Pacific Ocean To determine the phase of ENSO, the most recent three-month sea surface temperature average for the area approximately to the southeast of Hawaii is computed, and if the region is more than above or below normal for that period, then an El Niño or La Niña is considered in progress. In the tropical western Pacific, the monsoon and the related wet season during the summer months contrast with dry winds in the winter which blow over the ocean from the Asian landmass. Worldwide, tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer, when the difference between temperatures aloft and sea surface temperatures
History of numerical weather prediction 1971. Efforts to involve sea surface temperature in model initialization began in 1972 due to its role in modulating weather in higher latitudes of the Pacific. A global forecast model is a weather forecasting model which initializes and forecasts the weather throughout the Earth's troposphere. It is a computer program that produces meteorological information for future times at given locations and altitudes. Within any modern model is a set of equations, known as the primitive equations, used to predict the future state of the atmosphere. These equations—along with the ideal gas law—are used to evolve the density, pressure, and potential