Calaveras Fault 6.5 that occurred in 1911 in the Morgan Hill area. The most recent of these was a magnitude 6.2 earthquake near Morgan Hill in 1984. A magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred on the Calaveras Fault on October 30, 2007 at 20:04 PDT (October 31, at 03:04 UTC), near Alum Rock. Prior to the 2014 South Napa earthquake, it was the most powerful quake to hit the Bay Area since the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, and the largest on the Calaveras Fault since 1984. Although it has been known for some time that the Calaveras and Hayward faults merge in the
1989 Loma Prieta earthquake for the northern San Andreas Fault segment, the San Francisco Peninsula segment, and a portion of that segment which was referred to as the southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment. The thirty year probability for one or more M7 earthquakes in the study area was given as 50%, but because of a lack of information and low confidence, a 30% probability was assigned to the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment. Two moderate shocks, referred to as the Lake Elsman earthquakes by the USGS, occurred in the Santa Cruz Mountains region in June 1988 and again in August 1989. Following each event,