Daily Papers

This work presents mixed variational flows (MixFlows), a new variational family that consists of a mixture of repeated applications of a map to an initial reference distribution. First, we provide efficient algorithms for i.i.d. sampling, density evaluation, and unbiased ELBO estimation. We then show that MixFlows have MCMC-like convergence guarantees when the flow map is ergodic and measure-preserving, and provide bounds on the accumulation of error for practical implementations where the flow map is approximated. Finally, we develop an implementation of MixFlows based on uncorrected discretized Hamiltonian dynamics combined with deterministic momentum refreshment. Simulated and real data experiments show that MixFlows can provide more reliable posterior approximations than several black-box normalizing flows, as well as samples of comparable quality to those obtained from state-of-the-art MCMC methods.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

We study the problem of approximate sampling from non-log-concave distributions, e.g., Gaussian mixtures, which is often challenging even in low dimensions due to their multimodality. We focus on performing this task via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods derived from discretizations of the overdamped Langevin diffusions, which are commonly known as Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms. Furthermore, we are also interested in two nonsmooth cases for which a large class of proximal MCMC methods have been developed: (i) a nonsmooth prior is considered with a Gaussian mixture likelihood; (ii) a Laplacian mixture distribution. Such nonsmooth and non-log-concave sampling tasks arise from a wide range of applications to Bayesian inference and imaging inverse problems such as image deconvolution. We perform numerical simulations to compare the performance of most commonly used Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms.

Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.

Stochastic gradient MCMC methods, such as stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), employ fast but noisy gradient estimates to enable large-scale posterior sampling. Although we can easily extend SGLD to distributed settings, it suffers from two issues when applied to federated non-IID data. First, the variance of these estimates increases significantly. Second, delaying communication causes the Markov chains to diverge from the true posterior even for very simple models. To alleviate both these problems, we propose conducive gradients, a simple mechanism that combines local likelihood approximations to correct gradient updates. Notably, conducive gradients are easy to compute, and since we only calculate the approximations once, they incur negligible overhead. We apply conducive gradients to distributed stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (DSGLD) and call the resulting method federated stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (FSGLD). We demonstrate that our approach can handle delayed communication rounds, converging to the target posterior in cases where DSGLD fails. We also show that FSGLD outperforms DSGLD for non-IID federated data with experiments on metric learning and neural networks.

Diffusion models are powerful generative models that simulate the reverse of diffusion processes using score functions to synthesize data from noise. The sampling process of diffusion models can be interpreted as solving the reverse stochastic differential equation (SDE) or the ordinary differential equation (ODE) of the diffusion process, which often requires up to thousands of discretization steps to generate a single image. This has sparked a great interest in developing efficient integration techniques for reverse-S/ODEs. Here, we propose an orthogonal approach to accelerating score-based sampling: Denoising MCMC (DMCMC). DMCMC first uses MCMC to produce samples in the product space of data and variance (or diffusion time). Then, a reverse-S/ODE integrator is used to denoise the MCMC samples. Since MCMC traverses close to the data manifold, the computation cost of producing a clean sample for DMCMC is much less than that of producing a clean sample from noise. To verify the proposed concept, we show that Denoising Langevin Gibbs (DLG), an instance of DMCMC, successfully accelerates all six reverse-S/ODE integrators considered in this work on the tasks of CIFAR10 and CelebA-HQ-256 image generation. Notably, combined with integrators of Karras et al. (2022) and pre-trained score models of Song et al. (2021b), DLG achieves SOTA results. In the limited number of score function evaluation (NFE) settings on CIFAR10, we have 3.86 FID with approx 10 NFE and 2.63 FID with approx 20 NFE. On CelebA-HQ-256, we have 6.99 FID with approx 160 NFE, which beats the current best record of Kim et al. (2022) among score-based models, 7.16 FID with 4000 NFE. Code: https://github.com/1202kbs/DMCMC

What do auto-encoders learn about the underlying data generating distribution? Recent work suggests that some auto-encoder variants do a good job of capturing the local manifold structure of data. This paper clarifies some of these previous observations by showing that minimizing a particular form of regularized reconstruction error yields a reconstruction function that locally characterizes the shape of the data generating density. We show that the auto-encoder captures the score (derivative of the log-density with respect to the input). It contradicts previous interpretations of reconstruction error as an energy function. Unlike previous results, the theorems provided here are completely generic and do not depend on the parametrization of the auto-encoder: they show what the auto-encoder would tend to if given enough capacity and examples. These results are for a contractive training criterion we show to be similar to the denoising auto-encoder training criterion with small corruption noise, but with contraction applied on the whole reconstruction function rather than just encoder. Similarly to score matching, one can consider the proposed training criterion as a convenient alternative to maximum likelihood because it does not involve a partition function. Finally, we show how an approximate Metropolis-Hastings MCMC can be setup to recover samples from the estimated distribution, and this is confirmed in sampling experiments.

We study a family of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms where gradients are sampled by a token traversing a network of agents in random-walk fashion. Typically, these random-walks are chosen to be Markov chains that asymptotically sample from a desired target distribution, and play a critical role in the convergence of the optimization iterates. In this paper, we take a novel approach by replacing the standard linear Markovian token by one which follows a nonlinear Markov chain - namely the Self-Repellent Radom Walk (SRRW). Defined for any given 'base' Markov chain, the SRRW, parameterized by a positive scalar {\alpha}, is less likely to transition to states that were highly visited in the past, thus the name. In the context of MCMC sampling on a graph, a recent breakthrough in Doshi et al. (2023) shows that the SRRW achieves O(1/{\alpha}) decrease in the asymptotic variance for sampling. We propose the use of a 'generalized' version of the SRRW to drive token algorithms for distributed stochastic optimization in the form of stochastic approximation, termed SA-SRRW. We prove that the optimization iterate errors of the resulting SA-SRRW converge to zero almost surely and prove a central limit theorem, deriving the explicit form of the resulting asymptotic covariance matrix corresponding to iterate errors. This asymptotic covariance is always smaller than that of an algorithm driven by the base Markov chain and decreases at rate O(1/{\alpha}^2) - the performance benefit of using SRRW thereby amplified in the stochastic optimization context. Empirical results support our theoretical findings.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

Posterior sampling, i.e., exponential mechanism to sample from the posterior distribution, provides varepsilon-pure differential privacy (DP) guarantees and does not suffer from potentially unbounded privacy breach introduced by (varepsilon,delta)-approximate DP. In practice, however, one needs to apply approximate sampling methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), thus re-introducing the unappealing delta-approximation error into the privacy guarantees. To bridge this gap, we propose the Approximate SAample Perturbation (abbr. ASAP) algorithm which perturbs an MCMC sample with noise proportional to its Wasserstein-infinity (W_infty) distance from a reference distribution that satisfies pure DP or pure Gaussian DP (i.e., delta=0). We then leverage a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate the sample and prove that the algorithm converges in W_infty distance. We show that by combining our new techniques with a careful localization step, we obtain the first nearly linear-time algorithm that achieves the optimal rates in the DP-ERM problem with strongly convex and smooth losses.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

We propose efficient Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling distributions with nonsmooth convex composite potentials, which is the sum of a continuously differentiable function and a possibly nonsmooth function. We devise such algorithms leveraging recent advances in convex analysis and optimization methods involving Bregman divergences, namely the Bregman--Moreau envelopes and the Bregman proximity operators, and in the Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms reminiscent of mirror descent. The proposed algorithms extend existing Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms in two aspects -- the ability to sample nonsmooth distributions with mirror descent-like algorithms, and the use of the more general Bregman--Moreau envelope in place of the Moreau envelope as a smooth approximation of the nonsmooth part of the potential. A particular case of the proposed scheme is reminiscent of the Bregman proximal gradient algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is illustrated with various sampling tasks at which existing Langevin Monte Carlo methods are known to perform poorly.

We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We present two methods to use the martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms. The first one minimizes a "martingale loss function", whose solution is proved to be the best approximation of the true value function in the mean--square sense. This method interprets the classical gradient Monte-Carlo algorithm. The second method is based on a system of equations called the "martingale orthogonality conditions" with test functions. Solving these equations in different ways recovers various classical TD algorithms, such as TD(lambda), LSTD, and GTD. Different choices of test functions determine in what sense the resulting solutions approximate the true value function. Moreover, we prove that any convergent time-discretized algorithm converges to its continuous-time counterpart as the mesh size goes to zero, and we provide the convergence rate. We demonstrate the theoretical results and corresponding algorithms with numerical experiments and applications.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for learning from complex data and reasoning under uncertainty. It has been widely applied in machine learning tasks such as medical diagnosis, drug design, and policymaking. In these common applications, data can be highly sensitive. Differential privacy (DP) offers data analysis tools with powerful worst-case privacy guarantees and has been developed as the leading approach in privacy-preserving data analysis. In this paper, we study Metropolis-Hastings (MH), one of the most fundamental MCMC methods, for large-scale Bayesian inference under differential privacy. While most existing private MCMC algorithms sacrifice accuracy and efficiency to obtain privacy, we provide the first exact and fast DP MH algorithm, using only a minibatch of data in most iterations. We further reveal, for the first time, a three-way trade-off among privacy, scalability (i.e. the batch size), and efficiency (i.e. the convergence rate), theoretically characterizing how privacy affects the utility and computational cost in Bayesian inference. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our algorithm in various experiments.

We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the improved performance of our proposed algorithm over existing ones.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Inspired by the latest developments in multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods and randomised sketching for linear algebra problems we propose a MLMC estimator for real-time processing of matrix structured random data. Our algorithm is particularly effective in handling high-dimensional inner products and matrix multiplication, in applications of image analysis and large-scale supervised learning.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have emerged as a powerful framework in the realm of generative modeling, offering a unique perspective that aligns closely with principles of statistical mechanics. This review aims to provide physicists with a comprehensive understanding of EBMs, delineating their connection to other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Normalizing Flows. We explore the sampling techniques crucial for EBMs, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and draw parallels between EBM concepts and statistical mechanics, highlighting the significance of energy functions and partition functions. Furthermore, we delve into state-of-the-art training methodologies for EBMs, covering recent advancements and their implications for enhanced model performance and efficiency. This review is designed to clarify the often complex interconnections between these models, which can be challenging due to the diverse communities working on the topic.

This work considers a rather general and broad class of Markov chains, Ito chains that look like Euler-Maryama discretization of some Stochastic Differential Equation. The chain we study is a unified framework for theoretical analysis. It comes with almost arbitrary isotropic and state-dependent noise instead of normal and state-independent one, as in most related papers. Moreover, our chain's drift and diffusion coefficient can be inexact to cover a wide range of applications such as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics, sampling, Stochastic Gradient Descent, or Stochastic Gradient Boosting. We prove an upper bound for W_{2}-distance between laws of the Ito chain and the corresponding Stochastic Differential Equation. These results improve or cover most of the known estimates. Moreover, for some particular cases, our analysis is the first.

We introduce a new family of particle evolution samplers suitable for constrained domains and non-Euclidean geometries. Stein Variational Mirror Descent and Mirrored Stein Variational Gradient Descent minimize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to constrained target distributions by evolving particles in a dual space defined by a mirror map. Stein Variational Natural Gradient exploits non-Euclidean geometry to more efficiently minimize the KL divergence to unconstrained targets. We derive these samplers from a new class of mirrored Stein operators and adaptive kernels developed in this work. We demonstrate that these new samplers yield accurate approximations to distributions on the simplex, deliver valid confidence intervals in post-selection inference, and converge more rapidly than prior methods in large-scale unconstrained posterior inference. Finally, we establish the convergence of our new procedures under verifiable conditions on the target distribution.

Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to obtain spiking activity of multiple neurons from different brain regions over long time periods, which requires new statistical methods to be developed for understanding structure of the large-scale data. In this paper, we develop a bi-clustering method to cluster the neural spiking activity spatially and temporally, according to their low-dimensional latent structures. The spatial (neuron) clusters are defined by the latent trajectories within each neural population, while the temporal (state) clusters are defined by (populationally) synchronous local linear dynamics shared with different periods. To flexibly extract the bi-clustering structure, we build the model non-parametrically, and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample the posterior distributions of model parameters. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find the method can recover unknown parameters and true bi-clustering structures successfully. We then apply the proposed bi-clustering method to multi-regional neural recordings under different experiment settings, where we find that simultaneously considering latent trajectories and spatial-temporal clustering structures can provide us with a more accurate and interpretable result. Overall, the proposed method provides scientific insights for large-scale (counting) time series with elongated recording periods, and it can potentially have application beyond neuroscience.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

We present a scalable and effective exploration strategy based on Thompson sampling for reinforcement learning (RL). One of the key shortcomings of existing Thompson sampling algorithms is the need to perform a Gaussian approximation of the posterior distribution, which is not a good surrogate in most practical settings. We instead directly sample the Q function from its posterior distribution, by using Langevin Monte Carlo, an efficient type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Our method only needs to perform noisy gradient descent updates to learn the exact posterior distribution of the Q function, which makes our approach easy to deploy in deep RL. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis for the proposed method and demonstrate that, in the linear Markov decision process (linear MDP) setting, it has a regret bound of O(d^{3/2}H^{3/2}T), where d is the dimension of the feature mapping, H is the planning horizon, and T is the total number of steps. We apply this approach to deep RL, by using Adam optimizer to perform gradient updates. Our approach achieves better or similar results compared with state-of-the-art deep RL algorithms on several challenging exploration tasks from the Atari57 suite.

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity bounds are more accurate and less studied than in-expectation ones. However, SOTA high-probability non-asymptotic convergence results are derived under strong assumptions such as the boundedness of the gradient noise variance or of the objective's gradient itself. In this paper, we propose several algorithms with high-probability convergence results under less restrictive assumptions. In particular, we derive new high-probability convergence results under the assumption that the gradient/operator noise has bounded central alpha-th moment for alpha in (1,2] in the following setups: (i) smooth non-convex / Polyak-Lojasiewicz / convex / strongly convex / quasi-strongly convex minimization problems, (ii) Lipschitz / star-cocoercive and monotone / quasi-strongly monotone variational inequalities. These results justify the usage of the considered methods for solving problems that do not fit standard functional classes studied in stochastic optimization.

We introduced a novel method to solve Bayesian inverse problems governed by PDE equations with a hybrid two-level MCMC where we took advantage of the AI surrogate model speed and the accuracy of numerical models. We show theoretically the potential to solve Bayesian inverse problems accurately with only a small number of numerical samples when the AI surrogate model error is small. Several numerical experiment results are included which demonstrates the advantage of the hybrid method.

Recent work has shown how denoising and contractive autoencoders implicitly capture the structure of the data-generating density, in the case where the corruption noise is Gaussian, the reconstruction error is the squared error, and the data is continuous-valued. This has led to various proposals for sampling from this implicitly learned density function, using Langevin and Metropolis-Hastings MCMC. However, it remained unclear how to connect the training procedure of regularized auto-encoders to the implicit estimation of the underlying data-generating distribution when the data are discrete, or using other forms of corruption process and reconstruction errors. Another issue is the mathematical justification which is only valid in the limit of small corruption noise. We propose here a different attack on the problem, which deals with all these issues: arbitrary (but noisy enough) corruption, arbitrary reconstruction loss (seen as a log-likelihood), handling both discrete and continuous-valued variables, and removing the bias due to non-infinitesimal corruption noise (or non-infinitesimal contractive penalty).

A graph homomorphism is a map between two graphs that preserves adjacency relations. We consider the problem of sampling a random graph homomorphism from a graph into a large network. We propose two complementary MCMC algorithms for sampling random graph homomorphisms and establish bounds on their mixing times and the concentration of their time averages. Based on our sampling algorithms, we propose a novel framework for network data analysis that circumvents some of the drawbacks in methods based on independent and neighborhood sampling. Various time averages of the MCMC trajectory give us various computable observables, including well-known ones such as homomorphism density and average clustering coefficient and their generalizations. Furthermore, we show that these network observables are stable with respect to a suitably renormalized cut distance between networks. We provide various examples and simulations demonstrating our framework through synthetic networks. We also demonstrate the performance of our framework on the tasks of network clustering and subgraph classification on the Facebook100 dataset and on Word Adjacency Networks of a set of classic novels.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.

Underlying data structures, such as symmetries or invariances to transformations, are often exploited to improve the solution of learning tasks. However, embedding these properties in models or learning algorithms can be challenging and computationally intensive. Data augmentation, on the other hand, induces these symmetries during training by applying multiple transformations to the input data. Despite its ubiquity, its effectiveness depends on the choices of which transformations to apply, when to do so, and how often. In fact, there is both empirical and theoretical evidence that the indiscriminate use of data augmentation can introduce biases that outweigh its benefits. This work tackles these issues by automatically adapting the data augmentation while solving the learning task. To do so, it formulates data augmentation as an invariance-constrained learning problem and leverages Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling to solve it. The result is a practical algorithm that not only does away with a priori searches for augmentation distributions, but also dynamically controls if and when data augmentation is applied. Our experiments illustrate the performance of this method, which achieves state-of-the-art results in automatic data augmentation benchmarks for CIFAR datasets. Furthermore, this approach can be used to gather insights on the actual symmetries underlying a learning task.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Many existing reinforcement learning (RL) methods employ stochastic gradient iteration on the back end, whose stability hinges upon a hypothesis that the data-generating process mixes exponentially fast with a rate parameter that appears in the step-size selection. Unfortunately, this assumption is violated for large state spaces or settings with sparse rewards, and the mixing time is unknown, making the step size inoperable. In this work, we propose an RL methodology attuned to the mixing time by employing a multi-level Monte Carlo estimator for the critic, the actor, and the average reward embedded within an actor-critic (AC) algorithm. This method, which we call Multi-level Actor-Critic (MAC), is developed especially for infinite-horizon average-reward settings and neither relies on oracle knowledge of the mixing time in its parameter selection nor assumes its exponential decay; it, therefore, is readily applicable to applications with slower mixing times. Nonetheless, it achieves a convergence rate comparable to the state-of-the-art AC algorithms. We experimentally show that these alleviated restrictions on the technical conditions required for stability translate to superior performance in practice for RL problems with sparse rewards.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Monte Carlo (MC) integration has been employed as the standard approximation method for the Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance, whose analytical expression involves an intractable expectation. However, MC integration is not optimal in terms of absolute approximation error. To provide a better class of empirical SW, we propose quasi-sliced Wasserstein (QSW) approximations that rely on Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. For a comprehensive investigation of QMC for SW, we focus on the 3D setting, specifically computing the SW between probability measures in three dimensions. In greater detail, we empirically evaluate various methods to construct QMC point sets on the 3D unit-hypersphere, including the Gaussian-based and equal area mappings, generalized spiral points, and optimizing discrepancy energies. Furthermore, to obtain an unbiased estimator for stochastic optimization, we extend QSW to Randomized Quasi-Sliced Wasserstein (RQSW) by introducing randomness in the discussed point sets. Theoretically, we prove the asymptotic convergence of QSW and the unbiasedness of RQSW. Finally, we conduct experiments on various 3D tasks, such as point-cloud comparison, point-cloud interpolation, image style transfer, and training deep point-cloud autoencoders, to demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed QSW and RQSW variants.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

We resolve difficulties in training and sampling from a discrete generative model by learning a smoothed energy function, sampling from the smoothed data manifold with Langevin Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and projecting back to the true data manifold with one-step denoising. Our Discrete Walk-Jump Sampling formalism combines the contrastive divergence training of an energy-based model and improved sample quality of a score-based model, while simplifying training and sampling by requiring only a single noise level. We evaluate the robustness of our approach on generative modeling of antibody proteins and introduce the distributional conformity score to benchmark protein generative models. By optimizing and sampling from our models for the proposed distributional conformity score, 97-100% of generated samples are successfully expressed and purified and 70% of functional designs show equal or improved binding affinity compared to known functional antibodies on the first attempt in a single round of laboratory experiments. We also report the first demonstration of long-run fast-mixing MCMC chains where diverse antibody protein classes are visited in a single MCMC chain.

We propose and theoretically analyze an approach for planning with an approximate model in reinforcement learning that can reduce the adverse impact of model error. If the model is accurate enough, it accelerates the convergence to the true value function too. One of its key components is the MaxEnt Model Correction (MoCo) procedure that corrects the model's next-state distributions based on a Maximum Entropy density estimation formulation. Based on MoCo, we introduce the Model Correcting Value Iteration (MoCoVI) algorithm, and its sampled-based variant MoCoDyna. We show that MoCoVI and MoCoDyna's convergence can be much faster than the conventional model-free algorithms. Unlike traditional model-based algorithms, MoCoVI and MoCoDyna effectively utilize an approximate model and still converge to the correct value function.

A Milstein-type method is proposed for some highly non-linear non-autonomous time-changed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The spatial variables in the coefficients of the time-changed SDEs satisfy the super-linear growth condition and the temporal variables obey some H\"older's continuity condition. The strong convergence in the finite time is studied and the convergence order is obtained.

We propose a new method called the N-particle underdamped Langevin algorithm for optimizing a special class of non-linear functionals defined over the space of probability measures. Examples of problems with this formulation include training mean-field neural networks, maximum mean discrepancy minimization and kernel Stein discrepancy minimization. Our algorithm is based on a novel spacetime discretization of the mean-field underdamped Langevin dynamics, for which we provide a new, fast mixing guarantee. In addition, we demonstrate that our algorithm converges globally in total variation distance, bridging the theoretical gap between the dynamics and its practical implementation.

Score-based diffusion models, while achieving remarkable empirical performance, often suffer from low sampling speed, due to extensive function evaluations needed during the sampling phase. Despite a flurry of recent activities towards speeding up diffusion generative modeling in practice, theoretical underpinnings for acceleration techniques remain severely limited. In this paper, we design novel training-free algorithms to accelerate popular deterministic (i.e., DDIM) and stochastic (i.e., DDPM) samplers. Our accelerated deterministic sampler converges at a rate O(1/{T}^2) with T the number of steps, improving upon the O(1/T) rate for the DDIM sampler; and our accelerated stochastic sampler converges at a rate O(1/T), outperforming the rate O(1/T) for the DDPM sampler. The design of our algorithms leverages insights from higher-order approximation, and shares similar intuitions as popular high-order ODE solvers like the DPM-Solver-2. Our theory accommodates ell_2-accurate score estimates, and does not require log-concavity or smoothness on the target distribution.

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the losses. In machine learning, such a risk measure is useful to train more robust models. Although the stochastic subgradient method (SGM) is a natural choice for minimizing the CVaR objective, we show that our stochastic prox-linear (SPL+) algorithm can better exploit the structure of the objective, while still providing a convenient closed form update. Our SPL+ method also adapts to the scaling of the loss function, which allows for easier tuning. We then specialize a general convergence theorem for SPL+ to our setting, and show that it allows for a wider selection of step sizes compared to SGM. We support this theoretical finding experimentally.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tackles sequential decision-making problems by creating agents that interacts with their environment. However, existing algorithms often view these problem as static, focusing on point estimates for model parameters to maximize expected rewards, neglecting the stochastic dynamics of agent-environment interactions and the critical role of uncertainty quantification. Our research leverages the Kalman filtering paradigm to introduce a novel and scalable sampling algorithm called Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) for deep reinforcement learning. This algorithm, grounded in Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC), efficiently draws samples from the posterior distribution of deep neural network parameters. Under mild conditions, we prove that the posterior samples generated by the LKTD algorithm converge to a stationary distribution. This convergence not only enables us to quantify uncertainties associated with the value function and model parameters but also allows us to monitor these uncertainties during policy updates throughout the training phase. The LKTD algorithm paves the way for more robust and adaptable reinforcement learning approaches.

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

Since their introduction, diffusion models have quickly become the prevailing approach to generative modeling in many domains. They can be interpreted as learning the gradients of a time-varying sequence of log-probability density functions. This interpretation has motivated classifier-based and classifier-free guidance as methods for post-hoc control of diffusion models. In this work, we build upon these ideas using the score-based interpretation of diffusion models, and explore alternative ways to condition, modify, and reuse diffusion models for tasks involving compositional generation and guidance. In particular, we investigate why certain types of composition fail using current techniques and present a number of solutions. We conclude that the sampler (not the model) is responsible for this failure and propose new samplers, inspired by MCMC, which enable successful compositional generation. Further, we propose an energy-based parameterization of diffusion models which enables the use of new compositional operators and more sophisticated, Metropolis-corrected samplers. Intriguingly we find these samplers lead to notable improvements in compositional generation across a wide set of problems such as classifier-guided ImageNet modeling and compositional text-to-image generation.

We investigate a general formulation for clustering and transductive few-shot learning, which integrates prototype-based objectives, Laplacian regularization and supervision constraints from a few labeled data points. We propose a concave-convex relaxation of the problem, and derive a computationally efficient block-coordinate bound optimizer, with convergence guarantee. At each iteration,our optimizer computes independent (parallel) updates for each point-to-cluster assignment. Therefore, it could be trivially distributed for large-scale clustering and few-shot tasks. Furthermore, we provides a thorough convergence analysis based on point-to-set maps. Were port comprehensive clustering and few-shot learning experiments over various data sets, showing that our method yields competitive performances, in term of accuracy and optimization quality, while scaling up to large problems. Using standard training on the base classes, without resorting to complex meta-learning and episodic-training strategies, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art few-shot methods by significant margins, across various models, settings and data sets. Surprisingly, we found that even standard clustering procedures (e.g., K-means), which correspond to particular, non-regularized cases of our general model, already achieve competitive performances in comparison to the state-of-the-art in few-shot learning. These surprising results point to the limitations of the current few-shot benchmarks, and question the viability of a large body of convoluted few-shot learning techniques in the recent literature.

In recent years, denoising diffusion models have become a crucial area of research due to their abundance in the rapidly expanding field of generative AI. While recent statistical advances have delivered explanations for the generation ability of idealised denoising diffusion models for high-dimensional target data, implementations introduce thresholding procedures for the generating process to overcome issues arising from the unbounded state space of such models. This mismatch between theoretical design and implementation of diffusion models has been addressed empirically by using a reflected diffusion process as the driver of noise instead. In this paper, we study statistical guarantees of these denoising reflected diffusion models. In particular, we establish minimax optimal rates of convergence in total variation, up to a polylogarithmic factor, under Sobolev smoothness assumptions. Our main contributions include the statistical analysis of this novel class of denoising reflected diffusion models and a refined score approximation method in both time and space, leveraging spectral decomposition and rigorous neural network analysis.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

This paper concerns a long-range random walk in random environment in dimension 1+1, where the environmental disorder is independent in space but has long-range correlations in time. We prove that two types of rescaled partition functions converge weakly to the Stratonovich solution and the It\^o-Skorohod solution respectively of a fractional stochastic heat equation with multiplicative Gaussian noise which is white in space and colored in time.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

We prove new convergence rates for a generalized version of stochastic Nesterov acceleration under interpolation conditions. Unlike previous analyses, our approach accelerates any stochastic gradient method which makes sufficient progress in expectation. The proof, which proceeds using the estimating sequences framework, applies to both convex and strongly convex functions and is easily specialized to accelerated SGD under the strong growth condition. In this special case, our analysis reduces the dependence on the strong growth constant from rho to rho as compared to prior work. This improvement is comparable to a square-root of the condition number in the worst case and address criticism that guarantees for stochastic acceleration could be worse than those for SGD.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In this paper, we propose a distributed sampling scheme based on the alternating direction method of multipliers, which is commonly used in the optimization literature due to its fast convergence. In contrast to distributed optimization, distributed sampling allows for uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference tasks. We provide both theoretical guarantees of our algorithm's convergence and experimental evidence of its superiority to the state-of-the-art. For our theoretical results, we use convex optimization tools to establish a fundamental inequality on the generated local sample iterates. This inequality enables us to show convergence of the distribution associated with these iterates to the underlying target distribution in Wasserstein distance. In simulation, we deploy our algorithm on linear and logistic regression tasks and illustrate its fast convergence compared to existing gradient-based methods.

Bayesian approaches for learning deep neural networks (BNN) have been received much attention and successfully applied to various applications. Particularly, BNNs have the merit of having better generalization ability as well as better uncertainty quantification. For the success of BNN, search an appropriate architecture of the neural networks is an important task, and various algorithms to find good sparse neural networks have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a new node-sparse BNN model which has good theoretical properties and is computationally feasible. We prove that the posterior concentration rate to the true model is near minimax optimal and adaptive to the smoothness of the true model. In particular the adaptiveness is the first of its kind for node-sparse BNNs. In addition, we develop a novel MCMC algorithm which makes the Bayesian inference of the node-sparse BNN model feasible in practice.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and risk-sensitive MDPs are both powerful tools for making decisions in the presence of uncertainties. Previous efforts have aimed to establish their connections, revealing equivalences in specific formulations. This paper introduces a new formulation for risk-sensitive MDPs, which assesses risk in a slightly different manner compared to the classical Markov risk measure (Ruszczy\'nski 2010), and establishes its equivalence with a class of regularized robust MDP (RMDP) problems, including the standard RMDP as a special case. Leveraging this equivalence, we further derive the policy gradient theorem for both problems, proving gradient domination and global convergence of the exact policy gradient method under the tabular setting with direct parameterization. This forms a sharp contrast to the Markov risk measure, known to be potentially non-gradient-dominant (Huang et al. 2021). We also propose a sample-based offline learning algorithm, namely the robust fitted-Z iteration (RFZI), for a specific regularized RMDP problem with a KL-divergence regularization term (or equivalently the risk-sensitive MDP with an entropy risk measure). We showcase its streamlined design and less stringent assumptions due to the equivalence and analyze its sample complexity.

We provide a theoretical framework for Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF). Our analysis shows that when the true reward function is linear, the widely used maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) converges under both the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model and the Plackett-Luce (PL) model. However, we show that when training a policy based on the learned reward model, MLE fails while a pessimistic MLE provides policies with improved performance under certain coverage assumptions. Additionally, we demonstrate that under the PL model, the true MLE and an alternative MLE that splits the K-wise comparison into pairwise comparisons both converge. Moreover, the true MLE is asymptotically more efficient. Our results validate the empirical success of existing RLHF algorithms in InstructGPT and provide new insights for algorithm design. Furthermore, our results unify the problem of RLHF and max-entropy Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), and provide the first sample complexity bound for max-entropy IRL.

Computing the optimal transport distance between statistical distributions is a fundamental task in machine learning. One remarkable recent advancement is entropic regularization and the Sinkhorn algorithm, which utilizes only matrix scaling and guarantees an approximated solution with near-linear runtime. Despite the success of the Sinkhorn algorithm, its runtime may still be slow due to the potentially large number of iterations needed for convergence. To achieve possibly super-exponential convergence, we present Sinkhorn-Newton-Sparse (SNS), an extension to the Sinkhorn algorithm, by introducing early stopping for the matrix scaling steps and a second stage featuring a Newton-type subroutine. Adopting the variational viewpoint that the Sinkhorn algorithm maximizes a concave Lyapunov potential, we offer the insight that the Hessian matrix of the potential function is approximately sparse. Sparsification of the Hessian results in a fast O(n^2) per-iteration complexity, the same as the Sinkhorn algorithm. In terms of total iteration count, we observe that the SNS algorithm converges orders of magnitude faster across a wide range of practical cases, including optimal transportation between empirical distributions and calculating the Wasserstein W_1, W_2 distance of discretized densities. The empirical performance is corroborated by a rigorous bound on the approximate sparsity of the Hessian matrix.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.

In this paper, we extend mean-field Langevin dynamics to minimax optimization over probability distributions for the first time with symmetric and provably convergent updates. We propose mean-field Langevin averaged gradient (MFL-AG), a single-loop algorithm that implements gradient descent ascent in the distribution spaces with a novel weighted averaging, and establish average-iterate convergence to the mixed Nash equilibrium. We also study both time and particle discretization regimes and prove a new uniform-in-time propagation of chaos result which accounts for the dependency of the particle interactions on all previous distributions. Furthermore, we propose mean-field Langevin anchored best response (MFL-ABR), a symmetric double-loop algorithm based on best response dynamics with linear last-iterate convergence. Finally, we study applications to zero-sum Markov games and conduct simulations demonstrating long-term optimality.

The entropic fictitious play (EFP) is a recently proposed algorithm that minimizes the sum of a convex functional and entropy in the space of measures -- such an objective naturally arises in the optimization of a two-layer neural network in the mean-field regime. In this work, we provide a concise primal-dual analysis of EFP in the setting where the learning problem exhibits a finite-sum structure. We establish quantitative global convergence guarantees for both the continuous-time and discrete-time dynamics based on properties of a proximal Gibbs measure introduced in Nitanda et al. (2022). Furthermore, our primal-dual framework entails a memory-efficient particle-based implementation of the EFP update, and also suggests a connection to gradient boosting methods. We illustrate the efficiency of our novel implementation in experiments including neural network optimization and image synthesis.

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal transport map between two probability distributions, P and Q in mathbb R^d, on the basis of i.i.d. samples. All existing statistical analyses of this problem require the assumption that the transport map is Lipschitz, a strong requirement that, in particular, excludes any examples where the transport map is discontinuous. As a first step towards developing estimation procedures for discontinuous maps, we consider the important special case where the data distribution Q is a discrete measure supported on a finite number of points in mathbb R^d. We study a computationally efficient estimator initially proposed by Pooladian and Niles-Weed (2021), based on entropic optimal transport, and show in the semi-discrete setting that it converges at the minimax-optimal rate n^{-1/2}, independent of dimension. Other standard map estimation techniques both lack finite-sample guarantees in this setting and provably suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We confirm these results in numerical experiments, and provide experiments for other settings, not covered by our theory, which indicate that the entropic estimator is a promising methodology for other discontinuous transport map estimation problems.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the Controlled Monte Carlo Diffusion sampler (CMCD) for Bayesian computation, a score-based annealing technique that crucially adapts both forward and backward dynamics in a diffusion model. On the way, we clarify the relationship between the EM-algorithm and iterative proportional fitting (IPF) for Schr{\"o}dinger bridges, deriving as well a regularised objective that bypasses the iterative bottleneck of standard IPF-updates. Finally, we show that CMCD has a strong foundation in the Jarzinsky and Crooks identities from statistical physics, and that it convincingly outperforms competing approaches across a wide array of experiments.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

Generalized self-concordance is a key property present in the objective function of many important learning problems. We establish the convergence rate of a simple Frank-Wolfe variant that uses the open-loop step size strategy gamma_t = 2/(t+2), obtaining a O(1/t) convergence rate for this class of functions in terms of primal gap and Frank-Wolfe gap, where t is the iteration count. This avoids the use of second-order information or the need to estimate local smoothness parameters of previous work. We also show improved convergence rates for various common cases, e.g., when the feasible region under consideration is uniformly convex or polyhedral.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

Nonconvex optimization is central in solving many machine learning problems, in which block-wise structure is commonly encountered. In this work, we propose cyclic block coordinate methods for nonconvex optimization problems with non-asymptotic gradient norm guarantees. Our convergence analysis is based on a gradient Lipschitz condition with respect to a Mahalanobis norm, inspired by a recent progress on cyclic block coordinate methods. In deterministic settings, our convergence guarantee matches the guarantee of (full-gradient) gradient descent, but with the gradient Lipschitz constant being defined w.r.t.~a Mahalanobis norm. In stochastic settings, we use recursive variance reduction to decrease the per-iteration cost and match the arithmetic operation complexity of current optimal stochastic full-gradient methods, with a unified analysis for both finite-sum and infinite-sum cases. We prove a faster linear convergence result when a Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz (P{\L}) condition holds. To our knowledge, this work is the first to provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees -- variance-reduced or not -- for a cyclic block coordinate method in general composite (smooth + nonsmooth) nonconvex settings. Our experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed cyclic scheme in training deep neural nets.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

We consider a family of algorithms that successively sample and minimize simple stochastic models of the objective function. We show that under reasonable conditions on approximation quality and regularity of the models, any such algorithm drives a natural stationarity measure to zero at the rate O(k^{-1/4}). As a consequence, we obtain the first complexity guarantees for the stochastic proximal point, proximal subgradient, and regularized Gauss-Newton methods for minimizing compositions of convex functions with smooth maps. The guiding principle, underlying the complexity guarantees, is that all algorithms under consideration can be interpreted as approximate descent methods on an implicit smoothing of the problem, given by the Moreau envelope. Specializing to classical circumstances, we obtain the long-sought convergence rate of the stochastic projected gradient method, without batching, for minimizing a smooth function on a closed convex set.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

In the past several years, the last-iterate convergence of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm has triggered people's interest due to its good performance in practice but lack of theoretical understanding. For Lipschitz convex functions, different works have established the optimal O(log(1/delta)log T/T) or O(log(1/delta)/T) high-probability convergence rates for the final iterate, where T is the time horizon and delta is the failure probability. However, to prove these bounds, all the existing works are either limited to compact domains or require almost surely bounded noises. It is natural to ask whether the last iterate of SGD can still guarantee the optimal convergence rate but without these two restrictive assumptions. Besides this important question, there are still lots of theoretical problems lacking an answer. For example, compared with the last-iterate convergence of SGD for non-smooth problems, only few results for smooth optimization have yet been developed. Additionally, the existing results are all limited to a non-composite objective and the standard Euclidean norm. It still remains unclear whether the last-iterate convergence can be provably extended to wider composite optimization and non-Euclidean norms. In this work, to address the issues mentioned above, we revisit the last-iterate convergence of stochastic gradient methods and provide the first unified way to prove the convergence rates both in expectation and in high probability to accommodate general domains, composite objectives, non-Euclidean norms, Lipschitz conditions, smoothness, and (strong) convexity simultaneously. Additionally, we extend our analysis to obtain the last-iterate convergence under heavy-tailed noises.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

We study an online learning problem in general-sum Stackelberg games, where players act in a decentralized and strategic manner. We study two settings depending on the type of information for the follower: (1) the limited information setting where the follower only observes its own reward, and (2) the side information setting where the follower has extra side information about the leader's reward. We show that for the follower, myopically best responding to the leader's action is the best strategy for the limited information setting, but not necessarily so for the side information setting -- the follower can manipulate the leader's reward signals with strategic actions, and hence induce the leader's strategy to converge to an equilibrium that is better off for itself. Based on these insights, we study decentralized online learning for both players in the two settings. Our main contribution is to derive last-iterate convergence and sample complexity results in both settings. Notably, we design a new manipulation strategy for the follower in the latter setting, and show that it has an intrinsic advantage against the best response strategy. Our theories are also supported by empirical results.

While efficient distribution learning is no doubt behind the groundbreaking success of diffusion modeling, its theoretical guarantees are quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous analysis on approximation and generalization abilities of diffusion modeling for well-known function spaces. The highlight of this paper is that when the true density function belongs to the Besov space and the empirical score matching loss is properly minimized, the generated data distribution achieves the nearly minimax optimal estimation rates in the total variation distance and in the Wasserstein distance of order one. Furthermore, we extend our theory to demonstrate how diffusion models adapt to low-dimensional data distributions. We expect these results advance theoretical understandings of diffusion modeling and its ability to generate verisimilar outputs.

Score-based generative modeling with probability flow ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has achieved remarkable success in a variety of applications. While various fast ODE-based samplers have been proposed in the literature and employed in practice, the theoretical understandings about convergence properties of the probability flow ODE are still quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first non-asymptotic convergence analysis for a general class of probability flow ODE samplers in 2-Wasserstein distance, assuming accurate score estimates. We then consider various examples and establish results on the iteration complexity of the corresponding ODE-based samplers.

Recent work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has focused on incorporating partial differential equation (PDE) information into the learning process. Much of this work has focused on relatively ``easy'' PDE operators (e.g., elliptic and parabolic), with less emphasis on relatively ``hard'' PDE operators (e.g., hyperbolic). Within numerical PDEs, the latter problem class requires control of a type of volume element or conservation constraint, which is known to be challenging. Delivering on the promise of SciML requires seamlessly incorporating both types of problems into the learning process. To address this issue, we propose ProbConserv, a framework for incorporating conservation constraints into a generic SciML architecture. To do so, ProbConserv combines the integral form of a conservation law with a Bayesian update. We provide a detailed analysis of ProbConserv on learning with the Generalized Porous Medium Equation (GPME), a widely-applicable parameterized family of PDEs that illustrates the qualitative properties of both easier and harder PDEs. ProbConserv is effective for easy GPME variants, performing well with state-of-the-art competitors; and for harder GPME variants it outperforms other approaches that do not guarantee volume conservation. ProbConserv seamlessly enforces physical conservation constraints, maintains probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), and deals well with shocks and heteroscedasticities. In each case, it achieves superior predictive performance on downstream tasks.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

We rigorously quantify the improvement in the sample complexity of variational divergence estimations for group-invariant distributions. In the cases of the Wasserstein-1 metric and the Lipschitz-regularized alpha-divergences, the reduction of sample complexity is proportional to an ambient-dimension-dependent power of the group size. For the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), the improvement of sample complexity is more nuanced, as it depends on not only the group size but also the choice of kernel. Numerical simulations verify our theories.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

This paper rigorously shows how over-parameterization changes the convergence behaviors of gradient descent (GD) for the matrix sensing problem, where the goal is to recover an unknown low-rank ground-truth matrix from near-isotropic linear measurements. First, we consider the symmetric setting with the symmetric parameterization where M^* in R^{n times n} is a positive semi-definite unknown matrix of rank r ll n, and one uses a symmetric parameterization XX^top to learn M^*. Here X in R^{n times k} with k > r is the factor matrix. We give a novel Omega (1/T^2) lower bound of randomly initialized GD for the over-parameterized case (k >r) where T is the number of iterations. This is in stark contrast to the exact-parameterization scenario (k=r) where the convergence rate is exp (-Omega (T)). Next, we study asymmetric setting where M^* in R^{n_1 times n_2} is the unknown matrix of rank r ll min{n_1,n_2}, and one uses an asymmetric parameterization FG^top to learn M^* where F in R^{n_1 times k} and G in R^{n_2 times k}. Building on prior work, we give a global exact convergence result of randomly initialized GD for the exact-parameterization case (k=r) with an exp (-Omega(T)) rate. Furthermore, we give the first global exact convergence result for the over-parameterization case (k>r) with an exp(-Omega(alpha^2 T)) rate where alpha is the initialization scale. This linear convergence result in the over-parameterization case is especially significant because one can apply the asymmetric parameterization to the symmetric setting to speed up from Omega (1/T^2) to linear convergence. On the other hand, we propose a novel method that only modifies one step of GD and obtains a convergence rate independent of alpha, recovering the rate in the exact-parameterization case.

We consider a deep matrix factorization model of covariance matrices trained with the Bures-Wasserstein distance. While recent works have made important advances in the study of the optimization problem for overparametrized low-rank matrix approximation, much emphasis has been placed on discriminative settings and the square loss. In contrast, our model considers another interesting type of loss and connects with the generative setting. We characterize the critical points and minimizers of the Bures-Wasserstein distance over the space of rank-bounded matrices. For low-rank matrices the Hessian of this loss can theoretically blow up, which creates challenges to analyze convergence of optimizaton methods. We establish convergence results for gradient flow using a smooth perturbative version of the loss and convergence results for finite step size gradient descent under certain assumptions on the initial weights.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

This paper presents an innovative approach to enhancing few-shot learning by integrating data augmentation with model fine-tuning in a framework designed to tackle the challenges posed by small-sample data. Recognizing the critical limitations of traditional machine learning models that require large datasets-especially in fields such as drug discovery, target recognition, and malicious traffic detection-this study proposes a novel strategy that leverages Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and advanced optimization techniques to improve model performance with limited data. Specifically, the paper addresses the noise and bias issues introduced by data augmentation methods, contrasting them with model-based approaches, such as fine-tuning and metric learning, which rely heavily on related datasets. By combining Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and discriminative model ensemble strategies within a GAN framework, the proposed model adjusts generative and discriminative distributions to simulate a broader range of relevant data. Furthermore, it employs MHLoss and a reparameterized GAN ensemble to enhance stability and accelerate convergence, ultimately leading to improved classification performance on small-sample images and structured datasets. Results confirm that the MhERGAN algorithm developed in this research is highly effective for few-shot learning, offering a practical solution that bridges data scarcity with high-performing model adaptability and generalization.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Diffusion models have become the go-to method for large-scale generative models in real-world applications. These applications often involve data distributions confined within bounded domains, typically requiring ad-hoc thresholding techniques for boundary enforcement. Reflected diffusion models (Lou23) aim to enhance generalizability by generating the data distribution through a backward process governed by reflected Brownian motion. However, reflected diffusion models may not easily adapt to diverse domains without the derivation of proper diffeomorphic mappings and do not guarantee optimal transport properties. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Reflected Schrodinger Bridge algorithm: an entropy-regularized optimal transport approach tailored for generating data within diverse bounded domains. We derive elegant reflected forward-backward stochastic differential equations with Neumann and Robin boundary conditions, extend divergence-based likelihood training to bounded domains, and explore natural connections to entropic optimal transport for the study of approximate linear convergence - a valuable insight for practical training. Our algorithm yields robust generative modeling in diverse domains, and its scalability is demonstrated in real-world constrained generative modeling through standard image benchmarks.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

We revisit the theoretical properties of Hamiltonian stochastic differential equations (SDES) for Bayesian posterior sampling, and we study the two types of errors that arise from numerical SDE simulation: the discretization error and the error due to noisy gradient estimates in the context of data subsampling. Our main result is a novel analysis for the effect of mini-batches through the lens of differential operator splitting, revising previous literature results. The stochastic component of a Hamiltonian SDE is decoupled from the gradient noise, for which we make no normality assumptions. This leads to the identification of a convergence bottleneck: when considering mini-batches, the best achievable error rate is O(eta^2), with eta being the integrator step size. Our theoretical results are supported by an empirical study on a variety of regression and classification tasks for Bayesian neural networks.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Recent years have witnessed the rapid progress and broad application of diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs). Sampling from DPMs can be viewed as solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE). Despite the promising performance, the generation of DPMs usually consumes much time due to the large number of function evaluations (NFE). Though recent works have accelerated the sampling to around 20 steps with high-order solvers, the sample quality with less than 10 NFE can still be improved. In this paper, we propose a unified sampling framework (USF) to study the optional strategies for solver. Under this framework, we further reveal that taking different solving strategies at different timesteps may help further decrease the truncation error, and a carefully designed solver schedule has the potential to improve the sample quality by a large margin. Therefore, we propose a new sampling framework based on the exponential integral formulation that allows free choices of solver strategy at each step and design specific decisions for the framework. Moreover, we propose S^3, a predictor-based search method that automatically optimizes the solver schedule to get a better time-quality trade-off of sampling. We demonstrate that S^3 can find outstanding solver schedules which outperform the state-of-the-art sampling methods on CIFAR-10, CelebA, ImageNet, and LSUN-Bedroom datasets. Specifically, we achieve 2.69 FID with 10 NFE and 6.86 FID with 5 NFE on CIFAR-10 dataset, outperforming the SOTA method significantly. We further apply S^3 to Stable-Diffusion model and get an acceleration ratio of 2times, showing the feasibility of sampling in very few steps without retraining the neural network.

Transport maps can ease the sampling of distributions with non-trivial geometries by transforming them into distributions that are easier to handle. The potential of this approach has risen with the development of Normalizing Flows (NF) which are maps parameterized with deep neural networks trained to push a reference distribution towards a target. NF-enhanced samplers recently proposed blend (Markov chain) Monte Carlo methods with either (i) proposal draws from the flow or (ii) a flow-based reparametrization. In both cases, the quality of the learned transport conditions performance. The present work clarifies for the first time the relative strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches. Our study concludes that multimodal targets can be reliably handled with flow-based proposals up to moderately high dimensions. In contrast, methods relying on reparametrization struggle with multimodality but are more robust otherwise in high-dimensional settings and under poor training. To further illustrate the influence of target-proposal adequacy, we also derive a new quantitative bound for the mixing time of the Independent Metropolis-Hastings sampler.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit) is an open source large-scale agent-based transportation planning project applied to various areas like road transport, public transport, freight transport, regional evacuation, etc. BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) framework extends MATSim to enable powerful and scalable analysis of urban transportation systems. The agents from the BEAM simulation exhibit 'mode choice' behavior based on multinomial logit model. In our study, we consider eight mode choices viz. bike, car, walk, ride hail, driving to transit, walking to transit, ride hail to transit, and ride hail pooling. The 'alternative specific constants' for each mode choice are critical hyperparameters in a configuration file related to a particular scenario under experimentation. We use the 'Urbansim-10k' BEAM scenario (with 10,000 population size) for all our experiments. Since these hyperparameters affect the simulation in complex ways, manual calibration methods are time consuming. We present a parallel Bayesian optimization method with early stopping rule to achieve fast convergence for the given multi-in-multi-out problem to its optimal configurations. Our model is based on an open source HpBandSter package. This approach combines hierarchy of several 1D Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) with a cheap evaluator (Hyperband, a single multidimensional KDE). Our model has also incorporated extrapolation based early stopping rule. With our model, we could achieve a 25% L1 norm for a large-scale BEAM simulation in fully autonomous manner. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind applied to large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations. This work can be useful for surrogate modeling of scenarios with very large populations.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Finding the mixed Nash equilibria (MNE) of a two-player zero sum continuous game is an important and challenging problem in machine learning. A canonical algorithm to finding the MNE is the noisy gradient descent ascent method which in the infinite particle limit gives rise to the {\em Mean-Field Gradient Descent Ascent} (GDA) dynamics on the space of probability measures. In this paper, we first study the convergence of a two-scale Mean-Field GDA dynamics for finding the MNE of the entropy-regularized objective. More precisely we show that for each finite temperature (or regularization parameter), the two-scale Mean-Field GDA with a suitable {\em finite} scale ratio converges exponentially to the unique MNE without assuming the convexity or concavity of the interaction potential. The key ingredient of our proof lies in the construction of new Lyapunov functions that dissipate exponentially along the Mean-Field GDA. We further study the simulated annealing of the Mean-Field GDA dynamics. We show that with a temperature schedule that decays logarithmically in time the annealed Mean-Field GDA converges to the MNE of the original unregularized objective.

We revisit the problem of sampling from a target distribution that has a smooth strongly log-concave density everywhere in mathbb R^p. In this context, if no additional density information is available, the randomized midpoint discretization for the kinetic Langevin diffusion is known to be the most scalable method in high dimensions with large condition numbers. Our main result is a nonasymptotic and easy to compute upper bound on the Wasserstein-2 error of this method. To provide a more thorough explanation of our method for establishing the computable upper bound, we conduct an analysis of the midpoint discretization for the vanilla Langevin process. This analysis helps to clarify the underlying principles and provides valuable insights that we use to establish an improved upper bound for the kinetic Langevin process with the midpoint discretization. Furthermore, by applying these techniques we establish new guarantees for the kinetic Langevin process with Euler discretization, which have a better dependence on the condition number than existing upper bounds.

We consider solving equality-constrained nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems. This class of problems appears widely in a variety of applications in machine learning and engineering, ranging from constrained deep neural networks, to optimal control, to PDE-constrained optimization. We develop an adaptive inexact Newton method for this problem class. In each iteration, we solve the Lagrangian Newton system inexactly via a randomized iterative sketching solver, and select a suitable stepsize by performing line search on an exact augmented Lagrangian merit function. The randomized solvers have advantages over deterministic linear system solvers by significantly reducing per-iteration flops complexity and storage cost, when equipped with suitable sketching matrices. Our method adaptively controls the accuracy of the randomized solver and the penalty parameters of the exact augmented Lagrangian, to ensure that the inexact Newton direction is a descent direction of the exact augmented Lagrangian. This allows us to establish a global almost sure convergence. We also show that a unit stepsize is admissible locally, so that our method exhibits a local linear convergence. Furthermore, we prove that the linear convergence can be strengthened to superlinear convergence if we gradually sharpen the adaptive accuracy condition on the randomized solver. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method on benchmark nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set, constrained logistic regression with data from LIBSVM, and a PDE-constrained problem.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing efficient training and fast sampling approaches for diffusion models. A recent remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe data perturbation and generative modeling in a unified mathematical framework. In this paper, we reveal several intriguing geometric structures of diffusion models and contribute a simple yet powerful interpretation to their sampling dynamics. Through carefully inspecting a popular variance-exploding SDE and its marginal-preserving ordinary differential equation (ODE) for sampling, we discover that the data distribution and the noise distribution are smoothly connected with an explicit, quasi-linear sampling trajectory, and another implicit denoising trajectory, which even converges faster in terms of visual quality. We also establish a theoretical relationship between the optimal ODE-based sampling and the classic mean-shift (mode-seeking) algorithm, with which we can characterize the asymptotic behavior of diffusion models and identify the score deviation. These new geometric observations enable us to improve previous sampling algorithms, re-examine latent interpolation, as well as re-explain the working principles of distillation-based fast sampling techniques.

Sampling from diffusion models involves a slow iterative process that hinders their practical deployment, especially for interactive applications. To accelerate generation speed, recent approaches distill a multi-step diffusion model into a single-step student generator via variational score distillation, which matches the distribution of samples generated by the student to the teacher's distribution. However, these approaches use the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for distribution matching which is known to be mode seeking. In this paper, we generalize the distribution matching approach using a novel f-divergence minimization framework, termed f-distill, that covers different divergences with different trade-offs in terms of mode coverage and training variance. We derive the gradient of the f-divergence between the teacher and student distributions and show that it is expressed as the product of their score differences and a weighting function determined by their density ratio. This weighting function naturally emphasizes samples with higher density in the teacher distribution, when using a less mode-seeking divergence. We observe that the popular variational score distillation approach using the reverse-KL divergence is a special case within our framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that alternative f-divergences, such as forward-KL and Jensen-Shannon divergences, outperform the current best variational score distillation methods across image generation tasks. In particular, when using Jensen-Shannon divergence, f-distill achieves current state-of-the-art one-step generation performance on ImageNet64 and zero-shot text-to-image generation on MS-COCO. Project page: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/genair/f-distill

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors. However, SSM is significantly influenced by the choice of the proposal. Recently Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling has shown success in many practical problems. In this paper, we propose an SMC augmented by HMC (HSMC) for inference and model learning of nonlinear SSM, which can exempt us from learning proposals and reduce the model complexity significantly. Based on the measure preserving property of HMC, the particles directly generated by transition function can approximate the posterior of latent states arbitrarily well. In order to better adapt to the local geometry of latent space, the HMC is conducted on Riemannian manifold defined by a positive definite metric. In addition, we show that the proposed HSMC method can improve SSMs realized by both Gaussian Processes (GP) and Neural Network (NN).

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.

It is believed that in knowledge distillation (KD), the role of the teacher is to provide an estimate for the unknown Bayes conditional probability distribution (BCPD) to be used in the student training process. Conventionally, this estimate is obtained by training the teacher using maximum log-likelihood (MLL) method. To improve this estimate for KD, in this paper we introduce the concept of conditional mutual information (CMI) into the estimation of BCPD and propose a novel estimator called the maximum CMI (MCMI) method. Specifically, in MCMI estimation, both the log-likelihood and CMI of the teacher are simultaneously maximized when the teacher is trained. Through Eigen-CAM, it is further shown that maximizing the teacher's CMI value allows the teacher to capture more contextual information in an image cluster. Via conducting a thorough set of experiments, we show that by employing a teacher trained via MCMI estimation rather than one trained via MLL estimation in various state-of-the-art KD frameworks, the student's classification accuracy consistently increases, with the gain of up to 3.32\%. This suggests that the teacher's BCPD estimate provided by MCMI method is more accurate than that provided by MLL method. In addition, we show that such improvements in the student's accuracy are more drastic in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, the student's accuracy increases with the gain of up to 5.72\% when 5\% of the training samples are available to the student (few-shot), and increases from 0\% to as high as 84\% for an omitted class (zero-shot). The code is available at https://github.com/iclr2024mcmi/ICLRMCMI.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) model incorporates the power of multiple submodels via gating functions to achieve greater performance in numerous regression and classification applications. From a theoretical perspective, while there have been previous attempts to comprehend the behavior of that model under the regression settings through the convergence analysis of maximum likelihood estimation in the Gaussian MoE model, such analysis under the setting of a classification problem has remained missing in the literature. We close this gap by establishing the convergence rates of density estimation and parameter estimation in the softmax gating multinomial logistic MoE model. Notably, when part of the expert parameters vanish, these rates are shown to be slower than polynomial rates owing to an inherent interaction between the softmax gating and expert functions via partial differential equations. To address this issue, we propose using a novel class of modified softmax gating functions which transform the input value before delivering them to the gating functions. As a result, the previous interaction disappears and the parameter estimation rates are significantly improved.

We consider stochastic unconstrained bilevel optimization problems when only the first-order gradient oracles are available. While numerous optimization methods have been proposed for tackling bilevel problems, existing methods either tend to require possibly expensive calculations regarding Hessians of lower-level objectives, or lack rigorous finite-time performance guarantees. In this work, we propose a Fully First-order Stochastic Approximation (F2SA) method, and study its non-asymptotic convergence properties. Specifically, we show that F2SA converges to an epsilon-stationary solution of the bilevel problem after epsilon^{-7/2}, epsilon^{-5/2}, and epsilon^{-3/2} iterations (each iteration using O(1) samples) when stochastic noises are in both level objectives, only in the upper-level objective, and not present (deterministic settings), respectively. We further show that if we employ momentum-assisted gradient estimators, the iteration complexities can be improved to epsilon^{-5/2}, epsilon^{-4/2}, and epsilon^{-3/2}, respectively. We demonstrate even superior practical performance of the proposed method over existing second-order based approaches on MNIST data-hypercleaning experiments.

Heavy-ball momentum with decaying learning rates is widely used with SGD for optimizing deep learning models. In contrast to its empirical popularity, the understanding of its theoretical property is still quite limited, especially under the standard anisotropic gradient noise condition for quadratic regression problems. Although it is widely conjectured that heavy-ball momentum method can provide accelerated convergence and should work well in large batch settings, there is no rigorous theoretical analysis. In this paper, we fill this theoretical gap by establishing a non-asymptotic convergence bound for stochastic heavy-ball methods with step decay scheduler on quadratic objectives, under the anisotropic gradient noise condition. As a direct implication, we show that heavy-ball momentum can provide mathcal{O}(kappa) accelerated convergence of the bias term of SGD while still achieving near-optimal convergence rate with respect to the stochastic variance term. The combined effect implies an overall convergence rate within log factors from the statistical minimax rate. This means SGD with heavy-ball momentum is useful in the large-batch settings such as distributed machine learning or federated learning, where a smaller number of iterations can significantly reduce the number of communication rounds, leading to acceleration in practice.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

We present a novel adaptive optimization algorithm for large-scale machine learning problems. Equipped with a low-cost estimate of local curvature and Lipschitz smoothness, our method dynamically adapts the search direction and step-size. The search direction contains gradient information preconditioned by a well-scaled diagonal preconditioning matrix that captures the local curvature information. Our methodology does not require the tedious task of learning rate tuning, as the learning rate is updated automatically without adding an extra hyperparameter. We provide convergence guarantees on a comprehensive collection of optimization problems, including convex, strongly convex, and nonconvex problems, in both deterministic and stochastic regimes. We also conduct an extensive empirical evaluation on standard machine learning problems, justifying our algorithm's versatility and demonstrating its strong performance compared to other start-of-the-art first-order and second-order methods.

Machine learning approaches relying on such criteria as adversarial robustness or multi-agent settings have raised the need for solving game-theoretic equilibrium problems. Of particular relevance to these applications are methods targeting finite-sum structure, which generically arises in empirical variants of learning problems in these contexts. Further, methods with computable approximation errors are highly desirable, as they provide verifiable exit criteria. Motivated by these applications, we study finite-sum monotone inclusion problems, which model broad classes of equilibrium problems. Our main contributions are variants of the classical Halpern iteration that employ variance reduction to obtain improved complexity guarantees in which n component operators in the finite sum are ``on average'' either cocoercive or Lipschitz continuous and monotone, with parameter L. The resulting oracle complexity of our methods, which provide guarantees for the last iterate and for a (computable) operator norm residual, is mathcal{O}( n + nLvarepsilon^{-1}), which improves upon existing methods by a factor up to n. This constitutes the first variance reduction-type result for general finite-sum monotone inclusions and for more specific problems such as convex-concave optimization when operator norm residual is the optimality measure. We further argue that, up to poly-logarithmic factors, this complexity is unimprovable in the monotone Lipschitz setting; i.e., the provided result is near-optimal.

Mirror descent value iteration (MDVI), an abstraction of Kullback-Leibler (KL) and entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (RL), has served as the basis for recent high-performing practical RL algorithms. However, despite the use of function approximation in practice, the theoretical understanding of MDVI has been limited to tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). We study MDVI with linear function approximation through its sample complexity required to identify an varepsilon-optimal policy with probability 1-delta under the settings of an infinite-horizon linear MDP, generative model, and G-optimal design. We demonstrate that least-squares regression weighted by the variance of an estimated optimal value function of the next state is crucial to achieving minimax optimality. Based on this observation, we present Variance-Weighted Least-Squares MDVI (VWLS-MDVI), the first theoretical algorithm that achieves nearly minimax optimal sample complexity for infinite-horizon linear MDPs. Furthermore, we propose a practical VWLS algorithm for value-based deep RL, Deep Variance Weighting (DVW). Our experiments demonstrate that DVW improves the performance of popular value-based deep RL algorithms on a set of MinAtar benchmarks.

The Brownian sphere is a random metric space, homeomorphic to the two-dimensional sphere, which arises as the universal scaling limit of many types of random planar maps. The direct construction of the Brownian sphere is via a continuous analogue of the Cori--Vauquelin--Schaeffer (CVS) bijection. The CVS bijection maps labeled trees to planar maps, and the continuous version maps Aldous' continuum random tree with Brownian labels (the Brownian snake) to the Brownian sphere. In this work, we describe the inverse of the continuous CVS bijection, by constructing the Brownian snake as a measurable function of the Brownian sphere. Special care is needed to work with the orientation of the Brownian sphere.

Most prior results on differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) are derived under the simplistic assumption of uniform Lipschitzness, i.e., the per-sample gradients are uniformly bounded. We generalize uniform Lipschitzness by assuming that the per-sample gradients have sample-dependent upper bounds, i.e., per-sample Lipschitz constants, which themselves may be unbounded. We provide principled guidance on choosing the clip norm in DP-SGD for convex over-parameterized settings satisfying our general version of Lipschitzness when the per-sample Lipschitz constants are bounded; specifically, we recommend tuning the clip norm only till values up to the minimum per-sample Lipschitz constant. This finds application in the private training of a softmax layer on top of a deep network pre-trained on public data. We verify the efficacy of our recommendation via experiments on 8 datasets. Furthermore, we provide new convergence results for DP-SGD on convex and nonconvex functions when the Lipschitz constants are unbounded but have bounded moments, i.e., they are heavy-tailed.

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a widely used technique to simulate molecular systems, most commonly at the all-atom resolution where equations of motion are integrated with timesteps on the order of femtoseconds (1fs=10^{-15}s). MD is often used to compute equilibrium properties, which requires sampling from an equilibrium distribution such as the Boltzmann distribution. However, many important processes, such as binding and folding, occur over timescales of milliseconds or beyond, and cannot be efficiently sampled with conventional MD. Furthermore, new MD simulations need to be performed for each molecular system studied. We present Timewarp, an enhanced sampling method which uses a normalising flow as a proposal distribution in a Markov chain Monte Carlo method targeting the Boltzmann distribution. The flow is trained offline on MD trajectories and learns to make large steps in time, simulating the molecular dynamics of 10^{5} - 10^{6}:fs. Crucially, Timewarp is transferable between molecular systems: once trained, we show that it generalises to unseen small peptides (2-4 amino acids) at all-atom resolution, exploring their metastable states and providing wall-clock acceleration of sampling compared to standard MD. Our method constitutes an important step towards general, transferable algorithms for accelerating MD.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

We study reinforcement learning for global decision-making in the presence of many local agents, where the global decision-maker makes decisions affecting all local agents, and the objective is to learn a policy that maximizes the rewards of both the global and the local agents. Such problems find many applications, e.g. demand response, EV charging, queueing, etc. In this setting, scalability has been a long-standing challenge due to the size of the state/action space which can be exponential in the number of agents. This work proposes the SUB-SAMPLE-Q algorithm where the global agent subsamples kleq n local agents to compute an optimal policy in time that is only exponential in k, providing an exponential speedup from standard methods that are exponential in n. We show that the learned policy converges to the optimal policy in the order of O(1/k+epsilon_{k,m}) as the number of sub-sampled agents k increases, where epsilon_{k,m} is the Bellman noise. We also conduct numerical simulations in a demand-response setting and a queueing setting.

We address the problem of biased gradient estimation in deep Boltzmann machines (DBMs). The existing method to obtain an unbiased estimator uses a maximal coupling based on a Gibbs sampler, but when the state is high-dimensional, it takes a long time to converge. In this study, we propose to use a coupling based on the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) and to initialize the state around a local mode of the target distribution. Because of the propensity of MH to reject proposals, the coupling tends to converge in only one step with a high probability, leading to high efficiency. We find that our method allows DBMs to be trained in an end-to-end fashion without greedy pretraining. We also propose some practical techniques to further improve the performance of DBMs. We empirically demonstrate that our training algorithm enables DBMs to show comparable generative performance to other deep generative models, achieving the FID score of 10.33 for MNIST.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) are emerging powerful generative models. Despite their high-quality generation performance, DPMs still suffer from their slow sampling as they generally need hundreds or thousands of sequential function evaluations (steps) of large neural networks to draw a sample. Sampling from DPMs can be viewed alternatively as solving the corresponding diffusion ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In this work, we propose an exact formulation of the solution of diffusion ODEs. The formulation analytically computes the linear part of the solution, rather than leaving all terms to black-box ODE solvers as adopted in previous works. By applying change-of-variable, the solution can be equivalently simplified to an exponentially weighted integral of the neural network. Based on our formulation, we propose DPM-Solver, a fast dedicated high-order solver for diffusion ODEs with the convergence order guarantee. DPM-Solver is suitable for both discrete-time and continuous-time DPMs without any further training. Experimental results show that DPM-Solver can generate high-quality samples in only 10 to 20 function evaluations on various datasets. We achieve 4.70 FID in 10 function evaluations and 2.87 FID in 20 function evaluations on the CIFAR10 dataset, and a 4sim 16times speedup compared with previous state-of-the-art training-free samplers on various datasets.

Black box optimisation of an unknown function from expensive and noisy evaluations is a ubiquitous problem in machine learning, academic research and industrial production. An abstraction of the problem can be formulated as a kernel based bandit problem (also known as Bayesian optimisation), where a learner aims at optimising a kernelized function through sequential noisy observations. The existing work predominantly assumes feedback is immediately available; an assumption which fails in many real world situations, including recommendation systems, clinical trials and hyperparameter tuning. We consider a kernel bandit problem under stochastically delayed feedback, and propose an algorithm with mathcal{O}(Gamma_k(T)T+E[tau]) regret, where T is the number of time steps, Gamma_k(T) is the maximum information gain of the kernel with T observations, and tau is the delay random variable. This represents a significant improvement over the state of the art regret bound of mathcal{O}(Gamma_k(T)T+E[tau]Gamma_k(T)) reported in Verma et al. (2022). In particular, for very non-smooth kernels, the information gain grows almost linearly in time, trivializing the existing results. We also validate our theoretical results with simulations.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

Diffusion models suffer from slow sample generation at inference time. Therefore, developing a principled framework for fast deterministic/stochastic sampling for a broader class of diffusion models is a promising direction. We propose two complementary frameworks for accelerating sample generation in pre-trained models: Conjugate Integrators and Splitting Integrators. Conjugate integrators generalize DDIM, mapping the reverse diffusion dynamics to a more amenable space for sampling. In contrast, splitting-based integrators, commonly used in molecular dynamics, reduce the numerical simulation error by cleverly alternating between numerical updates involving the data and auxiliary variables. After extensively studying these methods empirically and theoretically, we present a hybrid method that leads to the best-reported performance for diffusion models in augmented spaces. Applied to Phase Space Langevin Diffusion [Pandey & Mandt, 2023] on CIFAR-10, our deterministic and stochastic samplers achieve FID scores of 2.11 and 2.36 in only 100 network function evaluations (NFE) as compared to 2.57 and 2.63 for the best-performing baselines, respectively. Our code and model checkpoints will be made publicly available at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

This review paper is intended for the 2nd edition of the Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. We provide an introduction to approximate inference techniques as Bayesian computation methods applied to deep learning models. We organize the chapter by presenting popular computational methods for Bayesian neural networks and deep generative models, explaining their unique challenges in posterior inference as well as the solutions.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Despite the remarkable success of diffusion models in image generation, slow sampling remains a persistent issue. To accelerate the sampling process, prior studies have reformulated diffusion sampling as an ODE/SDE and introduced higher-order numerical methods. However, these methods often produce divergence artifacts, especially with a low number of sampling steps, which limits the achievable acceleration. In this paper, we investigate the potential causes of these artifacts and suggest that the small stability regions of these methods could be the principal cause. To address this issue, we propose two novel techniques. The first technique involves the incorporation of Heavy Ball (HB) momentum, a well-known technique for improving optimization, into existing diffusion numerical methods to expand their stability regions. We also prove that the resulting methods have first-order convergence. The second technique, called Generalized Heavy Ball (GHVB), constructs a new high-order method that offers a variable trade-off between accuracy and artifact suppression. Experimental results show that our techniques are highly effective in reducing artifacts and improving image quality, surpassing state-of-the-art diffusion solvers on both pixel-based and latent-based diffusion models for low-step sampling. Our research provides novel insights into the design of numerical methods for future diffusion work.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

This is a handbook of simple proofs of the convergence of gradient and stochastic gradient descent type methods. We consider functions that are Lipschitz, smooth, convex, strongly convex, and/or Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz functions. Our focus is on ``good proofs'' that are also simple. Each section can be consulted separately. We start with proofs of gradient descent, then on stochastic variants, including minibatching and momentum. Then move on to nonsmooth problems with the subgradient method, the proximal gradient descent and their stochastic variants. Our focus is on global convergence rates and complexity rates. Some slightly less common proofs found here include that of SGD (Stochastic gradient descent) with a proximal step, with momentum, and with mini-batching without replacement.

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved state-of-the-art synthesis results on diverse tasks. However, the current design space of the forward diffusion process is largely unexplored and often relies on physical intuition or simplifying assumptions. Leveraging results from the design of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for constructing forward processes in SGMs, all of which are guaranteed to converge to the target distribution of interest. We show that several existing SGMs can be cast as specific instantiations of this parameterization. Furthermore, building on this recipe, we construct a novel SGM: Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which performs score-based modeling in a space augmented with auxiliary variables akin to a physical phase space. We show that PSLD outperforms competing baselines in terms of sample quality and the speed-vs-quality tradeoff across different samplers on various standard image synthesis benchmarks. Moreover, we show that PSLD achieves sample quality comparable to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 on unconditional CIFAR-10 generation), providing an attractive alternative as an SGM backbone for further development. We will publish our code and model checkpoints for reproducibility at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

Gradient methods have become mainstream techniques for Bi-Level Optimization (BLO) in learning fields. The validity of existing works heavily rely on either a restrictive Lower- Level Strong Convexity (LLSC) condition or on solving a series of approximation subproblems with high accuracy or both. In this work, by averaging the upper and lower level objectives, we propose a single loop Bi-level Averaged Method of Multipliers (sl-BAMM) for BLO that is simple yet efficient for large-scale BLO and gets rid of the limited LLSC restriction. We further provide non-asymptotic convergence analysis of sl-BAMM towards KKT stationary points, and the comparative advantage of our analysis lies in the absence of strong gradient boundedness assumption, which is always required by others. Thus our theory safely captures a wider variety of applications in deep learning, especially where the upper-level objective is quadratic w.r.t. the lower-level variable. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Fast adversarial training (FAT) is beneficial for improving the adversarial robustness of neural networks. However, previous FAT work has encountered a significant issue known as catastrophic overfitting when dealing with large perturbation budgets, \ie the adversarial robustness of models declines to near zero during training. To address this, we analyze the training process of prior FAT work and observe that catastrophic overfitting is accompanied by the appearance of loss convergence outliers. Therefore, we argue a moderately smooth loss convergence process will be a stable FAT process that solves catastrophic overfitting. To obtain a smooth loss convergence process, we propose a novel oscillatory constraint (dubbed ConvergeSmooth) to limit the loss difference between adjacent epochs. The convergence stride of ConvergeSmooth is introduced to balance convergence and smoothing. Likewise, we design weight centralization without introducing additional hyperparameters other than the loss balance coefficient. Our proposed methods are attack-agnostic and thus can improve the training stability of various FAT techniques. Extensive experiments on popular datasets show that the proposed methods efficiently avoid catastrophic overfitting and outperform all previous FAT methods. Code is available at https://github.com/FAT-CS/ConvergeSmooth.

We introduce the framework of performative reinforcement learning where the policy chosen by the learner affects the underlying reward and transition dynamics of the environment. Following the recent literature on performative prediction~Perdomo et. al., 2020, we introduce the concept of performatively stable policy. We then consider a regularized version of the reinforcement learning problem and show that repeatedly optimizing this objective converges to a performatively stable policy under reasonable assumptions on the transition dynamics. Our proof utilizes the dual perspective of the reinforcement learning problem and may be of independent interest in analyzing the convergence of other algorithms with decision-dependent environments. We then extend our results for the setting where the learner just performs gradient ascent steps instead of fully optimizing the objective, and for the setting where the learner has access to a finite number of trajectories from the changed environment. For both settings, we leverage the dual formulation of performative reinforcement learning and establish convergence to a stable solution. Finally, through extensive experiments on a grid-world environment, we demonstrate the dependence of convergence on various parameters e.g. regularization, smoothness, and the number of samples.

In an effort to better understand the different ways in which the discount factor affects the optimization process in reinforcement learning, we designed a set of experiments to study each effect in isolation. Our analysis reveals that the common perception that poor performance of low discount factors is caused by (too) small action-gaps requires revision. We propose an alternative hypothesis that identifies the size-difference of the action-gap across the state-space as the primary cause. We then introduce a new method that enables more homogeneous action-gaps by mapping value estimates to a logarithmic space. We prove convergence for this method under standard assumptions and demonstrate empirically that it indeed enables lower discount factors for approximate reinforcement-learning methods. This in turn allows tackling a class of reinforcement-learning problems that are challenging to solve with traditional methods.

In this paper we tackle the problem of generating conformers of a molecule in 3D space given its molecular graph. We parameterize these conformers as continuous functions that map elements from the molecular graph to points in 3D space. We then formulate the problem of learning to generate conformers as learning a distribution over these functions using a diffusion generative model, called Molecular Conformer Fields (MCF). Our approach is simple and scalable, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging molecular conformer generation benchmarks while making no assumptions about the explicit structure of molecules (e.g. modeling torsional angles). MCF represents an advance in extending diffusion models to handle complex scientific problems in a conceptually simple, scalable and effective manner.

This work presents a fast and scalable algorithm for incremental learning of Gaussian mixture models. By performing rank-one updates on its precision matrices and determinants, its asymptotic time complexity is of NKD^2 for N data points, K Gaussian components and D dimensions. The resulting algorithm can be applied to high dimensional tasks, and this is confirmed by applying it to the classification datasets MNIST and CIFAR-10. Additionally, in order to show the algorithm's applicability to function approximation and control tasks, it is applied to three reinforcement learning tasks and its data-efficiency is evaluated.

In this paper, we consider the problem of Iterative Machine Teaching (IMT), where the teacher provides examples to the learner iteratively such that the learner can achieve fast convergence to a target model. However, existing IMT algorithms are solely based on parameterized families of target models. They mainly focus on convergence in the parameter space, resulting in difficulty when the target models are defined to be functions without dependency on parameters. To address such a limitation, we study a more general task -- Nonparametric Iterative Machine Teaching (NIMT), which aims to teach nonparametric target models to learners in an iterative fashion. Unlike parametric IMT that merely operates in the parameter space, we cast NIMT as a functional optimization problem in the function space. To solve it, we propose both random and greedy functional teaching algorithms. We obtain the iterative teaching dimension (ITD) of the random teaching algorithm under proper assumptions, which serves as a uniform upper bound of ITD in NIMT. Further, the greedy teaching algorithm has a significantly lower ITD, which reaches a tighter upper bound of ITD in NIMT. Finally, we verify the correctness of our theoretical findings with extensive experiments in nonparametric scenarios.

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) address the challenge of model uncertainty by optimizing the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set of MDPs. In this paper, we focus on the robust average-reward MDPs under the model-free setting. We first theoretically characterize the structure of solutions to the robust average-reward Bellman equation, which is essential for our later convergence analysis. We then design two model-free algorithms, robust relative value iteration (RVI) TD and robust RVI Q-learning, and theoretically prove their convergence to the optimal solution. We provide several widely used uncertainty sets as examples, including those defined by the contamination model, total variation, Chi-squared divergence, Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Wasserstein distance.

In this paper, we study the problem of principal component analysis with generative modeling assumptions, adopting a general model for the observed matrix that encompasses notable special cases, including spiked matrix recovery and phase retrieval. The key assumption is that the underlying signal lies near the range of an L-Lipschitz continuous generative model with bounded k-dimensional inputs. We propose a quadratic estimator, and show that it enjoys a statistical rate of order frac{klog L{m}}, where m is the number of samples. We also provide a near-matching algorithm-independent lower bound. Moreover, we provide a variant of the classic power method, which projects the calculated data onto the range of the generative model during each iteration. We show that under suitable conditions, this method converges exponentially fast to a point achieving the above-mentioned statistical rate. We perform experiments on various image datasets for spiked matrix and phase retrieval models, and illustrate performance gains of our method to the classic power method and the truncated power method devised for sparse principal component analysis.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) (Ho et al. 2020) have shown impressive results on image and waveform generation in continuous state spaces. Here, we introduce Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (D3PMs), diffusion-like generative models for discrete data that generalize the multinomial diffusion model of Hoogeboom et al. 2021, by going beyond corruption processes with uniform transition probabilities. This includes corruption with transition matrices that mimic Gaussian kernels in continuous space, matrices based on nearest neighbors in embedding space, and matrices that introduce absorbing states. The third allows us to draw a connection between diffusion models and autoregressive and mask-based generative models. We show that the choice of transition matrix is an important design decision that leads to improved results in image and text domains. We also introduce a new loss function that combines the variational lower bound with an auxiliary cross entropy loss. For text, this model class achieves strong results on character-level text generation while scaling to large vocabularies on LM1B. On the image dataset CIFAR-10, our models approach the sample quality and exceed the log-likelihood of the continuous-space DDPM model.

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have exhibited excellent performance for high-fidelity image generation while suffering from inefficient sampling. Recent works accelerate the sampling procedure by proposing fast ODE solvers that leverage the specific ODE form of DPMs. However, they highly rely on specific parameterization during inference (such as noise/data prediction), which might not be the optimal choice. In this work, we propose a novel formulation towards the optimal parameterization during sampling that minimizes the first-order discretization error of the ODE solution. Based on such formulation, we propose DPM-Solver-v3, a new fast ODE solver for DPMs by introducing several coefficients efficiently computed on the pretrained model, which we call empirical model statistics. We further incorporate multistep methods and a predictor-corrector framework, and propose some techniques for improving sample quality at small numbers of function evaluations (NFE) or large guidance scales. Experiments show that DPM-Solver-v3 achieves consistently better or comparable performance in both unconditional and conditional sampling with both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs, especially in 5sim10 NFEs. We achieve FIDs of 12.21 (5 NFE), 2.51 (10 NFE) on unconditional CIFAR10, and MSE of 0.55 (5 NFE, 7.5 guidance scale) on Stable Diffusion, bringing a speed-up of 15\%sim30\% compared to previous state-of-the-art training-free methods. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPM-Solver-v3.

Consistency Models (CM) (Song et al., 2023) accelerate score-based diffusion model sampling at the cost of sample quality but lack a natural way to trade-off quality for speed. To address this limitation, we propose Consistency Trajectory Model (CTM), a generalization encompassing CM and score-based models as special cases. CTM trains a single neural network that can -- in a single forward pass -- output scores (i.e., gradients of log-density) and enables unrestricted traversal between any initial and final time along the Probability Flow Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) in a diffusion process. CTM enables the efficient combination of adversarial training and denoising score matching loss to enhance performance and achieves new state-of-the-art FIDs for single-step diffusion model sampling on CIFAR-10 (FID 1.73) and ImageNet at 64x64 resolution (FID 1.92). CTM also enables a new family of sampling schemes, both deterministic and stochastic, involving long jumps along the ODE solution trajectories. It consistently improves sample quality as computational budgets increase, avoiding the degradation seen in CM. Furthermore, unlike CM, CTM's access to the score function can streamline the adoption of established controllable/conditional generation methods from the diffusion community. This access also enables the computation of likelihood. The code is available at https://github.com/sony/ctm.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

We study a distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit where a client supplies the learner with communication-constrained feedback based on the rewards for the corresponding arm pulls. In our setup, the client must encode the rewards such that the second moment of the encoded rewards is no more than P, and this encoded reward is further corrupted by additive Gaussian noise of variance sigma^2; the learner only has access to this corrupted reward. For this setting, we derive an information-theoretic lower bound of Omegaleft(frac{KT{SNR wedge1}} right) on the minimax regret of any scheme, where SNR := P{sigma^2}, and K and T are the number of arms and time horizon, respectively. Furthermore, we propose a multi-phase bandit algorithm, UEtext{-UCB++}, which matches this lower bound to a minor additive factor. UEtext{-UCB++} performs uniform exploration in its initial phases and then utilizes the {\em upper confidence bound }(UCB) bandit algorithm in its final phase. An interesting feature of UEtext{-UCB++} is that the coarser estimates of the mean rewards formed during a uniform exploration phase help to refine the encoding protocol in the next phase, leading to more accurate mean estimates of the rewards in the subsequent phase. This positive reinforcement cycle is critical to reducing the number of uniform exploration rounds and closely matching our lower bound.

Recent studies on inverse problems have proposed posterior samplers that leverage the pre-trained diffusion models as powerful priors. These attempts have paved the way for using diffusion models in a wide range of inverse problems. However, the existing methods entail computationally demanding iterative sampling procedures and optimize a separate solution for each measurement, which leads to limited scalability and lack of generalization capability across unseen samples. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, Diffusion prior-based Amortized Variational Inference (DAVI) that solves inverse problems with a diffusion prior from an amortized variational inference perspective. Specifically, instead of separate measurement-wise optimization, our amortized inference learns a function that directly maps measurements to the implicit posterior distributions of corresponding clean data, enabling a single-step posterior sampling even for unseen measurements. Extensive experiments on image restoration tasks, e.g., Gaussian deblur, 4times super-resolution, and box inpainting with two benchmark datasets, demonstrate our approach's superior performance over strong baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/DAVI.

Motivated by the paradigm of reservoir computing, we consider randomly initialized controlled ResNets defined as Euler-discretizations of neural controlled differential equations (Neural CDEs), a unified architecture which enconpasses both RNNs and ResNets. We show that in the infinite-width-depth limit and under proper scaling, these architectures converge weakly to Gaussian processes indexed on some spaces of continuous paths and with kernels satisfying certain partial differential equations (PDEs) varying according to the choice of activation function, extending the results of Hayou (2022); Hayou & Yang (2023) to the controlled and homogeneous case. In the special, homogeneous, case where the activation is the identity, we show that the equation reduces to a linear PDE and the limiting kernel agrees with the signature kernel of Salvi et al. (2021a). We name this new family of limiting kernels neural signature kernels. Finally, we show that in the infinite-depth regime, finite-width controlled ResNets converge in distribution to Neural CDEs with random vector fields which, depending on whether the weights are shared across layers, are either time-independent and Gaussian or behave like a matrix-valued Brownian motion.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

In this paper we provide a novel analytical perspective on the theoretical understanding of gradient-based learning algorithms by interpreting consensus-based optimization (CBO), a recently proposed multi-particle derivative-free optimization method, as a stochastic relaxation of gradient descent. Remarkably, we observe that through communication of the particles, CBO exhibits a stochastic gradient descent (SGD)-like behavior despite solely relying on evaluations of the objective function. The fundamental value of such link between CBO and SGD lies in the fact that CBO is provably globally convergent to global minimizers for ample classes of nonsmooth and nonconvex objective functions, hence, on the one side, offering a novel explanation for the success of stochastic relaxations of gradient descent. On the other side, contrary to the conventional wisdom for which zero-order methods ought to be inefficient or not to possess generalization abilities, our results unveil an intrinsic gradient descent nature of such heuristics. This viewpoint furthermore complements previous insights into the working principles of CBO, which describe the dynamics in the mean-field limit through a nonlinear nonlocal partial differential equation that allows to alleviate complexities of the nonconvex function landscape. Our proofs leverage a completely nonsmooth analysis, which combines a novel quantitative version of the Laplace principle (log-sum-exp trick) and the minimizing movement scheme (proximal iteration). In doing so, we furnish useful and precise insights that explain how stochastic perturbations of gradient descent overcome energy barriers and reach deep levels of nonconvex functions. Instructive numerical illustrations support the provided theoretical insights.

Gradient clipping is a popular modification to standard (stochastic) gradient descent, at every iteration limiting the gradient norm to a certain value c >0. It is widely used for example for stabilizing the training of deep learning models (Goodfellow et al., 2016), or for enforcing differential privacy (Abadi et al., 2016). Despite popularity and simplicity of the clipping mechanism, its convergence guarantees often require specific values of c and strong noise assumptions. In this paper, we give convergence guarantees that show precise dependence on arbitrary clipping thresholds c and show that our guarantees are tight with both deterministic and stochastic gradients. In particular, we show that (i) for deterministic gradient descent, the clipping threshold only affects the higher-order terms of convergence, (ii) in the stochastic setting convergence to the true optimum cannot be guaranteed under the standard noise assumption, even under arbitrary small step-sizes. We give matching upper and lower bounds for convergence of the gradient norm when running clipped SGD, and illustrate these results with experiments.

In this paper, we consider non-convex multi-block bilevel optimization (MBBO) problems, which involve mgg 1 lower level problems and have important applications in machine learning. Designing a stochastic gradient and controlling its variance is more intricate due to the hierarchical sampling of blocks and data and the unique challenge of estimating hyper-gradient. We aim to achieve three nice properties for our algorithm: (a) matching the state-of-the-art complexity of standard BO problems with a single block; (b) achieving parallel speedup by sampling I blocks and sampling B samples for each sampled block per-iteration; (c) avoiding the computation of the inverse of a high-dimensional Hessian matrix estimator. However, it is non-trivial to achieve all of these by observing that existing works only achieve one or two of these properties. To address the involved challenges for achieving (a, b, c), we propose two stochastic algorithms by using advanced blockwise variance-reduction techniques for tracking the Hessian matrices (for low-dimensional problems) or the Hessian-vector products (for high-dimensional problems), and prove an iteration complexity of O(mepsilon^{-3I(I<m)}{II} + mepsilon^{-3}{IB}) for finding an epsilon-stationary point under appropriate conditions. We also conduct experiments to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms comparing with existing MBBO algorithms.

Variational inequalities have recently attracted considerable interest in machine learning as a flexible paradigm for models that go beyond ordinary loss function minimization (such as generative adversarial networks and related deep learning systems). In this setting, the optimal O(1/t) convergence rate for solving smooth monotone variational inequalities is achieved by the Extra-Gradient (EG) algorithm and its variants. Aiming to alleviate the cost of an extra gradient step per iteration (which can become quite substantial in deep learning applications), several algorithms have been proposed as surrogates to Extra-Gradient with a single oracle call per iteration. In this paper, we develop a synthetic view of such algorithms, and we complement the existing literature by showing that they retain a O(1/t) ergodic convergence rate in smooth, deterministic problems. Subsequently, beyond the monotone deterministic case, we also show that the last iterate of single-call, stochastic extra-gradient methods still enjoys a O(1/t) local convergence rate to solutions of non-monotone variational inequalities that satisfy a second-order sufficient condition.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

This paper studies the fundamental limits of reinforcement learning (RL) in the challenging partially observable setting. While it is well-established that learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) requires exponentially many samples in the worst case, a surge of recent work shows that polynomial sample complexities are achievable under the revealing condition -- A natural condition that requires the observables to reveal some information about the unobserved latent states. However, the fundamental limits for learning in revealing POMDPs are much less understood, with existing lower bounds being rather preliminary and having substantial gaps from the current best upper bounds. We establish strong PAC and regret lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs. Our lower bounds scale polynomially in all relevant problem parameters in a multiplicative fashion, and achieve significantly smaller gaps against the current best upper bounds, providing a solid starting point for future studies. In particular, for multi-step revealing POMDPs, we show that (1) the latent state-space dependence is at least Omega(S^{1.5}) in the PAC sample complexity, which is notably harder than the Theta(S) scaling for fully-observable MDPs; (2) Any polynomial sublinear regret is at least Omega(T^{2/3}), suggesting its fundamental difference from the single-step case where O(T) regret is achievable. Technically, our hard instance construction adapts techniques in distribution testing, which is new to the RL literature and may be of independent interest.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

In a convergence of machine learning and biology, we reveal that diffusion models are evolutionary algorithms. By considering evolution as a denoising process and reversed evolution as diffusion, we mathematically demonstrate that diffusion models inherently perform evolutionary algorithms, naturally encompassing selection, mutation, and reproductive isolation. Building on this equivalence, we propose the Diffusion Evolution method: an evolutionary algorithm utilizing iterative denoising -- as originally introduced in the context of diffusion models -- to heuristically refine solutions in parameter spaces. Unlike traditional approaches, Diffusion Evolution efficiently identifies multiple optimal solutions and outperforms prominent mainstream evolutionary algorithms. Furthermore, leveraging advanced concepts from diffusion models, namely latent space diffusion and accelerated sampling, we introduce Latent Space Diffusion Evolution, which finds solutions for evolutionary tasks in high-dimensional complex parameter space while significantly reducing computational steps. This parallel between diffusion and evolution not only bridges two different fields but also opens new avenues for mutual enhancement, raising questions about open-ended evolution and potentially utilizing non-Gaussian or discrete diffusion models in the context of Diffusion Evolution.

Recently, the impressive empirical success of policy gradient (PG) methods has catalyzed the development of their theoretical foundations. Despite the huge efforts directed at the design of efficient stochastic PG-type algorithms, the understanding of their convergence to a globally optimal policy is still limited. In this work, we develop improved global convergence guarantees for a general class of Fisher-non-degenerate parameterized policies which allows to address the case of continuous state action spaces. First, we propose a Normalized Policy Gradient method with Implicit Gradient Transport (N-PG-IGT) and derive a mathcal{O}(varepsilon^{-2.5}) sample complexity of this method for finding a global varepsilon-optimal policy. Improving over the previously known mathcal{O}(varepsilon^{-3}) complexity, this algorithm does not require the use of importance sampling or second-order information and samples only one trajectory per iteration. Second, we further improve this complexity to mathcal{mathcal{O} }(varepsilon^{-2}) by considering a Hessian-Aided Recursive Policy Gradient ((N)-HARPG) algorithm enhanced with a correction based on a Hessian-vector product. Interestingly, both algorithms are (i) simple and easy to implement: single-loop, do not require large batches of trajectories and sample at most two trajectories per iteration; (ii) computationally and memory efficient: they do not require expensive subroutines at each iteration and can be implemented with memory linear in the dimension of parameters.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Diffusion-based image restoration (IR) methods aim to use diffusion models to recover high-quality (HQ) images from degraded images and achieve promising performance. Due to the inherent property of diffusion models, most of these methods need long serial sampling chains to restore HQ images step-by-step. As a result, it leads to expensive sampling time and high computation costs. Moreover, such long sampling chains hinder understanding the relationship between the restoration results and the inputs since it is hard to compute the gradients in the whole chains. In this work, we aim to rethink the diffusion-based IR models through a different perspective, i.e., a deep equilibrium (DEQ) fixed point system. Specifically, we derive an analytical solution by modeling the entire sampling chain in diffusion-based IR models as a joint multivariate fixed point system. With the help of the analytical solution, we are able to conduct single-image sampling in a parallel way and restore HQ images without training. Furthermore, we compute fast gradients in DEQ and found that initialization optimization can boost performance and control the generation direction. Extensive experiments on benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method on typical IR tasks and real-world settings. The code and models will be made publicly available.