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Mar 11

TransICD: Transformer Based Code-wise Attention Model for Explainable ICD Coding

International Classification of Disease (ICD) coding procedure which refers to tagging medical notes with diagnosis codes has been shown to be effective and crucial to the billing system in medical sector. Currently, ICD codes are assigned to a clinical note manually which is likely to cause many errors. Moreover, training skilled coders also requires time and human resources. Therefore, automating the ICD code determination process is an important task. With the advancement of artificial intelligence theory and computational hardware, machine learning approach has emerged as a suitable solution to automate this process. In this project, we apply a transformer-based architecture to capture the interdependence among the tokens of a document and then use a code-wise attention mechanism to learn code-specific representations of the entire document. Finally, they are fed to separate dense layers for corresponding code prediction. Furthermore, to handle the imbalance in the code frequency of clinical datasets, we employ a label distribution aware margin (LDAM) loss function. The experimental results on the MIMIC-III dataset show that our proposed model outperforms other baselines by a significant margin. In particular, our best setting achieves a micro-AUC score of 0.923 compared to 0.868 of bidirectional recurrent neural networks. We also show that by using the code-wise attention mechanism, the model can provide more insights about its prediction, and thus it can support clinicians to make reliable decisions. Our code is available online (https://github.com/biplob1ly/TransICD)

StreetSurfaceVis: a dataset of crowdsourced street-level imagery with semi-automated annotations of road surface type and quality

Road unevenness significantly impacts the safety and comfort of various traffic participants, especially vulnerable road users such as cyclists and wheelchair users. This paper introduces StreetSurfaceVis, a novel dataset comprising 9,122 street-level images collected from a crowdsourcing platform and manually annotated by road surface type and quality. The dataset is intended to train models for comprehensive surface assessments of road networks. Existing open datasets are constrained by limited geospatial coverage and camera setups, typically excluding cycleways and footways. By crafting a heterogeneous dataset, we aim to fill this gap and enable robust models that maintain high accuracy across diverse image sources. However, the frequency distribution of road surface types and qualities is highly imbalanced. We address the challenge of ensuring sufficient images per class while reducing manual annotation by proposing a sampling strategy that incorporates various external label prediction resources. More precisely, we estimate the impact of (1) enriching the image data with OpenStreetMap tags, (2) iterative training and application of a custom surface type classification model, (3) amplifying underrepresented classes through prompt-based classification with GPT-4o or similarity search using image embeddings. We show that utilizing a combination of these strategies effectively reduces manual annotation workload while ensuring sufficient class representation.

A systematic study of the class imbalance problem in convolutional neural networks

In this study, we systematically investigate the impact of class imbalance on classification performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and compare frequently used methods to address the issue. Class imbalance is a common problem that has been comprehensively studied in classical machine learning, yet very limited systematic research is available in the context of deep learning. In our study, we use three benchmark datasets of increasing complexity, MNIST, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, to investigate the effects of imbalance on classification and perform an extensive comparison of several methods to address the issue: oversampling, undersampling, two-phase training, and thresholding that compensates for prior class probabilities. Our main evaluation metric is area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) adjusted to multi-class tasks since overall accuracy metric is associated with notable difficulties in the context of imbalanced data. Based on results from our experiments we conclude that (i) the effect of class imbalance on classification performance is detrimental; (ii) the method of addressing class imbalance that emerged as dominant in almost all analyzed scenarios was oversampling; (iii) oversampling should be applied to the level that completely eliminates the imbalance, whereas the optimal undersampling ratio depends on the extent of imbalance; (iv) as opposed to some classical machine learning models, oversampling does not cause overfitting of CNNs; (v) thresholding should be applied to compensate for prior class probabilities when overall number of properly classified cases is of interest.

Accuracy on the Curve: On the Nonlinear Correlation of ML Performance Between Data Subpopulations

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Breast Tumor Classification Using EfficientNet Deep Learning Model

Precise breast cancer classification on histopathological images has the potential to greatly improve the diagnosis and patient outcome in oncology. The data imbalance problem largely stems from the inherent imbalance within medical image datasets, where certain tumor subtypes may appear much less frequently. This constitutes a considerable limitation in biased model predictions that can overlook critical but rare classes. In this work, we adopted EfficientNet, a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network (CNN) model that balances high accuracy with computational cost efficiency. To address data imbalance, we introduce an intensive data augmentation pipeline and cost-sensitive learning, improving representation and ensuring that the model does not overly favor majority classes. This approach provides the ability to learn effectively from rare tumor types, improving its robustness. Additionally, we fine-tuned the model using transfer learning, where weights in the beginning trained on a binary classification task were adopted to multi-class classification, improving the capability to detect complex patterns within the BreakHis dataset. Our results underscore significant improvements in the binary classification performance, achieving an exceptional recall increase for benign cases from 0.92 to 0.95, alongside an accuracy enhancement from 97.35 % to 98.23%. Our approach improved the performance of multi-class tasks from 91.27% with regular augmentation to 94.54% with intensive augmentation, reaching 95.04% with transfer learning. This framework demonstrated substantial gains in precision in the minority classes, such as Mucinous carcinoma and Papillary carcinoma, while maintaining high recall consistently across these critical subtypes, as further confirmed by confusion matrix analysis.

Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Experts

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Improving General Text Embedding Model: Tackling Task Conflict and Data Imbalance through Model Merging

Text embeddings are vital for tasks such as text retrieval and semantic textual similarity (STS). Recently, the advent of pretrained language models, along with unified benchmarks like the Massive Text Embedding Benchmark (MTEB), has facilitated the development of versatile general-purpose text embedding models. Advanced embedding models are typically developed using large-scale multi-task data and joint training across multiple tasks. However, our experimental analysis reveals two significant drawbacks of joint training: 1) Task Conflict: Gradients from different tasks interfere with each other, leading to negative transfer. 2) Data Imbalance: Disproportionate data distribution introduces biases that negatively impact performance across tasks. To overcome these challenges, we explore model merging-a technique that combines independently trained models to mitigate gradient conflicts and balance data distribution. We introduce a novel method, Self Positioning, which efficiently searches for optimal model combinations within the interpolation space of task vectors using stochastic gradient descent. Our experiments demonstrate that Self Positioning significantly enhances multi-task performance on the MTEB dataset, achieving an absolute improvement of 0.7 points. It outperforms traditional resampling methods while reducing computational costs. This work offers a robust approach to building generalized text embedding models with superior performance across diverse embedding-related tasks.

SMOTE: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique

An approach to the construction of classifiers from imbalanced datasets is described. A dataset is imbalanced if the classification categories are not approximately equally represented. Often real-world data sets are predominately composed of "normal" examples with only a small percentage of "abnormal" or "interesting" examples. It is also the case that the cost of misclassifying an abnormal (interesting) example as a normal example is often much higher than the cost of the reverse error. Under-sampling of the majority (normal) class has been proposed as a good means of increasing the sensitivity of a classifier to the minority class. This paper shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority (abnormal) class and under-sampling the majority (normal) class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than only under-sampling the majority class. This paper also shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority class and under-sampling the majority class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than varying the loss ratios in Ripper or class priors in Naive Bayes. Our method of over-sampling the minority class involves creating synthetic minority class examples. Experiments are performed using C4.5, Ripper and a Naive Bayes classifier. The method is evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) and the ROC convex hull strategy.

The Role of Language Imbalance in Cross-lingual Generalisation: Insights from Cloned Language Experiments

Multilinguality is crucial for extending recent advancements in language modelling to diverse linguistic communities. To maintain high performance while representing multiple languages, multilingual models ideally align representations, allowing what is learned in one language to generalise to others. Prior research has emphasised the importance of parallel data and shared vocabulary elements as key factors for such alignment. In this study, we investigate an unintuitive novel driver of cross-lingual generalisation: language imbalance. In controlled experiments on perfectly equivalent cloned languages, we observe that the existence of a predominant language during training boosts the performance of less frequent languages and leads to stronger alignment of model representations across languages. Furthermore, we find that this trend is amplified with scale: with large enough models or long enough training, we observe that bilingual training data with a 90/10 language split yields better performance on both languages than a balanced 50/50 split. Building on these insights, we design training schemes that can improve performance in all cloned languages, even without altering the training data. As we extend our analysis to real languages, we find that infrequent languages still benefit from frequent ones, yet whether language imbalance causes cross-lingual generalisation there is not conclusive.

A Closer Look at AUROC and AUPRC under Class Imbalance

In machine learning (ML), a widespread adage is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for binary classification tasks with class imbalance. This paper challenges this notion through novel mathematical analysis, illustrating that AUROC and AUPRC can be concisely related in probabilistic terms. We demonstrate that AUPRC, contrary to popular belief, is not superior in cases of class imbalance and might even be a harmful metric, given its inclination to unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels. This bias can inadvertently heighten algorithmic disparities. Prompted by these insights, a thorough review of existing ML literature was conducted, utilizing large language models to analyze over 1.5 million papers from arXiv. Our investigation focused on the prevalence and substantiation of the purported AUPRC superiority. The results expose a significant deficit in empirical backing and a trend of misattributions that have fuelled the widespread acceptance of AUPRC's supposed advantages. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding metric behaviors and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community. All experiments are accessible at https://github.com/mmcdermott/AUC_is_all_you_need.

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started. Our data provide compelling statistical support for the DHM physics model of coin tossing.

Beta-Rank: A Robust Convolutional Filter Pruning Method For Imbalanced Medical Image Analysis

As deep neural networks include a high number of parameters and operations, it can be a challenge to implement these models on devices with limited computational resources. Despite the development of novel pruning methods toward resource-efficient models, it has become evident that these models are not capable of handling "imbalanced" and "limited number of data points". We proposed a novel filter pruning method by considering the input and output of filters along with the values of the filters that deal with imbalanced datasets better than others. Our pruning method considers the fact that all information about the importance of a filter may not be reflected in the value of the filter. Instead, it is reflected in the changes made to the data after the filter is applied to it. In this work, three methods are compared with the same training conditions except for the ranking values of each method, and 14 methods are compared from other papers. We demonstrated that our model performed significantly better than other methods for imbalanced medical datasets. For example, when we removed up to 58% of FLOPs for the IDRID dataset and up to 45% for the ISIC dataset, our model was able to yield an equivalent (or even superior) result to the baseline model. To evaluate FLOP and parameter reduction using our model in real-world settings, we built a smartphone app, where we demonstrated a reduction of up to 79% in memory usage and 72% in prediction time. All codes and parameters for training different models are available at https://github.com/mohofar/Beta-Rank

Spurious Feature Diversification Improves Out-of-distribution Generalization

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

Predicting Rare Events by Shrinking Towards Proportional Odds

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.