Rolling back to the Safe Harbors! - GANNMarkets
Following the weak nonfarm payroll report, the number of JOLTS vacancies in the US fell for the first time in 8 months to 10.44 million in August. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said there was serious uncertainty about how long the inflationary pressure would last. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida underlined that risks to inflation are on the upside. Clarida also stated that the conditions for the Fed to reduce bond purchases have been met. In particular, in the September Consumer Expectations Survey of the New York Fed, we saw that the short-term median inflation expectations covering the next 12 months increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3 percent in September. On the other hand, the IMF set its growth expectation for the US economy for 2021 at 6.0 percent, below the previous forecast.
After all these developments, the risk appetite in the markets decreased significantly after the September consumer price index in the USA reached the highest level of the last 13 years with 5.4 percent. Expectations that the Fed would reduce its bond purchases were triggered again, along with the inflation concerns that were preserved in the markets. Thus, we have seen that dollar assets, which maintain their strong stance, are also in a retreat movement with the expectation that non-temporary inflation will increase the economic damage. Following this development, the US 10-year bond yields were withdrawn to 1.54 percent, and there was a remarkable recovery in safe harbors.
With the increase in inflationist concerns, the level of 23.0 dollars was exceeded in silver prices, which was caused by the slightly withdrawn dollar assets. We continue to follow the 24.0 initial resistance above this level and the 24.75 and 25.50 resistance levels above this level, especially in the continuation of the closings above this level in commodities. However, in case pricing below the 23.0 level is on the agenda again, it is worth paying attention to the 22,10 and 21.25 support levels below.
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