Argument: Poverty means more crime

Despite many problems that Africa has to face, one of the biggest is its extreme poverty. Currently more than 48.5% of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa lives on less than 1.25 dollars a day (1). As a result of this poverty people’s security is being threatened on two main levels.

On the first level of analysis, poverty can lead to crime. Poverty can create desperation to provide for family or yourself. As poverty is widespread in Africa, there are many people who are willing to steal, threaten, abduct or kill someone, in order to have something to eat. At 17.4 per 100,000 citizens, more than double the world average, Africa has the highest homicide rate among all regions of the world.(2) The other side of this is that a poor state can’t provide the level of policing that richer states can, a people in poverty usually results in a poor government. This in turn means that the police force is small, badly trained and underfunded so not fit for preventing crime.

On the second level of analysis, desperate people are much easier to manipulate. This makes them easy targets for military groups in Africa who are searching for members to fight for their causes. It is not coincidental that we have so many militias and juntas in Africa, such as Somali Pirates, AQAP, AQIM, Al-Shabab, Touareg( Mali), Boko Haram(Nigeria), M23 and dozens of others. The militias offer those in poverty what they need most, food, shelter, and protection in return for their “services”. Poverty provides an additional benefit for these groups due to the stark difference between potential reward, such as from piracy or winning control of mines, and a normal income. As with the drugs trade the lure of the fast buck can be used to encourage risk-taking.

In conclusion, poverty both enables crime and encourages militia groups.

(1) The World Bank, ‘Poverty’, data.worldbank.org, 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/topic/poverty

(2) Me, Angela, et al., ‘2011 Global Study on Homicide trends, contexts, data’, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes, 2011, http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/Homicide/Globa_study_on_homicide_2011_web.pdf

Candidate 1: "Armed forces do not require large amounts of funding to be well disciplined forces that are subordinate to civilian governance. This was shown by many communist nations; Vietnam’s army was immense, beat both the French and Americans and was firmly under party control. The importance of armed forces for security is universally recognised so foreign powers will help train armed forces to ensure these qualities. Thus for example as part of efforts to bring peace to Sierra Leone Britain provided training for the Sierra Leone Armed Forces helping bring stability to the country and allowing the Sierra Leonean army to engage in peace keeping missions elsewhere in Africa.(1)

(1) Clapson, Joe, ‘Sierra Leonean army comes of age under British direction’, Ministry of Defence, 6 April 2011, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sierra-leonean-army-comes-of-age-under-british-direction"
Candidate 2: "Poverty may have something to do with countries becoming dictatorships but little. That it is about the efficiency of government is much more credible, this is partially why India, with a large native civil service at independence is one of the exceptions. In practice the reason here is that these nations were subject to being downtrodden through colonialism. There was little opportunity provided to create native institutions so any cobbled together rapidly at independence collapsed.

Many of the countries that were poor at independence are still poor now, yet the story of Africa is no longer one of constant violent dictatorship but increasingly one of stable democracies with reasonably fair elections. The number of democracies in Africa has increased from three in 1989 to 24 in 2008.(1) This transition then benefits the economy. An analysis by The Economist finds that over the ten years to 2010, six of the world's ten fastest-growing economies were in sub-Saharan Africa.(2)

The Arab Spring meanwhile demonstrates that the population in poor countries can be organised enough to oust authoritarian leaders through large scale protest. Since they are the ones who suffer from corruption there is no inherent reason why poorer peoples should be more likely to submit to a dictatorship.

(1) Freedom House, ‘Electoral Democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa’, African Election Database, accessed 22 November 2013, http://africanelections.tripod.com/electoral_democracies.html

(2) Graphic detail, ‘Africa's impressive growth’, The Economist, 6 January 2011, http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/daily_chart"
Candidate 3: "Does poverty cause crime, or does crime cause poverty? Poverty does not in all cases create crime. Bhutan is a poor country but the state department reports “There is relatively little crime” (1). When there is crime skilled people are more likely to emigrate and trust relationships are destroyed making businesses risk averse. At the same time outside businesses won’t invest in the country and neither will individuals because they fear they won’t get their money back. Finally crime almost invariably means corruption which undermines state institutions, trust in the state and ultimately democracy (2). Crime therefore leads to poverty more than the other way around.

Neither does poverty have much to do with armed anti-government movements, terrorists or militia. Terrorism is an inherently a political struggle. Almost every major terrorist organization that exists has emerged from a conflict revolving around the subject of sovereignty and defending of their culture. Al Qaeda was created after the soviet invasion of Afghanistan and ETA fights for the independence of the Basque county so groups in Africa are ethically or religiously based. The needs and desires of the poorest are much more short-sighted, such as having enough to eat and somewhere to sleep. They would much rather stability. A 2007 study by economist Alan B. Krueger found that terrorists were less likely to come from an impoverished background (28% vs. 33%) and more likely to have at least a high-school education (47% vs. 38%). Another analysis found only 16% of Palestinian terrorists came from impoverished families, vs. 30% of male Palestinians, and over 60% had gone beyond high school, vs. 15% of the populace.(3)

Moreover a rebellion, even if it involves potential financial gain, is not a good long term prospect. In the long term the government tends to win. For example with FARC in Columbia a security build-up over the past decade has reduced the rebels from 18,000 fighters at their peak to about 10,000 today (4) The idea of fighting a war against an army which is bigger, better funded and better equipped isn’t exactly thrilling.

(1) U.S. Department of State, ‘Bhutan’, travel.state.gov, 2013, http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1068.html

(2) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Crime and Development in Africa’, gsdrc, 2005, http://www.gsdrc.org/go/display/document/legacyid/1592

(3) Levitt, Steven D.; Dubner, Stephen J. , Superfreakonomics: global cooling, patriotic prostitutes, and why suicide bombers should buy life insurance, (William Morrow 2009)

(4) “To the edge and back”, The Economist, 31 August 2013, http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21584384-hiccup-serves-confirm-government-and-farc-are-making-progress-edge-and"
Candidate 4: "Society cant function when the population is divided

Successful nations are those with a strong unified sense of purpose. They are states where it is allegiance to the state which is put first. Having different identities which are put first undermines the state. This is exactly what strong religious and ethnic identities do. If these sub state identities are put before the national identity then ethnic groups are likely to “other” anyone who is not a part of their group. If they do not consider themselves as being a part of the same polity there is little reason to cooperate, to pay taxes,

It is the failure to build a unifying framework and these conflicts of identity that split nations apart not poverty. The Rwandan genocide did not happen because Rwanda is poor but because it is split between two groups who, at least for that horrific period, looked at themselves as Hutus or Tutsi’s first and Rwandans second. The rebels in Syria show how strong such divisions can be as rebels fight each other as well as Assad’s regime.(1) In Ivory Coast a country that had previously been considered stable burst into civil war in 2011 after elections that went along ethnic lines.(2)

(1) Dettmer, Jamie, “Syrian Rebel Groups Fight Among Themselves”, Voice of America, 19 September 2013 http://www.voanews.com/content/syria-rebels/1753137.html

(2) “African viewpoint: Blood and borders” BBC News, 1 February 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12336269"
Candidate 5: "Ethno-religious divides are a bigger security threat

Poverty is clearly an immense problem for Africa but it is not primarily a security problem. There are parts of the globe such as South Asia and parts of South East Asia that have comparable poverty but little conflict and violence. Moreover not every African country is plagued with conflict. We therefore must look elsewhere for why Africa has high levels of conflict. Religious and Ethnic divisions are a much more direct security threat and cause for conflicts.

To start with, it is extremely easy to blame people of other ethnicity or religion of your own problems. This occurs throughout the world, no matter if we are talking about immigrants coming into the EU and US, about the Kurdish population in Turkey or about Israel and Palestine. Africa has 3315 ethnic groups, a huge number (1). Unlike Europe these have not been formed into cohesive nations with colonial borders often arbitrarily cutting through ethnic groups. A conflict is 25 percent longer and has a has a higher casualty rate when an ethnicity is divided by a national border. Examples of divided (and conflicted) groups are the Maasai of Kenya and Tanzania, and the Anyi of Ghana and the Ivory Coast. (2)

Division also occurs between religions. Samuel P Huntington wrote a famous book ‘The Clash of Civilisations’ that highlights that conflict is often created between religions. In Africa this means conflict in a swathe of northern Africa where Islam and Christianity meet. For example, the Muslim terrorist organization called Boko Haram, which has a lot of support in Nigeria, is engaged in a massive against Christians which has been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of non-Muslims.(2)

(1) Wentzel, Dr. John, ‘Who are the developing world’, johnwentzel.com, 28 February 2013, http://johnwentzel.com/2013/02/28/who-are-the-developing-world/

(2) Gilman, Azure, ‘The Violent Legacy of Africa’s Arbitrary Borders’, Freakonomics, 12 January 2011, http://freakonomics.com/2011/12/01/the-violent-legacy-of-africas-arbitrary-borders/

(3) Stark, William, “Boko Haram's Anti-Christian Violence Continues in Northern Nigeria”, Religion Today, 13 September 2013, http://www.religiontoday.com/news/boko-haram-anti-christian-violence-continues-nigeria.html"
Candidate 6: "Identity issues are very difficult to solve

Issues of identity are much more difficult to solve than issues of poverty. Poverty is primarily an issue of economics and can be solved in numerous ways; through aid, development projects, greater exploitation of natural resources, and through policies to encourage economic development. However none of this is likely to happen if there is ethnic conflict.

Where the problem is one of identity there is no fast solution. Ethnicity remains the same throughout someone’s life. Religion is only rarely changed. Customs and traditions only slowly evolve. No matter how hard government tries, these artificial barriers cannot be changed or erased easily. The only solution then is to attempt to work around the problem by not eliminating identities but showing commonalities, itself a slow process.

Spain is an example of how a country can escape poverty but not identity. From the 1980’s Spain enjoyed an economic miracle pulling the country up to being a developed nation. And again after the economic crash changes in policies have managed to halt decline and even move Spain towards recovery.(1) Yet despite a state that has constantly encouraged integration the regions of Spain are more determined than ever to get a chance to decide their own future. Cataluña and the Basque Country in particular want independence.(2)

(1) Benoit, Angeline, “Spain Exits Two-Year Recession as Rajoy Seeks Recovery”, Bloomberg, 30 October 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/spain-exits-two-year-recession-as-rajoy-seeks-lasting-recovery.html

(2) “Nothing to lose but their chains”, The Economist, 14 September 2013, http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21586323-pressure-referendum-keeps-growing-nothing-lose-their-chains"

Does poverty cause crime, or does crime cause poverty? Poverty does not in all cases create crime. Bhutan is a poor country but the state department reports “There is relatively little crime” (1). When there is crime skilled people are more likely to emigrate and trust relationships are destroyed making businesses risk averse. At the same time outside businesses won’t invest in the country and neither will individuals because they fear they won’t get their money back. Finally crime almost invariably means corruption which undermines state institutions, trust in the state and ultimately democracy (2). Crime therefore leads to poverty more than the other way around.

Neither does poverty have much to do with armed anti-government movements, terrorists or militia. Terrorism is an inherently a political struggle. Almost every major terrorist organization that exists has emerged from a conflict revolving around the subject of sovereignty and defending of their culture. Al Qaeda was created after the soviet invasion of Afghanistan and ETA fights for the independence of the Basque county so groups in Africa are ethically or religiously based. The needs and desires of the poorest are much more short-sighted, such as having enough to eat and somewhere to sleep. They would much rather stability. A 2007 study by economist Alan B. Krueger found that terrorists were less likely to come from an impoverished background (28% vs. 33%) and more likely to have at least a high-school education (47% vs. 38%). Another analysis found only 16% of Palestinian terrorists came from impoverished families, vs. 30% of male Palestinians, and over 60% had gone beyond high school, vs. 15% of the populace.(3)

Moreover a rebellion, even if it involves potential financial gain, is not a good long term prospect. In the long term the government tends to win. For example with FARC in Columbia a security build-up over the past decade has reduced the rebels from 18,000 fighters at their peak to about 10,000 today (4) The idea of fighting a war against an army which is bigger, better funded and better equipped isn’t exactly thrilling.

(1) U.S. Department of State, ‘Bhutan’, travel.state.gov, 2013, http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1068.html

(2) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Crime and Development in Africa’, gsdrc, 2005, http://www.gsdrc.org/go/display/document/legacyid/1592

(3) Levitt, Steven D.; Dubner, Stephen J. , Superfreakonomics: global cooling, patriotic prostitutes, and why suicide bombers should buy life insurance, (William Morrow 2009)

(4) “To the edge and back”, The Economist, 31 August 2013, http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21584384-hiccup-serves-confirm-government-and-farc-are-making-progress-edge-and
