council opinion march updat converg programm cypru council european union regard treati establish european commun regard council regul ec juli strengthen surveil budgetari posit surveil coordin econom polici articl thereof regard recommend commiss consult econom financi committe deliv opinion march council examin updat converg programm cypru cover period programm compli data requir revis quot code conduct content format stabil converg programm quot programm scenario macroeconom budgetari project quot central quot scenario quot upper quot scenario quot lower quot scenario quot higher interest rate quot scenario call quot central quot scenario consid refer scenario assess budgetari project basi inform reflect plausibl growth assumpt project real gdp growth pick averag rest programm period programm project inflat realist juli council decid excess deficit exist cypru recommend correct updat aim reduc govern deficit gdp refer line council recommend articl compar converg programm updat maintain deficit target sharpen target forese gener govern deficit sharpli declin gdp declin gradual interest expenditur project remain constant gdp path primari balanc similar balanc improv end programm period end updat envisag seri structur measur restrain expenditur increas revenu expenditur limit contribut percentag point deficit reduct percentag point gdp period adjust path reflect govern commit improv public financ intent earli adopt euro main factor frontload fiscal adjust reduc gener govern budget deficit percentag point gdp risk budgetari project updat broadli balanc main downsid macroeconom risk econom outlook eu notabl uk germani main tourist sourc countri tension middl east oil price develop updat plan measur onward quot studi quot leav uncertainti hand estim deficit outcom expect posit result achiev delai number consolid measur origin plan implement budgetari impact prudent consid safeti margin case delai measur target gdp quot upper limit quot time expenditur strict control expenditur overrun main problem past consolid measur emphas structur expenditur control govern consumpt addit plan measur successfulli negoti social partner commiss servic autumn forecast project deficit gdp slightli lower gdp growth forecast year updat reiter quot addit measur quot lower growth risk lead higher deficit facilit adjust gdp plan deficit reduct challeng increasingli feasibl period adjust path slightli tighten reach lower deficit compar previou programm clear tighten achiev plan measur gdp growth path broadli remain adjust path underpin measur perman natur view risk assess budgetari stanc programm suffici reduc deficit gdp provid suffici safeti margin breach threshold normal macroeconom fluctuat onward suffici ensur stabil growth pact medium term object budgetari posit close balanc achiev programm period debt ratio estim reach gdp gdp treati refer programm project debt ratio declin percentag point programm period evolut debt ratio partli driven debt reduc stock flow adjust link gradual phase sink fund accumul earlier led debt increas stock flow adjust cypru present risk regard long term sustain public financ reflect project budgetari cost ag popul strategi outlin updat base budgetari consolid year addit reform pension health care system implement futur imper pursu reform process order reduc sustain risk futur evolut ag relat expenditur plan budgetari consolid medium term econom polici outlin programm broadli consist countri specif broad econom polici guidelin area public financ fiscal consolid programm aim reduc gener govern deficit multi annual framework fiscal consolid measur expenditur revenu side structur natur uncertainti surround implement plan consolid measur deficit object path ambiti implaus view assess light recommend made council articl council opinion cypru implement vigour measur envisag updat converg programm bring deficit gdp ensur measur perman natur budgetari consolid medium term budgetari posit close balanc surplu sustain excess deficit correct ii ensur debt ratio start declin onward iii pursu reform process pension health care system order reduc sustain risk futur evolut ag relat expenditur plan budgetari consolid medium term comparison kei macroeconom budgetari project converg programm cp commiss servic autumn econom forecast commiss servic calcul real gdp chang cp dec nov cp cpi inflat cp dec nov cp gener govern balanc gdp cp dec nov cpmai primari balanc gdp cp dec nov cp govern gross debt gdp cp dec nov cp oj document refer text found websit http europa eu int comm economi financ activ sgp main en htm note futur econom develop cypru remain subject unusu uncertainti case reunif econom situat entir island fundament shift