The Fed’s shift toward average inflation targeting should help to keep inflation expectations much closer to 2%, potentially putting a floor under how far prices can fall. In addition, the Fed (and most economists) have long believed that inflation expectations themselves play a role in future actual inflation.² We expect U.S. consumers to deploy the sizable buildup in personal savings accrued over the past few months—a result of government support such as stimulus checks and unemployment insurance top-ups.