FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight is famous for correctly predicting the winner of all 50 states in the 2012 United States presidential election. In the 2016 election, FiveThirtyEight said that Donald Trump had a 28.6% chance to win. Trump did win. However, 28.6% was much higher than other people thought, such as The New York Times and The Economist.