Argument: Turkey would have the largest population of all member states and would therefore hold a disproportionate amount of voting power

Turkey is a large country in European terms, but even if its population would make it the largest single EU member by 2020, this would still only give it some 15% of the total in an enlarged EU of 25 countries or more. This is a much smaller proportion than Germany represented in the EU of 15 before the 2004 enlargement (21.9%) [1] , so it is ridiculous to argue that Turkey would dominate EU decision-making. It would not gain full status for many years anyway; an inauguration period, in which it had semi-membership status, would introduce it slowly to the process. Turkey would not be able to change EU policy to suit itself as soon as it arrives.

[1] http://www.demographia.com/db-eu-pop.htm European Union (EU-15) &amp; Constituent Nation Population from 1950 &amp; Projections to 2050, Demographia, 2001 http://www.demographia.com/db-eu-pop.htm

Candidate 1: "Turkey is not a European country - 95% of the nation’s landmass is on the wrong side of the Hellespont, in Asia. If Turkey is allowed into the European Union, not only would the institution’s very name become nonsensical, but it would be impossible to place a limit upon its potential future expansion. If Gibraltar belonged to Morocco rather than Britain, would we have said yes to Morocco’s application to join the European Union? Former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing told Le Monde in 2002 - "The day after you open negotiations with Turkey, you would have a Moroccan demand (for membership of the union)" [1] . One could of course then argue that Turkey should not be the only geographically non-European member of the European Union and that Morocco and Armenia would make excellent candidates. But if Morocco, why not Algeria? If Armenia, why not Azerbaijan?

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in January 2007: "Turkey has no place inside the European Union. I want to say that Europe must give itself borders, that not all countries have a vocation to become members of Europe, beginning with Turkey which has no place inside the European Union. Enlarging Europe with no limit risks destroying European political union, and that I do not accept." [2] If there is to be a limit then it makes sense that this limit should be at Europe’s geographical borders.

[1] http://www.parapundit.com/archives/000564.html ‘Turkey not part of Europe’ by Randall Parker, 8th November 2002

[2] http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=159133 15th January 2007"
Candidate 2: "Turkey is not a Christian country but a Muslim one, unlike all the current or prospective EU states, which have been shaped by a shared legacy of Christian values, history and culture. Turkeys AK party has brought on many changes that are interpreted as being non-secular or rooted in Islam. Indeed Turkey’s history represents a clear rejection of any Christian tradition, from the centuries-long Ottoman Muslim conquest of Byzantine Christian territories, to the early twentieth-century population exchange with Greece which removed millions of long-established Christian families from Turkish territory. Most recently, Turks have several times elected to government a party with Islamist roots, suspected of wishing to undermine the country’s secular constitution [1] . Turkey is not as moderate a country as it would seem.

[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10288919 ‘Turkey denies break with Europe’, BBC 10th June 2010"
Candidate 3: "Turkey is too big to be safely included within the EU. The Turkish population - estimated at 65.6 million in 2000 - is on current growth trends forecast to rise to 87.3 million by 2025, making it the largest single state in the EU [1] . As population size determines representation and voting strength in the Council of Ministers, and in the European Parliament, Turkey would be able to dominate EU decision-making and set its own agenda, to the disadvantage of existing members.

[1] http://www.planbleu.org/publications/demo_uk_tur.pdf Population projections of countries and their coastal regions: Turkey"
Candidate 4: "Turkey has a large number of pending cases to be addressed by the European Court of Human Rights [1] . Police use of torture is widespread against PKK members and sympathisers. Turkey refuses even to acknowledge that Kurds have a separate culture and ethnicity, referring to them as 'Mountain Turks'. Peaceful protestors, including (but not only) those wanting improved rights for the Kurdish minority, are still tried and imprisoned under anti-terrorist laws. The UN Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances reported that in 1994 there were over 50 disappearances in Turkey, more than in any other country [2] . There are also restrictions on the freedom of the press.

It is true that reforms have begun, but there are questions as to how thoroughly these will be implemented. And in cases where judgments have been put forward by the European Court of Human Rights, Turkey is often loath to implement the advice of the court, as in the Loizou Case [3] . Until political dissidents are freed, those accused of human rights abuses are brought to trial and punished, and Kurds are given equal rights, Turkey cannot be judged a suitable candidate for EU accession.

[1] https://wcd.coe.int/wcd/ViewDoc.jsp?id=1511197 Report by Thomas Hammarberg, Commissioner for Human Rights of the Council of Europe, 1st October 2009

[2] http://www.unhchr.ch/Huridocda/Huridoca.nsf/TestFrame/efb18eb4337a6c768025672b003c3b30?Opendocument United Nations Commission on Human Rights

[3] http://sim.law.uu.nl/SIM/CaseLaw/hof.nsf/e4ca7ef017f8c045c1256849004787f5/f2482d21f5843593c12577c7003642f5?OpenDocument Netherlands Institute of Human Rights, summary Loizuo and others v Turkey"
Candidate 5: "Turkey does not have a stable democracy. The military has intervened three times to remove governments of which it disapproved in recent decades, most recently in 1997 [1] . The nature of the struggle between Turkey's generals - who try and keep the country as secular as possible (arguably at the expense of the right of the people to decide for themselves which party best represents their views) - and the increase in votes and influence for conservative Islamic political views paves for an unstable political environment which is vulnerable to extremism [2] .

Turkey has some dangerous neighbours and its inclusion within the EU would expose Europe to a greatly increased risk of crisis and conflict. The Caucasus is very unstable, with some of its nations looking to Turkey for support for religious and cultural reasons. A Middle Eastern border would heavily involve the EU in the Israeli-Arab conflict and give it a border with an aggressive and unstable Iraq (and Iran), with whom it would share an assertive Kurdish minority seeking statehood. Turkey even has major disputes with Greece, a current EU member, over territory in the Aegean and over the divided Island of Cyprus, where it alone recognises and backs the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, preventing a settlement.

[1] http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=363&amp;year=2008&amp;country=7508 Map of Freedom in The World: Turkey

[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/01/opinion/01tue2.html ‘Secularism and Democracy in Turkey’, Editorial New York Times, 1st May 2007"

Turkey is too big to be safely included within the EU. The Turkish population - estimated at 65.6 million in 2000 - is on current growth trends forecast to rise to 87.3 million by 2025, making it the largest single state in the EU [1] . As population size determines representation and voting strength in the Council of Ministers, and in the European Parliament, Turkey would be able to dominate EU decision-making and set its own agenda, to the disadvantage of existing members.

[1] http://www.planbleu.org/publications/demo_uk_tur.pdf Population projections of countries and their coastal regions: Turkey
