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Sep 3

The Slepian model based independent interval approximation of persistency and zero-level exceedance distributions

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Explaining Neural Scaling Laws

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Critical Learning Periods Emerge Even in Deep Linear Networks

Critical learning periods are periods early in development where temporary sensory deficits can have a permanent effect on behavior and learned representations. Despite the radical differences between biological and artificial networks, critical learning periods have been empirically observed in both systems. This suggests that critical periods may be fundamental to learning and not an accident of biology. Yet, why exactly critical periods emerge in deep networks is still an open question, and in particular it is unclear whether the critical periods observed in both systems depend on particular architectural or optimization details. To isolate the key underlying factors, we focus on deep linear network models, and show that, surprisingly, such networks also display much of the behavior seen in biology and artificial networks, while being amenable to analytical treatment. We show that critical periods depend on the depth of the model and structure of the data distribution. We also show analytically and in simulations that the learning of features is tied to competition between sources. Finally, we extend our analysis to multi-task learning to show that pre-training on certain tasks can damage the transfer performance on new tasks, and show how this depends on the relationship between tasks and the duration of the pre-training stage. To the best of our knowledge, our work provides the first analytically tractable model that sheds light into why critical learning periods emerge in biological and artificial networks.

Metastable Cosmological Constant and Gravitational Bubbles: Ultra-Late-Time Transitions in Modified Gravity

The observed cosmological constant may originate as the minimum value U_{min} of a scalar field potential, where the scalar field is frozen due to a large mass. If this vacuum is metastable, it may decay to a true vacuum either at present or in the future. Assuming its decay rate Gamma is comparable to the Hubble expansion rate H_0, we estimate the scale of true vacuum bubbles and analyze their evolution. We find that their initial formation scale is sub-millimeter and their tension causes rapid collapse if m gtrsim 1.7 cdot 10^{-3}, eV. For smaller masses, the bubbles expand at the speed of light. We extend our analysis to scalar-tensor theories with non-minimal coupling, finding that the nucleation scale of gravitational constant bubbles remains consistent with the sub-millimeter regime of General Relativity. The critical mass scale remains around 10^{-3},eV. A theoretical estimate at redshift z_{obs} sim 0.01 suggests an observable bubble radius of sim 50 Mpc, implying a gravitational transition triggered sim 300 Myr ago, with a present-day size approaching 100 Mpc. Additionally, we explore mass ranges (m < 10^{-3},eV) and non-minimal coupling xi ranges (10^{-8},eV^{2-n} - 10^{-1},eV^{2-n}) that lead to a variation Delta G/G_N within the 1%-7% range. We assume non-minimal coupling of the form F(phi)=1/kappa - xi phi^n, with kappa=8pi G_N and 2 leq n leq 9. Finally, we review various local physics or/and transition based proposed solutions to the Hubble tension, including ultra-late-time transitional models (z sim 0.01), screened fifth-force mechanisms, and the Lambda_{rm s}CDM model, which features a transition at z sim 2. We discuss observational hints supporting these scenarios and the theoretical challenges they face.

NUPES : Non-Uniform Post-Training Quantization via Power Exponent Search

Deep neural network (DNN) deployment has been confined to larger hardware devices due to their expensive computational requirements. This challenge has recently reached another scale with the emergence of large language models (LLMs). In order to reduce both their memory footprint and latency, a promising technique is quantization. It consists in converting floating point representations to low bit-width fixed point representations, usually by assuming a uniform mapping onto a regular grid. This process, referred to in the literature as uniform quantization, may however be ill-suited as most DNN weights and activations follow a bell-shaped distribution. This is even worse on LLMs whose weight distributions are known to exhibit large, high impact, outlier values. In this work, we propose an improvement over the most commonly adopted way to tackle this limitation in deep learning models quantization, namely, non-uniform quantization. NUPES leverages automorphisms to preserve the scalar multiplications. Such transformations are derived from power functions. However, the optimization of the exponent parameter and weight values remains a challenging and novel problem which could not be solved with previous post training optimization techniques which only learn to round up or down weight values in order to preserve the predictive function. We circumvent this limitation with a new paradigm: learning new quantized weights over the entire quantized space. Similarly, we enable the optimization of the power exponent, i.e. the optimization of the quantization operator itself during training by alleviating all the numerical instabilities. The resulting predictive function is compatible with integer-only low-bit inference. We show the ability of the method to achieve state-of-the-art compression rates in both, data-free and data-driven configurations.

Deep Learning Scaling is Predictable, Empirically

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

Linear statistics for Coulomb gases: higher order cumulants

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

Neural Network Approximations of PDEs Beyond Linearity: A Representational Perspective

A burgeoning line of research leverages deep neural networks to approximate the solutions to high dimensional PDEs, opening lines of theoretical inquiry focused on explaining how it is that these models appear to evade the curse of dimensionality. However, most prior theoretical analyses have been limited to linear PDEs. In this work, we take a step towards studying the representational power of neural networks for approximating solutions to nonlinear PDEs. We focus on a class of PDEs known as nonlinear elliptic variational PDEs, whose solutions minimize an Euler-Lagrange energy functional E(u) = int_Omega L(x, u(x), nabla u(x)) - f(x) u(x)dx. We show that if composing a function with Barron norm b with partial derivatives of L produces a function of Barron norm at most B_L b^p, the solution to the PDE can be epsilon-approximated in the L^2 sense by a function with Barron norm Oleft(left(dB_Lright)^{max{p log(1/ epsilon), p^{log(1/epsilon)}}}right). By a classical result due to Barron [1993], this correspondingly bounds the size of a 2-layer neural network needed to approximate the solution. Treating p, epsilon, B_L as constants, this quantity is polynomial in dimension, thus showing neural networks can evade the curse of dimensionality. Our proof technique involves neurally simulating (preconditioned) gradient in an appropriate Hilbert space, which converges exponentially fast to the solution of the PDE, and such that we can bound the increase of the Barron norm at each iterate. Our results subsume and substantially generalize analogous prior results for linear elliptic PDEs over a unit hypercube.

Automated Search for Conjectures on Mathematical Constants using Analysis of Integer Sequences

Formulas involving fundamental mathematical constants had a great impact on various fields of science and mathematics, for example aiding in proofs of irrationality of constants. However, the discovery of such formulas has historically remained scarce, often perceived as an act of mathematical genius by great mathematicians such as Ramanujan, Euler, and Gauss. Recent efforts to automate the discovery of formulas for mathematical constants, such as the Ramanujan Machine project, relied on exhaustive search. Despite several successful discoveries, exhaustive search remains limited by the space of options that can be covered and by the need for vast amounts of computational resources. Here we propose a fundamentally different method to search for conjectures on mathematical constants: through analysis of integer sequences. We introduce the Enumerated Signed-continued-fraction Massey Approve (ESMA) algorithm, which builds on the Berlekamp-Massey algorithm to identify patterns in integer sequences that represent mathematical constants. The ESMA algorithm found various known formulas for e, e^2, tan(1), and ratios of values of Bessel functions. The algorithm further discovered a large number of new conjectures for these constants, some providing simpler representations and some providing faster numerical convergence than the corresponding simple continued fractions. Along with the algorithm, we present mathematical tools for manipulating continued fractions. These connections enable us to characterize what space of constants can be found by ESMA and quantify its algorithmic advantage in certain scenarios. Altogether, this work continues in the development of augmenting mathematical intuition by computer algorithms, to help reveal mathematical structures and accelerate mathematical research.

Scaling Laws for Floating Point Quantization Training

Low-precision training is considered an effective strategy for reducing both training and downstream inference costs. Previous scaling laws for precision mainly focus on integer quantization, which pay less attention to the constituents in floating-point quantization and thus cannot well fit the LLM losses in this scenario. In contrast, while floating-point quantization training is more commonly implemented in production, the research on it has been relatively superficial. In this paper, we thoroughly explore the effects of floating-point quantization targets, exponent bits, mantissa bits, and the calculation granularity of the scaling factor in floating-point quantization training performance of LLM models. While presenting an accurate floating-point quantization unified scaling law, we also provide valuable suggestions for the community: (1) Exponent bits contribute slightly more to the model performance than mantissa bits. We provide the optimal exponent-mantissa bit ratio for different bit numbers, which is available for future reference by hardware manufacturers; (2) We discover the formation of the critical data size in low-precision LLM training. Too much training data exceeding the critical data size will inversely bring in degradation of LLM performance; (3) The optimal floating-point quantization precision is directly proportional to the computational power, but within a wide computational power range, we estimate that the best cost-performance precision lies between 4-8 bits.

Detecting Fermi Surface Nesting Effect for Fermionic Dicke Transition by Trap Induced Localization

Recently, the statistical effect of fermionic superradiance is approved by series of experiments both in free space and in a cavity. The Pauli blocking effect can be visualized by a 1/2 scaling of Dicke transition critical pumping strength against particle number Nat for fermions in a trap. However, the Fermi surface nesting effect, which manifests the enhancement of superradiance by Fermi statistics is still very hard to be identified. Here we studied the influence of localized fermions on the trap edge when both pumping optical lattice and the trap are presented. We find due to localization, the statistical effect in superradiant transition is enhanced. Two new scalings of critical pumping strength are observed as 4/3, and 2/3 for mediate particle number, and the Pauli blocking scaling 1/3 (2d case) in large particle number limit is unaffected. Further, we find the 4/3 scaling is subject to a power law increasing with rising ratio between recoil energy and trap frequency in pumping laser direction. The divergence of this scaling of critical pumping strength against N_{rm at} in E_R/omega_xrightarrow+infty limit can be identified as the Fermi surface nesting effect. Thus we find a practical experimental scheme for visualizing the long-desired Fermi surface nesting effect with the help of trap induced localization in a two-dimensional Fermi gas in a cavity.