Daily Papers

In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

Reasoning on knowledge graphs is a challenging task because it utilizes observed information to predict the missing one. Particularly, answering complex queries based on first-order logic is one of the crucial tasks to verify learning to reason abilities for generalization and composition. Recently, the prevailing method is query embedding which learns the embedding of a set of entities and treats logic operations as set operations and has shown great empirical success. Though there has been much research following the same formulation, many of its claims lack a formal and systematic inspection. In this paper, we rethink this formulation and justify many of the previous claims by characterizing the scope of queries investigated previously and precisely identifying the gap between its formulation and its goal, as well as providing complexity analysis for the currently investigated queries. Moreover, we develop a new dataset containing ten new types of queries with features that have never been considered and therefore can provide a thorough investigation of complex queries. Finally, we propose a new neural-symbolic method, Fuzzy Inference with Truth value (FIT), where we equip the neural link predictors with fuzzy logic theory to support end-to-end learning using complex queries with provable reasoning capability. Empirical results show that our method outperforms previous methods significantly in the new dataset and also surpasses previous methods in the existing dataset at the same time.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

Scholars studying organizations often work with multiple datasets lacking shared unique identifiers or covariates. In such situations, researchers may turn to approximate string matching methods to combine datasets. String matching, although useful, faces fundamental challenges. Even when two strings appear similar to humans, fuzzy matching often does not work because it fails to adapt to the informativeness of the character combinations presented. Worse, many entities have multiple names that are dissimilar (e.g., "Fannie Mae" and "Federal National Mortgage Association"), a case where string matching has little hope of succeeding. This paper introduces data from a prominent employment-related networking site (LinkedIn) as a tool to address these problems. We propose interconnected approaches to leveraging the massive amount of information from LinkedIn regarding organizational name-to-name links. The first approach builds a machine learning model for predicting matches from character strings, treating the trillions of user-contributed organizational name pairs as a training corpus: this approach constructs a string matching metric that explicitly maximizes match probabilities. A second approach identifies relationships between organization names using network representations of the LinkedIn data. A third approach combines the first and second. We document substantial improvements over fuzzy matching in applications, making all methods accessible in open-source software ("LinkOrgs").

Fuzzy (wave) dark matter (FDM), the dynamical model underlying an ultralight bosonic dark matter species, produces a rich set of non-gravitational signatures that distinguishes it markedly from the phenomenologically related warm (particle) dark matter (WDM) scenario. The emergence of extended interference fringes hosted by cosmic filaments is one such phenomenon reported by cosmological simulations, and a detailed understanding of such may strengthen existing limits on the boson mass but also break the degeneracy with WDM, and provide a unique fingerprint of interference in cosmology. In this paper, we provide initial steps towards this goal. In particular, we show in a bottom-up approach, how the presence of interference in an idealised filament population can lead to a non-suppressive feature in the matter power spectrum -- an observation supported by fully-cosmological FDM simulations. To this end, we build on a theoretically motivated and numerically observed steady-state approximation for filaments and express the equilibrium dynamics of such in an expansion of FDM eigenstates. We optimise the size of the expansion by incorporating classical phase-space information. Ellipsoidal collapse considerations are used to construct a fuzzy filament mass function which, together with the reconstructed FDM wave function, allow us to efficiently compute the one-filament power spectrum. We showcase our non-perturbative interference model for a selection of boson masses and confirm our approach is able to produce the matter power boost observed in fully-cosmological FDM simulations. More precisely, we find an excess in correlation between the spatial scale associated with the FDM ground state and the quantum pressure scale. We speculate about applications of this effect in data analysis.

Despite the recent successes of deep learning, such models are still far from some human abilities like learning from few examples, reasoning and explaining decisions. In this paper, we focus on organ annotation in medical images and we introduce a reasoning framework that is based on learning fuzzy relations on a small dataset for generating explanations. Given a catalogue of relations, it efficiently induces the most relevant relations and combines them for building constraints in order to both solve the organ annotation task and generate explanations. We test our approach on a publicly available dataset of medical images where several organs are already segmented. A demonstration of our model is proposed with an example of explained annotations. It was trained on a small training set containing as few as a couple of examples.