Daily Papers

Modeling the errors of a speech recognizer can help simulate errorful recognized speech data from plain text, which has proven useful for tasks like discriminative language modeling, improving robustness of NLP systems, where limited or even no audio data is available at train time. Previous work typically considered replicating behavior of GMM-HMM based systems, but the behavior of more modern posterior-based neural network acoustic models is not the same and requires adjustments to the error prediction model. In this work, we extend a prior phonetic confusion based model for predicting speech recognition errors in two ways: first, we introduce a sampling-based paradigm that better simulates the behavior of a posterior-based acoustic model. Second, we investigate replacing the confusion matrix with a sequence-to-sequence model in order to introduce context dependency into the prediction. We evaluate the error predictors in two ways: first by predicting the errors made by a Switchboard ASR system on unseen data (Fisher), and then using that same predictor to estimate the behavior of an unrelated cloud-based ASR system on a novel task. Sampling greatly improves predictive accuracy within a 100-guess paradigm, while the sequence model performs similarly to the confusion matrix.

Weakly supervised semantic segmentation is typically inspired by class activation maps, which serve as pseudo masks with class-discriminative regions highlighted. Although tremendous efforts have been made to recall precise and complete locations for each class, existing methods still commonly suffer from the unsolicited Out-of-Candidate (OC) error predictions that not belongs to the label candidates, which could be avoidable since the contradiction with image-level class tags is easy to be detected. In this paper, we develop a group ranking-based Out-of-Candidate Rectification (OCR) mechanism in a plug-and-play fashion. Firstly, we adaptively split the semantic categories into In-Candidate (IC) and OC groups for each OC pixel according to their prior annotation correlation and posterior prediction correlation. Then, we derive a differentiable rectification loss to force OC pixels to shift to the IC group. Incorporating our OCR with seminal baselines (e.g., AffinityNet, SEAM, MCTformer), we can achieve remarkable performance gains on both Pascal VOC (+3.2%, +3.3%, +0.8% mIoU) and MS COCO (+1.0%, +1.3%, +0.5% mIoU) datasets with negligible extra training overhead, which justifies the effectiveness and generality of our OCR.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Existing deep active learning algorithms achieve impressive sampling efficiency on natural language processing tasks. However, they exhibit several weaknesses in practice, including (a) inability to use uncertainty sampling with black-box models, (b) lack of robustness to labeling noise, and (c) lack of transparency. In response, we propose a transparent batch active sampling framework by estimating the error decay curves of multiple feature-defined subsets of the data. Experiments on four named entity recognition (NER) tasks demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly outperform diversification-based methods for black-box NER taggers, and can make the sampling process more robust to labeling noise when combined with uncertainty-based methods. Furthermore, the analysis of experimental results sheds light on the weaknesses of different active sampling strategies, and when traditional uncertainty-based or diversification-based methods can be expected to work well.

Recent research shows that Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit a compelling level of proficiency in Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. This ability to impute unobservable mental states to others is vital to human social cognition and may prove equally important in principal-agent relations between individual humans and Artificial Intelligences (AIs). In this paper, we explore how a mechanism studied in developmental psychology known as Violation of Expectation (VoE) can be implemented to reduce errors in LLM prediction about users by leveraging emergent ToM affordances. And we introduce a metacognitive prompting framework to apply VoE in the context of an AI tutor. By storing and retrieving facts derived in cases where LLM expectation about the user was violated, we find that LLMs are able to learn about users in ways that echo theories of human learning. Finally, we discuss latent hazards and augmentative opportunities associated with modeling user psychology and propose ways to mitigate risk along with possible directions for future inquiry.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Given sparse views of an object, estimating their camera poses is a long-standing and intractable problem. We harness the pre-trained diffusion model of novel views conditioned on viewpoints (Zero-1-to-3). We present ID-Pose which inverses the denoising diffusion process to estimate the relative pose given two input images. ID-Pose adds a noise on one image, and predicts the noise conditioned on the other image and a decision variable for the pose. The prediction error is used as the objective to find the optimal pose with the gradient descent method. ID-Pose can handle more than two images and estimate each of the poses with multiple image pairs from triangular relationships. ID-Pose requires no training and generalizes to real-world images. We conduct experiments using high-quality real-scanned 3D objects, where ID-Pose significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Detecting abnormal activities in real-world surveillance videos is an important yet challenging task as the prior knowledge about video anomalies is usually limited or unavailable. Despite that many approaches have been developed to resolve this problem, few of them can capture the normal spatio-temporal patterns effectively and efficiently. Moreover, existing works seldom explicitly consider the local consistency at frame level and global coherence of temporal dynamics in video sequences. To this end, we propose Convolutional Transformer based Dual Discriminator Generative Adversarial Networks (CT-D2GAN) to perform unsupervised video anomaly detection. Specifically, we first present a convolutional transformer to perform future frame prediction. It contains three key components, i.e., a convolutional encoder to capture the spatial information of the input video clips, a temporal self-attention module to encode the temporal dynamics, and a convolutional decoder to integrate spatio-temporal features and predict the future frame. Next, a dual discriminator based adversarial training procedure, which jointly considers an image discriminator that can maintain the local consistency at frame-level and a video discriminator that can enforce the global coherence of temporal dynamics, is employed to enhance the future frame prediction. Finally, the prediction error is used to identify abnormal video frames. Thoroughly empirical studies on three public video anomaly detection datasets, i.e., UCSD Ped2, CUHK Avenue, and Shanghai Tech Campus, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adversarial spatio-temporal modeling framework.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

By leveraging the text-to-image diffusion priors, score distillation can synthesize 3D contents without paired text-3D training data. Instead of spending hours of online optimization per text prompt, recent studies have been focused on learning a text-to-3D generative network for amortizing multiple text-3D relations, which can synthesize 3D contents in seconds. However, existing score distillation methods are hard to scale up to a large amount of text prompts due to the difficulties in aligning pretrained diffusion prior with the distribution of rendered images from various text prompts. Current state-of-the-arts such as Variational Score Distillation finetune the pretrained diffusion model to minimize the noise prediction error so as to align the distributions, which are however unstable to train and will impair the model's comprehension capability to numerous text prompts. Based on the observation that the diffusion models tend to have lower noise prediction errors at earlier timesteps, we propose Asynchronous Score Distillation (ASD), which minimizes the noise prediction error by shifting the diffusion timestep to earlier ones. ASD is stable to train and can scale up to 100k prompts. It reduces the noise prediction error without changing the weights of pre-trained diffusion model, thus keeping its strong comprehension capability to prompts. We conduct extensive experiments across different 2D diffusion models, including Stable Diffusion and MVDream, and text-to-3D generators, including Hyper-iNGP, 3DConv-Net and Triplane-Transformer. The results demonstrate ASD's effectiveness in stable 3D generator training, high-quality 3D content synthesis, and its superior prompt-consistency, especially under large prompt corpus.

Deep learning techniques are increasingly applied to scientific problems, where the precision of networks is crucial. Despite being deemed as universal function approximators, neural networks, in practice, struggle to reduce the prediction errors below O(10^{-5}) even with large network size and extended training iterations. To address this issue, we developed the multi-stage neural networks that divides the training process into different stages, with each stage using a new network that is optimized to fit the residue from the previous stage. Across successive stages, the residue magnitudes decreases substantially and follows an inverse power-law relationship with the residue frequencies. The multi-stage neural networks effectively mitigate the spectral biases associated with regular neural networks, enabling them to capture the high frequency feature of target functions. We demonstrate that the prediction error from the multi-stage training for both regression problems and physics-informed neural networks can nearly reach the machine-precision O(10^{-16}) of double-floating point within a finite number of iterations. Such levels of accuracy are rarely attainable using single neural networks alone.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

A longstanding goal of artificial general intelligence is highly capable generalists that can learn from diverse experiences and generalize to unseen tasks. The language and vision communities have seen remarkable progress toward this trend by scaling up transformer-based models trained on massive datasets, while reinforcement learning (RL) agents still suffer from poor generalization capacity under such paradigms. To tackle this challenge, we propose Meta Decision Transformer (Meta-DT), which leverages the sequential modeling ability of the transformer architecture and robust task representation learning via world model disentanglement to achieve efficient generalization in offline meta-RL. We pretrain a context-aware world model to learn a compact task representation, and inject it as a contextual condition to the causal transformer to guide task-oriented sequence generation. Then, we subtly utilize history trajectories generated by the meta-policy as a self-guided prompt to exploit the architectural inductive bias. We select the trajectory segment that yields the largest prediction error on the pretrained world model to construct the prompt, aiming to encode task-specific information complementary to the world model maximally. Notably, the proposed framework eliminates the requirement of any expert demonstration or domain knowledge at test time. Experimental results on MuJoCo and Meta-World benchmarks across various dataset types show that Meta-DT exhibits superior few and zero-shot generalization capacity compared to strong baselines while being more practical with fewer prerequisites. Our code is available at https://github.com/NJU-RL/Meta-DT.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

Identifying a small molecule from its mass spectrum is the primary open problem in computational metabolomics. This is typically cast as information retrieval: an unknown spectrum is matched against spectra predicted computationally from a large database of chemical structures. However, current approaches to spectrum prediction model the output space in ways that force a tradeoff between capturing high resolution mass information and tractable learning. We resolve this tradeoff by casting spectrum prediction as a mapping from an input molecular graph to a probability distribution over molecular formulas. We discover that a large corpus of mass spectra can be closely approximated using a fixed vocabulary constituting only 2% of all observed formulas. This enables efficient spectrum prediction using an architecture similar to graph classification - GrAFF-MS - achieving significantly lower prediction error and orders-of-magnitude faster runtime than state-of-the-art methods.

How to ensure fairness is an important topic in federated learning (FL). Recent studies have investigated how to reward clients based on their contribution (collaboration fairness), and how to achieve uniformity of performance across clients (performance fairness). Despite achieving progress on either one, we argue that it is critical to consider them together, in order to engage and motivate more diverse clients joining FL to derive a high-quality global model. In this work, we propose a novel method to optimize both types of fairness simultaneously. Specifically, we propose to estimate client contribution in gradient and data space. In gradient space, we monitor the gradient direction differences of each client with respect to others. And in data space, we measure the prediction error on client data using an auxiliary model. Based on this contribution estimation, we propose a FL method, federated training via contribution estimation (FedCE), i.e., using estimation as global model aggregation weights. We have theoretically analyzed our method and empirically evaluated it on two real-world medical datasets. The effectiveness of our approach has been validated with significant performance improvements, better collaboration fairness, better performance fairness, and comprehensive analytical studies.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

We present a novel approach for traffic forecasting in urban traffic scenarios using a combination of spectral graph analysis and deep learning. We predict both the low-level information (future trajectories) as well as the high-level information (road-agent behavior) from the extracted trajectory of each road-agent. Our formulation represents the proximity between the road agents using a weighted dynamic geometric graph (DGG). We use a two-stream graph-LSTM network to perform traffic forecasting using these weighted DGGs. The first stream predicts the spatial coordinates of road-agents, while the second stream predicts whether a road-agent is going to exhibit overspeeding, underspeeding, or neutral behavior by modeling spatial interactions between road-agents. Additionally, we propose a new regularization algorithm based on spectral clustering to reduce the error margin in long-term prediction (3-5 seconds) and improve the accuracy of the predicted trajectories. Moreover, we prove a theoretical upper bound on the regularized prediction error. We evaluate our approach on the Argoverse, Lyft, Apolloscape, and NGSIM datasets and highlight the benefits over prior trajectory prediction methods. In practice, our approach reduces the average prediction error by approximately 75% over prior algorithms and achieves a weighted average accuracy of 91.2% for behavior prediction. Additionally, our spectral regularization improves long-term prediction by up to 70%.

Data augmentation is critical to the empirical success of modern self-supervised representation learning, such as contrastive learning and masked language modeling. However, a theoretical understanding of the exact role of augmentation remains limited. Recent work has built the connection between self-supervised learning and the approximation of the top eigenspace of a graph Laplacian operator, suggesting that learning a linear probe atop such representation can be connected to RKHS regression. Building on this insight, this work delves into a statistical analysis of augmentation-based pretraining. Starting from the isometry property, a geometric characterization of the target function given by the augmentation, we disentangle the effects of the model and the augmentation, and prove two generalization bounds that are free of model complexity. Our first bound works for an arbitrary encoder, where the prediction error is decomposed as the sum of an estimation error incurred by fitting a linear probe with RKHS regression, and an approximation error entailed by RKHS approximation. Our second bound specifically addresses the case where the encoder is near-optimal, that is it approximates the top-d eigenspace of the RKHS induced by the augmentation. A key ingredient in our analysis is the augmentation complexity, which we use to quantitatively compare different augmentations and analyze their impact on downstream performance.

Gaze estimation has grown rapidly in accuracy in recent years. However, these models often fail to take advantage of different computer vision (CV) algorithms and techniques (such as small ResNet and Inception networks and ensemble models) that have been shown to improve results for other CV problems. Additionally, most current gaze estimation models require the use of either both eyes or an entire face, whereas real-world data may not always have both eyes in high resolution. Thus, we propose a gaze estimation model that implements the ResNet and Inception model architectures and makes predictions using only one eye image. Furthermore, we propose an ensemble calibration network that uses the predictions from several individual architectures for subject-specific predictions. With the use of lightweight architectures, we achieve high performance on the GazeCapture dataset with very low model parameter counts. When using two eyes as input, we achieve a prediction error of 1.591 cm on the test set without calibration and 1.439 cm with an ensemble calibration model. With just one eye as input, we still achieve an average prediction error of 2.312 cm on the test set without calibration and 1.951 cm with an ensemble calibration model. We also notice significantly lower errors on the right eye images in the test set, which could be important in the design of future gaze estimation-based tools.

Knowledge of mixtures' phase equilibria is crucial in nature and technical chemistry. Phase equilibria calculations of mixtures require activity coefficients. However, experimental data on activity coefficients is often limited due to high cost of experiments. For an accurate and efficient prediction of activity coefficients, machine learning approaches have been recently developed. However, current machine learning approaches still extrapolate poorly for activity coefficients of unknown molecules. In this work, we introduce the SMILES-to-Properties-Transformer (SPT), a natural language processing network to predict binary limiting activity coefficients from SMILES codes. To overcome the limitations of available experimental data, we initially train our network on a large dataset of synthetic data sampled from COSMO-RS (10 Million data points) and then fine-tune the model on experimental data (20 870 data points). This training strategy enables SPT to accurately predict limiting activity coefficients even for unknown molecules, cutting the mean prediction error in half compared to state-of-the-art models for activity coefficient predictions such as COSMO-RS, UNIFAC, and improving on recent machine learning approaches.

We evaluate the robustness of a Neural Architecture Search (NAS) algorithm known as Efficient NAS (ENAS) against data agnostic poisoning attacks on the original search space with carefully designed ineffective operations. We empirically demonstrate how our one shot search space poisoning approach exploits design flaws in the ENAS controller to degrade predictive performance on classification tasks. With just two poisoning operations injected into the search space, we inflate prediction error rates for child networks upto 90% on the CIFAR-10 dataset.

We propose a novel method to estimate a driver's points-of-gaze using a pair of ordinary cameras mounted on the windshield and dashboard of a car. This is a challenging problem due to the dynamics of traffic environments with 3D scenes of unknown depths. This problem is further complicated by the volatile distance between the driver and the camera system. To tackle these challenges, we develop a novel convolutional network that simultaneously analyzes the image of the scene and the image of the driver's face. This network has a camera calibration module that can compute an embedding vector that represents the spatial configuration between the driver and the camera system. This calibration module improves the overall network's performance, which can be jointly trained end to end. We also address the lack of annotated data for training and evaluation by introducing a large-scale driving dataset with point-of-gaze annotations. This is an in situ dataset of real driving sessions in an urban city, containing synchronized images of the driving scene as well as the face and gaze of the driver. Experiments on this dataset show that the proposed method outperforms various baseline methods, having the mean prediction error of 29.69 pixels, which is relatively small compared to the 1280{times}720 resolution of the scene camera.

Attention-based neural networks such as transformers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to exhibit in-context learning (ICL): Given a short prompt sequence of tokens from an unseen task, they can formulate relevant per-token and next-token predictions without any parameter updates. By embedding a sequence of labeled training data and unlabeled test data as a prompt, this allows for transformers to behave like supervised learning algorithms. Indeed, recent work has shown that when training transformer architectures over random instances of linear regression problems, these models' predictions mimic those of ordinary least squares. Towards understanding the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon, we investigate the dynamics of ICL in transformers with a single linear self-attention layer trained by gradient flow on linear regression tasks. We show that despite non-convexity, gradient flow with a suitable random initialization finds a global minimum of the objective function. At this global minimum, when given a test prompt of labeled examples from a new prediction task, the transformer achieves prediction error competitive with the best linear predictor over the test prompt distribution. We additionally characterize the robustness of the trained transformer to a variety of distribution shifts and show that although a number of shifts are tolerated, shifts in the covariate distribution of the prompts are not. Motivated by this, we consider a generalized ICL setting where the covariate distributions can vary across prompts. We show that although gradient flow succeeds at finding a global minimum in this setting, the trained transformer is still brittle under mild covariate shifts. We complement this finding with experiments on large, nonlinear transformer architectures which we show are more robust under covariate shifts.

Dyna-style model-based reinforcement learning contains two phases: model rollouts to generate sample for policy learning and real environment exploration using current policy for dynamics model learning. However, due to the complex real-world environment, it is inevitable to learn an imperfect dynamics model with model prediction error, which can further mislead policy learning and result in sub-optimal solutions. In this paper, we propose COPlanner, a planning-driven framework for model-based methods to address the inaccurately learned dynamics model problem with conservative model rollouts and optimistic environment exploration. COPlanner leverages an uncertainty-aware policy-guided model predictive control (UP-MPC) component to plan for multi-step uncertainty estimation. This estimated uncertainty then serves as a penalty during model rollouts and as a bonus during real environment exploration respectively, to choose actions. Consequently, COPlanner can avoid model uncertain regions through conservative model rollouts, thereby alleviating the influence of model error. Simultaneously, it explores high-reward model uncertain regions to reduce model error actively through optimistic real environment exploration. COPlanner is a plug-and-play framework that can be applied to any dyna-style model-based methods. Experimental results on a series of proprioceptive and visual continuous control tasks demonstrate that both sample efficiency and asymptotic performance of strong model-based methods are significantly improved combined with COPlanner.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean R^2 score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities, but their exposure bias problem, described as the input mismatch between training and sampling, lacks in-depth exploration. In this paper, we systematically investigate the exposure bias problem in diffusion models by first analytically modelling the sampling distribution, based on which we then attribute the prediction error at each sampling step as the root cause of the exposure bias issue. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions to this issue and propose an intuitive metric for it. Along with the elucidation of exposure bias, we propose a simple, yet effective, training-free method called Epsilon Scaling to alleviate the exposure bias. We show that Epsilon Scaling explicitly moves the sampling trajectory closer to the vector field learned in the training phase by scaling down the network output (Epsilon), mitigating the input mismatch between training and sampling. Experiments on various diffusion frameworks (ADM, DDPM/DDIM, EDM, LDM), unconditional and conditional settings, and deterministic vs. stochastic sampling verify the effectiveness of our method. Remarkably, our ADM-ES, as a SOTA stochastic sampler, obtains 2.17 FID on CIFAR-10 under 100-step unconditional generation. The code is available at https://github.com/forever208/ADM-ES and https://github.com/forever208/EDM-ES.

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.

Living systems face both environmental complexity and limited access to free-energy resources. Survival under these conditions requires a control system that can activate, or deploy, available perception and action resources in a context specific way. We show here that when systems are described as executing active inference driven by the free-energy principle (and hence can be considered Bayesian prediction-error minimizers), their control flow systems can always be represented as tensor networks (TNs). We show how TNs as control systems can be implmented within the general framework of quantum topological neural networks, and discuss the implications of these results for modeling biological systems at multiple scales.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Deep learning has proven to be a highly effective problem-solving tool for object detection and image segmentation across various domains such as healthcare and autonomous driving. At the heart of this performance lies neural architecture design which relies heavily on domain knowledge and prior experience on the researchers' behalf. More recently, this process of finding the most optimal architectures, given an initial search space of possible operations, was automated by Neural Architecture Search (NAS). In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of one such algorithm known as Efficient NAS (ENAS) against data agnostic poisoning attacks on the original search space with carefully designed ineffective operations. By evaluating algorithm performance on the CIFAR-10 dataset, we empirically demonstrate how our novel search space poisoning (SSP) approach and multiple-instance poisoning attacks exploit design flaws in the ENAS controller to result in inflated prediction error rates for child networks. Our results provide insights into the challenges to surmount in using NAS for more adversarially robust architecture search.

Monocular 3D lane detection is a challenging task due to its lack of depth information. A popular solution is to first transform the front-viewed (FV) images or features into the bird-eye-view (BEV) space with inverse perspective mapping (IPM) and detect lanes from BEV features. However, the reliance of IPM on flat ground assumption and loss of context information make it inaccurate to restore 3D information from BEV representations. An attempt has been made to get rid of BEV and predict 3D lanes from FV representations directly, while it still underperforms other BEV-based methods given its lack of structured representation for 3D lanes. In this paper, we define 3D lane anchors in the 3D space and propose a BEV-free method named Anchor3DLane to predict 3D lanes directly from FV representations. 3D lane anchors are projected to the FV features to extract their features which contain both good structural and context information to make accurate predictions. In addition, we also develop a global optimization method that makes use of the equal-width property between lanes to reduce the lateral error of predictions. Extensive experiments on three popular 3D lane detection benchmarks show that our Anchor3DLane outperforms previous BEV-based methods and achieves state-of-the-art performances. The code is available at: https://github.com/tusen-ai/Anchor3DLane.

Mobile robots require accurate and robust depth measurements to understand and interact with the environment. While existing sensing modalities address this problem to some extent, recent research on monocular depth estimation has leveraged the information richness, yet low cost and simplicity of monocular cameras. These works have shown significant generalization capabilities, mainly in automotive and indoor settings. However, robots often operate in environments with limited scale cues, self-similar appearances, and low texture. In this work, we encode measurements from a low-cost mmWave radar into the input space of a state-of-the-art monocular depth estimation model. Despite the radar's extreme point cloud sparsity, our method demonstrates generalization and robustness across industrial and outdoor experiments. Our approach reduces the absolute relative error of depth predictions by 9-64% across a range of unseen, real-world validation datasets. Importantly, we maintain consistency of all performance metrics across all experiments and scene depths where current vision-only approaches fail. We further address the present deficit of training data in mobile robotics environments by introducing a novel methodology for synthesizing rendered, realistic learning datasets based on photogrammetric data that simulate the radar sensor observations for training. Our code, datasets, and pre-trained networks are made available at https://github.com/ethz-asl/radarmeetsvision.

Analytical framework for predicting General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) performance on modern GPUs, focusing on runtime, power consumption, and energy efficiency. Our study employs two approaches: a custom-implemented tiled matrix multiplication kernel for fundamental analysis, and NVIDIA's CUTLASS library for comprehensive performance data collection across advanced configurations. Using the NVIDIA RTX 4070 as our experimental platform, we developed a Random Forest-based prediction model with multi-output regression capability. Through analysis of both naive tiled matrix multiplication with varying tile sizes (1 to 32) and 16,128 CUTLASS GEMM operations across diverse configurations, we identified critical performance patterns related to matrix dimensions, thread block configurations, and memory access patterns. Our framework achieved exceptional accuracy with an R^2 score of 0.98 for runtime prediction (mean error 15.57%) and 0.78 for power prediction (median error 5.42%). The system successfully predicts performance across matrix sizes, demonstrating robust scaling behavior. Our results show that optimal tile size selection can improve performance by up to 3.2x while reducing power consumption by 22% compared to baseline configurations. Analysis of shared memory utilization and SM occupancy reveals that tile sizes of 16x16 achieve the best balance between parallelism and resource usage. The implementation of our framework, including prediction models and analysis tools, is available as an open-source project at GPPerf [https://github.com/pavlyhalim/GPPerf].

We propose a keypoint-based object-level SLAM framework that can provide globally consistent 6DoF pose estimates for symmetric and asymmetric objects alike. To the best of our knowledge, our system is among the first to utilize the camera pose information from SLAM to provide prior knowledge for tracking keypoints on symmetric objects -- ensuring that new measurements are consistent with the current 3D scene. Moreover, our semantic keypoint network is trained to predict the Gaussian covariance for the keypoints that captures the true error of the prediction, and thus is not only useful as a weight for the residuals in the system's optimization problems, but also as a means to detect harmful statistical outliers without choosing a manual threshold. Experiments show that our method provides competitive performance to the state of the art in 6DoF object pose estimation, and at a real-time speed. Our code, pre-trained models, and keypoint labels are available https://github.com/rpng/suo_slam.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and specifically a variant with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are enjoying renewed interest as a result of successful applications in a wide range of machine learning problems that involve sequential data. However, while LSTMs provide exceptional results in practice, the source of their performance and their limitations remain rather poorly understood. Using character-level language models as an interpretable testbed, we aim to bridge this gap by providing an analysis of their representations, predictions and error types. In particular, our experiments reveal the existence of interpretable cells that keep track of long-range dependencies such as line lengths, quotes and brackets. Moreover, our comparative analysis with finite horizon n-gram models traces the source of the LSTM improvements to long-range structural dependencies. Finally, we provide analysis of the remaining errors and suggests areas for further study.

A new privacy-preserving federated learning framework allowing laser manufacturers to collaboratively build a robust ML-based laser lifetime prediction model, is proposed. It achieves a mean absolute error of 0.1 years and a significant performance improvement

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

This paper presents a speech intelligibility model based on automatic speech recognition (ASR), combining phoneme probabilities from deep neural networks (DNN) and a performance measure that estimates the word error rate from these probabilities. This model does not require the clean speech reference nor the word labels during testing as the ASR decoding step, which finds the most likely sequence of words given phoneme posterior probabilities, is omitted. The model is evaluated via the root-mean-squared error between the predicted and observed speech reception thresholds from eight normal-hearing listeners. The recognition task consists of identifying noisy words from a German matrix sentence test. The speech material was mixed with eight noise maskers covering different modulation types, from speech-shaped stationary noise to a single-talker masker. The prediction performance is compared to five established models and an ASR-model using word labels. Two combinations of features and networks were tested. Both include temporal information either at the feature level (amplitude modulation filterbanks and a feed-forward network) or captured by the architecture (mel-spectrograms and a time-delay deep neural network, TDNN). The TDNN model is on par with the DNN while reducing the number of parameters by a factor of 37; this optimization allows parallel streams on dedicated hearing aid hardware as a forward-pass can be computed within the 10ms of each frame. The proposed model performs almost as well as the label-based model and produces more accurate predictions than the baseline models.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

With an estimated 160,000 deaths in 2018, lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Lung cancer CT screening has been shown to reduce mortality by up to 40% and is now included in US screening guidelines. Reducing the high error rates in lung cancer screening is imperative because of the high clinical and financial costs caused by diagnosis mistakes. Despite the use of standards for radiological diagnosis, persistent inter-grader variability and incomplete characterization of comprehensive imaging findings remain as limitations of current methods. These limitations suggest opportunities for more sophisticated systems to improve performance and inter-reader consistency. In this report, we reproduce a state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm for lung cancer risk prediction. Our model predicts malignancy probability and risk bucket classification from lung CT studies. This allows for risk categorization of patients being screened and suggests the most appropriate surveillance and management. Combining our solution high accuracy, consistency and fully automated nature, our approach may enable highly efficient screening procedures and accelerate the adoption of lung cancer screening.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Safety and robustness are crucial factors in developing trustworthy autonomous vehicles. One essential aspect of addressing these factors is to equip vehicles with the capability to predict future trajectories for all moving objects in the surroundings and quantify prediction uncertainties. In this paper, we propose the Sequential Neural Variational Agent (SeNeVA), a generative model that describes the distribution of future trajectories for a single moving object. Our approach can distinguish Out-of-Distribution data while quantifying uncertainty and achieving competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on the Argoverse 2 and INTERACTION datasets. Specifically, a 0.446 meters minimum Final Displacement Error, a 0.203 meters minimum Average Displacement Error, and a 5.35% Miss Rate are achieved on the INTERACTION test set. Extensive qualitative and quantitative analysis is also provided to evaluate the proposed model. Our open-source code is available at https://github.com/PurdueDigitalTwin/seneva.

Pre-routing timing prediction has been recently studied for evaluating the quality of a candidate cell placement in chip design. It involves directly estimating the timing metrics for both pin-level (slack, slew) and edge-level (net delay, cell delay), without time-consuming routing. However, it often suffers from signal decay and error accumulation due to the long timing paths in large-scale industrial circuits. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage approach. First, we propose global circuit training to pre-train a graph auto-encoder that learns the global graph embedding from circuit netlist. Second, we use a novel node updating scheme for message passing on GCN, following the topological sorting sequence of the learned graph embedding and circuit graph. This scheme residually models the local time delay between two adjacent pins in the updating sequence, and extracts the lookup table information inside each cell via a new attention mechanism. To handle large-scale circuits efficiently, we introduce an order preserving partition scheme that reduces memory consumption while maintaining the topological dependencies. Experiments on 21 real world circuits achieve a new SOTA R2 of 0.93 for slack prediction, which is significantly surpasses 0.59 by previous SOTA method. Code will be available at: https://github.com/Thinklab-SJTU/EDA-AI.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Uncertainty in perception, actuation, and the environment often require multiple attempts for a robotic task to be successful. We study a class of problems providing (1) low-entropy indicators of terminal success / failure, and (2) unreliable (high-entropy) data to predict the final outcome of an ongoing task. Examples include a robot trying to connect with a charging station, parallel parking, or assembling a tightly-fitting part. The ability to restart after predicting failure early, versus simply running to failure, can significantly decrease the makespan, that is, the total time to completion, with the drawback of potentially short-cutting an otherwise successful operation. Assuming task running times to be Poisson distributed, and using a Markov Jump process to capture the dynamics of the underlying Markov Decision Process, we derive a closed form solution that predicts makespan based on the confusion matrix of the failure predictor. This allows the robot to learn failure prediction in a production environment, and only adopt a preemptive policy when it actually saves time. We demonstrate this approach using a robotic peg-in-hole assembly problem using a real robotic system. Failures are predicted by a dilated convolutional network based on force-torque data, showing an average makespan reduction from 101s to 81s (N=120, p<0.05). We posit that the proposed algorithm generalizes to any robotic behavior with an unambiguous terminal reward, with wide ranging applications on how robots can learn and improve their behaviors in the wild.

We present formulation and open-source tools to achieve in-material model predictive control of sensor/actuator systems using learned forward kinematics and on-device computation. Microcontroller units (MCUs) that compute the prediction and control task while colocated with the sensors and actuators enable in-material untethered behaviors. In this approach, small parameter size neural network models learn forward kinematics offline. Our open-source compiler, nn4mc, generates code to offload these predictions onto MCUs. A Newton-Raphson solver then computes the control input in real time. We first benchmark this nonlinear control approach against a PID controller on a mass-spring-damper simulation. We then study experimental results on two experimental rigs with different sensing, actuation and computational hardware: a tendon-based platform with embedded LightLace sensors and a HASEL-based platform with magnetic sensors. Experimental results indicate effective high-bandwidth tracking of reference paths (greater than or equal to 120 Hz) with a small memory footprint (less than or equal to 6.4% of flash memory). The measured path following error does not exceed 2mm in the tendon-based platform. The simulated path following error does not exceed 1mm in the HASEL-based platform. The mean power consumption of this approach in an ARM Cortex-M4f device is 45.4 mW. This control approach is also compatible with Tensorflow Lite models and equivalent on-device code. In-material intelligence enables a new class of composites that infuse autonomy into structures and systems with refined artificial proprioception.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

The task of Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) has received remarkable attention with wide applications in Natural Language Processing (NLP) in recent years. While one of the key principles of GEC is to keep the correct parts unchanged and avoid over-correction, previous sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models generate results from scratch, which are not guaranteed to follow the original sentence structure and may suffer from the over-correction problem. In the meantime, the recently proposed sequence tagging models can overcome the over-correction problem by only generating edit operations, but are conditioned on human designed language-specific tagging labels. In this paper, we combine the pros and alleviate the cons of both models by proposing a novel Sequence-to-Action~(S2A) module. The S2A module jointly takes the source and target sentences as input, and is able to automatically generate a token-level action sequence before predicting each token, where each action is generated from three choices named SKIP, COPY and GENerate. Then the actions are fused with the basic seq2seq framework to provide final predictions. We conduct experiments on the benchmark datasets of both English and Chinese GEC tasks. Our model consistently outperforms the seq2seq baselines, while being able to significantly alleviate the over-correction problem as well as holding better generality and diversity in the generation results compared to the sequence tagging models.

The application of superconducting materials is becoming more and more widespread. Traditionally, the discovery of new superconducting materials relies on the experience of experts and a large number of "trial and error" experiments, which not only increases the cost of experiments but also prolongs the period of discovering new superconducting materials. In recent years, machine learning has been increasingly applied to materials science. Based on this, this manuscript proposes the use of XGBoost model to identify superconductors; the first application of deep forest model to predict the critical temperature of superconductors; the first application of deep forest to predict the band gap of materials; and application of a new sub-network model to predict the Fermi energy level of materials. Compared with our known similar literature, all the above algorithms reach state-of-the-art. Finally, this manuscript uses the above models to search the COD public dataset and identify 50 candidate superconducting materials with possible critical temperature greater than 90 K.

Neural architecture search (NAS) with an accuracy predictor that predicts the accuracy of candidate architectures has drawn increasing attention due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Previous works usually employ neural network-based predictors which require more delicate design and are easy to overfit. Considering that most architectures are represented as sequences of discrete symbols which are more like tabular data and preferred by non-neural predictors, in this paper, we study an alternative approach which uses non-neural model for accuracy prediction. Specifically, as decision tree based models can better handle tabular data, we leverage gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) as the predictor for NAS. We demonstrate that the GBDT predictor can achieve comparable (if not better) prediction accuracy than neural network based predictors. Moreover, considering that a compact search space can ease the search process, we propose to prune the search space gradually according to important features derived from GBDT. In this way, NAS can be performed by first pruning the search space and then searching a neural architecture, which is more efficient and effective. Experiments on NASBench-101 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of using GBDT as predictor for NAS: (1) On NASBench-101, it is 22x, 8x, and 6x more sample efficient than random search, regularized evolution, and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in finding the global optimum; (2) It achieves 24.2% top-1 error rate on ImageNet, and further achieves 23.4% top-1 error rate on ImageNet when enhanced with search space pruning. Code is provided at https://github.com/renqianluo/GBDT-NAS.

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Industrial recommender systems face the challenge of operating in non-stationary environments, where data distribution shifts arise from evolving user behaviors over time. To tackle this challenge, a common approach is to periodically re-train or incrementally update deployed deep models with newly observed data, resulting in a continual training process. However, the conventional learning paradigm of neural networks relies on iterative gradient-based updates with a small learning rate, making it slow for large recommendation models to adapt. In this paper, we introduce ReLoop2, a self-correcting learning loop that facilitates fast model adaptation in online recommender systems through responsive error compensation. Inspired by the slow-fast complementary learning system observed in human brains, we propose an error memory module that directly stores error samples from incoming data streams. These stored samples are subsequently leveraged to compensate for model prediction errors during testing, particularly under distribution shifts. The error memory module is designed with fast access capabilities and undergoes continual refreshing with newly observed data samples during the model serving phase to support fast model adaptation. We evaluate the effectiveness of ReLoop2 on three open benchmark datasets as well as a real-world production dataset. The results demonstrate the potential of ReLoop2 in enhancing the responsiveness and adaptiveness of recommender systems operating in non-stationary environments.

The research field of Legal Natural Language Processing (NLP) has been very active recently, with Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) becoming one of the most extensively studied tasks. To date, most publicly released LJP datasets originate from countries with civil law. In this work, we release, for the first time, a challenging LJP dataset focused on class action cases in the US. It is the first dataset in the common law system that focuses on the harder and more realistic task involving the complaints as input instead of the often used facts summary written by the court. Additionally, we study the difficulty of the task by collecting expert human predictions, showing that even human experts can only reach 53% accuracy on this dataset. Our Longformer model clearly outperforms the human baseline (63%), despite only considering the first 2,048 tokens. Furthermore, we perform a detailed error analysis and find that the Longformer model is significantly better calibrated than the human experts. Finally, we publicly release the dataset and the code used for the experiments.

Cognitively inspired Natural Language Pro-cessing uses human-derived behavioral datalike eye-tracking data, which reflect the seman-tic representations of language in the humanbrain to augment the neural nets to solve arange of tasks spanning syntax and semanticswith the aim of teaching machines about lan-guage processing mechanisms. In this paper,we use the ZuCo 1.0 and ZuCo 2.0 dataset con-taining the eye-gaze features to explore differ-ent linguistic models to directly predict thesegaze features for each word with respect to itssentence. We tried different neural networkmodels with the words as inputs to predict thetargets. And after lots of experimentation andfeature engineering finally devised a novel ar-chitecture consisting of RoBERTa Token Clas-sifier with a dense layer on top for languagemodeling and a stand-alone model consistingof dense layers followed by a transformer layerfor the extra features we engineered. Finally,we took the mean of the outputs of both thesemodels to make the final predictions. We eval-uated the models using mean absolute error(MAE) and the R2 score for each target.

Training dialog policies for speech-based virtual assistants requires a plethora of conversational data. The data collection phase is often expensive and time consuming due to human involvement. To address this issue, a common solution is to build user simulators for data generation. For the successful deployment of the trained policies into real world domains, it is vital that the user simulator mimics realistic conditions. In particular, speech-based assistants are heavily affected by automatic speech recognition and language understanding errors, hence the user simulator should be able to simulate similar errors. In this paper, we review the existing error simulation methods that induce errors at audio, phoneme, text, or semantic level; and conduct detailed comparisons between the audio-level and text-level methods. In the process, we improve the existing text-level method by introducing confidence score prediction and out-of-vocabulary word mapping. We also explore the impact of audio-level and text-level methods on learning a simple clarification dialog policy to recover from errors to provide insight on future improvement for both approaches.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).

Text injection for automatic speech recognition (ASR), wherein unpaired text-only data is used to supplement paired audio-text data, has shown promising improvements for word error rate. This study examines the use of text injection for auxiliary tasks, which are the non-ASR tasks often performed by an E2E model. In this work, we use joint end-to-end and internal language model training (JEIT) as our text injection algorithm to train an ASR model which performs two auxiliary tasks. The first is capitalization, which is a de-normalization task. The second is turn-taking prediction, which attempts to identify whether a user has completed their conversation turn in a digital assistant interaction. We show results demonstrating that our text injection method boosts capitalization performance for long-tail data, and improves turn-taking detection recall.

Stochastic human motion prediction (HMP) has generally been tackled with generative adversarial networks and variational autoencoders. Most prior works aim at predicting highly diverse movements in terms of the skeleton joints' dispersion. This has led to methods predicting fast and motion-divergent movements, which are often unrealistic and incoherent with past motion. Such methods also neglect contexts that need to anticipate diverse low-range behaviors, or actions, with subtle joint displacements. To address these issues, we present BeLFusion, a model that, for the first time, leverages latent diffusion models in HMP to sample from a latent space where behavior is disentangled from pose and motion. As a result, diversity is encouraged from a behavioral perspective. Thanks to our behavior coupler's ability to transfer sampled behavior to ongoing motion, BeLFusion's predictions display a variety of behaviors that are significantly more realistic than the state of the art. To support it, we introduce two metrics, the Area of the Cumulative Motion Distribution, and the Average Pairwise Distance Error, which are correlated to our definition of realism according to a qualitative study with 126 participants. Finally, we prove BeLFusion's generalization power in a new cross-dataset scenario for stochastic HMP.

Protecting Personal Identifiable Information (PII) in text data is crucial for privacy, but current PII generalization methods face challenges such as uneven data distributions and limited context awareness. To address these issues, we propose two approaches: a feature-based method using machine learning to improve performance on structured inputs, and a novel context-aware framework that considers the broader context and semantic relationships between the original text and generalized candidates. The context-aware approach employs Multilingual-BERT for text representation, functional transformations, and mean squared error scoring to evaluate candidates. Experiments on the WikiReplace dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of both methods, with the context-aware approach outperforming the feature-based one across different scales. This work contributes to advancing PII generalization techniques by highlighting the importance of feature selection, ensemble learning, and incorporating contextual information for better privacy protection in text anonymization.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

We propose a game-based formulation for learning dimensionality-reducing representations of feature vectors, when only a prior knowledge on future prediction tasks is available. In this game, the first player chooses a representation, and then the second player adversarially chooses a prediction task from a given class, representing the prior knowledge. The first player aims is to minimize, and the second player to maximize, the regret: The minimal prediction loss using the representation, compared to the same loss using the original features. For the canonical setting in which the representation, the response to predict and the predictors are all linear functions, and under the mean squared error loss function, we derive the theoretically optimal representation in pure strategies, which shows the effectiveness of the prior knowledge, and the optimal regret in mixed strategies, which shows the usefulness of randomizing the representation. For general representations and loss functions, we propose an efficient algorithm to optimize a randomized representation. The algorithm only requires the gradients of the loss function, and is based on incrementally adding a representation rule to a mixture of such rules.

This paper presents the first dataset for Japanese Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP), the Japanese Tort-case Dataset (JTD), which features two tasks: tort prediction and its rationale extraction. The rationale extraction task identifies the court's accepting arguments from alleged arguments by plaintiffs and defendants, which is a novel task in the field. JTD is constructed based on annotated 3,477 Japanese Civil Code judgments by 41 legal experts, resulting in 7,978 instances with 59,697 of their alleged arguments from the involved parties. Our baseline experiments show the feasibility of the proposed two tasks, and our error analysis by legal experts identifies sources of errors and suggests future directions of the LJP research.

Exploring spatial-temporal dependencies from observed motions is one of the core challenges of human motion prediction. Previous methods mainly focus on dedicated network structures to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. This paper considers a new direction by introducing a model learning framework with auxiliary tasks. In our auxiliary tasks, partial body joints' coordinates are corrupted by either masking or adding noise and the goal is to recover corrupted coordinates depending on the rest coordinates. To work with auxiliary tasks, we propose a novel auxiliary-adapted transformer, which can handle incomplete, corrupted motion data and achieve coordinate recovery via capturing spatial-temporal dependencies. Through auxiliary tasks, the auxiliary-adapted transformer is promoted to capture more comprehensive spatial-temporal dependencies among body joints' coordinates, leading to better feature learning. Extensive experimental results have shown that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods by remarkable margins of 7.2%, 3.7%, and 9.4% in terms of 3D mean per joint position error (MPJPE) on the Human3.6M, CMU Mocap, and 3DPW datasets, respectively. We also demonstrate that our method is more robust under data missing cases and noisy data cases. Code is available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/AuxFormer.

Humans and animals have a rich and flexible understanding of the physical world, which enables them to infer the underlying dynamical trajectories of objects and events, plausible future states, and use that to plan and anticipate the consequences of actions. However, the neural mechanisms underlying these computations are unclear. We combine a goal-driven modeling approach with dense neurophysiological data and high-throughput human behavioral readouts to directly impinge on this question. Specifically, we construct and evaluate several classes of sensory-cognitive networks to predict the future state of rich, ethologically-relevant environments, ranging from self-supervised end-to-end models with pixel-wise or object-centric objectives, to models that future predict in the latent space of purely static image-based or dynamic video-based pretrained foundation models. We find strong differentiation across these model classes in their ability to predict neural and behavioral data both within and across diverse environments. In particular, we find that neural responses are currently best predicted by models trained to predict the future state of their environment in the latent space of pretrained foundation models optimized for dynamic scenes in a self-supervised manner. Notably, models that future predict in the latent space of video foundation models that are optimized to support a diverse range of sensorimotor tasks, reasonably match both human behavioral error patterns and neural dynamics across all environmental scenarios that we were able to test. Overall, these findings suggest that the neural mechanisms and behaviors of primate mental simulation are thus far most consistent with being optimized to future predict on dynamic, reusable visual representations that are useful for embodied AI more generally.

This paper presents a novel neural vocoder named APNet which reconstructs speech waveforms from acoustic features by predicting amplitude and phase spectra directly. The APNet vocoder is composed of an amplitude spectrum predictor (ASP) and a phase spectrum predictor (PSP). The ASP is a residual convolution network which predicts frame-level log amplitude spectra from acoustic features. The PSP also adopts a residual convolution network using acoustic features as input, then passes the output of this network through two parallel linear convolution layers respectively, and finally integrates into a phase calculation formula to estimate frame-level phase spectra. Finally, the outputs of ASP and PSP are combined to reconstruct speech waveforms by inverse short-time Fourier transform (ISTFT). All operations of the ASP and PSP are performed at the frame level. We train the ASP and PSP jointly and define multilevel loss functions based on amplitude mean square error, phase anti-wrapping error, short-time spectral inconsistency error and time domain reconstruction error. Experimental results show that our proposed APNet vocoder achieves an approximately 8x faster inference speed than HiFi-GAN v1 on a CPU due to the all-frame-level operations, while its synthesized speech quality is comparable to HiFi-GAN v1. The synthesized speech quality of the APNet vocoder is also better than that of several equally efficient models. Ablation experiments also confirm that the proposed parallel phase estimation architecture is essential to phase modeling and the proposed loss functions are helpful for improving the synthesized speech quality.

Deep neural networks (DNN) have shown great capacity of modeling a dynamical system; nevertheless, they usually do not obey physics constraints such as conservation laws. This paper proposes a new learning framework named ConCerNet to improve the trustworthiness of the DNN based dynamics modeling to endow the invariant properties. ConCerNet consists of two steps: (i) a contrastive learning method to automatically capture the system invariants (i.e. conservation properties) along the trajectory observations; (ii) a neural projection layer to guarantee that the learned dynamics models preserve the learned invariants. We theoretically prove the functional relationship between the learned latent representation and the unknown system invariant function. Experiments show that our method consistently outperforms the baseline neural networks in both coordinate error and conservation metrics by a large margin. With neural network based parameterization and no dependence on prior knowledge, our method can be extended to complex and large-scale dynamics by leveraging an autoencoder.

With the growing interest in large language models, the need for evaluating the quality of machine text compared to reference (typically human-generated) text has become focal attention. Most recent works focus either on task-specific evaluation metrics or study the properties of machine-generated text captured by the existing metrics. In this work, we propose a new evaluation scheme to model human judgments in 7 NLP tasks, based on the fine-grained mismatches between a pair of texts. Inspired by the recent efforts in several NLP tasks for fine-grained evaluation, we introduce a set of 13 mismatch error types such as spatial/geographic errors, entity errors, etc, to guide the model for better prediction of human judgments. We propose a neural framework for evaluating machine texts that uses these mismatch error types as auxiliary tasks and re-purposes the existing single-number evaluation metrics as additional scalar features, in addition to textual features extracted from the machine and reference texts. Our experiments reveal key insights about the existing metrics via the mismatch errors. We show that the mismatch errors between the sentence pairs on the held-out datasets from 7 NLP tasks align well with the human evaluation.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

We present STanHop-Net (Sparse Tandem Hopfield Network) for multivariate time series prediction with memory-enhanced capabilities. At the heart of our approach is STanHop, a novel Hopfield-based neural network block, which sparsely learns and stores both temporal and cross-series representations in a data-dependent fashion. In essence, STanHop sequentially learn temporal representation and cross-series representation using two tandem sparse Hopfield layers. In addition, StanHop incorporates two additional external memory modules: a Plug-and-Play module and a Tune-and-Play module for train-less and task-aware memory-enhancements, respectively. They allow StanHop-Net to swiftly respond to certain sudden events. Methodologically, we construct the StanHop-Net by stacking STanHop blocks in a hierarchical fashion, enabling multi-resolution feature extraction with resolution-specific sparsity. Theoretically, we introduce a sparse extension of the modern Hopfield model (Generalized Sparse Modern Hopfield Model) and show that it endows a tighter memory retrieval error compared to the dense counterpart without sacrificing memory capacity. Empirically, we validate the efficacy of our framework on both synthetic and real-world settings.

Self-training has greatly facilitated domain adaptive semantic segmentation, which iteratively generates pseudo labels on unlabeled target data and retrains the network. However, realistic segmentation datasets are highly imbalanced, pseudo labels are typically biased to the majority classes and basically noisy, leading to an error-prone and suboptimal model. In this paper, we propose a simple region-based active learning approach for semantic segmentation under a domain shift, aiming to automatically query a small partition of image regions to be labeled while maximizing segmentation performance. Our algorithm, Region Impurity and Prediction Uncertainty (RIPU), introduces a new acquisition strategy characterizing the spatial adjacency of image regions along with the prediction confidence. We show that the proposed region-based selection strategy makes more efficient use of a limited budget than image-based or point-based counterparts. Further, we enforce local prediction consistency between a pixel and its nearest neighbors on a source image. Alongside, we develop a negative learning loss to make the features more discriminative. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method only requires very few annotations to almost reach the supervised performance and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/BIT-DA/RIPU.

Few-shot Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has demonstrated strong performance in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). While theoretical investigations have been conducted to understand CoT, the underlying transformer used in these studies isolates the CoT reasoning process into separated in-context learning steps (Stepwise ICL). In this work, we theoretically show that, compared to Stepwise ICL, the transformer gains better error correction ability and more accurate predictions if the reasoning from earlier steps (Coherent CoT) is integrated. Given that this coherent reasoning changes the behavior of the transformer, we further investigate the sensitivity of the transformer with Coherent CoT when the demonstration examples are corrupted at the inference stage. Our theoretical results indicate that the transformer is more sensitive to errors in intermediate reasoning steps than the final outcome. Building upon this observation, we propose an improvement on CoT by incorporating both correct and incorrect reasoning paths in the demonstration. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The mainstream of the existing approaches for video prediction builds up their models based on a Single-In-Single-Out (SISO) architecture, which takes the current frame as input to predict the next frame in a recursive manner. This way often leads to severe performance degradation when they try to extrapolate a longer period of future, thus limiting the practical use of the prediction model. Alternatively, a Multi-In-Multi-Out (MIMO) architecture that outputs all the future frames at one shot naturally breaks the recursive manner and therefore prevents error accumulation. However, only a few MIMO models for video prediction are proposed and they only achieve inferior performance due to the date. The real strength of the MIMO model in this area is not well noticed and is largely under-explored. Motivated by that, we conduct a comprehensive investigation in this paper to thoroughly exploit how far a simple MIMO architecture can go. Surprisingly, our empirical studies reveal that a simple MIMO model can outperform the state-of-the-art work with a large margin much more than expected, especially in dealing with longterm error accumulation. After exploring a number of ways and designs, we propose a new MIMO architecture based on extending the pure Transformer with local spatio-temporal blocks and a new multi-output decoder, namely MIMO-VP, to establish a new standard in video prediction. We evaluate our model in four highly competitive benchmarks (Moving MNIST, Human3.6M, Weather, KITTI). Extensive experiments show that our model wins 1st place on all the benchmarks with remarkable performance gains and surpasses the best SISO model in all aspects including efficiency, quantity, and quality. We believe our model can serve as a new baseline to facilitate the future research of video prediction tasks. The code will be released.

Large sky spectroscopic surveys have reached the scale of photometric surveys in terms of sample sizes and data complexity. These huge datasets require efficient, accurate, and flexible automated tools for data analysis and science exploitation. We present the Galaxy Spectra Network/GaSNet-II, a supervised multi-network deep learning tool for spectra classification and redshift prediction. GaSNet-II can be trained to identify a customized number of classes and optimize the redshift predictions for classified objects in each of them. It also provides redshift errors, using a network-of-networks that reproduces a Monte Carlo test on each spectrum, by randomizing their weight initialization. As a demonstration of the capability of the deep learning pipeline, we use 260k Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra from Data Release 16, separated into 13 classes including 140k galactic, and 120k extragalactic objects. GaSNet-II achieves 92.4% average classification accuracy over the 13 classes (larger than 90% for the majority of them), and an average redshift error of approximately 0.23% for galaxies and 2.1% for quasars. We further train/test the same pipeline to classify spectra and predict redshifts for a sample of 200k 4MOST mock spectra and 21k publicly released DESI spectra. On 4MOST mock data, we reach 93.4% accuracy in 10-class classification and an average redshift error of 0.55% for galaxies and 0.3% for active galactic nuclei. On DESI data, we reach 96% accuracy in (star/galaxy/quasar only) classification and an average redshift error of 2.8% for galaxies and 4.8% for quasars, despite the small sample size available. GaSNet-II can process ~40k spectra in less than one minute, on a normal Desktop GPU. This makes the pipeline particularly suitable for real-time analyses of Stage-IV survey observations and an ideal tool for feedback loops aimed at night-by-night survey strategy optimization.

This paper describes our 3^{rd} place submission in the AVeriTeC shared task in which we attempted to address the challenge of fact-checking with evidence retrieved in the wild using a simple scheme of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) designed for the task, leveraging the predictive power of Large Language Models. We release our codebase and explain its two modules - the Retriever and the Evidence & Label generator - in detail, justifying their features such as MMR-reranking and Likert-scale confidence estimation. We evaluate our solution on AVeriTeC dev and test set and interpret the results, picking the GPT-4o as the most appropriate model for our pipeline at the time of our publication, with Llama 3.1 70B being a promising open-source alternative. We perform an empirical error analysis to see that faults in our predictions often coincide with noise in the data or ambiguous fact-checks, provoking further research and data augmentation.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

To enhance large language models (LLMs) for chemistry problem solving, several LLM-based agents augmented with tools have been proposed, such as ChemCrow and Coscientist. However, their evaluations are narrow in scope, leaving a large gap in understanding the benefits of tools across diverse chemistry tasks. To bridge this gap, we develop ChemAgent, an enhanced chemistry agent over ChemCrow, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of its performance on both specialized chemistry tasks and general chemistry questions. Surprisingly, ChemAgent does not consistently outperform its base LLMs without tools. Our error analysis with a chemistry expert suggests that: For specialized chemistry tasks, such as synthesis prediction, we should augment agents with specialized tools; however, for general chemistry questions like those in exams, agents' ability to reason correctly with chemistry knowledge matters more, and tool augmentation does not always help.

Asphalt concrete's (AC) durability and maintenance demands are strongly influenced by its fatigue life. Traditional methods for determining this characteristic are both resource-intensive and time-consuming. This study employs artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict AC fatigue life, focusing on the impact of strain level, binder content, and air-void content. Leveraging a substantial dataset, we tailored our models to effectively handle the wide range of fatigue life data, typically represented on a logarithmic scale. The mean square logarithmic error was utilized as the loss function to enhance prediction accuracy across all levels of fatigue life. Through comparative analysis of various hyperparameters, we developed a machine-learning model that captures the complex relationships within the data. Our findings demonstrate that higher binder content significantly enhances fatigue life, while the influence of air-void content is more variable, depending on binder levels. Most importantly, this study provides insights into the intricacies of using ANNs for modeling, showcasing their potential utility with larger datasets. The codes developed and the data used in this study are provided as open source on a GitHub repository, with a link included in the paper for full access.

This study investigates the application of deep residual networks for predicting the dynamics of interacting three-dimensional rigid bodies. We present a framework combining a 3D physics simulator implemented in C++ with a deep learning model constructed using PyTorch. The simulator generates training data encompassing linear and angular motion, elastic collisions, fluid friction, gravitational effects, and damping. Our deep residual network, consisting of an input layer, multiple residual blocks, and an output layer, is designed to handle the complexities of 3D dynamics. We evaluate the network's performance using a datasetof 10,000 simulated scenarios, each involving 3-5 interacting rigid bodies. The model achieves a mean squared error of 0.015 for position predictions and 0.022 for orientation predictions, representing a 25% improvement over baseline methods. Our results demonstrate the network's ability to capture intricate physical interactions, with particular success in predicting elastic collisions and rotational dynamics. This work significantly contributes to physics-informed machine learning by showcasing the immense potential of deep residual networks in modeling complex 3D physical systems. We discuss our approach's limitations and propose future directions for improving generalization to more diverse object shapes and materials.

We investigate the performance of a state-of-the art (SoTA) architecture T5 (available on the SuperGLUE) and compare with it 3 other previous SoTA architectures across 5 different tasks from 2 relatively diverse datasets. The datasets are diverse in terms of the number and types of tasks they have. To improve performance, we augment the training data by using an autoregressive model. We achieve near-SoTA results on a couple of the tasks - macro F1 scores of 81.66% for task A of the OLID 2019 dataset and 82.54% for task A of the hate speech and offensive content (HASOC) 2021 dataset, where SoTA are 82.9% and 83.05%, respectively. We perform error analysis and explain why one of the models (Bi-LSTM) makes the predictions it does by using a publicly available algorithm: Integrated Gradient (IG). This is because explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is essential for earning the trust of users. The main contributions of this work are the implementation method of T5, which is discussed; the data augmentation using a new conversational AI model checkpoint, which brought performance improvements; and the revelation on the shortcomings of HASOC 2021 dataset. It reveals the difficulties of poor data annotation by using a small set of examples where the T5 model made the correct predictions, even when the ground truth of the test set were incorrect (in our opinion). We also provide our model checkpoints on the HuggingFace hub1 to foster transparency.

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE -- in particular, is better than several alternative methods.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

Non-AutoRegressive (NAR) text generation models have drawn much attention because of their significantly faster decoding speed and good generation quality in machine translation. However, in a wider range of text generation tasks, existing NAR models lack proper pre-training, making them still far behind the pre-trained autoregressive models. In this paper, we propose Pre-trained Directed Acyclic Transformer (PreDAT) and a novel pre-training task to promote prediction consistency in NAR generation. Experiments on five text generation tasks show that our PreDAT remarkably outperforms existing pre-trained NAR models (+4.2 scores on average) and even achieves better results than pre-trained autoregressive baselines in n-gram-based metrics, along with 17 times speedup in throughput. Further analysis shows that PreDAT benefits from the unbiased prediction order that alleviates the error accumulation problem in autoregressive generation, which provides new insights into the advantages of NAR generation.

Semiconductor lasers, one of the key components for optical communication systems, have been rapidly evolving to meet the requirements of next generation optical networks with respect to high speed, low power consumption, small form factor etc. However, these demands have brought severe challenges to the semiconductor laser reliability. Therefore, a great deal of attention has been devoted to improving it and thereby ensuring reliable transmission. In this paper, a predictive maintenance framework using machine learning techniques is proposed for real-time heath monitoring and prognosis of semiconductor laser and thus enhancing its reliability. The proposed approach is composed of three stages: i) real-time performance degradation prediction, ii) degradation detection, and iii) remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. First of all, an attention based gated recurrent unit (GRU) model is adopted for real-time prediction of performance degradation. Then, a convolutional autoencoder is used to detect the degradation or abnormal behavior of a laser, given the predicted degradation performance values. Once an abnormal state is detected, a RUL prediction model based on attention-based deep learning is utilized. Afterwards, the estimated RUL is input for decision making and maintenance planning. The proposed framework is validated using experimental data derived from accelerated aging tests conducted for semiconductor tunable lasers. The proposed approach achieves a very good degradation performance prediction capability with a small root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.01, a good anomaly detection accuracy of 94.24% and a better RUL estimation capability compared to the existing ML-based laser RUL prediction models.

We present the joint contribution of Unbabel and Instituto Superior T\'ecnico to the WMT 2023 Shared Task on Quality Estimation (QE). Our team participated on all tasks: sentence- and word-level quality prediction (task 1) and fine-grained error span detection (task 2). For all tasks, we build on the COMETKIWI-22 model (Rei et al., 2022b). Our multilingual approaches are ranked first for all tasks, reaching state-of-the-art performance for quality estimation at word-, span- and sentence-level granularity. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art COMETKIWI-22, we show large improvements in correlation with human judgements (up to 10 Spearman points). Moreover, we surpass the second-best multilingual submission to the shared-task with up to 3.8 absolute points.

Obesity, the leading cause of many non-communicable diseases, occurs mainly for eating more than our body requirements and lack of proper activity. So, being healthy requires heathy diet plans, especially for patients with comorbidities. But it is difficult to figure out the exact quantity of each nutrient because nutrients requirement varies based on physical and disease conditions. In our study we proposed a novel machine learning based system to predict the amount of nutrients one individual requires for being healthy. We applied different machine learning algorithms: linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM on fluid and 3 other major micronutrients: carbohydrate, protein, fat consumption prediction. We achieved high accuracy with low root mean square error (RMSE) by using linear regression in fluid prediction, random forest in carbohydrate prediction and LightGBM in protein and fat prediction. We believe our diet recommender system, OBESEYE, is the only of its kind which recommends diet with the consideration of comorbidities and physical conditions and promote encouragement to get rid of obesity.

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

Predicting the bandwidth utilization on network links can be extremely useful for detecting congestion in order to correct them before they occur. In this paper, we present a solution to predict the bandwidth utilization between different network links with a very high accuracy. A simulated network is created to collect data related to the performance of the network links on every interface. These data are processed and expanded with feature engineering in order to create a training set. We evaluate and compare three types of machine learning algorithms, namely ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), in order to predict the future bandwidth consumption. The LSTM outperforms ARIMA and MLP with very accurate predictions, rarely exceeding a 3\% error (40\% for ARIMA and 20\% for the MLP). We then show that the proposed solution can be used in real time with a reaction managed by a Software-Defined Networking (SDN) platform.

When applying differential privacy to sensitive data, we can often improve performance using external information such as other sensitive data, public data, or human priors. We propose to use the learning-augmented algorithms (or algorithms with predictions) framework -- previously applied largely to improve time complexity or competitive ratios -- as a powerful way of designing and analyzing privacy-preserving methods that can take advantage of such external information to improve utility. This idea is instantiated on the important task of multiple quantile release, for which we derive error guarantees that scale with a natural measure of prediction quality while (almost) recovering state-of-the-art prediction-independent guarantees. Our analysis enjoys several advantages, including minimal assumptions about the data, a natural way of adding robustness, and the provision of useful surrogate losses for two novel ``meta" algorithms that learn predictions from other (potentially sensitive) data. We conclude with experiments on challenging tasks demonstrating that learning predictions across one or more instances can lead to large error reductions while preserving privacy.

We consider the dictionary-based ROM-net (Reduced Order Model) framework [T. Daniel, F. Casenave, N. Akkari, D. Ryckelynck, Model order reduction assisted by deep neural networks (ROM-net), Advanced modeling and Simulation in Engineering Sciences 7 (16), 2020] and summarize the underlying methodologies and their recent improvements. The main contribution of this work is the application of the complete workflow to a real-life industrial model of an elastoviscoplastic high-pressure turbine blade subjected to thermal, centrifugal and pressure loadings, for the quantification of the uncertainty on dual quantities (such as the accumulated plastic strain and the stress tensor), generated by the uncertainty on the temperature loading field. The dictionary-based ROM-net computes predictions of dual quantities of interest for 1008 Monte Carlo draws of the temperature loading field in 2 hours and 48 minutes, which corresponds to a speedup greater than 600 with respect to a reference parallel solver using domain decomposition, with a relative error in the order of 2%. Another contribution of this work consists in the derivation of a meta-model to reconstruct the dual quantities of interest over the complete mesh from their values on the reduced integration points.

In this study, we tackle massively multilingual grapheme-to-phoneme conversion through implementing G2P models based on ByT5. We have curated a G2P dataset from various sources that covers around 100 languages and trained large-scale multilingual G2P models based on ByT5. We found that ByT5 operating on byte-level inputs significantly outperformed the token-based mT5 model in terms of multilingual G2P. Pairwise comparison with monolingual models in these languages suggests that multilingual ByT5 models generally lower the phone error rate by jointly learning from a variety of languages. The pretrained model can further benefit low resource G2P through zero-shot prediction on unseen languages or provides pretrained weights for finetuning, which helps the model converge to a lower phone error rate than randomly initialized weights. To facilitate future research on multilingual G2P, we make available our code and pretrained multilingual G2P models at: https://github.com/lingjzhu/CharsiuG2P.

Unsupervised learning for geometric perception (depth, optical flow, etc.) is of great interest to autonomous systems. Recent works on unsupervised learning have made considerable progress on perceiving geometry; however, they usually ignore the coherence of objects and perform poorly under scenarios with dark and noisy environments. In contrast, supervised learning algorithms, which are robust, require large labeled geometric dataset. This paper introduces SIGNet, a novel framework that provides robust geometry perception without requiring geometrically informative labels. Specifically, SIGNet integrates semantic information to make depth and flow predictions consistent with objects and robust to low lighting conditions. SIGNet is shown to improve upon the state-of-the-art unsupervised learning for depth prediction by 30% (in squared relative error). In particular, SIGNet improves the dynamic object class performance by 39% in depth prediction and 29% in flow prediction. Our code will be made available at https://github.com/mengyuest/SIGNet

Pre-trained language models can be fine-tuned to solve diverse NLP tasks, including in few-shot settings. Thus fine-tuning allows the model to quickly pick up task-specific ``skills,'' but there has been limited study of where these newly-learnt skills reside inside the massive model. This paper introduces the term skill localization for this problem and proposes a solution. Given the downstream task and a model fine-tuned on that task, a simple optimization is used to identify a very small subset of parameters (sim0.01% of model parameters) responsible for (>95%) of the model's performance, in the sense that grafting the fine-tuned values for just this tiny subset onto the pre-trained model gives performance almost as well as the fine-tuned model. While reminiscent of recent works on parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the novel aspects here are that: (i) No further re-training is needed on the subset (unlike, say, with lottery tickets). (ii) Notable improvements are seen over vanilla fine-tuning with respect to calibration of predictions in-distribution (40-90% error reduction) as well as the quality of predictions out-of-distribution (OOD). In models trained on multiple tasks, a stronger notion of skill localization is observed, where the sparse regions corresponding to different tasks are almost disjoint, and their overlap (when it happens) is a proxy for task similarity. Experiments suggest that localization via grafting can assist certain forms of continual learning.

Test-time domain adaptation aims to adapt a source pre-trained model to a target domain without using any source data. Existing works mainly consider the case where the target domain is static. However, real-world machine perception systems are running in non-stationary and continually changing environments where the target domain distribution can change over time. Existing methods, which are mostly based on self-training and entropy regularization, can suffer from these non-stationary environments. Due to the distribution shift over time in the target domain, pseudo-labels become unreliable. The noisy pseudo-labels can further lead to error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting. To tackle these issues, we propose a continual test-time adaptation approach~(CoTTA) which comprises two parts. Firstly, we propose to reduce the error accumulation by using weight-averaged and augmentation-averaged predictions which are often more accurate. On the other hand, to avoid catastrophic forgetting, we propose to stochastically restore a small part of the neurons to the source pre-trained weights during each iteration to help preserve source knowledge in the long-term. The proposed method enables the long-term adaptation for all parameters in the network. CoTTA is easy to implement and can be readily incorporated in off-the-shelf pre-trained models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on four classification tasks and a segmentation task for continual test-time adaptation, on which we outperform existing methods. Our code is available at https://qin.ee/cotta.

The goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees for generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.

We present the joint contribution of IST and Unbabel to the WMT 2022 Shared Task on Quality Estimation (QE). Our team participated on all three subtasks: (i) Sentence and Word-level Quality Prediction; (ii) Explainable QE; and (iii) Critical Error Detection. For all tasks we build on top of the COMET framework, connecting it with the predictor-estimator architecture of OpenKiwi, and equipping it with a word-level sequence tagger and an explanation extractor. Our results suggest that incorporating references during pretraining improves performance across several language pairs on downstream tasks, and that jointly training with sentence and word-level objectives yields a further boost. Furthermore, combining attention and gradient information proved to be the top strategy for extracting good explanations of sentence-level QE models. Overall, our submissions achieved the best results for all three tasks for almost all language pairs by a considerable margin.

The framework of dominant learned video compression methods is usually composed of motion prediction modules as well as motion vector and residual image compression modules, suffering from its complex structure and error propagation problem. Approaches have been proposed to reduce the complexity by replacing motion prediction modules with implicit flow networks. Error propagation aware training strategy is also proposed to alleviate incremental reconstruction errors from previously decoded frames. Although these methods have brought some improvement, little attention has been paid to the framework itself. Inspired by the success of learned image compression through simplifying the framework with a single deep neural network, it is natural to expect a better performance in video compression via a simple yet appropriate framework. Therefore, we propose a framework to directly compress raw-pixel frames (rather than residual images), where no extra motion prediction module is required. Instead, an entropy model is used to estimate the spatiotemporal redundancy in a latent space rather than pixel level, which significantly reduces the complexity of the framework. Specifically, the whole framework is a compression module, consisting of a unified auto-encoder which produces identically distributed latents for all frames, and a spatiotemporal entropy estimation model to minimize the entropy of these latents. Experiments showed that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance under the metric of multiscale structural similarity (MS-SSIM) and achieves competitive results under the metric of PSNR.

Differentiable neural architecture search methods became popular in recent years, mainly due to their low search costs and flexibility in designing the search space. However, these methods suffer the difficulty in optimizing network, so that the searched network is often unfriendly to hardware. This paper deals with this problem by adding a differentiable latency loss term into optimization, so that the search process can tradeoff between accuracy and latency with a balancing coefficient. The core of latency prediction is to encode each network architecture and feed it into a multi-layer regressor, with the training data which can be easily collected from randomly sampling a number of architectures and evaluating them on the hardware. We evaluate our approach on NVIDIA Tesla-P100 GPUs. With 100K sampled architectures (requiring a few hours), the latency prediction module arrives at a relative error of lower than 10%. Equipped with this module, the search method can reduce the latency by 20% meanwhile preserving the accuracy. Our approach also enjoys the ability of being transplanted to a wide range of hardware platforms with very few efforts, or being used to optimizing other non-differentiable factors such as power consumption.

Recently, with the chain of thought (CoT) prompting, large language models (LLMs), e.g., GPT-3, have shown strong reasoning ability in several natural language processing tasks such as arithmetic, commonsense, and logical reasoning. However, LLMs with CoT require multi-step prompting and multi-token prediction, which is highly sensitive to individual mistakes and vulnerable to error accumulation. The above issues make the LLMs need the ability to verify the answers. In fact, after inferring conclusions in some thinking decision tasks, people often check them by re-verifying steps to avoid some mistakes. In this paper, we propose and prove that LLMs also have similar self-verification abilities. We take the conclusion obtained by CoT as one of the conditions for solving the original problem. By taking turns masking the original conditions and predicting their results, we calculate an explainable answer verification score based on whether the re-predicted conditions are correct. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can improve the reasoning performance on various arithmetic, commonsense, and logical reasoning datasets. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/WENGSYX/Self-Verification.

Integrating a notion of symmetry into point cloud neural networks is a provably effective way to improve their generalization capability. Of particular interest are E(3) equivariant point cloud networks where Euclidean transformations applied to the inputs are preserved in the outputs. Recent efforts aim to extend networks that are E(3) equivariant, to accommodate inputs made of multiple parts, each of which exhibits local E(3) symmetry. In practical settings, however, the partitioning into individually transforming regions is unknown a priori. Errors in the partition prediction would unavoidably map to errors in respecting the true input symmetry. Past works have proposed different ways to predict the partition, which may exhibit uncontrolled errors in their ability to maintain equivariance to the actual partition. To this end, we introduce APEN: a general framework for constructing approximate piecewise-E(3) equivariant point networks. Our primary insight is that functions that are equivariant with respect to a finer partition will also maintain equivariance in relation to the true partition. Leveraging this observation, we propose a design where the equivariance approximation error at each layers can be bounded solely in terms of (i) uncertainty quantification of the partition prediction, and (ii) bounds on the probability of failing to suggest a proper subpartition of the ground truth one. We demonstrate the effectiveness of APEN using two data types exemplifying part-based symmetry: (i) real-world scans of room scenes containing multiple furniture-type objects; and, (ii) human motions, characterized by articulated parts exhibiting rigid movement. Our empirical results demonstrate the advantage of integrating piecewise E(3) symmetry into network design, showing a distinct improvement in generalization compared to prior works for both classification and segmentation tasks.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Text classification is a fundamental language task in Natural Language Processing. A variety of sequential models is capable making good predictions yet there is lack of connection between language semantics and prediction results. This paper proposes a novel influence score (I-score), a greedy search algorithm called Backward Dropping Algorithm (BDA), and a novel feature engineering technique called the "dagger technique". First, the paper proposes a novel influence score (I-score) to detect and search for the important language semantics in text document that are useful for making good prediction in text classification tasks. Next, a greedy search algorithm called the Backward Dropping Algorithm is proposed to handle long-term dependencies in the dataset. Moreover, the paper proposes a novel engineering technique called the "dagger technique" that fully preserve the relationship between explanatory variable and response variable. The proposed techniques can be further generalized into any feed-forward Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and any neural network. A real-world application on the Internet Movie Database (IMDB) is used and the proposed methods are applied to improve prediction performance with an 81% error reduction comparing with other popular peers if I-score and "dagger technique" are not implemented.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

We present RALL-E, a robust language modeling method for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. While previous work based on large language models (LLMs) shows impressive performance on zero-shot TTS, such methods often suffer from poor robustness, such as unstable prosody (weird pitch and rhythm/duration) and a high word error rate (WER), due to the autoregressive prediction style of language models. The core idea behind RALL-E is chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting, which decomposes the task into simpler steps to enhance the robustness of LLM-based TTS. To accomplish this idea, RALL-E first predicts prosody features (pitch and duration) of the input text and uses them as intermediate conditions to predict speech tokens in a CoT style. Second, RALL-E utilizes the predicted duration prompt to guide the computing of self-attention weights in Transformer to enforce the model to focus on the corresponding phonemes and prosody features when predicting speech tokens. Results of comprehensive objective and subjective evaluations demonstrate that, compared to a powerful baseline method VALL-E, RALL-E significantly improves the WER of zero-shot TTS from 6.3% (without reranking) and 2.1% (with reranking) to 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. Furthermore, we demonstrate that RALL-E correctly synthesizes sentences that are hard for VALL-E and reduces the error rate from 68% to 4%.

Label Smoothing (LS) is widely adopted to curb overconfidence in neural network predictions and enhance generalization. However, previous research shows that LS can force feature representations into excessively tight clusters, eroding intra-class distinctions. More recent findings suggest that LS also induces overconfidence in misclassifications, yet the precise mechanism remained unclear. In this work, we decompose the loss term introduced by LS, revealing two key components: (i) a regularization term that functions only when the prediction is correct, and (ii) an error-enhancement term that emerges under misclassifications. This latter term compels the model to reinforce incorrect predictions with exaggerated certainty, further collapsing the feature space. To address these issues, we propose Max Suppression (MaxSup), which uniformly applies the intended regularization to both correct and incorrect predictions by penalizing the top-1 logit instead of the ground-truth logit. Through feature analyses, we show that MaxSup restores intra-class variation and sharpens inter-class boundaries. Extensive experiments on image classification and downstream tasks confirm that MaxSup is a more robust alternative to LS. Code is available at: https://github.com/ZhouYuxuanYX/Maximum-Suppression-Regularization.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

The information bottleneck (IB) approach is popular to improve the generalization, robustness and explainability of deep neural networks. Essentially, it aims to find a minimum sufficient representation t by striking a trade-off between a compression term I(x;t) and a prediction term I(y;t), where I(cdot;cdot) refers to the mutual information (MI). MI is for the IB for the most part expressed in terms of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which in the regression case corresponds to prediction based on mean squared error (MSE) loss with Gaussian assumption and compression approximated by variational inference. In this paper, we study the IB principle for the regression problem and develop a new way to parameterize the IB with deep neural networks by exploiting favorable properties of the Cauchy-Schwarz (CS) divergence. By doing so, we move away from MSE-based regression and ease estimation by avoiding variational approximations or distributional assumptions. We investigate the improved generalization ability of our proposed CS-IB and demonstrate strong adversarial robustness guarantees. We demonstrate its superior performance on six real-world regression tasks over other popular deep IB approaches. We additionally observe that the solutions discovered by CS-IB always achieve the best trade-off between prediction accuracy and compression ratio in the information plane. The code is available at https://github.com/SJYuCNEL/Cauchy-Schwarz-Information-Bottleneck.

Abugida refers to a phonogram writing system where each syllable is represented using a single consonant or typographic ligature, along with a default vowel or optional diacritic(s) to denote other vowels. However, texting in these languages has some unique challenges in spite of the advent of devices with soft keyboard supporting custom key layouts. The number of characters in these languages is large enough to require characters to be spread over multiple views in the layout. Having to switch between views many times to type a single word hinders the natural thought process. This prevents popular usage of native keyboard layouts. On the other hand, supporting romanized scripts (native words transcribed using Latin characters) with language model based suggestions is also set back by the lack of uniform romanization rules. To this end, we propose a disambiguation algorithm and showcase its usefulness in two novel mutually non-exclusive input methods for languages natively using the abugida writing system: (a) disambiguation of ambiguous input for abugida scripts, and (b) disambiguation of word variants in romanized scripts. We benchmark these approaches using public datasets, and show an improvement in typing speed by 19.49%, 25.13%, and 14.89%, in Hindi, Bengali, and Thai, respectively, using Ambiguous Input, owing to the human ease of locating keys combined with the efficiency of our inference method. Our Word Variant Disambiguation (WDA) maps valid variants of romanized words, previously treated as Out-of-Vocab, to a vocabulary of 100k words with high accuracy, leading to an increase in Error Correction F1 score by 10.03% and Next Word Prediction (NWP) by 62.50% on average.

Advancements in deep neural networks have allowed automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems to attain human parity on several publicly available clean speech datasets. However, even state-of-the-art ASR systems experience performance degradation when confronted with adverse conditions, as a well-trained acoustic model is sensitive to variations in the speech domain, e.g., background noise. Intuitively, humans address this issue by relying on their linguistic knowledge: the meaning of ambiguous spoken terms is usually inferred from contextual cues thereby reducing the dependency on the auditory system. Inspired by this observation, we introduce the first open-source benchmark to utilize external large language models (LLMs) for ASR error correction, where N-best decoding hypotheses provide informative elements for true transcription prediction. This approach is a paradigm shift from the traditional language model rescoring strategy that can only select one candidate hypothesis as the output transcription. The proposed benchmark contains a novel dataset, HyPoradise (HP), encompassing more than 334,000 pairs of N-best hypotheses and corresponding accurate transcriptions across prevalent speech domains. Given this dataset, we examine three types of error correction techniques based on LLMs with varying amounts of labeled hypotheses-transcription pairs, which gains a significant word error rate (WER) reduction. Experimental evidence demonstrates the proposed technique achieves a breakthrough by surpassing the upper bound of traditional re-ranking based methods. More surprisingly, LLM with reasonable prompt and its generative capability can even correct those tokens that are missing in N-best list. We make our results publicly accessible for reproducible pipelines with released pre-trained models, thus providing a new evaluation paradigm for ASR error correction with LLMs.

Hallucinations pose a significant challenge to the reliability and alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs), limiting their widespread acceptance beyond chatbot applications. Despite ongoing efforts, hallucinations remain a prevalent challenge in LLMs. The detection of hallucinations itself is also a formidable task, frequently requiring manual labeling or constrained evaluations. This paper introduces an automated scalable framework that combines benchmarking LLMs' hallucination tendencies with efficient hallucination detection. We leverage LLMs to generate challenging tasks related to hypothetical phenomena, subsequently employing them as agents for efficient hallucination detection. The framework is domain-agnostic, allowing the use of any language model for benchmark creation or evaluation in any domain. We introduce the publicly available HypoTermQA Benchmarking Dataset, on which state-of-the-art models' performance ranged between 3% and 11%, and evaluator agents demonstrated a 6% error rate in hallucination prediction. The proposed framework provides opportunities to test and improve LLMs. Additionally, it has the potential to generate benchmarking datasets tailored to specific domains, such as law, health, and finance.

In this paper we present TruFor, a forensic framework that can be applied to a large variety of image manipulation methods, from classic cheapfakes to more recent manipulations based on deep learning. We rely on the extraction of both high-level and low-level traces through a transformer-based fusion architecture that combines the RGB image and a learned noise-sensitive fingerprint. The latter learns to embed the artifacts related to the camera internal and external processing by training only on real data in a self-supervised manner. Forgeries are detected as deviations from the expected regular pattern that characterizes each pristine image. Looking for anomalies makes the approach able to robustly detect a variety of local manipulations, ensuring generalization. In addition to a pixel-level localization map and a whole-image integrity score, our approach outputs a reliability map that highlights areas where localization predictions may be error-prone. This is particularly important in forensic applications in order to reduce false alarms and allow for a large scale analysis. Extensive experiments on several datasets show that our method is able to reliably detect and localize both cheapfakes and deepfakes manipulations outperforming state-of-the-art works. Code is publicly available at https://grip-unina.github.io/TruFor/

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We introduce a few-shot learning framework for error detection. We show that data augmentation (a form of weak supervision) is key to training high-quality, ML-based error detection models that require minimal human involvement. Our framework consists of two parts: (1) an expressive model to learn rich representations that capture the inherent syntactic and semantic heterogeneity of errors; and (2) a data augmentation model that, given a small seed of clean records, uses dataset-specific transformations to automatically generate additional training data. Our key insight is to learn data augmentation policies from the noisy input dataset in a weakly supervised manner. We show that our framework detects errors with an average precision of ~94% and an average recall of ~93% across a diverse array of datasets that exhibit different types and amounts of errors. We compare our approach to a comprehensive collection of error detection methods, ranging from traditional rule-based methods to ensemble-based and active learning approaches. We show that data augmentation yields an average improvement of 20 F1 points while it requires access to 3x fewer labeled examples compared to other ML approaches.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in solving reasoning tasks; however, even the strongest models still occasionally make reasoning mistakes. Recently, there has been active research aimed at improving reasoning accuracy, particularly by using pretrained language models to "self-correct" their mistakes via multi-round prompting. In this paper, we follow this line of work but focus on understanding the usefulness of incorporating "error-correction" data directly into the pretraining stage. This data consists of erroneous solution steps immediately followed by their corrections. Using a synthetic math dataset, we show promising results: this type of pretrain data can help language models achieve higher reasoning accuracy directly (i.e., through simple auto-regression, without multi-round prompting) compared to pretraining on the same amount of error-free data. We also delve into many details, such as (1) how this approach differs from beam search, (2) how such data can be prepared, (3) whether masking is needed on the erroneous tokens, (4) the amount of error required, (5) whether such data can be deferred to the fine-tuning stage, and many others.

With Large Language Models (LLMs) being widely used across various tasks, detecting errors in their responses is increasingly crucial. However, little research has been conducted on error detection of LLM responses. Collecting error annotations on LLM responses is challenging due to the subjective nature of many NLP tasks, and thus previous research focuses on tasks of little practical value (e.g., word sorting) or limited error types (e.g., faithfulness in summarization). This work introduces ReaLMistake, the first error detection benchmark consisting of objective, realistic, and diverse errors made by LLMs. ReaLMistake contains three challenging and meaningful tasks that introduce objectively assessable errors in four categories (reasoning correctness, instruction-following, context-faithfulness, and parameterized knowledge), eliciting naturally observed and diverse errors in responses of GPT-4 and Llama 2 70B annotated by experts. We use ReaLMistake to evaluate error detectors based on 12 LLMs. Our findings show: 1) Top LLMs like GPT-4 and Claude 3 detect errors made by LLMs at very low recall, and all LLM-based error detectors perform much worse than humans. 2) Explanations by LLM-based error detectors lack reliability. 3) LLMs-based error detection is sensitive to small changes in prompts but remains challenging to improve. 4) Popular approaches to improving LLMs, including self-consistency and majority vote, do not improve the error detection performance. Our benchmark and code are provided at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/ReaLMistake.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce errors, including factual inaccuracies, biases, and reasoning failures, collectively referred to as "hallucinations". Recent studies have demonstrated that LLMs' internal states encode information regarding the truthfulness of their outputs, and that this information can be utilized to detect errors. In this work, we show that the internal representations of LLMs encode much more information about truthfulness than previously recognized. We first discover that the truthfulness information is concentrated in specific tokens, and leveraging this property significantly enhances error detection performance. Yet, we show that such error detectors fail to generalize across datasets, implying that -- contrary to prior claims -- truthfulness encoding is not universal but rather multifaceted. Next, we show that internal representations can also be used for predicting the types of errors the model is likely to make, facilitating the development of tailored mitigation strategies. Lastly, we reveal a discrepancy between LLMs' internal encoding and external behavior: they may encode the correct answer, yet consistently generate an incorrect one. Taken together, these insights deepen our understanding of LLM errors from the model's internal perspective, which can guide future research on enhancing error analysis and mitigation.

Large LMs such as GPT-3 are powerful, but can commit mistakes that are obvious to humans. For example, GPT-3 would mistakenly interpret "What word is similar to good?" to mean a homophone, while the user intended a synonym. Our goal is to effectively correct such errors via user interactions with the system but without retraining, which will be prohibitively costly. We pair GPT-3 with a growing memory of recorded cases where the model misunderstood the user's intents, along with user feedback for clarification. Such a memory allows our system to produce enhanced prompts for any new query based on the user feedback for error correction on similar cases in the past. On four tasks (two lexical tasks, two advanced ethical reasoning tasks), we show how a (simulated) user can interactively teach a deployed GPT-3, substantially increasing its accuracy over the queries with different kinds of misunderstandings by the GPT-3. Our approach is a step towards the low-cost utility enhancement for very large pre-trained LMs. Code, data, and instructions to implement MEMPROMPT for a new task at https://www.memprompt.com/.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs) has not only provided numerous opportunities but also presented significant challenges. This becomes particularly evident when LLMs inadvertently generate harmful or toxic content, either unintentionally or because of intentional inducement. Existing alignment methods usually direct LLMs toward the favorable outcomes by utilizing human-annotated, flawless instruction-response pairs. Conversely, this study proposes a novel alignment technique based on mistake analysis, which deliberately exposes LLMs to erroneous content to learn the reasons for mistakes and how to avoid them. In this case, mistakes are repurposed into valuable data for alignment, effectively helping to avoid the production of erroneous responses. Without external models or human annotations, our method leverages a model's intrinsic ability to discern undesirable mistakes and improves the safety of its generated responses. Experimental results reveal that our method outperforms existing alignment approaches in enhancing model safety while maintaining the overall utility.

This study explores enhancing grammatical error correction (GEC) through artificial error generation (AEG) using language models (LMs). Specifically, we fine-tune Llama 2-based LMs for error generation and find that this approach yields synthetic errors akin to human errors. Next, we train GEC Llama models with the help of these artificial errors and outperform previous state-of-the-art error correction models, with gains ranging between 0.8 and 6 F0.5 points across all tested languages (German, Ukrainian, and Estonian). Moreover, we demonstrate that generating errors by fine-tuning smaller sequence-to-sequence models and prompting large commercial LMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) also results in synthetic errors beneficially affecting error generation models.

While self-correction has shown promise in improving LLM outputs in terms of style and quality (e.g. Chen et al., 2023; Madaan et al., 2023), recent attempts to self-correct logical or reasoning errors often cause correct answers to become incorrect, resulting in worse performances overall (Huang et al., 2023). In this paper, we break down the self-correction process into two core components: mistake finding and output correction. For mistake finding, we release BIG-Bench Mistake, a dataset of logical mistakes in Chain-of-Thought reasoning traces. We provide benchmark numbers for several state-of-the-art LLMs, and demonstrate that LLMs generally struggle with finding logical mistakes. For output correction, we propose a backtracking method which provides large improvements when given information on mistake location. We construe backtracking as a lightweight alternative to reinforcement learning methods, and show that it remains effective with a reward model at 60-70% accuracy.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Grammatical Error Detection (GED) methods rely heavily on human annotated error corpora. However, these annotations are unavailable in many low-resource languages. In this paper, we investigate GED in this context. Leveraging the zero-shot cross-lingual transfer capabilities of multilingual pre-trained language models, we train a model using data from a diverse set of languages to generate synthetic errors in other languages. These synthetic error corpora are then used to train a GED model. Specifically we propose a two-stage fine-tuning pipeline where the GED model is first fine-tuned on multilingual synthetic data from target languages followed by fine-tuning on human-annotated GED corpora from source languages. This approach outperforms current state-of-the-art annotation-free GED methods. We also analyse the errors produced by our method and other strong baselines, finding that our approach produces errors that are more diverse and more similar to human errors.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Recent works have shown the benefits to LLMs from fine-tuning golden-standard Chain-of-Thought (CoT) rationales or using them as correct examples in few-shot prompting. While humans can indeed imitate correct examples, learning from our mistakes is another vital aspect of human cognition. Hence, a question naturally arises: can LLMs learn and benefit from their mistakes, especially for their reasoning? This study investigates this problem from both the prompting and model-tuning perspectives. We begin by introducing CoTErrorSet, a new benchmark with 609,432 questions, each designed with both correct and error references, and demonstrating the types and reasons for making such mistakes. To explore the effectiveness of those mistakes, we design two methods: (1) Self-rethinking prompting guides LLMs to rethink whether they have made similar previous mistakes; and (2) Mistake tuning involves finetuning models in both correct and incorrect reasoning domains, rather than only tuning models to learn ground truth in traditional methodology. We conduct a series of experiments to prove LLMs can obtain benefits from mistakes in both directions. Our two methods offer potentially cost-effective strategies by leveraging errors to enhance reasoning capabilities, which costs significantly less than creating meticulously hand-crafted golden references. We ultimately make a thorough analysis of the reasons behind LLMs' errors, which provides directions that future research needs to overcome. CoTErrorSet will be published soon on \url{https://github.com/YookiTong/Learn-from-Mistakes-CotErrorSet}.

Preference learning enhances Code LLMs beyond supervised fine-tuning by leveraging relative quality comparisons. Existing methods construct preference pairs from candidates based on test case success, treating the higher pass rate sample as positive and the lower as negative. However, this approach does not pinpoint specific errors in the code, which prevents the model from learning more informative error correction patterns, as aligning failing code as a whole lacks the granularity needed to capture meaningful error-resolution relationships. To address these issues, we propose IterPref, a new preference alignment framework that mimics human iterative debugging to refine Code LLMs. IterPref explicitly locates error regions and aligns the corresponding tokens via a tailored DPO algorithm. To generate informative pairs, we introduce the CodeFlow dataset, where samples are iteratively refined until passing tests, with modifications capturing error corrections. Extensive experiments show that a diverse suite of Code LLMs equipped with IterPref achieves significant performance gains in code generation and improves on challenging tasks like BigCodeBench. In-depth analysis reveals that IterPref yields fewer errors. Our code and data will be made publicaly available.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

We consider the task of mapping pseudocode to long programs that are functionally correct. Given test cases as a mechanism to validate programs, we search over the space of possible translations of the pseudocode to find a program that passes the validation. However, without proper credit assignment to localize the sources of program failures, it is difficult to guide search toward more promising programs. We propose to perform credit assignment based on signals from compilation errors, which constitute 88.7% of program failures. Concretely, we treat the translation of each pseudocode line as a discrete portion of the program, and whenever a synthesized program fails to compile, an error localization method tries to identify the portion of the program responsible for the failure. We then focus search over alternative translations of the pseudocode for those portions. For evaluation, we collected the SPoC dataset (Search-based Pseudocode to Code) containing 18,356 programs with human-authored pseudocode and test cases. Under a budget of 100 program compilations, performing search improves the synthesis success rate over using the top-one translation of the pseudocode from 25.6% to 44.7%.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Program errors can occur in any type of programming, and can manifest in a variety of ways, such as unexpected output, crashes, or performance issues. And program error diagnosis can often be too abstract or technical for developers to understand, especially for beginners. The goal of this paper is to present a novel machine-learning approach for Multi-task Program Error Repair and Explanatory Diagnosis (mPRED). A pre-trained language model is used to encode the source code, and a downstream model is specifically designed to identify and repair errors. Programs and test cases will be augmented and optimized from several perspectives. Additionally, our approach incorporates a "chain of thoughts" method, which enables the models to produce intermediate reasoning explanations before providing the final correction. To aid in visualizing and analyzing the program structure, we use a graph neural network for program structure visualization. Overall, our approach offers a promising approach for repairing program errors across different programming languages and providing helpful explanations to programmers.

Large language models (LLMs) recently exhibited remarkable reasoning capabilities on solving math problems. To further improve this capability, this work proposes Learning from Mistakes (LeMa), akin to human learning processes. Consider a human student who failed to solve a math problem, he will learn from what mistake he has made and how to correct it. Mimicking this error-driven learning process, LeMa fine-tunes LLMs on mistake-correction data pairs generated by GPT-4. Specifically, we first collect inaccurate reasoning paths from various LLMs and then employ GPT-4 as a "corrector" to (1) identify the mistake step, (2) explain the reason for the mistake, and (3) correct the mistake and generate the final answer. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of LeMa: across five backbone LLMs and two mathematical reasoning tasks, LeMa consistently improves the performance compared with fine-tuning on CoT data alone. Impressively, LeMa can also benefit specialized LLMs such as WizardMath and MetaMath, achieving 85.4% pass@1 accuracy on GSM8K and 27.1% on MATH. This surpasses the SOTA performance achieved by non-execution open-source models on these challenging tasks. Our code, data and models will be publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/CodeT.

Large pre-trained language models have brought remarkable progress in NLP. Pre-training and Fine-tuning have given state-of-art performance across tasks in text processing. Data Augmentation techniques have also helped build state-of-art models on low or zero resource tasks. Many works in the past have attempted at learning a single massively-multilingual machine translation model for zero-shot translation. Although those translation models are producing correct translations, the main challenge is those models are producing the wrong languages for zero-shot translation. This work and its results indicate that prompt conditioned large models do not suffer from off-target language errors i.e. errors arising due to translation to wrong languages. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of self-supervised pre-training and data augmentation for zero-shot multi-lingual machine translation.

Maybe not. We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark. Therefore, we open up MMLU-Redux for additional annotation https://huggingface.co/datasets/edinburgh-dawg/mmlu-redux.

This technical report describes the design and training of novel speculative decoding draft models, for accelerating the inference speeds of large language models in a production environment. By conditioning draft predictions on both context vectors and sampled tokens, we can train our speculators to efficiently predict high-quality n-grams, which the base model then accepts or rejects. This allows us to effectively predict multiple tokens per inference forward pass, accelerating wall-clock inference speeds of highly optimized base model implementations by a factor of 2-3x. We explore these initial results and describe next steps for further improvements.

Grammatical error correction (GEC) is the task of correcting typos, spelling, punctuation and grammatical issues in text. Approaching the problem as a sequence-to-sequence task, we compare the use of a common subword unit vocabulary and byte-level encoding. Initial synthetic training data is created using an error-generating pipeline, and used for finetuning two subword-level models and one byte-level model. Models are then finetuned further on hand-corrected error corpora, including texts written by children, university students, dyslexic and second-language writers, and evaluated over different error types and origins. We show that a byte-level model enables higher correction quality than a subword approach, not only for simple spelling errors, but also for more complex semantic, stylistic and grammatical issues. In particular, initial training on synthetic corpora followed by finetuning on a relatively small parallel corpus of real-world errors helps the byte-level model correct a wide range of commonly occurring errors. Our experiments are run for the Icelandic language but should hold for other similar languages, particularly morphologically rich ones.

The k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classification approach is conceptually simple - yet widely applied since it often performs well in practical applications. However, using a global constant k does not always provide an optimal solution, e.g., for datasets with an irregular density distribution of data points. This paper proposes an adaptive kNN classifier where k is chosen dynamically for each instance (point) to be classified, such that the expected accuracy of classification is maximized. We define the expected accuracy as the accuracy of a set of structurally similar observations. An arbitrary similarity function can be used to find these observations. We introduce and evaluate different similarity functions. For the evaluation, we use five different classification tasks based on geo-spatial data. Each classification task consists of (tens of) thousands of items. We demonstrate, that the presented expected accuracy measures can be a good estimator for kNN performance, and the proposed adaptive kNN classifier outperforms common kNN and previously introduced adaptive kNN algorithms. Also, we show that the range of considered k can be significantly reduced to speed up the algorithm without negative influence on classification accuracy.

Repositories of large software systems have become commonplace. This massive expansion has resulted in the emergence of various problems in these software platforms including identification of (i) bug-prone packages, (ii) critical bugs, and (iii) severity of bugs. One of the important goals would be to mine these bugs and recommend them to the developers to resolve them. The first step to this is that one has to accurately detect the extent of severity of the bugs. In this paper, we take up this task of predicting the severity of bugs in the near future. Contextualized neural models built on the text description of a bug and the user comments about the bug help to achieve reasonably good performance. Further information on how the bugs are related to each other in terms of the ways they affect packages can be summarised in the form of a graph and used along with the text to get additional benefits.

Widely used learned metrics for machine translation evaluation, such as COMET and BLEURT, estimate the quality of a translation hypothesis by providing a single sentence-level score. As such, they offer little insight into translation errors (e.g., what are the errors and what is their severity). On the other hand, generative large language models (LLMs) are amplifying the adoption of more granular strategies to evaluation, attempting to detail and categorize translation errors. In this work, we introduce xCOMET, an open-source learned metric designed to bridge the gap between these approaches. xCOMET integrates both sentence-level evaluation and error span detection capabilities, exhibiting state-of-the-art performance across all types of evaluation (sentence-level, system-level, and error span detection). Moreover, it does so while highlighting and categorizing error spans, thus enriching the quality assessment. We also provide a robustness analysis with stress tests, and show that xCOMET is largely capable of identifying localized critical errors and hallucinations.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

As text generated by large language models proliferates, it becomes vital to understand how humans engage with such text, and whether or not they are able to detect when the text they are reading did not originate with a human writer. Prior work on human detection of generated text focuses on the case where an entire passage is either human-written or machine-generated. In this paper, we study a more realistic setting where text begins as human-written and transitions to being generated by state-of-the-art neural language models. We show that, while annotators often struggle at this task, there is substantial variance in annotator skill and that given proper incentives, annotators can improve at this task over time. Furthermore, we conduct a detailed comparison study and analyze how a variety of variables (model size, decoding strategy, fine-tuning, prompt genre, etc.) affect human detection performance. Finally, we collect error annotations from our participants and use them to show that certain textual genres influence models to make different types of errors and that certain sentence-level features correlate highly with annotator selection. We release the RoFT dataset: a collection of over 21,000 human annotations paired with error classifications to encourage future work in human detection and evaluation of generated text.

The capability gap between open-source and closed-source large language models (LLMs) remains a challenge in text-to-SQL tasks. In this paper, we introduce a synthetic data approach that combines data produced by larger, more powerful models (strong models) with error information data generated by smaller, not well-aligned models (weak models). The method not only enhances the domain generalization of text-to-SQL models but also explores the potential of error data supervision through preference learning. Furthermore, we employ the synthetic data approach for instruction tuning on open-source LLMs, resulting SENSE, a specialized text-to-SQL model. The effectiveness of SENSE is demonstrated through state-of-the-art results on the SPIDER and BIRD benchmarks, bridging the performance gap between open-source models and methods prompted by closed-source models.

We identify label errors in the test sets of 10 of the most commonly-used computer vision, natural language, and audio datasets, and subsequently study the potential for these label errors to affect benchmark results. Errors in test sets are numerous and widespread: we estimate an average of at least 3.3% errors across the 10 datasets, where for example label errors comprise at least 6% of the ImageNet validation set. Putative label errors are identified using confident learning algorithms and then human-validated via crowdsourcing (51% of the algorithmically-flagged candidates are indeed erroneously labeled, on average across the datasets). Traditionally, machine learning practitioners choose which model to deploy based on test accuracy - our findings advise caution here, proposing that judging models over correctly labeled test sets may be more useful, especially for noisy real-world datasets. Surprisingly, we find that lower capacity models may be practically more useful than higher capacity models in real-world datasets with high proportions of erroneously labeled data. For example, on ImageNet with corrected labels: ResNet-18 outperforms ResNet-50 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 6%. On CIFAR-10 with corrected labels: VGG-11 outperforms VGG-19 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 5%. Test set errors across the 10 datasets can be viewed at https://labelerrors.com and all label errors can be reproduced by https://github.com/cleanlab/label-errors.

Trainable evaluation metrics for machine translation (MT) exhibit strong correlation with human judgements, but they are often hard to interpret and might produce unreliable scores under noisy or out-of-domain data. Recent work has attempted to mitigate this with simple uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles), however these techniques (as we show) are limited in several ways -- for example, they are unable to distinguish between different kinds of uncertainty, and they are time and memory consuming. In this paper, we propose more powerful and efficient uncertainty predictors for MT evaluation, and we assess their ability to target different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To this end, we develop and compare training objectives for the COMET metric to enhance it with an uncertainty prediction output, including heteroscedastic regression, divergence minimization, and direct uncertainty prediction. Our experiments show improved results on uncertainty prediction for the WMT metrics task datasets, with a substantial reduction in computational costs. Moreover, they demonstrate the ability of these predictors to address specific uncertainty causes in MT evaluation, such as low quality references and out-of-domain data.

Construction of a general-purpose post-recognition error corrector poses a crucial question: how can we most effectively train a model on a large mixture of domain datasets? The answer would lie in learning dataset-specific features and digesting their knowledge in a single model. Previous methods achieve this by having separate correction language models, resulting in a significant increase in parameters. In this work, we present Mixture-of-Experts as a solution, highlighting that MoEs are much more than a scalability tool. We propose a Multi-Task Correction MoE, where we train the experts to become an ``expert'' of speech-to-text, language-to-text and vision-to-text datasets by learning to route each dataset's tokens to its mapped expert. Experiments on the Open ASR Leaderboard show that we explore a new state-of-the-art performance by achieving an average relative 5.0% WER reduction and substantial improvements in BLEU scores for speech and translation tasks. On zero-shot evaluation, NeKo outperforms GPT-3.5 and Claude-Opus with 15.5% to 27.6% relative WER reduction in the Hyporadise benchmark. NeKo performs competitively on grammar and post-OCR correction as a multi-task model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated substantial potential for error correction in Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR). However, most research focuses on utterances from short-duration speech recordings, which are the predominant form of speech data for supervised ASR training. This paper investigates the effectiveness of LLMs for error correction in full-text generated by ASR systems from longer speech recordings, such as transcripts from podcasts, news broadcasts, and meetings. First, we develop a Chinese dataset for full-text error correction, named ChFT, utilizing a pipeline that involves text-to-speech synthesis, ASR, and error-correction pair extractor. This dataset enables us to correct errors across contexts, including both full-text and segment, and to address a broader range of error types, such as punctuation restoration and inverse text normalization, thus making the correction process comprehensive. Second, we fine-tune a pre-trained LLM on the constructed dataset using a diverse set of prompts and target formats, and evaluate its performance on full-text error correction. Specifically, we design prompts based on full-text and segment, considering various output formats, such as directly corrected text and JSON-based error-correction pairs. Through various test settings, including homogeneous, up-to-date, and hard test sets, we find that the fine-tuned LLMs perform well in the full-text setting with different prompts, each presenting its own strengths and weaknesses. This establishes a promising baseline for further research. The dataset is available on the website.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated an impressive ability to generate code for various programming tasks. In many instances, LLMs can generate a correct program for a task when given numerous trials. Consequently, a recent trend is to do large scale sampling of programs using a model and then filtering/ranking the programs based on the program execution on a small number of known unit tests to select one candidate solution. However, these approaches assume that the unit tests are given and assume the ability to safely execute the generated programs (which can do arbitrary dangerous operations such as file manipulations). Both of the above assumptions are impractical in real-world software development. In this paper, we propose CodeRanker, a neural ranker that can predict the correctness of a sampled program without executing it. Our CodeRanker is fault-aware i.e., it is trained to predict different kinds of execution information such as predicting the exact compile/runtime error type (e.g., an IndexError or a TypeError). We show that CodeRanker can significantly increase the pass@1 accuracy of various code generation models (including Codex, GPT-Neo, GPT-J) on APPS, HumanEval and MBPP datasets.

Recent Language Models (LMs) have shown impressive capabilities in generating texts with the knowledge internalized in parameters. Yet, LMs often generate the factually incorrect responses to the given queries, since their knowledge may be inaccurate, incomplete, and outdated. To address this problem, previous works propose to augment LMs with the knowledge retrieved from an external knowledge source. However, such approaches often show suboptimal text generation performance due to two reasons: 1) the model may fail to retrieve the knowledge relevant to the given query, or 2) the model may not faithfully reflect the retrieved knowledge in the generated text. To overcome these, we propose to verify the output and the knowledge of the knowledge-augmented LMs with a separate verifier, which is a small LM that is trained to detect those two types of errors through instruction-finetuning. Then, when the verifier recognizes an error, we can rectify it by either retrieving new knowledge or generating new text. Further, we use an ensemble of the outputs from different instructions with a single verifier to enhance the reliability of the verification processes. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed verification steps on multiple question answering benchmarks, whose results show that the proposed verifier effectively identifies retrieval and generation errors, allowing LMs to provide more factually correct outputs. Our code is available at https://github.com/JinheonBaek/KALMV.

We present TIGERScore, a Trained metric that follows Instruction Guidance to perform Explainable, and Reference-free evaluation over a wide spectrum of text generation tasks. Different from other automatic evaluation methods that only provide arcane scores, TIGERScore is guided by the natural language instruction to provide error analysis to pinpoint the mistakes in the generated text. Our metric is based on LLaMA, trained on our meticulously curated instruction-tuning dataset MetricInstruct which covers 6 text generation tasks and 23 text generation datasets. The dataset consists of 48K quadruple in the form of (instruction, input, system output rightarrow error analysis). We collected the `system outputs' through diverse channels to cover different types of errors. To quantitatively assess our metric, we evaluate its correlation with human ratings on 5 held-in datasets, 2 held-out datasets and show that TIGERScore can achieve the highest overall Spearman's correlation with human ratings across these datasets and outperforms other metrics significantly. As a reference-free metric, its correlation can even surpass the best existing reference-based metrics. To further qualitatively assess the rationale generated by our metric, we conduct human evaluation on the generated explanations and found that the explanations are 70.8\% accurate. Through these experimental results, we believe TIGERScore demonstrates the possibility of building universal explainable metrics to evaluate any text generation task.

Students frequently make mistakes while solving mathematical problems, and traditional error correction methods are both time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper introduces an innovative Virtual AI Teacher system designed to autonomously analyze and correct student Errors (VATE). Leveraging advanced large language models (LLMs), the system uses student drafts as a primary source for error analysis, which enhances understanding of the student's learning process. It incorporates sophisticated prompt engineering and maintains an error pool to reduce computational overhead. The AI-driven system also features a real-time dialogue component for efficient student interaction. Our approach demonstrates significant advantages over traditional and machine learning-based error correction methods, including reduced educational costs, high scalability, and superior generalizability. The system has been deployed on the Squirrel AI learning platform for elementary mathematics education, where it achieves 78.3\% accuracy in error analysis and shows a marked improvement in student learning efficiency. Satisfaction surveys indicate a strong positive reception, highlighting the system's potential to transform educational practices.

In the past couple of decades, significant research efforts are devoted to the prediction of software bugs. However, most existing work in this domain treats all bugs the same, which is not the case in practice. It is important for a defect prediction method to estimate the severity of the identified bugs so that the higher-severity ones get immediate attention. In this study, we investigate source code metrics, source code representation using large language models (LLMs), and their combination in predicting bug severity labels of two prominent datasets. We leverage several source metrics at method-level granularity to train eight different machine-learning models. Our results suggest that Decision Tree and Random Forest models outperform other models regarding our several evaluation metrics. We then use the pre-trained CodeBERT LLM to study the source code representations' effectiveness in predicting bug severity. CodeBERT finetuning improves the bug severity prediction results significantly in the range of 29%-140% for several evaluation metrics, compared to the best classic prediction model on source code metric. Finally, we integrate source code metrics into CodeBERT as an additional input, using our two proposed architectures, which both enhance the CodeBERT model effectiveness.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

During both pretraining and fine-tuning, Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on trillions of tokens of text of widely varying quality. Both phases of training typically involve heuristically filtering out ``low-quality'' or noisy training samples, yet little is known quantitatively about how the type or intensity of noise affects downstream performance. In this work, we study how noise in chain of thought (CoT) impacts task performance in the highly-controlled setting of algorithmically solvable tasks. First, we develop the Traced Integer (TInt) framework to generate highly customizable noised execution traces for any arithmetic function on lists of integers. We then define two types of noise: static noise, a local form of noise which is applied after the CoT trace is computed, and dynamic noise, a global form of noise which propagates errors in the trace as it is computed. We then evaluate the test performance of pretrained models both prompted and fine-tuned on noised datasets with varying levels of dataset contamination and intensity. We find fine-tuned models are extremely robust to high levels of static noise but struggle significantly more with lower levels of dynamic noise. In contrast, few-shot prompted models appear more sensitive to even static noise. We conclude with a discussion of how our findings impact noise filtering best-practices, in particular emphasizing the importance of removing samples containing destructive dynamic noise with global errors.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

This paper presents insights from evaluating 16 frontier large language models (LLMs) on the WebApp1K benchmark, a test suite designed to assess the ability of LLMs to generate web application code. The results reveal that while all models possess similar underlying knowledge, their performance is differentiated by the frequency of mistakes they make. By analyzing lines of code (LOC) and failure distributions, we find that writing correct code is more complex than generating incorrect code. Furthermore, prompt engineering shows limited efficacy in reducing errors beyond specific cases. These findings suggest that further advancements in coding LLM should emphasize on model reliability and mistake minimization.

In reasoning tasks, even a minor error can cascade into inaccurate results, leading to suboptimal performance of large language models in such domains. Earlier fine-tuning approaches sought to mitigate this by leveraging more precise supervisory signals from human labeling, larger models, or self-sampling, although at a high cost. Conversely, we develop a method that avoids external resources, relying instead on introducing perturbations to the input. Our training approach randomly masks certain tokens within the chain of thought, a technique we found to be particularly effective for reasoning tasks. When applied to fine-tuning with GSM8K, this method achieved a 5% improvement in accuracy over standard supervised fine-tuning with a few codes modified and no additional labeling effort. Furthermore, it is complementary to existing methods. When integrated with related data augmentation methods, it leads to an average improvement of 3% improvement in GSM8K accuracy and 1% improvement in MATH accuracy across five datasets of various quality and size, as well as two base models. We further investigate the mechanisms behind this improvement through case studies and quantitative analysis, suggesting that our approach may provide superior support for the model in capturing long-distance dependencies, especially those related to questions. This enhancement could deepen understanding of premises in questions and prior steps. Our code is available at Github.

When deploying large language models (LLMs), it is important to ensure that these models are not only capable, but also reliable. Many benchmarks have been created to track LLMs' growing capabilities, however there has been no similar focus on measuring their reliability. To understand the potential ramifications of this gap, we investigate how well current benchmarks quantify model reliability. We find that pervasive label errors can compromise these evaluations, obscuring lingering model failures and hiding unreliable behavior. Motivated by this gap in the evaluation of reliability, we then propose the concept of so-called platinum benchmarks, i.e., benchmarks carefully curated to minimize label errors and ambiguity. As a first attempt at constructing such benchmarks, we revise examples from fifteen existing popular benchmarks. We evaluate a wide range of models on these platinum benchmarks and find that, indeed, frontier LLMs still exhibit failures on simple tasks such as elementary-level math word problems. Analyzing these failures further reveals previously unidentified patterns of problems on which frontier models consistently struggle. We provide code at https://github.com/MadryLab/platinum-benchmarks

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited strong mathematical reasoning and computational prowess, tackling tasks ranging from basic arithmetic to advanced competition-level problems. However, frequently occurring subtle errors, such as miscalculations or incorrect substitutions, limit the models' full mathematical potential. Existing studies to improve mathematical ability typically involve distilling reasoning skills from stronger LLMs or applying preference learning to step-wise response pairs. Although these methods leverage samples of varying granularity to mitigate reasoning errors, they overlook the frequently occurring subtle errors. A major reason is that sampled preference pairs involve differences unrelated to the errors, which may distract the model from focusing on subtle errors. In this work, we propose a novel preference learning framework called eRror-Injected Self-Editing (RISE), which injects predefined subtle errors into partial tokens of correct solutions to construct hard pairs for error mitigation. In detail, RISE uses the model itself to edit a small number of tokens in the solution, injecting designed subtle errors. Then, pairs composed of self-edited solutions and their corresponding correct ones, along with pairs of correct and incorrect solutions obtained through sampling, are used together for subtle error-aware DPO training. Compared with other preference learning methods, RISE further refines the training objective to focus on predefined errors and their tokens, without requiring fine-grained sampling or preference annotation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RISE, with preference learning on Qwen2-7B-Instruct yielding notable improvements of 3.0% on GSM8K and 7.9% on MATH.

The GLEU metric was proposed for evaluating grammatical error corrections using n-gram overlap with a set of reference sentences, as opposed to precision/recall of specific annotated errors (Napoles et al., 2015). This paper describes improvements made to the GLEU metric that address problems that arise when using an increasing number of reference sets. Unlike the originally presented metric, the modified metric does not require tuning. We recommend that this version be used instead of the original version.

In Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), encoding information in a suboptimal or erroneous way can impact the quality of representations based on later elements in the sequence and subsequently lead to wrong predictions and a worse model performance. In humans, challenging cases like garden path sentences (an instance of this being the infamous "The horse raced past the barn fell") can lead their language understanding astray. However, they are still able to correct their representation accordingly and recover when new information is encountered. Inspired by this, I propose an augmentation to standard RNNs in form of a gradient-based correction mechanism: This way I hope to enable such models to dynamically adapt their inner representation of a sentence, adding a way to correct deviations as soon as they occur. This could therefore lead to more robust models using more flexible representations, even during inference time. I conduct different experiments in the context of language modeling, where the impact of using such a mechanism is examined in detail. To this end, I look at modifications based on different kinds of time-dependent error signals and how they influence the model performance. Furthermore, this work contains a study of the model's confidence in its predictions during training and for challenging test samples and the effect of the manipulation thereof. Lastly, I also study the difference in behavior of these novel models compared to a standard LSTM baseline and investigate error cases in detail to identify points of future research. I show that while the proposed approach comes with promising theoretical guarantees and an appealing intuition, it is only able to produce minor improvements over the baseline due to challenges in its practical application and the efficacy of the tested model variants.

This paper proposes one of the first clinical applications of multimodal large language models (LLMs) as an assistant for radiologists to check errors in their reports. We created an evaluation dataset from two real-world radiology datasets (MIMIC-CXR and IU-Xray), with 1,000 subsampled reports each. A subset of original reports was modified to contain synthetic errors by introducing various type of mistakes. The evaluation contained two difficulty levels: SIMPLE for binary error-checking and COMPLEX for identifying error types. LLaVA (Large Language and Visual Assistant) variant models, including our instruction-tuned model, were used for the evaluation. Additionally, a domain expert evaluation was conducted on a small test set. At the SIMPLE level, the LLaVA v1.5 model outperformed other publicly available models. Instruction tuning significantly enhanced performance by 47.4% and 25.4% on MIMIC-CXR and IU-Xray data, respectively. The model also surpassed the domain experts accuracy in the MIMIC-CXR dataset by 1.67%. Notably, among the subsets (N=21) of the test set where a clinician did not achieve the correct conclusion, the LLaVA ensemble mode correctly identified 71.4% of these cases. This study marks a promising step toward utilizing multi-modal LLMs to enhance diagnostic accuracy in radiology. The ensemble model demonstrated comparable performance to clinicians, even capturing errors overlooked by humans. Nevertheless, future work is needed to improve the model ability to identify the types of inconsistency.

Machine learning (ML) models are only as good as the data they are trained on. But recent studies have found datasets widely used to train and evaluate ML models, e.g. ImageNet, to have pervasive labeling errors. Erroneous labels on the train set hurt ML models' ability to generalize, and they impact evaluation and model selection using the test set. Consequently, learning in the presence of labeling errors is an active area of research, yet this field lacks a comprehensive benchmark to evaluate these methods. Most of these methods are evaluated on a few computer vision datasets with significant variance in the experimental protocols. With such a large pool of methods and inconsistent evaluation, it is also unclear how ML practitioners can choose the right models to assess label quality in their data. To this end, we propose a benchmarking environment AQuA to rigorously evaluate methods that enable machine learning in the presence of label noise. We also introduce a design space to delineate concrete design choices of label error detection models. We hope that our proposed design space and benchmark enable practitioners to choose the right tools to improve their label quality and that our benchmark enables objective and rigorous evaluation of machine learning tools facing mislabeled data.

Despite its crucial role in research experiments, code correctness is often presumed only on the basis of the perceived quality of results. This assumption comes with the risk of erroneous outcomes and potentially misleading findings. To address this issue, we posit that the current focus on reproducibility should go hand in hand with the emphasis on software quality. We present a case study in which we identify and fix three bugs in widely used implementations of the state-of-the-art Conformer architecture. Through experiments on speech recognition and translation in various languages, we demonstrate that the presence of bugs does not prevent the achievement of good and reproducible results, which however can lead to incorrect conclusions that potentially misguide future research. As a countermeasure, we propose a Code-quality Checklist and release pangoliNN, a library dedicated to testing neural models, with the goal of promoting coding best practices and improving research software quality within the NLP community.

Although existing neural network approaches have achieved great success on Chinese spelling correction, there is still room to improve. The model is required to avoid over-correction and to distinguish a correct token from its phonological and visually similar ones. In this paper, we propose an error-guided correction model (EGCM) to improve Chinese spelling correction. By borrowing the powerful ability of BERT, we propose a novel zero-shot error detection method to do a preliminary detection, which guides our model to attend more on the probably wrong tokens in encoding and to avoid modifying the correct tokens in generating. Furthermore, we introduce a new loss function to integrate the error confusion set, which enables our model to distinguish easily misused tokens. Moreover, our model supports highly parallel decoding to meet real application requirements. Experiments are conducted on widely used benchmarks. Our model achieves superior performance against state-of-the-art approaches by a remarkable margin, on both the correction quality and computation speed.

The recent progress in large language models (LLMs), especially the invention of chain-of-thoughts (CoT) prompting, makes it possible to solve reasoning problems. However, even the strongest LLMs are still struggling with more complicated problems that require non-linear thinking and multi-step reasoning. In this work, we explore whether LLMs have the ability to recognize their own errors, without resorting to external resources. In particular, we investigate whether they can be used to identify individual errors within a step-by-step reasoning. To this end, we propose a zero-shot verification scheme to recognize such errors. We then use this verification scheme to improve question-answering performance, by using it to perform weighted voting on different generated answers. We test the method on three math datasets-GSM8K, MathQA, and MATH-and find that it successfully recognizes errors and, in turn, increases final predictive performance.

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

We present CRUXEval (Code Reasoning, Understanding, and eXecution Evaluation), a benchmark consisting of 800 Python functions (3-13 lines). Each function comes with an input-output pair, leading to two natural tasks: input prediction and output prediction. First, we propose a generic recipe for generating our execution benchmark which can be used to create future variation of the benchmark. Second, we evaluate twenty code models on our benchmark and discover that many recent high-scoring models on HumanEval do not show the same improvements on our benchmark. Third, we show that simple CoT and fine-tuning schemes can improve performance on our benchmark but remain far from solving it. The best setup, GPT-4 with chain of thought (CoT), achieves a pass@1 of 75% and 81% on input and output prediction, respectively. In contrast, Code Llama 34B achieves a pass@1 of 50% and 46% on input and output prediction, highlighting the gap between open and closed source models. As no model is close to acing CRUXEval, we provide examples of consistent GPT-4 failures on simple programs as a lens into its code reasoning capabilities and areas for improvement.

Advanced applied mathematics problems are underrepresented in existing Large Language Model (LLM) benchmark datasets. To address this, we introduce HARDMath, a dataset inspired by a graduate course on asymptotic methods, featuring challenging applied mathematics problems that require analytical approximation techniques. These problems demand a combination of mathematical reasoning, computational tools, and subjective judgment, making them difficult for LLMs. Our framework auto-generates a large number of problems with solutions validated against numerical ground truths. We evaluate both open- and closed-source LLMs on HARDMath-mini, a sub-sampled test set of 366 problems, as well as on 40 word problems formulated in applied science contexts. Even leading closed-source models like GPT-4 achieve only 43.8% overall accuracy with few-shot Chain-of-Thought prompting, and all models demonstrate significantly lower performance compared to results on existing mathematics benchmark datasets. We additionally conduct a detailed error analysis to gain insights into the failure cases of LLMs. These results demonstrate limitations of current LLM performance on advanced graduate-level applied math problems and underscore the importance of datasets like HARDMath to advance mathematical abilities of LLMs.

In industry NLP application, our manually labeled data has a certain number of noisy data. We present a simple method to find the noisy data and relabel them manually, meanwhile we collect the correction information. Then we present novel method to incorporate the human correction information into deep learning model. Human know how to correct noisy data. So the correction information can be inject into deep learning model. We do the experiment on our own text classification dataset, which is manually labeled, because we need to relabel the noisy data in our dataset for our industry application. The experiment result shows that our learn-on-correction method improve the classification accuracy from 91.7% to 92.5% in test dataset. The 91.7% accuracy is trained on the corrected dataset, which improve the baseline from 83.3% to 91.7% in test dataset. The accuracy under human evaluation achieves more than 97%.

We present a novel method of performing spelling correction on short input strings, such as search queries or individual words. At its core lies a procedure for generating artificial typos which closely follow the error patterns manifested by humans. This procedure is used to train the production spelling correction model based on a transformer architecture. This model is currently served in the HubSpot product search. We show that our approach to typo generation is superior to the widespread practice of adding noise, which ignores human patterns. We also demonstrate how our approach may be extended to resource-scarce settings and train spelling correction models for Arabic, Greek, Russian, and Setswana languages, without using any labeled data.

Sequence-to-sequence models have been used to transform erroneous programs into correct ones when trained with a large enough dataset. Some recent studies also demonstrated strong empirical evidence that code review could improve the program repair further. Large language models, trained with Natural Language (NL) and Programming Language (PL), can contain inherent knowledge of both. In this study, we investigate if this inherent knowledge of PL and NL can be utilized to improve automated program repair. We applied PLBART and CodeT5, two state-of-the-art language models that are pre-trained with both PL and NL, on two such natural language-based program repair datasets and found that the pre-trained language models fine-tuned with datasets containing both code review and subsequent code changes notably outperformed each of the previous models. With the advent of code generative models like Codex and GPT-3.5-Turbo, we also performed zero-shot and few-shots learning-based prompt engineering to assess their performance on these datasets. However, the practical application of using LLMs in the context of automated program repair is still a long way off based on our manual analysis of the generated repaired codes by the learning models.

TypeScript and Python are two programming languages that support optional type annotations, which are useful but tedious to introduce and maintain. This has motivated automated type prediction: given an untyped program, produce a well-typed output program. Large language models (LLMs) are promising for type prediction, but there are challenges: fill-in-the-middle performs poorly, programs may not fit into the context window, generated types may not type check, and it is difficult to measure how well-typed the output program is. We address these challenges by building OpenTau, a search-based approach for type prediction that leverages large language models. We propose a new metric for type prediction quality, give a tree-based program decomposition that searches a space of generated types, and present fill-in-the-type fine-tuning for LLMs. We evaluate our work with a new dataset for TypeScript type prediction, and show that 47.4% of files type check (14.5% absolute improvement) with an overall rate of 3.3 type errors per file. All code, data, and models are available at: https://github.com/GammaTauAI/opentau.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code-related tasks, such as code understanding and code generation. However, an equally important yet underexplored question is whether LLMs can serve as general-purpose surrogate code executors, to predict the output and behavior of a program without actually running it. To systematically investigate this capability, we introduce SURGE, a comprehensive benchmark covering eight key aspects: multi-language programming tasks, competition-level programming problems, repository-level code analysis, high-cost scientific computing, time-complexity-intensive algorithms, buggy code analysis, programs dependent on specific compilers or execution environments, and formal mathematical proof verification. We evaluate multiple open-source and proprietary LLMs on SURGE and conduct a scaling study to analyze the impact of model size and training data scale on surrogate execution accuracy. Additionally, we categorize model prediction errors and explore potential areas for improvement. Our findings indicate that while LLMs can predict code execution results in certain cases, they exhibit limitations in general-purpose surrogate execution. This study provides empirical insights into the feasibility of using LLMs as surrogate code executors. Code and dataset are released at https://github.com/Imbernoulli/SURGE.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

While large pre-trained models have enabled impressive results on a variety of downstream tasks, the largest existing models still make errors, and even accurate predictions may become outdated over time. Because detecting all such failures at training time is impossible, enabling both developers and end users of such models to correct inaccurate outputs while leaving the model otherwise intact is desirable. However, the distributed, black-box nature of the representations learned by large neural networks makes producing such targeted edits difficult. If presented with only a single problematic input and new desired output, fine-tuning approaches tend to overfit; other editing algorithms are either computationally infeasible or simply ineffective when applied to very large models. To enable easy post-hoc editing at scale, we propose Model Editor Networks using Gradient Decomposition (MEND), a collection of small auxiliary editing networks that use a single desired input-output pair to make fast, local edits to a pre-trained model's behavior. MEND learns to transform the gradient obtained by standard fine-tuning, using a low-rank decomposition of the gradient to make the parameterization of this transformation tractable. MEND can be trained on a single GPU in less than a day even for 10 billion+ parameter models; once trained MEND enables rapid application of new edits to the pre-trained model. Our experiments with T5, GPT, BERT, and BART models show that MEND is the only approach to model editing that effectively edits the behavior of models with more than 10 billion parameters. Code and data available at https://sites.google.com/view/mend-editing.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

As language models regularly make mistakes when solving math problems, automated identification of errors in the reasoning process becomes increasingly significant for their scalable oversight. In this paper, we introduce ProcessBench for measuring the ability to identify erroneous steps in mathematical reasoning. It consists of 3,400 test cases, primarily focused on competition- and Olympiad-level math problems. Each test case contains a step-by-step solution with error location annotated by human experts. Models are required to identify the earliest step that contains an error, or conclude that all steps are correct. We conduct extensive evaluation on ProcessBench, involving two types of models: process reward models (PRMs) and critic models, where for the latter we prompt general language models to critique each solution step by step. We draw two main observations: (1) Existing PRMs typically fail to generalize to more challenging math problems beyond GSM8K and MATH. They underperform both critic models (i.e., prompted general language models) and our own trained PRM that is straightforwardly fine-tuned on the PRM800K dataset. (2) The best open-source model, QwQ-32B-Preview, has demonstrated the critique capability competitive with the proprietary model GPT-4o, despite that it still lags behind the reasoning-specialized o1-mini. We hope ProcessBench can foster future research in reasoning process assessment, paving the way toward scalable oversight of language models.

To evaluate code large language models (LLMs), research has relied on a few small manually curated benchmarks, such as HumanEval and MBPP, which represent a narrow part of the real-world software domains. In this work, we introduce round-trip correctness (RTC) as an alternative evaluation method. RTC allows Code LLM evaluation on a broader spectrum of real-world software domains without the need for costly human curation. RTC rests on the idea that we can ask a model to make a prediction (e.g., describe some code using natural language), feed that prediction back (e.g., synthesize code from the predicted description), and check if this round-trip leads to code that is semantically equivalent to the original input. We show how to employ RTC to evaluate code synthesis and editing. We find that RTC strongly correlates with model performance on existing narrow-domain code synthesis benchmarks while allowing us to expand to a much broader set of domains and tasks which was not previously possible without costly human annotations.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have substantially enhanced their mathematical reasoning abilities. However, these models still struggle with complex problems that require multiple reasoning steps, frequently leading to logical or numerical errors. While numerical mistakes can be largely addressed by integrating a code interpreter, identifying logical errors within intermediate steps is more challenging. Moreover, manually annotating these steps for training is not only expensive but also labor-intensive, requiring the expertise of professional annotators. In our study, we introduce an innovative approach that bypasses the need for process annotations (from human or GPTs) by utilizing the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) framework. This technique automatically generates both the process supervision and the step-level evaluation signals. Our method iteratively trains the policy and value models, leveraging the capabilities of a well-pretrained LLM to progressively enhance its mathematical reasoning skills. Furthermore, we propose an efficient inference strategy-step-level beam search, where the value model is crafted to assist the policy model (i.e., LLM) in navigating more effective reasoning paths, rather than solely relying on prior probabilities. The experimental results on both in-domain and out-of-domain datasets demonstrate that even without GPT-4 or human-annotated process supervision, our AlphaMath framework achieves comparable or superior results to previous state-of-the-art methods.

This paper describes our submission to the shared task on word/phrase level Quality Estimation (QE) in the First Conference on Statistical Machine Translation (WMT16). The objective of the shared task was to predict if the given word/phrase is a correct/incorrect (OK/BAD) translation in the given sentence. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for word level Quality Estimation using Recurrent Neural Network Language Model (RNN-LM) architecture. RNN-LMs have been found very effective in different Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. RNN-LM is mainly used for vector space language modeling for different NLP problems. For this task, we modify the architecture of RNN-LM. The modified system predicts a label (OK/BAD) in the slot rather than predicting the word. The input to the system is a word sequence, similar to the standard RNN-LM. The approach is language independent and requires only the translated text for QE. To estimate the phrase level quality, we use the output of the word level QE system.

Model ensemble has been in widespread use for Grammatical Error Correction (GEC), boosting model performance. We hypothesize that model ensemble based on the perplexity (PPL) computed by pre-trained language models (PLMs) should benefit the GEC system. To this end, we explore several ensemble strategies based on strong PLMs with four sophisticated single models. However, the performance does not improve but even gets worse after the PLM-based ensemble. This surprising result sets us doing a detailed analysis on the data and coming up with some insights on GEC. The human references of correct sentences is far from sufficient in the test data, and the gap between a correct sentence and an idiomatic one is worth our attention. Moreover, the PLM-based ensemble strategies provide an effective way to extend and improve GEC benchmark data. Our source code is available at https://github.com/JamyDon/PLM-based-CGEC-Model-Ensemble.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

With the growing interest on Large Language Models (LLMs) for fault localization and program repair, ensuring the integrity and generalizability of the LLM-based methods becomes paramount. The code in existing widely-adopted benchmarks for these tasks was written before the the bloom of LLMs and may be included in the training data of existing popular LLMs, thereby suffering from the threat of data leakage, leading to misleadingly optimistic performance metrics. To address this issue, we introduce "ConDefects", a novel dataset of real faults meticulously curated to eliminate such overlap. ConDefects contains 1,254 Java faulty programs and 1,625 Python faulty programs. All these programs are sourced from the online competition platform AtCoder and were produced between October 2021 and September 2023. We pair each fault with fault locations and the corresponding repaired code versions, making it tailored for in fault localization and program repair related research. We also provide interfaces for selecting subsets based on different time windows and coding task difficulties. While inspired by LLM-based tasks, ConDefects can be adopted for benchmarking ALL types of fault localization and program repair methods. The dataset is publicly available, and a demo video can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22j15Hj5ONk.

Error analysis in NLP models is essential to successful model development and deployment. One common approach for diagnosing errors is to identify subpopulations in the dataset where the model produces the most errors. However, existing approaches typically define subpopulations based on pre-defined features, which requires users to form hypotheses of errors in advance. To complement these approaches, we propose iSEA, an Interactive Pipeline for Semantic Error Analysis in NLP Models, which automatically discovers semantically-grounded subpopulations with high error rates in the context of a human-in-the-loop interactive system. iSEA enables model developers to learn more about their model errors through discovered subpopulations, validate the sources of errors through interactive analysis on the discovered subpopulations, and test hypotheses about model errors by defining custom subpopulations. The tool supports semantic descriptions of error-prone subpopulations at the token and concept level, as well as pre-defined higher-level features. Through use cases and expert interviews, we demonstrate how iSEA can assist error understanding and analysis.

Recent improvements in text generation have leveraged human feedback to improve the quality of the generated output. However, human feedback is not always available, especially during inference. In this work, we propose an inference time optimization method FITO to use fine-grained actionable feedback in the form of error type, error location and severity level that are predicted by a learned error pinpoint model for iterative refinement. FITO starts with an initial output, then iteratively incorporates the feedback via a refinement model that generates an improved output conditioned on the feedback. Given the uncertainty of consistent refined samples at iterative steps, we formulate iterative refinement into a local search problem and develop a simulated annealing based algorithm that balances exploration of the search space and optimization for output quality. We conduct experiments on three text generation tasks, including machine translation, long-form question answering (QA) and topical summarization. We observe 0.8 and 0.7 MetricX gain on Chinese-English and English-German translation, 4.5 and 1.8 ROUGE-L gain at long form QA and topic summarization respectively, with a single iteration of refinement. With our simulated annealing algorithm, we see further quality improvements, including up to 1.7 MetricX improvements over the baseline approach.

Generative Error Correction (GEC) has emerged as a powerful post-processing method to enhance the performance of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems. However, we show that GEC models struggle to generalize beyond the specific types of errors encountered during training, limiting their ability to correct new, unseen errors at test time, particularly in out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. This phenomenon amplifies with named entities (NEs), where, in addition to insufficient contextual information or knowledge about the NEs, novel NEs keep emerging. To address these issues, we propose DARAG (Data- and Retrieval-Augmented Generative Error Correction), a novel approach designed to improve GEC for ASR in in-domain (ID) and OOD scenarios. We augment the GEC training dataset with synthetic data generated by prompting LLMs and text-to-speech models, thereby simulating additional errors from which the model can learn. For OOD scenarios, we simulate test-time errors from new domains similarly and in an unsupervised fashion. Additionally, to better handle named entities, we introduce retrieval-augmented correction by augmenting the input with entities retrieved from a database. Our approach is simple, scalable, and both domain- and language-agnostic. We experiment on multiple datasets and settings, showing that DARAG outperforms all our baselines, achieving 8\% -- 30\% relative WER improvements in ID and 10\% -- 33\% improvements in OOD settings.

Retriever-augmented instruction-following models are attractive alternatives to fine-tuned approaches for information-seeking tasks such as question answering (QA). By simply prepending retrieved documents in its input along with an instruction, these models can be adapted to various information domains and tasks without additional fine-tuning. While the model responses tend to be natural and fluent, the additional verbosity makes traditional QA evaluation metrics such as exact match (EM) and F1 unreliable for accurately quantifying model performance. In this work, we investigate the performance of instruction-following models across three information-seeking QA tasks. We use both automatic and human evaluation to evaluate these models along two dimensions: 1) how well they satisfy the user's information need (correctness), and 2) whether they produce a response based on the provided knowledge (faithfulness). Guided by human evaluation and analysis, we highlight the shortcomings of traditional metrics for both correctness and faithfulness. We then propose simple token-overlap based and model-based metrics that reflect the true performance of these models. Our analysis reveals that instruction-following models are competitive, and sometimes even outperform fine-tuned models for correctness. However, these models struggle to stick to the provided knowledge and often hallucinate in their responses. We hope our work encourages a more holistic evaluation of instruction-following models for QA. Our code and data is available at https://github.com/McGill-NLP/instruct-qa

Most programmers make mistakes when writing code. Some of these mistakes are small and require few edits to the original program -- a class of errors recently termed last mile mistakes. These errors break the flow for experienced developers and can stump novice programmers. Existing automated repair techniques targeting this class of errors are language-specific and do not easily carry over to new languages. Transferring symbolic approaches requires substantial engineering and neural approaches require data and retraining. We introduce RING, a multilingual repair engine powered by a large language model trained on code (LLMC) such as Codex. Such a multilingual engine enables a flipped model for programming assistance, one where the programmer writes code and the AI assistance suggests fixes, compared to traditional code suggestion technology. Taking inspiration from the way programmers manually fix bugs, we show that a prompt-based strategy that conceptualizes repair as localization, transformation, and candidate ranking, can successfully repair programs in multiple languages with minimal effort. We present the first results for such a multilingual repair engine by evaluating on 6 different languages and comparing performance to language-specific repair engines. We show that RING can outperform language-specific repair engines for three of these languages.

Amid the expanding use of pre-training data, the phenomenon of benchmark dataset leakage has become increasingly prominent, exacerbated by opaque training processes and the often undisclosed inclusion of supervised data in contemporary Large Language Models (LLMs). This issue skews benchmark effectiveness and fosters potentially unfair comparisons, impeding the field's healthy development. To address this, we introduce a detection pipeline utilizing Perplexity and N-gram accuracy, two simple and scalable metrics that gauge a model's prediction precision on benchmark, to identify potential data leakages. By analyzing 31 LLMs under the context of mathematical reasoning, we reveal substantial instances of training even test set misuse, resulting in potentially unfair comparisons. These findings prompt us to offer several recommendations regarding model documentation, benchmark setup, and future evaluations. Notably, we propose the "Benchmark Transparency Card" to encourage clear documentation of benchmark utilization, promoting transparency and healthy developments of LLMs. we have made our leaderboard, pipeline implementation, and model predictions publicly available, fostering future research.

Neural networks -- especially those that use large, pre-trained language models -- have improved search engines in various ways. Most prominently, they can estimate the relevance of a passage or document to a user's query. In this work, we depart from this direction by exploring whether neural networks can effectively predict which of a document's passages are unlikely to be relevant to any query submitted to the search engine. We refer to this query-agnostic estimation of passage relevance as a passage's quality. We find that our novel methods for estimating passage quality allow passage corpora to be pruned considerably while maintaining statistically equivalent effectiveness; our best methods can consistently prune >25% of passages in a corpora, across various retrieval pipelines. Such substantial pruning reduces the operating costs of neural search engines in terms of computing resources, power usage, and carbon footprint -- both when processing queries (thanks to a smaller index size) and when indexing (lightweight models can prune low-quality passages prior to the costly dense or learned sparse encoding step). This work sets the stage for developing more advanced neural "learning-what-to-index" methods.

Spelling irregularities, known now as spelling mistakes, have been found for several centuries. As humans, we are able to understand most of the misspelled words based on their location in the sentence, perceived pronunciation, and context. Unlike humans, computer systems do not possess the convenient auto complete functionality of which human brains are capable. While many programs provide spelling correction functionality, many systems do not take context into account. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence systems function in the way they are trained on. With many current Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems trained on grammatically correct text data, many are vulnerable against adversarial examples, yet correctly spelled text processing is crucial for learning. In this paper, we investigate how spelling errors can be corrected in context, with a pre-trained language model BERT. We present two experiments, based on BERT and the edit distance algorithm, for ranking and selecting candidate corrections. The results of our experiments demonstrated that when combined properly, contextual word embeddings of BERT and edit distance are capable of effectively correcting spelling errors.

This paper surveys research works in the quickly advancing field of instruction tuning (IT), a crucial technique to enhance the capabilities and controllability of large language models (LLMs). Instruction tuning refers to the process of further training LLMs on a dataset consisting of (instruction, output) pairs in a supervised fashion, which bridges the gap between the next-word prediction objective of LLMs and the users' objective of having LLMs adhere to human instructions. In this work, we make a systematic review of the literature, including the general methodology of IT, the construction of IT datasets, the training of IT models, and applications to different modalities, domains and applications, along with an analysis on aspects that influence the outcome of IT (e.g., generation of instruction outputs, size of the instruction dataset, etc). We also review the potential pitfalls of IT along with criticism against it, along with efforts pointing out current deficiencies of existing strategies and suggest some avenues for fruitful research.

Training a model for grammatical error correction (GEC) requires a set of labeled ungrammatical / grammatical sentence pairs, but manually annotating such pairs can be expensive. Recently, the Break-It-Fix-It (BIFI) framework has demonstrated strong results on learning to repair a broken program without any labeled examples, but this relies on a perfect critic (e.g., a compiler) that returns whether an example is valid or not, which does not exist for the GEC task. In this work, we show how to leverage a pretrained language model (LM) in defining an LM-Critic, which judges a sentence to be grammatical if the LM assigns it a higher probability than its local perturbations. We apply this LM-Critic and BIFI along with a large set of unlabeled sentences to bootstrap realistic ungrammatical / grammatical pairs for training a corrector. We evaluate our approach on GEC datasets across multiple domains (CoNLL-2014, BEA-2019, GMEG-wiki and GMEG-yahoo) and show that it outperforms existing methods in both the unsupervised setting (+7.7 F0.5) and the supervised setting (+0.5 F0.5).

Contemporary LLMs pretrained on code are capable of succeeding at a wide variety of programming tasks. However, their performance is very sensitive to syntactic features, such as the names of variables and types, the structure of code, and presence of type hints. We contribute an inference-time technique to make CodeLLMs more robust to syntactic distractors that are semantically irrelevant. Our methodology relies on activation steering, which involves editing internal model activations to steer the model towards the correct prediction. We contribute a novel way to construct steering vectors by taking inspiration from mutation testing, which constructs minimal semantics-breaking code edits. In contrast, we construct steering vectors from semantics-preserving code edits. We apply our approach to the task of type prediction for the gradually typed languages Python and TypeScript. This approach corrects up to 90% of type mispredictions. Finally, we show that steering vectors calculated from Python activations reliably correct type mispredictions in TypeScript, and vice versa. This result suggests that LLMs may be learning to transfer knowledge of types across programming languages.

Peer reviewing is a central component in the scientific publishing process. We present the first public dataset of scientific peer reviews available for research purposes (PeerRead v1) providing an opportunity to study this important artifact. The dataset consists of 14.7K paper drafts and the corresponding accept/reject decisions in top-tier venues including ACL, NIPS and ICLR. The dataset also includes 10.7K textual peer reviews written by experts for a subset of the papers. We describe the data collection process and report interesting observed phenomena in the peer reviews. We also propose two novel NLP tasks based on this dataset and provide simple baseline models. In the first task, we show that simple models can predict whether a paper is accepted with up to 21% error reduction compared to the majority baseline. In the second task, we predict the numerical scores of review aspects and show that simple models can outperform the mean baseline for aspects with high variance such as 'originality' and 'impact'.

Thanks to the large pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP, we can craft a zero-shot classifier by "prompt", e.g., the confidence score of an image being "[CLASS]" can be obtained by using the VLM provided similarity measure between the image and the prompt sentence "a photo of a [CLASS]". Therefore, prompt shows a great potential for fast adaptation of VLMs to downstream tasks if we fine-tune the prompt-based similarity measure. However, we find a common failure that improper fine-tuning may not only undermine the prompt's inherent prediction for the task-related classes, but also for other classes in the VLM vocabulary. Existing methods still address this problem by using traditional anti-overfitting techniques such as early stopping and data augmentation, which lack a principled solution specific to prompt. We present Prompt-aligned Gradient, dubbed ProGrad, to prevent prompt tuning from forgetting the the general knowledge learned from VLMs. In particular, ProGrad only updates the prompt whose gradient is aligned (or non-conflicting) to the "general direction", which is represented as the gradient of the KL loss of the pre-defined prompt prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate the stronger few-shot generalization ability of ProGrad over state-of-the-art prompt tuning methods. Codes are available at https://github.com/BeierZhu/Prompt-align.

Code quality is and will be a crucial factor while developing new software code, requiring appropriate tools to ensure functional and reliable code. Machine learning techniques are still rarely used for software engineering tools, missing out the potential benefits of its application. Natural language processing has shown the potential to process text data regarding a variety of tasks. We argue, that such models can also show similar benefits for software code processing. In this paper, we investigate how models used for natural language processing can be trained upon software code. We introduce a data retrieval pipeline for software code and train a model upon Java software code. The resulting model, JavaBERT, shows a high accuracy on the masked language modeling task showing its potential for software engineering tools.

Speculative decoding is a pivotal technique to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a smaller draft model to predict the target model's outputs. However, its efficacy can be limited due to the low predictive accuracy of the draft model, particularly when faced with diverse text inputs and a significant capability gap between the draft and target models. We introduce online speculative decoding (OSD) to address this challenge. The main idea is to continually update (multiple) draft model(s) on observed user query data using the abundant excess computational power in an LLM serving cluster. Given that LLM inference is memory-bounded, the surplus computational power in a typical LLM serving cluster can be repurposed for online retraining of draft models, thereby making the training cost-neutral. Since the query distribution of an LLM service is relatively simple, retraining on query distribution enables the draft model to more accurately predict the target model's outputs, particularly on data originating from query distributions. As the draft model evolves online, it aligns with the query distribution in real time, mitigating distribution shifts. We develop a prototype of online speculative decoding based on online knowledge distillation and evaluate it using both synthetic and real query data on several popular LLMs. The results show a substantial increase in the token acceptance rate by 0.1 to 0.65, which translates into 1.22x to 3.06x latency reduction.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

We present the Multilingual Amazon Reviews Corpus (MARC), a large-scale collection of Amazon reviews for multilingual text classification. The corpus contains reviews in English, Japanese, German, French, Spanish, and Chinese, which were collected between 2015 and 2019. Each record in the dataset contains the review text, the review title, the star rating, an anonymized reviewer ID, an anonymized product ID, and the coarse-grained product category (e.g., 'books', 'appliances', etc.) The corpus is balanced across the 5 possible star ratings, so each rating constitutes 20% of the reviews in each language. For each language, there are 200,000, 5,000, and 5,000 reviews in the training, development, and test sets, respectively. We report baseline results for supervised text classification and zero-shot cross-lingual transfer learning by fine-tuning a multilingual BERT model on reviews data. We propose the use of mean absolute error (MAE) instead of classification accuracy for this task, since MAE accounts for the ordinal nature of the ratings.

Since large language models have approached human-level performance on many tasks, it has become increasingly harder for researchers to find tasks that are still challenging to the models. Failure cases usually come from the long-tail distribution - data that an oracle language model could assign a probability on the lower end of its distribution. Current methodology such as prompt engineering or crowdsourcing are insufficient for creating long-tail examples because humans are constrained by cognitive bias. We propose a Logic-Induced-Knowledge-Search (LINK) framework for systematically generating long-tail knowledge statements. Grounded by a symbolic rule, we search for long-tail values for each variable of the rule by first prompting a LLM, then verifying the correctness of the values with a critic, and lastly pushing for the long-tail distribution with a reranker. With this framework we construct a dataset, Logic-Induced-Long-Tail (LINT), consisting of 200 symbolic rules and 50K knowledge statements spanning across four domains. Human annotations find that 84% of the statements in LINT are factually correct. In contrast, ChatGPT and GPT4 struggle with directly generating long-tail statements under the guidance of logic rules, each only getting 56% and 78% of their statements correct. Moreover, their "long-tail" generations in fact fall into the higher likelihood range, and thus are not really long-tail. Our findings suggest that LINK is effective for generating data in the long-tail distribution while enforcing quality. LINT can be useful for systematically evaluating LLMs' capabilities in the long-tail distribution. We challenge the models with a simple entailment classification task using samples from LINT. We find that ChatGPT and GPT4's capability in identifying incorrect knowledge drop by ~3% in the long-tail distribution compared to head distribution.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

With the advent of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3, a natural question is the extent to which these models can be utilized for source code optimization. This paper presents methodologically stringent case studies applied to well-known open source python libraries pillow and numpy. We find that contemporary LLM ChatGPT-4 (state September and October 2023) is surprisingly adept at optimizing energy and compute efficiency. However, this is only the case in interactive use, with a human expert in the loop. Aware of experimenter bias, we document our qualitative approach in detail, and provide transcript and source code. We start by providing a detailed description of our approach in conversing with the LLM to optimize the _getextrema function in the pillow library, and a quantitative evaluation of the performance improvement. To demonstrate qualitative replicability, we report further attempts on another locus in the pillow library, and one code locus in the numpy library, to demonstrate generalization within and beyond a library. In all attempts, the performance improvement is significant (factor up to 38). We have also not omitted reporting of failed attempts (there were none). We conclude that LLMs are a promising tool for code optimization in open source libraries, but that the human expert in the loop is essential for success. Nonetheless, we were surprised by how few iterations were required to achieve substantial performance improvements that were not obvious to the expert in the loop. We would like bring attention to the qualitative nature of this study, more robust quantitative studies would need to introduce a layer of selecting experts in a representative sample -- we invite the community to collaborate.

Millions of open-source projects with numerous bug fixes are available in code repositories. This proliferation of software development histories can be leveraged to learn how to fix common programming bugs. To explore such a potential, we perform an empirical study to assess the feasibility of using Neural Machine Translation techniques for learning bug-fixing patches for real defects. First, we mine millions of bug-fixes from the change histories of projects hosted on GitHub, in order to extract meaningful examples of such bug-fixes. Next, we abstract the buggy and corresponding fixed code, and use them to train an Encoder-Decoder model able to translate buggy code into its fixed version. In our empirical investigation we found that such a model is able to fix thousands of unique buggy methods in the wild. Overall, this model is capable of predicting fixed patches generated by developers in 9-50% of the cases, depending on the number of candidate patches we allow it to generate. Also, the model is able to emulate a variety of different Abstract Syntax Tree operations and generate candidate patches in a split second.

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

This paper presents an improved LLM based model for Grammatical Error Detection (GED), which is a very challenging and equally important problem for many applications. The traditional approach to GED involved hand-designed features, but recently, Neural Networks (NN) have automated the discovery of these features, improving performance in GED. Traditional rule-based systems have an F1 score of 0.50-0.60 and earlier machine learning models give an F1 score of 0.65-0.75, including decision trees and simple neural networks. Previous deep learning models, for example, Bi-LSTM, have reported F1 scores within the range from 0.80 to 0.90. In our study, we have fine-tuned various transformer models using the Lang8 dataset rigorously cleaned by us. In our experiments, the BERT-base-uncased model gave an impressive performance with an F1 score of 0.91 and accuracy of 98.49% on training data and 90.53% on testing data, also showcasing the importance of data cleaning. Increasing model size using BERT-large-uncased or RoBERTa-large did not give any noticeable improvements in performance or advantage for this task, underscoring that larger models are not always better. Our results clearly show how far rigorous data cleaning and simple transformer-based models can go toward significantly improving the quality of GED.

There is increasing evidence that question-answering (QA) systems with Large Language Models (LLMs), which employ a knowledge graph/semantic representation of an enterprise SQL database (i.e. Text-to-SPARQL), achieve higher accuracy compared to systems that answer questions directly on SQL databases (i.e. Text-to-SQL). Our previous benchmark research showed that by using a knowledge graph, the accuracy improved from 16% to 54%. The question remains: how can we further improve the accuracy and reduce the error rate? Building on the observations of our previous research where the inaccurate LLM-generated SPARQL queries followed incorrect paths, we present an approach that consists of 1) Ontology-based Query Check (OBQC): detects errors by leveraging the ontology of the knowledge graph to check if the LLM-generated SPARQL query matches the semantic of ontology and 2) LLM Repair: use the error explanations with an LLM to repair the SPARQL query. Using the chat with the data benchmark, our primary finding is that our approach increases the overall accuracy to 72% including an additional 8% of "I don't know" unknown results. Thus, the overall error rate is 20%. These results provide further evidence that investing knowledge graphs, namely the ontology, provides higher accuracy for LLM powered question answering systems.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by LLMs, have also raised severe concerns for the trustworthiness of LLMs', especially in safety-, security- and reliability-sensitive scenarios, potentially hindering real-world adoptions. While uncertainty estimation has shown its potential for interpreting the prediction risks made by general machine learning (ML) models, little is known about whether and to what extent it can help explore an LLM's capabilities and counteract its undesired behavior. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we initiate an exploratory study on the risk assessment of LLMs from the lens of uncertainty. In particular, we experiment with twelve uncertainty estimation methods and four LLMs on four prominent natural language processing (NLP) tasks to investigate to what extent uncertainty estimation techniques could help characterize the prediction risks of LLMs. Our findings validate the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation for revealing LLMs' uncertain/non-factual predictions. In addition to general NLP tasks, we extensively conduct experiments with four LLMs for code generation on two datasets. We find that uncertainty estimation can potentially uncover buggy programs generated by LLMs. Insights from our study shed light on future design and development for reliable LLMs, facilitating further research toward enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs.

We introduce a large-scale dataset of math word problems and an interpretable neural math problem solver that learns to map problems to operation programs. Due to annotation challenges, current datasets in this domain have been either relatively small in scale or did not offer precise operational annotations over diverse problem types. We introduce a new representation language to model precise operation programs corresponding to each math problem that aim to improve both the performance and the interpretability of the learned models. Using this representation language, our new dataset, MathQA, significantly enhances the AQuA dataset with fully-specified operational programs. We additionally introduce a neural sequence-to-program model enhanced with automatic problem categorization. Our experiments show improvements over competitive baselines in our MathQA as well as the AQuA dataset. The results are still significantly lower than human performance indicating that the dataset poses new challenges for future research. Our dataset is available at: https://math-qa.github.io/math-QA/

Evaluating the output of Large Language Models (LLMs) is one of the most critical aspects of building a performant compound AI system. Since the output from LLMs propagate to downstream steps, identifying LLM errors is crucial to system performance. A common task for LLMs in AI systems is tool use. While there are several benchmark environments for evaluating LLMs on this task, they typically only give a success rate without any explanation of the failure cases. To solve this problem, we introduce SpecTool, a new benchmark to identify error patterns in LLM output on tool-use tasks. Our benchmark data set comprises of queries from diverse environments that can be used to test for the presence of seven newly characterized error patterns. Using SPECTOOL , we show that even the most prominent LLMs exhibit these error patterns in their outputs. Researchers can use the analysis and insights from SPECTOOL to guide their error mitigation strategies.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can correct their self-generated responses, but a decline in accuracy after self-correction is also witnessed. To have a deeper understanding of self-correction, we endeavor to decompose, evaluate, and analyze the self-correction behaviors of LLMs. By enumerating and analyzing answer correctness before and after self-correction, we decompose the self-correction capability into confidence (being confident to correct answers) and critique (turning wrong answers to correct) capabilities, and propose two metrics from a probabilistic perspective to measure these 2 capabilities, along with another metric for overall self-correction capability evaluation. Based on our decomposition and evaluation metrics, we conduct extensive experiments and draw some empirical conclusions. For example, we find different models can exhibit distinct behaviors: some models are confident while others are more critical. We also find the trade-off between the two capabilities (i.e. improving one can lead to a decline in the other) when manipulating model self-correction behavior by prompts or in-context learning. Further, we find a simple yet efficient strategy to improve self-correction capability by transforming Supervision Fine-Tuning (SFT) data format, and our strategy outperforms vanilla SFT in both capabilities and achieves much higher accuracy after self-correction. Our code will be publicly available on GitHub.

A key initial step in several natural language processing (NLP) tasks involves embedding phrases of text to vectors of real numbers that preserve semantic meaning. To that end, several methods have been recently proposed with impressive results on semantic similarity tasks. However, all of these approaches assume that perfect transcripts are available when generating the embeddings. While this is a reasonable assumption for analysis of written text, it is limiting for analysis of transcribed text. In this paper we investigate the effects of word substitution errors, such as those coming from automatic speech recognition errors (ASR), on several state-of-the-art sentence embedding methods. To do this, we propose a new simulator that allows the experimenter to induce ASR-plausible word substitution errors in a corpus at a desired word error rate. We use this simulator to evaluate the robustness of several sentence embedding methods. Our results show that pre-trained neural sentence encoders are both robust to ASR errors and perform well on textual similarity tasks after errors are introduced. Meanwhile, unweighted averages of word vectors perform well with perfect transcriptions, but their performance degrades rapidly on textual similarity tasks for text with word substitution errors.

Research shows that grammatical mistakes in a sentence can be corrected by translating it to another language and back using neural machine translation with language models. We investigate whether this correction capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) extends to Automatic Program Repair (APR). Current generative models for APR are pre-trained on source code and fine-tuned for repair. This paper proposes bypassing the fine-tuning step and using Round-Trip Translation (RTT): translation of code from one programming language to another programming or natural language, and back. We hypothesize that RTT with LLMs restores the most commonly seen patterns in code during pre-training, i.e., performs a regression toward the mean, which removes bugs as they are a form of noise w.r.t. the more frequent, natural, bug-free code in the training data. To test this hypothesis, we employ eight recent LLMs pre-trained on code, including the latest GPT versions, and four common program repair benchmarks in Java. We find that RTT with English as an intermediate language repaired 101 of 164 bugs with GPT-4 on the HumanEval-Java dataset. Moreover, 46 of these are unique bugs that are not repaired by other LLMs fine-tuned for APR. Our findings highlight the viability of round-trip translation with LLMs as a technique for automated program repair and its potential for research in software engineering. Keywords: automated program repair, large language model, machine translation

Recently, Instruction fine-tuning has risen to prominence as a potential method for enhancing the zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) on novel tasks. This technique has shown an exceptional ability to boost the performance of moderately sized LLMs, sometimes even reaching performance levels comparable to those of much larger model variants. The focus is on the robustness of instruction-tuned LLMs to seen and unseen tasks. We conducted an exploration of six models including Alpaca, Vicuna, WizardLM, and Traditional Task-oriented Models(Flan-T5-XL/XXL, T0++) using real-world relation extraction datasets as case studies. We carried out a comprehensive evaluation of these instruction-following LLMs which have been tuned based on open-domain instructions and task-oriented instructions. The main discussion is their performance and robustness towards instructions. We have observed that in most cases, the model's performance in dealing with unfamiliar instructions tends to worsen significantly, and the robustness of the model for RE instructions deteriorates compared to QA. Further, we discovered that up until a certain parameter size threshold (3B), the performance of the FLAN-T5 model improves as the parameter count increases. The robustness of different scales of FLAN-T5 models to RE instruction is worse than the robustness to QA instruction.

Machine learning methods have proven useful in transcribing historical data. However, results from even highly accurate methods require manual verification and correction. Such manual review can be time-consuming and expensive, therefore the objective of this paper was to make it more efficient. Previously, we used machine learning to transcribe 2.3 million handwritten occupation codes from the Norwegian 1950 census with high accuracy (97%). We manually reviewed the 90,000 (3%) codes with the lowest model confidence. We allocated those 90,000 codes to human reviewers, who used our annotation tool to review the codes. To assess reviewer agreement, some codes were assigned to multiple reviewers. We then analyzed the review results to understand the relationship between accuracy improvements and effort. Additionally, we interviewed the reviewers to improve the workflow. The reviewers corrected 62.8% of the labels and agreed with the model label in 31.9% of cases. About 0.2% of the images could not be assigned a label, while for 5.1% the reviewers were uncertain, or they assigned an invalid label. 9,000 images were independently reviewed by multiple reviewers, resulting in an agreement of 86.43% and disagreement of 8.96%. We learned that our automatic transcription is biased towards the most frequent codes, with a higher degree of misclassification for the lowest frequency codes. Our interview findings show that the reviewers did internal quality control and found our custom tool well-suited. So, only one reviewer is needed, but they should report uncertainty.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized code generation but require significant resources and often over-generalize, limiting their task-specific efficiency. Fine-tuning smaller, open-source LLMs provides a cost-effective alternative. However, standard supervised approaches rely only on correct examples, missing valuable insights from failures. We introduce CodeLutra, a framework that leverages both correct and incorrect code attempts. Instead of using only correct solutions, CodeLutra applies iterative preference-based refinement, comparing successful and failed outputs to better approximate desired results. This approach narrows the performance gap with state-of-the-art larger models without requiring massive datasets or auxiliary models. For instance, on a challenging data science coding task, using only 500 samples improved Llama-3-8B's accuracy from 28.2% to 48.6%, approaching GPT-4's level. By learning from both successes and mistakes, CodeLutra provides a scalable and efficient path to high-quality code generation, making smaller open-source models more competitive with leading closed-source alternatives.

How can "weak teacher models" such as average human annotators or existing AI systems, effectively supervise LLMs to improve performance on hard reasoning tasks, especially those that challenge and requires expertise or daily practice from the teacher models? In this paper, we seek for empirical answers to this question by investigating various data-driven strategies that offer supervision data at different quality levels upon tasks of varying complexity. Two intuitive strategies emerge for teacher models to provide supervision during alignment training: 1) using lower-quality supervision from complete tasks that match the difficulty of the target reasoning tasks, and 2) leveraging higher-quality supervision from easier subtasks that are less challenging. Interestingly, we find that even when the outcome error rate for hard task supervision is high (e.g., 90\%), training on such data can outperform perfectly correct supervision on easier subtasks on multiple hard math benchmarks. We further identify a more critical factor influencing training performance: step-wise error rates, which indicate the severity of errors in solutions. Specifically, training on hard task supervision with the same outcome error rates but disparate step-wise error rates can lead to a 30\% accuracy gap on MATH benchmark. Our results also reveal that supplementing hard task supervision with the corresponding subtask supervision can yield notable performance improvements than simply combining rephrased hard full task supervision, suggesting new avenues for data augmentation. Data and code are released at https://github.com/hexuan21/Weak-to-Strong.

We expect the generalization error to improve with more samples from a similar task, and to deteriorate with more samples from an out-of-distribution (OOD) task. In this work, we show a counter-intuitive phenomenon: the generalization error of a task can be a non-monotonic function of the number of OOD samples. As the number of OOD samples increases, the generalization error on the target task improves before deteriorating beyond a threshold. In other words, there is value in training on small amounts of OOD data. We use Fisher's Linear Discriminant on synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks such as MNIST, CIFAR-10, CINIC-10, PACS and DomainNet to demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon. In the idealistic setting where we know which samples are OOD, we show that these non-monotonic trends can be exploited using an appropriately weighted objective of the target and OOD empirical risk. While its practical utility is limited, this does suggest that if we can detect OOD samples, then there may be ways to benefit from them. When we do not know which samples are OOD, we show how a number of go-to strategies such as data-augmentation, hyper-parameter optimization, and pre-training are not enough to ensure that the target generalization error does not deteriorate with the number of OOD samples in the dataset.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

In this paper, we study Chinese Spelling Correction (CSC) as a joint decision made by two separate models: a language model and an error model. Through empirical analysis, we find that fine-tuning BERT tends to over-fit the error model while under-fit the language model, resulting in poor generalization to out-of-distribution error patterns. Given that BERT is the backbone of most CSC models, this phenomenon has a significant negative impact. To address this issue, we are releasing a multi-domain benchmark LEMON, with higher quality and diversity than existing benchmarks, to allow a comprehensive assessment of the open domain generalization of CSC models. Then, we demonstrate that a very simple strategy, randomly masking 20\% non-error tokens from the input sequence during fine-tuning is sufficient for learning a much better language model without sacrificing the error model. This technique can be applied to any model architecture and achieves new state-of-the-art results on SIGHAN, ECSpell, and LEMON.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Equipped with the capability to call functions, modern large language models (LLMs) can leverage external tools for addressing a range of tasks unattainable through language skills alone. However, the effective execution of these tools relies heavily not just on the advanced capabilities of LLMs but also on precise user instructions, which often cannot be ensured in the real world. To evaluate the performance of LLMs tool-use under imperfect instructions, we meticulously examine the real-world instructions queried from users, analyze the error patterns, and build a challenging tool-use benchmark called Noisy ToolBench (NoisyToolBench). We find that due to the next-token prediction training objective, LLMs tend to arbitrarily generate the missed argument, which may lead to hallucinations and risks. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework, Ask-when-Needed (AwN), which prompts LLMs to ask questions to users whenever they encounter obstacles due to unclear instructions. Moreover, to reduce the manual labor involved in user-LLM interaction and assess LLMs performance in tool utilization from both accuracy and efficiency perspectives, we design an automated evaluation tool named ToolEvaluator. Our experiments demonstrate that the AwN significantly outperforms existing frameworks for tool learning in the NoisyToolBench. We will release all related code and datasets to support future research.

While scaling training compute has led to remarkable improvements in large language models (LLMs), scaling inference compute has not yet yielded analogous gains. We hypothesize that a core missing component is a lack of diverse LLM outputs, leading to inefficient search due to models repeatedly sampling highly similar, yet incorrect generations. We empirically demonstrate that this lack of diversity can be mitigated by searching over candidate plans for solving a problem in natural language. Based on this insight, we propose PLANSEARCH, a novel search algorithm which shows strong results across HumanEval+, MBPP+, and LiveCodeBench (a contamination-free benchmark for competitive coding). PLANSEARCH generates a diverse set of observations about the problem and then uses these observations to construct plans for solving the problem. By searching over plans in natural language rather than directly over code solutions, PLANSEARCH explores a significantly more diverse range of potential solutions compared to baseline search methods. Using PLANSEARCH on top of Claude 3.5 Sonnet achieves a state-of-the-art pass@200 of 77.0% on LiveCodeBench, outperforming both the best score achieved without search (pass@1 = 41.4%) and using standard repeated sampling (pass@200 = 60.6%). Finally, we show that, across all models, search algorithms, and benchmarks analyzed, we can accurately predict performance gains due to search as a direct function of the diversity over generated ideas.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

In natural language processing, transformer-based large language models (LLMs) like GPT-x models developed by OpenAI have revolutionized the landscape. Despite their impressive capabilities, these models often encounter challenges when handling tasks that differ from their training data, resulting in compromised performance. To address this, few-shot learning has emerged as a valuable technique, allowing LLMs to adapt with minimal task-specific data. One innovative strategy, known as Chain-of-Thought Prompting (CoT), has been introduced to guide LLMs in revealing cognitive processes during multi-step reasoning. In this paper, we propose Code Chain-of-Thought~(CodeCoT), which consists of two components: the Vanilla CodeCoT and the Self-exam CodeCoT. The latter incorporates self-examination, empowering the model to iteratively generate code, formulate test cases, and refine its outputs. Specifically, the process entails the generation of test examples by the model corresponding to the code it is tasked to implement. If it fails on the test examples, then it regenerates the code based on the erroneous code and associated error types. Through comprehensive experiments, we observed that both techniques significantly enhance code generation accuracy across various LLM variants. Our evaluation results reveal that CodeCoT improves the code generation effectiveness, including an unprecedented pass@1 accuracy of 79.27\% using the Self-exam CodeCoT approach on the gpt-3.5-turbo-0613 model in the HumanEval dataset.

Given the rapid ascent of large language models (LLMs), we study the question: (How) can large language models help in reviewing of scientific papers or proposals? We first conduct some pilot studies where we find that (i) GPT-4 outperforms other LLMs (Bard, Vicuna, Koala, Alpaca, LLaMa, Dolly, OpenAssistant, StableLM), and (ii) prompting with a specific question (e.g., to identify errors) outperforms prompting to simply write a review. With these insights, we study the use of LLMs (specifically, GPT-4) for three tasks: 1. Identifying errors: We construct 13 short computer science papers each with a deliberately inserted error, and ask the LLM to check for the correctness of these papers. We observe that the LLM finds errors in 7 of them, spanning both mathematical and conceptual errors. 2. Verifying checklists: We task the LLM to verify 16 closed-ended checklist questions in the respective sections of 15 NeurIPS 2022 papers. We find that across 119 {checklist question, paper} pairs, the LLM had an 86.6% accuracy. 3. Choosing the "better" paper: We generate 10 pairs of abstracts, deliberately designing each pair in such a way that one abstract was clearly superior than the other. The LLM, however, struggled to discern these relatively straightforward distinctions accurately, committing errors in its evaluations for 6 out of the 10 pairs. Based on these experiments, we think that LLMs have a promising use as reviewing assistants for specific reviewing tasks, but not (yet) for complete evaluations of papers or proposals.

Grammatical error correction aims to correct ungrammatical sentences automatically. Recently, some work has demonstrated the excellent capabilities of closed-source Large Language Models (LLMs, e.g., ChatGPT) in grammatical error correction. However, the potential of open-source LLMs remains unexplored. In this paper, we introduced GrammarGPT, an open-source LLM, to preliminary explore its potential for native Chinese grammatical error correction. The core recipe of GrammarGPT is to leverage the hybrid dataset of ChatGPT-generated and human-annotated. For grammatical errors with clues, we proposed a heuristic method to guide ChatGPT to generate ungrammatical sentences by providing those clues. For grammatical errors without clues, we collected ungrammatical sentences from publicly available websites and manually corrected them. In addition, we employed an error-invariant augmentation method to enhance the ability of the model to correct native Chinese grammatical errors. We ultimately constructed about 1k parallel data and utilized these data to fine-tune open-source LLMs (e.g., Phoenix, released by The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen) with instruction tuning. The experimental results show that GrammarGPT outperforms the existing SOTA system significantly. Although model parameters are 20x larger than the SOTA baseline, the required amount of data for instruction tuning is 1200x smaller, illustrating the potential of open-source LLMs on native CGEC. Our GrammarGPT ranks 3^{rd} on NLPCC2023 SharedTask1, demonstrating our approach's effectiveness. The code and data are available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/GrammarGPT.

In this paper, we cast the problem of task underspecification in causal terms, and develop a method for empirical measurement of spurious associations between gender and gender-neutral entities for unmodified large language models, detecting previously unreported spurious correlations. We then describe a lightweight method to exploit the resulting spurious associations for prediction task uncertainty classification, achieving over 90% accuracy on a Winogender Schemas challenge set. Finally, we generalize our approach to address a wider range of prediction tasks and provide open-source demos for each method described here.

Available training data for named entity recognition (NER) often contains a significant percentage of incorrect labels for entity types and entity boundaries. Such label noise poses challenges for supervised learning and may significantly deteriorate model quality. To address this, prior work proposed various noise-robust learning approaches capable of learning from data with partially incorrect labels. These approaches are typically evaluated using simulated noise where the labels in a clean dataset are automatically corrupted. However, as we show in this paper, this leads to unrealistic noise that is far easier to handle than real noise caused by human error or semi-automatic annotation. To enable the study of the impact of various types of real noise, we introduce NoiseBench, an NER benchmark consisting of clean training data corrupted with 6 types of real noise, including expert errors, crowdsourcing errors, automatic annotation errors and LLM errors. We present an analysis that shows that real noise is significantly more challenging than simulated noise, and show that current state-of-the-art models for noise-robust learning fall far short of their theoretically achievable upper bound. We release NoiseBench to the research community.

From the perspective of content safety issues, alignment has shown to limit large language models' (LLMs) harmful content generation. This intentional method of reinforcing models to not respond to certain user inputs seem to be present in many modern open-source instruction tuning datasets such as OpenAssistant or Guanaco. We introduce a novel insight to an instruction-tuned model's performance affected by the presence of alignment in supervised fine-tuning dataset. To be specific, we noticed that alignment acts as if it is poisoning the instruction dataset. Experimentally, we demonstrate that aligned answers significantly worsen the performance of the resulting fine-tuned model's on various reasoning benchmarks such as Big Bench (BBH), Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU), Human Eval, and Discrete Reasoning Over Paragraphs (DROP), performing worse than the counterpart tuned without alignment by 4-33%.

Large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to scale high-quality personalized education to all. A promising approach towards this means is to build dialog tutoring models that scaffold students' problem-solving. However, even though existing LLMs perform well in solving reasoning questions, they struggle to precisely detect student's errors and tailor their feedback to these errors. Inspired by real-world teaching practice where teachers identify student errors and customize their response based on them, we focus on verifying student solutions and show how grounding to such verification improves the overall quality of tutor response generation. We collect a dataset of 1K stepwise math reasoning chains with the first error step annotated by teachers. We show empirically that finding the mistake in a student solution is challenging for current models. We propose and evaluate several verifiers for detecting these errors. Using both automatic and human evaluation we show that the student solution verifiers steer the generation model towards highly targeted responses to student errors which are more often correct with less hallucinations compared to existing baselines.

Drafting-then-verifying decoding methods such as speculative decoding are widely adopted training-free methods to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs). Instead of employing an autoregressive process to decode tokens sequentially, speculative decoding initially creates drafts with an efficient small model. Then LLMs are required to conduct verification and correction in a non-autoregressive fashion to minimize time overhead. Generating longer drafts can lead to even more significant speedups once verified, but also incurs substantial trial and error costs if it fails. Suffering from the high verification failure probability, existing decoding methods cannot draft too much content for verification at one time, achieving sub-optimal inference acceleration. In this paper, we introduce Ouroboros, which constructs a phrase candidate pool from the verification process of LLMs to provide candidates for draft generation of the small model. Thereby, Ouroboros can further improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the initial drafts. The experimental results on typical text generation tasks show that Ouroboros achieves speedups of up to 1.9x and 2.8x compared to lookahead decoding and speculative decoding, respectively. The source code of Ouroboros is available at https://github.com/thunlp/Ouroboros.

Automated detection of software vulnerabilities is a fundamental problem in software security. Existing program analysis techniques either suffer from high false positives or false negatives. Recent progress in Deep Learning (DL) has resulted in a surge of interest in applying DL for automated vulnerability detection. Several recent studies have demonstrated promising results achieving an accuracy of up to 95% at detecting vulnerabilities. In this paper, we ask, "how well do the state-of-the-art DL-based techniques perform in a real-world vulnerability prediction scenario?". To our surprise, we find that their performance drops by more than 50%. A systematic investigation of what causes such precipitous performance drop reveals that existing DL-based vulnerability prediction approaches suffer from challenges with the training data (e.g., data duplication, unrealistic distribution of vulnerable classes, etc.) and with the model choices (e.g., simple token-based models). As a result, these approaches often do not learn features related to the actual cause of the vulnerabilities. Instead, they learn unrelated artifacts from the dataset (e.g., specific variable/function names, etc.). Leveraging these empirical findings, we demonstrate how a more principled approach to data collection and model design, based on realistic settings of vulnerability prediction, can lead to better solutions. The resulting tools perform significantly better than the studied baseline: up to 33.57% boost in precision and 128.38% boost in recall compared to the best performing model in the literature. Overall, this paper elucidates existing DL-based vulnerability prediction systems' potential issues and draws a roadmap for future DL-based vulnerability prediction research. In that spirit, we make available all the artifacts supporting our results: https://git.io/Jf6IA.

Several studies showed that Large Language Models (LLMs) can answer medical questions correctly, even outperforming the average human score in some medical exams. However, to our knowledge, no study has been conducted to assess the ability of language models to validate existing or generated medical text for correctness and consistency. In this paper, we introduce MEDEC (https://github.com/abachaa/MEDEC), the first publicly available benchmark for medical error detection and correction in clinical notes, covering five types of errors (Diagnosis, Management, Treatment, Pharmacotherapy, and Causal Organism). MEDEC consists of 3,848 clinical texts, including 488 clinical notes from three US hospital systems that were not previously seen by any LLM. The dataset has been used for the MEDIQA-CORR shared task to evaluate seventeen participating systems [Ben Abacha et al., 2024]. In this paper, we describe the data creation methods and we evaluate recent LLMs (e.g., o1-preview, GPT-4, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Gemini 2.0 Flash) for the tasks of detecting and correcting medical errors requiring both medical knowledge and reasoning capabilities. We also conducted a comparative study where two medical doctors performed the same task on the MEDEC test set. The results showed that MEDEC is a sufficiently challenging benchmark to assess the ability of models to validate existing or generated notes and to correct medical errors. We also found that although recent LLMs have a good performance in error detection and correction, they are still outperformed by medical doctors in these tasks. We discuss the potential factors behind this gap, the insights from our experiments, the limitations of current evaluation metrics, and share potential pointers for future research.

Proof-oriented programs mix computational content with proofs of program correctness. However, the human effort involved in programming and proving is still substantial, despite the use of Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) solvers to automate proofs in languages such as F*. Seeking to spur research on using AI to automate the construction of proof-oriented programs, we curate a dataset of 600K lines of open-source F* programs and proofs, including software used in production systems ranging from Windows and Linux, to Python and Firefox. Our dataset includes around 32K top-level F* definitions, each representing a type-directed program and proof synthesis problem -- producing a definition given a formal specification expressed as an F* type. We provide a program-fragment checker that queries F* to check the correctness of candidate solutions. We believe this is the largest corpus of SMT-assisted program proofs coupled with a reproducible program-fragment checker. Grounded in this dataset, we investigate the use of AI to synthesize programs and their proofs in F*, with promising results. Our main finding in that the performance of fine-tuned smaller language models (such as Phi-2 or StarCoder) compare favorably with large language models (such as GPT-4), at a much lower computational cost. We also identify various type-based retrieval augmentation techniques and find that they boost performance significantly. With detailed error analysis and case studies, we identify potential strengths and weaknesses of models and techniques and suggest directions for future improvements.

Quality estimation models have been developed to assess the corrections made by grammatical error correction (GEC) models when the reference or gold-standard corrections are not available. An ideal quality estimator can be utilized to combine the outputs of multiple GEC systems by choosing the best subset of edits from the union of all edits proposed by the GEC base systems. However, we found that existing GEC quality estimation models are not good enough in differentiating good corrections from bad ones, resulting in a low F0.5 score when used for system combination. In this paper, we propose GRECO, a new state-of-the-art quality estimation model that gives a better estimate of the quality of a corrected sentence, as indicated by having a higher correlation to the F0.5 score of a corrected sentence. It results in a combined GEC system with a higher F0.5 score. We also propose three methods for utilizing GEC quality estimation models for system combination with varying generality: model-agnostic, model-agnostic with voting bias, and model-dependent method. The combined GEC system outperforms the state of the art on the CoNLL-2014 test set and the BEA-2019 test set, achieving the highest F0.5 scores published to date.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Deep learning techniques have been shown to be efficient in various tasks, especially in the development of speech recognition systems, that is, systems that aim to transcribe an audio sentence in a sequence of written words. Despite the progress in the area, speech recognition can still be considered difficult, especially for languages lacking available data, such as Brazilian Portuguese (BP). In this sense, this work presents the development of an public Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system using only open available audio data, from the fine-tuning of the Wav2vec 2.0 XLSR-53 model pre-trained in many languages, over BP data. The final model presents an average word error rate of 12.4% over 7 different datasets (10.5% when applying a language model). According to our knowledge, the obtained error is the lowest among open end-to-end (E2E) ASR models for BP.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

We introduce Mitiq, a Python package for error mitigation on noisy quantum computers. Error mitigation techniques can reduce the impact of noise on near-term quantum computers with minimal overhead in quantum resources by relying on a mixture of quantum sampling and classical post-processing techniques. Mitiq is an extensible toolkit of different error mitigation methods, including zero-noise extrapolation, probabilistic error cancellation, and Clifford data regression. The library is designed to be compatible with generic backends and interfaces with different quantum software frameworks. We describe Mitiq using code snippets to demonstrate usage and discuss features and contribution guidelines. We present several examples demonstrating error mitigation on IBM and Rigetti superconducting quantum processors as well as on noisy simulators.

Modern generative search engines enhance the reliability of large language model (LLM) responses by providing cited evidence. However, evaluating the answer's attribution, i.e., whether every claim within the generated responses is fully supported by its cited evidence, remains an open problem. This verification, traditionally dependent on costly human evaluation, underscores the urgent need for automatic attribution evaluation methods. To bridge the gap in the absence of standardized benchmarks for these methods, we present AttributionBench, a comprehensive benchmark compiled from various existing attribution datasets. Our extensive experiments on AttributionBench reveal the challenges of automatic attribution evaluation, even for state-of-the-art LLMs. Specifically, our findings show that even a fine-tuned GPT-3.5 only achieves around 80% macro-F1 under a binary classification formulation. A detailed analysis of more than 300 error cases indicates that a majority of failures stem from the model's inability to process nuanced information, and the discrepancy between the information the model has access to and that human annotators do.

Interpretability and explainability of deep neural networks are challenging due to their scale, complexity, and the agreeable notions on which the explaining process rests. Previous work, in particular, has focused on representing internal components of neural networks through human-friendly visuals and concepts. On the other hand, in real life, when making a decision, human tends to rely on similar situations and/or associations in the past. Hence arguably, a promising approach to make the model transparent is to design it in a way such that the model explicitly connects the current sample with the seen ones, and bases its decision on these samples. Grounded on that principle, we propose in this paper an explainable, evidence-based memory network architecture, which learns to summarize the dataset and extract supporting evidences to make its decision. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on two popular question answering datasets (i.e. TrecQA and WikiQA). Via further analysis, we show that this model can reliably trace the errors it has made in the validation step to the training instances that might have caused these errors. We believe that this error-tracing capability provides significant benefit in improving dataset quality in many applications.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Speculative decoding is a prominent technique to speed up the inference of a large target language model based on predictions of an auxiliary draft model. While effective, in application-specific settings, it often involves fine-tuning both draft and target models to achieve high acceptance rates. As the number of downstream tasks grows, these draft models add significant complexity to inference systems. We propose Speculative Streaming, a single-model speculative decoding method that fuses drafting into the target model by changing the fine-tuning objective from next token prediction to future n-gram prediction. Speculative Streaming speeds up decoding by 1.8 - 3.1X in a diverse set of tasks, such as Summarization, Structured Queries, and Meaning Representation, without sacrificing generation quality. Additionally, Speculative Streaming is parameter-efficient. It achieves on-par/higher speed-ups than Medusa-style architectures while using ~10000X fewer extra parameters, making it well-suited for resource-constrained devices.

Spelling error correction is an important yet challenging task because a satisfactory solution of it essentially needs human-level language understanding ability. Without loss of generality we consider Chinese spelling error correction (CSC) in this paper. A state-of-the-art method for the task selects a character from a list of candidates for correction (including non-correction) at each position of the sentence on the basis of BERT, the language representation model. The accuracy of the method can be sub-optimal, however, because BERT does not have sufficient capability to detect whether there is an error at each position, apparently due to the way of pre-training it using mask language modeling. In this work, we propose a novel neural architecture to address the aforementioned issue, which consists of a network for error detection and a network for error correction based on BERT, with the former being connected to the latter with what we call soft-masking technique. Our method of using `Soft-Masked BERT' is general, and it may be employed in other language detection-correction problems. Experimental results on two datasets demonstrate that the performance of our proposed method is significantly better than the baselines including the one solely based on BERT.

With the advent of Transformers, large language models (LLMs) have saturated well-known NLP benchmarks and leaderboards with high aggregate performance. However, many times these models systematically fail on tail data or rare groups not obvious in aggregate evaluation. Identifying such problematic data groups is even more challenging when there are no explicit labels (e.g., ethnicity, gender, etc.) and further compounded for NLP datasets due to the lack of visual features to characterize failure modes (e.g., Asian males, animals indoors, waterbirds on land, etc.). This paper introduces an interactive Systematic Error Analysis and Labeling (\seal) tool that uses a two-step approach to first identify high error slices of data and then, in the second step, introduce methods to give human-understandable semantics to those underperforming slices. We explore a variety of methods for coming up with coherent semantics for the error groups using language models for semantic labeling and a text-to-image model for generating visual features. SEAL toolkit and demo screencast is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/nazneen/seal.

Speculative decoding emerges as a pivotal technique for enhancing the inference speed of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite recent research aiming to improve prediction efficiency, multi-sample speculative decoding has been overlooked due to varying numbers of accepted tokens within a batch in the verification phase. Vanilla method adds padding tokens in order to ensure that the number of new tokens remains consistent across samples. However, this increases the computational and memory access overhead, thereby reducing the speedup ratio. We propose a novel method that can resolve the issue of inconsistent tokens accepted by different samples without necessitating an increase in memory or computing overhead. Furthermore, our proposed method can handle the situation where the prediction tokens of different samples are inconsistent without the need to add padding tokens. Sufficient experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/niyunsheng/EMS-SD.

A central question in natural language understanding (NLU) research is whether high performance demonstrates the models' strong reasoning capabilities. We present an extensive series of controlled experiments where pre-trained language models are exposed to data that have undergone specific corruption transformations. These involve removing instances of specific word classes and often lead to non-sensical sentences. Our results show that performance remains high on most GLUE tasks when the models are fine-tuned or tested on corrupted data, suggesting that they leverage other cues for prediction even in non-sensical contexts. Our proposed data transformations can be used to assess the extent to which a specific dataset constitutes a proper testbed for evaluating models' language understanding capabilities.

Pre-trained code language models have achieved promising performance in code generation and improved the programming efficiency of human developers. However, their self-refinement capability is typically overlooked by the existing evaluations of code LMs, which focus only on the accuracy of the one-time prediction. For the cases when code LMs fail to implement the correct program, developers actually find it hard to debug and fix the faulty prediction since it is not written by the developers themselves. Unfortunately, our study reveals that code LMs cannot efficiently self-refine their faulty generations as well. In this paper, we propose CYCLE framework, learning to self-refine the faulty generation according to the available feedback, such as the execution results reported by the test suites. We evaluate CYCLE on three popular code generation benchmarks, HumanEval, MBPP, and APPS. The results reveal that CYCLE successfully maintains, sometimes improves, the quality of one-time code generation, while significantly improving the self-refinement capability of code LMs. We implement four variants of CYCLE with varied numbers of parameters across 350M, 1B, 2B, and 3B, and the experiments show that CYCLE consistently boosts the code generation performance, by up to 63.5%, across benchmarks and varied model sizes. We also notice that CYCLE outperforms code LMs that have 3times more parameters in self-refinement.