new

Get trending papers in your email inbox!

Subscribe

byAK and the research community

Mar 11

Enhancing Price Prediction in Cryptocurrency Using Transformer Neural Network and Technical Indicators

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) to capture temporal dynamics and extract significant features from raw cryptocurrency data. The application of technical indicators, such facilitates the extraction of intricate patterns, momentum, volatility, and trends. The Performer neural network, employing Fast Attention Via positive Orthogonal Random features (FAVOR+), has demonstrated superior computational efficiency and scalability compared to the traditional Multi-head attention mechanism in Transformer models. Additionally, the integration of BiLSTM in the feedforward network enhances the model's capacity to capture temporal dynamics in the data, processing it in both forward and backward directions. This is particularly advantageous for time series data where past and future data points can influence the current state. The proposed method has been applied to the hourly and daily timeframes of the major cryptocurrencies and its performance has been benchmarked against other methods documented in the literature. The results underscore the potential of the proposed method to outperform existing models, marking a significant progression in the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.

Autoregressive Transformer Neural Network for Simulating Open Quantum Systems via a Probabilistic Formulation

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

Deep Optimizer States: Towards Scalable Training of Transformer Models Using Interleaved Offloading

Transformers and large language models~(LLMs) have seen rapid adoption in all domains. Their sizes have exploded to hundreds of billions of parameters and keep increasing. Under these circumstances, the training of transformers is very expensive and often hits a ``memory wall'', i.e., even when using 3D parallelism (pipeline, tensor, data) and aggregating the memory of many GPUs, it is still not enough to hold the necessary data structures (model parameters, optimizer state, gradients, activations) in GPU memory. To compensate, state-of-the-art approaches offload the optimizer state, at least partially, to the host memory and perform hybrid CPU-GPU computations. However, the management of the combined host-GPU memory is often suboptimal and results in poor overlapping between data movements and computations. This leads to missed opportunities to simultaneously leverage the interconnect bandwidth and computational capabilities of CPUs and GPUs. In this paper, we leverage a key observation that the interleaving of the forward, backward and update phases generate fluctuations in the GPU memory utilization, which can be exploited to dynamically move a part of the optimizer state between the host and the GPU memory at each iteration. To this end, we design and implement \proj, a novel technique to split the LLM into subgroups, whose update phase is scheduled on either the CPU or the GPU based on our proposed performance model that addresses the trade-off between data movement cost, acceleration on the GPUs vs the CPUs, and competition for shared resources. We integrate our approach with DeepSpeed and demonstrate 2.5times faster iterations over state-of-the-art approaches using extensive experiments.

Continual Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Hypernetworks

Effective planning in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) and model-predictive control (MPC) relies on the accuracy of the learned dynamics model. In many instances of MBRL and MPC, this model is assumed to be stationary and is periodically re-trained from scratch on state transition experience collected from the beginning of environment interactions. This implies that the time required to train the dynamics model - and the pause required between plan executions - grows linearly with the size of the collected experience. We argue that this is too slow for lifelong robot learning and propose HyperCRL, a method that continually learns the encountered dynamics in a sequence of tasks using task-conditional hypernetworks. Our method has three main attributes: first, it includes dynamics learning sessions that do not revisit training data from previous tasks, so it only needs to store the most recent fixed-size portion of the state transition experience; second, it uses fixed-capacity hypernetworks to represent non-stationary and task-aware dynamics; third, it outperforms existing continual learning alternatives that rely on fixed-capacity networks, and does competitively with baselines that remember an ever increasing coreset of past experience. We show that HyperCRL is effective in continual model-based reinforcement learning in robot locomotion and manipulation scenarios, such as tasks involving pushing and door opening. Our project website with videos is at this link https://rvl.cs.toronto.edu/blog/2020/hypercrl

Reward-Consistent Dynamics Models are Strongly Generalizable for Offline Reinforcement Learning

Learning a precise dynamics model can be crucial for offline reinforcement learning, which, unfortunately, has been found to be quite challenging. Dynamics models that are learned by fitting historical transitions often struggle to generalize to unseen transitions. In this study, we identify a hidden but pivotal factor termed dynamics reward that remains consistent across transitions, offering a pathway to better generalization. Therefore, we propose the idea of reward-consistent dynamics models: any trajectory generated by the dynamics model should maximize the dynamics reward derived from the data. We implement this idea as the MOREC (Model-based Offline reinforcement learning with Reward Consistency) method, which can be seamlessly integrated into previous offline model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) methods. MOREC learns a generalizable dynamics reward function from offline data, which is subsequently employed as a transition filter in any offline MBRL method: when generating transitions, the dynamics model generates a batch of transitions and selects the one with the highest dynamics reward value. On a synthetic task, we visualize that MOREC has a strong generalization ability and can surprisingly recover some distant unseen transitions. On 21 offline tasks in D4RL and NeoRL benchmarks, MOREC improves the previous state-of-the-art performance by a significant margin, i.e., 4.6% on D4RL tasks and 25.9% on NeoRL tasks. Notably, MOREC is the first method that can achieve above 95% online RL performance in 6 out of 12 D4RL tasks and 3 out of 9 NeoRL tasks.

On Neural Differential Equations

The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.

Objective Mismatch in Model-based Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has been shown to be a powerful framework for data-efficiently learning control of continuous tasks. Recent work in MBRL has mostly focused on using more advanced function approximators and planning schemes, with little development of the general framework. In this paper, we identify a fundamental issue of the standard MBRL framework -- what we call the objective mismatch issue. Objective mismatch arises when one objective is optimized in the hope that a second, often uncorrelated, metric will also be optimized. In the context of MBRL, we characterize the objective mismatch between training the forward dynamics model w.r.t.~the likelihood of the one-step ahead prediction, and the overall goal of improving performance on a downstream control task. For example, this issue can emerge with the realization that dynamics models effective for a specific task do not necessarily need to be globally accurate, and vice versa globally accurate models might not be sufficiently accurate locally to obtain good control performance on a specific task. In our experiments, we study this objective mismatch issue and demonstrate that the likelihood of one-step ahead predictions is not always correlated with control performance. This observation highlights a critical limitation in the MBRL framework which will require further research to be fully understood and addressed. We propose an initial method to mitigate the mismatch issue by re-weighting dynamics model training. Building on it, we conclude with a discussion about other potential directions of research for addressing this issue.

Demystifying the Token Dynamics of Deep Selective State Space Models

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

Inverse Dynamics Pretraining Learns Good Representations for Multitask Imitation

In recent years, domains such as natural language processing and image recognition have popularized the paradigm of using large datasets to pretrain representations that can be effectively transferred to downstream tasks. In this work we evaluate how such a paradigm should be done in imitation learning, where both pretraining and finetuning data are trajectories collected by experts interacting with an unknown environment. Namely, we consider a setting where the pretraining corpus consists of multitask demonstrations and the task for each demonstration is set by an unobserved latent context variable. The goal is to use the pretraining corpus to learn a low dimensional representation of the high dimensional (e.g., visual) observation space which can be transferred to a novel context for finetuning on a limited dataset of demonstrations. Among a variety of possible pretraining objectives, we argue that inverse dynamics modeling -- i.e., predicting an action given the observations appearing before and after it in the demonstration -- is well-suited to this setting. We provide empirical evidence of this claim through evaluations on a variety of simulated visuomotor manipulation problems. While previous work has attempted various theoretical explanations regarding the benefit of inverse dynamics modeling, we find that these arguments are insufficient to explain the empirical advantages often observed in our settings, and so we derive a novel analysis using a simple but general environment model.

Multi-marginal Schrödinger Bridges with Iterative Reference Refinement

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Respecting causality is all you need for training physics-informed neural networks

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. We provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier-Stokes equations in the turbulent regime. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

Towards Cross Domain Generalization of Hamiltonian Representation via Meta Learning

Recent advances in deep learning for physics have focused on discovering shared representations of target systems by incorporating physics priors or inductive biases into neural networks. While effective, these methods are limited to the system domain, where the type of system remains consistent and thus cannot ensure the adaptation to new, or unseen physical systems governed by different laws. For instance, a neural network trained on a mass-spring system cannot guarantee accurate predictions for the behavior of a two-body system or any other system with different physical laws. In this work, we take a significant leap forward by targeting cross domain generalization within the field of Hamiltonian dynamics. We model our system with a graph neural network and employ a meta learning algorithm to enable the model to gain experience over a distribution of tasks and make it adapt to new physics. Our approach aims to learn a unified Hamiltonian representation that is generalizable across multiple system domains, thereby overcoming the limitations of system-specific models. Our results demonstrate that the meta-trained model not only adapts effectively to new systems but also captures a generalized Hamiltonian representation that is consistent across different physical domains. Overall, through the use of meta learning, we offer a framework that achieves cross domain generalization, providing a step towards a unified model for understanding a wide array of dynamical systems via deep learning.

Limits and Powers of Koopman Learning

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

Dynamical Linear Bandits

In many real-world sequential decision-making problems, an action does not immediately reflect on the feedback and spreads its effects over a long time frame. For instance, in online advertising, investing in a platform produces an instantaneous increase of awareness, but the actual reward, i.e., a conversion, might occur far in the future. Furthermore, whether a conversion takes place depends on: how fast the awareness grows, its vanishing effects, and the synergy or interference with other advertising platforms. Previous work has investigated the Multi-Armed Bandit framework with the possibility of delayed and aggregated feedback, without a particular structure on how an action propagates in the future, disregarding possible dynamical effects. In this paper, we introduce a novel setting, the Dynamical Linear Bandits (DLB), an extension of the linear bandits characterized by a hidden state. When an action is performed, the learner observes a noisy reward whose mean is a linear function of the hidden state and of the action. Then, the hidden state evolves according to linear dynamics, affected by the performed action too. We start by introducing the setting, discussing the notion of optimal policy, and deriving an expected regret lower bound. Then, we provide an optimistic regret minimization algorithm, Dynamical Linear Upper Confidence Bound (DynLin-UCB), that suffers an expected regret of order mathcal{O} Big( d sqrt{T}{(1-rho)^{3/2}} Big), where rho is a measure of the stability of the system, and d is the dimension of the action vector. Finally, we conduct a numerical validation on a synthetic environment and on real-world data to show the effectiveness of DynLin-UCB in comparison with several baselines.

Persistent-Transient Duality: A Multi-mechanism Approach for Modeling Human-Object Interaction

Humans are highly adaptable, swiftly switching between different modes to progressively handle different tasks, situations and contexts. In Human-object interaction (HOI) activities, these modes can be attributed to two mechanisms: (1) the large-scale consistent plan for the whole activity and (2) the small-scale children interactive actions that start and end along the timeline. While neuroscience and cognitive science have confirmed this multi-mechanism nature of human behavior, machine modeling approaches for human motion are trailing behind. While attempted to use gradually morphing structures (e.g., graph attention networks) to model the dynamic HOI patterns, they miss the expeditious and discrete mode-switching nature of the human motion. To bridge that gap, this work proposes to model two concurrent mechanisms that jointly control human motion: the Persistent process that runs continually on the global scale, and the Transient sub-processes that operate intermittently on the local context of the human while interacting with objects. These two mechanisms form an interactive Persistent-Transient Duality that synergistically governs the activity sequences. We model this conceptual duality by a parent-child neural network of Persistent and Transient channels with a dedicated neural module for dynamic mechanism switching. The framework is trialed on HOI motion forecasting. On two rich datasets and a wide variety of settings, the model consistently delivers superior performances, proving its suitability for the challenge.

ODICE: Revealing the Mystery of Distribution Correction Estimation via Orthogonal-gradient Update

In this study, we investigate the DIstribution Correction Estimation (DICE) methods, an important line of work in offline reinforcement learning (RL) and imitation learning (IL). DICE-based methods impose state-action-level behavior constraint, which is an ideal choice for offline learning. However, they typically perform much worse than current state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods that solely use action-level behavior constraint. After revisiting DICE-based methods, we find there exist two gradient terms when learning the value function using true-gradient update: forward gradient (taken on the current state) and backward gradient (taken on the next state). Using forward gradient bears a large similarity to many offline RL methods, and thus can be regarded as applying action-level constraint. However, directly adding the backward gradient may degenerate or cancel out its effect if these two gradients have conflicting directions. To resolve this issue, we propose a simple yet effective modification that projects the backward gradient onto the normal plane of the forward gradient, resulting in an orthogonal-gradient update, a new learning rule for DICE-based methods. We conduct thorough theoretical analyses and find that the projected backward gradient brings state-level behavior regularization, which reveals the mystery of DICE-based methods: the value learning objective does try to impose state-action-level constraint, but needs to be used in a corrected way. Through toy examples and extensive experiments on complex offline RL and IL tasks, we demonstrate that DICE-based methods using orthogonal-gradient updates (O-DICE) achieve SOTA performance and great robustness.

Generalized Teacher Forcing for Learning Chaotic Dynamics

Chaotic dynamical systems (DS) are ubiquitous in nature and society. Often we are interested in reconstructing such systems from observed time series for prediction or mechanistic insight, where by reconstruction we mean learning geometrical and invariant temporal properties of the system in question (like attractors). However, training reconstruction algorithms like recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on such systems by gradient-descent based techniques faces severe challenges. This is mainly due to exploding gradients caused by the exponential divergence of trajectories in chaotic systems. Moreover, for (scientific) interpretability we wish to have as low dimensional reconstructions as possible, preferably in a model which is mathematically tractable. Here we report that a surprisingly simple modification of teacher forcing leads to provably strictly all-time bounded gradients in training on chaotic systems, and, when paired with a simple architectural rearrangement of a tractable RNN design, piecewise-linear RNNs (PLRNNs), allows for faithful reconstruction in spaces of at most the dimensionality of the observed system. We show on several DS that with these amendments we can reconstruct DS better than current SOTA algorithms, in much lower dimensions. Performance differences were particularly compelling on real world data with which most other methods severely struggled. This work thus led to a simple yet powerful DS reconstruction algorithm which is highly interpretable at the same time.

Deep Stochastic Kinematic Models for Probabilistic Motion Forecasting in Traffic

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Semi-Supervised Offline Reinforcement Learning with Action-Free Trajectories

Natural agents can effectively learn from multiple data sources that differ in size, quality, and types of measurements. We study this heterogeneity in the context of offline reinforcement learning (RL) by introducing a new, practically motivated semi-supervised setting. Here, an agent has access to two sets of trajectories: labelled trajectories containing state, action and reward triplets at every timestep, along with unlabelled trajectories that contain only state and reward information. For this setting, we develop and study a simple meta-algorithmic pipeline that learns an inverse dynamics model on the labelled data to obtain proxy-labels for the unlabelled data, followed by the use of any offline RL algorithm on the true and proxy-labelled trajectories. Empirically, we find this simple pipeline to be highly successful -- on several D4RL benchmarks~fu2020d4rl, certain offline RL algorithms can match the performance of variants trained on a fully labelled dataset even when we label only 10\% of trajectories which are highly suboptimal. To strengthen our understanding, we perform a large-scale controlled empirical study investigating the interplay of data-centric properties of the labelled and unlabelled datasets, with algorithmic design choices (e.g., choice of inverse dynamics, offline RL algorithm) to identify general trends and best practices for training RL agents on semi-supervised offline datasets.

Case Studies for Computing Density of Reachable States for Safe Autonomous Motion Planning

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

Toward smart composites: small-scale, untethered prediction and control for soft sensor/actuator systems

We present formulation and open-source tools to achieve in-material model predictive control of sensor/actuator systems using learned forward kinematics and on-device computation. Microcontroller units (MCUs) that compute the prediction and control task while colocated with the sensors and actuators enable in-material untethered behaviors. In this approach, small parameter size neural network models learn forward kinematics offline. Our open-source compiler, nn4mc, generates code to offload these predictions onto MCUs. A Newton-Raphson solver then computes the control input in real time. We first benchmark this nonlinear control approach against a PID controller on a mass-spring-damper simulation. We then study experimental results on two experimental rigs with different sensing, actuation and computational hardware: a tendon-based platform with embedded LightLace sensors and a HASEL-based platform with magnetic sensors. Experimental results indicate effective high-bandwidth tracking of reference paths (greater than or equal to 120 Hz) with a small memory footprint (less than or equal to 6.4% of flash memory). The measured path following error does not exceed 2mm in the tendon-based platform. The simulated path following error does not exceed 1mm in the HASEL-based platform. The mean power consumption of this approach in an ARM Cortex-M4f device is 45.4 mW. This control approach is also compatible with Tensorflow Lite models and equivalent on-device code. In-material intelligence enables a new class of composites that infuse autonomy into structures and systems with refined artificial proprioception.

Lagrangian PINNs: A causality-conforming solution to failure modes of physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) leverage neural-networks to find the solutions of partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems with initial conditions and boundary conditions as soft constraints. These soft constraints are often considered to be the sources of the complexity in the training phase of PINNs. Here, we demonstrate that the challenge of training (i) persists even when the boundary conditions are strictly enforced, and (ii) is closely related to the Kolmogorov n-width associated with problems demonstrating transport, convection, traveling waves, or moving fronts. Given this realization, we describe the mechanism underlying the training schemes such as those used in eXtended PINNs (XPINN), curriculum regularization, and sequence-to-sequence learning. For an important category of PDEs, i.e., governed by non-linear convection-diffusion equation, we propose reformulating PINNs on a Lagrangian frame of reference, i.e., LPINNs, as a PDE-informed solution. A parallel architecture with two branches is proposed. One branch solves for the state variables on the characteristics, and the second branch solves for the low-dimensional characteristics curves. The proposed architecture conforms to the causality innate to the convection, and leverages the direction of travel of the information in the domain. Finally, we demonstrate that the loss landscapes of LPINNs are less sensitive to the so-called "complexity" of the problems, compared to those in the traditional PINNs in the Eulerian framework.

Video PreTraining (VPT): Learning to Act by Watching Unlabeled Online Videos

Pretraining on noisy, internet-scale datasets has been heavily studied as a technique for training models with broad, general capabilities for text, images, and other modalities. However, for many sequential decision domains such as robotics, video games, and computer use, publicly available data does not contain the labels required to train behavioral priors in the same way. We extend the internet-scale pretraining paradigm to sequential decision domains through semi-supervised imitation learning wherein agents learn to act by watching online unlabeled videos. Specifically, we show that with a small amount of labeled data we can train an inverse dynamics model accurate enough to label a huge unlabeled source of online data -- here, online videos of people playing Minecraft -- from which we can then train a general behavioral prior. Despite using the native human interface (mouse and keyboard at 20Hz), we show that this behavioral prior has nontrivial zero-shot capabilities and that it can be fine-tuned, with both imitation learning and reinforcement learning, to hard-exploration tasks that are impossible to learn from scratch via reinforcement learning. For many tasks our models exhibit human-level performance, and we are the first to report computer agents that can craft diamond tools, which can take proficient humans upwards of 20 minutes (24,000 environment actions) of gameplay to accomplish.

Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Learning Neural Constitutive Laws From Motion Observations for Generalizable PDE Dynamics

We propose a hybrid neural network (NN) and PDE approach for learning generalizable PDE dynamics from motion observations. Many NN approaches learn an end-to-end model that implicitly models both the governing PDE and constitutive models (or material models). Without explicit PDE knowledge, these approaches cannot guarantee physical correctness and have limited generalizability. We argue that the governing PDEs are often well-known and should be explicitly enforced rather than learned. Instead, constitutive models are particularly suitable for learning due to their data-fitting nature. To this end, we introduce a new framework termed "Neural Constitutive Laws" (NCLaw), which utilizes a network architecture that strictly guarantees standard constitutive priors, including rotation equivariance and undeformed state equilibrium. We embed this network inside a differentiable simulation and train the model by minimizing a loss function based on the difference between the simulation and the motion observation. We validate NCLaw on various large-deformation dynamical systems, ranging from solids to fluids. After training on a single motion trajectory, our method generalizes to new geometries, initial/boundary conditions, temporal ranges, and even multi-physics systems. On these extremely out-of-distribution generalization tasks, NCLaw is orders-of-magnitude more accurate than previous NN approaches. Real-world experiments demonstrate our method's ability to learn constitutive laws from videos.

Towards Principled Representation Learning from Videos for Reinforcement Learning

We study pre-training representations for decision-making using video data, which is abundantly available for tasks such as game agents and software testing. Even though significant empirical advances have been made on this problem, a theoretical understanding remains absent. We initiate the theoretical investigation into principled approaches for representation learning and focus on learning the latent state representations of the underlying MDP using video data. We study two types of settings: one where there is iid noise in the observation, and a more challenging setting where there is also the presence of exogenous noise, which is non-iid noise that is temporally correlated, such as the motion of people or cars in the background. We study three commonly used approaches: autoencoding, temporal contrastive learning, and forward modeling. We prove upper bounds for temporal contrastive learning and forward modeling in the presence of only iid noise. We show that these approaches can learn the latent state and use it to do efficient downstream RL with polynomial sample complexity. When exogenous noise is also present, we establish a lower bound result showing that the sample complexity of learning from video data can be exponentially worse than learning from action-labeled trajectory data. This partially explains why reinforcement learning with video pre-training is hard. We evaluate these representational learning methods in two visual domains, yielding results that are consistent with our theoretical findings.

DynaMo: In-Domain Dynamics Pretraining for Visuo-Motor Control

Imitation learning has proven to be a powerful tool for training complex visuomotor policies. However, current methods often require hundreds to thousands of expert demonstrations to handle high-dimensional visual observations. A key reason for this poor data efficiency is that visual representations are predominantly either pretrained on out-of-domain data or trained directly through a behavior cloning objective. In this work, we present DynaMo, a new in-domain, self-supervised method for learning visual representations. Given a set of expert demonstrations, we jointly learn a latent inverse dynamics model and a forward dynamics model over a sequence of image embeddings, predicting the next frame in latent space, without augmentations, contrastive sampling, or access to ground truth actions. Importantly, DynaMo does not require any out-of-domain data such as Internet datasets or cross-embodied datasets. On a suite of six simulated and real environments, we show that representations learned with DynaMo significantly improve downstream imitation learning performance over prior self-supervised learning objectives, and pretrained representations. Gains from using DynaMo hold across policy classes such as Behavior Transformer, Diffusion Policy, MLP, and nearest neighbors. Finally, we ablate over key components of DynaMo and measure its impact on downstream policy performance. Robot videos are best viewed at https://dynamo-ssl.github.io

Policy Evaluation and Temporal-Difference Learning in Continuous Time and Space: A Martingale Approach

We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We present two methods to use the martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms. The first one minimizes a "martingale loss function", whose solution is proved to be the best approximation of the true value function in the mean--square sense. This method interprets the classical gradient Monte-Carlo algorithm. The second method is based on a system of equations called the "martingale orthogonality conditions" with test functions. Solving these equations in different ways recovers various classical TD algorithms, such as TD(lambda), LSTD, and GTD. Different choices of test functions determine in what sense the resulting solutions approximate the true value function. Moreover, we prove that any convergent time-discretized algorithm converges to its continuous-time counterpart as the mesh size goes to zero, and we provide the convergence rate. We demonstrate the theoretical results and corresponding algorithms with numerical experiments and applications.

Learning Flexible Body Collision Dynamics with Hierarchical Contact Mesh Transformer

Recently, many mesh-based graph neural network (GNN) models have been proposed for modeling complex high-dimensional physical systems. Remarkable achievements have been made in significantly reducing the solving time compared to traditional numerical solvers. These methods are typically designed to i) reduce the computational cost in solving physical dynamics and/or ii) propose techniques to enhance the solution accuracy in fluid and rigid body dynamics. However, it remains under-explored whether they are effective in addressing the challenges of flexible body dynamics, where instantaneous collisions occur within a very short timeframe. In this paper, we present Hierarchical Contact Mesh Transformer (HCMT), which uses hierarchical mesh structures and can learn long-range dependencies (occurred by collisions) among spatially distant positions of a body -- two close positions in a higher-level mesh correspond to two distant positions in a lower-level mesh. HCMT enables long-range interactions, and the hierarchical mesh structure quickly propagates collision effects to faraway positions. To this end, it consists of a contact mesh Transformer and a hierarchical mesh Transformer (CMT and HMT, respectively). Lastly, we propose a flexible body dynamics dataset, consisting of trajectories that reflect experimental settings frequently used in the display industry for product designs. We also compare the performance of several baselines using well-known benchmark datasets. Our results show that HCMT provides significant performance improvements over existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/yuyudeep/hcmt.

On gauge freedom, conservativity and intrinsic dimensionality estimation in diffusion models

Diffusion models are generative models that have recently demonstrated impressive performances in terms of sampling quality and density estimation in high dimensions. They rely on a forward continuous diffusion process and a backward continuous denoising process, which can be described by a time-dependent vector field and is used as a generative model. In the original formulation of the diffusion model, this vector field is assumed to be the score function (i.e. it is the gradient of the log-probability at a given time in the diffusion process). Curiously, on the practical side, most studies on diffusion models implement this vector field as a neural network function and do not constrain it be the gradient of some energy function (that is, most studies do not constrain the vector field to be conservative). Even though some studies investigated empirically whether such a constraint will lead to a performance gain, they lead to contradicting results and failed to provide analytical results. Here, we provide three analytical results regarding the extent of the modeling freedom of this vector field. {Firstly, we propose a novel decomposition of vector fields into a conservative component and an orthogonal component which satisfies a given (gauge) freedom. Secondly, from this orthogonal decomposition, we show that exact density estimation and exact sampling is achieved when the conservative component is exactly equals to the true score and therefore conservativity is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain exact density estimation and exact sampling. Finally, we show that when it comes to inferring local information of the data manifold, constraining the vector field to be conservative is desirable.

The Edge-of-Reach Problem in Offline Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning aims to train agents from pre-collected datasets. However, this comes with the added challenge of estimating the value of behaviors not covered in the dataset. Model-based methods offer a potential solution by training an approximate dynamics model, which then allows collection of additional synthetic data via rollouts in this model. The prevailing theory treats this approach as online RL in an approximate dynamics model, and any remaining performance gap is therefore understood as being due to dynamics model errors. In this paper, we analyze this assumption and investigate how popular algorithms perform as the learned dynamics model is improved. In contrast to both intuition and theory, if the learned dynamics model is replaced by the true error-free dynamics, existing model-based methods completely fail. This reveals a key oversight: The theoretical foundations assume sampling of full horizon rollouts in the learned dynamics model; however, in practice, the number of model-rollout steps is aggressively reduced to prevent accumulating errors. We show that this truncation of rollouts results in a set of edge-of-reach states at which we are effectively ``bootstrapping from the void.'' This triggers pathological value overestimation and complete performance collapse. We term this the edge-of-reach problem. Based on this new insight, we fill important gaps in existing theory, and reveal how prior model-based methods are primarily addressing the edge-of-reach problem, rather than model-inaccuracy as claimed. Finally, we propose Reach-Aware Value Learning (RAVL), a simple and robust method that directly addresses the edge-of-reach problem and hence - unlike existing methods - does not fail as the dynamics model is improved. Code open-sourced at: github.com/anyasims/edge-of-reach.

Chaos as an interpretable benchmark for forecasting and data-driven modelling

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Understanding the differences in Foundation Models: Attention, State Space Models, and Recurrent Neural Networks

Softmax attention is the principle backbone of foundation models for various artificial intelligence applications, yet its quadratic complexity in sequence length can limit its inference throughput in long-context settings. To address this challenge, alternative architectures such as linear attention, State Space Models (SSMs), and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been considered as more efficient alternatives. While connections between these approaches exist, such models are commonly developed in isolation and there is a lack of theoretical understanding of the shared principles underpinning these architectures and their subtle differences, greatly influencing performance and scalability. In this paper, we introduce the Dynamical Systems Framework (DSF), which allows a principled investigation of all these architectures in a common representation. Our framework facilitates rigorous comparisons, providing new insights on the distinctive characteristics of each model class. For instance, we compare linear attention and selective SSMs, detailing their differences and conditions under which both are equivalent. We also provide principled comparisons between softmax attention and other model classes, discussing the theoretical conditions under which softmax attention can be approximated. Additionally, we substantiate these new insights with empirical validations and mathematical arguments. This shows the DSF's potential to guide the systematic development of future more efficient and scalable foundation models.

Exact Diffusion Inversion via Bi-directional Integration Approximation

Recently, various methods have been proposed to address the inconsistency issue of DDIM inversion to enable image editing, such as EDICT [36] and Null-text inversion [22]. However, the above methods introduce considerable computational overhead. In this paper, we propose a new technique, named bi-directional integration approximation (BDIA), to perform exact diffusion inversion with neglible computational overhead. Suppose we would like to estimate the next diffusion state z_{i-1} at timestep t_i with the historical information (i,z_i) and (i+1,z_{i+1}). We first obtain the estimated Gaussian noise boldsymbol{epsilon}(z_i,i), and then apply the DDIM update procedure twice for approximating the ODE integration over the next time-slot [t_i, t_{i-1}] in the forward manner and the previous time-slot [t_i, t_{t+1}] in the backward manner. The DDIM step for the previous time-slot is used to refine the integration approximation made earlier when computing z_i. A nice property of BDIA-DDIM is that the update expression for z_{i-1} is a linear combination of (z_{i+1}, z_i, boldsymbol{epsilon}(z_i,i)). This allows for exact backward computation of z_{i+1} given (z_i, z_{i-1}), thus leading to exact diffusion inversion. It is demonstrated with experiments that (round-trip) BDIA-DDIM is particularly effective for image editing. Our experiments further show that BDIA-DDIM produces markedly better image sampling qualities than DDIM for text-to-image generation. BDIA can also be applied to improve the performance of other ODE solvers in addition to DDIM. In our work, it is found that applying BDIA to the EDM sampling procedure produces consistently better performance over four pre-trained models.

Closing the ODE-SDE gap in score-based diffusion models through the Fokker-Planck equation

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as one of the most promising frameworks for deep generative modelling, due to their state-of-the art performance in many generation tasks while relying on mathematical foundations such as stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Empirically, it has been reported that ODE based samples are inferior to SDE based samples. In this paper we rigorously describe the range of dynamics and approximations that arise when training score-based diffusion models, including the true SDE dynamics, the neural approximations, the various approximate particle dynamics that result, as well as their associated Fokker--Planck equations and the neural network approximations of these Fokker--Planck equations. We systematically analyse the difference between the ODE and SDE dynamics of score-based diffusion models, and link it to an associated Fokker--Planck equation. We derive a theoretical upper bound on the Wasserstein 2-distance between the ODE- and SDE-induced distributions in terms of a Fokker--Planck residual. We also show numerically that conventional score-based diffusion models can exhibit significant differences between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions which we demonstrate using explicit comparisons. Moreover, we show numerically that reducing the Fokker--Planck residual by adding it as an additional regularisation term leads to closing the gap between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions. Our experiments suggest that this regularisation can improve the distribution generated by the ODE, however that this can come at the cost of degraded SDE sample quality.

SINDy-RL: Interpretable and Efficient Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has shown significant promise for uncovering sophisticated control policies that interact in environments with complicated dynamics, such as stabilizing the magnetohydrodynamics of a tokamak fusion reactor or minimizing the drag force exerted on an object in a fluid flow. However, these algorithms require an abundance of training examples and may become prohibitively expensive for many applications. In addition, the reliance on deep neural networks often results in an uninterpretable, black-box policy that may be too computationally expensive to use with certain embedded systems. Recent advances in sparse dictionary learning, such as the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy), have shown promise for creating efficient and interpretable data-driven models in the low-data regime. In this work we introduce SINDy-RL, a unifying framework for combining SINDy and DRL to create efficient, interpretable, and trustworthy representations of the dynamics model, reward function, and control policy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approaches on benchmark control environments and challenging fluids problems. SINDy-RL achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art DRL algorithms using significantly fewer interactions in the environment and results in an interpretable control policy orders of magnitude smaller than a deep neural network policy.

ASAP: Aligning Simulation and Real-World Physics for Learning Agile Humanoid Whole-Body Skills

Humanoid robots hold the potential for unparalleled versatility in performing human-like, whole-body skills. However, achieving agile and coordinated whole-body motions remains a significant challenge due to the dynamics mismatch between simulation and the real world. Existing approaches, such as system identification (SysID) and domain randomization (DR) methods, often rely on labor-intensive parameter tuning or result in overly conservative policies that sacrifice agility. In this paper, we present ASAP (Aligning Simulation and Real-World Physics), a two-stage framework designed to tackle the dynamics mismatch and enable agile humanoid whole-body skills. In the first stage, we pre-train motion tracking policies in simulation using retargeted human motion data. In the second stage, we deploy the policies in the real world and collect real-world data to train a delta (residual) action model that compensates for the dynamics mismatch. Then, ASAP fine-tunes pre-trained policies with the delta action model integrated into the simulator to align effectively with real-world dynamics. We evaluate ASAP across three transfer scenarios: IsaacGym to IsaacSim, IsaacGym to Genesis, and IsaacGym to the real-world Unitree G1 humanoid robot. Our approach significantly improves agility and whole-body coordination across various dynamic motions, reducing tracking error compared to SysID, DR, and delta dynamics learning baselines. ASAP enables highly agile motions that were previously difficult to achieve, demonstrating the potential of delta action learning in bridging simulation and real-world dynamics. These results suggest a promising sim-to-real direction for developing more expressive and agile humanoids.

You Only Teach Once: Learn One-Shot Bimanual Robotic Manipulation from Video Demonstrations

Bimanual robotic manipulation is a long-standing challenge of embodied intelligence due to its characteristics of dual-arm spatial-temporal coordination and high-dimensional action spaces. Previous studies rely on pre-defined action taxonomies or direct teleoperation to alleviate or circumvent these issues, often making them lack simplicity, versatility and scalability. Differently, we believe that the most effective and efficient way for teaching bimanual manipulation is learning from human demonstrated videos, where rich features such as spatial-temporal positions, dynamic postures, interaction states and dexterous transitions are available almost for free. In this work, we propose the YOTO (You Only Teach Once), which can extract and then inject patterns of bimanual actions from as few as a single binocular observation of hand movements, and teach dual robot arms various complex tasks. Furthermore, based on keyframes-based motion trajectories, we devise a subtle solution for rapidly generating training demonstrations with diverse variations of manipulated objects and their locations. These data can then be used to learn a customized bimanual diffusion policy (BiDP) across diverse scenes. In experiments, YOTO achieves impressive performance in mimicking 5 intricate long-horizon bimanual tasks, possesses strong generalization under different visual and spatial conditions, and outperforms existing visuomotor imitation learning methods in accuracy and efficiency. Our project link is https://hnuzhy.github.io/projects/YOTO.

PFGM++: Unlocking the Potential of Physics-Inspired Generative Models

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Geometric Trajectory Diffusion Models

Generative models have shown great promise in generating 3D geometric systems, which is a fundamental problem in many natural science domains such as molecule and protein design. However, existing approaches only operate on static structures, neglecting the fact that physical systems are always dynamic in nature. In this work, we propose geometric trajectory diffusion models (GeoTDM), the first diffusion model for modeling the temporal distribution of 3D geometric trajectories. Modeling such distribution is challenging as it requires capturing both the complex spatial interactions with physical symmetries and temporal correspondence encapsulated in the dynamics. We theoretically justify that diffusion models with equivariant temporal kernels can lead to density with desired symmetry, and develop a novel transition kernel leveraging SE(3)-equivariant spatial convolution and temporal attention. Furthermore, to induce an expressive trajectory distribution for conditional generation, we introduce a generalized learnable geometric prior into the forward diffusion process to enhance temporal conditioning. We conduct extensive experiments on both unconditional and conditional generation in various scenarios, including physical simulation, molecular dynamics, and pedestrian motion. Empirical results on a wide suite of metrics demonstrate that GeoTDM can generate realistic geometric trajectories with significantly higher quality.

Variational Inference for SDEs Driven by Fractional Noise

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

Generative Modeling of Regular and Irregular Time Series Data via Koopman VAEs

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

Policy-Guided Diffusion

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Dichotomy of Control: Separating What You Can Control from What You Cannot

Future- or return-conditioned supervised learning is an emerging paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the future outcome (i.e., return) associated with an observed action sequence is used as input to a policy trained to imitate those same actions. While return-conditioning is at the heart of popular algorithms such as decision transformer (DT), these methods tend to perform poorly in highly stochastic environments, where an occasional high return can arise from randomness in the environment rather than the actions themselves. Such situations can lead to a learned policy that is inconsistent with its conditioning inputs; i.e., using the policy to act in the environment, when conditioning on a specific desired return, leads to a distribution of real returns that is wildly different than desired. In this work, we propose the dichotomy of control (DoC), a future-conditioned supervised learning framework that separates mechanisms within a policy's control (actions) from those beyond a policy's control (environment stochasticity). We achieve this separation by conditioning the policy on a latent variable representation of the future, and designing a mutual information constraint that removes any information from the latent variable associated with randomness in the environment. Theoretically, we show that DoC yields policies that are consistent with their conditioning inputs, ensuring that conditioning a learned policy on a desired high-return future outcome will correctly induce high-return behavior. Empirically, we show that DoC is able to achieve significantly better performance than DT on environments that have highly stochastic rewards and transition

Locality Sensitive Sparse Encoding for Learning World Models Online

Acquiring an accurate world model online for model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is challenging due to data nonstationarity, which typically causes catastrophic forgetting for neural networks (NNs). From the online learning perspective, a Follow-The-Leader (FTL) world model is desirable, which optimally fits all previous experiences at each round. Unfortunately, NN-based models need re-training on all accumulated data at every interaction step to achieve FTL, which is computationally expensive for lifelong agents. In this paper, we revisit models that can achieve FTL with incremental updates. Specifically, our world model is a linear regression model supported by nonlinear random features. The linear part ensures efficient FTL update while the nonlinear random feature empowers the fitting of complex environments. To best trade off model capacity and computation efficiency, we introduce a locality sensitive sparse encoding, which allows us to conduct efficient sparse updates even with very high dimensional nonlinear features. We validate the representation power of our encoding and verify that it allows efficient online learning under data covariate shift. We also show, in the Dyna MBRL setting, that our world models learned online using a single pass of trajectory data either surpass or match the performance of deep world models trained with replay and other continual learning methods.

How to Train Your HiPPO: State Space Models with Generalized Orthogonal Basis Projections

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Effectively Modeling Time Series with Simple Discrete State Spaces

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Towards Robust and Adaptive Motion Forecasting: A Causal Representation Perspective

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Policy Regularization with Dataset Constraint for Offline Reinforcement Learning

We consider the problem of learning the best possible policy from a fixed dataset, known as offline Reinforcement Learning (RL). A common taxonomy of existing offline RL works is policy regularization, which typically constrains the learned policy by distribution or support of the behavior policy. However, distribution and support constraints are overly conservative since they both force the policy to choose similar actions as the behavior policy when considering particular states. It will limit the learned policy's performance, especially when the behavior policy is sub-optimal. In this paper, we find that regularizing the policy towards the nearest state-action pair can be more effective and thus propose Policy Regularization with Dataset Constraint (PRDC). When updating the policy in a given state, PRDC searches the entire dataset for the nearest state-action sample and then restricts the policy with the action of this sample. Unlike previous works, PRDC can guide the policy with proper behaviors from the dataset, allowing it to choose actions that do not appear in the dataset along with the given state. It is a softer constraint but still keeps enough conservatism from out-of-distribution actions. Empirical evidence and theoretical analysis show that PRDC can alleviate offline RL's fundamentally challenging value overestimation issue with a bounded performance gap. Moreover, on a set of locomotion and navigation tasks, PRDC achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/LAMDA-RL/PRDC

Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Time-Stepping in the Chaotic Gravitational Three-Body Problem

Many problems in astrophysics cover multiple orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales. While simulating systems that experience rapid changes in these conditions, it is essential to adapt the (time-) step size to capture the behavior of the system during those rapid changes and use a less accurate time step at other, less demanding, moments. We encounter three problems with traditional methods. Firstly, making such changes requires expert knowledge of the astrophysics as well as of the details of the numerical implementation. Secondly, some parameters that determine the time-step size are fixed throughout the simulation, which means that they do not adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the problem. Lastly, we would like the choice of time-step size to balance accuracy and computation effort. We address these challenges with Reinforcement Learning by training it to select the time-step size dynamically. We use the integration of a system of three equal-mass bodies that move due to their mutual gravity as an example of its application. With our method, the selected integration parameter adapts to the specific requirements of the problem, both in terms of computation time and accuracy while eliminating the expert knowledge needed to set up these simulations. Our method produces results competitive to existing methods and improve the results found with the most commonly-used values of time-step parameter. This method can be applied to other integrators without further retraining. We show that this extrapolation works for variable time-step integrators but does not perform to the desired accuracy for fixed time-step integrators.

AdjointDPM: Adjoint Sensitivity Method for Gradient Backpropagation of Diffusion Probabilistic Models

Existing customization methods require access to multiple reference examples to align pre-trained diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) with user-provided concepts. This paper aims to address the challenge of DPM customization when the only available supervision is a differentiable metric defined on the generated contents. Since the sampling procedure of DPMs involves recursive calls to the denoising UNet, na\"ive gradient backpropagation requires storing the intermediate states of all iterations, resulting in extremely high memory consumption. To overcome this issue, we propose a novel method AdjointDPM, which first generates new samples from diffusion models by solving the corresponding probability-flow ODEs. It then uses the adjoint sensitivity method to backpropagate the gradients of the loss to the models' parameters (including conditioning signals, network weights, and initial noises) by solving another augmented ODE. To reduce numerical errors in both the forward generation and gradient backpropagation processes, we further reparameterize the probability-flow ODE and augmented ODE as simple non-stiff ODEs using exponential integration. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of AdjointDPM on three interesting tasks: converting visual effects into identification text embeddings, finetuning DPMs for specific types of stylization, and optimizing initial noise to generate adversarial samples for security auditing.

Dual RL: Unification and New Methods for Reinforcement and Imitation Learning

The goal of reinforcement learning (RL) is to find a policy that maximizes the expected cumulative return. It has been shown that this objective can be represented as an optimization problem of state-action visitation distribution under linear constraints. The dual problem of this formulation, which we refer to as dual RL, is unconstrained and easier to optimize. In this work, we first cast several state-of-the-art offline RL and offline imitation learning (IL) algorithms as instances of dual RL approaches with shared structures. Such unification allows us to identify the root cause of the shortcomings of prior methods. For offline IL, our analysis shows that prior methods are based on a restrictive coverage assumption that greatly limits their performance in practice. To fix this limitation, we propose a new discriminator-free method ReCOIL that learns to imitate from arbitrary off-policy data to obtain near-expert performance. For offline RL, our analysis frames a recent offline RL method XQL in the dual framework, and we further propose a new method f-DVL that provides alternative choices to the Gumbel regression loss that fixes the known training instability issue of XQL. The performance improvements by both of our proposed methods, ReCOIL and f-DVL, in IL and RL are validated on an extensive suite of simulated robot locomotion and manipulation tasks. Project code and details can be found at this https://hari-sikchi.github.io/dual-rl.

Learning fast, accurate, and stable closures of a kinetic theory of an active fluid

Important classes of active matter systems can be modeled using kinetic theories. However, kinetic theories can be high dimensional and challenging to simulate. Reduced-order representations based on tracking only low-order moments of the kinetic model serve as an efficient alternative, but typically require closure assumptions to model unrepresented higher-order moments. In this study, we present a learning framework based on neural networks that exploit rotational symmetries in the closure terms to learn accurate closure models directly from kinetic simulations. The data-driven closures demonstrate excellent a-priori predictions comparable to the state-of-the-art Bingham closure. We provide a systematic comparison between different neural network architectures and demonstrate that nonlocal effects can be safely ignored to model the closure terms. We develop an active learning strategy that enables accurate prediction of the closure terms across the entire parameter space using a single neural network without the need for retraining. We also propose a data-efficient training procedure based on time-stepping constraints and a differentiable pseudo-spectral solver, which enables the learning of stable closures suitable for a-posteriori inference. The coarse-grained simulations equipped with data-driven closure models faithfully reproduce the mean velocity statistics, scalar order parameters, and velocity power spectra observed in simulations of the kinetic theory. Our differentiable framework also facilitates the estimation of parameters in coarse-grained descriptions conditioned on data.

Is Model Ensemble Necessary? Model-based RL via a Single Model with Lipschitz Regularized Value Function

Probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is widely used in existing model-based reinforcement learning methods as it outperforms a single dynamics model in both asymptotic performance and sample efficiency. In this paper, we provide both practical and theoretical insights on the empirical success of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble through the lens of Lipschitz continuity. We find that, for a value function, the stronger the Lipschitz condition is, the smaller the gap between the true dynamics- and learned dynamics-induced Bellman operators is, thus enabling the converged value function to be closer to the optimal value function. Hence, we hypothesize that the key functionality of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is to regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value function using generated samples. To test this hypothesis, we devise two practical robust training mechanisms through computing the adversarial noise and regularizing the value network's spectral norm to directly regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value functions. Empirical results show that combined with our mechanisms, model-based RL algorithms with a single dynamics model outperform those with an ensemble of probabilistic dynamics models. These findings not only support the theoretical insight, but also provide a practical solution for developing computationally efficient model-based RL algorithms.

Revisiting Design Choices in Offline Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning enables agents to leverage large pre-collected datasets of environment transitions to learn control policies, circumventing the need for potentially expensive or unsafe online data collection. Significant progress has been made recently in offline model-based reinforcement learning, approaches which leverage a learned dynamics model. This typically involves constructing a probabilistic model, and using the model uncertainty to penalize rewards where there is insufficient data, solving for a pessimistic MDP that lower bounds the true MDP. Existing methods, however, exhibit a breakdown between theory and practice, whereby pessimistic return ought to be bounded by the total variation distance of the model from the true dynamics, but is instead implemented through a penalty based on estimated model uncertainty. This has spawned a variety of uncertainty heuristics, with little to no comparison between differing approaches. In this paper, we compare these heuristics, and design novel protocols to investigate their interaction with other hyperparameters, such as the number of models, or imaginary rollout horizon. Using these insights, we show that selecting these key hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization produces superior configurations that are vastly different to those currently used in existing hand-tuned state-of-the-art methods, and result in drastically stronger performance.

Emergence of Hidden Capabilities: Exploring Learning Dynamics in Concept Space

Modern generative models demonstrate impressive capabilities, likely stemming from an ability to identify and manipulate abstract concepts underlying their training data. However, fundamental questions remain: what determines the concepts a model learns, the order in which it learns them, and its ability to manipulate those concepts? To address these questions, we propose analyzing a model's learning dynamics via a framework we call the concept space, where each axis represents an independent concept underlying the data generating process. By characterizing learning dynamics in this space, we identify how the speed at which a concept is learned, and hence the order of concept learning, is controlled by properties of the data we term concept signal. Further, we observe moments of sudden turns in the direction of a model's learning dynamics in concept space. Surprisingly, these points precisely correspond to the emergence of hidden capabilities, i.e., where latent interventions show the model possesses the capability to manipulate a concept, but these capabilities cannot yet be elicited via naive input prompting. While our results focus on synthetically defined toy datasets, we hypothesize a general claim on emergence of hidden capabilities may hold: generative models possess latent capabilities that emerge suddenly and consistently during training, though a model might not exhibit these capabilities under naive input prompting.

HPNet: Dynamic Trajectory Forecasting with Historical Prediction Attention

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.