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Sep 3

Counting Ability of Large Language Models and Impact of Tokenization

Transformers, the backbone of modern large language models (LLMs), face inherent architectural limitations that impede their reasoning capabilities. Unlike recurrent networks, Transformers lack recurrent connections, confining them to constant-depth computation. This restriction places them in the complexity class TC^0, making them theoretically incapable of solving tasks that demand increasingly deep reasoning as input length grows. Counting, a fundamental component of many reasoning tasks, also requires reasoning depth to grow linearly to be performed inductively. While previous studies have established the upper limits of counting ability in Transformer-based expert models (i.e., models specifically trained for counting tasks), these findings do not directly extend to general-purpose LLMs due to differences in reasoning mechanisms. Recent work has highlighted how Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning can help alleviate some of the architectural limitations of Transformers in counting tasks. However, little attention has been paid to the role of tokenization in these models. Unlike expert models that often use character-level tokenization, LLMs typically rely on byte-level (BPE) tokenizers, which fundamentally alters the way reasoning is processed. Our work investigates the impact of tokenization on the counting abilities of LLMs, uncovering substantial performance variations based on input tokenization differences. We provide both theoretical and experimental analyses, offering insights into how tokenization choices can undermine models' theoretical computability, thereby inspiring the design of new tokenization methods to enhance reasoning in LLMs.

RemoteCLIP: A Vision Language Foundation Model for Remote Sensing

General-purpose foundation models have become increasingly important in the field of artificial intelligence. While self-supervised learning (SSL) and Masked Image Modeling (MIM) have led to promising results in building such foundation models for remote sensing, these models primarily learn low-level features, require annotated data for fine-tuning, and not applicable for retrieval and zero-shot applications due to the lack of language understanding. In response to these limitations, we propose RemoteCLIP, the first vision-language foundation model for remote sensing that aims to learn robust visual features with rich semantics, as well as aligned text embeddings for seamless downstream application. To address the scarcity of pre-training data, we leverage data scaling, converting heterogeneous annotations based on Box-to-Caption (B2C) and Mask-to-Box (M2B) conversion, and further incorporating UAV imagery, resulting a 12xlarger pretraining dataset. RemoteCLIP can be applied to a variety of downstream tasks, including zero-shot image classification, linear probing, k-NN classification, few-shot classification, image-text retrieval, and object counting. Evaluations on 16 datasets, including a newly introduced RemoteCount benchmark to test the object counting ability, show that RemoteCLIP consistently outperforms baseline foundation models across different model scales. Impressively, RemoteCLIP outperform previous SoTA by 9.14% mean recall on RSICD dataset and by 8.92% on RSICD dataset. For zero-shot classification, our RemoteCLIP outperform CLIP baseline by up to 6.39% average accuracy on 12 downstream datasets.

Text-to-Image Diffusion Models Cannot Count, and Prompt Refinement Cannot Help

Generative modeling is widely regarded as one of the most essential problems in today's AI community, with text-to-image generation having gained unprecedented real-world impacts. Among various approaches, diffusion models have achieved remarkable success and have become the de facto solution for text-to-image generation. However, despite their impressive performance, these models exhibit fundamental limitations in adhering to numerical constraints in user instructions, frequently generating images with an incorrect number of objects. While several prior works have mentioned this issue, a comprehensive and rigorous evaluation of this limitation remains lacking. To address this gap, we introduce T2ICountBench, a novel benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate the counting ability of state-of-the-art text-to-image diffusion models. Our benchmark encompasses a diverse set of generative models, including both open-source and private systems. It explicitly isolates counting performance from other capabilities, provides structured difficulty levels, and incorporates human evaluations to ensure high reliability. Extensive evaluations with T2ICountBench reveal that all state-of-the-art diffusion models fail to generate the correct number of objects, with accuracy dropping significantly as the number of objects increases. Additionally, an exploratory study on prompt refinement demonstrates that such simple interventions generally do not improve counting accuracy. Our findings highlight the inherent challenges in numerical understanding within diffusion models and point to promising directions for future improvements.

CAPTURe: Evaluating Spatial Reasoning in Vision Language Models via Occluded Object Counting

Recognizing and reasoning about occluded (partially or fully hidden) objects is vital to understanding visual scenes, as occlusions frequently occur in real-world environments and act as obstacles for spatial comprehension. To test models' ability to reason about multiple occluded objects, we introduce a novel task, Counting Amodally for Patterns Through Unseen REgions (CAPTURe), which requires a model to count objects arranged in a pattern by inferring how the pattern continues behind an occluder (an object which blocks parts of the scene). CAPTURe requires both recognizing visual patterns and reasoning, making it a useful testbed for evaluating vision-language models (VLMs) on whether they understand occluded patterns and possess spatial understanding skills. By requiring models to reason about occluded objects, CAPTURe also tests VLMs' ability to form world models that would allow them to fill in missing information. CAPTURe consists of two parts: (1) CAPTURe-real, with manually filtered images of real objects in patterns and (2) CAPTURe-synthetic, a controlled diagnostic with generated patterned images. We evaluate four strong VLMs (GPT-4o, Intern-VL2, Molmo, and Qwen2-VL) on CAPTURe, finding that models struggle to count on both occluded and unoccluded patterns. Crucially, we find that models perform worse with occlusion, suggesting that VLMs are also deficient in inferring unseen spatial relationships: even the strongest VLMs like GPT-4o fail to count with occlusion. In contrast, we find that humans achieve very little error on CAPTURe. We also find that providing auxiliary information of occluded object locations increases performance, underscoring that the model error comes both from an inability to handle occlusion as well as difficulty counting in images.

Automatically identifying, counting, and describing wild animals in camera-trap images with deep learning

Having accurate, detailed, and up-to-date information about the location and behavior of animals in the wild would revolutionize our ability to study and conserve ecosystems. We investigate the ability to automatically, accurately, and inexpensively collect such data, which could transform many fields of biology, ecology, and zoology into "big data" sciences. Motion sensor "camera traps" enable collecting wildlife pictures inexpensively, unobtrusively, and frequently. However, extracting information from these pictures remains an expensive, time-consuming, manual task. We demonstrate that such information can be automatically extracted by deep learning, a cutting-edge type of artificial intelligence. We train deep convolutional neural networks to identify, count, and describe the behaviors of 48 species in the 3.2-million-image Snapshot Serengeti dataset. Our deep neural networks automatically identify animals with over 93.8% accuracy, and we expect that number to improve rapidly in years to come. More importantly, if our system classifies only images it is confident about, our system can automate animal identification for 99.3% of the data while still performing at the same 96.6% accuracy as that of crowdsourced teams of human volunteers, saving more than 8.4 years (at 40 hours per week) of human labeling effort (i.e. over 17,000 hours) on this 3.2-million-image dataset. Those efficiency gains immediately highlight the importance of using deep neural networks to automate data extraction from camera-trap images. Our results suggest that this technology could enable the inexpensive, unobtrusive, high-volume, and even real-time collection of a wealth of information about vast numbers of animals in the wild.

CoIn: Counting the Invisible Reasoning Tokens in Commercial Opaque LLM APIs

As post-training techniques evolve, large language models (LLMs) are increasingly augmented with structured multi-step reasoning abilities, often optimized through reinforcement learning. These reasoning-enhanced models outperform standard LLMs on complex tasks and now underpin many commercial LLM APIs. However, to protect proprietary behavior and reduce verbosity, providers typically conceal the reasoning traces while returning only the final answer. This opacity introduces a critical transparency gap: users are billed for invisible reasoning tokens, which often account for the majority of the cost, yet have no means to verify their authenticity. This opens the door to token count inflation, where providers may overreport token usage or inject synthetic, low-effort tokens to inflate charges. To address this issue, we propose CoIn, a verification framework that audits both the quantity and semantic validity of hidden tokens. CoIn constructs a verifiable hash tree from token embedding fingerprints to check token counts, and uses embedding-based relevance matching to detect fabricated reasoning content. Experiments demonstrate that CoIn, when deployed as a trusted third-party auditor, can effectively detect token count inflation with a success rate reaching up to 94.7%, showing the strong ability to restore billing transparency in opaque LLM services. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/CASE-Lab-UMD/LLM-Auditing-CoIn.

CLIP-EBC: CLIP Can Count Accurately through Enhanced Blockwise Classification

The CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model has exhibited outstanding performance in recognition problems, such as zero-shot image classification and object detection. However, its ability to count remains understudied due to the inherent challenges of transforming counting--a regression task--into a recognition task. In this paper, we investigate CLIP's potential in counting, focusing specifically on estimating crowd sizes. Existing classification-based crowd-counting methods have encountered issues, including inappropriate discretization strategies, which impede the application of CLIP and result in suboptimal performance. To address these challenges, we propose the Enhanced Blockwise Classification (EBC) framework. In contrast to previous methods, EBC relies on integer-valued bins that facilitate the learning of robust decision boundaries. Within our model-agnostic EBC framework, we introduce CLIP-EBC, the first fully CLIP-based crowd-counting model capable of generating density maps. Comprehensive evaluations across diverse crowd-counting datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our methods. Particularly, EBC can improve existing models by up to 76.9%. Moreover, our CLIP-EBC model surpasses current crowd-counting methods, achieving mean absolute errors of 55.0 and 6.3 on ShanghaiTech part A and part B datasets, respectively. The code will be made publicly available.

MotionCLR: Motion Generation and Training-free Editing via Understanding Attention Mechanisms

This research delves into the problem of interactive editing of human motion generation. Previous motion diffusion models lack explicit modeling of the word-level text-motion correspondence and good explainability, hence restricting their fine-grained editing ability. To address this issue, we propose an attention-based motion diffusion model, namely MotionCLR, with CLeaR modeling of attention mechanisms. Technically, MotionCLR models the in-modality and cross-modality interactions with self-attention and cross-attention, respectively. More specifically, the self-attention mechanism aims to measure the sequential similarity between frames and impacts the order of motion features. By contrast, the cross-attention mechanism works to find the fine-grained word-sequence correspondence and activate the corresponding timesteps in the motion sequence. Based on these key properties, we develop a versatile set of simple yet effective motion editing methods via manipulating attention maps, such as motion (de-)emphasizing, in-place motion replacement, and example-based motion generation, etc. For further verification of the explainability of the attention mechanism, we additionally explore the potential of action-counting and grounded motion generation ability via attention maps. Our experimental results show that our method enjoys good generation and editing ability with good explainability.

LLM The Genius Paradox: A Linguistic and Math Expert's Struggle with Simple Word-based Counting Problems

Interestingly, LLMs yet struggle with some basic tasks that humans find trivial to handle, e.g., counting the number of character r's in the word "strawberry". There are several popular conjectures (e.g., tokenization, architecture and training data) regarding the reason for deficiency of LLMs in simple word-based counting problems, sharing the similar belief that such failure stems from model pretraining hence probably inevitable during deployment. In this paper, we carefully design multiple evaluation settings to investigate validity of prevalent conjectures. Meanwhile, we measure transferability of advanced mathematical and coding reasoning capabilities from specialized LLMs to simple counting tasks. Although specialized LLMs suffer from counting problems as well, we find conjectures about inherent deficiency of LLMs invalid and further seek opportunities to elicit knowledge and capabilities from LLMs that are beneficial to counting tasks. Compared with strategies such as finetuning and in-context learning that are commonly adopted to enhance performance on new or challenging tasks, we show that engaging reasoning is the most robust and efficient way to help LLMs better perceive tasks with more accurate responses. We hope our conjecture validation design could provide insights into the study of future critical failure modes of LLMs. Based on challenges in transferring advanced capabilities to much simpler tasks, we call for more attention to model capability acquisition and evaluation. We also highlight the importance of cultivating consciousness of "reasoning before responding" during model pretraining.

Number Cookbook: Number Understanding of Language Models and How to Improve It

Large language models (LLMs) can solve an increasing number of complex reasoning tasks while making surprising mistakes in basic numerical understanding and processing (such as 9.11 > 9.9). The latter ability is essential for tackling complex arithmetic and mathematical problems and serves as a foundation for most reasoning tasks, but previous work paid little attention to it or only discussed several restricted tasks (like integer addition). In this paper, we comprehensively investigate the numerical understanding and processing ability (NUPA) of LLMs. Firstly, we introduce a benchmark covering four common numerical representations and 17 distinct numerical tasks in four major categories, resulting in 41 meaningful combinations in total. These tasks are derived from primary and secondary education curricula, encompassing nearly all everyday numerical understanding and processing scenarios, and the rules of these tasks are very simple and clear. Through the benchmark, we find that current LLMs fail frequently in many of the tasks. To study the problem, we train small models with existing and potential techniques for enhancing NUPA (such as tokenizers, PEs, and number formats), comprehensively evaluating their effectiveness using our testbed. We also finetune practical-scale LLMs on our proposed NUPA tasks and find that 1) naive finetuning can improve NUPA a lot on many but not all tasks, and 2) surprisingly, techniques designed to enhance NUPA prove ineffective for finetuning pretrained models. We further explore the impact of chain-of-thought techniques on NUPA. Our work provides a more detailed and comprehensive understanding of NUPA in LLMs. Our benchmark and code are released at https://github.com/GraphPKU/number_cookbook.

Is Your Model Really A Good Math Reasoner? Evaluating Mathematical Reasoning with Checklist

Exceptional mathematical reasoning ability is one of the key features that demonstrate the power of large language models (LLMs). How to comprehensively define and evaluate the mathematical abilities of LLMs, and even reflect the user experience in real-world scenarios, has emerged as a critical issue. Current benchmarks predominantly concentrate on problem-solving capabilities, which presents a substantial risk of model overfitting and fails to accurately represent genuine mathematical reasoning abilities. In this paper, we argue that if a model really understands a problem, it should be robustly and readily applied across a diverse array of tasks. Motivated by this, we introduce MATHCHECK, a well-designed checklist for testing task generalization and reasoning robustness, as well as an automatic tool to generate checklists efficiently. MATHCHECK includes multiple mathematical reasoning tasks and robustness test types to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of both mathematical reasoning ability and behavior testing. Utilizing MATHCHECK, we develop MATHCHECK-GSM and MATHCHECK-GEO to assess mathematical textual reasoning and multi-modal reasoning capabilities, respectively, serving as upgraded versions of benchmarks including GSM8k, GeoQA, UniGeo, and Geometry3K. We adopt MATHCHECK-GSM and MATHCHECK-GEO to evaluate over 20 LLMs and 11 MLLMs, assessing their comprehensive mathematical reasoning abilities. Our results demonstrate that while frontier LLMs like GPT-4o continue to excel in various abilities on the checklist, many other model families exhibit a significant decline. Further experiments indicate that, compared to traditional math benchmarks, MATHCHECK better reflects true mathematical abilities and represents mathematical intelligence more linearly, thereby supporting our design. On our MATHCHECK, we can easily conduct detailed behavior analysis to deeply investigate models.

AGIEval: A Human-Centric Benchmark for Evaluating Foundation Models

Evaluating the general abilities of foundation models to tackle human-level tasks is a vital aspect of their development and application in the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Traditional benchmarks, which rely on artificial datasets, may not accurately represent human-level capabilities. In this paper, we introduce AGIEval, a novel benchmark specifically designed to assess foundation model in the context of human-centric standardized exams, such as college entrance exams, law school admission tests, math competitions, and lawyer qualification tests. We evaluate several state-of-the-art foundation models, including GPT-4, ChatGPT, and Text-Davinci-003, using this benchmark. Impressively, GPT-4 surpasses average human performance on SAT, LSAT, and math competitions, attaining a 95% accuracy rate on the SAT Math test and a 92.5% accuracy on the English test of the Chinese national college entrance exam. This demonstrates the extraordinary performance of contemporary foundation models. In contrast, we also find that GPT-4 is less proficient in tasks that require complex reasoning or specific domain knowledge. Our comprehensive analyses of model capabilities (understanding, knowledge, reasoning, and calculation) reveal these models' strengths and limitations, providing valuable insights into future directions for enhancing their general capabilities. By concentrating on tasks pertinent to human cognition and decision-making, our benchmark delivers a more meaningful and robust evaluation of foundation models' performance in real-world scenarios. The data, code, and all model outputs are released in https://github.com/microsoft/AGIEval.

How Abilities in Large Language Models are Affected by Supervised Fine-tuning Data Composition

Large language models (LLMs) with enormous pre-training tokens and parameter amounts emerge abilities, including math reasoning, code generation, and instruction following. These abilities are further enhanced by supervised fine-tuning (SFT). The open-source community has studied on ad-hoc SFT for each ability, while proprietary LLMs are versatile for all abilities. It is important to investigate how to unlock them with multiple abilities via SFT. In this study, we specifically focus on the data composition between mathematical reasoning, code generation, and general human-aligning abilities during SFT. From a scaling perspective, we investigate the relationship between model abilities and various factors including data amounts, data composition ratio, model parameters, and SFT strategies. Our experiments reveal that different abilities exhibit different scaling patterns, and larger models generally show superior performance with the same amount of data. Mathematical reasoning and code generation improve as data amounts increase consistently, while the general ability is enhanced with about a thousand samples and improves slowly. We find data composition results in various abilities improvements with low data amounts, while conflicts of abilities with high data amounts. Our experiments further show that composition data amount impacts performance, while the influence of composition ratio is insignificant. Regarding the SFT strategies, we evaluate sequential learning multiple abilities are prone to catastrophic forgetting. Our proposed Dual-stage Mixed Fine-tuning (DMT) strategy learns specialized abilities first and then learns general abilities with a small amount of specialized data to prevent forgetting, offering a promising solution to learn multiple abilities with different scaling patterns.

Unlock Predictable Scaling from Emergent Abilities

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

Targeted Image Data Augmentation Increases Basic Skills Captioning Robustness

Artificial neural networks typically struggle in generalizing to out-of-context examples. One reason for this limitation is caused by having datasets that incorporate only partial information regarding the potential correlational structure of the world. In this work, we propose TIDA (Targeted Image-editing Data Augmentation), a targeted data augmentation method focused on improving models' human-like abilities (e.g., gender recognition) by filling the correlational structure gap using a text-to-image generative model. More specifically, TIDA identifies specific skills in captions describing images (e.g., the presence of a specific gender in the image), changes the caption (e.g., "woman" to "man"), and then uses a text-to-image model to edit the image in order to match the novel caption (e.g., uniquely changing a woman to a man while maintaining the context identical). Based on the Flickr30K benchmark, we show that, compared with the original data set, a TIDA-enhanced dataset related to gender, color, and counting abilities induces better performance in several image captioning metrics. Furthermore, on top of relying on the classical BLEU metric, we conduct a fine-grained analysis of the improvements of our models against the baseline in different ways. We compared text-to-image generative models and found different behaviors of the image captioning models in terms of encoding visual encoding and textual decoding.

Skill-Mix: a Flexible and Expandable Family of Evaluations for AI models

With LLMs shifting their role from statistical modeling of language to serving as general-purpose AI agents, how should LLM evaluations change? Arguably, a key ability of an AI agent is to flexibly combine, as needed, the basic skills it has learned. The capability to combine skills plays an important role in (human) pedagogy and also in a paper on emergence phenomena (Arora & Goyal, 2023). This work introduces Skill-Mix, a new evaluation to measure ability to combine skills. Using a list of N skills the evaluator repeatedly picks random subsets of k skills and asks the LLM to produce text combining that subset of skills. Since the number of subsets grows like N^k, for even modest k this evaluation will, with high probability, require the LLM to produce text significantly different from any text in the training set. The paper develops a methodology for (a) designing and administering such an evaluation, and (b) automatic grading (plus spot-checking by humans) of the results using GPT-4 as well as the open LLaMA-2 70B model. Administering a version of to popular chatbots gave results that, while generally in line with prior expectations, contained surprises. Sizeable differences exist among model capabilities that are not captured by their ranking on popular LLM leaderboards ("cramming for the leaderboard"). Furthermore, simple probability calculations indicate that GPT-4's reasonable performance on k=5 is suggestive of going beyond "stochastic parrot" behavior (Bender et al., 2021), i.e., it combines skills in ways that it had not seen during training. We sketch how the methodology can lead to a Skill-Mix based eco-system of open evaluations for AI capabilities of future models.

Towards Spoken Mathematical Reasoning: Benchmarking Speech-based Models over Multi-faceted Math Problems

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) have led to strong reasoning ability across a wide range of tasks. However, their ability to perform mathematical reasoning from spoken input remains underexplored. Prior studies on speech modality have mostly focused on factual speech understanding or simple audio reasoning tasks, providing limited insight into logical step-by-step reasoning, such as that required for mathematical problem solving. To address this gap, we introduce Spoken Math Question Answering (Spoken-MQA), a new benchmark designed to evaluate the mathematical reasoning capabilities of speech-based models, including both cascade models (ASR + LLMs) and end-to-end speech LLMs. Spoken-MQA covers a diverse set of math problems, including pure arithmetic, single-step and multi-step contextual reasoning, and knowledge-oriented reasoning problems, all presented in unambiguous natural spoken language. Through extensive experiments, we find that: (1) while some speech LLMs perform competitively on contextual reasoning tasks involving basic arithmetic, they still struggle with direct arithmetic problems; (2) current LLMs exhibit a strong bias toward symbolic mathematical expressions written in LaTex and have difficulty interpreting verbalized mathematical expressions; and (3) mathematical knowledge reasoning abilities are significantly degraded in current speech LLMs.

Language Versatilists vs. Specialists: An Empirical Revisiting on Multilingual Transfer Ability

Multilingual transfer ability, which reflects how well the models fine-tuned on one source language can be applied to other languages, has been well studied in multilingual pre-trained models (e.g., BLOOM). However, such ability has not been investigated for English-centric models (e.g., LLaMA). To fill this gap, we study the following research questions. First, does multilingual transfer ability exist in English-centric models and how does it compare with multilingual pretrained models? Second, does it only appears when English is the source language for the English-centric model? Third, how does it vary in different tasks? We take multilingual reasoning ability as our focus and conduct extensive experiments across four types of reasoning tasks. We find that the multilingual pretrained model does not always outperform an English-centric model. Furthermore, English appears to be a less suitable source language, and the choice of source language becomes less important when the English-centric model scales up. In addition, different types of tasks exhibit different multilingual transfer abilities. These findings demonstrate that English-centric models not only possess multilingual transfer ability but may even surpass the transferability of multilingual pretrained models if well-trained. By showing the strength and weaknesses, the experiments also provide valuable insights into enhancing multilingual reasoning abilities for the English-centric models.

Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?

Recent work claims that large language models display emergent abilities, abilities not present in smaller-scale models that are present in larger-scale models. What makes emergent abilities intriguing is two-fold: their sharpness, transitioning seemingly instantaneously from not present to present, and their unpredictability, appearing at seemingly unforeseeable model scales. Here, we present an alternative explanation for emergent abilities: that for a particular task and model family, when analyzing fixed model outputs, emergent abilities appear due to the researcher's choice of metric rather than due to fundamental changes in model behavior with scale. Specifically, nonlinear or discontinuous metrics produce apparent emergent abilities, whereas linear or continuous metrics produce smooth, continuous predictable changes in model performance. We present our alternative explanation in a simple mathematical model, then test it in three complementary ways: we (1) make, test and confirm three predictions on the effect of metric choice using the InstructGPT/GPT-3 family on tasks with claimed emergent abilities; (2) make, test and confirm two predictions about metric choices in a meta-analysis of emergent abilities on BIG-Bench; and (3) show to choose metrics to produce never-before-seen seemingly emergent abilities in multiple vision tasks across diverse deep networks. Via all three analyses, we provide evidence that alleged emergent abilities evaporate with different metrics or with better statistics, and may not be a fundamental property of scaling AI models.

Evaluating Cognitive Maps and Planning in Large Language Models with CogEval

Recently an influx of studies claim emergent cognitive abilities in large language models (LLMs). Yet, most rely on anecdotes, overlook contamination of training sets, or lack systematic Evaluation involving multiple tasks, control conditions, multiple iterations, and statistical robustness tests. Here we make two major contributions. First, we propose CogEval, a cognitive science-inspired protocol for the systematic evaluation of cognitive capacities in Large Language Models. The CogEval protocol can be followed for the evaluation of various abilities. Second, here we follow CogEval to systematically evaluate cognitive maps and planning ability across eight LLMs (OpenAI GPT-4, GPT-3.5-turbo-175B, davinci-003-175B, Google Bard, Cohere-xlarge-52.4B, Anthropic Claude-1-52B, LLaMA-13B, and Alpaca-7B). We base our task prompts on human experiments, which offer both established construct validity for evaluating planning, and are absent from LLM training sets. We find that, while LLMs show apparent competence in a few planning tasks with simpler structures, systematic evaluation reveals striking failure modes in planning tasks, including hallucinations of invalid trajectories and getting trapped in loops. These findings do not support the idea of emergent out-of-the-box planning ability in LLMs. This could be because LLMs do not understand the latent relational structures underlying planning problems, known as cognitive maps, and fail at unrolling goal-directed trajectories based on the underlying structure. Implications for application and future directions are discussed.