Summary China’s nuclear force is much smaller and far less capable than the nuclear force of the United States. China’s current nuclear weapons modernization program will not change that situation, even if the United States does nothing. China has been improving the quality and increasing the quantity of its nuclear forces since its first test of a nuclear-armed missile in 1966. The pace of these improvements has been steady but slow, especially when compared with the growth of China’s economy. After a half-century of effort, China’s nuclear arsenal remains smaller than the US nuclear arsenal was in 1950 (Kristensen and Norris 2013). Creating a nuclear force requires three essential capabilities: 1. The capability to produce the fissile materials highly enriched uranium and plutonium. 2. The capability to use those materials to make warheads that are tested for reliable use as a weapon. 3. The capability to deliver these warheads to targets using missiles, airplanes or other vehicles. Chinese capabilities in all three essential areas of nuclear weapons production lag well behind the capabilities of the United States: 1. China produced far less highly enriched uranium and plutonium than the United States. 2. China conducted far fewer nuclear weapons tests than the United States and consequently produced fewer nuclear warhead designs. 3. China has far fewer vehicles to deliver its nuclear warheads. China’s ongoing modernization program currently does not include efforts to produce more fissile materials or test new nuclear warhead designs. The only nuclear weapons-related capability China continues to improve is its delivery vehicles. China does not currently deploy nuclear weapons on submarines or on aircraft. China’s nuclear capability is concentrated in ground-based nuclear-capable missiles that are far fewer in number, and demonstrably less capable, than their US counterparts. China’s nuclear modernization program may eventually include plans to deploy a small number of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and air-launched cruise missiles, but its primary focus appears to be making incremental improvements to the quality and quantity of China’s ground-based ballistic missiles. Unless the United States dramatically reduced the size of its nuclear arsenal, the limitations of China’s current nuclear weapons modernization program guarantee an overwhelming US superiority in number and capability of nuclear forces. The most effective means to allay US and allied concerns about the future size and capability of China’s nuclear force are to: • Prevent China from producing more of the fissile materials needed to make nuclear warheads. • Prevent China from testing new nuclear warhead designs. Both can be done using arms control agreements.
China’s nuclear force is much smaller and far less capable than the nuclear force of the United States. China’s current nuclear weapons modernization program will not change that situation, even if the United States does nothing pace of these improvements has been slow After a half-century of effort, China’s nuclear arsenal remains smaller than the US nuclear arsenal was in 1950 Creating a nuclear force requires 1. The capability to produce the fissile materials highly enriched uranium and plutonium. 2. The capability to use those materials to make warheads that are tested for reliable use as a weapon. 3. The capability to deliver these warheads to targets using missiles, airplanes or other vehicles. Chinese capabilities in all three essential areas of nuclear weapons production lag well behind China produced far less highly enriched uranium and plutonium China conducted far fewer nuclear weapons tests and produced fewer nuclear warhead designs China has far fewer vehicles to deliver its nuclear warheads modernization program currently does not include efforts to produce more fissile materials or test new nuclear warhead designs China does not currently deploy nuclear weapons on submarines or on aircraft ground-based missiles are far fewer in number, and demonstrably less capable, than their US counterparts. modernization program focus appears to be making incremental improvements to the quality and quantity of China’s ground-based ballistic missiles