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Mar 11

Ensembling Portfolio Strategies for Long-Term Investments: A Distribution-Free Preference Framework for Decision-Making and Algorithms

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

Towards Assessing and Benchmarking Risk-Return Tradeoff of Off-Policy Evaluation

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

Stock Price Prediction Using CNN and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Stockformer: A Price-Volume Factor Stock Selection Model Based on Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Self-Attention Networks

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

Multi-Layer Deep xVA: Structural Credit Models, Measure Changes and Convergence Analysis

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

An Investigation of the Structural Characteristics of the Indian IT Sector and the Capital Goods Sector: An Application of the R Programming in Time Series Decomposition and Forecasting

Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Information Technology and Capital Goods for the period January 2009 till April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA index, NIFTY index and the US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate. We establish by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA index and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY index. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India reflects internal economic growth of India. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.

On the Existence of Simpler Machine Learning Models

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

Sharp-It: A Multi-view to Multi-view Diffusion Model for 3D Synthesis and Manipulation

Advancements in text-to-image diffusion models have led to significant progress in fast 3D content creation. One common approach is to generate a set of multi-view images of an object, and then reconstruct it into a 3D model. However, this approach bypasses the use of a native 3D representation of the object and is hence prone to geometric artifacts and limited in controllability and manipulation capabilities. An alternative approach involves native 3D generative models that directly produce 3D representations. These models, however, are typically limited in their resolution, resulting in lower quality 3D objects. In this work, we bridge the quality gap between methods that directly generate 3D representations and ones that reconstruct 3D objects from multi-view images. We introduce a multi-view to multi-view diffusion model called Sharp-It, which takes a 3D consistent set of multi-view images rendered from a low-quality object and enriches its geometric details and texture. The diffusion model operates on the multi-view set in parallel, in the sense that it shares features across the generated views. A high-quality 3D model can then be reconstructed from the enriched multi-view set. By leveraging the advantages of both 2D and 3D approaches, our method offers an efficient and controllable method for high-quality 3D content creation. We demonstrate that Sharp-It enables various 3D applications, such as fast synthesis, editing, and controlled generation, while attaining high-quality assets.

SHARP: Sparsity and Hidden Activation RePlay for Neuro-Inspired Continual Learning

Deep neural networks (DNNs) struggle to learn in dynamic environments since they rely on fixed datasets or stationary environments. Continual learning (CL) aims to address this limitation and enable DNNs to accumulate knowledge incrementally, similar to human learning. Inspired by how our brain consolidates memories, a powerful strategy in CL is replay, which involves training the DNN on a mixture of new and all seen classes. However, existing replay methods overlook two crucial aspects of biological replay: 1) the brain replays processed neural patterns instead of raw input, and 2) it prioritizes the replay of recently learned information rather than revisiting all past experiences. To address these differences, we propose SHARP, an efficient neuro-inspired CL method that leverages sparse dynamic connectivity and activation replay. Unlike other activation replay methods, which assume layers not subjected to replay have been pretrained and fixed, SHARP can continually update all layers. Also, SHARP is unique in that it only needs to replay few recently seen classes instead of all past classes. Our experiments on five datasets demonstrate that SHARP outperforms state-of-the-art replay methods in class incremental learning. Furthermore, we showcase SHARP's flexibility in a novel CL scenario where the boundaries between learning episodes are blurry. The SHARP code is available at https://github.com/BurakGurbuz97/SHARP-Continual-Learning.

Multiphysics Continuous Shape Optimization of the TAP Reactor Components

The Transatomic Power (TAP) reactor has an unusual design for a molten salt reactor technology, building upon the foundation laid by the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). This design introduces three key modifications to enhance efficiency and compactness: a revised fuel salt composition, an alternative moderator material, and moderator pins surrounded by the molten salt fuel. Unlike traditional solid-fueled reactors that rely on excess positive reactivity at the beginning of life, the TAP concept employs a dynamic approach. The core's design, featuring a cylindrical geometry with square assemblies of moderator rods surrounded by flowing fuel salt, provides flexibility in adjusting the moderator-to-fuel ratio during operation - using movable moderator rods - further adding criticality control capability in addition to the control rods system. Shape optimization of the core can play a crucial role in enhancing performance and efficiency. By applying multiphysics continuous shape optimization techniques to key components, such as the unit cells of the TAP reactor or its moderator assemblies, we can fine-tune the reactor's geometry to achieve optimal performance in key physics like neutronics and thermal hydraulics. We explore this aspect using the optimization module in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework which allows for multiphysics continuous shape optimization. The results reported here illustrate the benefits of applying continuous shape optimization in the design of nuclear reactor components and can help in extending the TAP reactor's performance.

TapMo: Shape-aware Motion Generation of Skeleton-free Characters

Previous motion generation methods are limited to the pre-rigged 3D human model, hindering their applications in the animation of various non-rigged characters. In this work, we present TapMo, a Text-driven Animation Pipeline for synthesizing Motion in a broad spectrum of skeleton-free 3D characters. The pivotal innovation in TapMo is its use of shape deformation-aware features as a condition to guide the diffusion model, thereby enabling the generation of mesh-specific motions for various characters. Specifically, TapMo comprises two main components - Mesh Handle Predictor and Shape-aware Diffusion Module. Mesh Handle Predictor predicts the skinning weights and clusters mesh vertices into adaptive handles for deformation control, which eliminates the need for traditional skeletal rigging. Shape-aware Motion Diffusion synthesizes motion with mesh-specific adaptations. This module employs text-guided motions and mesh features extracted during the first stage, preserving the geometric integrity of the animations by accounting for the character's shape and deformation. Trained in a weakly-supervised manner, TapMo can accommodate a multitude of non-human meshes, both with and without associated text motions. We demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of TapMo through rigorous qualitative and quantitative experiments. Our results reveal that TapMo consistently outperforms existing auto-animation methods, delivering superior-quality animations for both seen or unseen heterogeneous 3D characters.

Sharper Bounds for $\ell_p$ Sensitivity Sampling

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

FontStudio: Shape-Adaptive Diffusion Model for Coherent and Consistent Font Effect Generation

Recently, the application of modern diffusion-based text-to-image generation models for creating artistic fonts, traditionally the domain of professional designers, has garnered significant interest. Diverging from the majority of existing studies that concentrate on generating artistic typography, our research aims to tackle a novel and more demanding challenge: the generation of text effects for multilingual fonts. This task essentially requires generating coherent and consistent visual content within the confines of a font-shaped canvas, as opposed to a traditional rectangular canvas. To address this task, we introduce a novel shape-adaptive diffusion model capable of interpreting the given shape and strategically planning pixel distributions within the irregular canvas. To achieve this, we curate a high-quality shape-adaptive image-text dataset and incorporate the segmentation mask as a visual condition to steer the image generation process within the irregular-canvas. This approach enables the traditionally rectangle canvas-based diffusion model to produce the desired concepts in accordance with the provided geometric shapes. Second, to maintain consistency across multiple letters, we also present a training-free, shape-adaptive effect transfer method for transferring textures from a generated reference letter to others. The key insights are building a font effect noise prior and propagating the font effect information in a concatenated latent space. The efficacy of our FontStudio system is confirmed through user preference studies, which show a marked preference (78% win-rates on aesthetics) for our system even when compared to the latest unrivaled commercial product, Adobe Firefly.

Disentangling Shape and Pose for Object-Centric Deep Active Inference Models

Active inference is a first principles approach for understanding the brain in particular, and sentient agents in general, with the single imperative of minimizing free energy. As such, it provides a computational account for modelling artificial intelligent agents, by defining the agent's generative model and inferring the model parameters, actions and hidden state beliefs. However, the exact specification of the generative model and the hidden state space structure is left to the experimenter, whose design choices influence the resulting behaviour of the agent. Recently, deep learning methods have been proposed to learn a hidden state space structure purely from data, alleviating the experimenter from this tedious design task, but resulting in an entangled, non-interpreteable state space. In this paper, we hypothesize that such a learnt, entangled state space does not necessarily yield the best model in terms of free energy, and that enforcing different factors in the state space can yield a lower model complexity. In particular, we consider the problem of 3D object representation, and focus on different instances of the ShapeNet dataset. We propose a model that factorizes object shape, pose and category, while still learning a representation for each factor using a deep neural network. We show that models, with best disentanglement properties, perform best when adopted by an active agent in reaching preferred observations.

The shape and simplicity biases of adversarially robust ImageNet-trained CNNs

Increasingly more similarities between human vision and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been revealed in the past few years. Yet, vanilla CNNs often fall short in generalizing to adversarial or out-of-distribution (OOD) examples which humans demonstrate superior performance. Adversarial training is a leading learning algorithm for improving the robustness of CNNs on adversarial and OOD data; however, little is known about the properties, specifically the shape bias and internal features learned inside adversarially-robust CNNs. In this paper, we perform a thorough, systematic study to understand the shape bias and some internal mechanisms that enable the generalizability of AlexNet, GoogLeNet, and ResNet-50 models trained via adversarial training. We find that while standard ImageNet classifiers have a strong texture bias, their R counterparts rely heavily on shapes. Remarkably, adversarial training induces three simplicity biases into hidden neurons in the process of "robustifying" CNNs. That is, each convolutional neuron in R networks often changes to detecting (1) pixel-wise smoother patterns, i.e., a mechanism that blocks high-frequency noise from passing through the network; (2) more lower-level features i.e. textures and colors (instead of objects);and (3) fewer types of inputs. Our findings reveal the interesting mechanisms that made networks more adversarially robust and also explain some recent findings e.g., why R networks benefit from a much larger capacity (Xie et al. 2020) and can act as a strong image prior in image synthesis (Santurkar et al. 2019).

Feature Learning for Stock Price Prediction Shows a Significant Role of Analyst Rating

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.

Michelangelo: Conditional 3D Shape Generation based on Shape-Image-Text Aligned Latent Representation

We present a novel alignment-before-generation approach to tackle the challenging task of generating general 3D shapes based on 2D images or texts. Directly learning a conditional generative model from images or texts to 3D shapes is prone to producing inconsistent results with the conditions because 3D shapes have an additional dimension whose distribution significantly differs from that of 2D images and texts. To bridge the domain gap among the three modalities and facilitate multi-modal-conditioned 3D shape generation, we explore representing 3D shapes in a shape-image-text-aligned space. Our framework comprises two models: a Shape-Image-Text-Aligned Variational Auto-Encoder (SITA-VAE) and a conditional Aligned Shape Latent Diffusion Model (ASLDM). The former model encodes the 3D shapes into the shape latent space aligned to the image and text and reconstructs the fine-grained 3D neural fields corresponding to given shape embeddings via the transformer-based decoder. The latter model learns a probabilistic mapping function from the image or text space to the latent shape space. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed approach can generate higher-quality and more diverse 3D shapes that better semantically conform to the visual or textural conditional inputs, validating the effectiveness of the shape-image-text-aligned space for cross-modality 3D shape generation.

OpenShape: Scaling Up 3D Shape Representation Towards Open-World Understanding

We introduce OpenShape, a method for learning multi-modal joint representations of text, image, and point clouds. We adopt the commonly used multi-modal contrastive learning framework for representation alignment, but with a specific focus on scaling up 3D representations to enable open-world 3D shape understanding. To achieve this, we scale up training data by ensembling multiple 3D datasets and propose several strategies to automatically filter and enrich noisy text descriptions. We also explore and compare strategies for scaling 3D backbone networks and introduce a novel hard negative mining module for more efficient training. We evaluate OpenShape on zero-shot 3D classification benchmarks and demonstrate its superior capabilities for open-world recognition. Specifically, OpenShape achieves a zero-shot accuracy of 46.8% on the 1,156-category Objaverse-LVIS benchmark, compared to less than 10% for existing methods. OpenShape also achieves an accuracy of 85.3% on ModelNet40, outperforming previous zero-shot baseline methods by 20% and performing on par with some fully-supervised methods. Furthermore, we show that our learned embeddings encode a wide range of visual and semantic concepts (e.g., subcategories, color, shape, style) and facilitate fine-grained text-3D and image-3D interactions. Due to their alignment with CLIP embeddings, our learned shape representations can also be integrated with off-the-shelf CLIP-based models for various applications, such as point cloud captioning and point cloud-conditioned image generation.

Beyond Size: How Gradients Shape Pruning Decisions in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) with a billion or more parameters are prime targets for network pruning, which aims to reduce a portion of the network weights without compromising performance. Prior approaches such as Weights Magnitude, SparseGPT, and Wanda, either concentrated solely on weights or integrated weights with activations for sparsity. However, they overlooked the informative gradients derived from pretrained large language models. In this paper, we present a novel sparsity-centric pruning method for pretrained LLMs, termed Gradient-based Language Model Pruner (GBLM-Pruner). GBLM-Pruner leverages the first-order term of the Taylor expansion, operating in a training-free manner by harnessing properly normalized gradients from a few calibration samples to determine the importance pruning score, and substantially outperforms competitive counterparts like SparseGPT and Wanda in multiple benchmarks. Intriguing, after incorporating gradients, the unstructured pruning method tends to reveal some structural patterns post-pruning, which mirrors the geometric interdependence inherent in the LLMs' parameter structure. Additionally, GBLM-Pruner functions without any subsequent retraining or weight updates to maintain its simplicity as other counterparts. Extensive evaluations on LLaMA-1 and LLaMA-2 across various language benchmarks and perplexity show that GBLM-Pruner surpasses magnitude pruning, Wanda (weights+activations) and SparseGPT (weights+activations+weight update) by significant margins. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/RocktimJyotiDas/GBLM-Pruner.

Single-view 3D Scene Reconstruction with High-fidelity Shape and Texture

Reconstructing detailed 3D scenes from single-view images remains a challenging task due to limitations in existing approaches, which primarily focus on geometric shape recovery, overlooking object appearances and fine shape details. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework for simultaneous high-fidelity recovery of object shapes and textures from single-view images. Our approach utilizes the proposed Single-view neural implicit Shape and Radiance field (SSR) representations to leverage both explicit 3D shape supervision and volume rendering of color, depth, and surface normal images. To overcome shape-appearance ambiguity under partial observations, we introduce a two-stage learning curriculum incorporating both 3D and 2D supervisions. A distinctive feature of our framework is its ability to generate fine-grained textured meshes while seamlessly integrating rendering capabilities into the single-view 3D reconstruction model. This integration enables not only improved textured 3D object reconstruction by 27.7% and 11.6% on the 3D-FRONT and Pix3D datasets, respectively, but also supports the rendering of images from novel viewpoints. Beyond individual objects, our approach facilitates composing object-level representations into flexible scene representations, thereby enabling applications such as holistic scene understanding and 3D scene editing. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

POCO: 3D Pose and Shape Estimation with Confidence

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

Self-supervised Learning of Implicit Shape Representation with Dense Correspondence for Deformable Objects

Learning 3D shape representation with dense correspondence for deformable objects is a fundamental problem in computer vision. Existing approaches often need additional annotations of specific semantic domain, e.g., skeleton poses for human bodies or animals, which require extra annotation effort and suffer from error accumulation, and they are limited to specific domain. In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised approach to learn neural implicit shape representation for deformable objects, which can represent shapes with a template shape and dense correspondence in 3D. Our method does not require the priors of skeleton and skinning weight, and only requires a collection of shapes represented in signed distance fields. To handle the large deformation, we constrain the learned template shape in the same latent space with the training shapes, design a new formulation of local rigid constraint that enforces rigid transformation in local region and addresses local reflection issue, and present a new hierarchical rigid constraint to reduce the ambiguity due to the joint learning of template shape and correspondences. Extensive experiments show that our model can represent shapes with large deformations. We also show that our shape representation can support two typical applications, such as texture transfer and shape editing, with competitive performance. The code and models are available at https://iscas3dv.github.io/deformshape

CHORD: Category-level Hand-held Object Reconstruction via Shape Deformation

In daily life, humans utilize hands to manipulate objects. Modeling the shape of objects that are manipulated by the hand is essential for AI to comprehend daily tasks and to learn manipulation skills. However, previous approaches have encountered difficulties in reconstructing the precise shapes of hand-held objects, primarily owing to a deficiency in prior shape knowledge and inadequate data for training. As illustrated, given a particular type of tool, such as a mug, despite its infinite variations in shape and appearance, humans have a limited number of 'effective' modes and poses for its manipulation. This can be attributed to the fact that humans have mastered the shape prior of the 'mug' category, and can quickly establish the corresponding relations between different mug instances and the prior, such as where the rim and handle are located. In light of this, we propose a new method, CHORD, for Category-level Hand-held Object Reconstruction via shape Deformation. CHORD deforms a categorical shape prior for reconstructing the intra-class objects. To ensure accurate reconstruction, we empower CHORD with three types of awareness: appearance, shape, and interacting pose. In addition, we have constructed a new dataset, COMIC, of category-level hand-object interaction. COMIC contains a rich array of object instances, materials, hand interactions, and viewing directions. Extensive evaluation shows that CHORD outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in both quantitative and qualitative measures. Code, model, and datasets are available at https://kailinli.github.io/CHORD.

Zero-Shot 3D Shape Correspondence

We propose a novel zero-shot approach to computing correspondences between 3D shapes. Existing approaches mainly focus on isometric and near-isometric shape pairs (e.g., human vs. human), but less attention has been given to strongly non-isometric and inter-class shape matching (e.g., human vs. cow). To this end, we introduce a fully automatic method that exploits the exceptional reasoning capabilities of recent foundation models in language and vision to tackle difficult shape correspondence problems. Our approach comprises multiple stages. First, we classify the 3D shapes in a zero-shot manner by feeding rendered shape views to a language-vision model (e.g., BLIP2) to generate a list of class proposals per shape. These proposals are unified into a single class per shape by employing the reasoning capabilities of ChatGPT. Second, we attempt to segment the two shapes in a zero-shot manner, but in contrast to the co-segmentation problem, we do not require a mutual set of semantic regions. Instead, we propose to exploit the in-context learning capabilities of ChatGPT to generate two different sets of semantic regions for each shape and a semantic mapping between them. This enables our approach to match strongly non-isometric shapes with significant differences in geometric structure. Finally, we employ the generated semantic mapping to produce coarse correspondences that can further be refined by the functional maps framework to produce dense point-to-point maps. Our approach, despite its simplicity, produces highly plausible results in a zero-shot manner, especially between strongly non-isometric shapes.

Should ChatGPT and Bard Share Revenue with Their Data Providers? A New Business Model for the AI Era

With various AI tools such as ChatGPT becoming increasingly popular, we are entering a true AI era. We can foresee that exceptional AI tools will soon reap considerable profits. A crucial question arise: should AI tools share revenue with their training data providers in additional to traditional stakeholders and shareholders? The answer is Yes. Large AI tools, such as large language models, always require more and better quality data to continuously improve, but current copyright laws limit their access to various types of data. Sharing revenue between AI tools and their data providers could transform the current hostile zero-sum game relationship between AI tools and a majority of copyrighted data owners into a collaborative and mutually beneficial one, which is necessary to facilitate the development of a virtuous cycle among AI tools, their users and data providers that drives forward AI technology and builds a healthy AI ecosystem. However, current revenue-sharing business models do not work for AI tools in the forthcoming AI era, since the most widely used metrics for website-based traffic and action, such as clicks, will be replaced by new metrics such as prompts and cost per prompt for generative AI tools. A completely new revenue-sharing business model, which must be almost independent of AI tools and be easily explained to data providers, needs to establish a prompt-based scoring system to measure data engagement of each data provider. This paper systematically discusses how to build such a scoring system for all data providers for AI tools based on classification and content similarity models, and outlines the requirements for AI tools or third parties to build it. Sharing revenue with data providers using such a scoring system would encourage more data owners to participate in the revenue-sharing program. This will be a utilitarian AI era where all parties benefit.

TempoRL: laser pulse temporal shape optimization with Deep Reinforcement Learning

High Power Laser's (HPL) optimal performance is essential for the success of a wide variety of experimental tasks related to light-matter interactions. Traditionally, HPL parameters are optimised in an automated fashion relying on black-box numerical methods. However, these can be demanding in terms of computational resources and usually disregard transient and complex dynamics. Model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers a promising alternative framework for optimising HPL performance since it allows to tune the control parameters as a function of system states subject to nonlinear temporal dynamics without requiring an explicit dynamics model of those. Furthermore, DRL aims to find an optimal control policy rather than a static parameter configuration, particularly suitable for dynamic processes involving sequential decision-making. This is particularly relevant as laser systems are typically characterised by dynamic rather than static traits. Hence the need for a strategy to choose the control applied based on the current context instead of one single optimal control configuration. This paper investigates the potential of DRL in improving the efficiency and safety of HPL control systems. We apply this technique to optimise the temporal profile of laser pulses in the L1 pump laser hosted at the ELI Beamlines facility. We show how to adapt DRL to the setting of spectral phase control by solely tuning dispersion coefficients of the spectral phase and reaching pulses similar to transform limited with full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) of ca1.6 ps.

PoseExaminer: Automated Testing of Out-of-Distribution Robustness in Human Pose and Shape Estimation

Human pose and shape (HPS) estimation methods achieve remarkable results. However, current HPS benchmarks are mostly designed to test models in scenarios that are similar to the training data. This can lead to critical situations in real-world applications when the observed data differs significantly from the training data and hence is out-of-distribution (OOD). It is therefore important to test and improve the OOD robustness of HPS methods. To address this fundamental problem, we develop a simulator that can be controlled in a fine-grained manner using interpretable parameters to explore the manifold of images of human pose, e.g. by varying poses, shapes, and clothes. We introduce a learning-based testing method, termed PoseExaminer, that automatically diagnoses HPS algorithms by searching over the parameter space of human pose images to find the failure modes. Our strategy for exploring this high-dimensional parameter space is a multi-agent reinforcement learning system, in which the agents collaborate to explore different parts of the parameter space. We show that our PoseExaminer discovers a variety of limitations in current state-of-the-art models that are relevant in real-world scenarios but are missed by current benchmarks. For example, it finds large regions of realistic human poses that are not predicted correctly, as well as reduced performance for humans with skinny and corpulent body shapes. In addition, we show that fine-tuning HPS methods by exploiting the failure modes found by PoseExaminer improve their robustness and even their performance on standard benchmarks by a significant margin. The code are available for research purposes.

Latent-NeRF for Shape-Guided Generation of 3D Shapes and Textures

Text-guided image generation has progressed rapidly in recent years, inspiring major breakthroughs in text-guided shape generation. Recently, it has been shown that using score distillation, one can successfully text-guide a NeRF model to generate a 3D object. We adapt the score distillation to the publicly available, and computationally efficient, Latent Diffusion Models, which apply the entire diffusion process in a compact latent space of a pretrained autoencoder. As NeRFs operate in image space, a naive solution for guiding them with latent score distillation would require encoding to the latent space at each guidance step. Instead, we propose to bring the NeRF to the latent space, resulting in a Latent-NeRF. Analyzing our Latent-NeRF, we show that while Text-to-3D models can generate impressive results, they are inherently unconstrained and may lack the ability to guide or enforce a specific 3D structure. To assist and direct the 3D generation, we propose to guide our Latent-NeRF using a Sketch-Shape: an abstract geometry that defines the coarse structure of the desired object. Then, we present means to integrate such a constraint directly into a Latent-NeRF. This unique combination of text and shape guidance allows for increased control over the generation process. We also show that latent score distillation can be successfully applied directly on 3D meshes. This allows for generating high-quality textures on a given geometry. Our experiments validate the power of our different forms of guidance and the efficiency of using latent rendering. Implementation is available at https://github.com/eladrich/latent-nerf

ShAPO: Implicit Representations for Multi-Object Shape, Appearance, and Pose Optimization

Our method studies the complex task of object-centric 3D understanding from a single RGB-D observation. As it is an ill-posed problem, existing methods suffer from low performance for both 3D shape and 6D pose and size estimation in complex multi-object scenarios with occlusions. We present ShAPO, a method for joint multi-object detection, 3D textured reconstruction, 6D object pose and size estimation. Key to ShAPO is a single-shot pipeline to regress shape, appearance and pose latent codes along with the masks of each object instance, which is then further refined in a sparse-to-dense fashion. A novel disentangled shape and appearance database of priors is first learned to embed objects in their respective shape and appearance space. We also propose a novel, octree-based differentiable optimization step, allowing us to further improve object shape, pose and appearance simultaneously under the learned latent space, in an analysis-by-synthesis fashion. Our novel joint implicit textured object representation allows us to accurately identify and reconstruct novel unseen objects without having access to their 3D meshes. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method, trained on simulated indoor scenes, accurately regresses the shape, appearance and pose of novel objects in the real-world with minimal fine-tuning. Our method significantly out-performs all baselines on the NOCS dataset with an 8% absolute improvement in mAP for 6D pose estimation. Project page: https://zubair-irshad.github.io/projects/ShAPO.html

Learning 3D Human Shape and Pose from Dense Body Parts

Reconstructing 3D human shape and pose from monocular images is challenging despite the promising results achieved by the most recent learning-based methods. The commonly occurred misalignment comes from the facts that the mapping from images to the model space is highly non-linear and the rotation-based pose representation of body models is prone to result in the drift of joint positions. In this work, we investigate learning 3D human shape and pose from dense correspondences of body parts and propose a Decompose-and-aggregate Network (DaNet) to address these issues. DaNet adopts the dense correspondence maps, which densely build a bridge between 2D pixels and 3D vertices, as intermediate representations to facilitate the learning of 2D-to-3D mapping. The prediction modules of DaNet are decomposed into one global stream and multiple local streams to enable global and fine-grained perceptions for the shape and pose predictions, respectively. Messages from local streams are further aggregated to enhance the robust prediction of the rotation-based poses, where a position-aided rotation feature refinement strategy is proposed to exploit spatial relationships between body joints. Moreover, a Part-based Dropout (PartDrop) strategy is introduced to drop out dense information from intermediate representations during training, encouraging the network to focus on more complementary body parts as well as neighboring position features. The efficacy of the proposed method is validated on both indoor and real-world datasets including Human3.6M, UP3D, COCO, and 3DPW, showing that our method could significantly improve the reconstruction performance in comparison with previous state-of-the-art methods. Our code is publicly available at https://hongwenzhang.github.io/dense2mesh .

Stock Performance Evaluation for Portfolio Design from Different Sectors of the Indian Stock Market

The stock market offers a platform where people buy and sell shares of publicly listed companies. Generally, stock prices are quite volatile; hence predicting them is a daunting task. There is still much research going to develop more accuracy in stock price prediction. Portfolio construction refers to the allocation of different sector stocks optimally to achieve a maximum return by taking a minimum risk. A good portfolio can help investors earn maximum profit by taking a minimum risk. Beginning with Dow Jones Theory a lot of advancement has happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. In this project, we have tried to predict the future value of a few stocks from six important sectors of the Indian economy and also built a portfolio. As part of the project, our team has conducted a study of the performance of various Time series, machine learning, and deep learning models in stock price prediction on selected stocks from the chosen six important sectors of the economy. As part of building an efficient portfolio, we have studied multiple portfolio optimization theories beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built a minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the six chosen sectors by using the daily stock prices over the past five years as training data and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. We look forward to continuing our study in the area of stock price prediction and asset allocation and consider this project as the first stepping stone.

MME-Finance: A Multimodal Finance Benchmark for Expert-level Understanding and Reasoning

In recent years, multimodal benchmarks for general domains have guided the rapid development of multimodal models on general tasks. However, the financial field has its peculiarities. It features unique graphical images (e.g., candlestick charts, technical indicator charts) and possesses a wealth of specialized financial knowledge (e.g., futures, turnover rate). Therefore, benchmarks from general fields often fail to measure the performance of multimodal models in the financial domain, and thus cannot effectively guide the rapid development of large financial models. To promote the development of large financial multimodal models, we propose MME-Finance, an bilingual open-ended and practical usage-oriented Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmark. The characteristics of our benchmark are finance and expertise, which include constructing charts that reflect the actual usage needs of users (e.g., computer screenshots and mobile photography), creating questions according to the preferences in financial domain inquiries, and annotating questions by experts with 10+ years of experience in the financial industry. Additionally, we have developed a custom-designed financial evaluation system in which visual information is first introduced in the multi-modal evaluation process. Extensive experimental evaluations of 19 mainstream MLLMs are conducted to test their perception, reasoning, and cognition capabilities. The results indicate that models performing well on general benchmarks cannot do well on MME-Finance; for instance, the top-performing open-source and closed-source models obtain 65.69 (Qwen2VL-72B) and 63.18 (GPT-4o), respectively. Their performance is particularly poor in categories most relevant to finance, such as candlestick charts and technical indicator charts. In addition, we propose a Chinese version, which helps compare performance of MLLMs under a Chinese context.

Overview of the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES)

We present an overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES), an ambitious program of infrared imaging and spectroscopy in the GOODS-S and GOODS-N deep fields, designed to study galaxy evolution from high redshift to cosmic noon. JADES uses about 770 hours of Cycle 1 guaranteed time largely from the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) instrument teams. In GOODS-S, in and around the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and Chandra Deep Field South, JADES produces a deep imaging region of ~45 arcmin^2 with an average of 130 hrs of exposure time spread over 9 NIRCam filters. This is extended at medium depth in GOODS-S and GOODS-N with NIRCam imaging of ~175 arcmin^2 with an average exposure time of 20 hrs spread over 8-10 filters. In both fields, we conduct extensive NIRSpec multi-object spectroscopy, including 2 deep pointings of 55 hrs exposure time, 14 medium pointings of ~12 hrs, and 15 shallower pointings of ~4 hrs, targeting over 5000 HST and JWST-detected faint sources with 5 low, medium, and high-resolution dispersers covering 0.6-5.3 microns. Finally, JADES extends redward via coordinated parallels with the JWST Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI), featuring ~9 arcmin^2 with 43 hours of exposure at 7.7 microns and twice that area with 2-6.5 hours of exposure at 12.8 microns For nearly 30 years, the GOODS-S and GOODS-N fields have been developed as the premier deep fields on the sky; JADES is now providing a compelling start on the JWST legacy in these fields.

RF-ULM: Deep Learning for Radio-Frequency Ultrasound Localization Microscopy

In Ultrasound Localization Microscopy (ULM),achieving high-resolution images relies on the precise localization of contrast agent particles across consecutive beam-formed frames. However, our study uncovers an enormous potential: The process of delay-and-sum beamforming leads to an irreversible reduction of Radio-Frequency (RF) data, while its implications for localization remain largely unexplored. The rich contextual information embedded within RF wavefronts, including their hyperbolic shape and phase, offers great promise for guiding Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in challenging localization scenarios. To fully exploit this data, we propose to directly localize scatterers in RF signals. Our approach involves a custom super-resolution DNN using learned feature channel shuffling and a novel semi-global convolutional sampling block tailored for reliable and accurate wavefront localization. Additionally, we introduce a geometric point transformation that facilitates seamless mapping between RF and B-mode coordinate space. To understand the impact of beamforming on ULM, we validate the effectiveness of our method by conducting an extensive comparison with State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) techniques. We present the inaugural in vivo results from an RF-trained DNN, highlighting its real-world practicality. Our findings show that RF-ULM bridges the domain gap between synthetic and real datasets, offering a considerable advantage in terms of precision and complexity. To enable the broader research community to benefit from our findings, our code and the associated SOTA methods are made available at https://github.com/hahnec/rf-ulm.