Title: VARIATIONAL ADAPTIVE GRAPH TRANSFORMER FOR MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELING. Abstract: Multivariate time series (MTS) are widely collected by large-scale complex systems, such as internet services, IT infrastructures, and wearable devices. The modeling of MTS has long been an important but challenging task. To capture complex long-range dynamics, Transformers have been utilized in MTS modeling and achieved attractive performance. However, Transformers in general do not well capture the diverse relationships between different channels within MTS and have difficulty in modeling MTS with complex distributions due to the lack of stochasticity. In this paper, we first incorporate relational modeling into Transformer to develop an adaptive Graph Transformer (G-Trans) module for MTS. Then, we further consider stochastity by introducing a powerful embedding guided probabilistic generative module for G-Trans to construct Variational adaptive Graph Transformer (VG-Trans), which is a well-defined variational generative dynamic model. VG-Trans is utilized to learn expressive representations of MTS, being an plug-and-play framework that can be applied to forecasting and anomaly detection tasks of MTS. For efficient inference, we develop an autoencoding variational inference scheme with a combined prediction and reconstruction loss. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets show the efficient of VG-Trans on MTS modeling and improving the existing methods on VG-Trans outperforms state-of-the-art methods on a variety of MTS modeling tasks.