i said i’m going to increase your chance of getting struck by lightning to 100%.
to work out how much your risk is increased you need to know the risk for the general population. going back to our lightning example, the lifetime chance of getting hit by lightning (in the us) is 1 in 12,000 or 0.00008%. so if i increased your chance by 100% (which is the same as doubling it) your lifetime risk of being hit by lightning would still be only 0.00016%, still a really, really small chance. so it’s always worth knowing what the actual chance of having something happen to you is before worrying about an 