Daily Papers

Recent large-scale language models (LLMs) with long Chain-of-Thought reasoning-such as DeepSeek-R1-have achieved impressive results on Olympiad-level mathematics benchmarks. However, they often rely on a narrow set of strategies and struggle with problems that require a novel way of thinking. To systematically investigate these limitations, we introduce OMEGA-Out-of-distribution Math Problems Evaluation with 3 Generalization Axes-a controlled yet diverse benchmark designed to evaluate three axes of out-of-distribution generalization, inspired by Boden's typology of creativity: (1) Exploratory-applying known problem solving skills to more complex instances within the same problem domain; (2) Compositional-combining distinct reasoning skills, previously learned in isolation, to solve novel problems that require integrating these skills in new and coherent ways; and (3) Transformative-adopting novel, often unconventional strategies by moving beyond familiar approaches to solve problems more effectively. OMEGA consists of programmatically generated training-test pairs derived from templated problem generators across geometry, number theory, algebra, combinatorics, logic, and puzzles, with solutions verified using symbolic, numerical, or graphical methods. We evaluate frontier (or top-tier) LLMs and observe sharp performance degradation as problem complexity increases. Moreover, we fine-tune the Qwen-series models across all generalization settings and observe notable improvements in exploratory generalization, while compositional generalization remains limited and transformative reasoning shows little to no improvement. By isolating and quantifying these fine-grained failures, OMEGA lays the groundwork for advancing LLMs toward genuine mathematical creativity beyond mechanical proficiency.

Pruning has become a widely adopted technique for reducing the hardware requirements of large language models (LLMs). To recover model performance after pruning, post-training is commonly employed to mitigate the resulting performance degradation. While post-training benefits from larger datasets, once the dataset size is already substantial, increasing the training data provides only limited performance gains. To balance post-training cost and model performance, it is necessary to explore the optimal amount of post-training data.Through extensive experiments on the Llama-3 and Qwen-2.5 series models, pruned using various common pruning methods, we uncover the scaling Law for Post-training after model Pruning, referred to as the P^2 Law.This law identifies four key factors for predicting the pruned model's post-training loss: the model size before pruning, the number of post-training tokens, the pruning rate, and the model's loss before pruning. Moreover, P^2 Law can generalize to larger dataset sizes, larger model sizes, and higher pruning rates, offering valuable insights for the post-training of pruned LLMs.

The rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) in vertical domains, including intellectual property (IP), lacks a specific evaluation benchmark for assessing their understanding, application, and reasoning abilities. To fill this gap, we introduce IPEval, the first evaluation benchmark tailored for IP agency and consulting tasks. IPEval comprises 2657 multiple-choice questions across four major dimensions: creation, application, protection, and management of IP. These questions span patent rights (inventions, utility models, designs), trademarks, copyrights, trade secrets, and other related laws. Evaluation methods include zero-shot, 5-few-shot, and Chain of Thought (CoT) for seven LLM types, predominantly in English or Chinese. Results show superior English performance by models like GPT series and Qwen series, while Chinese-centric LLMs excel in Chinese tests, albeit specialized IP LLMs lag behind general-purpose ones. Regional and temporal aspects of IP underscore the need for LLMs to grasp legal nuances and evolving laws. IPEval aims to accurately gauge LLM capabilities in IP and spur development of specialized models. Website: https://ipeval.github.io/

In this work, we introduce the Qwen3 Embedding series, a significant advancement over its predecessor, the GTE-Qwen series, in text embedding and reranking capabilities, built upon the Qwen3 foundation models. Leveraging the Qwen3 LLMs' robust capabilities in multilingual text understanding and generation, our innovative multi-stage training pipeline combines large-scale unsupervised pre-training with supervised fine-tuning on high-quality datasets. Effective model merging strategies further ensure the robustness and adaptability of the Qwen3 Embedding series. During the training process, the Qwen3 LLMs serve not only as backbone models but also play a crucial role in synthesizing high-quality, rich, and diverse training data across multiple domains and languages, thus enhancing the training pipeline. The Qwen3 Embedding series offers a spectrum of model sizes (0.6B, 4B, 8B) for both embedding and reranking tasks, addressing diverse deployment scenarios where users can optimize for either efficiency or effectiveness. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the Qwen3 Embedding series achieves state-of-the-art results across diverse benchmarks. Notably, it excels on the multilingual evaluation benchmark MTEB for text embedding, as well as in various retrieval tasks, including code retrieval, cross-lingual retrieval and multilingual retrieval. To facilitate reproducibility and promote community-driven research and development, the Qwen3 Embedding models are publicly available under the Apache 2.0 license.

Solving Bengali Math Word Problems (MWPs) remains a major challenge in natural language processing (NLP) due to the language's low-resource status and the multi-step reasoning required. Existing models struggle with complex Bengali MWPs, largely because no human-annotated Bengali dataset has previously addressed this task. This gap has limited progress in Bengali mathematical reasoning. To address this, we created SOMADHAN, a dataset of 8792 complex Bengali MWPs with manually written, step-by-step solutions. We designed this dataset to support reasoning-focused evaluation and model development in a linguistically underrepresented context. Using SOMADHAN, we evaluated a range of large language models (LLMs) - including GPT-4o, GPT-3.5 Turbo, LLaMA series models, Deepseek, and Qwen - through both zero-shot and few-shot prompting with and without Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. CoT prompting consistently improved performance over standard prompting, especially in tasks requiring multi-step logic. LLaMA-3.3 70B achieved the highest accuracy of 88% with few-shot CoT prompting. We also applied Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to fine-tune models efficiently, enabling them to adapt to Bengali MWPs with minimal computational cost. Our work fills a critical gap in Bengali NLP by providing a high-quality reasoning dataset and a scalable framework for solving complex MWPs. We aim to advance equitable research in low-resource languages and enhance reasoning capabilities in educational and language technologies.

The Qwen series has emerged as a leading family of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs), demonstrating remarkable capabilities in natural language understanding tasks. With the recent release of Qwen3, which exhibits superior performance across diverse benchmarks, there is growing interest in deploying these models efficiently in resource-constrained environments. Low-bit quantization presents a promising solution, yet its impact on Qwen3's performance remains underexplored. This study conducts a systematic evaluation of Qwen3's robustness under various quantization settings, aiming to uncover both opportunities and challenges in compressing this state-of-the-art model. We rigorously assess 5 existing classic post-training quantization techniques applied to Qwen3, spanning bit-widths from 1 to 8 bits, and evaluate their effectiveness across multiple datasets. Our findings reveal that while Qwen3 maintains competitive performance at moderate bit-widths, it experiences notable degradation in linguistic tasks under ultra-low precision, underscoring the persistent hurdles in LLM compression. These results emphasize the need for further research to mitigate performance loss in extreme quantization scenarios. We anticipate that this empirical analysis will provide actionable insights for advancing quantization methods tailored to Qwen3 and future LLMs, ultimately enhancing their practicality without compromising accuracy. Our project is released on https://github.com/Efficient-ML/Qwen3-Quantization and https://huggingface.co/collections/Efficient-ML/qwen3-quantization-68164450decb1c868788cb2b.

We introduce a full-stack framework that scales up reasoning in vision-language models (VLMs) to long videos, leveraging reinforcement learning. We address the unique challenges of long video reasoning by integrating three critical components: (1) a large-scale dataset, LongVideo-Reason, comprising 52K long video QA pairs with high-quality reasoning annotations across diverse domains such as sports, games, and vlogs; (2) a two-stage training pipeline that extends VLMs with chain-of-thought supervised fine-tuning (CoT-SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL); and (3) a training infrastructure for long video RL, named Multi-modal Reinforcement Sequence Parallelism (MR-SP), which incorporates sequence parallelism and a vLLM-based engine tailored for long video, using cached video embeddings for efficient rollout and prefilling. In experiments, LongVILA-R1-7B achieves strong performance on long video QA benchmarks such as VideoMME. It also outperforms Video-R1-7B and even matches Gemini-1.5-Pro across temporal reasoning, goal and purpose reasoning, spatial reasoning, and plot reasoning on our LongVideo-Reason-eval benchmark. Notably, our MR-SP system achieves up to 2.1x speedup on long video RL training. LongVILA-R1 demonstrates consistent performance gains as the number of input video frames scales. LongVILA-R1 marks a firm step towards long video reasoning in VLMs. In addition, we release our training system for public availability that supports RL training on various modalities (video, text, and audio), various models (VILA and Qwen series), and even image and video generation models. On a single A100 node (8 GPUs), it supports RL training on hour-long videos (e.g., 3,600 frames / around 256k tokens).

In this paper, we investigate the distillation of time series reasoning capabilities into small, instruction-tuned language models as a step toward building interpretable time series foundation models. Leveraging a synthetic dataset of mean-reverting time series with systematically varied trends and noise levels, we generate natural language annotations using a large multimodal model and use these to supervise the fine-tuning of compact Qwen models. We introduce evaluation metrics that assess the quality of the distilled reasoning - focusing on trend direction, noise intensity, and extremum localization - and show that the post-trained models acquire meaningful interpretive capabilities. Our results highlight the feasibility of compressing time series understanding into lightweight, language-capable models suitable for on-device or privacy-sensitive deployment. This work contributes a concrete foundation toward developing small, interpretable models that explain temporal patterns in natural language.

We introduce the Qwen-VL series, a set of large-scale vision-language models designed to perceive and understand both text and images. Comprising Qwen-VL and Qwen-VL-Chat, these models exhibit remarkable performance in tasks like image captioning, question answering, visual localization, and flexible interaction. The evaluation covers a wide range of tasks including zero-shot captioning, visual or document visual question answering, and grounding. We demonstrate the Qwen-VL outperforms existing Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs). We present their architecture, training, capabilities, and performance, highlighting their contributions to advancing multimodal artificial intelligence. Code, demo and models are available at https://github.com/QwenLM/Qwen-VL.

Visual Language Models (VLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities in processing multimodal inputs, yet applications such as visual agents, which require handling multiple images and high-resolution videos, demand enhanced long-range modeling. Moreover, existing open-source VLMs lack systematic exploration into extending their context length, and commercial models often provide limited details. To tackle this, we aim to establish an effective solution that enhances long context performance of VLMs while preserving their capacities in short context scenarios. Towards this goal, we make the best design choice through extensive experiment settings from data curation to context window extending and utilizing: (1) we analyze data sources and length distributions to construct ETVLM - a data recipe to balance the performance across scenarios; (2) we examine existing position extending methods, identify their limitations and propose M-RoPE++ as an enhanced approach; we also choose to solely instruction-tune the backbone with mixed-source data; (3) we discuss how to better utilize extended context windows and propose hybrid-resolution training. Built on the Qwen-VL series model, we propose Giraffe, which is effectively extended to 128K lengths. Evaluated on extensive long context VLM benchmarks such as VideoMME and Viusal Haystacks, our Giraffe achieves state-of-the-art performance among similarly sized open-source long VLMs and is competitive with commercial model GPT-4V. We will open-source the code, data, and models.

As is known, hybrid quadratic and subquadratic attention models in multi-head architectures have surpassed both Transformer and Linear RNN models , with these works primarily focusing on reducing KV complexity and improving efficiency. For further research on expressiveness, we introduce our series of models distilled from Qwen 2.5, based on pure native RWKV-7 attention, which aims to make RNN more expressive and demonstrates state tracking ability beyond transformers. We work with QRWK 32B based on RWKV-6 architecture, another approach that reduces the entire knowledge processing time to just 8 hours using 16 AMD MI300X GPUs while maintaining Qwen 2.5's performance. In fact, the distillation process can utilize any LLM, not just Qwen, and enables knowledge transfer from larger LLMs to smaller ones with more fewer tokens. We will explain the detailed process and share our insights on building more powerful foundation models. Please note that this is an ongoing work that will be updated continuously. The model checkpoints and source code are available at https://github.com/yynil/RWKVInside{https://github.com/yynil/RWKVInside}, https://huggingface.co/RWKV-Red-Team/ARWKV-7B-Preview-0.1{https://huggingface.co/RWKV-Red-Team/ARWKV-7B-Preview-0.1}.

Even though large language models are becoming increasingly capable, it is still unreasonable to expect them to excel at tasks that are under-represented on the Internet. Leveraging LLMs for specialized applications, particularly in niche programming languages and private domains, remains challenging and largely unsolved. In this work, we address this gap by presenting a comprehensive, open-source approach for adapting LLMs to the Q programming language, a popular tool in quantitative finance that is much less present on the Internet compared to Python, C, Java, and other ``mainstream" languages and is therefore not a strong suit of general-purpose AI models. We introduce a new Leetcode style evaluation dataset for Q, benchmark major frontier models on the dataset, then do pretraining, supervised fine tuning, and reinforcement learning to train a suite of reasoning and non-reasoning models based on the Qwen-2.5 series, spanning five parameter sizes (1.5B, 3B, 7B, 14B, 32B). Our best model achieves a pass@1 accuracy of 59 percent on our Q benchmark, surpassing the best-performing frontier model, Claude Opus-4 by 29.5 percent. Additionally, all models, even our 1.5B model, outperform GPT-4.1 on this task. In addition to releasing models, code, and data, we provide a detailed blueprint for dataset construction, model pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning. Our methodology is broadly applicable, and we discuss how these techniques can be extended to other tasks, including those where evaluation may rely on soft or subjective signals.

Modern Large Language Models, such as the LLaMA, Qwen and DeepSeek series, predominantly adopt the Pre-LayerNorm (Pre-LN) Transformer architecture. While being stable during pretraining and scalable to large model sizes, Pre-LN suffers from an exponential growth in activation variance across layers, causing the residual path to dominate over sub-layer outputs and limiting the learning capacity of deeper layers. To mitigate this issue, we propose Gradient-Preserving Activation Scaling (GPAS), a simple technique that can be used in combination with existing approaches. GPAS works by scaling down the intermediate activations while keeping their gradients unchanged. This leaves information in the activations intact, and avoids the gradient vanishing problem associated with gradient downscaling. Extensive experiments across various model sizes from 71M to 1B show that GPAS achieves consistent performance gains. Beyond enhancing Pre-LN Transformers, GPAS also shows promise in improving alternative architectures such as Sandwich-LN and DeepNorm, demonstrating its versatility and potential for improving training dynamics in a wide range of settings.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of artificial intelligence, enabling natural language processing tasks that were previously thought to be exclusive to humans. In this work, we introduce Qwen, the first installment of our large language model series. Qwen is a comprehensive language model series that encompasses distinct models with varying parameter counts. It includes Qwen, the base pretrained language models, and Qwen-Chat, the chat models finetuned with human alignment techniques. The base language models consistently demonstrate superior performance across a multitude of downstream tasks, and the chat models, particularly those trained using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), are highly competitive. The chat models possess advanced tool-use and planning capabilities for creating agent applications, showcasing impressive performance even when compared to bigger models on complex tasks like utilizing a code interpreter. Furthermore, we have developed coding-specialized models, Code-Qwen and Code-Qwen-Chat, as well as mathematics-focused models, Math-Qwen-Chat, which are built upon base language models. These models demonstrate significantly improved performance in comparison with open-source models, and slightly fall behind the proprietary models.

Time series data are foundational in finance, healthcare, and energy domains. However, most existing methods and datasets remain focused on a narrow spectrum of tasks, such as forecasting or anomaly detection. To bridge this gap, we introduce Time Series Multi-Task Question Answering (Time-MQA), a unified framework that enables natural language queries across multiple time series tasks - numerical analytical tasks and open-ended question answering with reasoning. Central to Time-MQA is the TSQA dataset, a large-scale dataset containing sim200k question-answer pairs derived from diverse time series spanning environment, traffic, etc. This comprehensive resource covers various time series lengths and promotes robust model development. We further demonstrate how continually pre-training large language models (Mistral 7B, Llama-3 8B, and Qwen-2.5 7B) on the TSQA dataset enhanced time series reasoning capabilities, moving beyond mere numeric tasks and enabling more advanced and intuitive interactions with temporal data. The complete TSQA dataset, models, executable codes, user study questionnaires for evaluation, and results have all been open-sourced.

In this report, we introduce Qwen2.5, a comprehensive series of large language models (LLMs) designed to meet diverse needs. Compared to previous iterations, Qwen 2.5 has been significantly improved during both the pre-training and post-training stages. In terms of pre-training, we have scaled the high-quality pre-training datasets from the previous 7 trillion tokens to 18 trillion tokens. This provides a strong foundation for common sense, expert knowledge, and reasoning capabilities. In terms of post-training, we implement intricate supervised finetuning with over 1 million samples, as well as multistage reinforcement learning. Post-training techniques enhance human preference, and notably improve long text generation, structural data analysis, and instruction following. To handle diverse and varied use cases effectively, we present Qwen2.5 LLM series in rich sizes. Open-weight offerings include base and instruction-tuned models, with quantized versions available. In addition, for hosted solutions, the proprietary models currently include two mixture-of-experts (MoE) variants: Qwen2.5-Turbo and Qwen2.5-Plus, both available from Alibaba Cloud Model Studio. Qwen2.5 has demonstrated top-tier performance on a wide range of benchmarks evaluating language understanding, reasoning, mathematics, coding, human preference alignment, etc. Specifically, the open-weight flagship Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct outperforms a number of open and proprietary models and demonstrates competitive performance to the state-of-the-art open-weight model, Llama-3-405B-Instruct, which is around 5 times larger. Qwen2.5-Turbo and Qwen2.5-Plus offer superior cost-effectiveness while performing competitively against GPT-4o-mini and GPT-4o respectively. Additionally, as the foundation, Qwen2.5 models have been instrumental in training specialized models such as Qwen2.5-Math, Qwen2.5-Coder, QwQ, and multimodal models.

Large language models have recently evolved from fluent text generation to advanced reasoning across diverse domains, giving rise to reasoning language models. Among these domains, mathematical reasoning serves as a representative benchmark as it requires precise multi-step logic and abstract reasoning, which can be generalized to other tasks. While closed-source RLMs such as GPT-o3 demonstrate impressive reasoning capabilities, their proprietary nature limits transparency and reproducibility. Although many open-source projects aim to close this gap, most of them lack sufficient openness by omitting critical resources such as datasets and detailed training configurations, which hinders reproducibility. To contribute toward greater transparency in RLM development, we introduce the MiroMind-M1 series, a set of fully open-source RLMs built on the Qwen-2.5 backbone that match or exceed the performance of existing open-source RLMs. Specifically, our models are trained in two stages: SFT on a carefully curated corpus of 719K math-reasoning problems with verified CoT trajectories, followed by RLVR on 62K challenging and verifiable problems. To enhance the robustness and efficiency of the RLVR process, we introduce Context-Aware Multi-Stage Policy Optimization, an algorithm that integrates length-progressive training with an adaptive repetition penalty to encourage context-aware RL training. Our model achieves state-of-the-art or competitive performance and superior token efficiency among Qwen-2.5-based open-source 7B and 32B models on the AIME24, AIME25, and MATH benchmarks. To facilitate reproducibility, we release the complete stack: models (MiroMind-M1-SFT-7B, MiroMind-M1-RL-7B, MiroMind-M1-RL-32B); datasets (MiroMind-M1-SFT-719K, MiroMind-M1-RL-62K); and all training and evaluation configurations. We hope these resources will support further research and foster community advancement.

We present the Qwen2-VL Series, an advanced upgrade of the previous Qwen-VL models that redefines the conventional predetermined-resolution approach in visual processing. Qwen2-VL introduces the Naive Dynamic Resolution mechanism, which enables the model to dynamically process images of varying resolutions into different numbers of visual tokens. This approach allows the model to generate more efficient and accurate visual representations, closely aligning with human perceptual processes. The model also integrates Multimodal Rotary Position Embedding (M-RoPE), facilitating the effective fusion of positional information across text, images, and videos. We employ a unified paradigm for processing both images and videos, enhancing the model's visual perception capabilities. To explore the potential of large multimodal models, Qwen2-VL investigates the scaling laws for large vision-language models (LVLMs). By scaling both the model size-with versions at 2B, 8B, and 72B parameters-and the amount of training data, the Qwen2-VL Series achieves highly competitive performance. Notably, the Qwen2-VL-72B model achieves results comparable to leading models such as GPT-4o and Claude3.5-Sonnet across various multimodal benchmarks, outperforming other generalist models. Code is available at https://github.com/QwenLM/Qwen2-VL.

Speculative decoding generally dictates having a small, efficient draft model that is either pretrained or distilled offline to a particular target model series, for instance, Llama or Qwen models. However, within online deployment settings, there are two major challenges: 1) usage of a target model that is incompatible with the draft model; 2) expectation of latency improvements over usage and time. In this work, we propose OmniDraft, a unified framework that enables a single draft model to operate with any target model and adapt dynamically to user data. We introduce an online n-gram cache with hybrid distillation fine-tuning to address the cross-vocabulary mismatch across draft and target models; and further improve decoding speed by leveraging adaptive drafting techniques. OmniDraft is particularly suitable for on-device LLM applications where model cost, efficiency and user customization are the major points of contention. This further highlights the need to tackle the above challenges and motivates the ``one drafter for all'' paradigm. We showcase the proficiency of the OmniDraft framework by performing online learning on math reasoning, coding and text generation tasks. Notably, OmniDraft enables a single Llama-68M model to pair with various target models including Vicuna-7B, Qwen2-7B and Llama3-8B models for speculative decoding; and additionally provides up to 1.5-2x speedup.

We present Qwen-Image, an image generation foundation model in the Qwen series that achieves significant advances in complex text rendering and precise image editing. To address the challenges of complex text rendering, we design a comprehensive data pipeline that includes large-scale data collection, filtering, annotation, synthesis, and balancing. Moreover, we adopt a progressive training strategy that starts with non-text-to-text rendering, evolves from simple to complex textual inputs, and gradually scales up to paragraph-level descriptions. This curriculum learning approach substantially enhances the model's native text rendering capabilities. As a result, Qwen-Image not only performs exceptionally well in alphabetic languages such as English, but also achieves remarkable progress on more challenging logographic languages like Chinese. To enhance image editing consistency, we introduce an improved multi-task training paradigm that incorporates not only traditional text-to-image (T2I) and text-image-to-image (TI2I) tasks but also image-to-image (I2I) reconstruction, effectively aligning the latent representations between Qwen2.5-VL and MMDiT. Furthermore, we separately feed the original image into Qwen2.5-VL and the VAE encoder to obtain semantic and reconstructive representations, respectively. This dual-encoding mechanism enables the editing module to strike a balance between preserving semantic consistency and maintaining visual fidelity. Qwen-Image achieves state-of-the-art performance, demonstrating its strong capabilities in both image generation and editing across multiple benchmarks.

In this report, we introduce the Qwen2.5-Coder series, a significant upgrade from its predecessor, CodeQwen1.5. This series includes two models: Qwen2.5-Coder-1.5B and Qwen2.5-Coder-7B. As a code-specific model, Qwen2.5-Coder is built upon the Qwen2.5 architecture and continues pretrained on a vast corpus of over 5.5 trillion tokens. Through meticulous data cleaning, scalable synthetic data generation, and balanced data mixing, Qwen2.5-Coder demonstrates impressive code generation capabilities while retaining general versatility. The model has been evaluated on a wide range of code-related tasks, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across more than 10 benchmarks, including code generation, completion, reasoning, and repair, consistently outperforming larger models of the same model size. We believe that the release of the Qwen2.5-Coder series will not only push the boundaries of research in code intelligence but also, through its permissive licensing, encourage broader adoption by developers in real-world applications.

This technical report presents QwenLong-CPRS, a context compression framework designed for explicit long-context optimization, addressing prohibitive computation overhead during the prefill stage and the "lost in the middle" performance degradation of large language models (LLMs) during long sequence processing. Implemented through a novel dynamic context optimization mechanism, QwenLong-CPRS enables multi-granularity context compression guided by natural language instructions, achieving both efficiency gains and improved performance. Evolved from the Qwen architecture series, QwenLong-CPRS introduces four key innovations: (1) Natural language-guided dynamic optimization, (2) Bidirectional reasoning layers for enhanced boundary awareness, (3) Token critic mechanisms with language modeling heads, and (4) Window-parallel inference. Comprehensive evaluations across five benchmarks (4K-2M word contexts) demonstrate QwenLong-CPRS's threefold effectiveness: (1) Consistent superiority over other context management methods like RAG and sparse attention in both accuracy and efficiency. (2) Architecture-agnostic integration with all flagship LLMs, including GPT-4o, Gemini2.0-pro, Claude3.7-sonnet, DeepSeek-v3, and Qwen2.5-max, achieves 21.59times context compression alongside 19.15-point average performance gains; (3) Deployed with Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct, QwenLong-CPRS surpasses leading proprietary LLMs by 4.85 and 10.88 points on Ruler-128K and InfiniteBench, establishing new SOTA performance.

We introduce Qwen2.5-VL, the latest flagship model of Qwen vision-language series, which demonstrates significant advancements in both foundational capabilities and innovative functionalities. Qwen2.5-VL achieves a major leap forward in understanding and interacting with the world through enhanced visual recognition, precise object localization, robust document parsing, and long-video comprehension. A standout feature of Qwen2.5-VL is its ability to localize objects using bounding boxes or points accurately. It provides robust structured data extraction from invoices, forms, and tables, as well as detailed analysis of charts, diagrams, and layouts. To handle complex inputs, Qwen2.5-VL introduces dynamic resolution processing and absolute time encoding, enabling it to process images of varying sizes and videos of extended durations (up to hours) with second-level event localization. This allows the model to natively perceive spatial scales and temporal dynamics without relying on traditional normalization techniques. By training a native dynamic-resolution Vision Transformer (ViT) from scratch and incorporating Window Attention, we reduce computational overhead while maintaining native resolution. As a result, Qwen2.5-VL excels not only in static image and document understanding but also as an interactive visual agent capable of reasoning, tool usage, and task execution in real-world scenarios such as operating computers and mobile devices. Qwen2.5-VL is available in three sizes, addressing diverse use cases from edge AI to high-performance computing. The flagship Qwen2.5-VL-72B model matches state-of-the-art models like GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, particularly excelling in document and diagram understanding. Additionally, Qwen2.5-VL maintains robust linguistic performance, preserving the core language competencies of the Qwen2.5 LLM.

This report introduces the Qwen2 series, the latest addition to our large language models and large multimodal models. We release a comprehensive suite of foundational and instruction-tuned language models, encompassing a parameter range from 0.5 to 72 billion, featuring dense models and a Mixture-of-Experts model. Qwen2 surpasses most prior open-weight models, including its predecessor Qwen1.5, and exhibits competitive performance relative to proprietary models across diverse benchmarks on language understanding, generation, multilingual proficiency, coding, mathematics, and reasoning. The flagship model, Qwen2-72B, showcases remarkable performance: 84.2 on MMLU, 37.9 on GPQA, 64.6 on HumanEval, 89.5 on GSM8K, and 82.4 on BBH as a base language model. The instruction-tuned variant, Qwen2-72B-Instruct, attains 9.1 on MT-Bench, 48.1 on Arena-Hard, and 35.7 on LiveCodeBench. Moreover, Qwen2 demonstrates robust multilingual capabilities, proficient in approximately 30 languages, spanning English, Chinese, Spanish, French, German, Arabic, Russian, Korean, Japanese, Thai, Vietnamese, and more, underscoring its versatility and global reach. To foster community innovation and accessibility, we have made the Qwen2 model weights openly available on Hugging Face1 and ModelScope2, and the supplementary materials including example code on GitHub3. These platforms also include resources for quantization, fine-tuning, and deployment, facilitating a wide range of applications and research endeavors.

The availability of high-quality data is one of the most important factors in improving the reasoning capability of LLMs. Existing works have demonstrated the effectiveness of creating more instruction data from seed questions or knowledge bases. Recent research indicates that continually scaling up data synthesis from strong models (e.g., GPT-4) can further elicit reasoning performance. Though promising, the open-sourced community still lacks high-quality data at scale and scalable data synthesis methods with affordable costs. To address this, we introduce ScaleQuest, a scalable and novel data synthesis method that utilizes "small-size" (e.g., 7B) open-source models to generate questions from scratch without the need for seed data with complex augmentation constraints. With the efficient ScaleQuest, we automatically constructed a mathematical reasoning dataset consisting of 1 million problem-solution pairs, which are more effective than existing open-sourced datasets. It can universally increase the performance of mainstream open-source models (i.e., Mistral, Llama3, DeepSeekMath, and Qwen2-Math) by achieving 29.2% to 46.4% gains on MATH. Notably, simply fine-tuning the Qwen2-Math-7B-Base model with our dataset can even surpass Qwen2-Math-7B-Instruct, a strong and well-aligned model on closed-source data, and proprietary models such as GPT-4-Turbo and Claude-3.5 Sonnet.

In this report, we present a series of math-specific large language models: Qwen2.5-Math and Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct-1.5B/7B/72B. The core innovation of the Qwen2.5 series lies in integrating the philosophy of self-improvement throughout the entire pipeline, from pre-training and post-training to inference: (1) During the pre-training phase, Qwen2-Math-Instruct is utilized to generate large-scale, high-quality mathematical data. (2) In the post-training phase, we develop a reward model (RM) by conducting massive sampling from Qwen2-Math-Instruct. This RM is then applied to the iterative evolution of data in supervised fine-tuning (SFT). With a stronger SFT model, it's possible to iteratively train and update the RM, which in turn guides the next round of SFT data iteration. On the final SFT model, we employ the ultimate RM for reinforcement learning, resulting in the Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct. (3) Furthermore, during the inference stage, the RM is used to guide sampling, optimizing the model's performance. Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct supports both Chinese and English, and possess advanced mathematical reasoning capabilities, including Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR). We evaluate our models on 10 mathematics datasets in both English and Chinese, such as GSM8K, MATH, GaoKao, AMC23, and AIME24, covering a range of difficulties from grade school level to math competition problems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling methods like self-consistency with majority voting. However, this approach often leads to diminishing returns in accuracy and high computational overhead. To address these challenges, we introduce Deep Think with Confidence (DeepConf), a simple yet powerful method that enhances both reasoning efficiency and performance at test time. DeepConf leverages model-internal confidence signals to dynamically filter out low-quality reasoning traces during or after generation. It requires no additional model training or hyperparameter tuning and can be seamlessly integrated into existing serving frameworks. We evaluate DeepConf across a variety of reasoning tasks and the latest open-source models, including Qwen 3 and GPT-OSS series. Notably, on challenging benchmarks such as AIME 2025, DeepConf@512 achieves up to 99.9% accuracy and reduces generated tokens by up to 84.7% compared to full parallel thinking.

This paper introduces Qwen-GUI-3B, a lightweight Vision-Language Model (VLM) specifically designed for Graphical User Interface grounding tasks, achieving performance competitive with significantly larger models. Unlike large-scale VLMs (>7B parameters) that are computationally intensive and impractical for consumer-grade hardware, Qwen-GUI-3B delivers strong grounding accuracy while being fully trainable on a single GPU (RTX 4090). The model incorporates several key innovations: (i) combine cross-platform, multi-resolution dataset of 24K examples from diverse sources including mobile, desktop, and web GUI screenshots to effectively address data scarcity in high-resolution desktop environments; (ii) a two-stage fine-tuning strategy, where initial cross-platform training establishes robust GUI understanding, followed by specialized fine-tuning on high-resolution data to significantly enhance model adaptability; and (iii) data curation and redundancy reduction strategies, demonstrating that randomly sampling a smaller subset with reduced redundancy achieves performance comparable to larger datasets, emphasizing data diversity over sheer volume. Empirical evaluation on standard GUI grounding benchmarks-including ScreenSpot, ScreenSpot-v2, and the challenging ScreenSpot-Pro, highlights Qwen-GUI-3B's exceptional accuracy, achieving 84.9% on ScreenSpot and 86.4% on ScreenSpot-v2, surpassing prior models under 4B parameters. Ablation studies validate the critical role of balanced sampling and two-stage fine-tuning in enhancing robustness, particularly in high-resolution desktop scenarios. The Qwen-GUI-3B is available at: https://github.com/Han1018/Qwen-GUI-3B

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

We present a comprehensive evaluation of proprietary and open-weights large language models using the first astronomy-specific benchmarking dataset. This dataset comprises 4,425 multiple-choice questions curated from the Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, covering a broad range of astrophysical topics. Our analysis examines model performance across various astronomical subfields and assesses response calibration, crucial for potential deployment in research environments. Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperforms competitors by up to 4.6 percentage points, achieving 85.0% accuracy. For proprietary models, we observed a universal reduction in cost every 3-to-12 months to achieve similar score in this particular astronomy benchmark. Open-source models have rapidly improved, with LLaMA-3-70b (80.6%) and Qwen-2-72b (77.7%) now competing with some of the best proprietary models. We identify performance variations across topics, with non-English-focused models generally struggling more in exoplanet-related fields, stellar astrophysics, and instrumentation related questions. These challenges likely stem from less abundant training data, limited historical context, and rapid recent developments in these areas. This pattern is observed across both open-weights and proprietary models, with regional dependencies evident, highlighting the impact of training data diversity on model performance in specialized scientific domains. Top-performing models demonstrate well-calibrated confidence, with correlations above 0.9 between confidence and correctness, though they tend to be slightly underconfident. The development for fast, low-cost inference of open-weights models presents new opportunities for affordable deployment in astronomy. The rapid progress observed suggests that LLM-driven research in astronomy may become feasible in the near future.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Advancing code reasoning in large language models (LLMs) is fundamentally limited by the scarcity of high-difficulty datasets, especially those with verifiable input-output test cases necessary for rigorous solution validation at scale. We introduce rStar-Coder, which significantly improves LLM code reasoning capabilities by constructing a large-scale, verified dataset of 418K competition-level code problems, 580K long-reasoning solutions along with rich test cases of varying difficulty. This is achieved through three core contributions: (1) we curate competitive programming code problems and oracle solutions to synthesize new, solvable problems; (2) we introduce a reliable input-output test case synthesis pipeline that decouples the generation into a three-step input generation method and a mutual verification mechanism for effective output labeling; (3) we augment problems with high-quality, test-case-verified long-reasoning solutions. Extensive experiments on Qwen models (1.5B-14B) across various code reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of rStar-Coder dataset, achieving leading performance comparable to frontier reasoning LLMs with much smaller model sizes. On LiveCodeBench, rStar-Coder improves Qwen2.5-7B from 17.4% to an impressive 57.3%, and Qwen2.5-14B from 23.3% to 62.5%, surpassing o3-mini (low) by3.1%. On the more challenging USA Computing Olympiad, our 7B model achieves an average pass@1 accuracy of 16.15%, outperforming the frontier-level QWQ-32B. Code and the dataset will be released at https://github.com/microsoft/rStar.

Recent advances in model distillation demonstrate that data from advanced reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek-R1, OpenAI's o1) can effectively transfer complex reasoning abilities to smaller, efficient student models. However, standard practices employ rejection sampling, discarding incorrect reasoning examples -- valuable, yet often underutilized data. This paper addresses the critical question: How can both positive and negative distilled reasoning traces be effectively leveraged to maximize LLM reasoning performance in an offline setting? To this end, We propose Reinforcement Distillation (REDI), a two-stage framework. Stage 1 learns from positive traces via Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). Stage 2 further refines the model using both positive and negative traces through our proposed REDI objective. This novel objective is a simple, reference-free loss function that outperforms established methods like DPO and SimPO in this distillation context. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate REDI's superiority over baseline Rejection Sampling SFT or SFT combined with DPO/SimPO on mathematical reasoning tasks. Notably, the Qwen-REDI-1.5B model, post-trained on just 131k positive and negative examples from the open Open-R1 dataset, achieves an 83.1% score on MATH-500 (pass@1). Its performance matches or surpasses that of DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B (a model post-trained on 800k proprietary data) across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks, establishing a new state-of-the-art for 1.5B models post-trained offline with openly available data.

Quantum Machine Learning (QML) has surfaced as a pioneering framework addressing sequential control tasks and time-series modeling. It has demonstrated empirical quantum advantages notably within domains such as Reinforcement Learning (RL) and time-series prediction. A significant advancement lies in Quantum Recurrent Neural Networks (QRNNs), specifically tailored for memory-intensive tasks encompassing partially observable environments and non-linear time-series prediction. Nevertheless, QRNN-based models encounter challenges, notably prolonged training duration stemming from the necessity to compute quantum gradients using backpropagation-through-time (BPTT). This predicament exacerbates when executing the complete model on quantum devices, primarily due to the substantial demand for circuit evaluation arising from the parameter-shift rule. This paper introduces the Quantum Fast Weight Programmers (QFWP) as a solution to the temporal or sequential learning challenge. The QFWP leverages a classical neural network (referred to as the 'slow programmer') functioning as a quantum programmer to swiftly modify the parameters of a variational quantum circuit (termed the 'fast programmer'). Instead of completely overwriting the fast programmer at each time-step, the slow programmer generates parameter changes or updates for the quantum circuit parameters. This approach enables the fast programmer to incorporate past observations or information. Notably, the proposed QFWP model achieves learning of temporal dependencies without necessitating the use of quantum recurrent neural networks. Numerical simulations conducted in this study showcase the efficacy of the proposed QFWP model in both time-series prediction and RL tasks. The model exhibits performance levels either comparable to or surpassing those achieved by QLSTM-based models.

We present OLMo 2, the next generation of our fully open language models. OLMo 2 includes dense autoregressive models with improved architecture and training recipe, pretraining data mixtures, and instruction tuning recipes. Our modified model architecture and training recipe achieve both better training stability and improved per-token efficiency. Our updated pretraining data mixture introduces a new, specialized data mix called Dolmino Mix 1124, which significantly improves model capabilities across many downstream task benchmarks when introduced via late-stage curriculum training (i.e. specialized data during the annealing phase of pretraining). Finally, we incorporate best practices from T\"ulu 3 to develop OLMo 2-Instruct, focusing on permissive data and extending our final-stage reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). Our OLMo 2 base models sit at the Pareto frontier of performance to compute, often matching or outperforming open-weight only models like Llama 3.1 and Qwen 2.5 while using fewer FLOPs and with fully transparent training data, code, and recipe. Our fully open OLMo 2-Instruct models are competitive with or surpassing open-weight only models of comparable size, including Qwen 2.5, Llama 3.1 and Gemma 2. We release all OLMo 2 artifacts openly -- models at 7B and 13B scales, both pretrained and post-trained, including their full training data, training code and recipes, training logs and thousands of intermediate checkpoints. The final instruction model is available on the Ai2 Playground as a free research demo.

Large Language Models (LLMs) with long chain-of-thought (CoT) capability, termed Reasoning Models, demonstrate superior intricate problem-solving abilities through multi-step long CoT reasoning. To create a dual-capability model with long CoT capability and domain-specific knowledge without substantial computational and data costs, model merging emerges as a highly resource-efficient method. However, significant challenges lie in merging domain-specific LLMs with long CoT ones since nowadays merging methods suffer from reasoning capability degradation, even gibberish output and output collapse. To overcome this, we introduce RCP-Merging: Merging Long Chain-of-Thought Models with Domain-Specific Models by Considering Reasoning Capability as Prior, a novel merging framework designed to integrate domain-specific LLMs with long CoT capability, meanwhile maintaining model performance in the original domain. Treating reasoning model weights as foundational prior, our method utilizes a reasoning capability indicator to preserve core long CoT capability model weights while selectively merging essential domain-specific weights. We conducted extensive experiments on Qwen2.5-7B, Llama3.1-8B, and Qwen2.5-1.5B models in BioMedicine and Finance domains. Our results show that RCP-Merging successfully merges a reasoning model with domain-specific ones, improving domain task performance by 9.5% and 9.2% over state-of-the-art methods, without significantly harming the original long CoT reasoning capability.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

We propose (G)I-DLE, a new approach to constrained decoding that leverages KL divergence minimization to preserve the intrinsic conditional probability distribution of autoregressive language models while excluding undesirable tokens. Unlike conventional methods that naively set banned tokens' logits to -infty, which can distort the conversion from raw logits to posterior probabilities and increase output variance, (G)I-DLE re-normalizes the allowed token probabilities to minimize such distortion. We validate our method on the K2-Eval dataset, specifically designed to assess Korean language fluency, logical reasoning, and cultural appropriateness. Experimental results on Qwen2.5 models (ranging from 1.5B to 14B) demonstrate that G-IDLE not only boosts mean evaluation scores but also substantially reduces the variance of output quality.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

The reproduction of state-of-the-art multimodal LLM pre-training faces barriers at every stage of the pipeline, including high-quality data filtering, multimodal data mixture strategies, sequence packing techniques, and training frameworks. We introduce Open-Qwen2VL, a fully open-source 2B-parameter Multimodal Large Language Model pre-trained efficiently on 29M image-text pairs using only 442 A100-40G GPU hours. Our approach employs low-to-high dynamic image resolution and multimodal sequence packing to significantly enhance pre-training efficiency. The training dataset was carefully curated using both MLLM-based filtering techniques (e.g., MLM-Filter) and conventional CLIP-based filtering methods, substantially improving data quality and training efficiency. The Open-Qwen2VL pre-training is conducted on academic level 8xA100-40G GPUs at UCSB on 5B packed multimodal tokens, which is 0.36\% of 1.4T multimodal pre-training tokens of Qwen2-VL. The final instruction-tuned Open-Qwen2VL outperforms partially-open state-of-the-art MLLM Qwen2-VL-2B on various multimodal benchmarks of MMBench, SEEDBench, MMstar, and MathVista, indicating the remarkable training efficiency of Open-Qwen2VL. We open-source all aspects of our work, including compute-efficient and data-efficient training details, data filtering methods, sequence packing scripts, pre-training data in WebDataset format, FSDP-based training codebase, and both base and instruction-tuned model checkpoints. We redefine "fully open" for multimodal LLMs as the complete release of: 1) the training codebase, 2) detailed data filtering techniques, and 3) all pre-training and supervised fine-tuning data used to develop the model.

Quantizing large language models has become a standard way to reduce their memory and computational costs. Typically, existing methods focus on breaking down the problem into individual layer-wise sub-problems, and minimizing per-layer error, measured via various metrics. Yet, this approach currently lacks theoretical justification and the metrics employed may be sub-optimal. In this paper, we present a "linearity theorem" establishing a direct relationship between the layer-wise ell_2 reconstruction error and the model perplexity increase due to quantization. This insight enables two novel applications: (1) a simple data-free LLM quantization method using Hadamard rotations and MSE-optimal grids, dubbed HIGGS, which outperforms all prior data-free approaches such as the extremely popular NF4 quantized format, and (2) an optimal solution to the problem of finding non-uniform per-layer quantization levels which match a given compression constraint in the medium-bitwidth regime, obtained by reduction to dynamic programming. On the practical side, we demonstrate improved accuracy-compression trade-offs on Llama-3.1 and 3.2-family models, as well as on Qwen-family models. Further, we show that our method can be efficiently supported in terms of GPU kernels at various batch sizes, advancing both data-free and non-uniform quantization for LLMs.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked Encoder-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, model weights, and data will be released.

We present EXAONE Deep series, which exhibits superior capabilities in various reasoning tasks, including math and coding benchmarks. We train our models mainly on the reasoning-specialized dataset that incorporates long streams of thought processes. Evaluation results show that our smaller models, EXAONE Deep 2.4B and 7.8B, outperform other models of comparable size, while the largest model, EXAONE Deep 32B, demonstrates competitive performance against leading open-weight models. All EXAONE Deep models are openly available for research purposes and can be downloaded from https://huggingface.co/LGAI-EXAONE

Neural Machine Translation (NMT) driven by Transformer architectures has advanced significantly, yet faces challenges with low-resource language pairs like Vietnamese-Japanese (Vi-Ja). Issues include sparse parallel data and handling linguistic/cultural nuances. Recent progress in Large Language Models (LLMs) with strong reasoning, often refined via Reinforcement Learning (RL), enables high-quality synthetic data generation. We introduce VNJPTranslate, a pipeline designed to systematically address the Vi-Ja translation task. It features a targeted data augmentation strategy using advanced LLMs with Chain-of-Thought prompting for challenging segments identified via corpus analysis. Subsequently, we employ efficient fine-tuning techniques (Unsloth with QLoRA) on a capable, low-parameter autoregressive model (specifically, a fine-tuned version of the 1.8B parameter Sailor model, which is based on the Qwen architecture) to create a practical and high-performing translation system. This integrated approach aims to improve Vi-Ja translation quality significantly over existing baselines.

Test-time scaling is a promising new approach to language modeling that uses extra test-time compute to improve performance. Recently, OpenAI's o1 model showed this capability but did not publicly share its methodology, leading to many replication efforts. We seek the simplest approach to achieve test-time scaling and strong reasoning performance. First, we curate a small dataset s1K of 1,000 questions paired with reasoning traces relying on three criteria we validate through ablations: difficulty, diversity, and quality. Second, we develop budget forcing to control test-time compute by forcefully terminating the model's thinking process or lengthening it by appending "Wait" multiple times to the model's generation when it tries to end. This can lead the model to double-check its answer, often fixing incorrect reasoning steps. After supervised finetuning the Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct language model on s1K and equipping it with budget forcing, our model s1 exceeds o1-preview on competition math questions by up to 27% (MATH and AIME24). Further, scaling s1 with budget forcing allows extrapolating beyond its performance without test-time intervention: from 50% to 57% on AIME24. Our model, data, and code are open-source at https://github.com/simplescaling/s1.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

Gravitational-wave approximants are essential for gravitational-wave astronomy, allowing the coverage binary black hole parameter space for inference or match filtering without costly numerical relativity (NR) simulations, but generally trading some accuracy for computational efficiency. To reduce this trade-off, NR surrogate models can be constructed using interpolation within NR waveform space. We present a 2-stage training approach for neural network-based NR surrogate models. Initially trained on approximant-generated waveforms and then fine-tuned with NR data, these dual-stage artificial neural surrogate (DANSur) models offer rapid and competitively accurate waveform generation, generating millions in under 20ms on a GPU while keeping mean mismatches with NR around 10^{-4}. Implemented in the bilby framework, we show they can be used for parameter estimation tasks.

Recent works improving LLM math reasoning with synthetic data have used unique setups, making comparison of data synthesis strategies impractical. This leaves many unanswered questions about the roles of different factors in the synthetic data pipeline, such as the impact of filtering low-quality problems. To address this gap, we introduce FLAMES, a Framework for LLM Assessment of Math rEasoning Data Synthesis, and perform a systematic study of 10 existing data synthesis strategies and multiple other factors impacting the performance of synthetic math reasoning data. Our FLAMES experiments provide several valuable insights about the optimal balance of difficulty and diversity of synthetic data. First, data agents designed to increase problem complexity lead to best improvements on most math metrics. Second, with a fixed data generation budget, keeping higher problem coverage is more important than keeping only problems with reliable solutions. Third, GSM8K- and MATH-based synthetic data can lead to improvements on competition-level benchmarks, showcasing easy-to-hard generalization. Leveraging insights from our FLAMES experiments, we design two novel data synthesis strategies for improving out-of-domain generalization and robustness. Further, we develop the FLAMES dataset, an effective blend of our novel and existing data synthesis strategies, outperforming public datasets on OlympiadBench (+15.7), CollegeMath (+4.5), GSMPlus (+6.5), and MATH (+3.1). Fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B on the FLAMES dataset achieves 81.4% on MATH, surpassing larger Llama3 405B, GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet.

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a novel scaling effect: longer outputs significantly enhance model accuracy due to delayed chain-of-thought reasoning in our non-causal approach. YingLong is a non-causal, bidirectional attention encoder-only transformer trained through masked token recovery, aligning more effectively with language understanding tasks than with generation tasks. Additionally, we boost performance by tackling output variance with a multi-input ensemble. We release four foundation models ranging from 6M to 300M parameters, demonstrating superior results in zero-shot tasks on the ETT and Weather datasets. YingLong achieves more than 60% best performance. To ensure generalizability, we assessed the models using the GIFT-Eval benchmark, which comprises 23 time series datasets across 7 domains. Yinglong significantly outperformed the best time-series foundation models, end-to-end trained models by 14% and 44% in rank respectively.The pretrained 300M model is available at https://huggingface.co/qcw1314/YingLong_300m

We explore the use of quantum generative adversarial networks QGANs for modeling eye movement velocity data. We assess whether the advanced computational capabilities of QGANs can enhance the modeling of complex stochastic distribution beyond the traditional mathematical models, particularly the Markov model. The findings indicate that while QGANs demonstrate potential in approximating complex distributions, the Markov model consistently outperforms in accurately replicating the real data distribution. This comparison underlines the challenges and avenues for refinement in time series data generation using quantum computing techniques. It emphasizes the need for further optimization of quantum models to better align with real-world data characteristics.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Entropy minimization (EM) trains the model to concentrate even more probability mass on its most confident outputs. We show that this simple objective alone, without any labeled data, can substantially improve large language models' (LLMs) performance on challenging math, physics, and coding tasks. We explore three approaches: (1) EM-FT minimizes token-level entropy similarly to instruction finetuning, but on unlabeled outputs drawn from the model; (2) EM-RL: reinforcement learning with negative entropy as the only reward to maximize; (3) EM-INF: inference-time logit adjustment to reduce entropy without any training data or parameter updates. On Qwen-7B, EM-RL, without any labeled data, achieves comparable or better performance than strong RL baselines such as GRPO and RLOO that are trained on 60K labeled examples. Furthermore, EM-INF enables Qwen-32B to match or exceed the performance of proprietary models like GPT-4o, Claude 3 Opus, and Gemini 1.5 Pro on the challenging SciCode benchmark, while being 3x more efficient than self-consistency and sequential refinement. Our findings reveal that many pretrained LLMs possess previously underappreciated reasoning capabilities that can be effectively elicited through entropy minimization alone, without any labeled data or even any parameter updates.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Recent advancements in reasoning language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in complex tasks, but their extended chain-of-thought reasoning process increases inference overhead. While quantization has been widely adopted to reduce the inference cost of large language models, its impact on reasoning models remains understudied. In this study, we conduct the first systematic study on quantized reasoning models, evaluating the open-sourced DeepSeek-R1-Distilled Qwen and LLaMA families ranging from 1.5B to 70B parameters, and QwQ-32B. Our investigation covers weight, KV cache, and activation quantization using state-of-the-art algorithms at varying bit-widths, with extensive evaluation across mathematical (AIME, MATH-500), scientific (GPQA), and programming (LiveCodeBench) reasoning benchmarks. Our findings reveal that while lossless quantization can be achieved with W8A8 or W4A16 quantization, lower bit-widths introduce significant accuracy risks. We further identify model size, model origin, and task difficulty as critical determinants of performance. Contrary to expectations, quantized models do not exhibit increased output lengths. In addition, strategically scaling the model sizes or reasoning steps can effectively enhance the performance. All quantized models and codes will be open-sourced in https://github.com/ruikangliu/Quantized-Reasoning-Models.

Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models have emerged as valuable tools for deterministic weather forecasts, providing forecasts with significantly reduced computational requirements and even surpassing the forecast performance of traditional NWP models. However, challenges arise when applying ML models to ensemble forecasting. Recent ML models, such as GenCast and SEEDS model, rely on the ERA5 EDA or operational NWP ensemble members for forecast generation. Their spatial resolution is also considered too coarse for many applications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FuXi-ENS, an advanced ML model designed to deliver 6-hourly global ensemble weather forecasts up to 15 days. This model runs at a significantly increased spatial resolution of 0.25\textdegree, incorporating 5 atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels, along with 13 surface variables. By leveraging the inherent probabilistic nature of Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), FuXi-ENS optimizes a loss function that combines the CRPS and the KL divergence between the predicted and target distribution, facilitating the incorporation of flow-dependent perturbations in both initial conditions and forecast. This innovative approach makes FuXi-ENS an advancement over the traditional ones that use L1 loss combined with the KL loss in standard VAE models for ensemble weather forecasting. Results demonstrate that FuXi-ENS outperforms ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, a world leading NWP model, in the CRPS of 98.1% of 360 variable and forecast lead time combinations. This achievement underscores the potential of the FuXi-ENS model to enhance ensemble weather forecasts, offering a promising direction for further development in this field.

Wheat management strategies play a critical role in determining yield. Traditional management decisions often rely on labour-intensive expert inspections, which are expensive, subjective and difficult to scale. Recently, Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have emerged as a promising solution to enable scalable, data-driven management support. However, due to a lack of domain-specific knowledge, directly applying VLMs to wheat management tasks results in poor quantification and reasoning capabilities, ultimately producing vague or even misleading management recommendations. In response, we propose WisWheat, a wheat-specific dataset with a three-layered design to enhance VLM performance on wheat management tasks: (1) a foundational pretraining dataset of 47,871 image-caption pairs for coarsely adapting VLMs to wheat morphology; (2) a quantitative dataset comprising 7,263 VQA-style image-question-answer triplets for quantitative trait measuring tasks; and (3) an Instruction Fine-tuning dataset with 4,888 samples targeting biotic and abiotic stress diagnosis and management plan for different phenological stages. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that fine-tuning open-source VLMs (e.g., Qwen2.5 7B) on our dataset leads to significant performance improvements. Specifically, the Qwen2.5 VL 7B fine-tuned on our wheat instruction dataset achieves accuracy scores of 79.2% and 84.6% on wheat stress and growth stage conversation tasks respectively, surpassing even general-purpose commercial models such as GPT-4o by a margin of 11.9% and 34.6%.

Time series models face significant challenges in scaling to handle large and complex datasets, akin to the scaling achieved by large language models (LLMs). The unique characteristics of time series data and the computational demands of model scaling necessitate innovative approaches. While researchers have explored various architectures such as Transformers, LSTMs, and GRUs to address these challenges, we propose a novel solution using RWKV-7, which incorporates meta-learning into its state update mechanism. By integrating RWKV-7's time mix and channel mix components into the transformer-based time series model Timer, we achieve a substantial performance improvement of approximately 1.13 to 43.3x and a 4.5x reduction in training time with 1/23 parameters, all while utilizing fewer parameters. Our code and model weights are publicly available for further research and development at https://github.com/Alic-Li/BlackGoose_Rimer.

Recent advancements in code large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code generation and understanding. It is still challenging to build a code LLM with comprehensive performance yet ultimate efficiency. Many attempts have been released in the open source community to break the trade-off between performance and efficiency, such as the Qwen Coder series and the DeepSeek Coder series. This paper introduces yet another attempt in this area, namely Ling-Coder-Lite. We leverage the efficient Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture along with a set of high-quality data curation methods (especially those based on program analytics) to build an efficient yet powerful code LLM. Ling-Coder-Lite exhibits on-par performance on 12 representative coding benchmarks compared to state-of-the-art models of similar size, such as Qwen2.5-Coder-7B and DeepSeek-Coder-V2-Lite, while offering competitive latency and throughput. In practice, we achieve a 50\% reduction in deployment resources compared to the similar-sized dense model without performance loss. To facilitate further research and development in this area, we open-source our models as well as a substantial portion of high-quality data for the annealing and post-training stages. The models and data can be accessed at~https://huggingface.co/inclusionAI/Ling-Coder-lite.

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

In this report, we present the third technical report on the development of slow-thinking models as part of the STILL project. As the technical pathway becomes clearer, scaling RL training has become a central technique for implementing such reasoning models. We systematically experiment with and document the effects of various factors influencing RL training, conducting experiments on both base models and fine-tuned models. Specifically, we demonstrate that our RL training approach consistently improves the Qwen2.5-32B base models, enhancing both response length and test accuracy. Furthermore, we show that even when a model like DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B has already achieved a high performance level, it can be further refined through RL training, reaching an accuracy of 39.33% on AIME 2024. Beyond RL training, we also explore the use of tool manipulation, finding that it significantly boosts the reasoning performance of large reasoning models. This approach achieves a remarkable accuracy of 86.67% with greedy search on AIME 2024, underscoring its effectiveness in enhancing model capabilities. We release our resources at the STILL project website: https://github.com/RUCAIBox/Slow_Thinking_with_LLMs.

Despite the success of neural networks (NNs), there is still a concern among many over their "black box" nature. Why do they work? Here we present a simple analytic argument that NNs are in fact essentially polynomial regression models. This view will have various implications for NNs, e.g. providing an explanation for why convergence problems arise in NNs, and it gives rough guidance on avoiding overfitting. In addition, we use this phenomenon to predict and confirm a multicollinearity property of NNs not previously reported in the literature. Most importantly, given this loose correspondence, one may choose to routinely use polynomial models instead of NNs, thus avoiding some major problems of the latter, such as having to set many tuning parameters and dealing with convergence issues. We present a number of empirical results; in each case, the accuracy of the polynomial approach matches or exceeds that of NN approaches. A many-featured, open-source software package, polyreg, is available.

In this study, we apply two pillars of Scientific Machine Learning: Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) and Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) to the Chandrasekhar White Dwarf Equation (CWDE). The CWDE is fundamental for understanding the life cycle of a star, and describes the relationship between the density of the white dwarf and its distance from the center. Despite the rise in Scientific Machine Learning frameworks, very less attention has been paid to the systematic applications of the above SciML pillars on astronomy based ODEs. Through robust modeling in the Julia programming language, we show that both Neural ODEs and UDEs can be used effectively for both prediction as well as forecasting of the CWDE. More importantly, we introduce the forecasting breakdown point - the time at which forecasting fails for both Neural ODEs and UDEs. Through a robust hyperparameter optimization testing, we provide insights on the neural network architecture, activation functions and optimizers which provide the best results. This study provides opens a door to investigate the applicability of Scientific Machine Learning frameworks in forecasting tasks for a wide range of scientific domains.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MoI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MoI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhD-level QA tasks, MoI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen-32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

In this report, we introduce Falcon-H1, a new series of large language models (LLMs) featuring hybrid architecture designs optimized for both high performance and efficiency across diverse use cases. Unlike earlier Falcon models built solely on Transformer or Mamba architectures, Falcon-H1 adopts a parallel hybrid approach that combines Transformer-based attention with State Space Models (SSMs), known for superior long-context memory and computational efficiency. We systematically revisited model design, data strategy, and training dynamics, challenging conventional practices in the field. Falcon-H1 is released in multiple configurations, including base and instruction-tuned variants at 0.5B, 1.5B, 1.5B-deep, 3B, 7B, and 34B parameters. Quantized instruction-tuned models are also available, totaling over 30 checkpoints on Hugging Face Hub. Falcon-H1 models demonstrate state-of-the-art performance and exceptional parameter and training efficiency. The flagship Falcon-H1-34B matches or outperforms models up to 70B scale, such as Qwen3-32B, Qwen2.5-72B, and Llama3.3-70B, while using fewer parameters and less data. Smaller models show similar trends: the Falcon-H1-1.5B-Deep rivals current leading 7B-10B models, and Falcon-H1-0.5B performs comparably to typical 7B models from 2024. These models excel across reasoning, mathematics, multilingual tasks, instruction following, and scientific knowledge. With support for up to 256K context tokens and 18 languages, Falcon-H1 is suitable for a wide range of applications. All models are released under a permissive open-source license, underscoring our commitment to accessible and impactful AI research.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estimate the probability of weather events by representing the sources of uncertainties and accounting for the day-to-day variability of error growth in the atmosphere. This paper presents a novel approach to obtain a weather forecast model for ensemble forecasting with machine-learning. AIFS-CRPS is a variant of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) developed at ECMWF. Its loss function is based on a proper score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). For the loss, the almost fair CRPS is introduced because it approximately removes the bias in the score due to finite ensemble size yet avoids a degeneracy of the fair CRPS. The trained model is stochastic and can generate as many exchangeable members as desired and computationally feasible in inference. For medium-range forecasts AIFS-CRPS outperforms the physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble for the majority of variables and lead times. For subseasonal forecasts, AIFS-CRPS outperforms the IFS ensemble before calibration and is competitive with the IFS ensemble when forecasts are evaluated as anomalies to remove the influence of model biases.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Tool-integrated reasoning (TIR) augments large language models (LLMs) with the ability to invoke external tools, such as search engines and code interpreters, to solve tasks beyond the capabilities of language-only reasoning. While reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in improving TIR by optimizing final answer correctness, existing approaches often overlook the efficiency and cost associated with tool usage. This can lead to suboptimal behavior, including excessive tool calls that increase computational and financial overhead, or insufficient tool use that compromises answer quality. In this work, we propose Optimal Tool Call-controlled Policy Optimization (OTC-PO), a simple yet effective RL-based framework that encourages models to produce accurate answers with minimal tool calls. Our method introduces a tool-integrated reward that jointly considers correctness and tool efficiency, promoting high tool productivity. We instantiate this framework within both Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Group Relative Preference Optimization (GRPO), resulting in OTC-PPO and OTC-GRPO. Experiments with Qwen-2.5 and Qwen-Math across multiple QA benchmarks show that our approach reduces tool calls by up to 73.1\% and improves tool productivity by up to 229.4\%, while maintaining comparable answer accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first RL-based framework that explicitly optimizes tool-use efficiency in TIR.

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that using tighter evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) can be detrimental to the process of learning an inference network by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio of the gradient estimator. Our results call into question common implicit assumptions that tighter ELBOs are better variational objectives for simultaneous model learning and inference amortization schemes. Based on our insights, we introduce three new algorithms: the partially importance weighted auto-encoder (PIWAE), the multiply importance weighted auto-encoder (MIWAE), and the combination importance weighted auto-encoder (CIWAE), each of which includes the standard importance weighted auto-encoder (IWAE) as a special case. We show that each can deliver improvements over IWAE, even when performance is measured by the IWAE target itself. Furthermore, our results suggest that PIWAE may be able to deliver simultaneous improvements in the training of both the inference and generative networks.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce the General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation, GIFT-Eval, a pioneering benchmark aimed at promoting evaluation across diverse datasets. GIFT-Eval encompasses 28 datasets over 144,000 time series and 177 million data points, spanning seven domains, 10 frequencies, multivariate inputs, and prediction lengths ranging from short to long-term forecasts. To facilitate the effective pretraining and evaluation of foundation models, we also provide a non-leaking pretraining dataset containing approximately 230 billion data points. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of 17 baselines, which includes statistical models, deep learning models, and foundation models. We discuss each model in the context of various benchmark characteristics and offer a qualitative analysis that spans both deep learning and foundation models. We believe the insights from this analysis, along with access to this new standard zero-shot time series forecasting benchmark, will guide future developments in time series foundation models. The codebase, datasets, and a leaderboard showing all the results in detail will be available soon.

In this paper, we propose AnalogSeeker, an effort toward an open-source foundation language model for analog circuit design, with the aim of integrating domain knowledge and giving design assistance. To overcome the scarcity of data in this field, we employ a corpus collection strategy based on the domain knowledge framework of analog circuits. High-quality, accessible textbooks across relevant subfields are systematically curated and cleaned into a textual domain corpus. To address the complexity of knowledge of analog circuits, we introduce a granular domain knowledge distillation method. Raw, unlabeled domain corpus is decomposed into typical, granular learning nodes, where a multi-agent framework distills implicit knowledge embedded in unstructured text into question-answer data pairs with detailed reasoning processes, yielding a fine-grained, learnable dataset for fine-tuning. To address the unexplored challenges in training analog circuit foundation models, we explore and share our training methods through both theoretical analysis and experimental validation. We finally establish a fine-tuning-centric training paradigm, customizing and implementing a neighborhood self-constrained supervised fine-tuning algorithm. This approach enhances training outcomes by constraining the perturbation magnitude between the model's output distributions before and after training. In practice, we train the Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct model to obtain AnalogSeeker, which achieves 85.04% accuracy on AMSBench-TQA, the analog circuit knowledge evaluation benchmark, with a 15.67% point improvement over the original model and is competitive with mainstream commercial models. Furthermore, AnalogSeeker also shows effectiveness in the downstream operational amplifier design task. AnalogSeeker is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/analogllm/analogseeker for research use.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable advancements, but their monolithic nature presents challenges in terms of scalability, cost, and customization. This paper introduces the Composition of Experts (CoE), a modular compound AI system leveraging multiple expert LLMs. CoE leverages a router to dynamically select the most appropriate expert for a given input, enabling efficient utilization of resources and improved performance. We formulate the general problem of training a CoE and discuss inherent complexities associated with it. We propose a two-step routing approach to address these complexities that first uses a router to classify the input into distinct categories followed by a category-to-expert mapping to obtain desired experts. CoE offers a flexible and cost-effective solution to build compound AI systems. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of CoE in achieving superior performance with reduced computational overhead. Given that CoE comprises of many expert LLMs it has unique system requirements for cost-effective serving. We present an efficient implementation of CoE leveraging SambaNova SN40L RDUs unique three-tiered memory architecture. CoEs obtained using open weight LLMs Qwen/Qwen2-7B-Instruct, google/gemma-2-9b-it, google/gemma-2-27b-it, meta-llama/Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct and Qwen/Qwen2-72B-Instruct achieve a score of 59.4 with merely 31 billion average active parameters on Arena-Hard and a score of 9.06 with 54 billion average active parameters on MT-Bench.

FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at 0.25^{circ} resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts high-resolution, fast-timescale variables such as the surface wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric water vapor. It has important implications for planning wind energy resources, predicting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers. FourCastNet matches the forecasting accuracy of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, at short lead times for large-scale variables, while outperforming IFS for variables with complex fine-scale structure, including precipitation. FourCastNet generates a week-long forecast in less than 2 seconds, orders of magnitude faster than IFS. The speed of FourCastNet enables the creation of rapid and inexpensive large-ensemble forecasts with thousands of ensemble-members for improving probabilistic forecasting. We discuss how data-driven deep learning models such as FourCastNet are a valuable addition to the meteorology toolkit to aid and augment NWP models.

Large language models (LLMs) show impressive performance in solving complex language tasks. However, its large number of parameters present significant challenges for the deployment and application of the model on edge devices. Compressing large language models to low bits can enable them to run on resource-constrained devices, often leading to performance degradation. To address this problem, we propose gradient-aware weight quantization (GWQ), the first quantization approach for low-bit weight quantization that leverages gradients to localize outliers, requiring only a minimal amount of calibration data for outlier detection. GWQ retains the weights corresponding to the top 1% outliers preferentially at FP16 precision, while the remaining non-outlier weights are stored in a low-bit format. GWQ found experimentally that utilizing the sensitive weights in the gradient localization model is more scientific compared to utilizing the sensitive weights in the Hessian matrix localization model. Compared to current quantization methods, GWQ can be applied to multiple language models and achieves lower PPL on the WikiText2 and C4 dataset. In the zero-shot task, GWQ quantized models have higher accuracy compared to other quantization methods. GWQ is also suitable for multimodal model quantization, and the quantized Qwen-VL family model is more accurate than other methods. Zero-shot target detection task dataset RefCOCO outperforms the current stat-of-the-arts method SPQR. GWQ achieves 1.2 times inference speedup in comparison to the original model, and effectively reduces the inference memory.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

We introduce InspireMusic, a framework integrated super resolution and large language model for high-fidelity long-form music generation. A unified framework generates high-fidelity music, songs, and audio, which incorporates an autoregressive transformer with a super-resolution flow-matching model. This framework enables the controllable generation of high-fidelity long-form music at a higher sampling rate from both text and audio prompts. Our model differs from previous approaches, as we utilize an audio tokenizer with one codebook that contains richer semantic information, thereby reducing training costs and enhancing efficiency. This combination enables us to achieve high-quality audio generation with long-form coherence of up to 8 minutes. Then, an autoregressive transformer model based on Qwen 2.5 predicts audio tokens. Next, we employ a super-resolution flow-matching model to generate high-sampling rate audio with fine-grained details learned from an acoustic codec model. Comprehensive experiments show that the InspireMusic-1.5B-Long model has a comparable performance to recent top-tier open-source systems, including MusicGen and Stable Audio 2.0, on subjective and objective evaluations. The code and pre-trained models are released at https://github.com/FunAudioLLM/InspireMusic.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Model selection is a critical step in time series forecasting, traditionally requiring extensive performance evaluations across various datasets. Meta-learning approaches aim to automate this process, but they typically depend on pre-constructed performance matrices, which are costly to build. In this work, we propose to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) as a lightweight alternative for model selection. Our method eliminates the need for explicit performance matrices by utilizing the inherent knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Through extensive experiments with LLaMA, GPT and Gemini, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional meta-learning techniques and heuristic baselines, while significantly reducing computational overhead. These findings underscore the potential of LLMs in efficient model selection for time series forecasting.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce "blurry" precipitation forecasts that overestimate drizzle and underestimate extremes. This study provides a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates with global mass and energy conservation schemes into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this solution using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0-degree grid spacing data. Verification results show large performance gains. The conservation schemes are found to reduce drizzle bias, whereas using terrain-following coordinates improves the estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Furthermore, a case study reveals that terrain-following coordinates capture near-surface winds better over mountains, offering AIWP models more accurate information on understanding the dynamics of precipitation processes. The proposed solution of this study can benefit a wide range of AIWP models and bring insights into how atmospheric domain knowledge can support the development of AIWP models.

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Asymmetrical distance structures (quasimetrics) are ubiquitous in our lives and are gaining more attention in machine learning applications. Imposing such quasimetric structures in model representations has been shown to improve many tasks, including reinforcement learning (RL) and causal relation learning. In this work, we present four desirable properties in such quasimetric models, and show how prior works fail at them. We propose Interval Quasimetric Embedding (IQE), which is designed to satisfy all four criteria. On three quasimetric learning experiments, IQEs show strong approximation and generalization abilities, leading to better performance and improved efficiency over prior methods. Project Page: https://www.tongzhouwang.info/interval_quasimetric_embedding Quasimetric Learning Code Package: https://www.github.com/quasimetric-learning/torch-quasimetric

We release the Nemotron-4 340B model family, including Nemotron-4-340B-Base, Nemotron-4-340B-Instruct, and Nemotron-4-340B-Reward. Our models are open access under the NVIDIA Open Model License Agreement, a permissive model license that allows distribution, modification, and use of the models and its outputs. These models perform competitively to open access models on a wide range of evaluation benchmarks, and were sized to fit on a single DGX H100 with 8 GPUs when deployed in FP8 precision. We believe that the community can benefit from these models in various research studies and commercial applications, especially for generating synthetic data to train smaller language models. Notably, over 98% of data used in our model alignment process is synthetically generated, showcasing the effectiveness of these models in generating synthetic data. To further support open research and facilitate model development, we are also open-sourcing the synthetic data generation pipeline used in our model alignment process.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Recent studies of gradient descent with large step sizes have shown that there is often a regime with an initial increase in the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian (progressive sharpening), followed by a stabilization of the eigenvalue near the maximum value which allows convergence (edge of stability). These phenomena are intrinsically non-linear and do not happen for models in the constant Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, for which the predictive function is approximately linear in the parameters. As such, we consider the next simplest class of predictive models, namely those that are quadratic in the parameters, which we call second-order regression models. For quadratic objectives in two dimensions, we prove that this second-order regression model exhibits progressive sharpening of the NTK eigenvalue towards a value that differs slightly from the edge of stability, which we explicitly compute. In higher dimensions, the model generically shows similar behavior, even without the specific structure of a neural network, suggesting that progressive sharpening and edge-of-stability behavior aren't unique features of neural networks, and could be a more general property of discrete learning algorithms in high-dimensional non-linear models.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

The recent trend of large language models (LLMs) is to increase the scale of both model size (\aka the number of parameters) and dataset to achieve better generative ability, which is definitely proved by a lot of work such as the famous GPT and Llama. However, large models often involve massive computational costs, and practical applications cannot afford such high prices. However, the method of constructing a strong model architecture for LLMs is rarely discussed. We first analyze the state-of-the-art language model architectures and observe the feature collapse problem. Based on the theoretical analysis, we propose that the nonlinearity is also very important for language models, which is usually studied in convolutional neural networks for vision tasks. The series informed activation function is then introduced with tiny calculations that can be ignored, and an augmented shortcut is further used to enhance the model nonlinearity. We then demonstrate that the proposed approach is significantly effective for enhancing the model nonlinearity through carefully designed ablations; thus, we present a new efficient model architecture for establishing modern, namely, PanGu-pi. Experiments are then conducted using the same dataset and training strategy to compare PanGu-pi with state-of-the-art LLMs. The results show that PanGu-pi-7B can achieve a comparable performance to that of benchmarks with about 10\% inference speed-up, and PanGu-pi-1B can achieve state-of-the-art performance in terms of accuracy and efficiency. In addition, we have deployed PanGu-pi-7B in the high-value domains of finance and law, developing an LLM named YunShan for practical application. The results show that YunShan can surpass other models with similar scales on benchmarks.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Software engineering activities frequently involve edits to existing code. However, contemporary code language models (LMs) lack the ability to handle diverse types of code-edit requirements. In this work, we attempt to overcome this shortcoming through (1) a novel synthetic data generation pipeline and (2) a robust model adaptation algorithm. Starting with seed code examples and diverse editing criteria, our pipeline generates high-quality samples comprising original and modified code, along with natural language instructions in different styles and verbosity. Today's code LMs come bundled with strong abilities, such as code generation and instruction following, which should not be lost due to fine-tuning. To ensure this, we propose a novel adaptation algorithm, SeleKT, that (a) leverages a dense gradient-based step to identify the weights that are most important for code editing, and (b) does a sparse projection onto the base model to avoid overfitting. Using our approach, we obtain a new series of models NextCoder (adapted from QwenCoder-2.5) that achieves strong results on five code-editing benchmarks, outperforming comparable size models and even several larger ones. We show the generality of our approach on two model families (DeepSeekCoder and QwenCoder), compare against other fine-tuning approaches, and demonstrate robustness by showing retention of code generation abilities post adaptation.

Multivariable time series forecasting methods can integrate information from exogenous variables, leading to significant prediction accuracy gains. Transformer architecture has been widely applied in various time series forecasting models due to its ability to capture long-range sequential dependencies. However, a na\"ive application of transformers often struggles to effectively model complex relationships among variables over time. To mitigate against this, we propose a novel architecture, namely the Spectral Operator Neural Network (Sonnet). Sonnet applies learnable wavelet transformations to the input and incorporates spectral analysis using the Koopman operator. Its predictive skill relies on the Multivariable Coherence Attention (MVCA), an operation that leverages spectral coherence to model variable dependencies. Our empirical analysis shows that Sonnet yields the best performance on 34 out of 47 forecasting tasks with an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 1.1% against the most competitive baseline (different per task). We further show that MVCA -- when put in place of the na\"ive attention used in various deep learning models -- can remedy its deficiencies, reducing MAE by 10.7% on average in the most challenging forecasting tasks.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

We present Rapid Attention Distillation to Linear Attention Decoders at Scale (RADLADS), a protocol for rapidly converting softmax attention transformers into linear attention decoder models, along with two new RWKV-variant architectures, and models converted from popular Qwen2.5 open source models in 7B, 32B, and 72B sizes. Our conversion process requires only 350-700M tokens, less than 0.005% of the token count used to train the original teacher models. Converting to our 72B linear attention model costs less than \$2,000 USD at today's prices, yet quality at inference remains close to the original transformer. These models achieve state-of-the-art downstream performance across a set of standard benchmarks for linear attention models of their size. We release all our models on HuggingFace under the Apache 2.0 license, with the exception of our 72B models which are also governed by the Qwen License Agreement. Models at https://huggingface.co/collections/recursal/radlads-6818ee69e99e729ba8a87102 Training Code at https://github.com/recursal/RADLADS-paper

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50% compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

When training deep learning models, the performance depends largely on the selected hyperparameters. However, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is often one of the most expensive parts of model design. Classical HPO methods treat this as a black-box optimization problem. However, gray-box HPO methods, which incorporate more information about the setup, have emerged as a promising direction for more efficient optimization. For example, using intermediate loss evaluations to terminate bad selections. In this work, we propose an HPO method for neural networks using logged checkpoints of the trained weights to guide future hyperparameter selections. Our method, Forecasting Model Search (FMS), embeds weights into a Gaussian process deep kernel surrogate model, using a permutation-invariant graph metanetwork to be data-efficient with the logged network weights. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we open-source our code at https://github.com/NVlabs/forecasting-model-search.

Recent developments in quantum computing and machine learning have propelled the interdisciplinary study of quantum machine learning. Sequential modeling is an important task with high scientific and commercial value. Existing VQC or QNN-based methods require significant computational resources to perform the gradient-based optimization of a larger number of quantum circuit parameters. The major drawback is that such quantum gradient calculation requires a large amount of circuit evaluation, posing challenges in current near-term quantum hardware and simulation software. In this work, we approach sequential modeling by applying a reservoir computing (RC) framework to quantum recurrent neural networks (QRNN-RC) that are based on classical RNN, LSTM and GRU. The main idea to this RC approach is that the QRNN with randomly initialized weights is treated as a dynamical system and only the final classical linear layer is trained. Our numerical simulations show that the QRNN-RC can reach results comparable to fully trained QRNN models for several function approximation and time series prediction tasks. Since the QRNN training complexity is significantly reduced, the proposed model trains notably faster. In this work we also compare to corresponding classical RNN-based RC implementations and show that the quantum version learns faster by requiring fewer training epochs in most cases. Our results demonstrate a new possibility to utilize quantum neural network for sequential modeling with greater quantum hardware efficiency, an important design consideration for noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

In this study, we propose a volume-to-point framework for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensor (QPESUMS) Mosaic Radar data set. With a data volume consisting of the time series of gridded radar reflectivities over the Taiwan area, we used machine learning algorithms to establish a statistical model for QPE in weather stations. The model extracts spatial and temporal features from the input data volume and then associates these features with the location-specific precipitations. In contrast to QPE methods based on the Z-R relation, we leverage the machine learning algorithms to automatically detect the evolution and movement of weather systems and associate these patterns to a location with specific topographic attributes. Specifically, we evaluated this framework with the hourly precipitation data of 45 weather stations in Taipei during 2013-2016. In comparison to the operational QPE scheme used by the Central Weather Bureau, the volume-to-point framework performed comparably well in general cases and excelled in detecting heavy-rainfall events. By using the current results as the reference benchmark, the proposed method can integrate the heterogeneous data sources and potentially improve the forecast in extreme precipitation scenarios.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

In this paper, we introduce AceMath, a suite of frontier math models that excel in solving complex math problems, along with highly effective reward models capable of evaluating generated solutions and reliably identifying the correct ones. To develop the instruction-tuned math models, we propose a supervised fine-tuning (SFT) process that first achieves competitive performance across general domains, followed by targeted fine-tuning for the math domain using a carefully curated set of prompts and synthetically generated responses. The resulting model, AceMath-72B-Instruct greatly outperforms Qwen2.5-Math-72B-Instruct, GPT-4o and Claude-3.5 Sonnet. To develop math-specialized reward model, we first construct AceMath-RewardBench, a comprehensive and robust benchmark for evaluating math reward models across diverse problems and difficulty levels. After that, we present a systematic approach to build our math reward models. The resulting model, AceMath-72B-RM, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art reward models. Furthermore, when combining AceMath-72B-Instruct with AceMath-72B-RM, we achieve the highest average rm@8 score across the math reasoning benchmarks. We will release model weights, training data, and evaluation benchmarks at: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/adlr/acemath

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Recent advances to combine structured regression models and deep neural networks for better interpretability, more expressiveness, and statistically valid uncertainty quantification demonstrate the versatility of semi-structured neural networks (SSNs). We show that techniques to properly identify the contributions of the different model components in SSNs, however, lead to suboptimal network estimation, slower convergence, and degenerated or erroneous predictions. In order to solve these problems while preserving favorable model properties, we propose a non-invasive post-hoc orthogonalization (PHO) that guarantees identifiability of model components and provides better estimation and prediction quality. Our theoretical findings are supported by numerical experiments, a benchmark comparison as well as a real-world application to COVID-19 infections.

Time Series Forecasting has been an active area of research due to its many applications ranging from network usage prediction, resource allocation, anomaly detection, and predictive maintenance. Numerous publications published in the last five years have proposed diverse sets of objective loss functions to address cases such as biased data, long-term forecasting, multicollinear features, etc. In this paper, we have summarized 14 well-known regression loss functions commonly used for time series forecasting and listed out the circumstances where their application can aid in faster and better model convergence. We have also demonstrated how certain categories of loss functions perform well across all data sets and can be considered as a baseline objective function in circumstances where the distribution of the data is unknown. Our code is available at GitHub: https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Regression-Loss-Functions-in-Time-Series-Forecasting-Tensorflow.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering the underlying mathematical expressions from observed data. Inspired by the success of deep learning, recent efforts have focused on two categories for SR methods. One is using a neural network or genetic programming to search the expression tree directly. Although this has shown promising results, the large search space poses difficulties in learning constant factors and processing high-dimensional problems. Another approach is leveraging a transformer-based model training on synthetic data and offers advantages in inference speed. However, this method is limited to fixed small numbers of dimensions and may encounter inference problems when given data is out-of-distribution compared to the synthetic data. In this work, we propose DySymNet, a novel neural-guided Dynamic Symbolic Network for SR. Instead of searching for expressions within a large search space, we explore DySymNet with various structures and optimize them to identify expressions that better-fitting the data. With a topology structure like neural networks, DySymNet not only tackles the challenge of high-dimensional problems but also proves effective in optimizing constants. Based on extensive numerical experiments using low-dimensional public standard benchmarks and the well-known SRBench with more variables, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of fitting accuracy and robustness to noise.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Multivariate long-term and efficient time series forecasting is a key requirement for a variety of practical applications, and there are complex interleaving time dynamics in time series data that require decomposition modeling. Traditional time series decomposition methods are single and rely on fixed rules, which are insufficient for mining the potential information of the series and adapting to the dynamic characteristics of complex series. On the other hand, the Transformer-based models for time series forecasting struggle to effectively model long sequences and intricate dynamic relationships due to their high computational complexity. To overcome these limitations, we introduce KARMA, with an Adaptive Time Channel Decomposition module (ATCD) to dynamically extract trend and seasonal components. It further integrates a Hybrid Frequency-Time Decomposition module (HFTD) to further decompose Series into frequency-domain and time-domain. These components are coupled with multi-scale Mamba-based KarmaBlock to efficiently process global and local information in a coordinated manner. Experiments on eight real-world datasets from diverse domains well demonstrated that KARMA significantly outperforms mainstream baseline methods in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Code and full results are available at this repository: https://github.com/yedadasd/KARMA

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models have quickly emerged as a promising methodology for accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Here, we introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a data driven forecast model developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). AIFS is based on a graph neural network (GNN) encoder and decoder, and a sliding window transformer processor, and is trained on ECMWF's ERA5 re-analysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) analyses. It has a flexible and modular design and supports several levels of parallelism to enable training on high-resolution input data. AIFS forecast skill is assessed by comparing its forecasts to NWP analyses and direct observational data. We show that AIFS produces highly skilled forecasts for upper-air variables, surface weather parameters and tropical cyclone tracks. AIFS is run four times daily alongside ECMWF's physics-based NWP model and forecasts are available to the public under ECMWF's open data policy.

Traditional time-series forecasting often focuses only on minimizing prediction errors, ignoring the specific requirements of real-world applications that employ them. This paper presents a new training methodology, which allows a forecasting model to dynamically adjust its focus based on the importance of forecast ranges specified by the end application. Unlike previous methods that fix these ranges beforehand, our training approach breaks down predictions over the entire signal range into smaller segments, which are then dynamically weighted and combined to produce accurate forecasts. We tested our method on standard datasets, including a new dataset from wireless communication, and found that not only it improves prediction accuracy but also improves the performance of end application employing the forecasting model. This research provides a basis for creating forecasting systems that better connect prediction and decision-making in various practical applications.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in diverse applications but suffer inefficiency due to massive scale. While quantization reduces computational costs, existing methods degrade accuracy in medium-sized LLMs (e.g., Llama-3-8B) due to activation outliers. To address this, we propose QUAD (Quantization with Activation Decomposition), a framework leveraging Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to suppress activation outliers for effective 4-bit quantization. QUAD estimates activation singular vectors offline using calibration data to construct an orthogonal transformation matrix P, shifting outliers to additional dimensions in full precision while quantizing rest components to 4-bit. Additionally, QUAD enables parameter-efficient fine-tuning via adaptable full-precision outlier weights, narrowing the accuracy gap between quantized and full-precision models. Experiments demonstrate that QUAD achieves 94% ~ 96% accuracy under W4A4 quantization and 98% accuracy with W4A4/A8 and parameter-efficient fine-tuning for Llama-3 and Qwen-2.5 models. Our code is available at https://github.com/hyx1999/Quad{repository}.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

Foundation models have emerged as a promising approach in time series forecasting (TSF). Existing approaches either fine-tune large language models (LLMs) or build large-scale time-series datasets to develop TSF foundation models. However, these methods face challenges due to the severe cross-domain gap or in-domain heterogeneity. In this paper, we explore a new road to building a TSF foundation model from rich and high-quality natural images, based on the intrinsic similarities between images and time series. To bridge the gap between the two domains, we reformulate the TSF task as an image reconstruction task, which is further processed by a visual masked autoencoder (MAE) self-supervised pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset. Surprisingly, without further adaptation in the time-series domain, the proposed VisionTS could achieve superior zero-shot forecasting performance compared to existing TSF foundation models. With minimal fine-tuning, VisionTS could further improve the forecasting and achieve state-of-the-art performance in most cases. These findings suggest that visual models could be a free lunch for TSF and highlight the potential for future cross-domain research between computer vision and TSF. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Keytoyze/VisionTS.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly increasing in size, with the number of parameters becoming a key factor in the success of many commercial models, such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Bard. Even the recently released publicly accessible models for commercial usage, such as Falcon and Llama2, come equipped with billions of parameters. This significant increase in the number of parameters makes deployment and operation very costly. The remarkable progress in the field of quantization for large neural networks in general and LLMs in particular, has made these models more accessible by enabling them to be deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Quantized models generally demonstrate comparable performance levels to their unquantized base counterparts. Nonetheless, there exists a notable gap in our comprehensive understanding of how these quantized models respond to hyperparameters, such as temperature, max new tokens, and topk, particularly for next word prediction. The present analysis reveals that nf4 and fp4 are equally proficient 4-bit quantization techniques, characterized by similar attributes such as inference speed, memory consumption, and the quality of generated content. the study identifies nf4 as displaying greater resilience to temperature variations in the case of the llama2 series of models at lower temperature, while fp4 and fp4-dq proves to be a more suitable choice for falcon series of models. It is noteworthy that, in general, 4-bit quantized models of varying sizes exhibit higher sensitivity to temperature in the range of 0.5 to 0.8, unlike their unquantized counterparts. Additionally, int8 quantization is associated with significantly slower inference speeds, whereas unquantized bfloat16 models consistently yield the fastest inference speeds across models of all sizes.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We introduce Baichuan Alignment, a detailed analysis of the alignment techniques employed in the Baichuan series of models. This represents the industry's first comprehensive account of alignment methodologies, offering valuable insights for advancing AI research. We investigate the critical components that enhance model performance during the alignment process, including optimization methods, data strategies, capability enhancements, and evaluation processes. The process spans three key stages: Prompt Augmentation System (PAS), Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), and Preference Alignment. The problems encountered, the solutions applied, and the improvements made are thoroughly recorded. Through comparisons across well-established benchmarks, we highlight the technological advancements enabled by Baichuan Alignment. Baichuan-Instruct is an internal model, while Qwen2-Nova-72B and Llama3-PBM-Nova-70B are instruct versions of the Qwen2-72B and Llama-3-70B base models, optimized through Baichuan Alignment. Baichuan-Instruct demonstrates significant improvements in core capabilities, with user experience gains ranging from 17% to 28%, and performs exceptionally well on specialized benchmarks. In open-source benchmark evaluations, both Qwen2-Nova-72B and Llama3-PBM-Nova-70B consistently outperform their respective official instruct versions across nearly all datasets. This report aims to clarify the key technologies behind the alignment process, fostering a deeper understanding within the community. Llama3-PBM-Nova-70B model is available at https://huggingface.co/PKU-Baichuan-MLSystemLab/Llama3-PBM-Nova-70B.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in complex reasoning tasks through both post-training and test-time scaling laws. While prevalent test-time scaling approaches are often realized by using external reward models to guide the model generation process, we find only marginal gains can be acquired when scaling a model post-trained on specific reasoning tasks. We identify that the limited improvement stems from distribution discrepancies between the specific post-trained generator and the general reward model. To address this, we propose a framework that incentivizes LLMs to self-verify their own answers. By unifying answer generation and verification within a single reinforcement learning (RL) process, we train models that can effectively assess the correctness of their own solutions. The trained model can further scale its performance during inference time by verifying its generations, without the need for external verifiers. We train our self-verification models based on Qwen2.5-Math-7B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, demonstrating its capabilities across varying reasoning context lengths. Experiments on multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that our models can not only improve post-training performance but also enable effective test-time scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/mansicer/self-verification.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review Transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations. In particular, we examine the development of time series Transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network structure, we summarize the adaptations and modifications that have been made to Transformers in order to accommodate the challenges in time series analysis. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series Transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work to comprehensively and systematically summarize the recent advances of Transformers for modeling time series data. We hope this survey will ignite further research interests in time series Transformers.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal (cross-time) and variate (cross-variate) dependencies. While Transformer-based models have gained popularity for their flexibility in capturing both sequential and cross-variate relationships, it is unclear how to best integrate these two sources of information in the context of the Transformer architecture while optimizing for both performance and efficiency. We re-purpose the Transformer architecture to effectively model both cross-time and cross-variate dependencies. Our approach begins by embedding each variate independently into a variate-wise representation that captures its cross-time dynamics, and then models cross-variate dependencies through attention mechanisms on these learned embeddings. Gating operations in both cross-time and cross-variate modeling phases regulate information flow, allowing the model to focus on the most relevant features for accurate predictions. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 13 real-world datasets and can be seamlessly integrated into other Transformer-based and LLM-based forecasters, delivering performance improvements up to 20.7\% over original models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/nyuolab/Gateformer.

Inference-time scaling trades efficiency for increased reasoning accuracy by generating longer or more parallel sequences. However, in Transformer LLMs, generation cost is bottlenecked by the size of the key-value (KV) cache, rather than the number of generated tokens. Hence, we explore inference-time hyper-scaling: by compressing the KV cache, we can generate more tokens within the same compute budget and further improve the accuracy of scaled inference. The success of this approach, however, hinges on the ability of compression methods to preserve accuracy even at high compression ratios. To make hyper-scaling practical, we introduce Dynamic Memory Sparsification (DMS), a novel method for sparsifying KV caches that only requires 1K training steps to achieve 8times compression, while maintaining better accuracy than training-free sparse attention. Instead of prematurely discarding cached tokens, DMS delays token eviction, implicitly merging representations and preserving critical information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of inference-time hyper-scaling with DMS on multiple families of LLMs, showing that it boosts accuracy for comparable inference runtime and memory load. For instance, we enhance Qwen-R1 32B by an average of 9.1 points on AIME 24, 7.6 on GPQA, and 9.6 on LiveCodeBench across compute budgets.

A quantum neural network (QNN) is a parameterized mapping efficiently implementable on near-term Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers. It can be used for supervised learning when combined with classical gradient-based optimizers. Despite the existing empirical and theoretical investigations, the convergence of QNN training is not fully understood. Inspired by the success of the neural tangent kernels (NTKs) in probing into the dynamics of classical neural networks, a recent line of works proposes to study over-parameterized QNNs by examining a quantum version of tangent kernels. In this work, we study the dynamics of QNNs and show that contrary to popular belief it is qualitatively different from that of any kernel regression: due to the unitarity of quantum operations, there is a non-negligible deviation from the tangent kernel regression derived at the random initialization. As a result of the deviation, we prove the at-most sublinear convergence for QNNs with Pauli measurements, which is beyond the explanatory power of any kernel regression dynamics. We then present the actual dynamics of QNNs in the limit of over-parameterization. The new dynamics capture the change of convergence rate during training and implies that the range of measurements is crucial to the fast QNN convergence.

Foundation models have become increasingly popular for forecasting due to their ability to provide predictions without requiring a lot of training data. In this work, we demonstrate how TabPFN-v2, a general tabular foundation model, can be effectively applied to time series forecasting. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method that combines TabPFN-v2 with lightweight feature engineering to enable both point and probabilistic forecasting. Despite its simplicity and compact size (11M parameters), TabPFN-TS achieves top rank on the public GIFT-Eval leaderboard in both forecasting tasks. Through ablation studies, we investigate factors contributing to this surprising effectiveness, especially considering TabPFN-v2 was pretrained solely on synthetic tabular data with no exposure to time series. Our results highlights the potential of tabular foundation models like TabPFN-v2 as a valuable new approach for time series forecasting. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PriorLabs/tabpfn-time-series.

Autoregressively trained transformers have brought a profound revolution to the world, especially with their in-context learning (ICL) ability to address downstream tasks. Recently, several studies suggest that transformers learn a mesa-optimizer during autoregressive (AR) pretraining to implement ICL. Namely, the forward pass of the trained transformer is equivalent to optimizing an inner objective function in-context. However, whether the practical non-convex training dynamics will converge to the ideal mesa-optimizer is still unclear. Towards filling this gap, we investigate the non-convex dynamics of a one-layer linear causal self-attention model autoregressively trained by gradient flow, where the sequences are generated by an AR process x_{t+1} = W x_t. First, under a certain condition of data distribution, we prove that an autoregressively trained transformer learns W by implementing one step of gradient descent to minimize an ordinary least squares (OLS) problem in-context. It then applies the learned W for next-token prediction, thereby verifying the mesa-optimization hypothesis. Next, under the same data conditions, we explore the capability limitations of the obtained mesa-optimizer. We show that a stronger assumption related to the moments of data is the sufficient and necessary condition that the learned mesa-optimizer recovers the distribution. Besides, we conduct exploratory analyses beyond the first data condition and prove that generally, the trained transformer will not perform vanilla gradient descent for the OLS problem. Finally, our simulation results verify the theoretical results.

This paper presents the Large Wireless Model (LWM) -- the world's first foundation model for wireless channels. Designed as a task-agnostic model, LWM generates universal, rich, contextualized channel embeddings (features) that potentially enhance performance across a wide range of downstream tasks in wireless communication and sensing systems. Towards this objective, LWM, which has a transformer-based architecture, was pre-trained in a self-supervised manner on large-scale wireless channel datasets. Our results show consistent improvements in classification and regression tasks when using the LWM embeddings compared to raw channel representations, especially in scenarios with high-complexity machine learning tasks and limited training datasets. This LWM's ability to learn from large-scale wireless data opens a promising direction for intelligent systems that can efficiently adapt to diverse tasks with limited data, paving the way for addressing key challenges in wireless communication and sensing systems.

Post-training has emerged as a crucial paradigm for adapting large-scale pre-trained models to various tasks, whose effects are fully reflected by delta parameters (i.e., the disparity between post-trained and pre-trained parameters). While numerous studies have explored delta parameter properties via operations like pruning, quantization, low-rank approximation, and extrapolation, a unified framework for systematically examining these characteristics has been lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective based on Riemann sum approximation of the loss function to elucidate delta parameter editing operations. Our analysis categorizes existing methods into three classes based on their post-editing performance: competitive, decreased, and improved, explaining how they are expressed by the Riemann sum approximation term and how they alter the model performance. Extensive experiments on both visual and language models, including ViT, LLaMA 3, Qwen 2, and Mistral, corroborate our theoretical findings. Furthermore, we introduce extensions to existing techniques like DARE and BitDelta, highlighting their limitations in leveraging the properties of delta parameters and reorganizing them into general expressions to enhance the applicability and effectiveness of delta parameter editing in post-trained models.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Strongly lensed variable quasars can serve as precise cosmological probes, provided that time delays between the image fluxes can be accurately measured. A number of methods have been proposed to address this problem. In this paper, we explore in detail a new approach based on kernel regression estimates, which is able to estimate a single time delay given several datasets for the same quasar. We develop realistic artificial data sets in order to carry out controlled experiments to test of performance of this new approach. We also test our method on real data from strongly lensed quasar Q0957+561 and compare our estimates against existing results.

Competition-level code generation tasks pose significant challenges for current state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs). For example, on the LiveCodeBench-Hard dataset, models such as O1-Mini and O1-Preview achieve pass@1 rates of only 0.366 and 0.143, respectively. While tree search techniques have proven effective in domains like mathematics and general coding, their potential in competition-level code generation remains under-explored. In this work, we propose a novel token-level tree search method specifically designed for code generation. Leveraging Qwen2.5-Coder-32B-Instruct, our approach achieves a pass rate of 0.305 on LiveCodeBench-Hard, surpassing the pass@100 performance of GPT4o-0513 (0.245). Furthermore, by integrating Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting, we improve our method's performance to 0.351, approaching O1-Mini's pass@1 rate. To ensure reproducibility, we report the average number of generations required per problem by our tree search method on the test set. Our findings underscore the potential of tree search to significantly enhance performance on competition-level code generation tasks. This opens up new possibilities for large-scale synthesis of challenging code problems supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data, advancing competition-level code generation tasks.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show potential in medicine, yet clinical adoption is hindered by concerns over factual accuracy, language-specific limitations (e.g., Japanese), and critically, their reliability when required to generate reasoning explanations -- a prerequisite for trust. This paper introduces Preferred-MedLLM-Qwen-72B, a 72B-parameter model optimized for the Japanese medical domain to achieve both high accuracy and stable reasoning. We employ a two-stage fine-tuning process on the Qwen2.5-72B base model: first, Continued Pretraining (CPT) on a comprehensive Japanese medical corpus instills deep domain knowledge. Second, Reasoning Preference Optimization (RPO), a preference-based method, enhances the generation of reliable reasoning pathways while preserving high answer accuracy. Evaluations on the Japanese Medical Licensing Exam benchmark (IgakuQA) show Preferred-MedLLM-Qwen-72B achieves state-of-the-art performance (0.868 accuracy), surpassing strong proprietary models like GPT-4o (0.866). Crucially, unlike baseline or CPT-only models which exhibit significant accuracy degradation (up to 11.5\% and 3.8\% respectively on IgakuQA) when prompted for explanations, our model maintains its high accuracy (0.868) under such conditions. This highlights RPO's effectiveness in stabilizing reasoning generation. This work underscores the importance of optimizing for reliable explanations alongside accuracy. We release the Preferred-MedLLM-Qwen-72B model weights to foster research into trustworthy LLMs for specialized, high-stakes applications.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

Leading large language models have demonstrated impressive capabilities in reasoning-intensive tasks, such as standardized educational testing. However, they often require extensive training in low-resource settings with inaccessible infrastructure. Small or compact models, though more efficient, frequently lack sufficient support for underrepresented languages, leaving a performance gap in critical domains. This work explores the potential of parameter-efficient fine-tuning of compact open-weight language models to handle reasoning-intensive tasks in the underrepresented Ukrainian language, building on the findings of the ZNO-Eval benchmark. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning of LLaMA 3.1 (8 billion parameters), LLaMA 3.2 (3 billion parameters), and Gemma 2 (9 billion parameters) models on chain-of-thought solutions resulted in a modest test score improvement of up to 17.4% on complex matching tasks and 1.6% overall compared to tuning on answer letters alone, offering enhanced interpretability and robustness. In addition, the proposed tuning method with joint task topic and step-by-step solution generation outperforms standard chain-of-thought tuning in matching tasks and provides a 5.4% gain over the best LLaMA 3.2 model due to guiding the model to recall and apply domain-relevant information. Contrasting obtained results with zero-shot evaluations of leading open-weight and proprietary models such as Qwen, DeepSeek R1, OpenAI o1 and o3, Gemini, and Claude, highlight that fine-tuning LLaMA and Gemma models with 2,032 step-by-step solutions and 20 to 50 million trainable parameters on a single A100 GPU lets them outperform GPT-4o mini, Mistral Large, and larger open-weight models. This research also evaluates how merging the quantized adapter with the base model influences the generation quality. Source code and tuned models are available at https://github.com/NLPForUA/ZNO.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

Quantization is a proven effective method for compressing large language models. Although popular techniques like W8A8 and W4A16 effectively maintain model performance, they often fail to concurrently speed up the prefill and decoding stages of inference. W4A8 is a promising strategy to accelerate both of them while usually leads to a significant performance degradation. To address these issues, we present QQQ, a Quality Quattuor-bit Quantization method with 4-bit weights and 8-bit activations. QQQ employs adaptive smoothing and Hessian-based compensation, significantly enhancing the performance of quantized models without extensive training. Furthermore, we meticulously engineer W4A8 GEMM kernels to increase inference speed. Our specialized per-channel W4A8 GEMM and per-group W4A8 GEMM achieve impressive speed increases of 3.67times and 3.29 times over FP16 GEMM. Our extensive experiments show that QQQ achieves performance on par with existing state-of-the-art LLM quantization methods while significantly accelerating inference, achieving speed boosts up to 2.24 times, 2.10times, and 1.25times compared to FP16, W8A8, and W4A16, respectively.

GPT series models, such as GPT-3, CodeX, InstructGPT, ChatGPT, and so on, have gained considerable attention due to their exceptional natural language processing capabilities. However, despite the abundance of research on the difference in capabilities between GPT series models and fine-tuned models, there has been limited attention given to the evolution of GPT series models' capabilities over time. To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the capabilities of GPT series models, we select six representative models, comprising two GPT-3 series models (i.e., davinci and text-davinci-001) and four GPT-3.5 series models (i.e., code-davinci-002, text-davinci-002, text-davinci-003, and gpt-3.5-turbo). We evaluate their performance on nine natural language understanding (NLU) tasks using 21 datasets. In particular, we compare the performance and robustness of different models for each task under zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Our extensive experiments reveal that the overall ability of GPT series models on NLU tasks does not increase gradually as the models evolve, especially with the introduction of the RLHF training strategy. While this strategy enhances the models' ability to generate human-like responses, it also compromises their ability to solve some tasks. Furthermore, our findings indicate that there is still room for improvement in areas such as model robustness.

The success of DeepSeek-R1 underscores the significant role of reinforcement learning (RL) in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). In this work, we present Skywork-OR1, an effective and scalable RL implementation for long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) models. Building on the DeepSeek-R1-Distill model series, our RL approach achieves notable performance gains, increasing average accuracy across AIME24, AIME25, and LiveCodeBench from 57.8% to 72.8% (+15.0%) for the 32B model and from 43.6% to 57.5% (+13.9%) for the 7B model. Our Skywork-OR1-32B model surpasses both DeepSeek-R1 and Qwen3-32B on the AIME24 and AIME25 benchmarks, while achieving comparable results on LiveCodeBench. The Skywork-OR1-7B and Skywork-OR1-Math-7B models demonstrate competitive reasoning capabilities among models of similar size. We perform comprehensive ablation studies on the core components of our training pipeline to validate their effectiveness. Additionally, we thoroughly investigate the phenomenon of entropy collapse, identify key factors affecting entropy dynamics, and demonstrate that mitigating premature entropy collapse is critical for improved test performance. To support community research, we fully open-source our model weights, training code, and training datasets.

We propose the Fourier Adaptive Lite Diffusion Architecture (FALDA), a novel probabilistic framework for time series forecasting. First, we introduce the Diffusion Model for Residual Regression (DMRR) framework, which unifies diffusion-based probabilistic regression methods. Within this framework, FALDA leverages Fourier-based decomposition to incorporate a component-specific architecture, enabling tailored modeling of individual temporal components. A conditional diffusion model is utilized to estimate the future noise term, while our proposed lightweight denoiser, DEMA (Decomposition MLP with AdaLN), conditions on the historical noise term to enhance denoising performance. Through mathematical analysis and empirical validation, we demonstrate that FALDA effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty, allowing probabilistic learning to primarily focus on aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on six real-world benchmarks demonstrate that FALDA consistently outperforms existing probabilistic forecasting approaches across most datasets for long-term time series forecasting while achieving enhanced computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. Notably, FALDA also achieves superior overall performance compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) point forecasting approaches, with improvements of up to 9%.

In symbolic regression, the goal is to find an analytical expression that accurately fits experimental data with the minimal use of mathematical symbols such as operators, variables, and constants. However, the combinatorial space of possible expressions can make it challenging for traditional evolutionary algorithms to find the correct expression in a reasonable amount of time. To address this issue, Neural Symbolic Regression (NSR) algorithms have been developed that can quickly identify patterns in the data and generate analytical expressions. However, these methods, in their current form, lack the capability to incorporate user-defined prior knowledge, which is often required in natural sciences and engineering fields. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel neural symbolic regression method, named Neural Symbolic Regression with Hypothesis (NSRwH) that enables the explicit incorporation of assumptions about the expected structure of the ground-truth expression into the prediction process. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed conditioned deep learning model outperforms its unconditioned counterparts in terms of accuracy while also providing control over the predicted expression structure.

Context lengths for models have grown rapidly, from thousands to millions of tokens in just a few years. The extreme context sizes of modern long-context models have made it difficult to construct realistic long-context benchmarks -- not only due to the cost of collecting million-context tasks but also in identifying realistic scenarios that require significant contexts. We identify code comprehension and repair as a natural testbed and challenge task for long-context models and introduce LongCodeBench (LCB), a benchmark to test LLM coding abilities in long-context scenarios. Our benchmark tests both the comprehension and repair capabilities of LCLMs in realistic and important settings by drawing from real-world GitHub issues and constructing QA (LongCodeQA) and bug fixing (LongSWE-Bench) tasks. We carefully stratify the complexity of our benchmark, enabling us to evaluate models across different scales -- ranging from Qwen2.5 14B Instruct to Google's flagship Gemini model. We find that long-context remains a weakness for all models, with performance drops such as from 29% to 3% for Claude 3.5 Sonnet, or from 70.2% to 40% for Qwen2.5.

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

The recent detection of nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds (SGWBs) by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) promises unique insights into astrophysical and cosmological origins. However, traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches become prohibitively expensive for large datasets. We employ a normalizing flow (NF)-based machine learning framework to accelerate Bayesian inference in PTA analyses. For the first time, we perform Bayesian model comparison across SGWB source models in the framework of machine learning by training NF architectures on the PTA dataset (NANOGrav 15-year) and enabling direct evidence estimation via learned harmonic mean estimators. Our examples include 10 conventional SGWB source models such as supermassive black hole binaries, power-law spectrum, cosmic strings, domain walls, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, and dual scenario/inflationary gravitational wave. Our approach jointly infers 20 red noise parameters and 2 SGWB parameters per model in sim 20\,hours (including training), compared to sim 10\,days with MCMC. Critically, the NF method preserves rigorous model selection accuracy, with small Hellinger distances (lesssim 0.3) relative to MCMC posteriors, and reproduces MCMC-based Bayes factors across all tested scenarios. This scalable technique for SGWB source comparison will be essential for future PTA expansions and next-generation arrays such as the SKA, offering orders-of-magnitude efficiency gains without sacrificing physical interpretability.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

Recent works have shown a reduction from contextual bandits to online regression under a realizability assumption [Foster and Rakhlin, 2020, Foster and Krishnamurthy, 2021]. In this work, we investigate the use of neural networks for such online regression and associated Neural Contextual Bandits (NeuCBs). Using existing results for wide networks, one can readily show a {O}(T) regret for online regression with square loss, which via the reduction implies a {O}(K T^{3/4}) regret for NeuCBs. Departing from this standard approach, we first show a O(log T) regret for online regression with almost convex losses that satisfy QG (Quadratic Growth) condition, a generalization of the PL (Polyak-\L ojasiewicz) condition, and that have a unique minima. Although not directly applicable to wide networks since they do not have unique minima, we show that adding a suitable small random perturbation to the network predictions surprisingly makes the loss satisfy QG with unique minima. Based on such a perturbed prediction, we show a {O}(log T) regret for online regression with both squared loss and KL loss, and subsequently convert these respectively to mathcal{O}(KT) and mathcal{O}(KL^* + K) regret for NeuCB, where L^* is the loss of the best policy. Separately, we also show that existing regret bounds for NeuCBs are Omega(T) or assume i.i.d. contexts, unlike this work. Finally, our experimental results on various datasets demonstrate that our algorithms, especially the one based on KL loss, persistently outperform existing algorithms.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

Recent open-source large reasoning models (LRMs) exhibit strong performance on complex reasoning tasks, but their large parameter count makes them prohibitively expensive for individuals. The compression of large language models (LLMs) offers an effective solution to reduce cost of computational resources. However, systematic studies on the performance of compressed LLMs in complex reasoning tasks, especially for LRMs, are lacking. Most works on quantization and pruning focus on preserving language modeling performance, while existing distillation works do not comprehensively benchmark student models based on reasoning difficulty or compression impact on knowledge and reasoning. In this paper, we benchmark compressed DeepSeek-R1 models on four different reasoning datasets (AIME 2024, FOLIO, Temporal Sequences of BIG-Bench Hard, and MuSiQue), ranging from mathematical to multihop reasoning, using quantization, distillation, and pruning methods. We benchmark 2.51-, 1.73-, and 1.58-bit R1 models that adopt dynamic quantization. We also benchmark distilled R1 models that are based on LLaMA or Qwen and run SparseGPT on them to obtain various sparsity levels. Studying the performance and behavior of compressed LRMs, we report their performance scores and test-time compute (number of tokens spent on each question). Notably, using MuSiQue, we find that parameter count has a much greater impact on LRMs' knowledge memorization than on their reasoning capability, which can inform the choice of compression techniques. Through our empirical analysis of test-time compute, we find that shorter model outputs generally achieve better performance than longer ones across several benchmarks for both R1 and its compressed variants, highlighting the need for more concise reasoning chains.

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Symbolic equations are at the core of scientific discovery. The task of discovering the underlying equation from a set of input-output pairs is called symbolic regression. Traditionally, symbolic regression methods use hand-designed strategies that do not improve with experience. In this paper, we introduce the first symbolic regression method that leverages large scale pre-training. We procedurally generate an unbounded set of equations, and simultaneously pre-train a Transformer to predict the symbolic equation from a corresponding set of input-output-pairs. At test time, we query the model on a new set of points and use its output to guide the search for the equation. We show empirically that this approach can re-discover a set of well-known physical equations, and that it improves over time with more data and compute.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has enabled the development of vision foundation models for Earth Observation (EO), demonstrating strong transferability across diverse remote sensing tasks. While prior work has focused on network architectures and training strategies, the role of dataset curation, especially in balancing and diversifying pre-training datasets, remains underexplored. In EO, this challenge is amplified by the redundancy and heavy-tailed distributions common in satellite imagery, which can lead to biased representations and inefficient training. In this work, we propose a dynamic dataset pruning strategy designed to improve SSL pre-training by maximizing dataset diversity and balance. Our method iteratively refines the training set without requiring a pre-existing feature extractor, making it well-suited for domains where curated datasets are limited or unavailable. We demonstrate our approach on the Sentinel-1 Wave Mode (WV) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) archive, a challenging dataset dominated by ocean observations. We train models from scratch on the entire Sentinel-1 WV archive spanning 10 years. Across three downstream tasks, our results show that dynamic pruning improves both computational efficiency and representation quality, leading to stronger transferability. We also release the weights of Nereus-SAR-1, the first model in the Nereus family, a series of foundation models for ocean observation and analysis using SAR imagery, at github.com/galeio-research/nereus-sar-models/.

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

In this paper, we propose a novel learning paradigm, termed Chain-of-Model (CoM), which incorporates the causal relationship into the hidden states of each layer as a chain style, thereby introducing great scaling efficiency in model training and inference flexibility in deployment. We introduce the concept of Chain-of-Representation (CoR), which formulates the hidden states at each layer as a combination of multiple sub-representations (i.e., chains) at the hidden dimension level. In each layer, each chain from the output representations can only view all of its preceding chains in the input representations. Consequently, the model built upon CoM framework can progressively scale up the model size by increasing the chains based on the previous models (i.e., chains), and offer multiple sub-models at varying sizes for elastic inference by using different chain numbers. Based on this principle, we devise Chain-of-Language-Model (CoLM), which incorporates the idea of CoM into each layer of Transformer architecture. Based on CoLM, we further introduce CoLM-Air by introducing a KV sharing mechanism, that computes all keys and values within the first chain and then shares across all chains. This design demonstrates additional extensibility, such as enabling seamless LM switching, prefilling acceleration and so on. Experimental results demonstrate our CoLM family can achieve comparable performance to the standard Transformer, while simultaneously enabling greater flexiblity, such as progressive scaling to improve training efficiency and offer multiple varying model sizes for elastic inference, paving a a new way toward building language models. Our code will be released in the future at: https://github.com/microsoft/CoLM.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated a remarkable ability to model time series data. These capabilities can be partly explained if LLMs understand basic time series concepts. However, our knowledge of what these models understand about time series data remains relatively limited. To address this gap, we introduce TimeSeriesExam, a configurable and scalable multiple-choice question exam designed to assess LLMs across five core time series understanding categories: pattern recognition, noise understanding, similarity analysis, anomaly detection, and causality analysis. TimeSeriesExam comprises of over 700 questions, procedurally generated using 104 carefully curated templates and iteratively refined to balance difficulty and their ability to discriminate good from bad models. We test 7 state-of-the-art LLMs on the TimeSeriesExam and provide the first comprehensive evaluation of their time series understanding abilities. Our results suggest that closed-source models such as GPT-4 and Gemini understand simple time series concepts significantly better than their open-source counterparts, while all models struggle with complex concepts such as causality analysis. We believe that the ability to programatically generate questions is fundamental to assessing and improving LLM's ability to understand and reason about time series data.

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

A wide range of deep learning-based machine learning techniques are extensively applied to the design of high-entropy alloys (HEAs), yielding numerous valuable insights. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) is a recently developed architecture that aims to improve both the accuracy and interpretability of input features. In this work, we explore three different datasets for HEA design and demonstrate the application of KAN for both classification and regression models. In the first example, we use a KAN classification model to predict the probability of single-phase formation in high-entropy carbide ceramics based on various properties such as mixing enthalpy and valence electron concentration. In the second example, we employ a KAN regression model to predict the yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of HEAs based on their chemical composition and process conditions including annealing time, cold rolling percentage, and homogenization temperature. The third example involves a KAN classification model to determine whether a certain composition is an HEA or non-HEA, followed by a KAN regressor model to predict the bulk modulus of the identified HEA, aiming to identify HEAs with high bulk modulus. In all three examples, KAN either outperform or match the performance in terms of accuracy such as F1 score for classification and Mean Square Error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for regression of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) by demonstrating the efficacy of KAN in handling both classification and regression tasks. We provide a promising direction for future research to explore advanced machine learning techniques, which lead to more accurate predictions and better interpretability of complex materials, ultimately accelerating the discovery and optimization of HEAs with desirable properties.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

While neural networks can be approximated by linear models as their width increases, certain properties of wide neural networks cannot be captured by linear models. In this work we show that recently proposed Neural Quadratic Models can exhibit the "catapult phase" [Lewkowycz et al. 2020] that arises when training such models with large learning rates. We then empirically show that the behaviour of neural quadratic models parallels that of neural networks in generalization, especially in the catapult phase regime. Our analysis further demonstrates that quadratic models can be an effective tool for analysis of neural networks.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as popular mesh-free solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs). Recent extensions decompose the domain, applying different PINNs to solve the equation in each subdomain and aligning the solution at the interface of the subdomains. Hence, they can further alleviate the problem complexity, reduce the computational cost, and allow parallelization. However, the performance of the multi-domain PINNs is sensitive to the choice of the interface conditions for solution alignment. While quite a few conditions have been proposed, there is no suggestion about how to select the conditions according to specific problems. To address this gap, we propose META Learning of Interface Conditions (METALIC), a simple, efficient yet powerful approach to dynamically determine the optimal interface conditions for solving a family of parametric PDEs. Specifically, we develop two contextual multi-arm bandit models. The first one applies to the entire training procedure, and online updates a Gaussian process (GP) reward surrogate that given the PDE parameters and interface conditions predicts the solution error. The second one partitions the training into two stages, one is the stochastic phase and the other deterministic phase; we update a GP surrogate for each phase to enable different condition selections at the two stages so as to further bolster the flexibility and performance. We have shown the advantage of METALIC on four bench-mark PDE families.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

Negative binomial regression is essential for analyzing over-dispersed count data in in comparative studies, but parameter estimation becomes computationally challenging in large screens requiring millions of comparisons. We investigate using a pre-trained transformer to produce estimates of negative binomial regression parameters from observed count data, trained through synthetic data generation to learn to invert the process of generating counts from parameters. The transformer method achieved better parameter accuracy than maximum likelihood optimization while being 20 times faster. However, comparisons unexpectedly revealed that method of moment estimates performed as well as maximum likelihood optimization in accuracy, while being 1,000 times faster and producing better-calibrated and more powerful tests, making it the most efficient solution for this application.

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.