Daily Papers

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Data science tasks involving tabular data present complex challenges that require sophisticated problem-solving approaches. We propose AutoKaggle, a powerful and user-centric framework that assists data scientists in completing daily data pipelines through a collaborative multi-agent system. AutoKaggle implements an iterative development process that combines code execution, debugging, and comprehensive unit testing to ensure code correctness and logic consistency. The framework offers highly customizable workflows, allowing users to intervene at each phase, thus integrating automated intelligence with human expertise. Our universal data science toolkit, comprising validated functions for data cleaning, feature engineering, and modeling, forms the foundation of this solution, enhancing productivity by streamlining common tasks. We selected 8 Kaggle competitions to simulate data processing workflows in real-world application scenarios. Evaluation results demonstrate that AutoKaggle achieves a validation submission rate of 0.85 and a comprehensive score of 0.82 in typical data science pipelines, fully proving its effectiveness and practicality in handling complex data science tasks.

We introduce Agent K v1.0, an end-to-end autonomous data science agent designed to automate, optimise, and generalise across diverse data science tasks. Fully automated, Agent K v1.0 manages the entire data science life cycle by learning from experience. It leverages a highly flexible structured reasoning framework to enable it to dynamically process memory in a nested structure, effectively learning from accumulated experience stored to handle complex reasoning tasks. It optimises long- and short-term memory by selectively storing and retrieving key information, guiding future decisions based on environmental rewards. This iterative approach allows it to refine decisions without fine-tuning or backpropagation, achieving continuous improvement through experiential learning. We evaluate our agent's apabilities using Kaggle competitions as a case study. Following a fully automated protocol, Agent K v1.0 systematically addresses complex and multimodal data science tasks, employing Bayesian optimisation for hyperparameter tuning and feature engineering. Our new evaluation framework rigorously assesses Agent K v1.0's end-to-end capabilities to generate and send submissions starting from a Kaggle competition URL. Results demonstrate that Agent K v1.0 achieves a 92.5\% success rate across tasks, spanning tabular, computer vision, NLP, and multimodal domains. When benchmarking against 5,856 human Kaggle competitors by calculating Elo-MMR scores for each, Agent K v1.0 ranks in the top 38\%, demonstrating an overall skill level comparable to Expert-level users. Notably, its Elo-MMR score falls between the first and third quartiles of scores achieved by human Grandmasters. Furthermore, our results indicate that Agent K v1.0 has reached a performance level equivalent to Kaggle Grandmaster, with a record of 6 gold, 3 silver, and 7 bronze medals, as defined by Kaggle's progression system.

We introduce AutoGluon-Tabular, an open-source AutoML framework that requires only a single line of Python to train highly accurate machine learning models on an unprocessed tabular dataset such as a CSV file. Unlike existing AutoML frameworks that primarily focus on model/hyperparameter selection, AutoGluon-Tabular succeeds by ensembling multiple models and stacking them in multiple layers. Experiments reveal that our multi-layer combination of many models offers better use of allocated training time than seeking out the best. A second contribution is an extensive evaluation of public and commercial AutoML platforms including TPOT, H2O, AutoWEKA, auto-sklearn, AutoGluon, and Google AutoML Tables. Tests on a suite of 50 classification and regression tasks from Kaggle and the OpenML AutoML Benchmark reveal that AutoGluon is faster, more robust, and much more accurate. We find that AutoGluon often even outperforms the best-in-hindsight combination of all of its competitors. In two popular Kaggle competitions, AutoGluon beat 99% of the participating data scientists after merely 4h of training on the raw data.

The research described in this paper concerns automatic cyberbullying detection in social media. There are two goals to achieve: building a gold standard cyberbullying detection dataset and measuring the performance of the Samurai cyberbullying detection system. The Formspring dataset provided in a Kaggle competition was re-annotated as a part of the research. The annotation procedure is described in detail and, unlike many other recent data annotation initiatives, does not use Mechanical Turk for finding people willing to perform the annotation. The new annotation compared to the old one seems to be more coherent since all tested cyberbullying detection system performed better on the former. The performance of the Samurai system is compared with 5 commercial systems and one well-known machine learning algorithm, used for classifying textual content, namely Fasttext. It turns out that Samurai scores the best in all measures (accuracy, precision and recall), while Fasttext is the second-best performing algorithm.

The goal of automated feature generation is to liberate machine learning experts from the laborious task of manual feature generation, which is crucial for improving the learning performance of tabular data. The major challenge in automated feature generation is to efficiently and accurately identify effective features from a vast pool of candidate features. In this paper, we present OpenFE, an automated feature generation tool that provides competitive results against machine learning experts. OpenFE achieves high efficiency and accuracy with two components: 1) a novel feature boosting method for accurately evaluating the incremental performance of candidate features and 2) a two-stage pruning algorithm that performs feature pruning in a coarse-to-fine manner. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets show that OpenFE outperforms existing baseline methods by a large margin. We further evaluate OpenFE in two Kaggle competitions with thousands of data science teams participating. In the two competitions, features generated by OpenFE with a simple baseline model can beat 99.3% and 99.6% data science teams respectively. In addition to the empirical results, we provide a theoretical perspective to show that feature generation can be beneficial in a simple yet representative setting. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhangTP1996/OpenFE.

In this research, we study the change in the performance of machine learning (ML) classifiers when various linguistic preprocessing methods of a dataset were used, with the specific focus on linguistically-backed embeddings in Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). Moreover, we study the concept of Feature Density and confirm its potential to comparatively predict the performance of ML classifiers, including CNN. The research was conducted on a Formspring dataset provided in a Kaggle competition on automatic cyberbullying detection. The dataset was re-annotated by objective experts (psychologists), as the importance of professional annotation in cyberbullying research has been indicated multiple times. The study confirmed the effectiveness of Neural Networks in cyberbullying detection and the correlation between classifier performance and Feature Density while also proposing a new approach of training various linguistically-backed embeddings for Convolutional Neural Networks.

This paper presents a strong set of results for resolving gendered ambiguous pronouns on the Gendered Ambiguous Pronouns shared task. The model presented here draws upon the strengths of state-of-the-art language and coreference resolution models, and introduces a novel evidence-based deep learning architecture. Injecting evidence from the coreference models compliments the base architecture, and analysis shows that the model is not hindered by their weaknesses, specifically gender bias. The modularity and simplicity of the architecture make it very easy to extend for further improvement and applicable to other NLP problems. Evaluation on GAP test data results in a state-of-the-art performance at 92.5% F1 (gender bias of 0.97), edging closer to the human performance of 96.6%. The end-to-end solution presented here placed 1st in the Kaggle competition, winning by a significant lead. The code is available at https://github.com/sattree/gap.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated impressive language/vision reasoning abilities, igniting the recent trend of building agents for targeted applications such as shopping assistants or AI software engineers. Recently, many data science benchmarks have been proposed to investigate their performance in the data science domain. However, existing data science benchmarks still fall short when compared to real-world data science applications due to their simplified settings. To bridge this gap, we introduce DSBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate data science agents with realistic tasks. This benchmark includes 466 data analysis tasks and 74 data modeling tasks, sourced from Eloquence and Kaggle competitions. DSBench offers a realistic setting by encompassing long contexts, multimodal task backgrounds, reasoning with large data files and multi-table structures, and performing end-to-end data modeling tasks. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LLMs, LVLMs, and agents shows that they struggle with most tasks, with the best agent solving only 34.12% of data analysis tasks and achieving a 34.74% Relative Performance Gap (RPG). These findings underscore the need for further advancements in developing more practical, intelligent, and autonomous data science agents.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

In this report, we present ML-Dev-Bench, a benchmark aimed at testing agentic capabilities on applied Machine Learning development tasks. While existing benchmarks focus on isolated coding tasks or Kaggle-style competitions, ML-Dev-Bench tests agents' ability to handle the full complexity of ML development workflows. The benchmark assesses performance across critical aspects including dataset handling, model training, improving existing models, debugging, and API integration with popular ML tools. We evaluate three agents - ReAct, Openhands, and AIDE - on a diverse set of 30 tasks, providing insights into their strengths and limitations in handling practical ML development challenges. We open source the benchmark for the benefit of the community at https://github.com/ml-dev-bench/ml-dev-bench{https://github.com/ml-dev-bench/ml-dev-bench}.

We introduce MLE-bench, a benchmark for measuring how well AI agents perform at machine learning engineering. To this end, we curate 75 ML engineering-related competitions from Kaggle, creating a diverse set of challenging tasks that test real-world ML engineering skills such as training models, preparing datasets, and running experiments. We establish human baselines for each competition using Kaggle's publicly available leaderboards. We use open-source agent scaffolds to evaluate several frontier language models on our benchmark, finding that the best-performing setup--OpenAI's o1-preview with AIDE scaffolding--achieves at least the level of a Kaggle bronze medal in 16.9% of competitions. In addition to our main results, we investigate various forms of resource scaling for AI agents and the impact of contamination from pre-training. We open-source our benchmark code (github.com/openai/mle-bench/) to facilitate future research in understanding the ML engineering capabilities of AI agents.

As Transformer-based architectures have recently shown encouraging progresses in computer vision. In this work, we present the solution to the Google Landmark Recognition 2021 Challenge held on Kaggle, which is an improvement on our last year's solution by changing three designs, including (1) Using Swin and CSWin as backbone for feature extraction, (2) Train on full GLDv2, and (3) Using full GLDv2 images as index image set for kNN search. With these modifications, our solution significantly improves last year solution on this year competition. Our full pipeline, after ensembling Swin, CSWin, EfficientNet B7 models, scores 0.4907 on the private leaderboard which help us to get the 2nd place in the competition.

The Global Wheat Head Detection (GWHD) dataset was created in 2020 and has assembled 193,634 labelled wheat heads from 4,700 RGB images acquired from various acquisition platforms and 7 countries/institutions. With an associated competition hosted in Kaggle, GWHD has successfully attracted attention from both the computer vision and agricultural science communities. From this first experience in 2020, a few avenues for improvements have been identified, especially from the perspective of data size, head diversity and label reliability. To address these issues, the 2020 dataset has been reexamined, relabeled, and augmented by adding 1,722 images from 5 additional countries, allowing for 81,553 additional wheat heads to be added. We now release a new version of the Global Wheat Head Detection (GWHD) dataset in 2021, which is bigger, more diverse, and less noisy than the 2020 version. The GWHD 2021 is now publicly available at http://www.global-wheat.com/ and a new data challenge has been organized on AIcrowd to make use of this updated dataset.

We consider the use of automated supervised learning systems for data tables that not only contain numeric/categorical columns, but one or more text fields as well. Here we assemble 18 multimodal data tables that each contain some text fields and stem from a real business application. Our publicly-available benchmark enables researchers to comprehensively evaluate their own methods for supervised learning with numeric, categorical, and text features. To ensure that any single modeling strategy which performs well over all 18 datasets will serve as a practical foundation for multimodal text/tabular AutoML, the diverse datasets in our benchmark vary greatly in: sample size, problem types (a mix of classification and regression tasks), number of features (with the number of text columns ranging from 1 to 28 between datasets), as well as how the predictive signal is decomposed between text vs. numeric/categorical features (and predictive interactions thereof). Over this benchmark, we evaluate various straightforward pipelines to model such data, including standard two-stage approaches where NLP is used to featurize the text such that AutoML for tabular data can then be applied. Compared with human data science teams, the fully automated methodology that performed best on our benchmark (stack ensembling a multimodal Transformer with various tree models) also manages to rank 1st place when fit to the raw text/tabular data in two MachineHack prediction competitions and 2nd place (out of 2380 teams) in Kaggle's Mercari Price Suggestion Challenge.

The paper proposes a novel machine learning-based approach to the pathfinding problem on extremely large graphs. This method leverages diffusion distance estimation via a neural network and uses beam search for pathfinding. We demonstrate its efficiency by finding solutions for 4x4x4 and 5x5x5 Rubik's cubes with unprecedentedly short solution lengths, outperforming all available solvers and introducing the first machine learning solver beyond the 3x3x3 case. In particular, it surpasses every single case of the combined best results in the Kaggle Santa 2023 challenge, which involved over 1,000 teams. For the 3x3x3 Rubik's cube, our approach achieves an optimality rate exceeding 98%, matching the performance of task-specific solvers and significantly outperforming prior solutions such as DeepCubeA (60.3%) and EfficientCube (69.6%). Additionally, our solution is more than 26 times faster in solving 3x3x3 Rubik's cubes while requiring up to 18.5 times less model training time than the most efficient state-of-the-art competitor.

A modified LAB algorithm is introduced in this paper. It builds upon the original LAB algorithm (Reddy et al. 2023), which is a socio-inspired algorithm that models competitive and learning behaviours within a group, establishing hierarchical roles. The proposed algorithm incorporates the roulette wheel approach and a reduction factor introducing inter-group competition and iteratively narrowing down the sample space. The algorithm is validated by solving the benchmark test problems from CEC 2005 and CEC 2017. The solutions are validated using standard statistical tests such as two-sided and pairwise signed rank Wilcoxon test and Friedman rank test. The algorithm exhibited improved and superior robustness as well as search space exploration capabilities. Furthermore, a Clustering-Based Search Space Reduction (C-SSR) method is proposed, making the algorithm capable to solve constrained problems. The C-SSR method enables the algorithm to identify clusters of feasible regions, satisfying the constraints and contributing to achieve the optimal solution. This method demonstrates its effectiveness as a potential alternative to traditional constraint handling techniques. The results obtained using the Modified LAB algorithm are then compared with those achieved by other recent metaheuristic algorithms.

This paper presents the first ChatGPT4PCG Competition at the 2023 IEEE Conference on Games. The objective of this competition is for participants to create effective prompts for ChatGPT--enabling it to generate Science Birds levels with high stability and character-like qualities--fully using their creativity as well as prompt engineering skills. ChatGPT is a conversational agent developed by OpenAI. Science Birds is selected as the competition platform because designing an Angry Birds-like level is not a trivial task due to the in-game gravity; the quality of the levels is determined by their stability. To lower the entry barrier to the competition, we limit the task to the generation of capitalized English alphabetical characters. We also allow only a single prompt to be used for generating all the characters. Here, the quality of the generated levels is determined by their stability and similarity to the given characters. A sample prompt is provided to participants for their reference. An experiment is conducted to determine the effectiveness of several modified versions of this sample prompt on level stability and similarity by testing them on several characters. To the best of our knowledge, we believe that ChatGPT4PCG is the first competition of its kind and hope to inspire enthusiasm for prompt engineering in procedural content generation.

We consider the task of identifying the Copeland winner(s) in a dueling bandits problem with ternary feedback. This is an underexplored but practically relevant variant of the conventional dueling bandits problem, in which, in addition to strict preference between two arms, one may observe feedback in the form of an indifference. We provide a lower bound on the sample complexity for any learning algorithm finding the Copeland winner(s) with a fixed error probability. Moreover, we propose POCOWISTA, an algorithm with a sample complexity that almost matches this lower bound, and which shows excellent empirical performance, even for the conventional dueling bandits problem. For the case where the preference probabilities satisfy a specific type of stochastic transitivity, we provide a refined version with an improved worst case sample complexity.

The rapid advancement of visual generative models necessitates efficient and reliable evaluation methods. Arena platform, which gathers user votes on model comparisons, can rank models with human preferences. However, traditional Arena methods, while established, require an excessive number of comparisons for ranking to converge and are vulnerable to preference noise in voting, suggesting the need for better approaches tailored to contemporary evaluation challenges. In this paper, we introduce K-Sort Arena, an efficient and reliable platform based on a key insight: images and videos possess higher perceptual intuitiveness than texts, enabling rapid evaluation of multiple samples simultaneously. Consequently, K-Sort Arena employs K-wise comparisons, allowing K models to engage in free-for-all competitions, which yield much richer information than pairwise comparisons. To enhance the robustness of the system, we leverage probabilistic modeling and Bayesian updating techniques. We propose an exploration-exploitation-based matchmaking strategy to facilitate more informative comparisons. In our experiments, K-Sort Arena exhibits 16.3x faster convergence compared to the widely used ELO algorithm. To further validate the superiority and obtain a comprehensive leaderboard, we collect human feedback via crowdsourced evaluations of numerous cutting-edge text-to-image and text-to-video models. Thanks to its high efficiency, K-Sort Arena can continuously incorporate emerging models and update the leaderboard with minimal votes. Our project has undergone several months of internal testing and is now available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/ksort/K-Sort-Arena

This paper presents the second ChatGPT4PCG competition at the 2024 IEEE Conference on Games. In this edition of the competition, we follow the first edition, but make several improvements and changes. We introduce a new evaluation metric along with allowing a more flexible format for participants' submissions and making several improvements to the evaluation pipeline. Continuing from the first edition, we aim to foster and explore the realm of prompt engineering (PE) for procedural content generation (PCG). While the first competition saw success, it was hindered by various limitations; we aim to mitigate these limitations in this edition. We introduce diversity as a new metric to discourage submissions aimed at producing repetitive structures. Furthermore, we allow submission of a Python program instead of a prompt text file for greater flexibility in implementing advanced PE approaches, which may require control flow, including conditions and iterations. We also make several improvements to the evaluation pipeline with a better classifier for similarity evaluation and better-performing function signatures. We thoroughly evaluate the effectiveness of the new metric and the improved classifier. Additionally, we perform an ablation study to select a function signature to instruct ChatGPT for level generation. Finally, we provide implementation examples of various PE techniques in Python and evaluate their preliminary performance. We hope this competition serves as a resource and platform for learning about PE and PCG in general.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.