Argument: Control over Catalan destiny would reduce tensions and may help prevent independence

For Spain by far the biggest reason for allowing a referendum is that it may well be the best way of keeping Catalonia within Spain over the long term. So long as Spain says it will not allow a referendum or give the Catalans control over their own destiny the movement for Catalan independence is likely to get stronger as it can focus on the denial of democratic rights – Spain is waving a red flag to the bull. Allow a referendum, particularly if it has to be accompanied by a long period of campaigning for reflection and Catalans will have to agonise whether it is in their own best interests, 1 decide whether they want to damage their economy by having large companies such as Planeta the world’s largest Spanish language publishing business pulling out, 2 sever extensive links with Spain, and risk their membership of the European Union which Spain would veto. 3 If Spain were to offer as an alternative a new constitutional settlement that solves many of the grievances the Catalans have at the moment they might find they really want to remain within Spain, 4 much as many scots would prefer devo-max.

1 Bloomberg editors, ‘To Keep Catalonia In, Spain Should Allow a Cote to Secede’, Bloomberg, 15 October 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-15/to-keep-catalonia-in-spain-should-allow-a-vote-to-secede.html

2 Charlemagne, ‘Hostage to Catalonia’, The Economist, 5th October 2012, http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2012/10/spanish-politics

3 Bollier, Sam, ‘Catalans press for secession from Spain’, Al Jazeera, 30 September 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/09/201292913514639254.html

4 Bloomberg editors, ‘To Keep Catalonia In, Spain Should Allow a Cote to Secede’, Bloomberg, 15 October 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-15/to-keep-catalonia-in-spain-should-allow-a-vote-to-secede.html

Candidate 1: "Catalans clearly want self determination

Every peoples has the right to self determination. This is enshrined in the UN Charter right at the start in Article 1 as a purpose of the United Nations “To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples” and is also in other major international agreements. 1 Large numbers of states have been recognised since this principle of self determination was recognised by the world in 1945 a great many of them states that are less natural states in terms of size, economy, ethnicity or geography so it would be wrong to deny a right exercised by so many others from the Catalans. It is clear that the Catalans wish to exercise this right to decide their own destiny democratically through a referendum. When polled by the Catalan Survey Institute 74.1% said they would be in favour of organising a referendum with 19.9% against, the remaining 6% were undecided. 2

1 The United Nations, ‘Charter of the United Nations’, 26 June 1945, Chapter 1, Article 1, http://www.un.org/en/documents/charter/chapter1.shtml

2 Coll, Gaspar Pericay, ‘74% of Catalan citizens are in favour of holding an independence referendum in Catalonia’, Catalan News Agency, 10 October 2012, http://www.catalannewsagency.com/news/politics/74-catalan-citizens-are-favour-holding-independence-referendum-catalonia"
Candidate 2: "Not getting your way in a democracy is not an excuse for turning to violence. Catalonia instead must attempt to persuade the other regions of Spain to allow a referendum or if it can’t then accept that the majority in Spain do not want Catalonian independence and respect their position. Violence will not help persuade the rest of Spain of its case; it did not for the Basques, and will not for Catalonia. So far the Catalan independence movement has recognised this with Lopez Tena the leader of the Catalan Solidarity for Independence party states “We would under no condition follow that [violent] path. That’s not how things are done in a democratic country.” 1

1 Primor, Adar, ‘Catalan leader predicts independence in about two years, and close friendship with Israel’, Haaretz, 4 October 2012, http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/catalan-leader-predicts-independence-in-about-two-years-and-close-friendship-with-israel.premium-1.468285"
Candidate 3: "It is far from clear whether self determination gives peoples the right to decide whether they should be independent. The Supreme Court of Canada has looked at this issue with reference to Quebec that has in the past argued for its right to self determination. The court argues “The recognized sources of international law establish that the right to self-determination of a people is normally fulfilled through internal self-determination -- a people's pursuit of its political, economic, social and cultural development within the framework of an existing state. A right to external self-determination (which in this case potentially takes the form of the assertion of a right to unilateral secession) arises in only the most extreme of cases and, even then, under carefully defined circumstances.” This is because such a right must fit in with the principle of territorial integrity of existing states. 1

1 ‘Reference re Secession of Quebec’, Supreme Court of Canada, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217 http://scc.lexum.org/decisia-scc-csc/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/1643/index.do Para 126/7"
Candidate 4: "If a referendum is not allowed violence may be the result

The worst case scenario is one in which the Spanish government continues to deny the Catalan people the ability to decide for themselves democratically and peacefully then it is possible that eventually the result will be a change from a peaceful movement to a violent one. Some outside observers see parallels with the break up of Yugoslavia where the solution has to be further decentralisation and the center accepting a democratic route – in Yugoslavia failure to do so ultimately lead to several wars. 1 2 For the moment there are only the slightest of hints that things may get more radical if denied Pujol the General secretary of the governing Catalan party says "There will be no way to avoid it. If we don't deliver it someone else will. More radical parties. But in a negotiation… it's not the best thing to reveal what you are going to do next" so there is the possibility some factions of the independence movement turning to violence as Eta did in the Basque region if denied the democratic route. 3

1 Stanic, Ana, ‘Catalunya and Spain: more than time for dialogue’, Open Democracy, 18 October 2012, http://www.opendemocracy.net/ana-stanic/catalunya-and-spain-more-than-time-for-dialogue

2 Basta, Karlo, ‘Reducing Catalonia’s autonomy as a reaction to the fiscal crisis would only provide more fuel for secession-minded nationalists’, London School of Economics and Political Science, European Politics and Policy, 26 September 2012, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/09/26/catalonia-autonomy-karlo-basta/

3 Mason, Paul, ‘Catalan leaders seek independence vote, legal or not’, BBC News, 5 October 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-19847252"
Candidate 5: "This would be a very risky course to take; currently there is 51% support for independence and that could as well go up as down when given the opportunity. With both the Spanish and Catalan economies in crisis it is likely that such a referendum would only be bolstered by anger at the government due to the state of the economy. This might therefore be an option for Spain at some point in the future when the economy is back on its feet and so less of an issue but at the moment it would be waving goodbye to Spain as we know it."
Candidate 6: "It is not up to the Spanish state to choose when the Catalans should be able to have a referendum on independence. A time of crisis is as good as any; economic grievances are one of the main drivers in the desire for independence so it should come as no surprise that there is increase desire for a referendum when there is just such a crisis. Spain has already shown that it considers that there never has been and never will be a right time for a divorce. Even in the good times attempts to get an autonomy statute were met by challenges in the constitutional court which after years of deliberation watered down the agreement which had already been watered down by the Spanish Parliament. 1 More recently it was in large part the refusal of the Spanish Prime Minister to consider a request to consider Catalonia the same way as the Basques and Navarra in terms of finances that triggered the current crisis. 2

1 Pericay, Gaspar, ‘The Spanish Constitutional Court shortens the current Catalan Statute of Autonomy’, Catalan News Agency, 28 June 2010, http://www.catalannewsagency.com/news/politics/the-spanish-constitutional-court-shortens-the-current-catalan-statute-of-autonom

2 Guibernau, Montserrat, ‘Calls for independence in Catalonia are part of an evolution of Spain’s democracy that the country’s constitution may have to come to accommodate.’, London School of Economics and Political Science, European Politics and Policy, 8 October 2012, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/10/08/catalonia-independence-spain-constitution/"
Candidate 7: "Section 2 of the constitution continues “it recognizes and guarantees the right to self-government of the nationalities and regions of which it is composed and the solidarity among them all.” 1 However it is not the constitution that is the problem blocking a referendum; rather it is the Spanish parliament. The government and parliament clearly could ask the King to allow a referendum on Catalan independence if it so wished. It should do so in order to prevent any more existential challenges to the constitution; constitutions have to be flexible if they are to survive the government is therefore wrong to treat it as a static unchanging document and justification for ruling out a referendum for Catalan independence. 2

1 Cortes Generales, Spanish Constitution, 27 December 1978, http://www.senado.es/constitu_i/indices/consti_ing.pdf Section 2

2 Guibernau, Montserrat, ‘Calls for independence in Catalonia are part of an evolution of Spain’s democracy that the country’s constitution may have to come to accommodate.’, London School of Economics and Political Science, European Politics and Policy, 8 October 2012, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/10/08/catalonia-independence-spain-constitution/"
Candidate 8: "The middle of a crisis is not the right time for divorce

Both Catalonia and Spain are in the middle of an economic crisis. Spain is considering a bail out by the European central bank and the prospect of losing 20% of its economy and the uncertainty while it happens would have an immense impact on the rest of the economy at a time when Spain already has unemployment of 23%. On the other side Catalonia’s regional government needs bailing out by Spain’s central government; it is seeking 5 billion Euros from a bailout fund set up by the Spanish government. Therefore while Catalonia may be the richest part of the Spanish economy but its government is missing its deficit targets. 1 It is therefore exactly the wrong time for Catalonia to be rocking the boat with a referendum on independence and the uncertainty this creates. Catalonia needs the Spanish government for its own bailout and the Spanish government needs stability if it is to avoid a bail out from the European Union and the conditions that are likely to come with such action.

1 Tremlett, Giles, and Traynor, Ian, ‘Catalonia's €5bn plea brings Spanish bailout nearer”, The Guardian, 28 August 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/28/catalonias-plea-brings-spanish-bailout-nearer"
Candidate 9: "Catalonia will hold its own referendum regardless of Spain’s position

Catalonia is likely to go its own way and decide it should make its own decisions regardless of the rest of Spain’s views. Artur Mas Catalonia’s President says "If we can go ahead with a referendum because the government authorises it, it's better. If not, we should do it anyway". 1 So regardless of the Spanish position in his next four year term he will hold a referendum asking “Do you want Catalonia to become a new state within the European Union?” If Spain then does not back down about allowing this then there may well be a constitutional crisis. So far the Catalan option is simply to “internationalise the conflict we will have to go to Brussels to explain that they don't even let us consult with the people”. 2

Ultimately despite being within Spain so long as support for independence remains strong the Catalans probably have more cards to play; they provide more in taxes than they receive so could cut Madrid off, or in the final play they could unilaterally secede leaving Spain with the unpalatable option of either negotiating to get Catalonia back in, accepting, or invading.

1 Bollier, Sam, ‘Catalans press for secession from Spain’, Al Jazeera, 30 September 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/09/201292913514639254.html

2 Tremlett, Giles, ‘Catalonia leader threatens to draw EU into independence row with Spain’, guardian.co.uk, 15 October 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/15/catalonia-leader-threat-independence-eu-spain"
Candidate 10: "Catalan independence would lead to further break up of the Spanish state

The issue of Catalan independence does not just affect Catalonia but the whole of Spain. All the regions of Spain have strong regional identities and Catalan is merely most widely spoken regional language with the both the Basque region and Galicia in particular having their own languages. Therefore a Catalan bid for independence might prompt other regions to make a bid for independence too. Moreover Catalan is spoken in regions outside Catalonia so these regions could potentially decide they are better off with Catalonia than Spain. 1

The basques in particular, who have already turned to the political path from that of violent separatism, are likely to take inspiration to work towards peaceful independence if the Catalans succeed and are allowed a referendum. 2 If Catalonia is allowed to secede then why should the Basque region be any different?

1 McCormick, Mark, ‘The languages of Spain – interactive’, guardian.co.uk, 19 January 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/jan/19/spain-languages-map-interactive

2 Zabalo, Julen, ‘Basque nationalists are taking inspiration from Scotland and Northern Ireland by using politics as a vehicle for independence’, London School of Economics and Political Science, European Politics and Policy, 25 September 2012, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/09/25/basque-nationalism-julen-zabalo/"
Candidate 11: "Such a decision by the Catalan government would clearly be against the Spanish Constitution and therefore illegal. The constitution makes it “the Army’s mission is to guarantee the sovereignty and independence of Spain, to defend its territorial integrity and the constitutional set up” so such a move would invite a military response. Some members of the ruling PP party have already stated that the Guardia Civil should take over the Mossos (Catalan police). 1 There are also members of the army who would be willing to take such action, "Catalan independence? Over my dead body and that of many soldiers" says Colonel Francisco Aleman who also compared the crisis to the start of the Spanish Civil war in 1936. 2

1 Guibernau, Montserrat, ‘Calls for independence in Catalonia are part of an evolution of Spain’s democracy that the country’s constitution may have to come to accommodate.’, London School of Economics and Political Science, European Politics and Policy, 8 October 2012, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/10/08/catalonia-independence-spain-constitution/

2 Mason, Paul, ‘Catalan leaders seek independence vote, legal or not’, BBC News, 5 October 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-19847252"
Candidate 12: "For the most part this is simply being alarmists. However if other Spanish regions do wish to go their own way then all the arguments for why Catalonia should be allowed its own choice apply to them as well."
Candidate 13: "Spain is one indivisible nation

The Spanish constitution does not allow the holding of referendums on independence by Spanish regions. Spain is a single ‘demos’ made up of all the regions together rather than being separate and simply brought together under one banner. The Constitution says it “is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation, the common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards”. 1

Moreover while referendums may be allowed for “political decisions of special importance” “The referendum shall be called by the King on the President of the Government's

proposal after previous authorization by the Congress.” 2 So the calling of one is first up to the national government to decide one is needed and then requires the approval of the national parliament. In case that was not clear enough it is reiterated in section 149 on the role of the State and Regions “The State shall have exclusive competence over the following matters: Authorization of popular consultations through the holding of referendums.” 3

1 Cortes Generales, Spanish Constitution, 27 December 1978, http://www.senado.es/constitu_i/indices/consti_ing.pdf Section 2

2 Ibid, Section 92

3 Ibid, section 149"

This would be a very risky course to take; currently there is 51% support for independence and that could as well go up as down when given the opportunity. With both the Spanish and Catalan economies in crisis it is likely that such a referendum would only be bolstered by anger at the government due to the state of the economy. This might therefore be an option for Spain at some point in the future when the economy is back on its feet and so less of an issue but at the moment it would be waving goodbye to Spain as we know it.
