First date indicator - Forget yield curve, here are some unorthodox indicators of recession | The Economic Times
Forget yield curve, here are some unorthodox indicators of recession
TNN & Agencies|
In addition to unemployment, manufacturing and public sentiment, some unorthodox indicators can also prove useful as recession predictors.
R-word index
Created by The Economist, it measures how frequently the word “recession” appears in the news. The index accurately predicted recessions in 1990, 2001 and 2007. In the past month, Google searches for “recession” and “slowdown” have been trending up in India.
Declining sales of men’s underwear can indicate the economy is struggling, according to a measure created by former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.
Garbage indicator
In a slowing economy, people tend to spend less and therefore throw out fewer things. The indicator had an 82% accuracy rate from 2001 to 2012 for the US economy.
First date indicator
Online dating service Match.com identified a pattern — during a slowdown, more people used the dating service than in other periods. Match.com saw its busiest period in 7 years in Q4 of 2008, just as the US economy bottomed out.
Diaper indicator
To cut costs in a weakening economy, parents might change their babies’ diapers fewer times a day, which may lead to more rashes and thus increased sales in rash cream.