The crisis in Ukraine is unlikely to spark a military confrontation between the US and Russia, a former national security adviser to the US government says.¶ But Dr Charles Kupchan, who is a Russian specialist, says it is the most serious crisis between Russia and the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War and an angry and "reckless" president Vladimir Putin could escalate the situation.¶ Dr Kupchan advised the first Clinton administration in the US and is now Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.¶ He says the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Russia are next to nil, despite this being a more serious crisis than the incursion of Russian forces in Georgia in 2008.¶ "We don't know where this is going," Dr Kupchan said.¶ "We do know that Putin has moved into the Crimea and taken control of the peninsula. Whether he goes beyond that and tries to insert Russian forces into eastern Ukraine is unclear.¶ "But even if he does not, we still are at a very serious standoff between Russia and the Western alliance."¶ Russia 'has crossed the line'¶ Dr Kupchan, who advised the first Clinton administration, says US president Barack Obama is under pressure to respond forcefully, but without military action.¶ "I think it's safe to say that what Russia has done isn't just to stick [Putin's] thumb in the eye of Obama. It is to flout the core principles of the international community; the idea that there is a rules-based order and that we don't invade each other's countries," he said.¶ Seven things to know about Crimea¶ The Crimean Peninsula is rich in arable land and occupies a strategically important location on the Black Sea.¶ Crimea has a population of 2.3 million, 58 per cent of whom speak Russian and identify themselves as ethnic Russians.¶ The Soviet Union transferred authority over Crimea to Ukraine in 1954.¶ Ukraine retained control after the collapse of the USSR in a 1994 agreement brokered by the US, UK and France.¶ Russia's major naval base is located in Sevastopol and is the base for their Black Sea Fleet. Russia's lease on the base expires in 2042.¶ The lease states that Russian personnel may not remove military equipment or vehicles outside the base without permission from Ukraine.¶ The region was a stronghold for ousted president Viktor Yanukovych.¶ "Putin has crossed that line and I think Obama, in cooperation with leaders around the world from Australia, New Zealand, Japan to Europe, needs to take a stand."¶ Dr Kupchan believes if Russia continues to use military force there may be a military response but it is likely to come from NATO rather than the US.¶ "By that I mean a decision by the NATO alliance to toughen up border defences on NATO's eastern frontier, perhaps deploying troops in the Baltic republics or in Poland. Basically sending a message to the Russians: 'You want to play hardball? We're going to play hardball'," he said.¶ "That's obviously not something that any of us want to see because it means the remilitarisation of the relationship between the Western alliance and Russia. But, at least as of today, things are heading in that direction."¶ Dr Kupchan, who is professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the council on foreign relations, says the US will be careful to avoid making military threats.¶ "I think the United States will definitely not threaten military action because it doesn't want to deliberately escalate the situation in a military direction," he said.¶ Ukraine protests 'a serious blow to Putin'¶ Dr Kupchan says what's happened in Ukraine in the last two weeks has been a very serious blow to Russia and Vladimir Putin.¶ "Putin bet on (former Ukraine president Viktor) Yanukovych and now Yanukovych is a wanted criminal and the Ukrainian people have taken to the streets in the last couple of months. They said they do not want a future in Russia's fold," he said.¶ "It is a serious blow to Putin and now he's acting out in anger and in some ways as a wounded and vulnerable leader."¶ Dr Kupchan says it is too soon to tell what will happen to Ukraine but in his view Crimea has been lost.¶ "Maybe it will be reintegrated into Russia. But I think it's safe to say that the Crimean Peninsula is going to be under Russian control for a long time," he said.
The crisis in Ukraine is unlikely to spark a military confrontation between the US and Russia former national security adviser says Kupchan a Russian specialist says the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Russia are next to nil, Kupchan says the US will be careful to avoid making military threats. the United States will definitely not threaten military action because it doesn't want to deliberately escalate the situation in a military direction what's happened in Ukraine in the last two weeks has been a very serious blow to Putin the Crimean Peninsula is going to be under Russian control for a long time,