council opinion februari updat converg programm estonia council european union regard treati establish european commun regard council regul ec juli strengthen surveil budgetari posit surveil coordin econom polici articl thereof regard recommend commiss consult econom financi committe deliv opinion februari council examin updat converg programm estonia cover period programm compli data requir revis quot code conduct content format stabil converg programm quot macroeconom scenario underli programm envisag real gdp growth pick averag rest programm period basi inform scenario reflect plausibl growth assumpt programm project inflat realist estonia aim achiev budgetari posit close balanc small surplu programm period programm target budget surplu gdp higher surplu plan programm onward balanc budget envisag case previou programm public invest foreseen increas percentag point gdp declin remain eu averag gdp risk budgetari project programm broadli balanc hand cautiou macroeconom scenario suggest revenu higher expenditur lower budget estonia establish track record prudent forecast repeat overshoot fiscal target past year hand unexpect revenu shortfal plan tax cut advers impact growth exogen shock exclud altogeth balanc risk budgetari stanc programm adequ maintain stabil growth pact medium term object posit close balanc entir programm period provid suffici safeti margin breach gdp deficit threshold normal macroeconom fluctuat debt ratio estim gdp gdp treati refer lowest eu programm project debt ratio declin percentag point programm period estonia appear favour posit regard long term sustain public financ import project budgetari cost ag popul low govern debt level consider govern financi reserv medium term budgetari strategi fulli consist object close balanc surplu budgetari posit credibl reform pension health care system meant stem budgetari pressur longer term ensur public financ remain sustain foot econom polici outlin updat broadli consist countri specif broad econom polici guidelin area public financ higher project budget surplu line recommend avoid pro cyclic fiscal polici extern account deficit narrow significantli rapid run budget surplu provid insuffici support fiscal polici stanc correct extern imbal real gdp chang cp dec oct cp hicp inflat cp dec oct cp gener govern balanc gdp cp dec oct cp primari balanc gdp cp dec oct cp govern gross debt gdp cp dec oct cp oj