Due to the loss of Ukraine's largest trading partner, Russia, over the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, and exacerbated by the War in Donbass which started in April 2014 Ukraine's economy shrank by 6.8% in 2014; it had been expected to decline by 8%. A Ukrainian government report stated early in February 2016 that Ukraine's economy had shrunk by 10.4% in 2015. For 2015 the National Bank of Ukraine had expected a further decline of 11.6%, and the World Bank anticipated a 12% shrinkage. The World Bank forecast growth of 1% in 2016.