The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a moderate risk of severe weather for April 2, with the main risks being tornadoes and large hail. The primary risk area was the central Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley up to central Illinois, where most of the tornadoes touched down. Many tornado watches – if not any PDS watches – were issued across the region. While a significant severe weather event was expected, the extreme nature caught many forecasters by surprise, based on the risk levels and the probabilities estimated by the SPC in the area primarily affected.