Kennett's personal popularity was mostly average to high through his first term, though that of the government as a whole went through peaks and troughs. Without a by-election in the previous four years, the 1996 state election shaped up as the first test of the 'Kennett Revolution' with the electorate. The Coalition was expected to win a second term at the 30 March election, albeit with a somewhat reduced majority. At the federal election held four weeks earlier, while Labor was heavily defeated, it actually picked up a swing in Victoria.