Herman Kahn
Kahn was less successful later in his career when he turned his attention to general economics and politics. His ideas on Japan seemed good at the time, but now seem to be not quite right. He predicted that Japan would become the world's third superstate and a military superpower. This he based on Japan's record after 1946, which was spectacular, with quality production and undercutting markets in the older economies. As it turned out, Japan's economy stalled in the 1980s, and has never recovered its previous growth rate. The role he predicted for Japan is now filled by China, a country with a huge reserve of poorly-paid workers and significant military forces. However, Japan has the second largest economy in the region, and now has good relations with the U.S.A.