The scenario planning methodology allows decision makers to envision a future context in which important actions and decisions take place. It examines factors that impact the environment in which strategic decisions are made and provides a framework that allows decision makers to anticipate the consequences of alternative courses of action. The valuable insights gained from scenario planning provides policymakers the tools needed to make sound decisions in the present context that will yield favorable results regardless of what the future holds.36 Scenario planning prepares decision makers to act with certainty today, despite the uncertainties of tomorrow. This research paper will use the scenario-planning process to portray US multilateral engagement solutions across an array of alternative futures to uncover the positive benefits of multilateral engagement in each possible future scenario. Where appropriate, it will also identify possible negative implications of both policy alternatives. The US foreign policy background analysis presented earlier provides a foundation that will guide strategy choices for each scenario. This research examines opportunities and challenges of alternative futures that may confront policymakers in an unpredictable global context to expose possible benefits of a future multilateral foreign policy strategy. The results of this study will help to guide future national security strategy to the best possible course for future foreign policy engagement regardless of changes in the international system. By examining US attitude toward multilateralism, reviewing historic US foreign policy strategy and engagement, and assessing the benefits and costs of unilateral and multilateral policy engagement international, this research will bring to light an important issue with major impact on national security and the status of American 11 hegemony. The scenario-planning process goes one step farther by building a case for multilateralism in future US foreign policy engagement. Scenario Planning Process Scenario planning has a process that allows policymakers to examine a range of possible futures and prepare a course of action for all possibilities. This process accounts for otherwise unforeseen events, and conveys the effects of policy choices. Simulating policy choices in a range of possible futures allows policymakers to select the particular actions that yield the best outcome.37 In The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Peter Schwartz describes eight steps to developing scenarios which provide the construct for this study (see Table 1.):
scenario planning allows decision makers to envision a future context in which important actions and decisions take place examines factors that impact the environment in which strategic decisions are made and provides a framework that allows decision makers to anticipate the consequences of alternative courses of action The valuable insights gained provides policymakers the tools needed to make sound decisions in the present context that will yield favorable results regardless of what the future holds Scenario planning prepares decision makers to act with certainty today, despite the uncertainties of tomorrow. results will help to guide future national security strategy to the best possible course for future foreign policy engagement regardless of changes in the international system By examining US attitude toward multilateralism, reviewing historic US foreign policy strategy and engagement, and assessing the benefits and costs of unilateral and multilateral policy engagement international, this research will bring to light an important issue with major impact on national security and the status of American 11 hegemony Scenario planning allows policymakers to examine a range of possible futures and prepare a course of action for all possibilities This process accounts for otherwise unforeseen events, and conveys the effects of policy choices. mulating policy choices in a range of possible futures allows policymakers to select the particular actions that yield the best outcome