In 1981, the Edmonton economist Scarfe argued that the greatest impact of the NEP was its failure to deliver the revenues that had been originally forecast in the 1980 federal budget. Introduced by Finance Minister Allan MacEachen, it projected a reduction of federal deficits from $14.2 billion in 1980 to $11.8 billion in fiscal 1984, primarily from substantial increases in revenues from the oil and gas sector, and the maintenance of expenditures. Scarfe speculated that the NEP would discourage large-scale oil investment projects and thus reduce these projected revenues. Federal deficits had been expected to decrease, primarily by substantial increases in revenues from oil and gas. Instead, by 1983, the Ministry of Finance had concluded that the federal government had established a structural deficit of $29.7 billion, an increase from 3.5% of GNP in 1980 to 6.2% of GNP in 1983.