in December 2009, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimated that there would be a public spending shortfall of £36 billion in the three years from 2011with £15 billion of the cuts needed yet to be identified. The country's leading economic think tank forecast that with spending on health and education protected, defence, housing, transport and higher education would be the most likely areas to be cut. The IFS also estimated that the cost to each family of paying back the national debt would be £2,400 a year for eight years. On 11 December, the BBC reported that the Treasury had wanted a tougher approach to public spending to lend credibility to its plan to cut the deficit, but that Brown had over-ruled it following an aggressive campaign for a real-terms increase in education spending by Schools Minister Ed Balls. Brown said the report was "completely wrong".