It is unclear how military presence on the ground prevents oil disruption. To begin with, the proposition of an Iranian hegemony, where an ascendant Iran seizes control of major oil terminals or goes further and seizes whole state territories, is wildly exaggerated. Iran simply lacks the economic/military capacity to dominate its region. Its GDP is 439.51 $US billion, compared to the combined GDP of its GCC enemies of $1.505 trillion. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute [SIPRI], it devotes just “three percent of its gdp on its military, less than the proportions spent by Saudi Arabia (ten percent), Israel (six percent), Iraq (five percent), and Jordan (four percent), putting Iran in eighth place in the Middle East in terms of defense spending as a percentage of gdp. Iran’s spending lags in absolute terms, as well. In 2016, for example, Saudi Arabia spent $63.7 billion on defense, five times Iran’s $12.7 billion.”75 As Anthony Cordesman notes, “Trends sharply favor Arab states even if U.S. and European spending on power projection is ignored.”76 Israel, too, is more than capable of deterring any Iranian aggression, with a secure second strike nuclear capability and a demonstrated capacity to align and bargain with Arab states. As things stand, Iran’s efforts to extend its presence and influence have provoked counter-balancing by informal Saudi-Israel coalition. There is no realistic possibility in the decades ahead of a successful Iranian bid for hegemony.
the proposition of an Iranian hegemony is wildly exaggerated Iran simply lacks the economic/military capacity to dominate its region Its GDP is 439 billion, compared to the combined GDP of its GCC enemies of 1.505 trillion According to SIPRI], it devotes just “three percent of its gdp on its military, less than the proportions spent by Saudi Arabia Israel Iraq and Jordan putting Iran in eighth place in the Middle East in terms of defense spending as a percentage of gdp. Iran’s spending lags in absolute terms, as well Trends sharply favor Arab states even if U.S. and European spending on power projection is ignored Israel, too, is more than capable of deterring any Iranian aggression, with a secure second strike nuclear capability and a demonstrated capacity to align and bargain with Arab states Iran’s efforts to extend its presence and influence have provoked counter-balancing by informal Saudi-Israel coalition There is no realistic possibility in the decades ahead of a successful Iranian bid for hegemony.