The Good: The increase in the canola futures was relatively minor today, but when you look at other oilseed markets today it was a clear winner! January canola futures closed the day at C$977.40 per tonne, which was up C$3.50 per tonne higher than the close on Friday. The higher close in canola contrasts significantly with the loss of 17 cents per bushel in the January soybean contract. Soybean oil was also lower today with the nearby December contract off 1.24 per cent. In light of these moves, the gain in canola is very significant.
The Bad: Spring wheat futures closed down for the fourth consecutive session, but the decline was less than one cent per bushel. December spring wheat futures closed the session at US$10.09 per bushel. The USDA report is unlikely to provide very much in the way of bullish or bearish information for the spring wheat market, so today’s trading action isn’t unexpected. The U.S. wheat situation is unlikely to change dramatically with the report, but the market is expecting a drop in global wheat ending stocks. The market will find out tomorrow at 11:00 CST (10:00 MST).
The Ugly: The nearby December oat contract closed down 25.5 cents per bushel which is the largest daily loss in the contract. The oat contract is thinly traded and the first notice date is a couple of weeks away. These are warning signs that the oat contract will be volatile as it moves through the month of December. These moves have very little to do with the market fundamentals, so the volatility has very little to do with the tight stocks situation. Relief in the oat market will only occur when the 2022 harvest begins in the Northern Plains.