council opinion march updat stabil programm portug council european union regard treati establish european commun regard council regul ec juli strengthen surveil budgetari posit surveil coordin econom polici articl thereof regard recommend commiss consult econom financi committe deliv opinion march council examin updat stabil programm portug cover period averag year period accompani pro cyclic fiscal expans portugues econom growth declin significantli year lag euro area averag gdp capita purchas power term expect fallen area averag advers cyclic influenc abroad subdu perform reflect weak competit posit explain sizeabl extern deficit low potenti growth fiscal posit weak turn decad persist high structur deficit septemb council decid portug excess deficit council recommend articl date excess deficit correct expiri month period foreseen recommend commiss due carri assess action portugues author order achiev deficit target opinion juli previou updat stabil programm cover period council invit portug limit deterior fiscal posit achiev sustain correct excess deficit take substanti step bring gross debt ratio firm downward path control evolut expenditur improv qualiti ensur long term sustain public financ improv process gener govern data gener govern deficit estim reach gdp commiss servic autumn forecast target gdp set previou updat june small differ due upward revis gdp seri addit increas expenditur sharp deterior previou year larg due govern longer rais revenu sizeabl measur programm compulsori data requir stabil converg programm code conduct deviat materi point model structur macroeconom scenario present updat project real gdp growth pick programm period eventu growth assum driven domest demand export extern contribut expect close neutral programm period neg output gap foreseen narrow gdp programm horizon assess inform programm growth assumpt favour outer year programm inflationari pressur foreseen remain low risk end programm period larg extern deficit expect remain broadli unchang programm aim last correct larg fiscal imbal reduc gener govern deficit gdp refer year pursu fiscal consolid envisag consolid public financ place back structur measur substanti step year widen gdp gener govern deficit target declin gdp gdp project time profil primari balanc similar improv deficit gdp surplu gdp fiscal adjust help revenu expenditur side short term consolid reli addit revenu gener higher tax rate improv tax collect expenditur restraint extend major primari expenditur categori expect support fiscal consolid progress manner period sizeabl save public administr includ personnel social protect scheme compar previou updat decemb updat stabil programm larg confirm plan adjust lower growth assumpt favour inform programm period structur balanc cyclic adjust balanc net temporari measur calcul commiss servic basi inform programm commonli agre methodolog plan improv percentag point tight fiscal stanc foreseen prevail entir programm period front load structur deficit target move gdp gdp gdp plan fiscal effort project place backdrop narrow neg output gap programm identifi medium term object mto budgetari posit meant stabil growth pact quot gdp quot aim achiev programm period programm mto demand minimum benchmark estim deficit gdp achiev fulfil aim provid safeti margin occurr excess deficit programm mto level current assess li rang euro area erm ii member state stabil growth pact code conduct adequ reflect debt ratio averag potenti output growth long term budgetari outcom wors project programm programm assumpt tax intens econom activ broadli plausibl growth outlook underpin budgetari target favour outer year updat outlin ambiti medium term plan curb expenditur growth measur recent enact import measur relat strategi defin implement public administr expect yield substanti save onward full implement crucial attain budgetari target final programm outlin measur improv framework budgetari execut control properli implement expect contribut achiev budgetari object take account balanc risk correct excess deficit deadlin set council hing effect implement measur announc programm substanti correct measur provid risk budgetari target highlight duli address pace adjust programm mto fulli line stabil growth pact mto achiev end programm period provid suffici safeti margin breach gdp deficit threshold normal macroeconom fluctuat year plan correct excess deficit requir risk budgetari target properli address debt ratio estim reach gdp gdp treati refer programm project debt ratio increas gdp declin slightli gdp evolut debt ratio favour project programm risk budgetari target mention uncertainti stock flow adjust lower expect econom growth view risk assess ensur attain budgetari target programm achiev suffici diminish debt ratio refer regard sustain public financ portug appear high risk ground project budgetari cost ag popul high level gross debt weak budgetari posit necess implement rigor plan consolid public financ medium term ensur attain budgetari target order reduc risk public financ sustain project increas pension health care expenditur project period necess comprehens strategi deal challeng pose ag popul improv weak budgetari posit ongo introduct pension health care system make system sustain reform requir curb project growth ag relat expenditur envisag measur area public financ broadli consist broad econom polici guidelin includ integr guidelin period aim correct excess deficit structur council recommend articl septemb outlin fiscal polici expect contribut correct extern deficit note plan evolut govern debt half programm period repres deviat expect guidelin nation reform programm portug submit octob context renew lisbon strategi growth job identifi challeng area public financ enhanc econom growth promot sustain public financ ii reform public administr measur envisag stabil programm line action foreseen nation reform programm area public financ fact nrp fulli board substanc june updat recent updat stabil programm confirm strategi spell budgetari implic action outlin nation reform programm polici area view assess council note programm broadli consist correct excess deficit subject full implement measur announc programm reinforc year accommod downward risk budgetari target light recommend articl septemb council invit portug adopt implement rigour structur measur envisag programm order ensur correct excess deficit credibl sustain manner ensur continu adjust mto excess deficit correct line sgp requir creat margin deal budgetari impact lower project econom growth ii enact decis plan measur control expenditur improv budgetari process level gener govern possibl extens bind expenditur ceil outlin programm strengthen mechan monitor control report expenditur revenu iii improv long term sustain public financ implement measur envisag programm enact reform area pension health care iv bring govern gross debt ratio firm downward path ensur reflect progress reduct govern deficit project privatis proce carefulli impact debt major public invest project includ partnership privat sector comparison kei macroeconom budgetari project note sourc stabil programm sp commiss servic autumn econom forecast commiss servic calcul real gdp chang sp dec nov sp jun hicp inflat sp dec nov sp jun output gap potenti gdp sp dec nov sp jun gener govern balanc gdp sp dec nov sp jun primari balanc gdp sp dec nov sp jun cyclic adjust balanc gdp sp dec nov sp jun structur balanc gdp sp dec nov sp jun govern gross debt gdp sp dec nov sp jun oj regul amend regul ec oj document refer text found websit http europa eu int comm economi financ activ sgp main en htm programm follow model structur code conduct present section summari econom budgetari backdrop econom budgetari outlook sustain public financ programm compulsori data option data prescrib code conduct commiss servic calcul basi inform programm cyclic adjust balanc previou row exclud temporari measur temporari measur programm temporari measur commiss servic autumn forecast gdp gdp gdp gdp deficit reduc oper june programm gdp gdp deficit reduc base estim potenti growth period privat consumpt deflat