The president, Donald Trump, will resist attempts by senior staff to manage him too closely. Therefore, coherent messaging and effective management of the newsflow over a sustained period will prove impossible.
The Economist Intelligence Unit assesses the risk of Mr Trump being forced from office through impeachment as a result of the investigation run by the special counsel, Robert Mueller, into potential links between Mr Trump and Russian government officials as low.
We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank) to increase its policy interest rate, the Fed Funds rate, twice more in 2018, four times in 2019 and once in 2020. These rises will take the rate to close to 3.5%.
We forecast a short recession in 2020. As consumer price inflation accelerates, in late 2019 the Fed will signal a more aggressive pace of monetary tightening. This will be too much for the market to bear, and the economy will shrink for two consecutive quarters. The economy will grow by just under 1% in the year, owing to interest-rate cuts and some government stimulus, and will recover quickly in 2021.
Following a period of correction, we expect the US dollar to appreciate modestly from the second half of 2018, supported by a tighter monetary policy and good economic growth. We forecast renewed dollar depreciation from 2020 as the Fed eases monetary policy in response to the recession.
Fans & Blowers Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2020 - 2025) $ 4250 October 2020