Graham Allison's April 12 article, “How America and China Could Stumble to War,” explores how misperceptions and bureaucratic dysfunction could accelerate a militarized crisis involving the United States and China into an unwanted war. However, the article fails to persuade because it neglects the key political and geostrategic conditions that make war plausible in the first place. Without those conditions in place, the risk that a crisis could accidentally escalate into war becomes far lower. The U.S.-China relationship today may be trending towards greater tension, but the relative stability and overall low level of hostility make the prospect of an accidental escalation to war extremely unlikely.
Allison explores how misperceptions and dysfunction could accelerate crisis into war the article neglects key political and geostrategic conditions Without conditions in place risk that a crisis could accidentally escalate becomes far lower U.S.-China relations may trend to tension, but the relative stability and overall low level of hostility make accidental war extremely unlikely