Daily Papers

Constructing a timeline requires identifying the chronological order of events in an article. In prior timeline construction datasets, temporal orders are typically annotated by either event-to-time anchoring or event-to-event pairwise ordering, both of which suffer from missing temporal information. To mitigate the issue, we develop a new evaluation dataset, TimeSET, consisting of single-document timelines with document-level order annotation. TimeSET features saliency-based event selection and partial ordering, which enable a practical annotation workload. Aiming to build better automatic timeline construction systems, we propose a novel evaluation framework to compare multiple task formulations with TimeSET by prompting open LLMs, i.e., Llama 2 and Flan-T5. Considering that identifying temporal orders of events is a core subtask in timeline construction, we further benchmark open LLMs on existing event temporal ordering datasets to gain a robust understanding of their capabilities. Our experiments show that (1) NLI formulation with Flan-T5 demonstrates a strong performance among others, while (2) timeline construction and event temporal ordering are still challenging tasks for few-shot LLMs. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/kimihiroh/timeset.

We present Dive Into the BoundarieS (DIBS), a novel pretraining framework for dense video captioning (DVC), that elaborates on improving the quality of the generated event captions and their associated pseudo event boundaries from unlabeled videos. By leveraging the capabilities of diverse large language models (LLMs), we generate rich DVC-oriented caption candidates and optimize the corresponding pseudo boundaries under several meticulously designed objectives, considering diversity, event-centricity, temporal ordering, and coherence. Moreover, we further introduce a novel online boundary refinement strategy that iteratively improves the quality of pseudo boundaries during training. Comprehensive experiments have been conducted to examine the effectiveness of the proposed technique components. By leveraging a substantial amount of unlabeled video data, such as HowTo100M, we achieve a remarkable advancement on standard DVC datasets like YouCook2 and ActivityNet. We outperform the previous state-of-the-art Vid2Seq across a majority of metrics, achieving this with just 0.4% of the unlabeled video data used for pre-training by Vid2Seq.

Are Large language models (LLMs) temporally grounded? Since LLMs cannot perceive and interact with the environment, it is impossible to answer this question directly. Instead, we provide LLMs with textual narratives and probe them with respect to their common-sense knowledge of the structure and duration of events, their ability to order events along a timeline, and self-consistency within their temporal model (e.g., temporal relations such as after and before are mutually exclusive for any pair of events). We evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (such as LLaMA 2 and GPT-4) on three tasks reflecting these abilities. Generally, we find that LLMs lag significantly behind both human performance as well as small-scale, specialised LMs. In-context learning, instruction tuning, and chain-of-thought prompting reduce this gap only to a limited degree. Crucially, LLMs struggle the most with self-consistency, displaying incoherent behaviour in at least 27.23% of their predictions. Contrary to expectations, we also find that scaling the model size does not guarantee positive gains in performance. To explain these results, we study the sources from which LLMs may gather temporal information: we find that sentence ordering in unlabelled texts, available during pre-training, is only weakly correlated with event ordering. Moreover, public instruction tuning mixtures contain few temporal tasks. Hence, we conclude that current LLMs lack a consistent temporal model of textual narratives. Code, datasets, and LLM outputs are available at https://github.com/yfqiu-nlp/temporal-llms.

Generative multimodal content is increasingly prevalent in much of the content creation arena, as it has the potential to allow artists and media personnel to create pre-production mockups by quickly bringing their ideas to life. The generation of audio from text prompts is an important aspect of such processes in the music and film industry. Many of the recent diffusion-based text-to-audio models focus on training increasingly sophisticated diffusion models on a large set of datasets of prompt-audio pairs. These models do not explicitly focus on the presence of concepts or events and their temporal ordering in the output audio with respect to the input prompt. Our hypothesis is focusing on how these aspects of audio generation could improve audio generation performance in the presence of limited data. As such, in this work, using an existing text-to-audio model Tango, we synthetically create a preference dataset where each prompt has a winner audio output and some loser audio outputs for the diffusion model to learn from. The loser outputs, in theory, have some concepts from the prompt missing or in an incorrect order. We fine-tune the publicly available Tango text-to-audio model using diffusion-DPO (direct preference optimization) loss on our preference dataset and show that it leads to improved audio output over Tango and AudioLDM2, in terms of both automatic- and manual-evaluation metrics.

Temporal reasoning is a crucial NLP task, providing a nuanced understanding of time-sensitive contexts within textual data. Although recent advancements in LLMs have demonstrated their potential in temporal reasoning, the predominant focus has been on tasks such as temporal expression and temporal relation extraction. These tasks are primarily designed for the extraction of direct and past temporal cues and to engage in simple reasoning processes. A significant gap remains when considering complex reasoning tasks such as event forecasting, which requires multi-step temporal reasoning on events and prediction on the future timestamp. Another notable limitation of existing methods is their incapability to provide an illustration of their reasoning process, hindering explainability. In this paper, we introduce the first task of explainable temporal reasoning, to predict an event's occurrence at a future timestamp based on context which requires multiple reasoning over multiple events, and subsequently provide a clear explanation for their prediction. Our task offers a comprehensive evaluation of both the LLMs' complex temporal reasoning ability, the future event prediction ability, and explainability-a critical attribute for AI applications. To support this task, we present the first multi-source instruction-tuning dataset of explainable temporal reasoning (ExpTime) with 26k derived from the temporal knowledge graph datasets and their temporal reasoning paths, using a novel knowledge-graph-instructed-generation strategy. Based on the dataset, we propose the first open-source LLM series TimeLlaMA based on the foundation LlaMA2, with the ability of instruction following for explainable temporal reasoning. We compare the performance of our method and a variety of LLMs, where our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of temporal prediction and explanation.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Understanding time is crucial for understanding events expressed in natural language. Because people rarely say the obvious, it is often necessary to have commonsense knowledge about various temporal aspects of events, such as duration, frequency, and temporal order. However, this important problem has so far received limited attention. This paper systematically studies this temporal commonsense problem. Specifically, we define five classes of temporal commonsense, and use crowdsourcing to develop a new dataset, MCTACO, that serves as a test set for this task. We find that the best current methods used on MCTACO are still far behind human performance, by about 20%, and discuss several directions for improvement. We hope that the new dataset and our study here can foster more future research on this topic.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have been widely used for event sequence modeling, but they often struggle to incorporate rich textual event descriptions effectively. Conversely, while Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown remarkable capabilities in processing textual data, they lack mechanisms for handling temporal dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce Language-TPP, a unified framework that integrates TPPs with LLMs for enhanced event sequence modeling. Language-TPP introduces a novel temporal encoding mechanism that converts continuous time intervals into specialized byte-tokens, enabling seamless integration with standard LLM architectures. This approach allows Language-TPP to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple TPP tasks, including event time prediction, type prediction, and intensity estimation, on five datasets. Additionally, we demonstrate that incorporating temporal information significantly improves the quality of generated event descriptions.

Causal precedence between biochemical interactions is crucial in the biomedical domain, because it transforms collections of individual interactions, e.g., bindings and phosphorylations, into the causal mechanisms needed to inform meaningful search and inference. Here, we analyze causal precedence in the biomedical domain as distinct from open-domain, temporal precedence. First, we describe a novel, hand-annotated text corpus of causal precedence in the biomedical domain. Second, we use this corpus to investigate a battery of models of precedence, covering rule-based, feature-based, and latent representation models. The highest-performing individual model achieved a micro F1 of 43 points, approaching the best performers on the simpler temporal-only precedence tasks. Feature-based and latent representation models each outperform the rule-based models, but their performance is complementary to one another. We apply a sieve-based architecture to capitalize on this lack of overlap, achieving a micro F1 score of 46 points.

Understanding the content of events occurring in the video and their inherent temporal logic is crucial for video-text retrieval. However, web-crawled pre-training datasets often lack sufficient event information, and the widely adopted video-level cross-modal contrastive learning also struggles to capture detailed and complex video-text event alignment. To address these challenges, we make improvements from both data and model perspectives. In terms of pre-training data, we focus on supplementing the missing specific event content and event temporal transitions with the proposed event augmentation strategies. Based on the event-augmented data, we construct a novel Event-Aware Video-Text Retrieval model, ie, EA-VTR, which achieves powerful video-text retrieval ability through superior video event awareness. EA-VTR can efficiently encode frame-level and video-level visual representations simultaneously, enabling detailed event content and complex event temporal cross-modal alignment, ultimately enhancing the comprehensive understanding of video events. Our method not only significantly outperforms existing approaches on multiple datasets for Text-to-Video Retrieval and Video Action Recognition tasks, but also demonstrates superior event content perceive ability on Multi-event Video-Text Retrieval and Video Moment Retrieval tasks, as well as outstanding event temporal logic understanding ability on Test of Time task.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are widely used to model the timing and occurrence of events in domains such as social networks, transportation systems, and e-commerce. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM, a novel framework that integrates large language models (LLMs) with TPPs to capture both the semantic and temporal aspects of event sequences. Unlike traditional methods that rely on categorical event type representations, TPP-LLM directly utilizes the textual descriptions of event types, enabling the model to capture rich semantic information embedded in the text. While LLMs excel at understanding event semantics, they are less adept at capturing temporal patterns. To address this, TPP-LLM incorporates temporal embeddings and employs parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods to effectively learn temporal dynamics without extensive retraining. This approach improves both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Experimental results across diverse real-world datasets demonstrate that TPP-LLM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in sequence modeling and event prediction, highlighting the benefits of combining LLMs with TPPs.

We propose TRACIE, a novel temporal reasoning dataset that evaluates the degree to which systems understand implicit events -- events that are not mentioned explicitly in natural language text but can be inferred from it. This introduces a new challenge in temporal reasoning research, where prior work has focused on explicitly mentioned events. Human readers can infer implicit events via commonsense reasoning, resulting in a more comprehensive understanding of the situation and, consequently, better reasoning about time. We find, however, that state-of-the-art models struggle when predicting temporal relationships between implicit and explicit events. To address this, we propose a neuro-symbolic temporal reasoning model, SYMTIME, which exploits distant supervision signals from large-scale text and uses temporal rules to combine start times and durations to infer end times. SYMTIME outperforms strong baseline systems on TRACIE by 5%, and by 11% in a zero prior knowledge training setting. Our approach also generalizes to other temporal reasoning tasks, as evidenced by a gain of 1%-9% on MATRES, an explicit event benchmark.

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in the sequence updates a deductive database of facts (via domain-specific pattern-matching rules); future events are then conditioned on the database contents. They show how to convert such a symbolic system into a neuro-symbolic continuous-time generative model, in which each database fact and the possible event has a time-varying embedding that is derived from its symbolic provenance. In this paper, we modify both models, replacing their recurrent LSTM-based architectures with flatter attention-based architectures (Vaswani et al., 2017), which are simpler and more parallelizable. This does not appear to hurt our accuracy, which is comparable to or better than that of the original models as well as (where applicable) previous attention-based methods (Zuo et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020a).

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real-world applications, event data is typically received in a streaming manner, where the distribution of patterns may shift over time. Additionally, privacy and memory constraints are commonly observed in practical scenarios, further compounding the challenges. Therefore, the continuous monitoring of a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-explored problem. Our work paper addresses this challenge by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which makes the model capable of continuously learning a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting under realistic constraints. Correspondingly, we propose a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPPOur code is available at {\small \url{ https://github.com/yanyanSann/PromptTPP}}, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. The prompts, small learnable parameters, are stored in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP, ensuring that the model learns event streams sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We present a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across three real user behavior datasets.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Real-world videos consist of sequences of events. Generating such sequences with precise temporal control is infeasible with existing video generators that rely on a single paragraph of text as input. When tasked with generating multiple events described using a single prompt, such methods often ignore some of the events or fail to arrange them in the correct order. To address this limitation, we present MinT, a multi-event video generator with temporal control. Our key insight is to bind each event to a specific period in the generated video, which allows the model to focus on one event at a time. To enable time-aware interactions between event captions and video tokens, we design a time-based positional encoding method, dubbed ReRoPE. This encoding helps to guide the cross-attention operation. By fine-tuning a pre-trained video diffusion transformer on temporally grounded data, our approach produces coherent videos with smoothly connected events. For the first time in the literature, our model offers control over the timing of events in generated videos. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MinT outperforms existing open-source models by a large margin.

Automated audio captioning aims at generating natural language descriptions for given audio clips, not only detecting and classifying sounds, but also summarizing the relationships between audio events. Recent research advances in audio captioning have introduced additional guidance to improve the accuracy of audio events in generated sentences. However, temporal relations between audio events have received little attention while revealing complex relations is a key component in summarizing audio content. Therefore, this paper aims to better capture temporal relationships in caption generation with sound event detection (SED), a task that locates events' timestamps. We investigate the best approach to integrate temporal information in a captioning model and propose a temporal tag system to transform the timestamps into comprehensible relations. Results evaluated by the proposed temporal metrics suggest that great improvement is achieved in terms of temporal relation generation.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in various NLP tasks, yet they still face significant challenges in reasoning and arithmetic. Temporal reasoning, a critical component of natural language understanding, has raised increasing research attention. However, comprehensive testing of Allen's interval relations (e.g., before, after, during) -- a fundamental framework for temporal relationships -- remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we present ChronoSense, a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs' temporal understanding. It includes 16 tasks, focusing on identifying the Allen relation between two temporal events and temporal arithmetic, using both abstract events and real-world data from Wikidata. We assess the performance of seven recent LLMs using this benchmark and the results indicate that models handle Allen relations, even symmetrical ones, quite differently. Moreover, the findings suggest that the models may rely on memorization to answer time-related questions. Overall, the models' low performance highlights the need for improved temporal understanding in LLMs and ChronoSense offers a robust framework for future research in this area. Our dataset and the source code are available at https://github.com/duyguislakoglu/chronosense.

Recent advancements in generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality content from context information, but a key question remains: how to teach models to know when to generate content? To answer this question, this study proposes a novel event generative model that draws its statistical intuition from marked temporal point processes, and offers a clean, flexible, and computationally efficient solution for a wide range of applications involving multi-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of the point process without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples, as well as considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

We present an unsupervised representation learning approach using videos without semantic labels. We leverage the temporal coherence as a supervisory signal by formulating representation learning as a sequence sorting task. We take temporally shuffled frames (i.e., in non-chronological order) as inputs and train a convolutional neural network to sort the shuffled sequences. Similar to comparison-based sorting algorithms, we propose to extract features from all frame pairs and aggregate them to predict the correct order. As sorting shuffled image sequence requires an understanding of the statistical temporal structure of images, training with such a proxy task allows us to learn rich and generalizable visual representation. We validate the effectiveness of the learned representation using our method as pre-training on high-level recognition problems. The experimental results show that our method compares favorably against state-of-the-art methods on action recognition, image classification and object detection tasks.

With the release of large-scale motion datasets with textual annotations, the task of establishing a robust latent space for language and 3D human motion has recently witnessed a surge of interest. Methods have been proposed to convert human motion and texts into features to achieve accurate correspondence between them. Despite these efforts to align language and motion representations, we claim that the temporal element is often overlooked, especially for compound actions, resulting in chronological inaccuracies. To shed light on the temporal alignment in motion-language latent spaces, we propose Chronologically Accurate Retrieval (CAR) to evaluate the chronological understanding of the models. We decompose textual descriptions into events, and prepare negative text samples by shuffling the order of events in compound action descriptions. We then design a simple task for motion-language models to retrieve the more likely text from the ground truth and its chronologically shuffled version. CAR reveals many cases where current motion-language models fail to distinguish the event chronology of human motion, despite their impressive performance in terms of conventional evaluation metrics. To achieve better temporal alignment between text and motion, we further propose to use these texts with shuffled sequence of events as negative samples during training to reinforce the motion-language models. We conduct experiments on text-motion retrieval and text-to-motion generation using the reinforced motion-language models, which demonstrate improved performance over conventional approaches, indicating the necessity to consider temporal elements in motion-language alignment.

There has been a surge of interest in language model agents that can navigate virtual environments such as the web or desktop. To navigate such environments, agents benefit from information on the various elements (e.g., buttons, text, or images) present. It remains unclear which element attributes have the greatest impact on agent performance, especially in environments that only provide a graphical representation (i.e., pixels). Here we find that the ordering in which elements are presented to the language model is surprisingly impactful--randomizing element ordering in a webpage degrades agent performance comparably to removing all visible text from an agent's state representation. While a webpage provides a hierarchical ordering of elements, there is no such ordering when parsing elements directly from pixels. Moreover, as tasks become more challenging and models more sophisticated, our experiments suggest that the impact of ordering increases. Finding an effective ordering is non-trivial. We investigate the impact of various element ordering methods in web and desktop environments. We find that dimensionality reduction provides a viable ordering for pixel-only environments. We train a UI element detection model to derive elements from pixels and apply our findings to an agent benchmark--OmniACT--where we only have access to pixels. Our method completes more than two times as many tasks on average relative to the previous state-of-the-art.

Episodic memory plays a crucial role in various cognitive processes, such as the ability to mentally recall past events. While cognitive science emphasizes the significance of spatial context in the formation and retrieval of episodic memory, the current primary approach to implementing episodic memory in AI systems is through transformers that store temporally ordered experiences, which overlooks the spatial dimension. As a result, it is unclear how the underlying structure could be extended to incorporate the spatial axis beyond temporal order alone and thereby what benefits can be obtained. To address this, this paper explores the use of Spatially-Aware Transformer models that incorporate spatial information. These models enable the creation of place-centric episodic memory that considers both temporal and spatial dimensions. Adopting this approach, we demonstrate that memory utilization efficiency can be improved, leading to enhanced accuracy in various place-centric downstream tasks. Additionally, we propose the Adaptive Memory Allocator, a memory management method based on reinforcement learning that aims to optimize efficiency of memory utilization. Our experiments demonstrate the advantages of our proposed model in various environments and across multiple downstream tasks, including prediction, generation, reasoning, and reinforcement learning. The source code for our models and experiments will be available at https://github.com/junmokane/spatially-aware-transformer.

Understanding the abilities of LLMs to reason about natural language plans, such as instructional text and recipes, is critical to reliably using them in decision-making systems. A fundamental aspect of plans is the temporal order in which their steps needs to be executed, which reflects the underlying causal dependencies between them. We introduce CaT-Bench, a benchmark of Step Order Prediction questions, which test whether a step must necessarily occur before or after another in cooking recipe plans. We use this to evaluate how well frontier LLMs understand causal and temporal dependencies. We find that SOTA LLMs are underwhelming (best zero-shot is only 0.59 in F1), and are biased towards predicting dependence more often, perhaps relying on temporal order of steps as a heuristic. While prompting for explanations and using few-shot examples improve performance, the best F1 result is only 0.73. Further, human evaluation of explanations along with answer correctness show that, on average, humans do not agree with model reasoning. Surprisingly, we also find that explaining after answering leads to better performance than normal chain-of-thought prompting, and LLM answers are not consistent across questions about the same step pairs. Overall, results show that LLMs' ability to detect dependence between steps has significant room for improvement.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

We introduce anticipation: a method for constructing a controllable generative model of a temporal point process (the event process) conditioned asynchronously on realizations of a second, correlated process (the control process). We achieve this by interleaving sequences of events and controls, such that controls appear following stopping times in the event sequence. This work is motivated by problems arising in the control of symbolic music generation. We focus on infilling control tasks, whereby the controls are a subset of the events themselves, and conditional generation completes a sequence of events given the fixed control events. We train anticipatory infilling models using the large and diverse Lakh MIDI music dataset. These models match the performance of autoregressive models for prompted music generation, with the additional capability to perform infilling control tasks, including accompaniment. Human evaluators report that an anticipatory model produces accompaniments with similar musicality to even music composed by humans over a 20-second clip.

Prior work has shown that coupling sequential latent variable models with semantic ontological knowledge can improve the representational capabilities of event modeling approaches. In this work, we present a novel, doubly hierarchical, semi-supervised event modeling framework that provides structural hierarchy while also accounting for ontological hierarchy. Our approach consists of multiple layers of structured latent variables, where each successive layer compresses and abstracts the previous layers. We guide this compression through the injection of structured ontological knowledge that is defined at the type level of events: importantly, our model allows for partial injection of semantic knowledge and it does not depend on observing instances at any particular level of the semantic ontology. Across two different datasets and four different evaluation metrics, we demonstrate that our approach is able to out-perform the previous state-of-the-art approaches by up to 8.5%, demonstrating the benefits of structured and semantic hierarchical knowledge for event modeling.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved significant advancements in tasks like Visual Question Answering (VQA) by leveraging foundational Large Language Models (LLMs). However, their abilities in specific areas such as temporal understanding, which is crucial for comprehending real-world dynamics, remain underexplored. To address this, we propose a challenging evaluation benchmark named TemporalVQA, consisting of two parts: (1) Temporal Order Understanding and (2) Time-lapse Estimation. The first part requires MLLMs to determine the sequence of events by analyzing temporally consecutive video frames. The second part presents image pairs with varying time differences, framed as multiple-choice questions, asking MLLMs to estimate the time-lapse between images with options ranging from seconds to years. Our evaluations of advanced MLLMs, including models like GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5-Pro, reveal significant challenges: GPT-4o achieved only 43.8% average consistent accuracy in temporal order tasks and 70% in time-lapse estimation, with open-source models performing even less effectively. These findings underscore the limitations of current MLLMs in visual temporal understanding and reasoning, highlighting the need for further improvements in their temporal capabilities. Our dataset can be found at https://huggingface.co/datasets/fazliimam/temporal-vqa.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Reasoning about time is of fundamental importance. Many facts are time-dependent. For example, athletes change teams from time to time, and different government officials are elected periodically. Previous time-dependent question answering (QA) datasets tend to be biased in either their coverage of time spans or question types. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive probing dataset \tempreason to evaluate the temporal reasoning capability of large language models. Our dataset includes questions of three temporal reasoning levels. In addition, we also propose a novel learning framework to improve the temporal reasoning capability of large language models, based on temporal span extraction and time-sensitive reinforcement learning. We conducted experiments in closed book QA, open book QA, and reasoning QA settings and demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and data are released on https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/TempReason.

Acoustic events are sounds with well-defined spectro-temporal characteristics which can be associated with the physical objects generating them. Acoustic scenes are collections of such acoustic events in no specific temporal order. Given this natural linkage between events and scenes, a common belief is that the ability to classify events must help in the classification of scenes. This has led to several efforts attempting to do well on Acoustic Event Tagging (AET) and Acoustic Scene Classification (ASC) using a multi-task network. However, in these efforts, improvement in one task does not guarantee an improvement in the other, suggesting a tension between ASC and AET. It is unclear if improvements in AET translates to improvements in ASC. We explore this conundrum through an extensive empirical study and show that under certain conditions, using AET as an auxiliary task in the multi-task network consistently improves ASC performance. Additionally, ASC performance further improves with the AET data-set size and is not sensitive to the choice of events or the number of events in the AET data-set. We conclude that this improvement in ASC performance comes from the regularization effect of using AET and not from the network's improved ability to discern between acoustic events.

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

Recognizing the flow of time in a story is a crucial aspect of understanding it. Prior work related to time has primarily focused on identifying temporal expressions or relative sequencing of events, but here we propose computationally annotating each line of a book with wall clock times, even in the absence of explicit time-descriptive phrases. To do so, we construct a data set of hourly time phrases from 52,183 fictional books. We then construct a time-of-day classification model that achieves an average error of 2.27 hours. Furthermore, we show that by analyzing a book in whole using dynamic programming of breakpoints, we can roughly partition a book into segments that each correspond to a particular time-of-day. This approach improves upon baselines by over two hours. Finally, we apply our model to a corpus of literature categorized by different periods in history, to show interesting trends of hourly activity throughout the past. Among several observations we find that the fraction of events taking place past 10 P.M jumps past 1880 - coincident with the advent of the electric light bulb and city lights.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

This study investigates self-supervised learning techniques to obtain representations of Event Sequences. It is a key modality in various applications, including but not limited to banking, e-commerce, and healthcare. We perform a comprehensive study of generative and contrastive approaches in self-supervised learning, applying them both independently. We find that there is no single supreme method. Consequently, we explore the potential benefits of combining these approaches. To achieve this goal, we introduce a novel method that aligns generative and contrastive embeddings as distinct modalities, drawing inspiration from contemporary multimodal research. Generative and contrastive approaches are often treated as mutually exclusive, leaving a gap for their combined exploration. Our results demonstrate that this aligned model performs at least on par with, and mostly surpasses, existing methods and is more universal across a variety of tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-supervised methods consistently outperform the supervised approach on our datasets.

In this paper, we propose a framework centering around a novel architecture called the Event Decomposition Recomposition Network (EDRNet) to tackle the Audio-Visual Event (AVE) localization problem in the supervised and weakly supervised settings. AVEs in the real world exhibit common unravelling patterns (termed as Event Progress Checkpoints (EPC)), which humans can perceive through the cooperation of their auditory and visual senses. Unlike earlier methods which attempt to recognize entire event sequences, the EDRNet models EPCs and inter-EPC relationships using stacked temporal convolutions. Based on the postulation that EPC representations are theoretically consistent for an event category, we introduce the State Machine Based Video Fusion, a novel augmentation technique that blends source videos using different EPC template sequences. Additionally, we design a new loss function called the Land-Shore-Sea loss to compactify continuous foreground and background representations. Lastly, to alleviate the issue of confusing events during weak supervision, we propose a prediction stabilization method called Bag to Instance Label Correction. Experiments on the AVE dataset show that our collective framework outperforms the state-of-the-art by a sizable margin.

Discrete event sequences are ubiquitous, such as an ordered event series of process interactions in Information and Communication Technology systems. Recent years have witnessed increasing efforts in detecting anomalies with discrete-event sequences. However, it still remains an extremely difficult task due to several intrinsic challenges including data imbalance issues, the discrete property of the events, and sequential nature of the data. To address these challenges, in this paper, we propose OC4Seq, a multi-scale one-class recurrent neural network for detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences. Specifically, OC4Seq integrates the anomaly detection objective with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to embed the discrete event sequences into latent spaces, where anomalies can be easily detected. In addition, given that an anomalous sequence could be caused by either individual events, subsequences of events, or the whole sequence, we design a multi-scale RNN framework to capture different levels of sequential patterns simultaneously. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets show that OC4Seq consistently outperforms various representative baselines by a large margin. Moreover, through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, the importance of capturing multi-scale sequential patterns for event anomaly detection is verified.

Temporal graphs are widely used to model dynamic systems with time-varying interactions. In real-world scenarios, the underlying mechanisms of generating future interactions in dynamic systems are typically governed by a set of recurring substructures within the graph, known as temporal motifs. Despite the success and prevalence of current temporal graph neural networks (TGNN), it remains uncertain which temporal motifs are recognized as the significant indications that trigger a certain prediction from the model, which is a critical challenge for advancing the explainability and trustworthiness of current TGNNs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, called Temporal Motifs Explainer (TempME), which uncovers the most pivotal temporal motifs guiding the prediction of TGNNs. Derived from the information bottleneck principle, TempME extracts the most interaction-related motifs while minimizing the amount of contained information to preserve the sparsity and succinctness of the explanation. Events in the explanations generated by TempME are verified to be more spatiotemporally correlated than those of existing approaches, providing more understandable insights. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of TempME, with up to 8.21% increase in terms of explanation accuracy across six real-world datasets and up to 22.96% increase in boosting the prediction Average Precision of current TGNNs.

Reasoning about time is essential for Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand the world. Previous works focus on solving specific tasks, primarily on time-sensitive question answering. While these methods have proven effective, they cannot generalize to a wider spectrum of temporal reasoning tasks. Therefore, we propose a crucial question: Can we build a universal framework to handle a variety of temporal reasoning tasks? To that end, we systematically study 38 temporal reasoning tasks. Based on the observation that 19 tasks are directly related to mathematics, we first leverage the available mathematical dataset to set a solid foundation for temporal reasoning. However, the in-depth study indicates that focusing solely on mathematical enhancement falls short of addressing pure temporal reasoning tasks. To mitigate this limitation, we propose a simple but effective self-critic temporal optimization method to enhance the model's temporal reasoning capabilities without sacrificing general task abilities. Finally, we develop Timo, a model designed to excel in temporal reasoning at the 7B and 13B scales. Notably, Timo outperforms the counterpart LLMs by 10.0 and 7.6 in average accuracy scores and achieves the new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance of comparable size. Extensive experiments further validate our framework's effectiveness and its generalization across diverse temporal tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/zhaochen0110/Timo.

Everyday conversations require understanding everyday events, which in turn, requires understanding temporal commonsense concepts interwoven with those events. Despite recent progress with massive pre-trained language models (LMs) such as T5 and GPT-3, their capability of temporal reasoning in dialogs remains largely under-explored. In this paper, we present the first study to investigate pre-trained LMs for their temporal reasoning capabilities in dialogs by introducing a new task and a crowd-sourced English challenge set, TIMEDIAL. We formulate TIME-DIAL as a multiple-choice cloze task with over 1.1K carefully curated dialogs. Empirical results demonstrate that even the best performing models struggle on this task compared to humans, with 23 absolute points of gap in accuracy. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the models fail to reason about dialog context correctly; instead, they rely on shallow cues based on existing temporal patterns in context, motivating future research for modeling temporal concepts in text and robust contextual reasoning about them. The dataset is publicly available at: https://github.com/google-research-datasets/timedial.

Inspired by the phenomenon of catastrophic forgetting, we investigate the learning dynamics of neural networks as they train on single classification tasks. Our goal is to understand whether a related phenomenon occurs when data does not undergo a clear distributional shift. We define a `forgetting event' to have occurred when an individual training example transitions from being classified correctly to incorrectly over the course of learning. Across several benchmark data sets, we find that: (i) certain examples are forgotten with high frequency, and some not at all; (ii) a data set's (un)forgettable examples generalize across neural architectures; and (iii) based on forgetting dynamics, a significant fraction of examples can be omitted from the training data set while still maintaining state-of-the-art generalization performance.

Temporal reasoning is fundamental to human cognition and is crucial for various real-world applications. While recent advances in Large Language Models have demonstrated promising capabilities in temporal reasoning, existing benchmarks primarily rely on rule-based construction, lack contextual depth, and involve a limited range of temporal entities. To address these limitations, we introduce Chinese Time Reasoning (CTM), a benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs on temporal reasoning within the extensive scope of Chinese dynastic chronology. CTM emphasizes cross-entity relationships, pairwise temporal alignment, and contextualized and culturally-grounded reasoning, providing a comprehensive evaluation. Extensive experimental results reveal the challenges posed by CTM and highlight potential avenues for improvement.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities, but still struggle with processing extensive contexts, limiting their ability to maintain coherence and accuracy over long sequences. In contrast, the human brain excels at organising and retrieving episodic experiences across vast temporal scales, spanning a lifetime. In this work, we introduce EM-LLM, a novel approach that integrates key aspects of human episodic memory and event cognition into LLMs, enabling them to effectively handle practically infinite context lengths while maintaining computational efficiency. EM-LLM organises sequences of tokens into coherent episodic events using a combination of Bayesian surprise and graph-theoretic boundary refinement in an on-line fashion. When needed, these events are retrieved through a two-stage memory process, combining similarity-based and temporally contiguous retrieval for efficient and human-like access to relevant information. Experiments on the LongBench dataset demonstrate EM-LLM's superior performance, outperforming the state-of-the-art InfLLM model with an overall relative improvement of 4.3% across various tasks, including a 33% improvement on the PassageRetrieval task. Furthermore, our analysis reveals strong correlations between EM-LLM's event segmentation and human-perceived events, suggesting a bridge between this artificial system and its biological counterpart. This work not only advances LLM capabilities in processing extended contexts but also provides a computational framework for exploring human memory mechanisms, opening new avenues for interdisciplinary research in AI and cognitive science.

How are we able to learn about complex current events just from short snippets of video? While natural language enables straightforward ways to represent under-specified, partially observable events, visual data does not facilitate analogous methods and, consequently, introduces unique challenges in event understanding. With the growing prevalence of vision-capable AI agents, these systems must be able to model events from collections of unstructured video data. To tackle robust event modeling in multimodal settings, we introduce a multimodal formulation for partially-defined events and cast the extraction of these events as a three-stage span retrieval task. We propose a corresponding benchmark for this task, MultiVENT-G, that consists of 14.5 hours of densely annotated current event videos and 1,168 text documents, containing 22.8K labeled event-centric entities. We propose a collection of LLM-driven approaches to the task of multimodal event analysis, and evaluate them on MultiVENT-G. Results illustrate the challenges that abstract event understanding poses and demonstrates promise in event-centric video-language systems.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

Understanding temporal dynamics is critical for conversational agents, enabling effective content analysis and informed decision-making. However, time-aware datasets, particularly for persona-grounded conversations, are still limited, which narrows their scope and diminishes their complexity. To address this gap, we introduce MTPChat, a multimodal, time-aware persona dialogue dataset that integrates linguistic, visual, and temporal elements within dialogue and persona memory. Leveraging MTPChat, we propose two time-sensitive tasks: Temporal Next Response Prediction (TNRP) and Temporal Grounding Memory Prediction (TGMP), both designed to assess a model's ability to understand implicit temporal cues and dynamic interactions. Additionally, we present an innovative framework featuring an adaptive temporal module to effectively integrate multimodal streams and capture temporal dependencies. Experimental results validate the challenges posed by MTPChat and demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in multimodal time-sensitive scenarios.

Reasoning about real-life events is a unifying challenge in AI and NLP that has profound utility in a variety of domains, while fallacy in high-stake applications could be catastrophic. Able to work with diverse text in these domains, large language models (LLMs) have proven capable of answering questions and solving problems. However, I show that end-to-end LLMs still systematically fail to reason about complex events, and they lack interpretability due to their black-box nature. To address these issues, I propose three general approaches to use LLMs in conjunction with a structured representation of events. The first is a language-based representation involving relations of sub-events that can be learned by LLMs via fine-tuning. The second is a semi-symbolic representation involving states of entities that can be predicted and leveraged by LLMs via few-shot prompting. The third is a fully symbolic representation that can be predicted by LLMs trained with structured data and be executed by symbolic solvers. On a suite of event reasoning tasks spanning common-sense inference and planning, I show that each approach greatly outperforms end-to-end LLMs with more interpretability. These results suggest manners of synergy between LLMs and structured representations for event reasoning and beyond.

Open-ended text generation tasks, such as dialogue generation and story completion, require models to generate a coherent continuation given limited preceding context. The open-ended nature of these tasks brings new challenges to the neural auto-regressive text generators nowadays. Despite these neural models are good at producing human-like text, it is difficult for them to arrange causalities and relations between given facts and possible ensuing events. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel two-stage method which explicitly arranges the ensuing events in open-ended text generation. Our approach can be understood as a specially-trained coarse-to-fine algorithm, where an event transition planner provides a "coarse" plot skeleton and a text generator in the second stage refines the skeleton. Experiments on two open-ended text generation tasks demonstrate that our proposed method effectively improves the quality of the generated text, especially in coherence and diversity. The code is available at: https://github.com/qtli/EventPlanforTextGen.

In this work, we focus on the task of procedure planning from instructional videos with text supervision, where a model aims to predict an action sequence to transform the initial visual state into the goal visual state. A critical challenge of this task is the large semantic gap between observed visual states and unobserved intermediate actions, which is ignored by previous works. Specifically, this semantic gap refers to that the contents in the observed visual states are semantically different from the elements of some action text labels in a procedure. To bridge this semantic gap, we propose a novel event-guided paradigm, which first infers events from the observed states and then plans out actions based on both the states and predicted events. Our inspiration comes from that planning a procedure from an instructional video is to complete a specific event and a specific event usually involves specific actions. Based on the proposed paradigm, we contribute an Event-guided Prompting-based Procedure Planning (E3P) model, which encodes event information into the sequential modeling process to support procedure planning. To further consider the strong action associations within each event, our E3P adopts a mask-and-predict approach for relation mining, incorporating a probabilistic masking scheme for regularization. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

For monitoring crises, political events are extracted from the news. The large amount of unstructured full-text event descriptions makes a case-by-case analysis unmanageable, particularly for low-resource humanitarian aid organizations. This creates a demand to classify events into event types, a task referred to as event coding. Typically, domain experts craft an event type ontology, annotators label a large dataset and technical experts develop a supervised coding system. In this work, we propose PR-ENT, a new event coding approach that is more flexible and resource-efficient, while maintaining competitive accuracy: first, we extend an event description such as "Military injured two civilians'' by a template, e.g. "People were [Z]" and prompt a pre-trained (cloze) language model to fill the slot Z. Second, we select answer candidates Z* = {"injured'', "hurt"...} by treating the event description as premise and the filled templates as hypothesis in a textual entailment task. This allows domain experts to draft the codebook directly as labeled prompts and interpretable answer candidates. This human-in-the-loop process is guided by our interactive codebook design tool. We evaluate PR-ENT in several robustness checks: perturbing the event description and prompt template, restricting the vocabulary and removing contextual information.

Despite remarkable advancements in emulating human-like behavior through Large Language Models (LLMs), current textual simulations do not adequately address the notion of time. To this end, we introduce TimeArena, a novel textual simulated environment that incorporates complex temporal dynamics and constraints that better reflect real-life planning scenarios. In TimeArena, agents are asked to complete multiple tasks as soon as possible, allowing for parallel processing to save time. We implement the dependency between actions, the time duration for each action, and the occupancy of the agent and the objects in the environment. TimeArena grounds to 30 real-world tasks in cooking, household activities, and laboratory work. We conduct extensive experiments with various state-of-the-art LLMs using TimeArena. Our findings reveal that even the most powerful models, e.g., GPT-4, still lag behind humans in effective multitasking, underscoring the need for enhanced temporal awareness in the development of language agents.

Current LLM benchmarks focus on evaluating models' memory of facts and semantic relations, primarily assessing semantic aspects of long-term memory. However, in humans, long-term memory also includes episodic memory, which links memories to their contexts, such as the time and place they occurred. The ability to contextualize memories is crucial for many cognitive tasks and everyday functions. This form of memory has not been evaluated in LLMs with existing benchmarks. To address the gap in evaluating memory in LLMs, we introduce Sequence Order Recall Tasks (SORT), which we adapt from tasks used to study episodic memory in cognitive psychology. SORT requires LLMs to recall the correct order of text segments, and provides a general framework that is both easily extendable and does not require any additional annotations. We present an initial evaluation dataset, Book-SORT, comprising 36k pairs of segments extracted from 9 books recently added to the public domain. Based on a human experiment with 155 participants, we show that humans can recall sequence order based on long-term memory of a book. We find that models can perform the task with high accuracy when relevant text is given in-context during the SORT evaluation. However, when presented with the book text only during training, LLMs' performance on SORT falls short. By allowing to evaluate more aspects of memory, we believe that SORT will aid in the emerging development of memory-augmented models.

Temporal reasoning is a critical challenge in video-language understanding, as it requires models to align semantic concepts consistently across time. While existing large vision-language models (LVLMs) and large language models (LLMs) excel at static tasks, they struggle to capture dynamic interactions and temporal dependencies in video sequences. In this work, we propose Temporal Semantic Alignment via Dynamic Prompting (TSADP), a novel framework that enhances temporal reasoning capabilities through dynamic task-specific prompts and temporal contrastive learning. TSADP leverages a Dynamic Prompt Generator (DPG) to encode fine-grained temporal relationships and a Temporal Contrastive Loss (TCL) to align visual and textual embeddings across time. We evaluate our method on the VidSitu dataset, augmented with enriched temporal annotations, and demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art models in tasks such as Intra-Video Entity Association, Temporal Relationship Understanding, and Chronology Prediction. Human evaluations further confirm TSADP's ability to generate coherent and semantically accurate descriptions. Our analysis highlights the robustness, efficiency, and practical utility of TSADP, making it a step forward in the field of video-language understanding.

Recent advancements in audio generation have enabled the creation of high-fidelity audio clips from free-form textual descriptions. However, temporal relationships, a critical feature for audio content, are currently underrepresented in mainstream models, resulting in an imprecise temporal controllability. Specifically, users cannot accurately control the timestamps of sound events using free-form text. We acknowledge that a significant factor is the absence of high-quality, temporally-aligned audio-text datasets, which are essential for training models with temporal control. The more temporally-aligned the annotations, the better the models can understand the precise relationship between audio outputs and temporal textual prompts. Therefore, we present a strongly aligned audio-text dataset, AudioTime. It provides text annotations rich in temporal information such as timestamps, duration, frequency, and ordering, covering almost all aspects of temporal control. Additionally, we offer a comprehensive test set and evaluation metric to assess the temporal control performance of various models. Examples are available on the https://zeyuxie29.github.io/AudioTime/

Temporal Awareness, the ability to reason dynamically based on the timestamp when a question is raised, is the key distinction between offline and online video LLMs. Unlike offline models, which rely on complete videos for static, post hoc analysis, online models process video streams incrementally and dynamically adapt their responses based on the timestamp at which the question is posed. Despite its significance, temporal awareness has not been adequately evaluated in existing benchmarks. To fill this gap, we present OVO-Bench (Online-VideO-Benchmark), a novel video benchmark that emphasizes the importance of timestamps for advanced online video understanding capability benchmarking. OVO-Bench evaluates the ability of video LLMs to reason and respond to events occurring at specific timestamps under three distinct scenarios: (1) Backward tracing: trace back to past events to answer the question. (2) Real-time understanding: understand and respond to events as they unfold at the current timestamp. (3) Forward active responding: delay the response until sufficient future information becomes available to answer the question accurately. OVO-Bench comprises 12 tasks, featuring 644 unique videos and approximately human-curated 2,800 fine-grained meta-annotations with precise timestamps. We combine automated generation pipelines with human curation. With these high-quality samples, we further developed an evaluation pipeline to systematically query video LLMs along the video timeline. Evaluations of nine Video-LLMs reveal that, despite advancements on traditional benchmarks, current models struggle with online video understanding, showing a significant gap compared to human agents. We hope OVO-Bench will drive progress in video LLMs and inspire future research in online video reasoning. Our benchmark and code can be accessed at https://github.com/JoeLeelyf/OVO-Bench.

The facts and time in the document are intricately intertwined, making temporal reasoning over documents challenging. Previous work models time implicitly, making it difficult to handle such complex relationships. To address this issue, we propose MTGER, a novel Multi-view Temporal Graph Enhanced Temporal Reasoning framework for temporal reasoning over time-involved documents. Concretely, MTGER explicitly models the temporal relationships among facts by multi-view temporal graphs. On the one hand, the heterogeneous temporal graphs explicitly model the temporal and discourse relationships among facts; on the other hand, the multi-view mechanism captures both time-focused and fact-focused information, allowing the two views to complement each other through adaptive fusion. To further improve the implicit reasoning capability of the model, we design a self-supervised time-comparing objective. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the TimeQA and SituatedQA datasets. Furthermore, MTGER gives more consistent answers under question perturbations.

The abundance of instructional videos and their narrations over the Internet offers an exciting avenue for understanding procedural activities. In this work, we propose to learn video representation that encodes both action steps and their temporal ordering, based on a large-scale dataset of web instructional videos and their narrations, without using human annotations. Our method jointly learns a video representation to encode individual step concepts, and a deep probabilistic model to capture both temporal dependencies and immense individual variations in the step ordering. We empirically demonstrate that learning temporal ordering not only enables new capabilities for procedure reasoning, but also reinforces the recognition of individual steps. Our model significantly advances the state-of-the-art results on step classification (+2.8% / +3.3% on COIN / EPIC-Kitchens) and step forecasting (+7.4% on COIN). Moreover, our model attains promising results in zero-shot inference for step classification and forecasting, as well as in predicting diverse and plausible steps for incomplete procedures. Our code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/ProcedureVRL.

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

In contemporary distributed systems, logs are produced at an astounding rate, generating terabytes of data within mere seconds. These logs, containing pivotal details like system metrics, user actions, and diverse events, are foundational to the system's consistent and accurate operations. Precise log ordering becomes indispensable to avert potential ambiguities and discordances in system functionalities. Apache Kafka, a prevalent distributed message queue, offers significant solutions to various distributed log processing challenges. However, it presents an inherent limitation while Kafka ensures the in-order delivery of messages within a single partition to the consumer, it falls short in guaranteeing a global order for messages spanning multiple partitions. This research delves into innovative methodologies to achieve global ordering of messages within a Kafka topic, aiming to bolster the integrity and consistency of log processing in distributed systems. Our code is available on GitHub.

In recent years, microservices have gained widespread adoption in IT operations due to their scalability, maintenance, and flexibility. However, it becomes challenging for site reliability engineers (SREs) to pinpoint the root cause due to the complex relationships in microservices when facing system malfunctions. Previous research employed structured learning methods (e.g., PC-algorithm) to establish causal relationships and derive root causes from causal graphs. Nevertheless, they ignored the temporal order of time series data and failed to leverage the rich information inherent in the temporal relationships. For instance, in cases where there is a sudden spike in CPU utilization, it can lead to an increase in latency for other microservices. However, in this scenario, the anomaly in CPU utilization occurs before the latency increase, rather than simultaneously. As a result, the PC-algorithm fails to capture such characteristics. To address these challenges, we propose RUN, a novel approach for root cause analysis using neural Granger causal discovery with contrastive learning. RUN enhances the backbone encoder by integrating contextual information from time series, and leverages a time series forecasting model to conduct neural Granger causal discovery. In addition, RUN incorporates Pagerank with a personalization vector to efficiently recommend the top-k root causes. Extensive experiments conducted on the synthetic and real-world microservice-based datasets demonstrate that RUN noticeably outperforms the state-of-the-art root cause analysis methods. Moreover, we provide an analysis scenario for the sock-shop case to showcase the practicality and efficacy of RUN in microservice-based applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zmlin1998/RUN.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted many aspects of our lives. However, assessing and ensuring their chronological knowledge remains challenging. Existing approaches fall short in addressing the accumulative nature of knowledge, often relying on a single time stamp. To overcome this, we introduce ChroKnowBench, a benchmark dataset designed to evaluate chronologically accumulated knowledge across three key aspects: multiple domains, time dependency, temporal state. Our benchmark distinguishes between knowledge that evolves (e.g., scientific discoveries, amended laws) and knowledge that remain constant (e.g., mathematical truths, commonsense facts). Building on this benchmark, we present ChroKnowledge (Chronological Categorization of Knowledge), a novel sampling-based framework for evaluating and updating LLMs' non-parametric chronological knowledge. Our evaluation shows: (1) The ability of eliciting temporal knowledge varies depending on the data format that model was trained on. (2) LLMs partially recall knowledge or show a cut-off at temporal boundaries rather than recalling all aspects of knowledge correctly. Thus, we apply our ChroKnowPrompt, an in-depth prompting to elicit chronological knowledge by traversing step-by-step through the surrounding time spans. We observe that our framework successfully updates the overall knowledge across the entire timeline in both the biomedical domain (+11.9%) and the general domain (+2.8%), demonstrating its effectiveness in refining temporal knowledge. This non-parametric approach also enables knowledge updates not only in open-source models but also in proprietary LLMs, ensuring comprehensive applicability across model types. We perform a comprehensive analysis based on temporal characteristics of ChroKnowPrompt and validate the potential of various models to elicit intrinsic temporal knowledge through our method.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Besides entity-centric knowledge, usually organized as Knowledge Graph (KG), events are also an essential kind of knowledge in the world, which trigger the spring up of event-centric knowledge representation form like Event KG (EKG). It plays an increasingly important role in many downstream applications, such as search, question-answering, recommendation, financial quantitative investments, and text generation. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of EKG from history, ontology, instance, and application views. Specifically, to characterize EKG thoroughly, we focus on its history, definition, schema induction, acquisition, related representative graphs/systems, and applications. The development processes and trends are studied therein. We further summarize prospective directions to facilitate future research on EKG.

The audio-visual event localization task requires identifying concurrent visual and auditory events from unconstrained videos within a network model, locating them, and classifying their category. The efficient extraction and integration of audio and visual modal information have always been challenging in this field. In this paper, we introduce CACE-Net, which differs from most existing methods that solely use audio signals to guide visual information. We propose an audio-visual co-guidance attention mechanism that allows for adaptive bi-directional cross-modal attentional guidance between audio and visual information, thus reducing inconsistencies between modalities. Moreover, we have observed that existing methods have difficulty distinguishing between similar background and event and lack the fine-grained features for event classification. Consequently, we employ background-event contrast enhancement to increase the discrimination of fused feature and fine-tuned pre-trained model to extract more refined and discernible features from complex multimodal inputs. Specifically, we have enhanced the model's ability to discern subtle differences between event and background and improved the accuracy of event classification in our model. Experiments on the AVE dataset demonstrate that CACE-Net sets a new benchmark in the audio-visual event localization task, proving the effectiveness of our proposed methods in handling complex multimodal learning and event localization in unconstrained videos. Code is available at https://github.com/Brain-Cog-Lab/CACE-Net.

This paper presents the Nexar Dashcam Collision Prediction Dataset and Challenge, designed to support research in traffic event analysis, collision prediction, and autonomous vehicle safety. The dataset consists of 1,500 annotated video clips, each approximately 40 seconds long, capturing a diverse range of real-world traffic scenarios. Videos are labeled with event type (collision/near-collision vs. normal driving), environmental conditions (lighting conditions and weather), and scene type (urban, rural, highway, etc.). For collision and near-collision cases, additional temporal labels are provided, including the precise moment of the event and the alert time, marking when the collision first becomes predictable. To advance research on accident prediction, we introduce the Nexar Dashcam Collision Prediction Challenge, a public competition on top of this dataset. Participants are tasked with developing machine learning models that predict the likelihood of an imminent collision, given an input video. Model performance is evaluated using the average precision (AP) computed across multiple intervals before the accident (i.e. 500 ms, 1000 ms, and 1500 ms prior to the event), emphasizing the importance of early and reliable predictions. The dataset is released under an open license with restrictions on unethical use, ensuring responsible research and innovation.

This paper introduces UnSeenTimeQA, a novel time-sensitive question-answering (TSQA) benchmark that diverges from traditional TSQA benchmarks by avoiding factual and web-searchable queries. We present a series of time-sensitive event scenarios decoupled from real-world factual information. It requires large language models (LLMs) to engage in genuine temporal reasoning, disassociating from the knowledge acquired during the pre-training phase. Our evaluation of six open-source LLMs (ranging from 2B to 70B in size) and three closed-source LLMs reveal that the questions from the UnSeenTimeQA present substantial challenges. This indicates the models' difficulties in handling complex temporal reasoning scenarios. Additionally, we present several analyses shedding light on the models' performance in answering time-sensitive questions.

Current language models often fail to incorporate long contexts efficiently during generation. We show that a major contributor to this issue are attention priors that are likely learned during pre-training: relevant information located earlier in context is attended to less on average. Yet even when models fail to use the information from a relevant document in their response, they still pay preferential attention to that document compared to an irrelevant document at the same position. We leverage this fact to introduce ``attention sorting'': perform one step of decoding, sort documents by the attention they receive (highest attention going last), repeat the process, generate the answer with the newly sorted context. We find that attention sorting improves performance of long context models. Our findings highlight some challenges in using off-the-shelf language models for retrieval augmented generation.

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Recent advances in generative modeling have led to promising progress on synthesizing 3D human motion from text, with methods that can generate character animations from short prompts and specified durations. However, using a single text prompt as input lacks the fine-grained control needed by animators, such as composing multiple actions and defining precise durations for parts of the motion. To address this, we introduce the new problem of timeline control for text-driven motion synthesis, which provides an intuitive, yet fine-grained, input interface for users. Instead of a single prompt, users can specify a multi-track timeline of multiple prompts organized in temporal intervals that may overlap. This enables specifying the exact timings of each action and composing multiple actions in sequence or at overlapping intervals. To generate composite animations from a multi-track timeline, we propose a new test-time denoising method. This method can be integrated with any pre-trained motion diffusion model to synthesize realistic motions that accurately reflect the timeline. At every step of denoising, our method processes each timeline interval (text prompt) individually, subsequently aggregating the predictions with consideration for the specific body parts engaged in each action. Experimental comparisons and ablations validate that our method produces realistic motions that respect the semantics and timing of given text prompts. Our code and models are publicly available at https://mathis.petrovich.fr/stmc.

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

Languages can encode temporal subordination lexically, via subordinating conjunctions, and morphologically, by marking the relation on the predicate. Systematic cross-linguistic variation among the former can be studied using well-established token-based typological approaches to token-aligned parallel corpora. Variation among different morphological means is instead much harder to tackle and therefore more poorly understood, despite being predominant in several language groups. This paper explores variation in the expression of generic temporal subordination ('when'-clauses) among the languages of Latin America and the Caribbean, where morphological marking is particularly common. It presents probabilistic semantic maps computed on the basis of the languages of the region, thus avoiding bias towards the many world's languages that exclusively use lexified connectors, incorporating associations between character n-grams and English when. The approach allows capturing morphological clause-linkage devices in addition to lexified connectors, paving the way for larger-scale, strategy-agnostic analyses of typological variation in temporal subordination.

Multi-hop logical reasoning over knowledge graph (KG) plays a fundamental role in many artificial intelligence tasks. Recent complex query embedding (CQE) methods for reasoning focus on static KGs, while temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) have not been fully explored. Reasoning over TKGs has two challenges: 1. The query should answer entities or timestamps; 2. The operators should consider both set logic on entity set and temporal logic on timestamp set. To bridge this gap, we define the multi-hop logical reasoning problem on TKGs. With generated three datasets, we propose the first temporal CQE named Temporal Feature-Logic Embedding framework (TFLEX) to answer the temporal complex queries. We utilize vector logic to compute the logic part of Temporal Feature-Logic embeddings, thus naturally modeling all First-Order Logic (FOL) operations on entity set. In addition, our framework extends vector logic on timestamp set to cope with three extra temporal operators (After, Before and Between). Experiments on numerous query patterns demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Time is an important dimension in our physical world. Lots of facts can evolve with respect to time. For example, the U.S. President might change every four years. Therefore, it is important to consider the time dimension and empower the existing QA models to reason over time. However, the existing QA datasets contain rather few time-sensitive questions, hence not suitable for diagnosing or benchmarking the model's temporal reasoning capability. In order to promote research in this direction, we propose to construct a time-sensitive QA dataset. The dataset is constructed by 1) mining time-evolving facts from WikiData and aligning them to their corresponding Wikipedia page, 2) employing crowd workers to verify and calibrate these noisy facts, 3) generating question-answer pairs based on the annotated time-sensitive facts. Our dataset poses challenges in the aspect of both temporal understanding and temporal reasoning. We evaluate different SoTA long-document QA systems like BigBird and FiD on our dataset. The best-performing model FiD can only achieve 46\% accuracy, still far behind the human performance of 87\%. We demonstrate that these models are still lacking the ability to perform consistent temporal reasoning. Therefore, we believe that our dataset could serve as a benchmark to develop NLP models more sensitive to temporal shifts. The dataset and code are released in~https://github.com/wenhuchen/Time-Sensitive-QA.

Entities and events are crucial to natural language reasoning and common in procedural texts. Existing work has focused either exclusively on entity state tracking (e.g., whether a pan is hot) or on event reasoning (e.g., whether one would burn themselves by touching the pan), while these two tasks are often causally related. We propose CREPE, the first benchmark on causal reasoning of event plausibility and entity states. We show that most language models, including GPT-3, perform close to chance at .35 F1, lagging far behind human at .87 F1. We boost model performance to .59 F1 by creatively representing events as programming languages while prompting language models pretrained on code. By injecting the causal relations between entities and events as intermediate reasoning steps in our representation, we further boost the performance to .67 F1. Our findings indicate not only the challenge that CREPE brings for language models, but also the efficacy of code-like prompting combined with chain-of-thought prompting for multihop event reasoning.

Temporal sentence grounding (TSG) aims to locate a specific moment from an untrimmed video with a given natural language query. Recently, weakly supervised methods still have a large performance gap compared to fully supervised ones, while the latter requires laborious timestamp annotations. In this study, we aim to reduce the annotation cost yet keep competitive performance for TSG task compared to fully supervised ones. To achieve this goal, we investigate a recently proposed glance-supervised temporal sentence grounding task, which requires only single frame annotation (referred to as glance annotation) for each query. Under this setup, we propose a Dynamic Gaussian prior based Grounding framework with Glance annotation (D3G), which consists of a Semantic Alignment Group Contrastive Learning module (SA-GCL) and a Dynamic Gaussian prior Adjustment module (DGA). Specifically, SA-GCL samples reliable positive moments from a 2D temporal map via jointly leveraging Gaussian prior and semantic consistency, which contributes to aligning the positive sentence-moment pairs in the joint embedding space. Moreover, to alleviate the annotation bias resulting from glance annotation and model complex queries consisting of multiple events, we propose the DGA module, which adjusts the distribution dynamically to approximate the ground truth of target moments. Extensive experiments on three challenging benchmarks verify the effectiveness of the proposed D3G. It outperforms the state-of-the-art weakly supervised methods by a large margin and narrows the performance gap compared to fully supervised methods. Code is available at https://github.com/solicucu/D3G.

In this paper, we introduce EconLogicQA, a rigorous benchmark designed to assess the sequential reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) within the intricate realms of economics, business, and supply chain management. Diverging from traditional benchmarks that predict subsequent events individually, EconLogicQA poses a more challenging task: it requires models to discern and sequence multiple interconnected events, capturing the complexity of economic logics. EconLogicQA comprises an array of multi-event scenarios derived from economic articles, which necessitate an insightful understanding of both temporal and logical event relationships. Through comprehensive evaluations, we exhibit that EconLogicQA effectively gauges a LLM's proficiency in navigating the sequential complexities inherent in economic contexts. We provide a detailed description of EconLogicQA dataset and shows the outcomes from evaluating the benchmark across various leading-edge LLMs, thereby offering a thorough perspective on their sequential reasoning potential in economic contexts. Our benchmark dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/yinzhu-quan/econ_logic_qa.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Video-language pre-training has advanced the performance of various downstream video-language tasks. However, most previous methods directly inherit or adapt typical image-language pre-training paradigms to video-language pre-training, thus not fully exploiting the unique characteristic of video, i.e., temporal. In this paper, we propose a Hierarchical Temporal-Aware video-language pre-training framework, HiTeA, with two novel pre-training tasks for modeling cross-modal alignment between moments and texts as well as the temporal relations of video-text pairs. Specifically, we propose a cross-modal moment exploration task to explore moments in videos, which results in detailed video moment representation. Besides, the inherent temporal relations are captured by aligning video-text pairs as a whole in different time resolutions with multi-modal temporal relation exploration task. Furthermore, we introduce the shuffling test to evaluate the temporal reliance of datasets and video-language pre-training models. We achieve state-of-the-art results on 15 well-established video-language understanding and generation tasks, especially on temporal-oriented datasets (e.g., SSv2-Template and SSv2-Label) with 8.6% and 11.1% improvement respectively. HiTeA also demonstrates strong generalization ability when directly transferred to downstream tasks in a zero-shot manner. Models and demo will be available on ModelScope.

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit undesirable behaviors, such as hallucinations and sequence repetitions. We propose to view these behaviors as fallbacks that models exhibit under uncertainty, and investigate the connection between them. We categorize fallback behaviors -- sequence repetitions, degenerate text, and hallucinations -- and extensively analyze them in models from the same family that differ by the amount of pretraining tokens, parameter count, or the inclusion of instruction-following training. Our experiments reveal a clear and consistent ordering of fallback behaviors, across all these axes: the more advanced an LLM is (i.e., trained on more tokens, has more parameters, or instruction-tuned), its fallback behavior shifts from sequence repetitions, to degenerate text, and then to hallucinations. Moreover, the same ordering is observed throughout a single generation, even for the best-performing models; as uncertainty increases, models shift from generating hallucinations to producing degenerate text and then sequence repetitions. Lastly, we demonstrate that while common decoding techniques, such as random sampling, might alleviate some unwanted behaviors like sequence repetitions, they increase harder-to-detect hallucinations.

Node centralities play a pivotal role in network science, social network analysis, and recommender systems. In temporal data, static path-based centralities like closeness or betweenness can give misleading results about the true importance of nodes in a temporal graph. To address this issue, temporal generalizations of betweenness and closeness have been defined that are based on the shortest time-respecting paths between pairs of nodes. However, a major issue of those generalizations is that the calculation of such paths is computationally expensive. Addressing this issue, we study the application of De Bruijn Graph Neural Networks (DBGNN), a causality-aware graph neural network architecture, to predict temporal path-based centralities in time series data. We experimentally evaluate our approach in 13 temporal graphs from biological and social systems and show that it considerably improves the prediction of both betweenness and closeness centrality compared to a static Graph Convolutional Neural Network.

We investigate in-context temporal biases in attention heads and transformer outputs. Using cognitive science methodologies, we analyze attention scores and outputs of the GPT-2 models of varying sizes. Across attention heads, we observe effects characteristic of human episodic memory, including temporal contiguity, primacy and recency. Transformer outputs demonstrate a tendency toward in-context serial recall. Importantly, this effect is eliminated after the ablation of the induction heads, which are the driving force behind the contiguity effect. Our findings offer insights into how transformers organize information temporally during in-context learning, shedding light on their similarities and differences with human memory and learning.

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.

Causality knowledge is vital to building robust AI systems. Deep learning models often perform poorly on tasks that require causal reasoning, which is often derived using some form of commonsense knowledge not immediately available in the input but implicitly inferred by humans. Prior work has unraveled spurious observational biases that models fall prey to in the absence of causality. While language representation models preserve contextual knowledge within learned embeddings, they do not factor in causal relationships during training. By blending causal relationships with the input features to an existing model that performs visual cognition tasks (such as scene understanding, video captioning, video question-answering, etc.), better performance can be achieved owing to the insight causal relationships bring about. Recently, several models have been proposed that have tackled the task of mining causal data from either the visual or textual modality. However, there does not exist widespread research that mines causal relationships by juxtaposing the visual and language modalities. While images offer a rich and easy-to-process resource for us to mine causality knowledge from, videos are denser and consist of naturally time-ordered events. Also, textual information offers details that could be implicit in videos. We propose iReason, a framework that infers visual-semantic commonsense knowledge using both videos and natural language captions. Furthermore, iReason's architecture integrates a causal rationalization module to aid the process of interpretability, error analysis and bias detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of iReason using a two-pronged comparative analysis with language representation learning models (BERT, GPT-2) as well as current state-of-the-art multimodal causality models.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

Prior work has established test-time training (TTT) as a general framework to further improve a trained model at test time. Before making a prediction on each test instance, the model is trained on the same instance using a self-supervised task, such as image reconstruction with masked autoencoders. We extend TTT to the streaming setting, where multiple test instances - video frames in our case - arrive in temporal order. Our extension is online TTT: The current model is initialized from the previous model, then trained on the current frame and a small window of frames immediately before. Online TTT significantly outperforms the fixed-model baseline for four tasks, on three real-world datasets. The relative improvement is 45% and 66% for instance and panoptic segmentation. Surprisingly, online TTT also outperforms its offline variant that accesses more information, training on all frames from the entire test video regardless of temporal order. This differs from previous findings using synthetic videos. We conceptualize locality as the advantage of online over offline TTT. We analyze the role of locality with ablations and a theory based on bias-variance trade-off.

Natural disasters, such as floods, tornadoes, or wildfires, are increasingly pervasive as the Earth undergoes global warming. It is difficult to predict when and where an incident will occur, so timely emergency response is critical to saving the lives of those endangered by destructive events. Fortunately, technology can play a role in these situations. Social media posts can be used as a low-latency data source to understand the progression and aftermath of a disaster, yet parsing this data is tedious without automated methods. Prior work has mostly focused on text-based filtering, yet image and video-based filtering remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the Incidents1M Dataset, a large-scale multi-label dataset which contains 977,088 images, with 43 incident and 49 place categories. We provide details of the dataset construction, statistics and potential biases; introduce and train a model for incident detection; and perform image-filtering experiments on millions of images on Flickr and Twitter. We also present some applications on incident analysis to encourage and enable future work in computer vision for humanitarian aid. Code, data, and models are available at http://incidentsdataset.csail.mit.edu.

Commonsense reasoning is omnipresent in human communications and thus is an important feature for open-domain dialogue systems. However, evaluating commonsense in dialogue systems is still an open challenge. We take the first step by focusing on event commonsense that considers events and their relations, and is crucial in both dialogues and general commonsense reasoning. We propose ACCENT, an event commonsense evaluation metric empowered by commonsense knowledge bases (CSKBs). ACCENT first extracts event-relation tuples from a dialogue, and then evaluates the response by scoring the tuples in terms of their compatibility with the CSKB. To evaluate ACCENT, we construct the first public event commonsense evaluation dataset for open-domain dialogues. Our experiments show that ACCENT is an efficient metric for event commonsense evaluation, which achieves higher correlations with human judgments than existing baselines.

We consider the task of temporal human action localization in lifestyle vlogs. We introduce a novel dataset consisting of manual annotations of temporal localization for 13,000 narrated actions in 1,200 video clips. We present an extensive analysis of this data, which allows us to better understand how the language and visual modalities interact throughout the videos. We propose a simple yet effective method to localize the narrated actions based on their expected duration. Through several experiments and analyses, we show that our method brings complementary information with respect to previous methods, and leads to improvements over previous work for the task of temporal action localization.

While the ability of language models to elicit facts has been widely investigated, how they handle temporally changing facts remains underexplored. We discover Temporal Heads, specific attention heads primarily responsible for processing temporal knowledge through circuit analysis. We confirm that these heads are present across multiple models, though their specific locations may vary, and their responses differ depending on the type of knowledge and its corresponding years. Disabling these heads degrades the model's ability to recall time-specific knowledge while maintaining its general capabilities without compromising time-invariant and question-answering performances. Moreover, the heads are activated not only numeric conditions ("In 2004") but also textual aliases ("In the year ..."), indicating that they encode a temporal dimension beyond simple numerical representation. Furthermore, we expand the potential of our findings by demonstrating how temporal knowledge can be edited by adjusting the values of these heads.

Diverse actions give rise to rich audio-visual signals in long videos. Recent works showcase that the two modalities of audio and video exhibit different temporal extents of events and distinct labels. We address the interplay between the two modalities in long videos by explicitly modelling the temporal extents of audio and visual events. We propose the Time Interval Machine (TIM) where a modality-specific time interval poses as a query to a transformer encoder that ingests a long video input. The encoder then attends to the specified interval, as well as the surrounding context in both modalities, in order to recognise the ongoing action. We test TIM on three long audio-visual video datasets: EPIC-KITCHENS, Perception Test, and AVE, reporting state-of-the-art (SOTA) for recognition. On EPIC-KITCHENS, we beat previous SOTA that utilises LLMs and significantly larger pre-training by 2.9% top-1 action recognition accuracy. Additionally, we show that TIM can be adapted for action detection, using dense multi-scale interval queries, outperforming SOTA on EPIC-KITCHENS-100 for most metrics, and showing strong performance on the Perception Test. Our ablations show the critical role of integrating the two modalities and modelling their time intervals in achieving this performance. Code and models at: https://github.com/JacobChalk/TIM

Nested Event Extraction (NEE) aims to extract complex event structures where an event contains other events as its arguments recursively. Nested events involve a kind of Pivot Elements (PEs) that simultaneously act as arguments of outer events and as triggers of inner events, and thus connect them into nested structures. This special characteristic of PEs brings challenges to existing NEE methods, as they cannot well cope with the dual identities of PEs. Therefore, this paper proposes a new model, called PerNee, which extracts nested events mainly based on recognizing PEs. Specifically, PerNee first recognizes the triggers of both inner and outer events and further recognizes the PEs via classifying the relation type between trigger pairs. In order to obtain better representations of triggers and arguments to further improve NEE performance, it incorporates the information of both event types and argument roles into PerNee through prompt learning. Since existing NEE datasets (e.g., Genia11) are limited to specific domains and contain a narrow range of event types with nested structures, we systematically categorize nested events in generic domain and construct a new NEE dataset, namely ACE2005-Nest. Experimental results demonstrate that PerNee consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance on ACE2005-Nest, Genia11 and Genia13.

The temporal credit assignment problem is a central challenge in Reinforcement Learning (RL), concerned with attributing the appropriate influence to each actions in a trajectory for their ability to achieve a goal. However, when feedback is delayed and sparse, the learning signal is poor, and action evaluation becomes harder. Canonical solutions, such as reward shaping and options, require extensive domain knowledge and manual intervention, limiting their scalability and applicability. In this work, we lay the foundations for Credit Assignment with Language Models (CALM), a novel approach that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate credit assignment via reward shaping and options discovery. CALM uses LLMs to decompose a task into elementary subgoals and assess the achievement of these subgoals in state-action transitions. Every time an option terminates, a subgoal is achieved, and CALM provides an auxiliary reward. This additional reward signal can enhance the learning process when the task reward is sparse and delayed without the need for human-designed rewards. We provide a preliminary evaluation of CALM using a dataset of human-annotated demonstrations from MiniHack, suggesting that LLMs can be effective in assigning credit in zero-shot settings, without examples or LLM fine-tuning. Our preliminary results indicate that the knowledge of LLMs is a promising prior for credit assignment in RL, facilitating the transfer of human knowledge into value functions.

This paper focuses on temporal localization of actions in untrimmed videos. Existing methods typically train classifiers for a pre-defined list of actions and apply them in a sliding window fashion. However, activities in the wild consist of a wide combination of actors, actions and objects; it is difficult to design a proper activity list that meets users' needs. We propose to localize activities by natural language queries. Temporal Activity Localization via Language (TALL) is challenging as it requires: (1) suitable design of text and video representations to allow cross-modal matching of actions and language queries; (2) ability to locate actions accurately given features from sliding windows of limited granularity. We propose a novel Cross-modal Temporal Regression Localizer (CTRL) to jointly model text query and video clips, output alignment scores and action boundary regression results for candidate clips. For evaluation, we adopt TaCoS dataset, and build a new dataset for this task on top of Charades by adding sentence temporal annotations, called Charades-STA. We also build complex sentence queries in Charades-STA for test. Experimental results show that CTRL outperforms previous methods significantly on both datasets.

Existing benchmarks often highlight the remarkable performance achieved by state-of-the-art Multimodal Foundation Models (MFMs) in leveraging temporal context for video understanding. However, how well do the models truly perform visual temporal reasoning? Our study of existing benchmarks shows that this capability of MFMs is likely overestimated as many questions can be solved by using a single, few, or out-of-order frames. To systematically examine current visual temporal reasoning tasks, we propose three principles with corresponding metrics: (1) Multi-Frame Gain, (2) Frame Order Sensitivity, and (3) Frame Information Disparity. Following these principles, we introduce TOMATO, Temporal Reasoning Multimodal Evaluation, a novel benchmark crafted to rigorously assess MFMs' temporal reasoning capabilities in video understanding. TOMATO comprises 1,484 carefully curated, human-annotated questions spanning six tasks (i.e., action count, direction, rotation, shape & trend, velocity & frequency, and visual cues), applied to 1,417 videos, including 805 self-recorded and -generated videos, that encompass human-centric, real-world, and simulated scenarios. Our comprehensive evaluation reveals a human-model performance gap of 57.3% with the best-performing model. Moreover, our in-depth analysis uncovers more fundamental limitations beyond this gap in current MFMs. While they can accurately recognize events in isolated frames, they fail to interpret these frames as a continuous sequence. We believe TOMATO will serve as a crucial testbed for evaluating the next-generation MFMs and as a call to the community to develop AI systems capable of comprehending human world dynamics through the video modality.

Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is a high-dimensional process that requires updating numerous parameters. Therefore, it is often difficult to pinpoint the underlying learning mechanisms. To address this challenge, we propose to gain mechanistic insights into the phenomenon of abrupt learning by studying RNNs trained to perform diverse short-term memory tasks. In these tasks, RNN training begins with an initial search phase. Following a long period of plateau in accuracy, the values of the loss function suddenly drop, indicating abrupt learning. Analyzing the neural computation performed by these RNNs reveals geometric restructuring (GR) in their phase spaces prior to the drop. To promote these GR events, we introduce a temporal consistency regularization that accelerates (bioplausible) training, facilitates attractor formation, and enables efficient learning in strongly connected networks. Our findings offer testable predictions for neuroscientists and emphasize the need for goal-agnostic secondary mechanisms to facilitate learning in biological and artificial networks.

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Modern generative models demonstrate impressive capabilities, likely stemming from an ability to identify and manipulate abstract concepts underlying their training data. However, fundamental questions remain: what determines the concepts a model learns, the order in which it learns them, and its ability to manipulate those concepts? To address these questions, we propose analyzing a model's learning dynamics via a framework we call the concept space, where each axis represents an independent concept underlying the data generating process. By characterizing learning dynamics in this space, we identify how the speed at which a concept is learned, and hence the order of concept learning, is controlled by properties of the data we term concept signal. Further, we observe moments of sudden turns in the direction of a model's learning dynamics in concept space. Surprisingly, these points precisely correspond to the emergence of hidden capabilities, i.e., where latent interventions show the model possesses the capability to manipulate a concept, but these capabilities cannot yet be elicited via naive input prompting. While our results focus on synthetically defined toy datasets, we hypothesize a general claim on emergence of hidden capabilities may hold: generative models possess latent capabilities that emerge suddenly and consistently during training, though a model might not exhibit these capabilities under naive input prompting.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Multi-subject fMRI studies are challenging due to the high variability of both brain anatomy and functional brain topographies across participants. An effective way of aggregating multi-subject fMRI data is to extract a shared representation that filters out unwanted variability among subjects. Some recent work has implemented probabilistic models to extract a shared representation in task fMRI. In the present work, we improve upon these models by incorporating temporal information in the common latent structures. We introduce a new model, Shared Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (S-GPFA), that discovers shared latent trajectories and subject-specific functional topographies, while modelling temporal correlation in fMRI data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model in revealing ground truth latent structures using simulated data, and replicate experimental performance of time-segment matching and inter-subject similarity on the publicly available Raider and Sherlock datasets. We further test the utility of our model by analyzing its learned model parameters in the large multi-site SPINS dataset, on a social cognition task from participants with and without schizophrenia.

Time series is a collection of data instances that are ordered according to a time stamp. Stock prices, temperature, etc are examples of time series data in real life. Time series data are used for forecasting sales, predicting trends. Visualization is the process of visually representing data or the relationship between features of a data either in a two-dimensional plot or a three-dimensional plot. Visualizing the time series data constitutes an important part of the process for working with a time series dataset. Visualizing the data not only helps in the modelling process but it can also be used to identify trends and features that cause those trends. In this work, we take a real-life time series dataset and analyse how the target feature relates to other features of the dataset through visualization. From the work that has been carried out, we present an effective method of visualization for time series data which will be much useful for machine learning modelling with such datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) have accomplished remarkable reasoning performance in various domains. However, in the domain of reasoning tasks, we discover a frailty: LLMs are surprisingly brittle to the ordering of the premises, despite the fact that such ordering does not alter the underlying task. In particular, we observe that LLMs achieve the best performance when the premise order aligns with the context required in intermediate reasoning steps. For example, in deductive reasoning tasks, presenting the premises in the same order as the ground truth proof in the prompt (as opposed to random ordering) drastically increases the model's accuracy. We first examine the effect of premise ordering on deductive reasoning on a variety of LLMs, and our evaluation shows that permuting the premise order can cause a performance drop of over 30%. In addition, we release the benchmark R-GSM, based on GSM8K, to examine the ordering effect for mathematical problem-solving, and we again observe a significant drop in accuracy, relative to the original GSM8K benchmark.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

We study the problem of procedure planning in instructional videos, which aims to make a goal-oriented sequence of action steps given partial visual state observations. The motivation of this problem is to learn a structured and plannable state and action space. Recent works succeeded in sequence modeling of steps with only sequence-level annotations accessible during training, which overlooked the roles of states in the procedures. In this work, we point out that State CHangEs MAtter (SCHEMA) for procedure planning in instructional videos. We aim to establish a more structured state space by investigating the causal relations between steps and states in procedures. Specifically, we explicitly represent each step as state changes and track the state changes in procedures. For step representation, we leveraged the commonsense knowledge in large language models (LLMs) to describe the state changes of steps via our designed chain-of-thought prompting. For state change tracking, we align visual state observations with language state descriptions via cross-modal contrastive learning, and explicitly model the intermediate states of the procedure using LLM-generated state descriptions. Experiments on CrossTask, COIN, and NIV benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed SCHEMA model achieves state-of-the-art performance and obtains explainable visualizations.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Recent mainstream event argument extraction methods process each event in isolation, resulting in inefficient inference and ignoring the correlations among multiple events. To address these limitations, here we propose a multiple-event argument extraction model DEEIA (Dependency-guided Encoding and Event-specific Information Aggregation), capable of extracting arguments from all events within a document simultaneouslyThe proposed DEEIA model employs a multi-event prompt mechanism, comprising DE and EIA modules. The DE module is designed to improve the correlation between prompts and their corresponding event contexts, whereas the EIA module provides event-specific information to improve contextual understanding. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves new state-of-the-art performance on four public datasets (RAMS, WikiEvents, MLEE, and ACE05), while significantly saving the inference time compared to the baselines. Further analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modules.

Modality is the linguistic ability to describe events with added information such as how desirable, plausible, or feasible they are. Modality is important for many NLP downstream tasks such as the detection of hedging, uncertainty, speculation, and more. Previous studies that address modality detection in NLP often restrict modal expressions to a closed syntactic class, and the modal sense labels are vastly different across different studies, lacking an accepted standard. Furthermore, these senses are often analyzed independently of the events that they modify. This work builds on the theoretical foundations of the Georgetown Gradable Modal Expressions (GME) work by Rubinstein et al. (2013) to propose an event-based modality detection task where modal expressions can be words of any syntactic class and sense labels are drawn from a comprehensive taxonomy which harmonizes the modal concepts contributed by the different studies. We present experiments on the GME corpus aiming to detect and classify fine-grained modal concepts and associate them with their modified events. We show that detecting and classifying modal expressions is not only feasible, but also improves the detection of modal events in their own right.

To enable Large Language Models (LLMs) to function as conscious agents with generalizable reasoning capabilities, it is crucial that they possess the reasoning ability to comprehend situational changes (transitions) in distribution triggered by environmental factors or actions from other agents. Despite its fundamental significance, this ability remains underexplored due to the complexity of modeling infinite possible changes in an event and their associated distributions, coupled with the lack of benchmark data with situational transitions. Addressing these gaps, we propose a novel formulation of reasoning with distributional changes as a three-step discriminative process, termed as MetAphysical ReaSoning. We then introduce the first-ever benchmark, MARS, comprising three tasks corresponding to each step. These tasks systematically assess LLMs' capabilities in reasoning the plausibility of (i) changes in actions, (ii) states caused by changed actions, and (iii) situational transitions driven by changes in action. Extensive evaluations with 20 (L)LMs of varying sizes and methods indicate that all three tasks in this process pose significant challenges, even for state-of-the-art LLMs and LMs after fine-tuning. Further analyses reveal potential causes for the underperformance of LLMs and demonstrate that pre-training them on large-scale conceptualization taxonomies can potentially enhance their metaphysical reasoning capabilities. Our data and models are publicly accessible at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/MARS.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

Current advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) have predominantly focused on learning step-based policies that generate actions for each perceived state. While these methods efficiently leverage step information from environmental interaction, they often ignore the temporal correlation between actions, resulting in inefficient exploration and unsmooth trajectories that are challenging to implement on real hardware. Episodic RL (ERL) seeks to overcome these challenges by exploring in parameters space that capture the correlation of actions. However, these approaches typically compromise data efficiency, as they treat trajectories as opaque black boxes. In this work, we introduce a novel ERL algorithm, Temporally-Correlated Episodic RL (TCE), which effectively utilizes step information in episodic policy updates, opening the 'black box' in existing ERL methods while retaining the smooth and consistent exploration in parameter space. TCE synergistically combines the advantages of step-based and episodic RL, achieving comparable performance to recent ERL methods while maintaining data efficiency akin to state-of-the-art (SoTA) step-based RL.

Real-world networks, with their evolving relations, are best captured as temporal graphs. However, existing software libraries are largely designed for static graphs where the dynamic nature of temporal graphs is ignored. Bridging this gap, we introduce TGX, a Python package specially designed for analysis of temporal networks that encompasses an automated pipeline for data loading, data processing, and analysis of evolving graphs. TGX provides access to eleven built-in datasets and eight external Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) datasets as well as any novel datasets in the .csv format. Beyond data loading, TGX facilitates data processing functionalities such as discretization of temporal graphs and node subsampling to accelerate working with larger datasets. For comprehensive investigation, TGX offers network analysis by providing a diverse set of measures, including average node degree and the evolving number of nodes and edges per timestamp. Additionally, the package consolidates meaningful visualization plots indicating the evolution of temporal patterns, such as Temporal Edge Appearance (TEA) and Temporal Edge Trafficc (TET) plots. The TGX package is a robust tool for examining the features of temporal graphs and can be used in various areas like studying social networks, citation networks, and tracking user interactions. We plan to continuously support and update TGX based on community feedback. TGX is publicly available on: https://github.com/ComplexData-MILA/TGX.

Temporal Action Detection (TAD) focuses on detecting pre-defined actions, while Moment Retrieval (MR) aims to identify the events described by open-ended natural language within untrimmed videos. Despite that they focus on different events, we observe they have a significant connection. For instance, most descriptions in MR involve multiple actions from TAD. In this paper, we aim to investigate the potential synergy between TAD and MR. Firstly, we propose a unified architecture, termed Unified Moment Detection (UniMD), for both TAD and MR. It transforms the inputs of the two tasks, namely actions for TAD or events for MR, into a common embedding space, and utilizes two novel query-dependent decoders to generate a uniform output of classification score and temporal segments. Secondly, we explore the efficacy of two task fusion learning approaches, pre-training and co-training, in order to enhance the mutual benefits between TAD and MR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed task fusion learning scheme enables the two tasks to help each other and outperform the separately trained counterparts. Impressively, UniMD achieves state-of-the-art results on three paired datasets Ego4D, Charades-STA, and ActivityNet. Our code is available at https://github.com/yingsen1/UniMD.

Video large language models (Video-LLMs) can temporally ground language queries and retrieve video moments. Yet, such temporal comprehension capabilities are neither well-studied nor understood. So we conduct a study on prediction consistency -- a key indicator for robustness and trustworthiness of temporal grounding. After the model identifies an initial moment within the video content, we apply a series of probes to check if the model's responses align with this initial grounding as an indicator of reliable comprehension. Our results reveal that current Video-LLMs are sensitive to variations in video contents, language queries, and task settings, unveiling severe deficiencies in maintaining consistency. We further explore common prompting and instruction-tuning methods as potential solutions, but find that their improvements are often unstable. To that end, we propose event temporal verification tuning that explicitly accounts for consistency, and demonstrate significant improvements for both grounding and consistency. Our data and code will be available at https://github.com/minjoong507/Consistency-of-Video-LLM.

Most prior art in visual understanding relies solely on analyzing the "what" (e.g., event recognition) and "where" (e.g., event localization), which in some cases, fails to describe correct contextual relationships between events or leads to incorrect underlying visual attention. Part of what defines us as human and fundamentally different from machines is our instinct to seek causality behind any association, say an event Y that happened as a direct result of event X. To this end, we propose iPerceive, a framework capable of understanding the "why" between events in a video by building a common-sense knowledge base using contextual cues to infer causal relationships between objects in the video. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique using the dense video captioning (DVC) and video question answering (VideoQA) tasks. Furthermore, while most prior work in DVC and VideoQA relies solely on visual information, other modalities such as audio and speech are vital for a human observer's perception of an environment. We formulate DVC and VideoQA tasks as machine translation problems that utilize multiple modalities. By evaluating the performance of iPerceive DVC and iPerceive VideoQA on the ActivityNet Captions and TVQA datasets respectively, we show that our approach furthers the state-of-the-art. Code and samples are available at: iperceive.amanchadha.com.

Recently, there is a surge in interest surrounding video large language models (Video LLMs). However, existing benchmarks fail to provide a comprehensive feedback on the temporal perception ability of Video LLMs. On the one hand, most of them are unable to distinguish between different temporal aspects (e.g., speed, direction) and thus cannot reflect the nuanced performance on these specific aspects. On the other hand, they are limited in the diversity of task formats (e.g., only multi-choice QA), which hinders the understanding of how temporal perception performance may vary across different types of tasks. Motivated by these two problems, we propose the TempCompass benchmark, which introduces a diversity of temporal aspects and task formats. To collect high-quality test data, we devise two novel strategies: (1) In video collection, we construct conflicting videos that share the same static content but differ in a specific temporal aspect, which prevents Video LLMs from leveraging single-frame bias or language priors. (2) To collect the task instructions, we propose a paradigm where humans first annotate meta-information for a video and then an LLM generates the instruction. We also design an LLM-based approach to automatically and accurately evaluate the responses from Video LLMs. Based on TempCompass, we comprehensively evaluate 8 state-of-the-art (SOTA) Video LLMs and 3 Image LLMs, and reveal the discerning fact that these models exhibit notably poor temporal perception ability. The data and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/llyx97/TempCompass.

The ability to perceive how objects change over time is a crucial ingredient in human intelligence. However, current benchmarks cannot faithfully reflect the temporal understanding abilities of video-language models (VidLMs) due to the existence of static visual shortcuts. To remedy this issue, we present VITATECS, a diagnostic VIdeo-Text dAtaset for the evaluation of TEmporal Concept underStanding. Specifically, we first introduce a fine-grained taxonomy of temporal concepts in natural language in order to diagnose the capability of VidLMs to comprehend different temporal aspects. Furthermore, to disentangle the correlation between static and temporal information, we generate counterfactual video descriptions that differ from the original one only in the specified temporal aspect. We employ a semi-automatic data collection framework using large language models and human-in-the-loop annotation to obtain high-quality counterfactual descriptions efficiently. Evaluation of representative video-language understanding models confirms their deficiency in temporal understanding, revealing the need for greater emphasis on the temporal elements in video-language research.

While direction of arrival (DOA) of sound events is generally estimated from multichannel audio data recorded in a microphone array, sound events usually derive from visually perceptible source objects, e.g., sounds of footsteps come from the feet of a walker. This paper proposes an audio-visual sound event localization and detection (SELD) task, which uses multichannel audio and video information to estimate the temporal activation and DOA of target sound events. Audio-visual SELD systems can detect and localize sound events using signals from a microphone array and audio-visual correspondence. We also introduce an audio-visual dataset, Sony-TAu Realistic Spatial Soundscapes 2023 (STARSS23), which consists of multichannel audio data recorded with a microphone array, video data, and spatiotemporal annotation of sound events. Sound scenes in STARSS23 are recorded with instructions, which guide recording participants to ensure adequate activity and occurrences of sound events. STARSS23 also serves human-annotated temporal activation labels and human-confirmed DOA labels, which are based on tracking results of a motion capture system. Our benchmark results demonstrate the benefits of using visual object positions in audio-visual SELD tasks. The data is available at https://zenodo.org/record/7880637.

Current event detection models under super-vised learning settings fail to transfer to newevent types. Few-shot learning has not beenexplored in event detection even though it al-lows a model to perform well with high gener-alization on new event types. In this work, weformulate event detection as a few-shot learn-ing problem to enable to extend event detec-tion to new event types. We propose two novelloss factors that matching examples in the sup-port set to provide more training signals to themodel. Moreover, these training signals can beapplied in many metric-based few-shot learn-ing models. Our extensive experiments on theACE-2005 dataset (under a few-shot learningsetting) show that the proposed method can im-prove the performance of few-shot learning

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

The static synaptic connectivity of neuronal circuits stands in direct contrast to the dynamics of their function. As in changing community interactions, different neurons can participate actively in various combinations to effect behaviors at different times. We introduce an unsupervised approach to learn the dynamic affinities between neurons in live, behaving animals, and to reveal which communities form among neurons at different times. The inference occurs in two major steps. First, pairwise non-linear affinities between neuronal traces from brain-wide calcium activity are organized by non-negative tensor factorization (NTF). Each factor specifies which groups of neurons are most likely interacting for an inferred interval in time, and for which animals. Finally, a generative model that allows for weighted community detection is applied to the functional motifs produced by NTF to reveal a dynamic functional connectome. Since time codes the different experimental variables (e.g., application of chemical stimuli), this provides an atlas of neural motifs active during separate stages of an experiment (e.g., stimulus application or spontaneous behaviors). Results from our analysis are experimentally validated, confirming that our method is able to robustly predict causal interactions between neurons to generate behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/dyballa/dynamic-connectomes.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Understanding events in texts is a core objective of natural language understanding, which requires detecting event occurrences, extracting event arguments, and analyzing inter-event relationships. However, due to the annotation challenges brought by task complexity, a large-scale dataset covering the full process of event understanding has long been absent. In this paper, we introduce MAVEN-Arg, which augments MAVEN datasets with event argument annotations, making the first all-in-one dataset supporting event detection, event argument extraction (EAE), and event relation extraction. As an EAE benchmark, MAVEN-Arg offers three main advantages: (1) a comprehensive schema covering 162 event types and 612 argument roles, all with expert-written definitions and examples; (2) a large data scale, containing 98,591 events and 290,613 arguments obtained with laborious human annotation; (3) the exhaustive annotation supporting all task variants of EAE, which annotates both entity and non-entity event arguments in document level. Experiments indicate that MAVEN-Arg is quite challenging for both fine-tuned EAE models and proprietary large language models (LLMs). Furthermore, to demonstrate the benefits of an all-in-one dataset, we preliminarily explore a potential application, future event prediction, with LLMs. MAVEN-Arg and our code can be obtained from https://github.com/THU-KEG/MAVEN-Argument.

Explaining predictions based on multivariate time series data carries the additional difficulty of handling not only multiple features, but also time dependencies. It matters not only what happened, but also when, and the same feature could have a very different impact on a prediction depending on this time information. Previous work has used perturbation-based saliency methods to tackle this issue, perturbing an input using a trainable mask to discover which features at which times are driving the predictions. However these methods introduce fixed perturbations, inspired from similar methods on static data, while there seems to be little motivation to do so on temporal data. In this work, we aim to explain predictions by learning not only masks, but also associated perturbations. We empirically show that learning these perturbations significantly improves the quality of these explanations on time series data.

Temporal hypergraphs provide a powerful paradigm for modeling time-dependent, higher-order interactions in complex systems. Representation learning for hypergraphs is essential for extracting patterns of the higher-order interactions that are critically important in real-world problems in social network analysis, neuroscience, finance, etc. However, existing methods are typically designed only for specific tasks or static hypergraphs. We present CAT-Walk, an inductive method that learns the underlying dynamic laws that govern the temporal and structural processes underlying a temporal hypergraph. CAT-Walk introduces a temporal, higher-order walk on hypergraphs, SetWalk, that extracts higher-order causal patterns. CAT-Walk uses a novel adaptive and permutation invariant pooling strategy, SetMixer, along with a set-based anonymization process that hides the identity of hyperedges. Finally, we present a simple yet effective neural network model to encode hyperedges. Our evaluation on 10 hypergraph benchmark datasets shows that CAT-Walk attains outstanding performance on temporal hyperedge prediction benchmarks in both inductive and transductive settings. It also shows competitive performance with state-of-the-art methods for node classification. (https://github.com/ubc-systopia/CATWalk)

The unprecedented surge in video data production in recent years necessitates efficient tools to extract meaningful frames from videos for downstream tasks. Long-term temporal reasoning is a key desideratum for frame retrieval systems. While state-of-the-art foundation models, like VideoLLaMA and ViCLIP, are proficient in short-term semantic understanding, they surprisingly fail at long-term reasoning across frames. A key reason for this failure is that they intertwine per-frame perception and temporal reasoning into a single deep network. Hence, decoupling but co-designing semantic understanding and temporal reasoning is essential for efficient scene identification. We propose a system that leverages vision-language models for semantic understanding of individual frames but effectively reasons about the long-term evolution of events using state machines and temporal logic (TL) formulae that inherently capture memory. Our TL-based reasoning improves the F1 score of complex event identification by 9-15% compared to benchmarks that use GPT4 for reasoning on state-of-the-art self-driving datasets such as Waymo and NuScenes.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

Time-series representation learning is a fundamental task for time-series analysis. While significant progress has been made to achieve accurate representations for downstream applications, the learned representations often lack interpretability and do not expose semantic meanings. Different from previous efforts on the entangled feature space, we aim to extract the semantic-rich temporal correlations in the latent interpretable factorized representation of the data. Motivated by the success of disentangled representation learning in computer vision, we study the possibility of learning semantic-rich time-series representations, which remains unexplored due to three main challenges: 1) sequential data structure introduces complex temporal correlations and makes the latent representations hard to interpret, 2) sequential models suffer from KL vanishing problem, and 3) interpretable semantic concepts for time-series often rely on multiple factors instead of individuals. To bridge the gap, we propose Disentangle Time Series (DTS), a novel disentanglement enhancement framework for sequential data. Specifically, to generate hierarchical semantic concepts as the interpretable and disentangled representation of time-series, DTS introduces multi-level disentanglement strategies by covering both individual latent factors and group semantic segments. We further theoretically show how to alleviate the KL vanishing problem: DTS introduces a mutual information maximization term, while preserving a heavier penalty on the total correlation and the dimension-wise KL to keep the disentanglement property. Experimental results on various real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that the representations learned by DTS achieve superior performance in downstream applications, with high interpretability of semantic concepts.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is rapidly reaching and surpassing human-level control capabilities. However, state-of-the-art RL algorithms often require timesteps and reaction times significantly faster than human capabilities, which is impractical in real-world settings and typically necessitates specialized hardware. Such speeds are difficult to achieve in the real world and often requires specialized hardware. We introduce Sequence Reinforcement Learning (SRL), an RL algorithm designed to produce a sequence of actions for a given input state, enabling effective control at lower decision frequencies. SRL addresses the challenges of learning action sequences by employing both a model and an actor-critic architecture operating at different temporal scales. We propose a "temporal recall" mechanism, where the critic uses the model to estimate intermediate states between primitive actions, providing a learning signal for each individual action within the sequence. Once training is complete, the actor can generate action sequences independently of the model, achieving model-free control at a slower frequency. We evaluate SRL on a suite of continuous control tasks, demonstrating that it achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art algorithms while significantly reducing actor sample complexity. To better assess performance across varying decision frequencies, we introduce the Frequency-Averaged Score (FAS) metric. Our results show that SRL significantly outperforms traditional RL algorithms in terms of FAS, making it particularly suitable for applications requiring variable decision frequencies. Additionally, we compare SRL with model-based online planning, showing that SRL achieves superior FAS while leveraging the same model during training that online planners use for planning.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

Reinforcement learning agents often forget details of the past, especially after delays or distractor tasks. Agents with common memory architectures struggle to recall and integrate across multiple timesteps of a past event, or even to recall the details of a single timestep that is followed by distractor tasks. To address these limitations, we propose a Hierarchical Chunk Attention Memory (HCAM), which helps agents to remember the past in detail. HCAM stores memories by dividing the past into chunks, and recalls by first performing high-level attention over coarse summaries of the chunks, and then performing detailed attention within only the most relevant chunks. An agent with HCAM can therefore "mentally time-travel" -- remember past events in detail without attending to all intervening events. We show that agents with HCAM substantially outperform agents with other memory architectures at tasks requiring long-term recall, retention, or reasoning over memory. These include recalling where an object is hidden in a 3D environment, rapidly learning to navigate efficiently in a new neighborhood, and rapidly learning and retaining new object names. Agents with HCAM can extrapolate to task sequences much longer than they were trained on, and can even generalize zero-shot from a meta-learning setting to maintaining knowledge across episodes. HCAM improves agent sample efficiency, generalization, and generality (by solving tasks that previously required specialized architectures). Our work is a step towards agents that can learn, interact, and adapt in complex and temporally-extended environments.

Visual events are a composition of temporal actions involving actors spatially interacting with objects. When developing computer vision models that can reason about compositional spatio-temporal events, we need benchmarks that can analyze progress and uncover shortcomings. Existing video question answering benchmarks are useful, but they often conflate multiple sources of error into one accuracy metric and have strong biases that models can exploit, making it difficult to pinpoint model weaknesses. We present Action Genome Question Answering (AGQA), a new benchmark for compositional spatio-temporal reasoning. AGQA contains 192M unbalanced question answer pairs for 9.6K videos. We also provide a balanced subset of 3.9M question answer pairs, 3 orders of magnitude larger than existing benchmarks, that minimizes bias by balancing the answer distributions and types of question structures. Although human evaluators marked 86.02% of our question-answer pairs as correct, the best model achieves only 47.74% accuracy. In addition, AGQA introduces multiple training/test splits to test for various reasoning abilities, including generalization to novel compositions, to indirect references, and to more compositional steps. Using AGQA, we evaluate modern visual reasoning systems, demonstrating that the best models barely perform better than non-visual baselines exploiting linguistic biases and that none of the existing models generalize to novel compositions unseen during training.

The pursuit of controllability as a higher standard of visual content creation has yielded remarkable progress in customizable image synthesis. However, achieving controllable video synthesis remains challenging due to the large variation of temporal dynamics and the requirement of cross-frame temporal consistency. Based on the paradigm of compositional generation, this work presents VideoComposer that allows users to flexibly compose a video with textual conditions, spatial conditions, and more importantly temporal conditions. Specifically, considering the characteristic of video data, we introduce the motion vector from compressed videos as an explicit control signal to provide guidance regarding temporal dynamics. In addition, we develop a Spatio-Temporal Condition encoder (STC-encoder) that serves as a unified interface to effectively incorporate the spatial and temporal relations of sequential inputs, with which the model could make better use of temporal conditions and hence achieve higher inter-frame consistency. Extensive experimental results suggest that VideoComposer is able to control the spatial and temporal patterns simultaneously within a synthesized video in various forms, such as text description, sketch sequence, reference video, or even simply hand-crafted motions. The code and models will be publicly available at https://videocomposer.github.io.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

Sound design involves creatively selecting, recording, and editing sound effects for various media like cinema, video games, and virtual/augmented reality. One of the most time-consuming steps when designing sound is synchronizing audio with video. In some cases, environmental recordings from video shoots are available, which can aid in the process. However, in video games and animations, no reference audio exists, requiring manual annotation of event timings from the video. We propose a system to extract repetitive actions onsets from a video, which are then used - in conjunction with audio or textual embeddings - to condition a diffusion model trained to generate a new synchronized sound effects audio track. In this way, we leave complete creative control to the sound designer while removing the burden of synchronization with video. Furthermore, editing the onset track or changing the conditioning embedding requires much less effort than editing the audio track itself, simplifying the sonification process. We provide sound examples, source code, and pretrained models to faciliate reproducibility

The deep neural nets of modern artificial intelligence (AI) have not achieved defining features of biological intelligence, including abstraction, causal learning, and energy-efficiency. While scaling to larger models has delivered performance improvements for current applications, more brain-like capacities may demand new theories, models, and methods for designing artificial learning systems. Here, we argue that this opportunity to reassess insights from the brain should stimulate cooperation between AI research and theory-driven computational neuroscience (CN). To motivate a brain basis of neural computation, we present a dynamical view of intelligence from which we elaborate concepts of sparsity in network structure, temporal dynamics, and interactive learning. In particular, we suggest that temporal dynamics, as expressed through neural synchrony, nested oscillations, and flexible sequences, provide a rich computational layer for reading and updating hierarchical models distributed in long-term memory networks. Moreover, embracing agent-centered paradigms in AI and CN will accelerate our understanding of the complex dynamics and behaviors that build useful world models. A convergence of AI/CN theories and objectives will reveal dynamical principles of intelligence for brains and engineered learning systems. This article was inspired by our symposium on dynamical neuroscience and machine learning at the 6th Annual US/NIH BRAIN Initiative Investigators Meeting.

In numerous artificial intelligence applications, the collaborative efforts of multiple intelligent agents are imperative for the successful attainment of target objectives. To enhance coordination among these agents, a distributed communication framework is often employed. However, indiscriminate information sharing among all agents can be resource-intensive, and the adoption of manually pre-defined communication architectures imposes constraints on inter-agent communication, thus limiting the potential for effective collaboration. Moreover, the communication framework often remains static during inference, which may result in sustained high resource consumption, as in most cases, only key decisions necessitate information sharing among agents. In this study, we introduce a novel approach wherein we conceptualize the communication architecture among agents as a learnable graph. We formulate this problem as the task of determining the communication graph while enabling the architecture parameters to update normally, thus necessitating a bi-level optimization process. Utilizing continuous relaxation of the graph representation and incorporating attention units, our proposed approach, CommFormer, efficiently optimizes the communication graph and concurrently refines architectural parameters through gradient descent in an end-to-end manner. Additionally, we introduce a temporal gating mechanism for each agent, enabling dynamic decisions on whether to receive shared information at a given time, based on current observations, thus improving decision-making efficiency. Extensive experiments on a variety of cooperative tasks substantiate the robustness of our model across diverse cooperative scenarios, where agents are able to develop more coordinated and sophisticated strategies regardless of changes in the number of agents.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

In Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes, integrating an agent's history into memory poses a significant challenge for decision-making. Traditional imitation learning, relying on observation-action pairs for expert demonstrations, fails to capture the expert's memory mechanisms used in decision-making. To capture memory processes as demonstrations, we introduce the concept of memory dependency pairs (p, q) indicating that events at time p are recalled for decision-making at time q. We introduce AttentionTuner to leverage memory dependency pairs in Transformers and find significant improvements across several tasks compared to standard Transformers when evaluated on Memory Gym and the Long-term Memory Benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/WilliamYue37/AttentionTuner.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

Knowing how to end and resume conversations over time is a natural part of communication, allowing for discussions to span weeks, months, or years. The duration of gaps between conversations dictates which topics are relevant and which questions to ask, and dialogue systems which do not explicitly model time may generate responses that are unnatural. In this work we explore the idea of making dialogue models aware of time, and present GapChat, a multi-session dialogue dataset in which the time between each session varies. While the dataset is constructed in real-time, progress on events in speakers' lives is simulated in order to create realistic dialogues occurring across a long timespan. We expose time information to the model and compare different representations of time and event progress. In human evaluation we show that time-aware models perform better in metrics that judge the relevance of the chosen topics and the information gained from the conversation.

Video-language pre-trained models have shown remarkable success in guiding video question-answering (VideoQA) tasks. However, due to the length of video sequences, training large-scale video-based models incurs considerably higher costs than training image-based ones. This motivates us to leverage the knowledge from image-based pretraining, despite the obvious gaps between image and video domains. To bridge these gaps, in this paper, we propose Tem-Adapter, which enables the learning of temporal dynamics and complex semantics by a visual Temporal Aligner and a textual Semantic Aligner. Unlike conventional pretrained knowledge adaptation methods that only concentrate on the downstream task objective, the Temporal Aligner introduces an extra language-guided autoregressive task aimed at facilitating the learning of temporal dependencies, with the objective of predicting future states based on historical clues and language guidance that describes event progression. Besides, to reduce the semantic gap and adapt the textual representation for better event description, we introduce a Semantic Aligner that first designs a template to fuse question and answer pairs as event descriptions and then learns a Transformer decoder with the whole video sequence as guidance for refinement. We evaluate Tem-Adapter and different pre-train transferring methods on two VideoQA benchmarks, and the significant performance improvement demonstrates the effectiveness of our method.

There has been a recent surge in interest in the application of artificial intelligence to automated trading. Reinforcement learning has been applied to single- and multi-instrument use cases, such as market making or portfolio management. This paper proposes a new approach to framing cryptocurrency market making as a reinforcement learning challenge by introducing an event-based environment wherein an event is defined as a change in price greater or less than a given threshold, as opposed to by tick or time-based events (e.g., every minute, hour, day, etc.). Two policy-based agents are trained to learn a market making trading strategy using eight days of training data and evaluate their performance using 30 days of testing data. Limit order book data recorded from Bitmex exchange is used to validate this approach, which demonstrates improved profit and stability compared to a time-based approach for both agents when using a simple multi-layer perceptron neural network for function approximation and seven different reward functions.

Understanding time series is crucial for its application in real-world scenarios. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly applied to time series tasks, leveraging their strong language capabilities to enhance various applications. However, research on multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) for time series understanding and reasoning remains limited, primarily due to the scarcity of high-quality datasets that align time series with textual information. This paper introduces ChatTS, a novel MLLM designed for time series analysis. ChatTS treats time series as a modality, similar to how vision MLLMs process images, enabling it to perform both understanding and reasoning with time series. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose an attribute-based method for generating synthetic time series with detailed attribute descriptions. We further introduce Time Series Evol-Instruct, a novel approach that generates diverse time series Q&As, enhancing the model's reasoning capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, ChatTS is the first MLLM that takes multivariate time series as input, which is fine-tuned exclusively on synthetic datasets. We evaluate its performance using benchmark datasets with real-world data, including six alignment tasks and four reasoning tasks. Our results show that ChatTS significantly outperforms existing vision-based MLLMs (e.g., GPT-4o) and text/agent-based LLMs, achieving a 46.0% improvement in alignment tasks and a 25.8% improvement in reasoning tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) learn temporal concepts from the co-occurrence of related tokens in a sequence. Compared with conventional text generation, temporal reasoning, which reaches a conclusion based on mathematical, logical and commonsense knowledge, is more challenging. In this paper, we propose TempGraph-LLM, a new paradigm towards text-based temporal reasoning. To be specific, we first teach LLMs to translate the context into a temporal graph. A synthetic dataset, which is fully controllable and requires minimal supervision, is constructed for pre-training on this task. We prove in experiments that LLMs benefit from the pre-training on other tasks. On top of that, we guide LLMs to perform symbolic reasoning with the strategies of Chain of Thoughts (CoTs) bootstrapping and special data augmentation. We observe that CoTs with symbolic reasoning bring more consistent and reliable results than those using free text.

Videos serve as a powerful medium to convey ideas, tell stories, and provide detailed instructions, especially through long-format tutorials. Such tutorials are valuable for learning new skills at one's own pace, yet they can be overwhelming due to their length and dense content. Viewers often seek specific information, like precise measurements or step-by-step execution details, making it essential to extract and summarize key segments efficiently. An intelligent, time-sensitive video assistant capable of summarizing and detecting highlights in long videos is highly sought after. Recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models offer promising solutions to develop such an assistant. Our research explores the use of multimodal models to enhance video summarization and step-by-step instruction generation within specific domains. These models need to understand temporal events and relationships among actions across video frames. Our approach focuses on fine-tuning TimeChat to improve its performance in specific domains: cooking and medical procedures. By training the model on domain-specific datasets like Tasty for cooking and MedVidQA for medical procedures, we aim to enhance its ability to generate concise, accurate summaries of instructional videos. We curate and restructure these datasets to create high-quality video-centric instruction data. Our findings indicate that when finetuned on domain-specific procedural data, TimeChat can significantly improve the extraction and summarization of key instructional steps in long-format videos. This research demonstrates the potential of specialized multimodal models to assist with practical tasks by providing personalized, step-by-step guidance tailored to the unique aspects of each domain.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

Temporal action abstractions, along with belief state representations, are a powerful knowledge sharing mechanism for sequential decision making. In this work, we propose a novel view that treats inducing temporal action abstractions as a sequence compression problem. To do so, we bring a subtle but critical component of LLM training pipelines -- input tokenization via byte pair encoding (BPE) -- to the seemingly distant task of learning skills of variable time span in continuous control domains. We introduce an approach called Primitive Sequence Encoding (PRISE) that combines continuous action quantization with BPE to learn powerful action abstractions. We empirically show that high-level skills discovered by PRISE from a multitask set of robotic manipulation demonstrations significantly boost the performance of both multitask imitation learning as well as few-shot imitation learning on unseen tasks. Our code will be released at https://github.com/FrankZheng2022/PRISE.

Modern conversational agents, including anime-themed chatbots, are frequently reactive and personality-driven but fail to capture the dynamic nature of human interactions. We propose an event-driven dialogue framework to address these limitations by embedding dynamic events in conversation prompts and fine-tuning models on character-specific data. Evaluations on GPT-4 and comparisons with industry-leading baselines demonstrate that event-driven prompts significantly improve conversational engagement and naturalness while reducing hallucinations. This paper explores the application of this approach in creating lifelike chatbot interactions within the context of Honkai: Star Rail, showcasing the potential for dynamic event-based systems to transform role-playing and interactive dialogue.

Understanding time from visual representations is a fundamental cognitive skill, yet it remains a challenge for multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In this work, we investigate the capabilities of MLLMs in interpreting time and date through analogue clocks and yearly calendars. To facilitate this, we curated a structured dataset comprising two subsets: 1) ClockQA, which comprises various types of clock styles-standard, black-dial, no-second-hand, Roman numeral, and arrow-hand clocks-paired with time related questions; and 2) CalendarQA, which consists of yearly calendar images with questions ranging from commonly known dates (e.g., Christmas, New Year's Day) to computationally derived ones (e.g., the 100th or 153rd day of the year). We aim to analyse how MLLMs can perform visual recognition, numerical reasoning, and temporal inference when presented with time-related visual data. Our evaluations show that despite recent advancements, reliably understanding time remains a significant challenge for MLLMs.

In this work, we introduce Vid2Seq, a multi-modal single-stage dense event captioning model pretrained on narrated videos which are readily-available at scale. The Vid2Seq architecture augments a language model with special time tokens, allowing it to seamlessly predict event boundaries and textual descriptions in the same output sequence. Such a unified model requires large-scale training data, which is not available in current annotated datasets. We show that it is possible to leverage unlabeled narrated videos for dense video captioning, by reformulating sentence boundaries of transcribed speech as pseudo event boundaries, and using the transcribed speech sentences as pseudo event captions. The resulting Vid2Seq model pretrained on the YT-Temporal-1B dataset improves the state of the art on a variety of dense video captioning benchmarks including YouCook2, ViTT and ActivityNet Captions. Vid2Seq also generalizes well to the tasks of video paragraph captioning and video clip captioning, and to few-shot settings. Our code is publicly available at https://antoyang.github.io/vid2seq.html.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have shown much promise across a variety of applications. However, issues such as scalability, explainability, and Markovian assumptions limit its applicability in certain domains. We observe that many of these shortcomings emanate from the simulator as opposed to the RL training algorithms themselves. As such, we propose a semantic proxy for simulation based on a temporal extension to annotated logic. In comparison with two high-fidelity simulators, we show up to three orders of magnitude speed-up while preserving the quality of policy learned. In addition, we show the ability to model and leverage non-Markovian dynamics and instantaneous actions while providing an explainable trace describing the outcomes of the agent actions.

Goal representation affects the performance of Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (HRL) algorithms by decomposing the complex learning problem into easier subtasks. Recent studies show that representations that preserve temporally abstract environment dynamics are successful in solving difficult problems and provide theoretical guarantees for optimality. These methods however cannot scale to tasks where environment dynamics increase in complexity i.e. the temporally abstract transition relations depend on larger number of variables. On the other hand, other efforts have tried to use spatial abstraction to mitigate the previous issues. Their limitations include scalability to high dimensional environments and dependency on prior knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel three-layer HRL algorithm that introduces, at different levels of the hierarchy, both a spatial and a temporal goal abstraction. We provide a theoretical study of the regret bounds of the learned policies. We evaluate the approach on complex continuous control tasks, demonstrating the effectiveness of spatial and temporal abstractions learned by this approach.

We study the problem of temporal-difference-based policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. In particular, we analyse the use of a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm, quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), for this task. We reach the surprising conclusion that even if a practitioner has no interest in the return distribution beyond the mean, QTD (which learns predictions about the full distribution of returns) may offer performance superior to approaches such as classical TD learning, which predict only the mean return, even in the tabular setting.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. These approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and introduce mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

In the heart of "rhythm games" - games where players must perform actions in sync with a piece of music - are "charts", the directives to be given to players. We newly formulate chart generation as a sequence generation task and train a Transformer using a large dataset. We also introduce tempo-informed preprocessing and training procedures, some of which are suggested to be integral for a successful training. Our model is found to outperform the baselines on a large dataset, and is also found to benefit from pretraining and finetuning.

In the video-language domain, recent works in leveraging zero-shot Large Language Model-based reasoning for video understanding have become competitive challengers to previous end-to-end models. However, long video understanding presents unique challenges due to the complexity of reasoning over extended timespans, even for zero-shot LLM-based approaches. The challenge of information redundancy in long videos prompts the question of what specific information is essential for large language models (LLMs) and how to leverage them for complex spatial-temporal reasoning in long-form video analysis. We propose a framework VideoINSTA, i.e. INformative Spatial-TemporAl Reasoning for zero-shot long-form video understanding. VideoINSTA contributes (1) a zero-shot framework for long video understanding using LLMs; (2) an event-based temporal reasoning and content-based spatial reasoning approach for LLMs to reason over spatial-temporal information in videos; (3) a self-reflective information reasoning scheme balancing temporal factors based on information sufficiency and prediction confidence. Our model significantly improves the state-of-the-art on three long video question-answering benchmarks: EgoSchema, NextQA, and IntentQA, and the open question answering dataset ActivityNetQA. The code is released here: https://github.com/mayhugotong/VideoINSTA.

This short note is written for rapid communication of long context training and to share the idea of how to train it with low memory usage. In the note, we generalize the attention algorithm and neural network of Generative Pre-Trained Transformers and reinterpret it in Path integral formalism. First, the role of the transformer is understood as the time evolution of the token state and second, it is suggested that the all key-token states in the same time as the query-token can attend to the attention with the query token states. As a result of the repetitive time evolution, it is discussed that the token states in the past sequence meats the token states in the present sequence so that the attention between separated sequences becomes possible for maintaining infinite contextual information just by using low memory for limited size of sequence. For the experiment, the 12 input token window size was taken and one GPU with 24GB memory was used for the pre-training. It was confirmed that more than 150 length context is preserved. The sampling result of the training, the code and the other details will be included in the revised version of this note later.

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

Modern techniques like contrastive learning have been effectively used in many areas, including computer vision, natural language processing, and graph-structured data. Creating positive examples that assist the model in learning robust and discriminative representations is a crucial stage in contrastive learning approaches. Usually, preset human intuition directs the selection of relevant data augmentations. Due to patterns that are easily recognized by humans, this rule of thumb works well in the vision and language domains. However, it is impractical to visually inspect the temporal structures in time series. The diversity of time series augmentations at both the dataset and instance levels makes it difficult to choose meaningful augmentations on the fly. In this study, we address this gap by analyzing time series data augmentation using information theory and summarizing the most commonly adopted augmentations in a unified format. We then propose a contrastive learning framework with parametric augmentation, AutoTCL, which can be adaptively employed to support time series representation learning. The proposed approach is encoder-agnostic, allowing it to be seamlessly integrated with different backbone encoders. Experiments on univariate forecasting tasks demonstrate the highly competitive results of our method, with an average 6.5\% reduction in MSE and 4.7\% in MAE over the leading baselines. In classification tasks, AutoTCL achieves a 1.2% increase in average accuracy.

In everyday communication, humans frequently use speech and gestures to refer to specific areas or objects, a process known as Referential Dialogue (RD). While prior studies have investigated RD through Large Language Models (LLMs) or Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) in static contexts, the exploration of Temporal Referential Dialogue (TRD) within audio-visual media remains limited. Two primary challenges hinder progress in this field: (1) the absence of comprehensive, untrimmed audio-visual video datasets with precise temporal annotations, and (2) the need for methods to integrate complex temporal auditory and visual cues effectively. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel framework to generate PU-VALOR, an extensive audio-visual dataset comprising over 114,000 untrimmed videos with accurate temporal demarcations. We also present AVicuna, featuring an Audio-Visual Tokens Interleaver (AVTI) that ensures the temporal alignment of audio-visual information. Additionally, we develop the A5-222K dataset, encompassing more than 200,000 audio-text pairings, to facilitate the audio and text alignments. Our experiments demonstrate that AVicuna can effectively handle TRD in audio-visual videos and achieve state-of-the-art performance on various audio-visual video understanding tasks, particularly in untrimmed videos. We further investigate the optimal audio-interleaving rate for interleaved audio-visual inputs, which maximizes performance on the Audio-Visual Event Dense Localization task.

Automated plot generation is the challenge of generating a sequence of events that will be perceived by readers as the plot of a coherent story. Traditional symbolic planners plan a story from a goal state and guarantee logical causal plot coherence but rely on a library of hand-crafted actions with their preconditions and effects. This closed world setting limits the length and diversity of what symbolic planners can generate. On the other hand, pre-trained neural language models can generate stories with great diversity, while being generally incapable of ending a story in a specified manner and can have trouble maintaining coherence. In this paper, we present an approach to story plot generation that unifies causal planning with neural language models. We propose to use commonsense knowledge extracted from large language models to recursively expand a story plot in a backward chaining fashion. Specifically, our system infers the preconditions for events in the story and then events that will cause those conditions to become true. We performed automatic evaluation to measure narrative coherence as indicated by the ability to answer questions about whether different events in the story are causally related to other events. Results indicate that our proposed method produces more coherent plotlines than several strong baselines.

Video temporal grounding aims to pinpoint a video segment that matches the query description. Despite the recent advance in short-form videos (e.g., in minutes), temporal grounding in long videos (e.g., in hours) is still at its early stage. To address this challenge, a common practice is to employ a sliding window, yet can be inefficient and inflexible due to the limited number of frames within the window. In this work, we propose an end-to-end framework for fast temporal grounding, which is able to model an hours-long video with one-time network execution. Our pipeline is formulated in a coarse-to-fine manner, where we first extract context knowledge from non-overlapped video clips (i.e., anchors), and then supplement the anchors that highly response to the query with detailed content knowledge. Besides the remarkably high pipeline efficiency, another advantage of our approach is the capability of capturing long-range temporal correlation, thanks to modeling the entire video as a whole, and hence facilitates more accurate grounding. Experimental results suggest that, on the long-form video datasets MAD and Ego4d, our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-arts, and achieves 14.6times / 102.8times higher efficiency respectively. Project can be found at https://github.com/afcedf/SOONet.git.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

In our pursuit of advancing multi-modal AI assistants capable of guiding users to achieve complex multi-step goals, we propose the task of "Visual Planning for Assistance (VPA)". Given a succinct natural language goal, e.g., "make a shelf", and a video of the user's progress so far, the aim of VPA is to devise a plan, i.e., a sequence of actions such as "sand shelf", "paint shelf", etc. to realize the specified goal. This requires assessing the user's progress from the (untrimmed) video, and relating it to the requirements of natural language goal, i.e., which actions to select and in what order? Consequently, this requires handling long video history and arbitrarily complex action dependencies. To address these challenges, we decompose VPA into video action segmentation and forecasting. Importantly, we experiment by formulating the forecasting step as a multi-modal sequence modeling problem, allowing us to leverage the strength of pre-trained LMs (as the sequence model). This novel approach, which we call Visual Language Model based Planner (VLaMP), outperforms baselines across a suite of metrics that gauge the quality of the generated plans. Furthermore, through comprehensive ablations, we also isolate the value of each component--language pre-training, visual observations, and goal information. We have open-sourced all the data, model checkpoints, and training code.

Replay methods have shown to be successful in mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning scenarios despite having limited access to historical data. However, storing historical data is cheap in many real-world applications, yet replaying all historical data would be prohibited due to processing time constraints. In such settings, we propose learning the time to learn for a continual learning system, in which we learn replay schedules over which tasks to replay at different time steps. To demonstrate the importance of learning the time to learn, we first use Monte Carlo tree search to find the proper replay schedule and show that it can outperform fixed scheduling policies in terms of continual learning performance. Moreover, to improve the scheduling efficiency itself, we propose to use reinforcement learning to learn the replay scheduling policies that can generalize to new continual learning scenarios without added computational cost. In our experiments, we show the advantages of learning the time to learn, which brings current continual learning research closer to real-world needs.

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

Automatic detection of natural disasters and incidents has become more important as a tool for fast response. There have been many studies to detect incidents using still images and text. However, the number of approaches that exploit temporal information is rather limited. One of the main reasons for this is that a diverse video dataset with various incident types does not exist. To address this need, in this paper we present a video dataset, Video Dataset of Incidents, VIDI, that contains 4,534 video clips corresponding to 43 incident categories. Each incident class has around 100 videos with a duration of ten seconds on average. To increase diversity, the videos have been searched in several languages. To assess the performance of the recent state-of-the-art approaches, Vision Transformer and TimeSformer, as well as to explore the contribution of video-based information for incident classification, we performed benchmark experiments on the VIDI and Incidents Dataset. We have shown that the recent methods improve the incident classification accuracy. We have found that employing video data is very beneficial for the task. By using the video data, the top-1 accuracy is increased to 76.56% from 67.37%, which was obtained using a single frame. VIDI will be made publicly available. Additional materials can be found at the following link: https://github.com/vididataset/VIDI.

Recent LLM-driven visual agents mainly focus on solving image-based tasks, which limits their ability to understand dynamic scenes, making it far from real-life applications like guiding students in laboratory experiments and identifying their mistakes. Considering the video modality better reflects the ever-changing nature of real-world scenarios, we devise DoraemonGPT, a comprehensive and conceptually elegant system driven by LLMs to handle dynamic video tasks. Given a video with a question/task, DoraemonGPT begins by converting the input video into a symbolic memory that stores task-related attributes. This structured representation allows for spatial-temporal querying and reasoning by well-designed sub-task tools, resulting in concise intermediate results. Recognizing that LLMs have limited internal knowledge when it comes to specialized domains (e.g., analyzing the scientific principles underlying experiments), we incorporate plug-and-play tools to assess external knowledge and address tasks across different domains. Moreover, a novel LLM-driven planner based on Monte Carlo Tree Search is introduced to explore the large planning space for scheduling various tools. The planner iteratively finds feasible solutions by backpropagating the result's reward, and multiple solutions can be summarized into an improved final answer. We extensively evaluate DoraemonGPT's effectiveness on three benchmarks and challenging in-the-wild scenarios. Code will be released at: https://github.com/z-x-yang/DoraemonGPT.