council opinion march updat stabil programm spain council european union regard treati establish european commun regard council regul ec juli strengthen surveil budgetari posit surveil coordin econom polici articl thereof regard recommend commiss consult econom financi committe deliv opinion march council examin updat stabil programm spain cover period programm compli data requir quot code conduct content format stabil converg programm quot updat programm present week decemb deadlin set code conduct macroeconom scenario underli programm envisag real gdp growth pick averag rest programm period basi inform scenario reflect favour growth assumpt updat consid quot moder scenario quot project annual gdp growth baselin scenario consid optimist moder growth scenario low side programm project inflat base gdp deflat realist remain high pose risk competit updat gener principl guid fiscal polici budgetari stabil full econom cycl gener principl lead budgetari deficit event cyclic slowdown updat target deficit posit temporari deficit record reflect impact account adjust updat target small rise surplus gdp gdp end project period interest payment expect decreas slightli programm period primari surplu project remain fairli stabl gdp target gener govern balanc broadli previou updat target primari surplus slightli ambiti reflect higher interest payment project updat base trend gdp calcul commiss servic project growth rate updat net effect account adjust cyclic adjust budget balanc remain gdp programm period risk budgetari project programm broadli balanc growth assumpt favour risk sizeabl deviat programm object appear limit view risk assess budgetari stanc programm suffici maintain stabil growth pact medium term object posit close balanc programm period temporari deviat relat account adjust suffici safeti margin breach gdp deficit threshold normal macroeconom fluctuat period cover updat debt ratio estim declin gdp gdp treati refer programm project debt ratio declin percentag point programm period account primari surplus gdp budgetari strategi outlin programm put spain favour posit regard long term sustain public financ spite project budgetari cost ag popul risk surround long term expenditur project larg increas pension expenditur project long term current polici supplement measur prevent emerg unsustain trend public financ long run comprehens reform pension system line recommend multi partisan agreement quot pacto de toledo quot econom polici outlin updat partli consist countri specif broad econom polici guidelin area public financ recommend reform public pension system ensur long term viabil system implement view assess council opinion spain adopt measur prevent emerg unsustain trend public financ long run major reform pension system comparison kei macroeconom budgetari project stabil programm sp commiss servic autumn econom forecast commiss servic calcul real gdp chang sp dec oct sp jan hicp inflat sp dec oct sp jan gener govern balanc gdp sp dec oct sp jan primari balanc gdp sp dec oct sp jan cyclic adjust balanc gdp sp dec oct sp jan govern gross debt gdp sp dec oct sp jan oj commonli agre methodolog base product function approach appli spain pend resolut estim problem cyclic adjust balanc calcul base hodrick prescott filter methodolog