Bailey authored a number of articles in the 1930s that indicated the historical techniques he would use throughout his career. While not groundbreaking, they remain noteworthy for the care with which Bailey systematically overturned received myths about U.S. diplomatic history by a careful reexamination of the underlying sources. His first book was a study of the diplomatic crisis between the United States and Japan during the Theodore Roosevelt administration over racial issues. He delivered the Albert Shaw Lectures on Diplomatic History at Johns Hopkins on the Wilson administration's policy towards neutrals in 1917-1918, later published in 1942. While the theme of the impact of public opinion on the making of foreign policy was a theme through most of his works, he laid it out most clearly in "The Man in the Street", published in 1948.