There are additional reasons that Japan is highly unlikely to consider a nuclear option. First, there is the financial factor. Japan lacks strategic depth, as its population is heavily concentrated in a few major cities along the coasts. Thus, the only credible deterrent it might consider would be one deployed at sea—nuclear submarines carrying nucleartipped ballistic missiles. This would be hugely expensive. It would also take many years to create such a force, during which time its security position would likely erode considerably—especially if it were to seek such a capability over Washington’s objections. Given Japan’s need for a credible conventional defense posture—and the rising costs of fielding advanced defensive systems—it makes far more sense for Japan to invest toward that end. A related objective, as discussed further below, should be to help strengthen the capacity of the Southeast Asian countries for maritime security. There is also a diplomatic factor. A Japanese decision to embark upon nuclear weapons development would no doubt deal a shattering blow to the nonproliferation regime and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would likely result in the emergence of additional threats to Japan. It would also lead immediately to the country’s political isolation. Among the many consequences of this would be the damaging effects on the country’s economy
additional reasons that Japan is highly unlikely to consider a nuclear option. First, there is the financial factor. Japan lacks strategic depth, as its population is heavily concentrated in a few major cities along the coasts. Thus, the only credible deterrent it might consider would be one deployed at sea—nuclear submarines carrying nucleartipped ballistic missiles. This would be hugely expensive. It would also take many years to create such a force, during which time its security position would likely erode considerably There is also a diplomatic factor. A Japanese decision to embark upon nuclear weapons development would no doubt deal a shattering blow to the nonproliferation regime and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would likely result in the emergence of additional threats to Japan. It would also lead immediately to the country’s political isolation. Among the many consequences of this would be the damaging effects on the country’s economy