Jones held Ashgrove with a margin of 7.1 points, making it a "fairly safe" Labor seat, on paper. However, according to Australian Broadcasting Corporation elections analyst Antony Green, Newman carried The Gap ward, which contains the bulk of Ashgrove (Brisbane City Council wards are almost as large as state electorates), with 56 per cent of the two-party vote in 2004 and almost 70 per cent in 2008. According to Green, if Newman repeated his past performance in The Gap, he would be able to take Ashgrove off Labor.