It was generally believed at the time that the Central Council's decision to preselect Carney for Araluen all but assured her a seat in parliament. Historically, Araluen had been a reasonably safe seat for the Country Liberal Party, and Labor had never come close to winning it. Longtime CLP MP Eric Poole held the seat with a seemingly insurmountable majority of 19.2 percent. However, Carney faced a significant challenge not only from Labor, but two well-known independents. The CLP lost over 27 percent of its primary vote from 1997, but Carney ultimately won by 134 votes.