Title: Expected Probabilistic Hierarchies. Abstract: Hierarchical clustering has usually been addressed by discrete optimization using heuristics or continuous optimization of relaxed scores for hierarchies. In this work, we propose to optimize expected scores under a probabilistic model over hierarchies. (1) We show theoretically that the global optimum of the expected Dasgupta cost and Tree-Sampling divergence (TSD), two unsupervised metrics for hierarchical clustering scores, are equal to the optimum of their discrete counterparts contrary to some relaxed scores. (2) We propose Expected Probabilistic Hierarchies (EPH), a probabilistic model to learn hierarchies in data by optimizing expected scores. EPH uses differentiable hierarchy sampling enabling end-to-end gradient-descent based optimizations, and an unbiased subgraph sampling approach to scale to large datasets. (3) We evaluate EPH on synthetic and real-world datasets including vector and graph datasets. EPH outperforms all other approaches on quantitative results and provides meaningful hierarchies in qualitative evaluations.