.e., the damping ratio eta approx 1.25), but with slightly different damping timescales. The characteristic timescale (corresponding to the broken frequency in the PSD) for 3C 454.3 is 2-3 days and 3-5 days for 3C 279. The variable patterns found here suggest that once the system responds to the energy injection disturbance, the release of the energy in the system is finished abruptly. The obtained timescale provides a constraint on the size of energy dissipation region for each source.

This paper presents the results of a Neural Network (NN)-based search for short-duration gravitational-wave transients in data from the third observing run of LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA. The search targets unmodeled transients with durations of milliseconds to a few seconds in the 30-1500 Hz frequency band, without assumptions about the incoming signal direction, polarization, or morphology. Using the Gravitational Wave Anomalous Knowledge (GWAK) method, three compact binary coalescences (CBCs) identified by existing pipelines are successfully detected, along with a range of detector glitches. The algorithm constructs a low-dimensional embedded space to capture the physical features of signals, enabling the detection of CBCs, detector glitches, and unmodeled transients. This study demonstrates GWAK's ability to enhance gravitational-wave searches beyond the limits of existing pipelines, laying the groundwork for future detection strategies.

The emergence of large-scale multi-modal generative models has drastically advanced artificial intelligence, introducing unprecedented levels of performance and functionality. However, optimizing these models remains challenging due to historically isolated paths of model-centric and data-centric developments, leading to suboptimal outcomes and inefficient resource utilization. In response, we present a novel sandbox suite tailored for integrated data-model co-development. This sandbox provides a comprehensive experimental platform, enabling rapid iteration and insight-driven refinement of both data and models. Our proposed "Probe-Analyze-Refine" workflow, validated through applications on state-of-the-art LLaVA-like and DiT based models, yields significant performance boosts, such as topping the VBench leaderboard. We also uncover fruitful insights gleaned from exhaustive benchmarks, shedding light on the critical interplay between data quality, diversity, and model behavior. With the hope of fostering deeper understanding and future progress in multi-modal data and generative modeling, our codes, datasets, and models are maintained and accessible at https://github.com/modelscope/data-juicer/blob/main/docs/Sandbox.md.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are important tools to model physical systems, and including them into machine learning models is an important way of incorporating physical knowledge. Given any system of linear PDEs with constant coefficients, we propose a family of Gaussian process (GP) priors, which we call EPGP, such that all realizations are exact solutions of this system. We apply the Ehrenpreis-Palamodov fundamental principle, which works like a non-linear Fourier transform, to construct GP kernels mirroring standard spectral methods for GPs. Our approach can infer probable solutions of linear PDE systems from any data such as noisy measurements, or pointwise defined initial and boundary conditions. Constructing EPGP-priors is algorithmic, generally applicable, and comes with a sparse version (S-EPGP) that learns the relevant spectral frequencies and works better for big data sets. We demonstrate our approach on three families of systems of PDE, the heat equation, wave equation, and Maxwell's equations, where we improve upon the state of the art in computation time and precision, in some experiments by several orders of magnitude.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

The measurements of the temperature and polarisation anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by the ESA Planck mission have strongly supported the current concordance model of cosmology. However, the latest cosmological data release from ESA Planck mission still has a powerful potential to test new data science algorithms and inference techniques. In this paper, we use advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, such as Neural Networks (NNs), to discern among different underlying cosmological models at the angular power spectra level, using both temperature and polarisation Planck 18 data. We test two different models beyond LambdaCDM: a modified gravity model: the Hu-Sawicki model, and an alternative inflationary model: a feature-template in the primordial power spectrum. Furthermore, we also implemented an interpretability method based on SHAP values to evaluate the learning process and identify the most relevant elements that drive our architecture to certain outcomes. We find that our NN is able to distinguish between different angular power spectra successfully for both alternative models and LambdaCDM. We conclude by explaining how archival scientific data has still a strong potential to test novel data science algorithms that are interesting for the next generation of cosmological experiments.

Learning rate schedules used in practice bear little resemblance to those recommended by theory. We close much of this theory/practice gap, and as a consequence are able to derive new problem-adaptive learning rate schedules. Our key technical contribution is a refined analysis of learning rate schedules for a wide class of optimization algorithms (including SGD). In contrast to most prior works that study the convergence of the average iterate, we study the last iterate, which is what most people use in practice. When considering only worst-case analysis, our theory predicts that the best choice is the linear decay schedule: a popular choice in practice that sets the stepsize proportionally to 1 - t/T, where t is the current iteration and T is the total number of steps. To go beyond this worst-case analysis, we use the observed gradient norms to derive schedules refined for any particular task. These refined schedules exhibit learning rate warm-up and rapid learning rate annealing near the end of training. Ours is the first systematic approach to automatically yield both of these properties. We perform the most comprehensive evaluation of learning rate schedules to date, evaluating across 10 diverse deep learning problems, a series of LLMs, and a suite of logistic regression problems. We validate that overall, the linear-decay schedule matches or outperforms all commonly used default schedules including cosine annealing, and that our schedule refinement method gives further improvements.

We derive the discovery potential of a leptophilic Z', and a Z' rising from a SU(3) times SU(3)_L times U(1)_N symmetry at the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC), which is planned to host e^+e^- collisions with 3 TeV center-of-mass energy. We perform an optimized selection cut strategy on the transverse momentum, pseudorapidity, and invariant mass of the dileptons in order to enhance the collider sensitivity. We find that CLIC can potentially reach a 5sigma signal of a 1-3~TeV leptophilic Z' with less than 1fb^{-1} of integrated luminosity. As for the Z' belonging to a 3-3-1 symmetry, CLIC will offer a complementary probe with the potential to impose M_{Z^prime} > 3~TeV with L=2fb^{-1}.

We develop a linear perturbative formalism to compute the response of an inhomogeneous stellar disk embedded in a non-responsive dark matter halo to perturbations like bars, spiral arms and satellite galaxy encounters. Without self-gravity to reinforce it, the response of a Fourier mode phase mixes away due to an intrinsic spread in the vertical (Omega_z), radial (Omega_r) and azimuthal (Omega_phi) frequencies, giving rise to local phase-space spirals. Collisional diffusion due to scattering of stars by structures like giant molecular clouds causes super-exponential damping of the phase-spiral amplitude. The z-v_z phase-spiral is 1-armed (2-armed) for vertically anti-symmetric (symmetric) bending (breathing) modes. Only transient perturbations with timescales (tau_{P}) comparable to the vertical oscillation period (tau_z sim 1/Omega_z) trigger z-v_z phase-spirals. Each (n,l,m) mode of the response to impulsive (tau_{P}<tau=1/(nOmega_z+lOmega_r+mOmega_phi)) perturbations is power law (sim tau_{P}/tau) suppressed, but that to adiabatic (tau_{P}>tau) perturbations is exponentially weak (sim left[-left(tau_{mathrm{P}/tauright)^alpharight]}) except resonant (tauto infty) modes. Slower (tau_{P}>tau_z) perturbations, e.g., distant encounters with satellite galaxies, induce stronger bending modes. If the Gaia phase-spiral was triggered by a satellite, Sagittarius is the leading contender as it dominates the Solar neighborhood response of the Milky Way disk to satellite encounters. However, survival against collisional damping necessitates that the impact occurred within sim 0.6-0.7 Gyr ago. We discuss how the detailed galactic potential dictates the phase-spiral shape: phase mixing occurs slower and phase-spirals are less wound in the outer disk and in presence of an ambient halo.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

We study the conformal bootstrap of 1D CFTs on the straight Maldacena-Wilson line in 4D {cal N}=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. We introduce an improved truncation scheme with an 'OPE tail' approximation and use it to reproduce the 'bootstrability' results of Cavagli\`a et al. for the OPE-coefficients squared of the first three unprotected operators. For example, for the first OPE-coefficient squared at 't Hooft coupling (4pi)^2, linear-functional methods with two sum rules from integrated correlators give the rigorous result 0.294014873 pm 4.88 cdot 10^{-8}, whereas our methods give with machine-precision computations 0.294014228 pm 6.77 cdot 10^{-7}. For our numerical searches, we benchmark the Reinforcement Learning Soft Actor-Critic algorithm against an Interior Point Method algorithm (IPOPT) and comment on the merits of each algorithm.

We report long baseline interferometric observations with the CHARA Array that resolve six previously known double-lined spectroscopic binary systems in the Hyades cluster, with orbital periods ranging from 3 to 358 days: HD 27483, HD 283882, HD 26874, HD 27149, HD 30676, and HD 28545. We combine those observations with new and existing radial-velocity measurements, to infer the dynamical masses for the components as well as the orbital parallaxes. For most stars the masses are determined to better than 1%. Our work significantly increases the number of systems with mass determinations in the cluster. We find that while current models of stellar evolution for the age and metallicity of the Hyades are able to reproduce the overall shape of the empirical mass-luminosity relation, they overestimate the V-band fluxes by about 0.1 mag between 0.5 and 1.4 M_{odot}. The disagreement is smaller in H, and near zero in K, and depends somewhat on the model. We also make use of the TESS light curves to estimate rotation periods for our targets, and detect numerous flares in one of them (HD 283882), estimating an average flaring rate of 0.44 events per day.

We perform an empirical study of the behaviour of deep networks when fully linearizing some of its feature channels through a sparsity prior on the overall number of nonlinear units in the network. In experiments on image classification and machine translation tasks, we investigate how much we can simplify the network function towards linearity before performance collapses. First, we observe a significant performance gap when reducing nonlinearity in the network function early on as opposed to late in training, in-line with recent observations on the time-evolution of the data-dependent NTK. Second, we find that after training, we are able to linearize a significant number of nonlinear units while maintaining a high performance, indicating that much of a network's expressivity remains unused but helps gradient descent in early stages of training. To characterize the depth of the resulting partially linearized network, we introduce a measure called average path length, representing the average number of active nonlinearities encountered along a path in the network graph. Under sparsity pressure, we find that the remaining nonlinear units organize into distinct structures, forming core-networks of near constant effective depth and width, which in turn depend on task difficulty.

The lottery ticket hypothesis (LTH) has increased attention to pruning neural networks at initialization. We study this problem in the linear setting. We show that finding a sparse mask at initialization is equivalent to the sketching problem introduced for efficient matrix multiplication. This gives us tools to analyze the LTH problem and gain insights into it. Specifically, using the mask found at initialization, we bound the approximation error of the pruned linear model at the end of training. We theoretically justify previous empirical evidence that the search for sparse networks may be data independent. By using the sketching perspective, we suggest a generic improvement to existing algorithms for pruning at initialization, which we show to be beneficial in the data-independent case.

We present a comprehensive evaluation of proprietary and open-weights large language models using the first astronomy-specific benchmarking dataset. This dataset comprises 4,425 multiple-choice questions curated from the Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, covering a broad range of astrophysical topics. Our analysis examines model performance across various astronomical subfields and assesses response calibration, crucial for potential deployment in research environments. Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperforms competitors by up to 4.6 percentage points, achieving 85.0% accuracy. For proprietary models, we observed a universal reduction in cost every 3-to-12 months to achieve similar score in this particular astronomy benchmark. Open-source models have rapidly improved, with LLaMA-3-70b (80.6%) and Qwen-2-72b (77.7%) now competing with some of the best proprietary models. We identify performance variations across topics, with non-English-focused models generally struggling more in exoplanet-related fields, stellar astrophysics, and instrumentation related questions. These challenges likely stem from less abundant training data, limited historical context, and rapid recent developments in these areas. This pattern is observed across both open-weights and proprietary models, with regional dependencies evident, highlighting the impact of training data diversity on model performance in specialized scientific domains. Top-performing models demonstrate well-calibrated confidence, with correlations above 0.9 between confidence and correctness, though they tend to be slightly underconfident. The development for fast, low-cost inference of open-weights models presents new opportunities for affordable deployment in astronomy. The rapid progress observed suggests that LLM-driven research in astronomy may become feasible in the near future.

Harmonic retrieval techniques are the foundation of radio channel sounding, estimation and modeling. This paper introduces a Deep Learning approach for two-dimensional spectral estimation from frequency and time samples of a radio channel transfer function. Our work can estimate two-dimensional parameters from a signal containing an unknown number of paths. In contrast to existing deep learning-based methods, the signal parameters are not estimated via classification but instead in a quasi-grid-free manner. This alleviates the bias, spectral leakage, and ghost targets that grid-based approaches inherently produce. The proposed architecture also reliably estimates the number of spectral components in the measurement. Hence, the architecture jointly solves the model order selection problem and the parameter estimation task. Additionally, we propose a multi-channel windowing of the data during preprocessing, increasing the resulting estimator's robustness. We verify the performance compared to existing harmonic retrieval methods and also show how it can be integrated into an existing maximum likelihood estimator for efficient initialization of a gradient-based iteration.

We study the sparse phase retrieval problem, which seeks to recover a sparse signal from a limited set of magnitude-only measurements. In contrast to prevalent sparse phase retrieval algorithms that primarily use first-order methods, we propose an innovative second-order algorithm that employs a Newton-type method with hard thresholding. This algorithm overcomes the linear convergence limitations of first-order methods while preserving their hallmark per-iteration computational efficiency. We provide theoretical guarantees that our algorithm converges to the s-sparse ground truth signal x^{natural} in R^n (up to a global sign) at a quadratic convergence rate after at most O(log (Vertx^{natural} Vert /x_{min}^{natural})) iterations, using Omega(s^2log n) Gaussian random samples. Numerical experiments show that our algorithm achieves a significantly faster convergence rate than state-of-the-art methods.

This paper rigorously shows how over-parameterization changes the convergence behaviors of gradient descent (GD) for the matrix sensing problem, where the goal is to recover an unknown low-rank ground-truth matrix from near-isotropic linear measurements. First, we consider the symmetric setting with the symmetric parameterization where M^* in R^{n times n} is a positive semi-definite unknown matrix of rank r ll n, and one uses a symmetric parameterization XX^top to learn M^*. Here X in R^{n times k} with k > r is the factor matrix. We give a novel Omega (1/T^2) lower bound of randomly initialized GD for the over-parameterized case (k >r) where T is the number of iterations. This is in stark contrast to the exact-parameterization scenario (k=r) where the convergence rate is exp (-Omega (T)). Next, we study asymmetric setting where M^* in R^{n_1 times n_2} is the unknown matrix of rank r ll min{n_1,n_2}, and one uses an asymmetric parameterization FG^top to learn M^* where F in R^{n_1 times k} and G in R^{n_2 times k}. Building on prior work, we give a global exact convergence result of randomly initialized GD for the exact-parameterization case (k=r) with an exp (-Omega(T)) rate. Furthermore, we give the first global exact convergence result for the over-parameterization case (k>r) with an exp(-Omega(alpha^2 T)) rate where alpha is the initialization scale. This linear convergence result in the over-parameterization case is especially significant because one can apply the asymmetric parameterization to the symmetric setting to speed up from Omega (1/T^2) to linear convergence. On the other hand, we propose a novel method that only modifies one step of GD and obtains a convergence rate independent of alpha, recovering the rate in the exact-parameterization case.

One puzzling artifact in machine learning dubbed grokking is where delayed generalization is achieved tenfolds of iterations after near perfect overfitting to the training data. Focusing on the long delay itself on behalf of machine learning practitioners, our goal is to accelerate generalization of a model under grokking phenomenon. By regarding a series of gradients of a parameter over training iterations as a random signal over time, we can spectrally decompose the parameter trajectories under gradient descent into two components: the fast-varying, overfitting-yielding component and the slow-varying, generalization-inducing component. This analysis allows us to accelerate the grokking phenomenon more than times 50 with only a few lines of code that amplifies the slow-varying components of gradients. The experiments show that our algorithm applies to diverse tasks involving images, languages, and graphs, enabling practical availability of this peculiar artifact of sudden generalization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ironjr/grokfast.

In this work, we aim to estimate the stellar parameters of the primary (Aa) by performing asteroseismic analysis on its period-spacing pattern. We use the C-3PO neural network to perform asteroseismic modelling of the g-mode period-spacing pattern of Aa, discussing the interplay of this information with external constraints from spectroscopy (T_{rm eff} and log(g)) and eclipse modelling (R). To estimate the level of uncertainty due to different frequency extraction and pattern identification processes, we consider four different variations on the period-spacing patterns. To better understand the correlations between and the uncertainty structure of our parameter estimates, we also employed a classical, parameter-based MCMC grid search on four different stellar grids. The best-fitting, externally constrained model to the period-spacing pattern arrives at estimates of the stellar properties for Aa of: M=1.51 pm 0.05 M_odot, X_c =0.43 pm 0.04, R=1.66 pm 0.1 R_odot, f_{rm ov}=0.010, Omega_c=1.58 pm 0.01 d^{-1} with rigid rotation to within the measurement errors, log(T_{rm eff})=3.856 pm 0.008 dex, log(g)=4.18 pm 0.04 dex, and log(L)=0.809 pm 0.005 dex, which agree well with previous measurements from eclipse modelling, spectroscopy, and the Gaia DR3 luminosity. We find that the near-core properties of the best-fitting asteroseismic models are consistent with external constraints from eclipse modelling and spectroscopy. Aa appears to be a typical example of a gamma Dor star, fitting well within existing populations. We find that Aa is quasi-rigidly rotating to within the uncertainties, and note that the asteroseismic age estimate for Aa (1100 pm 100 Myr) is considerably older than the young (35 Myr) age implied by previous isochrone fits to the B binary in the literature. Our MCMC parameter-based grid-search agrees well with our pattern-modelling approach.

The presence of linear paths in parameter space between two different network solutions in certain cases, i.e., linear mode connectivity (LMC), has garnered interest from both theoretical and practical fronts. There has been significant research that either practically designs algorithms catered for connecting networks by adjusting for the permutation symmetries as well as some others that more theoretically construct paths through which networks can be connected. Yet, the core reasons for the occurrence of LMC, when in fact it does occur, in the highly non-convex loss landscapes of neural networks are far from clear. In this work, we take a step towards understanding it by providing a model of how the loss landscape needs to behave topographically for LMC (or the lack thereof) to manifest. Concretely, we present a `mountainside and ridge' perspective that helps to neatly tie together different geometric features that can be spotted in the loss landscape along the training runs. We also complement this perspective by providing a theoretical analysis of the barrier height, for which we provide empirical support, and which additionally extends as a faithful predictor of layer-wise LMC. We close with a toy example that provides further intuition on how barriers arise in the first place, all in all, showcasing the larger aim of the work -- to provide a working model of the landscape and its topography for the occurrence of LMC.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Evaluating anomaly detection algorithms in time series data is critical as inaccuracies can lead to flawed decision-making in various domains where real-time analytics and data-driven strategies are essential. Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies, such as early and delayed detections. We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals. PATE uses proximity-based weighting considering buffer zones around anomaly intervals, enabling a more detailed and informed assessment of a detection. Using these weights, PATE computes a weighted version of the area under the Precision and Recall curve. Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations than other evaluation metrics. We also tested several state-of-the-art anomaly detectors across various benchmark datasets using the PATE evaluation scheme. The results show that a common metric like Point-Adjusted F1 Score fails to characterize the detection performances well, and that PATE is able to provide a more fair model comparison. By introducing PATE, we redefine the understanding of model efficacy that steers future studies toward developing more effective and accurate detection models.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

When solving inverse problems, it is increasingly popular to use pre-trained diffusion models as plug-and-play priors. This framework can accommodate different forward models without re-training while preserving the generative capability of diffusion models. Despite their success in many imaging inverse problems, most existing methods rely on privileged information such as derivative, pseudo-inverse, or full knowledge about the forward model. This reliance poses a substantial limitation that restricts their use in a wide range of problems where such information is unavailable, such as in many scientific applications. To address this issue, we propose Ensemble Kalman Diffusion Guidance (EnKG) for diffusion models, a derivative-free approach that can solve inverse problems by only accessing forward model evaluations and a pre-trained diffusion model prior. We study the empirical effectiveness of our method across various inverse problems, including scientific settings such as inferring fluid flows and astronomical objects, which are highly non-linear inverse problems that often only permit black-box access to the forward model.

In the era of foundation models with huge pre-training budgets, the downstream tasks have been shifted to the narrative of efficient and fast adaptation. For classification-based tasks in the domain of computer vision, the two most efficient approaches have been linear probing (LP) and visual prompting/reprogramming (VP); the former aims to learn a classifier in the form of a linear head on the features extracted by the pre-trained model, while the latter maps the input data to the domain of the source data on which the model was originally pre-trained on. Although extensive studies have demonstrated the differences between LP and VP in terms of downstream performance, we explore the capabilities of the two aforementioned methods via the sparsity axis: (a) Data sparsity: the impact of few-shot adaptation and (b) Model sparsity: the impact of lottery tickets (LT). We demonstrate that LT are not universal reprogrammers, i.e., for certain target datasets, reprogramming an LT yields significantly lower performance than the reprogrammed dense model although their corresponding upstream performance is similar. Further, we demonstrate that the calibration of dense models is always superior to that of their lottery ticket counterparts under both LP and VP regimes. Our empirical study opens a new avenue of research into VP for sparse models and encourages further understanding of the performance beyond the accuracy achieved by VP under constraints of sparsity. Code and logs can be accessed at https://github.com/landskape-ai/Reprogram_LT.

The X-ray polarization observations made possible with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) offer new ways of probing high-energy emission processes in astrophysical jets from blazars. Here we report on the first X-ray polarization observation of the blazar S4 0954+65 in a high optical and X-ray state. During our multi-wavelength campaign on the source, we detected an optical flare whose peak coincided with the peak of an X-ray flare. This optical-X-ray flare most likely took place in a feature moving along the parsec-scale jet, imaged at 43 GHz by the Very Long Baseline Array. The 43 GHz polarization angle of the moving component underwent a rotation near the time of the flare. In the optical band, prior to the IXPE observation, we measured the polarization angle to be aligned with the jet axis. In contrast, during the optical flare the optical polarization angle was perpendicular to the jet axis; after the flare, it reverted to being parallel to the jet axis. Due to the smooth behavior of the optical polarization angle during the flare, we favor shocks as the main acceleration mechanism. We also infer that the ambient magnetic field lines in the jet were parallel to the jet position angle. The average degree of optical polarization during the IXPE observation was (14.3pm4.1)%. Despite the flare, we only detected an upper limit of 14% (at 3sigma level) on the X-ray polarization degree; although a reasonable assumption on the X-ray polarization angle results in an upper limit of 8.8% (3sigma). We model the spectral energy distribution (SED) and spectral polarization distribution (SPD) of S4 0954+65 with leptonic (synchrotron self-Compton) and hadronic (proton and pair synchrotron) models. The constraints we obtain with our combined multi-wavelength polarization observations and SED modeling tentatively disfavor hadronic models for the X-ray emission in S4 0954+65.

Here we present 1701 light curves of 1550 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) that will be used to infer cosmological parameters as part of the Pantheon+ SN analysis and the SH0ES (Supernovae and H0 for the Equation of State of dark energy) distance-ladder analysis. This effort is one part of a series of works that perform an extensive review of redshifts, peculiar velocities, photometric calibration, and intrinsic-scatter models of SNe Ia. The total number of light curves, which are compiled across 18 different surveys, is a significant increase from the first Pantheon analysis (1048 SNe), particularly at low redshift (z). Furthermore, unlike in the Pantheon analysis, we include light curves for SNe with z<0.01 such that SN systematic covariance can be included in a joint measurement of the Hubble constant (H_0) and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter (w). We use the large sample to compare properties of 151 SNe Ia observed by multiple surveys and 12 pairs/triplets of "SN siblings" - SNe found in the same host galaxy. Distance measurements, application of bias corrections, and inference of cosmological parameters are discussed in the companion paper by Brout et al. (2022b), and the determination of H_0 is discussed by Riess et al. (2022). These analyses will measure w with sim3% precision and H_0 with 1 km/s/Mpc precision.

State space models (SSMs) have shown remarkable empirical performance on many long sequence modeling tasks, but a theoretical understanding of these models is still lacking. In this work, we study the learning dynamics of linear SSMs to understand how covariance structure in data, latent state size, and initialization affect the evolution of parameters throughout learning with gradient descent. We show that focusing on the learning dynamics in the frequency domain affords analytical solutions under mild assumptions, and we establish a link between one-dimensional SSMs and the dynamics of deep linear feed-forward networks. Finally, we analyze how latent state over-parameterization affects convergence time and describe future work in extending our results to the study of deep SSMs with nonlinear connections. This work is a step toward a theory of learning dynamics in deep state space models.

Cosmological data probe massive neutrinos via their effects on the geometry of the Universe and the growth of structure, both of which are degenerate with the late-time expansion history. We clarify the nature of these degeneracies and the individual roles of both probes in neutrino mass inference. Geometry is strongly sensitive to neutrino masses: within LambdaCDM, the primary cosmic microwave background anisotropies alone impose that the matter fraction Omega_m must increase fivefold with increasing neutrino mass. Moreover, large-scale structure observables, like weak lensing of the CMB, are dimensionless and thus depend not on the matter density (as often quoted) but in fact the matter fraction. We explore the consequential impact of this distinction on the interplay between probes of structure, low-redshift distances, and CMB anisotropies. We derive constraints on the neutrino's masses independently from their suppression of structure and impact on geometry, showing that the latter is at least as important as the former. While the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument's recent baryon acoustic oscillation data place stringent bounds largely deriving from their geometric incompatibility with massive neutrinos, all recent type Ia supernova datasets drive marginal preferences for nonzero neutrino masses because they prefer substantially larger matter fractions. Recent CMB lensing data, however, neither exclude neutrinos' suppression of structure nor constrain it strongly enough to discriminate between mass hierarchies. Current data thus evince not a need for modified dynamics of neutrino perturbations or structure growth but rather an inconsistent compatibility with massive neutrinos' impact on the expansion history. We identify two of DESI's measurements that strongly influence its constraints, and we also discuss neutrino mass measurements in models that alter the sound horizon.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

The search for heavy resonances beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is a key objective at the LHC. While the recent use of advanced deep neural networks for boosted-jet tagging significantly enhances the sensitivity of dedicated searches, it is limited to specific final states, leaving vast potential BSM phase space underexplored. We introduce a novel experimental method, Signature-Oriented Pre-training for Heavy-resonance ObservatioN (Sophon), which leverages deep learning to cover an extensive number of boosted final states. Pre-trained on the comprehensive JetClass-II dataset, the Sophon model learns intricate jet signatures, ensuring the optimal constructions of various jet tagging discriminates and enabling high-performance transfer learning capabilities. We show that the method can not only push widespread model-specific searches to their sensitivity frontier, but also greatly improve model-agnostic approaches, accelerating LHC resonance searches in a broad sense.

Strong gravitational lensing of variable sources, such as quasars or supernovae, can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through a technique known as "time-delay cosmography''. Competitive constraints on the Hubble constant have been achieved with electromagnetic observations of lensed quasars and lensed supernovae. Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy may open up a new channel for time-delay cosmography with GW signal replacing the electromagnetic (EM) one. We highlight the similarities of using GW signals to be applied to time-delay cosmography compared to EM signal. We then discuss key differences between GW and EM signals and their resulting advantages and inconveniences from the angle of the current state-of-the-art using quasars and lensed supernovae for time-delay cosmography. We identify the astrometric precision requirement of the images as a key challenge to overcome and highlight the potentially significant impact that near-perfect time-delay measurements of lensed GWs can bring to the table.

Blazars, a class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) powered by supermassive black holes, are known for their remarkable variability across multiple timescales and wavelengths. With advancements in both ground- and space-based telescopes, our understanding of AGN central engines has significantly improved. However, the mechanisms driving this variability remain elusive, and continue to fascinate both theorists and observers alike. The primary objective of this study is to constrain the X-ray variability properties of the TeV blazar PKS 2155-304. We conduct a comprehensive X-ray spectral and timing analysis, focusing on both long-term and intra-day variability. This analysis uses data from 22 epochs of XMM-Newton EPIC-pn observations, collected over 15 years (2000-2014). To investigate the variability of the source, we applied both timing and spectral analyses. For the timing analysis, we estimated fractional variability, variability amplitude, minimum variability timescales, flux distribution, and power spectral density (PSD). In the spectral analysis, we fitted the X-ray spectra using power-law, log-parabola, and broken power-law (BPL) models to determine the best-fitting parameters. Additionally, we studied the hardness ratio (HR). We observed moderate intra-day variability in most of the light curves. Seven out of the twenty-two observations showed a clear bimodal flux distribution, indicating the presence of two distinct flux states. Our analysis revealed a variable power-law PSD slope. Most HR plots did not show significant variation with flux, except for one observation (OBSID 0124930501), where HR increased with flux (Count/s). The fitted X-ray spectra favored the BPL model for the majority of observations. The findings of this work shed light on the intraday variability of blazars, providing insights into the non-thermal jet processes that drive the observed flux variations.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

We performed variability analysis of the multiwavelength light curves for the flat-spectrum radio quasar PKS 0727-11. Using the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram, we identified a possible quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) of sim 168.6 days (persisted for 6 cycles, with a significance of 3.8sigma) in the gamma-ray light curve during the flare period (MJD 54687-55738). It is the first time that periodic variations have been detected in this source, and further supported by other methods: weighted wavelet z-transform, phase dispersion minimization, REDFIT, autoregressive integrated moving average model, and structure function analysis. Cross-correlation analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between multi-band light variations, indicating that gamma-ray and radio flares may originate from the same disturbance, and the distance between the emission regions of gamma-ray and radio flares is calculated based on the time lag. We demonstrate that QPO arising from the non-ballistic helical jet motion driven by the orbital motion in a supermassive binary black hole is a plausible physical explanation. In this scenario, the estimated mass of the primary black hole is Msim3.66times10^8-5.79times10^{9}M_odot.

This paper presents optical night sky brightness measurements from the stratosphere using CCD images taken with the Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT). The data used for estimating the backgrounds were obtained during three commissioning flights in 2016, 2018, and 2019 at altitudes ranging from 28 km to 34 km above sea level. For a valid comparison of the brightness measurements from the stratosphere with measurements from mountain-top ground-based observatories (taken at zenith on the darkest moonless night at high Galactic and high ecliptic latitudes), the stratospheric brightness levels were zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light subtracted, and the airglow brightness was projected to zenith. The stratospheric brightness was measured around 5.5 hours, 3 hours, and 2 hours before the local sunrise time in 2016, 2018, and 2019 respectively. The B, V, R, and I brightness levels in 2016 were 2.7, 1.0, 1.1, and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The B, V, and R brightness levels in 2018 were 1.3, 1.0, and 1.3 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The U and I brightness levels in 2019 were 0.1 mag arcsec^{-2} brighter than the darkest ground-based measurements, whereas the B and V brightness levels were 0.8 and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The lower sky brightness levels, stable photometry, and lower atmospheric absorption make stratospheric observations from a balloon-borne platform a unique tool for astronomy. We plan to continue this work in a future mid-latitude long duration balloon flight with SuperBIT.

The reionization of helium is thought to occur at 2.5lesssim zlesssim4, marking the last phase transition and final global heating event of the intergalactic medium (IGM). Since it is driven by rare quasars, helium reionization should give rise to strong temperature fluctuations in the IGM between neutral and recently-ionized regions of order sigma (ln T) sim Delta T/T = 20-50%. We introduce a novel method to search for reionization-induced temperature fluctuations in the IGM by using the effective optical depths of the Lyman-alpha forest towards a large number of background quasars. Higher IGM temperatures give rise to lower effective optical depths in the Lyman-alpha forest, implying that temperature fluctuations will broaden the observed optical depth distribution. We measured the distributions of effective Lyman-alpha forest optical depths across 71 X-Shooter spectra from the XQ-100 survey in four redshift bins from z=3.76 to z=4.19 and compared them to a large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. A good agreement is found between the observations and the simulation, which does not include temperature fluctuations; therefore, we do not detect a signature of helium reionization. We then post-process the simulations to include an increasing amount of temperature fluctuations until the model becomes inconsistent with the observations. We obtain tight constraints on sigma (ln T) < 0.29 (<0.40) at 2 sigma (3 sigma) at z=3.76 when averaging over scales of 100 comoving Mpc, and weaker constraints for higher redshifts and smaller scales. Our constraints are the tightest to date, and imply that either the IGM temperature contrast caused by helium reionization is less than sim30%, or that the process has not yet significantly started at z=3.76.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

We develop a novel way to probe subgalactic-scale matter distribution with diffractive lensing on gravitational waves. Five-year observations from Einstein Telescope and DECIGO are expected to probe k= 10^5sim 10^8 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1} down to P(k) = 10^{-16} sim 10^{-14} ,{rm Mpc}^3 level. These results can be interpreted in terms of primordial black holes in the range M_{rm PBH} gtrsim 10^{-3}M_odot down to f_{rm PBH} = 10^{-6} level, or QCD axion minihalos in the range m_a = 10^{-3} sim 10^{-12} ,{rm eV}. A key result of the paper is the approximate relation between the scale k and the gravitational wave frequency f, derived in an ensemble of `multi-lensing' events. This relation enables direct measurement of the power spectrum at specific scales, with sensitivities characterized by model-independent kernels delta P(k). Additionally, we delineate the statistical properties of `multi-lensing' based on the `Fresnel number' N_F. When N_F cal O(1), the statistical significance can be approximately calculated by Variance of lensing effects, which is directly related to the power spectrum among other moments of matter distribution.

Large linear systems play an important role in high-energy theory, appearing in amplitude bootstraps and during integral reduction. This paper introduces FiniteFieldSolve, a general-purpose toolkit for exactly solving large linear systems over the rationals. The solver interfaces directly with Mathematica, is straightforward to install, and seamlessly replaces Mathematica's native solvers. In testing, FiniteFieldSolve is approximately two orders of magnitude faster than Mathematica and uses an order of magnitude less memory. The package also compares favorably against other public solvers in FiniteFieldSolve's intended use cases. As the name of the package suggests, solutions are obtained via well-known finite field methods. These methods suffer from introducing an inordinate number of modulo (or integer division) operations with respect to different primes. By automatically recompiling itself for each prime, FiniteFieldSolve converts the division operations into much faster combinations of instructions, dramatically improving performance. The technique of compiling the prime can be applied to any finite field solver, where the time savings will be solver dependent. The operation of the package is illustrated through a detailed example of an amplitude bootstrap.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a promising technique for decomposing language model activations into interpretable linear features. However, current SAEs fall short of completely explaining model performance, resulting in "dark matter": unexplained variance in activations. This work investigates dark matter as an object of study in its own right. Surprisingly, we find that much of SAE dark matter--about half of the error vector itself and >90% of its norm--can be linearly predicted from the initial activation vector. Additionally, we find that the scaling behavior of SAE error norms at a per token level is remarkably predictable: larger SAEs mostly struggle to reconstruct the same contexts as smaller SAEs. We build on the linear representation hypothesis to propose models of activations that might lead to these observations, including postulating a new type of "introduced error"; these insights imply that the part of the SAE error vector that cannot be linearly predicted ("nonlinear" error) might be fundamentally different from the linearly predictable component. To validate this hypothesis, we empirically analyze nonlinear SAE error and show that 1) it contains fewer not yet learned features, 2) SAEs trained on it are quantitatively worse, 3) it helps predict SAE per-token scaling behavior, and 4) it is responsible for a proportional amount of the downstream increase in cross entropy loss when SAE activations are inserted into the model. Finally, we examine two methods to reduce nonlinear SAE error at a fixed sparsity: inference time gradient pursuit, which leads to a very slight decrease in nonlinear error, and linear transformations from earlier layer SAE outputs, which leads to a larger reduction.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

With the advent of new spectroscopic surveys from ground and space, observing up to hundreds of millions of galaxies, spectra classification will become overwhelming for standard analysis techniques. To prepare for this challenge, we introduce a family of deep learning tools to classify features in one-dimensional spectra. As the first application of these Galaxy Spectra neural Networks (GaSNets), we focus on tools specialized at identifying emission lines from strongly lensed star-forming galaxies in the eBOSS spectra. We first discuss the training and testing of these networks and define a threshold probability, PL, of 95% for the high quality event detection. Then, using a previous set of spectroscopically selected strong lenses from eBOSS, confirmed with HST, we estimate a completeness of ~80% as the fraction of lenses recovered above the adopted PL. We finally apply the GaSNets to ~1.3M spectra to collect a first list of ~430 new high quality candidates identified with deep learning applied to spectroscopy and visually graded as highly probable real events. A preliminary check against ground-based observations tentatively shows that this sample has a confirmation rate of 38%, in line with previous samples selected with standard (no deep learning) classification tools and follow-up by Hubble Space Telescope. This first test shows that machine learning can be efficiently extended to feature recognition in the wavelength space, which will be crucial for future surveys like 4MOST, DESI, Euclid, and the Chinese Space Station Telescope (CSST).

We present the first framework to solve linear inverse problems leveraging pre-trained latent diffusion models. Previously proposed algorithms (such as DPS and DDRM) only apply to pixel-space diffusion models. We theoretically analyze our algorithm showing provable sample recovery in a linear model setting. The algorithmic insight obtained from our analysis extends to more general settings often considered in practice. Experimentally, we outperform previously proposed posterior sampling algorithms in a wide variety of problems including random inpainting, block inpainting, denoising, deblurring, destriping, and super-resolution.

X-ray observing facilities, such as the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the eROSITA, have detected millions of astronomical sources associated with high-energy phenomena. The arrival of photons as a function of time follows a Poisson process and can vary by orders-of-magnitude, presenting obstacles for common tasks such as source classification, physical property derivation, and anomaly detection. Previous work has either failed to directly capture the Poisson nature of the data or only focuses on Poisson rate function reconstruction. In this work, we present Poisson Process AutoDecoder (PPAD). PPAD is a neural field decoder that maps fixed-length latent features to continuous Poisson rate functions across energy band and time via unsupervised learning. PPAD reconstructs the rate function and yields a representation at the same time. We demonstrate the efficacy of PPAD via reconstruction, regression, classification and anomaly detection experiments using the Chandra Source Catalog.

With the aim of testing massive gravity in the context of black hole physics, we investigate the gravitational radiation emitted by a massive particle plunging into a Schwarzschild black hole from slightly below the innermost stable circular orbit. To do so, we first construct the quasinormal and quasibound resonance spectra of the spin-2 massive field for odd and even parity. Then, we compute the waveforms produced by the plunging particle and study their spectral content. This allows us to highlight and interpret important phenomena in the plunge regime, including (i) the excitation of quasibound states, with particular emphasis on the amplification and slow decay of the post-ringdown phase of the even-parity dipolar mode due to harmonic resonance; (ii) during the adiabatic phase, the waveform emitted by the plunging particle is very well described by the waveform emitted by the particle living on the innermost stable circular orbit, and (iii) the regularized waveforms and their unregularized counterparts constructed from the quasinormal mode spectrum are in excellent agreement. Finally, we construct, for arbitrary directions of observation and, in particular, outside the orbital plane of the plunging particle, the regularized multipolar waveforms, i.e., the waveforms constructed by summing over partial waveforms.

Fully-connected deep neural networks with weights initialized from independent Gaussian distributions can be tuned to criticality, which prevents the exponential growth or decay of signals propagating through the network. However, such networks still exhibit fluctuations that grow linearly with the depth of the network, which may impair the training of networks with width comparable to depth. We show analytically that rectangular networks with tanh activations and weights initialized from the ensemble of orthogonal matrices have corresponding preactivation fluctuations which are independent of depth, to leading order in inverse width. Moreover, we demonstrate numerically that, at initialization, all correlators involving the neural tangent kernel (NTK) and its descendants at leading order in inverse width -- which govern the evolution of observables during training -- saturate at a depth of sim 20, rather than growing without bound as in the case of Gaussian initializations. We speculate that this structure preserves finite-width feature learning while reducing overall noise, thus improving both generalization and training speed. We provide some experimental justification by relating empirical measurements of the NTK to the superior performance of deep nonlinear orthogonal networks trained under full-batch gradient descent on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 classification tasks.

Nowadays, with the rising number of sensors in sectors such as healthcare and industry, the problem of multivariate time series classification (MTSC) is getting increasingly relevant and is a prime target for machine and deep learning approaches. Their expanding adoption in real-world environments is causing a shift in focus from the pursuit of ever-higher prediction accuracy with complex models towards practical, deployable solutions that balance accuracy and parameters such as prediction speed. An MTSC model that has attracted attention recently is ROCKET, based on random convolutional kernels, both because of its very fast training process and its state-of-the-art accuracy. However, the large number of features it utilizes may be detrimental to inference time. Examining its theoretical background and limitations enables us to address potential drawbacks and present LightWaveS: a framework for accurate MTSC, which is fast both during training and inference. Specifically, utilizing wavelet scattering transformation and distributed feature selection, we manage to create a solution that employs just 2.5% of the ROCKET features, while achieving accuracy comparable to recent MTSC models. LightWaveS also scales well across multiple compute nodes and with the number of input channels during training. In addition, it can significantly reduce the input size and provide insight to an MTSC problem by keeping only the most useful channels. We present three versions of our algorithm and their results on distributed training time and scalability, accuracy, and inference speedup. We show that we achieve speedup ranging from 9x to 53x compared to ROCKET during inference on an edge device, on datasets with comparable accuracy.

Kilonovae are key to advancing our understanding of r-process nucleosynthesis. To date, only two kilonovae have been spectroscopically observed, AT 2017gfo and AT 2023vfi. Here, we present an analysis of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) spectra obtained +29 and +61 days post-merger for AT 2023vfi (the kilonova associated with GRB 230307A). After re-reducing and photometrically flux-calibrating the data, we empirically model the observed X-ray to mid-infrared continua with a power law and a blackbody, to replicate the non-thermal afterglow and apparent thermal continuum gtrsim 2 , mum. We fit Gaussians to the apparent emission features, obtaining line centroids of 20218_{-38}^{+37}, 21874 pm 89 and 44168_{-152}^{+153}\,\AA, and velocity widths spanning 0.057 - 0.110\,c. These line centroid constraints facilitated a detailed forbidden line identification search, from which we shortlist a number of r-process species spanning all three r-process peaks. We rule out Ba II and Ra II as candidates and propose Te I-III, Er I-III and W III as the most promising ions for further investigation, as they plausibly produce multiple emission features from one (W III) or multiple (Te I-III, Er I-III) ion stages. We compare to the spectra of AT 2017gfo, which also exhibit prominent emission at sim 2.1 , mum, and conclude that [Te III] lambda21050 remains the most plausible cause of the observed sim 2.1 , mum emission in both kilonovae. However, the observed line centroids are not consistent between both objects, and they are significantly offset from [Te III] lambda21050. The next strongest [Te III] transition at 29290\,\AA\ is not observed, and we quantify its detectability. Further study is required, with particular emphasis on expanding the available atomic data to enable quantitative non-LTE spectral modelling.

In this work, we obtain the error estimate of the rotation parameter beta from the core bounce phase of the characteristic gravitational wave signal of a rapidly rotating core collapse supernova (CCSN). We quantify the error with asymptotic expansions of the covariance of a Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) in terms of inverse powers of Signal-Noise Ratio (SNR), this method has been previously applied to parameter estimation for compact binary coalescences. When the second order of this expansion is negligible, it indicates that the first order is a good approximation of the error that will have a matching filter approach when estimating beta. The analysis indicates that we should be able to resolve the presence of rotation for the galactic and nearby extragalactic progenitors. We show that the estimation error Delta beta can be as small as a few percent and is larger for small values of beta.

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

Methods. We utilized the combined five SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey data (eRASS:5) to perform X-ray imaging and spectral analyses of the Centaurus cluster in various directions to large radii. Surface brightness (SB) profiles out to 2R_{200} were constructed. We acquired gas temperature, metallicity, and normalization per area profiles out to R_{200}. We compared our results with previous Centaurus studies, cluster outskirts measurements, and simulations. Comprehensive sky background analysis was done across the FoV, in particular, to assess the variation of the eROSITA Bubble emission that partially contaminates the field. Results. The processed X-ray images show the known sloshing-induced structures in the core. The core (rleq11~kpc) is better described with a 2T model than a 1T model. Here, we measured lower T from the cooler component (~1.0 keV) and higher Z (sim!1.6Z_odot), signifying an iron bias. In the intermediate radial range, we observed prominent SB and normalization per area excesses in the eastern sector (Cen 45 location), reaching out to R_{500}. Temperature enhancements near the location of Cen 45 imply that the gas is shock-heated due to the interaction with Cen 30, the significant excess behind Cen 45 center might be the tail/ram-pressure-stripped gas. We found good agreement between the outskirt temperatures with the profile from simulations and fit from Suzaku outskirts measurements. We detected significant SB emission to the sky background level out to R_{200} with a 3.5sigma and followed by 2.9sigma at 1.1R_{200}. The metallicity at R_{500}-R_{200} is low but within the ranges of other outskirts studies. Conclusions. We present the first measurement of ICM morphology and properties of Centaurus cluster sampling the whole azimuth beyond 30', increasing the probed volume by a factor of almost 30.

One of the central challenges in modern cosmology is understanding the nature of dark energy and its evolution throughout the history of the Universe. Dark energy is commonly modeled as a perfect fluid with a time-varying equation-of-state parameter, w(z), often modeled under CPL parametrization using two parameters w_0 and w_a. In this study, we explore both parametric and non-parametric methods to reconstruct the dark energy Equation of State (EoS) using Gravitational Wave (GW) sources, with and without electromagnetic (EM) counterparts called as bright sirens and dark sirens respectively. In the parametric approach, we extend the widely used w_0-w_a model by introducing an additional term, w_b, to better capture the evolving dynamics of dark energy up to high redshift which is accessible from GW sources. This extension provides increased flexibility in modeling the EoS and enables a more detailed investigation of dark energy's evolution. Our analysis indicates that, with five years of observation time and a 75% duty cycle using Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope, it will be possible to measure the dark energy EoS with remarkable precision better than any other cosmological probes in the coming years from bright standard sirens using multi-messenger avenue. These findings highlight the potential of GW observations in synergy with EM telescopes to offer valuable insights into the nature of dark energy, overcoming the current limitations in cosmological measurements.

Non-convex optimization plays a key role in a growing number of machine learning applications. This motivates the identification of specialized structure that enables sharper theoretical analysis. One such identified structure is quasar-convexity, a non-convex generalization of convexity that subsumes convex functions. Existing algorithms for minimizing quasar-convex functions in the stochastic setting have either high complexity or slow convergence, which prompts us to derive a new class of stochastic methods for optimizing smooth quasar-convex functions. We demonstrate that our algorithms have fast convergence and outperform existing algorithms on several examples, including the classical problem of learning linear dynamical systems. We also present a unified analysis of our newly proposed algorithms and a previously studied deterministic algorithm.

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in https://github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

This work investigates the use of smooth neural networks for modeling dynamic variations of implicit surfaces under the level set equation (LSE). For this, it extends the representation of neural implicit surfaces to the space-time R^3times R, which opens up mechanisms for continuous geometric transformations. Examples include evolving an initial surface towards general vector fields, smoothing and sharpening using the mean curvature equation, and interpolations of initial conditions. The network training considers two constraints. A data term is responsible for fitting the initial condition to the corresponding time instant, usually R^3 times {0}. Then, a LSE term forces the network to approximate the underlying geometric evolution given by the LSE, without any supervision. The network can also be initialized based on previously trained initial conditions, resulting in faster convergence compared to the standard approach.

We use deep, mu_{r} lesssim 28,mag,arcsec^{-2}, r-band imaging from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) to search for past, or ongoing, merger activity in a sample of 282 Low Excitation Radio Galaxies (LERGs) at z<0.07. Our principle aim is to assess the the role of mergers in the evolution of LERGs. Exploiting the imaging depth, we classify tidal remnants around galaxies as both minor and major morphological disturbances for our LERG sample and 1,622 control galaxies matched in redshift, stellar mass, and environment. In groups and in the field, the LERG minor merger fraction is consistent with the control population. In galaxy clusters, 8.8 pm 2.9, % of LERGs show evidence of recent minor mergers in contrast to 23.0pm 2.0, % of controls. This sim 4 sigma deficit of minor mergers in cluster LERGs suggests these events may inhibit this type of nuclear activity for galaxies within the cluster environment. We observe a > 4sigma excess of major mergers in the LERGs with M_{*} lesssim 10^{11},M_{odot}, with 10 pm 1.5, % of these AGN involved in such large-scale interactions compared to 3.2 pm 0.4,% of control galaxies. This excess of major mergers in LERGs decreases with increasing stellar mass, vanishing by M_{*} > 10^{11.3},M_{odot}. These observations show that minor mergers do not fuel LERGs, and are consistent with typical LERGs being powered by accretion of matter from their halo. Where LERGs are associated with major mergers, these objects may evolve into more efficiently accreting active galactic nuclei as the merger progresses and more gas falls on to the central engine.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

We consider the problem of simultaneously clustering and learning a linear representation of data lying close to a union of low-dimensional manifolds, a fundamental task in machine learning and computer vision. When the manifolds are assumed to be linear subspaces, this reduces to the classical problem of subspace clustering, which has been studied extensively over the past two decades. Unfortunately, many real-world datasets such as natural images can not be well approximated by linear subspaces. On the other hand, numerous works have attempted to learn an appropriate transformation of the data, such that data is mapped from a union of general non-linear manifolds to a union of linear subspaces (with points from the same manifold being mapped to the same subspace). However, many existing works have limitations such as assuming knowledge of the membership of samples to clusters, requiring high sampling density, or being shown theoretically to learn trivial representations. In this paper, we propose to optimize the Maximal Coding Rate Reduction metric with respect to both the data representation and a novel doubly stochastic cluster membership, inspired by state-of-the-art subspace clustering results. We give a parameterization of such a representation and membership, allowing efficient mini-batching and one-shot initialization. Experiments on CIFAR-10, -20, -100, and TinyImageNet-200 datasets show that the proposed method is much more accurate and scalable than state-of-the-art deep clustering methods, and further learns a latent linear representation of the data.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

About 90% of the computing resources available to the LHCb experiment has been spent to produce simulated data samples for Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. The upgraded LHCb detector will be able to collect larger data samples, requiring many more simulated events to analyze the data to be collected in Run 3. Simulation is a key necessity of analysis to interpret signal, reject background and measure efficiencies. The needed simulation will far exceed the pledged resources, requiring an evolution in technologies and techniques to produce these simulated data samples. In this contribution, we discuss Lamarr, a Gaudi-based framework to speed-up the simulation production parameterizing both the detector response and the reconstruction algorithms of the LHCb experiment. Deep Generative Models powered by several algorithms and strategies are employed to effectively parameterize the high-level response of the single components of the LHCb detector, encoding within neural networks the experimental errors and uncertainties introduced in the detection and reconstruction phases. Where possible, models are trained directly on real data, statistically subtracting any background components by applying appropriate reweighing procedures. Embedding Lamarr in the general LHCb Gauss Simulation framework allows to combine its execution with any of the available generators in a seamless way. The resulting software package enables a simulation process independent of the detailed simulation used to date.

We develop a spacetime neural network method with second order optimization for solving quantum dynamics from the high dimensional Schr\"{o}dinger equation. In contrast to the standard iterative first order optimization and the time-dependent variational principle, our approach utilizes the implicit mid-point method and generates the solution for all spatial and temporal values simultaneously after optimization. We demonstrate the method in the Schr\"{o}dinger equation with a self-normalized autoregressive spacetime neural network construction. Future explorations for solving different high dimensional differential equations are discussed.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

We introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models. Instead of declaring a learning system's dynamics by implicit nonlinearities, we construct networks of linear first-order dynamical systems modulated via nonlinear interlinked gates. The resulting models represent dynamical systems with varying (i.e., liquid) time-constants coupled to their hidden state, with outputs being computed by numerical differential equation solvers. These neural networks exhibit stable and bounded behavior, yield superior expressivity within the family of neural ordinary differential equations, and give rise to improved performance on time-series prediction tasks. To demonstrate these properties, we first take a theoretical approach to find bounds over their dynamics and compute their expressive power by the trajectory length measure in latent trajectory space. We then conduct a series of time-series prediction experiments to manifest the approximation capability of Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) compared to classical and modern RNNs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/raminmh/liquid_time_constant_networks

Quantum systems of infinite dimension, such as bosonic oscillators, provide vast resources for quantum sensing. Yet, a general theory on how to manipulate such bosonic modes for sensing beyond parameter estimation is unknown. We present a general algorithmic framework, quantum signal processing interferometry (QSPI), for quantum sensing at the fundamental limits of quantum mechanics by generalizing Ramsey-type interferometry. Our QSPI sensing protocol relies on performing nonlinear polynomial transformations on the oscillator's quadrature operators by generalizing quantum signal processing (QSP) from qubits to hybrid qubit-oscillator systems. We use our QSPI sensing framework to make efficient binary decisions on a displacement channel in the single-shot limit. Theoretical analysis suggests the sensing accuracy, given a single-shot qubit measurement, scales inversely with the sensing time or circuit depth of the algorithm. We further concatenate a series of such binary decisions to perform parameter estimation in a bit-by-bit fashion. Numerical simulations are performed to support these statements. Our QSPI protocol offers a unified framework for quantum sensing using continuous-variable bosonic systems beyond parameter estimation and establishes a promising avenue toward efficient and scalable quantum control and quantum sensing schemes beyond the NISQ era.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

The coupling of the angular jitter of the spacecraft and their sub-assemblies with the optical bench and the telescope into the interferometric length readout will be a major noise source in the LISA mission. We refer to this noise as tilt-to-length (TTL) coupling. It will be reduced directly by realignments, and the residual noise will then be subtracted in post-processing. The success of these mitigation strategies depends on an accurate computation of the TTL coupling coefficients. We present here a thorough analysis of the accuracy of the coefficient estimation under different jitter characteristics, angular readout noise levels, and gravitational wave sources. We analyze in which cases the estimates degrade using two estimators, the common least squares estimator and the instrumental variables estimator. Our investigations show that angular readout noise leads to a bias of the least squares estimator, depending on the TTL coupling coefficients, jitter and readout noise level, while the instrumental variable estimator is not biased. We present an equation that predicts the estimation bias of the least squares method due to angular readout noise.

In this paper we introduce the concept of what we call "NUDAR" (NeUtrino Direction and Ranging), making the point that measurements of the observed energy and direction vectors can be employed to passively deduce the exact three-dimensional location and thermal power of geophysical and anthropogenic neutrino sources from even a single detector. We present the most precise background estimates to date, all handled in full three dimensions, as functions of depth and geographical location. For the present calculations, we consider a hypothetical 138 kiloton detector which can be transported to an ocean site and deployed to an operational depth. We present a Bayesian estimation framework to incorporate any a priori knowledge of the reactor that we are trying to detect, as well as the estimated uncertainty in the background and the oscillation parameters. Most importantly, we fully employ the knowledge of the reactor spectrum and the distance-dependent effects of neutrino oscillations on such spectra. The latter, in particular, makes possible determination of range from one location, given adequate signal statistics. Further, we explore the rich potential of improving detection with even modest improvements in individual neutrino direction determination. We conclude that a 300 MWth reactor can indeed be geolocated, and its operating power estimated with one or two detectors in the hundred kiloton class at ranges out to a few hundred kilometers. We note that such detectors would have natural and non-interfering utility for scientific studies of geo-neutrinos, neutrino oscillations, and astrophysical neutrinos. This motivates the development of cost effective methods of constructing and deploying such next generation detectors.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

Solving a linear system Ax=b is a fundamental scientific computing primitive for which numerous solvers and preconditioners have been developed. These come with parameters whose optimal values depend on the system being solved and are often impossible or too expensive to identify; thus in practice sub-optimal heuristics are used. We consider the common setting in which many related linear systems need to be solved, e.g. during a single numerical simulation. In this scenario, can we sequentially choose parameters that attain a near-optimal overall number of iterations, without extra matrix computations? We answer in the affirmative for Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR), a standard solver whose parameter omega has a strong impact on its runtime. For this method, we prove that a bandit online learning algorithm -- using only the number of iterations as feedback -- can select parameters for a sequence of instances such that the overall cost approaches that of the best fixed omega as the sequence length increases. Furthermore, when given additional structural information, we show that a contextual bandit method asymptotically achieves the performance of the instance-optimal policy, which selects the best omega for each instance. Our work provides the first learning-theoretic treatment of high-precision linear system solvers and the first end-to-end guarantees for data-driven scientific computing, demonstrating theoretically the potential to speed up numerical methods using well-understood learning algorithms.

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a robust framework for extracting theoretical insights from observational data. However, its computational demands can be substantial, primarily due to the need for numerous likelihood function evaluations. Our proposed method utilizes the power of deep learning, employing feedforward neural networks to approximate the likelihood function dynamically during the Bayesian inference process. Unlike traditional approaches, our method trains neural networks on-the-fly using the current set of live points as training data, without the need for pre-training. This flexibility enables adaptation to various theoretical models and datasets. We perform simple hyperparameter optimization using genetic algorithms to suggest initial neural network architectures for learning each likelihood function. Once sufficient accuracy is achieved, the neural network replaces the original likelihood function. The implementation integrates with nested sampling algorithms and has been thoroughly evaluated using both simple cosmological dark energy models and diverse observational datasets. Additionally, we explore the potential of genetic algorithms for generating initial live points within nested sampling inference, opening up new avenues for enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of Bayesian inference methods.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

LSST and Euclid must address the daunting challenge of analyzing the unprecedented volumes of imaging and spectroscopic data that these next-generation instruments will generate. A promising approach to overcoming this challenge involves rapid, automatic image processing using appropriately trained Deep Learning (DL) algorithms. However, reliable application of DL requires large, accurately labeled samples of training data. Galaxy Zoo Express (GZX) is a recent experiment that simulated using Bayesian inference to dynamically aggregate binary responses provided by citizen scientists via the Zooniverse crowd-sourcing platform in real time. The GZX approach enables collaboration between human and machine classifiers and provides rapidly generated, reliably labeled datasets, thereby enabling online training of accurate machine classifiers. We present selected results from GZX and show how the Bayesian aggregation engine it uses can be extended to efficiently provide object-localization and bounding-box annotations of two-dimensional data with quantified reliability. DL algorithms that are trained using these annotations will facilitate numerous panchromatic data modeling tasks including morphological classification and substructure detection in direct imaging, as well as decontamination and emission line identification for slitless spectroscopy. Effectively combining the speed of modern computational analyses with the human capacity to extrapolate from few examples will be critical if the potential of forthcoming large-scale surveys is to be realized.

We present final natural system optical (ugriBV) and near-infrared (YJH) photometry of 134 supernovae (SNe) with probable white dwarf progenitors that were observed in 2004-2009 as part of the first stage of the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP-I). The sample consists of 123 Type Ia SNe, 5 Type Iax SNe, 2 super-Chandrasekhar SN candidates, 2 Type Ia SNe interacting with circumstellar matter, and 2 SN 2006bt-like events. The redshifts of the objects range from z = 0.0037 to 0.0835; the median redshift is 0.0241. For 120 (90%) of these SNe, near-infrared photometry was obtained. Average optical extinction coefficients and color terms are derived and demonstrated to be stable during the five CSP-I observing campaigns. Measurements of the CSP-I near-infrared bandpasses are also described, and near-infrared color terms are estimated through synthetic photometry of stellar atmosphere models. Optical and near-infrared magnitudes of local sequences of tertiary standard stars for each supernova are given, and a new calibration of Y-band magnitudes of the Persson et al. (1998) standards in the CSP-I natural system is presented.

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Causal disentanglement seeks a representation of data involving latent variables that relate to one another via a causal model. A representation is identifiable if both the latent model and the transformation from latent to observed variables are unique. In this paper, we study observed variables that are a linear transformation of a linear latent causal model. Data from interventions are necessary for identifiability: if one latent variable is missing an intervention, we show that there exist distinct models that cannot be distinguished. Conversely, we show that a single intervention on each latent variable is sufficient for identifiability. Our proof uses a generalization of the RQ decomposition of a matrix that replaces the usual orthogonal and upper triangular conditions with analogues depending on a partial order on the rows of the matrix, with partial order determined by a latent causal model. We corroborate our theoretical results with a method for causal disentanglement that accurately recovers a latent causal model.

Diffusion models have emerged as a formidable tool for training-free conditional generation.However, a key hurdle in inference-time guidance techniques is the need for compute-heavy backpropagation through the diffusion network for estimating the guidance direction. Moreover, these techniques often require handcrafted parameter tuning on a case-by-case basis. Although some recent works have introduced minimal compute methods for linear inverse problems, a generic lightweight guidance solution to both linear and non-linear guidance problems is still missing. To this end, we propose Dreamguider, a method that enables inference-time guidance without compute-heavy backpropagation through the diffusion network. The key idea is to regulate the gradient flow through a time-varying factor. Moreover, we propose an empirical guidance scale that works for a wide variety of tasks, hence removing the need for handcrafted parameter tuning. We further introduce an effective lightweight augmentation strategy that significantly boosts the performance during inference-time guidance. We present experiments using Dreamguider on multiple tasks across multiple datasets and models to show the effectiveness of the proposed modules. To facilitate further research, we will make the code public after the review process.

We present photometric properties and distance measurements of 252 high redshift Type Ia supernovae (0.15 < z < 1.1) discovered during the first three years of the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS). These events were detected and their multi-colour light curves measured using the MegaPrime/MegaCam instrument at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), by repeatedly imaging four one-square degree fields in four bands. Follow-up spectroscopy was performed at the VLT, Gemini and Keck telescopes to confirm the nature of the supernovae and to measure their redshifts. Systematic uncertainties arising from light curve modeling are studied, making use of two techniques to derive the peak magnitude, shape and colour of the supernovae, and taking advantage of a precise calibration of the SNLS fields. A flat LambdaCDM cosmological fit to 231 SNLS high redshift Type Ia supernovae alone gives Omega_M = 0.211 +/- 0.034(stat) +/- 0.069(sys). The dominant systematic uncertainty comes from uncertainties in the photometric calibration. Systematic uncertainties from light curve fitters come next with a total contribution of +/- 0.026 on Omega_M. No clear evidence is found for a possible evolution of the slope (beta) of the colour-luminosity relation with redshift.

Large-scale recordings of neural activity are providing new opportunities to study neural population dynamics. A powerful method for analyzing such high-dimensional measurements is to deploy an algorithm to learn the low-dimensional latent dynamics. LFADS (Latent Factor Analysis via Dynamical Systems) is a deep learning method for inferring latent dynamics from high-dimensional neural spiking data recorded simultaneously in single trials. This method has shown a remarkable performance in modeling complex brain signals with an average inference latency in milliseconds. As our capacity of simultaneously recording many neurons is increasing exponentially, it is becoming crucial to build capacity for deploying low-latency inference of the computing algorithms. To improve the real-time processing ability of LFADS, we introduce an efficient implementation of the LFADS models onto Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA). Our implementation shows an inference latency of 41.97 mus for processing the data in a single trial on a Xilinx U55C.

Limitations on bandwidth and power consumption impose strict bounds on data rates of diagnostic imaging systems. Consequently, the design of suitable (i.e. task- and data-aware) compression and reconstruction techniques has attracted considerable attention in recent years. Compressed sensing emerged as a popular framework for sparse signal reconstruction from a small set of compressed measurements. However, typical compressed sensing designs measure a (non)linearly weighted combination of all input signal elements, which poses practical challenges. These designs are also not necessarily task-optimal. In addition, real-time recovery is hampered by the iterative and time-consuming nature of sparse recovery algorithms. Recently, deep learning methods have shown promise for fast recovery from compressed measurements, but the design of adequate and practical sensing strategies remains a challenge. Here, we propose a deep learning solution termed Deep Probabilistic Sub-sampling (DPS), that learns a task-driven sub-sampling pattern, while jointly training a subsequent task model. Once learned, the task-based sub-sampling patterns are fixed and straightforwardly implementable, e.g. by non-uniform analog-to-digital conversion, sparse array design, or slow-time ultrasound pulsing schemes. The effectiveness of our framework is demonstrated in-silico for sparse signal recovery from partial Fourier measurements, and in-vivo for both anatomical image and tissue-motion (Doppler) reconstruction from sub-sampled medical ultrasound imaging data.

We present an extragalactic HI 21-cm absorption lines catalog from a blind search at z leqslant 0.35, using drift-scan data collected in 1325.6 hours by the ongoing Commensal Radio Astronomy FasT Survey (CRAFTS) and FAST All Sky HI Survey (FASHI), which spans a sky area of 6072.0 deg^{2} and covers 84533 radio sources with a flux density greater than 12 mJy. 14 previously identified HI absorbers and 20 newly discovered HI absorbers were detected, comprising 15 associated systems, 10 intervening systems, and 9 systems with undetermined classifications. Through spectral stacking, the mean peak optical path, mean velocity-integrated optical path, mean FWHM and mean HI column density are measured to be 0.47 and 0.30; 27.19 and 4.36 km s^{-1}; 42.61 and 9.33 km s^{-1}; 0.49 and 0.08 T_{s} times 10^{20}cm^{-2}K^{-1}, for the associated and intervening samples, respectively. Statistical analysis also reveals that associated systems tend to be hosted by red (g-r>0.7) galaxies at lower redshifts, whereas galaxies hosting intervening HI absorption are typically found at higher redshifts and are of a bluer (g-rleqslant0.7) type. A noticeable difference is observed in the positions of foregrounds, backgrounds of intervening systems, and high-redshift and low-redshift associated systems on the WISE color-color diagram. All identified foreground sources in our sample have W1-W2 magnitudes below 0.8, suggesting no Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). In contrast, backgrounds of intervening systems tend to have W1-W2 magnitudes above 0.8, indicating AGN presence. For associated absorption, most low-redshift (zleqslant0.5) systems show W1-W2 values below 0.8, while higher-redshift associated absorption (z>0.5) displays a broader range of W1-W2 values.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

The search for evidence of past life on Mars presents a tremendous challenge that requires the usage of very advanced robotic technologies to overcome it. Current digital microscopic imagers and spectrometers used for astrobiological examination suffer from limitations such as insufficient resolution, narrow detection range, and lack of portability. To overcome these challenges, this research study presents modifications to the Phoenix rover to expand its capability for detecting biosignatures on Mars. This paper examines the modifications implemented on the Phoenix rover to enhance its capability to detect a broader spectrum of biosignatures. One of the notable improvements comprises the integration of advanced digital microscopic imagers and spectrometers, enabling high-resolution examination of soil samples. Additionally, the mechanical components of the device have been reinforced to enhance maneuverability and optimize subsurface sampling capabilities. Empirical investigations have demonstrated that Phoenix has the capability to navigate diverse geological environments and procure samples for the purpose of biomolecular analysis. The biomolecular instrumentation and hybrid analytical methods showcased in this study demonstrate considerable potential for future astrobiology missions on Mars. The potential for enhancing the system lies in the possibility of broadening the range of detectable biomarkers and biosignatures.

We theoretically investigate the phase sensitivity with parity detection on an SU(1,1) interferometer with a coherent state combined with a squeezed vacuum state. This interferometer is formed with two parametric amplifiers for beam splitting and recombination instead of beam splitters. We show that the sensitivity of estimation phase approaches Heisenberg limit and give the corresponding optimal condition. Moreover, we derive the quantum Cram\'er-Rao bound of the SU(1,1) interferometer.

In this paper, we study the problem of principal component analysis with generative modeling assumptions, adopting a general model for the observed matrix that encompasses notable special cases, including spiked matrix recovery and phase retrieval. The key assumption is that the underlying signal lies near the range of an L-Lipschitz continuous generative model with bounded k-dimensional inputs. We propose a quadratic estimator, and show that it enjoys a statistical rate of order frac{klog L{m}}, where m is the number of samples. We also provide a near-matching algorithm-independent lower bound. Moreover, we provide a variant of the classic power method, which projects the calculated data onto the range of the generative model during each iteration. We show that under suitable conditions, this method converges exponentially fast to a point achieving the above-mentioned statistical rate. We perform experiments on various image datasets for spiked matrix and phase retrieval models, and illustrate performance gains of our method to the classic power method and the truncated power method devised for sparse principal component analysis.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

As the number of seismic sensors grows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for analysts to pick seismic phases manually and comprehensively, yet such efforts are fundamental to earthquake monitoring. Despite years of improvements in automatic phase picking, it is difficult to match the performance of experienced analysts. A more subtle issue is that different seismic analysts may pick phases differently, which can introduce bias into earthquake locations. We present a deep-neural-network-based arrival-time picking method called "PhaseNet" that picks the arrival times of both P and S waves. Deep neural networks have recently made rapid progress in feature learning, and with sufficient training, have achieved super-human performance in many applications. PhaseNet uses three-component seismic waveforms as input and generates probability distributions of P arrivals, S arrivals, and noise as output. We engineer PhaseNet such that peaks in probability provide accurate arrival times for both P and S waves, and have the potential to increase the number of S-wave observations dramatically over what is currently available. This will enable both improved locations and improved shear wave velocity models. PhaseNet is trained on the prodigious available data set provided by analyst-labeled P and S arrival times from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The dataset we use contains more than seven million waveform samples extracted from over thirty years of earthquake recordings. We demonstrate that PhaseNet achieves much higher picking accuracy and recall rate than existing methods.

The statistical power of weak lensing measurements is principally driven by the number of high redshift galaxies whose shapes are resolved. Conventional wisdom and physical intuition suggest this is optimised by deep imaging at long (red or near IR) wavelengths, to avoid losing redshifted Balmer break and Lyman break galaxies. We use the synthetic Emission Line EL-COSMOS catalogue to simulate lensing observations using different filters, from various altitudes. Here were predict the number of exposures to achieve a target z > 0.3 source density, using off-the-shelf and custom filters. Ground-based observations are easily better at red wavelengths, as (more narrowly) are space-based observations. However, we find that SuperBIT, a diffraction-limited observatory operating in the stratosphere, should instead perform its lensing-quality observations at blue wavelengths.

We propose a simple modification of space-based gravitational wave (GW) detector optical benches which would enable the measurement of vacuum birefringence of light induced by axion dark matterthrough its coupling to electromagnetism. Specifically, we propose to change a half-wave plate by a circular polarizer. While marginally affecting the sensitivity to GW by a factor 2, we show that such an adjustment would make future detectors such as LISA, TianQin, Taiji and Big-Bang Observer the most sensitive experiments at low axion masses

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Many problems in astrophysics cover multiple orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales. While simulating systems that experience rapid changes in these conditions, it is essential to adapt the (time-) step size to capture the behavior of the system during those rapid changes and use a less accurate time step at other, less demanding, moments. We encounter three problems with traditional methods. Firstly, making such changes requires expert knowledge of the astrophysics as well as of the details of the numerical implementation. Secondly, some parameters that determine the time-step size are fixed throughout the simulation, which means that they do not adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the problem. Lastly, we would like the choice of time-step size to balance accuracy and computation effort. We address these challenges with Reinforcement Learning by training it to select the time-step size dynamically. We use the integration of a system of three equal-mass bodies that move due to their mutual gravity as an example of its application. With our method, the selected integration parameter adapts to the specific requirements of the problem, both in terms of computation time and accuracy while eliminating the expert knowledge needed to set up these simulations. Our method produces results competitive to existing methods and improve the results found with the most commonly-used values of time-step parameter. This method can be applied to other integrators without further retraining. We show that this extrapolation works for variable time-step integrators but does not perform to the desired accuracy for fixed time-step integrators.

Studies show that the model-independent, fully non-perturbative covariant cosmographic approach is suitable for analyzing the local Universe (zlesssim 0.1). However, accurately characterizing large and inhomogeneous mass distributions requires the fourth-order term in the redshift expansion of the covariant luminosity distance d_L(z,n). We calculate the covariant snap parameter S and its spherical harmonic multipole moments using the matter expansion tensor and the evolution equations for lightray bundles. The fourth-order term adds 36 degrees of freedom, since the highest independent multipole of the snap is the 32-pole (dotriacontapole) (ell=5). Including this term helps to de-bias estimations of the covariant deceleration parameter. Given that observations suggest axially symmetric anisotropies in the Hubble diagram for z lesssim 0.1 and theory shows that only a subset of multipoles contributes to the signal, we demonstrate that only 12 degrees of freedom are needed for a model-independent description of the local universe. We use an analytical axisymmetric model of the local Universe, with data that matches the Zwicky Transient Facility survey, in order to provide a numerical example of the amplitude of the snap multipoles and to forecast precision.

k-Clustering in R^d (e.g., k-median and k-means) is a fundamental machine learning problem. While near-linear time approximation algorithms were known in the classical setting for a dataset with cardinality n, it remains open to find sublinear-time quantum algorithms. We give quantum algorithms that find coresets for k-clustering in R^d with O(nkd^{3/2}) query complexity. Our coreset reduces the input size from n to poly(kepsilon^{-1}d), so that existing alpha-approximation algorithms for clustering can run on top of it and yield (1 + epsilon)alpha-approximation. This eventually yields a quadratic speedup for various k-clustering approximation algorithms. We complement our algorithm with a nearly matching lower bound, that any quantum algorithm must make Omega(nk) queries in order to achieve even O(1)-approximation for k-clustering.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

Linear relaxation based perturbation analysis (LiRPA) for neural networks, which computes provable linear bounds of output neurons given a certain amount of input perturbation, has become a core component in robustness verification and certified defense. The majority of LiRPA-based methods focus on simple feed-forward networks and need particular manual derivations and implementations when extended to other architectures. In this paper, we develop an automatic framework to enable perturbation analysis on any neural network structures, by generalizing existing LiRPA algorithms such as CROWN to operate on general computational graphs. The flexibility, differentiability and ease of use of our framework allow us to obtain state-of-the-art results on LiRPA based certified defense on fairly complicated networks like DenseNet, ResNeXt and Transformer that are not supported by prior works. Our framework also enables loss fusion, a technique that significantly reduces the computational complexity of LiRPA for certified defense. For the first time, we demonstrate LiRPA based certified defense on Tiny ImageNet and Downscaled ImageNet where previous approaches cannot scale to due to the relatively large number of classes. Our work also yields an open-source library for the community to apply LiRPA to areas beyond certified defense without much LiRPA expertise, e.g., we create a neural network with a probably flat optimization landscape by applying LiRPA to network parameters. Our opensource library is available at https://github.com/KaidiXu/auto_LiRPA.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome Y, observed features X, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features Z, and exogenous action variables A, which influence Z. The objective of intervention extrapolation is to predict how interventions on A that lie outside the training support of A affect Y. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of A on Z is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As Z is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call Rep4Ex: we aim to map the observed features X into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in A. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in Z-space, which is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of A on Z. Based on this insight, we propose a method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments and show that our approach succeeds in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

Hyperbolic neural networks have shown great potential for modeling complex data. However, existing hyperbolic networks are not completely hyperbolic, as they encode features in a hyperbolic space yet formalize most of their operations in the tangent space (a Euclidean subspace) at the origin of the hyperbolic space. This hybrid method greatly limits the modeling ability of networks. In this paper, we propose a fully hyperbolic framework to build hyperbolic networks based on the Lorentz model by adapting the Lorentz transformations (including boost and rotation) to formalize essential operations of neural networks. Moreover, we also prove that linear transformation in tangent spaces used by existing hyperbolic networks is a relaxation of the Lorentz rotation and does not include the boost, implicitly limiting the capabilities of existing hyperbolic networks. The experimental results on four NLP tasks show that our method has better performance for building both shallow and deep networks. Our code will be released to facilitate follow-up research.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

DeConvNet, Guided BackProp, LRP, were invented to better understand deep neural networks. We show that these methods do not produce the theoretically correct explanation for a linear model. Yet they are used on multi-layer networks with millions of parameters. This is a cause for concern since linear models are simple neural networks. We argue that explanation methods for neural nets should work reliably in the limit of simplicity, the linear models. Based on our analysis of linear models we propose a generalization that yields two explanation techniques (PatternNet and PatternAttribution) that are theoretically sound for linear models and produce improved explanations for deep networks.

Training algorithms, broadly construed, are an essential part of every deep learning pipeline. Training algorithm improvements that speed up training across a wide variety of workloads (e.g., better update rules, tuning protocols, learning rate schedules, or data selection schemes) could save time, save computational resources, and lead to better, more accurate, models. Unfortunately, as a community, we are currently unable to reliably identify training algorithm improvements, or even determine the state-of-the-art training algorithm. In this work, using concrete experiments, we argue that real progress in speeding up training requires new benchmarks that resolve three basic challenges faced by empirical comparisons of training algorithms: (1) how to decide when training is complete and precisely measure training time, (2) how to handle the sensitivity of measurements to exact workload details, and (3) how to fairly compare algorithms that require hyperparameter tuning. In order to address these challenges, we introduce a new, competitive, time-to-result benchmark using multiple workloads running on fixed hardware, the AlgoPerf: Training Algorithms benchmark. Our benchmark includes a set of workload variants that make it possible to detect benchmark submissions that are more robust to workload changes than current widely-used methods. Finally, we evaluate baseline submissions constructed using various optimizers that represent current practice, as well as other optimizers that have recently received attention in the literature. These baseline results collectively demonstrate the feasibility of our benchmark, show that non-trivial gaps between methods exist, and set a provisional state-of-the-art for future benchmark submissions to try and surpass.

We present the data release and data reduction process for the Epoch 1 NIRCam observations for the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). These data consist of NIRCam imaging in six broadband filters (F115W, F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W and F444W) and one medium band filter (F410M) over four pointings, obtained in parallel with primary CEERS MIRI observations (Yang et al. in prep). We reduced the NIRCam imaging with the JWST Calibration Pipeline, with custom modifications and reduction steps designed to address additional features and challenges with the data. Here we provide a detailed description of each step in our reduction and a discussion of future expected improvements. Our reduction process includes corrections for known pre-launch issues such as 1/f noise, as well as in-flight issues including snowballs, wisps, and astrometric alignment. Many of our custom reduction processes were first developed with pre-launch simulated NIRCam imaging over the full 10 CEERS NIRCam pointings. We present a description of the creation and reduction of this simulated dataset in the Appendix. We provide mosaics of the real images in a public release, as well as our reduction scripts with detailed explanations to allow users to reproduce our final data products. These represent one of the first official public datasets released from the Directors Discretionary Early Release Science (DD-ERS) program.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

SARSA, a classical on-policy control algorithm for reinforcement learning, is known to chatter when combined with linear function approximation: SARSA does not diverge but oscillates in a bounded region. However, little is known about how fast SARSA converges to that region and how large the region is. In this paper, we make progress towards this open problem by showing the convergence rate of projected SARSA to a bounded region. Importantly, the region is much smaller than the region that we project into, provided that the magnitude of the reward is not too large. Existing works regarding the convergence of linear SARSA to a fixed point all require the Lipschitz constant of SARSA's policy improvement operator to be sufficiently small; our analysis instead applies to arbitrary Lipschitz constants and thus characterizes the behavior of linear SARSA for a new regime.

Faint tidal features around galaxies record their merger and interaction histories over cosmic time. Due to their low surface brightnesses and complex morphologies, existing automated methods struggle to detect such features and most work to date has heavily relied on visual inspection. This presents a major obstacle to quantitative study of tidal debris features in large statistical samples, and hence the ability to be able to use these features to advance understanding of the galaxy population as a whole. This paper uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with dropout and augmentation to identify galaxies in the CFHTLS-Wide Survey that have faint tidal features. Evaluating the performance of the CNNs against previously-published expert visual classifications, we find that our method achieves high (76%) completeness and low (20%) contamination, and also performs considerably better than other automated methods recently applied in the literature. We argue that CNNs offer a promising approach to effective automatic identification of low surface brightness tidal debris features in and around galaxies. When applied to forthcoming deep wide-field imaging surveys (e.g. LSST, Euclid), CNNs have the potential to provide a several order-of-magnitude increase in the sample size of morphologically-perturbed galaxies and thereby facilitate a much-anticipated revolution in terms of quantitative low surface brightness science.

We present Mantis Shrimp, a multi-survey deep learning model for photometric redshift estimation that fuses ultra-violet (GALEX), optical (PanSTARRS), and infrared (UnWISE) imagery. Machine learning is now an established approach for photometric redshift estimation, with generally acknowledged higher performance in areas with a high density of spectroscopically identified galaxies over template-based methods. Multiple works have shown that image-based convolutional neural networks can outperform tabular-based color/magnitude models. In comparison to tabular models, image models have additional design complexities: it is largely unknown how to fuse inputs from different instruments which have different resolutions or noise properties. The Mantis Shrimp model estimates the conditional density estimate of redshift using cutout images. The density estimates are well calibrated and the point estimates perform well in the distribution of available spectroscopically confirmed galaxies with (bias = 1e-2), scatter (NMAD = 2.44e-2) and catastrophic outlier rate (eta=17.53%). We find that early fusion approaches (e.g., resampling and stacking images from different instruments) match the performance of late fusion approaches (e.g., concatenating latent space representations), so that the design choice ultimately is left to the user. Finally, we study how the models learn to use information across bands, finding evidence that our models successfully incorporates information from all surveys. The applicability of our model to the analysis of large populations of galaxies is limited by the speed of downloading cutouts from external servers; however, our model could be useful in smaller studies such as generating priors over redshift for stellar population synthesis.

Source separation involves the ill-posed problem of retrieving a set of source signals that have been observed through a mixing operator. Solving this problem requires prior knowledge, which is commonly incorporated by imposing regularity conditions on the source signals, or implicitly learned through supervised or unsupervised methods from existing data. While data-driven methods have shown great promise in source separation, they often require large amounts of data, which rarely exists in planetary space missions. To address this challenge, we propose an unsupervised source separation scheme for domains with limited data access that involves solving an optimization problem in the wavelet scattering covariance representation spacex2014an interpretable, low-dimensional representation of stationary processes. We present a real-data example in which we remove transient, thermally-induced microtiltsx2014known as glitchesx2014from data recorded by a seismometer during NASA's InSight mission on Mars. Thanks to the wavelet scattering covariances' ability to capture non-Gaussian properties of stochastic processes, we are able to separate glitches using only a few glitch-free data snippets.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

We provide a mapping between past null and future null infinity in three-dimensional flat space, using symmetry considerations. From this we derive a mapping between the corresponding asymptotic symmetry groups. By studying the metric at asymptotic regions, we find that the mapping is energy preserving and yields an infinite number of conservation laws.

Measurements of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w, have been limited by uncertainty in the selection effects and photometric calibration of z<0.1 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The Foundation Supernova Survey is designed to lower these uncertainties by creating a new sample of z<0.1 SNe Ia observed on the Pan-STARRS system. Here, we combine the Foundation sample with SNe from the Pan-STARRS Medium Deep Survey and measure cosmological parameters with 1,338 SNe from a single telescope and a single, well-calibrated photometric system. For the first time, both the low-z and high-z data are predominantly discovered by surveys that do not target pre-selected galaxies, reducing selection bias uncertainties. The z>0.1 data include 875 SNe without spectroscopic classifications and we show that we can robustly marginalize over CC SN contamination. We measure Foundation Hubble residuals to be fainter than the pre-existing low-z Hubble residuals by 0.046 pm 0.027 mag (stat+sys). By combining the SN Ia data with cosmic microwave background constraints, we find w=-0.938 pm 0.053, consistent with LambdaCDM. With 463 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia alone, we measure w=-0.933pm0.061. Using the more homogeneous and better-characterized Foundation sample gives a 55% reduction in the systematic uncertainty attributed to SN Ia sample selection biases. Although use of just a single photometric system at low and high redshift increases the impact of photometric calibration uncertainties in this analysis, previous low-z samples may have correlated calibration uncertainties that were neglected in past studies. The full Foundation sample will observe up to 800 SNe to anchor the LSST and WFIRST Hubble diagrams.

Context. Recent developments in exoplanetary research highlight the importance of Love numbers in understanding their internal dynamics, formation, migration history and their potential habitability. Love numbers represent crucial parameters that gauge how exoplanets respond to external forces such as tidal interactions and rotational effects. By measuring these responses, we can gain insights into the internal structure, composition, and density distribution of exoplanets. The rate of apsidal precession of a planetary orbit is directly linked to the second-order fluid Love number, thus we can gain valuable insights into the mass distribution of the planet. Aims. In this context, we aim to re-determine the orbital parameters of WASP-43b-in particular, orbital period, eccentricity, and argument of the periastron-and its orbital evolution. We study the outcomes of the tidal interaction with the host star:whether tidal decay and periastron precession are occurring in the system. Method. We observed the system with HARPS, whose data we present for the first time, and we also analyse the newly acquired JWST full-phase light curve. We fit jointly archival and new radial velocity and transit and occultation mid-times, including tidal decay, periastron precession and long-term acceleration in the system. Results. We detected a tidal decay rate of \dotP_a=(-1.99pm0.50) and a periastron precession rate of \dotomega=(0.1851+0.0070-0.0077)=(0.1727+0.0083-0.0089)deg/d=(621.72+29.88-32.04)arcsec/d. This is the first time that both periastron precession and tidal decay are simultaneously detected in an exoplanetary system. The observed tidal interactions can neither be explained by the tidal contribution to apsidal motion of a non-aligned stellar or planetary rotation axis nor by assuming non-synchronous rotation for the planet, and a value for the planetary Love number cannot be derived. [...]

Training a neural network requires choosing a suitable learning rate, which involves a trade-off between speed and effectiveness of convergence. While there has been considerable theoretical and empirical analysis of how large the learning rate can be, most prior work focuses only on late-stage training. In this work, we introduce the maximal initial learning rate eta^{ast} - the largest learning rate at which a randomly initialized neural network can successfully begin training and achieve (at least) a given threshold accuracy. Using a simple approach to estimate eta^{ast}, we observe that in constant-width fully-connected ReLU networks, eta^{ast} behaves differently from the maximum learning rate later in training. Specifically, we find that eta^{ast} is well predicted as a power of depth times width, provided that (i) the width of the network is sufficiently large compared to the depth, and (ii) the input layer is trained at a relatively small learning rate. We further analyze the relationship between eta^{ast} and the sharpness lambda_{1} of the network at initialization, indicating they are closely though not inversely related. We formally prove bounds for lambda_{1} in terms of depth times width that align with our empirical results.

This article presents a review about the main CERN n\_TOF contributions to the field of neutron-capture experiments of interest for s-process nucleosynthesis studies over the last 25 years, with special focus on the measurement of radioactive isotopes. A few recent capture experiments on stable isotopes of astrophysical interest are also discussed. Results on s-process branching nuclei are appropriate to illustrate how advances in detection systems and upgrades in the facility have enabled increasingly challenging experiments and, as a consequence, have led to a better understanding and modeling of the s-process mechanism of nucleosynthesis. New endeavors combining radioactive-ion beams from ISOLDE for the production of radioisotopically pure samples for activation experiments at the new NEAR facility at n\_TOF are briefly discussed. On the basis of these new exciting results, also current limitations of state-of-the-art TOF and activation techniques will be depicted, thereby showing the pressing need for further upgrades and enhancements on both facilities and detection systems. A brief account of the potential technique based on inverse kinematics for direct neutron-capture measurements is also presented.

Accelerated magnetic resonance (MR) imaging attempts to reduce acquisition time by collecting data below the Nyquist rate. As an ill-posed inverse problem, many plausible solutions exist, yet the majority of deep learning approaches generate only a single solution. We instead focus on sampling from the posterior distribution, which provides more comprehensive information for downstream inference tasks. To do this, we design a novel conditional normalizing flow (CNF) that infers the signal component in the measurement operator's nullspace, which is later combined with measured data to form complete images. Using fastMRI brain and knee data, we demonstrate fast inference and accuracy that surpasses recent posterior sampling techniques for MRI. Code is available at https://github.com/jwen307/mri_cnf/

In this article, we develop an asymptotic method for constructing confidence regions for the set of all linear subspaces arising from PCA, from which we derive hypothesis tests on this set. Our method is based on the geometry of Riemannian manifolds with which some sets of linear subspaces are endowed.

In this study we explore the optimization of laser pulse duration to obtain the shortest possible pulse. We do this by employing a feedback loop between a pulse shaper and pulse duration measurements. We apply to this problem several iterative algorithms including gradient descent, Bayesian Optimization and genetic algorithms, using a simulation of the actual laser represented via a semi-physical model of the laser based on the process of linear and non-linear phase accumulation.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a framework for learning long-range sequence tasks. An example is the structured state-space sequence (S4) layer, which uses the diagonal-plus-low-rank structure of the HiPPO initialization framework. However, the complicated structure of the S4 layer poses challenges; and, in an effort to address these challenges, models such as S4D and S5 have considered a purely diagonal structure. This choice simplifies the implementation, improves computational efficiency, and allows channel communication. However, diagonalizing the HiPPO framework is itself an ill-posed problem. In this paper, we propose a general solution for this and related ill-posed diagonalization problems in machine learning. We introduce a generic, backward-stable "perturb-then-diagonalize" (PTD) methodology, which is based on the pseudospectral theory of non-normal operators, and which may be interpreted as the approximate diagonalization of the non-normal matrices defining SSMs. Based on this, we introduce the S4-PTD and S5-PTD models. Through theoretical analysis of the transfer functions of different initialization schemes, we demonstrate that the S4-PTD/S5-PTD initialization strongly converges to the HiPPO framework, while the S4D/S5 initialization only achieves weak convergences. As a result, our new models show resilience to Fourier-mode noise-perturbed inputs, a crucial property not achieved by the S4D/S5 models. In addition to improved robustness, our S5-PTD model averages 87.6% accuracy on the Long-Range Arena benchmark, demonstrating that the PTD methodology helps to improve the accuracy of deep learning models.

One of the current goals of neutrino experiments is to precisely determine standard unknown oscillation parameters such as the leptonic CP phase and mass hierarchy. Lorentz invariance violation represents a potential physics factor that could influence the experiment's ability to achieve these precise determinations. This study investigates the influence of Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) on oscillation dynamics, particularly through non-isotropic CPT-violating (a^{X}_{emu}, a^{X}_{etau}, a^{X}_{mutau}) and CPT-conserving (c^{XY}_{emu}, c^{XY}_{e tau}, c^{XY}_{mu tau}) parameters within the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). We analyze the impact of these parameters on the mass hierarchy (MH) and Dirac CP phase sensitivity measurements. Our findings indicate that while MH sensitivity remains relatively unaffected, only the presence of c^{XY}_{mu tau} significantly deteriorates MH sensitivity, albeit remaining above the 5 sigma threshold. Additionally, we observe a substantial compromise in CP sensitivity due to the c^{XY}_{e mu} and c^{XY}_{e tau} parameters.

We develop a novel, general and computationally efficient framework, called Divide and Conquer Dynamic Programming (DCDP), for localizing change points in time series data with high-dimensional features. DCDP deploys a class of greedy algorithms that are applicable to a broad variety of high-dimensional statistical models and can enjoy almost linear computational complexity. We investigate the performance of DCDP in three commonly studied change point settings in high dimensions: the mean model, the Gaussian graphical model, and the linear regression model. In all three cases, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for the accuracy of the DCDP change point estimators. We demonstrate that the DCDP procedures consistently estimate the change points with sharp, and in some cases, optimal rates while incurring significantly smaller computational costs than the best available algorithms. Our findings are supported by extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data.

The basic premise of using HII starburst galaxies (HIIGs) as cosmic "standard candels" is that there is a significant correlation between the Hbeta luminosity (L) and the velocity dispersion (sigma) of the ionized gas from HIIGs measurements, which can be called as the empirical L - sigma relation. However, the scaling L - sigma relation well-calibrated with the lower-redshift HIIGs is unfitted for the higher-redshift HIIGs. To solve this problem, we explore new relational expression for the L - sigma relation which should be suitable for both lower-redshift and higher-redshift HIIGs. After reconstructing the Hubble diagram with the Gaussian process (GP) method from the Pantheon+ supernovae Ia sample, we examine and compare six different revised formulas of L - sigma relation. Furthermore, we use the Bayesian evidence to compare the revised L - sigma relations with the analysis of a joint sample of 36 giant extragalactic HII regions (GEHRs) and 145 HIIGs. It turns out that the redshift-dependent bilinear correction and the quadratic sigma based correction are significantly better than the others. Moreover, a quadratic sigma based correction is the most supported one. It suggests that the appropriate corrections to the L - sigma relation should be considered when the HIIGs are used as a kind of cosmological probes.

We analyse the observational signatures of galactic magnetic fields that are self-consistently generated in magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the interstellar medium through turbulence driven by supernova (SN) explosions and differential rotation. In particular, we study the time evolution of the Faraday rotation measure (RM), synchrotron radiation, and Stokes parameters by characterising the typical structures formed in the plane of observation. We do this by defining two distinct models for both thermal and cosmic ray (CR) electron distributions. Our results indicate that the maps of RM have structures which are sheared and rendered anisotropically by differential rotation and that they depend on the choice of thermal electrons model as well as the SN rate. Synchrotron maps are qualitatively similar to the maps of the mean magnetic field along the line of sight and structures are only marginally affected by the CR model. Stokes parameters and related quantities, such as the degree of linear polarisation, are highly dependent on both frequency and resolution of the observation.

We study principal component analysis (PCA), where given a dataset in R^d from a distribution, the task is to find a unit vector v that approximately maximizes the variance of the distribution after being projected along v. Despite being a classical task, standard estimators fail drastically if the data contains even a small fraction of outliers, motivating the problem of robust PCA. Recent work has developed computationally-efficient algorithms for robust PCA that either take super-linear time or have sub-optimal error guarantees. Our main contribution is to develop a nearly-linear time algorithm for robust PCA with near-optimal error guarantees. We also develop a single-pass streaming algorithm for robust PCA with memory usage nearly-linear in the dimension.

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k_2=2k_1=0.2 h/Mpc by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

High Power Laser's (HPL) optimal performance is essential for the success of a wide variety of experimental tasks related to light-matter interactions. Traditionally, HPL parameters are optimised in an automated fashion relying on black-box numerical methods. However, these can be demanding in terms of computational resources and usually disregard transient and complex dynamics. Model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers a promising alternative framework for optimising HPL performance since it allows to tune the control parameters as a function of system states subject to nonlinear temporal dynamics without requiring an explicit dynamics model of those. Furthermore, DRL aims to find an optimal control policy rather than a static parameter configuration, particularly suitable for dynamic processes involving sequential decision-making. This is particularly relevant as laser systems are typically characterised by dynamic rather than static traits. Hence the need for a strategy to choose the control applied based on the current context instead of one single optimal control configuration. This paper investigates the potential of DRL in improving the efficiency and safety of HPL control systems. We apply this technique to optimise the temporal profile of laser pulses in the L1 pump laser hosted at the ELI Beamlines facility. We show how to adapt DRL to the setting of spectral phase control by solely tuning dispersion coefficients of the spectral phase and reaching pulses similar to transform limited with full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) of ca1.6 ps.

We allow the Higgs field Phi to interact with a dilaton field chi of the background spacetime via the coupling chi^2,Phi^daggerPhi. Upon spontaneous gauge symmetry breaking, the Higgs VEV becomes proportional to chi. While traditionally this linkage is employed to make the Planck mass and particle masses dependent on chi, we present an textit alternative mechanism: the Higgs VEV will be used to construct Planck's constant hbar and speed of light c. Specifically, each open set vicinity of a given point x^* on the spacetime manifold is equipped with a replica of the Glashow-Weinberg-Salam action operating with its own effective values of hbar_* and c_* per hbar_*proptochi^{-1/2}(x^*) and c_*proptochi^{1/2}(x^*), causing these ``fundamental constants'' to vary alongside the dynamical field chi. Moreover, in each open set around x^*, the prevailing value chi(x^*) determines the length and time scales for physical processes occurring in this region as lproptochi^{-1}(x^*) and tauproptochi^{-3/2}(x^*). This leads to an textit anisotropic relation tau^{-1}propto l^{-3/2} between the rate of clocks and the length of rods, resulting in a distinct set of novel physical phenomena. For late-time cosmology, the variation of c along the trajectory of light waves from distant supernovae towards the Earth-based observer necessitates modifications to the Lema\^itre redshift relation and the Hubble law. These modifications are capable of: (1) Accounting for the Pantheon Catalog of SNeIa through a declining speed of light in an expanding Einstein--de Sitter universe, thus avoiding the need for dark energy; (2) Revitalizing Blanchard-Douspis-Rowan-Robinson-Sarkar's CMB power spectrum analysis that bypassed dark energy [A&A 412, 35 (2003)]; and (3) Resolving the H_0 tension without requiring a dynamical dark energy component.

Multi-channel imaging data is a prevalent data format in scientific fields such as astronomy and biology. The structured information and the high dimensionality of these 3-D tensor data makes the analysis an intriguing but challenging topic for statisticians and practitioners. The low-rank scalar-on-tensor regression model, in particular, has received widespread attention and has been re-formulated as a tensor Gaussian Process (Tensor-GP) model with multi-linear kernel in Yu et al. (2018). In this paper, we extend the Tensor-GP model by integrating a dimensionality reduction technique, called tensor contraction, with a Tensor-GP for a scalar-on-tensor regression task with multi-channel imaging data. This is motivated by the solar flare forecasting problem with high dimensional multi-channel imaging data. We first estimate a latent, reduced-size tensor for each data tensor and then apply a multi-linear Tensor-GP on the latent tensor data for prediction. We introduce an anisotropic total-variation regularization when conducting the tensor contraction to obtain a sparse and smooth latent tensor. We then propose an alternating proximal gradient descent algorithm for estimation. We validate our approach via extensive simulation studies and applying it to the solar flare forecasting problem.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Neural networks often exhibit emergent behavior, where qualitatively new capabilities arise from scaling up the amount of parameters, training data, or training steps. One approach to understanding emergence is to find continuous progress measures that underlie the seemingly discontinuous qualitative changes. We argue that progress measures can be found via mechanistic interpretability: reverse-engineering learned behaviors into their individual components. As a case study, we investigate the recently-discovered phenomenon of ``grokking'' exhibited by small transformers trained on modular addition tasks. We fully reverse engineer the algorithm learned by these networks, which uses discrete Fourier transforms and trigonometric identities to convert addition to rotation about a circle. We confirm the algorithm by analyzing the activations and weights and by performing ablations in Fourier space. Based on this understanding, we define progress measures that allow us to study the dynamics of training and split training into three continuous phases: memorization, circuit formation, and cleanup. Our results show that grokking, rather than being a sudden shift, arises from the gradual amplification of structured mechanisms encoded in the weights, followed by the later removal of memorizing components.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we frame the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), temporal convolutions, and neural differential equations (NDEs) are popular families of deep learning models for time-series data, each with unique strengths and tradeoffs in modeling power and computational efficiency. We introduce a simple sequence model inspired by control systems that generalizes these approaches while addressing their shortcomings. The Linear State-Space Layer (LSSL) maps a sequence u mapsto y by simply simulating a linear continuous-time state-space representation x = Ax + Bu, y = Cx + Du. Theoretically, we show that LSSL models are closely related to the three aforementioned families of models and inherit their strengths. For example, they generalize convolutions to continuous-time, explain common RNN heuristics, and share features of NDEs such as time-scale adaptation. We then incorporate and generalize recent theory on continuous-time memorization to introduce a trainable subset of structured matrices A that endow LSSLs with long-range memory. Empirically, stacking LSSL layers into a simple deep neural network obtains state-of-the-art results across time series benchmarks for long dependencies in sequential image classification, real-world healthcare regression tasks, and speech. On a difficult speech classification task with length-16000 sequences, LSSL outperforms prior approaches by 24 accuracy points, and even outperforms baselines that use hand-crafted features on 100x shorter sequences.

In this work, we show that, if axion-like particles (ALPs) from core-collapse supernovae (SNe) couple to protons, they would produce very characteristic signatures in neutrino water Cherenkov detectors through their scattering off free protons via a , p rightarrow p , gamma interactions. Specifically, sub-MeV ALPs would generate photons with energies sim 30 MeV, which could be observed by Super-Kamiokande and Hyper-Kamiokande as a delayed signal after a future detection of SN neutrinos. We apply this to a hypothetical neighbouring SN (at a maximum distance of 100 kpc) and demonstrate that the region in the parameter space with ALP masses between 10^{-4} MeV and 1 MeV and ALP-proton couplings in the range 3 times 10^{-6}-4 times 10^{-5} could be probed. We argue that this new signature, combined with the one expected at sim 7 MeV from oxygen de-excitation, would allow us to disentangle ALP-neutron and ALP-proton couplings.

We present griz light curves of 251 Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) from the first 3 years of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program's (DES-SN) spectroscopically classified sample. The photometric pipeline described in this paper produces the calibrated fluxes and associated uncertainties used in the cosmological parameter analysis (Brout et al. 2018-SYS, DES Collaboration et al. 2018) by employing a scene modeling approach that simultaneously forward models a variable transient flux and temporally constant host galaxy. We inject artificial point sources onto DECam images to test the accuracy of our photometric method. Upon comparison of input and measured artificial supernova fluxes, we find flux biases peak at 3 mmag. We require corrections to our photometric uncertainties as a function of host galaxy surface brightness at the transient location, similar to that seen by the DES Difference Imaging Pipeline used to discover transients. The public release of the light curves can be found at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/sn.

Feature selection is the problem of selecting a subset of features for a machine learning model that maximizes model quality subject to a budget constraint. For neural networks, prior methods, including those based on ell_1 regularization, attention, and other techniques, typically select the entire feature subset in one evaluation round, ignoring the residual value of features during selection, i.e., the marginal contribution of a feature given that other features have already been selected. We propose a feature selection algorithm called Sequential Attention that achieves state-of-the-art empirical results for neural networks. This algorithm is based on an efficient one-pass implementation of greedy forward selection and uses attention weights at each step as a proxy for feature importance. We give theoretical insights into our algorithm for linear regression by showing that an adaptation to this setting is equivalent to the classical Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) algorithm, and thus inherits all of its provable guarantees. Our theoretical and empirical analyses offer new explanations towards the effectiveness of attention and its connections to overparameterization, which may be of independent interest.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Advances in time-resolved Particle Tracking Velocimetry (4D-PTV) techniques have been consistently revealed more accurate Lagrangian particle motions. A novel track initialisation technique as a complementary part of 4D-PTV, based on local temporal and spatial coherency of neighbour trajectories, is proposed. The proposed Lagrangian Coherent Track Initialisation (LCTI) applies physics-based Finite Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) to build four frame coherent tracks. We locally determine the boundaries (i.e., ridges) of Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) among neighbour trajectories by using FTLE to distinguish clusters of coherent motions. To evaluate the proposed technique, we created an open-access synthetic Lagrangian and Eulerian dataset of the wake downstream of a smooth cylinder at a Reynolds number equal to 3900 obtained from 3D Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). The dataset is available to the public. Performance of the proposed method based on three characteristic parameters, temporal scale, particle concentration (i.e., density), and noise ratio, showed robust behaviour in finding true tracks compared to the recent initialisation algorithms. Sensitivity of LCTI to the number of untracked and wrong tracks are also discussed. We address the capability of using the proposed method as a function of a 4D-PTV scheme in the Lagrangian Particle Tracking challenge for a flow with high particle densities. Finally, the LCTI behaviour was assessed in a real jet impingement experiment. LCTI was found to be a reliable tracking tool in complex flow motions, with a strength revealed for flows with high particle concentrations.

Calculating the action and the interaction Hamiltonian at higher orders in cosmological perturbation theory is a cumbersome task. We employ the formalism of EFT of inflation in models of single field ultra slow-roll inflation and obtain a non-perturbative result for the Hamiltonian in terms of the Goldstone field pi. To complete the dictionary, a non-linear relation between the curvature perturbations and pi is presented. Equipped with these non-linear results, we calculate the higher order loop corrections in USR models which are employed for PBHs formation. It is shown that the loop corrections on long CMB scales increase rapidly with the number of loop L and the setup will go out of perturbative control at the four-loop level.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

The PRObabilistic Value-Added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass (M_*), star formation rate ({rm SFR}), stellar metallicity (Z_{rm MW}), and stellar age (t_{rm age, MW}), for >10 million galaxies of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, Bayesian inference framework, and methodology of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-GALAXIES semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true galaxy properties of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true M_*, {rm SFR}, Z_{rm MW}, and t_{rm age, MW} of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors. They impose a {rm SFR}{>}10^{-1} M_odot/{rm yr} lower bound on {rm SFR}, a {sim}0.3 dex bias on log Z_{rm MW} for galaxies with low spectral signal-to-noise, and t_{rm age, MW} < 8,{rm Gyr} upper bound on stellar age. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and provide a probabilistic value-added galaxy catalog that will extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses.

We present starkiller, an open-source Python package for forward-modeling flux retrieval from integral field unit spectrograph (IFU) datacubes. Starkiller simultaneously provides stellar spectral classification, relative velocity, and line-of-sight extinction for all sources in a catalog, alongside a source-subtracted datacube. It performs synthetic difference imaging by simulating all catalog sources in the field of view, using the catalog for positions and fluxes to scale stellar models, independent of the datacube. This differencing method is particularly powerful for subtracting both point-sources and trailed or even streaked sources from extended astronomical objects. We demonstrate starkiller's effectiveness in improving observations of extended sources in dense stellar fields for VLT/MUSE observations of comets, asteroids and nebulae. We also show that starkiller can treat satellite-impacted VLT/MUSE observations. The package could be applied to tasks as varied as dust extinction in clusters and stellar variability; the stellar modeling using Gaia fluxes is provided as a standalone function. The techniques can be expanded to imagers and to other IFUs.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

This paper presents the specification, design, and development of the Visible Camera (VIS) on the ESA Euclid mission. VIS is a large optical-band imager with a field of view of 0.54 deg^2 sampled at 0.1" with an array of 609 Megapixels and spatial resolution of 0.18". It will be used to survey approximately 14,000 deg^2 of extragalactic sky to measure the distortion of galaxies in the redshift range z=0.1-1.5 resulting from weak gravitational lensing, one of the two principal cosmology probes of Euclid. With photometric redshifts, the distribution of dark matter can be mapped in three dimensions, and, from how this has changed with look-back time, the nature of dark energy and theories of gravity can be constrained. The entire VIS focal plane will be transmitted to provide the largest images of the Universe from space to date, reaching m_AB>24.5 with S/N >10 in a single broad I_E~(r+i+z) band over a six year survey. The particularly challenging aspects of the instrument are the control and calibration of observational biases, which lead to stringent performance requirements and calibration regimes. With its combination of spatial resolution, calibration knowledge, depth, and area covering most of the extra-Galactic sky, VIS will also provide a legacy data set for many other fields. This paper discusses the rationale behind the VIS concept and describes the instrument design and development before reporting the pre-launch performance derived from ground calibrations and brief results from the in-orbit commissioning. VIS should reach fainter than m_AB=25 with S/N>10 for galaxies of full-width half-maximum of 0.3" in a 1.3" diameter aperture over the Wide Survey, and m_AB>26.4 for a Deep Survey that will cover more than 50 deg^2. The paper also describes how VIS works with the other Euclid components of survey, telescope, and science data processing to extract the cosmological information.

The radial gradient of gas-phase metallicity is a powerful probe of the chemical and structural evolution of star-forming galaxies, closely tied to disk formation and gas kinematics in the early universe. We present spatially resolved chemical and dynamical properties for a sample of 25 galaxies at 0.5 lesssim z lesssim 1.7 from the \msasd survey. These innovative observations provide 3D spectroscopy of galaxies at a spatial resolution approaching JWST's diffraction limit and a high spectral resolution of Rsimeq2700. The metallicity gradients measured in our galaxy sample range from -0.03 to 0.02 dex~kpc^{-1}. Most galaxies exhibit negative or flat radial gradients, indicating lower metallicity in the outskirts or uniform metallicity throughout the entire galaxy. We confirm a tight relationship between stellar mass and metallicity gradient at zsim1 with small intrinsic scatter of 0.02 dex~kpc^{-1}. Our results indicate that metallicity gradients become increasingly negative as stellar mass increases, likely because the more massive galaxies tend to be more ``disky". This relationship is consistent with the predictions from cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations with strong stellar feedback. This work presents the effort to harness the multiplexing capability of JWST NIRSpec/MSA in slit-stepping mode to map the chemical and kinematic profiles of high-redshift galaxies in large samples and at high spatial and spectral resolution.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

We obtain the multiple-parameter quantum Cram\'er-Rao bound for estimating the transverse Cartesian components of the centroid and separation of two incoherent optical point sources using an imaging system with finite spatial bandwidth. Under quite general and realistic assumptions on the point-spread function of the imaging system, and for weak source strengths, we show that the Cram\'er-Rao bounds for the x and y components of the separation are independent of the values of those components, which may be well below the conventional Rayleigh resolution limit. We also propose two linear optics-based measurement methods that approach the quantum bound for the estimation of the Cartesian components of the separation once the centroid has been located. One of the methods is an interferometric scheme that approaches the quantum bound for sub-Rayleigh separations. The other method using fiber coupling can in principle attain the bound regardless of the distance between the two sources.

While machine-learned models are now routinely employed to facilitate astronomical inquiry, model inputs tend to be limited to a primary data source (namely images or time series) and, in the more advanced approaches, some metadata. Yet with the growing use of wide-field, multiplexed observational resources, individual sources of interest often have a broad range of observational modes available. Here we construct an astronomical multimodal dataset and propose AstroM^3, a self-supervised pre-training approach that enables a model to learn from multiple modalities simultaneously. Specifically, we extend the CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model to a trimodal setting, allowing the integration of time-series photometry data, spectra, and astrophysical metadata. In a fine-tuning supervised setting, our results demonstrate that CLIP pre-training improves classification performance for time-series photometry, where accuracy increases from 84.6% to 91.5%. Furthermore, CLIP boosts classification accuracy by up to 12.6% when the availability of labeled data is limited, showing the effectiveness of leveraging larger corpora of unlabeled data. In addition to fine-tuned classification, we can use the trained model in other downstream tasks that are not explicitly contemplated during the construction of the self-supervised model. In particular we show the efficacy of using the learned embeddings for misclassifications identification, similarity search, and anomaly detection. One surprising highlight is the "rediscovery" of Mira subtypes and two Rotational variable subclasses using manifold learning and dimension reduction algorithm. To our knowledge this is the first construction of an n>2 mode model in astronomy. Extensions to n>3 modes is naturally anticipated with this approach.

In this article, we claim that axion-like particles (ALPs) with MeV masses can be produced with semi-relativistic velocities in core-collapse supernovae (SNe), generating a diffuse galactic flux. We show that these ALPs can be detected in neutrino water Cherenkov detectors via a , p rightarrow p , gamma interactions. Using Super-Kamiokande data, we derive new constraints on the ALP parameter space, excluding a region spanning more than one order of magnitude in the ALP-proton coupling above cooling bounds for ALP masses in the range of 1-80 MeV and ALP-proton couplings between 6times10^{-6}-2times10^{-4}. We show that the future Hyper-Kamiokande will be able to probe couplings as small as 2times10^{-6}, fully closing the allowed region above SN 1987A cooling bounds.

The illumination of the accretion disks is frequently studied assuming that the incident X-ray flux is a point-like source. The approach is referred as lamppost model.The most recent computations of the X-ray reprocessing by the disk take into account the departure from the simple lamppost models. However, in computations of the incident flux thermalization and subsequent re-emission in the optical-UV band the lamppost approximation is most frequently assumed. We test if the UV-optical reverberation mapping and time delay measurements are sensitive to this assumption. We assume that the incident radiation originates from a region extended along the symmetry axis. To model this, we adopt a simple setup by representing the emission as two lamps irradiating the disk simultaneously from two different heights. We then compare the resulting predictions with those obtained for a single lamppost located at an intermediate height. We show at the basis of the transfer function that the deviation of the wavelength-dependent delay curve shows at most a difference of 20% in comparison to a single lamppost, assuming the black hole mass of 10^8 M_{odot}, Eddington ratio 1, and the location of the lamps at 5 and 100 rg. The maximum deviation happens for the lamp luminosity ratio sim3. When simulating light curves for a two-lamp setup and a standard lamppost with the same black hole mass and a sampling rate of 0.1 days, we find no measurable differences in the ICCF profiles between the two setups. Larger black hole mass and considerably lower Eddington ratio would allow to see larger differences between a single lamppost and a two-lampost model. UV/optical reverberation mapping is not very sensitive to the vertical extension of the corona.

Time series classification (TSC) on multivariate time series is a critical problem. We propose a novel multi-view approach integrating frequency-domain and time-domain features to provide complementary contexts for TSC. Our method fuses continuous wavelet transform spectral features with temporal convolutional or multilayer perceptron features. We leverage the Mamba state space model for efficient and scalable sequence modeling. We also introduce a novel tango scanning scheme to better model sequence relationships. Experiments on 10 standard benchmark datasets demonstrate our approach achieves an average 6.45% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art TSC models.

Detailed detector simulation is the major consumer of CPU resources at LHCb, having used more than 90% of the total computing budget during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. As data is collected by the upgraded LHCb detector during Run 3 of the LHC, larger requests for simulated data samples are necessary, and will far exceed the pledged resources of the experiment, even with existing fast simulation options. An evolution of technologies and techniques to produce simulated samples is mandatory to meet the upcoming needs of analysis to interpret signal versus background and measure efficiencies. In this context, we propose Lamarr, a Gaudi-based framework designed to offer the fastest solution for the simulation of the LHCb detector. Lamarr consists of a pipeline of modules parameterizing both the detector response and the reconstruction algorithms of the LHCb experiment. Most of the parameterizations are made of Deep Generative Models and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees trained on simulated samples or alternatively, where possible, on real data. Embedding Lamarr in the general LHCb Gauss Simulation framework allows combining its execution with any of the available generators in a seamless way. Lamarr has been validated by comparing key reconstructed quantities with Detailed Simulation. Good agreement of the simulated distributions is obtained with two-order-of-magnitude speed-up of the simulation phase.

Pulsar Wind Nebulae (PWNe) dominate the galactic gamma-ray sky at very high energies, and are major contributors to the leptonic cosmic ray flux. However, whether or not pulsars also accelerate ions to comparable energies is not yet experimentally confirmed. We aim to constrain the birth period and pair-production multiplicity for a set of pulsars. In doing so, we aim to constrain the proportion of ions in the pulsar magnetosphere and hence the proportion of ions that could enter the pulsar wind. We estimate possible ranges of the value of the average pair production multiplicity for a sample of 26 pulsars in the Australia Telescope National Facility (ATNF) catalogue, which have also been observed by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) telescopes. We then derive lower limits for the pulsar birth periods and average pair production multiplicities for a subset of these sources where the extent of the pulsar wind nebula and surrounding supernova shell have been measured in the radio. We also derive curves for the average pair production multiplicities as a function of birth period for sources recently observed by the Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO). We show that there is a potential for hadrons entering the pulsar wind for most of the H.E.S.S. and LHAASO sources we consider, dependent upon the efficiency of luminosity conversion into particles. We also present estimates of the pulsar birth period for six of these sources, which all fall into the range of simeq10-50 ms.

Lipschitz constants are connected to many properties of neural networks, such as robustness, fairness, and generalization. Existing methods for computing Lipschitz constants either produce relatively loose upper bounds or are limited to small networks. In this paper, we develop an efficient framework for computing the ell_infty local Lipschitz constant of a neural network by tightly upper bounding the norm of Clarke Jacobian via linear bound propagation. We formulate the computation of local Lipschitz constants with a linear bound propagation process on a high-order backward graph induced by the chain rule of Clarke Jacobian. To enable linear bound propagation, we derive tight linear relaxations for specific nonlinearities in Clarke Jacobian. This formulate unifies existing ad-hoc approaches such as RecurJac, which can be seen as a special case of ours with weaker relaxations. The bound propagation framework also allows us to easily borrow the popular Branch-and-Bound (BaB) approach from neural network verification to further tighten Lipschitz constants. Experiments show that on tiny models, our method produces comparable bounds compared to exact methods that cannot scale to slightly larger models; on larger models, our method efficiently produces tighter results than existing relaxed or naive methods, and our method scales to much larger practical models that previous works could not handle. We also demonstrate an application on provable monotonicity analysis. Code is available at https://github.com/shizhouxing/Local-Lipschitz-Constants.

Gravitational waves from merging binary neutron stars carry characteristic information about their astrophysical properties, including masses and tidal deformabilities, that are needed to infer their radii. In this study, we use Bayesian inference to quantify the precision with which radius can inferred with upgrades in the current gravitational wave detectors and next-generation observatories such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. We assign evidences for a set of plausible equations of state, which are then used as weights to obtain radius posteriors. We find that prior choices and the loudness of observed signals limit the precision and accuracy of inferred radii by current detectors. In contrast, next-generation observatories can resolve the radius precisely and accurately, across most of the mass range to within lesssim 5% for both soft and stiff equations of state. We also explore how the choice of the neutron star mass prior can influence the inferred masses and potentially affect radii measurements, finding that choosing an astrophysically motivated prior does not notably impact an individual neutron star's radius measurements.

While neural networks can be approximated by linear models as their width increases, certain properties of wide neural networks cannot be captured by linear models. In this work we show that recently proposed Neural Quadratic Models can exhibit the "catapult phase" [Lewkowycz et al. 2020] that arises when training such models with large learning rates. We then empirically show that the behaviour of neural quadratic models parallels that of neural networks in generalization, especially in the catapult phase regime. Our analysis further demonstrates that quadratic models can be an effective tool for analysis of neural networks.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for safety-sensitive machine learning applications and has been extensively studied, yielding a plethora of methods developed in the literature. However, most studies for OOD detection did not use pre-trained models and trained a backbone from scratch. In recent years, transferring knowledge from large pre-trained models to downstream tasks by lightweight tuning has become mainstream for training in-distribution (ID) classifiers. To bridge the gap between the practice of OOD detection and current classifiers, the unique and crucial problem is that the samples whose information networks know often come as OOD input. We consider that such data may significantly affect the performance of large pre-trained networks because the discriminability of these OOD data depends on the pre-training algorithm. Here, we define such OOD data as PT-OOD (Pre-Trained OOD) data. In this paper, we aim to reveal the effect of PT-OOD on the OOD detection performance of pre-trained networks from the perspective of pre-training algorithms. To achieve this, we explore the PT-OOD detection performance of supervised and self-supervised pre-training algorithms with linear-probing tuning, the most common efficient tuning method. Through our experiments and analysis, we find that the low linear separability of PT-OOD in the feature space heavily degrades the PT-OOD detection performance, and self-supervised models are more vulnerable to PT-OOD than supervised pre-trained models, even with state-of-the-art detection methods. To solve this vulnerability, we further propose a unique solution to large-scale pre-trained models: Leveraging powerful instance-by-instance discriminative representations of pre-trained models and detecting OOD in the feature space independent of the ID decision boundaries. The code will be available via https://github.com/AtsuMiyai/PT-OOD.

The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) is an open data challenge to classify simulated astronomical time-series data in preparation for observations from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), which will achieve first light in 2019 and commence its 10-year main survey in 2022. LSST will revolutionize our understanding of the changing sky, discovering and measuring millions of time-varying objects. In this challenge, we pose the question: how well can we classify objects in the sky that vary in brightness from simulated LSST time-series data, with all its challenges of non-representativity? In this note we explain the need for a data challenge to help classify such astronomical sources and describe the PLAsTiCC data set and Kaggle data challenge, noting that while the references are provided for context, they are not needed to participate in the challenge.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

The Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) family of methods is foundational in multiview learning. Regularised linear CCA methods can be seen to generalise Partial Least Squares (PLS) and be unified with a Generalized Eigenvalue Problem (GEP) framework. However, classical algorithms for these linear methods are computationally infeasible for large-scale data. Extensions to Deep CCA show great promise, but current training procedures are slow and complicated. First we propose a novel unconstrained objective that characterizes the top subspace of GEPs. Our core contribution is a family of fast algorithms for stochastic PLS, stochastic CCA, and Deep CCA, simply obtained by applying stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to the corresponding CCA objectives. Our algorithms show far faster convergence and recover higher correlations than the previous state-of-the-art on all standard CCA and Deep CCA benchmarks. These improvements allow us to perform a first-of-its-kind PLS analysis of an extremely large biomedical dataset from the UK Biobank, with over 33,000 individuals and 500,000 features. Finally, we apply our algorithms to match the performance of `CCA-family' Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 with minimal hyper-parameter tuning, and also present theory to clarify the links between these methods and classical CCA, laying the groundwork for future insights.

In the present research, we delve into the intricate realm of electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis, focusing on sequence-to-sequence prediction of data across 32 EEG channels. The study harmoniously fuses the principles of applied chaos theory and dynamical systems theory to engender a novel feature set, enriching the representational capacity of our deep learning model. The endeavour's cornerstone is a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence architecture, calibrated meticulously to capture the non-linear and high-dimensional temporal dependencies inherent in EEG sequences. Through judicious architecture design, parameter initialisation strategies, and optimisation techniques, we have navigated the intricate balance between computational expediency and predictive performance. Our model stands as a vanguard in EEG data sequence prediction, demonstrating remarkable generalisability and robustness. The findings not only extend our understanding of EEG data dynamics but also unveil a potent analytical framework that can be adapted to diverse temporal sequence prediction tasks in neuroscience and beyond.

Autoencoders have been proposed as a powerful tool for model-independent anomaly detection in high-energy physics. The operating principle is that events which do not belong to the space of training data will be reconstructed poorly, thus flagging them as anomalies. We point out that in a variety of examples of interest, the connection between large reconstruction error and anomalies is not so clear. In particular, for data sets with nontrivial topology, there will always be points that erroneously seem anomalous due to global issues. Conversely, neural networks typically have an inductive bias or prior to locally interpolate such that undersampled or rare events may be reconstructed with small error, despite actually being the desired anomalies. Taken together, these facts are in tension with the simple picture of the autoencoder as an anomaly detector. Using a series of illustrative low-dimensional examples, we show explicitly how the intrinsic and extrinsic topology of the dataset affects the behavior of an autoencoder and how this topology is manifested in the latent space representation during training. We ground this analysis in the discussion of a mock "bump hunt" in which the autoencoder fails to identify an anomalous "signal" for reasons tied to the intrinsic topology of n-particle phase space.

Neutron tagging in Gadolinium-doped water may play a significant role in reducing backgrounds from atmospheric neutrinos in next generation proton-decay searches using megaton-scale Water Cherenkov detectors. Similar techniques might also be useful in the detection of supernova neutrinos. Accurate determination of neutron tagging efficiencies will require a detailed understanding of the number of neutrons produced by neutrino interactions in water as a function of momentum transferred. We propose the Atmospheric Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE), designed to measure the neutron yield of atmospheric neutrino interactions in gadolinium-doped water. An innovative aspect of the ANNIE design is the use of precision timing to localize interaction vertices in the small fiducial volume of the detector. We propose to achieve this by using early production of LAPPDs (Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors). This experiment will be a first application of these devices demonstrating their feasibility for Water Cherenkov neutrino detectors.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Neutron tagging in Gadolinium-doped water may play a significant role in reducing backgrounds from atmospheric neutrinos in next generation proton-decay searches using megaton-scale Water Cherenkov detectors. Similar techniques might also be useful in the detection of supernova neutrinos. Accurate determination of neutron tagging efficiencies will require a detailed understanding of the number of neutrons produced by neutrino interactions in water as a function of momentum transferred. We propose the Atmospheric Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE), designed to measure the neutron yield of atmospheric neutrino interactions in gadolinium-doped water. An innovative aspect of the ANNIE design is the use of precision timing to localize interaction vertices in the small fiducial volume of the detector. We propose to achieve this by using early production of LAPPDs (Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors). This experiment will be a first application of these devices demonstrating their feasibility for Water Cherenkov neutrino detectors.

Recently, universal waveform generation tasks have been investigated conditioned on various out-of-distribution scenarios. Although GAN-based methods have shown their strength in fast waveform generation, they are vulnerable to train-inference mismatch scenarios such as two-stage text-to-speech. Meanwhile, diffusion-based models have shown their powerful generative performance in other domains; however, they stay out of the limelight due to slow inference speed in waveform generation tasks. Above all, there is no generator architecture that can explicitly disentangle the natural periodic features of high-resolution waveform signals. In this paper, we propose PeriodWave, a novel universal waveform generation model. First, we introduce a period-aware flow matching estimator that can capture the periodic features of the waveform signal when estimating the vector fields. Additionally, we utilize a multi-period estimator that avoids overlaps to capture different periodic features of waveform signals. Although increasing the number of periods can improve the performance significantly, this requires more computational costs. To reduce this issue, we also propose a single period-conditional universal estimator that can feed-forward parallel by period-wise batch inference. Additionally, we utilize discrete wavelet transform to losslessly disentangle the frequency information of waveform signals for high-frequency modeling, and introduce FreeU to reduce the high-frequency noise for waveform generation. The experimental results demonstrated that our model outperforms the previous models both in Mel-spectrogram reconstruction and text-to-speech tasks. All source code will be available at https://github.com/sh-lee-prml/PeriodWave.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) offer fast inference on long sequences but are hard to optimize and slow to train. Deep state-space models (SSMs) have recently been shown to perform remarkably well on long sequence modeling tasks, and have the added benefits of fast parallelizable training and RNN-like fast inference. However, while SSMs are superficially similar to RNNs, there are important differences that make it unclear where their performance boost over RNNs comes from. In this paper, we show that careful design of deep RNNs using standard signal propagation arguments can recover the impressive performance of deep SSMs on long-range reasoning tasks, while also matching their training speed. To achieve this, we analyze and ablate a series of changes to standard RNNs including linearizing and diagonalizing the recurrence, using better parameterizations and initializations, and ensuring proper normalization of the forward pass. Our results provide new insights on the origins of the impressive performance of deep SSMs, while also introducing an RNN block called the Linear Recurrent Unit that matches both their performance on the Long Range Arena benchmark and their computational efficiency.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

We describe in the context of the particle physics (PP) standard model (SM) `PP-SM' the understanding of the primordial properties and composition of the Universe in the temperature range 130GeV>T>20keV. The Universe evolution is described using FLRW cosmology. We present a global view on particle content across time and describe the different evolution eras using deceleration parameter q. We follow the arrow of time in the expanding and cooling Universe: After the PP-SM heavies (t, h, W, Z) diminish in abundance below Tsimeq 50GeV, the PP-SM plasma in the Universe is governed by the strongly interacting Quark-Gluon content. Once the temperature drops below Tsimeq 150MeV, quarks and gluons hadronize into strongly interacting matter particles. Rapid disappearance of baryonic antimatter completes at T_B=38.2MeV. We study the ensuing disappearance of strangeness and mesons in general. We show that the different eras defined by particle populations are barely separated from each other with abundance of muons fading out just prior to T=O(2.5)MeV, the era of emergence of the free-streaming neutrinos. We discuss the two relevant fundamental constants controlling the decoupling of neutrinos. We subsequently follow the primordial Universe as it passes through the hot dense electron-positron plasma epoch. The high density of positron antimatter disappears near T=20.3keV: Nuclear reactions occur in the presence of a highly mobile and relatively strongly interacting electron-positron plasma phase. We apply plasma theory methods to describe the strong screening effects between heavy dust particle (nucleons). We analyze the paramagnetic characteristics of the electron-positron plasma when exposed to an external primordial magnetic field.

At initialization, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are equivalent to Gaussian processes in the infinite-width limit, thus connecting them to kernel methods. We prove that the evolution of an ANN during training can also be described by a kernel: during gradient descent on the parameters of an ANN, the network function f_theta (which maps input vectors to output vectors) follows the kernel gradient of the functional cost (which is convex, in contrast to the parameter cost) w.r.t. a new kernel: the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). This kernel is central to describe the generalization features of ANNs. While the NTK is random at initialization and varies during training, in the infinite-width limit it converges to an explicit limiting kernel and it stays constant during training. This makes it possible to study the training of ANNs in function space instead of parameter space. Convergence of the training can then be related to the positive-definiteness of the limiting NTK. We prove the positive-definiteness of the limiting NTK when the data is supported on the sphere and the non-linearity is non-polynomial. We then focus on the setting of least-squares regression and show that in the infinite-width limit, the network function f_theta follows a linear differential equation during training. The convergence is fastest along the largest kernel principal components of the input data with respect to the NTK, hence suggesting a theoretical motivation for early stopping. Finally we study the NTK numerically, observe its behavior for wide networks, and compare it to the infinite-width limit.

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et al. (2017)). This gives rise to a novel sequence prediction architecture we call a spectral state space model. Spectral state space models have two primary advantages. First, they have provable robustness properties as their performance depends on neither the spectrum of the underlying dynamics nor the dimensionality of the problem. Second, these models are constructed with fixed convolutional filters that do not require learning while still outperforming SSMs in both theory and practice. The resulting models are evaluated on synthetic dynamical systems and long-range prediction tasks of various modalities. These evaluations support the theoretical benefits of spectral filtering for tasks requiring very long range memory.

Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging (FLI) is a critical molecular imaging modality that provides unique information about the tissue microenvironment, which is invaluable for biomedical applications. FLI operates by acquiring and analyzing photon time-of-arrival histograms to extract quantitative parameters associated with temporal fluorescence decay. These histograms are influenced by the intrinsic properties of the fluorophore, instrument parameters, time-of-flight distributions associated with pixel-wise variations in the topographic and optical characteristics of the sample. Recent advancements in Deep Learning (DL) have enabled improved fluorescence lifetime parameter estimation. However, existing models are primarily designed for planar surface samples, limiting their applicability in translational scenarios involving complex surface profiles, such as in-vivo whole-animal or imaged guided surgical applications. To address this limitation, we present MFliNet (Macroscopic FLI Network), a novel DL architecture that integrates the Instrument Response Function (IRF) as an additional input alongside experimental photon time-of-arrival histograms. Leveraging the capabilities of a Differential Transformer encoder-decoder architecture, MFliNet effectively focuses on critical input features, such as variations in photon time-of-arrival distributions. We evaluate MFliNet using rigorously designed tissue-mimicking phantoms and preclinical in-vivo cancer xenograft models. Our results demonstrate the model's robustness and suitability for complex macroscopic FLI applications, offering new opportunities for advanced biomedical imaging in diverse and challenging settings.

Trajectory prediction plays an important role in various applications, including autonomous driving, robotics, and scene understanding. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing compact neural networks to increase prediction precision on public datasets, typically employing a standardized input duration. However, a notable issue arises when these models are evaluated with varying observation lengths, leading to a significant performance drop, a phenomenon we term the Observation Length Shift. To address this issue, we introduce a general and effective framework, the FlexiLength Network (FLN), to enhance the robustness of existing trajectory prediction techniques against varying observation periods. Specifically, FLN integrates trajectory data with diverse observation lengths, incorporates FlexiLength Calibration (FLC) to acquire temporal invariant representations, and employs FlexiLength Adaptation (FLA) to further refine these representations for more accurate future trajectory predictions. Comprehensive experiments on multiple datasets, ie, ETH/UCY, nuScenes, and Argoverse 1, demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed FLN framework.