History of smallpox centuries, the WHO certified the global eradication of smallpox in December 1979. Smallpox is one of two infectious diseases to have been eradicated, the other being rinderpest, which was declared eradicated in 2011. It has been suggested that smallpox was a major component of the Plague of Athens that occurred in 430 BCE, during the Peloponnesian Wars, and was described by Thucydides. Galen's description of the Antonine Plague, which swept through the Roman Empire in 165–180, indicates that it was probably caused by smallpox. Returning soldiers brought the disease home with them to Syria and Italy, where it raged for
Human extinction was highly debated in the 19th century in the form of devolution and degeneration. Because human extinction is unprecedented, speculation about the probability of different scenarios is highly subjective. Nick Bostrom argues that it would be "misguided" to assume that the probability of near-term extinction is less than 25% and that it will be "a tall order" for the human race to "get our precautions sufficiently right the first time", given that an existential risk provides no opportunity to learn from failure. A little more optimistically, philosopher John Leslie assigns a 70% chance of humanity surviving the next five centuries,