council opinion februari updat converg programm estonia council european union regard treati establish european commun regard council regul ec juli strengthen surveil budgetari posit surveil coordin econom polici articl thereof regard recommend commiss consult econom financi committe deliv opinion februari council examin updat converg programm estonia cover period reap earli benefit bold reform stabilis effort mid estonia wake russian crisi suffer temporari setback slack growth ow comprehens structur reform financi enterpris sector increas economi respons market forc intern open growth quickli resum past decad real annual gdp growth averag outpac eu averag high extern deficit gdp constitut major macroeconom imbal budgetari develop mark prudent fiscal stanc result healthi fiscal surplus opinion februari council endors budgetari strategi present previou updat converg programm cover period budgetari implement gener govern surplu estim gdp commiss servic autumn forecast target balanc budget set previou updat converg programm due combin high growth improv tax collect lower plan expenditur actual surplu turn stronger gdp updat programm broadli model structur data provis requir stabil converg programm code conduct macroeconom scenario underli programm envisag real gdp growth edg level averag rest programm period assess inform scenario appear base markedli cautiou growth assumpt base commiss servic calcul basi programm commonli agre methodolog potenti gdp growth project remain high slightli declin trend medium term cautiou outlook real gdp growth lead neg output gap programm period commiss servic autumn forecast show posit output gap programm inflat project low side take account high sensit inflat rate oil price develop programm project line commiss forecast medium term budgetari framework estonia gear maintain sound public financ context sustain high growth rise employ programm aim gener govern account remain balanc surplus gdp primari balanc insignificantli higher neglig interest burden project gener govern surplu target slightli higher previou updat reflect partli expect outcom surplu gdp ow buoyant econom growth improv tax collect expenditur revenu ratio project declin gradual programm horizon compar previou programm updat decemb updat broadli confirm plan fiscal strategi annual balanc budget consider favour macroeconom scenario programm period structur surplu cyclic adjust balanc net temporari measur calcul commonli agre methodolog plan declin averag gdp year programm set medium term object mto budgetari posit balanc budget structur term plan maintain structur balanc satisfi programm mto programm period programm mto demand minimum benchmark estim structur deficit gdp achiev fulfil aim provid safeti margin occurr excess deficit appropri programm mto li rang euro area erm ii member state stabil growth pact code conduct demand impli debt ratio averag potenti output growth long term budgetari outcom prove significantli project programm underli econom outlook markedli cautiou estonia confirm record perform fiscal target warrant percept balanc risk skew posit side view risk assess budgetari strategi suffici achiev budgetari posit structur term consid pact programm period addit budgetari stanc programm suffici safeti margin breach gdp deficit threshold normal macroeconom fluctuat programm period take account likelihood project outturn budgetari surplu higher gdp carri risk pro cyclic quot good time quot debt ratio estim gdp end gdp treati refer lowest eu programm project debt ratio declin percentag point programm period regard sustain public financ estonia appear low risk ground project budgetari cost ag popul level gross debt low project remain refer project period estonia strategi put sustain concern heart fiscal polici make includ pension system reform involv accumul asset contribut posit outlook public financ current budgetari posit surplu contribut limit project budgetari impact ag popul medium term budgetari plan maintain balanc budget consist low risk public financ sustain envisag measur area public financ broadli consist broad econom polici guidelin includ integr guidelin period larg govern surplus contribut signific narrow extern account deficit gdp prudent fiscal polici defin cornerston estonian polici mix programm period notabl view support declin extern deficit sustain level updat present measur promot growth employ orient alloc resourc reduc size public sector economi shift tax burden direct indirect taxat nation reform programm estonia submit octob context renew lisbon strategi growth job identifi challeng signific implic public financ sustain public financ ii fiscal polici support growth job iii ensur stabl macroeconom environ budgetari implic action outlin nation reform programm fulli reflect budgetari project converg programm measur area public financ envisag converg programm line action foreseen nation reform programm converg programm outlin measur complet pension reform increas consumpt environ tax reduc tax labour systemat shift budget resourc invest promot amp vocat train converg programm complement measur institut arrang public financ complet base budget system connect line ministri scrutini ministri financ formalis strateg plan process legisl improv financi manag local govern level view assess council note budgetari posit sound budgetari strategi good fiscal polici conduct complianc pact council view budgetari outturn significantli estim programm avoid pro cyclic polici invit estonia aim higher budgetari surplu subsequ year order continu support correct extern imbal comparison kei macroeconom budgetari project note sourc converg programm cp commiss servic autumn econom forecast commiss servic calcul real gdp chang cp dec nov cp nov hicp inflat cp dec nov cp dec output gap potenti gdp cp dec nov cp dec gener govern balanc gdp cp dec nov cp dec primari balanc gdp cp dec nov cp dec cyclic adjust balanc structur balanc gdp cp dec nov cp dec govern gross debt gdp cp dec nov cp dec oj regul amend regul ec oj document refer text found websit http europa eu int comm economi financ activ sgp main en htm programm compulsori option data prescrib code conduct detail long term sustain provid technic assess programm commiss servic http europa eu int comm economi financ activ sgp main en htm decemb updat converg programm discuss nation cpi definit hicp discrep neglig commiss servic calcul basi inform programm base estim potenti growth period temporari measur programm cyclic adjust balanc structur balanc ident