Jim Berkland County Geologist for Santa Clara County from 1973 until he retired in 1994. Berkland's predictions have been either self-published in his newsleter or website, or announced in various interviews or speaking engagements. His notoriety arose from an interview published in the Gilroy Dispatch on October 13, 1989, where he predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0 would occur in the San Francisco Bay Area between October 14 and October 21. The 6.9-magnitude Loma Prieta earthquake occurred on October 17, just four days later. Berkland claims that government officials told him not to make any more predictions,
1989 Loma Prieta earthquake for the northern San Andreas Fault segment, the San Francisco Peninsula segment, and a portion of that segment which was referred to as the southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment. The thirty year probability for one or more M7 earthquakes in the study area was given as 50%, but because of a lack of information and low confidence, a 30% probability was assigned to the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment. Two moderate shocks, referred to as the Lake Elsman earthquakes by the USGS, occurred in the Santa Cruz Mountains region in June 1988 and again in August 1989. Following each event,