Daily Papers

Reinforcement learning (RL) theory has largely focused on proving minimax sample complexity bounds. These require strategic exploration algorithms that use relatively limited function classes for representing the policy or value function. Our goal is to explain why deep RL algorithms often perform well in practice, despite using random exploration and much more expressive function classes like neural networks. Our work arrives at an explanation by showing that many stochastic MDPs can be solved by performing only a few steps of value iteration on the random policy's Q function and then acting greedily. When this is true, we find that it is possible to separate the exploration and learning components of RL, making it much easier to analyze. We introduce a new RL algorithm, SQIRL, that iteratively learns a near-optimal policy by exploring randomly to collect rollouts and then performing a limited number of steps of fitted-Q iteration over those rollouts. Any regression algorithm that satisfies basic in-distribution generalization properties can be used in SQIRL to efficiently solve common MDPs. This can explain why deep RL works, since it is empirically established that neural networks generalize well in-distribution. Furthermore, SQIRL explains why random exploration works well in practice. We leverage SQIRL to derive instance-dependent sample complexity bounds for RL that are exponential only in an "effective horizon" of lookahead and on the complexity of the class used for function approximation. Empirically, we also find that SQIRL performance strongly correlates with PPO and DQN performance in a variety of stochastic environments, supporting that our theoretical analysis is predictive of practical performance. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/cassidylaidlaw/effective-horizon.

Conventional neural architectures for sequential data present important limitations. Recurrent networks suffer from exploding and vanishing gradients, small effective memory horizons, and must be trained sequentially. Convolutional networks are unable to handle sequences of unknown size and their memory horizon must be defined a priori. In this work, we show that all these problems can be solved by formulating convolutional kernels in CNNs as continuous functions. The resulting Continuous Kernel Convolution (CKConv) allows us to model arbitrarily long sequences in a parallel manner, within a single operation, and without relying on any form of recurrence. We show that Continuous Kernel Convolutional Networks (CKCNNs) obtain state-of-the-art results in multiple datasets, e.g., permuted MNIST, and, thanks to their continuous nature, are able to handle non-uniformly sampled datasets and irregularly-sampled data natively. CKCNNs match or perform better than neural ODEs designed for these purposes in a faster and simpler manner.

Recent studies have delved into constructing generalist agents for open-world embodied environments like Minecraft. Despite the encouraging results, existing efforts mainly focus on solving basic programmatic tasks, e.g., material collection and tool-crafting following the Minecraft tech-tree, treating the ObtainDiamond task as the ultimate goal. This limitation stems from the narrowly defined set of actions available to agents, requiring them to learn effective long-horizon strategies from scratch. Consequently, discovering diverse gameplay opportunities in the open world becomes challenging. In this work, we introduce ODYSSEY, a new framework that empowers Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents with open-world skills to explore the vast Minecraft world. ODYSSEY comprises three key parts: (1) An interactive agent with an open-world skill library that consists of 40 primitive skills and 183 compositional skills. (2) A fine-tuned LLaMA-3 model trained on a large question-answering dataset with 390k+ instruction entries derived from the Minecraft Wiki. (3) A new open-world benchmark includes thousands of long-term planning tasks, tens of dynamic-immediate planning tasks, and one autonomous exploration task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed ODYSSEY framework can effectively evaluate the planning and exploration capabilities of agents. All datasets, model weights, and code are publicly available to motivate future research on more advanced autonomous agent solutions.

Meta-learning empowers artificial intelligence to increase its efficiency by learning how to learn. Unlocking this potential involves overcoming a challenging meta-optimisation problem. We propose an algorithm that tackles this problem by letting the meta-learner teach itself. The algorithm first bootstraps a target from the meta-learner, then optimises the meta-learner by minimising the distance to that target under a chosen (pseudo-)metric. Focusing on meta-learning with gradients, we establish conditions that guarantee performance improvements and show that the metric can control meta-optimisation. Meanwhile, the bootstrapping mechanism can extend the effective meta-learning horizon without requiring backpropagation through all updates. We achieve a new state-of-the art for model-free agents on the Atari ALE benchmark and demonstrate that it yields both performance and efficiency gains in multi-task meta-learning. Finally, we explore how bootstrapping opens up new possibilities and find that it can meta-learn efficient exploration in an epsilon-greedy Q-learning agent, without backpropagating through the update rule.

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

Oriented object detection emerges in many applications from aerial images to autonomous driving, while many existing detection benchmarks are annotated with horizontal bounding box only which is also less costive than fine-grained rotated box, leading to a gap between the readily available training corpus and the rising demand for oriented object detection. This paper proposes a simple yet effective oriented object detection approach called H2RBox merely using horizontal box annotation for weakly-supervised training, which closes the above gap and shows competitive performance even against those trained with rotated boxes. The cores of our method are weakly- and self-supervised learning, which predicts the angle of the object by learning the consistency of two different views. To our best knowledge, H2RBox is the first horizontal box annotation-based oriented object detector. Compared to an alternative i.e. horizontal box-supervised instance segmentation with our post adaption to oriented object detection, our approach is not susceptible to the prediction quality of mask and can perform more robustly in complex scenes containing a large number of dense objects and outliers. Experimental results show that H2RBox has significant performance and speed advantages over horizontal box-supervised instance segmentation methods, as well as lower memory requirements. While compared to rotated box-supervised oriented object detectors, our method shows very close performance and speed. The source code is available at PyTorch-based https://github.com/yangxue0827/h2rbox-mmrotate{MMRotate} and Jittor-based https://github.com/yangxue0827/h2rbox-jittor{JDet}.

Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) has become integral to code language models, enabling generation of missing code given both left and right contexts. However, the current FIM training paradigm, which reorders original training sequences and then performs regular next-token prediction (NTP), often leads to models struggling to generate content that aligns smoothly with the surrounding context. Crucially, while existing works rely on rule-based post-processing to circumvent this weakness, such methods are not practically usable in open-domain code completion tasks as they depend on restrictive, dataset-specific assumptions (e.g., generating the same number of lines as in the ground truth). Moreover, model performance on FIM tasks deteriorates significantly without these unrealistic assumptions. We hypothesize that NTP alone is insufficient for models to learn effective planning conditioned on the distant right context, a critical factor for successful code infilling. To overcome this, we propose Horizon-Length Prediction (HLP), a novel training objective that teaches models to predict the number of remaining middle tokens (i.e., horizon length) at each step. HLP advances FIM with lookahead planning, enabling models to inherently learn infilling boundaries for arbitrary left and right contexts without relying on dataset-specific post-processing. Our evaluation across different models and sizes shows that HLP significantly improves FIM performance by up to 24% relatively on diverse benchmarks, across file-level and repository-level, and without resorting to unrealistic post-processing methods. Furthermore, the enhanced planning capability gained through HLP boosts model performance on code reasoning. Importantly, HLP only incurs negligible training overhead and no additional inference cost, ensuring its practicality for real-world scenarios.

Federated learning has emerged as a promising distributed learning paradigm that facilitates collaborative learning among multiple parties without transferring raw data. However, most existing federated learning studies focus on either horizontal or vertical data settings, where the data of different parties are assumed to be from the same feature or sample space. In practice, a common scenario is the hybrid data setting, where data from different parties may differ both in the features and samples. To address this, we propose HybridTree, a novel federated learning approach that enables federated tree learning on hybrid data. We observe the existence of consistent split rules in trees. With the help of these split rules, we theoretically show that the knowledge of parties can be incorporated into the lower layers of a tree. Based on our theoretical analysis, we propose a layer-level solution that does not need frequent communication traffic to train a tree. Our experiments demonstrate that HybridTree can achieve comparable accuracy to the centralized setting with low computational and communication overhead. HybridTree can achieve up to 8 times speedup compared with the other baselines.

Great successes have been achieved using deep learning techniques for image super-resolution (SR) with fixed scales. To increase its real world applicability, numerous models have also been proposed to restore SR images with arbitrary scale factors, including asymmetric ones where images are resized to different scales along horizontal and vertical directions. Though most models are only optimized for the unidirectional upscaling task while assuming a predefined downscaling kernel for low-resolution (LR) inputs, recent models based on Invertible Neural Networks (INN) are able to increase upscaling accuracy significantly by optimizing the downscaling and upscaling cycle jointly. However, limited by the INN architecture, it is constrained to fixed integer scale factors and requires one model for each scale. Without increasing model complexity, a simple and effective invertible arbitrary rescaling network (IARN) is proposed to achieve arbitrary image rescaling by training only one model in this work. Using innovative components like position-aware scale encoding and preemptive channel splitting, the network is optimized to convert the non-invertible rescaling cycle to an effectively invertible process. It is shown to achieve a state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in bidirectional arbitrary rescaling without compromising perceptual quality in LR outputs. It is also demonstrated to perform well on tests with asymmetric scales using the same network architecture.

To make effective decisions in novel environments with long-horizon goals, it is crucial to engage in hierarchical reasoning across spatial and temporal scales. This entails planning abstract subgoal sequences, visually reasoning about the underlying plans, and executing actions in accordance with the devised plan through visual-motor control. We propose Compositional Foundation Models for Hierarchical Planning (HiP), a foundation model which leverages multiple expert foundation model trained on language, vision and action data individually jointly together to solve long-horizon tasks. We use a large language model to construct symbolic plans that are grounded in the environment through a large video diffusion model. Generated video plans are then grounded to visual-motor control, through an inverse dynamics model that infers actions from generated videos. To enable effective reasoning within this hierarchy, we enforce consistency between the models via iterative refinement. We illustrate the efficacy and adaptability of our approach in three different long-horizon table-top manipulation tasks.

This paper presents T3: Transferable Tactile Transformers, a framework for tactile representation learning that scales across multi-sensors and multi-tasks. T3 is designed to overcome the contemporary issue that camera-based tactile sensing is extremely heterogeneous, i.e. sensors are built into different form factors, and existing datasets were collected for disparate tasks. T3 captures the shared latent information across different sensor-task pairings by constructing a shared trunk transformer with sensor-specific encoders and task-specific decoders. The pre-training of T3 utilizes a novel Foundation Tactile (FoTa) dataset, which is aggregated from several open-sourced datasets and it contains over 3 million data points gathered from 13 sensors and 11 tasks. FoTa is the largest and most diverse dataset in tactile sensing to date and it is made publicly available in a unified format. Across various sensors and tasks, experiments show that T3 pre-trained with FoTa achieved zero-shot transferability in certain sensor-task pairings, can be further fine-tuned with small amounts of domain-specific data, and its performance scales with bigger network sizes. T3 is also effective as a tactile encoder for long horizon contact-rich manipulation. Results from sub-millimeter multi-pin electronics insertion tasks show that T3 achieved a task success rate 25% higher than that of policies trained with tactile encoders trained from scratch, or 53% higher than without tactile sensing. Data, code, and model checkpoints are open-sourced at https://t3.alanz.info.

Effective asynchronous planning, or the ability to efficiently reason and plan over states and actions that must happen in parallel or sequentially, is essential for agents that must account for time delays, reason over diverse long-horizon tasks, and collaborate with other agents. While large language model (LLM) agents show promise in high-level task planning, current benchmarks focus primarily on short-horizon tasks and do not evaluate such asynchronous planning capabilities. We introduce Robotouille, a challenging benchmark environment designed to test LLM agents' ability to handle long-horizon asynchronous scenarios. Our synchronous and asynchronous datasets capture increasingly complex planning challenges that go beyond existing benchmarks, requiring agents to manage overlapping tasks and interruptions. Our results show that ReAct (gpt4-o) achieves 47% on synchronous tasks but only 11% on asynchronous tasks, highlighting significant room for improvement. We further analyze failure modes, demonstrating the need for LLM agents to better incorporate long-horizon feedback and self-audit their reasoning during task execution. Code is available at https://github.com/portal-cornell/robotouille.

World models can foresee the outcomes of different actions, which is of paramount importance for autonomous driving. Nevertheless, existing driving world models still have limitations in generalization to unseen environments, prediction fidelity of critical details, and action controllability for flexible application. In this paper, we present Vista, a generalizable driving world model with high fidelity and versatile controllability. Based on a systematic diagnosis of existing methods, we introduce several key ingredients to address these limitations. To accurately predict real-world dynamics at high resolution, we propose two novel losses to promote the learning of moving instances and structural information. We also devise an effective latent replacement approach to inject historical frames as priors for coherent long-horizon rollouts. For action controllability, we incorporate a versatile set of controls from high-level intentions (command, goal point) to low-level maneuvers (trajectory, angle, and speed) through an efficient learning strategy. After large-scale training, the capabilities of Vista can seamlessly generalize to different scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets show that Vista outperforms the most advanced general-purpose video generator in over 70% of comparisons and surpasses the best-performing driving world model by 55% in FID and 27% in FVD. Moreover, for the first time, we utilize the capacity of Vista itself to establish a generalizable reward for real-world action evaluation without accessing the ground truth actions.

For effective human-robot interaction, robots need to understand, plan, and execute complex, long-horizon tasks described by natural language. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have shown promise for translating natural language into robot action sequences for complex tasks. However, existing approaches either translate the natural language directly into robot trajectories or factor the inference process by decomposing language into task sub-goals and relying on a motion planner to execute each sub-goal. When complex environmental and temporal constraints are involved, inference over planning tasks must be performed jointly with motion plans using traditional task-and-motion planning (TAMP) algorithms, making factorization into subgoals untenable. Rather than using LLMs to directly plan task sub-goals, we instead perform few-shot translation from natural language task descriptions to an intermediate task representation that can then be consumed by a TAMP algorithm to jointly solve the task and motion plan. To improve translation, we automatically detect and correct both syntactic and semantic errors via autoregressive re-prompting, resulting in significant improvements in task completion. We show that our approach outperforms several methods using LLMs as planners in complex task domains. See our project website https://yongchao98.github.io/MIT-REALM-AutoTAMP/ for prompts, videos, and code.

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for understanding and mitigating weather-related impacts. In this paper, we present PuYun, an autoregressive cascade model that leverages large kernel attention convolutional networks. The model's design inherently supports extended weather prediction horizons while broadening the effective receptive field. The integration of large kernel attention mechanisms within the convolutional layers enhances the model's capacity to capture fine-grained spatial details, thereby improving its predictive accuracy for meteorological phenomena. We introduce PuYun, comprising PuYun-Short for 0-5 day forecasts and PuYun-Medium for 5-10 day predictions. This approach enhances the accuracy of 10-day weather forecasting. Through evaluation, we demonstrate that PuYun-Short alone surpasses the performance of both GraphCast and FuXi-Short in generating accurate 10-day forecasts. Specifically, on the 10th day, PuYun-Short reduces the RMSE for Z500 to 720 m^2/s^2, compared to 732 m^2/s^2 for GraphCast and 740 m^2/s^2 for FuXi-Short. Additionally, the RMSE for T2M is reduced to 2.60 K, compared to 2.63 K for GraphCast and 2.65 K for FuXi-Short. Furthermore, when employing a cascaded approach by integrating PuYun-Short and PuYun-Medium, our method achieves superior results compared to the combined performance of FuXi-Short and FuXi-Medium. On the 10th day, the RMSE for Z500 is further reduced to 638 m^2/s^2, compared to 641 m^2/s^2 for FuXi. These findings underscore the effectiveness of our model ensemble in advancing medium-range weather prediction. Our training code and model will be open-sourced.

Teaching robots dexterous manipulation skills, such as tool use, presents a significant challenge. Current approaches can be broadly categorized into two strategies: human teleoperation (for imitation learning) and sim-to-real reinforcement learning. The first approach is difficult as it is hard for humans to produce safe and dexterous motions on a different embodiment without touch feedback. The second RL-based approach struggles with the domain gap and involves highly task-specific reward engineering on complex tasks. Our key insight is that RL is effective at learning low-level motion primitives, while humans excel at providing coarse motion commands for complex, long-horizon tasks. Therefore, the optimal solution might be a combination of both approaches. In this paper, we introduce DexterityGen (DexGen), which uses RL to pretrain large-scale dexterous motion primitives, such as in-hand rotation or translation. We then leverage this learned dataset to train a dexterous foundational controller. In the real world, we use human teleoperation as a prompt to the controller to produce highly dexterous behavior. We evaluate the effectiveness of DexGen in both simulation and real world, demonstrating that it is a general-purpose controller that can realize input dexterous manipulation commands and significantly improves stability by 10-100x measured as duration of holding objects across diverse tasks. Notably, with DexGen we demonstrate unprecedented dexterous skills including diverse object reorientation and dexterous tool use such as pen, syringe, and screwdriver for the first time.

Affordance understanding, the task of identifying actionable regions on 3D objects, plays a vital role in allowing robotic systems to engage with and operate within the physical world. Although Visual Language Models (VLMs) have excelled in high-level reasoning and long-horizon planning for robotic manipulation, they still fall short in grasping the nuanced physical properties required for effective human-robot interaction. In this paper, we introduce PAVLM (Point cloud Affordance Vision-Language Model), an innovative framework that utilizes the extensive multimodal knowledge embedded in pre-trained language models to enhance 3D affordance understanding of point cloud. PAVLM integrates a geometric-guided propagation module with hidden embeddings from large language models (LLMs) to enrich visual semantics. On the language side, we prompt Llama-3.1 models to generate refined context-aware text, augmenting the instructional input with deeper semantic cues. Experimental results on the 3D-AffordanceNet benchmark demonstrate that PAVLM outperforms baseline methods for both full and partial point clouds, particularly excelling in its generalization to novel open-world affordance tasks of 3D objects. For more information, visit our project site: pavlm-source.github.io.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, over a period of four years, from January 2015 till December 2019. Based on the NIFTY data during the said period, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the Close value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual Close values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

Offline reinforcement learning algorithms hold the promise of enabling data-driven RL methods that do not require costly or dangerous real-world exploration and benefit from large pre-collected datasets. This in turn can facilitate real-world applications, as well as a more standardized approach to RL research. Furthermore, offline RL methods can provide effective initializations for online finetuning to overcome challenges with exploration. However, evaluating progress on offline RL algorithms requires effective and challenging benchmarks that capture properties of real-world tasks, provide a range of task difficulties, and cover a range of challenges both in terms of the parameters of the domain (e.g., length of the horizon, sparsity of rewards) and the parameters of the data (e.g., narrow demonstration data or broad exploratory data). While considerable progress in offline RL in recent years has been enabled by simpler benchmark tasks, the most widely used datasets are increasingly saturating in performance and may fail to reflect properties of realistic tasks. We propose a new benchmark for offline RL that focuses on realistic simulations of robotic manipulation and locomotion environments, based on models of real-world robotic systems, and comprising a variety of data sources, including scripted data, play-style data collected by human teleoperators, and other data sources. Our proposed benchmark covers state-based and image-based domains, and supports both offline RL and online fine-tuning evaluation, with some of the tasks specifically designed to require both pre-training and fine-tuning. We hope that our proposed benchmark will facilitate further progress on both offline RL and fine-tuning algorithms. Website with code, examples, tasks, and data is available at https://sites.google.com/view/d5rl/

Structure information is critical for understanding the semantics of text-rich images, such as documents, tables, and charts. Existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) for Visual Document Understanding are equipped with text recognition ability but lack general structure understanding abilities for text-rich document images. In this work, we emphasize the importance of structure information in Visual Document Understanding and propose the Unified Structure Learning to boost the performance of MLLMs. Our Unified Structure Learning comprises structure-aware parsing tasks and multi-grained text localization tasks across 5 domains: document, webpage, table, chart, and natural image. To better encode structure information, we design a simple and effective vision-to-text module H-Reducer, which can not only maintain the layout information but also reduce the length of visual features by merging horizontal adjacent patches through convolution, enabling the LLM to understand high-resolution images more efficiently. Furthermore, by constructing structure-aware text sequences and multi-grained pairs of texts and bounding boxes for publicly available text-rich images, we build a comprehensive training set DocStruct4M to support structure learning. Finally, we construct a small but high-quality reasoning tuning dataset DocReason25K to trigger the detailed explanation ability in the document domain. Our model DocOwl 1.5 achieves state-of-the-art performance on 10 visual document understanding benchmarks, improving the SOTA performance of MLLMs with a 7B LLM by more than 10 points in 5/10 benchmarks. Our codes, models, and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/X-PLUG/mPLUG-DocOwl/tree/main/DocOwl1.5.

We consider a contextual combinatorial bandit problem where in each round a learning agent selects a subset of arms and receives feedback on the selected arms according to their scores. The score of an arm is an unknown function of the arm's feature. Approximating this unknown score function with deep neural networks, we propose algorithms: Combinatorial Neural UCB (CN-UCB) and Combinatorial Neural Thompson Sampling (CN-TS). We prove that CN-UCB achieves mathcal{O}(d T) or mathcal{O}(tilde{d T K}) regret, where d is the effective dimension of a neural tangent kernel matrix, K is the size of a subset of arms, and T is the time horizon. For CN-TS, we adapt an optimistic sampling technique to ensure the optimism of the sampled combinatorial action, achieving a worst-case (frequentist) regret of mathcal{O}(d TK). To the best of our knowledge, these are the first combinatorial neural bandit algorithms with regret performance guarantees. In particular, CN-TS is the first Thompson sampling algorithm with the worst-case regret guarantees for the general contextual combinatorial bandit problem. The numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performances of our proposed algorithms.

Formulating a quantum theory of gravity lies at the heart of fundamental theoretical physics. This collection of lecture notes encompasses a selection of topics that were covered in six mini-courses at the Nordita PhD school "Towards Quantum Gravity". The scope was to provide a coherent picture, from its foundation to forefront research, emphasizing connections between different areas. The lectures begin with perturbative quantum gravity and effective field theory. Subsequently, two ultraviolet-complete approaches are presented: asymptotically safe gravity and string theory. Finally, elements of quantum effects in black hole spacetimes are discussed.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Effective planning is essential for the success of any task, from organizing a vacation to routing autonomous vehicles and developing corporate strategies. It involves setting goals, formulating plans, and allocating resources to achieve them. LLMs are particularly well-suited for automated planning due to their strong capabilities in commonsense reasoning. They can deduce a sequence of actions needed to achieve a goal from a given state and identify an effective course of action. However, it is frequently observed that plans generated through direct prompting often fail upon execution. Our survey aims to highlight the existing challenges in planning with language models, focusing on key areas such as embodied environments, optimal scheduling, competitive and cooperative games, task decomposition, reasoning, and planning. Through this study, we explore how LLMs transform AI planning and provide unique insights into the future of LM-assisted planning.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a method for estimating the return of a target policy using some pre-collected observational data generated by a potentially different behavior policy. In some cases, there may be unmeasured variables that can confound the action-reward or action-next-state relationships, rendering many existing OPE approaches ineffective. This paper develops an instrumental variable (IV)-based method for consistent OPE in confounded Markov decision processes (MDPs). Similar to single-stage decision making, we show that IV enables us to correctly identify the target policy's value in infinite horizon settings as well. Furthermore, we propose an efficient and robust value estimator and illustrate its effectiveness through extensive simulations and analysis of real data from a world-leading short-video platform.

Understanding the loss landscape is an important problem in machine learning. One key feature of the loss function, common to many neural network architectures, is the presence of exponentially many low lying local minima. Physical systems with similar energy landscapes may provide useful insights. In this work, we point out that black holes naturally give rise to such landscapes, owing to the existence of black hole entropy. For definiteness, we consider 1/8 BPS black holes in N = 8 string theory. These provide an infinite family of potential landscapes arising in the microscopic descriptions of corresponding black holes. The counting of minima amounts to black hole microstate counting. Moreover, the exact numbers of the minima for these landscapes are a priori known from dualities in string theory. Some of the minima are connected by paths of low loss values, resembling mode connectivity. We estimate the number of runs needed to find all the solutions. Initial explorations suggest that Stochastic Gradient Descent can find a significant fraction of the minima.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.