After passing north of Havana, Cuba, Elena emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. At 12:00 UTC on August 29, Elena intensified into a Category 1 hurricane. Analysis of steering currents through the morning of August 30 suggested that Elena would continue on its northwestward track, striking the area between New Orleans, Louisiana, and Biloxi, Mississippi within 30 hours. Unexpectedly, a mid-to-upper-level trough of low pressure diving in from the northwest created a weakness in the easterly currents, allowing Elena to recurve and slow drastically in forward speed. Roughly 24 hours after attaining hurricane intensity, the storm abruptly turned east in response to the trough. Having defied initial forecasts, Hurricane Elena drifted on its new course toward the coast of northwest Florida. Forecasters now called for the trough to direct the hurricane across the Florida Peninsula and into the western Atlantic. However, the relatively weak trough moved rapidly, and instead of fully engaging Elena, its axis passed over the storm's center. Further, post-storm analysis of water vapor imagery suggested that the hurricane split the trough into two distinct segments.