Title: Semi-supervised learning with a principled likelihood from a generative model of data curation. Abstract: We currently do not have an understanding of semi-supervised learning (SSL) objectives such as pseudo-labelling and entropy minimization as log-likelihoods, which precludes the development of e.g. Bayesian SSL. Here, we note that benchmark image datasets such as CIFAR-10 are carefully curated, and we formulate SSL objectives as a log-likelihood in a generative model of data curation. We show that SSL objectives, from entropy minimization and pseudo-labelling, to state-of-the-art techniques similar to FixMatch can be understood as lower-bounds on our principled log-likelihood. We are thus able to introduce a Bayesian extension of SSL, which gives considerable improvements over standard SSL in the setting of 40 labelled points on CIFAR-10, with performance of $92.2\pm 0.3\%$ vs $88.6\%$ in the original FixMatch paper. Finally, our theory suggests that SSL is effective in part due to the statistical patterns induced by data curation. This provides an explanation of past results which show SSL performs better on clean datasets without any ``out of distribution'' examples. Confirming these results we find that SSL gave much larger performance improvements on curated than on uncurated data, using matched curated and uncurated datasets based on Galaxy Zoo 2.