Turing test Kurzweil (optimist) about whether a computer will pass a lengthy Turing test by the year 2029. During the Long Now Turing Test, each of three Turing test judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing test candidates (i.e., the computer and the three Turing test human foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews. The bet specifies the conditions in some detail. 1990 marked the fortieth anniversary of the first publication of Turing's "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" paper, and, saw renewed interest in the test. Two significant events occurred in that year:
Turing test plausible by contemporary researchers in artificial intelligence. In a 2008 paper submitted to 19th Midwest Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Science Conference, Dr. Shane T. Mueller predicted a modified Turing test called a "Cognitive Decathlon" could be accomplished within five years. By extrapolating an exponential growth of technology over several decades, futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that Turing test-capable computers would be manufactured in the near future. In 1990, he set the year around 2020. By 2005, he had revised his estimate to 2029. The Long Bet Project Bet Nr. 1 is a wager of $20,000 between Mitch Kapor (pessimist) and Ray