Argument: His removal provides stability and security not only for Iraq but for the Middle East as a region

The Middle East is a tinder box at the best of times. Having an unpredictable megalomaniac sitting in the middle of it was dangerous, not only for Iraqis but for other peoples in the region. Hussain was a danger to the Middle East as he had proved many times, through his invasion of Iran [i] which was followed only a couple of years later in 1990 by an invasion of Kuwait which sparked the Gulf War [ii] and his use of scud missiles on Israel which was otherwise uninvolved in the conflict. [iii]

It was better to remove this threat than risk being drawn into a multi-player conflict when he next attacked a neighbor.

[i] Pipes, Daniel, ‘A Border Adrift: Origins of the Iraq-Iran War’, The Iraq-Iran War: Old Conflict, New Weapons, 1983

[ii] BBC on this day, ‘1990: Iraq invades Kuwait’.

[iii] CBC Digital Archives, ‘Scud vs. Patriot missiles’, 19 January 1991

Candidate 1: "The sands of Iraq are as soaked in blood as they are in oil. For once the Iraqis have actually got something out of their mineral wealth, which has otherwise served as a curse for over a century.

There has been a functioning civilization around the Tigis-Euphrates Valleys for at least ten thousand years it was only with the discovery of oil and the importation of the Industrial Age that this began to function as a curse.

For once their oil wealth has worked to their advantage, leading to the removal of a dictator rather than the imposition of one. As the troops step back it seems likely that Iraq has the opportunity to become that rarest of things; a Middle Eastern, oil producing state that is democratic and stable. As a result they can negotiate with oil consuming nations on an even footing."
Candidate 2: "Iraq now has a professionally trained army and police force accountable to a democratically elected government and, through them, to the people.

Unusually among Arab nations the security forces should now act as upholders of the law rather than the personal armies of local and national strong men used to settle grudges and silence dissent.

The torture chambers are closed and the courts are functioning. There is, of course, work still to be done in terms of creating jobs but at least those jobs will go to people on the basis of ability rather than political loyalty.

Iraq still faces problems but is better equipped to deal with them than it has been in a century and more."
Candidate 3: "There is little evidence that the Ba’ath Party would have tolerated a handover of power to Saddam’s sons. Even in North Korea, the issue of Kim Il Sung’s succession became fraught, and hotly contested amongst the North Korean political elite.. However, the issue of who should run Iraq was and should remain a matter for the Iraqi people. The current puppet regime has little power outside Baghdad and, frankly, not that much inside, this lack of central control is as damaging as too much would be as is shown by the failure of Somalia and resulting civil war and piratical attacks. [i]

In many ways the war has encouraged the world’s rogue states to pursue nuclear weapons as, in an era of ‘pre-emptive defense, they are the only surety against invasion and overthrow [ii] . Iran is continuing to persue nuclear weapons even without the threat of Iraq on its borders, instead it is worried about Israel and the United States. One more threatening state would therefore have made little difference. [iii]

If the aim of the war was to insure against future threats then leaving a nation bitter and resentful, where barely a family has not lost someone to the conflict, a radicalized younger generation, emboldened militant clerics and a weak central government seems a very strange way to go about doing it. The West will almost certainly have to return to Iraq within a generation, if not a decade.

[i] Blair, David, ‘Somalia: Analysis of a failed state’, The Telegraph, 18 November 2008

[ii] Francis Fukuyama. “Iraq May Be Stable, But The War Was Still A Mistake”. Wall Street Journal. 15 August 2008.

[iii] BBC News, ‘Q&amp;A: Iran nuclear issue’, 23 January 2012"
Candidate 4: "By empowering the Shi’a majority, the outcome of the war has provided an obvious link to Iran, an equally obvious threat to Israel and has implication for nations “from Lebanon to Pakistan. [i] ”

The weakness of this government represents a far greater threat to security and regional stability than any dictator, however bloodthirsty. Iraq looks set to join the other lawless regions of Asia such as the Pashtun Valley as an obvious place for terrorists and Criminals to base themselves.

[i] Vali Nasr. “Regional Implications of Shi’a Revival in Iraq”. The Washington Quarterly • 27:3 pp. 7–24. The Centre for International and Strategic Studies and the Massachusetts Institute for Technology. Summer 2004."
Candidate 5: "In the unlikely event that something resembling a democratic government survives in Iraq after the international troops leave then that would, of course, be welcome.

However, some context is required to establish whether the price was worth paying. Over a trillion dollars, 4,000 American dead, tens of thousands of Iraqis, US reputation destroyed in the region to establish a puppet government whose only real chance of survival is a continued American presence in the country.

The alternatives are all unpleasant – a theocratic regime allied to a nuclear Iran, a simple meltdown of the state or the emergence of a new strongman along the lines of Saddam's regime.

Assuming the US can't sign up in perpetuity then one of these outcomes seems likely and those lives and resources will have been squandered for no reason whatsoever [i] .

[i] Francis Fukuyama. “Iraq May Be Stable, But The War Was Still A Mistake”. Wall Street Journal. 15 August 2008."

By empowering the Shi’a majority, the outcome of the war has provided an obvious link to Iran, an equally obvious threat to Israel and has implication for nations “from Lebanon to Pakistan. [i] ”

The weakness of this government represents a far greater threat to security and regional stability than any dictator, however bloodthirsty. Iraq looks set to join the other lawless regions of Asia such as the Pashtun Valley as an obvious place for terrorists and Criminals to base themselves.

[i] Vali Nasr. “Regional Implications of Shi’a Revival in Iraq”. The Washington Quarterly • 27:3 pp. 7–24. The Centre for International and Strategic Studies and the Massachusetts Institute for Technology. Summer 2004.
