council opinion march updat converg programm unit kingdom council european union regard treati establish european commun regard council regul ec juli strengthen surveil budgetari posit surveil coordin econom polici articl thereof regard recommend commiss consult econom financi committe deliv opinion march council examin updat converg programm unit kingdom cover period decad unit kingdom macroeconom perform impress term improv stabil growth low inflat labour market outturn annual real gdp growth averag period fiscal consolid gener govern balanc move deficit gdp comfort surplu unit kingdom implement plan larg increas public expenditur includ public invest gener govern balanc chang deficit gdp gross debt declin gdp gdp slowli grow path opinion march previou updat converg programm council invit unit kingdom ensur deficit gdp improv cyclic adjust posit ensur budgetari posit close balanc surplu achiev medium term januari take consider inform contain updat converg programm council decid unit kingdom deficit excess council recommend articl date excess deficit correct financi year expiri month period foreseen recommend commiss due carri assess progress made unit kingdom author correct excess deficit budgetari implement gener govern deficit estim gdp commiss servic autumn forecast project gdp set previou updat converg programm higher expect deficit due lower expect gdp growth estim compar previou updat base effect stem lower expect outturn tax receipt lesser extent slight discretionari eas programm broadli model structur deviat materi point data provis requir stabil converg programm code conduct macroeconom scenario underli budgetari project envisag real gdp growth pick dip assess inform scenario appear base broadli plausibl growth assumpt margin caution end project horizon programm project inflat realist updat programm project reduct deficit gdp financi year refer deficit project declin level gdp gener govern primari balanc estim deficit gdp return balanc reach surplu gdp improv nomin balanc driven pick revenu partli due project cyclic recoveri economi partli increas tax gdp ratio updat programm forese small discretionari fiscal tighten expect perman expenditur ratio project increas driven plan increas expenditur public servic public invest net public sector invest includ capit grant privat sector plan rise gdp gdp remain constant percentag gdp current expenditur growth plan slow significantli deficit project fund public invest compar updat deficit project revis upward line econom develop medium term converg profil previou updat calcul commonli agre methodolog programm envisag averag annual improv structur balanc cyclic adjust term net temporari measur percentag point gdp estim structur deficit gdp adjust front load excess deficit plan correct neg output gap widest slow neg output gap narrow quantit medium term object mto structur balanc gener govern programm refer fiscal object domest rule impli medium term path cyclic adjust deficit consist stabilis debt gdp ratio low level keep current budget balanc surplu averag econom cycl budgetari outcom wors project programm short term project recoveri tax gdp ratio corpor tax revenu present risk extent depend assumpt posit develop financi sector continu year subsequ revers expenditur side project rise programm updat project fall expenditur ratio level challeng exist polici commit reduc expenditur gdp ratio impli significantli slower current expenditur growth mark area comprehens reassess public expenditur plan comprehens spend review identifi area public expenditur growth reduc neg risk partli offset princip revenu side project econom growth margin caution regard correct excess deficit programm publish council recommend articl project deficit drop refer commiss servic estim time council recommend discretionari measur announc decemb pre budget report deficit remain slightli progress correct excess deficit assess commiss expiri month deadlin basi minimum benchmark estim cyclic adjust deficit gdp budgetari strategi possibl end programm period provid suffici safeti margin breach normal macroeconom fluctuat gdp refer uk oblig endeavour avoid project balanc affect implement programm public invest mention plan correct excess deficit project structur adjust slow output gap remain neg set narrow develop tax elast favour suggest adjust path strengthen gross debt ratio remain treati refer gdp project slowli rise project period peak gdp level debt ratio expect declin slightli regard sustain public financ combin increas cost ag possibl insuffici provis privat pension increas fiscal cost put unit kingdom medium risk made improv fiscal sustain period contain rise public pension expenditur project higher ag relat expenditur pressur exclud possibl insuffici provis privat pension pension polici review govern respons novemb pension commiss report expect spring year favour debt posit contribut limit budgetari impact ag popul gross debt project gdp refer project period compar structur budgetari posit budgetari consolid take place programm period improv structur balanc govern financ medium term contribut reduc risk public financ sustain envisag measur area public financ broadli consist broad econom polici guidelin includ integr guidelin period current level govern debt ratio low deficit excess remain correct consolid requir stabilis debt ratio gener pension provis review order ensur access financi viabil social adequaci programm envisag measur improv qualiti public financ includ drive improv effect public expenditur asset manag reloc civil servic posit reduct public sector workforc headcount nation reform programm unit kingdom submit octob context renew lisbon strategi growth job identifi challeng signific implic public financ maintain fiscal sustain face demograph challeng promot innov amp widen opportun acquisit skill ensur fair modern flexibl welfar system increas innov adapt resourc budgetari implic action outlin nation reform programm fulli reflect budgetari project converg programm measur area public financ envisag converg programm broadli line action foreseen nation reform programm view assess council note project adjust path subject risk light recommend articl order address risk long term sustain council invit unit kingdom ensur deficit brought gdp credibl sustain manner pursu budgetari consolid implement project reduct expenditur growth ii attain medium term object ensur rapid progress sustain prudent debt ratio gdp suffici safeti margin breach gdp deficit refer uk oblig endeavour avoid room budgetari manoeuvr take account public invest comparison kei macroeconom budgetari project note sourc converg programm cp commiss servic calcul commiss servic autumn forecast real gdp chang cp dec nov cp dec hicp inflat cp dec nov cp dec output gap potenti gdp cp dec nov cp dec gener govern balanc gdp cp dec nov cp dec primari balanc gdp cp dec nov cp dec cyclic adjust balanc structur balanc gdp cp dec nov cp dec govern gross debt gdp cp dec nov cp dec oj regul amend regul ec oj document refer text found websit http europa eu int comm economi financ activ sgp main en htm uk financi year run april march section institut featur public financ miss programm gap provis compulsori data forecast employ unemploy compens employe breakdown expenditur year requir provid provid option data data gener govern expenditur receipt base esa compon aggreg method harmonis measur programm updat continu uk practic account receipt sale umt licenc annual incom stream sale asset contrari eurostat decis juli alloc receipt number data gap fill bilater discuss commiss servic uk offici detail long term sustain provid technic assess programm commiss servic http europa eu int comm economi financ activ sgp main en htm gdp inflat forecast underli author project public financ deriv scenario trend growth quarter percentag point higher commiss servic forecast calendar year basi estim growth commiss servic interim forecast februari project growth output gap calcul commonli agre methodolog basi data provid converg programm output gap calcul base data underli central trend growth scenario uk methodolog yield output gap profil commiss servic calcul output gap calendar year basi figur converg programm adjust treatment umt receipt uk author includ project gener govern balanc annual receipt billion sale umt licenc adjust bring project edp basi effect subtract pp balanc increas deficit year data shown tabl adjust made commiss servic data programm commiss servic forecast discretionari measur announc decemb pre budget report includ converg programm ad net impact measur estim uk author commiss servic forecast deficit gdp data converg programm adapt line definit primari balanc gross net interest payment cyclic adjust balanc calcul commonli agre methodolog exclud off temporari measur figur cyclic adjust structur balanc publish programm calcul uk methodolog base nomin balanc correct treatment umt receipt gdp off temporari measur converg programm project commiss servic forecast