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June 1994, Vol. 117, No. 6
Randy E. Ilg
T he number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate are among the most visible and politically sensitive economic statistics. But while these aggregate measures certainly are important, policies undertaken to lessen the extent of unemployment, or its impact after the fact, must be based on a detailed knowledge of the makeup of the jobseeking population. For example, joblessness among teenagers can be quite different, in both cause and effect, from the joblessness among adult men and women with families. Similarly, policy implications of short-term unemployment, such as that which occurs for seasonal reasons or because of temporary fluctuations in product demand, are much different from those associated with long-term unemployment stemming from chronic deficiencies in demand or from structural problems.
In recent years, the amount of time that persons go jobless has been a critical aspect of the discussion regarding whether, and for how long, extended unemployment insurance benefits might be provided for those whose normal coverage has expired. This brief analysis focuses on the extent of long-term unemployment associated with the 1990-91 recession and its aftermath, and compares it with conditions related to other major recessions of the past two decades. (The minor recession that occurred in 1980 is not addressed separately here.)
Data on the long-term unemployed-those jobless 27 weeks and longer (or more than 6 months)-suggest similarities among the last three major recessions, but also indicate some differences.1 In each case, the incidence of long-term unemployment continued to increase following the official end of the recession.2 Levels peaked and began to improve slightly more than a half year after the official end of the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions, but were much slower to peak following the 1990-91 recession, as were other major labor market indicators.3
This excerpt is from an article published in the June 1994 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The full text of the article is available in Adobe Acrobat's Portable Document Format (PDF). See How to view a PDF file for more information.
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1 The source of these data is the Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of nearly 60,000 households, conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2 The National Bureau of Economic Research, a private research organization, determines the official starting and ending dates of recessions by examining changes in many economic indicators, including-but not limited to-employment and unemployment.
3 See Jennifer Gardner, "The 1990-91 recession: how bad was the labor market?" on pp. 3-11 of this issue, for additional information on the most recent downturn.
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