text: 1. Projections of real GDP growth, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are
  fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth rates, i.e. percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to
  the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in
  the price index for personal consumption expenditures and the price index for personal consumption expenditures
  excluding food and energy, respectively. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian
  unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her
  assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants'
  projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three
  highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to text
  
  * June economic projections for the second half of 2007 are shown in parentheses.
  These are computed from the projections for 2007 submitted ahead of the June FOMC meeting assuming that growth and
  inflation in the first half of 2007 were as predicted in the June Greenbook. Growth and inflation are reported at
  annualized rates. The unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to table
  
  Participants' Projections
  
  Projection
  
  Real GDP Growth
  
  Unemployment Rate (%, Q4)
  
  Total PCE Inflation
  
  Core PCE Inflation
  
  1
  
  2.6
  
  4.7
  
  2.1
  
  1.7
  
  2
  
  2.8
  
  4.7
  
  2.1
  
  1.9
  
  3
  
  2.6
  
  4.7
  
  1.9
  
  1.7
  
  4
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  1.5
  
  1.9
  
  5
  
  2.8
  
  4.7
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  6
  
  2.6
  
  4.8
  
  2.3
  
  1.9
  
  7
  
  2.6
  
  4.8
  
  2.1
  
  1.9
  
  8
  
  2.8
  
  4.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  9
  
  2.6
  
  4.7
  
  1.5
  
  1.7
  
  10
  
  2.6
  
  4.7
  
  2.1
  
  2.3
  
  11
  
  2.6
  
  4.8
  
  2.1
  
  1.7
  
  12
  
  2.2
  
  4.8
  
  1.9
  
  2.3
  
  13
  
  2.6
  
  4.8
  
  2.1
  
  1.9
  
  14
  
  3.2
  
  4.7
  
  2.5
  
  1.9
  
  15
  
  2.6
  
  4.8
  
  2.3
  
  1.9
  
  16
  
  2.6
  
  4.7
  
  2.1
  
  1.7
  
  17
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  1.9
  
  1.7
  
  1. Projections for the second half of 2007 implied by participants' October
  projections for 2007 and for the first half of 2007. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. The
  unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to text
  
  Table 2October Economic Projections
  
  Respondent
  
  Year
  
  GDP Growth
  
  Unemployment Rate
  
  Total PCE Inflation
  
  Core PCE Inflation
  
  1
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.7
  
  3.0
  
  1.8
  
  2
  
  2007
  
  2.5
  
  4.7
  
  3.0
  
  1.9
  
  3
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.7
  
  2.9
  
  1.8
  
  4
  
  2007
  
  2.3
  
  4.8
  
  2.7
  
  1.9
  
  5
  
  2007
  
  2.5
  
  4.7
  
  2.9
  
  1.9
  
  6
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  3.1
  
  1.9
  
  7
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  3.0
  
  1.9
  
  8
  
  2007
  
  2.5
  
  4.8
  
  2.8
  
  1.8
  
  9
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.7
  
  2.7
  
  1.8
  
  10
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.7
  
  3.0
  
  2.1
  
  11
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  3.0
  
  1.8
  
  12
  
  2007
  
  2.2
  
  4.8
  
  2.9
  
  2.1
  
  13
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  3.0
  
  1.9
  
  14
  
  2007
  
  2.7
  
  4.7
  
  3.2
  
  1.9
  
  15
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  3.1
  
  1.9
  
  16
  
  2007
  
  2.4
  
  4.7
  
  3.0
  
  1.8
  
  17
  
  2007
  
  2.3
  
  4.8
  
  2.9
  
  1.8
  
  1
  
  2008
  
  1.7
  
  4.8
  
  1.8
  
  1.9
  
  2
  
  2008
  
  2.2
  
  4.9
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  3
  
  2008
  
  2.6
  
  4.6
  
  1.9
  
  1.7
  
  4
  
  2008
  
  2.5
  
  5.0
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  5
  
  2008
  
  1.6
  
  4.9
  
  2.0
  
  1.9
  
  6
  
  2008
  
  2.2
  
  4.8
  
  2.3
  
  1.8
  
  7
  
  2008
  
  2.1
  
  4.9
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  8
  
  2008
  
  2.5
  
  4.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  9
  
  2008
  
  2.4
  
  4.9
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  10
  
  2008
  
  2.2
  
  4.8
  
  2.0
  
  2.0
  
  11
  
  2008
  
  1.6
  
  5.0
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  12
  
  2008
  
  2.6
  
  4.9
  
  2.0
  
  1.9
  
  13
  
  2008
  
  2.1
  
  4.9
  
  2.1
  
  2.0
  
  14
  
  2008
  
  2.3
  
  4.8
  
  2.1
  
  2.0
  
  15
  
  2008
  
  2.1
  
  5.0
  
  2.1
  
  1.9
  
  16
  
  2008
  
  1.8
  
  4.8
  
  2.2
  
  1.9
  
  17
  
  2008
  
  2.5
  
  4.9
  
  1.9
  
  1.8
  
  1
  
  2009
  
  2.2
  
  4.8
  
  1.9
  
  2.0
  
  2
  
  2009
  
  2.5
  
  4.9
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  3
  
  2009
  
  2.7
  
  4.6
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  4
  
  2009
  
  2.5
  
  5.0
  
  1.5
  
  1.5
  
  5
  
  2009
  
  2.3
  
  4.9
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  6
  
  2009
  
  2.5
  
  4.7
  
  2.2
  
  1.7
  
  7
  
  2009
  
  2.4
  
  4.9
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  8
  
  2009
  
  2.8
  
  4.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  9
  
  2009
  
  2.7
  
  5.0
  
  1.5
  
  1.5
  
  10
  
  2009
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  1.8
  
  1.9
  
  11
  
  2009
  
  2.5
  
  4.8
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  12
  
  2009
  
  2.7
  
  5.0
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  13
  
  2009
  
  2.4
  
  4.9
  
  2.0
  
  1.9
  
  14
  
  2009
  
  2.0
  
  4.9
  
  2.1
  
  2.0
  
  15
  
  2009
  
  2.4
  
  4.9
  
  2.0
  
  1.9
  
  16
  
  2009
  
  2.3
  
  4.8
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  17
  
  2009
  
  2.6
  
  4.9
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  1
  
  2010
  
  2.2
  
  4.8
  
  2.0
  
  2.0
  
  2
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  4.9
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  3
  
  2010
  
  2.6
  
  4.6
  
  1.6
  
  1.6
  
  4
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  5.0
  
  1.5
  
  1.5
  
  5
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  4.8
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  6
  
  2010
  
  2.7
  
  4.6
  
  2.0
  
  1.7
  
  7
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  4.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  8
  
  2010
  
  2.6
  
  4.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  9
  
  2010
  
  2.7
  
  5.0
  
  1.5
  
  1.5
  
  10
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  4.7
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  11
  
  2010
  
  2.4
  
  4.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  12
  
  2010
  
  2.7
  
  5.0
  
  1.5
  
  1.5
  
  13
  
  2010
  
  2.6
  
  4.9
  
  1.9
  
  1.8
  
  14
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  4.7
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  15
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  4.9
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  16
  
  2010
  
  2.3
  
  4.8
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  17
  
  2010
  
  2.5
  
  4.9
  
  1.8
  
  1.8
  
  Chart 1Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections
  
  Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2007 through 2010. Actual data for years 2002 through 2006. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.
  
  Real GDP GrowthPercent
  
  2002
  
  2003
  
  2004
  
  2005
  
  2006
  
  2007
  
  2008
  
  2009
  
  2010
  
  Actual
  
  1.9
  
  3.7
  
  3.1
  
  2.9
  
  2.6
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  Upper End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  2.7
  
  2.6
  
  2.8
  
  2.7
  
  Upper End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  2.5
  
  2.5
  
  2.7
  
  2.6
  
  Lower End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  2.4
  
  1.8
  
  2.3
  
  2.5
  
  Lower End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  2.2
  
  1.6
  
  2.0
  
  2.2
  
  Unemployment RatePercent
  
  2002
  
  2003
  
  2004
  
  2005
  
  2006
  
  2007
  
  2008
  
  2009
  
  2010
  
  Actual
  
  5.9
  
  5.8
  
  5.4
  
  5.0
  
  4.5
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  Upper End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  4.8
  
  5.0
  
  5.0
  
  5.0
  
  Upper End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  4.8
  
  4.9
  
  4.9
  
  4.9
  
  Lower End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  4.7
  
  4.8
  
  4.8
  
  4.7
  
  Lower End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  4.7
  
  4.6
  
  4.6
  
  4.6
  
  PCE InflationPercent
  
  2002
  
  2003
  
  2004
  
  2005
  
  2006
  
  2007
  
  2008
  
  2009
  
  2010
  
  Actual
  
  1.8
  
  1.9
  
  3.1
  
  3.2
  
  1.9
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  Upper End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  3.2
  
  2.3
  
  2.2
  
  2.0
  
  Upper End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  3.0
  
  2.1
  
  2.0
  
  1.9
  
  Lower End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  2.9
  
  1.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.6
  
  Lower End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  2.7
  
  1.7
  
  1.5
  
  1.5
  
  Core PCE InflationPercent
  
  2002
  
  2003
  
  2004
  
  2005
  
  2006
  
  2007
  
  2008
  
  2009
  
  2010
  
  Actual
  
  1.6
  
  1.4
  
  2.2
  
  2.2
  
  2.3
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  Upper End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  2.1
  
  2.0
  
  2.0
  
  2.0
  
  Upper End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  1.9
  
  Lower End of Central Tendency
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  1.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.7
  
  1.6
  
  Lower End of Range
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  -
  
  1.8
  
  1.7
  
  1.5
  
  1.5
  
  Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth
  
  2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections
  relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
  
  Chart 2(a)Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)
  
  Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that
  were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.
  
  Chart 2(b)Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)
  
  Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that
  were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.