Aiming for more - Publications Office of the EU
R&D investment scenarios for the next decade
This paper analyses four possible scenarios for R&D expenditures over the next decade and quantifies efforts from national governments and from the industry under these scenarios as well as the investment gap with respect to a 3% R&D intensity. The paper also analyses trends by country, showing a mixed picture across the EU, and extrapolates these trends over the next decade. The analysis shows that the European Union has stepped up its R&D intensity only slowly, leading to a persistent EUR 110 bn gap vis-à-vis the EU 2020 target of 3 % of GDP invested in R&D. A continuation of the current trend would see R&D intensity improving only marginally, reaching 2.74 % by 2030. Based on the scenarios presented, the paper presents several policy conclusions and avenues for action. The findings suggest that rather low increases in public R&D spending over the last decade call for more public investment in the coming years, further accompanied by a strengthened role of private investment. Furthermore, public R&D investment needs to ensure excellent public science bases and science-based innovation. Beyond effective investment strategies, policy makers also need to consider a broader impact of policies and pursue structural reforms of national R&I systems. Other framework conditions could enable broader diffusion of innovations and support the uptake of digital skills and competencies.
Personal author(s): Borunsky, Lukas ; Dumitrescu Goranov, Anca ; Rakic, Ruzica ; Ravet, Julien
Subject: epidemic , innovation , investment , research and development , research expenditure (EU) , simulation