Indeed, the conflict and its repercussions amount to a stagflationary economic shock, which is hitting the global economy at a moment in which it was already suffering from painful inflation and signs of a growth slowdown to come. While the magnitude of the shock isn’t yet known—and will be a function of the evolution of events—the trajectory of this particular geopolitical event is sufficient for us to: Add conviction to our existing call that the first half of 2022, particularly the second quarter, could be mired in stagflationary dynamics (lower growth, higher inflation), persistent volatility, and more frequent bouts of risk aversion