Shipping Forecast in Rockall, Malin, Hebrides, Bailey, and Fair Isle"). This sometimes follows the opposite format (e.g., "There are warnings of gales in all areas except Biscay, Trafalgar and FitzRoy"). The "General Synopsis" follows, giving the position, pressure (in millibars) and track of pressure areas (e.g., "Low, Rockall, 987, deepening rapidly, expected Fair Isle 964 by 0700 tomorrow"). Each area's forecast is then read out. Several areas may be combined into a single forecast where the conditions are expected to be similar. Wind direction is given first, then strength (on the Beaufort scale), followed by precipitation, if any, and (usually) lastly visibility.
Forecast verification Forecast verification Forecast verification is a subfield of the climate, atmospheric and ocean sciences dealing with validating, verifying and determining the predictive power of prognostic model forecasts. Because of the complexity of these models, forecast verification goes a good deal beyond simple measures of statistical association or mean error calculations. To determine the value of a forecast, we need to measure it against some baseline, or minimally accurate forecast. There are many types of forecast that, while producing impressive-looking skill scores, are nonetheless naive. A "persistence" forecast can still rival even those of the most sophisticated models. An example is: