A client’s military capabilities are the second independent variable. The patron evaluates whether the client can effectively deter an attack from the client’s main adversary, and prevail militarily if deterrence fails. In this situation, the patron conducts a net assessment that combines quantitative measurements and qualitative indicators to infer the strength of the opposing militaries. It must consider dynamic and contextual factors that affect the client’s capabilities in both the present and the short-term future. When the client enjoys a favorable military balance, a transfer of arms could encourage the client to undertake offensive operations. In such situations, particularly when the patron and client have a formal alliance, the patron is unlikely to transfer arms that could embolden its client and thereby entrap the patron. When the client’s military capabilities are low relative to its adversary, however, arms transfers could enhance the client’s deterrence and defense capabilities while signaling the patron’s support. An example of a client with high (conventional) military capabilities is South Korea relative to North Korea. An example of a client with low military capabilities is Taiwan relative to China.27
The patron evaluates whether the client can effectively deter an attack from the client’s main adversary, and prevail militarily if deterrence fails the patron conducts a net assessment that combines quantitative measurements and qualitative indicators to infer the strength of the opposing militaries. It must consider dynamic and contextual factors that affect the client’s capabilities in both the present and the short-term future. a transfer of arms could encourage the client to undertake offensive operations When the client’s military capabilities are low relative to its adversary, however, arms transfers could enhance the client’s deterrence and defense capabilities while signaling the patron’s support. An example of a client with low military capabilities is Taiwan relative to China.27