Daily Papers

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

Recent advances in zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis have achieved high-quality speech generation for unseen speakers, but most systems remain unsuitable for real-time applications because of their offline design. Current streaming TTS paradigms often rely on multi-stage pipelines and discrete representations, leading to increased computational cost and suboptimal system performance. In this work, we propose StreamMel, a pioneering single-stage streaming TTS framework that models continuous mel-spectrograms. By interleaving text tokens with acoustic frames, StreamMel enables low-latency, autoregressive synthesis while preserving high speaker similarity and naturalness. Experiments on LibriSpeech demonstrate that StreamMel outperforms existing streaming TTS baselines in both quality and latency. It even achieves performance comparable to offline systems while supporting efficient real-time generation, showcasing broad prospects for integration with real-time speech large language models. Audio samples are available at: https://aka.ms/StreamMel.

Existing world models for autonomous driving struggle with long-horizon generation and generalization to challenging scenarios. In this work, we develop a model using simple design choices, and without additional supervision or sensors, such as maps, depth, or multiple cameras. We show that our model yields state-of-the-art performance, despite having only 469M parameters and being trained on 280h of video data. It particularly stands out in difficult scenarios like turning maneuvers and urban traffic. We test whether discrete token models possibly have advantages over continuous models based on flow matching. To this end, we set up a hybrid tokenizer that is compatible with both approaches and allows for a side-by-side comparison. Our study concludes in favor of the continuous autoregressive model, which is less brittle on individual design choices and more powerful than the model built on discrete tokens. Code, models and qualitative results are publicly available at https://lmb-freiburg.github.io/orbis.github.io/.

The efficiency of large language models (LLMs) is fundamentally limited by their sequential, token-by-token generation process. We argue that overcoming this bottleneck requires a new design axis for LLM scaling: increasing the semantic bandwidth of each generative step. To this end, we introduce Continuous Autoregressive Language Models (CALM), a paradigm shift from discrete next-token prediction to continuous next-vector prediction. CALM uses a high-fidelity autoencoder to compress a chunk of K tokens into a single continuous vector, from which the original tokens can be reconstructed with over 99.9\% accuracy. This allows us to model language as a sequence of continuous vectors instead of discrete tokens, which reduces the number of generative steps by a factor of K. The paradigm shift necessitates a new modeling toolkit; therefore, we develop a comprehensive likelihood-free framework that enables robust training, evaluation, and controllable sampling in the continuous domain. Experiments show that CALM significantly improves the performance-compute trade-off, achieving the performance of strong discrete baselines at a significantly lower computational cost. More importantly, these findings establish next-vector prediction as a powerful and scalable pathway towards ultra-efficient language models. Code: https://github.com/shaochenze/calm. Project: https://shaochenze.github.io/blog/2025/CALM.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models with continuous tokens for image generation show promising results by eliminating the need for discrete tokenization. However, these models face efficiency challenges due to their sequential token generation nature and reliance on computationally intensive diffusion-based sampling. We present ECAR (Efficient Continuous Auto-Regressive Image Generation via Multistage Modeling), an approach that addresses these limitations through two intertwined innovations: (1) a stage-wise continuous token generation strategy that reduces computational complexity and provides progressively refined token maps as hierarchical conditions, and (2) a multistage flow-based distribution modeling method that transforms only partial-denoised distributions at each stage comparing to complete denoising in normal diffusion models. Holistically, ECAR operates by generating tokens at increasing resolutions while simultaneously denoising the image at each stage. This design not only reduces token-to-image transformation cost by a factor of the stage number but also enables parallel processing at the token level. Our approach not only enhances computational efficiency but also aligns naturally with image generation principles by operating in continuous token space and following a hierarchical generation process from coarse to fine details. Experimental results demonstrate that ECAR achieves comparable image quality to DiT Peebles & Xie [2023] while requiring 10times FLOPs reduction and 5times speedup to generate a 256times256 image.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

Scaling up autoregressive models in vision has not proven as beneficial as in large language models. In this work, we investigate this scaling problem in the context of text-to-image generation, focusing on two critical factors: whether models use discrete or continuous tokens, and whether tokens are generated in a random or fixed raster order using BERT- or GPT-like transformer architectures. Our empirical results show that, while all models scale effectively in terms of validation loss, their evaluation performance -- measured by FID, GenEval score, and visual quality -- follows different trends. Models based on continuous tokens achieve significantly better visual quality than those using discrete tokens. Furthermore, the generation order and attention mechanisms significantly affect the GenEval score: random-order models achieve notably better GenEval scores compared to raster-order models. Inspired by these findings, we train Fluid, a random-order autoregressive model on continuous tokens. Fluid 10.5B model achieves a new state-of-the-art zero-shot FID of 6.16 on MS-COCO 30K, and 0.69 overall score on the GenEval benchmark. We hope our findings and results will encourage future efforts to further bridge the scaling gap between vision and language models.

The recent surge of interest in comprehensive multimodal models has necessitated the unification of diverse modalities. However, the unification suffers from disparate methodologies. Continuous visual generation necessitates the full-sequence diffusion-based approach, despite its divergence from the autoregressive modeling in the text domain. We posit that autoregressive modeling, i.e., predicting the future based on past deterministic experience, remains crucial in developing both a visual generation model and a potential unified multimodal model. In this paper, we explore an interpolation between the autoregressive modeling and full-parameters diffusion to model visual information. At its core, we present ACDiT, an Autoregressive blockwise Conditional Diffusion Transformer, where the block size of diffusion, i.e., the size of autoregressive units, can be flexibly adjusted to interpolate between token-wise autoregression and full-sequence diffusion. ACDiT is easy to implement, as simple as creating a Skip-Causal Attention Mask (SCAM) during training. During inference, the process iterates between diffusion denoising and autoregressive decoding that can make full use of KV-Cache. We verify the effectiveness of ACDiT on image and video generation tasks. We also demonstrate that benefitted from autoregressive modeling, ACDiT can be seamlessly used in visual understanding tasks despite being trained on the diffusion objective. The analysis of the trade-off between autoregressive modeling and diffusion demonstrates the potential of ACDiT to be used in long-horizon visual generation tasks. These strengths make it promising as the backbone of future unified models.

While inference-time scaling through search has revolutionized Large Language Models, translating these gains to image generation has proven difficult. Recent attempts to apply search strategies to continuous diffusion models show limited benefits, with simple random sampling often performing best. We demonstrate that the discrete, sequential nature of visual autoregressive models enables effective search for image generation. We show that beam search substantially improves text-to-image generation, enabling a 2B parameter autoregressive model to outperform a 12B parameter diffusion model across benchmarks. Systematic ablations show that this advantage comes from the discrete token space, which allows early pruning and computational reuse, and our verifier analysis highlights trade-offs between speed and reasoning capability. These findings suggest that model architecture, not just scale, is critical for inference-time optimization in visual generation.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models in modeling discrete categorical data. Yet diffusion models that directly work on discrete data space do not fully exploit the power of iterative refinement, as the signals are lost during the transition between discrete states. Existing continuous diffusion models for discrete data have limited performance compared to discrete approaches, and the unclear link between them restricts the development of diffusion models for discrete data. In this work, we propose a continuous diffusion model for language modeling that incorporates the geometry of the underlying categorical distribution. We establish a connection between the discrete diffusion and continuous flow on the statistical manifold, and building on the analogy, we introduce a simple design for the diffusion process that generalizes previous discrete diffusion models. We further propose a simulation-free training framework based on radial symmetry and a simple technique to address the high dimensionality of the manifold. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks and other modalities show that our method outperforms existing discrete diffusion models and approaches the performance of autoregressive models. Codes available at https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM{https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM}.

The scarcity of manipulation data has motivated the use of pretrained large models from other modalities in robotics. In this work, we build upon autoregressive video generation models to propose a Physical Autoregressive Model (PAR), where physical tokens combine frames and actions to represent the joint evolution of the robot and its environment. PAR leverages the world knowledge embedded in video pretraining to understand physical dynamics without requiring action pretraining, enabling accurate video prediction and consistent action trajectories. It also adopts a DiT-based de-tokenizer to model frames and actions as continuous tokens, mitigating quantization errors and facilitating mutual enhancement. Furthermore, we incorporate a causal mask with inverse kinematics, parallel training, and the KV-cache mechanism to further improve performance and efficiency. Experiments on the ManiSkill benchmark show that PAR achieves a 100\% success rate on the PushCube task, matches the performance of action-pretrained baselines on other tasks, and accurately predicts future videos with tightly aligned action trajectories. These findings underscore a promising direction for robotic manipulation by transferring world knowledge from autoregressive video pretraining. The project page is here: https://hcplab-sysu.github.io/PhysicalAutoregressiveModel/

Masked-based autoregressive models have demonstrated promising image generation capability in continuous space. However, their potential for video generation remains under-explored. In this paper, we propose VideoMAR, a concise and efficient decoder-only autoregressive image-to-video model with continuous tokens, composing temporal frame-by-frame and spatial masked generation. We first identify temporal causality and spatial bi-directionality as the first principle of video AR models, and propose the next-frame diffusion loss for the integration of mask and video generation. Besides, the huge cost and difficulty of long sequence autoregressive modeling is a basic but crucial issue. To this end, we propose the temporal short-to-long curriculum learning and spatial progressive resolution training, and employ progressive temperature strategy at inference time to mitigate the accumulation error. Furthermore, VideoMAR replicates several unique capacities of language models to video generation. It inherently bears high efficiency due to simultaneous temporal-wise KV cache and spatial-wise parallel generation, and presents the capacity of spatial and temporal extrapolation via 3D rotary embeddings. On the VBench-I2V benchmark, VideoMAR surpasses the previous state-of-the-art (Cosmos I2V) while requiring significantly fewer parameters (9.3%), training data (0.5%), and GPU resources (0.2%).

Autoregressive (AR) models for image generation typically adopt a two-stage paradigm of vector quantization and raster-scan ``next-token prediction", inspired by its great success in language modeling. However, due to the huge modality gap, image autoregressive models may require a systematic reevaluation from two perspectives: tokenizer format and regression direction. In this paper, we introduce the frequency progressive autoregressive (FAR) paradigm and instantiate FAR with the continuous tokenizer. Specifically, we identify spectral dependency as the desirable regression direction for FAR, wherein higher-frequency components build upon the lower one to progressively construct a complete image. This design seamlessly fits the causality requirement for autoregressive models and preserves the unique spatial locality of image data. Besides, we delve into the integration of FAR and the continuous tokenizer, introducing a series of techniques to address optimization challenges and improve the efficiency of training and inference processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of FAR through comprehensive experiments on the ImageNet dataset and verify its potential on text-to-image generation.

This paper addresses the challenge of text-conditioned streaming motion generation, which requires us to predict the next-step human pose based on variable-length historical motions and incoming texts. Existing methods struggle to achieve streaming motion generation, e.g., diffusion models are constrained by pre-defined motion lengths, while GPT-based methods suffer from delayed response and error accumulation problem due to discretized non-causal tokenization. To solve these problems, we propose MotionStreamer, a novel framework that incorporates a continuous causal latent space into a probabilistic autoregressive model. The continuous latents mitigate information loss caused by discretization and effectively reduce error accumulation during long-term autoregressive generation. In addition, by establishing temporal causal dependencies between current and historical motion latents, our model fully utilizes the available information to achieve accurate online motion decoding. Experiments show that our method outperforms existing approaches while offering more applications, including multi-round generation, long-term generation, and dynamic motion composition. Project Page: https://zju3dv.github.io/MotionStreamer/

Several recent studies have attempted to autoregressively generate continuous speech representations without discrete speech tokens by combining diffusion and autoregressive models, yet they often face challenges with excessive computational loads or suboptimal outcomes. In this work, we propose Diffusion Transformer Autoregressive Modeling (DiTAR), a patch-based autoregressive framework combining a language model with a diffusion transformer. This approach significantly enhances the efficacy of autoregressive models for continuous tokens and reduces computational demands. DiTAR utilizes a divide-and-conquer strategy for patch generation, where the language model processes aggregated patch embeddings and the diffusion transformer subsequently generates the next patch based on the output of the language model. For inference, we propose defining temperature as the time point of introducing noise during the reverse diffusion ODE to balance diversity and determinism. We also show in the extensive scaling analysis that DiTAR has superb scalability. In zero-shot speech generation, DiTAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in robustness, speaker similarity, and naturalness.

Prevailing autoregressive (AR) models for text-to-image generation either rely on heavy, computationally-intensive diffusion models to process continuous image tokens, or employ vector quantization (VQ) to obtain discrete tokens with quantization loss. In this paper, we push the autoregressive paradigm forward with NextStep-1, a 14B autoregressive model paired with a 157M flow matching head, training on discrete text tokens and continuous image tokens with next-token prediction objectives. NextStep-1 achieves state-of-the-art performance for autoregressive models in text-to-image generation tasks, exhibiting strong capabilities in high-fidelity image synthesis. Furthermore, our method shows strong performance in image editing, highlighting the power and versatility of our unified approach. To facilitate open research, we will release our code and models to the community.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance in both automatic speech recognition (ASR) and text-to-speech (TTS) systems, gradually becoming the mainstream approach. However, most current approaches address these tasks separately rather than through a unified framework. This work aims to integrate these two tasks into one unified model. Although discrete speech tokenization enables joint modeling, its inherent information loss limits performance in both recognition and generation. In this work, we present UniVoice, a unified LLM framework through continuous representations that seamlessly integrates speech recognition and synthesis within a single model. Our approach combines the strengths of autoregressive modeling for speech recognition with flow matching for high-quality generation. To mitigate the inherent divergence between autoregressive and flow-matching models, we further design a dual attention mechanism, which switches between a causal mask for recognition and a bidirectional attention mask for synthesis. Furthermore, the proposed text-prefix-conditioned speech infilling method enables high-fidelity zero-shot voice cloning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method can achieve or exceed current single-task modeling methods in both ASR and zero-shot TTS tasks. This work explores new possibilities for end-to-end speech understanding and generation. Code is available at https://github.com/gwh22/UniVoice.

We present Chain-of-Action (CoA), a novel visuo-motor policy paradigm built upon Trajectory Autoregressive Modeling. Unlike conventional approaches that predict next step action(s) forward, CoA generates an entire trajectory by explicit backward reasoning with task-specific goals through an action-level Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process. This process is unified within a single autoregressive structure: (1) the first token corresponds to a stable keyframe action that encodes the task-specific goals; and (2) subsequent action tokens are generated autoregressively, conditioned on the initial keyframe and previously predicted actions. This backward action reasoning enforces a global-to-local structure, allowing each local action to be tightly constrained by the final goal. To further realize the action reasoning structure, CoA incorporates four complementary designs: continuous action token representation; dynamic stopping for variable-length trajectory generation; reverse temporal ensemble; and multi-token prediction to balance action chunk modeling with global structure. As a result, CoA gives strong spatial generalization capabilities while preserving the flexibility and simplicity of a visuo-motor policy. Empirically, we observe CoA achieves the state-of-the-art performance across 60 RLBench tasks and 8 real-world manipulation tasks.

Autoregressive visual generation models typically rely on tokenizers to compress images into tokens that can be predicted sequentially. A fundamental dilemma exists in token representation: discrete tokens enable straightforward modeling with standard cross-entropy loss, but suffer from information loss and tokenizer training instability; continuous tokens better preserve visual details, but require complex distribution modeling, complicating the generation pipeline. In this paper, we propose TokenBridge, which bridges this gap by maintaining the strong representation capacity of continuous tokens while preserving the modeling simplicity of discrete tokens. To achieve this, we decouple discretization from the tokenizer training process through post-training quantization that directly obtains discrete tokens from continuous representations. Specifically, we introduce a dimension-wise quantization strategy that independently discretizes each feature dimension, paired with a lightweight autoregressive prediction mechanism that efficiently model the resulting large token space. Extensive experiments show that our approach achieves reconstruction and generation quality on par with continuous methods while using standard categorical prediction. This work demonstrates that bridging discrete and continuous paradigms can effectively harness the strengths of both approaches, providing a promising direction for high-quality visual generation with simple autoregressive modeling. Project page: https://yuqingwang1029.github.io/TokenBridge.

In this paper, we introduce a novel dIffusion language modEl pre-training framework for text generation, which we call GENIE. GENIE is a large-scale pretrained diffusion language model that consists of an encoder and a diffusion-based decoder, which can generate text by gradually transforming a random noise sequence into a coherent text sequence. To pre-train GENIE on a large-scale language corpus, we design a new continuous paragraph denoise objective, which encourages the diffusion-decoder to reconstruct a clean text paragraph from a corrupted version, while preserving the semantic and syntactic coherence. We evaluate GENIE on four downstream text generation benchmarks, namely XSum, CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and CommonGen. Our experimental results show that GENIE achieves comparable performance with the state-of-the-art autoregressive models on these benchmarks, and generates more diverse text samples. The code and models of GENIE are available at https://github.com/microsoft/ProphetNet/tree/master/GENIE.

We introduce SLED, an alternative approach to speech language modeling by encoding speech waveforms into sequences of continuous latent representations and modeling them autoregressively using an energy distance objective. The energy distance offers an analytical measure of the distributional gap by contrasting simulated and target samples, enabling efficient training to capture the underlying continuous autoregressive distribution. By bypassing reliance on residual vector quantization, SLED avoids discretization errors and eliminates the need for the complicated hierarchical architectures common in existing speech language models. It simplifies the overall modeling pipeline while preserving the richness of speech information and maintaining inference efficiency. Empirical results demonstrate that SLED achieves strong performance in both zero-shot and streaming speech synthesis, showing its potential for broader applications in general-purpose speech language models.

To advance continuous-valued token modeling and temporal-coherence enforcement, we propose FELLE, an autoregressive model that integrates language modeling with token-wise flow matching. By leveraging the autoregressive nature of language models and the generative efficacy of flow matching, FELLE effectively predicts continuous-valued tokens (mel-spectrograms). For each continuous-valued token, FELLE modifies the general prior distribution in flow matching by incorporating information from the previous step, improving coherence and stability. Furthermore, to enhance synthesis quality, FELLE introduces a coarse-to-fine flow-matching mechanism, generating continuous-valued tokens hierarchically, conditioned on the language model's output. Experimental results demonstrate the potential of incorporating flow-matching techniques in autoregressive mel-spectrogram modeling, leading to significant improvements in TTS generation quality, as shown in https://aka.ms/felle.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

Diffusion and flow matching models have significantly advanced media generation, yet their design space is well-explored, somewhat limiting further improvements. Concurrently, autoregressive (AR) models, particularly those generating continuous tokens, have emerged as a promising direction for unifying text and media generation. This paper introduces Transition Matching (TM), a novel discrete-time, continuous-state generative paradigm that unifies and advances both diffusion/flow models and continuous AR generation. TM decomposes complex generation tasks into simpler Markov transitions, allowing for expressive non-deterministic probability transition kernels and arbitrary non-continuous supervision processes, thereby unlocking new flexible design avenues. We explore these choices through three TM variants: (i) Difference Transition Matching (DTM), which generalizes flow matching to discrete-time by directly learning transition probabilities, yielding state-of-the-art image quality and text adherence as well as improved sampling efficiency. (ii) Autoregressive Transition Matching (ARTM) and (iii) Full History Transition Matching (FHTM) are partially and fully causal models, respectively, that generalize continuous AR methods. They achieve continuous causal AR generation quality comparable to non-causal approaches and potentially enable seamless integration with existing AR text generation techniques. Notably, FHTM is the first fully causal model to match or surpass the performance of flow-based methods on text-to-image task in continuous domains. We demonstrate these contributions through a rigorous large-scale comparison of TM variants and relevant baselines, maintaining a fixed architecture, training data, and hyperparameters.

The success of large language models in text processing has inspired their adaptation to speech modeling. However, since speech is continuous and complex, it is often discretized for autoregressive modeling. Speech tokens derived from self-supervised models (known as semantic tokens) typically focus on the linguistic aspects of speech but neglect prosodic information. As a result, models trained on these tokens can generate speech with reduced naturalness. Existing approaches try to fix this by adding pitch features to the semantic tokens. However, pitch alone cannot fully represent the range of paralinguistic attributes, and selecting the right features requires careful hand-engineering. To overcome this, we propose an end-to-end variational approach that automatically learns to encode these continuous speech attributes to enhance the semantic tokens. Our approach eliminates the need for manual extraction and selection of paralinguistic features. Moreover, it produces preferred speech continuations according to human raters. Code, samples and models are available at https://github.com/b04901014/vae-gslm.

We propose Lavida-O, a unified Masked Diffusion Model (MDM) for multimodal understanding and generation. Unlike existing multimodal MDMs such as MMaDa and Muddit which only support simple image-level understanding tasks and low-resolution image generation, Lavida-O presents a single framework that enables image-level understanding, object grounding, image editing, and high-resolution (1024px) text-to-image synthesis. Lavida-O incorporates a novel Elastic Mixture-of-Transformers (Elastic-MoT) architecture that couples a lightweight generation branch with a larger understanding branch, supported by token compression, universal text conditioning and stratified sampling for efficient and high-quality generation. Lavida-O further incorporates planning and iterative self-reflection in image generation and editing tasks, seamlessly boosting generation quality with its understanding capabilities. Lavida-O achieves state-of-the-art performance on a wide range of benchmarks including RefCOCO object grounding, GenEval text-to-image generation, and ImgEdit image editing, outperforming existing autoregressive models and continuous diffusion models such as Qwen2.5-VL and FluxKontext-dev, while offering considerable speedup at inference. These advances establish Lavida-O as a new paradigm for scalable multimodal reasoning and generation.

Large Language Models are prompting us to view more NLP tasks from a generative perspective. At the same time, they offer a new way of accessing information, mainly through the RAG framework. While there have been notable improvements for the autoregressive models, overcoming hallucination in the generated answers remains a continuous problem. A standard solution is to use commercial LLMs, such as GPT4, to evaluate these algorithms. However, such frameworks are expensive and not very transparent. Therefore, we propose a study which demonstrates the interest of open-weight models for evaluating RAG hallucination. We develop a lightweight approach using smaller, quantized LLMs to provide an accessible and interpretable metric that gives continuous scores for the generated answer with respect to their correctness and faithfulness. This score allows us to question decisions' reliability and explore thresholds to develop a new AUC metric as an alternative to correlation with human judgment.

Can continuous diffusion models bring the same performance breakthrough on natural language they did for image generation? To circumvent the discrete nature of text data, we can simply project tokens in a continuous space of embeddings, as is standard in language modeling. We propose Self-conditioned Embedding Diffusion, a continuous diffusion mechanism that operates on token embeddings and allows to learn flexible and scalable diffusion models for both conditional and unconditional text generation. Through qualitative and quantitative evaluation, we show that our text diffusion models generate samples comparable with those produced by standard autoregressive language models - while being in theory more efficient on accelerator hardware at inference time. Our work paves the way for scaling up diffusion models for text, similarly to autoregressive models, and for improving performance with recent refinements to continuous diffusion.

Recent years have seen significant advancements in foundation models through generative pre-training, yet algorithmic innovation in this space has largely stagnated around autoregressive models for discrete signals and diffusion models for continuous signals. This stagnation creates a bottleneck that prevents us from fully unlocking the potential of rich multi-modal data, which in turn limits the progress on multimodal intelligence. We argue that an inference-first perspective, which prioritizes scaling efficiency during inference time across sequence length and refinement steps, can inspire novel generative pre-training algorithms. Using Inductive Moment Matching (IMM) as a concrete example, we demonstrate how addressing limitations in diffusion models' inference process through targeted modifications yields a stable, single-stage algorithm that achieves superior sample quality with over an order of magnitude greater inference efficiency.

Diffusion models (DMs) have revolutionized generative learning. They utilize a diffusion process to encode data into a simple Gaussian distribution. However, encoding a complex, potentially multimodal data distribution into a single continuous Gaussian distribution arguably represents an unnecessarily challenging learning problem. We propose Discrete-Continuous Latent Variable Diffusion Models (DisCo-Diff) to simplify this task by introducing complementary discrete latent variables. We augment DMs with learnable discrete latents, inferred with an encoder, and train DM and encoder end-to-end. DisCo-Diff does not rely on pre-trained networks, making the framework universally applicable. The discrete latents significantly simplify learning the DM's complex noise-to-data mapping by reducing the curvature of the DM's generative ODE. An additional autoregressive transformer models the distribution of the discrete latents, a simple step because DisCo-Diff requires only few discrete variables with small codebooks. We validate DisCo-Diff on toy data, several image synthesis tasks as well as molecular docking, and find that introducing discrete latents consistently improves model performance. For example, DisCo-Diff achieves state-of-the-art FID scores on class-conditioned ImageNet-64/128 datasets with ODE sampler.

Despite the growing success of diffusion models in continuous-valued domains (e.g., images), similar efforts for discrete domains such as text have yet to match the performance of autoregressive language models. In this work, we present SSD-LM -- a diffusion-based language model with two key design choices. First, SSD-LM is semi-autoregressive, iteratively generating blocks of text, allowing for flexible output length at decoding time while enabling local bidirectional context updates. Second, it is simplex-based, performing diffusion on the natural vocabulary space rather than a learned latent space, allowing us to incorporate classifier guidance and modular control using off-the-shelf classifiers without any adaptation. We evaluate SSD-LM on unconstrained text generation benchmarks, and show that it matches or outperforms strong autoregressive GPT-2 models across standard quality and diversity metrics, while vastly outperforming diffusion-based baselines. On controlled text generation, SSD-LM also outperforms competitive baselines, with an extra advantage in modularity.

Text-conditioned human motion generation, which allows for user interaction through natural language, has become increasingly popular. Existing methods typically generate short, isolated motions based on a single input sentence. However, human motions are continuous and can extend over long periods, carrying rich semantics. Creating long, complex motions that precisely respond to streams of text descriptions, particularly in an online and real-time setting, remains a significant challenge. Furthermore, incorporating spatial constraints into text-conditioned motion generation presents additional challenges, as it requires aligning the motion semantics specified by text descriptions with geometric information, such as goal locations and 3D scene geometry. To address these limitations, we propose DartControl, in short DART, a Diffusion-based Autoregressive motion primitive model for Real-time Text-driven motion control. Our model effectively learns a compact motion primitive space jointly conditioned on motion history and text inputs using latent diffusion models. By autoregressively generating motion primitives based on the preceding history and current text input, DART enables real-time, sequential motion generation driven by natural language descriptions. Additionally, the learned motion primitive space allows for precise spatial motion control, which we formulate either as a latent noise optimization problem or as a Markov decision process addressed through reinforcement learning. We present effective algorithms for both approaches, demonstrating our model's versatility and superior performance in various motion synthesis tasks. Experiments show our method outperforms existing baselines in motion realism, efficiency, and controllability. Video results are available on the project page: https://zkf1997.github.io/DART/.

Long-context autoregressive modeling has significantly advanced language generation, but video generation still struggles to fully utilize extended temporal contexts. To investigate long-context video modeling, we introduce Frame AutoRegressive (FAR), a strong baseline for video autoregressive modeling. Just as language models learn causal dependencies between tokens (i.e., Token AR), FAR models temporal causal dependencies between continuous frames, achieving better convergence than Token AR and video diffusion transformers. Building on FAR, we observe that long-context vision modeling faces challenges due to visual redundancy. Existing RoPE lacks effective temporal decay for remote context and fails to extrapolate well to long video sequences. Additionally, training on long videos is computationally expensive, as vision tokens grow much faster than language tokens. To tackle these issues, we propose balancing locality and long-range dependency. We introduce FlexRoPE, an test-time technique that adds flexible temporal decay to RoPE, enabling extrapolation to 16x longer vision contexts. Furthermore, we propose long short-term context modeling, where a high-resolution short-term context window ensures fine-grained temporal consistency, while an unlimited long-term context window encodes long-range information using fewer tokens. With this approach, we can train on long video sequences with a manageable token context length. We demonstrate that FAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-video generation, providing a simple yet effective baseline for video autoregressive modeling.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

The success of autoregressive transformer models with discrete tokens has inspired quantization-based approaches for continuous modalities, though these often limit reconstruction quality. We therefore introduce SALAD, a per-token latent diffusion model for zero-shot text-to-speech, that operates on continuous representations. SALAD builds upon the recently proposed expressive diffusion head for image generation, and extends it to generate variable-length outputs. Our approach utilizes semantic tokens for providing contextual information and determining the stopping condition. We suggest three continuous variants for our method, extending popular discrete speech synthesis techniques. Additionally, we implement discrete baselines for each variant and conduct a comparative analysis of discrete versus continuous speech modeling techniques. Our results demonstrate that both continuous and discrete approaches are highly competent, and that SALAD achieves a superior intelligibility score while obtaining speech quality and speaker similarity on par with the ground-truth audio.

We introduce KALL-E, a novel autoregressive (AR) language modeling approach with next-distribution prediction for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. Unlike existing methods, KALL-E directly models and predicts the continuous speech distribution conditioned on text without relying on VAE- or diffusion-based components. Specifically, we use WaveVAE to extract continuous speech distributions from waveforms instead of using discrete speech tokens. A single AR language model predicts these continuous speech distributions from text, with a Kullback-Leibler divergence loss as the constraint. Experimental results show that KALL-E outperforms open-source implementations of YourTTS, VALL-E, NaturalSpeech 2, and CosyVoice in terms of naturalness and speaker similarity in zero-shot TTS scenarios. Moreover, KALL-E demonstrates exceptional zero-shot capabilities in emotion and accent cloning. Importantly, KALL-E presents a more straightforward and effective paradigm for using continuous speech representations in TTS. Audio samples are available at: https://zxf-icpc.github.io/kalle/.

Autoregressive (AR) models have recently shown strong performance in image generation, where a critical component is the visual tokenizer (VT) that maps continuous pixel inputs to discrete token sequences. The quality of the VT largely defines the upper bound of AR model performance. However, current discrete VTs fall significantly behind continuous variational autoencoders (VAEs), leading to degraded image reconstructions and poor preservation of details and text. Existing benchmarks focus on end-to-end generation quality, without isolating VT performance. To address this gap, we introduce VTBench, a comprehensive benchmark that systematically evaluates VTs across three core tasks: Image Reconstruction, Detail Preservation, and Text Preservation, and covers a diverse range of evaluation scenarios. We systematically assess state-of-the-art VTs using a set of metrics to evaluate the quality of reconstructed images. Our findings reveal that continuous VAEs produce superior visual representations compared to discrete VTs, particularly in retaining spatial structure and semantic detail. In contrast, the degraded representations produced by discrete VTs often lead to distorted reconstructions, loss of fine-grained textures, and failures in preserving text and object integrity. Furthermore, we conduct experiments on GPT-4o image generation and discuss its potential AR nature, offering new insights into the role of visual tokenization. We release our benchmark and codebase publicly to support further research and call on the community to develop strong, general-purpose open-source VTs.

Scaling Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models on large-scale data offers a promising path to achieving a more generalized driving intelligence. However, VLA models are limited by a ``supervision deficit'': the vast model capacity is supervised by sparse, low-dimensional actions, leaving much of their representational power underutilized. To remedy this, we propose DriveVLA-W0, a training paradigm that employs world modeling to predict future images. This task generates a dense, self-supervised signal that compels the model to learn the underlying dynamics of the driving environment. We showcase the paradigm's versatility by instantiating it for two dominant VLA archetypes: an autoregressive world model for VLAs that use discrete visual tokens, and a diffusion world model for those operating on continuous visual features. Building on the rich representations learned from world modeling, we introduce a lightweight action expert to address the inference latency for real-time deployment. Extensive experiments on the NAVSIM v1/v2 benchmark and a 680x larger in-house dataset demonstrate that DriveVLA-W0 significantly outperforms BEV and VLA baselines. Crucially, it amplifies the data scaling law, showing that performance gains accelerate as the training dataset size increases.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising approach for text generation, with recent works falling into two main categories: discrete and continuous diffusion models. Discrete diffusion models apply token corruption independently using categorical distributions, allowing for different diffusion progress across tokens but lacking fine-grained control. Continuous diffusion models map tokens to continuous spaces and apply fine-grained noise, but the diffusion progress is uniform across tokens, limiting their ability to capture semantic nuances. To address these limitations, we propose \underline{N}on-simultan\underline{e}ous C\underline{o}ntinuous \underline{Diff}usion Models (NeoDiff), a novel diffusion model that integrates the strengths of both discrete and continuous approaches. NeoDiff introduces a Poisson diffusion process for the forward process, enabling a flexible and fine-grained noising paradigm, and employs a time predictor for the reverse process to adaptively modulate the denoising progress based on token semantics. Furthermore, NeoDiff utilizes an optimized schedule for inference to ensure more precise noise control and improved performance. Our approach unifies the theories of discrete and continuous diffusion models, offering a more principled and effective framework for text generation. Experimental results on several text generation tasks demonstrate NeoDiff's superior performance compared to baselines of non-autoregressive continuous and discrete diffusion models, iterative-based methods and autoregressive diffusion-based methods. These results highlight NeoDiff's potential as a powerful tool for generating high-quality text and advancing the field of diffusion-based text generation.

We introduce Hybrid Autoregressive Transformer (HART), an autoregressive (AR) visual generation model capable of directly generating 1024x1024 images, rivaling diffusion models in image generation quality. Existing AR models face limitations due to the poor image reconstruction quality of their discrete tokenizers and the prohibitive training costs associated with generating 1024px images. To address these challenges, we present the hybrid tokenizer, which decomposes the continuous latents from the autoencoder into two components: discrete tokens representing the big picture and continuous tokens representing the residual components that cannot be represented by the discrete tokens. The discrete component is modeled by a scalable-resolution discrete AR model, while the continuous component is learned with a lightweight residual diffusion module with only 37M parameters. Compared with the discrete-only VAR tokenizer, our hybrid approach improves reconstruction FID from 2.11 to 0.30 on MJHQ-30K, leading to a 31% generation FID improvement from 7.85 to 5.38. HART also outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion models in both FID and CLIP score, with 4.5-7.7x higher throughput and 6.9-13.4x lower MACs. Our code is open sourced at https://github.com/mit-han-lab/hart.

We introduce X-Streamer, an end-to-end multimodal human world modeling framework for building digital human agents capable of infinite interactions across text, speech, and video within a single unified architecture. Starting from a single portrait, X-Streamer enables real-time, open-ended video calls driven by streaming multimodal inputs. At its core is a Thinker-Actor dual-transformer architecture that unifies multimodal understanding and generation, turning a static portrait into persistent and intelligent audiovisual interactions. The Thinker module perceives and reasons over streaming user inputs, while its hidden states are translated by the Actor into synchronized multimodal streams in real time. Concretely, the Thinker leverages a pretrained large language-speech model, while the Actor employs a chunk-wise autoregressive diffusion model that cross-attends to the Thinker's hidden states to produce time-aligned multimodal responses with interleaved discrete text and audio tokens and continuous video latents. To ensure long-horizon stability, we design inter- and intra-chunk attentions with time-aligned multimodal positional embeddings for fine-grained cross-modality alignment and context retention, further reinforced by chunk-wise diffusion forcing and global identity referencing. X-Streamer runs in real time on two A100 GPUs, sustaining hours-long consistent video chat experiences from arbitrary portraits and paving the way toward unified world modeling of interactive digital humans.

Codec-based text-to-speech (TTS) models have recently gained traction for their efficiency and strong performance in voice cloning. However, codec-based TTS faces limitations due to the challenges of pretraining robust speech codecs and the quality degradation introduced by quantization errors. Emerging evidence suggests that continuous-valued generative models can alleviate these issues and serve as a promising alternative. Yet, effectively modelling diverse speech patterns and developing reliable sampling strategies for continuous-valued autoregressive (AR) TTS remains underexplored. In this work, we propose BELLE, Bayesian evidential learning with language modelling for TTS, a novel continuous-valued AR framework that directly predicts mel-spectrograms from textual input. BELLE treats each mel-spectrogram frame as a Gaussian distribution sampled from a learned hyper distribution, enabling principled uncertainty estimation, particularly in scenarios with parallel data (i.e., one text-audio prompt paired with multiple speech samples). To obtain such data, diverse speech samples are synthesized using multiple pre-trained TTS models given the same text-audio prompts, which are distilled into BELLE via Bayesian evidential learning. Experimental results indicate that BELLE demonstrates highly competitive performance compared with the current best open-source TTS models, even though BELLE is trained on a large amount of synthetic data and uses only approximately one-tenth of their training data. Audio samples generated by BELLE are available at https://belletts.github.io/Belle/. The code, checkpoints, and synthetic data will be released after the paper is accepted.

Controlling the behavior of language models (LMs) without re-training is a major open problem in natural language generation. While recent works have demonstrated successes on controlling simple sentence attributes (e.g., sentiment), there has been little progress on complex, fine-grained controls (e.g., syntactic structure). To address this challenge, we develop a new non-autoregressive language model based on continuous diffusions that we call Diffusion-LM. Building upon the recent successes of diffusion models in continuous domains, Diffusion-LM iteratively denoises a sequence of Gaussian vectors into word vectors, yielding a sequence of intermediate latent variables. The continuous, hierarchical nature of these intermediate variables enables a simple gradient-based algorithm to perform complex, controllable generation tasks. We demonstrate successful control of Diffusion-LM for six challenging fine-grained control tasks, significantly outperforming prior work.

As large language models expand beyond natural language to domains such as mathematics, multimodal understanding, and embodied agents, tokens increasingly reflect metric relationships rather than purely linguistic meaning. We introduce DIST2Loss, a distance-aware framework designed to train autoregressive discrete models by leveraging predefined distance relationships among output tokens. At its core, DIST2Loss transforms continuous exponential family distributions derived from inherent distance metrics into discrete, categorical optimization targets compatible with the models' architectures. This approach enables the models to learn and preserve meaningful distance relationships during token generation while maintaining compatibility with existing architectures. Empirical evaluations show consistent performance gains in diverse multimodal applications, including visual grounding, robotic manipulation, generative reward modeling, and image generation using vector-quantized features. These improvements are pronounced in cases of limited training data, highlighting DIST2Loss's effectiveness in resource-constrained settings.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models adapt large vision-language backbones to map images and instructions to robot actions. However, prevailing VLA decoders either generate actions autoregressively in a fixed left-to-right order or attach continuous diffusion or flow matching heads outside the backbone, demanding specialized training and iterative sampling that hinder a unified, scalable architecture. We present Discrete Diffusion VLA, a single-transformer policy that models discretized action chunks with discrete diffusion and is trained with the same cross-entropy objective as the VLM backbone. The design retains diffusion's progressive refinement paradigm while remaining natively compatible with the discrete token interface of VLMs. Our method achieves an adaptive decoding order that resolves easy action elements before harder ones and uses secondary remasking to revisit uncertain predictions across refinement rounds, which improves consistency and enables robust error correction. This unified decoder preserves pretrained vision language priors, supports parallel decoding, breaks the autoregressive bottleneck, and reduces the number of function evaluations. Discrete Diffusion VLA achieves 96.3% avg. SR on LIBERO, 71.2% visual matching on SimplerEnv Fractal and 49.3% overall on SimplerEnv Bridge, improving over both autoregressive and continuous diffusion baselines. These findings indicate that discrete-diffusion action decoder supports precise action modeling and consistent training, laying groundwork for scaling VLA to larger models and datasets.

We present UniFluid, a unified autoregressive framework for joint visual generation and understanding leveraging continuous visual tokens. Our unified autoregressive architecture processes multimodal image and text inputs, generating discrete tokens for text and continuous tokens for image. We find though there is an inherent trade-off between the image generation and understanding task, a carefully tuned training recipe enables them to improve each other. By selecting an appropriate loss balance weight, the unified model achieves results comparable to or exceeding those of single-task baselines on both tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that employing stronger pre-trained LLMs and random-order generation during training is important to achieve high-fidelity image generation within this unified framework. Built upon the Gemma model series, UniFluid exhibits competitive performance across both image generation and understanding, demonstrating strong transferability to various downstream tasks, including image editing for generation, as well as visual captioning and question answering for understanding.

Recent progress in multimodal generation has increasingly combined autoregressive (AR) and diffusion-based approaches, leveraging their complementary strengths: AR models capture long-range dependencies and produce fluent, context-aware outputs, while diffusion models operate in continuous latent spaces to refine high-fidelity visual details. However, existing hybrids often lack systematic guidance on how and why to allocate model capacity between these paradigms. In this work, we introduce MADFormer, a Mixed Autoregressive and Diffusion Transformer that serves as a testbed for analyzing AR-diffusion trade-offs. MADFormer partitions image generation into spatial blocks, using AR layers for one-pass global conditioning across blocks and diffusion layers for iterative local refinement within each block. Through controlled experiments on FFHQ-1024 and ImageNet, we identify two key insights: (1) block-wise partitioning significantly improves performance on high-resolution images, and (2) vertically mixing AR and diffusion layers yields better quality-efficiency balances--improving FID by up to 75% under constrained inference compute. Our findings offer practical design principles for future hybrid generative models.

Learning effective visuomotor policies for robotic manipulation is challenging, as it requires generating precise actions while maintaining computational efficiency. Existing methods remain unsatisfactory due to inherent limitations in the essential action representation and the basic network architectures. We observe that representing actions in the frequency domain captures the structured nature of motion more effectively: low-frequency components reflect global movement patterns, while high-frequency components encode fine local details. Additionally, robotic manipulation tasks of varying complexity demand different levels of modeling precision across these frequency bands. Motivated by this, we propose a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that progressively models hierarchical frequency components. To further enhance precision, we introduce continuous latent representations that maintain smoothness and continuity in the action space. Extensive experiments across diverse 2D and 3D robotic manipulation benchmarks demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and efficiency, showcasing the potential of a frequency-domain autoregressive framework with continuous tokens for generalized robotic manipulation.Code is available at https://github.com/4DVLab/Freqpolicy

Diffusion models have exhibited remarkable capabilities in text-to-image generation. However, their performance in image-to-text generation, specifically image captioning, has lagged behind Auto-Regressive (AR) models, casting doubt on their applicability for such tasks. In this work, we revisit diffusion models, highlighting their capacity for holistic context modeling and parallel decoding. With these benefits, diffusion models can alleviate the inherent limitations of AR methods, including their slow inference speed, error propagation, and unidirectional constraints. Furthermore, we identify the prior underperformance of diffusion models stemming from the absence of an effective latent space for image-text alignment, and the discrepancy between continuous diffusion processes and discrete textual data. In response, we introduce a novel architecture, LaDiC, which utilizes a split BERT to create a dedicated latent space for captions and integrates a regularization module to manage varying text lengths. Our framework also includes a diffuser for semantic image-to-text conversion and a Back&Refine technique to enhance token interactivity during inference. LaDiC achieves state-of-the-art performance for diffusion-based methods on the MS COCO dataset with 38.2 BLEU@4 and 126.2 CIDEr, demonstrating exceptional performance without pre-training or ancillary modules. This indicates strong competitiveness with AR models, revealing the previously untapped potential of diffusion models in image-to-text generation.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

We introduce Orthus, an autoregressive (AR) transformer that excels in generating images given textual prompts, answering questions based on visual inputs, and even crafting lengthy image-text interleaved contents. Unlike prior arts on unified multimodal modeling, Orthus simultaneously copes with discrete text tokens and continuous image features under the AR modeling principle. The continuous treatment of visual signals minimizes the information loss for both image understanding and generation while the fully AR formulation renders the characterization of the correlation between modalities straightforward. The key mechanism enabling Orthus to leverage these advantages lies in its modality-specific heads -- one regular language modeling (LM) head predicts discrete text tokens and one diffusion head generates continuous image features conditioning on the output of the backbone. We devise an efficient strategy for building Orthus -- by substituting the Vector Quantization (VQ) operation in the existing unified AR model with a soft alternative, introducing a diffusion head, and tuning the added modules to reconstruct images, we can create an Orthus-base model effortlessly (e.g., within mere 72 A100 GPU hours). Orthus-base can further embrace post-training to better model interleaved images and texts. Empirically, Orthus surpasses competing baselines including Show-o and Chameleon across standard benchmarks, achieving a GenEval score of 0.58 and an MME-P score of 1265.8 using 7B parameters. Orthus also shows exceptional mixed-modality generation capabilities, reflecting the potential for handling intricate practical generation tasks.

Audio language models have recently emerged as a promising approach for various audio generation tasks, relying on audio tokenizers to encode waveforms into sequences of discrete symbols. Audio tokenization often poses a necessary compromise between code bitrate and reconstruction accuracy. When dealing with low-bitrate audio codes, language models are constrained to process only a subset of the information embedded in the audio, which in turn restricts their generative capabilities. To circumvent these issues, we propose encoding audio as vector sequences in continuous space mathbb R^d and autoregressively generating these sequences using a decoder-only diffusion transformer (ARDiT). Our findings indicate that ARDiT excels in zero-shot text-to-speech and exhibits performance that compares to or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models. High-bitrate continuous speech representation enables almost flawless reconstruction, allowing our model to achieve nearly perfect speech editing. Our experiments reveal that employing Integral Kullback-Leibler (IKL) divergence for distillation at each autoregressive step significantly boosts the perceived quality of the samples. Simultaneously, it condenses the iterative sampling process of the diffusion model into a single step. Furthermore, ARDiT can be trained to predict several continuous vectors in one step, significantly reducing latency during sampling. Impressively, one of our models can generate 170 ms of 24 kHz speech per evaluation step with minimal degradation in performance. Audio samples are available at http://ardit-tts.github.io/ .

Directly modeling the explicit likelihood of the raw data distribution is key topic in the machine learning area, which achieves the scaling successes in Large Language Models by autoregressive modeling. However, continuous AR modeling over visual pixel data suffer from extremely long sequences and high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, we present FARMER, a novel end-to-end generative framework that unifies Normalizing Flows (NF) and Autoregressive (AR) models for tractable likelihood estimation and high-quality image synthesis directly from raw pixels. FARMER employs an invertible autoregressive flow to transform images into latent sequences, whose distribution is modeled implicitly by an autoregressive model. To address the redundancy and complexity in pixel-level modeling, we propose a self-supervised dimension reduction scheme that partitions NF latent channels into informative and redundant groups, enabling more effective and efficient AR modeling. Furthermore, we design a one-step distillation scheme to significantly accelerate inference speed and introduce a resampling-based classifier-free guidance algorithm to boost image generation quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FARMER achieves competitive performance compared to existing pixel-based generative models while providing exact likelihoods and scalable training.

We present MELLE, a novel continuous-valued tokens based language modeling approach for text to speech synthesis (TTS). MELLE autoregressively generates continuous mel-spectrogram frames directly from text condition, bypassing the need for vector quantization, which are originally designed for audio compression and sacrifice fidelity compared to mel-spectrograms. Specifically, (i) instead of cross-entropy loss, we apply regression loss with a proposed spectrogram flux loss function to model the probability distribution of the continuous-valued tokens. (ii) we have incorporated variational inference into MELLE to facilitate sampling mechanisms, thereby enhancing the output diversity and model robustness. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to the two-stage codec language models VALL-E and its variants, the single-stage MELLE mitigates robustness issues by avoiding the inherent flaws of sampling discrete codes, achieves superior performance across multiple metrics, and, most importantly, offers a more streamlined paradigm. See https://aka.ms/melle for demos of our work.

Typical large vision-language models (LVLMs) apply autoregressive supervision solely to textual sequences, without fully incorporating the visual modality into the learning process. This results in three key limitations: (1) an inability to utilize images without accompanying captions, (2) the risk that captions omit critical visual details, and (3) the challenge that certain vision-centric content cannot be adequately conveyed through text. As a result, current LVLMs often prioritize vision-to-language alignment while potentially overlooking fine-grained visual information. While some prior works have explored autoregressive image generation, effectively leveraging autoregressive visual supervision to enhance image understanding remains an open challenge. In this paper, we introduce Autoregressive Semantic Visual Reconstruction (ASVR), which enables joint learning of visual and textual modalities within a unified autoregressive framework. We show that autoregressively reconstructing the raw visual appearance of images does not enhance and may even impair multimodal understanding. In contrast, autoregressively reconstructing the semantic representation of images consistently improves comprehension. Notably, we find that even when models are given continuous image features as input, they can effectively reconstruct discrete semantic tokens, resulting in stable and consistent improvements across a wide range of multimodal understanding benchmarks. Our approach delivers significant performance gains across varying data scales (556k-2M) and types of LLM bacbones. Specifically, ASVR improves LLaVA-1.5 by 5% in average scores across 14 multimodal benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/AlenjandroWang/ASVR.

Traditional transformer-based semantic segmentation relies on quantized embeddings. However, our analysis reveals that autoencoder accuracy on segmentation mask using quantized embeddings (e.g. VQ-VAE) is 8% lower than continuous-valued embeddings (e.g. KL-VAE). Motivated by this, we propose a continuous-valued embedding framework for semantic segmentation. By reformulating semantic mask generation as a continuous image-to-embedding diffusion process, our approach eliminates the need for discrete latent representations while preserving fine-grained spatial and semantic details. Our key contribution includes a diffusion-guided autoregressive transformer that learns a continuous semantic embedding space by modeling long-range dependencies in image features. Our framework contains a unified architecture combining a VAE encoder for continuous feature extraction, a diffusion-guided transformer for conditioned embedding generation, and a VAE decoder for semantic mask reconstruction. Our setting facilitates zero-shot domain adaptation capabilities enabled by the continuity of the embedding space. Experiments across diverse datasets (e.g., Cityscapes and domain-shifted variants) demonstrate state-of-the-art robustness to distribution shifts, including adverse weather (e.g., fog, snow) and viewpoint variations. Our model also exhibits strong noise resilience, achieving robust performance (approx 95% AP compared to baseline) under gaussian noise, moderate motion blur, and moderate brightness/contrast variations, while experiencing only a moderate impact (approx 90% AP compared to baseline) from 50% salt and pepper noise, saturation and hue shifts. Code available: https://github.com/mahmed10/CAMSS.git

Scaling up deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods presents a significant challenge. Following developments in generative modelling, model-based RL positions itself as a strong contender. Recent advances in sequence modelling have led to effective transformer-based world models, albeit at the price of heavy computations due to the long sequences of tokens required to accurately simulate environments. In this work, we propose Delta-IRIS, a new agent with a world model architecture composed of a discrete autoencoder that encodes stochastic deltas between time steps and an autoregressive transformer that predicts future deltas by summarizing the current state of the world with continuous tokens. In the Crafter benchmark, Delta-IRIS sets a new state of the art at multiple frame budgets, while being an order of magnitude faster to train than previous attention-based approaches. We release our code and models at https://github.com/vmicheli/delta-iris.

Multimodal generative models require a unified approach to handle both discrete data (e.g., text and code) and continuous data (e.g., image, audio, video). In this work, we propose Latent Language Modeling (LatentLM), which seamlessly integrates continuous and discrete data using causal Transformers. Specifically, we employ a variational autoencoder (VAE) to represent continuous data as latent vectors and introduce next-token diffusion for autoregressive generation of these vectors. Additionally, we develop sigma-VAE to address the challenges of variance collapse, which is crucial for autoregressive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of LatentLM across various modalities. In image generation, LatentLM surpasses Diffusion Transformers in both performance and scalability. When integrated into multimodal large language models, LatentLM provides a general-purpose interface that unifies multimodal generation and understanding. Experimental results show that LatentLM achieves favorable performance compared to Transfusion and vector quantized models in the setting of scaling up training tokens. In text-to-speech synthesis, LatentLM outperforms the state-of-the-art VALL-E 2 model in speaker similarity and robustness, while requiring 10x fewer decoding steps. The results establish LatentLM as a highly effective and scalable approach to advance large multimodal models.

Dance requires skillful composition of complex movements that follow rhythmic, tonal and timbral features of music. Formally, generating dance conditioned on a piece of music can be expressed as a problem of modelling a high-dimensional continuous motion signal, conditioned on an audio signal. In this work we make two contributions to tackle this problem. First, we present a novel probabilistic autoregressive architecture that models the distribution over future poses with a normalizing flow conditioned on previous poses as well as music context, using a multimodal transformer encoder. Second, we introduce the currently largest 3D dance-motion dataset, obtained with a variety of motion-capture technologies, and including both professional and casual dancers. Using this dataset, we compare our new model against two baselines, via objective metrics and a user study, and show that both the ability to model a probability distribution, as well as being able to attend over a large motion and music context are necessary to produce interesting, diverse, and realistic dance that matches the music.

Unified multimodal large language models (MLLMs) aim to integrate multimodal understanding and generation abilities through a single framework. Despite their versatility, existing open-source unified models exhibit performance gaps against domain-specific architectures. To bridge this gap, we present Nexus-Gen, a unified model that synergizes the language reasoning capabilities of LLMs with the image synthesis power of diffusion models. To align the embedding space of the LLM and diffusion model, we conduct a dual-phase alignment training process. (1) The autoregressive LLM learns to predict image embeddings conditioned on multimodal inputs, while (2) the vision decoder is trained to reconstruct high-fidelity images from these embeddings. During training the LLM, we identified a critical discrepancy between the autoregressive paradigm's training and inference phases, where error accumulation in continuous embedding space severely degrades generation quality. To avoid this issue, we introduce a prefilled autoregression strategy that prefills input sequence with position-embedded special tokens instead of continuous embeddings. Through dual-phase training, Nexus-Gen has developed the integrated capability to comprehensively address the image understanding, generation and editing tasks. All models, datasets, and codes are published at https://github.com/modelscope/Nexus-Gen.git to facilitate further advancements across the field.

Generating 3D human motion from text descriptions remains challenging due to the diverse and complex nature of human motion. While existing methods excel within the training distribution, they often struggle with out-of-distribution motions, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. Existing VQVAE-based methods often fail to represent novel motions faithfully using discrete tokens, which hampers their ability to generalize beyond seen data. Meanwhile, diffusion-based methods operating on continuous representations often lack fine-grained control over individual frames. To address these challenges, we propose a robust motion generation framework MoMADiff, which combines masked modeling with diffusion processes to generate motion using frame-level continuous representations. Our model supports flexible user-provided keyframe specification, enabling precise control over both spatial and temporal aspects of motion synthesis. MoMADiff demonstrates strong generalization capability on novel text-to-motion datasets with sparse keyframes as motion prompts. Extensive experiments on two held-out datasets and two standard benchmarks show that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models in motion quality, instruction fidelity, and keyframe adherence. The code is available at: https://github.com/zzysteve/MoMADiff

In this paper, we propose a unified framework that leverages a single pretrained LLM for Motion-related Multimodal Generation, referred to as MoMug. MoMug integrates diffusion-based continuous motion generation with the model's inherent autoregressive discrete text prediction capabilities by fine-tuning a pretrained LLM. This enables seamless switching between continuous motion output and discrete text token prediction within a single model architecture, effectively combining the strengths of both diffusion- and LLM-based approaches. Experimental results show that, compared to the most recent LLM-based baseline, MoMug improves FID by 38% and mean accuracy across seven metrics by 16.61% on the text-to-motion task. Additionally, it improves mean accuracy across eight metrics by 8.44% on the text-to-motion task. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach to integrate diffusion- and LLM-based generation within a single model for motion-related multimodal tasks while maintaining low training costs. This establishes a foundation for future advancements in motion-related generation, paving the way for high-quality yet cost-efficient motion synthesis.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) extend the success of language models to visual understanding, and recent efforts have sought to build unified MLLMs that support both understanding and generation. However, constructing such models remains challenging: hybrid approaches combine continuous embeddings with diffusion or flow-based objectives, producing high-quality images but breaking the autoregressive paradigm, while pure autoregressive approaches unify text and image prediction over discrete visual tokens but often face trade-offs between semantic alignment and pixel-level fidelity. In this work, we present Bridge, a pure autoregressive unified MLLM that augments pre-trained visual understanding models with generative ability through a Mixture-of-Transformers architecture, enabling both image understanding and generation within a single next-token prediction framework. To further improve visual generation fidelity, we propose a semantic-to-pixel discrete representation that integrates compact semantic tokens with fine-grained pixel tokens, achieving strong language alignment and precise description of visual details with only a 7.9% increase in sequence length. Extensive experiments across diverse multimodal benchmarks demonstrate that Bridge achieves competitive or superior results in both understanding and generation benchmarks, while requiring less training data and reduced training time compared to prior unified MLLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs), benefiting from the auto-regressive modelling approach performed on massive unannotated texts corpora, demonstrates powerful perceptual and reasoning capabilities. However, as for extending auto-regressive modelling to multi-modal scenarios to build Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs), there lies a great difficulty that the image information is processed in the LMM as continuous visual embeddings, which cannot obtain discrete supervised labels for classification. In this paper, we successfully perform multi-modal auto-regressive modeling with a unified objective for the first time. Specifically, we propose the concept of visual words, which maps the visual features to probability distributions over LLM's vocabulary, providing supervision information for visual modelling. We further explore the distribution of visual features in the semantic space within LMM and the possibility of using text embeddings to represent visual information. Experimental results and ablation studies on 5 VQA tasks and 4 benchmark toolkits validate the powerful performance of our proposed approach.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

We introduce UniToken, an auto-regressive generation model that encodes visual inputs through a combination of discrete and continuous representations, enabling seamless integration of unified visual understanding and image generation tasks. Unlike previous approaches that rely on unilateral visual representations, our unified visual encoding framework captures both high-level semantics and low-level details, delivering multidimensional information that empowers heterogeneous tasks to selectively assimilate domain-specific knowledge based on their inherent characteristics. Through in-depth experiments, we uncover key principles for developing a unified model capable of both visual understanding and image generation. Extensive evaluations across a diverse range of prominent benchmarks demonstrate that UniToken achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing existing approaches. These results establish UniToken as a robust foundation for future research in this domain. The code and models are available at https://github.com/SxJyJay/UniToken.

Recent advancements in multi-modal large language models have propelled the development of joint probabilistic models capable of both image understanding and generation. However, we have identified that recent methods inevitably suffer from loss of image information during understanding task, due to either image discretization or diffusion denoising steps. To address this issue, we propose a novel Multi-Modal Auto-Regressive (MMAR) probabilistic modeling framework. Unlike discretization line of method, MMAR takes in continuous-valued image tokens to avoid information loss. Differing from diffusion-based approaches, we disentangle the diffusion process from auto-regressive backbone model by employing a light-weight diffusion head on top each auto-regressed image patch embedding. In this way, when the model transits from image generation to understanding through text generation, the backbone model's hidden representation of the image is not limited to the last denoising step. To successfully train our method, we also propose a theoretically proven technique that addresses the numerical stability issue and a training strategy that balances the generation and understanding task goals. Through extensive evaluations on 18 image understanding benchmarks, MMAR demonstrates much more superior performance than other joint multi-modal models, matching the method that employs pretrained CLIP vision encoder, meanwhile being able to generate high quality images at the same time. We also showed that our method is scalable with larger data and model size.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control often requires large amounts of online interaction data. Value-based RL methods can mitigate this burden by offering relatively high sample efficiency. Some studies further enhance sample efficiency by incorporating offline demonstration data to "kick-start" training, achieving promising results in continuous control. However, they typically compute the Q-function independently for each action dimension, neglecting interdependencies and making it harder to identify optimal actions when learning from suboptimal data, such as non-expert demonstration and online-collected data during the training process. To address these issues, we propose Auto-Regressive Soft Q-learning (ARSQ), a value-based RL algorithm that models Q-values in a coarse-to-fine, auto-regressive manner. First, ARSQ decomposes the continuous action space into discrete spaces in a coarse-to-fine hierarchy, enhancing sample efficiency for fine-grained continuous control tasks. Next, it auto-regressively predicts dimensional action advantages within each decision step, enabling more effective decision-making in continuous control tasks. We evaluate ARSQ on two continuous control benchmarks, RLBench and D4RL, integrating demonstration data into online training. On D4RL, which includes non-expert demonstrations, ARSQ achieves an average 1.62times performance improvement over SOTA value-based baseline. On RLBench, which incorporates expert demonstrations, ARSQ surpasses various baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in learning from suboptimal online-collected data. Project page is at https://sites.google.com/view/ar-soft-q

Recent advances in GPT-4o like multi-modality models have demonstrated remarkable progress for direct speech-to-speech conversation, with real-time speech interaction experience and strong speech understanding ability. However, current research focuses on discrete speech tokens to align with discrete text tokens for language modelling, which depends on an audio codec with residual connections or independent group tokens, such a codec usually leverages large scale and diverse datasets training to ensure that the discrete speech codes have good representation for varied domain, noise, style data reconstruction as well as a well-designed codec quantizer and encoder-decoder architecture for discrete token language modelling. This paper introduces Flow-Omni, a continuous speech token based GPT-4o like model, capable of real-time speech interaction and low streaming latency. Specifically, first, instead of cross-entropy loss only, we combine flow matching loss with a pretrained autoregressive LLM and a small MLP network to predict the probability distribution of the continuous-valued speech tokens from speech prompt. second, we incorporated the continuous speech tokens to Flow-Omni multi-modality training, thereby achieving robust speech-to-speech performance with discrete text tokens and continuous speech tokens together. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to discrete text and speech multi-modality training and its variants, the continuous speech tokens mitigate robustness issues by avoiding the inherent flaws of discrete speech code's representation loss for LLM.

Though recent advances in multimodal models have demonstrated strong capabilities and opportunities in unified understanding and generation, the development of unified motion-language models remains underexplored. To enable such models with high-fidelity human motion, two core challenges must be addressed. The first is the reconstruction gap between the continuous motion modality and discrete representation in an autoregressive manner, and the second is the degradation of language intelligence during unified training. Inspired by the mixture of experts, we propose MotionGPT3, a bimodal motion-language model that treats human motion as a second modality, decoupling motion modeling via separate model parameters and enabling both effective cross-modal interaction and efficient multimodal scaling training. To preserve language intelligence, the text branch retains the original structure and parameters of the pretrained language model, while a new motion branch is integrated via a shared attention mechanism, enabling bidirectional information flow between two modalities. We first employ a motion Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to encode raw human motion into latent representations. Based on this continuous latent space, the motion branch predicts motion latents directly from intermediate hidden states using a diffusion head, bypassing discrete tokenization. Extensive experiments show that our approach achieves competitive performance on both motion understanding and generation tasks while preserving strong language capabilities, establishing a unified bimodal motion diffusion framework within an autoregressive manner.

Generative models for structure-based drug design (SBDD) have shown promising results in recent years. Existing works mainly focus on how to generate molecules with higher binding affinity, ignoring the feasibility prerequisites for generated 3D poses and resulting in false positives. We conduct thorough studies on key factors of ill-conformational problems when applying autoregressive methods and diffusion to SBDD, including mode collapse and hybrid continuous-discrete space. In this paper, we introduce MolCRAFT, the first SBDD model that operates in the continuous parameter space, together with a novel noise reduced sampling strategy. Empirical results show that our model consistently achieves superior performance in binding affinity with more stable 3D structure, demonstrating our ability to accurately model interatomic interactions. To our best knowledge, MolCRAFT is the first to achieve reference-level Vina Scores (-6.59 kcal/mol) with comparable molecular size, outperforming other strong baselines by a wide margin (-0.84 kcal/mol). Code is available at https://github.com/AlgoMole/MolCRAFT.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

Autoregressive modeling has been a huge success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). Recently, autoregressive models have emerged as a significant area of focus in computer vision, where they excel in producing high-quality visual content. Autoregressive models in NLP typically operate on subword tokens. However, the representation strategy in computer vision can vary in different levels, i.e., pixel-level, token-level, or scale-level, reflecting the diverse and hierarchical nature of visual data compared to the sequential structure of language. This survey comprehensively examines the literature on autoregressive models applied to vision. To improve readability for researchers from diverse research backgrounds, we start with preliminary sequence representation and modeling in vision. Next, we divide the fundamental frameworks of visual autoregressive models into three general sub-categories, including pixel-based, token-based, and scale-based models based on the strategy of representation. We then explore the interconnections between autoregressive models and other generative models. Furthermore, we present a multi-faceted categorization of autoregressive models in computer vision, including image generation, video generation, 3D generation, and multi-modal generation. We also elaborate on their applications in diverse domains, including emerging domains such as embodied AI and 3D medical AI, with about 250 related references. Finally, we highlight the current challenges to autoregressive models in vision with suggestions about potential research directions. We have also set up a Github repository to organize the papers included in this survey at: https://github.com/ChaofanTao/Autoregressive-Models-in-Vision-Survey.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

Autoregressive models have shown remarkable success in image generation by adapting sequential prediction techniques from language modeling. However, applying these approaches to images requires discretizing continuous pixel data through vector quantization methods like VQ-VAE. To alleviate the quantization errors that existed in VQ-VAE, recent works tend to use larger codebooks. However, this will accordingly expand vocabulary size, complicating the autoregressive modeling task. This paper aims to find a way to enjoy the benefits of large codebooks without making autoregressive modeling more difficult. Through empirical investigation, we discover that tokens with similar codeword representations produce similar effects on the final generated image, revealing significant redundancy in large codebooks. Based on this insight, we propose to predict tokens from coarse to fine (CTF), realized by assigning the same coarse label for similar tokens. Our framework consists of two stages: (1) an autoregressive model that sequentially predicts coarse labels for each token in the sequence, and (2) an auxiliary model that simultaneously predicts fine-grained labels for all tokens conditioned on their coarse labels. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate our method's superior performance, achieving an average improvement of 59 points in Inception Score compared to baselines. Notably, despite adding an inference step, our approach achieves faster sampling speeds.

The development of autoregressive modeling (AM) in computer vision lags behind natural language processing (NLP) in self-supervised pre-training. This is mainly caused by the challenge that images are not sequential signals and lack a natural order when applying autoregressive modeling. In this study, inspired by human beings' way of grasping an image, i.e., focusing on the main object first, we present a semantic-aware autoregressive image modeling (SemAIM) method to tackle this challenge. The key insight of SemAIM is to autoregressive model images from the semantic patches to the less semantic patches. To this end, we first calculate a semantic-aware permutation of patches according to their feature similarities and then perform the autoregression procedure based on the permutation. In addition, considering that the raw pixels of patches are low-level signals and are not ideal prediction targets for learning high-level semantic representation, we also explore utilizing the patch features as the prediction targets. Extensive experiments are conducted on a broad range of downstream tasks, including image classification, object detection, and instance/semantic segmentation, to evaluate the performance of SemAIM. The results demonstrate SemAIM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with other self-supervised methods. Specifically, with ViT-B, SemAIM achieves 84.1% top-1 accuracy for fine-tuning on ImageNet, 51.3% AP and 45.4% AP for object detection and instance segmentation on COCO, which outperforms the vanilla MAE by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.5%, respectively.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

Existing autoregressive (AR) image generative models use a token-by-token generation schema. That is, they predict a per-token probability distribution and sample the next token from that distribution. The main challenge is how to model the complex distribution of high-dimensional tokens. Previous methods either are too simplistic to fit the distribution or result in slow generation speed. Instead of fitting the distribution of the whole tokens, we explore using a AR model to generate each token in a feature-by-feature way, i.e., taking the generated features as input and generating the next feature. Based on that, we propose ARINAR (AR-in-AR), a bi-level AR model. The outer AR layer take previous tokens as input, predicts a condition vector z for the next token. The inner layer, conditional on z, generates features of the next token autoregressively. In this way, the inner layer only needs to model the distribution of a single feature, for example, using a simple Gaussian Mixture Model. On the ImageNet 256x256 image generation task, ARINAR-B with 213M parameters achieves an FID of 2.75, which is comparable to the state-of-the-art MAR-B model (FID=2.31), while five times faster than the latter.

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. We show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

Autoregressive (AR) models have emerged as powerful tools for image generation by modeling images as sequences of discrete tokens. While Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) has been adopted to improve conditional generation, its application in AR models faces two key issues: guidance diminishing, where the conditional-unconditional gap quickly vanishes as decoding progresses, and over-guidance, where strong conditions distort visual coherence. To address these challenges, we propose SoftCFG, an uncertainty-guided inference method that distributes adaptive perturbations across all tokens in the sequence. The key idea behind SoftCFG is to let each generated token contribute certainty-weighted guidance, ensuring that the signal persists across steps while resolving conflicts between text guidance and visual context. To further stabilize long-sequence generation, we introduce Step Normalization, which bounds cumulative perturbations of SoftCFG. Our method is training-free, model-agnostic, and seamlessly integrates with existing AR pipelines. Experiments show that SoftCFG significantly improves image quality over standard CFG and achieves state-of-the-art FID on ImageNet 256*256 among autoregressive models.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

This paper presents Randomized AutoRegressive modeling (RAR) for visual generation, which sets a new state-of-the-art performance on the image generation task while maintaining full compatibility with language modeling frameworks. The proposed RAR is simple: during a standard autoregressive training process with a next-token prediction objective, the input sequence-typically ordered in raster form-is randomly permuted into different factorization orders with a probability r, where r starts at 1 and linearly decays to 0 over the course of training. This annealing training strategy enables the model to learn to maximize the expected likelihood over all factorization orders and thus effectively improve the model's capability of modeling bidirectional contexts. Importantly, RAR preserves the integrity of the autoregressive modeling framework, ensuring full compatibility with language modeling while significantly improving performance in image generation. On the ImageNet-256 benchmark, RAR achieves an FID score of 1.48, not only surpassing prior state-of-the-art autoregressive image generators but also outperforming leading diffusion-based and masked transformer-based methods. Code and models will be made available at https://github.com/bytedance/1d-tokenizer

The two dominant approaches to neural text generation are fully autoregressive models, using serial beam search decoding, and non-autoregressive models, using parallel decoding with no output dependencies. This work proposes an autoregressive model with sub-linear parallel time generation. Noting that conditional random fields with bounded context can be decoded in parallel, we propose an efficient cascaded decoding approach for generating high-quality output. To parameterize this cascade, we introduce a Markov transformer, a variant of the popular fully autoregressive model that allows us to simultaneously decode with specific autoregressive context cutoffs. This approach requires only a small modification from standard autoregressive training, while showing competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Autoregressive (AR) models have long dominated the landscape of large language models, driving progress across a wide range of tasks. Recently, diffusion-based language models have emerged as a promising alternative, though their advantages over AR models remain underexplored. In this paper, we systematically study masked diffusion models in data-constrained settings-where training involves repeated passes over limited data-and find that they significantly outperform AR models when compute is abundant but data is scarce. Diffusion models make better use of repeated data, achieving lower validation loss and superior downstream performance. We interpret this advantage as implicit data augmentation: masked diffusion exposes the model to a diverse distribution of token orderings and prediction tasks, unlike AR's fixed left-to-right factorization. We find new scaling laws for diffusion models and derive a closed-form expression for the critical compute threshold at which diffusion begins to outperform AR. These results suggest that when data, not compute, is the bottleneck, diffusion models offer a compelling alternative to the standard AR paradigm. Our code is available at: https://diffusion-scaling.github.io.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved unified and strong performance across both visual understanding and image generation tasks. However, removing undesired concepts from AR models while maintaining overall generation quality remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose Erasure Autoregressive Model (EAR), a fine-tuning method for effective and utility-preserving concept erasure in AR models. Specifically, we introduce Windowed Gradient Accumulation (WGA) strategy to align patch-level decoding with erasure objectives, and Thresholded Loss Masking (TLM) strategy to protect content unrelated to the target concept during fine-tuning. Furthermore, we propose a novel benchmark, Erase Concept Generator and Visual Filter (ECGVF), aim at provide a more rigorous and comprehensive foundation for evaluating concept erasure in AR models. Specifically, we first employ structured templates across diverse large language models (LLMs) to pre-generate a large-scale corpus of target-replacement concept prompt pairs. Subsequently, we generate images from these prompts and subject them to rigorous filtering via a visual classifier to ensure concept fidelity and alignment. Extensive experimental results conducted on the ECGVF benchmark with the AR model Janus-Pro demonstrate that EAR achieves marked improvements in both erasure effectiveness and model utility preservation. Code is available at: https://github.com/immc-lab/ear/

Autoregressive (AR) Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant success across numerous tasks. However, the AR modeling paradigm presents certain limitations; for instance, contemporary autoregressive LLMs are trained to generate one token at a time, which can result in noticeable latency. Recent advances have indicated that search and repeated sampling can enhance performance in various applications, such as theorem proving, code generation, and alignment, by utilizing greater computational resources during inference. In this study, we demonstrate that diffusion language models are capable of generating at least 32 tokens simultaneously, while exceeding the performance of AR models in text quality and on the LAMBADA natural language understanding benchmark. This outcome is achieved through a novel distillation method for discrete diffusion models, which reduces the number of inference steps by a factor of 32-64. Practically, our models, even without caching, can generate tokens at a rate that is up to 8 times faster than AR models employing KV caching, and we anticipate further improvements with the inclusion of caching. Moreover, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for diffusion language models with up to 860M parameters.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

This report presents PixelBytes, an approach for unified multimodal representation learning. Drawing inspiration from sequence models like Image Transformers, PixelCNN, and Mamba-Bytes, we explore integrating text, audio, action-state, and pixelated images (sprites) into a cohesive representation. We conducted experiments on a PixelBytes Pokemon dataset and an Optimal-Control dataset. Our investigation covered various model architectures, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), State Space Models (SSMs), and Attention-based models, with a focus on bidirectional processing and our PxBy embedding technique. We evaluated models based on data reduction strategies and autoregressive learning, specifically examining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in predictive and autoregressive modes. Our results indicate that autoregressive models perform better than predictive models in this context. Additionally, we found that diffusion models can be applied to control problems and parallelized generation. PixelBytes aims to contribute to the development of foundation models for multimodal data processing and generation. The project's code, models, and datasets are available online.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

In autoregressive (AR) image generation, models based on the 'next-token prediction' paradigm of LLMs have shown comparable performance to diffusion models by reducing inductive biases. However, directly applying LLMs to complex image generation can struggle with reconstructing the image's structure and details, impacting the generation's accuracy and stability. Additionally, the 'next-token prediction' paradigm in the AR model does not align with the contextual scanning and logical reasoning processes involved in human visual perception, limiting effective image generation. Prompt engineering, as a key technique for guiding LLMs, leverages specifically designed prompts to improve model performance on complex natural language processing (NLP) tasks, enhancing accuracy and stability of generation while maintaining contextual coherence and logical consistency, similar to human reasoning. Inspired by prompt engineering from the field of NLP, we propose Vision Full-view prompt (VF prompt) to enhance autoregressive image generation. Specifically, we design specialized image-related VF prompts for AR image generation to simulate the process of human image creation. This enhances contextual logic ability by allowing the model to first perceive overall distribution information before generating the image, and improve generation stability by increasing the inference steps. Compared to the AR method without VF prompts, our method shows outstanding performance and achieves an approximate improvement of 20%.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models have demonstrated their potential to rival diffusion models in image synthesis. However, for complex spatially-conditioned generation, current AR approaches rely on fine-tuning the pre-trained model, leading to significant training costs. In this paper, we propose the Efficient Control Model (ECM), a plug-and-play framework featuring a lightweight control module that introduces control signals via a distributed architecture. This architecture consists of context-aware attention layers that refine conditional features using real-time generated tokens, and a shared gated feed-forward network (FFN) designed to maximize the utilization of its limited capacity and ensure coherent control feature learning. Furthermore, recognizing the critical role of early-stage generation in determining semantic structure, we introduce an early-centric sampling strategy that prioritizes learning early control sequences. This approach reduces computational cost by lowering the number of training tokens per iteration, while a complementary temperature scheduling during inference compensates for the resulting insufficient training of late-stage tokens. Extensive experiments on scale-based AR models validate that our method achieves high-fidelity and diverse control over image generation, surpassing existing baselines while significantly improving both training and inference efficiency.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

Autoregressive decoding is the only part of sequence-to-sequence models that prevents them from massive parallelization at inference time. Non-autoregressive models enable the decoder to generate all output symbols independently in parallel. We present a novel non-autoregressive architecture based on connectionist temporal classification and evaluate it on the task of neural machine translation. Unlike other non-autoregressive methods which operate in several steps, our model can be trained end-to-end. We conduct experiments on the WMT English-Romanian and English-German datasets. Our models achieve a significant speedup over the autoregressive models, keeping the translation quality comparable to other non-autoregressive models.

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in text and image generation but suffer from slow generation due to the token-by-token process. We ask an ambitious question: can a pre-trained AR model be adapted to generate outputs in just one or two steps? If successful, this would significantly advance the development and deployment of AR models. We notice that existing works that try to speed up AR generation by generating multiple tokens at once fundamentally cannot capture the output distribution due to the conditional dependencies between tokens, limiting their effectiveness for few-step generation. To address this, we propose Distilled Decoding (DD), which uses flow matching to create a deterministic mapping from Gaussian distribution to the output distribution of the pre-trained AR model. We then train a network to distill this mapping, enabling few-step generation. DD doesn't need the training data of the original AR model, making it more practical.We evaluate DD on state-of-the-art image AR models and present promising results on ImageNet-256. For VAR, which requires 10-step generation, DD enables one-step generation (6.3times speed-up), with an acceptable increase in FID from 4.19 to 9.96. For LlamaGen, DD reduces generation from 256 steps to 1, achieving an 217.8times speed-up with a comparable FID increase from 4.11 to 11.35. In both cases, baseline methods completely fail with FID>100. DD also excels on text-to-image generation, reducing the generation from 256 steps to 2 for LlamaGen with minimal FID increase from 25.70 to 28.95. As the first work to demonstrate the possibility of one-step generation for image AR models, DD challenges the prevailing notion that AR models are inherently slow, and opens up new opportunities for efficient AR generation. The project website is at https://imagination-research.github.io/distilled-decoding.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of high-quality visual representations in image generation and have highlighted the limitations of generative models in image understanding. As a generative paradigm originally designed for natural language, autoregressive models face similar challenges. In this work, we present the first systematic investigation into the mechanisms of applying the next-token prediction paradigm to the visual domain. We identify three key properties that hinder the learning of high-level visual semantics: local and conditional dependence, inter-step semantic inconsistency, and spatial invariance deficiency. We show that these issues can be effectively addressed by introducing self-supervised objectives during training, leading to a novel training framework, Self-guided Training for AutoRegressive models (ST-AR). Without relying on pre-trained representation models, ST-AR significantly enhances the image understanding ability of autoregressive models and leads to improved generation quality. Specifically, ST-AR brings approximately 42% FID improvement for LlamaGen-L and 49% FID improvement for LlamaGen-XL, while maintaining the same sampling strategy.

Autoregressive (AR) models, common in sequence generation, are limited in many biological tasks such as de novo peptide sequencing and protein modeling by their unidirectional nature, failing to capture crucial global bidirectional token dependencies. Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models offer holistic, bidirectional representations but face challenges with generative coherence and scalability. To transcend this, we propose a hybrid framework enhancing AR generation by dynamically integrating rich contextual information from non-autoregressive mechanisms. Our approach couples a shared input encoder with two decoders: a non-autoregressive one learning latent bidirectional biological features, and an AR decoder synthesizing the biological sequence by leveraging these bidirectional features. A novel cross-decoder attention module enables the AR decoder to iteratively query and integrate these bidirectional features, enriching its predictions. This synergy is cultivated via a tailored training strategy with importance annealing for balanced objectives and cross-decoder gradient blocking for stable, focused learning. Evaluations on a demanding nine-species benchmark of de novo peptide sequencing show that our model substantially surpasses AR and NAR baselines. It uniquely harmonizes AR stability with NAR contextual awareness, delivering robust, superior performance on diverse downstream data. This research advances biological sequence modeling techniques and contributes a novel architectural paradigm for augmenting AR models with enhanced bidirectional understanding for complex sequence generation. Code is available at https://github.com/BEAM-Labs/denovo.

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

Much recent effort has been invested in non-autoregressive neural machine translation, which appears to be an efficient alternative to state-of-the-art autoregressive machine translation on modern GPUs. In contrast to the latter, where generation is sequential, the former allows generation to be parallelized across target token positions. Some of the latest non-autoregressive models have achieved impressive translation quality-speed tradeoffs compared to autoregressive baselines. In this work, we reexamine this tradeoff and argue that autoregressive baselines can be substantially sped up without loss in accuracy. Specifically, we study autoregressive models with encoders and decoders of varied depths. Our extensive experiments show that given a sufficiently deep encoder, a single-layer autoregressive decoder can substantially outperform strong non-autoregressive models with comparable inference speed. We show that the speed disadvantage for autoregressive baselines compared to non-autoregressive methods has been overestimated in three aspects: suboptimal layer allocation, insufficient speed measurement, and lack of knowledge distillation. Our results establish a new protocol for future research toward fast, accurate machine translation. Our code is available at https://github.com/jungokasai/deep-shallow.

The emergence of visual autoregressive (AR) models has revolutionized image generation while presenting new challenges for synthetic image detection. Unlike previous GAN or diffusion-based methods, AR models generate images through discrete token prediction, exhibiting both marked improvements in image synthesis quality and unique characteristics in their vector-quantized representations. In this paper, we propose to leverage Discrete Distribution Discrepancy-aware Quantization Error (D^3QE) for autoregressive-generated image detection that exploits the distinctive patterns and the frequency distribution bias of the codebook existing in real and fake images. We introduce a discrete distribution discrepancy-aware transformer that integrates dynamic codebook frequency statistics into its attention mechanism, fusing semantic features and quantization error latent. To evaluate our method, we construct a comprehensive dataset termed ARForensics covering 7 mainstream visual AR models. Experiments demonstrate superior detection accuracy and strong generalization of D^3QE across different AR models, with robustness to real-world perturbations. Code is available at https://github.com/Zhangyr2022/D3QE{https://github.com/Zhangyr2022/D3QE}.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

We introduce AiM, an autoregressive (AR) image generative model based on Mamba architecture. AiM employs Mamba, a novel state-space model characterized by its exceptional performance for long-sequence modeling with linear time complexity, to supplant the commonly utilized Transformers in AR image generation models, aiming to achieve both superior generation quality and enhanced inference speed. Unlike existing methods that adapt Mamba to handle two-dimensional signals via multi-directional scan, AiM directly utilizes the next-token prediction paradigm for autoregressive image generation. This approach circumvents the need for extensive modifications to enable Mamba to learn 2D spatial representations. By implementing straightforward yet strategically targeted modifications for visual generative tasks, we preserve Mamba's core structure, fully exploiting its efficient long-sequence modeling capabilities and scalability. We provide AiM models in various scales, with parameter counts ranging from 148M to 1.3B. On the ImageNet1K 256*256 benchmark, our best AiM model achieves a FID of 2.21, surpassing all existing AR models of comparable parameter counts and demonstrating significant competitiveness against diffusion models, with 2 to 10 times faster inference speed. Code is available at https://github.com/hp-l33/AiM

Autoregressive Large Language Models have transformed the landscape of Natural Language Processing. Pre-train and prompt paradigm has replaced the conventional approach of pre-training and fine-tuning for many downstream NLP tasks. This shift has been possible largely due to LLMs and innovative prompting techniques. LLMs have shown great promise for a variety of downstream tasks owing to their vast parameters and huge datasets that they are pre-trained on. However, in order to fully realize their potential, their outputs must be guided towards the desired outcomes. Prompting, in which a specific input or instruction is provided to guide the LLMs toward the intended output, has become a tool for achieving this goal. In this paper, we discuss the various prompting techniques that have been applied to fully harness the power of LLMs. We present a taxonomy of existing literature on prompting techniques and provide a concise survey based on this taxonomy. Further, we identify some open problems in the realm of prompting in autoregressive LLMs which could serve as a direction for future research.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful approach for visual generation but suffer from slow inference speed due to their sequential token-by-token prediction process. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach for parallelized autoregressive visual generation that improves generation efficiency while preserving the advantages of autoregressive modeling. Our key insight is that parallel generation depends on visual token dependencies-tokens with weak dependencies can be generated in parallel, while strongly dependent adjacent tokens are difficult to generate together, as their independent sampling may lead to inconsistencies. Based on this observation, we develop a parallel generation strategy that generates distant tokens with weak dependencies in parallel while maintaining sequential generation for strongly dependent local tokens. Our approach can be seamlessly integrated into standard autoregressive models without modifying the architecture or tokenizer. Experiments on ImageNet and UCF-101 demonstrate that our method achieves a 3.6x speedup with comparable quality and up to 9.5x speedup with minimal quality degradation across both image and video generation tasks. We hope this work will inspire future research in efficient visual generation and unified autoregressive modeling. Project page: https://epiphqny.github.io/PAR-project.

Autoregressive (AR) transformers have emerged as a powerful paradigm for visual generation, largely due to their scalability, computational efficiency and unified architecture with language and vision. Among them, next scale prediction Visual Autoregressive Generation (VAR) has recently demonstrated remarkable performance, even surpassing diffusion-based models. In this work, we revisit VAR and uncover a theoretical insight: when equipped with a Markovian attention mask, VAR is mathematically equivalent to a discrete diffusion. We term this reinterpretation as Scalable Visual Refinement with Discrete Diffusion (SRDD), establishing a principled bridge between AR transformers and diffusion models. Leveraging this new perspective, we show how one can directly import the advantages of diffusion such as iterative refinement and reduce architectural inefficiencies into VAR, yielding faster convergence, lower inference cost, and improved zero-shot reconstruction. Across multiple datasets, we show that the diffusion based perspective of VAR leads to consistent gains in efficiency and generation.

Motion diffusion models and Reinforcement Learning (RL) based control for physics-based simulations have complementary strengths for human motion generation. The former is capable of generating a wide variety of motions, adhering to intuitive control such as text, while the latter offers physically plausible motion and direct interaction with the environment. In this work, we present a method that combines their respective strengths. CLoSD is a text-driven RL physics-based controller, guided by diffusion generation for various tasks. Our key insight is that motion diffusion can serve as an on-the-fly universal planner for a robust RL controller. To this end, CLoSD maintains a closed-loop interaction between two modules -- a Diffusion Planner (DiP), and a tracking controller. DiP is a fast-responding autoregressive diffusion model, controlled by textual prompts and target locations, and the controller is a simple and robust motion imitator that continuously receives motion plans from DiP and provides feedback from the environment. CLoSD is capable of seamlessly performing a sequence of different tasks, including navigation to a goal location, striking an object with a hand or foot as specified in a text prompt, sitting down, and getting up. https://guytevet.github.io/CLoSD-page/

Zero-shot capability has been considered as a new revolution of deep learning, letting machines work on tasks without curated training data. As a good start and the only existing outcome of zero-shot image captioning (IC), ZeroCap abandons supervised training and sequentially searches every word in the caption using the knowledge of large-scale pretrained models. Though effective, its autoregressive generation and gradient-directed searching mechanism limit the diversity of captions and inference speed, respectively. Moreover, ZeroCap does not consider the controllability issue of zero-shot IC. To move forward, we propose a framework for Controllable Zero-shot IC, named ConZIC. The core of ConZIC is a novel sampling-based non-autoregressive language model named GibbsBERT, which can generate and continuously polish every word. Extensive quantitative and qualitative results demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed ConZIC for both zero-shot IC and controllable zero-shot IC. Especially, ConZIC achieves about 5x faster generation speed than ZeroCap, and about 1.5x higher diversity scores, with accurate generation given different control signals.

Recent progress in controllable image generation and editing is largely driven by diffusion-based methods. Although diffusion models perform exceptionally well in specific tasks with tailored designs, establishing a unified model is still challenging. In contrast, autoregressive models inherently feature a unified tokenized representation, which simplifies the creation of a single foundational model for various tasks. In this work, we propose EditAR, a single unified autoregressive framework for a variety of conditional image generation tasks, e.g., image editing, depth-to-image, edge-to-image, segmentation-to-image. The model takes both images and instructions as inputs, and predicts the edited images tokens in a vanilla next-token paradigm. To enhance the text-to-image alignment, we further propose to distill the knowledge from foundation models into the autoregressive modeling process. We evaluate its effectiveness across diverse tasks on established benchmarks, showing competitive performance to various state-of-the-art task-specific methods. Project page: https://jitengmu.github.io/EditAR/

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) has emerged as a promising approach in image generation, offering competitive potential and performance comparable to diffusion-based models. However, current AR-based visual generation models require substantial computational resources, limiting their applicability on resource-constrained devices. To address this issue, we conducted analysis and identified significant redundancy in three dimensions of the VAR model: (1) the attention map, (2) the attention outputs when using classifier free guidance, and (3) the data precision. Correspondingly, we proposed efficient attention mechanism and low-bit quantization method to enhance the efficiency of VAR models while maintaining performance. With negligible performance lost (less than 0.056 FID increase), we could achieve 85.2% reduction in attention computation, 50% reduction in overall memory and 1.5x latency reduction. To ensure deployment feasibility, we developed efficient training-free compression techniques and analyze the deployment feasibility and efficiency gain of each technique.

Scene text recognition (STR) methods have struggled to attain high accuracy and fast inference speed. Autoregressive (AR)-based models implement the recognition in a character-by-character manner, showing superiority in accuracy but with slow inference speed. Alternatively, parallel decoding (PD)-based models infer all characters in a single decoding pass, offering faster inference speed but generally worse accuracy. We first present an empirical study of AR decoding in STR, and discover that the AR decoder not only models linguistic context, but also provides guidance on visual context perception. Consequently, we propose Context Perception Parallel Decoder (CPPD) to predict the character sequence in a PD pass. CPPD devises a character counting module to infer the occurrence count of each character, and a character ordering module to deduce the content-free reading order and placeholders. Meanwhile, the character prediction task associates the placeholders with characters. They together build a comprehensive recognition context. We construct a series of CPPD models and also plug the proposed modules into existing STR decoders. Experiments on both English and Chinese benchmarks demonstrate that the CPPD models achieve highly competitive accuracy while running approximately 8x faster than their AR-based counterparts. Moreover, the plugged models achieve significant accuracy improvements. Code is at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleOCR/blob/dygraph/doc/doc_en/algorithm_rec_cppd_en.md{this https URL}.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

Autoregressive (AR) models remain the standard for natural language generation but still suffer from high latency due to strictly sequential decoding. Recent diffusion-inspired approaches, such as LlaDA and Dream, mitigate this by generating in parallel, yet they suffer from two core limitations: information loss, as predictive distributions for non-finalized tokens are discarded at each step, and premature commitment, where local decisions are made without sufficient global coordination. We introduce Latent Refinement Decoding (LRD), a two-stage framework with Latent Refinement and a Predictive Feedback Loop. The first stage maintains masked positions as distributional mixtures of predicted tokens and the mask embedding, allowing the model to establish more globally consistent beliefs. The second stage progressively finalizes confident tokens while retaining uncertain ones for iterative feedback. KL-divergence dynamics provide a principled and reliable criterion for convergence and early stopping. Experiments across coding (HumanEval +6.3, MBPP +2.6) and reasoning (GSM8K +2.9, MATH500 +3.8) show that LRD improves accuracy while delivering speedups of up to 10.6x, making it a strong and versatile alternative for parallel sequence generation.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

Real-world data is high-dimensional: a book, image, or musical performance can easily contain hundreds of thousands of elements even after compression. However, the most commonly used autoregressive models, Transformers, are prohibitively expensive to scale to the number of inputs and layers needed to capture this long-range structure. We develop Perceiver AR, an autoregressive, modality-agnostic architecture which uses cross-attention to map long-range inputs to a small number of latents while also maintaining end-to-end causal masking. Perceiver AR can directly attend to over a hundred thousand tokens, enabling practical long-context density estimation without the need for hand-crafted sparsity patterns or memory mechanisms. When trained on images or music, Perceiver AR generates outputs with clear long-term coherence and structure. Our architecture also obtains state-of-the-art likelihood on long-sequence benchmarks, including 64 x 64 ImageNet images and PG-19 books.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

We introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models. Instead of declaring a learning system's dynamics by implicit nonlinearities, we construct networks of linear first-order dynamical systems modulated via nonlinear interlinked gates. The resulting models represent dynamical systems with varying (i.e., liquid) time-constants coupled to their hidden state, with outputs being computed by numerical differential equation solvers. These neural networks exhibit stable and bounded behavior, yield superior expressivity within the family of neural ordinary differential equations, and give rise to improved performance on time-series prediction tasks. To demonstrate these properties, we first take a theoretical approach to find bounds over their dynamics and compute their expressive power by the trajectory length measure in latent trajectory space. We then conduct a series of time-series prediction experiments to manifest the approximation capability of Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) compared to classical and modern RNNs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/raminmh/liquid_time_constant_networks

Sequential dependencies present a fundamental bottleneck in deploying large-scale autoregressive models, particularly for real-time applications. While traditional optimization approaches like pruning and quantization often compromise model quality, recent advances in generation-refinement frameworks demonstrate that this trade-off can be significantly mitigated. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of generation-refinement frameworks, analyzing methods across autoregressive sequence tasks. We categorize methods based on their generation strategies (from simple n-gram prediction to sophisticated draft models) and refinement mechanisms (including single-pass verification and iterative approaches). Through systematic analysis of both algorithmic innovations and system-level implementations, we examine deployment strategies across computing environments and explore applications spanning text, images, and speech generation. This systematic examination of both theoretical frameworks and practical implementations provides a foundation for future research in efficient autoregressive decoding.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

Autoregressive (AR) models, long dominant in language generation, are increasingly applied to image synthesis but are often considered less competitive than Diffusion-based models. A primary limitation is the substantial number of image tokens required for AR models, which constrains both training and inference efficiency, as well as image resolution. To address this, we present Token-Shuffle, a novel yet simple method that reduces the number of image tokens in Transformer. Our key insight is the dimensional redundancy of visual vocabularies in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), where low-dimensional visual codes from visual encoder are directly mapped to high-dimensional language vocabularies. Leveraging this, we consider two key operations: token-shuffle, which merges spatially local tokens along channel dimension to decrease the input token number, and token-unshuffle, which untangles the inferred tokens after Transformer blocks to restore the spatial arrangement for output. Jointly training with textual prompts, our strategy requires no additional pretrained text-encoder and enables MLLMs to support extremely high-resolution image synthesis in a unified next-token prediction way while maintaining efficient training and inference. For the first time, we push the boundary of AR text-to-image generation to a resolution of 2048x2048 with gratifying generation performance. In GenAI-benchmark, our 2.7B model achieves 0.77 overall score on hard prompts, outperforming AR models LlamaGen by 0.18 and diffusion models LDM by 0.15. Exhaustive large-scale human evaluations also demonstrate our prominent image generation ability in terms of text-alignment, visual flaw, and visual appearance. We hope that Token-Shuffle can serve as a foundational design for efficient high-resolution image generation within MLLMs.

Recent advancements in deep learning models for time series forecasting have been significant. These models often leverage fundamental time series properties such as seasonality and non-stationarity, which may suggest an intrinsic link between model performance and data properties. However, existing benchmark datasets fail to offer diverse and well-defined temporal patterns, restricting the systematic evaluation of such connections. Additionally, there is no effective model recommendation approach, leading to high time and cost expenditures when testing different architectures across different downstream applications. For those reasons, we propose ARIES, a framework for assessing relation between time series properties and modeling strategies, and for recommending deep forcasting models for realistic time series. First, we construct a synthetic dataset with multiple distinct patterns, and design a comprehensive system to compute the properties of time series. Next, we conduct an extensive benchmarking of over 50 forecasting models, and establish the relationship between time series properties and modeling strategies. Our experimental results reveal a clear correlation. Based on these findings, we propose the first deep forecasting model recommender, capable of providing interpretable suggestions for real-world time series. In summary, ARIES is the first study to establish the relations between the properties of time series data and modeling strategies, while also implementing a model recommendation system. The code is available at: https://github.com/blisky-li/ARIES.

Autoregressive models for text sometimes generate repetitive and low-quality output because errors accumulate during the steps of generation. This issue is often attributed to exposure bias - the difference between how a model is trained, and how it is used during inference. Denoising diffusion models provide an alternative approach in which a model can revisit and revise its output. However, they can be computationally expensive and prior efforts on text have led to models that produce less fluent output compared to autoregressive models, especially for longer text and paragraphs. In this paper, we propose PLANNER, a model that combines latent semantic diffusion with autoregressive generation, to generate fluent text while exercising global control over paragraphs. The model achieves this by combining an autoregressive "decoding" module with a "planning" module that uses latent diffusion to generate semantic paragraph embeddings in a coarse-to-fine manner. The proposed method is evaluated on various conditional generation tasks, and results on semantic generation, text completion and summarization show its effectiveness in generating high-quality long-form text in an efficient manner.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Existing vector quantization (VQ) based autoregressive models follow a two-stage generation paradigm that first learns a codebook to encode images as discrete codes, and then completes generation based on the learned codebook. However, they encode fixed-size image regions into fixed-length codes and ignore their naturally different information densities, which results in insufficiency in important regions and redundancy in unimportant ones, and finally degrades the generation quality and speed. Moreover, the fixed-length coding leads to an unnatural raster-scan autoregressive generation. To address the problem, we propose a novel two-stage framework: (1) Dynamic-Quantization VAE (DQ-VAE) which encodes image regions into variable-length codes based on their information densities for an accurate and compact code representation. (2) DQ-Transformer which thereby generates images autoregressively from coarse-grained (smooth regions with fewer codes) to fine-grained (details regions with more codes) by modeling the position and content of codes in each granularity alternately, through a novel stacked-transformer architecture and shared-content, non-shared position input layers designs. Comprehensive experiments on various generation tasks validate our superiorities in both effectiveness and efficiency. Code will be released at https://github.com/CrossmodalGroup/DynamicVectorQuantization.

Autoregressive models excel in modeling sequential dependencies by enforcing causal constraints, yet they struggle to capture complex bidirectional patterns due to their unidirectional nature. In contrast, mask-based models leverage bidirectional context, enabling richer dependency modeling. However, they often assume token independence during prediction, which undermines the modeling of sequential dependencies. Additionally, the corruption of sequences through masking or absorption can introduce unnatural distortions, complicating the learning process. To address these issues, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Diffusion (BAD), a novel approach that unifies the strengths of autoregressive and mask-based generative models. BAD utilizes a permutation-based corruption technique that preserves the natural sequence structure while enforcing causal dependencies through randomized ordering, enabling the effective capture of both sequential and bidirectional relationships. Comprehensive experiments show that BAD outperforms autoregressive and mask-based models in text-to-motion generation, suggesting a novel pre-training strategy for sequence modeling. The codebase for BAD is available on https://github.com/RohollahHS/BAD.

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.

AutoRegressive (AR) models have made notable progress in image generation, with Masked AutoRegressive (MAR) models gaining attention for their efficient parallel decoding. However, MAR models have traditionally underperformed when compared to standard AR models. This study refines the MAR architecture to improve image generation quality. We begin by evaluating various image tokenizers to identify the most effective one. Subsequently, we introduce an improved Bidirectional LLaMA architecture by replacing causal attention with bidirectional attention and incorporating 2D RoPE, which together form our advanced model, MaskGIL. Scaled from 111M to 1.4B parameters, MaskGIL achieves a FID score of 3.71, matching state-of-the-art AR models in the ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, while requiring only 8 inference steps compared to the 256 steps of AR models. Furthermore, we develop a text-driven MaskGIL model with 775M parameters for generating images from text at various resolutions. Beyond image generation, MaskGIL extends to accelerate AR-based generation and enable real-time speech-to-image conversion. Our codes and models are available at https://github.com/synbol/MaskGIL.

Visual autoregressive models (VAR) have recently emerged as a promising class of generative models, achieving performance comparable to diffusion models in text-to-image generation tasks. While conditional generation has been widely explored, the ability to perform prompt-guided image editing without additional training is equally critical, as it supports numerous practical real-world applications. This paper investigates the text-to-image editing capabilities of VAR by introducing Visual AutoRegressive Inverse Noise (VARIN), the first noise inversion-based editing technique designed explicitly for VAR models. VARIN leverages a novel pseudo-inverse function for argmax sampling, named Location-aware Argmax Inversion (LAI), to generate inverse Gumbel noises. These inverse noises enable precise reconstruction of the source image and facilitate targeted, controllable edits aligned with textual prompts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VARIN effectively modifies source images according to specified prompts while significantly preserving the original background and structural details, thus validating its efficacy as a practical editing approach.

We present Autoregressive Representation Alignment (ARRA), a new training framework that unlocks global-coherent text-to-image generation in autoregressive LLMs without architectural changes. Unlike prior work that requires complex architectural redesigns, ARRA aligns LLM hidden states with visual representations from external visual foundational models via a global visual alignment loss and a hybrid token, <HYBNEXT>. This token enforces dual constraints: local next-token prediction and global semantic distillation, enabling LLMs to implicitly learn spatial and contextual coherence while retaining their original autoregressive paradigm. Extensive experiments validate ARRA's plug-and-play versatility. When training from text-generation-only LLMs or random initialization, ARRA reduces FID by 25.5% (MIMIC-CXR), 8.8% (DeepEyeNet), and 7.5% (ImageNet) for advanced autoregressive LLMs like Chameleon and LlamaGen, all without framework modifications. For domain adaption, ARRA aligns general-purpose LLMs with specialized models (e.g., BioMedCLIP), achieving an 18.6% FID reduction over direct fine-tuning on medical imaging (MIMIC-CXR). By demonstrating that training objective redesign -- not just architectural innovation -- can resolve cross-modal global coherence challenges, ARRA offers a complementary paradigm for advancing autoregressive models. Code and models will be released to advance autoregressive image generation.

Designing video prediction models that account for the inherent uncertainty of the future is challenging. Most works in the literature are based on stochastic image-autoregressive recurrent networks, which raises several performance and applicability issues. An alternative is to use fully latent temporal models which untie frame synthesis and temporal dynamics. However, no such model for stochastic video prediction has been proposed in the literature yet, due to design and training difficulties. In this paper, we overcome these difficulties by introducing a novel stochastic temporal model whose dynamics are governed in a latent space by a residual update rule. This first-order scheme is motivated by discretization schemes of differential equations. It naturally models video dynamics as it allows our simpler, more interpretable, latent model to outperform prior state-of-the-art methods on challenging datasets.

Knowledge-intensive language tasks require NLP systems to both provide the correct answer and retrieve supporting evidence for it in a given corpus. Autoregressive language models are emerging as the de-facto standard for generating answers, with newer and more powerful systems emerging at an astonishing pace. In this paper we argue that all this (and future) progress can be directly applied to the retrieval problem with minimal intervention to the models' architecture. Previous work has explored ways to partition the search space into hierarchical structures and retrieve documents by autoregressively generating their unique identifier. In this work we propose an alternative that doesn't force any structure in the search space: using all ngrams in a passage as its possible identifiers. This setup allows us to use an autoregressive model to generate and score distinctive ngrams, that are then mapped to full passages through an efficient data structure. Empirically, we show this not only outperforms prior autoregressive approaches but also leads to an average improvement of at least 10 points over more established retrieval solutions for passage-level retrieval on the KILT benchmark, establishing new state-of-the-art downstream performance on some datasets, while using a considerably lighter memory footprint than competing systems. Code and pre-trained models at https://github.com/facebookresearch/SEAL.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MoI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MoI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhD-level QA tasks, MoI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen-32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.

This paper presents Diffusion via Autoregressive models (D-AR), a new paradigm recasting the image diffusion process as a vanilla autoregressive procedure in the standard next-token-prediction fashion. We start by designing the tokenizer that converts images into sequences of discrete tokens, where tokens in different positions can be decoded into different diffusion denoising steps in the pixel space. Thanks to the diffusion properties, these tokens naturally follow a coarse-to-fine order, which directly lends itself to autoregressive modeling. Therefore, we apply standard next-token prediction on these tokens, without modifying any underlying designs (either causal masks or training/inference strategies), and such sequential autoregressive token generation directly mirrors the diffusion procedure in image space. That is, once the autoregressive model generates an increment of tokens, we can directly decode these tokens into the corresponding diffusion denoising step in the streaming manner. Our pipeline naturally reveals several intriguing properties, for example, it supports consistent previews when generating only a subset of tokens and enables zero-shot layout-controlled synthesis. On the standard ImageNet benchmark, our method achieves 2.09 FID using a 775M Llama backbone with 256 discrete tokens. We hope our work can inspire future research on unified autoregressive architectures of visual synthesis, especially with large language models. Code and models will be available at https://github.com/showlab/D-AR

We introduce Dream 7B, the most powerful open diffusion large language model to date. Unlike autoregressive (AR) models that generate tokens sequentially, Dream 7B employs discrete diffusion modeling to refine sequences in parallel through iterative denoising. Our model consistently outperforms existing diffusion language models on general, mathematical, and coding tasks. Dream 7B demonstrates superior planning abilities and inference flexibility, including arbitrary-order generation, infilling capabilities, and tunable quality-speed trade-offs. These results are achieved through simple yet effective training techniques, including AR-based LLM initialization and context-adaptive token-level noise rescheduling. We release both Dream-Base and Dream-Instruct to facilitate further research in diffusion-based language modeling.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

Attention-based models such as Transformers and recurrent models like state space models (SSMs) have emerged as successful methods for autoregressive sequence modeling. Although both enable parallel training, none enable parallel generation due to their autoregressiveness. We propose the variational SSM (VSSM), a variational autoencoder (VAE) where both the encoder and decoder are SSMs. Since sampling the latent variables and decoding them with the SSM can be parallelized, both training and generation can be conducted in parallel. Moreover, the decoder recurrence allows generation to be resumed without reprocessing the whole sequence. Finally, we propose the autoregressive VSSM that can be conditioned on a partial realization of the sequence, as is common in language generation tasks. Interestingly, the autoregressive VSSM still enables parallel generation. We highlight on toy problems (MNIST, CIFAR) the empirical gains in speed-up and show that it competes with traditional models in terms of generation quality (Transformer, Mamba SSM).

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose TimeDART, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART.

While autoregressive (AR) modeling has recently emerged as a new paradigm in visual generation, its practical adoption is severely constrained by the slow inference speed of per-token generation, which often requires thousands of steps to produce a single sample. To address this challenge, we propose MC-SJD, a training-free, lossless parallel decoding framework designed to accelerate AR visual generation by extending the recently introduced Speculative Jacobi Decoding (SJD). Although SJD shows strong potential for accelerating AR generation, we demonstrate that token instability across iterations significantly reduces the acceptance rate, a limitation that primarily arises from the independent sampling process used during draft token generation. To overcome this, we introduce MC-SJD, an information-theoretic approach based on coupling, which substantially accelerates standard SJD by maximizing the probability of sampling identical draft tokens across consecutive iterations, all while preserving its lossless property. Remarkably, this method requires only a single-line modification to the existing algorithm, yet achieves substantial performance gains, delivering up to a ~4.2x acceleration in image generation and ~13.3x acceleration in video generation compared to standard AR decoding, without any degradation in output quality.

Integrated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models serve as natural counterparts to the well-known integrated GARCH models used for financial returns. However, despite their resemblance, asymptotic theory for ACD is challenging and also not complete, in particular for integrated ACD. Central challenges arise from the facts that (i) integrated ACD processes imply durations with infinite expectation, and (ii) even in the non-integrated case, conventional asymptotic approaches break down due to the randomness in the number of durations within a fixed observation period. Addressing these challenges, we provide here unified asymptotic theory for the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator for ACD models; a unified theory which includes integrated ACD models. Based on the new results, we also provide a novel framework for hypothesis testing in duration models, enabling inference on a key empirical question: whether durations possess a finite or infinite expectation. We apply our results to high-frequency cryptocurrency ETF trading data. Motivated by parameter estimates near the integrated ACD boundary, we assess whether durations between trades in these markets have finite expectation, an assumption often made implicitly in the literature on point process models. Our empirical findings indicate infinite-mean durations for all the five cryptocurrencies examined, with the integrated ACD hypothesis rejected -- against alternatives with tail index less than one -- for four out of the five cryptocurrencies considered.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Vision AutoRegressive model (VAR) was recently introduced as an alternative to Diffusion Models (DMs) in image generation domain. In this work we focus on its adaptations, which aim to fine-tune pre-trained models to perform specific downstream tasks, like medical data generation. While for DMs there exist many techniques, adaptations for VAR remain underexplored. Similarly, differentially private (DP) adaptations-ones that aim to preserve privacy of the adaptation data-have been extensively studied for DMs, while VAR lacks such solutions. In our work, we implement and benchmark many strategies for VAR, and compare them to state-of-the-art DM adaptation strategies. We observe that VAR outperforms DMs for non-DP adaptations, however, the performance of DP suffers, which necessitates further research in private adaptations for VAR. Code is available at https://github.com/sprintml/finetuning_var_dp.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

In this paper, we present NUWA-Infinity, a generative model for infinite visual synthesis, which is defined as the task of generating arbitrarily-sized high-resolution images or long-duration videos. An autoregressive over autoregressive generation mechanism is proposed to deal with this variable-size generation task, where a global patch-level autoregressive model considers the dependencies between patches, and a local token-level autoregressive model considers dependencies between visual tokens within each patch. A Nearby Context Pool (NCP) is introduced to cache-related patches already generated as the context for the current patch being generated, which can significantly save computation costs without sacrificing patch-level dependency modeling. An Arbitrary Direction Controller (ADC) is used to decide suitable generation orders for different visual synthesis tasks and learn order-aware positional embeddings. Compared to DALL-E, Imagen and Parti, NUWA-Infinity can generate high-resolution images with arbitrary sizes and support long-duration video generation additionally. Compared to NUWA, which also covers images and videos, NUWA-Infinity has superior visual synthesis capabilities in terms of resolution and variable-size generation. The GitHub link is https://github.com/microsoft/NUWA. The homepage link is https://nuwa-infinity.microsoft.com.

Autoregressive patch-based image generation has recently shown competitive results in terms of image quality and scalability. It can also be easily integrated and scaled within Vision-Language models. Nevertheless, autoregressive models require a defined order for patch generation. While a natural order based on the dictation of the words makes sense for text generation, there is no inherent generation order that exists for image generation. Traditionally, a raster-scan order (from top-left to bottom-right) guides autoregressive image generation models. In this paper, we argue that this order is suboptimal, as it fails to respect the causality of the image content: for instance, when conditioned on a visual description of a sunset, an autoregressive model may generate clouds before the sun, even though the color of clouds should depend on the color of the sun and not the inverse. In this work, we show that first by training a model to generate patches in any-given-order, we can infer both the content and the location (order) of each patch during generation. Secondly, we use these extracted orders to finetune the any-given-order model to produce better-quality images. Through our experiments, we show on two datasets that this new generation method produces better images than the traditional raster-scan approach, with similar training costs and no extra annotations.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

In many domains, autoregressive models can attain high likelihood on the task of predicting the next observation. However, this maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective does not necessarily match a downstream use-case of autoregressively generating high-quality sequences. The MLE objective weights sequences proportionally to their frequency under the data distribution, with no guidance for the model's behaviour out of distribution (OOD): leading to compounding error during autoregressive generation. In order to address this compounding error problem, we formulate sequence generation as an imitation learning (IL) problem. This allows us to minimize a variety of divergences between the distribution of sequences generated by an autoregressive model and sequences from a dataset, including divergences with weight on OOD generated sequences. The IL framework also allows us to incorporate backtracking by introducing a backspace action into the generation process. This further mitigates the compounding error problem by allowing the model to revert a sampled token if it takes the sequence OOD. Our resulting method, SequenceMatch, can be implemented without adversarial training or major architectural changes. We identify the SequenceMatch-chi^2 divergence as a more suitable training objective for autoregressive models which are used for generation. We show that empirically, SequenceMatch training leads to improvements over MLE on text generation with language models.

Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This limits tractable querying of this knowledge to start-to-end autoregressive sampling. However, many tasks of interest -- including sequence continuation, infilling, and other forms of constrained generation -- involve sampling from intractable posterior distributions. We address this limitation by using amortized Bayesian inference to sample from these intractable posteriors. Such amortization is algorithmically achieved by fine-tuning LLMs via diversity-seeking reinforcement learning algorithms: generative flow networks (GFlowNets). We empirically demonstrate that this distribution-matching paradigm of LLM fine-tuning can serve as an effective alternative to maximum-likelihood training and reward-maximizing policy optimization. As an important application, we interpret chain-of-thought reasoning as a latent variable modeling problem and demonstrate that our approach enables data-efficient adaptation of LLMs to tasks that require multi-step rationalization and tool use.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

We present RigAnything, a novel autoregressive transformer-based model, which makes 3D assets rig-ready by probabilistically generating joints, skeleton topologies, and assigning skinning weights in a template-free manner. Unlike most existing auto-rigging methods, which rely on predefined skeleton template and are limited to specific categories like humanoid, RigAnything approaches the rigging problem in an autoregressive manner, iteratively predicting the next joint based on the global input shape and the previous prediction. While autoregressive models are typically used to generate sequential data, RigAnything extends their application to effectively learn and represent skeletons, which are inherently tree structures. To achieve this, we organize the joints in a breadth-first search (BFS) order, enabling the skeleton to be defined as a sequence of 3D locations and the parent index. Furthermore, our model improves the accuracy of position prediction by leveraging diffusion modeling, ensuring precise and consistent placement of joints within the hierarchy. This formulation allows the autoregressive model to efficiently capture both spatial and hierarchical relationships within the skeleton. Trained end-to-end on both RigNet and Objaverse datasets, RigAnything demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse object types, including humanoids, quadrupeds, marine creatures, insects, and many more, surpassing prior methods in quality, robustness, generalizability, and efficiency. Please check our website for more details: https://www.liuisabella.com/RigAnything.

Recently, autoregressive (AR) image models have demonstrated remarkable generative capabilities, positioning themselves as a compelling alternative to diffusion models. However, their sequential nature leads to long inference times, limiting their practical scalability. In this work, we introduce Grouped Speculative Decoding (GSD), a novel, training-free acceleration method for AR image models. While recent studies have explored Speculative Decoding (SD) as a means to speed up AR image generation, existing approaches either provide only modest acceleration or require additional training. Our in-depth analysis reveals a fundamental difference between language and image tokens: image tokens exhibit inherent redundancy and diversity, meaning multiple tokens can convey valid semantics. However, traditional SD methods are designed to accept only a single most-likely token, which fails to leverage this difference, leading to excessive false-negative rejections. To address this, we propose a new SD strategy that evaluates clusters of visually valid tokens rather than relying on a single target token. Additionally, we observe that static clustering based on embedding distance is ineffective, which motivates our dynamic GSD approach. Extensive experiments show that GSD accelerates AR image models by an average of 3.7x while preserving image quality-all without requiring any additional training. The source code is available at https://github.com/junhyukso/GSD

This work introduces MELA-TTS, a novel joint transformer-diffusion framework for end-to-end text-to-speech synthesis. By autoregressively generating continuous mel-spectrogram frames from linguistic and speaker conditions, our architecture eliminates the need for speech tokenization and multi-stage processing pipelines. To address the inherent difficulties of modeling continuous features, we propose a representation alignment module that aligns output representations of the transformer decoder with semantic embeddings from a pretrained ASR encoder during training. This mechanism not only speeds up training convergence, but also enhances cross-modal coherence between the textual and acoustic domains. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that MELA-TTS achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple evaluation metrics while maintaining robust zero-shot voice cloning capabilities, in both offline and streaming synthesis modes. Our results establish a new benchmark for continuous feature generation approaches in TTS, offering a compelling alternative to discrete-token-based paradigms.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

Deep learning has been actively applied to time series forecasting, leading to a deluge of new methods, belonging to the class of historical-value models. Yet, despite the attractive properties of time-index models, such as being able to model the continuous nature of underlying time series dynamics, little attention has been given to them. Indeed, while naive deep time-index models are far more expressive than the manually predefined function representations of classical time-index models, they are inadequate for forecasting, being unable to generalize to unseen time steps due to the lack of inductive bias. In this paper, we propose DeepTime, a meta-optimization framework to learn deep time-index models which overcome these limitations, yielding an efficient and accurate forecasting model. Extensive experiments on real world datasets in the long sequence time-series forecasting setting demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTime.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Recent advances in diffusion models have brought remarkable visual fidelity to instruction-guided image editing. However, their global denoising process inherently entangles the edited region with the entire image context, leading to unintended spurious modifications and compromised adherence to editing instructions. In contrast, autoregressive models offer a distinct paradigm by formulating image synthesis as a sequential process over discrete visual tokens. Their causal and compositional mechanism naturally circumvents the adherence challenges of diffusion-based methods. In this paper, we present VAREdit, a visual autoregressive (VAR) framework that reframes image editing as a next-scale prediction problem. Conditioned on source image features and text instructions, VAREdit generates multi-scale target features to achieve precise edits. A core challenge in this paradigm is how to effectively condition the source image tokens. We observe that finest-scale source features cannot effectively guide the prediction of coarser target features. To bridge this gap, we introduce a Scale-Aligned Reference (SAR) module, which injects scale-matched conditioning information into the first self-attention layer. VAREdit demonstrates significant advancements in both editing adherence and efficiency. On standard benchmarks, it outperforms leading diffusion-based methods by 30\%+ higher GPT-Balance score. Moreover, it completes a 512times512 editing in 1.2 seconds, making it 2.2times faster than the similarly sized UltraEdit. The models are available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/VAREdit.

Autoregressive models for video generation typically operate frame-by-frame, extending next-token prediction from language to video's temporal dimension. We question that unlike word as token is universally agreed in language if frame is a appropriate prediction unit? To address this, we present VideoAR, a unified framework that supports a spectrum of prediction units including full frames, key-detail frames, multiscale refinements, and spatiotemporal cubes. Among these designs, we find model video generation using spatiotemporal cubes as prediction units, which allows autoregressive models to operate across both spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously. This approach eliminates the assumption that frames are the natural atomic units for video autoregression. We evaluate VideoAR across diverse prediction strategies, finding that cube-based prediction consistently delivers superior quality, speed, and temporal coherence. By removing the frame-by-frame constraint, our video generator surpasses state-of-the-art baselines on VBench while achieving faster inference and enabling seamless scaling to minute-long sequences. We hope this work will motivate rethinking sequence decomposition in video and other spatiotemporal domains.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Auto-Regressive (AR) models have achieved impressive results in 2D image generation by modeling joint distributions in the grid space. While this approach has been extended to the 3D domain for powerful shape generation, it still has two limitations: expensive computations on volumetric grids and ambiguous auto-regressive order along grid dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Improved Auto-regressive Model (ImAM) for 3D shape generation, which applies discrete representation learning based on a latent vector instead of volumetric grids. Our approach not only reduces computational costs but also preserves essential geometric details by learning the joint distribution in a more tractable order. Moreover, thanks to the simplicity of our model architecture, we can naturally extend it from unconditional to conditional generation by concatenating various conditioning inputs, such as point clouds, categories, images, and texts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ImAM can synthesize diverse and faithful shapes of multiple categories, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

We study the SAM (Sharpness-Aware Minimization) optimizer which has recently attracted a lot of interest due to its increased performance over more classical variants of stochastic gradient descent. Our main contribution is the derivation of continuous-time models (in the form of SDEs) for SAM and two of its variants, both for the full-batch and mini-batch settings. We demonstrate that these SDEs are rigorous approximations of the real discrete-time algorithms (in a weak sense, scaling linearly with the learning rate). Using these models, we then offer an explanation of why SAM prefers flat minima over sharp ones~--~by showing that it minimizes an implicitly regularized loss with a Hessian-dependent noise structure. Finally, we prove that SAM is attracted to saddle points under some realistic conditions. Our theoretical results are supported by detailed experiments.

The vision community has started to build with the recently developed state space model, Mamba, as the new backbone for a range of tasks. This paper shows that Mamba's visual capability can be significantly enhanced through autoregressive pretraining, a direction not previously explored. Efficiency-wise, the autoregressive nature can well capitalize on the Mamba's unidirectional recurrent structure, enabling faster overall training speed compared to other training strategies like mask modeling. Performance-wise, autoregressive pretraining equips the Mamba architecture with markedly higher accuracy over its supervised-trained counterparts and, more importantly, successfully unlocks its scaling potential to large and even huge model sizes. For example, with autoregressive pretraining, a base-size Mamba attains 83.2\% ImageNet accuracy, outperforming its supervised counterpart by 2.0\%; our huge-size Mamba, the largest Vision Mamba to date, attains 85.0\% ImageNet accuracy (85.5\% when finetuned with 384times384 inputs), notably surpassing all other Mamba variants in vision. The code is available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/ARM.

Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the pre-trained fine-tuning paradigm have become pivotal in solving natural language processing tasks, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of how model complexity influences fine-tuning performance remains challenging and has not been well explored yet. In this paper, we focus on autoregressive LLMs and propose to employ Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model them. Based on the HMM modeling, we investigate the relationship between model complexity and the generalization capability in downstream tasks. Specifically, we consider a popular tuning paradigm for downstream tasks, head tuning, where all pre-trained parameters are frozen and only individual heads are trained atop pre-trained LLMs. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the risk initially increases and then decreases with rising model complexity, showcasing a "double descent" phenomenon. In this case, the initial "descent" is degenerate, signifying that the "sweet spot" where bias and variance are balanced occurs when the model size is zero. Obtaining the presented in this study conclusion confronts several challenges, primarily revolving around effectively modeling autoregressive LLMs and downstream tasks, as well as conducting a comprehensive risk analysis for multivariate regression. Our research is substantiated by experiments conducted on data generated from HMMs, which provided empirical support and alignment with our theoretical insights.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

Autoregressive models (ARMs), which predict subsequent tokens one-by-one ``from left to right,'' have achieved significant success across a wide range of sequence generation tasks. However, they struggle to accurately represent sequences that require satisfying sophisticated constraints or whose sequential dependencies are better addressed by out-of-order generation. Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) address some of these limitations, but the process of unmasking multiple tokens simultaneously in MDMs can introduce incoherences, and MDMs cannot handle arbitrary infilling constraints when the number of tokens to be filled in is not known in advance. In this work, we introduce Insertion Language Models (ILMs), which learn to insert tokens at arbitrary positions in a sequence -- that is, they select jointly both the position and the vocabulary element to be inserted. By inserting tokens one at a time, ILMs can represent strong dependencies between tokens, and their ability to generate sequences in arbitrary order allows them to accurately model sequences where token dependencies do not follow a left-to-right sequential structure. To train ILMs, we propose a tailored network parameterization and use a simple denoising objective. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that ILMs outperform both ARMs and MDMs on common planning tasks. Furthermore, we show that ILMs outperform MDMs and perform on par with ARMs in an unconditional text generation task while offering greater flexibility than MDMs in arbitrary-length text infilling.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. To extend the generation length and facilitate real-world applications, a majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on the last frame(s) of the previous clip. However, existing autoregressive VDMs are highly inefficient and redundant: The model must re-compute all the conditional frames that are overlapped between adjacent clips. This issue is exacerbated when the conditional frames are extended autoregressively to provide the model with long-term context. In such cases, the computational demands increase significantly (i.e., with a quadratic complexity w.r.t. the autoregression step). In this paper, we propose Ca2-VDM, an efficient autoregressive VDM with Causal generation and Cache sharing. For causal generation, it introduces unidirectional feature computation, which ensures that the cache of conditional frames can be precomputed in previous autoregression steps and reused in every subsequent step, eliminating redundant computations. For cache sharing, it shares the cache across all denoising steps to avoid the huge cache storage cost. Extensive experiments demonstrated that our Ca2-VDM achieves state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative video generation results and significantly improves the generation speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/CausalCache-VDM

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Developing architectures suitable for modeling raw audio is a challenging problem due to the high sampling rates of audio waveforms. Standard sequence modeling approaches like RNNs and CNNs have previously been tailored to fit the demands of audio, but the resultant architectures make undesirable computational tradeoffs and struggle to model waveforms effectively. We propose SaShiMi, a new multi-scale architecture for waveform modeling built around the recently introduced S4 model for long sequence modeling. We identify that S4 can be unstable during autoregressive generation, and provide a simple improvement to its parameterization by drawing connections to Hurwitz matrices. SaShiMi yields state-of-the-art performance for unconditional waveform generation in the autoregressive setting. Additionally, SaShiMi improves non-autoregressive generation performance when used as the backbone architecture for a diffusion model. Compared to prior architectures in the autoregressive generation setting, SaShiMi generates piano and speech waveforms which humans find more musical and coherent respectively, e.g. 2x better mean opinion scores than WaveNet on an unconditional speech generation task. On a music generation task, SaShiMi outperforms WaveNet on density estimation and speed at both training and inference even when using 3x fewer parameters. Code can be found at https://github.com/HazyResearch/state-spaces and samples at https://hazyresearch.stanford.edu/sashimi-examples.

Autoregressive language models (ARMs) deliver strong likelihoods, but are inherently serial: they generate one token per forward pass, which limits throughput and inflates latency for long sequences. Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) parallelize across positions and thus appear promising for language generation, yet standard discrete diffusion typically needs hundreds to thousands of model evaluations to reach high quality, trading serial depth for iterative breadth. We introduce FS-DFM, Few-Step Discrete Flow-Matching. A discrete flow-matching model designed for speed without sacrificing quality. The core idea is simple: make the number of sampling steps an explicit parameter and train the model to be consistent across step budgets, so one big move lands where many small moves would. We pair this with a reliable update rule that moves probability in the right direction without overshooting, and with strong teacher guidance distilled from long-run trajectories. Together, these choices make few-step sampling stable, accurate, and easy to control. On language modeling benchmarks, FS-DFM with 8 sampling steps achieves perplexity parity with a 1,024-step discrete-flow baseline for generating 1,024 tokens using a similar-size model, delivering up to 128 times faster sampling and corresponding latency/throughput gains.

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while it leads to poor generalization on unseen instances and ignores potentially necessary interactions between channels. Conversely, the Channel-Dependent (CD) strategy mixes all channels with even irrelevant and indiscriminate information, which, however, results in oversmoothing issues and limits forecasting accuracy. There is a lack of channel strategy that effectively balances individual channel treatment for improved forecasting performance without overlooking essential interactions between channels. Motivated by our observation of a correlation between the time series model's performance boost against channel mixing and the intrinsic similarity on a pair of channels, we developed a novel and adaptable Channel Clustering Module (CCM). CCM dynamically groups channels characterized by intrinsic similarities and leverages cluster information instead of individual channel identities, combining the best of CD and CI worlds. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CCM can (1) boost the performance of CI and CD models by an average margin of 2.4% and 7.2% on long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively; (2) enable zero-shot forecasting with mainstream time series forecasting models; (3) uncover intrinsic time series patterns among channels and improve interpretability of complex time series models.

Visual autoregressive models typically adhere to a raster-order ``next-token prediction" paradigm, which overlooks the spatial and temporal locality inherent in visual content. Specifically, visual tokens exhibit significantly stronger correlations with their spatially or temporally adjacent tokens compared to those that are distant. In this paper, we propose Neighboring Autoregressive Modeling (NAR), a novel paradigm that formulates autoregressive visual generation as a progressive outpainting procedure, following a near-to-far ``next-neighbor prediction" mechanism. Starting from an initial token, the remaining tokens are decoded in ascending order of their Manhattan distance from the initial token in the spatial-temporal space, progressively expanding the boundary of the decoded region. To enable parallel prediction of multiple adjacent tokens in the spatial-temporal space, we introduce a set of dimension-oriented decoding heads, each predicting the next token along a mutually orthogonal dimension. During inference, all tokens adjacent to the decoded tokens are processed in parallel, substantially reducing the model forward steps for generation. Experiments on ImageNet256times 256 and UCF101 demonstrate that NAR achieves 2.4times and 8.6times higher throughput respectively, while obtaining superior FID/FVD scores for both image and video generation tasks compared to the PAR-4X approach. When evaluating on text-to-image generation benchmark GenEval, NAR with 0.8B parameters outperforms Chameleon-7B while using merely 0.4 of the training data. Code is available at https://github.com/ThisisBillhe/NAR.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

This work challenges the residual prediction paradigm in visual autoregressive modeling and presents FlexVAR, a new Flexible Visual AutoRegressive image generation paradigm. FlexVAR facilitates autoregressive learning with ground-truth prediction, enabling each step to independently produce plausible images. This simple, intuitive approach swiftly learns visual distributions and makes the generation process more flexible and adaptable. Trained solely on low-resolution images (leq 256px), FlexVAR can: (1) Generate images of various resolutions and aspect ratios, even exceeding the resolution of the training images. (2) Support various image-to-image tasks, including image refinement, in/out-painting, and image expansion. (3) Adapt to various autoregressive steps, allowing for faster inference with fewer steps or enhancing image quality with more steps. Our 1.0B model outperforms its VAR counterpart on the ImageNet 256times256 benchmark. Moreover, when zero-shot transfer the image generation process with 13 steps, the performance further improves to 2.08 FID, outperforming state-of-the-art autoregressive models AiM/VAR by 0.25/0.28 FID and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.52/0.19 FID, respectively. When transferring our 1.0B model to the ImageNet 512times512 benchmark in a zero-shot manner, FlexVAR achieves competitive results compared to the VAR 2.3B model, which is a fully supervised model trained at 512times512 resolution.

This report presents VibeVoice, a novel model designed to synthesize long-form speech with multiple speakers by employing next-token diffusion, which is a unified method for modeling continuous data by autoregressively generating latent vectors via diffusion. To enable this, we introduce a novel continuous speech tokenizer that, when compared to the popular Encodec model, improves data compression by 80 times while maintaining comparable performance. The tokenizer effectively preserves audio fidelity while significantly boosting computational efficiency for processing long sequences. Thus, VibeVoice can synthesize long-form speech for up to 90 minutes (in a 64K context window length) with a maximum of 4 speakers, capturing the authentic conversational ``vibe'' and surpassing open-source and proprietary dialogue models.

Unified generation of sequence and structure for scientific data (e.g., materials, molecules, proteins) is a critical task. Existing approaches primarily rely on either autoregressive sequence models or diffusion models, each offering distinct advantages and facing notable limitations. Autoregressive models, such as GPT, Llama, and Phi-4, have demonstrated remarkable success in natural language generation and have been extended to multimodal tasks (e.g., image, video, and audio) using advanced encoders like VQ-VAE to represent complex modalities as discrete sequences. However, their direct application to scientific domains is challenging due to the high precision requirements and the diverse nature of scientific data. On the other hand, diffusion models excel at generating high-dimensional scientific data, such as protein, molecule, and material structures, with remarkable accuracy. Yet, their inability to effectively model sequences limits their potential as general-purpose multimodal foundation models. To address these challenges, we propose UniGenX, a unified framework that combines autoregressive next-token prediction with conditional diffusion models. This integration leverages the strengths of autoregressive models to ease the training of conditional diffusion models, while diffusion-based generative heads enhance the precision of autoregressive predictions. We validate the effectiveness of UniGenX on material and small molecule generation tasks, achieving a significant leap in state-of-the-art performance for material crystal structure prediction and establishing new state-of-the-art results for small molecule structure prediction, de novo design, and conditional generation. Notably, UniGenX demonstrates significant improvements, especially in handling long sequences for complex structures, showcasing its efficacy as a versatile tool for scientific data generation.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

It is desirable but challenging to generate content-rich long videos in the scale of minutes. Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) have achieved great success in generating coherent and long sequences of tokens in the domain of natural language processing, while the exploration of autoregressive LLMs for video generation is limited to generating short videos of several seconds. In this work, we conduct a deep analysis of the challenges that prevent autoregressive LLM-based video generators from generating long videos. Based on the observations and analysis, we propose Loong, a new autoregressive LLM-based video generator that can generate minute-long videos. Specifically, we model the text tokens and video tokens as a unified sequence for autoregressive LLMs and train the model from scratch. We propose progressive short-to-long training with a loss re-weighting scheme to mitigate the loss imbalance problem for long video training. We further investigate inference strategies, including video token re-encoding and sampling strategies, to diminish error accumulation during inference. Our proposed Loong can be trained on 10-second videos and be extended to generate minute-level long videos conditioned on text prompts, as demonstrated by the results. More samples are available at: https://epiphqny.github.io/Loong-video.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Multimodal autoregressive (AR) models, based on next-token prediction and transformer architecture, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in various multimodal tasks including text-to-image (T2I) generation. Despite their strong performance in general T2I tasks, our research reveals that these models initially struggle with subject-driven image generation compared to dominant diffusion models. To address this limitation, we introduce Proxy-Tuning, leveraging diffusion models to enhance AR models' capabilities in subject-specific image generation. Our method reveals a striking weak-to-strong phenomenon: fine-tuned AR models consistently outperform their diffusion model supervisors in both subject fidelity and prompt adherence. We analyze this performance shift and identify scenarios where AR models excel, particularly in multi-subject compositions and contextual understanding. This work not only demonstrates impressive results in subject-driven AR image generation, but also unveils the potential of weak-to-strong generalization in the image generation domain, contributing to a deeper understanding of different architectures' strengths and limitations.

Given an input painting, we reconstruct a time-lapse video of how it may have been painted. We formulate this as an autoregressive image generation problem, in which an initially blank "canvas" is iteratively updated. The model learns from real artists by training on many painting videos. Our approach incorporates text and region understanding to define a set of painting "instructions" and updates the canvas with a novel diffusion-based renderer. The method extrapolates beyond the limited, acrylic style paintings on which it has been trained, showing plausible results for a wide range of artistic styles and genres.

Despite remarkable progress in autoregressive language models, alternative generative paradigms beyond left-to-right generation are still being actively explored. Discrete diffusion models, with the capacity for parallel generation, have recently emerged as a promising alternative. Unfortunately, these models still underperform the autoregressive counterparts, with the performance gap increasing when reducing the number of sampling steps. Our analysis reveals that this degradation is a consequence of an imperfect approximation used by diffusion models. In this work, we propose Energy-based Diffusion Language Model (EDLM), an energy-based model operating at the full sequence level for each diffusion step, introduced to improve the underlying approximation used by diffusion models. More specifically, we introduce an EBM in a residual form, and show that its parameters can be obtained by leveraging a pretrained autoregressive model or by finetuning a bidirectional transformer via noise contrastive estimation. We also propose an efficient generation algorithm via parallel important sampling. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks show that our model can consistently outperform state-of-the-art diffusion models by a significant margin, and approaches autoregressive models' perplexity. We further show that, without any generation performance drop, our framework offers a 1.3times sampling speedup over existing diffusion models.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Autoregressive Predictive Coding (APC), as a self-supervised objective, has enjoyed success in learning representations from large amounts of unlabeled data, and the learned representations are rich for many downstream tasks. However, the connection between low self-supervised loss and strong performance in downstream tasks remains unclear. In this work, we propose Vector-Quantized Autoregressive Predictive Coding (VQ-APC), a novel model that produces quantized representations, allowing us to explicitly control the amount of information encoded in the representations. By studying a sequence of increasingly limited models, we reveal the constituents of the learned representations. In particular, we confirm the presence of information with probing tasks, while showing the absence of information with mutual information, uncovering the model's preference in preserving speech information as its capacity becomes constrained. We find that there exists a point where phonetic and speaker information are amplified to maximize a self-supervised objective. As a byproduct, the learned codes for a particular model capacity correspond well to English phones.

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal (cross-time) and variate (cross-variate) dependencies. While Transformer-based models have gained popularity for their flexibility in capturing both sequential and cross-variate relationships, it is unclear how to best integrate these two sources of information in the context of the Transformer architecture while optimizing for both performance and efficiency. We re-purpose the Transformer architecture to effectively model both cross-time and cross-variate dependencies. Our approach begins by embedding each variate independently into a variate-wise representation that captures its cross-time dynamics, and then models cross-variate dependencies through attention mechanisms on these learned embeddings. Gating operations in both cross-time and cross-variate modeling phases regulate information flow, allowing the model to focus on the most relevant features for accurate predictions. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 13 real-world datasets and can be seamlessly integrated into other Transformer-based and LLM-based forecasters, delivering performance improvements up to 20.7\% over original models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/nyuolab/Gateformer.

Invariance learning methods aim to learn invariant features in the hope that they generalize under distributional shifts. Although many tasks are naturally characterized by continuous domains, current invariance learning techniques generally assume categorically indexed domains. For example, auto-scaling in cloud computing often needs a CPU utilization prediction model that generalizes across different times (e.g., time of a day and date of a year), where `time' is a continuous domain index. In this paper, we start by theoretically showing that existing invariance learning methods can fail for continuous domain problems. Specifically, the naive solution of splitting continuous domains into discrete ones ignores the underlying relationship among domains, and therefore potentially leads to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we then propose Continuous Invariance Learning (CIL), which extracts invariant features across continuously indexed domains. CIL is a novel adversarial procedure that measures and controls the conditional independence between the labels and continuous domain indices given the extracted features. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the superiority of CIL over existing invariance learning methods. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets (including data collected from production systems) show that CIL consistently outperforms strong baselines among all the tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have proven to be remarkably efficient, both across a wide range of natural language processing tasks and well beyond them. However, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the origins of their impressive performance remains elusive. In this paper, we approach this challenging task by drawing an equivalence between generic autoregressive language models with vocabulary of size T and context window of size K and Markov chains defined on a finite state space of size O(T^K). We derive several surprising findings related to the existence of a stationary distribution of Markov chains that capture the inference power of LLMs, their speed of convergence to it, and the influence of the temperature on the latter. We then prove pre-training and in-context generalization bounds and show how the drawn equivalence allows us to enrich their interpretation. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical guarantees with experiments on several recent LLMs to highlight how they capture the behavior observed in practice.

Most recent real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR) methods employ pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models to synthesize the high-quality image either from random Gaussian noise, which yields realistic results but is slow due to iterative denoising, or directly from the input low-quality image, which is efficient but at the price of lower output quality. These approaches train ControlNet or LoRA modules while keeping the pre-trained model fixed, which often introduces over-enhanced artifacts and hallucinations, suffering from the robustness to inputs of varying degradations. Recent visual autoregressive (AR) models, such as pre-trained Infinity, can provide strong T2I generation capabilities while offering superior efficiency by using the bitwise next-scale prediction strategy. Building upon next-scale prediction, we introduce a robust Real-ISR framework, namely Next-Scale Autoregressive Modeling (NSARM). Specifically, we train NSARM in two stages: a transformation network is first trained to map the input low-quality image to preliminary scales, followed by an end-to-end full-model fine-tuning. Such a comprehensive fine-tuning enhances the robustness of NSARM in Real-ISR tasks without compromising its generative capability. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that as a pure AR model, NSARM achieves superior visual results over existing Real-ISR methods while maintaining a fast inference speed. Most importantly, it demonstrates much higher robustness to the quality of input images, showing stronger generalization performance. Project page: https://github.com/Xiangtaokong/NSARM

Data-driven modelling and synthesis of motion is an active research area with applications that include animation, games, and social robotics. This paper introduces a new class of probabilistic, generative, and controllable motion-data models based on normalising flows. Models of this kind can describe highly complex distributions, yet can be trained efficiently using exact maximum likelihood, unlike GANs or VAEs. Our proposed model is autoregressive and uses LSTMs to enable arbitrarily long time-dependencies. Importantly, is is also causal, meaning that each pose in the output sequence is generated without access to poses or control inputs from future time steps; this absence of algorithmic latency is important for interactive applications with real-time motion control. The approach can in principle be applied to any type of motion since it does not make restrictive, task-specific assumptions regarding the motion or the character morphology. We evaluate the models on motion-capture datasets of human and quadruped locomotion. Objective and subjective results show that randomly-sampled motion from the proposed method outperforms task-agnostic baselines and attains a motion quality close to recorded motion capture.

The integration of Vector Quantised Variational AutoEncoder (VQ-VAE) with autoregressive models as generation part has yielded high-quality results on image generation. However, the autoregressive models will strictly follow the progressive scanning order during the sampling phase. This leads the existing VQ series models to hardly escape the trap of lacking global information. Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) in the continuous domain have shown a capability to capture the global context, while generating high-quality images. In the discrete state space, some works have demonstrated the potential to perform text generation and low resolution image generation. We show that with the help of a content-rich discrete visual codebook from VQ-VAE, the discrete diffusion model can also generate high fidelity images with global context, which compensates for the deficiency of the classical autoregressive model along pixel space. Meanwhile, the integration of the discrete VAE with the diffusion model resolves the drawback of conventional autoregressive models being oversized, and the diffusion model which demands excessive time in the sampling process when generating images. It is found that the quality of the generated images is heavily dependent on the discrete visual codebook. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed Vector Quantised Discrete Diffusion Model (VQ-DDM) is able to achieve comparable performance to top-tier methods with low complexity. It also demonstrates outstanding advantages over other vectors quantised with autoregressive models in terms of image inpainting tasks without additional training.

Radiotherapy often involves a prolonged treatment period. During this time, patients may experience organ motion due to breathing and other physiological factors. Predicting and modeling this motion before treatment is crucial for ensuring precise radiation delivery. However, existing pre-treatment organ motion prediction methods primarily rely on deformation analysis using principal component analysis (PCA), which is highly dependent on registration quality and struggles to capture periodic temporal dynamics for motion modeling.In this paper, we observe that organ motion prediction closely resembles an autoregressive process, a technique widely used in natural language processing (NLP). Autoregressive models predict the next token based on previous inputs, naturally aligning with our objective of predicting future organ motion phases. Building on this insight, we reformulate organ motion prediction as an autoregressive process to better capture patient-specific motion patterns. Specifically, we acquire 4D CT scans for each patient before treatment, with each sequence comprising multiple 3D CT phases. These phases are fed into the autoregressive model to predict future phases based on prior phase motion patterns. We evaluate our method on a real-world test set of 4D CT scans from 50 patients who underwent radiotherapy at our institution and a public dataset containing 4D CT scans from 20 patients (some with multiple scans), totaling over 1,300 3D CT phases. The performance in predicting the motion of the lung and heart surpasses existing benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing motion dynamics from CT images. These results highlight the potential of our method to improve pre-treatment planning in radiotherapy, enabling more precise and adaptive radiation delivery.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success across various fields, from large language models (LLMs) to large multimodal models (LMMs) and 2D content generation, moving closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI). Despite these advances, applying autoregressive approaches to 3D object generation and understanding remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces Scale AutoRegressive 3D (SAR3D), a novel framework that leverages a multi-scale 3D vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE) to tokenize 3D objects for efficient autoregressive generation and detailed understanding. By predicting the next scale in a multi-scale latent representation instead of the next single token, SAR3D reduces generation time significantly, achieving fast 3D object generation in just 0.82 seconds on an A6000 GPU. Additionally, given the tokens enriched with hierarchical 3D-aware information, we finetune a pretrained LLM on them, enabling multimodal comprehension of 3D content. Our experiments show that SAR3D surpasses current 3D generation methods in both speed and quality and allows LLMs to interpret and caption 3D models comprehensively.

Recent work in image and video generation has been adopting the autoregressive LLM architecture due to its generality and potentially easy integration into multi-modal systems. The crux of applying autoregressive training in language generation to visual generation is discretization -- representing continuous data like images and videos as discrete tokens. Common methods of discretizing images and videos include modeling raw pixel values, which are prohibitively lengthy, or vector quantization, which requires convoluted pre-hoc training. In this work, we propose to directly model images and videos as compressed files saved on computers via canonical codecs (e.g., JPEG, AVC/H.264). Using the default Llama architecture without any vision-specific modifications, we pretrain JPEG-LM from scratch to generate images (and AVC-LM to generate videos as a proof of concept), by directly outputting compressed file bytes in JPEG and AVC formats. Evaluation of image generation shows that this simple and straightforward approach is more effective than pixel-based modeling and sophisticated vector quantization baselines (on which our method yields a 31% reduction in FID). Our analysis shows that JPEG-LM has an especial advantage over vector quantization models in generating long-tail visual elements. Overall, we show that using canonical codec representations can help lower the barriers between language generation and visual generation, facilitating future research on multi-modal language/image/video LLMs.

We propose Axial Transformers, a self-attention-based autoregressive model for images and other data organized as high dimensional tensors. Existing autoregressive models either suffer from excessively large computational resource requirements for high dimensional data, or make compromises in terms of distribution expressiveness or ease of implementation in order to decrease resource requirements. Our architecture, by contrast, maintains both full expressiveness over joint distributions over data and ease of implementation with standard deep learning frameworks, while requiring reasonable memory and computation and achieving state-of-the-art results on standard generative modeling benchmarks. Our models are based on axial attention, a simple generalization of self-attention that naturally aligns with the multiple dimensions of the tensors in both the encoding and the decoding settings. Notably the proposed structure of the layers allows for the vast majority of the context to be computed in parallel during decoding without introducing any independence assumptions. This semi-parallel structure goes a long way to making decoding from even a very large Axial Transformer broadly applicable. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results for the Axial Transformer on the ImageNet-32 and ImageNet-64 image benchmarks as well as on the BAIR Robotic Pushing video benchmark. We open source the implementation of Axial Transformers.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

Creating machines capable of understanding the world in 3D is essential in assisting designers that build and edit 3D environments and robots navigating and interacting within a three-dimensional space. Inspired by advances in language and image modeling, we investigate the potential of autoregressive models for a new modality: structured 3D scenes. To this end, we propose a unified LLM framework that aligns language, images, and 3D scenes and provide a detailed ''cookbook'' outlining critical design choices for achieving optimal training and performance addressing key questions related to data representation, modality-specific objectives, and more. We evaluate performance across four core 3D tasks -- rendering, recognition, instruction-following, and question-answering -- and four 3D datasets, synthetic and real-world. We extend our approach to reconstruct complex 3D object shapes by enriching our 3D modality with quantized shape encodings, and show our model's effectiveness on real-world 3D object recognition tasks. Project webpage: https://glab-caltech.github.io/kyvo/

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Autoregressive language models are trained by minimizing the cross-entropy of the model distribution Q relative to the data distribution P -- that is, minimizing the forward cross-entropy, which is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We have observed that models trained in this way may "over-generalize", in the sense that they produce non-human-like text. Moreover, we believe that reverse cross-entropy, i.e., the cross-entropy of P relative to Q, is a better reflection of how a human would evaluate text generated by a model. Hence, we propose learning with MixCE, an objective that mixes the forward and reverse cross-entropies. We evaluate models trained with this objective on synthetic data settings (where P is known) and real data, and show that the resulting models yield better generated text without complex decoding strategies. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bloomberg/mixce-acl2023

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.