Argument: Russian and US strategic interests conflict

Contradictions between Russian and U.S. interests will always exist. The United States is not Russia's ally, and it can be confidently predicted that it never will be. While politically the two countries sometimes temporarily need each other to face global challenges, as long as it does not harm them politically or economically, militarily they will remain positioned as strategic enemies. NATO is a good example of this. While the United States believes NATO brings peace and stability Russia feels directly threatened by NATO expansion into states that were once a part of the Soviet Union such as the Baltic states or the possibility of expansion to Ukraine or Georgia. [1] There have even been suggestions that Russia’s 2008 conflict with Georgia was to prevent Georgia proceeding down the path to NATO membership with US encouragement. A view partially substantiated by President Putin himself “it has become absolutely clear that the desire of Georgian authorities to join NATO is motivated not by their ambition to form part of a global security system and contribute to the strengthening of international peace. Tbilisi's NATO bid is determined by other considerations, namely an attempt to embroil other nations in its bloody undertakings… from a legal point of view, Russia's actions in South Ossetia are totally legitimate.” [2] As a result America's relations with Russia will never resemble its relations with France or Great Britain. U.S. strategic nuclear planning will always envisage a potential Russian nuclear attack on targets on American territory. Likewise, Russian planners will not rule out an American attack on Russian targets.

[1] Neuger, James G., and Alison, Sebastian, ‘Putin Says NATO Expansion Is Direct Threat to Russia (Update 2)’, Bloomberg, 4 April 2008, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=aq34xuTFCvx0&amp;refe...

[2] President Putting quoted in ‘South Ossetia – The Stakes’, globalsecurity.org, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/south-ossetia-9.htm accessed 27/4/11

Candidate 1: "Desire to stabilize Central Asia

September 11th brought a change in how the United States dealt with the autocratic rulers of Central Asia, bringing policy more into line with Moscow’s interests. The US changed from promoting democracy in the region to trying to keep the region stable by supporting the incumbent regimes. For example Uzbekistan was given US political, military and economic support despite human rights violations. [1] There were also secondary US interests that were not related to terrorism such as attempting to limit the production of drugs and the corruption this causes. President Putin recognised that “Terrorism and drugs are absolutely kindred phenomena.” With Russia’s immense drug problems “We have a conspicuous growth of the share of highly concentrated drugs, and in the first place Afghan heroin” [2] The promotion of “peace and stability to Afghanistan” and the promised aid to “rebuild Afghanistan and the region economically,” were also recognised by George Bush as US interests in the region. [3] There has therefore in the aftermath of 9/11 been a dovetailing of interests in central Asia and in particular Afghanistan and on the war on drugs.

[1] Lena Jonson, Vladimir Putin and Central Asia The Shaping of Russian Foreign Policy, (I.B. Tauris, London, 2004), p.64.

[2] Speech by President Vladimir Putin at a Meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Moscow, September 28, 2001

[3] Joint Statement by President George W. Bush and President Vladimir V. Putin on Afghanistan, Office of the Press Secretary, November 13, 2001, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/11/20011113-9.html"
Candidate 2: "This is a problem with perception, not with the fundamentals on the ground. The United States can reassure Russia that missile defence and the expansion of NATO is not directed at Russia. NATO has accommodated Russia by not expanding into the Former Soviet Union (excluding the Baltic states) so there is little reason for Russia to feel encircled. On Missile defence President Obama has also listened to Russian concerns and has scaled it back. Interceptors will be on warships rather than in former Warsaw bloc countries Poland and Czech Republic this helps to show Russia that the focus of missile defence really is on defending against Iran and North Korea rather than Russia. [1]

[1] Sanger, David E., and Broad, William J., ‘New Missile Shield Strategy Scales Back Reagan’s Vision’, The New York Times, 17 September 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/18/world/europe/18assess.html"
Candidate 3: "Russian and the US have many areas where they can cooperate.

In 2009 President Obama stated “I believe that on the fundamental issues that will shape this century, Americans and Russians share common interests that form a basis for cooperation.” [1] This makes the real question ‘how to cooperate’ rather that whether there should be cooperation. Military transparency, particularly on nuclear weapons is necessary. “Russia and the United States matter to one another, and how well or how poorly we manage our interactions matters to the rest of the world. The two of us control more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, and our leadership can do more than anyone else’s to help secure nuclear material globally and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.” [2] This continued cooperation on nuclear issues in particular has been demonstrated with the signing of the ‘New START’ treaty on 8th April 2010.

There are many other areas where cooperation between the America and Russia is vital as well. As is demonstrated by the geopolitical situation “Russia sits astride Europe, Asia and the broader Middle East – three regions whose future will shape American interests for many years to come. And in an era in which common challenges” so cooperation is necessary for the United States, but also for Russia as it would not want the US acting without its cooperation. According to Undersecretary of State Burns there are also many issues “non-proliferation, climate change, energy security, the struggle against terrorism, and many more – demand common action more than at any other period in human history, the United States and Russia have a lot more to gain by working together than by working apart.” [3]

[1] Barak Obama, Obama’s Speech in Moscow, President addresses New Economic School graduation, 7/7/09, http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2009/July/20090707062839abretnuh3.549922e-02.html&amp;distid=ucs#ixzz1K4z0wqG3 accessed 20/4/11

[2] William J. Burns, The United States and Russia in a New Era: One Year After "Reset", Remarks to the Center for American Progress, Washington DC, 14th April 2010, http://www.state.gov/p/us/rm/2010/140179.htm accessed 10/4/11

[3] William J. Burns, The United States and Russia in a New Era: One Year After "Reset", Remarks to the Center for American Progress, Washington DC, 14th April 2010, http://www.state.gov/p/us/rm/2010/140179.htm accessed 10/4/11"
Candidate 4: ""Kupchan: Russian Opposition to Kosovo Independence ‘Perplexing’". (Charles A. Kupchan, CFR Senior Fellow for Europe Studies). US Council on Foreign Relations. December 18, 2007 - "But on the question of Kosovo, direct Russian interests are difficult to discern, and therefore it appears that Russia’s backing of Serbia is part of a more muscular Russian policy, and a desire to stand up to the United States and the EU across the board. The problem with Russia’s position is that it has the potential to lead to bloodshed.

The Russian support for Serbia’s unwillingness to sign off on Kosovo’s independence makes it more likely that Serbs still in Kosovo will not accept a declaration of independence. It makes it likely that the northern part of Kosovo might secede from an independent Kosovo. It makes it more likely that paramilitaries in Serbia might resort to violence if this process moves forward. In that sense, the Russian position is quite problematic. And it remains to be seen whether the Russians follow through on their hints that they might recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia in retaliation for Kosovo’s independence. Some even suggest that they might send troops into the southern military districts of the Russian Federation, possibly precipitating violence in Georgia.""
Candidate 5: "No countries economic interests exactly match yet that does not lead to conflict. The European Union and United States have had several trade wars, for example over the EU giving preferential treatment for Caribbean producers of Bananas, [1] but are still close partners in NATO. The reset is having an effect in bringing Russia and the US closer together economically, Vice President Biden argues that trade between the two countries has a long way to grow and economic interests will get closer. “One way to realize the potential of that relationship is to bring Russia more fully into the international trading system. That is why we strongly support Russia’s effort to join the World Trade Organization.” [2] This would reduce and help manage any economic conflicts between both powers meaning that they will not get in the way of good relations.

[1] Business:The Economy WTO approves banana sanctions, BBC News, 19/4/99, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/the_economy/322938.stm accessed 6/5/11

[2] Joseph R. Biden Jr., ‘The Next Steps in the U.S.-Russia Reset’, The New York Times, 13/3/11, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/opinion/14iht-edbiden14.html accessed 6/5/11"
Candidate 6: "Shared experience of terrorism

A shared experience of terrorism means both have long term reasons to cooperate against it. Russia already had experience with terrorism with a string of bombings in the summer of 1999 which the Russian government blamed on the Chechans. [1] As a result of this on-going Chechen terrorism the Russian government was keen to cooperate in any counter terrorist effort there may be. Russian officials such as Sergey Ordzhonikidze spoke of the grief they shared with the American people “The hearts of Russians who know first-hand what terrorism is like are also filled with grief for all those who fell victim to terrorism in other parts of the planet.” [2] President Putin himself agreed with this immediately after the 9/11 attacks “[Russia is] deeply shocked by the reports of the tragic events that occurred today in the United States. The barbaric terrorist attacks against innocent people evoked the anger and indignation of the Russian people.” [3] Both the terrorists who had been attacking Russia and the 9/11 attackers were motivated by an extremist version of Islam, this gives both Russia and the United States a mutual interest in combating this terrorism wherever it may be occurring. This continues to give both Russia and the United States an interest in solving the problems that create terrorism such as the Israel-Palestinian conflict and keeping the Taliban out of power in Afghanistan. That both understand the other’s motivations makes this link much stronger.

[1] Mark Kramer, Guerrilla Warfare, Counter Insurgency and Terrorism in the North Caucuses: The Military Dimension of the Russia-Chechen conflict, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.57, No.2, (March, 2005), pp.209-290, p.212

[2] Statement by Sergey A. Ordzhonikidze, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, on agenda item 166 of the 56 session of the UN General Assembly: Measures to eliminate international terrorism New York, October 1, 2001

[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin telegram of condolence to US President George W. Bush, September 11, 2001, http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/news/2001/09/136023.shtml accessed 20/4/11"
Candidate 7: "The strategic interests of Russia and the west will not always conflict. In the post-Cold War, post-September 11 world, the political presumptions that require a substantial reliance on nuclear forces do not exist, and, in fact, cannot exist. 9/11 showed that national interests can change. The terrorist attacks instantly moved terrorism to the top of the US security agenda involving recognition of it as a global and military problem. [1] Russia and the United States now must jointly face a host of wider problems, from environmental degradation to the growth of ethnic violence, and the challenges to nation-states posed by globalization. Global problems are not decreasing, but, quite the opposite, there are new ones looming on the horizon; this will forge a long-term close economic, scientific and political relationship between Russia and the United States. The National Security Strategy of September 2002 recognised that closer relations are built on common national interests; They [Russian policy makers] understand, increasingly, that Cold War approaches do not serve their national interests and that Russian and American strategic interests overlap in many areas. [2]

[1] Iver B. Neumann, ‘Russia as a Great Power’, in Jakob Hedenskog et al (eds.) Russia as a Great Power Dimensions of Security under Putin, (Routledge, London, 2005), pp.13-28, p.18

[2] The National Security Strategy of the United States of America September 2002, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/national/nss-020920.pdf pp.26-27. Accessed 20/4/11"
Candidate 8: "No countries economic interests exactly match yet that does not lead to conflict. The European Union and United States have had several trade wars, for example over the EU giving preferential treatment for Caribbean producers of Bananas, [1] but are still close partners in NATO. The reset is having an effect in bringing Russia and the US closer together economically, Vice President Biden argues that trade between the two countries has a long way to grow and economic interests will get closer. “One way to realize the potential of that relationship is to bring Russia more fully into the international trading system. That is why we strongly support Russia’s effort to join the World Trade Organization.” [2] This would reduce and help manage any economic conflicts between both powers meaning that they will not get in the way of good relations.

[1] Business:The Economy WTO approves banana sanctions, BBC News, 19/4/99, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/the_economy/322938.stm accessed 6/5/11

[2] Joseph R. Biden Jr., ‘The Next Steps in the U.S.-Russia Reset’, The New York Times, 13/3/11, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/opinion/14iht-edbiden14.html accessed 6/5/11"
Candidate 9: "Economically compatible

There is a huge potential for economic cooperation between two of the biggest states in the world. Russia desperately needs investment and technology to modernize its economy. The USA can offer this and more. It has helped Russia to get into the World Trade Organization, [1] to integrate it into the global economy, put pressure on Russian companies to drop their corrupt ways and adopt modern modes of operation. Russia also has plenty of chips to bring to the table. Pumping seven million barrels a day, Russia is second only to the Saudis in oil production. The Bush team saw Russia as a source for crude oil should U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia deteriorate, this is why at the Moscow summit in May, 2002, Bush and Putin launched “an energy dialogue to strengthen the overall relationship between our countries, and to enhance global energy security, international strategic stability, and regional cooperation.” [2] The United States has invested whenever it could in Russian oil and gas despite the difficulties private companies like Yukos have faced with government tax demands. For example in October 2001, Exxon Mobil announced that the Sakhalin 1 project was profitable and outlined the company’s plans to invest $30 billion by 2030. [3]

[1] Kirk, ‘Full Statement by Ambassador Kirk Regarding the Invitation to Russia to Join the WTO’, Office of the United States Trade Representative, December 2011, http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/press-releases/2011/december/u...

[2] William Ratliff, ‘Russia’s Oil in America’s Future: Policy, Pipelines, and Prospects, Hoover Institution, 1/9/03, http://www.hoover.org/publications/monographs/27207 accessed 04/5/11

[3] Tamara Troyakova and Elizabeth Wishnick, ‘Integration or Disintegration: Challenges for the Russian Far East in the Asia-Pacific Region, p.18. http://src-h.slav.hokudai.ac.jp/coe21/publish/no1/wishnick.pdf accessed 6/5/11"

The strategic interests of Russia and the west will not always conflict. In the post-Cold War, post-September 11 world, the political presumptions that require a substantial reliance on nuclear forces do not exist, and, in fact, cannot exist. 9/11 showed that national interests can change. The terrorist attacks instantly moved terrorism to the top of the US security agenda involving recognition of it as a global and military problem. [1] Russia and the United States now must jointly face a host of wider problems, from environmental degradation to the growth of ethnic violence, and the challenges to nation-states posed by globalization. Global problems are not decreasing, but, quite the opposite, there are new ones looming on the horizon; this will forge a long-term close economic, scientific and political relationship between Russia and the United States. The National Security Strategy of September 2002 recognised that closer relations are built on common national interests; They [Russian policy makers] understand, increasingly, that Cold War approaches do not serve their national interests and that Russian and American strategic interests overlap in many areas. [2]

[1] Iver B. Neumann, ‘Russia as a Great Power’, in Jakob Hedenskog et al (eds.) Russia as a Great Power Dimensions of Security under Putin, (Routledge, London, 2005), pp.13-28, p.18

[2] The National Security Strategy of the United States of America September 2002, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/national/nss-020920.pdf pp.26-27. Accessed 20/4/11
