Cyclone Nargis people, and the deadliest tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, which killed at least 138,866 people. One aid worker claimed that the death toll from the cyclone and its aftermath might reach 300,000; if correct, Nargis was the second-deadliest cyclone ever and the fifth-deadliest natural disaster of the 20th century, after the 1931 China floods, the 1887 Yellow River flood, the 1556 Shaanxi earthquake, and the 1970 Bhola cyclone in Bangladesh. Myanmar's military leaders did not count the full death toll from Nargis (leaving the area shortly after it hit), and this led to
Cyclone Nargis of 160 km/h (100 mph), and at the same time, the IMD classified the system as a very severe cyclonic storm. Initially, the cyclone was forecast to strike Bangladesh or southeastern India. Subsequently, the cyclone became disorganised and weakened due to subsidence and drier air; as a result, deep convection near the center markedly decreased. At the same time, the storm began a motion to the northeast, around the periphery of a ridge to its southeast. The circulation remained strong despite the diminishing convection, though satellite intensity estimates using the Dvorak technique indicated the cyclone could have weakened to tropical