The economic downturn of the late 1980s, and accompanying high interest rates, saw the Government fall in opinion polls, with many doubting that Hawke could win a fourth election. Paul Keating, who had long understood that he would eventually succeed Hawke as Prime Minister, began to plan a leadership change; at the end of 1988, Keating put pressure on Hawke to retire in the new year. Hawke rejected this suggestion but reached a secret agreement with Keating, the so-called "Kirribilli Agreement", stating that he would step down in Keating's favour at some point after the 1990 election. Hawke subsequently won that election, in the process leading Labor to a record fourth consecutive electoral victory, albeit by a slim margin. Hawke appointed Keating Deputy Prime Minister to replace the retiring Lionel Bowen.