The Australian Department of Defence predicted in 2006 that "Success" would reach the end of her useful operational lifespan sometime between 2015 and 2017. Following her double-hull refit, this was extended to the early 2020s, with the decision on the replacement vessel (acquisition project SEA 1654 Phase 3) to be made between 2016 and 2018, and the new ship in service by 2023. The 2013 Defence White Paper stated that the replacement of "Success" and would be brought forward. As well as building replacement vessels (either in Australia, overseas, or a combination), leasing existing vessels was also to be considered.