Argument: The Scottish relationship with the EU is likely to change after independence.

The UK's various opt outs exist because of the strong negotiating position that the whole of the UK had at the time of the signing of the various relevant treaties. Had Scotland been independent then it would not have been in the same position. It is also argued that if Scotland wants to join the EU then it implicitly wants to join the EU as it is now and could retain exceptional status only in the very short term. [1] The change in relationship would probably change the Scottish attitude to the EU, although it is hard to say whether this would be automatically in a negative way. The implication of Jose Manuel Barroso's comments quoted earlier is that Scotland will be unlikely to retain the UK's opt outs from certain areas of EU policy. Most obviously it is likely that if joining as a new state Scotland may have no choice but to join the Euro at least in the long term when it meets the convergence requirements. [2] Several polls show Scots less likely to vote for independence if Scotland would then have to join the Euro. [3] The other main sticking point would be Schengen, it has been suggested that Scotland would have to join the EU's free travel zone which the UK is not currently a member of and the main consequence of this would be border controls between Scotland and England. [4] Were Scotland to seek to avoid joining the Euro and Schengen then it would prolong the application process meaning that Scotland would be unlikely to be ready to join the EU upon independence. This point was made by the ambassador of the EU's newest member Croatia [quote=Ambassador Ivan Grdesic] if you decide to opt out on many things, you are not ready actually... [/quote] so warning that attempts to opt out of the Euro and Schengen would prolong negotiations. [5]

[1] Engel, Arno, and Parkes, Roderick, ‘Accommodating an independent Scotland: how a British-style constitution for the EU could secure Scotland’s future’, European Policy Centre, 24 October 2012, http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_3017_scotland_s_future.pdf pp.6-7.

[2] Thorp, Arabella, and Thompson, Gavin, ‘Scotland, independence and the EU – Commons Library Standard Note’, parliament.uk, 13 July 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06110

[3] What Scotland Thinks, ‘If an independent Scotland had to join the Euro, how would this effect your vote in a Scottish independence referendum?’, January 2013, http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-scotland-had-to-join-the-euro-how-would-this-effect-your-vote-in-a-scottish http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/adopting-euro-after-scotland-joing-eu-will-make-you

[4] Barnes, Eddie, ‘Scottish independence: EU may force border terms’, The Scotsman, http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-eu-may-force-border-terms-1-3165731

[5] BBC News, ‘Scottish independence: Warning over EU membership plan’, 3 November 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24794438

Candidate 1: "The SNP argues that the transition from being a constituent part of the UK inside the EU and being an independent state within the EU would be seamless. [1] While 'the Scottish government does not take the process of EU membership for granted' they hope to notify the EU of their intent to join the EU before the referendum and then use the period between a yes vote and independence to negotiate their accession. [2] They would have 18 months to sort out the transition between the referendum on independence on 21 September 2014 and independence in March 2016. It should be remembered that an independent Scotland should already meet all the criteria for membership as a result of having already been a member so should be able to go through membership negotiations quickly.

[1] The Scotsman, ‘Scottish independence: Hague EU claims criticised’, 31 October 2013, http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-hague-eu-claims-criticised-1-3168121

[2] Sturgeon, Nicola, ‘Scotland’s Relationship with Europe’, The Scottish Government, 26 February 2013, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/scot-europe-sturgon-26022013 §42-5."
Candidate 2: "The Scottish Government claims that an independent Scotland would be able to join the EU with all the UK's various opt outs intact. Scotland indeed could not be forced to join the Euro because in order to do so it would have to demonstrate currency convergence for at least two years which the newly independent state obviously would not be in a position to do. [1] Therefore if Scotland retained UK opt outs there would be only a positive change in relationship with Scotland receiving greater representation in EU institutions through having its own seat in the Council of Ministers, possibly its own Commissioner, and also a reallocation of European Parliamentary constituencies that would increase its representation there (and paradoxically increase rUK representation as well). [2]

[1] Noon, Stephen, ‘Euro membership’, 10 November 2011, http://stephennoon.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/euro-membership.html

[2] Engel, Arno, and Parkes, Roderick, ‘Accommodating an independent Scotland: how a British-style constitution for the EU could secure Scotland’s future’, European Policy Centre, 24 October 2012, http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_3017_scotland_s_future.pdf p.7"
Candidate 3: "Scotland has different interests to rUK

States are often seen as having one single unitary interest, however this is not the case the interests of different regions can be very different. It should therefore not be surprising that Scotland and rUK have different interests with relation to the EU. For example on climate change Scotland has the greatest potential for the generation of renewable energy in Europe with 25% of Europe’s tidal potential and 10% of wave potential [1] yet the UK is in favour of scrapping European targets for the generation of renewable energy. [2] UK ministers have also been accused of “working against Scotland” on agriculture being willing to accept reductions in farm support meaning that Scotland receives the lowest level in Europe. [3] Scotland’s own interests would therefore be better represented by having its own government at the negotiating table than a UK government.

[1] ‘Energy in Scotland: Get the facts’, The Scottish Government, 10 July 2013, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Facts

[2] Harvey, Fiona, ‘Britain resists EU bid to set new target on renewable energy’, The Observer, 25 May 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/may/25/uk-blocks-eu-target-renewable-energy

[3] McLaughlin, Mark, ‘SNP Conference: UK ministers ‘working against Scotland’’, The Independent, 19 October 2013, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snpconference-uk-ministers-working-againstscotland-8891458.html"
Candidate 4: "Polls consistently point to a vote to leave the EU in a prospective referendum. [1] Whether this actually happens is a moot point, such a referendum would still bring about instability in the relationship with the European Union. Scotland if independent could avoid this turbulence. At the same time a renegotiation does not mean that Scotland’s interests would be safeguarded as a British Prime Minister would be negotiating with an eye to winning any referendum. The result is that such renegotiations would likely favour English interests over Scottish ones as it is English votes the Prime Minister would need to win over.

[1] UKPollingReport, ‘YouGov/Sunday Times – Con 29, Lab 40, LD 9, UKIP 14’, 19 May 2013, http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7473 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7463 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7435 and others on the same site."
Candidate 5: "Scotland is more pro-EU than the rest of the UK

According to a February 2013 Ipsos-mori poll Scots want an EU referendum but 53% would vote to stay in the EU and only 34% would vote to leave. Indeed if Scotland became independent those who wanted it to be in the EU rose to 61% and the number who wanted out fell to 33%. [1] In England 48% would vote to leave (as of November 2012) and 44% would vote to stay in. [2] The UK Independence Party whose principal policy platform is a desire to leave the EU has performed considerably worse in Scotland than in England. In the 2010 general election UKIP received 3.1% of the vote [3] whereas in the Scottish election the next year they only received 0.9% of the vote. [4] Similarly in the 2009 European Parliament elections UKIP came second nationally receiving almost 2.5 million votes, 16.5% [5] of all votes cast but in Scotland it came 6th, beaten by all four main parties and the Greens receiving only 5.2% of the vote. [6] Scots clearly believe their interests lie with Europe and it would be better for Scotland not to be tied to a country where sentiment is considerably more negative towards the EU.

[1] McLean, Christopher, ‘Scots want EU referendum but would vote to stay in’, Ipsos MORI, 14 February 2013, http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3131/Scots-want-EU-referendum-but-would-vote-to-stay-in.aspx

[2] Social Research Institute, ‘British public split on our future with the European Union’, Ipsos MORI, 15 November 2012, http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3075/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-November-2012.aspx

[3] BBC News, ‘National Results’, Election 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

[4] BBC News, ‘Scotland elections’, Vote 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/region/html/scotland.stm

[5] BBC News, ‘European Election 2009: UK Results’, Elections 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm

[6] BBC News, ‘European Election 2009: Scotland’, Elections 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_10.stm"
Candidate 6: "An independent Scotland would avoid having a referendum on EU membership

The Scottish National Party (SNP) has said that they would not hold an EU referendum in an independent Scotland. Scotland is [quote=Nicola Sturgeon] regardless of the direction of UK policy - Scotland is strongly committed to continuing within the EU as an independent nation [1] [/quote] A vote for independence would therefore be a vote for a stable relationship with Europe.

Interestingly should Scotland become independent and accede to the EU there would have to be a treaty change to provide for Scottish representation in EU institutions. [2] This could well trigger an EU referendum in the remainder of the UK (rUK) under the 'referendum lock'.

[1] Sturgeon, Nicola, ‘Scotland’s Relationship with Europe’, The Scottish Government, 26 February 2013, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/scot-europe-sturgon-26022013 §9

[2] Avery, Graham, ‘HC 643 The foreign policy implications of and for a separate Scotland, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, 24 September 2012, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmfaff/writev/643/m05.htm point 6."

The Scottish Government claims that an independent Scotland would be able to join the EU with all the UK's various opt outs intact. Scotland indeed could not be forced to join the Euro because in order to do so it would have to demonstrate currency convergence for at least two years which the newly independent state obviously would not be in a position to do. [1] Therefore if Scotland retained UK opt outs there would be only a positive change in relationship with Scotland receiving greater representation in EU institutions through having its own seat in the Council of Ministers, possibly its own Commissioner, and also a reallocation of European Parliamentary constituencies that would increase its representation there (and paradoxically increase rUK representation as well). [2]

[1] Noon, Stephen, ‘Euro membership’, 10 November 2011, http://stephennoon.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/euro-membership.html

[2] Engel, Arno, and Parkes, Roderick, ‘Accommodating an independent Scotland: how a British-style constitution for the EU could secure Scotland’s future’, European Policy Centre, 24 October 2012, http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_3017_scotland_s_future.pdf p.7
