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SubscribeCoin Sampling: Gradient-Based Bayesian Inference without Learning Rates
In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.
Coin3D: Controllable and Interactive 3D Assets Generation with Proxy-Guided Conditioning
As humans, we aspire to create media content that is both freely willed and readily controlled. Thanks to the prominent development of generative techniques, we now can easily utilize 2D diffusion methods to synthesize images controlled by raw sketch or designated human poses, and even progressively edit/regenerate local regions with masked inpainting. However, similar workflows in 3D modeling tasks are still unavailable due to the lack of controllability and efficiency in 3D generation. In this paper, we present a novel controllable and interactive 3D assets modeling framework, named Coin3D. Coin3D allows users to control the 3D generation using a coarse geometry proxy assembled from basic shapes, and introduces an interactive generation workflow to support seamless local part editing while delivering responsive 3D object previewing within a few seconds. To this end, we develop several techniques, including the 3D adapter that applies volumetric coarse shape control to the diffusion model, proxy-bounded editing strategy for precise part editing, progressive volume cache to support responsive preview, and volume-SDS to ensure consistent mesh reconstruction. Extensive experiments of interactive generation and editing on diverse shape proxies demonstrate that our method achieves superior controllability and flexibility in the 3D assets generation task.
CoinMath: Harnessing the Power of Coding Instruction for Math LLMs
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in solving mathematical problems, with code-based solutions proving particularly effective. However, the best practice to leverage coding instruction data to enhance mathematical reasoning remains underexplored. This study investigates three key questions: (1) How do different coding styles of mathematical code-based rationales impact LLMs' learning performance? (2) Can general-domain coding instructions improve performance? (3) How does integrating textual rationales with code-based ones during training enhance mathematical reasoning abilities? Our findings reveal that code-based rationales with concise comments, descriptive naming, and hardcoded solutions are beneficial, while improvements from general-domain coding instructions and textual rationales are relatively minor. Based on these insights, we propose CoinMath, a learning strategy designed to enhance mathematical reasoning by diversifying the coding styles of code-based rationales. CoinMath generates a variety of code-based rationales incorporating concise comments, descriptive naming conventions, and hardcoded solutions. Experimental results demonstrate that CoinMath significantly outperforms its baseline model, MAmmoTH, one of the SOTA math LLMs.
Coincidence, Categorization, and Consolidation: Learning to Recognize Sounds with Minimal Supervision
Humans do not acquire perceptual abilities in the way we train machines. While machine learning algorithms typically operate on large collections of randomly-chosen, explicitly-labeled examples, human acquisition relies more heavily on multimodal unsupervised learning (as infants) and active learning (as children). With this motivation, we present a learning framework for sound representation and recognition that combines (i) a self-supervised objective based on a general notion of unimodal and cross-modal coincidence, (ii) a clustering objective that reflects our need to impose categorical structure on our experiences, and (iii) a cluster-based active learning procedure that solicits targeted weak supervision to consolidate categories into relevant semantic classes. By training a combined sound embedding/clustering/classification network according to these criteria, we achieve a new state-of-the-art unsupervised audio representation and demonstrate up to a 20-fold reduction in the number of labels required to reach a desired classification performance.
Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips
Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started. Our data provide compelling statistical support for the DHM physics model of coin tossing.
Flipping Coins to Estimate Pseudocounts for Exploration in Reinforcement Learning
We propose a new method for count-based exploration in high-dimensional state spaces. Unlike previous work which relies on density models, we show that counts can be derived by averaging samples from the Rademacher distribution (or coin flips). This insight is used to set up a simple supervised learning objective which, when optimized, yields a state's visitation count. We show that our method is significantly more effective at deducing ground-truth visitation counts than previous work; when used as an exploration bonus for a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm, it outperforms existing approaches on most of 9 challenging exploration tasks, including the Atari game Montezuma's Revenge.
As Good As A Coin Toss: Human detection of AI-generated images, videos, audio, and audiovisual stimuli
As synthetic media becomes progressively more realistic and barriers to using it continue to lower, the technology has been increasingly utilized for malicious purposes, from financial fraud to nonconsensual pornography. Today, the principal defense against being misled by synthetic media relies on the ability of the human observer to visually and auditorily discern between real and fake. However, it remains unclear just how vulnerable people actually are to deceptive synthetic media in the course of their day to day lives. We conducted a perceptual study with 1276 participants to assess how accurate people were at distinguishing synthetic images, audio only, video only, and audiovisual stimuli from authentic. To reflect the circumstances under which people would likely encounter synthetic media in the wild, testing conditions and stimuli emulated a typical online platform, while all synthetic media used in the survey was sourced from publicly accessible generative AI technology. We find that overall, participants struggled to meaningfully discern between synthetic and authentic content. We also find that detection performance worsens when the stimuli contains synthetic content as compared to authentic content, images featuring human faces as compared to non face objects, a single modality as compared to multimodal stimuli, mixed authenticity as compared to being fully synthetic for audiovisual stimuli, and features foreign languages as compared to languages the observer is fluent in. Finally, we also find that prior knowledge of synthetic media does not meaningfully impact their detection performance. Collectively, these results indicate that people are highly susceptible to being tricked by synthetic media in their daily lives and that human perceptual detection capabilities can no longer be relied upon as an effective counterdefense.
Designing Efficient Pair-Trading Strategies Using Cointegration for the Indian Stock Market
A pair-trading strategy is an approach that utilizes the fluctuations between prices of a pair of stocks in a short-term time frame, while in the long-term the pair may exhibit a strong association and co-movement pattern. When the prices of the stocks exhibit significant divergence, the shares of the stock that gains in price are sold (a short strategy) while the shares of the other stock whose price falls are bought (a long strategy). This paper presents a cointegration-based approach that identifies stocks listed in the five sectors of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India for designing efficient pair-trading portfolios. Based on the stock prices from Jan 1, 2018, to Dec 31, 2020, the cointegrated stocks are identified and the pairs are formed. The pair-trading portfolios are evaluated on their annual returns for the year 2021. The results show that the pairs of stocks from the auto and the realty sectors, in general, yielded the highest returns among the five sectors studied in the work. However, two among the five pairs from the information technology (IT) sector are found to have yielded negative returns.
Relevant or Random: Can LLMs Truly Perform Analogical Reasoning?
Analogical reasoning is a unique ability of humans to address unfamiliar challenges by transferring strategies from relevant past experiences. One key finding in psychology is that compared with irrelevant past experiences, recalling relevant ones can help humans better handle new tasks. Coincidentally, the NLP community has also recently found that self-generating relevant examples in the context can help large language models (LLMs) better solve a given problem than hand-crafted prompts. However, it is yet not clear whether relevance is the key factor eliciting such capability, i.e., can LLMs benefit more from self-generated relevant examples than irrelevant ones? In this work, we systematically explore whether LLMs can truly perform analogical reasoning on a diverse set of reasoning tasks. With extensive experiments and analysis, we show that self-generated random examples can surprisingly achieve comparable or even better performance, e.g., 4% performance boost on GSM8K with random biological examples. We find that the accuracy of self-generated examples is the key factor and subsequently design two improved methods with significantly reduced inference costs. Overall, we aim to advance a deeper understanding of LLM analogical reasoning and hope this work stimulates further research in the design of self-generated contexts.
Beyond Training Objectives: Interpreting Reward Model Divergence in Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned by reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) are becoming more widely deployed. We coin the term Implicit Reward Model (IRM) to refer to the changes that occur to an LLM during RLHF that result in high-reward generations. We interpret IRMs, and measure their divergence from the RLHF reward model used in the fine-tuning process that induced them. By fitting a linear function to an LLM's IRM, a reward model with the same type signature as the RLHF reward model is constructed, allowing for direct comparison. Additionally, we validate our construction of the IRM through cross-comparison with classifications of features generated by an LLM based on their relevance to the RLHF reward model. Better comprehending IRMs can help minimize discrepencies between LLM behavior and training objectives, which we believe to be an essential component of the safety and alignment of LLMs.
The Shaped Transformer: Attention Models in the Infinite Depth-and-Width Limit
In deep learning theory, the covariance matrix of the representations serves as a proxy to examine the network's trainability. Motivated by the success of Transformers, we study the covariance matrix of a modified Softmax-based attention model with skip connections in the proportional limit of infinite-depth-and-width. We show that at initialization the limiting distribution can be described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) indexed by the depth-to-width ratio. To achieve a well-defined stochastic limit, the Transformer's attention mechanism is modified by centering the Softmax output at identity, and scaling the Softmax logits by a width-dependent temperature parameter. We examine the stability of the network through the corresponding SDE, showing how the scale of both the drift and diffusion can be elegantly controlled with the aid of residual connections. The existence of a stable SDE implies that the covariance structure is well-behaved, even for very large depth and width, thus preventing the notorious issues of rank degeneracy in deep attention models. Finally, we show, through simulations, that the SDE provides a surprisingly good description of the corresponding finite-size model. We coin the name shaped Transformer for these architectural modifications.
Composing Global Optimizers to Reasoning Tasks via Algebraic Objects in Neural Nets
We prove rich algebraic structures of the solution space for 2-layer neural networks with quadratic activation and L_2 loss, trained on reasoning tasks in Abelian group (e.g., modular addition). Such a rich structure enables analytical construction of global optimal solutions from partial solutions that only satisfy part of the loss, despite its high nonlinearity. We coin the framework as CoGO (Composing Global Optimizers). Specifically, we show that the weight space over different numbers of hidden nodes of the 2-layer network is equipped with a semi-ring algebraic structure, and the loss function to be optimized consists of monomial potentials, which are ring homomorphism, allowing partial solutions to be composed into global ones by ring addition and multiplication. Our experiments show that around 95% of the solutions obtained by gradient descent match exactly our theoretical constructions. Although the global optimizers constructed only required a small number of hidden nodes, our analysis on gradient dynamics shows that over-parameterization asymptotically decouples training dynamics and is beneficial. We further show that training dynamics favors simpler solutions under weight decay, and thus high-order global optimizers such as perfect memorization are unfavorable.
ArchGym: An Open-Source Gymnasium for Machine Learning Assisted Architecture Design
Machine learning is a prevalent approach to tame the complexity of design space exploration for domain-specific architectures. Using ML for design space exploration poses challenges. First, it's not straightforward to identify the suitable algorithm from an increasing pool of ML methods. Second, assessing the trade-offs between performance and sample efficiency across these methods is inconclusive. Finally, lack of a holistic framework for fair, reproducible, and objective comparison across these methods hinders progress of adopting ML-aided architecture design space exploration and impedes creating repeatable artifacts. To mitigate these challenges, we introduce ArchGym, an open-source gym and easy-to-extend framework that connects diverse search algorithms to architecture simulators. To demonstrate utility, we evaluate ArchGym across multiple vanilla and domain-specific search algorithms in designing custom memory controller, deep neural network accelerators, and custom SoC for AR/VR workloads, encompassing over 21K experiments. Results suggest that with unlimited samples, ML algorithms are equally favorable to meet user-defined target specification if hyperparameters are tuned; no solution is necessarily better than another (e.g., reinforcement learning vs. Bayesian methods). We coin the term hyperparameter lottery to describe the chance for a search algorithm to find an optimal design provided meticulously selected hyperparameters. The ease of data collection and aggregation in ArchGym facilitates research in ML-aided architecture design space exploration. As a case study, we show this advantage by developing a proxy cost model with an RMSE of 0.61% that offers a 2,000-fold reduction in simulation time. Code and data for ArchGym is available at https://bit.ly/ArchGym.
Knowledge Overshadowing Causes Amalgamated Hallucination in Large Language Models
Hallucination is often regarded as a major impediment for using large language models (LLMs), especially for knowledge-intensive tasks. Even when the training corpus consists solely of true statements, language models still generate hallucinations in the form of amalgamations of multiple facts. We coin this phenomenon as ``knowledge overshadowing'': when we query knowledge from a language model with multiple conditions, some conditions overshadow others, leading to hallucinated outputs. This phenomenon partially stems from training data imbalance, which we verify on both pretrained models and fine-tuned models, over a wide range of LM model families and sizes.From a theoretical point of view, knowledge overshadowing can be interpreted as over-generalization of the dominant conditions (patterns). We show that the hallucination rate grows with both the imbalance ratio (between the popular and unpopular condition) and the length of dominant condition description, consistent with our derived generalization bound. Finally, we propose to utilize overshadowing conditions as a signal to catch hallucination before it is produced, along with a training-free self-contrastive decoding method to alleviate hallucination during inference. Our proposed approach showcases up to 82% F1 for hallucination anticipation and 11.2% to 39.4% hallucination control, with different models and datasets.
Cross-Entropy Loss Functions: Theoretical Analysis and Applications
Cross-entropy is a widely used loss function in applications. It coincides with the logistic loss applied to the outputs of a neural network, when the softmax is used. But, what guarantees can we rely on when using cross-entropy as a surrogate loss? We present a theoretical analysis of a broad family of loss functions, comp-sum losses, that includes cross-entropy (or logistic loss), generalized cross-entropy, the mean absolute error and other cross-entropy-like loss functions. We give the first H-consistency bounds for these loss functions. These are non-asymptotic guarantees that upper bound the zero-one loss estimation error in terms of the estimation error of a surrogate loss, for the specific hypothesis set H used. We further show that our bounds are tight. These bounds depend on quantities called minimizability gaps. To make them more explicit, we give a specific analysis of these gaps for comp-sum losses. We also introduce a new family of loss functions, smooth adversarial comp-sum losses, that are derived from their comp-sum counterparts by adding in a related smooth term. We show that these loss functions are beneficial in the adversarial setting by proving that they admit H-consistency bounds. This leads to new adversarial robustness algorithms that consist of minimizing a regularized smooth adversarial comp-sum loss. While our main purpose is a theoretical analysis, we also present an extensive empirical analysis comparing comp-sum losses. We further report the results of a series of experiments demonstrating that our adversarial robustness algorithms outperform the current state-of-the-art, while also achieving a superior non-adversarial accuracy.
Sharp Noisy Binary Search with Monotonic Probabilities
We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.