Colour state other than clouds or low visibility (e.g. ice or other obstructions) then the word BLACK is written in full and placed immediately before the actual colour state (e.g. BLACKWHT). The colour state may be appended to a METAR report. A short period forecast called a "TREND" which covers the following two hours from the observation may also be added, often with reference to the colour state. The following criteria are used to determine the colour state: Colour state Colour states is a system used for quickly showing meteorological conditions. Meteorological colour states are determined by the relevant worst condition from
Structured expert judgment: the classical model Structured expert judgment: the classical model Expert Judgment (EJ) denotes a wide variety of techniques ranging from a single undocumented opinion, through preference surveys, to formal elicitation with external validation of expert probability assessments. Recent books are In the nuclear safety area, Rasmussen formalized EJ by documenting all steps in the expert elicitation process for scientific review. This made visible wide spreads in expert assessments and teed up questions regarding the validation and synthesis of expert judgments. The nuclear safety community later took onboard expert judgment techniques underpinned by external validation . Empirical validation is the hallmark of science, and