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Mar 11

TLOB: A Novel Transformer Model with Dual Attention for Stock Price Trend Prediction with Limit Order Book Data

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

Large Batch Optimization for Deep Learning: Training BERT in 76 minutes

Training large deep neural networks on massive datasets is computationally very challenging. There has been recent surge in interest in using large batch stochastic optimization methods to tackle this issue. The most prominent algorithm in this line of research is LARS, which by employing layerwise adaptive learning rates trains ResNet on ImageNet in a few minutes. However, LARS performs poorly for attention models like BERT, indicating that its performance gains are not consistent across tasks. In this paper, we first study a principled layerwise adaptation strategy to accelerate training of deep neural networks using large mini-batches. Using this strategy, we develop a new layerwise adaptive large batch optimization technique called LAMB; we then provide convergence analysis of LAMB as well as LARS, showing convergence to a stationary point in general nonconvex settings. Our empirical results demonstrate the superior performance of LAMB across various tasks such as BERT and ResNet-50 training with very little hyperparameter tuning. In particular, for BERT training, our optimizer enables use of very large batch sizes of 32868 without any degradation of performance. By increasing the batch size to the memory limit of a TPUv3 Pod, BERT training time can be reduced from 3 days to just 76 minutes (Table 1). The LAMB implementation is available at https://github.com/tensorflow/addons/blob/master/tensorflow_addons/optimizers/lamb.py

bert2BERT: Towards Reusable Pretrained Language Models

In recent years, researchers tend to pre-train ever-larger language models to explore the upper limit of deep models. However, large language model pre-training costs intensive computational resources and most of the models are trained from scratch without reusing the existing pre-trained models, which is wasteful. In this paper, we propose bert2BERT, which can effectively transfer the knowledge of an existing smaller pre-trained model (e.g., BERT_BASE) to a large model (e.g., BERT_LARGE) through parameter initialization and significantly improve the pre-training efficiency of the large model. Specifically, we extend the previous function-preserving on Transformer-based language model, and further improve it by proposing advanced knowledge for large model's initialization. In addition, a two-stage pre-training method is proposed to further accelerate the training process. We did extensive experiments on representative PLMs (e.g., BERT and GPT) and demonstrate that (1) our method can save a significant amount of training cost compared with baselines including learning from scratch, StackBERT and MSLT; (2) our method is generic and applicable to different types of pre-trained models. In particular, bert2BERT saves about 45% and 47% computational cost of pre-training BERT_BASE and GPT_BASE by reusing the models of almost their half sizes. The source code will be publicly available upon publication.

It's All in The [MASK]: Simple Instruction-Tuning Enables BERT-like Masked Language Models As Generative Classifiers

While encoder-only models such as BERT and ModernBERT are ubiquitous in real-world NLP applications, their conventional reliance on task-specific classification heads can limit their applicability compared to decoder-based large language models (LLMs). In this work, we introduce ModernBERT-Large-Instruct, a 0.4B-parameter encoder model that leverages its masked language modelling (MLM) head for generative classification. Our approach employs an intentionally simple training loop and inference mechanism that requires no heavy pre-processing, heavily engineered prompting, or architectural modifications. ModernBERT-Large-Instruct exhibits strong zero-shot performance on both classification and knowledge-based tasks, outperforming similarly sized LLMs on MMLU and achieving 93% of Llama3-1B's MMLU performance with 60% less parameters. We also demonstrate that, when fine-tuned, the generative approach using the MLM head matches or even surpasses traditional classification-head methods across diverse NLU tasks.This capability emerges specifically in models trained on contemporary, diverse data mixes, with models trained on lower volume, less-diverse data yielding considerably weaker performance. Although preliminary, these results demonstrate the potential of using the original generative masked language modelling head over traditional task-specific heads for downstream tasks. Our work suggests that further exploration into this area is warranted, highlighting many avenues for future improvements.

TRADES: Generating Realistic Market Simulations with Diffusion Models

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

AstroLoc: Robust Space to Ground Image Localizer

Astronauts take thousands of photos of Earth per day from the International Space Station, which, once localized on Earth's surface, are used for a multitude of tasks, ranging from climate change research to disaster management. The localization process, which has been performed manually for decades, has recently been approached through image retrieval solutions: given an astronaut photo, find its most similar match among a large database of geo-tagged satellite images, in a task called Astronaut Photography Localization (APL). Yet, existing APL approaches are trained only using satellite images, without taking advantage of the millions open-source astronaut photos. In this work we present the first APL pipeline capable of leveraging astronaut photos for training. We first produce full localization information for 300,000 manually weakly labeled astronaut photos through an automated pipeline, and then use these images to train a model, called AstroLoc. AstroLoc learns a robust representation of Earth's surface features through two losses: astronaut photos paired with their matching satellite counterparts in a pairwise loss, and a second loss on clusters of satellite imagery weighted by their relevance to astronaut photography via unsupervised mining. We find that AstroLoc achieves a staggering 35% average improvement in recall@1 over previous SOTA, pushing the limits of existing datasets with a recall@100 consistently over 99%. Finally, we note that AstroLoc, without any fine-tuning, provides excellent results for related tasks like the lost-in-space satellite problem and historical space imagery localization.

Quality-Aware Image-Text Alignment for Opinion-Unaware Image Quality Assessment

No-Reference Image Quality Assessment (NR-IQA) focuses on designing methods to measure image quality in alignment with human perception when a high-quality reference image is unavailable. Most state-of-the-art NR-IQA approaches are opinion-aware, i.e. they require human annotations for training. This dependency limits their scalability and broad applicability. To overcome this limitation, we propose QualiCLIP (Quality-aware CLIP), a CLIP-based self-supervised opinion-unaware approach that does not require human opinions. In particular, we introduce a quality-aware image-text alignment strategy to make CLIP generate quality-aware image representations. Starting from pristine images, we synthetically degrade them with increasing levels of intensity. Then, we train CLIP to rank these degraded images based on their similarity to quality-related antonym text prompts. At the same time, we force CLIP to generate consistent representations for images with similar content and the same level of degradation. Our experiments show that the proposed method improves over existing opinion-unaware approaches across multiple datasets with diverse distortion types. Moreover, despite not requiring human annotations, QualiCLIP achieves excellent performance against supervised opinion-aware methods in cross-dataset experiments, thus demonstrating remarkable generalization capabilities. The code and the model are publicly available at https://github.com/miccunifi/QualiCLIP.

AUPIMO: Redefining Visual Anomaly Detection Benchmarks with High Speed and Low Tolerance

Recent advances in visual anomaly detection research have seen AUROC and AUPRO scores on public benchmark datasets such as MVTec and VisA converge towards perfect recall, giving the impression that these benchmarks are near-solved. However, high AUROC and AUPRO scores do not always reflect qualitative performance, which limits the validity of these metrics in real-world applications. We argue that the artificial ceiling imposed by the lack of an adequate evaluation metric restrains progression of the field, and it is crucial that we revisit the evaluation metrics used to rate our algorithms. In response, we introduce Per-IMage Overlap (PIMO), a novel metric that addresses the shortcomings of AUROC and AUPRO. PIMO retains the recall-based nature of the existing metrics but introduces two distinctions: the assignment of curves (and respective area under the curve) is per-image, and its X-axis relies solely on normal images. Measuring recall per image simplifies instance score indexing and is more robust to noisy annotations. As we show, it also accelerates computation and enables the usage of statistical tests to compare models. By imposing low tolerance for false positives on normal images, PIMO provides an enhanced model validation procedure and highlights performance variations across datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that PIMO offers practical advantages and nuanced performance insights that redefine anomaly detection benchmarks -- notably challenging the perception that MVTec AD and VisA datasets have been solved by contemporary models. Available on GitHub: https://github.com/jpcbertoldo/aupimo.

Feature Learning in Infinite-Width Neural Networks

As its width tends to infinity, a deep neural network's behavior under gradient descent can become simplified and predictable (e.g. given by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK)), if it is parametrized appropriately (e.g. the NTK parametrization). However, we show that the standard and NTK parametrizations of a neural network do not admit infinite-width limits that can learn features, which is crucial for pretraining and transfer learning such as with BERT. We propose simple modifications to the standard parametrization to allow for feature learning in the limit. Using the *Tensor Programs* technique, we derive explicit formulas for such limits. On Word2Vec and few-shot learning on Omniglot via MAML, two canonical tasks that rely crucially on feature learning, we compute these limits exactly. We find that they outperform both NTK baselines and finite-width networks, with the latter approaching the infinite-width feature learning performance as width increases. More generally, we classify a natural space of neural network parametrizations that generalizes standard, NTK, and Mean Field parametrizations. We show 1) any parametrization in this space either admits feature learning or has an infinite-width training dynamics given by kernel gradient descent, but not both; 2) any such infinite-width limit can be computed using the Tensor Programs technique. Code for our experiments can be found at github.com/edwardjhu/TP4.