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Mar 14

Constrained Decoding for Cross-lingual Label Projection

Zero-shot cross-lingual transfer utilizing multilingual LLMs has become a popular learning paradigm for low-resource languages with no labeled training data. However, for NLP tasks that involve fine-grained predictions on words and phrases, the performance of zero-shot cross-lingual transfer learning lags far behind supervised fine-tuning methods. Therefore, it is common to exploit translation and label projection to further improve the performance by (1) translating training data that is available in a high-resource language (e.g., English) together with the gold labels into low-resource languages, and/or (2) translating test data in low-resource languages to a high-source language to run inference on, then projecting the predicted span-level labels back onto the original test data. However, state-of-the-art marker-based label projection methods suffer from translation quality degradation due to the extra label markers injected in the input to the translation model. In this work, we explore a new direction that leverages constrained decoding for label projection to overcome the aforementioned issues. Our new method not only can preserve the quality of translated texts but also has the versatility of being applicable to both translating training and translating test data strategies. This versatility is crucial as our experiments reveal that translating test data can lead to a considerable boost in performance compared to translating only training data. We evaluate on two cross-lingual transfer tasks, namely Named Entity Recognition and Event Argument Extraction, spanning 20 languages. The results demonstrate that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art marker-based method by a large margin and also shows better performance than other label projection methods that rely on external word alignment.

Towards Distribution-Agnostic Generalized Category Discovery

Data imbalance and open-ended distribution are two intrinsic characteristics of the real visual world. Though encouraging progress has been made in tackling each challenge separately, few works dedicated to combining them towards real-world scenarios. While several previous works have focused on classifying close-set samples and detecting open-set samples during testing, it's still essential to be able to classify unknown subjects as human beings. In this paper, we formally define a more realistic task as distribution-agnostic generalized category discovery (DA-GCD): generating fine-grained predictions for both close- and open-set classes in a long-tailed open-world setting. To tackle the challenging problem, we propose a Self-Balanced Co-Advice contrastive framework (BaCon), which consists of a contrastive-learning branch and a pseudo-labeling branch, working collaboratively to provide interactive supervision to resolve the DA-GCD task. In particular, the contrastive-learning branch provides reliable distribution estimation to regularize the predictions of the pseudo-labeling branch, which in turn guides contrastive learning through self-balanced knowledge transfer and a proposed novel contrastive loss. We compare BaCon with state-of-the-art methods from two closely related fields: imbalanced semi-supervised learning and generalized category discovery. The effectiveness of BaCon is demonstrated with superior performance over all baselines and comprehensive analysis across various datasets. Our code is publicly available.

Lotus: Diffusion-based Visual Foundation Model for High-quality Dense Prediction

Leveraging the visual priors of pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models offers a promising solution to enhance zero-shot generalization in dense prediction tasks. However, existing methods often uncritically use the original diffusion formulation, which may not be optimal due to the fundamental differences between dense prediction and image generation. In this paper, we provide a systemic analysis of the diffusion formulation for the dense prediction, focusing on both quality and efficiency. And we find that the original parameterization type for image generation, which learns to predict noise, is harmful for dense prediction; the multi-step noising/denoising diffusion process is also unnecessary and challenging to optimize. Based on these insights, we introduce Lotus, a diffusion-based visual foundation model with a simple yet effective adaptation protocol for dense prediction. Specifically, Lotus is trained to directly predict annotations instead of noise, thereby avoiding harmful variance. We also reformulate the diffusion process into a single-step procedure, simplifying optimization and significantly boosting inference speed. Additionally, we introduce a novel tuning strategy called detail preserver, which achieves more accurate and fine-grained predictions. Without scaling up the training data or model capacity, Lotus achieves SoTA performance in zero-shot depth and normal estimation across various datasets. It also significantly enhances efficiency, being hundreds of times faster than most existing diffusion-based methods.

Many Ways to Be Lonely: Fine-Grained Characterization of Loneliness and Its Potential Changes in COVID-19

Loneliness has been associated with negative outcomes for physical and mental health. Understanding how people express and cope with various forms of loneliness is critical for early screening and targeted interventions to reduce loneliness, particularly among vulnerable groups such as young adults. To examine how different forms of loneliness and coping strategies manifest in loneliness self-disclosure, we built a dataset, FIG-Loneliness (FIne-Grained Loneliness) by using Reddit posts in two young adult-focused forums and two loneliness related forums consisting of a diverse age group. We provided annotations by trained human annotators for binary and fine-grained loneliness classifications of the posts. Trained on FIG-Loneliness, two BERT-based models were used to understand loneliness forms and authors' coping strategies in these forums. Our binary loneliness classification achieved an accuracy above 97%, and fine-grained loneliness category classification reached an average accuracy of 77% across all labeled categories. With FIG-Loneliness and model predictions, we found that loneliness expressions in the young adults related forums were distinct from other forums. Those in young adult-focused forums were more likely to express concerns pertaining to peer relationship, and were potentially more sensitive to geographical isolation impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. Also, we showed that different forms of loneliness have differential use in coping strategies.

SeFAR: Semi-supervised Fine-grained Action Recognition with Temporal Perturbation and Learning Stabilization

Human action understanding is crucial for the advancement of multimodal systems. While recent developments, driven by powerful large language models (LLMs), aim to be general enough to cover a wide range of categories, they often overlook the need for more specific capabilities. In this work, we address the more challenging task of Fine-grained Action Recognition (FAR), which focuses on detailed semantic labels within shorter temporal duration (e.g., "salto backward tucked with 1 turn"). Given the high costs of annotating fine-grained labels and the substantial data needed for fine-tuning LLMs, we propose to adopt semi-supervised learning (SSL). Our framework, SeFAR, incorporates several innovative designs to tackle these challenges. Specifically, to capture sufficient visual details, we construct Dual-level temporal elements as more effective representations, based on which we design a new strong augmentation strategy for the Teacher-Student learning paradigm through involving moderate temporal perturbation. Furthermore, to handle the high uncertainty within the teacher model's predictions for FAR, we propose the Adaptive Regulation to stabilize the learning process. Experiments show that SeFAR achieves state-of-the-art performance on two FAR datasets, FineGym and FineDiving, across various data scopes. It also outperforms other semi-supervised methods on two classical coarse-grained datasets, UCF101 and HMDB51. Further analysis and ablation studies validate the effectiveness of our designs. Additionally, we show that the features extracted by our SeFAR could largely promote the ability of multimodal foundation models to understand fine-grained and domain-specific semantics.

MolReFlect: Towards In-Context Fine-grained Alignments between Molecules and Texts

Molecule discovery is a pivotal research field, impacting everything from the medicines we take to the materials we use. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in molecule understanding and generation, yet the alignments between molecules and their corresponding captions remain a significant challenge. Previous endeavours often treat the molecule as a general SMILES string or molecular graph, neglecting the fine-grained alignments between the molecular sub-structures and the descriptive textual phrases, which are crucial for accurate and explainable predictions. In this case, we introduce MolReFlect, a novel teacher-student framework designed to contextually perform the molecule-caption alignments in a fine-grained way. Our approach initially leverages a larger teacher LLM to label the detailed alignments by directly extracting critical phrases from molecule captions or SMILES strings and implying them to corresponding sub-structures or characteristics. To refine these alignments, we propose In-Context Selective Reflection, which retrieves previous extraction results as context examples for teacher LLM to reflect and lets a smaller student LLM select from in-context reflection and previous extraction results. Finally, we enhance the learning process of the student LLM through Chain-of-Thought In-Context Molecule Tuning, integrating the fine-grained alignments and the reasoning processes within the Chain-of-Thought format. Our experimental results demonstrate that MolReFlect enables LLMs like Mistral-7B to significantly outperform the previous baselines, achieving SOTA performance on the ChEBI-20 dataset. This advancement not only enhances the generative capabilities of LLMs in the molecule-caption translation task, but also contributes to a more explainable framework.

Global-Local Similarity for Efficient Fine-Grained Image Recognition with Vision Transformers

Fine-grained recognition involves the classification of images from subordinate macro-categories, and it is challenging due to small inter-class differences. To overcome this, most methods perform discriminative feature selection enabled by a feature extraction backbone followed by a high-level feature refinement step. Recently, many studies have shown the potential behind vision transformers as a backbone for fine-grained recognition, but their usage of its attention mechanism to select discriminative tokens can be computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a novel and computationally inexpensive metric to identify discriminative regions in an image. We compare the similarity between the global representation of an image given by the CLS token, a learnable token used by transformers for classification, and the local representation of individual patches. We select the regions with the highest similarity to obtain crops, which are forwarded through the same transformer encoder. Finally, high-level features of the original and cropped representations are further refined together in order to make more robust predictions. Through extensive experimental evaluation we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, obtaining favorable results in terms of accuracy across a variety of datasets. Furthermore, our method achieves these results at a much lower computational cost compared to the alternatives. Code and checkpoints are available at: https://github.com/arkel23/GLSim.

TMA: Temporal Motion Aggregation for Event-based Optical Flow

Event cameras have the ability to record continuous and detailed trajectories of objects with high temporal resolution, thereby providing intuitive motion cues for optical flow estimation. Nevertheless, most existing learning-based approaches for event optical flow estimation directly remould the paradigm of conventional images by representing the consecutive event stream as static frames, ignoring the inherent temporal continuity of event data. In this paper, we argue that temporal continuity is a vital element of event-based optical flow and propose a novel Temporal Motion Aggregation (TMA) approach to unlock its potential. Technically, TMA comprises three components: an event splitting strategy to incorporate intermediate motion information underlying the temporal context, a linear lookup strategy to align temporally fine-grained motion features and a novel motion pattern aggregation module to emphasize consistent patterns for motion feature enhancement. By incorporating temporally fine-grained motion information, TMA can derive better flow estimates than existing methods at early stages, which not only enables TMA to obtain more accurate final predictions, but also greatly reduces the demand for a number of refinements. Extensive experiments on DSEC-Flow and MVSEC datasets verify the effectiveness and superiority of our TMA. Remarkably, compared to E-RAFT, TMA achieves a 6\% improvement in accuracy and a 40\% reduction in inference time on DSEC-Flow. Code will be available at https://github.com/ispc-lab/TMA.

Learning 3D Human Shape and Pose from Dense Body Parts

Reconstructing 3D human shape and pose from monocular images is challenging despite the promising results achieved by the most recent learning-based methods. The commonly occurred misalignment comes from the facts that the mapping from images to the model space is highly non-linear and the rotation-based pose representation of body models is prone to result in the drift of joint positions. In this work, we investigate learning 3D human shape and pose from dense correspondences of body parts and propose a Decompose-and-aggregate Network (DaNet) to address these issues. DaNet adopts the dense correspondence maps, which densely build a bridge between 2D pixels and 3D vertices, as intermediate representations to facilitate the learning of 2D-to-3D mapping. The prediction modules of DaNet are decomposed into one global stream and multiple local streams to enable global and fine-grained perceptions for the shape and pose predictions, respectively. Messages from local streams are further aggregated to enhance the robust prediction of the rotation-based poses, where a position-aided rotation feature refinement strategy is proposed to exploit spatial relationships between body joints. Moreover, a Part-based Dropout (PartDrop) strategy is introduced to drop out dense information from intermediate representations during training, encouraging the network to focus on more complementary body parts as well as neighboring position features. The efficacy of the proposed method is validated on both indoor and real-world datasets including Human3.6M, UP3D, COCO, and 3DPW, showing that our method could significantly improve the reconstruction performance in comparison with previous state-of-the-art methods. Our code is publicly available at https://hongwenzhang.github.io/dense2mesh .

Evaluating and Explaining Large Language Models for Code Using Syntactic Structures

Large Language Models (LLMs) for code are a family of high-parameter, transformer-based neural networks pre-trained on massive datasets of both natural and programming languages. These models are rapidly being employed in commercial AI-based developer tools, such as GitHub CoPilot. However, measuring and explaining their effectiveness on programming tasks is a challenging proposition, given their size and complexity. The methods for evaluating and explaining LLMs for code are inextricably linked. That is, in order to explain a model's predictions, they must be reliably mapped to fine-grained, understandable concepts. Once this mapping is achieved, new methods for detailed model evaluations are possible. However, most current explainability techniques and evaluation benchmarks focus on model robustness or individual task performance, as opposed to interpreting model predictions. To this end, this paper introduces ASTxplainer, an explainability method specific to LLMs for code that enables both new methods for LLM evaluation and visualizations of LLM predictions that aid end-users in understanding model predictions. At its core, ASTxplainer provides an automated method for aligning token predictions with AST nodes, by extracting and aggregating normalized model logits within AST structures. To demonstrate the practical benefit of ASTxplainer, we illustrate the insights that our framework can provide by performing an empirical evaluation on 12 popular LLMs for code using a curated dataset of the most popular GitHub projects. Additionally, we perform a user study examining the usefulness of an ASTxplainer-derived visualization of model predictions aimed at enabling model users to explain predictions. The results of these studies illustrate the potential for ASTxplainer to provide insights into LLM effectiveness, and aid end-users in understanding predictions.

GSmoothFace: Generalized Smooth Talking Face Generation via Fine Grained 3D Face Guidance

Although existing speech-driven talking face generation methods achieve significant progress, they are far from real-world application due to the avatar-specific training demand and unstable lip movements. To address the above issues, we propose the GSmoothFace, a novel two-stage generalized talking face generation model guided by a fine-grained 3d face model, which can synthesize smooth lip dynamics while preserving the speaker's identity. Our proposed GSmoothFace model mainly consists of the Audio to Expression Prediction (A2EP) module and the Target Adaptive Face Translation (TAFT) module. Specifically, we first develop the A2EP module to predict expression parameters synchronized with the driven speech. It uses a transformer to capture the long-term audio context and learns the parameters from the fine-grained 3D facial vertices, resulting in accurate and smooth lip-synchronization performance. Afterward, the well-designed TAFT module, empowered by Morphology Augmented Face Blending (MAFB), takes the predicted expression parameters and target video as inputs to modify the facial region of the target video without distorting the background content. The TAFT effectively exploits the identity appearance and background context in the target video, which makes it possible to generalize to different speakers without retraining. Both quantitative and qualitative experiments confirm the superiority of our method in terms of realism, lip synchronization, and visual quality. See the project page for code, data, and request pre-trained models: https://zhanghm1995.github.io/GSmoothFace.

TemporalBench: Benchmarking Fine-grained Temporal Understanding for Multimodal Video Models

Understanding fine-grained temporal dynamics is crucial for multimodal video comprehension and generation. Due to the lack of fine-grained temporal annotations, existing video benchmarks mostly resemble static image benchmarks and are incompetent at evaluating models for temporal understanding. In this paper, we introduce TemporalBench, a new benchmark dedicated to evaluating fine-grained temporal understanding in videos. TemporalBench consists of ~10K video question-answer pairs, derived from ~2K high-quality human annotations detailing the temporal dynamics in video clips. As a result, our benchmark provides a unique testbed for evaluating various temporal understanding and reasoning abilities such as action frequency, motion magnitude, event order, etc. Moreover, it enables evaluations on various tasks like both video question answering and captioning, both short and long video understanding, as well as different models such as multimodal video embedding models and text generation models. Results show that state-of-the-art models like GPT-4o achieve only 38.5% question answering accuracy on TemporalBench, demonstrating a significant gap (~30%) between humans and AI in temporal understanding. Furthermore, we notice a critical pitfall for multi-choice QA where LLMs can detect the subtle changes in negative captions and find a centralized description as a cue for its prediction, where we propose Multiple Binary Accuracy (MBA) to correct such bias. We hope that TemporalBench can foster research on improving models' temporal reasoning capabilities. Both dataset and evaluation code will be made available.

D-FINE: Redefine Regression Task in DETRs as Fine-grained Distribution Refinement

We introduce D-FINE, a powerful real-time object detector that achieves outstanding localization precision by redefining the bounding box regression task in DETR models. D-FINE comprises two key components: Fine-grained Distribution Refinement (FDR) and Global Optimal Localization Self-Distillation (GO-LSD). FDR transforms the regression process from predicting fixed coordinates to iteratively refining probability distributions, providing a fine-grained intermediate representation that significantly enhances localization accuracy. GO-LSD is a bidirectional optimization strategy that transfers localization knowledge from refined distributions to shallower layers through self-distillation, while also simplifying the residual prediction tasks for deeper layers. Additionally, D-FINE incorporates lightweight optimizations in computationally intensive modules and operations, achieving a better balance between speed and accuracy. Specifically, D-FINE-L / X achieves 54.0% / 55.8% AP on the COCO dataset at 124 / 78 FPS on an NVIDIA T4 GPU. When pretrained on Objects365, D-FINE-L / X attains 57.1% / 59.3% AP, surpassing all existing real-time detectors. Furthermore, our method significantly enhances the performance of a wide range of DETR models by up to 5.3% AP with negligible extra parameters and training costs. Our code and pretrained models: https://github.com/Peterande/D-FINE.

Visually-Prompted Language Model for Fine-Grained Scene Graph Generation in an Open World

Scene Graph Generation (SGG) aims to extract <subject, predicate, object> relationships in images for vision understanding. Although recent works have made steady progress on SGG, they still suffer long-tail distribution issues that tail-predicates are more costly to train and hard to distinguish due to a small amount of annotated data compared to frequent predicates. Existing re-balancing strategies try to handle it via prior rules but are still confined to pre-defined conditions, which are not scalable for various models and datasets. In this paper, we propose a Cross-modal prediCate boosting (CaCao) framework, where a visually-prompted language model is learned to generate diverse fine-grained predicates in a low-resource way. The proposed CaCao can be applied in a plug-and-play fashion and automatically strengthen existing SGG to tackle the long-tailed problem. Based on that, we further introduce a novel Entangled cross-modal prompt approach for open-world predicate scene graph generation (Epic), where models can generalize to unseen predicates in a zero-shot manner. Comprehensive experiments on three benchmark datasets show that CaCao consistently boosts the performance of multiple scene graph generation models in a model-agnostic way. Moreover, our Epic achieves competitive performance on open-world predicate prediction. The data and code for this paper are publicly available.

SciPrompt: Knowledge-augmented Prompting for Fine-grained Categorization of Scientific Topics

Prompt-based fine-tuning has become an essential method for eliciting information encoded in pre-trained language models for a variety of tasks, including text classification. For multi-class classification tasks, prompt-based fine-tuning under low-resource scenarios has resulted in performance levels comparable to those of fully fine-tuning methods. Previous studies have used crafted prompt templates and verbalizers, mapping from the label terms space to the class space, to solve the classification problem as a masked language modeling task. However, cross-domain and fine-grained prompt-based fine-tuning with an automatically enriched verbalizer remains unexplored, mainly due to the difficulty and costs of manually selecting domain label terms for the verbalizer, which requires humans with domain expertise. To address this challenge, we introduce SciPrompt, a framework designed to automatically retrieve scientific topic-related terms for low-resource text classification tasks. To this end, we select semantically correlated and domain-specific label terms within the context of scientific literature for verbalizer augmentation. Furthermore, we propose a new verbalization strategy that uses correlation scores as additional weights to enhance the prediction performance of the language model during model tuning. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art, prompt-based fine-tuning methods on scientific text classification tasks under few and zero-shot settings, especially in classifying fine-grained and emerging scientific topics.

Coreset Sampling from Open-Set for Fine-Grained Self-Supervised Learning

Deep learning in general domains has constantly been extended to domain-specific tasks requiring the recognition of fine-grained characteristics. However, real-world applications for fine-grained tasks suffer from two challenges: a high reliance on expert knowledge for annotation and necessity of a versatile model for various downstream tasks in a specific domain (e.g., prediction of categories, bounding boxes, or pixel-wise annotations). Fortunately, the recent self-supervised learning (SSL) is a promising approach to pretrain a model without annotations, serving as an effective initialization for any downstream tasks. Since SSL does not rely on the presence of annotation, in general, it utilizes the large-scale unlabeled dataset, referred to as an open-set. In this sense, we introduce a novel Open-Set Self-Supervised Learning problem under the assumption that a large-scale unlabeled open-set is available, as well as the fine-grained target dataset, during a pretraining phase. In our problem setup, it is crucial to consider the distribution mismatch between the open-set and target dataset. Hence, we propose SimCore algorithm to sample a coreset, the subset of an open-set that has a minimum distance to the target dataset in the latent space. We demonstrate that SimCore significantly improves representation learning performance through extensive experimental settings, including eleven fine-grained datasets and seven open-sets in various downstream tasks.

Mixture Outlier Exposure: Towards Out-of-Distribution Detection in Fine-grained Environments

Many real-world scenarios in which DNN-based recognition systems are deployed have inherently fine-grained attributes (e.g., bird-species recognition, medical image classification). In addition to achieving reliable accuracy, a critical subtask for these models is to detect Out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Given the nature of the deployment environment, one may expect such OOD inputs to also be fine-grained w.r.t. the known classes (e.g., a novel bird species), which are thus extremely difficult to identify. Unfortunately, OOD detection in fine-grained scenarios remains largely underexplored. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by first carefully constructing four large-scale fine-grained test environments, in which existing methods are shown to have difficulties. Particularly, we find that even explicitly incorporating a diverse set of auxiliary outlier data during training does not provide sufficient coverage over the broad region where fine-grained OOD samples locate. We then propose Mixture Outlier Exposure (MixOE), which mixes ID data and training outliers to expand the coverage of different OOD granularities, and trains the model such that the prediction confidence linearly decays as the input transitions from ID to OOD. Extensive experiments and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of MixOE for building up OOD detector in fine-grained environments. The code is available at https://github.com/zjysteven/MixOE.

Exploring the Viability of Synthetic Query Generation for Relevance Prediction

Query-document relevance prediction is a critical problem in Information Retrieval systems. This problem has increasingly been tackled using (pretrained) transformer-based models which are finetuned using large collections of labeled data. However, in specialized domains such as e-commerce and healthcare, the viability of this approach is limited by the dearth of large in-domain data. To address this paucity, recent methods leverage these powerful models to generate high-quality task and domain-specific synthetic data. Prior work has largely explored synthetic data generation or query generation (QGen) for Question-Answering (QA) and binary (yes/no) relevance prediction, where for instance, the QGen models are given a document, and trained to generate a query relevant to that document. However in many problems, we have a more fine-grained notion of relevance than a simple yes/no label. Thus, in this work, we conduct a detailed study into how QGen approaches can be leveraged for nuanced relevance prediction. We demonstrate that -- contrary to claims from prior works -- current QGen approaches fall short of the more conventional cross-domain transfer-learning approaches. Via empirical studies spanning 3 public e-commerce benchmarks, we identify new shortcomings of existing QGen approaches -- including their inability to distinguish between different grades of relevance. To address this, we introduce label-conditioned QGen models which incorporates knowledge about the different relevance. While our experiments demonstrate that these modifications help improve performance of QGen techniques, we also find that QGen approaches struggle to capture the full nuance of the relevance label space and as a result the generated queries are not faithful to the desired relevance label.

Before It's Too Late: A State Space Model for the Early Prediction of Misinformation and Disinformation Engagement

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

Multi-HMR: Multi-Person Whole-Body Human Mesh Recovery in a Single Shot

We present Multi-HMR, a strong sigle-shot model for multi-person 3D human mesh recovery from a single RGB image. Predictions encompass the whole body, i.e., including hands and facial expressions, using the SMPL-X parametric model and 3D location in the camera coordinate system. Our model detects people by predicting coarse 2D heatmaps of person locations, using features produced by a standard Vision Transformer (ViT) backbone. It then predicts their whole-body pose, shape and 3D location using a new cross-attention module called the Human Prediction Head (HPH), with one query attending to the entire set of features for each detected person. As direct prediction of fine-grained hands and facial poses in a single shot, i.e., without relying on explicit crops around body parts, is hard to learn from existing data, we introduce CUFFS, the Close-Up Frames of Full-Body Subjects dataset, containing humans close to the camera with diverse hand poses. We show that incorporating it into the training data further enhances predictions, particularly for hands. Multi-HMR also optionally accounts for camera intrinsics, if available, by encoding camera ray directions for each image token. This simple design achieves strong performance on whole-body and body-only benchmarks simultaneously: a ViT-S backbone on 448{times}448 images already yields a fast and competitive model, while larger models and higher resolutions obtain state-of-the-art results.

PLIP: Language-Image Pre-training for Person Representation Learning

Language-image pre-training is an effective technique for learning powerful representations in general domains. However, when directly turning to person representation learning, these general pre-training methods suffer from unsatisfactory performance. The reason is that they neglect critical person-related characteristics, i.e., fine-grained attributes and identities. To address this issue, we propose a novel language-image pre-training framework for person representation learning, termed PLIP. Specifically, we elaborately design three pretext tasks: 1) Text-guided Image Colorization, aims to establish the correspondence between the person-related image regions and the fine-grained color-part textual phrases. 2) Image-guided Attributes Prediction, aims to mine fine-grained attribute information of the person body in the image; and 3) Identity-based Vision-Language Contrast, aims to correlate the cross-modal representations at the identity level rather than the instance level. Moreover, to implement our pre-train framework, we construct a large-scale person dataset with image-text pairs named SYNTH-PEDES by automatically generating textual annotations. We pre-train PLIP on SYNTH-PEDES and evaluate our models by spanning downstream person-centric tasks. PLIP not only significantly improves existing methods on all these tasks, but also shows great ability in the zero-shot and domain generalization settings. The code, dataset and weights will be released at~https://github.com/Zplusdragon/PLIP

Robust Dual Gaussian Splatting for Immersive Human-centric Volumetric Videos

Volumetric video represents a transformative advancement in visual media, enabling users to freely navigate immersive virtual experiences and narrowing the gap between digital and real worlds. However, the need for extensive manual intervention to stabilize mesh sequences and the generation of excessively large assets in existing workflows impedes broader adoption. In this paper, we present a novel Gaussian-based approach, dubbed DualGS, for real-time and high-fidelity playback of complex human performance with excellent compression ratios. Our key idea in DualGS is to separately represent motion and appearance using the corresponding skin and joint Gaussians. Such an explicit disentanglement can significantly reduce motion redundancy and enhance temporal coherence. We begin by initializing the DualGS and anchoring skin Gaussians to joint Gaussians at the first frame. Subsequently, we employ a coarse-to-fine training strategy for frame-by-frame human performance modeling. It includes a coarse alignment phase for overall motion prediction as well as a fine-grained optimization for robust tracking and high-fidelity rendering. To integrate volumetric video seamlessly into VR environments, we efficiently compress motion using entropy encoding and appearance using codec compression coupled with a persistent codebook. Our approach achieves a compression ratio of up to 120 times, only requiring approximately 350KB of storage per frame. We demonstrate the efficacy of our representation through photo-realistic, free-view experiences on VR headsets, enabling users to immersively watch musicians in performance and feel the rhythm of the notes at the performers' fingertips.

Enhancing Empathetic Response Generation by Augmenting LLMs with Small-scale Empathetic Models

Empathetic response generation is increasingly significant in AI, necessitating nuanced emotional and cognitive understanding coupled with articulate response expression. Current large language models (LLMs) excel in response expression; however, they lack the ability to deeply understand emotional and cognitive nuances, particularly in pinpointing fine-grained emotions and their triggers. Conversely, small-scale empathetic models (SEMs) offer strength in fine-grained emotion detection and detailed emotion cause identification. To harness the complementary strengths of both LLMs and SEMs, we introduce a Hybrid Empathetic Framework (HEF). HEF regards SEMs as flexible plugins to improve LLM's nuanced emotional and cognitive understanding. Regarding emotional understanding, HEF implements a two-stage emotion prediction strategy, encouraging LLMs to prioritize primary emotions emphasized by SEMs, followed by other categories, substantially alleviates the difficulties for LLMs in fine-grained emotion detection. Regarding cognitive understanding, HEF employs an emotion cause perception strategy, prompting LLMs to focus on crucial emotion-eliciting words identified by SEMs, thus boosting LLMs' capabilities in identifying emotion causes. This collaborative approach enables LLMs to discern emotions more precisely and formulate empathetic responses. We validate HEF on the Empathetic-Dialogue dataset, and the findings indicate that our framework enhances the refined understanding of LLMs and their ability to convey empathetic responses.

EVA: An Embodied World Model for Future Video Anticipation

World models integrate raw data from various modalities, such as images and language to simulate comprehensive interactions in the world, thereby displaying crucial roles in fields like mixed reality and robotics. Yet, applying the world model for accurate video prediction is quite challenging due to the complex and dynamic intentions of the various scenes in practice. In this paper, inspired by the human rethinking process, we decompose the complex video prediction into four meta-tasks that enable the world model to handle this issue in a more fine-grained manner. Alongside these tasks, we introduce a new benchmark named Embodied Video Anticipation Benchmark (EVA-Bench) to provide a well-rounded evaluation. EVA-Bench focused on evaluating the video prediction ability of human and robot actions, presenting significant challenges for both the language model and the generation model. Targeting embodied video prediction, we propose the Embodied Video Anticipator (EVA), a unified framework aiming at video understanding and generation. EVA integrates a video generation model with a visual language model, effectively combining reasoning capabilities with high-quality generation. Moreover, to enhance the generalization of our framework, we tailor-designed a multi-stage pretraining paradigm that adaptatively ensembles LoRA to produce high-fidelity results. Extensive experiments on EVA-Bench highlight the potential of EVA to significantly improve performance in embodied scenes, paving the way for large-scale pre-trained models in real-world prediction tasks.

CoNo: Consistency Noise Injection for Tuning-free Long Video Diffusion

Tuning-free long video diffusion has been proposed to generate extended-duration videos with enriched content by reusing the knowledge from pre-trained short video diffusion model without retraining. However, most works overlook the fine-grained long-term video consistency modeling, resulting in limited scene consistency (i.e., unreasonable object or background transitions), especially with multiple text inputs. To mitigate this, we propose the Consistency Noise Injection, dubbed CoNo, which introduces the "look-back" mechanism to enhance the fine-grained scene transition between different video clips, and designs the long-term consistency regularization to eliminate the content shifts when extending video contents through noise prediction. In particular, the "look-back" mechanism breaks the noise scheduling process into three essential parts, where one internal noise prediction part is injected into two video-extending parts, intending to achieve a fine-grained transition between two video clips. The long-term consistency regularization focuses on explicitly minimizing the pixel-wise distance between the predicted noises of the extended video clip and the original one, thereby preventing abrupt scene transitions. Extensive experiments have shown the effectiveness of the above strategies by performing long-video generation under both single- and multi-text prompt conditions. The project has been available in https://wxrui182.github.io/CoNo.github.io/.

ERNIE-Gram: Pre-Training with Explicitly N-Gram Masked Language Modeling for Natural Language Understanding

Coarse-grained linguistic information, such as named entities or phrases, facilitates adequately representation learning in pre-training. Previous works mainly focus on extending the objective of BERT's Masked Language Modeling (MLM) from masking individual tokens to contiguous sequences of n tokens. We argue that such contiguously masking method neglects to model the intra-dependencies and inter-relation of coarse-grained linguistic information. As an alternative, we propose ERNIE-Gram, an explicitly n-gram masking method to enhance the integration of coarse-grained information into pre-training. In ERNIE-Gram, n-grams are masked and predicted directly using explicit n-gram identities rather than contiguous sequences of n tokens. Furthermore, ERNIE-Gram employs a generator model to sample plausible n-gram identities as optional n-gram masks and predict them in both coarse-grained and fine-grained manners to enable comprehensive n-gram prediction and relation modeling. We pre-train ERNIE-Gram on English and Chinese text corpora and fine-tune on 19 downstream tasks. Experimental results show that ERNIE-Gram outperforms previous pre-training models like XLNet and RoBERTa by a large margin, and achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art methods. The source codes and pre-trained models have been released at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/ERNIE.

Multi-Modal Prototypes for Open-World Semantic Segmentation

In semantic segmentation, generalizing a visual system to both seen categories and novel categories at inference time has always been practically valuable yet challenging. To enable such functionality, existing methods mainly rely on either providing several support demonstrations from the visual aspect or characterizing the informative clues from the textual aspect (e.g., the class names). Nevertheless, both two lines neglect the complementary intrinsic of low-level visual and high-level language information, while the explorations that consider visual and textual modalities as a whole to promote predictions are still limited. To close this gap, we propose to encompass textual and visual clues as multi-modal prototypes to allow more comprehensive support for open-world semantic segmentation, and build a novel prototype-based segmentation framework to realize this promise. To be specific, unlike the straightforward combination of bi-modal clues, we decompose the high-level language information as multi-aspect prototypes and aggregate the low-level visual information as more semantic prototypes, on basis of which, a fine-grained complementary fusion makes the multi-modal prototypes more powerful and accurate to promote the prediction. Based on an elastic mask prediction module that permits any number and form of prototype inputs, we are able to solve the zero-shot, few-shot and generalized counterpart tasks in one architecture. Extensive experiments on both PASCAL-5^i and COCO-20^i datasets show the consistent superiority of the proposed method compared with the previous state-of-the-art approaches, and a range of ablation studies thoroughly dissects each component in our framework both quantitatively and qualitatively that verify their effectiveness.

Composed Image Retrieval with Text Feedback via Multi-grained Uncertainty Regularization

We investigate composed image retrieval with text feedback. Users gradually look for the target of interest by moving from coarse to fine-grained feedback. However, existing methods merely focus on the latter, i.e., fine-grained search, by harnessing positive and negative pairs during training. This pair-based paradigm only considers the one-to-one distance between a pair of specific points, which is not aligned with the one-to-many coarse-grained retrieval process and compromises the recall rate. In an attempt to fill this gap, we introduce a unified learning approach to simultaneously modeling the coarse- and fine-grained retrieval by considering the multi-grained uncertainty. The key idea underpinning the proposed method is to integrate fine- and coarse-grained retrieval as matching data points with small and large fluctuations, respectively. Specifically, our method contains two modules: uncertainty modeling and uncertainty regularization. (1) The uncertainty modeling simulates the multi-grained queries by introducing identically distributed fluctuations in the feature space. (2) Based on the uncertainty modeling, we further introduce uncertainty regularization to adapt the matching objective according to the fluctuation range. Compared with existing methods, the proposed strategy explicitly prevents the model from pushing away potential candidates in the early stage, and thus improves the recall rate. On the three public datasets, i.e., FashionIQ, Fashion200k, and Shoes, the proposed method has achieved +4.03%, +3.38%, and +2.40% Recall@50 accuracy over a strong baseline, respectively.

LEVI: Generalizable Fine-tuning via Layer-wise Ensemble of Different Views

Fine-tuning is becoming widely used for leveraging the power of pre-trained foundation models in new downstream tasks. While there are many successes of fine-tuning on various tasks, recent studies have observed challenges in the generalization of fine-tuned models to unseen distributions (i.e., out-of-distribution; OOD). To improve OOD generalization, some previous studies identify the limitations of fine-tuning data and regulate fine-tuning to preserve the general representation learned from pre-training data. However, potential limitations in the pre-training data and models are often ignored. In this paper, we contend that overly relying on the pre-trained representation may hinder fine-tuning from learning essential representations for downstream tasks and thus hurt its OOD generalization. It can be especially catastrophic when new tasks are from different (sub)domains compared to pre-training data. To address the issues in both pre-training and fine-tuning data, we propose a novel generalizable fine-tuning method LEVI (Layer-wise Ensemble of different VIews), where the pre-trained model is adaptively ensembled layer-wise with a small task-specific model, while preserving its efficiencies. By combining two complementing models, LEVI effectively suppresses problematic features in both the fine-tuning data and pre-trained model and preserves useful features for new tasks. Broad experiments with large language and vision models show that LEVI greatly improves fine-tuning generalization via emphasizing different views from fine-tuning data and pre-trained features.

LABOR-LLM: Language-Based Occupational Representations with Large Language Models

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

AutoCast++: Enhancing World Event Prediction with Zero-shot Ranking-based Context Retrieval

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Spurious Feature Diversification Improves Out-of-distribution Generalization

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference time

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

Predict, Refine, Synthesize: Self-Guiding Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Composable Sparse Fine-Tuning for Cross-Lingual Transfer

Fine-tuning the entire set of parameters of a large pretrained model has become the mainstream approach for transfer learning. To increase its efficiency and prevent catastrophic forgetting and interference, techniques like adapters and sparse fine-tuning have been developed. Adapters are modular, as they can be combined to adapt a model towards different facets of knowledge (e.g., dedicated language and/or task adapters). Sparse fine-tuning is expressive, as it controls the behavior of all model components. In this work, we introduce a new fine-tuning method with both these desirable properties. In particular, we learn sparse, real-valued masks based on a simple variant of the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis. Task-specific masks are obtained from annotated data in a source language, and language-specific masks from masked language modeling in a target language. Both these masks can then be composed with the pretrained model. Unlike adapter-based fine-tuning, this method neither increases the number of parameters at inference time nor alters the original model architecture. Most importantly, it outperforms adapters in zero-shot cross-lingual transfer by a large margin in a series of multilingual benchmarks, including Universal Dependencies, MasakhaNER, and AmericasNLI. Based on an in-depth analysis, we additionally find that sparsity is crucial to prevent both 1) interference between the fine-tunings to be composed and 2) overfitting. We release the code and models at https://github.com/cambridgeltl/composable-sft.

Harnessing Earnings Reports for Stock Predictions: A QLoRA-Enhanced LLM Approach

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

Calibrated Seq2seq Models for Efficient and Generalizable Ultra-fine Entity Typing

Ultra-fine entity typing plays a crucial role in information extraction by predicting fine-grained semantic types for entity mentions in text. However, this task poses significant challenges due to the massive number of entity types in the output space. The current state-of-the-art approaches, based on standard multi-label classifiers or cross-encoder models, suffer from poor generalization performance or inefficient inference. In this paper, we present CASENT, a seq2seq model designed for ultra-fine entity typing that predicts ultra-fine types with calibrated confidence scores. Our model takes an entity mention as input and employs constrained beam search to generate multiple types autoregressively. The raw sequence probabilities associated with the predicted types are then transformed into confidence scores using a novel calibration method. We conduct extensive experiments on the UFET dataset which contains over 10k types. Our method outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in terms of F1 score and calibration error, while achieving an inference speedup of over 50 times. Additionally, we demonstrate the generalization capabilities of our model by evaluating it in zero-shot and few-shot settings on five specialized domain entity typing datasets that are unseen during training. Remarkably, our model outperforms large language models with 10 times more parameters in the zero-shot setting, and when fine-tuned on 50 examples, it significantly outperforms ChatGPT on all datasets. Our code, models and demo are available at https://github.com/yanlinf/CASENT.

Task-Specific Skill Localization in Fine-tuned Language Models

Pre-trained language models can be fine-tuned to solve diverse NLP tasks, including in few-shot settings. Thus fine-tuning allows the model to quickly pick up task-specific ``skills,'' but there has been limited study of where these newly-learnt skills reside inside the massive model. This paper introduces the term skill localization for this problem and proposes a solution. Given the downstream task and a model fine-tuned on that task, a simple optimization is used to identify a very small subset of parameters (sim0.01% of model parameters) responsible for (>95%) of the model's performance, in the sense that grafting the fine-tuned values for just this tiny subset onto the pre-trained model gives performance almost as well as the fine-tuned model. While reminiscent of recent works on parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the novel aspects here are that: (i) No further re-training is needed on the subset (unlike, say, with lottery tickets). (ii) Notable improvements are seen over vanilla fine-tuning with respect to calibration of predictions in-distribution (40-90% error reduction) as well as the quality of predictions out-of-distribution (OOD). In models trained on multiple tasks, a stronger notion of skill localization is observed, where the sparse regions corresponding to different tasks are almost disjoint, and their overlap (when it happens) is a proxy for task similarity. Experiments suggest that localization via grafting can assist certain forms of continual learning.

What's New in My Data? Novelty Exploration via Contrastive Generation

Fine-tuning is widely used to adapt language models for specific goals, often leveraging real-world data such as patient records, customer-service interactions, or web content in languages not covered in pre-training. These datasets are typically massive, noisy, and often confidential, making their direct inspection challenging. However, understanding them is essential for guiding model deployment and informing decisions about data cleaning or suppressing any harmful behaviors learned during fine-tuning. In this study, we introduce the task of novelty discovery through generation, which aims to identify novel properties of a fine-tuning dataset by generating examples that illustrate these properties. Our approach, Contrastive Generative Exploration (CGE), assumes no direct access to the data but instead relies on a pre-trained model and the same model after fine-tuning. By contrasting the predictions of these two models, CGE can generate examples that highlight novel characteristics of the fine-tuning data. However, this simple approach may produce examples that are too similar to one another, failing to capture the full range of novel phenomena present in the dataset. We address this by introducing an iterative version of CGE, where the previously generated examples are used to update the pre-trained model, and this updated model is then contrasted with the fully fine-tuned model to generate the next example, promoting diversity in the generated outputs. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of CGE in detecting novel content, such as toxic language, as well as new natural and programming languages. Furthermore, we show that CGE remains effective even when models are fine-tuned using differential privacy techniques.

Get more for less: Principled Data Selection for Warming Up Fine-Tuning in LLMs

This work focuses on leveraging and selecting from vast, unlabeled, open data to pre-fine-tune a pre-trained language model. The goal is to minimize the need for costly domain-specific data for subsequent fine-tuning while achieving desired performance levels. While many data selection algorithms have been designed for small-scale applications, rendering them unsuitable for our context, some emerging methods do cater to language data scales. However, they often prioritize data that aligns with the target distribution. While this strategy may be effective when training a model from scratch, it can yield limited results when the model has already been pre-trained on a different distribution. Differing from prior work, our key idea is to select data that nudges the pre-training distribution closer to the target distribution. We show the optimality of this approach for fine-tuning tasks under certain conditions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology across a diverse array of tasks (NLU, NLG, zero-shot) with models up to 2.7B, showing that it consistently surpasses other selection methods. Moreover, our proposed method is significantly faster than existing techniques, scaling to millions of samples within a single GPU hour. Our code is open-sourced (Code repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DV4LLM-D761/ ). While fine-tuning offers significant potential for enhancing performance across diverse tasks, its associated costs often limit its widespread adoption; with this work, we hope to lay the groundwork for cost-effective fine-tuning, making its benefits more accessible.

Making the Most of your Model: Methods for Finetuning and Applying Pretrained Transformers

This thesis provides methods and analysis of models which make progress on this goal. The techniques outlined are task agnostic, and should provide benefit when used with nearly any transformer LM. We introduce two new finetuning methods which add new capabilities to the models they are used on. The first adds a recurrence mechanism, which removes the fixed-window sized constraint and improves the efficiency of a transformer decoder. The second allows masked language models (MLMs) to be used for initialization of both the encoder and decoder of a non-autoregressive sequence-to-sequence transformer, opening up generative applications of models which were previously only used for natural language understanding tasks. We also introduce two new techniques for improving the quality of predictions of any transformer decoder without additional finetuning. One, hidden state optimization, can be applied to any transformer decoder to improve the quality of predictions at inference time, especially for few-shot classification. The other, conditional beam search, allows practitioners to search for natural language generation (NLG) model outputs with high likelihood while conditioning on the event that the output is not degenerate (e.g. empty, repetitive, etc.). Finally, we provide theoretical and empirical insights on the divergence of model-likelihood and output quality which has widely been observed in prior work. These insights apply to any model which represents a distribution over text, and apply to language models which are not transformers or even autoregressive. We argue that the NLP community has, to some extent, misunderstood the implications of these findings, and encourage a point of view which has more nuance.

Model Breadcrumbs: Scaling Multi-Task Model Merging with Sparse Masks

The rapid development of AI systems has been greatly influenced by the emergence of foundation models. A common approach for targeted problems involves fine-tuning these pre-trained foundation models for specific target tasks, resulting in a rapid spread of models fine-tuned across a diverse array of tasks. This work focuses on the problem of merging multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model derived from a spectrum of auxiliary tasks. We introduce a new simple method, Model Breadcrumbs, which consists of a sparsely defined set of weights that carve out a trajectory within the weight space of a pre-trained model, enhancing task performance when traversed. These breadcrumbs are constructed by subtracting the weights from a pre-trained model before and after fine-tuning, followed by a sparsification process that eliminates weight outliers and negligible perturbations. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of Model Breadcrumbs to simultaneously improve performance across multiple tasks. This contribution aligns with the evolving paradigm of updatable machine learning, reminiscent of the collaborative principles underlying open-source software development, fostering a community-driven effort to reliably update machine learning models. Our method is shown to be more efficient and unlike previous proposals does not require hyperparameter tuning for each new task added. Through extensive experimentation involving various models, tasks, and modalities we establish that integrating Model Breadcrumbs offers a simple, efficient, and highly effective approach for constructing multi-task models and facilitating updates to foundation models.

Large Scale Transfer Learning for Tabular Data via Language Modeling

Tabular data -- structured, heterogeneous, spreadsheet-style data with rows and columns -- is widely used in practice across many domains. However, while recent foundation models have reduced the need for developing task-specific datasets and predictors in domains such as language modeling and computer vision, this transfer learning paradigm has not had similar impact in the tabular domain. In this work, we seek to narrow this gap and present TabuLa-8B, a language model for tabular prediction. We define a process for extracting a large, high-quality training dataset from the TabLib corpus, proposing methods for tabular data filtering and quality control. Using the resulting dataset, which comprises over 1.6B rows from 3.1M unique tables, we fine-tune a Llama 3-8B large language model (LLM) for tabular data prediction (classification and binned regression) using a novel packing and attention scheme for tabular prediction. Through evaluation across a test suite of 329 datasets, we find that TabuLa-8B has zero-shot accuracy on unseen tables that is over 15 percentage points (pp) higher than random guessing, a feat that is not possible with existing state-of-the-art tabular prediction models (e.g. XGBoost, TabPFN). In the few-shot setting (1-32 shots), without any fine-tuning on the target datasets, TabuLa-8B is 5-15 pp more accurate than XGBoost and TabPFN models that are explicitly trained on equal, or even up to 16x more data. We release our model, code, and data along with the publication of this paper.

AnyTaskTune: Advanced Domain-Specific Solutions through Task-Fine-Tuning

The pervasive deployment of Large Language Models-LLMs in various sectors often neglects the nuanced requirements of individuals and small organizations, who benefit more from models precisely tailored to their specific business contexts rather than those with broadly superior general capabilities. This work introduces AnyTaskTune, a novel fine-tuning methodology coined as Task-Fine-Tune, specifically developed to elevate model performance on a diverse array of domain-specific tasks. This method involves a meticulous process to identify and define targeted sub-tasks within a domain, followed by the creation of specialized enhancement datasets for fine-tuning, thereby optimizing task-specific model performance. We conducted comprehensive fine-tuning experiments not only in the legal domain for tasks such as keyword extraction and sentence prediction but across over twenty different sub-tasks derived from the domains of finance, healthcare, law, psychology, consumer services, and human resources. To substantiate our approach and facilitate community engagement, we will open-source these bilingual task datasets. Our findings demonstrate that models fine-tuned using the Task-Fine-Tune methodology not only achieve superior performance on these specific tasks but also significantly outperform models with higher general capabilities in their respective domains. Our work is publicly available at https://github.com/PandaVT/DataTager.

RAG vs Fine-tuning: Pipelines, Tradeoffs, and a Case Study on Agriculture

There are two common ways in which developers are incorporating proprietary and domain-specific data when building applications of Large Language Models (LLMs): Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and Fine-Tuning. RAG augments the prompt with the external data, while fine-Tuning incorporates the additional knowledge into the model itself. However, the pros and cons of both approaches are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a pipeline for fine-tuning and RAG, and present the tradeoffs of both for multiple popular LLMs, including Llama2-13B, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4. Our pipeline consists of multiple stages, including extracting information from PDFs, generating questions and answers, using them for fine-tuning, and leveraging GPT-4 for evaluating the results. We propose metrics to assess the performance of different stages of the RAG and fine-Tuning pipeline. We conduct an in-depth study on an agricultural dataset. Agriculture as an industry has not seen much penetration of AI, and we study a potentially disruptive application - what if we could provide location-specific insights to a farmer? Our results show the effectiveness of our dataset generation pipeline in capturing geographic-specific knowledge, and the quantitative and qualitative benefits of RAG and fine-tuning. We see an accuracy increase of over 6 p.p. when fine-tuning the model and this is cumulative with RAG, which increases accuracy by 5 p.p. further. In one particular experiment, we also demonstrate that the fine-tuned model leverages information from across geographies to answer specific questions, increasing answer similarity from 47% to 72%. Overall, the results point to how systems built using LLMs can be adapted to respond and incorporate knowledge across a dimension that is critical for a specific industry, paving the way for further applications of LLMs in other industrial domains.

POINTS: Improving Your Vision-language Model with Affordable Strategies

In recent years, vision-language models have made significant strides, excelling in tasks like optical character recognition and geometric problem-solving. However, several critical issues remain: 1) Proprietary models often lack transparency about their architectures, while open-source models need more detailed ablations of their training strategies. 2) Pre-training data in open-source works is under-explored, with datasets added empirically, making the process cumbersome. 3) Fine-tuning often focuses on adding datasets, leading to diminishing returns. To address these issues, we propose the following contributions: 1) We trained a robust baseline model using the latest advancements in vision-language models, introducing effective improvements and conducting comprehensive ablation and validation for each technique. 2) Inspired by recent work on large language models, we filtered pre-training data using perplexity, selecting the lowest perplexity data for training. This approach allowed us to train on a curated 1M dataset, achieving competitive performance. 3) During visual instruction tuning, we used model soup on different datasets when adding more datasets yielded marginal improvements. These innovations resulted in a 9B parameter model that performs competitively with state-of-the-art models. Our strategies are efficient and lightweight, making them easily adoptable by the community.

Towards Foundation Models for Learning on Tabular Data

Learning on tabular data underpins numerous real-world applications. Despite considerable efforts in developing effective learning models for tabular data, current transferable tabular models remain in their infancy, limited by either the lack of support for direct instruction following in new tasks or the neglect of acquiring foundational knowledge and capabilities from diverse tabular datasets. In this paper, we propose Tabular Foundation Models (TabFMs) to overcome these limitations. TabFMs harness the potential of generative tabular learning, employing a pre-trained large language model (LLM) as the base model and fine-tuning it using purpose-designed objectives on an extensive range of tabular datasets. This approach endows TabFMs with a profound understanding and universal capabilities essential for learning on tabular data. Our evaluations underscore TabFM's effectiveness: not only does it significantly excel in instruction-following tasks like zero-shot and in-context inference, but it also showcases performance that approaches, and in instances, even transcends, the renowned yet mysterious closed-source LLMs like GPT-4. Furthermore, when fine-tuning with scarce data, our model achieves remarkable efficiency and maintains competitive performance with abundant training data. Finally, while our results are promising, we also delve into TabFM's limitations and potential opportunities, aiming to stimulate and expedite future research on developing more potent TabFMs.

Learning Math Reasoning from Self-Sampled Correct and Partially-Correct Solutions

Pretrained language models have shown superior performance on many natural language processing tasks, yet they still struggle at multi-step formal reasoning tasks like grade school math problems. One key challenge of finetuning them to solve such math reasoning problems is that many existing datasets only contain one reference solution for each problem, despite the fact that there are often alternative solutions resembling different reasoning paths to the final answer. This way, the finetuned models are biased towards the limited reference solutions, which limits their generalization to unseen examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to let the model perform sampling during training and learn from both self-sampled fully-correct solutions, which yield the correct answer upon execution, and partially-correct solutions, whose intermediate state matches an intermediate state of a known correct solution. We show that our use of self-sampled correct and partially-correct solutions can benefit learning and help guide the sampling process, leading to more efficient exploration of the solution space. Additionally, we explore various training objectives to support learning from multiple solutions per example and find they greatly affect the performance. Experiments on two math reasoning datasets show the effectiveness of our method compared to learning from a single reference solution with MLE, where we improve PASS@100 from 35.5% to 44.5% for GSM8K, and 27.6% to 36.2% PASS@80 for MathQA. Such improvements are also consistent across different model sizes. Our code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/TraceCodegen.

Generative Pretrained Hierarchical Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

FineTuneBench: How well do commercial fine-tuning APIs infuse knowledge into LLMs?

There is great interest in fine-tuning frontier large language models (LLMs) to inject new information and update existing knowledge. While commercial LLM fine-tuning APIs from providers such as OpenAI and Google promise flexible adaptation for various applications, the efficacy of fine-tuning remains unclear. In this study, we introduce FineTuneBench, an evaluation framework and dataset for understanding how well commercial fine-tuning APIs can successfully learn new and updated knowledge. We analyze five frontier LLMs with commercially available fine-tuning APIs, including GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro, on their effectiveness in two settings: (1) ingesting novel information, such as recent news events and new people profiles, and (2) updating existing knowledge, such as updated medical guidelines and code frameworks. Our results reveal substantial shortcomings in all the models' abilities to effectively learn new information through fine-tuning, with an average generalization accuracy of 37% across all models. When updating existing knowledge, such as incorporating medical guideline updates, commercial fine-tuning APIs show even more limited capability (average generalization accuracy of 19%). Overall, fine-tuning GPT-4o mini is the most effective for infusing new knowledge and updating knowledge, followed by GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT-4o. The fine-tuning APIs for Gemini 1.5 Flesh and Gemini 1.5 Pro are unable to learn new knowledge or update existing knowledge. These findings underscore a major shortcoming in using current commercial fine-tuning services to achieve reliable knowledge infusion in common scenarios. We open source the FineTuneBench dataset at https://github.com/kevinwu23/StanfordFineTuneBench.

RS-GPT4V: A Unified Multimodal Instruction-Following Dataset for Remote Sensing Image Understanding

The remote sensing image intelligence understanding model is undergoing a new profound paradigm shift which has been promoted by multi-modal large language model (MLLM), i.e. from the paradigm learning a domain model (LaDM) shifts to paradigm learning a pre-trained general foundation model followed by an adaptive domain model (LaGD). Under the new LaGD paradigm, the old datasets, which have led to advances in RSI intelligence understanding in the last decade, are no longer suitable for fire-new tasks. We argued that a new dataset must be designed to lighten tasks with the following features: 1) Generalization: training model to learn shared knowledge among tasks and to adapt to different tasks; 2) Understanding complex scenes: training model to understand the fine-grained attribute of the objects of interest, and to be able to describe the scene with natural language; 3) Reasoning: training model to be able to realize high-level visual reasoning. In this paper, we designed a high-quality, diversified, and unified multimodal instruction-following dataset for RSI understanding produced by GPT-4V and existing datasets, which we called RS-GPT4V. To achieve generalization, we used a (Question, Answer) which was deduced from GPT-4V via instruction-following to unify the tasks such as captioning and localization; To achieve complex scene, we proposed a hierarchical instruction description with local strategy in which the fine-grained attributes of the objects and their spatial relationships are described and global strategy in which all the local information are integrated to yield detailed instruction descript; To achieve reasoning, we designed multiple-turn QA pair to provide the reasoning ability for a model. The empirical results show that the fine-tuned MLLMs by RS-GPT4V can describe fine-grained information. The dataset is available at: https://github.com/GeoX-Lab/RS-GPT4V.

PAC Prediction Sets for Large Language Models of Code

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Cognitively Inspired Energy-Based World Models

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Model Editing with Canonical Examples

We introduce model editing with canonical examples, a setting in which (1) a single learning example is provided per desired behavior, (2) evaluation is performed exclusively out-of-distribution, and (3) deviation from an initial model is strictly limited. A canonical example is a simple instance of good behavior, e.g., The capital of Mauritius is Port Louis) or bad behavior, e.g., An aspect of researchers is coldhearted). The evaluation set contains more complex examples of each behavior (like a paragraph in which the capital of Mauritius is called for.) We create three datasets and modify three more for model editing with canonical examples, covering knowledge-intensive improvements, social bias mitigation, and syntactic edge cases. In our experiments on Pythia language models, we find that LoRA outperforms full finetuning and MEMIT. We then turn to the Backpack language model architecture because it is intended to enable targeted improvement. The Backpack defines a large bank of sense vectors--a decomposition of the different uses of each word--which are weighted and summed to form the output logits of the model. We propose sense finetuning, which selects and finetunes a few (approx 10) sense vectors for each canonical example, and find that it outperforms other finetuning methods, e.g., 4.8% improvement vs 0.3%. Finally, we improve GPT-J-6B by an inference-time ensemble with just the changes from sense finetuning of a 35x smaller Backpack, in one setting outperforming editing GPT-J itself (4.1% vs 1.0%).

Generative Pre-Trained Diffusion Paradigm for Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

DSEE: Dually Sparsity-embedded Efficient Tuning of Pre-trained Language Models

Gigantic pre-trained models have become central to natural language processing (NLP), serving as the starting point for fine-tuning towards a range of downstream tasks. However, two pain points persist for this paradigm: (a) as the pre-trained models grow bigger (e.g., 175B parameters for GPT-3), even the fine-tuning process can be time-consuming and computationally expensive; (b) the fine-tuned model has the same size as its starting point by default, which is neither sensible due to its more specialized functionality, nor practical since many fine-tuned models will be deployed in resource-constrained environments. To address these pain points, we propose a framework for resource- and parameter-efficient fine-tuning by leveraging the sparsity prior in both weight updates and the final model weights. Our proposed framework, dubbed Dually Sparsity-Embedded Efficient Tuning (DSEE), aims to achieve two key objectives: (i) parameter efficient fine-tuning - by enforcing sparsity-aware low-rank updates on top of the pre-trained weights; and (ii) resource-efficient inference - by encouraging a sparse weight structure towards the final fine-tuned model. We leverage sparsity in these two directions by exploiting both unstructured and structured sparse patterns in pre-trained language models via a unified approach. Extensive experiments and in-depth investigations, with diverse network backbones (i.e., BERT, RoBERTa, and GPT-2) on dozens of datasets, consistently demonstrate impressive parameter-/inference-efficiency, while maintaining competitive downstream performance. For instance, DSEE saves about 25% inference FLOPs while achieving comparable performance, with 0.5% trainable parameters on BERT. Codes are available in https://github.com/VITA-Group/DSEE.

Balancing Speciality and Versatility: a Coarse to Fine Framework for Supervised Fine-tuning Large Language Model

Aligned Large Language Models (LLMs) showcase remarkable versatility, capable of handling diverse real-world tasks. Meanwhile, aligned LLMs are also expected to exhibit speciality, excelling in specific applications. However, fine-tuning with extra data, a common practice to gain speciality, often leads to catastrophic forgetting (CF) of previously acquired versatility, hindering the model's performance across diverse tasks. In response to this challenge, we propose CoFiTune, a coarse to fine framework in an attempt to strike the balance between speciality and versatility. At the coarse-grained level, an empirical tree-search algorithm is utilized to pinpoint and update specific modules that are crucial for speciality, while keeping other parameters frozen; at the fine-grained level, a soft-masking mechanism regulates the update to the LLMs, mitigating the CF issue without harming speciality. In an overall evaluation of both speciality and versatility, CoFiTune consistently outperforms baseline methods across diverse tasks and model scales. Compared to the full-parameter SFT, CoFiTune leads to about 14% versatility improvement and marginal speciality loss on a 13B model. Lastly, based on further analysis, we provide a speculative insight into the information forwarding process in LLMs, which helps explain the effectiveness of the proposed method. The code is available at https://github.com/rattlesnakey/CoFiTune.

Fine-Tuning Enhances Existing Mechanisms: A Case Study on Entity Tracking

Fine-tuning on generalized tasks such as instruction following, code generation, and mathematics has been shown to enhance language models' performance on a range of tasks. Nevertheless, explanations of how such fine-tuning influences the internal computations in these models remain elusive. We study how fine-tuning affects the internal mechanisms implemented in language models. As a case study, we explore the property of entity tracking, a crucial facet of language comprehension, where models fine-tuned on mathematics have substantial performance gains. We identify the mechanism that enables entity tracking and show that (i) in both the original model and its fine-tuned versions primarily the same circuit implements entity tracking. In fact, the entity tracking circuit of the original model on the fine-tuned versions performs better than the full original model. (ii) The circuits of all the models implement roughly the same functionality: Entity tracking is performed by tracking the position of the correct entity in both the original model and its fine-tuned versions. (iii) Performance boost in the fine-tuned models is primarily attributed to its improved ability to handle the augmented positional information. To uncover these findings, we employ: Patch Patching, DCM, which automatically detects model components responsible for specific semantics, and CMAP, a new approach for patching activations across models to reveal improved mechanisms. Our findings suggest that fine-tuning enhances, rather than fundamentally alters, the mechanistic operation of the model.

On the Impact of Fine-Tuning on Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Large language models have emerged as powerful tools for general intelligence, showcasing advanced natural language processing capabilities that find applications across diverse domains. Despite their impressive performance, recent studies have highlighted the potential for significant enhancements in LLMs' task-specific performance through fine-tuning strategies like Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and Quantized Low-Rank Adapters (Q-LoRA) method. However, previous works have shown that while fine-tuning offers significant performance gains, it also leads to challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and privacy and safety risks. To this end, there has been little to no work in understanding the impact of fine-tuning on the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Our research investigates the effect of fine-tuning on the reasoning abilities of LLMs, addressing critical questions regarding the impact of task-specific fine-tuning on overall reasoning capabilities, the influence of fine-tuning on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning performance, and the implications for the faithfulness of CoT reasonings. By exploring these dimensions, our study shows the impact of fine-tuning on LLM reasoning capabilities, where the faithfulness of CoT reasoning, on average across four datasets, decreases, highlighting potential shifts in internal mechanisms of the LLMs resulting from fine-tuning processes.

Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Automated Data Curation for Robust Language Model Fine-Tuning

Large Language Models have become the de facto approach to sequence-to-sequence text generation tasks, but for specialized tasks/domains, a pretrained LLM lacks specific capabilities to produce accurate or well-formatted responses. Supervised fine-tuning specializes a LLM by training it on dataset of example prompts with target responses, but real-world data tends to be noisy. While many fine-tuning algorithms exist, here we consider a data-centric AI perspective on LLM fine-tuning, studying how to systematically curate the training dataset to improve the LLM produced via any fine-tuning algorithm. We introduce an automated data curation pipeline CLEAR (Confidence-based LLM Evaluation And Rectification) for instruction tuning datasets, that can be used with any LLM and fine-tuning procedure. CLEAR estimates which training data is low-quality and either filters or corrects it. Automatically identifying which data to filter or correct is done via LLM-derived confidence estimates, to ensure only confident modifications to the dataset. Unlike existing data curation techniques, CLEAR is a comprehensive framework that can improve a dataset (and trained model outputs) without additional fine-tuning computations. We don't assume access to a stronger LLM than the model being fine-tuned (e.g.\ relying on GPT-4 when fine-tuning GPT-3.5), to see whether CLEAR can meaningfully improve the capabilities of any LLM. Experiments reveal that CLEAR consistently improves the performance of fine-tuned models across many datasets and models (like GPT-3.5 and Llama2).

Multi-Head Adapter Routing for Cross-Task Generalization

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) for cross-task generalization consists in pre-training adapters on a multi-task training set before few-shot adaptation to test tasks. Polytropon [Ponti et al., 2023] (Poly) jointly learns an inventory of adapters and a routing function that selects a (variable-size) subset of adapters for each task during both pre-training and few-shot adaptation. In this paper, we investigate the role that adapter routing plays in its success and design new variants based on our findings. First, we build on the intuition that finer-grained routing provides more expressivity. Hence, we propose MHR (Multi-Head Routing), which combines subsets of adapter parameters and outperforms Poly under a comparable parameter budget; by only fine-tuning the routing function and not the adapters (MHR-z), we achieve competitive performance with extreme parameter efficiency. Second, we find that Poly/MHR performance is a result of better multi-task optimization, rather than modular inductive biases that facilitate adapter recombination and local adaptation, as previously hypothesized. In fact, we find that MHR exhibits higher gradient alignment between tasks than any other method. Since this implies that routing is only crucial during multi-task pre-training, we propose MHR-mu, which discards routing and fine-tunes the average of the pre-trained adapters during few-shot adaptation. This establishes MHR-mu as an effective method for single-adapter fine-tuning.

CogDPM: Diffusion Probabilistic Models via Cognitive Predictive Coding

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Exploring Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning Techniques for Code Generation with Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) possess impressive capabilities to generate meaningful code snippets given natural language intents in zero-shot, i.e., without the need for specific fine-tuning. In the perspective of unleashing their full potential, prior work has demonstrated the benefits of fine-tuning the models to task-specific data. However, fine-tuning process demands heavy computational costs and is intractable when resources are scarce, especially for models with billions of parameters. In light of these challenges, previous studies explored In-Context Learning (ICL) as an effective strategy to generate contextually appropriate code without fine-tuning. However, it operates at inference time and does not involve learning task-specific parameters, potentially limiting the model's performance on downstream tasks. In this context, we foresee that Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques carry a high potential for efficiently specializing LLMs to task-specific data. In this paper, we deliver a comprehensive study of LLMs with the impact of PEFT techniques under the automated code generation scenario. Our experimental results reveal the superiority and potential of such techniques over ICL on a wide range of LLMs in reducing the computational burden and improving performance. Therefore, the study opens opportunities for broader applications of PEFT in software engineering scenarios.

Program Synthesis with Large Language Models

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

Corrective or Backfire: Characterizing and Predicting User Response to Social Correction

Online misinformation poses a global risk with harmful implications for society. Ordinary social media users are known to actively reply to misinformation posts with counter-misinformation messages, which is shown to be effective in containing the spread of misinformation. Such a practice is defined as "social correction". Nevertheless, it remains unknown how users respond to social correction in real-world scenarios, especially, will it have a corrective or backfire effect on users. Investigating this research question is pivotal for developing and refining strategies that maximize the efficacy of social correction initiatives. To fill this gap, we conduct an in-depth study to characterize and predict the user response to social correction in a data-driven manner through the lens of X (Formerly Twitter), where the user response is instantiated as the reply that is written toward a counter-misinformation message. Particularly, we first create a novel dataset with 55, 549 triples of misinformation tweets, counter-misinformation replies, and responses to counter-misinformation replies, and then curate a taxonomy to illustrate different kinds of user responses. Next, fine-grained statistical analysis of reply linguistic and engagement features as well as repliers' user attributes is conducted to illustrate the characteristics that are significant in determining whether a reply will have a corrective or backfire effect. Finally, we build a user response prediction model to identify whether a social correction will be corrective, neutral, or have a backfire effect, which achieves a promising F1 score of 0.816. Our work enables stakeholders to monitor and predict user responses effectively, thus guiding the use of social correction to maximize their corrective impact and minimize backfire effects. The code and data is accessible on https://github.com/claws-lab/response-to-social-correction.

SNFinLLM: Systematic and Nuanced Financial Domain Adaptation of Chinese Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have become powerful tools for advancing natural language processing applications in the financial industry. However, existing financial LLMs often face challenges such as hallucinations or superficial parameter training, resulting in suboptimal performance, particularly in financial computing and machine reading comprehension (MRC). To address these issues, we propose a novel large language model specifically designed for the Chinese financial domain, named SNFinLLM. SNFinLLM excels in domain-specific tasks such as answering questions, summarizing financial research reports, analyzing sentiment, and executing financial calculations. We then perform the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to enhance the model's proficiency across various financial domains. Specifically, we gather extensive financial data and create a high-quality instruction dataset composed of news articles, professional papers, and research reports of finance domain. Utilizing both domain-specific and general datasets, we proceed with continuous pre-training on an established open-source base model, resulting in SNFinLLM-base. Following this, we engage in supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to bolster the model's capability across multiple financial tasks. Crucially, we employ a straightforward Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) method to better align the model with human preferences. Extensive experiments conducted on finance benchmarks and our evaluation dataset demonstrate that SNFinLLM markedly outperforms other state-of-the-art financial language models. For more details, check out our demo video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYT-65HZwus.

No Detail Left Behind: Revisiting Self-Retrieval for Fine-Grained Image Captioning

Image captioning systems are unable to generate fine-grained captions as they are trained on data that is either noisy (alt-text) or generic (human annotations). This is further exacerbated by maximum likelihood training that encourages generation of frequently occurring phrases. Previous works have tried to address this limitation by fine-tuning captioners with a self-retrieval (SR) reward. However, we find that SR fine-tuning has a tendency to reduce caption faithfulness and even hallucinate. In this work, we circumvent this bottleneck by improving the MLE initialization of the captioning system and designing a curriculum for the SR fine-tuning process. To this extent, we present (1) Visual Caption Boosting, a novel framework to instill fine-grainedness in generic image captioning datasets while remaining anchored in human annotations; and (2) BagCurri, a carefully designed training curriculum that more optimally leverages the contrastive nature of the self-retrieval reward. Jointly, they enable the captioner to describe fine-grained aspects in the image while preserving faithfulness to ground-truth captions. Our approach outperforms previous work by +8.9% on SR against 99 random distractors (RD100) (Dessi et al., 2023); and +7.6% on ImageCoDe. Additionally, existing metrics to evaluate captioning systems fail to reward diversity or evaluate a model's fine-grained understanding ability. Our third contribution addresses this by proposing self-retrieval from the lens of evaluation. We introduce TrueMatch, a benchmark comprising bags of highly similar images that uses SR to assess the captioner's ability to capture subtle visual distinctions. We evaluate and compare several state-of-the-art open-source MLLMs on TrueMatch, and find that our SR approach outperforms them all by a significant margin (e.g. +4.8% - 7.1% over Cambrian) while having 1-2 orders of magnitude fewer parameters.

Learning to Generate Research Idea with Dynamic Control

The rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their potential to accelerate scientific discovery, particularly in automating the process of research ideation. LLM-based systems have shown promise in generating hypotheses and research ideas. However, current approaches predominantly rely on prompting-based pre-trained models, limiting their ability to optimize generated content effectively. Moreover, they also lack the capability to deal with the complex interdependence and inherent restrictions among novelty, feasibility, and effectiveness, which remains challenging due to the inherent trade-offs among these dimensions, such as the innovation-feasibility conflict. To address these limitations, we for the first time propose fine-tuning LLMs to be better idea proposers and introduce a novel framework that employs a two-stage approach combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and controllable Reinforcement Learning (RL). In the SFT stage, the model learns foundational patterns from pairs of research papers and follow-up ideas. In the RL stage, multi-dimensional reward modeling, guided by fine-grained feedback, evaluates and optimizes the generated ideas across key metrics. Dimensional controllers enable dynamic adjustment of generation, while a sentence-level decoder ensures context-aware emphasis during inference. Our framework provides a balanced approach to research ideation, achieving high-quality outcomes by dynamically navigating the trade-offs among novelty, feasibility, and effectiveness.

Stock Price Prediction Using CNN and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

FastDraft: How to Train Your Draft

Speculative Decoding has gained popularity as an effective technique for accelerating the auto-regressive inference process of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, Speculative Decoding entirely relies on the availability of efficient draft models, which are often lacking for many existing language models due to a stringent constraint of vocabulary incompatibility. In this work we introduce FastDraft, a novel and efficient approach for pre-training and aligning a draft model to any large language model by incorporating efficient pre-training, followed by fine-tuning over synthetic datasets generated by the target model. We demonstrate FastDraft by training two highly parameter efficient drafts for the popular Phi-3-mini and Llama-3.1-8B models. Using FastDraft, we were able to produce a draft with approximately 10 billion tokens on a single server with 8 Intel^circledR Gaudi^circledR 2 accelerators in under 24 hours. Our results show that the draft model achieves impressive results in key metrics of acceptance rate, block efficiency and up to 3x memory bound speed up when evaluated on code completion and up to 2x in summarization, text completion and instruction tasks. We validate our theoretical findings through benchmarking on the latest Intel^circledR Core^{tiny TM} Ultra, achieving a wall-clock time speedup of up to 2x, indicating a significant reduction in runtime. Due to its high quality, FastDraft unlocks large language models inference on AI-PC and other edge-devices.

A Comparative Analysis of Instruction Fine-Tuning LLMs for Financial Text Classification

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across diverse Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, including language understanding, reasoning, and generation. However, general-domain LLMs often struggle with financial tasks due to the technical and specialized nature of financial texts. This study investigates the efficacy of instruction fine-tuning smaller-scale LLMs, including Mistral-7B, Llama3-8B, and Phi3-mini, to enhance their performance in financial text classification tasks. We fine-tuned both instruction-tuned and base models across four financial classification tasks, achieving significant improvements in task-specific performance. Furthermore, we evaluated the zero-shot capabilities of these fine-tuned models on three unseen complex financial tasks, including argument classification, deal completeness classification, and causal classification. Our results indicate while base model fine-tuning led to greater degradation, instruction-tuned models maintained more robust performance. To address this degradation, we employed model merging techniques, integrating single-task domain-specific fine-tuned models with the base model. Using this merging method resulted in significant enhancements in zero-shot performance, even exceeding the original model's accuracy on certain datasets. Our findings underscore the effectiveness of instruction fine-tuning and model merging for adapting LLMs to specialized financial text classification tasks.

Lawma: The Power of Specialization for Legal Tasks

Annotation and classification of legal text are central components of empirical legal research. Traditionally, these tasks are often delegated to trained research assistants. Motivated by the advances in language modeling, empirical legal scholars are increasingly turning to prompting commercial models, hoping that it will alleviate the significant cost of human annotation. Despite growing use, our understanding of how to best utilize large language models for legal tasks remains limited. We conduct a comprehensive study of 260 legal text classification tasks, nearly all new to the machine learning community. Starting from GPT-4 as a baseline, we show that it has non-trivial but highly varied zero-shot accuracy, often exhibiting performance that may be insufficient for legal work. We then demonstrate that a lightly fine-tuned Llama 3 model vastly outperforms GPT-4 on almost all tasks, typically by double-digit percentage points. We find that larger models respond better to fine-tuning than smaller models. A few tens to hundreds of examples suffice to achieve high classification accuracy. Notably, we can fine-tune a single model on all 260 tasks simultaneously at a small loss in accuracy relative to having a separate model for each task. Our work points to a viable alternative to the predominant practice of prompting commercial models. For concrete legal tasks with some available labeled data, researchers are better off using a fine-tuned open-source model.

UniPredict: Large Language Models are Universal Tabular Classifiers

Tabular data prediction is a fundamental machine learning task for many applications. Existing methods predominantly employ discriminative modeling and operate under the assumption of a fixed target column, necessitating re-training for every new predictive task. Inspired by the generative power of large language models (LLMs), this paper exploits the idea of building universal tabular data predictors based on generative modeling, namely UniPredict. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of an LLM to extensive tabular datasets, enabling it to comprehend diverse tabular inputs and predict target variables following the provided instructions. Specifically, we train a single LLM on an aggregation of 169 tabular datasets with diverse targets and compare its performance against baselines that are trained on each dataset separately. We observe this versatile UniPredict model demonstrates an advantage over other models, ranging from 5.4% to 13.4%, when compared with the best tree-boosting baseline and the best neural network baseline, respectively. We further test UniPredict in few-shot learning settings on another 62 tabular datasets. Our method achieves strong performance in quickly adapting to new tasks. In low-resource few-shot setup, we observed a 100%+ performance advantage compared with XGBoost, and significant margin over all baselines. We envision that UniPredict sheds light on developing a universal tabular data prediction system that learns from data at scale and serves a wide range of prediction tasks.

ComPEFT: Compression for Communicating Parameter Efficient Updates via Sparsification and Quantization

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques make it possible to efficiently adapt a language model to create "expert" models that specialize to new tasks or domains. Recent techniques in model merging and compositional generalization leverage these expert models by dynamically composing modules to improve zero/few-shot generalization. Despite the efficiency of PEFT methods, the size of expert models can make it onerous to retrieve expert models per query over high-latency networks like the Internet or serve multiple experts on a single GPU. To address these issues, we present ComPEFT, a novel method for compressing fine-tuning residuals (task vectors) of PEFT based models. ComPEFT employs sparsification and ternary quantization to reduce the size of the PEFT module without performing any additional retraining while preserving or enhancing model performance. In extensive evaluation across T5, T0, and LLaMA-based models with 200M - 65B parameters, ComPEFT achieves compression ratios of 8x - 50x. In particular, we show that ComPEFT improves with scale - stronger models exhibit higher compressibility and better performance. For example, we show that ComPEFT applied to LLaMA outperforms QLoRA by 4.16% on MMLU with a storage size reduction of up to 26x. In addition, we show that the compressed experts produced by ComPEFT maintain few-shot compositional generalization capabilities, facilitate efficient communication and computation, and exhibit enhanced performance when merged. Lastly, we provide an analysis of different method components, compare it with other PEFT methods, and test ComPEFT's efficacy for compressing the residual of full-finetuning. Our code is available at https://github.com/prateeky2806/compeft.

A Time Series Analysis-Based Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Match Human Crowd Accuracy

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark and is statistically equivalent to the human crowd. We also observe an acquiescence effect, with mean model predictions being significantly above 50%, despite an almost even split of positive and negative resolutions. Moreover, in Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%: though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of human crowd forecasting tournaments: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation. This replicates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect for LLMs, and opens up their use for a variety applications throughout society.

Fine-Tuning Large Neural Language Models for Biomedical Natural Language Processing

Motivation: A perennial challenge for biomedical researchers and clinical practitioners is to stay abreast with the rapid growth of publications and medical notes. Natural language processing (NLP) has emerged as a promising direction for taming information overload. In particular, large neural language models facilitate transfer learning by pretraining on unlabeled text, as exemplified by the successes of BERT models in various NLP applications. However, fine-tuning such models for an end task remains challenging, especially with small labeled datasets, which are common in biomedical NLP. Results: We conduct a systematic study on fine-tuning stability in biomedical NLP. We show that finetuning performance may be sensitive to pretraining settings, especially in low-resource domains. Large models have potential to attain better performance, but increasing model size also exacerbates finetuning instability. We thus conduct a comprehensive exploration of techniques for addressing fine-tuning instability. We show that these techniques can substantially improve fine-tuning performance for lowresource biomedical NLP applications. Specifically, freezing lower layers is helpful for standard BERT-BASE models, while layerwise decay is more effective for BERT-LARGE and ELECTRA models. For low-resource text similarity tasks such as BIOSSES, reinitializing the top layer is the optimal strategy. Overall, domainspecific vocabulary and pretraining facilitate more robust models for fine-tuning. Based on these findings, we establish new state of the art on a wide range of biomedical NLP applications. Availability and implementation: To facilitate progress in biomedical NLP, we release our state-of-the-art pretrained and fine-tuned models: https://aka.ms/BLURB.

Generating Mathematical Derivations with Large Language Models

The derivation of mathematical results in specialised fields using Large Language Models (LLMs) is an emerging research direction that can help identify models' limitations, and potentially support mathematical discovery. In this paper, we leverage a symbolic engine to generate derivations of equations at scale, and investigate the capabilities of LLMs when deriving goal equations from premises. Specifically, we employ in-context learning for GPT and fine-tune a range of T5 models to compare the robustness and generalisation of pre-training strategies to specialised models. Empirical results show that fine-tuned FLAN-T5-large (MathT5) outperforms GPT models on all static and out-of-distribution test sets in terms of absolute performance. However, an in-depth analysis reveals that the fine-tuned models are more sensitive to perturbations involving unseen symbols and (to a lesser extent) changes to equation structure. In addition, we analyse 1.7K equations and over 200 derivations to highlight common reasoning errors such as the inclusion of incorrect, irrelevant, and redundant equations, along with the tendency to skip derivation steps. Finally, we explore the suitability of existing metrics for evaluating mathematical derivations finding evidence that, while they capture general properties such as sensitivity to perturbations, they fail to highlight fine-grained reasoning errors and essential differences between models. Overall, this work demonstrates that training models on synthetic data can improve their mathematical capabilities beyond larger architectures.

Enhancing the General Agent Capabilities of Low-Parameter LLMs through Tuning and Multi-Branch Reasoning

Open-source pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong language understanding and generation capabilities, making them highly successful in a variety of tasks. However, when used as agents for dealing with complex problems in the real world, their performance is far inferior to large commercial models such as ChatGPT and GPT-4. As intelligent agents, LLMs need to have the capabilities of task planning, long-term memory, and the ability to leverage external tools to achieve satisfactory performance. Various methods have been proposed to enhance the agent capabilities of LLMs. On the one hand, methods involve constructing agent-specific data and fine-tuning the models. On the other hand, some methods focus on designing prompts that effectively activate the reasoning abilities of the LLMs. We explore both strategies on the 7B and 13B models. We propose a comprehensive method for constructing agent-specific data using GPT-4. Through supervised fine-tuning with constructed data, we find that for these models with a relatively small number of parameters, supervised fine-tuning can significantly reduce hallucination outputs and formatting errors in agent tasks. Furthermore, techniques such as multi-path reasoning and task decomposition can effectively decrease problem complexity and enhance the performance of LLMs as agents. We evaluate our method on five agent tasks of AgentBench and achieve satisfactory results.

Simplicial Closure and higher-order link prediction

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.